Shale gas

Global experience and key learnings

| Shale gas - Global experience and key learnings

Contents
Shale gas: global potential and enablers............................ 3
Benefits of shale gas development.................................... 3
Global shale gas potential................................................. 5
Enablers for shale gas development.................................. 6
Regulatory landscape................................................ 6
Favorable pricing regime............................................ 7
Technological capabilities........................................... 7
Natural gas pipeline infrastructure.............................. 7
Shale gas in India............................................................. 8
Key learning for India....................................................... 9

Shale gas - Global experience and key learnings |

| Shale gas - Global experience and key learnings

Shale gas: global potential and enablers

Surging shale gas production in the US, as well as the possibility of replication of this success worldwide, has the potential
to revolutionize the global energy market. Widely dispersed shale gas reserves indicate the strong potential of shale gas to
emerge as a major alternative source of energy worldwide. According to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA),
technically recoverable shale gas resources globally stand at 7,299 trillion cubic feet (tcf) 1. To put this into perspective, global
natural gas consumption amounted to 116.7 tcf in 20122.
Hydraulic fracturing technology and horizontal drilling have made the revolution possible and continue to be a topic of
debate across the world. Countries such as China, Poland and Argentina view development of shale gas as a key means to
achieve energy security. On the other hand, countries such as France and Bulgaria are concerned about the impact on the
environment and, therefore, continue to impose a moratorium on shale gas-related activities. The hydrocarbon regulatory
regime in most countries was developed prior to the shale boom and relates to conventional exploration and development.
Countries that anticipate an upturn in their shale-related activity may need to modify their existing regulations to include shale
gas or they may have to devise a new regime to govern unconventional resource development.

Benefits of shale gas

development
Unlocking of huge domestic shale reserves has transformed
the US energy market. Natural gas production has increased
exponentially and helped the country reduce its reliance on
imported gas. According to the EIA, the US holds 665 tcf
of technically recoverable shale gas reserves3. Shale gas
production in the country jumped from 2 tcf in 2007 to 8.5 tcf
in 2011. The share of shale gas in the countrys overall natural
gas production increased from 8% (2007) to 30% (2011).
Consequently, its gas imports declined from 4.6 tcf in 2007
to 3.1 tcf in 2012 and its LNG imports from 0.8 tcf to 0.2 tcf
during this period4.

Natural gas prices in the US continue to be low, since the

surge in shale gas production, coupled with a weak demand,
has resulted in oversupply and very high gas inventories. The
average price of gas at the Henry Hub has come down from
US$8.9 per million metric British thermal units (mmbtu) in
2008 to around US$3.6 per mmbtu in July 20135. Oil and gas
prices in the US have been moving in different directions since
2009, resulting in an increase in the countrys oil-to-gas price
ratio (Chart 1). Similarly, gas prices in the US are prevailing at
a substantial discount to gas prices in Europe and LNG prices in
the Asia Pacific (Chart 2).

1. Technically Recoverable Shale Oil and Shale Gas Resources: An Assessment of 137 Shale Formations in 41 Countries Outside the United States, US Energy
Information Administration, http://www.eia.gov/analysis/studies/worldshalegas/, June 2013.
2. BP Statistical Review of World Energy June 2013, BP, http://www.bp.com/statisticalreview, accessed on 16 August 2013.
3. Technically Recoverable Shale Oil and Shale Gas Resources: An Assessment of 137 Shale Formations in 41 Countries Outside the United States, US Energy
Information Administration, http://www.eia.gov/analysis/studies/worldshalegas/, June 2013.
4. U.S. Natural Gas Summary, US Energy Information Administration, http://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/ng_sum_lsum_dcu_nus_a.htm, accessed on 14 August 2013; EY
analysis.
5. Natural Gas Spot and Futures Prices, US EIA database, accessed 14 August 2013.

