PERSEPSI DAN PEMBUATAN

KEPUTUSAN INDIVIDUAL
marwansyah@polban.ac.id
2014

Learning Objectives
1. Define perception and explain the factors that influence it.
2. Explain attribution theory and list the three determinants of attribution.
3. Identify the shortcuts individuals use in making judgments about others.
4. Explain the link between perception and decision-making.
5. Apply the rational model of decision-making and contrast it with
bounded rationality and intuition.
6. List and explain the common decision biases or errors.
7. Explain how individual differences and organizational constraints affect
decision-making.
8. Contrast the three ethical decision-criteria.
9. Define creativity and discuss the three-component model of creativity.

Perception and OB
Perception is a process by which individuals
organize and interpret their sensory impressions
in order to give meaning to their environment.
It is important to the study of OB because
peoples behaviors are based on their perception
of what reality is, not on reality itself.
Factors that influence Perception
Attribution Theory and
Three determinants of attribution
Attribution theory suggests that when we observe an
individuals behavior, we attempt to determine
whether it was internally or externally caused.
Determination depends on three factors:
Distinctiveness: shows different behaviors in
different situations
Consensus: response in the same as others to same
situation
Consistency: response in the same way over time

Determinants of attribution
Clarification of the differences between internal
and external causation:
Internally caused - those that are believed to
be under the personal control of the
individual.
Externally caused - resulting from outside
causes.
Attribution Theory
E X H I B I T 6-2
Attribution errors and biases
Fundamental Attribution Error
A tendency to underestimate the influence
of external factors and overestimate the
influence of internal or personal factors
when making judgments about behavior
of others.
Attribution errors and biases
Self-serving Bias
The tendency for individuals
to attribute their own
successes to internal factors
while putting the blame for
failures on external factors.
Shortcuts individuals use in making
judgments about others
Selective Perception
Any characteristic that makes a person,
object, or event stand out will increase the
probability that it will be perceived.
Since we cant observe everything going on
about us, we engage in selective perception.
A classic example:
Dearborn and Simon
Shortcuts individuals use in making
judgments about others
Halo Effect
The halo effect occurs when we draw a
general impression on the basis of a single
characteristic.
The reality of the halo effect was confirmed
in a classic study.
Shortcuts individuals use in making
judgments about others
Contrast Effects
We do not evaluate a person in isolation.
Our reaction to one person is influenced by
other persons we have recently encountered.
For example, an interview situation in which one
sees a pool of job applicants can distort perception.
Distortions in any given candidates evaluation can
occur as a result of his or her place in the interview
schedule.
Shortcuts individuals use in making
judgments about others
Stereotyping
Judging someone on the basis of our perception of
the group to which he or she belongs.
This is a means of simplifying a complex world,
and it permits us to maintain consistency.
From a perceptual standpoint, if people expect to
see these stereotypes, that is what they will
perceive.
Shortcuts individuals use in making
judgments about others
Applications of Shortcuts in Organizations
Employment Interview
Evidence indicates that interviewers make
perceptual judgments that are often
inaccurate.
Agreement among interviewers is often
poor.
Shortcuts individuals use in making
judgments about others
Applications of Shortcuts in Organizations
Performance Expectations
Evidence demonstrates that people will attempt
to validate their perceptions of reality, even
when those perceptions are faulty.
Self-fulfilling prophecy or Pygmalion effect
characterizes the fact that peoples expectations
determine their behavior. Expectations become
reality.
Shortcuts individuals use in making
judgments about others
Performance Evaluation
An employees performance appraisal is very much
dependent on the perceptual process.
Many jobs are evaluated in subjective terms.
Subjective measures are, by definition, judgmental.
What the evaluator perceives to be good or bad
employee characteristics or behaviors will
significantly influence the outcome of the appraisal.
Perception and Decision-making
Top managers determine goals, products to offer, how
to finance operations, or locate a new plant.
Middle- and lower-level managers determine
production schedules, select employees, and decide
about pay raises.
Non-managerial employees make decisions to come to
work on any given day, the effort to put forward at
work, and to comply with requests made by the boss.
Perception and Decision-making
Empowering non-managerial employees with job-
related decision-making historically reserved for
managers.
Decision-making occurs as a reaction to a problem.
Every decision requires interpretation and evaluation
of information.
Alternatives will be developed, and the strengths and
weaknesses of each will need to be evaluated.
How individual differences and organizational
constraints affect decision-making
Personality
Conscientiousness
Achievement-Striving
Dutifulness
Gender
Mental Ability
How individual differences and organizational
constraints affect decision-making
Cultural Differences
Performance Evaluations
Reward Systems
Formal Regulations
System Imposed Time Constraints
Historical Precedents

