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INTERNATIONAL ATOMIC ENERGY AGENCY

VIENNA
ISBN 978-92-0-119410-7
ISSN 1011-2642
@
REFERENCE DATA SERIES No. 1
2011 Edition
Energy,
Electricity and
Nuclear Power
Estimates
for the Period
up to 2050
11-30511 RDS_1-30 cover.indd 1 2011-09-02 11:41:07
REFERENCE DATA SERIES No. 1
energy, electricity and
nuclear power estimates
for the period up to 2050
2011 Edition
INTERNATIONAL ATOMIC ENERGY AGENCY
VIENNA, 2011
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ENERGY, ELECTRICITY AND
NuCLEAR pOwER ESTIMATES
FOR ThE pERIOD up TO 2050
IAEA-RDS-1/31
ISBN 9789201194107
ISSN 10112642
printed by the IAEA in Austria
August 2011
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contents
Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5
Grouping of countries and areas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
Table 1. Nuclear power reactors in the world
(end of 2010) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12
Figure 1. Nuclear share of total electricity
generation in 2010 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14
Table 2. Number of countries with nuclear
power reactors in operation or
under construction (end of 2010) . . . . . . . . . 15
Table 3. Estimates of total and nuclear
electrical generating capacity . . . . . . . . . . . . 17
Figure 2. Total and nuclear electrical generating
capacity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18
Table 4. Estimates of total electricity generation
and contribution by nuclear power . . . . . . . 21
Figure 3. percentage of electricity supplied
by nuclear power . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22
Table 5. Estimates of total energy requirement
(EJ), percentage used for electricity
generation, and percentage supplied
by nuclear energy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25
Figure 4. Estimates of total energy requirement . . . . . 26
Table 6. Total energy requirement (EJ) by type
of fuel in 2010 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29
Figure 5. Total energy requirement by fuel type
in 2010 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30
Figure 6. Breakdown of world total energy
requirement during the period
19702010 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32
Table 7. Fuel shares (%) of total energy
requirement in 2010 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35
Table 8. Fuel use (EJ) for electricity
generation by type of fuel in 2010 . . . . . . . . 36
Table 9. percentage contribution of each
fuel type to electricity generation
in 2010 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37
Table 10. Estimates of population growth by region . . 39
Figure 7. population estimates . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40
Table 11. Estimates of total energy and electricity
requirement per capita . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43
11-30511_IAEA-RDS-1-31_body.indd 3 2011-09-07 13:00:56
Figure 8. Total energy requirement per capita . . . . . . . 44
Figure 9. Total electricity requirement per capita . . . . . 46
Table 12. Average annual growth rates during the
period 20002010 (%) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49
Figure 10. Average annual growth rates during the
period 20002010 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50
Table 13. Estimates of average annual
growth rates during the period
20102030 (%) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53
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5
introduction
Reference Data Series No. 1 (RDS-1) is an annual
publication currently in its thirty frst edition containing
estimates of energy, electricity and nuclear power trends
up to the year 2050.
RDS-1 starts with a summary of the situation of nuclear
power in IAEA Member States as of the end of 2010. The
data on nuclear power presented in Tables 1 and 2 are
based on actual statistical data collected by the IAEAs
power Reactor Information System (pRIS). however,
energy and electricity data for 2010 are estimated, as
the latest information available from the united Nations
Department of Economic and Social Affairs is for 2008
only. population data originate from the world population
prospects (2010 revision), published by the population
Division of the united Nations Department of Economic
and Social Affairs. The 2010 values again are estimates.
As in previous editions, projections of future energy
and electricity demand and the role of nuclear power
are presented as low and high estimates encompassing
the inherent uncertainties involved in projecting trends.
The RDS-1 estimates should be viewed as very general
growth trends whose validity must be constantly subjected
to critical review.
Beginning with the 30th edition of this publication,
however, the end-point of the estimates was extended
up to the year 2050 (instead of 2030). Looking beyond
2030 has been prompted by the interest expressed by
numerous Member States currently without nuclear
power in adding nuclear energy to their future national
energy supply mixes. Given the extensive lead times in
planning and implementing nuclear power programmes,
a fair share of these are likely to result in actual plant
commissioning and grid connection after 2030.
