Introduction

nts
Stiftung
Wissenschaft und
Politik
me
German Institute
for International and
Security Affairs
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Co
The EU and Its Neighbours
A Second Chance to Marry Democratisation and Stability Kai-Olaf Lang / Barbara
Lippert
SWP
Times are changing. While the EUs neighbours in the South are on the move, the East is
stagnating or rolling back. The EU is reconsidering its strategy and policy towards its neighbours
and is trying to make a second attempt to marry democratisation and stability in the South and
East. The point of departure is a revision and update of the European Neighbourhood Policy.
Along its eastern and southern peripheries, Tunisia, Egypt, and Libya were good news
the EU shares borders with regions that are in terms of European values, they brought
unsettled and sometimes exhibit precarious into question the traditional mode of copolitical, social, and economic circumoperation also applied by the ENP: In spite stances. To make these adjacent countries
of the declared wish to support change,
consolidated and predictable partners,
ENP South was more about stabilising
the EU has developed the European Neighstates, and thus stabilising regimes. While bourhood Policy (ENP), a framework for enthe EU seems unable to develop transforhanced multidimensional cooperation
mative power in the East, the unexpected
that addresses a variety of countries
opportunity to mould in the South poses
from Morocco to Ukraine and Belarus. After
problems, too. Awareness of this problem
initial hopes that the ENP might serve as
led to a thorough review of the ENP to find catalysts for reform, scepticism emerged as
a new response to a changing neighbourthe outcomes were rather modest, espe-

hood. Part of this process was a commitcially developments in the Eastern Partnerment to reinforce the relevance of compliship countries, where coloured revolutions
ance with EU norms, especially democratic
had sparked hopes for far-reaching change.
reforms. However, the adaptation of the
Following the growing frustration conENP did not establish a primacy of an active cerning developments in Ukraine and Belapolicy of value-based transformation and
rus, the upheavals of the Arab Spring came
risks a continuation of an ENP that comas a positive development. However, wherebines both negligent pragmatism and a
as the antiauthoritarian movements in
lack of effectiveness.
Dr. Kai-Olaf Lang, Deputy Head of SWP Research Division EU Integration SWP
Comments 2
Dr. Barbara Lippert, Director of Research, Executive Board SWP
January 2012
1
Reinvigorating democratic
to pressures from neighbours and some
conditionality: A missed chance?
member states, the substance of this instruThe EU has an overarching goal to make
ment was significantly reduced. Some
its immediate neighbourhoods similar to
Mediterranean member states especially
itself in terms of economic orders, political were bothered that more conditionality
systems, and basic societal and political
would mean fewer funds for partners in the
values. To attain this, they developed a sys-South, which were used to an issue- or
tem of attractive offers within the ENP to
policy-oriented cooperation that did not
benefit partner countries if they met cerprimarily depend on the fulfilment of
tain conditions. The criteria included
democratic standards. Regarding this
reforms of the economy, improvements in
aspect of ENP, traditionally security and
governance, and the acceptance of key
(regime) stability were the guiding prinprinciples and norms, especially the rules
ciples for EU cooperation. Moreover, these
of democracy and the rule of law. Already

