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3&4,( 5"1*-# &'( 6.&(,2,- 7#,-89'"4

:;<;






Costs anu Benefits of Eaily Waining
Systems
!"#$% &'()*+ ",% -."%$/$* 0+$*12,'#
!"#$%&'(#)%"
CosLbeneflL analysls, used wlLh care, ls a useful Lool Lo help LranslaLe spendlng lnLo effecLlve dlsasLer
prevenLlon. World 8ank (2010), ln Lhelr comprehenslve reporL on naLural Pazards, unnaLural ulsasLers,
ldenLlfy Lhree speclflc spendlng lLems deslrable for dlsasLer prevenLlon - early warnlng sysLems, crlLlcal
lnfrasLrucLure and envlronmenLal buffers. Pazard warnlngs are of greaL beneflL because early warnlngs
save llves and properLy. CrlLlcal lnfrasLrucLure reduces loss of llfe and properLy durlng and afLer a
dlsasLer. WhaL ls crlLlcal, however, depends on Lhe slLuaLlon and Lhe hazard. 8rldges and roads used as
evacuaLlon rouLes ln Lhe paLh of hurrlcanes, schools locaLed above flood waLers LhaL provlde shelLer,
hosplLals LhaL are earLhquake reslsLanL are all examples of crlLlcal lnfrasLrucLure relaLed Lo speclflc
hazards and dlsasLer rlsk reducLlon. lnvesLmenL ln Lhls lnfrasLrucLure provldes anclllary beneflLs whlch
offseL Lhe cosLs, ln Lhls case, everyday LransporLaLlon, educaLlon and healLh care. LnvlronmenLal buffers
offer proLecLlon from hazards wlLhln physlcal llmlLaLlons such as dense vegeLaLlon for flood and eroslon
conLrol or coral reefs and sand dunes Lo proLecL agalnsL sLorm surges. lL ls generally cheaper Lo proLecL
Lhan resLore Lhem, alLhough whaL Lo proLecL ls noL always obvlous.
Whlle evldence on Lhe cosLs and beneflLs of dlsasLer rlsk reducLlon conslsLenLly shows LhaL lnvesLmenL ln
early warnlng sysLems can save llves and help proLecL properLy, mosL prevenLlve measures focus on
crlLlcal lnfrasLrucLure Lo prevenL dlsasLers such as flood conLrol sysLems, sLrengLhenlng bulldlng codes,
consLrucLlon of shelLers, and proLecLlng envlronmenLal buffers. CfLen Lhese prevenLaLlve measures
serve dlfferenL people ln dlfferenL ways. lnvesLmenL ln crlLlcal lnfrasLrucLure may noL dlrecLly lmprove
Lhe securlLy of Lhe pooresL LhaL may be dlsplaced by consLrucLlon pro[ecLs Lo more marglnal areas.
ApproprlaLe lnvesLmenL ln all Lhree areas, early warnlng, crlLlcal lnfrasLrucLure and envlronmenLal
buffers, ls llkely Lhe besL approach slnce nelLher ma[or lnfrasLrucLure lnvesLmenL ln flood conLrol
measures, nor a flood early warnlng sysLem can averL a dlsasLer compleLely. 1ogeLher, Lhey can,
however, greaLly reduce loss of llfe and llvellhoods. 1hus subsLanLlal beneflLs of early warnlng are ofLen
besL reallzed when coupled wlLh lnfrasLrucLure and oLher prevenLaLlve lnvesLmenL. ln Pong kong, for
example, houslng lmprovemenLs mean LhaL shelLerlng Lhe populaLlon aL home ls now Lhe besL acLlon Lo
Lake ln response Lo a Lroplcal cyclone. Pere, early warnlng ensures LhaL people have Lhe Llme Lo reLurn
safely Lo Lhelr homes uLlllzlng an adapLlve publlc LransporLaLlon sysLem LhaL ls responslve Lo Lhe
warnlngs. 1lmely warnlngs, effecLlve communlcaLlon and response permlL Lhe Pong kong economy Lo
rebound qulckly from such hazards (8ox l).
We know LhaL we are capable of reduclng Lhe deaLh Loll even ln poor counLrles, movlng food averLs a
famlne desplLe droughLs and early warnlng reduces deaLhs from sLorms and floods. Powever, ln
1

general, Lhe evldence suggesLs LhaL we Lend Lo spend more on rellef Lhan on prevenLlon and LhaL Lhls ls
a publlc preference desplLe Lhe evldence LhaL lndlcaLes lnvesLmenL ln prevenLlon ls more valuable Lhan
spendlng on rellef (Pealy and MalhoLra 2009). When spendlng on prevenLaLlve measures does occur, lL
ls ofLen blased agalnsL Lhose LhaL have llLLle economlc clouL and pollLlcal volce wlLh Lhe effecL LhaL large
proLecLlve lnfrasLrucLure lnvesLmenLs ofLen resulL ln Lhe dlslocaLlon of Lhe poor resldenLs Lo oLher rlsk
prone parLs of a clLy (World 8ank 2010). ln Lhls case, early warnlng sysLems raLher Lhan proLecLlve
lnfrasLrucLure may serve Lhe poor beLLer.

