Documenti di Didattica
Documenti di Professioni
Documenti di Cultura
London
3 October 2012
Contents
key information
Standard Offshore
current issues
club development
Key metrics
GT Millions
$ Million
150
400
350
125
300
250
100
200
150
75
100
50
50
0
2007
2008
2009
Tonnage
2010
2011
Free Reserves
2012
Premium
2011 figures are restated to take into account the re-organisation of the Standard Clubs
5
2013
forecast
Asset allocation
As at 20 September 2012
5 6
3
1
Sovereign bonds
43.9%
Corporate bonds
30.7%
Equities
14.9%
Alternatives
2.7%
Cash
7.0%
Gold
0.8%
Investment return
%
20
18
15
10
5
9.9
8.6
6.7
3
0
-5
-10
-17.4
-15
-20
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Standard Offshore
100
80
60
40
79
79
2011
2012
83
68
53
20
0
2009
2010
12
Oct-12
15
Units
GT M
1500
Tonnage
Units
1,245
1250
1,134
10
989
1,036
1000
845
14.6
5
10.9
12.3
14.7
750
12.9
500
250
0
0
2009
2010
2011
13
2012
Oct-12
Contracts reviewed
700
600
660
500
545
400
427
300
200
360
293
100
0
2009
2010
2011
14
2012
Oct-12
Standard Offshore
Offshore Director
Robert Dorey
Underwriting
Claims
Singapore
Support
Underwriters
John Croucher
Claire Wheeler
+1
Syndicate Claims
Director
Fabien Lerede
Offshore Regional
Claims Director
Sharmini Murugason
Nikki Morton
Deputy Underwriters
Joseph Divis
Sian Meadows
Underwriting Assistants
Hannah Day
Brendan Pir
Celia Harrison
Claims Director
Ursula ODonnell
Claims Executives
Rupert Banks
Roger Johnson
Leanne OLoughlin
15
Current issues
renewal
reinsurance
Solvency II
piracy
fines
sanctions
16
Club development
new covers:
kidnap and ransom cover
traders transport cover
professional liability cover
17
UK Continental Shelf
What Future?
Standard Offshore Forum,
3rd October 2012
David Odling,
Energy Policy Manager,
Oil & Gas UK
By Fuel
Quadrillion BTUs
700
Quadrillion BTUs
700
600
600
Res/Comm
500
Biomass
Nuclear
500
Industrial
400
300
Transportation
200
300
Gas
200
Power Generation
100
0
1980
Coal
400
2005
2030
Oil
100
0
1980
2005
2030
Other Renewables
100
Nuclear
Hydro
80
Gas
60
Oil
40
20
Coal
Biomass
1800
1850
1900
1950
2000
2040
26
27
28
29
Clarkson Research
Fixed
Platform
(FP)
500 M
Compliant
Tower
(CT)
500 to
1000 M
Floating
Production
System
(FPS)
500 to
2000 M
Tension Leg
Platform
(TLP)
500 to
2400 M
Sub-sea
(SS)
System
to 2400 M
Spar (SP)
Platform
600 to
3000 M
Agenda
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
Market Trends
Offshore and the Energy Markets
Offshore Oil & Gas Production
Offshore Regional Trends
Offshore Fleet & Structures
Conclusions
Leading Indicators
Leading Indicators of Offshore Activity
MDU Orderbook
Deepwater Rig Utilisation
AHTS 5yo>NB Premium
Oil Price
Gas Price
Barclays E&P
IEA LT Energy Dem F'cast
Rig Moves, latest quarter
Oil Price Forecast, long term
Current
$140/bl
New
$118/bl
450
$92/bl
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
current policies
scenario: price pushed
up to $140/barrel in
2035 (at 2011 constant
prices)
New policies take the
price down to
$113/barrel
The Carbon 450
Scenario takes the
price down to
$90/barrel
Brent $/bbl
Jan-05
Jul-05
Jan-06
Jul-06
Jan-07
Jul-07
Jan-08
Jul-08
Jan-09
Jul-09
Jan-10
Jul-10
Jan-11
Jul-11
Jan-12
Jul-12
$2009/bbl
150
140
130
120
110
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
$ per barrel
Production
Oil Price (2009 $s)
140
120
2000s
This boom
accompanied
the oil price
rise
1970s
This offshore
boom followed
the 1973 Oil
Crisis
100
80
60
40
20
2011
2008
2005
2002
1999
1996
1993
1990
1987
1984
1981
1978
1975
1972
1969
1966
1963
0
<=1960*
1,000
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
Development
Support
Year of Build
Figure 2: Age profile of mobile offshore fleet (11,678 structures) on 1 Sep 2012
CLARKSON RESEARCH SERVICES LTD
Offshore oil is
driven by high oil
prices and trends
in oil demand
Oil
33%
0.8%
0.8%
0.5%
1.0%
1.4%
1.5%
1.0%
Gas
24%
2.2%
1.8%
1.4%
1.6%
2.2%
1.8%
0.9%
2.4%
2.1%
8.9%
4.0%
1980
10%
3%
13%
Source: CRSL
2010
10%
8%
18%
2020
11%
10%
21%
What is the
future for
offshore oil &
gas?
