A critical review on the estimation of daily global

solar radiation from sunshine duration

Mehmet Yorukoglu, Ali Naci Celik
*
Department of Mechanical Engineering, Faculty of Engineering and Architecture, Mustafa Kemal University, 31024 Antakya, Hatay, Turkey
Received 23 May 2005; accepted 15 November 2005
Available online 28 December 2005
Abstract
Models such as the Angstro mPrescott equation are used to estimate global solar radiation from sunshine duration. In
the literature, researchers investigate either the goodness of the model itself or the goodness of the estimation of global
solar radiation based on a set of statistical parameters such as R
2
, RMSE, MBE, MABE, MPE and MAPE. If the former
is the objective, then the statistical analysis should naturally be based on H/H
o
S/S
o
(the ratio of daily solar radiation to
extraterrestrial daily solar radiation vs. the ratio of sunshine duration to day length). If the latter is investigated, then the
statistical analysis should be based on H
c
H
m
(calculated daily solar radiation vs. measured daily solar radiation). A lit-
erature survey undertaken in the present article showed that these two data sets are apt to be confused, drawing the sta-
tistical parameters to be used in assessment of the estimation model from the latter data set or the vice versa set. The
statistical parameters are clearly derived from the basics for both of the data sets, and the inconsistencies caused by this
confusion and other factors are exposed. A case study of the estimation models and global solar radiation estimation from
sunshine duration is presented using ve dierent models (linear, quadratic, cubic, logarithmic and exponential), which are
the most common models used in the literature, based on 6 years long measured hourly global solar radiation data.
2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Keywords: Estimation of daily global solar radiation; Angstro mPrescott model; Sunshine duration
1. Introduction
The amount of global solar radiation and its temporal distribution are the primary variables for designing
solar energy systems. Knowledge of these parameters is required for prediction of the system eciency of a
possible solar energy system at a particular location. However, global solar radiation is measured only at a
limited number of sites in the world, while sunshine duration is measured in many stations. Therefore, it
has been the most widely available factor for solar radiation estimations [1]. Then, objective interpolation
of solar radiation measurement is often required for the sites where measurements do not exist, using global
0196-8904/$ - see front matter 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
doi:10.1016/j.enconman.2005.11.002
*
Corresponding author. Tel.: +90 532 2277353; fax: +90 326 2455499.
E-mail address: ancelik@hotmail.com (A.N. Celik).
Energy Conversion and Management 47 (2006) 24412450
www.elsevier.com/locate/enconman
solar radiation estimations calculated from sunshine duration data. Furthermore, sunshine duration measure-
ment is easier than global radiation measurement. It is, therefore, likely that the accuracy of sunshine duration
measurement is higher than that of global solar radiation.
Research for estimating global solar radiation from the duration of sunshine was initiated by Angstro m in
the 1920s [2]. He rst proposed the following linear relationship between the ratio of global irradiation (H) to
cloudless global irradiation (H
cl
) and the ratio of sunshine duration (S) to astronomical day duration (S
o
, i.e.
day length),
H
H
cl
a 1 a
S
S
o
1
Angstro m determined the value of a as 0.25 from Stockholm data. However, 30 years after publishing his
rst article, Angstro m stated that Eq. (1) was obtained from mean monthly data and should not be used with
daily data [3].
To estimate H from sunshine records, Angstro ms model required measurements of global radiation on
completely clear days (H
cl
). This limitation prompted Prescott [4] to develop a model that was a function
of the extraterrestrial radiation on a horizontal surface (H
o
), rather than H
cl
, since H
o
can be easily calculated.
This modied Angstro m equation is known as the Angstro mPrescott equation [5,6], which is given as
H
H
o
a b
S
S
o
2
The model coecients of a and b were determined as 0.22 and 0.54, respectively, by Prescott [4].
Nomenclature
ad empirical constants
G
sc
solar constant (G
sc
= 1367 W/m
2
)
H daily global solar radiation on horizontal surface (MJ/m
2
)
H
o
daily extraterrestrial radiation on horizontal surface (MJ/m
2
)
n number of day of year starting from rst of January
k eccentricity correction factor
R
2
coecient of determination
S sunshine duration (h)
S
o
day length (h)
Greek letters
x
s
sunset hour angle (degree)
d solar declination (degree)
/ latitude of site (degree)
r standard deviation
Acronyms
MAE mean absolute error
MABE mean absolute bias error
MAPE mean absolute percentage error
MBE mean bias error
MPE mean percentage error
NSE NashSutclie equation
RMSE root mean square error
SEE standard error of estimate
2442 M. Yorukoglu, A.N. Celik / Energy Conversion and Management 47 (2006) 24412450
In Eq. (2), H
o
and S
o
can be theoretically calculated. The extraterrestrial solar radiation on a horizontal
surface is calculated from,
H
o

