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Asian Paints
ACCUMULATE
Performance Highlights
CMP
Target Price
(` cr)
4QFY11
4QFY10
Revenue
1,965.6
289.4
14.7
EBITDA
OPM (%)
PAT
190.9
% yoy
Angel est.
% Diff.
1,876.8
4.7
2,031.4
(3.2)
310.8
(6.9)
314.9
(8.1)
16.6
(184bp)
15.5
(77bp)
213.8
(10.7)
209.3
(8.8)
`2,682
`2,835
Investment Period
12 Months
Stock Info
Sector
FMCG
25,729
Beta
The numbers for this quarter are not comparable on a yoy basis as 4QFY2010
included six month results of overseas subsidiaries. We maintain our Accumulate
recommendation on the stock.
Domestic volumes steady, international business affected by unrest in MENA: The
top line grew by 4.7% yoy to `1,965.6 (`1,876.8cr), however in comparable
terms, the growth was 22.6% yoy which was robust. For the full year, the
company registered a paint volume growth of 17% yoy on a standalone basis,
while on a consolidated comparable basis with overseas subsidiaries, the revenue
was aided by 19.5% yoy growth. Earnings declined by 10.7% yoy to `190.9cr
(`213.8cr), as the company faces margin pressures. The companys operating
profit declined by 184bp yoy to `289.4cr (`310.8cr) on account of high rawmaterial costs and other expenses (up 37bp yoy).
Outlook and valuation: Post 4QFY2011 results, we have tweaked our top-line
numbers to factor in relative sluggishness in demand in the companys
international business (particularly in certain pockets of South Asia and Middle
East). We have pruned our margin estimates to factor in gross margin pressures
that the company faces on account of unrelenting increase in crude prices but
expect margins to sustain at 17%, aided by higher value growth and ~4%
weighted average price hike taken in FY2012 (further prices not rules out).
0.4
3,027/2,016
18,600
10
BSE Sensex
18,585
Nifty
5,563
Reuters Code
ASPN.BO
Bloomberg Code
APNT@IN
52.3
17.8
16.2
13.7
Abs. (%)
3m
1yr
3yr
Sensex
4.8
8.4
11.0
APL
7.3
29.7
120.0
FY2010
FY2011
FY2012E
FY2013E
6,681
7,706
9,153
10,679
22.3
15.3
18.8
16.7
772.0
843.2
988.5
1,182.2
% chg
92.3
9.2
17.2
19.6
EBITDA (%)
18.4
17.0
16.9
17.1
EPS (`)
80.5
87.9
103.1
123.2
P/E (x)
33.3
30.5
26.0
21.8
P/BV (x)
15.0
11.6
9.1
7.3
RoE (%)
57.4
43.0
39.3
37.2
RoCE (%)
54.7
47.3
45.8
44.6
3.8
3.3
2.7
2.3
20.6
19.1
16.0
13.3
Net sales
% chg
Net profit (Adj.)