Shale gas - Global experience and key learnings |

Chart 1: Oil-gas price ratio

Chart 2: US gas prices vs rest of the world

10

20

18

16

14

12

10
8

Source: US EIA, EY analysis

Henry Hub

Europe gas

Jul-2013

Jan-2013

Jul-2012

Jan-2012

Jul-2011

Jan-2011

Jul-2010

Jul-2013

Jan-2013

Jul-2012

Jan-2012

Jul-2011

Jan-2011

Jul-2010

Jan-2010

Oil-gas price ratio

Jan-2010

Japan LNG

Source: US EIA, World Bank commodity price data

The shale gas revolution has boosted the US economy by increasing the competiveness of gas-consuming industries, as well as by creating
employment and revenue opportunities for the state and federal governments.

Drop in electricity prices:

Reduced feedstock costs:

Job creation:

In the last decade, electricity

generated from gas-based
plants has increased by
more than 50%, with power
generators substituting coal
with cheaply available gas.
This has reduced the price
of electricity in the country,
since wholesale electricity
prices have slumped by more
than 50% since 2008.6

US-based chemical
and petrochemical
manufacturers, which use
gas as feedstock, have
benefitted from the decline
in input costs. This has given
the country a competitive
advantage over players in
other regions. In the previous
decade, high feedstock prices
resulted in many companies
moving their operations to
the Middle East and Asia.
However, the trend has
now reversed, with many
companies, including Exxon
Mobil, Dow Chemicals and
Chevron Phillips Chemical,
increasing their investments
in the countrys chemical and
petrochemical industry.7

An increase in shale gas

operations is creating new
jobs across the US. According
to IHS estimates, the shale
gas industry employed more
than 601,000 workers across
the value chain in 2010. This
number is expected to grow
to 870,000 by 2015 and 1.6
million by 2035. 8

Key source of government

revenue:
The shale gas industry is
emerging as an important
source of government
revenues. In 2010, the
industry contributed around
US$18.6 billion in taxes,
including US$9.6 billion in
federal taxes and US$8.8
billion in state and local
taxes.9

6. Electric plants shift from coal to natural gas, The Hawk Eye, 17 January 2012, via Factiva, 2012 The Hawk Eye, Burlington IA. Shale drilling affects rest of energy
sector, Pittsburgh Tribune-Review, 18 January 2012, via Factiva, 2012 Tribune-Review Publishing Co.
7. Shale trickles down, ICIS Chemical Business, 11 June 2012, via Factiva, 2012 Reed Business Information Limited; Exxon Mobil Plans US Gulf Coast Ethane
Cracker, The Oil Daily, 4 June 2012, via Factiva, 2012 Energy Intelligence Group.
8. The economic and employment contributions of shale gas in the United States, IHS Global Insight, December 2011, http://www.ihs.com/info/ecc/a/shale-gas-jobsreport.aspx; Shale Gas Production to Support 1.6 Million Jobs by 2035, American Gas, 1 February 2012, via Dow Jones Factiva, 2012 American Gas.
9. The economic and employment contributions of shale gas in the United States, IHS Global Insight, December 2011, http://www.ihs.com/info/ecc/a/shale-gas-jobsreport.aspx.
4

| Shale gas - Global experience and key learnings

The surge in shale gas production has transformed the countrys

outlook on energy supplies and has dramatically altered the
trade flow outlook of the global gas market. According to the
EIAs Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) 2013, shale gas production
in the US is likely to account for around 50% of the countrys
total gas production by 2040. According to the EIA, the US
may become a net exporter of LNG by 2016 from being a major
importer of the product a few years ago10.

>600 tcf

599-300 tcf

Global shale gas potential

The success story of shale gas in the US has resulted in
heightened speculation over its potential to transform energy
markets in other regions. The latest estimates published by
EIA in 2013 on technically recoverable shale gas resources
worldwide were 10% higher than its estimate in its 2011 report.
China is expected to have the largest technically recoverable
shale gas resources (1,115 tcf), followed by Argentina (802
tcf), Algeria (707 tcf) and the US (665 tcf). Two-thirds of
technically recoverable shale gas resources are concentrated in
seven countries China, Argentina, Algeria, the US, Canada,
Mexico and Australia. In terms of geography, North America
accounts for a 24% share, South America for 20%, Africa and
Asia each for 19%, and Europe and Australia for another 12%
and 6%, respectively, of global technically recoverable shale gas
resources11.

