Tobias Gerken

The Pennsylvania State University

tug15@psu.edu
Geoengineering
CLIMATE CHANGE
(IN A NUTSHELL)
Global Energy Budget
Greenhouse Effect
After: Kiehl & Trenberth, 1997
The Carbon Cycle
Sarmiento & Gruber, 2002
Global Temperatures (I)
NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies
Mann et al., 1999
The Hockey Stick
Global Temperatures (II)
Columbia University
Anthropogenic Climate Change
Global temperatures are
rising.
The dominating mechanism
is enhanced green house
effect.
What are the consequences?

What should we do about it?

Fact

Fact

Research

Debate
Whose fault is it?
CO
2
Emissions by Country (2011)
Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
Whose fault is it?
Total GHG Emissions by Country (2011)
Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
Whose fault is it?
CO
2
Emissions per person (2011)
Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
Whose fault is it?
Historical Emissions (1850-2007)
Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
Whose fault is it?
Historical Emissions per person (1850-2007)
Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
Dealing with climate change
Do Nothing
Adapt
Mitigate
(Prevent)
(Geo-
engineering)


Xkcd.com
GEOENGINEERING
We are a force of nature (?!)
Paul Crutzen:
The Anthropocene
Rockstrm, et al. (2009):
Planetary Boundaries []
Ecology and Society 14: p 33-
Geoengineering methods
Solar Radiation Management
After: Kiehl & Trenberth, 1997
CO
2
removal
Geoengineering methods
Your turn (In groups):
1. How does the method work?
2. What are the advantages?
3. What are the disadvantages/
dangers?
4. How will it affect society?
5. Would you recommend it?
Write down the answers to turn in.
You will present your answers
(one minute presentation)
Higgins, 2014
Key issues to think about
Economics: How much will it cost?
Geopolitics: How do we regulate it?
Ecosystems: How will nature react?
Ethics: Should we do it?
Risks: What can go wrong?
Science: What do we know?
Carbon Capture and Storage
www.fastcompany.com
Economics
The Stern Report (2007): Climate change
mitigation will cost $ 1 trillion per year
(1-2% of world GDP)
$ 100 per ton of carbon
We have little knowledge what
geoengineering will cost
Cloud brightening.
Credit: McNeill
Geopolitics
Geoengineering by definition is global!
There will/ might be winners and losers?
Who will pay?
Who decides what
to do?
Do we need a global
climate police?


Precipitation change due to sulphate
aerosol geoengineering, Rasch et al 2008

Ethics/ Environment
How much do we need to know before we can
do geoengineering?
Is it morally wrong?
Are some options better than
others?
Ecosystems will be disrupted.
Do we care?

An algal bloom,
wikimedia commons

Risks
What happens if technologies fail?
Uncertainty
Unintended consequences
Get out of jail free card/ magic bullet?
We cannot do this forever bridge
technology
Geopolitical consequences: Less precipitation
in China, USA, Russia

Credit: loadtr.com
How should we make decisions?
The Royal Society Report:
1. Legality
2. Effectiveness
3. Timeliness
4. Environmental, social and economic impacts
5. Costs
6. Funding
7. Public Acceptability this is a biggie
8. Reversibility
A first evaluation

The Royal Society, 2009
Science
Royal Society Report, 2009
The American Meteorological Society recommends:
1. Enhanced research on the scientific and technological potential
for geoengineering the climate system, including research on
intended and unintended environmental responses.
2. Coordinated study of historical, ethical, legal, and social
implications of geoengineering that integrates international,
interdisciplinary, and intergenerational issues and perspectives
and includes lessons from past efforts to modify weather and
climate.
3. Development and analysis of policy options to promote
transparency and international cooperation in exploring
geoengineering options along with restrictions on reckless
efforts to manipulate the climate system.