35
30
Oil
Gas
20
15
10
5
0
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
M B o ep d
25
West Africa
Asia Pacific
Sth America
NW Europe
forecast
?
Stagnation
25
20
15
10
2020
2015
2010
2005
2000
1995
1990
1985
5
1980
Million BPD
Production fell
between 2005 and
2010, but we
expected growth to
30m bpd the next five
years
South America,
Middle East and West
Africa contribute the
most absolute
growth.
North Sea & US Gulf
steady or declining
but still important.
Asia Pacific
Middle East
Med
NW Europe
West Africa
South America
North America
175
150
125
100
75
50
25
Source: CRSL
2019
2020
2016
2017
2018
2013
2014
2015
2010
2011
2012
2007
2008
2009
2004
2005
2006
0
2000
2001
2002
2003
mmcfd
3,000
2,700
2,400
Offshore Oil
Discoveries
1,800
1,500
1,200
900
600
300
2012
2007
2002
1997
1992
1987
1982
1977
0
1972
Water Depth
2,100
Offshore Gas
Discoveries
CLARKSON RESEARCH SERVICES LTD
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
800
700
Million BPD
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
1,000
900
Start-Ups
Discoveries
600
500
400
300
30
200
Deepwater (>500m)
Shallow Water (<500m)
25
100
20
15
10
5
300
250
200
150
100
50
2010
2005
2000
1995
1990
1985
1980
1975
1970
0
1965
Number of Vessels
50%
45%
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
% of the fleey
DP in each year
Source: CRSL
Development trends
help identify future
investment needs
2. S&C
America
Offshore:2
.9 m bpd
Growth:
2% pa
5. Med/ Caspian
Offshore: 2.1 m
bpd
Growth: 3% pa
3. West
Africa
Offshore:
4.5 m bpd
Growth:
4% pa
6. M East
& India
Offshore:
6.7 m bpd
Growth:
2% pa
7. Asia
Pacific
Offshore: 3.4
m bpd
Growth: 1%
pa
Producing
Region
USA Gulf of Mexico
Mexico Gulf of Mexico
EC Canada
USA West Coast
USA Alaska
N AMERICA
EC Sth America
Caribbean
WC Sth America
S&C AMERICA
West Africa
South Africa
AFRICA
North Sea
Western Europe
Russian Arctic
Baltic
N&W EUROPE
Mediterranean
Caspian/Black Sea
MEDITERRANEAN
Middle East
Indian Subcontinent
East Africa
MIDDLE EAST/ISC
SE Asia
Aus tralasia
China
Russian Far East
Japan / Korea
ASIA PACIFIC
TOTAL
Americas
Africa
Europe
Middle East/ISC
Asia Pacific
Other
MOPU
42
Subsea
184
1
1
2
24
42
8
186
24
2
24
24
8
7
1
8
13
26
44
6
50
224
6
2
24
17
17
1
1
14
Ext.
