V|etnam's Last Sea Strategy and

Ch|na-V|etnam ke|at|ons
Carlyle Thayer








Paper delivered to the
2
nd
International Conference on Chinas Maritime Strategy
co-sponsored by the Institute of Global and Public Affairs
and the Shanghai Maritime Strategy Research Center
The University of Macau
September 19-20, 2014


Xi Jinping, General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party, and Le Hong Anh,
Special Envoy of the Secretary General of the Vietnam Communist Party
2
V|etnam's Last Sea Strategy and Ch|na-V|etnam ke|at|ons
Car|y|e A. 1hayer
*


Introduct|on
1hls paper dlscusses vleLnam's currenL LasL Sea (SouLh Chlna Sea) sLraLegy ln lLs
broad hlsLorlcal, forelgn pollcy and defence conLexL. 1hls paper also conslders Lhe
lmpllcaLlons of Lhls sLraLegy for vleLnam's bllaLeral relaLlons wlLh Chlna. 1he paper ls
dlvlded lnLo flve ma[or parLs. arL 1 seLs ouL Lhe changlng forelgn pollcy conLexL of
currenL vleLnamese sLraLegy. 1hls secLlon argues LhaL slnce Lhe mld-1980s vleLnam
has always placed prlorlLy on lLs relaLlons wlLh Chlna even wlLh Lhe emergence of
LerrlLorlal dlspuLes ln Lhe LasL Sea. Cver Llme Lhe soclallsL ldeologlcal componenL of
vleLnam's forelgn pollcy was dlluLed by conslderaLlons of naLlonal lnLeresL. vleLnam
adopLed a pollcy of cooperaLlng wlLh soclallsL and non-soclallsL counLrles when Lhelr
lnLeresLs colnclded and sLruggllng agalnsL soclallsL and non-soclallsL counLrles when
Lhese counLrles adopLed pollcles lnlmlcal Lo vleLnam's naLlonal lnLeresLs.
arL 2 seL ouL Lhe hlsLorlcal conLexL for vleLnam's clalms Lo soverelgnLy over Lhe
aracel and SpraLly lslands. arL 3 Lraces Lhe evoluLlon of vleLnamese force
modernlzaLlon and defence sLraLegy from Lhe 1990s Lo Lhe presenL. lL noLes LhaL
LerrlLorlal confllcLs wlLh Chlna ln Lhe LasL Sea have been one of Lhe maln - buL noL
excluslve - drlvers for force modernlzaLlon and defence sLraLegy. arL 4 dlscusses
vleLnam's MarlLlme SLraLegy Lo 2020 adopLed ln 2007. lL hlghllghLs Lhe lnLegraLlon of
economlc and defence ob[ecLlves and vleLnam's developmenL of a robusL counLer-
lnLervenLlon sLraLegy. arL 3 conslders Lhe lmpllcaLlons of vleLnam's LasL Sea
sLraLegy on bllaLeral relaLlons wlLh Chlna afLer Lhe ollrlg crlsls of May-!uly 2014. 1he
paper argues LhaL Lhls crlsls led Lo an eroslon of sLraLeglc LrusL by vleLnamese
leaders and publlc Lowards Chlna. neverLheless, vleLnam wlll conLlnue Lo pursue lLs
long-sLandlng pollcy of mulLllaLerallzaLlon and dlverslflcaLlon" and cooperaLlon
and sLruggle" ln lLs exLernal relaLlons wlLh all Lhe ma[or powers lncludlng Chlna.
art 1 Iore|gn o||cy Context
vleLnam's forelgn pollcy has undergone marked changes over Lhe lasL Lhree decades.
1hree semlnal resoluLlons lssued by Lhe ollLlcal 8ureau (ollLburo) of Lhe vleLnam
CommunlsL arLy (vC) and an lmporLanL resoluLlon of Lhe vC CenLral CommlLLee
charL Lhls evoluLlon.
1

ollLburo 8esoluLlon no. 32 was adopLed ln !uly 1986 whlle vleLnam was sLlll
engaged ln Cambodla and relaLlons wlLh Chlna were hosLlle. 1he resoluLlon declared,

*
LmerlLus rofessor, 1he unlverslLy of new SouLh Wales aL Lhe AusLrallan uefence lorce Academy,
Canberra. L-mall: c.Lhayer[adfa.edu.au. 8evlsed SepLember 23, 2014.
1
1hls secLlon draws on Carlyle A. 1hayer, upholdlng SLaLe SoverelgnLy 1hrough Clobal lnLegraLlon:
1he 8emaklng of vleLnamese naLlonal SecurlLy ollcy," aper Lo conference vleL nam, LasL Asla and
8eyond, ClLy unlverslLy of Pong kong, Pong kong, uecember 11-12, 2008. See: hLLp://www.vleL-
sLudles.lnfo/klnhLe/1hayer_8emaklng_SecurlLy_ollcy.pdf. All four resoluLlons sLlll remaln
confldenLlal.
3
lL ls necessary Lo move proacLlvely Lo a new sLage of developmenL, and peaceful
coexlsLence wlLh Chlna, ASLAn (AssoclaLlon of SouLheasL Aslan naLlons) and Lhe
unlLed SLaLes, and bulld SouLheasL Asla lnLo a reglon of peace, sLablllLy and
cooperaLlon." llve monLhs laLer, Lhe ollLlcal 8eporL dellvered Lo Lhe SlxLh naLlonal
arLy Congress gave prlorlLy Lo expandlng and helghLenlng Lhe effecLlveness of
exLernal economlc relaLlons.
ollLburo 8esoluLlon no. 2 was adopLed ln 1987. lL mandaLed Lhe wlLhdrawal of all
vleLnamese forces from Cambodla and Laos and Lhe masslve demoblllzaLlon of
vleLnam's sLandlng army. 1he vleLnam eople's Army wlLhdrew from Cambodla ln
SepLember 1989, Lhus meeLlng one of Chlna's maln pre-condlLlons for Lhe
normallzaLlon of relaLlons. 8oLh 8esoluLlons no. 32 and no. 2 lndlcaLe LhaL vleLnam
was Lhlnklng sLraLeglcally beyond Lhe Cambodlan confllcL Lo a perlod of lmproved
relaLlons wlLh Chlna.
ollLburo 8esoluLlon no. 13 was adopLed ln May 1988, Lwo monLhs afLer a naval
clash wlLh Chlna ln Lhe LasL Sea (see below). lL ls perhaps Lhe mosL slgnlflcanL forelgn
pollcy resoluLlon for modern vleLnam. 1hls resoluLlon called for a mulLldlrecLlonal
forelgn pollcy," gave prlorlLy Lo economlc developmenL, and used Lhe Lerm naLlonal
lnLeresL (lol lcb Joo toc) for Lhe flrsL Llme. 8esoluLlon no. 13 clearly slgnaled Lhe end
of Lhe Lwo-worlds vlew and vleLnam's embrace of an lnLerdependenL world.
vleLnam now shlfLed lLs forelgn pollcy from one of confronLaLlon Lo one of
accommodaLlon wlLh former foes.
2

ln !une 1991, vleLnam consolldaLed lLs mulLldlrecLlonal forelgn pollcy aL Lhe SevenLh
naLlonal arLy Congress. lorelgn pollcy documenLs called for vleLnam Lo dlverslfy
and mulLllaLerallze economlc relaLlons wlLh all counLrles and economlc organlzaLlons
. . . regardless of dlfferenL soclo-pollLlcal sysLems." WlLhln four years, vleLnam had
achleved noLable success ln meeLlng lLs new ob[ecLlves. ln november 1991, vleLnam
and Chlna ended Lhelr esLrangemenL, and ln 1993, vleLnam normallzed dlplomaLlc
relaLlons wlLh Lhe unlLed SLaLes, secured Lhe resumpLlon of !apanese Cverseas
uevelopmenL AsslsLance, slgned a cooperaLlon agreemenL wlLh Lhe Luropean unlon,
and became ASLAn's sevenLh member.
ln March 1999, a summlL meeLlng beLween leaders of Lhe Chlnese CommunlsL arLy
(CC) and Lhe vC adopLed a slxLeen-characLer framework calllng for long-Lerm,
sLable, fuLure-orlenLed, good-nelghborly and all-round cooperaLlve relaLlons." A [olnL
sLaLemenL lssued Lhe followlng year esLabllshed Lhe framework for long-Lerm sLaLe-
Lo-sLaLe relaLlons. ln 1999, Chlna and vleLnam reached an agreemenL demarcaLlng
Lhelr land border and a year laLer dellmlLed Lhelr marlLlme boundary ln Lhe Culf of
1onkln, where a [olnL flshery area was esLabllshed.
vleLnam's open-door pollcy of dlverslfylng and mulLllaLerallzlng lLs economlc
relaLlons was reafflrmed aL all subsequenL naLlonal parLy congresses. vleLnam's
nlnLh arLy Congress ln 2001, for example, declared LhaL, vleLnam wanLs Lo be a

2
Carlyle A. 1hayer, vleLnamese lorelgn ollcy: MulLllaLerallsm and Lhe 1hreaL of eaceful LvoluLlon,"
ln Carlyle A. 1hayer and 8amses Amer, eds., vletoomese lotelqo lollcy lo 1toosltloo (Slngapore:
lnsLlLuLe of SouLheasL Aslan SLudles, 1999), 1-24.

4
frlend and a rellable parLner Lo all naLlons." vleLnam announced LhaL lL would glve
prlorlLy Lo developlng relaLlons wlLh soclallsL, nelghborlng and LradlLlonal frlendly
sLaLes," referrlng Lo Chlna, Laos and Cambodla, and 8ussla respecLlvely.
Cver Lhe nexL decade vleLnam developed closer relaLlons wlLh Lhe permanenL
members of Lhe u.n. SecurlLy Councll and Lhe ma[or powers ln norLheasL Asla,
SouLheasL Asla, SouLh Asla and Lurope. lL concluded sLraLeglc parLnershlp
agreemenLs wlLh Lhe 8usslan lederaLlon, !apan, lndla, Chlna, SouLh korea, Spaln, Lhe
unlLed klngdom and Cermany. Lach of Lhese sLraLeglc parLnershlps ls dlfferenL, buL
Lhey all reflecL Lhe emphasls vleLnam has placed on developlng comprehenslve
relaLlons wlLh key sLaLes.
3

ln 2006, vleLnam and Chlna seL up a !olnL SLeerlng CommlLLee on 8llaLeral
CooperaLlon aL Lhe depuLy prlme mlnlsLerlal level Lo coordlnaLe all aspecLs of Lhelr
bllaLeral relaLlons. 8llaLeral relaLlons were offlclally upgraded Lo a sLraLeglc
parLnershlp followlng a !une 2008 summlL of parLy leaders ln 8el[lng. A year laLer Lhe
sLraLeglc parLnershlp was upgraded Lo a comprehenslve sLraLeglc cooperaLlve
parLnershlp desplLe rlslng Lenslons ln Lhe LasL Sea. under Lhls framework, Chlna and
vleLnam developed a dense neLwork of parLy, sLaLe, defense and mulLllaLeral
mechanlsms Lo manage Lhelr bllaLeral relaLlons. 1hese mechanlsms have conLlnued
Lo funcLlon effecLlvely desplLe currenL LerrlLorlal dlspuLes ln Lhe LasL Sea.
1he vleLnam-Chlna relaLlonshlp ls also characLerlzed by a convergence of lnLeresLs
on a varleLy of lssues, boLh domesLlc and reglonal, beyond formal bllaLeral
mechanlsms. AL Lhe domesLlc level, boLh seek Lo reform Lhelr soclallsL economles
wlLhouL desLablllzlng one-parLy rule. AL Lhe reglonal level, boLh seek Lo beneflL from
reglonal lnLegraLlon, lncludlng Lhe Chlna-ASLAn lree 1rade Area and Lhe CreaLer
Mekong Sub-8eglon. More generally, boLh share an lnLeresL ln malnLalnlng a sLable
reglonal and global envlronmenL.
ln 2003, Lhe vC CenLral CommlLLee adopLed 8esoluLlon no. 8 LhaL seL ouL Lhe pollcy
of cooperaLlon (Jol toc - llLerally ob[ecL of cooperaLlon) and sLruggle (Jol Luong -
ob[ecL of sLruggle) wlLh respecL Lo vleLnam's forelgn relaLlons, parLlcularly wlLh Lhe
ma[or powers.
4
up unLll 8esoluLlon no. 8 Chlna was classlfled as a frlendly (read
soclallsL) counLry and Lhe unlLed SLaLes was vlewed as an opponenL of vleLnam.
8esoluLlon no. 8 noLed LhaL Lhere were ofLen lnsLances of frlcLlon and dlsagreemenL
wlLh frlendly counLrles and areas of cooperaLlon and convergenL lnLeresLs wlLh
opposlng counLrles. 8esoluLlon no. 8 sancLloned cooperaLlon wlLh boLh frlendly and
opposlng counLrles and sLruggllng agalnsL any counLry LhaL harmed vleLnam's
naLlonal lnLeresLs.
ln addlLlon Lo bllaLeral sLraLeglc parLnershlps, vleLnam has also placed emphasls on
engaglng wlLh reglonal and global mulLllaLeral lnsLlLuLlons. Slnce 1993, vleLnam has