Creativity and three-component model of creativity
CREATIVITY
Creative
Thinking
Skills
Expertise
Intrinsic
Task
Motivation
kReAtiViTAs
The ability to produce novel and useful
ideas.
Proses penciptaan produk, gagasan,
atau prosedur baru dan orisinal, dan
secara potensial relevan atau berguna
bagi sebuah organisasi.
Beberapa Fakta Tentang
Pengambilan Keputusan (1)
Membuat keputusan adalah salah
satu kegiatan manajerial yg paling
penting.
Secara implisit, orang cenderung
memilih opsi favorit dalam tahap
awal proses pengambilan keputusan.
Beberapa Fakta Tentang
Pengambilan Keputusan (2)
Keputusan seseorang bisa menjadi bias
karena tendensi untuk tidak
mempertimbangkan semua informasi yg
relevan.
Keputusan kelompok umumnya lebih baik
dilakukan terhadap complex decision tasks,
sementara keputusan individual biasanya
lebih efisien.
Keputusan (decision)
Sebuah pilihan dari dua atau lebih
alternatif (a choice from two or more
alternatives).
Proses Pengambilan-Keputusan
Serangkaian langkah yg meliputi identifikasi
masalah, pemilihan satu alternatif, dan
evaluasi keefektifan keputusan
(A set of steps including identifying a
problem, selecting an alternative, and
evaluating the decisions effectiveness)
Masalah (problem)
Kesenjangan antara kondisi saat ini
dan kondisi yang diinginkan
(a discrepancy between an existing and
a desired state of affairs).
TIGA Komponen Keputusan
1. KRITERIA: standar yg digunakan pembuat
keputusan utk mengevaluasi alternatif. Bisa juga
disebut kepentingan.
2. ALTERNATIF: tindakan spesifik atau pilihan yg
dipertimbangkan.
3. KEPERCAYAAN TTG SEBAB AKIBAT: pengetahuan
(kognisi) yg menghubungkan alternatif tertentu
dgn kriteria tertentu (disebut model, teori,
kepercayaan, atau asumsi).
The Decision Making Process Map...
Langkah-langkah dalam MODEL
PENGAMBILAN KEPUTUSAN RASIONAL
1. Definisikan masalah,
2. Identifikasikan kriteria,
3. Alokasikan bobot untuk tiap kriteria,
4. Kembangkan alternatif,
5. Evaluasi alternatif,
6. Pilih alternatif terbaik.
Keputusan Rasional dibuat berdasarkan
asumsi-asumsi berikut:
Masalah jelas dan tidak ambigu.
Yang ingin dicapai adalah satu tujuan yg
didefinisikan secara jelas.
Semua alternatif dan konsekuensi diketahui.
Preferensi jelas.
Preferensi konstan dan stabil.
Tidak ada kendala biaya dan waktu.
Most decisions in the real world dont follow the
rational model.