24x3600
p
G
sc
k cos /cos d sin x
s

px
s
180
sin /sin d
_ _
3
where G
sc
is the solar constant (= 1367 W/m
2
[7]), and k is the eccentricity correction factor. The eccentricity
correction factor k can be calculated using the following:
k 1 0:033 cos
360n
365
_ _
4
where n is the number of the day of the year starting from the rst of January. The declination d can be found
from the equation of Cooper [8]:
d 23:45 sin 360
284 n
365
_ _
5
The sunset hour angle x
s
can be found from the equation given in Ref. [8] as:
x
s
cos
1
tan /tan d 6
where / is the latitude of the site. The day length S
o
can be calculated using the following equation [9]:
S
o

2x
s
15
7
2. Parameters used in assessing the estimation models
Models such as the Angstro mPrescott equation are used to estimate global solar radiation from sunshine
duration. In the literature, researchers investigate either the goodness of the model itself or the estimation of
global solar radiation based on a set of statistical parameters such as R
2
, RMSE, MBE, MABE, MPE and
MAPE. If the goodness of the model is investigated, then the statistical parameters should naturally be drawn
from the data set of H/H
o
S/S
o
, as given in Fig. 1. If the latter is the objective of a study, then the statistical
parameters should be obtained from the data set of H
c
H
m
, as given in Fig. 2. It is shown below that
researchers do not always use the correct statistical parameters to assess the estimation model or the global
solar radiation estimation, drawing the statistical parameters from the latter data set to assess the estimation
y
m
H
o
H
m
=
y
i,m
H
i,o
H
i,m
=
y
c
H
o
H
c
=
y
i,c
H
i,o
H
i,c
=
x
i
S
i,o
S
i
=
S
o
S
= x
d
i1
Fig. 1. The least squares regression for Angstro mPrescott equation (subscript c denotes the calculated value and m the measured value).
M. Yorukoglu, A.N. Celik / Energy Conversion and Management 47 (2006) 24412450 2443
model or vice versa. The statistical parameters are clearly derived from the basics for both the data sets, and
the confusions and inconsistencies in the denitions of the statistical parameters that are quite common in the
literature are exposed below.
3. Derivation of statistical parameters
The goal of regression analysis is to determine the values of the parameters that minimize the sum of the
squared residual values for the set of observations [10]. In linear regression, the function is a linear (straight
line) equation. This is known as a least squares regression t, minimizing the sum of d
2
i
s as shown in Fig. 1.
However, it is a well known fact that some phenomena cannot be accurately modelled by a linear equation.
Then, curvilinear regression is employed with non-linear functions such as a quadratic or exponential [10]. The
Pearson productmoment correlation coecient, or correlation coecient (R) for short is a measure of the
degree of linear relationship between two variables, as labelled x and y
m
in Fig. 1. Applying the least squares
regression for the Angstro mPrescott equation, as given in Fig. 1, Eq. (8) is obtained,
F

n
i1
d
2
i

n
i1
y
i;m
y
i;c
_ _
2

n
i1
y
i;m
a bx
i

_ _
2
8
By determining the values of a and b that minimise F, the best line can be found. The following method can be
used to determine these parameters. Firstly, the following are obtained:
oF
oa
2