299-100 tcf

99-50 tcf

Source: US Energy Information Administration

10. Annual Energy Outlook 2013, US EIA, April 2013, pg. 79.
11. Technically Recoverable Shale Oil and Shale Gas Resources: An Assessment of 137 Shale Formations in 41 Countries Outside the United States, US Energy
Information Administration, June 2013.

Shale gas - Global experience and key learnings |

China has the largest shale gas reserves, which account for
almost 15% of global shares, and around 80% of the reserves
in Asia. Chinas 12th five-year plan set shale gas production
targets of 6.5 billion cubic meters (bcm) per year by 2015 and
60 bcm 100 bcm per year by 202012. Chinas state-owned
company, CNPC, has set a shale gas production target of 2.5
bcm by 201513. Difficult geological terrains, an inexperienced
service industry and lack of technological capabilities may
however pose a challenge for China to attain its ambitious
targets.
In Europe, nearly two-thirds of estimated shale reserves are
concentrated in three countries Russia, Poland and France.14
Various European governments have a polarized view on shale
gas development. Although nearly all European countries
intend to improve their energy security, which includes reducing
dependence on gas supplies from Russia, several European
countries are viewing shale gas development with scepticism,
mainly on account of their environmental concerns on hydraulic
fracturing. While France, Bulgaria and the Netherlands have
temporarily banned shale gas exploration, the UK and Romania
have recently lifted the ban. In the meanwhile, Ukraine and
Poland are actively pursuing shale gas exploration. Most
other countries are adopting a wait and see approach,
while others, including Belgium and Austria, are waiting for
results of scientific studies before issuing permits for shale gas
exploration.15
Argentina accounts for more than half of shale gas reserves
in South America. Its government is encouraging investments
in the shale gas industry to offset the decline in domestic
conventional oil and gas production and reduce its dependence
on imported gas from Bolivia. Argentinas national oil company,
YPF, has plans to spend US$ 2.7b on shale gas during 2013
2017; this capex accounts for about 40% of its total allocated
budget for the natural gas segment.16

Enablers for shale gas

development
Countries that are aiming to replicate the North American shale
gas revolution need to be mindful of several unique factors
that have helped the US in achieving its success. These include
industry-friendly regulations, a developed onshore oilfield
services (OFS) sector, an extensive gas- distribution network and
market-driven gas pricing. Countries other than North America
do not have similar combination of capabilities in place, and it
will take time for them to develop these.

Regulatory landscape 17
A stable and supportive fiscal regime was one of the several
factors that helped to accelerate development of shale gas
in the US. Furthermore, US legislation pertaining to private
ownership of surface and mineral rights has enabled easy
access to land and helped companies acquire large acreage
for shale gas development. Furthermore, during the initial
phase of the initiative, the US Government funded R&D
programs and provided tax credits to stimulate development
of shale resources.
Following the US path of offering financial incentives, other
countries have plans to offer similar incentives to encourage
investment in domestic shale gas resources. For instance,
Western Australia has reduced its royalty rate to increase
shale gas exploration activities. Similarly, India proposes
to reduce royalty paid by national oil companies (NOCs)
for shale gas development. China has allowed foreign
companies to invest in its shale gas sector (initially limited
to domestic companies). Additionally, the country has
proposed a subsidy for every cubic meter of shale developed
during 20122015. The UK is expected to issue proposals
for fiscal incentives later this year to promote investment in
the shale gas sector. If the proposals are adopted, it will be
the first country in Europe to offer new incentives to shale
gas developers.
Apart from offering incentives, governments are
formulating shale gas-specific policies to provide regulatory
certainty to investors. For instance, the UK Government has
plans to create an Office for Unconventional Gas. Algeria
has recently amended its hydrocarbon law, which now
promotes development of unconventional resources.