Many international, national and private organizations
routinely engage in energy demand and supply projections,
including nuclear power. These projections are based
on a multitude of different assumptions and aggregating
procedures, which make a straightforward comparison
and synthesis very diffcult. The basic differences refer to
such fundamental input assumptions as:
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6
Economic growth;
Correlation of economic growth and energy use;
Technology performance and costs;
Energy resource availability and future fuel prices;
Energy policy and physical, environmental and
economic constraints.
The projections presented in this publication are based
on a compromise between:
National projections supplied by each country for a
recent OECD/NEA study;
Indicators of development published by the world
Bank in its world Development Indicators;
Global and regional energy, electricity and nuclear
power projections made by other international
organizations.
More specifcally, the estimates of future nuclear
generating capacity presented in Table 3 are derived
from a country by country bottom up approach. They are
established by a group of experts participating each year
in the IAEAs consultancy on Nuclear Capacity projections
and based upon a review of nuclear power projects and
programmes in Member States. The experts consider all
the operating reactors, possible license renewals, planned
shutdowns and plausible construction projects foreseen
for the next several decades. They build the projections
project by project by assessing the plausibility of each in
light of, frst, the low projections assumptions and, second,
the high projections assumptions.
The low and high estimates refect contrasting, but not
extreme, underlying assumptions on the different driving
factors that have an impact on nuclear power deployment.
These factors, and the ways they might evolve, vary from
country to country. The estimates presented provide a
plausible range of nuclear capacity growth by region and
worldwide. They are not intended to be predictive nor to
refect the whole range of possible futures from the lowest
to the highest feasible.
The low case represents expectations about the future
if current trends continued and there were few changes in
policies affecting nuclear power other than those already in
the pipeline. This case was explicitly designed to produce a
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7
conservative but plausible set of projections. Additionally,
the low case did not automatically assume that targets
for nuclear power growth in a particular country would
necessarily be achieved. These assumptions are relaxed
in the high case.
The high case projections are much more optimistic,
but still plausible and technically feasible. The high case
assumes that the current fnancial and economic crises will
be overcome in the not so distant future and past rates of
economic growth and electricity demand, especially in the
Far East, would essentially resume. In addition, the high
case assumes the implementation of stringent policies
globally targeted at mitigating climate change.
Developing the 2011 nuclear power projections posed
a considerable challenge. First the fnancial and economic
crises that started in 2008 have not been overcome in
many regions. Second, the Fukushima-Daiichi accident
and its likely impact on future nuclear power development
is diffcult to foresee. The accident was a tragedy for
the people affected and seriously undermined public
confdence in the safety of nuclear power. A number of
countries announced reviews of their programmes, some
took steps toward phasing out nuclear power entirely, and
others re-emphasized their expansion plans. Third, a new
international environmental agreement on the regulation
of greenhouse gases replacing the Kyoto protocol
that would make the climate benefts of nuclear energy
fnancially visible to investors is still being negotiated.
Regardless of these uncertainties, the continued
growth in both the 2011 low and high projections suggests
that the reasons for increased interest in nuclear power
before the accident have not changed by the accident:
(a) energy and electricity demand growth continue to be
driven by population growth and economic development;
(b) concerns continue to persist about security of energy
supply and high and volatile fossil fuel prices; and (c) the
quest for stable electricity generating costs is still a major
incentive for public and private sector interest in nuclear
power. Moreover, the overall performance and safety of
nuclear power plants continue to be good. All this points
to continued strong growth of nuclear power in the longer
term.
