Unit 1 Research Problems and solutions; research Projects

A Researcher's Job

Pose a question about the problem
Collect data/information related to the problem
Find out solution(s) to the problem

Choose the best one (Optimal Solution)

Advantages:
Knowledge
Skills (field Knowledge)
Applications/ practice / usages i.e. Implementation

RESEARCH
Research is an advancement of knowledge through systematic Investigation for easy problem
solutions with efficiency, reliablity, accuracy, credibility, ... etc.
Sample Questions:
Q1. Why is the reliability of power supply in India so poor, compared to that of Cannada or USA?
Q2. Why is the productivity in Japan so high compared to that of India?

Let's consider the first question

Here it is talking of the Reliability of Power Supply in India compared to that of Cannada or
USA. If we look into the satistics we find that the reliability of power supply in Cannada is
99.96%, USA is 99.6% and that of India is 88%. So here the term reliability is clearly definable
and will be easy to analyse the cause ofsuch differences between the above three mentioned
countries
Let's now considet the second question
Here it is trying ot compare the productivity of two countries i.e India and Japan. If we see the
term productivity it is not clear about which productivity it is talking about; it can the Human
productivity or it can be the productivity of Plant and Machinery or some other productivity.
Moreover it is also not clear what is needed to be compared to arive at the productivity. So
Productivity here is a vague term which will make the research a difficult one.
So, from the above two questions it is clear that we need to do a intensive research to set the research
questions so that it is easy to analyse and come to a definite conclusion. We should avoid the vague
terms as much as possible.
Writing a research project

A research project should be organised in the following manner

Chapter 1 : Introduction / Scope of the Problem
It should be completed in 20 to 25pages
Chapter 2: Literature Survey
It should be completed in 40 to 50 pages
From chapter 3 onwards we should organise the various chapters dedicated to the actual research work
carried out and we will discuss the same in our forth comming units. As of now we will discuss the
contents of Chapter 1 and 2.

Project
Identification / Needs
Solution approaches
Modelling and Simulation
Analytical Approach
Graphical
Mathematical
Impirical
Exploratory
Causal

Home Assignment
A Car Manufacturing Company finds sales very poor and also the price values fluctuate so much that
the company has started incurring losses. The CEO of the company is advised to regulate the business
hours 20% more . So, he wishes to know from you a solution which can make the company profitable
Please formulate and analyse the problem and give solution


A Phd Research should be able to find an answer to any one of the following question:
1. Whether a NOVEL CONTRIBUTION made?
2. Whether add to existing known facts or knowledge (i.e. ADVANCEMENT OF
KNOWLEDGE)?
3. Whether any INTER-DISCIPLINARY activites of Industries, business ... etc are achieved?


Unit 2 Quantitave Methods

2.1 Two State System:
In this unit let's consider a system which has two states i.e Sucess (Up State) and Falure (Down State).
A System can be defined as a process which has an Input and a final output and can be graphically
depicted as follows




















MTBF = m+r

MTTF :- Mean time to Failure
MTTR :- Mean time to Repair
MTBF : Mean time between Failure
Processing
Input
Output
MTTR (r)
State
Time
t=0
t
MTTR (m)
Up
Down
Figure 1: System process
Figure 2: Frequency & Distribution Model
2.2 Quality Assurance

2.3 The System Modelling
Series Model






Parallel Model









Complex Model















(1) (3) (2)
Input Output
Figure 3: Series Model
(1)
(2)
Output
Input
Figure 4: Parallel Model
Input
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
Output
Figure 5: Complex Model





(lamda) = failure rate
(Mu) = repair rate
m =

, r =

In series model (refer Figure 3: Series Model) the probability of success is given by:

A
s
= A
1
. A
2
. A
3
Where A
s
= Probability of system success
A
1
, A
2
, A
3
= probability of success of each element

Note: This rule is referred to as Probability rule of availability
In series system it is required that each element availability should be high for the system to have
higher availability
Example : Lets consider a situation where A
1
=A
2
= A
3
= 0.9 then the As is given by:
A
s
= A
1
. A
2
. A
3
= 0.9 . 0.9 . 0.9
= 0.729 i.e. 72.9 %
Note : In the series model we can see that though the probability of success of each element is 90% but
the probability of success of the system is reduced to 72.9 %. If we make a back calculation we can see
that for the system to be available for 90% time we need to have the success rate of each element as
96.6%. So we can conclude that each elements availability should be high for the system to have
higher availability.
In Parallel model (refer Figure 4: Parallel Model) the probability of success is given by:

A
s
= 1 [( 1 - A
1
) ( 1 - A
2
)]
= 1 ( 1 A
2
A
1
+ A
1
A
2
)
= A
2
+ A
1
- A
1
A
2
Where, 1 A
i
= Probability of unavailability of element A
i

UP Down


Note : This rule is referred to as Probability rule of Unavailability
Example : in this situation also lets consider the success rate of each element as 90%, then the system
success rate is given by:
A
s
= A
2
+ A
1
- A
1
A
2

