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Probabilities
Large facility
Medium-sized facility
Small facility
No facility
Profit (RM)
Good market
Poor market
0.65
0.35
550,000
-310,000
300,000
-100,000
200,000
-100,000
0
0
a. Draw the decision tree to represent this situation. What do you recommend?
b. The president of Todays Electronics is considering the possibility of conducting
a survey on the market potential for industrial equipment repair using robots.
There is a 65% chance that the survey will be favorable. The probability of a good
market given a favorable survey is estimated to be 0.75 and the probability of a
good market given an unfavorable survey is estimated to be 0.3. The cost of the
survey is RM5, 000. What do you recommend?
c. Compute the conditional probability values of a favorable or unfavorable survey
result given a good or poor market.
Solution (c):
G- Good market
- Poor Market
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