12. China Plans Second Shale Bid Round, The Oil Daily, 28 June 2012, via Dow Jones Factiva, 2012 Energy Intelligence Group.
13. China Shale Enthusiasm Dims, World Gas Intelligence, 20 March 2013, via Dow Jones Factiva, 2013 Energy Intelligence Group.
14. Technically Recoverable Shale Oil and Shale Gas Resources: An Assessment of 137 Shale Formations in 41 Countries Outside the United States, US Energy
Information Administration, June 2013.
15. Europe divided on shale gas, Agence France Presse, 7 June 2013, via Dow Jones Factiva, 2013 Agence France-Presse.
16. Business plan 2013 2017, YPF, August 2012, pg. 43, 44.
17. A retrospective view of shale gas development in the United States, United States Association for Energy Economics, http://www.usaee.org/usaee2013/
submissions/Abs/What%20led%20to%20the%20shale%20gas%20boom.pdf, April 2013, 2013 Resources for the Future; The international dynamics of shale, EY,
May 2013; UPDATE 3-Britain lifts shale gas ban, imposes tighter rules, Reuters News, 13 December 2012, via Dow Jones Factiva, 2012 Reuters Limited; Shale
gas policy on way, Metis Energy Insider, 17 June 2013, via Dow Jones Factiva, 2013 Metis Business Solutions Pvt. Ltd; Western Australia looks to shale plays to
end gas shortages, LNG Intelligence, 9 September 2011, via Dow Jones Factiva, 2011 Energy Intelligence Group; National oil company monitor, EY, Q1 2013;
Oil min plans sops to boost shale gas production, Indian Express, 12 August 2013, via Dow Jones Factiva, 2013 Indian Express Online Media Pvt. Ltd; Algeria
amended hydrocarbon law published in official gazette, Platts Commodity News, 10 March 2013, via Dow Jones Factiva, 2013 Platts.

| Shale gas - Global experience and key learnings

 Favorable pricing regime 18

Faced by gas shortage during the 1970s, the US
Government began deregulating wellhead gas prices
starting 1979, with complete deregulation coming into force
from 1993 onward. This gradual deregulation led wellhead
prices to better reflect supply/demand balances and
provided the necessary stimulus to production of natural
gas.
Over the past one year, China, India and Argentina have
raised their natural gas prices amid a widening gap between
natural gas production and consumption in these countries.
According to the new pricing formula to be adopted by India,
wellhead gas prices are expected to double from US$4.4/
mmbtu currently to US$8.4/mmbtu (at current crude prices)
by April 2014. China has increased city gate gas prices for
the non-residential sector by 15% (on an average) across
the country. In 2012, Argentina has announced that oil
and gas companies will be able to secure a wellhead price
of US$7.5/mmbtu for new gas production in the country.
Its government has already signed deals with YPF and Pan
American Energy, allowing them to charge an increased
price. It is expected to sign similar agreements with other
companies in coming years. These initiatives aim to provide
incentives to oil and gas producers to explore and develop
shale gas blocks. In addition, China is offering shale gas
blocks, India has plans to conduct an auction for shale gas
in the near future and Argentina has intensified its efforts to
tap its Vaca Muerta shale plays.

Technological capabilities

19

In the US, the shale gas revolution was led by small and
mid-size independent oil and gas companies that pioneered
technologies to extract shale gas. Additionally, the US
had large and experienced OFS companies, including
Schlumberger, Halliburton and Baker Hughes, which have
played a pivotal role in supporting the countrys shale
industry.
Government-owned companies are forging partnerships
with oil and gas companies operating in the US to leverage
the latters experience and technological capabilities.