Reach
9
1
1
3
14
7
9
16
7
7
106
6
1
1
6
13
3
2
10
1
232
31
7
38
1
1
2
4
40
22
15
22
11
77
58
91
88
613
226
29%
26%
20%
1%
24%
57%
9%
19%
2%
13%
35%
8%
44%
1%
13%
13%
3%
56%
2%
26%
1
1
3
3
1
1
113
12
2
14
3
1
4
32
15
9
2
Fixed
634
55
7
15
13
724
40
46
21
107
242
1
243
264
13
1
278
149
29
178
64
24
88
297
46
83
3
2
431
2,049
41%
12%
22%
4%
21%
FPSO,
95
Other
Other, 47
1
5
6
3
4
7
11
11
2
2
4
10
14
4
4
2
1
3
47
28%
23%
34%
9%
6%
Fixed,
2049
Other
Mobile,
88
Subsea,
613
Ext.
Reach,
226
Over 3,000
producing fields.
Brazil biggest FPSO
market, followed by
Asia Pacific.
North Sea largest
subsea market in
numbers terms.
CLARKSON RESEARCH SERVICES LTD
DD
Ratio
Large
Fields
5502159
3864122
2222884
783011
491470
474176
447588
241395
201554
191208
7
1
5
1
2
1
1
20
38
Country
Petrobras
BP
Chevron
Total
Shell
ExxonMobil
QGEP
Statoil
Anadarko
Hess
ONGC
Helix
Maersk Oil
Apache
Eni
Others (78)
Total
No
23
10
9
13
13
11
2
13
2
2
26
1
1
5
7
155
293
1,215
895
952
824
630
446
1,550
266
1,086
1,189
78
823
1,355
370
540
DD Ratio
4,678,005
1,473,856
1,277,752
1,167,488
938,778
804,056
573,500
436,440
391,258
313,598
201,529
189,265
186,990
180,137
158,415
No of Large
Fields
6
5
2
2
3
20
38
CLARKSON RESEARCH SERVICES LTD
United States
Brazil
Angola
Nigeria
Australia
Indonesia
Cyprus
Malaysia
United Kingdom
Mozambique
Norway
Tanzania
China P.R.
Russia
Ghana
Others (15)
Total
220
176
122
106
224
126
152
101
126
38.5
159
85
205.5
283
56
1,738
1,374
1,239
1,303
481
568
1696
763
297
1724
263
1400
257
320
1427
DDR
3,824,480
1,689,844
1,355,588
1,100,115
861,761
285,704
257,792
230,527
186,390
132,748
125,555
119,000
105,627
90,560
79,912
CAPEX
(USD M)
where
Oil
Reserves
(MM Bbl)
Gas
Reserves
(Bcf)
16,000
69,895
31,500
30,300
36,440
30,500
4,303
13,500
122
660
2,677
4,000
50,157
58,600
3,000
18,492
50,000
6,000
20,000
808
1,103
1,950
879
2000
1,550
78
240
15000
4,000
134200
400
What structures
will be needed?
$000/day
Bill $
Orders
45
Support Vessels
Logistics
Production
Construction
Drilling
Survey
Earnings
60
50
40
30
50
40
35
30
25
20
15
20
10
10
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
0
2000
Plus 7971
fixed
platforms
200
400
800
Number of Vessels
1000
Support for
Platforms
& development
1200
10
20
Seismic
16
Hydrographic 1
13
Research
21
Jack Up <300'
Jack UP >300'
Semi Sub<5000'
15
Semi Sub >5000'
Drill Ship
7
Crane Vessels
14
Pipe layer
12
Cable laying
21
Heavy Lift
27
Accommodation
58
Other support
38
FPSO
5
Semi1
Jack Up
TLP/Spar 7
Floating storage 6
28
Shuttle Tankers
SPMs 19
221
Anchor handling
361
PSV/Support
21
Rescue &
30
40
50
60
70
% Fleet on order
80
Fixed Platform
2.2% on order
Survey
73
Mobile
Drilling
6
67
Construction
Production
Oil logistics
Support
vessels
3
8
51
3
18
4
1
1
2
1
46
1
1
3
38
9
6
72
1
1
2
1
3
1
2
1
1
4
15
6
8
2
124
1
4
2
2
21
20
21
341
105
104
97
80
71
66
49
50
29
992
18
20
17
15
11
10
9
8
8
8
124
60
1,176
29%
9%
9%
8%
7%
6%
6%
4%
4%
2%
84%
2%
2%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
11%
5%
100%
6
227
12
4
3
4
5
1
3
5
3
195
77
30
6
2
15
36
43
12
10
10
71
3
21
7
27
14
1
9
7
5
2
79
3
13
2
8
17
1
51
2
4
2
1
83
21
5
2
58
13
4
30
% of Total
87
2
17
2
52
16
4
3
15
14
11
1
2
Utility Support
2
4
3
8
16
1
5
2
7
22
3
Resucue &
Salvage
7
11
16
8
PSV/Supply
<3,000 dwt
1
1
AHTS >8,000
bhp
16
1
Logistics
Dredgers
MSV/DSV/
ROV Support
Construction
Vessel/Barge
12
Support
PSV/Supply
>3,000 dwt
13
1
2
2
5
2
1
10
2
187
23
1
6
6
5
2
Production
Mobile Offs.
