In Ukraine, the Old World Order ends in farce

Putin may in fact have done more to make Ukraine ready for the modern world
than twenty years of EU preaching could ever have achieved. Ukraine has within
reach the tools with which to define its own destiny. It will succeed if it can
modernize around the technologies offered by the global community, including
China.

By John Kornblum in Judy Dempseys Strategic Europe

Dont you love farce?
My fault, I fear.
I thought that youd want what I want.
Sorry, my dear.
But where are the clowns?
Quick, send in the clowns.
Dont bother, theyre here.
Stephen Sondheim

Six months after Russian intervention in Ukraine began, hopes for long-term democracy
and integration between Russia and the West are near total collapse. A conflict on Europes
periphery has ignited crosscurrents of violence and confusion that are already bordering on
farce. Neither side seems to know what it is doing. Clowns are everywhere.

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There seems to be no central point for restoring order to match former U.S. president Bill
Clintons decision to jump into Bosnia in 1995. A new Dayton Agreement is beyond
imagination. No Richard Holbrookethe key negotiator who helped achieve that peace
accordis waiting in the wings. Slowly, observers are coming to realize that a chapter of
history ended on the streets of Kiev.

One reason for the rage causing this tragicomedy is that old categories dont fit anymore.
The radical integration of the world through high-speed information networks and modern
logistics is redrawing the global geostrategic map before our eyes. Normal people, rich and
poor, are increasingly worried that they are losing control of their destinies to something
called globalization. Russian nationalists and Ukrainian freedom fighters are two sides of
the same coin.

In fact, Ukraine is likely to come out ahead when this conflict finally winds down. The
countrys central position between the EU, Russia, and Central Asia and its budding civil
society are tailor-made for the new era ahead. Ukraine has integrated many European and
Central Asian nationalities and is already a part of the West in a way that Russia could
never be. Russian aggression has provided Ukraine with one advantage that it was
previously lackingnational purpose.

Putin may in fact have done more to make Ukraine ready for the modern world than
twenty years of EU preaching could ever have achieved. Ukraine has within reach the tools
with which to define its own destiny. It will succeed if it can modernize around the
technologies offered by the global community, including China.

Russias long-term dilemma will be not only that Putin has destroyed cooperation with the
West but also that he has opened Central Asia and Eastern Europe to a larger role by the
Chinese. The real dynamic in this region in the future is likely to be a German-Chinese one,
with Russia playing only a secondary regional role.

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