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=
=
where C
t
= basin coefficient, L
m
= length of the main stream from the outlet to the divide,
L
c
= length along the main stream from the outlet to a point nearest the watershed
centroid, Q
p
= peak of UH, A = watershed drainage area, C
p
= UH peaking coefficient,
T = duration of UH and t
p
= basin lag.
Channel routing model
The flood routing model applied in this study is the Muskingum model. This method was
chosen because it does not require knowledge of the river sections and the Manning
roughness coefficient and because the two parameters (K, X) it contains can be
determined either by measured flood hydrographs or even through calibration.
The parameter X is called storage coefficient and is a dimensionless parameter that
expresses the attenuation of the flood wave. The parameter K represents the travel time
of the flood wave through the reach.
Model calibration
In this study we applied both calibration techniques: trial and error and automated by
applying an optimization algorithm offered in HEC-HMS. In both cases, the calibration of
the model was based on the measured flows at Kioteki station, using two out of the four
floods events that simulated, with peaks on 12/2/99 and 27/12/96.
The trial and error technique was applied to the parameters C
p
and C
t
of Snyders unit
hydrograph, the parameters K and X of Muskingum routing model and the SCS CN
losses model. The choice of this technique was to obtain the best parameter values for
the model, which would be constant for each sub-basin and storm event. For the rest of
the models parameters, such as the flow at the inflection point of the hydrograph and the
exponential recession constant in the baseflow model and initial runoff losses in the SCS
CN model, applied the automatic calibration for each hydrograph separately, using the
Univariate Gradient optimization algorithm and as an objective function the Sum of
Squared Differences.
The equations of performance indices are shown in Table 1, where q
s
is the estimated
flow, q
o
is the observed flow for the same time, q
m
is the mean observed flow, V
S
is the
total estimated volume and V
O
is the total observed volume.
For indices PE, b and RMSE the perfect calibration occurs when they are equal to zero,
while for the index R
2
occurs when it is equal to unity. The RMSE and R
2
indices are a
measure of error of the volume and peak flow between the observed and estimated
hydrographs while the PE index is a measure of error only to peak flows and the index b
only to the total volume.
Table 1. Models calibration performance indices
Performance index Equation
Root Mean Square Error
( )
=
2 1
o S
q q
N
RMSE
Nash Sutcliffe coefficient
( )
( )
=
2
2
2
1
m o
o S
q q
q q
R
Total volume absolute error
100
=
O
O S
V
V V
b
Peak flow absolute error
100
) (
) ( ) (
=
peak q
peak q peak q
PE
o
o S
5. SIMULATION RESULTS
Figures 4a to 4d present the estimated flood hydrographs at Kioteki station for the four
simulated storm events, after the calibration of the model for both scenarios (lumped and
semi-distributed). Table 2 presents the results of the statistical performance indices as
derived from the application of HEC-HMS under lumped and semi-distributed form for the
four floods.
Table 2. Values of the performance indices after calibration of HEC-HMS under lumped
and semi-distributed form
PERFORM.
INDICES
FLOOD WITH PEAK ON
12/2/99
FLOOD WITH PEAK ON
27/12/96
Semi-distributed Lumped Semi-distributed Lumped
R
2
0.907 0.855 0.909 0.905
RMSE 0.515 0.644 0.392 0.401
PE 12.585 7.294 8.376 7.777
b 1.208 2.817 0.586 1.029
PERFORM.
INDICES
FLOOD WITH PEAK ON
22/12/99
FLOOD WITH PEAK ON
30/3/95
Semi-distributed Lumped Semi-distributed Lumped
R
2
0.788 0.618 0.893 0.893
RMSE 0.918 1.234 0.456 0.456
PE 9.468 6.816 3.664 2.039
b 0.195 0.991 0.179 0.304
a) b)
c) d)
Fig. 4 Results after calibration of HEC-HMS under lumped and semi-distributed form for flood
events with peak flows on a) 30/3/95 b) 22/12/99 c) 27/12/96 and d) 12/2/99
6. CONCLUSIONS
The conclusions from the conducted simulations, referred to the application and
comparison of a lumped and semi-distributed form of the model, are presented below:
A model performance improvement based on the volume absolute error is observed
when using the semi-distributed version of the HEC-HMS in comparison to its lumped
counterpart. Moreover, the same conclusion applies prior to calibration of the model.
The best simulation of the total volume with the semi-distributed version of HEC-HMS,
also leads to the conclusion that the modules for calculating the volume of direct
runoff and base flow volume, are best applicable in small basins.
Referring to the floods on 27/12/96 and 30/3/95, it appears that differences in values
of performance indices between lumped and semi-distributed form of HEC-HMS is
very small. This is partially because the flood hydrographs on 27/12/96 and 30/3/95
show only one peak and partly because of the fact that rainfall data for that flood
events were from three out of four stations in the area. This observation leads to the
conclusion that the application of the semi-distributed form is preferred against the
lumped, only if it is to simulate complex hydrographs and detailed data of spatial
distribution of rainfall is available.
The results of the simulations indicate for both scenarios that while for the three out
of four indices, their value was improved after calibration, for the index absolute error
in peak PE, the value became worse or improved a little. These results may be due
to merits in the calibration procedure. The Univariate Gradient algorithm finds a local
minimum of the objective function, while it depends on the initial values of the
parameters. Moreover the objective function of sum of squared differences
emphasises on improving the indices R
2
and RMSE. We therefore suggest using a
multiobjective optimisation algorithm able to identify the global minimum for a better
calibration and performance of the model.
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