Production
2
4
3
3
41
29
50
47
5
Accommodation
Lift Boat/
Installation
China P.R.
Brazil
South Korea
Singapore
India
Norw ay
United States
Malaysia
U.A.E.
Indonesia
Total Top 10
Netherlands
Japan
Spain
Russia
Vietnam
Germany
Hong Kong
Poland
Finland
Italy
Total 11-20
Others (16)
Global Total
Mobile Offs.
Drilling
Builder
Country
Survey
Development
Total of
Mobile
Offshore
1
5
58
3
2
9
4
1
51
2
11
4
53
1
3
3
78
1
15
4
143
2
7
2
4
36
15
278
6
4
2
3
4
12
57%
1
3
1
2
1
17
63%
2
1
55
95%
2
3
2
8
27%
1
1
22
11%
10
14%
28
53%
1
1
7
1
5
24%
1
2
5
19%
1
3
5%
1
11%
5
1
2
12
24%
1
5
30
16
195
5
3
7
72
87%
1
217
78%
17
4
4
4
2
6
5
2
17
13
12
8
7
13
132
92%
1
2
1
53
68%
13
3
4
2
1
4
15
28%
1
24
31%
32
6
6
1
10
48%
2
3
52
90%
1
3
1
1
8
6%
33
12%
3
4%
5
24%
1
2
2
3
2
2
2
1
6
3
1
2
22
71
4
21
5
27
58
2
9
2
51
10
53
1
78
3
143
28
278
8
83
4
6
21
6
58
181
158
131
98
97
62
57
41
40
39
904
15%
13%
11%
8%
8%
5%
5%
3%
3%
3%
77%
34
25
19
15
14
14
10
8
8
7
154
3%
2%
2%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
13%
6
6
5
5
5
4
4
4
118
1,176
1%
1%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
10%
100%
Fixed Structures*
3
9
5
18
17
12
1
4
3
55
Utility Support
55
74
18
28
14
12
12
3
18
3
16
1
1
1
2
2
2
2
1
37
73%
1
2
8
2
3
4
4
6
67%
8
4
AHTS >8,000
bhp
6
8
1
13
1
Logistics
Mobile Offs.
Production
MSV/DSV/
ROV Support
5
3
11
5
5
1
3
Dredgers
Accommodation
24
1
5
% of Total
1
4
1
7
157
81%
1
6
6
10
5
39
55%
4
2
7
Resucue &
Salvage
17
57%
9
3
8
2
1
1
PSV/Supply
<3,000 dwt
1
4
3
1
5
2
Support
PSV/Supply
>3,000 dwt
40
44
17
29
Production
Lift Boat/
Installation
5
5
1
Construction
Vessel/Barge
Norw ay
United States
Singapore
Brazil
France
India
Malaysia
China P.R.
Netherlands
U.A.E.
Total Top 10
Share of Total
Hong Kong
United Kingdom
Russia
Nigeria
Greece
Italy
Denmark
Japan
Germany
Canada
Total 11-20
Share of Total
Australia
Qatar
South Korea
Cyprus
Vietnam
Mexico
Saudi Arabia
Algeria
Others (18)
GLOBAL TOTAL
Mobile Offs.