EV/Sales (x)
EV/EBITDA (x)
Source: Company, Angel Research
Chitrangda Kapur
022 3935 7800 Ext: 6822
chitrangdar.kapur@angelbroking.com
Sreekanth P.V.S
022 3935 7800 Ext: 6841
sreekanth.s@ angelbroking.com
4QFY11
4QFY10
Net Sales
1,965.6
Consumption of RM
1,152.6
(% of sales)
Staff costs
(% of sales)
Other expenses
(% of sales)
Total expenditure
% yoy
FY2011
FY2010
% chg
1,876.8
4.7
7,706.2
6,680.9
15.3
1,046.4
10.2
4,474.6
3,758.0
19.1
58.1
56.2
(15.7)
454.0
436.3
5.9
6.5
6.7
1,464.7
1,259.3
58.6
55.8
115.0
136.5
5.8
7.3
408.6
383.1
4.1
16.3
20.8
20.4
19.0
18.8
1,676.2
1,566.0
7.0
6,393.3
5,453.5
17.2
289.4
310.8
(6.9)
1,313.0
1,227.4
7.0
14.7
16.6
17.0
18.4
7.6
6.9
9.5
22.2
28.5
Operating profit
OPM (%)
Interest
(21.9)
29.2
24.1
20.9
113.1
83.6
35.4
Other income
20.0
20.8
(3.9)
82.6
140.5
(41.2)
(9.3)
1,260.2
1,255.9
16.4
18.8
(5.7)
378.9
373.1
Associate profit/loss
272.6
300.5
(% of sales)
13.9
16.0
81.8
86.8
(% of PBT)
30.0
28.9
30.1
29.7
4.9
22.1
38.1
48.3
190.9
213.8
881.4
882.8
(0.9)
(1.2)
Minority interest
Recurring PAT (after MI)
Extr. income/(expense)
Prior period items
Reported PAT
186.0
192.6
(10.7)
(3.4)
843.2
835.6
PATM (%)
9.5
10.3
10.9
12.5
9.6
9.6
9.6
9.6
19.4
20.1
87.9
87.1
(3.4)
0.3
1.5
(0.2)
0.9
0.9
35.0
30.0
2,000
1,500
20.0
1,000
15.0
(yoy %)
(` cr)
25.0
10.0
500
5.0
-
250.0
PAT (LHS)
OPM
4Q11
3Q11
4Q09
10.0
4Q11
3Q11
2Q11
1Q11
4Q10
3Q10
(50.0)
2Q10
10
1Q10
4Q09
60
20.0
2Q11
50.0
110
12.4
30.0
1Q11
100.0
4Q10
160
40.0
3Q10
150.0
38.6
2Q10
200.0
210
(%)
260
50.0
(yoy %)
310
(`cr)
1Q10
Gross margin
Investment rationale
Margins to sustain at ~17% levels, aided by price hikes and mix improvement:
We expect APL to sustain its OPM at ~17% levels, aided by 1) strong pricing
power as reflected in the recent price hikes amounting to cumulative weighted
average price hike of 1112% YTD, 2) superior product mix (higher proportion
of emulsions) and 3) higher operating leverage (driven by strong top-line
growth).
JV with PPG for industrial business: APL has formed a second 50:50 JV with
PPG to offer products in the protective, industrial powder, industrial containers
and light industrial coatings markets. We believe this JV is a positive
development for APL and will help the company to build up its position in
industrial coatings, where it is the second largest player.
New estimate
% chg
(` cr)
FY12E
FY13E
FY12E
FY13E
FY12E
FY13E
Revenue
9,124
10,663
9,153
10,679
0.3
0.2
OPM (%)
18.5
19.9
16.9
17.1
(162bp)
(285bp)
EPS (`)
95.6
116.0
103.1
123.2
7.8
6.2
FY2010
FY2011
FY2012E
FY2013E
5,603
6,925
8,373
9,906
16.4
(1.0)
12.9
9.5
16.3
4.0
14.9
3.0
150
97
200
229
5,125
6,322
7,634
9,006
218
71
1,264
244
78
1,062
274
87
1,158
312
96
1,265
6,681
7,706
9,153
10,679
15.2
7.9
23.6
(35.5)
20.9
106.2
18.3
14.6
20.0
23.4
20.8
18.0
13.9
11.9
12.0
13.9
APICL (Industrial)
International Business