3
lor deLalls see: Carlyle A. 1hayer, vleLnam Cn Lhe 8oad Lo Clobal lnLegraLlon: lorglng SLraLeglc
arLnershlps 1hrough lnLernaLlonal SecurlLy CooperaLlon," ln vletoom oo tbe kooJ to loteqtotloo ooJ
5ostolooble uevelopmeot, 1he lourLh lnLernaLlonal Conference on vleLnamese SLudles. Panol:
vleLnam Academy of Soclal Sclences and vleLnam naLlonal unlverslLy, 2012, 206-214. 1hls resoluLlon
also remalns confldenLlal.
4
Carlyle A. 1hayer, 1he 1yranny of Ceography: vleLnamese SLraLegles Lo ConsLraln Chlna ln Lhe SouLh
Chlna Sea," cootempototy 5ootbeost Aslo, 33(3), 2011, 348-369.
5
emerged as a consLrucLlve member of ASLAn and Lhe ASLAn-cenLrlc reglonal
securlLy archlLecLure, lncludlng Lhe ASLAn 8eglonal lorum, Lhe ASLAn uefense
MlnlsLers MeeLlng lus process, Lhe Lxpanded ASLAn MarlLlme lorum and Lhe LasL
Asla SummlL.
vleLnam also [olned Lhe Asla aclflc Lconomlc CooperaLlon forum ln 1998 and
became a member of Lhe World 1rade CrganlzaLlon ln 2007. ln 2008, ln perhaps lLs
mosL successful forelgn pollcy venLure, vleLnam was Lhe unanlmous cholce of Lhe
Asla bloc for nonpermanenL membershlp on Lhe u.n. SecurlLy Councll, recelvlng
overwhelmlng endorsemenL by Lhe Ceneral Assembly and servlng on Lhe SecurlLy
Councll from 2008 Lo 2009.
3

ln summary, vleLnam's LasL Sea SLraLegy ls seL wlLhln Lhe broader forelgn pollcy
sLraLegy of mulLllaLerallzlng and dlverslfylng lLs exLernal relaLlons, promoLlng
economlc developmenL and lnLegraLlon wlLh Lhe global economy, esLabllshlng
comprehenslve sLraLeglc relaLlons wlLh ma[or powers (wlLh a speclal emphasls on
relaLlons wlLh Chlna), and cooperaLlng and sLruggllng wlLh Lhe ma[or powers on Lhe
basls of naLlonal lnLeresLs.
n|stor|ca| Legacy
lte-coloolol eto. vleLnam's LasL Sea SLraLegy has a long hlsLorlcal legacy. ln Lhe flrsL
half of Lhe 17
Lh
CenLury Lhe nguyen Lords formed Lhe Poang Sa 8rlgade (uol noooq
5o, someLlmes LranslaLed as Poang Sa lloLllla) Lo sall Lo Lhe presenL day aracel
lslands ln Lhe Lhlrd monLh of every year. 1he Poang Sa 8rlgade spenL up Lo flve
monLhs carrylng ouL mapplng, surveys, flshlng, recoverlng Lhe cargo from merchanL
shlps LhaL had run aground, planL Lrees and erecL land markers.
6
1he Poang Sa
8rlgade comprlsed beLween flve and elghLeen boaLs wlLh a crew of sevenLy men
recrulLed from An vlnh vlllage, 8lnh Son dlsLrlcL, Cuang ngal provlnce.
uurlng Lhe flrsL half of Lhe 18
Lh
CenLury Lhe nguyen Lords also organlzed Lhe norLh
Sea 8rlgade (uol 8oc nol) Lo carry ouL Lhe same mlsslon.
7
1he norLh Sea 8rlgade was
under Lhe command of Lhe Poang Sa 8rlgade. 1he sallors of Lhe norLh Sea 8rlgade
Lravelled ln small flshlng boaLs.
1he Lmperors of Lhe nguyen uynasLy, founded ln 1802, conLlnued Lo malnLaln Lhe
Poang Sa 8rlgade. 1he Poang Sa 8rlgade was dlspaLched ln Lhe early years Lmperor
Cla Long's relgn (1802-1820) buL was suspended laLer. ln 1816, Lmperor Cla Long
formally Look possesslon of Lhe aracels. Pls successor, Lmperor Mlnh Mang (1820-
1841), conducLed navlgaLlonal surveys, planLed sLone sLele, and consLrucLed a
Lemple Lhe aracels ln 1833.

5
Le Luong Mlnh, who served as vleLnam's ambassador Lo Lhe u.n. aL LhaL Llme, became SecreLary-
Ceneral of ASLAn ln !anuary 2013 for a flve-year Lerm.
6
8o ngoal Clao (MlnlsLry of lorelgn Affalrs) and uy 8an 8len Clol Cuoc Cla (naLlonal 8oundary
Commlsslon), cbo Ooyeo coo vlet Nom uol vol nol Oooo uoo noooq 5o vo 1toooq 5o [vleLnam's
SoverelgnLy over Lhe 1wo Archlpelagoes Poang Sa and 1ruong Sa] Panol: nha xuaL 8an 1rl 1huc,
2013.
7
vleLnam was dlvlded beLween Lhe 1rlnh Lords ln Lhe norLh and Lhe nguyen Lords ln Lhe SouLh from
1338-1783.
6
coloolol to. 1he klngdom of An nam became a lrench proLecLoraLe durlng Lhe
colonlal era. 1he klngdom of An nam was renamed Lhe SLaLe of vleLnam ln 1949 and
became a member of Lhe lrench unlon.
under Lhe Lerms of a LreaLy slgned beLween lrance Lhe klngdom of An nam ln 1884
vleLnam became a proLecLoraLe. lrance assumed responslblllLy for An nam's
exLernal affalrs.
8
lrance respecLed and defended Lhe klngdom's LerrlLorlal lnLegrlLy
and clalms Lo soverelgnLy over Lhe aracels and SpraLlys.
9
ln 1923 and 1927, lrance
conducLed surveys and naval paLrols ln Lhe aracel lslands. ln 1931 and 1932, lrance
proLesLed Lo Lhe CovernmenL of Chlna on behalf of Lhe klngdom of An nam when
auLhorlLles ln Cuangdong provlnce called for blds Lo explolL guano ln Lhe Poang Sa
archlpelago.
uurlng Lhe 1920s and 1930s lrench navy warshlps and CusLoms vessels made
frequenL vlslLs Lo Lhe aracels. lrench forces were sLaLloned ln Lhe SpraLly lslands
from 1930-33. 1he lrench lnsLlLuLe of Cceanography ln nha 1rang carrled ouL
sclenLlflc surveys ln Lhls perlod as well. ln 1933 lrance lncorporaLed Lhe SpraLly
lslands lnLo 8a 8la provlnce for admlnlsLraLlve purposes. ln 1938 Lhe aracels lslands
were declared an admlnlsLraLlve unlL of 1hua 1hlen provlnce. lrance consLrucLed a
llghLhouse, a meLeorologlcal sLaLlon and a radlo sLaLlon on aLLle lsland ln Lhe
CrescenL group as well as slmllar faclllLles ln Lhe SpraLlys.
lrench auLhorlLy was ecllpsed brlefly durlng Lhe Second World War when !apan
occupled lrench lndochlna lncludlng Lhe aracel and SpraLly lslands.
10
ln 1947,
lrench auLhorlLy was resLored ln lndochlna and lrench armed forces reasserLed
conLrol of Lhe aracel and SpraLly archlpelagoes. lrance rebullL Lhe radlo and
meLeorologlcal sLaLlons ln Lhe aracels. ln 1930 lrance offlclally handed over
admlnlsLraLlon of Lhe aracels Lo Lhe SLaLe of vleLnam under Lmperor 8ao ual.
ln 1930, Lhe eople's 8epubllc of Chlna (8C) occupled Lhe AmphlLrlLe group ln Lhe
easLern aracels followlng Lhe wlLhdrawal of Lhe 8epubllc of Chlna (naLlonallsL
Chlna).
ln 1931, Lhe head of Lhe SLaLe of vleLnam's delegaLlon Lo Lhe San lranclsco eace
Conference sLaLed, we afflrm our rlghL Lo Lhe SpraLly and aracel lslands, whlch
have always belonged Lo vleLnam." no ob[ecLlons were recorded.
1wo vletooms, 1954-76. 8eLween 1946 and 1934 vleLnamese communlsL forces
foughL a war for lndependence agalnsL lrance. A cease-flre and pollLlcal seLLlemenL
were reached aL Lhe Ceneva Conference held from May Lo !uly 1934.
1he llnal ueclaraLlon of Lhe Ceneva Conference provlslonally dlvlded vleLnam lnLo
Lwo zones roughly along Lhe sevenLeenLh parallel. 1he aracel lslands lay below Lhls
demarcaLlon llne and Lherefore came under Lhe conLrol of Lhe SLaLe of vleLnam