Drilling
Owner
Country
Survey
Development
Total all
Types
Total of
Mobile
Offshore
2
23
2
16
9
7
10
1
11
81
46%
7
4
2
14
8%
1
1
7
9
40
83
178
No. end yr
Support
Production
Development
% Fleet Growth (RHS)
14,000
% change
Development
9%
Production
8%
12,000
8%
Support
7%
10,000
6%
8,000
6%
5%
4%
6,000
4%
3%
4,000
2%
2,000
2%
1%
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
0%
2007
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
0%
2006
6. Conclusions
Despite price and environment concerns, most forecasts continue to show
energy demand growth. Forecasts average 1.0% for oil and 1.8% for gas.
Offshore meets 21% of global energy needs and we expect this to
increase in a high price environment.
We forecast offshore oil production to grow to 30m bpd and offshore gas
production to grow to 150 mmcfd. There are underlying trends towards
deep water and gas.
Brazil dominates the development charts. East Africa and Arctic and
regions to watch for.
Rates in the MDU and Construction sector have improved but in AHTS
and PSV the market has remained more sluggish. Still some newbuild
supply pressures and markets closely balanced.
Medium and long term requirement still strong but some market concerns
and financing tough.
Disclaimer
The information supplied herewith is believed to be correct but the accuracy thereof is not
guaranteed and the Company and its employees cannot accept liability for loss suffered in
consequence of reliance on the information provided.
Provision of this data does not obviate the need to make further appropriate enquiries and
inspections. Forecasts are frequently wrong and the information on which they are based is not
always accurate, so they are not a reliable basis for business decisions. Always consult as many
sources as possible and check the validity of each to the extent the decision justifies.
The information is for the use of the recipient only and is not to be used in any document for the
purposes of raising finance without the written permission of Clarkson Research Services
Limited, England, No 1944749. Registered Office at St. Magnus House, 3 Lower Thames Street,
London, EC3R 6HE.
Contracts
Fabien Lerede
Syndicate Claims Director
London
3 October 2012
Agenda
standard offshore overview
current offshore contracting trends
legal development
65
5
1
4
3
66
FPSO
Supply / support
Accommodation
FSO
Drilling
41%
9%
3%
18%
18%
11%
6
4 5
3
2
67
Personal Injury
Pollution
Other
Wreck
Cargo
Collision
FFO
Fines
74%
2%
4%
1%
4%
2%
8%
5%
4
3
1
68
Personal Injury
Pollution
Other
Wreck
Cargo
Collision
FFO
Fines
50%
27%
2%
10%
1%
1%
6%
3%
Contracts reviewed
700
600
660
500
545
400
427
300
200
360
293
100
0
2009
2010
2011
69
2012
Oct-12
3 4
2
1
70
Production
Drill
58%
34%
6%
2%
Contract review
when do we do review
why do we review:
1. to establish:
2. to achieve certainty
71
Construction contracts
72
73
Oil company
Construction company
Installation contractor
Transportation company
75
Legal developments
amendment to the 1996 Protocol
IMHH 2012 - LOGIC
pollution no development
76
79
80
81
Therefore third party liabilities arising out of such operations was a poolable
risk
1991 Chicago Pile Driving incident changed this position:
pile-driving ship punched through river penetrating the underground transport
system
excess of US$195m claims asserted in admiralty
led to introduction of current specialist operations exclusion
82
83
84
CAR cover
Oil company
85
WAIVED
Installation sub
contractor
NAMED
Construction contractor
CAR cover
Oil company
Installation sub
contractor
Restrictions on cover?
86
WAIVED
NAMED
Construction contractor
87
88
Summary
the specialist operations and contract work exclusions are widely drafted
small variances in a particular contract, scope of work or position in
contracting chain can be significant
other insurances may be available however your balance sheet may be at
risk if access to this cover is limited
89
Topics
The Contractor as an insured party.
Access to the policy.
Due Diligence obligations.
Quality Assurance/Quality Control systems (QA/QC) obligations.
Liability coverage for the Contractor.