For instance, the Chinese (through CNPC) and Ukrainian

governments have signed their first production-sharing
agreement for upstream shale activities with Shell, taking
an important step toward full-scale commercial development
of the gas. Similarly, YPF has entered two separate deals
with Bridas International and Chevron for exploration of
Vaca Muerta shale plays. India-based ONGC has signed
an agreement with ConocoPhillips for cooperation in
exploration and development of domestic shale gas
resources.
Acquisition of stakes in foreign shale assets is another
strategy being adopted by oil and gas companies to fill their
technology and experience gaps. In 2012, Sinopec signed
a wide-ranging US$2.5b joint venture agreement with
Devon Energy for the latters 33% stake acreage, which is
spread across five US onshore shale plays. During the same
year, Indian state-owned companies, OIL and IOCL, jointly
acquired a 30% stake in Carrizos liquid-rich shale assets in
the Niobrara basin in the US.
The absence of a relatively experienced service industry
is pushing countries to enter partnerships with foreign
OFS companies. For example, in 2010, the Weir Group and
Shengli Oilfield Highland Petroleum Equipment Co formed
a JV to provide equipment to Chinas shale gas industry.
In 2012, China-based Anton Oilfield Services offered
Schlumberger a 20% stake the two companies plan to
cooperate on shale gas development in China.

Natural gas pipeline infrastructure 20

Another factor that contributed to the shale gas revolution
in the US was the existence of its extensive network of
pipelines to transport natural gas. Additionally, the country
had a policy of open access to interstate natural gas
pipelines, which helped it create a competitive wholesale
natural gas market.
Countries such as Poland, with lucrative shale deposits, lack
such an extensive, country-wide pipeline infrastructure.
Shale gas fields in some, such as China, are fairly isolated
from the countrys existing pipeline infrastructure.
Additionally, countries including China impose restrictions
on third-party access to pipeline infrastructure. Global
output of shale gas on a scale, similar to that of the US,
will depend on the ability of countries to overcome the
challenges mentioned above.

18. Gas Pricing and Regulation: Chinas Challenges and IEA Experience, International Energy Agency, April 2013, pg. 44, 45; China, India Gas Price Reforms Open
Door to More LNG Imports, RIA Oreanda-News, 16 July 2013, via Dow Jones Factiva, 2013 RIA OREANDA; Pan American Energy to Invest $3.4B in Argentina
From 2013-17, Dow Jones Top Energy Stories, 29 December 2012, via Dow Jones Factiva, 2012 Dow Jones & Company, Inc; Argentine president agrees to
higher prices for gas producers, IHS Global Insight Daily Analysis, 30 November 2012, via Dow Jones Factiva, 2012 IHS Global Insight Limited.
19. Andrew Neff, Ukrainian government approves shale gas PSA with Shell, IHS Global Insight Daily Analysis, 24 January 2013, via Dow Jones Factiva, 2013 IHS
Global Insight Limited; The international dynamics of shale, EY, May 2013; UPDATE 3-Argentine YPF, Bridas in shale investment deal, Reuters News, 29 December
2012, via Dow Jones Factiva, 2012 Reuters Limited; Chevron, YPF agree Argentina shale drilling program, The Oil Daily, 20 December 2012, 2012 Energy
Intelligence Group; National oil company monitor, EY, Q1 2012; National oil company monitor, EY, Q4 2012; The Weir Group and Shengli Oilfield Highland
Petroleum Equipment Form JV, Manufacturing Close-Up, 2 December 2010, via Dow Jones Factiva, 2010 Close-Up Media, Inc; Schlumberger Purchases Stake in
Chinese Oilfield Services Company, RIA Oreanda-News, 27 July 2012, via Dow Jones Factiva, 2012 RIA OREANDA.
20.A retrospective view of shale gas development in the United States, United States Association for Energy Economics, http://www.usaee.org/usaee2013/
submissions/Abs/What%20led%20to%20the%20shale%20gas%20boom.pdf, April 2013, 2013 Resources for the Future; China commences construction of first
shale gas pipeline, IHS Global Insight Daily Analysis, 20 June 2013, via Dow Jones Factiva, 2013 IHS Global Insight Limited.