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8
energy units
1 Mw(e) = 10
6
watts (electrical)
1 Gw(e) = 1000 Mw(e) = 10
9
watts (electrical)
1 GJ = 1 gigajoule = 10
9
joules
1 EJ = 1 exajoule = 10
18
joules
1 EJ = 23.9 megatonnes of oil equivalent (Mtoe)
1 Twh = 1 terawatt-hour = 10
9
kwh = 3.6 10
3
EJ
The 2011 projections faced the complex need to
balance the factors that have traditionally driven, and
continue to drive, the future demand for nuclear power
with the factors that potentially could adversely affect
nuclear power expansion. The result of this balancing
act shows the worlds installed nuclear power capacity
expanding from 375 gigawatts (Gw(e)) today to
501 Gw(e) in 2030, i.e. a decrease of 8% compared with
last years's projection. In the updated high projection, it
grows to 746 Gw(e) in 2030, down by 7% from last year.
The data on electricity produced by nuclear power plants
is converted to joules based on the average effciency of a
nuclear power plant, i.e. 33%; data on electricity generated
by geothermal heat are converted to joules based on the
average effciency of a geothermal power plant, i.e. 10%.
The conversion to joules of electricity generated by
hydropower or by other non-thermal sources such as
wind, tide and solar is based on the energy content of the
electricity generated (the equivalent of assuming 100%
effciency).
The total energy requirement has been calculated by
summing the primary energy production, the net energy
trade minus changes in international bunkers and
domestic stocks.
The values shown in Table 9 refer to primary energy
used for the generation of electricity. Owing to differences
in conversion effciencies, the percentage values
are different from the shares of electricity generation
presented in Tables 1 and 5.
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9
N o r t h A m e r i c a
C a n a d a * U n i t e d S t a t e s o f A m e r i c a *
L a t i n A m e r i c a
A n g u i l l a H a i t i *
A n t i g u a a n d B a r b u d a H o n d u r a s *
A r g e n t i n a * J a m a i c a *
A r u b a M a r t i n i q u e
B a h a m a s M e x i c o *
B a r b a d o s M o n t s e r r a t
B e l i z e N e t h e r l a n d s A n t i l l e s
B e r m u d a N i c a r a g u a *
B o l i v i a * P a n a m a *
B r a z i l * P a r a g u a y *
C a y m a n I s l a n d s P e r u *
C h i l e * P u e r t o R i c o
C o l o m b i a * S . G e o r g i a & S . S a n d w i c h I s l a n d s
C o s t a R i c a * S a i n t K i t t s a n d N e v i s
C u b a * S a i n t L u c i a
D o m i n i c a S a i n t P i e r r e a n d M i q u e l o n
D o m i n i c a n R e p u b l i c * S a i n t V i n c e n t & t h e G r e n a d i n e s
E c u a d o r * S u r i n a m e
E l S a l v a d o r * T r i n i d a d a n d T o b a g o
G r e n a d a T u r k s a n d C a i c o s I s l a n d s
G u a d e l o u p e U r u g u a y *
G u a t e m a l a * V e n e z u e l a *
G u y a n a
W e s t e r n E u r o p e
A n d o r r a L i e c h t e n s t e i n *
A u s t r i a * L u x e m b o u r g *
B e l g i u m * M a l t a *
C y p r u s * M o n a c o *
D e n m a r k * N e t h e r l a n d s *
F i n l a n d * N o r w a y *
F r a n c e * P o r t u g a l *
G e r m a n y * S a n M a r i n o
G i b r a l t a r S p a i n *
G r e e c e * S v a l b a r d a n d J a n M a y e n I s l a n d s
G r e e n l a n d S w e d e n *
H o l y S e e * S w i t z e r l a n d *
I c e l a n d * T u r k e y *
I r e l a n d * U n i t e d K i n g d o m *
I t a l y *
G R O U P I N G O F C O U N T R I E S A N D A R E A S
T h e c o u n t r i e s a n d g e o g r a p h i c a l a r e a s
i n c l u d e d i n e a c h g r o u p i n g a r e l i s t e d b e l o w