18.4
33.4
10.0
(16.0)
12.0
9.0
10.0
9.3
22.3
15.3
18.8
16.7
Mcap
(` cr)
CMP
(`)
TP^
(`)
25,729
2,682
2,835
5.7
26.0
21.8
2.7
2.3
39.3
37.2
17.7
18.4
4,494
376
458
21.7
26.3
18.1
0.9
0.8
35.7
44.5
14.2
17.1
Reco
Upside
(%)
P/E (x)
FY11E FY12E
EV/Sales (x)
FY11E FY12E
CAGR #
Sales
PAT
RoE (%)
FY11E FY12E
Asian Paints
Accumulate
Britannia
Buy
Colgate
Reduce
12,519
921
837
(9.1)
27.1
24.2
4.7
4.2
100.1
87.2
13.5
11.8
Dabur
Accumulate
17,535
101
115
14.1
24.3
21.0
3.2
2.7
51.0
46.1
21.6
20.0
GSKCHL
Neutral
9,342
2,221
2,163
(2.6)
26.9
22.6
3.1
2.6
32.6
31.8
17.3
17.5
GCPL
Buy
12,527
387
447
15.5
21.7
19.1
3.2
2.9
35.1
26.3
13.4
17.8
HUL
Neutral
65,418
300
306
2.1
25.7
22.5
2.8
2.5
74.8
74.6
12.5
17.1
14.2
ITC
Accumulate
144,278
186
205
10.2
24.6
21.8
5.6
4.9
31.9
30.6
13.5
Marico
Accumulate
8,174
133
140
5.2
26.9
21.8
2.4
2.1
30.8
29.0
12.0
25.7
Nestle
Reduce
38,677
4,011
3,483
(13.2)
39.7
33.4
5.3
4.6
91.1
72.9
16.1
18.9
Source: Company, Angel Research, Note: # denotes CAGR for FY2011-13E, ^ In case of Neutral recommendation, TP = Fair value
FY2011E
FY2012E
9,153
9,294
(1.5)
10,679
10,992
(2.8)
Angel estimates
Consensus
Diff (%)
EPS (`)
FY2011E
FY2012E
103.1
108.5
(5.0)
123.2
129.2
(4.6)
Angel estimates
Consensus
Diff (%)
Sensex
Asian Paints
3,000
130%
2,500
140%
120%
110%
100%
90%
15x
18x
21x
24x
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
35.0
30.0
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
Mar-05
Jul-05
Nov-05
Mar-06
Jul-06
Nov-06
Mar-07
Jul-07
Nov-07
Mar-08
Jul-08
Nov-08
Mar-09
Jul-09
Nov-09
Mar-10
Jul-10
Nov-10
Mar-11
Apr-11
Oct-10
Apr-10
Oct-09
Apr-09
Oct-08
Apr-08
Oct-07
Apr-07
Oct-06
Apr-06
Apr-02
Oct-02
Apr-03
Oct-03
Apr-04
Oct-04
Apr-05
Oct-05
Apr-06
Oct-06
Apr-07
Oct-07
Apr-08
Oct-08
Apr-09
Oct-09
Apr-10
Oct-10
Apr-11
Apr-05
Apr-11
Mar-11
Feb-11
Jan-11
Dec-10
Nov-10
Oct-10
Sep-10
Aug-10
Jul-10
Jun-10
May-10
Apr-10
Oct-05
80%
FY2008
FY2009
FY2010
FY2011
FY2012E
FY2013E
4,939
6,045
7,107
8,311
9,891
11,552
531
581
426
605
738
873
Net sales
4,407
5,464
6,681
7,706
9,153
10,679
4,407
5,464
6,681
7,706
9,153
10,679
20.1
24.0
22.3
15.3
18.8
16.7
Total expenditure
3,747
4,794
5,453
6,393
7,608
8,855
Cost of materials
2,578
3,371
3,758
4,475
5,402
6,367
Advertising exp
566
714
853
994
1,135
1,281
Personnel
307
372
436
454
549
619
Others
296
338
406
471
522
587
Gross sales
Less: excise duty
% chg
EBITDA
661
670
1,228
1,313
1,545
1,824
% chg
38.2
1.4
83.2
7.0
17.7
18.1
(% of Net sales)
15.0
12.3
18.4
17.0
16.9
17.1
Depreciation& amortisation
59
74
84
113
130
142
EBIT
601
596
1,144
1,200
1,415
1,682
% chg
44.3
(1.0)
92.1
4.9
17.9
18.8
(% of Net sales)
13.6
10.9
17.1
15.6
15.5
15.7
21
26
28
22
16
60
51
78
83
93
107
(% of PBT)
9.3
8.2
6.5
6.6
6.2
6.0
Recurring PBT
640
620
1,193
1,260
1,493
1,780
% chg
47.0
(3.0)
92.4
5.6
18.5
19.3
Extraordinary expense/(Inc.)
