Guia de Decisiones

Modelo del repartidor de peridicos
Estado de la naturaleza
0
0
-40
-80
-120
1
-50
35
-5
-45
2
-100
-15
70
30
3
-150
-65
20
105
Probabilidad de Estado 0.1
0.3
0.4
0.2
Costo Faltante
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
135
140
145
150
-85
0
-8.5
-17
-25.5
-34
-42.5
-51
-59.5
-68
-76.5
-85
-93.5
-102
-110.5
-119
-127.5
-136
-144.5
-153
-161.5
-170
-178.5
-187
-195.5
-204
-212.5
-221
-229.5
-238
-246.5
-255
Rendimiento esperado
-12.5
22.5
27.5
32.5
50
23.5
31.5
19.5
30.5
15.5
29.5
0
11.5
28.5
7.5
27.5
3.5
26.5
-50
-0.5
25.5
-4.5
24.5
-8.5
23.5
-100
-12.5
22.5
-16.5
21.5
-20.5
20.5
-24.5
19.5
-150
-28.5
18.5
-32.5
17.5
-36.5
16.5
-200
-40.5
15.5
-44.5
14.5
-48.5
13.5
-250
-52.5
12.5
-56.5
11.5
-60.5
10.5
-300
-64.5
9.5
-68.5
8.5
-72.5
7.5
-76.5
6.5
-80.5
5.5
-84.5
4.5
-88.5
3.5
-92.5
2.5
Rendimiento
Esperado
-85
-12.5
22.5
7.5
7.5
7.5
7.5
7.5
7.5
7.5
7.5
7.5
7.5
7.5
7.5
7.5
7.5
7.5
7.5
7.5
7.5
7.5
7.5
7.5
7.5
7.5
7.5
7.5
7.5
7.5
7.5
7.5
7.5
7.5
7.5
7.5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Decisin
0
1
2
3
Ordenar 0
75
40
50
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
135
140
145
150
Datos
Precio venta
Precio compra
Demanda no satisfecha
Ordenar 1
Ordenar 2
Ordenar 3
Decisin
0
1
2
3
Estado de la naturaleza
0
1
0
-50
-40
35
-80
-5
-120
-45
Probabilidad de Estado
0.1
Mejor opcin por estado 0
Rendimiento Esperado 59.5
VEIP
37.0
0.3
35
2
-100
-15
70
30
3
-150
-65
20
105
0.4
0.2
70
105
Criterios
Maximin
-65
-150
-65
-80
-120
Maximax
105
0
35
70
105
Maxima Posibilidad
Valor Esperado
70
22.5
-100
-85
-15
-12.5
70
22.5
30
7.5
CC
CC
Mercado
Mercado
CC
CC
Mercado
Mercado
CC
CC
Mercado
Mercado
Costos mensuales
Alquiler
S/.
420.00
S/.
500.00
S/.
400.00
S/.
450.00
Servicios
S/.
S/.
S/.
S/.
Ingresos
Das por mes
Callao
Limasur
Paraso
Cenizas Rojas
Demanda Alta
S/.
400.00
S/.
400.00
S/.
400.00
S/.
400.00
Demanda Media
S/.
270.00
S/.
270.00
S/.
200.00
S/.
230.00
Demanda Baja
S/.
130.00
S/.
150.00
S/.
100.00
S/.
100.00
Callao
Limasur
Paraso
Cenizas Rojas
Demanda Alta
S/.
12,000.00
S/.
12,000.00
S/.
12,000.00
S/.
12,000.00
Demanda Media
S/.
8,100.00
S/.
8,100.00
S/.
6,000.00
S/.
6,900.00
Demanda Baja
S/.
3,900.00
S/.
4,500.00
S/.
3,000.00
S/.
3,000.00
Callao
Limasur
Paraso
Cenizas Rojas
420.00
500.00
250.00
250.00
Personal
S/.
S/.
S/.
S/.
400.00
400.00
400.00
400.00
30
Total
S/.
S/.
S/.
S/.
Utilidades
1,240.00
