Geoenvironmental Engineering

Kaniraj Shenbaga
University Malaysia Sarawak

Course Learning Objective 1

By the end of this course, students should be

able to select sustainable mitigation measures
considering the multi-disciplinary nature of the
problem and social, cultural and economic
aspects.

Risk Assessment

What is Risk?

Often taken as synonymous with hazard. But

risk has the additional implication of the
chance of a particular hazard occurring.
Hazard is a potential threat to humans and
their welfare.
Risk is the probability of a specific hazard
occurrence

Risk Types

Involuntary risks

Voluntary risks

Involuntary Risks

Most of the natural hazards are involuntary risks.

Risks not willingly undertaken.
Risks often relatively rare but can have a
catastrophic impact.
Risks may be unknown.
Risks if perceived are considered uncontrollable.

Voluntary Risks

Manmade hazards are in the category of

voluntary risks.
Risks more willingly accepted by people
through their own actions.
Have less catastrophic potential.
More susceptible to be controlled.
- Government actions safety regulations, etc.

Risk Management

Risk cannot be completely eliminated. The only

option is to manage it.
Risk management is:
- Reducing threats to life and property posed by hazards
- Simultaneously accepting unmanageable hazards

The first step in risk management is risk

assessment.

Steps in Risk Assessment

1. Identification of hazards likely to result in disasters

Determine all hazardous events that may occur (Ei). (e.g.
landslide)

2. Estimation of the risks of such events

Determine the probability of occurrence of each event (Pi).
(e.g. probability of occurrence of landslide = 5%)

3. Evaluations of the consequences of the derived risks

Determine the loss created by each event (Li). (e.g. damage
to property due to landslide = RM200,000)

Risk Analysis

=
R = Risk

p = Probability (varies from 0 to 1)

L = Loss (money, death, etc.)

Risk Analysis Example 1

The chance of occurrence of a landslide in a region is 5%

and the estimated damage that it would cause to
property is RM200,000. What is the risk (R) due to the
landslide in terms pf property loss?

p=?
L=?
R=?

Example 1 Answer

The chance of occurrence of a landslide in a region is 5%

and the estimated damage that it would cause to
property is RM200,000. The risk (R) due to the
landslide in terms pf property loss is:

p = 0.05
L = RM200,00
R = 0.05 x 200,000 = RM10,000

Risk Analysis Multiple Events

In a region, different events may occur mutually

exclusively.
- For example, in a region prone to several natural hazards,
flood may occur at some time, cyclone may occur at some
other time, and volcano may erupt at another time.

From historical database, estimate all the events (E1 Ej

En) likely to occur in a year and their corresponding
probabilities (p1 pj pn) and losses (L1 Lj Ln).
Note: The values of p and L are greater then 0.

Risk Analysis Multiple Events

Calculate:

Calculate: =

p0 = probability of events with loss L0 = 0

Risk Analysis Multiple Events

Arrange all the events in the order of increasing loss

(L0 < L1 < Li < < Ln) in a Table. Calculate cumulative
probabilities.

ProbaEvent
Loss
Cumulative probability
bility
E0
p0
L0 P0 = p0 + p1 + + pi + + pn = 1

Ei
pi
Li Pi = pi + + pn

En
pn
Ln Pn = pn

Risk Analysis Multiple Events

Total probable risk, R =

Risk due to event Ei =

Probability of risk > Li =

Risk Analysis Example 2

A region is prone to earthquake, volcano and tsunami hazards

every year with respective probabilities of 0.06, 0.08 and 0.025.
The corresponding estimated property losses are RM60 million,
RM15 million and RM45 million. The corresponding estimated
number of human death are 220, 20 and 350. Estimate:

Total probable risk in terms of money and lives

Probability of property loss > RM15 million
Probability of no loss of human lives
Risk due to tsunami in terms of money and lives

Table for Property Loss

E0

Probability
?

E1

Event

Loss*

Cumulative probability

P0 = ?

P1 = ?

E2

P2 = ?

E3

P3 = ?

E1 volcano; E2 tsunami; E3 - earthquake

*RM values in million

Table for Property Loss

E0

Probability
0.835

E1

0.080

15

P1 = 0.08 + 0.025 + 0.06 = 0.165

E2

0.025

45

P2 = 0.025 + 0.06 = 0.085

E3

0.060

60

P3 = 0.06

Event

Loss*

Cumulative probability

P0 = 0.835 + 0.08 + 0.025 + 0.06 = 1

E1 volcano; E2 tsunami; E3 - earthquake

*RM values in million

Property Loss in Terms of Money

Total probable risk

Rtotal = ?
Probability of property loss > RM15
million = ?
Risk due to tsunami = ?

Property Loss in Terms of Money

Total probable risk

Rtotal = (0.835 x 0) + (0.08 x 15) + (0.025 x 45) +
(0.06 x 60) = about RM6 million
Probability of property loss > RM15 million =
P1= 0.165
Risk due to tsunami = p2 x L2 = 0.025 x 45 =
RM1.125 million

Table for Loss of Lives

E0

Probability
0.835

E1

Event

Loss*

Cumulative probability

P0 = ?

0.080

P1 = ?

E2

0.060

P2 = ?

E3

0.025

P3 = ?

E1 volcano; E2 earthquake; E3 tsunami

*Number of human lives

Table for Loss of Lives

E0

Probability
0.835

E1

0.080

20

P1 = 0.08 + 0.06 + 0.025 = 0.165

E2

0.060

220

P2 = 0.06 + 0.025 = 0.085

E3

0.025

350

P3 = 0.025

Event

Loss*

Cumulative probability

P0 = 0.835 + 0.08 + 0.06 + 0.025 = 1

E1 volcano; E2 earthquake; E3 tsunami

*Number of human lives

Loss of Lives

Total probable risk

Rtotal = about how many lives
Probability of no loss of human lives, p0
=?
Risk due to tsunami = how many lives

Loss of Lives

Total probable risk

Rtotal = (0.835 x 0) + (0.08 x 20) + (0.06 x 220) +
(0.025 x 350) = about 24 lives
Probability of no loss of human lives = p0 =
0.835.
Risk due to tsunami = p3 x L3 = 0.025 x 350 = 9
lives

Exercise

The annual probabilities for earthquake, flood and drought

hazards in a region are 0.01, 0.075 and 0.04, respectively. The
corresponding number of human casualties are 2,500; 300;
and 1,350. The corresponding property losses are RM120
million, RM350 million and RM245 million. Estimate:

Total probable risk in terms of money and lives

Probability of property loss > RM120 million
Probability of no loss of property
Risk due to flood in terms of money and lives

Summary

Risk is the probability of occurrence of a specific

hazard.
Risk cannot be eliminated, but should be managed.
The first step in risk management is risk assessment.
The risk assessment is made from the probability and
loss associated with each hazard.

References

Smith, K. Environmental Hazards:

Assessing Risk and Reducing Disaster,
Routledge, 1996.