PBT (reported)
(64)
617
1,257
1,260
1,493
1,780
Tax
203
197
373
379
455
543
(% of PBT)
31.8
31.8
31.3
30.1
30.5
30.5
PAT (reported)
436
423
820
881
1,037
1,237
19
22
48
38
49
55
418
401
772
843
988
1,182
ADJ. PAT
409
398
836
843
988
1,182
% chg
45.4
(2.8)
110.0
0.9
17.2
19.6
(% of Net sales)
8
631
9.3
7.3
12.5
10.9
10.8
11.1
43.5
41.8
80.5
87.9
103.1
123.2
43.5
41.8
80.5
87.9
103.1
123.2
% chg
45.9
(3.9)
92.3
9.2
17.2
19.6
FY2011 FY2012E
FY2013E
SOURCES OF FUNDS
Equity Share Capital
96
96
96
96
96
96
Preference Capital
Reserves& Surplus
886
1,107
1,614
2,121
2,716
3,450
Shareholders Funds
982
1,203
1,710
2,217
2,812
3,546
57
76
94
84
95
101
275
309
229
179
124
69
Minority Interest
Total Loans
Deferred Tax Liability
Total Liabilities
39
53
56
56
56
56
1,354
1,641
2,090
2,536
3,088
3,772
APPLICATION OF FUNDS
Gross Block
1,211
1,461
1,500
1,927
2,166
2,373
634
648
628
741
871
1,013
Net Block
578
813
873
1,186
1,296
1,360
Capital Work-in-Progress
114
92
407
289
325
356
44
51
37
37
37
37
277
78
624
624
624
624
1,494
1,799
1,844
2,313
2,983
3,851
111
210
106
210
526
1,012
Goodwill
Investments
Current Assets
Cash
Loans & Advances
209
247
239
270
343
416
Other
1,174
1,341
1,498
1,834
2,113
2,422
Current liabilities
1,152
1,192
1,695
1,912
2,177
2,456
341
607
149
401
806
1,395
1,354
1,641
2,090
2,536
3,088
3,772
FY2013E
622
1,130
1,260
1,493
1,780
59
74
84
113
130
142
(143)
134
(169)
(139)
(153)
(8)
(5)
(13)
(24)
(38)
203
197
373
379
455
543
Others
(23)
(25)
137
(27)
12
476
337
1,105
785
1,016
1,189
(282)
(228)
(354)
(308)
(276)
(238)
(84)
198
(546)
(366)
(30)
(900)
(308)
(276)
(238)
Issue of Equity
Inc./(Dec.) in loans
(16)
(4)
(79)
(50)
(55)
(55)
97
197
236
337
393
449
(8)
(5)
(13)
(24)
(38)
(105)
(207)
(310)
(374)
(423)
(466)
100
(105)
104
317
486
105
111
210
106
210
526
111
210
106
210
526
1,012
647
Key ratios
Y/E March
61.6
64.1
33.3
30.5
26.0
21.8
P/CEPS
54.9
54.5
28.0
26.9
23.0
19.4
P/BV
26.2
21.4
15.0
11.6
9.1
7.3
0.6
0.7
1.0
1.1
1.3
1.5
EV/Sales
5.8
4.7
3.8
3.3
2.7
2.3
EV/EBITDA
38.8
38.4
20.6
19.1
16.0
13.2
EV / Total Assets
18.9
15.7
12.1
9.9
8.0
6.4
EPS (Basic)
43.5
41.8
80.5
87.9
103.1
123.2
43.5
41.8
80.5
87.9
103.1
123.2
Cash EPS
48.8
49.2
95.8
99.7
116.6
138.1
DPS
17.0
17.5
27.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
102.4
125.4
178.3
231.1
293.2
369.6
RoCE (Pre-tax)
47.6
39.8
61.3
51.9
50.3
49.0
44.6
35.0
58.0
54.8
54.0
57.4
RoE
46.5
36.4
57.4
43.0
39.3
37.2
Asset Turnover
3.6
3.7
4.5
4.0
4.2
4.5
59
51
52
50
49
48
Receivables (days)
38
38
30
37
36
35
Payables (days)
82
68
75
75
72
69
19
26
11
13
Book Value
Returns (%)
10
E-mail: research@angelbroking.com
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Asian Paints
No
No
No
No
Note: We have not considered any Exposure below `1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors.
Ratings (Returns):
11