n
i1
y
i;m
a bx
i

_ _
0 9
oF
ob
2

n
i1
y
i;m
a bx
i

_ _
x
i
0 10
The following equations are then formed depending on a and b:
an b

n
i1
x
i

n
i1
y
i;m
11
a

n
i1
x
i
b

n
i1
x
2
i

n
i1
x
i
y
i;m
12
m
H
c m
H H =
i,m
H
'
m
H
i,c
H
c i
H
,
c
H
d
i2
Fig. 2. The least squares regression for H
c
H
m
(calculated daily solar radiation measured daily solar radiation).
2444 M. Yorukoglu, A.N. Celik / Energy Conversion and Management 47 (2006) 24412450
Finally, the parameters are calculated as
a

n
i1
y
i;m
b

n
i1
x
i
n
y bx 13
b
n

n
i1
x
i
y
i;m

n
i1
x
i

n
i1
y
i;m
n

n
i1
x
2
i


n
i1
x
i
_ _
2
14
If it is a nonlinear regression, the unknown parameters can be calculated in a similar manner, forming as many
equations as the number of unknown parameters. The correlation coecient R is then dened by
R
r
2
x;y
r
x
r
y

XY

X

Y

X
2

X
2
_ _
n

Y
2

Y
2
_ _
_

X XY Y
_ _

X X
2

Y Y
2
_ 15
The correlation coecient R ranges between 1 and +1. The value of the correlation coecient is a measure
of the strength of the relationship. A correlation coecient of R = 0.50 indicates a stronger degree of linear
relationship than one of R = 0.40. Likewise, a correlation coecient of R = 0.50 shows a greater degree of
relationship than one of R = 0.40. Thus, a correlation coecient of zero (R = 0.0) indicates the absence of a
linear relationship and correlation coecients of R = +1.0 and 1.0 indicate a perfect linear relationship. The
coecient of determination is,
R
2
1

n
i1
y
i;m
y
i;c

n
i1
y
i;m
y
m

2
16
Applying Eq. (16) to Fig. 1, the following is obtained:
R
2
1
1

n
i1
H
i;m
H
i;o

H
i;c
H
i;o
_ _
2

n
i1
H
i;m
H
i;o

H
m
H
o
_ _ _ _
2
1
RMSE
2
1
r
2
1
17a
Applying Eq. (16) to Fig. 2, the following is obtained:
R
2
2
1

n
i1
H
i;m
H
i;c

2

n
i1
H
i;m
H
m
_ _
2
1
RMSE
2
2
r
2
2
17b
Expressing R
2
as in Eqs. (17a) and (17b) contributes to understanding of the relationships between the param-
eters; that is R
2
is a function of RMSE and r. A further deduction is that R
2
increases as RMSE decreases or
vice versa because r
2
is constant for a particular data set. Similar to Eqs. (17a) and (17b), applying the def-
initions of the parameters of d
i
, RMSE, MBE, MABE, MPE and MAPE, as described in Refs. [1113], to
Figs. 1 and 2, Table 1 is obtained. As can be seen in Table 1, MPE and MAPE remain the same, while RMSE,
MBE and MABE change with the data set used. The subscripts of 1 and 2 denote the data set from which the
parameters are derived.
4. Critical review
An index of the researchers and the parameters that they used for assessing the goodness of an estimation
model or the estimation of daily or monthly global solar radiation from sunshine duration are presented in
Table 2. It is noted in Table 2 that some of the researchers drew the statistical parameters from the
H/H
o
S/S
o
data set, for example, Elagib and Mansel [11] and Elagib et al. [21], while most of the researchers
cited in Table 2 determined the statistical parameters from the H
c
H
m
data set, mostly regardless of what
their objective was. Note in Table 2 that a question mark ? was used for the cases where the name of the
parameter was declared by the authors but the formula of the parameter was not given. It was, therefore,
impossible to deduce from the explanations whether they were from the H/H
o
S/S
o
or the H
c
H
m
data
sets, as in Almorox and Hontario [14], Lin and Lu [17] and Hussain et al. [20]. Amongst these, however,
M. Yorukoglu, A.N. Celik / Energy Conversion and Management 47 (2006) 24412450 2445
Table 1
Formulae of d
i
, RMSE, MBE, MABE, MPE and MAPE for two dierent data sets
Data set 1 (Fig. 1) Data set 2 (Fig. 2)
Formula Unit Equation Formula Unit Equation
d
i1