=0.9 + 0.9 0.9*0.9
= 1.8 0.81
= 0.99
Note : In the parallel model the system success rate is more than the success rate of each element
In Complex Model (refer Figure 5: Complex Model) the probability of system success is given by:

P
ss
=

Where Pss = Probability of system success,
Px = probability of success of element x,
Qx = Probability of system failure of element x i.e. 1-Px,

Note this rule is referred to as Conditional Probability theory


In the above situation the system success rate is given by:

Lets consider assuming that element A1 holds good:

Then the system success is :

P
ss
=


System success when P
1
is good
P
2
+P
4
P
2
.P
4
(eq1) Refer to series model
System success when P
1
is bad

P3. P4 (eq2)

Putting eq1 and eq2 in the above model we get

(P
2
+P
4
P
2
.P
4
)P
1
+ (P
3
. P4). (1 P
1
)

= P
1
.P
2
+ P
1
.P
4
P
1
.P
2
.P
4
+ P
3
.P
4
P
1
.P
3
.P
4

Lets now consider the each element has a success rate of 90% then the system success is given by:

Pss = P
1
.P
2
+ P
1
.P
4
P
1
.P
2
.P
4
+ P
3
.P
4
P
1
.P
3
.P
4

= 0.9* 0.9 + 0.9*0.9 0.9*0.9*0.9 +0.9*0.9 0.9*0.9*0.9
P
ss

x is good


[ ]

. P
x
+
P
ss

x is bad
[

. Q
x

]
P
ss

P
1
is good


[ ]

. P
1
+
P
ss

P
1
is bad
[

. Q
1
]
= 0.81 + 0.81 0.729 +0.81 0.729
= 0.972

Home assignment 2:





















2.4 Frequency & Distribution (F& D ) Method:






P
up
=
()
() ()
=

Probability of up state,
(lamda) = failure rate
(Mu) = repair rate
Since we know m =

, r =

Now by substituting the value of m and r we get

P
up
=

Similarly we can calculate the probability of down state (P
dn
)

Input
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
Output
(5)
Find out the Probability of system success Pss for the
system shown in the figure with the assumption that each
elements probability of success is 90% i.e.
P
1
= P
2
= P
3
= P
4
= P
5
= 0.9
UP Down


P
dn
=

Therefore we can say

P
up
. = P
dn
.

2.5 Cost benefit Analysis

Lets consider a situation where we have a production target of X quantity and we have plants with
capacity of x/2. Therefore we need two plants to fulfil our target production. We also assume that each
plants probability of success is 90%. From the above facts and figures we can draw a plant capacity
outage table:

Table 1: Plant Capacity Outage Table
Capacity In Capacity outage Probability (1) Loss (2) Risk (1). (2)
X 0 .81 ( 0.9 x 0.9) 0 0
x/2 x/2 .18 ( 2 x 0.9 x .1) x/2 .09x
0 X 0.01 (.1 x .1) X 0.01x
Total 1.0 0.1x


In the above case we can say that the risk in above situation the risk is 0.1 or 10%.

Lets now consider the above situation where the capacity of each plant is x/3 then we will need three
plants to full fill our target.

Table 2: Plant capacity Outage Table (situation 2)
Capacity In Capacity outage Probability (1) Loss (2) Risk (1). (2)
x 0 0.729 0 0
x/2 2x/3 0.243 x/3 0.081x
x/3 x/3 0.027 2x/3 0.018x
0 x/3 0.001 x/3 0.001x
Total 1 .10x

Even in this case the risk is 0.1 or 10%

Now, lets consider situation where each plant capacity is x/2 and we install 3 units (one as a standby)
then the Plant capacity outage table is given as follows:

Capacity In Capacity outage Probability (1) Loss (2) Risk (1). (2)
x 0 0.729 0 0
x/2 x 0.243 0 0
x/3 x/3 0.027 2x/3 0.018x
0 x/3 0.001 x 0.001x
Total 1 0.019x
So, we can see if we have a standby plant the plant capacity outage is reduced to 0.19 i.e. 1.9% only.

Note : The Probability follows the binomial rule i.e. if there are two plants it follows (p +q)
2
where p is
the probability of success and q = probability of failure, and when there is 3 units it is (p+q)
3
.
(p +q)
2 =
P
2
+2pq +q
2

(p +q)
3
= p
3
+ 3p
2
q+3pq
2
+q
3




Unit 3 : Research Data collection and Hypothesis

Data can be divided into two parts i.e. primary and secondary. Various sources of data can be divided
as follows:


Data
o Primary
From field (survey)
Questionnaire
Feedback
Interviews
o Secondary
Literature Search
Journals / Periodicals
Books / Reports
Monographs
Records
Data Banks

Steps to be followed in Research design
1. Design You Problem
2. Calculate the Mean time for each element
3. P
ss
to be evaluated
4. Predict the Risk Element
Note : Mean =

Chapter orientation of a Research report is given as
1. Introduction (Scope of the Problem)
2. Literature Search
3. Model Development for Research & Study
(Identification of Parameters)
4. Model Analysis and Results
5. Critical Analysis of Results and Contribution of Research
6. Summary and Conclusion