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STRATEGIC ASSESSMENT
1999
Priorities for a Turbulent World
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Strategic
Assessment 1999
Priorities for a Turbulent World
NATIONAL DEFENSE UNIVERSITY
INSTITUTE FOR NATIONAL STRATEGIC STUDIES
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Kori Schake
Fort Lesley J. McNair, Washington, DC 203195066
Phone: (202) 6853838; Fax: (202) 6853972
Cleared for public release. Distribution unlimited.
Digital imagery on pages ii and iii courtesy of NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center,
Earth Sciences Directorate
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Preface
security environment. With events like the NAT O intervention in Kosovo, tension between
India and Pakistan, more failing states, and rising access to dangerous weapons and delivery
systems, the job for Department of Defense planners has not become easier. T he National Dehe past
year has seen
thresholds
andDepartment
turning points
reached through
in the international
fense University
contributes
to anmany
ongoing
dialoguecrossed
with the
of Defense
Strategic
Assessment, an annual publication that applies the expertise of this institution through the leadership of
its interdisciplinary research arm, the Institute for National Strategic Studies, with the assistance of specialists from elsewhere in government and academe. Offering such analyses, in both general and particular areas of interest to the national security community, is an important aspect of the NDU mission.
T his volume examines trends, U.S. interests, and consequences for U.S. policy, followed by a net
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INMEMORIAM
Paul Kreisberg
19291999
Paul Kreisberg was a valued friend of the Institute for National Strategic Studies
and the author of the South Asian chapter of this years Strategic Assessment. He
had a distinguished career as a Foreign Service Officer and scholar. We will
remember him not only for his many intellectual contributions, but also for his
inquiring mind and his keen wit. We will miss him greatly.
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Foreword
By HANS BINNENDIJK and RICHARD KUGLER
icy? T his critical question is the subject of Strategic Assessment 1999. Four years ago,
Strategic Assessment 1995 was optimistic about the future. At the time, the world seemed
headed toward peace, marred by modest troubles on the fringe of an enlarging demothe world
are the
consequences
for U.S. national security polcratic community. here
Sinceisthen,
globalheaded,
trends and
havewhat
changed
in worrisome
ways.
During the past year, violence in the Balkans engaged U.S. forces in combat operations, U.S. rela-
tions with China declined significantly, Russia continued its drift away from integration with the West,
Asias economic problems caused political unrest and spread to two other continents, India and Pakistan detonated nuclear devices, rogue states tested new delivery systems for weapons of mass destruction, and tribal conflicts continued unabated in Africa.
T he four sections and twenty chapters of Strategic Assessment 1999 offer an updated examination of
global trends and their consequences for U.S. interests and policies. T hey do not lay down a fixed blueprint or advocate particular policy responses but instead seek to analyze the critical issues in what we
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hope are insightful and balanced ways. T heir aim is to make readers better informed, so they can make
their own independent judgment.
Strategic Assessment 1999 articulates the central theme that, because the world is becoming murkier
and more dangerous, the United States will need to continue with an energetic policy of engagement.
T his theme has two components. T he first is that recent negative events should be kept in perspective.
While the future may be more tumultuous than had been expected, the world is not irretrievably
headed toward a global free-fall of chaos and conflict. Instead, the future is seen as up for grabscapable of evolving toward good, or ill, or most likely, in between. It will be shaped by the interplay of integrative and disintegrative dynamics. Above all, it can be influenced by the United States and its allies.
T he second component is that, owing to rapid changes ahead, the United States probably faces a
growing challenge to its national security. T hat challenge will require the nation to retain a high level of
defense preparedness, and to continually review its strategic priorities. U.S. security functionsshaping, responding, and preparingmay need to be conducted differently than today. T hey may lead to
policy departures in key regions and new tasks confronting the United States and its allies.
T his volume was edited with intellectual guidance and management from Kori Schake and
Charles Shotwell. Its chapters were written by members of the Institute for National Strategic Studies
and outside experts. T he editors and authors express their appreciation for the many military officers,
civilian officials, and other analysts who provided thoughtful comments.