H
i;m
H
i;o

H
i;c
H
i;o
(18a) d
i2
H
i;m
H
i;c
(MJ m
2
day
1
) (18b)
RMSE
1

1
n

n
i1
H
i;m
H
i;o

H
i;c
H
i;o
_ _
2

_
(19a)
RMSE
2

1
n

n
i1
H
i;m
H
i;c

2

(MJ m
2
day
1
) (19b)
MBE
1

1
n

n
i1
H
i;m
H
i;o

H
i;c
H
i;o
_ _
(20a)
MBE
2

1
n

n
i1
H
i;m
H
i;c

(MJ m
2
day
1
) (20b)
MABE
1

1
n

n
i1
H
i;m
H
i;o

H
i;c
H
i;o

_ _
(21a)
MABE
2

1
n

n
i1
H
i;m
H
i;c

_ _ (MJ m
2
day
1
) (21b)
MPE
1

1
n

n
i1
H
i;m
H
i;c
H
i;m
_ _
100
(22) MPE
2
MPE
1
(22)
MAPE
1

1
n

n
i1
H
i;m
H
i;c
H
i;m

_ _
100
(23) MAPE
2
MAPE
1
(23)
2
4
4
6
M
.
Y
o
r
u
k
o
g
l
u
,
A
.
N
.
C
e
l
i
k
/
E
n
e
r
g
y
C
o
n
v
e
r
s
i
o
n
a
n
d
M
a
n
a
g
e
m
e
n
t
4
7
(
2
0
0
6
)
2
4
4
1

2
4
5
0
deducing from the R
2
values presented, it is highly likely that Almorox and Hontario [14] drew the statistical
parameters from the data set of H/H
o
S/S
o
. The researchers that use the H/H
o
S/S
o
data set calculate the
statistical parameters that are the measure of the goodness of the estimation model. The researchers that use
the H
c
H
m
data set calculate the statistical parameters that do not represent the goodness of the model used,
but that of H
0
m
. Because these two sets of parameters are completely dierent, it is meaningless to compare
them. However, it is quite common in the literature to refer to the numerical values of a particular set of
parameters as the other. For example, Almorox and Hontoria [14] refer to the coecients calculated from
the H
c
H
m
data set in Refs. [19,20], while they themselves deal with the statistical parameters of the data
set of H/H
o
S/S
o
. This is because these two dierent sets of parameters are not distinguished properly.
As noted in Table 2, it is more common to calculate the statistical parameters based on the H
c
H
m
data
set in the literature. Elagib and Mansel [11] and Elagib et al. [21] correctly drew the statistical parameters from
the H/H
o
S/S
o
data set, as their objective was to study the estimation model itself (i.e. the relationship
between clearness index (H/H
o
) and relative sunshine duration (S/S
o
)). However, Ertekin and Yaldiz [13],
Chen et al. [16], Nguyen and Pryor [22] and Almorox et al. [23] drew the statistical parameters from the
H
c
H
m
data set, while their objective, which is deduced from the title of their articles, was to determine
the coecients of the Angstro mPrescott equation.
Further inconsistencies are encountered in the literature, as presented in Table 2. Firstly, a particular
parameter was named dierently by dierent researchers. For example, Chen et al. [16] named R
2
2
as NSE
(NashSutclie Equation). Almorox and Hontaria [14] named what are usually known as RMSE and MABE
as SEE and MAE, respectively. Tadros [18] denoted MAPE as e, dening it as the absolute percentage of the
deviation of the estimated measured values of global solar radiation. Secondly, the parameters were dened
incorrectly as in the case of Ampratwum and Dorvlo [12], who confused MPE and MAPE, and as in the case
of Togrul and Onat [15], who confused MBE and MPE. Another inconsistency is that a particular parameter
was given by a dierent formula that is dierent from the usually accepted denition. For example, Togrul and
Onat [15] described RMSE as
RMSE
3

