RISK ASSESMENT STUDY OF WATER AVAILABILITY

RELATED TO IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE

(CASE STUDY: TANJUNG API-API PORT AREA, BANYUASIN VALLEY)
Yunan Hamdani
1)
Dwi Setyawan
2)
, Budhi Setiawan
3)
, and Azhar. K. Affandi
4)
1)
Doctoral Candidate of Environmental Program, Sriwijaya University,
Jln. Padang Selasa no. 524 Palemang!"#$"%, e!mail& y'nan(amdani)ymail.com
2,3,)
Doctor of Environmental Doctoral Program, Sriwijaya University and *dvisor Commission
ABSTRACT
Climate change as impact of global warming could exacerbate the decline in environmental quality as a result of
drought risk, water reduced availability and flooding. According to the Assesment Report 4 of orking !roup "" of
"nter#!overnmental $anel on Climate Change %&''(), there are five approaches in Climate Change "mpact, Adaptation
and *ulnerability assessment, where the risk assesment is the one of approach to be applied in mainstreaming
adaptation option into policy#making globally.
+he government of "ndonesia has explored the use of risk assessment approach for climate change adaption
planning since &'',. -n $rovince of .outh .umatra including the preparation of national document namely Climate
Change Risk and Adaption Asesment. .outh .umatra $rovince is one of the areas in "ndonesia which tipped to be
prone to the impact of climate change. .outh .umatra is very vulnerable due to its lowland areas that it may threat
coastal, water, agriculture, and health sector.
"n the district/of 0anyuasin, at this time the program has been planned deep sea port development at +an1ung Api#
api area. +he components of coastal flooding ha2ards caused by the combination of sea level rise, storm surges, and 3a#
4ina phenomenon at maximum tide. +he study concluded the oceanographic scientific basis of sea level rise to around
56.7 8 9.57 cm in &'6' relative to current conditions %greenhouse gas emission scenarios are moderate # .R:.a5b). -n
the vulnerability map it is known that at the sites did not reach a high level of vulnerability. +he low vulnerability have
an index of vulnerability by '.5, and the moderate vulnerability by '.7&. +he percentage of low risk was ,'.57; and
5,.6&; moderate risk and high risk of 5.76; at pro1ection condition in &'6' with retaining green open area of 6'; of
the area 0anyuasin *alley area.
+eyword& Climate c(ange, ,is- *ssesment, .owland
INTRODUCTION
.outh .umatra $rovince is an area particularly vulnerable to Climate Change to .ea#level rise,
:xtreme waves, ocean currents, rising temperature, "ncreased frequency of extreme events such as :lnino
and 3a nina, Changes in rainfall. $recipitation, sea level rise and extreme waves cause <lood, inundation,
:rosion and deposition, .alt water intrusion,"ts impact on water resources, Agriculture and <orestry, health
and "nfrastructure% =RA$" .outh .umatra,0appenas,!">.&'5&)
.ea 3evel Rise is likely to cause saltwater intrusion into surface waters and coastal aquifers,
advance of saltwater into estuaries and coastal river systems, more extensive coastal inundation, higher
levels of sea flooding, increases in the landward reach of sea waves and storm surges and new or
accelerated coastal erosion. +hese consequences are expected to be overwhelmingly negative and
particularly serious in deltas and small islands. Climate change and climate variability is also expected to
impact agriculture, largely through a decline in soil and water quality.
Climate change is defined as long process and contain high complexity that very unpredictable,
although using strictly mitigation. <rom <reeman, $., et.al %&''5), climate change is forecasted to bring
gradual changes in weather patterns, and changes in the variability of extreme events to broad geographic
regions. Climate change may increase the risk of structural damage to buildings, especially damage
resulting from strong wind, flood associated with more intense tropical cyclone and storms.
+he "$CC has outlined representative examples of pro1ected infrastructure impacts of extreme
climate phenomena %"$CC &''5a). "dentifying the impact of climate change on infrastructure as distinct
from other influences on our need to maintain, repair, and replace infrastructure, benefits from explicit
attention to a conceptual model for impact assessment.
As a awareness to climate change, 0appenas %Republic of "ndonesia) with !"> %De'tsc(e
/esellsc(aft f'er 0nternationale 1'sammenareit) have doing vulnerability assessment in macro level
%national). +his assessment developed to meso level %regional) by .uroso, et. al %&'5&) in .outh .umatera
$rovince.