( I A E A M e m b e r S t a t e s a r e d e n o t e d b y a n a s t e r i s k )
*
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Africa
Algeria* Malawi*
Angola* Mali*
Benin* Mauritania*
Botswana* Mauritius*
Burkina Faso* Mayotte
Burundii* Morocco*
Camero o n * Mozambique*
Cape Verdee* Namibia*
Central Africaa n Republic* Niger*
Chad Nigeria*
Comoros Reunion
Congo o* Rwanda*
Cte d'I voire* Saint Helena
Democratic Rep. of the Congo* Sao Tome and Principe
Djibouti Senegal*
Egypt* Seychelles*
Equatorial Guinea Sierra Leone*
Eritrea* Somalia
Ethiopia* South Africa*
Gabon* Sudan*
Gambia Swaziland
Ghana* Togo
Guinea Tunisia*
Guinea-Bissau Uganda*
Kenya* United Republic of Tanzania*
Lesotho* Western Sahara
Liberia* Zambia*
Libyan Arab Jamahiriya* Zimbabwe*
Madagascar*
Eastern Europe
Albania* Lithuania*
Armenia* Montenegro*
Poland* Azerbaijan*
Republic of Moldova* Belarus*
Romania* Bosnia and Herzegovina*
Russian Federation* Bulgaria*
Serbia* Croatia*
Slovakia* Czech Republic*
Slovenia* Estonia*
Tajikistan* Georgia*
The Frmr.Yug.Rep. of Macedonia* Hungary*
Turkmenistan Kazakhstan*
Ukraine* Kyrgyzstan*
Uzbekistan* Latvia*
*
*
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11
M i d d l e E a s t a n d S o u t h A s i a
A f g h a n i s t a n * K u w a i t *
B a h r a i n* L e b a n o n *
B a n g l a d e s h * N e p a l*
B h u t a n O m a n*
B r i t i s h I n d i a n O c e a n T e r r i t o r y P a k i s t a n *
C o c o s ( K e e l i n g ) I s l a n d s Q a t a r *
F r e n c h S o u t h e r n T e r r i t o r i e s S a u d i A r a b i a *
H e a r d I s l a n d & M c D o n a l d I s l a n d s S r i L a n k a *
I n d i a * S y r i a n A r a b R e p u b l i c *
I r a n , I s l a m i c R e p u b l i c o f * T . T . U . T . J o f T . P a l e s t i n i a n A .
I r a q * U n i t e d A r a b E m i r a t e s *
I s r a e l * Y e m e n *
J o r d a n *
S o u t h E a s t A s i a a n d t h e P a c i f i c
A u s t r a l i a * N o r t h e r n M a r i a n a I s l a n d s
B r u n e i D a r u s s a l a m P a l a u*
C o o k I s l a n d s P a p u a N e w G u i n e a*
F i j i P i t c a i r n I s l a n d s
I n d o n e s i a * S a m o a
K i r i b a t i S i n g a p o r e *
M a l a y s i a * S o l o m o n I s l a n d s
M a l d i v e s T h a i l a n d *
M a r s h a l l I s l a n d s * T i m o r L e s t e
M i c r o n e s i a ( F e d . S t a t e s o f ) T o k e l a u
M y a n m a r * T u v a l u
N e w Z e a l a n d * U S M i n o r O u t l y i n g I s l a n d s
N i u e V a n u a t u
N o r f o l k I s l a n d s W a l l i s a n d F u t u n a I s l a n d s
F a r E a s t
C a m b o d i a* M a c a u , C h i n a
C h i n a * M o n g o l i a *
D e m . P . R . o f K o r e a P h i l i p p i n e s *
J a p a n * T a i w a n , C h i n a
K o r e a , R e p u b l i c o f * V i e t n a m *
L a o P . D . R .
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11-30511_IAEA-RDS-1-31_body.indd 37 2011-09-07 13:01:08
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11-30511_IAEA-RDS-1-31_body.indd 48 2011-09-07 13:01:12
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11-30511_IAEA-RDS-1-31_body.indd 49 2011-09-07 13:01:12
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11-30511_IAEA-RDS-1-31_body.indd 51 2011-09-07 13:01:13
11-30511_IAEA-RDS-1-31_body.indd 52 2011-09-07 13:01:13
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11-30511_IAEA-RDS-1-31_body.indd 53 2011-09-07 13:01:13
@
No. 22
Where to order IAEA publications
In the following countries IAEA publications may be purchased from the sources
listed below, or from major local booksellers. Payment may be made in local
currency or with UNESCO coupons.