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T he authors are:
FACING A CHANGING WORLD
1. Global Political T rends: Integration or Disintegration? Richard L. Kugle r, INSS
2. Economic Globalization: Stability or Conflict? Elle n L. Frost, Institute for International Economics
3. Energy and Resources: Ample or Scarce? Patrick M. Clawson, Washington Institute for Near
East Policy
4. Global Military Balance: Stable or Unstable? Richard L. Kugle r, INSS
HANDLING REGIONAL DYNAMICS
5. Europe: How Much Unity, How Effective? Jame s Swihart, INSS
6. Russia and its Neighbors: Faltering Progress? Jame s H. Brusstar, INSS
7. Greater Middle East: Managing Change in Troubled Times? Judith S. Yaphe , INSS
8. Asia-Pacific Region: Murky Future? Ronald N. Montape rto, INSS
9. South Asia: Nuclear Geopolitics? Paul Kre isbe rg, U.S. Department of State (Ret.)
10. Sub-Saharan Africa: Progress or Drift? Robe rt B. O akle y, INSS, and Je ndayi Fraz ie r, Harvard
University
11. T he Western Hemisphere: Rethinking a Strategic Relationship? John A. Cope , INSS
DEALING WIT H KEY COUNT RIES
12. T he Democratic Core: How Large, How Effective? Richard L. Kugle r and Je ffre y Simon, INSS
13. T ransition States: New Destinies? She rman W. Garne tt, Carnegie Endowment for International
Peace
14. Rogue States and Proliferation: How Serious is the Threat? Kori Schake , INSS
15. T roubled States: How Troubling, How Manageable? Michae l J. Dz ie dz ic, INSS
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Special thanks go to Michael ONeill, former INSS Fellow (now Counselor for Politico-Military
Affairs at the British Embassy), for his contributions to the Democratic Core chapter; to CAPT Mark
Rosen, USN, for his inputs to the Oceans and Space chapter; to Ambassador Robert B. Oakley for the
terrorism section in the T ransnational T rends chapter; to LtCol T om Linn (USMC, Ret.) for his editorial
input and review; to Adam S. Posen and Kimberly A. Elliott, Institute for International Economics, and
David Denoon, New York University, for their contributions to the chapter on Economic Globalization;
to Jock Covey for his text box on Kosovo in the Europe chapter; to Don Herr for his text box on the
NAT O Summit; to Sue Fuchs for office support; to the T ypography and Design Division at the U.S.
Government Printing Office for the graphics, layout, and design of this publication; and finally, to the
editorial staff of the INSS Publication Directorate, under the supervision of Robert A. Silano, who
proofed the final version of the volume and saw it through the final stages of production.
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Contents
Key Findings . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
xi
CHAPT E RT W O
19
CHAPT E RT HRE E
39
CHAPT E RFOUR
55
69
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89
CHAPT E RSE VE N
101
CHAPT E RE IGHT
121
CHAPT E RNINE
139
CHAPT E RT E N
153
CHAPT E RE L E VE N
169
189
CHAPT E RT HIRT E E N
205
CHAPT E RFOURT E E N
219
CHAPT E RFIFT E E N
229
CHAPT E RSIXT E E N
245
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CHAPT E RE IGHT E E N
277
CHAPT E RNINE T E E N
289
CHAPT E RT W E NT Y
301
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Key Findings
A
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in which the overall level of instability and danger increases greatly. Although this scenario is
by how the United States and its key allies act. For
Key Trends
T he past year has witnessed multiple negative events, including the Asian economic crisis,
increased assertiveness by Iraq and North Korea,
tension with China, failed reforms in Russia, nuclear and missile tests in South Asia, mounting
fear of proliferation elsewhere, and war in the
Balkans. U.S. forces have conducted combat operations in both the Persian Gulf and the
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S T RAT E GICAS S E S S ME NT 1999
Regional Prospects
Historically, Europe has been a source of
global conflict. T oday, Europe is uniting on the
principles of democracy, market economics, and
multinational institutions. Both NAT O and the
European Union (EU) are adapting internally
while enlarging eastward. While they face tough
agendas, their long-term prospects for success
are good. A principal issue will be whether the
European countries can surmount their internal
preoccupations to work with the United States
and NAT O to project stability outward, in Europe and beyond. T he future is in doubt, but
progress at the Washington Summit of 1999 is a
good sign, provided key initiatives are implemented. Benefiting from Western enlargement,
Northcentral Europe is making strides toward
democracy, stability, and prosperity. T hree new
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S T RAT E GICAS S E S S ME NT 1999
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strains. Criminal organizations and drug exporters have planted roots. Guerrillas and local
Key Actors
Led by the United States, the community of
market democracies will remain a powerful actor
on the global stage. T he great question is
whether it will project its values and strengths
outward into endangered regions. T he spread of
democracy is uncertain. T oday, over one-half of
the worlds nearly 200 countries are democratic
to some degree. Yet, many are only in the early
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pared to continue being involved in their internal affairs. When this is the case, efforts to mount
an effective response will require the integration
of civil and military assets.