1,400.00
1,050.00
1,100.00
CC Callao
CC Limasur
Mercado Paraso
Mercado Cenizas Rojas
Demanda Alta
S/.
10,760.00
S/.
10,600.00
S/.
10,950.00
S/.
10,900.00
Demanda Media
S/.
6,860.00
S/.
6,700.00
S/.
4,950.00
S/.
5,800.00
Probabilidad (Laplace)
0.33
0.33
Demanda Baja
S/.
2,660.00
S/.
3,100.00
S/.
1,950.00
S/.
1,900.00
0.33
Resultado
Decisin
Maximax
S/.
10,760.00
S/.
10,600.00
S/.
10,950.00
S/.
10,900.00
S/.
10,950.00
Mercado Paraso
Maximin
S/. 2,660.00
S/. 3,100.00
S/. 1,950.00
S/. 1,900.00
S/. 3,100.00
CC Limasur
Laplace
S/. 6,760.00
S/. 6,800.00
S/. 5,950.00
S/. 6,200.00
S/. 6,800.00
CC Limasur
Decisin
Demanda
Alta
Producir
1000
750
300
Regular
100%
100%
100%
Precio Venta
Costo Produccin
S/.
S/.
190.00
38.60
Otros Costos
Distribucin
Publicidad
Costos fijos
% de Ingresos
0.1
0.15
10,000.00
50%
60%
100%
Ingresos
Producir
1000
750
300
Alta
S/. 190,000.00
S/. 142,500.00
S/. 57,000.00
Costos
Producir
1000
750
300
Alta
S/. 96,100.00
S/. 74,575.00
S/. 35,830.00
Regular
S/. 95,000.00
S/. 85,500.00
S/. 57,000.00
Regular
S/. 53,050.00
S/. 48,745.00
S/. 35,830.00
Utilidad
Producir
1000
750
300
Prob (Laplace)
Alta
Regular
S/. 93,900.00 S/. 41,950.00
S/. 67,925.00 S/. 36,755.00
S/. 21,170.00 S/. 21,170.00
0.5
0.5
Resultado
Decisin
Maximax
S/. 93,900.00
S/. 67,925.00
S/. 21,170.00
S/. 93,900.00
1000
Maximin
S/. 41,950.00
S/. 36,755.00
S/. 21,170.00
S/. 41,950.00
1000
Laplace
S/. 67,925.00
S/. 52,340.00
S/. 21,170.00
S/. 67,925.00
1000
Decisin
Demanda
Flota
Alta
Mediana
Baja
10
100%
100%
100%
15
100%
50%
100%
20
100%
50%
100%
Precio Descuento
S/. 180.00 S/. 125.00
Flota
10
15
20
Prob (Laplace)
Capacidad
(Pasajeros)
28
Ingreso por asiento
S/. 250.00
Alta
Mediana
S/. 70,000.00 S/. 70,000.00 S/.
S/. 105,000.00 S/. 90,300.00 S/.
S/. 140,000.00 S/. 120,400.00 S/.
0.33
0.33
Baja
70,000.00
52,500.00
10,000.00
0.33
Resultado
Decisin
Maximax
Maximin
S/. 70,000.00 S/. 70,000.00
S/. 105,000.00 S/. 52,500.00
S/. 140,000.00 S/. 10,000.00
S/. 140,000.00 S/. 70,000.00
20
10
S/.
S/.
S/.
S/.
Laplace
70,000.00
82,600.00
90,133.33
90,133.33
20
Producir en su fbrica
Comprar en mercado nacional
Importar de China
Probabilidades
Resultados mximos
Valor esperado mximo
VEIP
alta
500
570
600
20%
alta
600
476.25
33.75
media
475
460
500
55%
media
500
baja
325
300
-100
25%
baja
325
Valor Esperado
Resultado
Decisin
442.50
442.00
370.00
442.50
Producir en su fbrica
For Evaluation Only