8
lL has been argued LhaL Lhe Clng uynasLy recognlzed Lhe soverelgnLy of Lhe lrench roLecLoraLe of
An nam ln a LreaLy convenLlon slgned ln 1887 and a supplemenL Lo Lhls convenLlon slgned ln 1893.
9
lor an overvlew of Lhe lrench perlod see: MlnlsLry of lorelgn Affalrs and naLlonal 8oundary
Commlsslon, vlet Noms 5ovetelqoty Ovet noooq 5o ooJ 1toooq 5o Atcblpeloqoes (Panol: naLlonal
ollLlcal ubllshlng Pouse, 2012), 30-38.
10
1he lrench vlchy CovernmenL collaboraLed wlLh !apan unLll March 1943.
7
(renamed 8epubllc of vleLnam or 8vn ln CcLober 1933). ln 1936 Lhe 8vn Lransferred
Lhe SpraLly lslands Lo huoc 1uy provlnce, and ln 1961 Lransferred admlnlsLraLlve
responslblllLy for Lhe aracels from 1hua 1hlen Lo Cuang nam provlnce.
ln 1936, Lhe 8vn replaced lrench forces on lsleLs ln Lhe aracels and malnLalned a
conLlnuous presence ln Lhe CrescenL group unLll !anuary 1974. ln 1936, Lhe 8vn's
ueparLmenL of Mlnlng, 1echnology and Small lndusLrles conducLed a survey of four
lslands ln Lhe CrescenL group. ln 1936, Lhe 8vn also proLesLed Lhe 8C's occupaLlon
of Lhe AmphlLrlLe group.
ln 1939, Lhe 8vn deLalned Chlnese flshermen who landed on four lslands ln Lhe
aracel archlpelago. lrom Lhen and LhroughouL Lhe 1960s 8vn auLhorlLles
conLlnually chased away Chlnese flshermen operaLlng ln waLers around Lhe CrescenL
group. 8y 1966, Lhe 8vn presence on aLLle lsland had been reduced Lo a slngle
garrlson and a weaLher sLaLlon. AfLer Lhe 1973 arls AgreemenLs Lhe 8vn presence
was reduced Lo a slngle plaLoon of soldlers.
1hls hlsLorlcal legacy ls Lhe basls of vleLnam's clalm Lo soverelgnLy over Lhe aracels
and SpraLlys and has helped Lo shape lLs conLemporary marlLlme sLraLegy
vleLnamese leaders asserL LhaL Lhey have effecLlvely admlnlsLered and occupled Lhe
lslands and feaLures ln Lhe aracel and SpraLly lslands slnce Lhe 17
Lh
CenLury. 1he
klngdom of An nam and lLs successors, Lhe SLaLe of vleLnam (1949-33) and Lhe
8epubllc of vleLnam (1933-73), carrled ouL mapplng and oLher surveys, explolLed Lhe
marlne resources, provlded meLeorologlcal servlces, provlded safeLy of navlgaLlon,
and garrlsoned Lhese lslands and feaLures. 1hese acLlvlLles are all evldence for
conLlnuous effecLlve occupaLlon and admlnlsLraLlon.
key 1otoloq lolots. lour key Lurnlng polnLs have shaped vleLnam's percepLlon of Lhe
sLraLeglc lmporLance of Lhe aracel and SpraLly lslands Lo vleLnam's naLlonal
securlLy.
1he flrsL Lurnlng polnL was Chlna's premedlLaLed armed aLLack and selzure of 8vn-
occupled urummond, uuncan and 8oberL lslands ln Lhe wesLern aracels ln !anuary
1974. Chlna's selzure of Lhese lslands came a year afLer Lhe AgreemenL on Lndlng
Lhe War and 8esLorlng Lhe eace ln vleLnam and Lhe wlLhdrawal of all u.S. armed
forces from SouLh vleLnam. Chlna's acLlons spurred communlsL vleLnam Lo occupy
lsleLs ln Lhe LasL Sea prlor Lo Lhe fall of Salgon on Aprll 30, 1973.
1he 8vn lssued publlc denunclaLlons of Chlna's acLlons and unsuccessfully Lrled Lo
ralse Lhe maLLer aL Lhe unlLed naLlons.
11
Chlna's acLlons were also condemned by
Lhe rovlslonal 8evoluLlonary CovernmenL of Lhe 8epubllc of SouLh vleLnam (8C) ln
sLaLemenLs lssued on !anuary 16 and lebruary 14, 1974. 1he 8C was noL only a
slgnaLory Lo Lhe 1973 arls eace AgreemenLs, buL prlor Lo Lhe formal reunlflcaLlon
of vleLnam ln 1976 was an appllcanL (along wlLh Lhe uemocraLlc 8epubllc of
vleLnam) for membershlp ln Lhe unlLed naLlons. ln !uly 1976 Lhe u8v and Lhe 8C
formally merged Lo form Lhe SoclallsL 8epubllc of vleLnam (S8v). 1he S8v, as Lhe

11
1be Clol leo Ao 1tooq cooq \om looq noooq 5o coo vNcn [1he World Condemns CommunlsL
Chlnese Aggresslon ln Lhe arcels lslands of Lhe 8epubllc of vleLnam] publlshed by Lhe Armed lorces
of Lhe 8epubllc of vleLnam, 1974. lndochlna Archlve (uouglas lke CollecLlon), 1he unlverslLy of
Callfornla aL 8erkeley. hLLp://paracels74./Lrlpod.com/hoangsahalchlen.hLm.
8
successor sLaLe, assumed Lhe pollcy poslLlons of Lhe 8C on Lhe LasL Sea and lssued
WhlLe apers ln 1979, 1981 and 1988 clalmlng vleLnamese soverelgnLy over Lhe
lslands ln Lhe LasL Sea.
As noLed above, Chlna's selzure of Lhe wesLern aracels ln !anuary 1974 led
communlsL vleLnamese naval forces Lo Lake possesslon of SpraLly lsland (1ruong Sa),
Sand Cay, nam ?lL, SouLhwesL Cay, Sln Cowe and Amboyna Cay ln 1973 before Lhe
fall of Salgon.
1he second Lurnlng polnL was Lhe clash beLween Chlnese and vleLnamese naval
forces aL !ohnson SouLh 8eef on March 14, 1988 (also menLloned above). 1hls clash
was preceded by several monLhs of harassmenL by Chlnese naval forces ln Lhe
SpraLly lslands from laLe 1987. ln March, vleLnam dlspaLched soldlers Lo occupy
!ohnson SouLh, Lansdowne, and Colllns 8eefs. 1he March 14
Lh
clash was preclplLaLed
when armed Chlnese forces confronLed vleLnamese forces on !ohnson SouLh 8eef.
1wo vleLnamese armed LransporL vessels were sunk and an esLlmaLed slxLy-four
servlce personnel were kllled.
1he Lhlrd Lurnlng polnL occurred ln 1992 as a resulL of Lwo lnLer-relaLed
developmenLs. llrsL, on lebruary 23, Lhe SLandlng CommlLLee of Chlna's naLlonal
eople's Congress adopLed Lhe Law of Lhe eople's 8epubllc of Chlna on Lhe
1errlLorlal Sea and Lhe ConLlguous Zone LhaL covered lsland feaLures ln Lhe LasL Sea.
Second, ln May, Chlna slgned a conLracL wlLh Lhe CresLone Lnergy CorporaLlon of Lhe
unlLed SLaLes Lo explore an area known as Wen'an 8el 21 (WA8 21) comprlslng
23,133 sq. km.
1hese developmenLs led Lo a rlse ln Lenslons and number of lncldenLs beLween 1992-
96. lor example, vleLnam awarded a conLracL Lo norway's nopec ln May 1992 LhaL
overlapped wlLh parL of Lhe area lncluded ln WA8 21. ln May 1993, Chlna dlspaLched
a selsmlc vessel Lo WA8 21 ln an area LhaL vleLnam had leased Lo 8 and norway's
SLaLoll. ln CcLober LhaL year vleLnam leL ouL for blddlng nlne blocks near CresLone's
concesslon.
uurlng May-!une 1994 a serles of lncldenLs Look place ln Lhe waLers around
vanguard 8ank (1u Chlnh 8eef) when CresLone and eLrovleLnam boLh deployed
selsmlc survey shlps Lo waLers where Lhelr clalms overlapped. 8oLh survey shlps
were sub[ecL Lo harassmenL by naval forces from Lhe oLher slde. AL Lhe same Llme,
on May 19, eLrovleLnam slgned a producLlon-sharlng conLracL wlLh Mobll for 8lock
3-1b (8lue uragon), Lhls was ln an area where CresLone had planned Lo a conducL
selsmlc survey.
uurlng Lhe perlod 1992 Lo 1996 boLh Chlna and vleLnam sLepped up hydrocarbon (oll
and gas) exploraLlon acLlvlLles ln Lhe LasL Sea. 1hls perlod ls referred Lo as Lhe
scramble for Lhe SpraLlys," durlng whlch vlrLually all feaLures above waLer aL hlgh
Llde were occupled. 8oLh Chlna and vleLnam Look sLeps Lo asserL admlnlsLraLlve
conLrol by landlng Lroops on lslands and oLher feaLures, planLlng LerrlLorlal markers
and plaques, and erecLlng bulldlngs such as llghLhouses.
1he fourLh ma[or Lurnlng polnL came ln laLe 1994/March 1993 when Chlna occupled
and consLrucLed bulldlngs on Mlschlef 8eef, a feaLure clalmed by Lhe hlllpplnes.
9
1hls led ASLAn Lo lssues a sLaLemenL of concern. AlLhough vleLnam was noL yeL a
member of ASLAn lL endorsed ASLAn's sLaLemenL.
Defence Strategy
vleLnam's naLlonal defence sLraLegy reflecLed changes ln lLs sLraLeglc envlronmenL
followlng ma[or Lurnlng polnLs ln Lhe LasL Sea, especlally slnce Lhe March 1988 clash.
uurlng 1986-90 vleLnam carrled ouL a sLraLeglc read[usLmenL by wlLhdrawlng lLs
forces from Cambodla and Laos and cuLLlng Lhe slze of lLs large sLandlng army. 1hls
new sLraLeglc orlenLaLlon was called people's war and all-people's naLlonal
defence."
uurlng Lhe flve-year perlod of sLraLeglc read[usLmenL Lhree maln LhreaLs Lo
vleLnam's securlLy were ldenLlfled: vleLnam's border wlLh Chlna, Lhe SpraLly lslands,
and Lhe sLraLegy of peaceful evoluLlon." Accordlng Lo vleLnamese assessmenLs, Lhe
flrsL Lwo hoL spoLs" could erupL aL any Llme and escalaLe lnLo local armed confllcL or
even full-scale war.
ln response, vleLnam adopLed a pollcy of endlng and prevenLlng armed confllcLs
from bursLlng lnLo wars" by applylng measures of maxlmum self-resLralnL so as Lo
avold lnLenslfylng and spreadlng hosLlle acLlvlLles."
12
Accordlng Lo vleLnam's
Notloool uefeoce 1osks ooJ ColJelloes, 1991-95:
Slnce 1987, we have advocaLed Lhe pollcy of self-resLralnL, lnLenslfled Lhe propaganda
campalgn Lo moLlvaLe Lhe Chlnese people and Lroops Lo cease hosLlllLles and resLore
normal relaLlons, gradually reduced Lhe scale of confllcLs by noL resorLlng Lo gun baLLles
all Lhe Llme, and made Lhe Chlnese people and Lroops clearly undersLand our good wlll
and pracLlcal deeds, Lhus creaLlng condlLlons for endlng Lhe war. 1hls ls, of course, a
dangerous and dlfflculL ldeologlcal sLruggle. Cur Lroops have had Lo endure and even
Lhrough Lhey have aL Llme quesLloned Lhe slLuaLlon, Lhey have always scrupulously
lmplemenLed Lhe pollcles of Lhe hlgher echelons.
8y laLe 1989, accordlng Lo Le uuc Anh, Lhe MlnlsLer of naLlonal uefence, Lhe securlLy
slLuaLlon ln Lhe Lwo hoL spoLs" had become sLable for Lhe Llme belng." vleLnam
now began Lo sLress Lhe Lhe sLraLegy of peaceful evoluLlon" as a ma[or LhreaL Lo lLs
naLlonal securlLy.
ln sum, ln Lhe perlod up Lo 1990 vleLnam ldenLlfled low-level or llmlLed confllcL as
Lhe mosL llkely LhreaL Lo vleLnam's securlLy.
13
Such confllcLs could arlse from
dlspuLes along lLs land and sea borders, offshore LerrlLorles ln Lhe LasL Sea, or as a
resulL of dellberaLe lnsLlgaLlon by lmperlallsL and reacLlonary" forces employlng Lhe
sLraLegy of peaceful evoluLlon."
ln order Lo prepare for such conLlngencles vleLnam asslgned lLs besL-Lralned and
equlpped regular forces (and reserves) Lo defend lLs mosL vlLal areas,
14
lncludlng