MODEL RASIONAL dalam
PENGAMBILAN KEPUTUSAN
Problem
Identifikasikan dan
Definisikan Masalah
Kembangkan
Alternatif
A
1
A
2
A
3
A
4
A
n
Evaluasi
Alternatif
+
A
1
A
1
A
2
A
2
A
n
A
n
Criteria
Beri Bobot
Kriteria
T E C H
Tetapkan Kriteria
Keputusan
Choice
Buat Keputusan
Optimal
Problem
Identifikasikan dan
Definisikan Masalah
Para wiraniaga saya
memerlukan komputer baru
T E C H
Tetapkan Kriteria
Keputusan
Harga
Berat
Garansi
Tipe layar
Keandalan
Ukuran layar
Criteria
Beri Bobot
Kriteria
A
Keandalan
Ukuran layar
Garansi
Berat
Harga
Jenis layar
10
8
5
5
4
3
Kembangkan
alternatif
Acer Compaq NEC
Fujitsu Sony
Toshiba Dell
Evaluasi
alternatif
Acer Compaq NEC
Fujitsu Sony
Toshiba Dell
Choice
Buat Keputusan
Optimal
Acer Compaq NEC
Fujitsu Sony
Toshiba Dell
Implementasi
alternatif
A
Nilai berdasarkan kriteria
Model
Kean-
dalan
Ukuran
layar
Garansi Berat Harga
Tipe
layar
Acer
Travelmate
8 3 5 10 3 5
Compaq
Pressario
8 5 10 5 6 5
NEC Versa 10 8 5 10 3 10
Fujitsu
Lifebook
8 5 5 10 3 10
Sony Vaio
6 8 5 10 6 10
Toshiba
Satellite
10 8 5 5 3 10
Dell
2 10 5 10 10 10
Evaluasi laptop berdasarkan
kriteria dan bobot
Model
Kean-
dalan
Ukuran
layar
Ga-
ransi
Berat Harga
Tipe
layar
Total
Acer
Travelmate
80 24 25 50 12 15 206
Compaq
Pressario
80 40 50 25 24 15 234
NEC Versa 100 64 25 50 12 30 281
Fujitsu
Lifebook
80 40 25 50 12 30 237
Sony Vaio 60 64 25 50 24 30 253
Toshiba
Satellite
100 64 25 25 12 30 256
Dell 20 80 25 50 40 30 245
Contoh Teknik Evaluasi Alternatif:
Analitycal Hierarchy Matrix
0 0 0
0
0 0
1
1
1
1 1
1
A B C D
Alternative A
Alternative B
Alternative C
Alternative D
Alternatives
0
2
3
Row
Sum
4
th