0.75
Alta
Planta Tamao Completo
6000000
-5000000
0.25
Baja
125000
2500000
1000000
-2500000
Tradicional
-4200000
2
187500
0.75
Alta
Tecnologa
3
500000
212500
-5500000
No ampliar
0
Planta Pequea
-1000000
187500
Tradicional
-4200000
TreePlan Trial, For Evaluation Only\\vboxsrv\conversion_tmp\scratch_3\www.TreePlan.com
For Evaluation Only
0.25
Baja
Tecnologa
3
400000
112500
-5500000
No ampliar
0
For Evaluation Only
1000000
-2500000
0.75
Alta
-2000000
2700000
-2525000
-2000000
0.25
Baja
-4100000
600000
-4100000
0.75
Alta
-3300000
2700000
-3825000
-3300000
0.25
Baja
-5400000
600000
-5400000
0.75
Alta
250000
750000
212500
250000
0.25
Baja
100000
600000
100000
0.75
Alta
-2100000
2700000
-2625000
-2100000
0.25
Baja
For Evaluation Only

-4200000
600000
-4200000
0.75
Alta
-3400000
2700000
-3925000
-3400000
0.25
Baja
-5500000
600000
-5500000
0.75
Alta
150000
750000
112500
150000
0.25
Baja
0
600000
Concursar
No concursar
Prob
Ganar
220000
0
0.5
No Ganar V. Esperado
-54000
83000
0
0
0.5
Maximo VE
83000
Max Pagos
VECP
VEIP
220000
110,000
27,000
Exitoso
No Exitoso
Ganar
0.9
0.1
No Ganar
0.3
0.7
Exitoso
No Exitoso
Ganar
0.45
0.05
No Ganar
0.15
0.35
Exitoso
No Exitoso
Ganar
0.75
0.125
No Ganar
0.25
0.875
VEIM
Eficiencia
7900
29%
Prob marg
0.6
0.4
1
83000
0.5
Ganar
Concursar
-30000
250000
83000
220000
0.5
No Ganar
No hacer estudio
1
0
-24000
-54000
83000
No concursar
0
Concursar
-30000
143500
0.6
Exitoso
1
0
143500
No concursar
0
-8000
Hacer estudio
-8000
82900
Concursar
-30000
-27750
0.4
No Exitoso
2
0
-8000
No concursar
0
-8000
220000
-54000
0.75
Ganar
212000
250000
212000
0.25
No Ganar
-62000
-24000
-62000
-8000
0.125
Ganar
212000
250000
212000
0.875
No Ganar
-62000
-24000
-62000
-8000
ID
Name
Value
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
8
0
13
14
15
16
0 TreePlan
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
Prob
Pred
Kind
NS
S1
S2
S3
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
5
5
1
1
0
0
6
6
7
7
9
9
8
8
13
13
D
E
T
T
T
D
E
D
D
E
T
T
T
E
T
T
T
2
2
0
0
0
2
2
2
2
2
0
0
0
2
0
0
0
5
3
0
0
0
1
7
9
13
11
0
0
0
15
0
0
0
6
4
0
0
0
2
8
10
14
12
0
0
0
16
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
S4
S5
Row
Col
Mark
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
19
4
12
2
7
8
30
23
38
19
27
17
22
34
42
32
37
1
9
9
13
13
5
5
9
9
13
13
17
17
13
13
17
17
TRUE
TRUE
TRUE
TRUE
TRUE
TRUE
TRUE
TRUE
TRUE
TRUE
TRUE
TRUE
TRUE
TRUE
TRUE
TRUE
TRUE
Dda Alta
Dda Regular Dda Baja
VE
Lanzar inmediatamente 200000
50000
-100000
No Lanzar
0
0
0
Prob. A priori
0.2
0.6
0.2
VCIP
VEIP
200000
70000
20,000
Dda Alta
Conveniente
No conveniente
0.3
0.7
Dda Alta
Conveniente
No conveniente
50000

