Decision Support System Emilio J. Nunez The University of Texas W3C Workshop on Semantic Web in Oil & Gas Industry, Houston, December 9,10, 2008 Outline Background Our Focus Our Approach Pilots Some Tentative Visions Next Steps Acknowledgements Background UT Expertise in Enhanced Oil Recovery Knowledge in Professors and Students Dissertations and Papers Laboratory Procedures Laboratory Data Need for Integrated Approach Industry needs help in Decision-Making Our Focus Workflows to be Considered Screening Laboratory Geology Simulation Field Trial Production Decision Making Processes in Enhanced Oil Recovery (EOR) For a given reservoir: 1. Which EOR Methods are most promising? 2. What is the potential for each of the promising EOR Methods? 3. What is the best design for each EOR Method to be applied? e.g. Best Alkaline, Surfactant, Polymer (ASP) Formulation? Our Approach Capture Knowledge Focus on EOR and its Workflows Build Ontology Pilots Create Knowledge Base and Query System An Ontology Is Often J ust the Beginning Ontologies Software agents Problem- solving methods Domain- independent applications Databases Declare structure Knowledge bases Provide domain description Ontology Development 101: A Guide to Creating Your First Ontology by Natalya F. Noy and Deborah L. McGuinness Pilots EOR Screening Ontology Pilot Surfactant Selection Workflow Expanded to EOR General Ontology with Chemicals EOR Simplified Recovery Calculation Ontology Pilot Scale-Up Uncertainty in Reservoir Characterization Pilot Risk Management Ontology Pilot EOR Screening Ontology Pilot Depth Limitations... Permeability Guides... Preferred Oil Viscosity Ranges... Hydrocarbon- Miscible Nitrogen and Flue Gas CO 2 Flooding Surfactant/ Polymer Polymer Alkaline Fire Flood Steam Drive EOR Method Very Good Very Good Good Good Good Good Good Good Good Good Fair Fair Fair More Difficult More Difficult More Difficult Very Difficult Very Difficult Difficult Not Feasible Not Feasible Not Feasible Not Feasible May Not Be Possible (Can Be Waterflooded) Oil Viscosity - Centipoise at Reservoir Conditions 0.1 1 10 100 1000 10000 100000 1000000 Partial TORIS Data Base EOR Methods Reservoir hasEORMethod Depth Oil Viscosity Permeability Rules Protg Protg Rules Editor Protg Expert System Shell Individual EOR Methods Individual Reservoirs TORIS Data Base EOR Screening Ontology Pilot Summary Use of SWRL. Use of Expert System Engine (J ESS) Large numbers of reservoirs screened at once Relatively simple structure in ontology Surfactant Selection Workflow START CONTINUE 1 of 3 START CONTINUE 2 of 3 3 of 3 START Workflow Driven Ontologies (WDO) Leonardo Salayanda, University of Texas at El Paso Contains subclasses that are used to specify workflow actions and control flow. Contains subclasses used to represent primitive data concepts of a domain, as well as classes used to compose complex data constructs that are both consumed by and derived from workflow actions. Actions (Services, algorithms, application functionalities) Contains 2 or more workflows Alternative outputs for a method EOR General Ontology with Chemicals Surfactant Formulation Workflow and EOR Ontology with Chemicals Pilot Summary Complex Basis for Decision Support System Organization of Concepts in Domain Workflow-based Ontology Work in progress EOR Simplified Recovery Calculation Ontology C A B D A I J Depth Limitations... Preferred Oil Viscosity Ranges... Hydrocarbon -Miscible Nitrogen and Flue Gas CO 2 Flooding Surfactant/ Polymer Polymer Alkal ine Fire Flood Steam Drive EOR Method Very Good Very Good Good Good Good Good Good Good Good Good Fair Fair Fair More Di ffi cul t More Di ffi cul t More Di ffi cul t Very Difficult Very Difficult Di ffi cul t Not Feasi ble Not Feasi ble Not Feasible Not Feasi ble May Not Be Possible (Can Be Waterfl ooded) Oil Viscosity - Centipoise at Reservoir Condi tions 0.1 1 10 100 1000 10000 100000 1000000 Hydrocarbon -Miscible Nitrogen and Flue Gas CO 2 Flooding Surfactant/ Polymer Polymer Alkal ine Fire Flood Steam Drive EOR Method Hydrocarbon -Miscible Nitrogen and Flue Gas CO 2 Flooding Surfactant/ Polymer Polymer Alkal ine Fire Flood Steam Drive EOR Method Very Good Very Good Good Good Good Good Good Good Good Good Fair Fair Fair More Di ffi cul t More Di ffi cul t More Di ffi cul t Very Difficult Very Difficult Di ffi cul t Not Feasi ble Not Feasi ble Not Feasible Not Feasi ble May Not Be Possible (Can Be Waterfl ooded) Oil Viscosity - Centipoise at Reservoir Condi tions 0.1 1 10 100 1000 10000 100000 1000000 0.1 1 10 100 1000 10000 100000 1000000 Permeability Guides... Simplified Recovery Calculation Ontology Pilot Summary Large Complex Calculation Essentially one Property is calculated from Errors, insights found when ontology and CMAP created Previously available only to students to read. Now available to software agents Scale-Up Uncertainty Ontology Motivation EOR Experimental scale Physical scale Uncertainty in Scale up Workflow Non-Linearly Averaging Second Porosity 1.Transform the secondary porosity to another variable space that is linearly additive 2.Normal score transform the second porosity data and compute semi-variograms Construct a licit 3D variogrammodel with sill standardized to be 1.0. 