Shale gas - Global experience and key learnings |

Shale gas in India

Indias natural gas market continues to see a deficit, with demand far exceeding
supply. In FY13, natural gas consumption in India is expected amount to
104.4 bcm, as compared to its production of 40.7 bcm.21 Consequently, the
countrys dependence on LNG imports has increased considerably. The Indian
Government has been taking measures on an ongoing basis to bridge this
supply-demand deficit. These include its initiatives to increase wellhead gas
prices, effective April 2014, which is likely to incentivize companies to increase
their gas production and also benefit the Indias shale gas industry.
The EIA has revised its estimates upwards for technically recoverable shale gas
resources in India, which now stand at 96 tcf, up from its previous estimate
of 63 tcf.22 The revision will help the Government attract investors to its first
shale gas bidding round (slated toward the end of 2013).
The Government has prepared a draft policy for exploration and production
of shale oil and gas in the country, and has invited comments and suggestions
from various stakeholders. According to the proposal submitted by the
Petroleum Ministry to the Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs, initial
permission for exploration of shale resources on existing acreage will be
restricted to NOCs. The policy also proposes several financial incentives for
NOCs, including Income tax and customs exemptions, along with reduced
royalty to be paid on shale gas. The Ministry plans to formulate a separate
policy for private and foreign companies at a later date. 23

21.Twelfth five year plan, Planning Commission, Government of India, 2013, Pg. 176; Monthly production, Ministry Of Petroleum & Natural Gas, March 2013.
22.Technically Recoverable Shale Oil and Shale Gas Resources: An Assessment of 137 Shale Formations in 41 Countries Outside the United States, US Energy
Information Administration, June 2013; World Shale Gas Resources: An Initial Assessment of 14 Regions Outside the United States, US Energy Information
Administration, April 2011.
23.Industry News - Shale Regulation Limits Short-Term Unconventional Outlook, Business Monitor International, 15 August 2013.

| Shale gas - Global experience and key learnings

Key learning for India

In order to replicate the shale gas boom in the US, the Indian
Government will need to build strong service and infrastructure
capabilities, along with a favorable regulatory regime, which
not only promotes shale gas exploration and production
(E&P) activities, but also addresses environmental and social
concerns. Taking a cue from the US, the Government could look
at building a liberal fiscal regime, since the shale industry is at
its infancy stage of development in the country, and the cost of
such initiatives will be higher than those of conventional oil and
gas operations.
Lack of technological know-how and inadequate OFS sector
capacity and suitable equipment are some of the bottlenecks
impeding the development of Indias unconventional resource
potential. Domestic state-owned and private companies have
partnered with foreign companies and also acquired stakes in
foreign shale assets to gain the required technical expertise.
They will have to continue to foster such partnerships to be
able to apply their expertise in developing shale gas reserves in

India. Additionally, many OFS companies are looking to export

the techniques they have used successfully in North America
to international markets. The Indian Government could tap this
opportunity and encourage the participation of such companies
in the country.
India will also need to expand its natural gas pipeline
infrastructure. Presently, around 11,500 km is covered by
natural gas pipelines across the country, with another 12,650
km of pipeline infrastructure being under various stages of
implementation.24 Timely execution of these projects will
be critical for developing shale resources. Furthermore, the
Government will have to create a favorable policy that addresses
the concerns of both landowners, and oil and gas companies,
with land acquisition expected to be a vital issue in India.
In the US, shale gas revolution has been led by mid-sized
independent E&P and technology companies. Similarly, the
Government of India should ensure that adequate incentives and
a level playing field are made available to domestic private and
foreign companies to encourage investments in this important
hydrocarbon resource.

24. 12,650 K.M. Cross Country Pipeline Network being laid for transporting natural gas throughout the Country : Petroleum Minister, Metis Energy Insider, 18 March
2013, via Dow Jones Factiva, 2013 Metis Business Solutions Pvt. Ltd.

Shale gas - Global experience and key learnings |

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