T roubled states help breed the conditions
that create growing threats by transnational actors, such as terrorists, drug traffickers, organized crime, and refugees. Many of these threats
affect U.S. interests, and some pose a menace to
the U.S. homeland. T errorists increasingly lack
political ideals and are often driven by religious
motives and nihilism. Organized crime has
grown recently, and drug trafficking has become
a hugely profitable business. T o a degree, these
threats are merging through cooperation and are
taking hold in some governments as a principal
determinant of state behavior. Owing to the new
focus on homeland defense, U.S. forces may be
used increasingly in dealing with them.
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S T RAT E GICAS S E S S ME NT 1999
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be as difficult as it is important.
Control of space and the oceans is also growing in importance. Not only is the United States
Consequences for
U.S. Interests and
Policies
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the future.
in unresolvable situations.
upon U.S.-Russian relations. T he forums for addressing new-era problems have been the NonProliferation T reaty, the Missile T echnology Control Regime, the chemical and biological
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that policy and strategy can be carried out effectively. Furthermore, the future will demand the
Engaging Globally
Current trends reinforce the need for the
United States to stay engaged abroad, rather
than retreat into isolationism. T he key issue is
how and where to engage. Even though the
United States is the worlds sole superpower, it
cannot succeed if it acts unilaterally. A strategy
that combines U.S. leadership with multilateral
activities is needed, for strong support from allies and friends will be critical to meeting future
challenges. For multilateralism to work, U.S. and
allied policies will need to be harmonized.
Middle East and Asia. Consequently, U.S. strategy will need to handle the turbulent security affairs of all three regions, while advancing U.S. interests in Africa and Latin America. Moreover,
future U.S. strategy will no longer be able to
view these regions as fundamentally separate
from each other. Growing interdependency
means that political and economic events in one
theater have strong ripple effects in other theaters. Also, opponents of U.S. interests in different theaters are beginning to cooperate with each
other. T he need for the United States often to
draw upon forces and resources from one theater
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U.S. global strategy must be anchored in integrated policies toward key actors. U.S. policy
U.S. policy cannot hope to resolve the problems of all troubled states, but it can focus on alleviating critical situations where practical steps
will succeed. An effective U.S. strategy will focus
on averting collapse of key troubled states, miti-
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gating humanitarian disasters, carrying out necessary peacekeeping missions, and building effective governmental institutions over the long haul.
Handling transnational threats will need to
be upgraded in U.S. strategy and pursued in systematic ways, for these threats are not only
growing in themselves, but also are starting to
affect larger patterns of interstate relations. An
even stronger U.S. interagency effort focused on
assembling coordinated policies toward terrorism, organized crime, and drug trafficking will
be needed.
sis in the sense of focusing heavily on the endangered strategic arc stretching from Europe, across
the Soviet Union, and into Northeast Asia.
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S T RAT E GICAS S E S S ME NT 1999
to the backwaters.
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Managing European security is key to a successful global strategy, because, if Europe is sta-
calls for U.S. policies that not only aim for eco-
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times, frustrating.
In the Greater Middle East, current U.S. pol-
will be needed.
goals in this turbulent region promises to be difficult. T he local situation defies easy solution,
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growing requirement.
that are coherent in their own right and interlocked with U.S. foreign policy and global strate-
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Future U.S defense requirements will depend on which of the three previously discussed
scenarios unfolds. If the world becomes more
dangerous in major ways, U.S. military requirements could increase significantly. Even short of
this, stronger U.S. forces will be needed to deal
with the new military and strategic environment.
T he prospect of weapons of mass destruction
proliferating into the hands of rogues could require new strike forces and defense assets. Adversary forces developing better conventional
forces will make it harder for U.S forces to win regional wars at low cost. Consequently, the importance of the RMA will increase, as will the importance of mobility, readiness, sustainment, and
modern weapons. Strong U.S. forces will be
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Net Assessment
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