The

Pharaoh

Political players in Mubaraks

Egypt
1. The ruling regime

Mubarak, his family, and close collaborators

2. The rent-seeking elite

Successful businessmen, tribal leaders, senior bureaucratic officials

3. The citizenry
4. Others

Muslim Brotherhood, liberal intellectuals, US government

How would you describe these players in terms of the

selectorate theory?

Finding influentials

Many benefits from being an influential

Access to rents

Dobson Example: Sand Contract

Power at the local level

From Mubaraks perspective, determining whom to make

an influential was an important issue

People who were left out might work to overthrow the regime,
especially if they already had some power

The president would like to co-opt those individuals with the capacity
to mobilize people at the local level

But how do you identify these individuals in a country of 80 million?

Competitive elections!

Competitive parliamentary elections were useful for

identifying influentials and distributing rents

Would-be influentials self-identified by running, and showed their

strength by winning

The system (though not the elections) was fair, in the sense that the
rules for allocating rents were transparent

Losers knew that the winners had played under the same rules as
everybody else

Losers had no incentive to try to overthrow the regime > those

with the highest mobilization capacity were already in

The system was self-enforcing: winners gained access to illicit rents,

thus tying their fate to the regimes

Plus, elections helped identify opposition strongholds

Evidence (1): Competitive elections

The regime tried to prevent opposition parties (especially

the Muslim Brotherhood) from winning many seats

Otherwise, the electoral process was decentralized

Candidates from the ruling NDP did not receive any help from the party

Most candidates ran as independents, and affiliated to the NDP later

The elections were certainly not free and fair, but you had to
mobilize people to win

Each candidate had to buy votes (literally) and hire thugs to protect
them (and intimidate opponents)

NDP heavyweight Fathi Sorour characterized parliamentary elections

in Egypt as a survival of the fittest

In 2005, average race cost US$2m. Average congressional race in

2006 US midterms cost US$6m, in a country 35 times as rich

Evidence (2): Benefits from office

Legislators had little influence over policy

Why did people run?

Weekly MP hours with ministers: access to construction/work

permits, pilgrimage visas, export subsidies

Bank loans on easy terms

Parliamentary immunity: coverage to engage in all kind of

shoddy/illegal behavior

Could only be revoked by 2/3 majority

The value of parliamentary immunity

Egyptian legislators were known to engage in all kinds

of shoddy/illegal behaviors

Drug trafficking, Ponzi schemes, importing vehicles without

paying custom duties, no fines for traffic violations

Red Sea ferry tragedy

Boat owned by parliamentarian Mamdouh Ismail sank in 2006

1,000+ dead

Illegal route, overcrowding, authorities initially not informed about

the incident, other ship by same company ordered not to stop and
help

Immunity allowed Ismail to flee. He was sentenced to 7 years and

condemned to pay US$57m, but he was out of the country

Evidence (3): Budget cycles

Common newspaper accounts of campaign spending

and vote buying

State employees received bonuses ahead of elections

Candidates offered cash and food for votes

Statistical evidence

Average calorie consumption: 1% up in election years

Central bank reserves: 4% down in pre-election months

Evidence (4): Punishment by the

regime

Qualitative evidence suggests that opposition voters

were punished

Allocation of (limited) public goods was concentrated

in pro-government strongholds

Governorates where the Muslim Brotherhood did better

in the 1984 election saw a much smaller increase in
water and sewage coverage between 1986 and 1996

Dobson: MB as first responders after 1992

earthquake

Keeping things under control (1)

Elections were also informative about the performance

of local officials

The Muslim Brotherhood did particularly well in the

2005 elections (20% of seats)

Appointed secretaries and governors were more likely

to retain their seats if the MB did not fare well

No increase MB seats: 75% chance of keeping seat

50% increase: 20% chance of keeping seat

Keeping things under control (1)

Keeping things under control (2)

The regime allowed a relatively free press

Any suggestions about why?

Criticizing Mubarak, his family or the military was not allowed, but
reporting on parliamentary corruption was OK

Fire alarm > put a check on worst abuses

High-ranking officials could know who was not paying his cut from corruption
activities

In 2006, parliamentarians attempted to establish prison terms for (a)

insulting top officials (like the president) and (b) reporting on the
financial dealings of any public officials

What would you have done if you were Mubarak?

Yes, Mubarak himself intervened to keep (a) but eliminate (b)

Keeping things under control (2)

The regime allowed a relatively free press

Any suggestions about why?

Criticizing Mubarak, his family or the military was not allowed, but
reporting on parliamentary corruption was OK

Fire alarm > put a check on worst abuses

High-ranking officials could know who was not paying his cut from corruption
activities

In 2006, parliamentarians attempted to establish prison terms for (a)

insulting top officials (like the president) and (b) reporting on the
financial dealings of any public officials

What would you have done if you were Mubarak?

Yes, Mubarak himself intervened to keep (a) but eliminate (b)

Keeping things under control (2)

The regime allowed a relatively free press

Any suggestions about why?