12
Le uuc Anh lnLervlew wlLh 1op cbl Oooc lbooq 1ooo uoo carrled by Panol uomesLlc Servlce, 4
uecember 1989.
13
Le 8ang, 8ulld Lhe eople's Armed lorces and Lhe vleLnam eople's Army ln Lhe ulrecLlon of
8enovaLlon", 1op cbl Oooc lbooq 1ooo uoo, (!une 1991), and Ma[. Cen. nguyen Pal 8ang, 1op cbl
Oooc lbooq 1ooo uoo (March 1992), pp. 3-8.
14
MoblllzaLlon reserve forces are locaLed ln all provlnces, clLles and speclal zones. 8eserve forces can
be asslgned Lo Lhe regular force as necessary Lo conducL moblle combaL operaLlons LhroughouL Lhe
counLry (mlllLla and self-defence forces always remaln ln Lhelr locallLles), Senlor Ceneral uoan khue,
10
offshore lslands and oll and gas exploraLlon zones. ln addlLlon, all mlllLary reglons,
provlnces and dlsLrlcLs seL up speclal defence zones ln each of Lhelr sLraLeglc areas.
1hls lncluded offshore lslands. lor example, MlllLary 8eglon 3 ln cenLral vleLnam
deslgnaLed Lhe aracel and SpraLly lslands as a senslLlve defence zone.
13

cbloo. ltleoJ ot loe? Chlna's acLlons ln Lhe LasL Sea ln 1992 (Lhe Lhlrd Lurnlng polnL
dlscussed above) were Lhe focus of dlscusslons aL Lhe Lhlrd plenary meeLlng of Lhe
vC CenLral CommlLLee held from !une 18-19, 1992. Chlna's recenL asserLlveness
posed Lhe fundamenLal quesLlon: whaL were Chlna's ulLlmaLe lnLenLlons?
1here were Lwo maln lLems on Lhe plenum's agenda, renewal and read[usLmenL of
Lhe parLy" and exLernal relaLlons. arLy SecreLary Ceneral uo Muol, ln hls address Lo
Lhe meeLlng, generally presenLed an upbeaL assessmenL of vleLnam's exLernal
relaLlons. Pe noLed, durlng Lhe pasL year, our parLy and sLaLe have acLlvely and
poslLlvely expanded forelgn affalrs acLlvlLles whlle sLrongly opposlng Lhe pollcy of
economlc blockade and lsolaLlon agalnsL vleLnam."
16

1he CenLral CommlLLee plenum dlscussed Lhe quesLlons of whaL consLlLuLed
vleLnam's naLlonal lnLeresLs and wheLher or noL proleLarlan lnLernaLlonallsm
conLrlbuLed Lo Lhe naLlonal lnLeresL. CenLral CommlLLee members also debaLed
wheLher or noL Chlna consLlLuLed a long-Lerm LhreaL Lo vleLnam's securlLy. 1hey
were dlvlded over wheLher Lo classlfy Chlna as expanslonlsL or noL. Accordlng Lo one
lnslder, Clder parLy offlclals argued LhaL Chlna has conLlnued on Lhe road Lo
soclallsm, so we should make allles wlLh Lhe Chlnese and lgnore small confllcLs. 8uL
younger leaders sald Chlna has adopLed a Lwo-faced pollcy Loward vleLnam and ls
uslng soclallsm as a rope Lo Lle vleLnam's hands."
17

1he plenum's flnal communlque endorsed conLlnued efforLs Lo broaden vleLnam's
exLernal relaLlons: forelgn relaLlons hold a very lmporLanL poslLlon ln Lhe cause of
bulldlng soclallsm" and wlLh our open forelgn pollcy, we declare LhaL vleLnam
wanLs Lo befrlend all naLlons ln Lhe world communlLy..." All dlscusslons on relaLlons
wlLh Chlna were kepL confldenLlal.
lotce MoJetolzotloo lo tbe 1990s. ln response Lo soverelgnLy dlspuLes wlLh Chlna ln
Lhe LasL Sea ln Lhe 1990s, vleLnam lnlLlaLed a modesL efforL Lo modernlze lLs naval
and alr forces lor example, ln 1994 vleLnam and Lhe 8usslan lederaLlon concluded
an arms sale conLracL. Cn May 13, 1993, uo Muol, Lhe SecreLary Ceneral of Lhe vC,
called for Lhe modernlzaLlon of Lhe vA navy so lL could proLecL Lhe counLry's
LerrlLorlal waLers. Accordlng Lo uo Muol, we musL relnforce our defence capaclLy Lo
defend our soverelgnLy, naLlonal lnLeresLs and naLural marlne resources, whlle aL Lhe
same Llme bulldlng a marlLlme economy." And ln CcLober 1998 vleLnam and 8ussla
slgned a ma[or uefence CooperaLlon AgreemenL.

ConsolldaLlng and 8ulldlng MoblllzaLlon 8eserve lorces and MlllLla and Self-uefence lorces of Cood
CuallLy Lverywhere Lo ConLrlbuLe Lo 8ulldlng SLrong uefence Areas", Panol uomesLlc Servlce, 28 !une
1989.
13
LL. Cen han Poan, llrmly MalnLalnlng SecurlLy and ConsolldaLlng naLlonal uefence ln Lhe 3Lh
MlllLary 8eglon", 1op cbl Oooc lbooq 1ooo uoo (CcLober 1992), pp. 46-30.
16
volce of vleLnam, !uly 7, 1992. 1hls was a reference Lo Lhe unlLed SLaLes.
17
CuoLed ln Murray PleberL, unhealed wounds", lot osteto cooomlc kevlew," !uly 16, 1992, 20.
11
8eLween 1994-1999, vleLnam purchased four modlfled 1otootol 2-Lype corveLLes
from 8ussla. 1he shlps were armed wlLh SS-n-2u S1?x anLl-shlp mlsslle, lgla surface-
Lo-alr mlsslles (SAMs), and addlLlonal guns. ln 1996, 8ussla and vleLnam also reached
agreemenL Lo co-produce 8S 300-Lype mlsslle boaLs.
A second and more deLermlned phase ln vleLnam's force modernlzaLlon program
began ln 2003-2004. ln 2004 vleLnam Look dellvery of four Su-30Mk mulLlrole [eL
flghLers LhaL were ordered Lhe prevlous year. ln 2010, vleLnam purchased an
addlLlonal Lwelve Su-30s.
ln March 2004, vleLnam slgned an agreemenL for Len 1otootol v or Mololyo (ro[ecL
1241.8) corveLLes armed wlLh SS-n-23 (kh 33 uran) mlsslles. 1wo corveLLes were
bullL ln 8ussla and dellvered Lo vleLnam ln laLe 2007. 1wo addlLlonal Mololyo-class
corveLLes, PC 377 and PC 378, were consLrucLed aL Lhe 8a Son Shlpyard. Cn Aprll
28, 2014 Lhey LesL flred mlsslles near Cam 8anh 8ay and on !uly 17, 2014 Lhey were
offlclally commlssloned lnLo Lhe vleLnamese navy. 1he remalnlng slx corveLLes are
scheduled for consLrucLlon ln vleLnam.
ln uecember 2006, vleLnam reached agreemenL wlLh 8osoboronexporL (8usslan
uefence LxporLs) for Lhe purchase of Lwo CepotJ J.9-class (ro[ecL 11661) gulded
mlsslle sLealLh frlgaLes. 1hls deal was esLlmaLed aL u.S. $300 mllllon.
18
1he followlng
year vleLnam conLracLed for slx 5vetlyok-class lasL ALLack CrafL armed wlLh anLl-shlp
mlsslles and Lhe k-300 8asLlon coasLal defence mlsslle sysLem.
ln summary, vleLnam's modernlzaLlon programme ls clearly almed aL lmprovlng lLs
capaclLy Lo monlLor lLs LerrlLorlal waLers, Lxcluslve Lconomlc Zone and conLlnenLal
shelf, proLecL lLs key offshore oll and gas plaLforms, defend occupled feaLures ln Lhe
LasL Sea, develop anLl-shlpplng, anLl-submarlne warfare (ASW) and mlne counLer-
measure capablllLles, and pro[ecL naval power lnLo Lhe LasL Sea. AlmosL all ma[or
defence procuremenL programmes elLher underway or planned reflecL Lhese
prlorlLles.
V|etnam's Mar|t|me Strategy to 2020
ln !anuary 2007 Lhe vC CenLral CommlLLee's fourLh plenum decreed LhaL a
marlLlme sLraLegy should be drawn up. 1he resulL was a documenL enLlLled
vleLnam's MarlLlme SLraLegy Lo 2020," vleLnam's flrsL comprehenslve and
lnLegraLed marlLlme sLraLegy LhaL lncluded economlc, defence and securlLy
ob[ecLlves.
19
1hls sLraLegy lald ouL plans Lo lnLegraLe vleLnam's coasLal economy wlLh
Lhe marlne and hydrocarbon resources ln lLs Lxcluslve Lconomlc Zone (LLZ),
conLlnenLal shelf and waLers surroundlng vleLnamese-occupled feaLures ln Lhe LasL

18
1he frlgaLes PC 11 ulob 1leo noooq and PC 12 ly 1bol 1o, were commlssloned ln March and AugusL
2011, respecLlvely. 1here were armed wlLh Lhe alma Close ln Weapons SysLem (ClWS). 1hls sysLem
comprlses Sosna-8 hypersonlc surface-Lo-alr mlsslles, Lwo slx-barrel AC-18ku 33mm auLomaLlc
cannons and Lhe 3v-89elecLro-opLlcal mulLlchannel elecLronlc counLer-measures flre conLrol sysLem.
1he ClWS can engage slx LargeLs up Lo elghL kllomeLres away.
19
Chlen luoc blen vleL nam den nam 2020 (vleLnam's MarlLlme SLraLegy Lo 2020)", 8esoluLlon 09-
nC/1W, 9 lebruary 2007. rlme MlnlsLer nguyen 1an uung laLer approved ueclslon 368, 28 Aprll
2010, Lo develop vleLnam's sea and lslands-based economy by 2020.
12
Sea. vleLnamese economlsLs esLlmaLed LhaL by 2020 Lhe marlLlme economy would
conLrlbuLe beLween 33-33 per cenL of Cu and 33-60 per cenL of exporLs.
20