"n the district/of 0anyuasin, at this time the program has been planned deep sea port development
in the +an1ung Api#api. .upporting region ?istrict +an1ung Api#api covers most of the areas 0anyuasin
?istrict "", ?istrict +an1ung 3ago, and @uara +elang ?istrict. +he area is bordered by the supporters of
protected forest and river water telang 0anyuasin to the north and west, +elang River to the east, and Canal
.ebalik %$A) in the south. -verall the area is about 5&,&,& hectares. +he development of +an1ung Api#api
"nternational seaport are also prone to the impact of flood and sea level rise.
Risk assesment approach has been well developed within the disaster communities and has been
increasingly adopted within the Climate Change comunities. Risk Assesment <ramework, based on isner
%&''4), can be schemati2ed as RBCx*. Ander this approach, ha2ards is the natural events that may affect
different places singly or in combination which can be though as the manifestation of the agent that
produces the loss. +his paper derived Ca2ards from the climate change parameters such as change of
$recipitation %$), .ea 3evel Rise %.3R), and extreme events %::). <or flood ha2ards assesment the
parameters $, .3R, and :: are converted into flood ha2ards maps. *ulnerability refers tothe potential for
casualty, destruction, damage, disruption or other form of loss in a particular element. +herefore, under this
framework, ha2ards assesment caused by climate change is firstly done, then it will be continued with
vulnerability assesment. After that risk assesment is conducted.

MATERIALS AND METHOD
+he research was conducted from April &'55 to Dune &'5&, take a sample of raw water at five
locations and laboratory test to know turbidity,salinity and conductivity of raw water, distributing
questioner to find out data condition of people at 0anyusin *alley. As many as &76 respondents were
randomly selected from comunity of 6 village i.e +an1ung 3ago, @uara +elang and 0anyuasin "". ?irect
observation was also done to find out data for tidal measurement for ha2ard by sea level rise.
<lood ha2ards model is using administrative map of 0anyuasin *alley, ?igital :levation @odel
%?:@), rainfall data, and land use map. Ca2ards in this study is a result of the components of the ha2ard
scenarios from the sea. +he rise in sea level made up the highest seawater tidal components %CC3) and
the average tide %@C3), high sea waves, the pro1ected sea level rise due to climate change %.R:. A50),
3a#4ina phenomenon, as well as threats storm waves from the .outh China .ea.
*ulnerability in the study was obtained from the preparation of component parameters E indicators of
vulnerability consisting of housing conditions, number of occupants, water consumption, and income per
month which will be overlays with land use maps at the sites. +o get the data parameter susceptibility field
survey and questionnaire filling.
RESULT AND DISCUSSION
3aboratory test results showed that the conductivity of water in a village location is in the range of
97., to 5',.F Rather G. E cm. 4o. $ermenkes. F'(E&''& sets maximum conductivity 6'' G. E cm so it can
be concluded that the conductivity of water in a village location of Canal .ebalik meet water quality
requirements. +he results of measurements of salinity or the amount of dissolved salt content at Canal
.ebalik for all six samples have the largest variation in the value of 5F5.( mg E l and the smallest is 9.65 mg
E l which is well below the threshold value was set at 7'' mg E l.
<rom the description of the analysis of some of the parameters in the test, it can be concluded that
in contrast to the canal site used as a source of raw water to be processed into clean water.
B! H"#"$% A&&'&(')* +, C-.("*' C/")0'
+he components of coastal flooding ha2ards caused by the combination of sea level rise, storm
surges, and 3a#4ina phenomenon at maximum tide. +he study concluded the oceanographic scientific basis
of sea level rise to around 56.7 8 9.57 cm in &'6' relative to current conditions %greenhouse gas emission
scenarios are moderate # .R:.a5b). .ea level rise is complete sea level variability, both of which occur
periodically every day once the tide %with riding around 6.6 m) and that occur incidental result of the
increase in 3a#4ina phenomenon %the influence of the $acific -cean) which can lead to an increase at 57
cm to sea level under normal conditions may occur once in 5#6 years. "n the future 3a#4ina phenomenon
predicted the long and often occur that can result in increasingly high waves. +he storm surge of the .outh
China .ea with a height of about &' cm can occur 6 times a year. %+he Risk Assessment on Climate Change
Adaptation in .outh .umatra, &'5&). <rom the measurement results obtained in the calculation of the
location of high tide water level maximum %CC3) 5F' cm and the mean high water tide # average
%@C3) is 54' cm. %fig & and fig 6)
<igure &. @easurement at research study
0asis of the results of scientific studies and oceanographic measurements on the tides ha2ard
scenarios formulated by the ha2ard element that can be seen in +able 5.