0.6
0.2
0.4
0.8
A Posteriori
Conveniente
No conveniente
VCIF
VEIF

0.06
0.36
0.04
0.14
0.24
0.16
Dda Alta
0.13
0.26
50000
0
50000
0

0.78
0.09
0.44
0.30
0.46
0.54
No Lanzar
0
0
0.2
Dda Alta
200000
Lanzar inmediatamente
0.6
Dda Regular
50000
50000
200000
50000
0.2
Dda Baja
-100000
-100000
2
50000
Lanzar
0
0.46
Conveniente
1
0
46521.7391
No Lanzar
0
Realizar estudio
-10000
40000
Lanzar
0
0.54
No Conveniente
1
0
34444.4444
No Lanzar
0
200000
50000
-100000
0.13043478
Dda Alta
190000
200000
190000
0.7826087
Dda Regular
40000
46521.7391
50000
40000
0.08695652
Dda Baja
-110000
-100000
-110000
-10000
-10000
0.25925926
Dda Alta
190000
200000
0.44444444
190000
Dda Regular
40000
34444.4444
50000
40000
0.2962963
Dda Baja
-110000
-100000
-110000
-10000
-10000
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
8
0
14
15
16
17
18
ID
Name
0 TreePlan
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
Value
Prob
0
Pred
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
2
2
0
6
6
7
7
9
9
9
8
8
14
14
14
Kind
D
T
E
T
T
T
E
D
D
E
T
T
T
T
E
T
T
T
T
NS
3
0
3
0
0
0
2
2
2
3
0
0
0
0
3
0
0
0
0
S1
S2
1
0
3
0
0
0
7
9
14
11
0
0
0
0
16
0
0
0
0
S3
2
0
4
0
0
0
8
10
15
12
0
0
0
0
17
0
0
0
0
S4
6
0
5
0
0
0
0
0
0
13
0
0
0
0
18
0
0
0
0
S5
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Row
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Col
22
2
12
7
12
17
42
32
52
27
37
22
27
32
47
57
42
47
52
1
5
5
9
9
9
5
9
9
13
13
17
17
17
13
13
17
17
17
Mark
TRUE
TRUE
TRUE
TRUE
TRUE
TRUE
TRUE
TRUE
TRUE
TRUE
TRUE
TRUE
TRUE
TRUE
TRUE
TRUE
TRUE
TRUE
TRUE
VEIM
VEIP
Cultivar
No cultivar
Prob a priori
Valor Esperado
Pagos Mximos
VCIP
VEIP
2.403 S/. 2,402.56
Sin plaga
Plagas
310
210
0.6
246
310
270
24
Valor Esperado
150
210
0.4
246
210
210
Reali
0
248.40256
No re
0
Cultivar
0
246
0.3
Templado
1
0
246
No cultivar
210
210
Cultivar
0
203.328
0.36
Subtropical
Realizar estudio
2
0
248.40256
210
No cultivar
210
210
Cultivar
0
291.184
0.34
Fro
1
1
0
291.184
No cultivar
210
0.6
210
Sin plaga
Cultivar
0
310
246
310
0.4
Plagas
No realizar estudio
1
0
150
246
No cultivar
210
210
150
0.6
Sin plaga
310
310
310
0.4
Plagas
150
150
150
210
0.3333
Sin plaga
310
310
310
0.6667
Plagas
150
150
150
210
0.8824
Sin plaga
310
310
310
0.1176
Plagas
150
150
150
210
310
150
210
ID
0
0
0
2
0
0
18
19
20
21
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
Name
TreePlan
Value
Prob
0
Pred
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
1
3
3
6
6
4
4
10
10
5
5
14
14
2
2
18
18
Kind
D
E
D
D
D
D
E
T
T
T
E
T
T
T
E
T
T
T
E
T
T
T
NS
S1
2
3
2
2
2
2
2
0
0
0
2
0
0
0
2
0
0
0
2
0
0
0
1
3
18
6
10
14
8
0
0
0
12
0
0
0
16
0
0
0
20
0
0
0
S2
S3
2
4
19
7
11
15
9
0
0
0
13
0
0
0
17
0
0
0
21
0
0
0
S4
0
5
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
S5
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Row
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Col
38
23
53
8
23
38
4
12
2
7
19
27
17
22
34
42
32
37
49
57
47
52
1
5
5
9
9
9
13
13
17
17
13
13
17
17
13
13
17
17
9
9
13
13
Mark
TRUE
TRUE
TRUE
TRUE
TRUE
TRUE
TRUE
TRUE
TRUE
TRUE
TRUE
TRUE
TRUE
TRUE
TRUE
TRUE
TRUE
TRUE
TRUE
TRUE
TRUE
TRUE
Producir
No Producir
Prob
Valor Esperado
Pagos mximos
VECP
VEIP
VEIM
Eficiencia
Sin problemas Con fallas

