Centre for Open Education

MACQUARIE UNIVERSITY
NSW 2109 AUSTRALIA

ASSIGNMENT COVER SHEET

(For Open Universities Australia students)
Office Use Only
**

Unit Code

PHI120

Assignment No.

Unit Name CRITICAL THINKING

COE USE ONLY

Date Received

Assignment Title Assesment Task 2

Due Date

Fri 28th october 2011

Contact Info

403424484

joseph.zizys@gmail.com

Word Count:

Turnitin No.:

(If Applicable)

(If Applicable)

ACADEMIC HONESTY DECLARATION (this is very important please read carefully):

By placing my name in this document I declare that:

This assessment is my own work, based on my personal study and/or research;

I have acknowledged all material and sources used in the preparation of this assessment, including
any material generated in the course of my employment;
If this assessment was based on collaborative preparatory work, as approved by the teachers of the
unit, I have not submitted substantially the same final version of any material as another student;
Neither the assessment, nor substantial parts of it, have been previously submitted for assessment
in this or any other institution;
I have not copied in part, or in whole, or otherwise plagiarised the work of other students;
I have read and I understand the criteria used for assessment;
The assessment is within the word and page limits specified in the unit outline;
The use of any material in this assessment does not infringe the intellectual property / copyright of a
third party;
I understand that this assessment may undergo electronic detection for plagiarism, and a copy of the
assessment may be retained in a database and used to make comparisons with other assessments
in future. Work retained in a database is anonymous and will not be able to be matched to an

individual student;
I take full responsibility for the correct submission of this assessment in the appropriate place with
the correct cover sheet attached and I have retained a duplicate copy of this assessment

This declaration is a summary of the University policy on plagiarism. For the policy in full,
please refer to Student Information in the Handbook or
http://www.mq.edu.au/academichonesty
Student Name:

Zizys

Joseph

Student Number: 42351979

Date:

27/10/2011

Joseph Zizys

Assessment Task 2 (30%)

Available:
Monday of Week 7, after 9am (EST)
Due:
Friday of Week 9, by 5pm (EST)
Answer all questions. This assessment task is out of 30 marks, and is worth 30% of the
assessment for the course.
QUESTION 1 [5 marks]
For the following argument, identify the sample, population and the property being
extended from the sample to the population. Then evaluate the argument, considering
relevant issues such as the adequacy of the sample and the research methods used.
Conclude your evaluation with a statement as to whether the overall conclusion drawn from
the survey is justified.
Most adults were surprised by the number of teenaged girls who recently crammed the
streets of Sydney to catch a glimpse of Justin Bieber, a 16 year old pop sensation who
most of us had never even heard of. Interestingly, though, but the survey we conducted
last week showed that amongst those thousands of girls who were out last week to see
him, at least, he is more than just a pretty face: they were there because they think he's
genuinely talented. Wandering through the crowd, we asked more than 100 of the girls
waiting for him who they thought was the most talented musician in the world, and literally
all of them nominated Bieber! Even if we don't agree with their taste, it's good to know that
when they decided to queue in such numbers to see him, it was out of an appreciation for
his music.
The sample is the 100 girls who where asked who the most talented artist in the world
was. The property being extended was the beeif that Beiber was the most talented
musician in the world. and the population the property was extended to was the thousands

of girls cramming the streets. The argument seems spurious, because while the sample
was probably adequate, being somewhere between 1 and ten percent of the population
assuming that thousands referred to at least one thousand and at most ten, the research
method was week. The question asked sought the name of a musician attributable with a
positive state, since all the girls where in the street to see a musician that they loved they
where bound to answer Beiber! to almost any question, possibly even questions
unrelated to musicians, like What day is it? Bieber!, or, Whats your favorite color?
Beiber! The population, and the sample within it, was self selecting. And probably
hysterical.

QUESTION 2 [4 marks]
What does it mean to say that a sample is representative of a population? Think of a
generalisation that might be drawn from statistical research, and give an example of one
method of sample selection that could have been used in that research that would be likely
to give a representative sample, and one method that would be likely to give an
unrepresentative sample. Explain your answers.
A sample that is representative is one in which the properties under examination extend
quantitatively to the population. So if a thousand people report a 1 percent rate of a certain
cancer, and the rate of that cancer is 1 percent across the whole population, that sample is
representative. Take as an example peoples satisfaction with their internet speeds. A
method of selecting a sample more likely to be representative in the cancer case would be
to interview people selected from the phonebook at random and distributed at random
across post codes throughout the population area. An alternative method might be to
doornock a single suburb, but this might give a misleading sample if the internet speeds in
that geographic area are very high or very low, dispersing the sample geographically
militates against this potential source of error.