+able 5. :lement of Ca2ard at research location
:lement of Ca2ard Ca2ard code .R:. A50 $ro1ection
&'5' % cm ) &'6' % cm )
+ide % @C3 ) 5a 54' 54'
+ide % CC3 ) 5b 5F' 5F'
@aximum ave &a 65.5 65.5
.ignificant ave &b 6,.4 6,.4
.ea 3evel Rise 6 ' 56.7 H 9.5
3a 4ina 4 57 57
.urges 7 &' &'
<looding 9 5'' 5''
+able &. .cenario of Ca2ard
S1')"$.+ C2((2-"*.3'
SRES A4B
PROJECTION
2545 (1() 2535
(1()
.cenario 5a % :ksisting ) 5a H &a H 6 5(5.5 5,4.9
.cenario 5b % :kstrim ) 5b H &b H6 &&,.4 &45.F
.cenario &a % :kstrim H 3a#4ina ) 5b H &b H 4 H 6 &46.4 &79.F
.cenario &b % :kstrim H .urge ) 5b H &b H 7 H 6 &4,.4 &95.F
.cenario 6 % :kstrim H 3a#4ina H .urge ) 5b H &b H 4 H 7 H 6 &96.4 &(9.F
.cenario 4 % :kstrim H 3a#4ina H <lood ) 5b H &b H 4 H 9 H 6 646.4 679.F
Calculation of ha2ard assessment done by following a script that has been compiled as table &. for
baseline conditions %in &'5') and the condition of pro1ection %year &'6'). <urther elevation of sea level is
the ' m mean sea level so in this study the map inundation scenarios simulated using ?:@ with inundation
at an elevation of ' m above sea level at the height of immersion scenarios 5a 5(5.5 cm for &'5' and
scenario inundation at an elevation of ' m above sea level with altitude 679.F cm for pro1ection condition
at &'6'.
<igure 4 Ca2ard @ap for scenario 5a at &'5' % 0aseline condition )
<igure 7 Ca2ard @ap for scenario 4 at &'6' % $ro1ection condition )
0ased on calculations it is known that in scenario 5a Ca2ard of sea level rise in &'5' at the height
of tide % baseline condition ). As for the flooded area is 5.'9; or 56'.5F ha area and the area that is not
inundated %no ha2ard) of F,.F4; or 5&,575.,5 hectares. "n scenario 5b to scenario 6 using tidal height in
&'5' and &'6', the area of the danger posed by rising sea level is 799.&' ha %4.95;) and the area that is not
inundated %no ha2ard) is 55(57.,' ha %F7.6F;), while in scenario 4 using tidal height in &'6' % pro1ection
condition ) the area of danger from sea level rise is equal to 5,47.F, ha %57.'6;) and the area that is not
flooded 5'469.'& ha %,4.F(;) of the total area 0anyuasin *alley region.
$ro1ection ha2ard %ha2ard) is more focused on the rise of sea level %sea level rise), which has been
pro1ected in accordance with the !lobal Circulation @odel %"$CC AR#4). +he pro1ection used to use "$CC
.R:. %.pecial Report on :mission .cenarios) A50. "n this study, the danger in assuming pro1ected rainfall
remains. *isually can not see a significant difference between the scenario pro1ection ha2ard of climate
change, this is due to changes in sea level %sea level rise) that occurred '.9 # '., cm E year.
C! V2-)'$"6.-.*7 A&&'&(')*
+he vulnerability assessment at 0anyuasin *alley, the vulnerability is determined by the index of
vulnerability resulting from the parameters E indicators that are owned by the elements # elements that have
the potential risk to the impacts of climate change. "n this study, the type of vulnerability focused on the
conditions and circumstances that existed throughout the +an1unglago village to .ungsang village.
$arameter E vulnerability indicators used in the assessment of vulnerability is the condition of the home,
number of occupants, water consumption, and a monthly income of existing residents and the region will be
in overlay to land use at the sites. +he index of vulnerability is classified into three classes, namely low
vulnerability, moderate vulnerability and high vulnerability and map for total vulnerability can be see at
figure 9
<igure 9 +otal *ulnerability map at 0anyuasin *alley
+he vulnerability results from @apCalculation total and .licing using "3". !". applications.
