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Analyst Briefing
December 1, 2009
1
Wireless Subscribers:
Past, Present & Forecast
2
Worldwide Wireless Subscriber Market
Description 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
World Mobile Subscribers 1960.0 2281.8 2591.3 2824.5 3022.3 3203.6 3363.8 3531.0 3685.6
World Population 6575 6625 6675 6726 6778 6831 6885 6940 6997
World Mobile Penetration 30% 34% 39% 42% 45% 47% 49% 51% 53%
3
US Wireless Subscriber Market
Description 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
U.S. Population 291.0 294.0 297.0 300.0 303.0 306.0 309.0 312.0 315.0 318.0 321.0
U.S. Mobile Subscribers 182.1 208 233 249 267 281 295 307 316 325 333
U.S. Mobile Penetration 63% 71% 78% 83% 88% 92% 95% 98% 100% 102% 104%
4
Wireless Handset Sales:
Past, Present & Forecast
5
Global Mobile Device Forecast
6
Global Smartphone Device Forecast
7
Global Smartphone Device Market Share
Nokia will see increased competition, but will remain the global leader.
With devices like the iPhone from Apple, the Magic and Dream from HTC, and the Tour from Research in
Motion, and upcoming smartphones from the likes of Samsung and LG, Nokia will continue to see its
dominant foothold on the smartphone market shrink from 44% today, to around 36% in 2014. RIM should
continue to hold around 17% of the market, while companies like Apple, HTC, Samsung, and LG should
account for a large part of the bite out of Nokia’s share of the market.
Global Smartphone Market Share (2008) Global Smartphone Market Share Forecast (2014)
8
Global Smartphone Operating System Forecast
9
Global Smartphone Operating System Market Share
Global Smartphone OS Market Share (2008) Global Smartphone OS Market Share Forecast (2014)
10
North American Smartphone Operating System Forecast
11
North American Mobile Operating System Market Share
RIM maintains the dominant smartphone OS in North America, but their market share
will be significantly reduced by 2014.
With 58% of the North American smartphone market share, RIM hasn’t had a lot of competition from its
competitors. Although Apple has been successful with it’s iPhone product, it hasn’t been able to gain on
the breadth of RIM’s blackberry product line. Windows Mobile has been limited by licensing fees and
underperformance. However, with the introduction of Android and Palm WebOS, competition and
products will be coming from all angles. This competition should provide the variety in the North American
smartphone market that will really fuel the growth of the market as a whole.
Chart 3.2: North America Smartphone OS Market Share Forecasts
North American Mobile Operating System Market North American Mobile Operating System Market
Share (2008) Share Forecast (2014)
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Mobile & Wireless:
2010 Outlook
13
2010 Mobile & Wireless Trends
• Mobile ad exchanges
o Google buys AdMob
o Exchanges serve agencies which serve brands
14
2010 Mobile & Wireless Trends
• Google Voice
o Will the FCC intervene? Will it change voice in mobile?
• Google Navigation
o Will it end paid turn-by-turn navigation?
• Future of PND
o Replacing in-dash navigation in cars
o Will PNDs be replaced by SmartPhone?
15
2010 Mobile & Wireless Trends
16
Mobile & Wireless Leads the Global Economic Recovery
17
Next Steps
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18
Your Feedback is Important to Us
• Growth Forecasts?
• Competitive Structure?
• Emerging Trends?
• Strategic Recommendations?
• Other?
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For Additional Information
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