QUESTION 3 [5 marks]
In the following argument identify, where possible, the following features: the causal claim
being tested; the sample, the population; the test group and the control group; whether
these groups were actively or passively selected. Then evaluate the argument. Is the
overall conclusion justified?
New research conducted by the Institute for Fabulous Hair has found that our new haircare
range, TruShine gives you truly fabulous hair! The research involved 100 women aged
between 18 and 70, who complained of having tired, lifeless hair. We asked half of them to
try TruShine shampoo and conditioner, while the other half were given the leading
competitor. In each case, products were presented in plain packaging, so that none of the
women knew which brand they were trying. After three weeks, in which participants
washed their hair once a day, the group who were using our product had hair that was 27%

shinier, 31% softer, and 46% more beautiful than the other group. The results speak for
themselves!
The causal claim being tested id if TruShine causes truly fabulous hair.
The sample, is 100 women 18-70 who complained of having tired, lifeless hair
The population is all women 18-70 with tired, lifeless hair
The test group was the 50 women who used TruShine
The control group where the 50 women who used the competitor
It is not possible to determine from the information given whether these groups were
actively or passively selected. The test does appear to be blind, but it is certaintly not
double-blind, which is the gold standard for hair-care evaluation today.
The argument is manifestly spurious, the percentage improvements are not asserted to be
the result of subjective reporting from the women but are stated as objective fact, the
conclusions are not justified because there is no connexion between the experiment
conducted and the results.

QUESTION 4 [4 marks]
Give an example of one causal claim that would be best tested using actively selected
test/groups and control groups, and one that would be best tested using passive selection.
Explain your answer
The effectivness of a preventative medical treatment might be tested using actively
selected test and control groups, for example determining if, all else being equal, asprin
reduces the rate of heart attack, the sample could be actively divided using a random
method. However if you wanted to test something like whether being a child migrant
increased the incidence of schizophrenia in adulthood versus being 3rd generation of more
native, you would need to select your two groups passively, as it would not be possible to
take a random set of people and chase half of them overseas to start families.

QUESTION 5 [3 marks]
After the Christmas holidays, Horace notices that his clothes are too small, and his weight,
according to his scales, seems to have gone up. He concludes that his clothes have
shrunk and his scales have broken. What kind of reasoning is he attempting to use, and
why is his argument not a good one?
Horace attempts to use inductive reasoning to make an inference to the best explanation,
that is he seeks explications for what might have caused the changes in his environment.
His argument is week because it lacks simplicity, for example, weight gain might explain
both facts (ill-fitting cloths and scales reading). He could also test his inference by weighing
something of a fixed weight on the scales, like a kilo of sugar, to see if they are really

broken, and could test his inference that that his cloths have shrunk by comparing them to
other cloths of the same marked size. his inference is therefore eminently testable, and
probably false. I dont know him personally though, so maybe hes right, strange things
happen.
QUESTION 6 [4 marks]
Give an example of
(i) a descriptive analogical argument, and
(ii) a normative analogical argument
each based on an analogy between the global financial crisis and climate change. Explain
what makes (i) descriptive and (ii) normative.
Climate change is the product of natural human inclinations to use resources without limit,
we can be certain that climate change will continue to grow worse and worse if left
unchecked. Similarly the financial crisis is the product of natural human greed, it will also
get worse if left unchecked.
This is a descriptive analogy that asserts that both things are similar in their cause and
therefore will have similar continuations.
During the financial crisis the government decisively intervened to recapitalize the banks
and thus averted a depression. We now face another crisis, of climate change, and the
government again need to intervene decisively to avert a climate disaster.
This is a normative analogy, in that it does not assert that the two crisis are similar in their
causes and so on but rather simply that the government should act in a similar manner in
response to both.

QUESTION 7 [5 marks]
Identify an analogical argument in the following passage. Identify the primary subject and
analogue, the stated similarities between them and the conclusion that is drawn on the
basis of their similarity. Evaluate the analogical argument. Is it descriptive or normative?
Why?
In Australia, young people are allowed to start learning to drive, under supervision, at the
age of 16. They are not allowed to drive alone until they're at least 17, and even after that
there are restrictions on their driving for the next few years. It is recognised that driving is a
dangerous activity, and that is why they are introduced to driving gradually over a period of
years to allow them time to develop appropriate skills and a high level of responsibility
before they are allowed to drive on their own. A similar policy should be introduced for
alcohol consumption. Currently, no-one under the age of 18 is allowed to drink at all, but
once they are 18 they can drink whatever they like, with or without supervision.

Responsible drinking habits could be much better developed if people were allowed to start
drinking in company at 16. Just as drivers are restricted (eg they can't drive Turbocharged
cars while they're learning), young people could perhaps be restricted to alcopops and
other diluted drinks while they're learning. This would foster more responsible drinking
habits.
The analogy here is between driving a car and drinking alcohol. Drinking alcohol is the
primary subject and driving a car is the analogue, the similarities between them are the
fact that both are dangerous and forbidden below a certain age. The conclusion that is
drawn on the basis of this similarity is that drinking should be introduced piecemeal over a
period of years the same way driving is introduced piecemeal over an extended time. The
argument is sound, it uses an analogy that is both descriptive, in that it asserts a structural
similarity between the two situations of becoming a driver and becoming a drinker, and
normative in that it also advocates that changes should be made to one of the situations to
make the analogy more complete.