objectives were to be reached through

in its May 2004 ENP Strategy Paper, the
interaction with existing political systems European Commission had stipulated that
rather than isolation or punishment. The
the ambition and the pace of development
combination of the rhetoric for democracy
of the EUs relationship with each partner
promotion with the security and migration
country will depend on its degree of comagenda of the EU sent the (wrong) message
mitment to common values, as well as its
that the EU will turn a blind eye to bad
will and capacity to implement agreed
governance and violation of human rights.
priorities. Issues related to foreign and
Also on the eastern flank, the principles
security policy namely the frozen conof democratic conditionality were mitiflicts in Eastern Europe and the Israel-Pales-gated, namely due to the core incentive:
tine conflict were not explicitly addresEnhanced contractual relations, called
sed. Within the ENP framework, compoAssociation Agreements, were made availnents of the CFSP were weak and merely
able to almost all partner countries of the treated as an addendum to the ENP agenda.
Eastern Partnership the multilateral
While democratic conditionality was a corframework that includes partners from
nerstone of the ENPs self-concept from the Eastern Europe and the southern Caucasus,
beginning, the ENP inconsistently rewith authoritarian Belarus being the only
frained from taking up geopolitical issues.
exception. In spite of the EUs clear declar-In practice, a different modus operandi ation
that a sufficient level of progress in appeared. Conditionality was watered
terms of democracy, the rule of law and
down, and when applied, it did not neceshuman rights, and in particular evidence
sarily include the democracy component, at that the electoral legislative framework the
heart of cooperation. Efforts to upgrade and practice are in compliance with inter-the idea of
conditionality were usually
national standards, and full cooperation
quite modest. A telling example of this is
with the Council of Europe, OSCE/ODIHR
the ENP governance facility, an instrument
and UN human rights bodies will be a
which was supposed to be an additional

precondition for starting negotiations and

recognition for efforts concerning good
for deepening relations thereafter (2008
governance and related reforms. This topCommunication on Eastern Partnership),
up of country assistance was to represent
negotiations of Association Agreements
a substantial addition to the baseline
have also been launched with countries
annual allocation and therefore constitute
that have questionable democracy track
a significant political signal (Note of the records
European Commission, Principles for the
The changes in the Arab world would
Implementation of a Governance Facility
seem to pave the way for a new opportunity
under ENPI, February 2008). However, due
for the EU to apply a norm- and value-based SWP Comments 2
January 2012
2
neighbourhood policy. And on paper, the
elections; freedom of association, expresEU carried out a reorientation accordingly.
sion and assembly and a free press and
In its May 2011 review of the ENP, High
media; the rule of law administered by an
Representative Catherine Ashton and the
independent judiciary and right to a fair
Commission promised a new approach
trial; fighting against corruption; security based on stronger differentiation and the
and law enforcement sector reform [inprinciple of more for more. The new ENP
cluding the police] and the establishment
is to provide greater support to partners
of democratic control over armed and
engaged in building deep democracy (Joint security forces (Joint Communication on
Communication by the High Representative ENP, May 2011). Many of these demands and the
European Commission, A New
concern good or better governance. Other
Response to a Changing Neighbourhood).
parameters the quality of the health
But whereas the document presents a new
system or education or the degree of politi-approach, in practice the old ENP philosocal participation could be added to the
phy is evident and it seems the de-condi-

catalogue of virtues. However, the EU then

tionalisation of neighbourhood policy
risks losing sight of its key demands.
will continue.
Premium partners in League A show
manifest progress in emulating and
responding to the EUs understanding of
Three leagues for EU neighbours
and standards for democracy (e.g. Israel),
For this reason, the EU should consider a re-while the bulk of countries would qualify
conditionalisation of the ENP. This does not as stagnatory neighbours that only partly,
imply supplanting the basic architecture
inconsistently, or formally meet the gold
of the ENP and its regional and bilateral
standard. They would differ from authoricomponents. On the contrary, the existing
tarian countries (e.g. Azerbaijan, Belarus, or frameworks and instruments should be
Algeria in League C) in that they are open
maintained, but they should be applied
to reforms in principle. Translating the
consistently and in line with the ideas of
more for more and less for less slogans democracy evolution and a clear quid pro
into practical policy means that countries
quo. A way to attain this is to develop the are not grouped in one league forever, but
ENP into a system of three leagues. By
that they can move within and between the
qualifying the individual success of parthree leagues according to their performticular countries and placing them into one ance. Therefore, the EU would need to ex-of
three leagues for normative and demoplicitly define the core demands and benchcratic compliance with EU standards, the
marks against which it measures progress
ENP would make its policies more effective
and failure.
and transparent.
Considerations concerning a system of
Taking the EUs plea for deep and susthree leagues are as follows: Developments
tainable democracy seriously, the model
in the two neighbourhoods are not only
of three leagues would spell out different
unpredictable, but often change rapidly. If principles of cooperation (integration, co-the
EU wants to strengthen a merit-based
operation, or contact), depending on the
approach towards particular partners, the

degree of democratic change in the neighsystem of incentives has to respond swiftly.