1400
-1400
0
0
0.6
0.4
280
1400
840
560
175
31.25%
280
0
3
355
-100
0.6
Sin problemas
Producir
-800
2200
280
1400
0.4
Con fallas
-600
-1400
No Producir
0
Producir
-800
600
0.65
Alentador
1
0
600
No producir
0
-100
Realizar estudio
-100
355
Producir
-800
-716
0.35
Desalentador
2
0
-100
No producir
0
-100
1400
-1400
0.75
Sin problemas
1300
2200
1300
0.25
Con fallas
-1500
-600
-1500
-100
0.28
Sin problemas
1300
2200
1300
0.72
Con fallas
-1500
-600
-1500
-100
0
0
0
0
0
0
7
0
12
13
14
15
ID
Name
0 TreePlan
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
Value
Prob
0
Pred
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
0
5
5
6
6
8
8
7
7
12
12
Kind
D
E
T
T
T
E
D
D
E
T
T
T
E
T
T
T
NS
3
2
0
0
0
2
2
2
2
0
0
0
2
0
0
0
S1
S2
1
3
0
0
0
6
8
12
10
0
0
0
14
0
0
0
S3
2
4
0
0
0
7
9
13
11
0
0
0
15
0
0
0
S4
5
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
S5
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Row
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Col
17
4
12
2
7
30
23
38
19
27
17
22
34
42
32
37
1
5
5
9
9
5
9
9
13
13
17
17
13
13
17
17
Mark
TRUE
TRUE
TRUE
TRUE
TRUE
TRUE
TRUE
TRUE
TRUE
TRUE
TRUE
TRUE
TRUE
TRUE
TRUE
TRUE
Autopista
Avenida
Abierta
25
30
Pagos mnimos
VCIP
Prob a priori
VEIP
Embotellada
45
30
V. Esperado
25
25.75
0.85
2.25
V Esperado
28
30
28
30
0.15
Estado del tiempo
Despejado
Neblina
Lluvioso
Abierta
0.8
0.2
0
Embotellada
0.1
0.3
0.6
Abierta
0.68
0.17
0
Embotellada
0.015
0.045
0.09
Prob conjunta
Despejado
Neblina
Lluvioso
Prob Total
0.695
0.215
0.090
3
26.65
Despejado
Neblina
Lluvioso
VEIM
Eficiencia
Abierta
0.9784
0.7907
0.0000
Embotellada
0.0216
0.2093
1.0000
1.35
60%
Estado del Tiempo

0
0.85
Abierta
Autopista
0
25
28
25
0.15
Embotellada
45
45
Avenida
30
30
Autopista
0
25.4316547
0.695
Despejado
1
0
25.4316547
Avenida
30
30
Autopista
0
29.1860465
0.215
Neblina
Estado del Tiempo
1
0
26.65
29.1860465
Avenida
30
30
Autopista
0
45
0.090
Lluvioso
2
0
30
Avenida
30
30
25
45
30
0.9784
Abierta
25
25
25
0.0216
Embotellada
45
45
45
30
0.7907
Abierta
25
25
25
0.2093
Embotellada
45
45
45
30
0.0000
Abierta
25
25
25
1.0000
Embotellada
45
45
45
30
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
8
0
0
0
0
0
17
18
19
20
ID
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
8
0
0
0
0
0
17
18
19
20
Name
0 TreePlan
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
Value
Prob
0
Pred
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
0
2
0
0
5
5
5
6
6
9
9
7
7
13
13
8
8
17
17
Kind
D
T
E
T
T
E
D
D
D
E
T
T
T
E
T
T
T
E
T
T
T
NS
S1
3
0
2
0
0
3
2
2
2
2
0
0
0
2
0
0
0
2
0
0
0
S2
2
0
1
0
0
6
9
13
17
11
0
0
0
15
0
0
0
19
0
0
0
S3
4
0
3
0
0
7
10
14
18
12
0
0
0
16
0
0
0
20
0
0
0
S4
5
0
0
0
0
8
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
S5
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Row
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
21
2
4
7
12
38
23
38
53
19
27
17
22
34
42
32
37
49
57
47
52
Col
1
9
5
9
5
5
9
9
9
13
13
17
17
13
13
17
17
13
13
17
17
Mark
TRUE
TRUE
TRUE
TRUE
TRUE
TRUE
TRUE
TRUE
TRUE
TRUE
TRUE
TRUE
TRUE
TRUE
TRUE
TRUE
TRUE
TRUE
TRUE
TRUE
TRUE

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2.403 S/. 2,402.56

Sin problemas Con fallas

Estado del tiempo

Estado del Tiempo

Estado del Tiempo

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