Southeast Asias Potential

Flashpoints
Emeritus Professor Carlyle A. Thayer
Australian Strategic Policy Institute
Defence GraduateCourse
October 31, 2014
Objectives
To assess
The rise of China and renewed US interests
Greater salience of the maritime domain
Disputes in the South China Sea
Arms build-up in the region
Relations with outside powers Japan and India
Internal sources of tension in Southeast Asia
The relevance of the Five Power Defence
Arrangements
Evolution of the regional security architecture
Outline
Chinas Challenge to U.S. Primacy
South China Sea Flashpoints
China and the Philippines
China and Vietnam
Roles of Japan and India
Land Reclamation
Southeast Asia
Domestic Instability
Five Power Defence Arrangements
Regional Architecture
1. Chinas
Challenge
to U.S.
Primacy
Counter
Intervention
Strategy (1
st
and 2
nd
island chains)
Major
Annual
PLA
Naval
Exercises
In South
China Sea
Naval Base,
Yulin Bay,
Sanya
Yulin Naval
Base, Hainan
Island
EP-3E Incident April 1, 2001
USNS Impeccable and USS John McCain
Incidents, March and June 2009
USS Cowpens Incident
December 5, 2013
Chinese carrier
Liaoning on
exercises in
South China Sea
USS Cowpens, a
missile cruiser , forced
to stop to avoid a
collision with a
Chinese ship from the
Liaoning squadron.
P8 Poseidon Incident Aug. 19, 2014
Chinese J-
11 jet flew
within 6
metres
U.S. Rebalancing and
Force Posture Changes
Virginia class submarines, LCS
5
th
generation fighters JSF
P-8 Poseidon Aircraft
Cruise missiles and Drones (UAVs)
Enhanced ISR
China-US Rivalry: Possible Outcomes
Armed
conflict
Modus
vivendi
Cooperation
& friction
US Air Sea Battle Concept
2. South
China Sea
Flashpoints
Claimants:
China
Taiwan
Vietnam
The Philippines
Malaysia
Brunei
Sansha raised
to prefecture-
level city in July
2012 with
continuing
responsibility
over Paracel
Islands,
Macclesfield
Bank and the
Spratly Islands
Hainan
Island
Sea Lines of Communication
Natural Resources
Hydrocarbon resources
Oil proven reserves E = 7.7 billion barrels
Oil estimates R = 28-213 billion barrels
Natural gas estimates E = 266 trillion cubic feet
Fisheries
10% of worlds catch
Depletion due to over fishing and pollution
Fishermen going further out to disputed waters
Mischief
Reef
Physical Occupation
Country Features Occupied
Vietnam 21-26
Philippines 8-10
China 7-8
Malaysia 5-7
Taiwan 1-2
Brunei 0
Mischief Reef (China) 1995, 2005, 2012
China occupied Mischief Reef late 1994/early 1995
2a China and the Philippines
Mischief Reef
November 2007
Scarborough Shoal 2012
Second Thomas Shoal/Ayungin
BRP Sierra
Madre
(LST)
beached in
1999
2b China and Vietnam
January 1974
March 1988 China
Seizes Two
Features from
Vietnam by Force
South Johnson Reef
(above) and Fiery
Cross Reef (right)
March 1988 China
and Vietnam fought a
naval engagement.
China occupied South
Johnson and Fiery
Cross Reefs
China Views Vietnam as Plundering
its Hydrocarbons
China applies
pressure on Exxon
Mobile and other
foreign oil companies
to stop exploration
and development,
2007-09
USS George Washington
August 2010
USS John D. Stennis
April 2009
USS Florida SSGN, Pacific
Command December 2009
USS George H.W. Bush
August 2010
U.S.-Vietnam Relations
Force Modernisation
Su-30 Sukhoi Multirole Fighter
Vietnamese Naval Modernisation
BPS 500 Missile Boat
Gepard-class Guided Missile Frigates
Svetlyak-class Fast Attack Craft
Coastal Defence
Extended Range
Artillery Munitions
BrahMos Cruise Missile?
Bastion Anti-Ship
Missile
Six
advanced
Kilo-class
Submarines
Top right HQ Hanoi
Bottom right HQ Ho
Chi Minh
Naval Modernisation
Damen Schelde Sigma-class Corvettes
Design model for Vietnams Sigma-class corvette armed
with Exocet MM40 Block 3 anti-ship missile
HD-981 Crisis (May 2-July 15, 2014)
KN-951 rammed on June 23, 2014
May 26,
2014
2c Roles of Japan and India
Japan
Defence Cooperation
Agreement 2011
Strategic Partner raised to
Extensive Strategic Partner
Trilateral naval exercises
with US and the Philippines
Assistance in building up
Coast Guard and Fishery
Surveillance Force in
Vietnam and the Philippines
India
Strategic Partner (2006)
Oil exploration
Defence Cooperation
Agreement (2006)
Training submariners
US $100 m Line of Credit for
Ocean Patrol Vessels
Support defence
modernization (2014)
China and Malaysia
James Shoal 80
km off East
Malaysia March
2013
2d Chinas Land Reclamation
Gaven Reefs (Chinese: Nanxun Jiao and
Xinan Jiao , Vietnamese: Ga Ven and "
Lc", Tagalog: Burgos) Tizard Bank, Spratly Islands
Gaven Reefs
Current
construction
activities
Artists
impression of
what future
development will
look like
Johnson South Reef
Hughes Reef
Chinese: ;
Dngmn jio,
Vietnamese:
T Ngha
Woody Island Air Field Extended
3 Southeast Asia:
Domestic Instability
Five Power Defence Arrangements
the greatest transformation in the history of the FPDA
IADS: From
Integrated Air to
Area Defence
System (2000)
Major FPDA Exercise Series Post 2004
EX BERSAMA LIMA
EX BERSAMA SHIELD
EX BERSDAMA PADU
EX SUMAN WARRIOR
EX SUMAN PROTECTOR
Enhance operational
capability and
interoperability
Emerging asymmetric
threats
Non-conventional
threat scenarios in
maritime environment
Integration of civilian
agencies
Combined and joint
operations in a multi-
threat environment
Exercise Bersama Lima
Test all aspects of naval warfare and
joint approach to air defence
FPDA Exercises Contribution to
Regional Security
Confidence building between Malaysia
and Singapore
Enhanced professional and military
cooperation
Deterrence against conventional threats
FPDA Exercises Contribution to
Regional Security
Addresses some non-traditional security
threats
Piracy, small arms and weapons smuggling, HA/DR
Common but differentiated benefits to each
of its members
Spill-over effects to non-FPDA security
activities
APEC
Minus CLM &
India
ARF
Foreign
Ministers
ASEAN
+ 3
China
Japan,
South Korea
ADMM
Plus 8
Defence
Ministers
EAS
+ Russia
and USA
Regional Security Architecture
ASEAN Defence Ministers Plus 8
ADMM
USA
Japan
South
Korea
Australia
New
Zealand
India
Russia
China
Southeast Asias Potential
Flashpoints
Emeritus Professor Carlyle A. Thayer
E-mail: c.thayer@adfa.edu.au
Publications: at Scribd.com