ln 2007-08, Chlna responded Lo Lhls sLraLegy by puLLlng pressure on forelgn oll
companles Lo pull ouL of any deals Lo asslsL vleLnam wlLh lLs offshore oll and gas
exploraLlon acLlvlLles. ln addlLlon, ln mld-2011. Chlnese paramlllLary enforcemenL
vessels cuL Lhe cables of shlps carrylng ouL selsmlc surveys ln vleLnam's LLZ. 1hese
Chlnese acLlons were vlewed as a dlrecL LhreaL Lo vleLnam's vlLal naLlonal lnLeresLs
because Lhey were percelved as dellberaLe aLLempL Lo dlsrupL vleLnam's naLlonal
developmenL plans.
lrom 2007, Chlna exLended lLs unllaLeral flshlng ban from May-AugusL ln waLers
norLh of Lwelve degrees norLh laLlLude Lo lnclude vleLnamese and oLher forelgn
flshlng vessels. 1hls resulLed ln Chlnese harassmenL, lll LreaLmenL, selzure of flsh
caLches, conflscaLlon of CS navlgaLlonal equlpmenL and radlos, Lools and spares and
physlcal vlolence agalnsL vleLnamese flshlng crews lncludlng faLallLles. AL Lhe same
Llme, Chlnese auLhorlLles encouraged Chlnese flshlng boaLs Lo lnLrude lnLo waLers
wlLhln vleLnam LLZ. 1hese Chlnese acLlons, whlle noL vlewed as gravely as LhreaLs Lo
lLs offshore oll and gas lndusLry, were neverLheless consldered serlous. vleLnam
responded by lodglng dlplomaLlc proLesLs and by Laklng even more deLermlned sLeps
Lo modernlze lLs naval, alr and mlsslle forces.
coopetotloo wltb cbloo. vleLnam pursues slmulLaneous pollcles of deference and
deflance Lowards Chlna Lhrough a sLraLegy lL descrlbes as cooperaLlon and
sLruggle."
21
vleLnam seeks Lo promoLe cooperaLlon wlLh Chlna across Lhe full
specLrum of bllaLeral relaLlons. AL Lhe same Llme, vleLnam sLruggles" (or reslsLs
and/or defles) Chlna when lLs naLlonal lnLeresLs are LhreaLened.
vleLnam seeks Lo prevenL lLs LerrlLorlal dlspuLes wlLh Chlna from spllllng over and
affecLlng bllaLeral relaLlons ln general. ln 2009, for example, vleLnam's relaLlons wlLh
Chlna were ralsed Lo a comprehenslve sLraLeglc cooperaLlve parLnershlp ln splLe of
Lenslons ln Lhe SouLh Chlna Sea.
22

vleLnam manages lLs relaLlons wlLh Chlna Lhrough a !olnL SLeerlng CommlLLee LhaL
oversees all aspecLs of Lhelr bllaLeral relaLlons.
23
1he !olnL SLeerlng CommlLLee has
conLlnued Lo meeL desplLe rlslng Lenslons ln Lhe LasL Sea (see below). ln addlLlon,
vleLnam malnLalns a dense neLwork of hlgh-level parLy, governmenL and mlllLary
conLacLs and exchanges hundreds of delegaLlons each year. rlor Lo Lhe ollrlg crlsls of

20
1hong 8ao Pol nghl (lenum Communlque)", 1op cbl cooq soo no. 772 (lebruary 2007): 3.
21
Carlyle A. 1hayer, 1he 1yranny of Ceography: vleLnamese SLraLegles Lo ConsLraln Chlna ln Lhe
SouLh Chlna Sea," cootempototy 5ootbeost Aslo, 33(3), 2011, 348-369.
22
Carlyle A. 1hayer, vleLnam on Lhe 8oad Lo Clobal lnLegraLlon: lorglng SLraLeglc arLnershlps
1hrough lnLernaLlonal SecurlLy CooperaLlon," keynoLe aper Lo Lhe Cpenlng lenary Sesslon, 4Lh
lnLernaLlonal vleLnamese SLudles Conference, co-sponsored by Lhe vleLnam Academy of Soclal
Sclences and vleLnam naLlonal unlverslLy, Panol, vleLnam, november 26-30, 2012, 13. Avallable aL
Scrlbd.com.
23
1he SLeerlng CommlLLee ls co-chalred by depuLy prlme mlnlsLers who are also members of Lhelr
respecLlve parLy ollLburos.
13
May-!uly 2014, vleLnam Look sLeps Lo dampen domesLlc anLl-Chlna naLlonallsL
senLlmenL by gagglng Lhe press and suppresslng publlc anLl-Chlna demonsLraLlons.
ln CcLober 2011, ln a ma[or developmenL, Chlna and vleLnam slgned ln 8el[lng an
AgreemenL on 8aslc rlnclples Culdlng Lhe SeLLlemenL of MarlLlme-8elaLed lssues.
Chlna and vleLnam commlLLed Lhemselves Lo seek baslc and long-sLandlng soluLlons
accepLable Lo boLh sldes for sea-relaLed dlspuLes on Lhe basls of lnLernaLlonal law"
and Lo resolve Lhelr marlLlme dlspuLes Lhrough frlendly Lalks and negoLlaLlons."
endlng Lhe seLLlemenL of Lhelr dlspuLes, Chlna and vleLnam also agreed Lo acLlvely
dlscuss LranslLlonal and Lemporary measures LhaL do noL affecL Lhe sLances and
pollcles of Lhe Lwo sldes, lncludlng sLudles and dlscusslons on cooperaLlon for muLual
developmenL." ln sum, lL appeared LhaL Panol and 8el[lng had succeeded ln
comparLmenLallzlng Lhelr marlLlme LerrlLorlal dlspuLes from Lhelr larger bllaLeral
relaLlonshlp.
5ttoqqle Aqolost cbloo. vleLnam's sLruggles" agalnsL Chlna ln response Lo speclflc
lncldenLs ln Lhe LasL Sea, such as harassmenL of lLs flshermen and Chlnese lnLruslons
lnLo lLs LLZ, by lssulng dlplomaLlc proLesLs. 1he vleLnam MarlLlme ollce
24
chase
away Chlnese flshermen and on occaslon muscle" Chlnese marlLlme enforcemenL
shlps.
vleLnam ls especlally concerned Lo prevenL any marlLlme lncldenL from escalaLlng Lo
Lhe polnL where lL ls drawn lnLo an armed clash wlLh superlor Chlnese mlllLary forces
and/or provoklng Chlna Lo selze an lsleL or rock LhaL vleLnam presenLly occuples.
vleLnam's responses are carefully callbraLed acLs deslgned Lo underscore vleLnam's
soverelgnLy wlLhouL unduly provoklng Chlna.
uefeoce ulplomocy. A good lllusLraLlon of vleLnam's pollcy of cooperaLlon and
sLruggle" can be found ln lLs defense dlplomacy wlLh Lhe ma[or powers. vleLnam
engages ln hedglng by encouraglng Lhe ma[or powers, parLlcularly Lhe unlLed SLaLes,
!apan and lndla, Lo conLrlbuLe Lo marlLlme securlLy by balanclng Chlnese mlllLary
power.
Chlnese asserLlveness also has resulLed ln vleLnamese efforLs Lo uLlllze defense
dlplomacy ln an efforL Lo enllsL supporL from ma[or marlLlme powers Lo counLer
Chlnese asserLlveness. ln 2010, for example, vleLnam as ASLAn Chalr lobbled Lhe
unlLed SLaLes and oLher powers Lo lnLervene ln Lhe LasL Sea dlspuLe aL Lhe mld-year
meeLlng of Lhe ASLAn 8eglonal lorum and Lhe lnaugural meeLlng of Lhe ASLAn
uefence MlnlsLers MeeLlng lus held ln Panol ln CcLober.
vleLnam has also played a dellcaLe dlplomaLlc hand wlLh Chlna. ln november 2008,
aL vleLnam's lnvlLaLlon, Lhe eople's LlberaLlon Army navy (LAn) resumed porL
vlslLs Lo vleLnam afLer a hlaLus of sevenLeen years. LAn shlps now vlslL annually. ln
Aprll 2012, for example, a LAn Lralnlng shlp vlslLed Lhe porL of Salgon.
Chlna and vleLnam also expanded Lhe scope of Lhelr [olnL flshery paLrols ln Lhe Culf
of 1onkln lnlLlaLed ln Aprll 2006. ln Aprll 2012, vleLnam and Chlna conducLed Lhelr
sevenLh [olnL flshery cooperaLlon paLrol. 1he LhlrLeenLh [olnL paLrol, whlch was

24
8enamed Lhe vleLnam CoasL Cuard.
14
conducLed ln !une 2012, lncluded day and nlghL slgnallng exerclses and an anLl-plracy
drlll. 8y !une 2014 a LoLal of slxLeen [olnL paLrols had been conducLed.
ln !anuary 2013, Lwo LAn frlgaLes and a replenlshmenL shlp pald a goodwlll vlslL Lo
Po Chl Mlnh ClLy afLer deploymenL ln Lhe Culf of Aden. 1he vA navy made lLs flrsL
porL call Lo Chlna ln !une 2009 and revlslLed ln !une 2011 and !une 2013.
ln 2010, vleLnam and Chlna ralsed Lhelr SLraLeglc uefence and SecurlLy ulalogue Lo
depuLy mlnlsLer level. ln AugusL 2011, Chlna and vleLnam held Lhelr second SLraLeglc
uefence and SecurlLy ulalogue aL depuLy mlnlsLer level. AL Lhls meeLlng lL was agreed
LhaL mlllLary exchanges would be lncreased and a hoL llne esLabllshed beLween Lhelr
defence mlnlsLrles.
ln SepLember 2012, Chlna and vleLnam held Lhelr Lhlrd SLraLeglc uefence and
SecurlLy ulalogue. 1he Lwo sldes agreed Lo conLlnue hlgh-level vlslLs, sLrengLhen
dlalogue and consulLaLlon, promoLe cooperaLlon ln Lhe flelds of personnel Lralnlng,
border exchanges, navy and mulLllaLeral securlLy lssues." Chlna and vleLnam held
Lhelr fourLh SLraLeglc uefence and SecurlLy ulalogue ln 8el[lng ln !une 2013 and
agreed Lo seL up a naval hoLllne.
SecreLary Ceneral nguyen hu 1rong vlslLed 8el[lng ln CcLober 2011. ln !une 2013,
vleLnam's sLaLe presldenL 1ruong 1an Sang also vlslLed 8el[lng.
Notloool uefeoce loJostty. ln addlLlon Lo defence dlplomacy almed aL promoLlng
cooperaLlon wlLh Chlna, vleLnam has also embarked on self-help modernlzaLlon of
lLs naval, alr and mlsslle forces Lo presenL a credlble counLer-lnLervenLlon
deLerrenL.
23
vleLnam seeks Lo enhance lLs capaclLy Lo sLruggle" agalnsL Chlna should
clrcumsLances warranL by developlng lLs naLlonal defence lndusLry and force
modernlzaLlon (see nexL secLlon).
vleLnam's naLlonal defence lndusLry ls capable of shlpyard repalrs, assembllng navy
paLrol boaLs, and consLrucLlng small surface combaLanLs. lor example, ln november
2006, vleLnam announced Lhe launch of Lhe largesL made-ln-vleLnam rescue boaL aL
Lhe uanang mlllLary porL. 1he boaL was bullL by lanL Z124, Song 1hu Company,
uefence lndusLry Ceneral ueparLmenL, ln elghLeen monLhs uLlllslng Lechnology
Lransferred by Lhe uamen CorporaLlon ln Lhe neLherlands.
26

vleLnam also assembled one 8S 300 (ro[ecL 12418) mlsslle corveLLe from a klL
provlded by 8ussla ln a co-producLlon agreemenL.
27
1hls was vleLnam's flrsL
domesLlcally produced mlsslle corveLLe and lL was armed wlLh Lhe kh-33 uran-L anLl-
shlp mlsslle. ln 2013, Lhe 8S-300 PC 381 underwenL repalrs, overhaul and upgrade.