Interface between Offshore Construction Project Insurance Policy and
Contractor procured insurances.
93
95
96
99
But unlikely that Contractors and Oil Companies will regard the anticipated
changes to the unfriendly 2011 draft as adequate.
100
The Contractor may also be required to have loss/damage cover for owned
watercraft and equipment.
.
101
102
103
104
106
Contact Details
United Kingdom
10 Fenchurch Avenue
London, EC3M 5BN, UK
Telephone: +44 (0) 2034 276 372
Dennis Culligan, Director
dculligan@longdowneic.com
+44 (0) 2034 276 373
+44 (0) 7884 068 965
www.longdowneic.com
Canada
Suite 1600, 144 - 4th Avenue SW
Calgary, AB Canada T2P 3N4
Telephone: +1 (403) 254-5222
Mike Roper, Director
mroper@longdowneic.com
+1 (403) 303 3309
+1 (403) 875 1624
info@longdowneic.com
107
An Offshore Example
110
111
Alternative coverage
112
113
114
Recommendations
All contracts should dovetail, from Oil Company to main
Contractor to Subcontractors
Construction insurers to understand and commit to
contractual position
Know your position - talk to your insurers, brokers, Club
Know your independent adviser
Recommendations
115
saipem
Indemnity Principles
Useful and welcome but not the panacea.
Very often application limited to a mutual hold harmless between
the parties (which the Works escape from),
The risks related to the well (loss of control, collapse, pollution)
normally remain on Principal side,
Other third party risks per applicable law.
Delicate drafting
Company vs. Company Group / Contractor vs. Contractor Group,
What exactly is indemnified?
Is gross negligence included? What is it? Who can be grossly
negligent?
Definition of consequential losses,
Need for true indemnities and not just waivers
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Standard Offshore Forum 03 Oct 2012
118
Indemnity Principles
Even in a so called balanced contract, Contractors burden is still very
heavy.
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119
Faulty weld
Defective part exclusion
QA/QC warranty,
Deductible inflation,
Sub-limits for collateral expenses,
From the Welcar 2001 to the Welcar 2013 (?) or . a second step
versus an even more confidential and restricted cover?
Named perils,
Enlarged due diligence,
Access to be expressly granted under written contract,
Strictly limited to construction
And further,
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120
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122
123
124
Conclusion
Never forget that Contractors and Subcontractors of any tiers can not
develop any sustainable business in the oil and gas field (especially
offshore) without the support of their Principals and that one of the
Insurance community.
Give them the possibility to transfer part of their financial risks through
reliable and realistic mechanisms.
Do not let CAR become merely a pre-financing tool to the exclusive
benefit of the Principal. This is not a viable route.
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125
Guy Hardaker
Partner
Holman Fenwick Willan LLP
TOPICS
1. What is an Indemnity?
2. Indemnity regime offshore
3. Construction of Indemnities
4. Disputed Indemnities
5. Breakdown in Indemnity regime
6. Observations
128
WHAT IS AN IDEMNITY?
"A contract between 2 parties in which one party agrees to be
liable for loss or damage sustained by the other party and/or a
third party from a specified event or loss or damage which
results from a claim or demand"
129
130
exclusion
limitation of liability
indemnity
131
132
EXXON
BP
OPERATOR
CONTRACTOR
SUB-CONTRACTOR A
SUB-CONTRACTOR B
1.
2.
3.
4.
Contractor claims against Sub-Contractor B since order knock for knock Contractor
indemnified for claim by Operator
5.
CONSTRUCTION OF INDEMNITIES
Width or scope
Circumstances
Types of event
134
DISPUTED INDEMNITIES
Buncefield
135
Gulf claimed Diamond could not sue for damage to rig on basis Gulf also
had protection of indemnity in favour of Texaco (e.g. as other
contractor)
Gulf held not to have protection of indemnity as its contract with Texaco
did not contain similar indemnities so no "knock for knock" arose
136
Farstad v Enviroco
ASCO not liable to Farstad for own negligence so Enviroco not entitled
to contribution from ASCO
137
Macondo
138
Catastrophic loss
Failure to recover
Uncertainty
139
OBSERVATIONS
140