1
n

n
i1
H
i;c
H
i;m
H
i;m
_ _
2

_
24
Table 2
M. Yorukoglu, A.N. Celik / Energy Conversion and Management 47 (2006) 24412450 2447
Nguyen and Pryor [22] described RMSE and MBE as
RMSE
4
% 100
1
H
m

n
i1
H
i;c
H
i;m

2
n
_ _

_
25
MBE
3
% 100
1
H
m

n
i1
H
i;c
H
i;m

n
26
Finally, some researchers used completely dierent parameters than the commonly used parameters, for exam-
ple, Ertekin and Yaldiz [13] and Almorox et al. [23]. Ertekin and Yaldiz [13] described a parameter called the
percentage error as follows to assess the goodness of the global irradiation prediction,
e
H
i;m
H
i;c
H
i;m
_ _ _ _
100 27
Almorox et al. [23] described a parameter called the t-statistic dened as
t n 1 MBE
2
= RMSE
2
MBE
2
_ _ _
0:5
28
Another kind of inconsistency was realised in the article by Ampratwum and Dorvlo [12], who compared six
dierent models (linear, quadratic, linearlogarithmic, logarithmic, power and power-trigonometric) for a to-
tal of ve stations in Oman using 10 years long monthly average daily solar radiation data. They analysed each
of the stations separately and concluded that the power-trigonometric model was the best amongst the models.
They assessed the goodness of the solar radiation estimations in terms of R
2
2
and RMSE
2
. It is, however, inter-
esting to note that they calculated R
2
2
0:7193 and RMSE
2
= 0.9936 MJ/m
2
for the linear model and
R
2
2
0:7666 and RMSE
2
= 1.0005 MJ/m
2
for the power-trigonometric model for the Marmul station. How-
ever, as was pointed out earlier in Eq. (17b), this is not logical, because R
2
2
cannot increase unless RMSE
2
de-
creases or vice versa.
5. A case study
The Angstro mPrescott equation has been widely used by researchers in solar radiation research since Pres-
cott developed it in 1940 [4]. Alternative models to the Angstro mPrescott equation have since been proposed.
In the present article, ve of the models, which were previously used by researchers commonly, are used to
estimate the daily global solar radiation from the measured duration of sunshine hours. The models used are
1. Linear model (Angstro mPrescott model) as given by Eq. (2).
2. Quadratic model (O

gelman et al. model [24])

H
H
o
a b
S
S
o
c
S
S
o
_ _
2
29
3. Cubic model (Samuel model [25])
H
H
o
a b
S
S
o
c
S
S
o
_ _
2
d
S
S
o
_ _
3
30
4. Logarithmic model (Ampratwum and Dorvlo model [12])
H
H
o
a b log
S
S
o
_ _
31
5. Exponential model (Almorox and Hontaria model [14])
H
H
o
a be
S
So