23
Carlyle A. 1hayer, SLraLeglc osLure 8evlew: vleLnam," wotlJ lolltlcs kevlew, !anuary 13, 2013. 1-
11.
26
8oberL karnlol, 'vleLnam's defence lndusLry sLuLLers along', 1be 5ttolts 1lmes, !uly 14, 2008 reporLs
LhaL vleLnam plans Lo bulld Lwo 2,300-Lonne search and rescue shlps.
27
Cnly one 8S-300 (PC 381) was produced because more modern mlsslle boaL deslgns became
avallable. vleLnam opLed for Lhe Mololyo-class.
15
8eLween !anuary 2012 and May 2014, Lhe Pong Pa Shlpbulldlng Company handed
over Lhree 11 400 1 gunshlps Lo Lhe vleLnamese navy.
28

vleLnam's naLlonal defence lndusLry has also enLered lnLo co-producLlon
arrangemenLs. ln november 2006, 8ussla and vleLnam drew up an agreemenL on
Lechnlcal asslsLance Lo co-produce Lhe okboot shlp-Lo-shlp mlsslles. ln early 2008,
vleLnam and 8ussla slgned a conLracL for Lhe dellvery of several shlpbulldlng klLs and
relaLed weapons sysLems for domesLlc assembly ln vleLnam's Pong Pa shlpyard. 1he
klLs conLaln a mlx of vessels for Lhe navy and coasL guard. 1he conLracL was valued aL
u.S. $670 mllllon. vleLnam and uamen (neLherlands) are currenLly dlscusslng Lhe co-
producLlon of Lwo 5lqmo-class corveLLes ln vleLnam.
uefeoce MoJetolzotloo. vleLnam's mosL recenL uefence WhlLe aper, lssued ln
uecember 2009, emphaslsed Lhe gradual modernlsaLlon of Lhe regular armed forces.
ln !anuary 2011 Lhe ollLlcal 8eporL Lo Lhe vC's LlevenLh naLlonal Congress
ldenLlfled modernlsaLlon of Lhe armed forces and defence lndusLry as one of Lhe flve
key naLlonal ob[ecLlves for Lhe nexL flve years (2011-2013).
Accordlng Lo Lhe ollLlcal 8eporL, Lhe ma[or challenges affecLlng naLlonal defence
responslblllLles ln Lhe new envlronmenL" lncluded: war uslng hl-Lech weaponry,
Jlspotes ovet motltlme sovetelqoty, Lerrorlsm, and hl-Lech and LransnaLlonal crlmes
[emphasls added]." ln order Lo meeL Lhese challenges Lhe ollLlcal 8eporL gave
prlorlLy Lo ensurlng LhaL Lhe armed forces lncremenLally have access Lo modern
equlpmenL wlLh prlorlLy belng glven Lo Lhe navy, alr force, securlLy, lnLelllgence, and
moblle pollce forces." Speaklng on Lhe slde llnes of Lhe parLy congress, Ceneral
hung Cuang 1hanh, MlnlsLer of naLlonal uefence, lncluded elecLronlc and Lechnlcal
reconnalssance among Lhe prlorlLles for defence lnLelllgence.
vletooms coootet-lotetveotloo 5ttoteqy. vleLnam's recenL arms acqulslLlons reflecL
a number of facLors such as Lhe need Lo modernlze and upgrade exlsLlng sLocks of
weapon sysLems and plaLforms, Lhe growlng lmporLance of vleLnam's marlLlme
economy, Lhe modernlsaLlon of oLher reglonal armed forces, and Lhe lnLroducLlon of
new mlllLary Lechnologles lnLo Lhe reglon. 8uL no drlver of force modernlzaLlon ls
more lmporLanL Lhan vleLnam's LerrlLorlal dlspuLes wlLh Chlna ln Lhe LasL Sea.
ln 2008, vleLnam's defense mlnlsLer and sLaLe presldenL made separaLe vlslLs Lo
Moscow Lo conclude negoLlaLlons for Lhe purchase of convenLlonal submarlnes. Cn
Aprll 24, 2009, vladlmlr Aleksandrov, Lhe general dlrecLor of AdmlralLelskle verfl
(AdmlralLy Shlpyard) ln SL. eLersburg, announced LhaL hls company would bulld slx
ro[ecL 636Mv votsbovyooko-class submarlnes (or lmproved kllo-class submarlnes)
for vleLnam. 1he submarlnes were prlced aL uS $300-330 mllllon per unlL or $1.8-2.1
bllllon ln LoLal.
29


28
11, tooo tto, sLands for paLrol, whlle 1, too pboo, sLands for gunshlp. 1hese are numbered PC 272,
PC 273 and PC 274. 1hese vessels dlsplace approxlmaLely 480 Lons. 1hey are armed wlLh 14.3 mm
anLl-alrcrafL guns, one Ak-176 76mm auLomaLlc cannon, and a slx-barreled 30 mm Ak-630 radar
conLrolled gun. 1he gunboaLs are also armed wlLh Lhe MAnAu SA-n-14 C8CuSL anLl-mlsslle sysLem.
29
ln !une 2010, lL was reporLed LhaL Lhe LoLal cosL of vleLnam's submarlne package had rlsen from Lhe
orlglnal esLlmaLes of $1.8-$2.1 bllllon Lo $3.2 bllllon. 1he addlLlonal cosLs lncluded armamenLs and
lnfrasLrucLure consLrucLlon.
16
1he formal conLracL Lo purchase Lhe slx submarlnes was slgned ln Moscow beLween
8osoboronexporL and Lhe vleLnam's MlnlsLry of naLlonal uefense ln uecember 2009.
AdmlralLy Shlpyards began consLrucLlon of Lhe flrsL of slx submarlnes wlLh a keel-
laylng ceremony on AugusL 24, 2010 (See 1able 1 below). 1he 8ussla-vleLnam
submarlne conLracL also lncluded provlslons for crew Lralnlng and Lhe consLrucLlon of
an on-shore malnLenance faclllLy ln addlLlon Lo Lhe dellvery of Lhe slx submarlnes. ln
March 2010, vleLnam formally requesLed 8usslan asslsLance ln consLrucLlng a
submarlne base aL Cam 8anh 8ay.
1ab|e 1 Status of V|etnam's Submar|ne Iorce
ro[ect 636MV "#$%&#'(#)*#+c|ass Status
n 182 ,#)-. uellvered uecember 31, 2013
n 183 ,- /&. 0.)& /.1( uellvered March 19, 2014
n 184 ,#. 2&-)3 CompleLlng sea Lrlals, dellvery expecLed
ln november 2014
n 18S 4# 5#)3 Launched laLe March 2014 undergolng
sea Lrlals
n 186 6&#)& ,-# under consLrucLlon
n 187 7# 8.#+"9)3 :#9 Lald down March 2014, scheduled for
launchlng SepLember 2013 and Lo be
dellvered by 2016
1he votsbovyooko ls a non-nuclear fasL aLLack submarlne (SSk), Lhe laLesL and mosL
lmproved varlanL of Lhe ro[ecL 636Mv class. lL has beLLer range, speed, rellablllLy,
sea endurance, acousLlc characLerlzes and flrepower Lhan lLs earller varlanL. lL ls
deslgned Lo perform Lhe followlng mlsslons: anLl-submarlne and anLl-shlpplng
warfare, coasLal defense, mlne laylng, general reconnalssance and paLrol.
1he votsbovyooko-class submarlne has slx 333-mm forward Lorpedo Lubes. lL can
carry 18 Lorpedoes (slx loaded ln Lhe Lubes and 12 ln racks) or 24 mlnes (Lwo ln each
Lube and 12 ln racks). 1wo of Lhe Lorpedo Lubes are deslgned Lo flre remoLe-
conLrolled Lorpedoes wlLh very hlgh accuracy. 1he lmproved kllo can also flre anLl-
shlp crulse mlsslles from lLs Lorpedo Lubes. 1he votsbovyooko-class submarlne also
carrles MAnAuS S18LLA-3 anLl-alrcrafL mlsslles.
lndusLry sources reporL LhaL vleLnam's votsbovyooko-submarlnes wlll be equlpped
wlLh Lhe anLl-shlp 33-63 and 1LS1 71 anLl-submarlne Lorpedoes.
30
lndusLry sources
also speculaLe LhaL vleLnam's submarlnes wlll be klLLed ouL wlLh klob anLl-shlp
mlsslles, such as Lhe 3M-34L or 3M-34L1. ln !uly 2011, Cleg Azlzov, a represenLaLlve

30
lndusLry sources reporLed ln March 2014 LhaL vleLnam purchased flfLy 3M-34 klub anLl-shlp
mlsslles, elghLy 33-63 anLl-shlp Lorpedoes, and elghLy anLl=shlp/anLl-submarlne 1LS1-71 Lorpedoes ln
2013.
17
of 8osoboronexporL, conflrmed LhaL vleLnam wlll Lake dellvery of Lhe deadly Novotot
Club-S (SS-n-27) anLl-shlp crulse mlsslle wlLh a range of 300 kllomeLers.
ln AugusL 2011, vleLnam's uefence MlnlsLer sLaLed LhaL he expecLs Lo deploy a
modern submarlne fleeL by 2016-2017. ln furLherance of Lhls goal ln november
2013, durlng Lhe vlslL of vleLnam's parLy SecreLary Ceneral nguyen hu 1rong Lo
lndla, lL was announced LhaL lndla would provlde Lralnlng for up Lo 300 submarlners
as parL of lLs defense cooperaLlon program wlLh vleLnam. 1ralnlng wlll be conducLed
aL Lhe lndlan navy's modern submarlne Lralnlng cenLer lN5 5otovobooo ln
vlsakhapaLnam.
vleLnam's votsbovyooko submarlnes are noL paLrolllng ln Lhe relaLlvely shallow
waLers of Lhe LasL Sea.
31
When Lhey commence operaLlons Lhey wlll enhance
vleLnam's marlLlme domaln awareness abouL Lhe operaLlons of forelgn paramlllLary
and naval vessels ln waLers off vleLnam's coasLllne and ln waLers surroundlng Lhe
aracel and SpraLly lslands. ln addlLlon, Lhe votsbovyooko submarlnes wlll provlde a
deLerrenL agalnsL Lhe conLlngency LhaL Chlna unexpecLedly mlghL aLLempL Lo selze an
lsland or feaLure occupled by vleLnam ln Lhe LasL Sea. More generally, Lhe
votsbovyooko subs wlll provlde a modesL buL poLenL anLl-access/area denlal
capablllLy agalnsL lnLlmldaLlon by LAn warshlps.
ln laLe 2011 vleLnam slgned a conLracL wlLh uuLch Schelde shlpyard Lo bulld four
Slgma 90-class frlgaLes Lo be equlpped wlLh Lhe newesL LxoceL anLl-shlp mlsslle.
WesLern scholars are dlvlded ln Lhelr assessmenLs of vleLnam's force modernlzaLlon
efforLs and vleLnam's ablllLy Lo confronL Chlna ln Lhe marlLlme domaln. Zachary
Abuza, a pollLlcal sclenLlsL aL Slmmons College, represenLs Lhe negaLlve end of Lhe
specLrum. Pe offers Lhe assessmenL LhaL lL wlll Lake years for vleLnam Lo compleLe
lLs currenL round of modernlzaLlon, as well as develop new docLrlnes and LacLlcs Lo
use Lhls new Lechnology." Pe concludes, vleLnam's besL weapons remaln dlplomacy
and lnLernaLlonal law."
32

Lyle ColdsLeln, a professor aL Lhe u.S. naval War College, presenLs an analysls of
Chlnese assessmenLs of vleLnamese mlllLary capablllLles. Pe noLes LhaL Chlna has
monlLored vleLnam's growlng defence capaclLy exLremely closely" and has ample
respecL. for vleLnam overall" and conslderable respecL" for Lhe vleLnamese Alr
lorce.
ColdsLeln noLes LhaL vleLnam's votsbovyooko-class submarlnes can dellver leLhal
blows wlLh elLher Lorpedoes or anLl-shlp crulse mlsslles." Zhang 8aohul, a securlLy
speclallsL aL Llngnan unlverslLy ln Pong kong, concurs. Pe reporLs LhaL Chlna's
mlllLary planners are concerned abouL vleLnam's submarlnes. Cn a LheoreLlcal
level," he noLes, Lhe vleLnamese are aL Lhe polnL where Lhey could puL Lhem Lo
combaL use."
33

noneLheless, ColdsLeln concludes:

31
Creg 1orode, vleLnam bulldlng deLerrenL agalnsL Chlna ln dlspuLed seas wlLh submarlnes,"
8euLers, SepLember 8, 2014.
32
Zachary Abuza, vleLnam's lncompleLe MlllLary ModernlzaLlon," coqltA5lA, May 29, 2014.
33
CuoLed ln 1orode, vleLnam bulldlng deLerrenL agalnsL Chlna ln dlspuLed seas wlLh submarlnes."
18
Chlnese mlllLary researchers have polnLed ouL varlous weaknesses ln vleLnam's evolvlng
mlllLary sLraLegy. Speclflcally, lL has been noLed LhaL submarlnes may be a ma[or LhrusL of
vleLnam's efforLs, buL Chlnese analysLs assess LhaL vleLnam ls fundamenLally lacklng ln ma[or
experlence ln operaLlng Lhese lncredlbly complex weapons sysLems. AnoLher posslble
weakness ln vleLnam's defence capablllLy ldenLlfled by Chlnese analysLs concerns survelllance,
LargeLlng and baLLle managemenL. 1here seems Lo be a general sense LhaL Chlna could prevall
ln any armed clash, followlng whaL ls referred Lo ln Chlnese mlllLary clrcles as Lhe 3.14
model," whlch refers Lo Lhe 14 March 1988 clash ln Lhe SpraLlys ln whlch a small Chlnese naval
floLllla sank a couple of vleLnamese shlps ln a small buL declslve engagemenL.
34

ColdsLeln concurs wlLh Abuza LhaL vleLnam's mosL promlslng sLraLegy versus Chlna
ls Lhe hope LhaL lL mlghL have sufflclenL forces for deLerrence, whlle slmulLaneously
pursulng dlplomacy Lo resolve dlspuLes."
Cary Ll, 8rlan 8enedlcLus, 8oberL larley, Collln koh and Slemon Wezeman represenL
Lhe oLher end of Lhe specLrum ln Lhelr evaluaLlons of vleLnam's counLer-lnLervenLlon
sLraLegy. Ll noLes LhaL vleLnam possesses Lhe largesL and mosL numerous number of
lslands ln Lhe SpraLly archlpelago. Chlna has Lo Lravel vasL dlsLances Lo reach Lhe
ends of lLs clalmanL zone." 1hls, he argues, glves vleLnam an advanLage:
vleLnam, on Lhe oLher hand, ls conLesLlng an area LhaL ls rlghL on lLs doorsLep, lLs fleeL of
mlsslle-armed llghL corveLLes and submarlnes can sLrlke and reLreaL lnLo Lhelr homeporLs aL
wlll, whlle a sLrlcken Chlnese fleeL would more or less be losL.
vleLnam does noL need Lo maLch Chlna shlp for shlp, buL raLher Lake lLs docLrlne of guerllla
warfare Lo Lhe hlgh seas. An asymmeLrlcal sLraLegy, comblned wlLh Lhe forglng of Llmely
alllances wlLh Chlna's rlvals, places vleLnam well for Lhe comlng confllcL.
33

8rlan 8enedlcLus revlews ln deLall Lhe capablllLles of vleLnam's CepotJ-class llghL
frlgaLes, Mololyo-class corveLLes, and enhanced kllo (votsbovyooko)-class
submarlnes. Pe concludes LhaL Lhese acqulslLlons, poLenLlally allows lL more opLlons
ln lLs power pro[ecLlon Lowards clalms ln Lhe SouLh Chlna Sea." vleLnam's frlgaLes
and corveLLes, for example,
all have Lhe ablllLy Lo be qulck sLrlke vessels ln a confllcL scenarlo near Lhe SouLh Chlna Sea, and
poLenLlally dellver devasLaLlng blows Lo enemy vessels, someLhlng 8el[lng musL Lake lnLo
accounL before a declslon would be made Lo engage Lhe vleLnamese navy.
36

AL Lhe same Llme, vleLnam's votsbovyooko-class submarlnes have Lhe poLenLlal Lo
dlsrupL enemy shlps ln a mlllLary confllcL ln a varleLy of ways," parLlcularly as Lhe
LAn ls weak ln anLl-submarlne warfare. llnally, 8enedlcLus llke Ll, sLresses Lhe
lmporLance of Lhe geographlc facLor. Pe argues:
vleLnam ls ln close proxlmlLy Lo Chlna's Palnan rovlnce, Lhe lsland whlch ls harbor Lo Lhe
LAn SouLhern aclflc lleeL. lL ls worrlsome enough for 8el[lng Lo conslder LhaL harbored
vessels could be easy prey Lo submarlnes off Lhe lsland's shores, lf confllcL Look place, Lhe
prospecL of vleLnam someday havlng land-aLLack capablllLles lnLegraLed lnLo lLs submarlne

34
!ane erlez, C. and A.: Lyle ColdsLeln on Chlna and Lhe vleLnamese MlllLary," 1be New otk 1lmes,
!uly 3, 2014.
33
Cary Ll, vleLnam's AsymmeLrlcal SLraLegy: LocaLlon Cffers AdvanLages Cver Chlna," uefeose News,
lebruary 3, 2012.
36
8rlan 8enedlcLus, 1he Wlldcard: vleLnam's naval ModernlzaLlon and lLs 8ole ln Lhe SouLh Chlna
Sea," wotm Oolooq 1eo, lebruary 11, 2013.
19
fleeL would be a serlous cause of concern.
37

8oberL larley relnforces Lhe argumenLs made by Ll and 8enedlcLus ln an arLlcle LhaL
conslders flve vleLnamese weapons LhaL Chlna should fear. Pe llsLs Lhe Su-27 llooket
flghLer, Lhe kllo-class submarlne, Lhe -800 Cnyx Crulse Mlsslle, Lhe S-300 SAM and
Space. 1he -800 Cnyx crulse mlsslle can be launched from alrcrafL, surface shlps,
submarlnes, and shore based plaLforms. ln comblnaLlon Lhese mlsslles could aLLack
Chlnese shlps from mulLlple, unexpecLed vecLors ln order Lo overwhelm Lhe LAn's
shlpboard alr defense sysLems."
38

1he S-300 surface-Lo-alr mlsslle ls one of Lhe world's mosL sophlsLlcaLed and
lnLegraLed alr defence sysLem. Accordlng Lo larely, lL can Lrack and engage dozens
of LargeLs aL ranges of up Lo sevenLy-flve mlles. used ln con[uncLlon wlLh Lhe
flghLers of Lhe vAl (vleLnam eople's Army Alr lorce), Lhe SAM neLwork would
make lL very dlfflculL Lo carry ouL a concerLed alr campalgn agalnsL vleLnam aL
accepLable cosL."
And flnally, larley noLes, vleLnam has Lhe advanLage of space," LhaL ls,
lnhosplLable Lerraln" LhaL would deLer Chlna from launchlng a land lnvaslon.
larley [olns Ll and 8enedlcLus ln concludlng:
vleLnam does noL wanL a full-scale war wlLh Chlna. ln parLlcular vleLnam doesn'L wanL Lo go
Loe-Lo-Loe wlLh Chlna ln a caplLal and Lechnology lnLenslve war LhaL mlghL aLLrlLe away Lhe
expenslve equlpmenL Lhe vA has acqulred. neverLheless, Chlna musL appreclaLe LhaL vleLnam
has blLe. 1he vleLnamese mlllLary, ln lLs currenL conflguraLlon, ls deslgned Lo deLer Chlnese
advenLurlsm. We can expecL LhaL vleLnam wlll enhance Lhese capablllLles as Lhe years go on,
and as provocaLlons ln Lhe SouLh Chlna Sea conLlnue.
39

Collln koh, from Lhe S. 8a[araLnam School of lnLernaLlonal SLudles ln Slngapore,
argues LhaL vleLnam wlll use lLs submarlnes ln area denlal operaLlons off lLs coasL
and ln Lhe SpraLly lslands once Lhey become fully operaLlonal. Accordlng Lo koh:
Sea denlal means creaLlng a psychologlcal deLerrenL by maklng sure a sLronger naval rlval
never really knows where your subs mlghL be. lL ls classlc asymmeLrlc warfare uLlllzed by Lhe
weak agalnsL Lhe sLrong and someLhlng l Lhlnk Lhe vleLnamese undersLand very well. 1he
quesLlon ls wheLher Lhey can perfecL lL ln Lhe underwaLer dlmenslon.
40

Slemon Wezeman, from Lhe SLockholm lnLernaLlonal eace 8esearch lnsLlLuLe, goes
furLher Lo argue LhaL from Lhe Chlnese polnL of vlew vleLnam's deLerrence ls already
a reallLy. Accordlng Lo Wezeman,
1he vleLnamese have changed Lhe whole scenarlo - Lhey already have Lwo submarlnes, Lhey
have Lhe crews and Lhey appear Lo have Lhe weapons and Lhelr capablllLles and experlence wlll
be growlng from Lhls polnL. lrom Lhe polnL of vlew of Chlnese assumpLlons, Lhe vleLnamese
deLerrenL ls already aL a polnL where lL musL be very real.
41


37
8enedlcLus, 1he Wlldcard: vleLnam's naval ModernlzaLlon and lLs 8ole ln Lhe SouLh Chlna Sea."
38
8oberL larley, lf vleLnam and Chlna WenL Lo War: llve Weapons 8el[lng Should lear," 1be Notloool
lotetest, !uly 12, 2014. hLLp://naLlonallnLeresL.org/feaLure/lf-vleLnam-chlna-wenL-war-flve-weapons-
bel[lng-should-fear-10861.
39
larley, lf vleLnam and Chlna WenL Lo War."
40
1orode, vleLnam bulldlng deLerrenL agalnsL Chlna ln dlspuLed seas wlLh submarlnes."
41
CuoLed ln 1orode, vleLnam bulldlng deLerrenL agalnsL Chlna ln dlspuLed seas wlLh submarlnes."
20
When all of vleLnam's currenL and fuLure arms acqulslLlons are Laken lnLo accounL lL
ls evldenL LhaL vleLnam has Laken ma[or sLeps Lo develop a robusL capaclLy Lo reslsL
marlLlme lnLervenLlon by a hosLlle power. 1hls has Laken Lhe form of developlng a
counLer-lnLervenLlon sLraLegy LhaL lnLegraLes shore-based arLlllery and mlsslle
sysLems, Su-30 mulLlrole [eL flghLers, fasL aLLack crafL, corveLLes and frlgaLes armed
wlLh shlp-Lo-shlp mlsslles, and votsbovyooko-class submarlnes. 1hese weapon
sysLems should enable vleLnam Lo make lL exLremely cosLly for Chlna Lo conducL
marlLlme operaLlons wlLhln a 200-300 nauLlcal mlles band of waLer along vleLnam's
coasL from Lhe vleLnam-Chlna border ln Lhe norLheasL Lo around ua nang ln cenLral
vleLnam lf noL furLher souLh.
42
AddlLlonally, vleLnam also has Lhe capaclLy Lo sLrlke
Chlna's ma[or naval base near Sanya on Palnan lsland and mlllLary faclllLles on
Woody lsland.
Imp||cat|ons for Ch|na-V|etnam ke|at|ons
ln CcLober 2013, Chlna's remler Le keqlng vlslLed vleLnam. remler Ll and hls
vleLnamese hosL rlme MlnlsLer nguyen 1an uung dlscussed fuLure cooperaLlon
across a wlde number of areas and agreed Lo esLabllsh Lhree worklng groups on on-
shore cooperaLlon, moneLary cooperaLlon and marlLlme cooperaLlon. Accordlng Lo
Lhe Chlnese news medla a breakLhrough ln bllaLeral cooperaLlon" had Laken place.
43