2
nd

1
st

Rank
1 3
rd

Thomas Saaty's
Analytical Hierarchy Matrix
Cantumkan alternatif dlm kolom dan baris spt dalam matriks.
Mulai dr Alternatif A, bergeraklah ke setiap kolom dan
bandingkan tiap alternatif dgn alternatif lainnya.
Bila alternatif yg sedang dipertimbangkan lebih baik dari yg
lain, berilah alternatif itu skor 1.
Bila alternatif lebih rendahnya nilainya dari yg lain, berilah
alternatif itu skor 0.
Tambahkan skor utk tiap baris/alternatif; skor tertinggi adalah
alternatif yg dinilai paling baik berdasarkan kriteria yg Anda
gunakan. Dlm matriks di atas, Alternatif C memiliki skor
tertinggi. Jadi, inilah alternatif yg dinilai paling baik.
RASIONALITAS TERBATAS
Rasionalitas Terbatas
Individu membuat keputusan dgn membangun model
yg disederhanakan, yg mengekstrak unsur-unsur
esensial dari masalah tanpa memandang seluruh
kompleksitas masalah tsb.
Satisficing
Mengidentifikasikan sebuah solusi yang lumayan
baik (good enough).
MODEL RASIONALITAS TERBATAS
Tentukan
kebutuhan
utk membuat
keputusan
Sederhanakan
Masalah
Tetapkan
Kriteria yg
Memuaskan
Identifikasikan
alternatif yg
terbatas
Bandingkan
alternatif
dgn kriteria
Perluas
Pencarian
Alternatif
Pilih Alternatif
Pertama yang
Cukup Baik
Ada
alternatif yg
memuaskan?
Ya
Tidak
The common decision biases or errors
Overconfidence Bias
Individuals whose intellectual and interpersonal
abilities are weakest are most likely to
overestimate their performance and ability.
Anchoring Bias
Fixating on initial information as a starting point
and failing to adequately adjust for subsequent
information.
The common decision biases or errors
Confirmation Bias
Type of selective perception.
Seek out information that reaffirms past
choices, and discount information that
contradicts past judgments.
Availability Bias
Tendency for people to base judgments on
information that is readily available.
The common decision biases or errors
Escalation of Commitment
Staying with a decision even when there is
clear evidence that its wrong.
Randomness Error
Decision-making becomes impaired when
we try to create meaning out of random
events.
The common decision biases or errors
Risk Aversion
Risk-averse employees will stick with the
established way of doing their jobs, rather than
taking a chance on innovative or creative
methods.
Hindsight Bias
Tendency to believe falsely that one has
accurately predicted the outcome of an event,
after that outcome is actually known.
Reducing Biases and Errors
Pembuatan Keputusan Secara Intuitif
(Intuitive Decision Making)
Suatu proses bawah-sadar
(subconscious) dalam membuat
keputusan berdasarkan pengalaman
dan accumulated judgment.
Secara sadar tidak bersandar pada
proses berpikir rasional atau linier.
Rational model of decision-making
and intuition
Intuition
Intuition occurs outside conscious thought; it relies on
holistic associations, or links between disparate pieces
of information; its fast; and its affectively charged,
meaning it usually engages the emotions.
The key is neither to abandon nor rely solely on
intuition but to supplement it with evidence and good
judgment.
Aspek-aspek Intuisi
Managers make
decisions on ethical
values or culture
Values or ethics-
based decisions
INTUITION
Managers make decisions
based on their past
experiences
Experience-based
decisions
Affect-initiated
decisions
Cognitive-based
decisions
Subconscious mental
processing
Managers use data from
subconscious mind to help them
make decisions
Managers make decisions
based on skills, knowledge, and
training
Managers make
decisions based on
feelings or emotion
Sumber: L.A. Burke & M.K. Miller. 1999
How common is
intuitive decision making?
Sebuah survei thd manajer dan karyawan
mengungkapkan bahwa sepertiga dari
mereka menyandarkan diri pada intuisi,
atau gut feeling, ketimbang pengambilan
keputusan secara rasional (kognitif).
Perbandingan Tipe Thinking dan Feeling
Characteristic Thinking types Feeling types
Focus Logic of situation, truth,
organization principles
Human values and needs,
harmony, feelings, emotions
Time orientation Past, present, future Past
Work environment Businesslike, impersonal, treat
others fairly, well organized
Naturally friendly, personal
emphasizes harmony, care and
concern for others
Strengths Good at logical organizations,
tends to be firm and tough-minded,
rational, objective, predicts logical
results of decisions
Enjoys pleasing others,
sympathetic, loyal, draws out
the feelings of others, takes
interest in people as people
Possible weaknesses Overly analytical, unemotional, too
serious, often rigid, may try to
impose ideas
Sentimental, may postpone
unpleasant task, may avoid
conflict
Perbandingan Tipe Sensing dan Intuitive
Characteristic Sensation types Intuitive types
Focus Details, practical, action-oriented,
wants to get things done quickly
Looks for patterns, likes ideas,
tends to be innovative and like
planning
Time orientation Present, live life as it is Future achievement emphasizing
change and rearranging
Work
environment
Pays attention to detail and patient
with them, does not make factual
errors
Looks at the big picture,
patient with complexity, risk
takers
Strengths Pragmatic, results oriented, objective,
competitive
Original, imaginative, creative,
idealistic
Possible
weaknesses
May avoid risks, be impatient with
delays, decide too quickly, overlook
long run, oversimplify a complex task
May avoid follow-through, can
make errors of fact, may be
impractical
PRAKONDISI
PENYELESAIAN MASALAH
Ada KESENJANGAN
Ada KESADARAN ttg kesenjangan
Ada MOTIVASI
Ada KEMAMPUAN dan SUMBER
DAYA
Reaksi terhadap masalah
Complacency: tak melihat tanda-tanda
Defensive avoidance: abaikan pentingnya masalah
atau abaikan tanggung jawab utk bertindak
rasionalisasi (Tak mungkin terjadi pd saya)
penundaan (Bisa diurus nanti )
pengalihan (Bukan urusan saya)
Panic
Deciding to decide
Bagaimana Menemukan Masalah?
PENYIMPANGAN DARI
PENGALAMAN MASA LALU
PENYIMPANGAN DARI
RENCANA
ORANG atau PIHAK LAIN
KINERJA PESAING
Three ethical decision-criteria
Utilitarian criterion--decisions are made solely on the
basis of their outcomes or consequences.
Focus on rights--calls on individuals to make
decisions consistent with fundamental liberties and
privileges as set forth in documents such as the Bill of
Rights.
Justice--impose and enforce rules fairly and
impartially to ensure or an equitable distribution of
benefits and costs.
Ethics and National Culture
There are no global ethical standards.
The ethical principles of global organizations
that reflect and respect local cultural norms
are necessary for high standards and
consistent practices.