bouring country. The state of democratisaWhat are the mechanisms for a quick and
tion would be the key criterion that deterefficient down- or upgrading of cooperamines the quality, the contractual frametion? Safeguard clauses and topping-up
work of the relationship, as well as the
schemes might be useful in this context,
EUs offers (see table, p. 4). In the eyes of but in any case a permanent and thorough
the EU, the essentials of political reform
monitoring and assessment process is
and democratisation are: free and fair
necessary. In a regime of reinforced evalua-SWP Comments 2
January 2012
3
The ENP as a System of Three Leagues
Degree of democratic
Elements of the offer
Contractual relations
Priniciples of cooperation
change
A-League
Free elections;
High level bilateral politAssociation Agreeintegration ; broad range
(premiumfreedom of opinion
ical dialogue; bilateral coments with DCFTA and of cooperation; substan-partners)
and press; protection
hesion facilities; partnerprospect for agreement tial financial assistance of human rights;
ships for modernization;
of new type
separation of powers
freedom packages (mobility, visa liberalisation)
B-League
Competitive elections; Sporadic summits and Association Agreecooperation; modest
(stagnatory

freedom of expression; permanent policy dia-ments with DCFTA

political dialogue; econeighbours) independent judiciary logues; opening markets nomic interdepen-according
to principles of
dence; focus on selected
DCFTA; socio-economic
policies; limited finanpartnerships for reform
cial assistance for good
governance and sectorial agreements
C-League
Authoritarian
Technical cooperation in
No contractual relacontact ; selective co(resistant
regimes; minimal
some areas (border protions or continuation
operation; dialogue and
neighbours) level of cooperation
tection; disaster relief;
of existing agreements cooperation limited to environment; education);
working level
knowledge-transfer for
SME; case-by-case inclusion
in multilateral frameworks
Stiftung Wissenschaft und
tion, the relevant actors have to be set:
influence because a country does not need
Politik, 2012
Should the EEAS play a bigger role in defin-EU assistance.
All rights reserved
ing benchmarks and monitoring impleThese considerations are neither theoThese Comments reflect
mentation? Or should civil society groups
retical nor about abstract principles and
solely the authors views.
be included more extensively? Moreover, it
the EU will have to take them into account

SWP
is important to define the yardsticks for
when handling practical matters, for exStiftung Wissenschaft und
measuring success of reforms: Is democratiample: the next steps in EU-Ukraine relaPolitik
German Institute for
sation the dominant criterion or are there
tions (with an Association Agreement that
International and
other relevant policy areas where progress
has been finalised in technical terms but
Security Affairs
should also pay off for delivering parthas not been signed for political reasons); Ludwigkirchplatz 34
ners, for example social inclusion, educathe specification of the Eastern Partnership 10719 Berlin
Telephone +49 30 880 07-0
tion, or environment? Irrespective of the
roadmap up to 2013 (according to the WarFax +49 30 880 07-100
weight that the ENP gives to the principle
saw Eastern Partnership Summit); and the
www.swp-berlin.org
swp@swp-berlin.org
of more for more and democratisation
further cooperation with MENA countries
rewards, the EU will also have to deal with (as with Egypt after the 2011 parliamentary
ISSN 1861-1761
situations or with specific bilateral relaelections). It will be up to the EU to marry tions where democratic conditionality
both objectives: stability that allows for
does not work. So, conditionality should
processes that move towards democratisanot be dogma, and the Union should be
tion. This will demand the commitment of
aware of cases where realism is required,
all EU actors in Brussels and EU capitals.
for example for geo-strategic reasons or
when the EU has no instruments to exert
SWP Comments 2
January 2012
4