remler Ll and rlme MlnlsLer uung also agreed Lo sLrlngenLly lmplemenL" Lhe 2011
AgreemenL on 8aslc rlnclples Culdlng Lhe SeLLlemenL of MarlLlme-8elaLed lssues
and pursue marlLlme cooperaLlon followlng Lhe prlnclples of sLep by sLep" and Lhe
easy-flrsL, dlfflculL-laLer." 1he Lwo leaders reafflrmed Lhe role of Lhe exlsLlng
governmenL-level mechanlsm on boundary and LerrlLory negoLlaLlons, and Lhey
relLeraLed Lhe key polnL ln Lhe 2011 AgreemenL Lo pursue muLually accepLable
fundamenLal soluLlons LhaL do noL affecL each slde's sLance and pollcy."
WlLh respecL Lo LerrlLorlal dlspuLes ln Lhe SouLh Chlna Sea, Lhe Lwo leaders
reafflrmed Lhelr exlsLlng agreemenL Lo lmplemenL Lhe 2002 ueclaraLlon on ConducL
of arLles ln Lhe SouLh Chlna Sea and based on muLual consensus, boLh sldes wlll do
more for Lhe adopLlon of a Code of ConducL" ln Lhe SouLh Chlna Sea. 1he Lwo leaders
furLher agreed Lo exerclse LlghL conLrol of marlLlme dlspuLes and noL Lo make any
move LhaL can furLher compllcaLe or expand dlspuLes." ln Lhls regard boLh sldes
vowed Lo make use of hoL llnes esLabllshed beLween Lhelr mlnlsLrles of forelgn
affalrs and mlnlsLrles of agrlculLure.
1wo monLhs afLer remler Ll's vlslL, vleLnam and Chlna held a plenary meeLlng of Lhe
governmenL-level commlLLee on border and LerrlLory lssues. 1hls meeLlng agreed Lo
seL up a Worklng Croup Lo dlscuss cooperaLlon for muLual developmenL aL sea wlLh
Lhe flrsL sesslon scheduled for 2014.

42
Carl 1hayer, vleLnam Mulllng new SLraLegles Lo ueLer Chlna," 1be ulplomot, May 28, 2014.
hLLp://LhedlplomaL.com/2014/03/vleLnam-mulllng-new-sLraLegles-Lo-deLer-chlna/.
43
lor a dlscusslon of remler's Ll vlslL see: Carlyle A. 1hayer, Le remler mlnlsLre chlnols Ll keqlang
au vleLnam," toJe quadrlmesLrlelle n1, cycle 2013-2014, Asla CenLre, CbservaLolre Asle du Sud-esL
(arls), Mars 2014, 13-13.
hLLp://www.cenLreasla.eu/slLes/defaulL/flles/publlcaLlons_pdf/eLude_eLude_quadrlmesLrlelle_n_1_[a
nv2014.pdf.
21
Olltlq ctlsls, Moy-Ioly 2014. ln early May 2014, Chlna deployed a mega ollrlg ln
waLers formlng parL of vleLnam's LLZ. 1hls acLlon was unexpecLed and provocaLlve.
Chlna's acLlons were unexpecLed because Lhere was no palpable provocaLlon by
vleLnam LhaL would [usLlfy Chlna's acLlons.
44

1he Lwo sldes already had adopLed prlnclples and mechanlsms Lo deal wlLh Lhe mosL
senslLlve lssue ln Lhelr bllaLeral relaLlons. Chlna's acLlons were provocaLlve because
Lhls was Lhe flrsL Llme Chlna had placed an ollrlg ln Lhe LLZ of anoLher sLaLe wlLhouL
lLs prlor permlsslon. lurLher, an armada of eople's LlberaLlon Army navy warshlps,
CoasL Cuard vessels and flshlng boaLs accompanled Lhe ollrlg. 1he slze of Lhe armada
rapldly lncreased from flfLy Lo over one hundred shlps ln a few days. Chlna also
dlspaLched mlllLary and oLher alrcrafL.
When vleLnam responded by sendlng ouL lLs much smaller CoasL Cuard vessels Lo
confronL Lhe Chlnese and order Lhem ouL of vleLnam's LLZ, Chlna responded
aggresslvely. lLs larger shlps dellberaLely rammed vleLnamese shlps ln an efforL Lo
lnfllcL sufflclenL damage Lo cause Lhem Lo reLlre. Chlnese CoasL Cuard vessels
dellberaLely LargeLed Lhe radlo communlcaLlons anLennae on vleLnamese shlps wlLh
Lhelr hlgh-powered waLer cannons. llnally, Chlna Look Lhe wraps off Lhe cannons and
oLher weapons on Lhelr shlps and dellberaLely almed Lhem aL vleLnamese CoasL
Cuard vessels LhaL kepL Lhelr armamenLs under cover. Chlnese flshlng boaLs, LhaL
formed parL of Lhe armada, [olned ln Lhe lnLlmldaLlon. ln one case a Chlnese flshlng
boaL rammed and capslzed a vleLnamese flshlng boaL.
ln response Lo Chlna's acLlons vleLnam adopLed a very conclllaLory posLure. vleLnam
called ln valn for Lhe acLlvaLlon of lLs hoL llne wlLh Chlna and for Chlna Lo recelve a
speclal envoy Lo dlscuss how Lo manage lf noL resolve currenL Lenslons. vleLnam
clalms lL made over LhlrLy dlplomaLlc overLures Lo Chlna buL recelved no reply. Chlna,
however, seL four precondlLlons: vleLnam musL sLop lLs harassmenL of Lhe ollrlg,
vleLnam musL drop lLs soverelgnLy clalms over Lhe aracels, vleLnam musL noL
pursue legal acLlon agalnsL Chlna, and vleLnam musL noL lnvolve Lhlrd parLles, such
as Lhe unlLed SLaLes.
lf sLraLeglc LrusL ls characLerlzed as a relaLlonshlp beLween Lwo sLaLes LhaL regularly
lnLeracL overLlme and resulLs ln hablLs of consulLaLlon and greaLer predlcLablllLy ln
Lhe behavlor of each slde, Lhen Lhe flrsL casualLy of Lhe May-!uly ollrlg confronLaLlon
has been vleLnam's loss of sLraLeglc LrusL ln Chlna.
43

Cn !une 18, ln Lhe mldsL of Lhls crlsls, Chlna's SLaLe Counclllor ?ang !lechl vlslLed
Panol Lo aLLend Lhe long-scheduled annual meeLlng of Lhe !olnL SLeerlng CommlLLee
for 8llaLeral CooperaLlon. 1hls was a slgnlflcanL lndlcaLor LhaL Chlna was wllllng Lo
engage wlLh vleLnam. Cn Lhe surface, ?ang's vlslL was anyLhlng buL conclllaLory," he

44
Carl 1hayer, Chlna's Cll 8lg CamblL: SouLh Chlna Sea Came-Changer?," 1be ulplomot, May 12,
2014. hLLp://LhedlplomaL.com/2014/03/chlnas-oll-rlg-gamblL-souLh-chlna-sea-game-changer/.
45
Carlyle A. 1hayer, "Chlna-vleLnam Cllrlg Crlsls and SLraLeglc 1rusL," cbloo-u5 locos, !une 30, 2014.
hLLp://www.chlnausfocus.com/forelgn-pollcy/chlna-vleLnam-ollrlg-crlsls-and-sLraLeglc-LrusL-2/.
22
beraLed hls hosLs for 'hyplng up' Lhe slLuaLlon" and warned blunLly LhaL Chlna
would 'Lake all necessary measures' Lo proLecL Lhe rlg."
46

A close readlng of offlclal sLaLemenLs by vleLnam's MlnlsLry of lorelgn Affalrs
lndlcaLes LhaL when ?ang meL parLy SecreLary Ceneral 1rong Lhere was general
agreemenL Lo conLlnue dlscusslng ways Lo ease Lenslons and solve sea-relaLed
lssues."
47
AfLer ?ang's vlslL, Lhe Chlnese medla porLrayed Lhe ouLcome ln poslLlve
Lerms.
48

Cn !uly 13, Chlna announced LhaL lL was wlLhdrawlng Lhe P?Su 981 from vleLnamese
waLers and, ln a separaLe sLaLemenL, releaslng LhlrLeen vleLnamese flshermen lL had
arresLed earller. 1hls slgnalled Lhe end of confronLaLlon aL sea and a shlfL Lo
dlplomacy.
49
ln AugusL, Chlna hosLed a vlslL by a speclal envoy of Lhe SecreLary
Ceneral of Lhe vleLnam CommunlsL arLy, senlor ollLburo member Le Pong Anh.
1he ollrlg crlsls has demonsLraLed LhaL vleLnam ls capable of sLandlng up Lo Chlna
and showlng resolve. vleLnam ls unllkely Lo foreclose any opLlons lncludlng Laklng
legal acLlon agalnsL Chlna. lL ls ln vleLnam's lnLeresL Lo hold Lhls opLlon ln reserve.
vleLnam's cauLlous leaders are as unllkely Lo buckle under Lo Chlna, as Lhey are Lo
lurch lnLo an allgnmenL wlLh Lhe unlLed SLaLes. vleLnam, however, wlll deepen lLs
comprehenslve parLnershlp wlLh Lhe unlLed SLaLes and sLrengLhen Lles wlLh !apan
and lndla as parL of lLs long-sLandlng sLraLegy of mulLllaLerallzlng lLs exLernal
relaLlons.
1here ls more llkely Lo be conLlnulLy ln vleLnamese forelgn pollcy Lhan change.
vleLnam wlll remaln fully commlLLed Lo ASLAn and ASLAn's supporL for a blndlng
code of conducL ln Lhe SouLh Chlna Sea. AL Lhe same Llme, vleLnam wlll aLLempL Lo
re-engage wlLh Chlna ln an efforL Lo repalr Lhelr damaged bllaLeral relaLlons and
resLore sLraLeglc LrusL.

46
ClLed ln Carl 1hayer, vleLnam, Chlna and Lhe Cll 8lg Crlsls: Who 8llnked?," 1be ulplomot, AugusL 4,
2014. hLLp://LhedlplomaL.com/2014/08/vleLnam-chlna-and-Lhe-oll-rlg-crlsls-who-bllnked/.
47
1hayer, vleLnam, Chlna and Lhe Cll 8lg Crlsls: Who 8llnked?"
48
Shannon 1lezzl, Chlnese Medla: ln vleLnam ?ang Calls 'rodlgal Son" Lo 8eLurn Pome," 1be
ulplomot, !une 12, 2014. hLLp://LhedlplomaL.com/2014/06/chlnese-medla-ln-vleLnam-yang-calls-
prodlgal-son-Lo-reLurn-home.
49
Carl 1hayer, 4 8easons Chlna 8emoved Cll 8lg P?S?-981 Sooner 1han lanned," 1be ulplomot, !uly
22, 2014. hLLp://LhedlplomaL.com/2014/07/4-reasons-chlna-removed-oll-rlg-hysy-981-sooner-Lhan-
planned/.