AUSTRALIA
DA Information Services, 648 Whitehorse Road, MITCHAM 3132
Telephone: +61 3 9210 7777 Fax: +61 3 9210 7788
Email: service@dadirect.com.au Web site: http://www.dadirect.com.au
BELGIUM
Jean de Lannoy, avenue du Roi 202, B-1190 Brussels
Telephone: +32 2 538 43 08 Fax: +32 2 538 08 41
Email: jean.de.lannoy@infoboard.be Web site: http://www.jean-de-lannoy.be
CANADA
Bernan Associates, 4501 Forbes Blvd, Suite 200, Lanham, MD 20706-4346, USA
Telephone: 1-800-865-3457 Fax: 1-800-865-3450
Email: customercare@bernan.com Web site: http://www.bernan.com
Renouf Publishing Company Ltd., 1-5369 Canotek Rd., Ottawa, Ontario, K1J 9J3
Telephone: +613 745 2665 Fax: +613 745 7660
Email: order.dept@renoufbooks.com Web site: http://www.renoufbooks.com
CHINA
IAEA Publications in Chinese: China Nuclear Energy Industry Corporation, Translation Section,
P.O. Box 2103, Beijing
CZECH REPUBLIC
Suweco CZ, S.R.O., Klecakova 347, 180 21 Praha 9
Telephone: +420 26603 5364 Fax: +420 28482 1646
Email: nakup@suweco.cz Web site: http://www.suweco.cz
FINLAND
Akateeminen Kirjakauppa, PO BOX 128 (Keskuskatu 1), FIN-00101 Helsinki
Telephone: +358 9 121 41 Fax: +358 9 121 4450
Email: akatilaus@akateeminen.com Web site: http://www.akateeminen.com
FRANCE
Form-Edit, 5, rue Janssen, P.O. Box 25, F-75921 Paris Cedex 19
Telephone: +33 1 42 01 49 49 Fax: +33 1 42 01 90 90
Email: formedit@formedit.fr Web site: http://www. formedit.fr
Lavoisier SAS, 145 rue de Provigny, 94236 Cachan Cedex
Telephone: + 33 1 47 40 67 02 Fax +33 1 47 40 67 02
Email: romuald.verrier@lavoisier.fr Web site: http://www.lavoisier.fr
GERMANY
UNO-Verlag, Vertriebs- und Verlags GmbH, Am Hofgarten 10, D-53113 Bonn
Telephone: + 49 228 94 90 20 Fax: +49 228 94 90 20 or +49 228 94 90 222
Email: bestellung@uno-verlag.de Web site: http://www.uno-verlag.de
HUNGARY
Librotrade Ltd., Book Import, P.O. Box 126, H-1656 Budapest
Telephone: +36 1 257 7777 Fax: +36 1 257 7472 Email: books@librotrade.hu
INDIA
Allied Publishers Group, 1st Floor, Dubash House, 15, J. N. Heredia Marg, Ballard Estate,
Mumbai 400 001,
Telephone: +91 22 22617926/27 Fax: +91 22 22617928
Email: alliedpl@vsnl.com Web site: http://www.alliedpublishers.com
Bookwell, 2/72, Nirankari Colony, Delhi 110009
Telephone: +91 11 23268786, +91 11 23257264 Fax: +91 11 23281315
Email: bookwell@vsnl.net
ITALY
Libreria Scientifica Dott. Lucio di Biasio AEIOU, Via Coronelli 6, I-20146 Milan
Telephone: +39 02 48 95 45 52 or 48 95 45 62 Fax: +39 02 48 95 45 48
Email: info@libreriaaeiou.eu Website: www.libreriaaeiou.eu
11-30511_IAEA-RDS-1-31_body.indd 54 2011-09-07 13:01:14
@
No. 22
Where to order IAEA publications
In the following countries IAEA publications may be purchased from the sources
listed below, or from major local booksellers. Payment may be made in local
currency or with UNESCO coupons.