0ased on the results of the calculations using "3". !". applications that generate vulnerability maps in
total with the level of vulnerability information. -n the vulnerability map %<igure 9.) "t is known that at the
sites did not reach a high level of vulnerability. +he low vulnerability have an index of vulnerability by '.5,
and the moderate vulnerability by '.7&.
D! R.&8 A&&'&(')*
+he level of risk is classified into three classes, namely low risk %low risk), intermediate risk %moderate
risk), and high risk %high risk). +he level of risk resulting from the overlay level ha2ard and vulnerability
levels in & dimensional table.
<igure ( +wo dimensional table
0ased on the study of climate change ha2ards %ha2ard assessment), the risk assessment %risk assessment)
has a scenario areI
5. +he risk of tidal flooding and maximum altitude in &'5'
&. +he risk of floods and sea level rise by &'6', with no change in precipitation and tidal height # average.
6. +he risk of floods and sea level rise by &'6', with no change in precipitation and tidal height average #
average and retaining green open area of 6'; of the area 0anyuasin *alley area.
<rom the analysis scenario 5 of the risk using "3". !". applications is known that there are
houses that have a high level of risk %high risk), moderate risk level ( houses %moderate risk), and 5&4
schools with low levels of risk %low risk) and the rest are not at risk . +he percentage is F4.99; lower risk
and moderate risk of 7.64;. +he results of risk analysis scenario 5 is shown in <igure ,. <rom the analysis
of the risk scenario & it is known that the risk level in residential buildings, there are 6 homes that have a
high level of risk %high risk), the risk level was 7F %moderate risk), and 9F homes with a low risk level %low
risk). +he percentage of low risk was 7&.9(; and 47.'4; intermediate risk and high risk of &.&F;. An
increase in the percentage of 6F.(; for intermediate risk from &'5' to &'6' and the percentage decrease of
45.FF; for low#risk homes. +he results of the risk analysis scenario & is shown in <igure F. .ubsequently
tried 6rd scenario for &'6' by maintaining open green area by 6'; as a watershed, and with the help of a
dynamic program to determine the amount of flooding that occurred as well in overlapping stacking with
total vulnerability to obtain the results of the risk analysis to note that the level of risk in buildings home
there are & houses that have a high level of risk %high risk), &4 homes were rate risk %moderate risk), and
5'7 homes with a low risk level %low risk). +he percentage of low risk was ,'.57; and 5,.6&; moderate
risk and high risk of 5.76;. +he results of risk analysis scenario 6 is shown in <igure 5'.
<igure ,. @ap of $otential Risks %.cenario 5) 0uilding Couses "n Region 0anyuasin *alley Against the
Ca2ards of Climate Change
<igure F. @ap of $otential Risks %.cenario &) 0uilding Couses "n Region 0anyuasin *alley Against the
Ca2ards of Climate Change
<igure 5'. @ap of $otential Risks %.cenario 6) 0uilding Couses "n Region 0anyuasin *alley Against the
Ca2ards of Climate Change
T"6-' 3! R'1"9.*2-"*.+) +, R.&8 A)"-7&.& R'&2-*& B")72"&.) V"--'7 R'0.+)
L'3'- +, R.&8
P'$1')*"0' .) 2545
( S1')"$.+ 4 )
P'$1')*"0' .) 2535
( S1')"$.+ 2 )
P'$1')*"0' .) 2535 (
S1')"$.+ 3 )
3ow Risk F4,99 ; 7&,9( ; ,',57 ;
@oderate Risk 7,64 ; 47, '4 ; 5,,6& ;
Cigh Risk ' ; &,&F ; 5,76 ;
<rom the summary above shows that by maintaining green open space in accordance with the law 4o. 6&
on the .trategic :nvironmental Assessment %=3C.) can reduce the risk in &'6' to the dangers of climate
change.
CONCLUSION AND REMARK
<rom the test result of water quality at research study the location is still possible to take raw
water for clean water at Canal .ebalik and must be kept from impact of climate change. <rom preliminary
study at 0anyuasin *alley, ha2ard and vulnerability at baseline condition is still in safe condition and and
the need to restructure the space for future development to keep from impact of climate change. "n
pro1ection condition with scenario 6 by maintaining green open space area 6' ; can reduce the risk in &'6'
to the dangers of climate change.
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