3.Calculations of representative elementary volume and variance of mean using the 3D point- scale variogramfrom Step #2. 4.Computation of up-scaled variogramvia linear volume averaging. 5.Use of the up-scaled variogramfrom Step #4 to perform conditional simulation. 6.Backtransform simulated values to secondary porosity units scale up uncertainty Example of Instances in the Ontology Scale-Up Ontology Pilot Summary Captured Knowledge of Different Scale-Up Methods Use SQWRL to answer queries on steps involved in particular scale-up procedure EOR Ontology: Risk Based Decision Making Pilot Side Top Unfractured Radial Side Top Unfractured Radial Frac Frac Fractured Linear Frac Frac Frac Frac Fractured Linear Mature Onshore Deepwater Tight Gas Heavy Oil Portfolio Decisions Estimate the value of implementing sensors in four different advanced hydrocarbon recovery scenarios. Initial Prod. Rate (bbl/D) Decline Rate (%/yr) 5 15 5 15 5 15 5 15 5 15 5 15 5 15 5 15 1.33 1.02 0.120 0.058 0.599 0.405 -0.0306 -0.095 1.350 1.039 0.138 0.0765 0.634 0.440 -0.0040 -0.061 Continue WF CO 2 Flood Continue WF CO 2 Flood 0.129MM$ 0.234 MM$ 0.332 MM$ 0.384 MM$ Sensor No Sensor 0.234 MM$ 0.384 MM$ 25 5 15.6 5.2 25 5 15.6 5.2 0.0095 0.0005 0.9405 0.0495 0.25 0.25 0.475 0.025 0.04816 0.15291 0.7574 0.0416 0.3975 0.30 0.29 0.0125 Prob. Outcome (MM$/pattern) Decision Tree Mature Reservoir VoS=0.384-0.234=0.15 MM$ Framework of Classes Mature Reservoir Instances Risk Management Ontology Pilot Summary General Risk Management Concepts Specific Application Captured all numbers and meanings from published SPE paper Now available to software agents Some Tentative Visions Generic Laboratory Workflow Generic Field Trial Workflow Generic Geologic Workflow Generic Simulation Workflow Generic Operations Workflow EOR Polymer Workflow Ontology EOR Surfactant Workflow Ontology Generic Petroleum Workflow Ontology Data Method Product EOR Screening Ontology EOR CO2 Flooding Workflow Ontology EOR Surfactant Laboratory Workflow Data Base Data Mining Salinity Scan Core Flood IRSS UTCHEM Forecasting VOI A Vision for an Ontology-Based EOR Intelligent Decision Support System EOR Surfactant Simulation Workflow EOR Surfactant Field Trial Workflow EOR Surfactant Operations Workflow Surfactants Data Base Reservoir and Oil Properties Solvents Data Base Alkalis Data Base Polymers Data Base Lab Tests Chemical Flood Formulation Field Trial Transition Decision Rules Operations Simulation EOR Project Operations Data Base Field Trial Results Data Base Simulation Results Data Base Lab Test Results Data Base Status Forecast VOI Workflow Definition Chemical EOR Master Program Protg API PROTEGE User Interface EOR IDSS Architecture Vision Possible Queries for Decision Support System What EOR Methods should be considered for this reservoir? How do we calculate the oil recovery vs. time when this EOR Project is implemented? What is the total porosity/permeability of the reservoir and what is their uncertainty? If chemical flooding, what chemicals should be considered as candidates for surfactants, co-surfactants, alkali, polymers, co-solvents for this particular chemical flooding project? What is a rough estimate of the net present value (NPV) of this EOR Project? How much uncertainty is associated with the prediction of performance in the field? Given that chemicals are available and the NPV is acceptable, what is the chemical EOR formulation that we should simulate? How do we calculate the value of doing more lab work before going into production with this EOR method? Should we do a pilot test in the field? How do we decide whether to skip a step in the process to accelerate production? Next Steps Use Lessons from Pilots to Design the Ontology Based EOR Decision Support System. Prepare Software Development Plan including Knowledge Capture and Ontology Development Thanks to the Co-Authors Larry W. Lake Robert B. Gilbert Sanjay Srinivasan Fan Yang Mark W. Kroncke ALL from The University of Texas at Austin ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS We Thank For Sponsoring This Work