32
2448 M. Yorukoglu, A.N. Celik / Energy Conversion and Management 47 (2006) 24412450
Six years long hourly average global solar radiation data on a horizontal surface and sunshine duration of
Ankara, Turkey (39.95N; 32.88E; 891 m elevation) are used in the present article. The data, measured by the
Turkish State Meteorological Service, covers the years from 1995 to 2000. The daily solar radiation (H) and
sunshine hours (S) are derived from the hourly values. The daily extraterrestrial radiation and the day length
are calculated from Eqs. (3) and (7), respectively. The parameters of the models used are then calculated as
was discussed above. The regression results and other statistical parameters calculated using the models are
presented in Table 3.
As the statistical parameters indicate for the Ankara data, overall, the cubic (third degree polynomial func-
tion) model returns the most favourable statistical results. As indicated by Eqs. (17a) and (17b), the values of
the R
2
s increase as the RMSEs decrease. The logarithmic and exponential models return relatively lower R
2
1
values when compared to the others, indicating less suitable models for the present data. The MABE
1
and
MAPE values, although secondary to either R
2
1
or RMSE
1
, are also an indication of the goodness of the mod-
els. Although the MPE seems to support the R
2
1
values as observed in Table 2, this may not always be the case.
The MBE
1
values are usually equal to zero or very close to zero and, therefore, do not provide any informa-
tion about the goodness of the models. Similarly, the MBE
2
values do not show any similar trend to the pri-
mary parameters of either R
2
2
or RMSE
2
and, therefore, are poor indicators of the goodness of the global solar
radiation estimation.
6. Conclusions
Estimation of global solar radiation from sunshine duration is a common procedure used in solar energy
engineering. Models such as the Angstro mPrescott equation are used for this purpose. The most important
conclusions arising from the current article are:
The objective in this particular eld of research is to investigate either the goodness of the model itself or the
goodness of the estimation of global solar radiation, each requiring a dierent data set. The researchers
conduct this investigation by means of a set of statistical parameters such as R
2
, RMSE, MBE, MABE,
MPE and MAPE.
The statistical parameters acquire a dierent mathematical meaning for each dierent data set. It is quite
common in the literature to compare the numerical values of a particular set of parameters to those of the
other. This is because the researchers seem not to distinguish between these two dierent sets of parameters
properly. This leads to inconsistencies in assessing the models or the estimation of global solar radiation.
Therefore, researchers should choose the appropriate data set according to their objective.
It is quite common that a particular parameter is named dierently by dierent researchers. Furthermore,
some parameters are dened incorrectly.
It was shown that R
2
could be derived as a function of RMSE and r as R
2
1
RMSE
2
r
2
. As the direct indi-
cator of the goodness of t, R
2
and RMSE are the primary parameters used in assessing the goodness of
models or the goodness of the estimation of global solar radiation from the duration of sunshine hours.
It was noted that MABE and MAPE values support the primary parameters for the present data. Even
though MPE seems to support the R
2
value, this may not always be the case, as there is not any mathemat-
ical relationship between them. MBE
1
and MBE
2
values do not show any similar trend to the primary
parameters and, therefore, are poor indicators of the goodness of t.
Table 3
Regression results and the statistical parameters for various models for Ankara
Model Eq. R
2
1
R
2
2
RMSE
1
RMSE
2
MBE
1
MBE
2
MABE
1
MABE
2
MPE MAPE
Linear (2) 0.859 0.962 0.0589 1.4979 0.0001 0.0182 0.0437 1.1407 4.68 13.32
Quadratic (29) 0.866 0.963 0.0568 1.4719 0.0000 0.0094 0.0427 1.1270 3.88 12.41
Cubic (30) 0.876 0.966 0.0546 1.4188 0.0000 0.0317 0.0403 1.0664 3.36 11.49
Logarithmic (31) 0.725 0.929 0.0969 1.8928 0.0000 0.0507 0.0561 1.4300 6.73 18.07
Exponential (32) 0.825 0.953 0.0648 1.6546 0.0000 0.0090 0.0481 1.2582 5.84 15.17
M. Yorukoglu, A.N. Celik / Energy Conversion and Management 47 (2006) 24412450 2449
Amongst the ve dierent models analysed in the present article, the Angstro mPrescott equation, the qua-
dratic and the cubic models returned quite similar values of R
2
1
and RMSE
1
. Even though the cubic model
returned the highest R
2
1
and the lowest RMSE
1
, when compared with the Angstro mPrescott model that is
the simplest amongst the models studied, it is noted that it is only slightly better than the latter. Therefore,
the advantage of the cubic model may be abandoned in return for a simpler model with half of the
parameters.
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