Criticizing Mubarak, his family or the military was not allowed, but
reporting on parliamentary corruption was OK

Fire alarm > put a check on worst abuses

High-ranking officials could know who was not paying his cut from corruption
activities

In 2006, parliamentarians attempted to establish prison terms for (a)

insulting top officials (like the president) and (b) reporting on the
financial dealings of any public officials

What would you have done if you were Mubarak?

Yes, Mubarak himself intervened to keep (a) but eliminate (b)

The problem with liberalization?

As

we learned from selectorate theory, liberalization as

difficult to control

Mubarak allowed criticism (including criticism of his

familys corruption)

Tried to adopt the rhetoric of reform without actually

doing it

The combination helps bring about revolution

Mubarak

keep his W (the military) loyal

didnt have the oil reserves to:

Rise of Gamal Mubarak and associates makes

military resentful (Ezz)

coopt those pushing for an expansion of S

Dobson
When

people taste a freedom, it becomes much harder to

deny it to them later. With the elimination of each red line, the
regime curbed its latitude and room for maneuver.

AKA:

Sham elections are a double-edged sword

Provide
Get

information and a facade of legitimacy

peoples hopes up and then dashes them

11/10

the Muslim Brotherhood loses all 80 seats it had

won in 2005

The

NDP claimed over 90% of the seats

What will the military do next?

They

had the chance to be the founders of the modern

country.
San

Antonio blogger ex-First Lieutenant Sherif Osman

(Officers for the Revolution)

Today,

Egypt exists somewhere between dictatorship and

democracy. As difficult as it is to imagine the country going
back to the authoritarianism of Mubarak, it is by no means
certain what Egypt will become. Because of the dominant
role the military will continue to play, skepticism about the
countrys democratic prospects is certainly warranted.
Dobson

Timeline: 2011

011 February - President Mubarak steps down and hands

ower to the army council.

011 March - Egyptians approve package of constitutional

eforms aimed at paving the way for new elections.

011 April-August - Protests continue in Cairo's Tahrir Square

ver slow pace of political change. Islamist groups come to the
re. Army finally disperses protestors in August.

011 November - Violence in Cairo's Tahrir square as security

rces clash with protesters accusing the military of trying to
eep their grip on power. Prime Minister Essam Sharaf resigns
response to the unrest. Start of parliamentary elections.

011 December - National unity government headed by new

rime Minister Kamal al-Ganzouri takes office.

Timeline: 2012

2012 January - Islamist parties emerge as victors of drawn-out

parliamentary elections

2012 June - Muslim Brotherhood candidate Mohammed Morsi narrowly

wins presidential election.

Court sentences ex-President Mubarak to life in prison for complicity in

the killing of protesters during the 2011 uprising.

2012 November - President Morsi issues a decree stripping the

judiciary of the right to challenge his decisions, but rescinds it in the
face of popular protests.

2012 December - Islamist-dominated constituent assembly approves

draft constitution that boosts the role of Islam and restricts freedom of
speech and assembly. Public approve it in a referendum, prompting
extensive protest by secular opposition leaders, Christians and
women's groups.

Government paralysis weakens the currency and delays a $4.8bn

(3bn) IMF loan.

Timeline: 2013

2013 January - More than 50 people are killed during days of violent street protests.
Army chief Abdul Fattah al-Sisi warns that political strife is pushing the state to the brink
of collapse.

2013 June - President Morsi appoints Islamist allies as regional leaders in 13 of Egypt's
27 governorships. Most controversially he appoints a member of a former Islamist
armed group linked to a massacre of tourists in Luxor in 1997. This prompts protests
and the Luxor governor subsequently resigns.

2013 July - The military removes President Morsi amid mass demonstrations calling on
him to quit. Mr Morsi's supporters in the Muslim Brotherhood reject a timetable for new
elections laid out by interim president Adly Mansour.

2013 August - Hundreds are killed as security forces storm protest camps in Cairo set
up by supporters of Mr Morsi. Human Rights Watch says action may constitute a crime
against humanity.

A court bans Muslim Brotherhood from carrying out any activity in Egypt and orders
confiscation of its assets.

2013 October - Egypt criticises US decision to suspend large part of $1.3bn (810m) in
aid following months of political turmoil.

2013 November - A new law restricts public protests.

2013 December - Government declares Muslim Brotherhood a terrorist group after a

bomb blast in Mansoura kills 12.

Timeline: 2014

2014 January - Egyptians vote in referendum on a new

constitution drafted since the July 2013 overthrow of the
Islamist-led government. The new basic law bans parties
based on religion.

2014 February - Government of Prime Minister Hazem elBeblawi resigns in a surprise move. No reasons are
given.

2014 May - Former army chief Abdul Fattah al-Sisi wins

presidential election.

2014 June - International outcry as three al-Jazeera

journalists are jailed after being found guilty of spreading
false news and supporting the banned Muslim
Brotherhood.

Sources

Blaydes, Lisa. 2011. Elections and Distributive Politics in

Mubaraks Egypt. Cambridge: Cambridge University
Press.