AUSTRALIA
DA Information Services, 648 Whitehorse Road, MITCHAM 3132
Telephone: +61 3 9210 7777 Fax: +61 3 9210 7788
Email: service@dadirect.com.au Web site: http://www.dadirect.com.au
BELGIUM
Jean de Lannoy, avenue du Roi 202, B-1190 Brussels
Telephone: +32 2 538 43 08 Fax: +32 2 538 08 41
Email: jean.de.lannoy@infoboard.be Web site: http://www.jean-de-lannoy.be
CANADA
Bernan Associates, 4501 Forbes Blvd, Suite 200, Lanham, MD 20706-4346, USA
Telephone: 1-800-865-3457 Fax: 1-800-865-3450
Email: customercare@bernan.com Web site: http://www.bernan.com
Renouf Publishing Company Ltd., 1-5369 Canotek Rd., Ottawa, Ontario, K1J 9J3
Telephone: +613 745 2665 Fax: +613 745 7660
Email: order.dept@renoufbooks.com Web site: http://www.renoufbooks.com
CHINA
IAEA Publications in Chinese: China Nuclear Energy Industry Corporation, Translation Section,
P.O. Box 2103, Beijing
CZECH REPUBLIC
Suweco CZ, S.R.O., Klecakova 347, 180 21 Praha 9
Telephone: +420 26603 5364 Fax: +420 28482 1646
Email: nakup@suweco.cz Web site: http://www.suweco.cz
FINLAND
Akateeminen Kirjakauppa, PO BOX 128 (Keskuskatu 1), FIN-00101 Helsinki
Telephone: +358 9 121 41 Fax: +358 9 121 4450
Email: akatilaus@akateeminen.com Web site: http://www.akateeminen.com
FRANCE
Form-Edit, 5, rue Janssen, P.O. Box 25, F-75921 Paris Cedex 19
Telephone: +33 1 42 01 49 49 Fax: +33 1 42 01 90 90
Email: formedit@formedit.fr Web site: http://www. formedit.fr
Lavoisier SAS, 145 rue de Provigny, 94236 Cachan Cedex
Telephone: + 33 1 47 40 67 02 Fax +33 1 47 40 67 02
Email: romuald.verrier@lavoisier.fr Web site: http://www.lavoisier.fr
GERMANY
UNO-Verlag, Vertriebs- und Verlags GmbH, Am Hofgarten 10, D-53113 Bonn
Telephone: + 49 228 94 90 20 Fax: +49 228 94 90 20 or +49 228 94 90 222
Email: bestellung@uno-verlag.de Web site: http://www.uno-verlag.de
HUNGARY
Librotrade Ltd., Book Import, P.O. Box 126, H-1656 Budapest
Telephone: +36 1 257 7777 Fax: +36 1 257 7472 Email: books@librotrade.hu
INDIA
Allied Publishers Group, 1st Floor, Dubash House, 15, J. N. Heredia Marg, Ballard Estate,
Mumbai 400 001,
Telephone: +91 22 22617926/27 Fax: +91 22 22617928
Email: alliedpl@vsnl.com Web site: http://www.alliedpublishers.com
Bookwell, 2/72, Nirankari Colony, Delhi 110009
Telephone: +91 11 23268786, +91 11 23257264 Fax: +91 11 23281315
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JAPAN
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De Lindeboom Internationale Publicaties B.V., M.A. de Ruyterstraat 20A, NL-7482 BZ
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The Stationery Office Ltd, International Sales Agency, PO Box 29, Norwich, NR3 1 GN
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On-line orders
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Books on the Environment
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UNITED NATIONS
Dept. I004, Room DC2-0853, First Avenue at 46th Street, New York, N.Y. 10017, USA
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Orders and requests for information may also be addressed directly to:
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INTERNATIONAL ATOMIC ENERGY AGENCY
VIENNA
ISBN 978-92-0-119410-7
ISSN 1011-2642
@
REFERENCE DATA SERIES No. 1
2011 Edition
Energy,
Electricity and
Nuclear Power
Estimates
for the Period
up to 2050
11-30511 RDS_1-30 cover.indd 1 2011-09-02 11:41:07

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