*%+ !, -$%.)(/0 12(0%"3 4/$")"5 63$7)(3 )" 8%"5 9%"5
1he Lroplcal cyclone warnlng servlce of Lhe Pong kong CbservaLory (PkC) has evolved lnLo a numbered sysLem: Lhe
SLandby Slgnal no. 1 ls lssued whenever a Lroplcal cyclone ls wlLhln 800 km of Pong kong and may affecL Lhe LerrlLory
laLer, Slgnals no. 3 and no. 8 warn Lhe publlc of sLrong and gale/sLorm force wlnds ln Lhe clLy respecLlvely, Slgnal no.
9 slgnlfles lncreaslng gale or sLorm force wlnds, whlle no. 10 warns of hurrlcane force wlnds. ln vlew of Lhe sLrlngenL
bulldlng codes ln Pong kong, home ls generally consldered Lhe safesL place for people Lo Lake refuge from a Lroplcal
cyclone. When Slgnal no. 8 ls lssued, Lhe PkC advlses Lhe publlc Lo sLay home or reLurn home. Cver Llme, a LradlLlon
of socleLal response has emerged ln whlch buslnesses and schools would close down when Lhe Lroplcal cyclone gale
warnlng slgnal no. 8 ls holsLed.
1he Lroplcal cyclone warnlng sysLem has been ln use for many years and Lhe publlc ls already famlllar wlLh lL.
1ogeLher wlLh Lhe wellcoordlnaLed response acLlons Laken by rellef agencles, Lhe sysLem has proved very effecLlve
ln reduclng Lhe loss of llfe (graph below) and properLy due Lo Lroplcal cyclones.

Figure Number of people killed or missing due to tropical cyclones in Hong Kong since 1960
Wal and Wong, 2010

2

Pow do we declde on Lhe approprlaLe lnvesLmenL ln prevenLaLlve measures? CosLbeneflL analysls says
LhaL an lnvesLmenL whose beneflLs exceed Lhe cosLs should be underLaken, and lf Lhere are compeLlng
proposals, Lhe one wlLh Lhe hlghesL beneflL Lo cosLs should be preferred. 1he dllemma ls LhaL lL ls
necessary Lo value Lhe llves saved ln order Lo arrlve aL Lhe rlghL lnvesLmenL cholce. Cne approach,
proposed by Cropper and Sahlm (2009), calculaLes Lhe reducLlon ln ln[urles and deaLhs ln Lerms of
quallLyad[usLed llfe years (CAL?). 1hen Lhe cosL of prevenLlon mlnus Lhe nonhealLh beneflLs of
prevenLlon can be dlvlded by Lhe CAL?s saved Lo compare cosL per CAL? across all pollcles Lo encourage
conslsLency ln declslonmaklng (World 8ank 2010). 1hls approach would be parLlcularly useful ln
evaluaLlng Lhe effecLlveness of early warnlng sysLems slnce Lhey have Lhe blggesL lmpacL ln reduclng loss
of llfe and ln[ury. noL counLlng Lhe value of llves saved lmpllclLly puLs a zero value on llfe and
undermlnes prevenLlon. lor example, only by lncludlng Lhe value of llves saved ln 1urkey, dld prevenLlve
measures such as earLhquake sLrengLhenlng of aparLmenLs and schools pass Lhe cosLbeneflL LesL (World
8ank 2010).
ln Lhe followlng secLlons we descrlbe Lhe beneflLs of early warnlng, we Lhen conslder ln more deLall Lhe
cosLs and beneflLs of warnlngs where false alarms and poor declslons can lncur large cosLs Lo lndlvlduals
and governmenLs, and flnally we provlde some examples of cosLeffecLlve warnlng sysLems.
:/$02 4/$")"5 62;#3<;
Larly warnlngs glve people Llme Lo flee from a flash flood, Lornado or Lsunaml, enable local auLhorlLles
Lo evacuaLe or shelLer large numbers of people ln advance of a Lroplcal cyclone or hurrlcane, provlde
lnformaLlon on Lhe occurrence of a publlc healLh hazard, and enable a fasLer response Lo problems of
food and waLer lnsecurlLy. Warnlngs lssued well before an evenL also enable people Lo proLecL some
properLy and lnfrasLrucLure. lor example, reservolr operaLors could reduce waLer levels gradually Lo
accommodaLe lncomlng flood waLers, local auLhorlLles could poslLlon equlpmenL for emergency
response, ald agencles can moblllze sooner, people could shuLLer wlndows and relnforce roofLops,
hosplLals could be prepared Lo recelve more paLlenLs. ln general, Lhe longer Lhe lead Llme, Lhe greaLer
amounL of properLy and lnfrasLrucLure LhaL can be proLecLed. Powever, wlLh longer lead Llmes comes
greaLer rlsk of false alarms and lncurred cosLs. lor example, reduclng waLer levels lf Lhe predlcLed flood
waLers do noL replenlsh Lhe reservolr may resulL ln slgnlflcanL soclal and economlc losses ln Lerms of Lhe
supply of hydroelecLrlc power or poLable waLer.
1here ls no doubL LhaL effecLlve early warnlng sysLems have subsLanLlally reduced deaLhs and ln[urles
from severe weaLher evenLs. MorLallLy ln Lhe unlLed SLaLes decllned slgnlflcanLly over Lhe years because
lLs early warnlng sysLems for recurrlng hazards such as llghLnlng, floods, sLorms, and heaL waves are
conLlnually lmprovlng: morLallLy fell by 43 percenL and ln[urles by 40 percenL ln 13,000 Lornadoes from
1986 Lo 1999 Lhanks Lo more Llmely warnlngs LhaL enabled people Lo Lake shelLer (1elsberg and Welher
2009). Larly warnlngs of floodlng rlsk have been shown Lo be effecLlve ln reduclng floodrelaLed deaLhs
(Malllay eL al. 1997). lor example, Lhere ls a dlfference beLween Lhe 19921994 floodlng along Lhe 8hlne
and Meuse rlvers and Lhe 1993 floodlng along Lhe same rlvers (LsLrela eL al. 2001). 1he Lwo floods had
slmllar characLerlsLlcs, boLh were caused by perslsLenL heavy preclplLaLlon. 1en people losL Lhelr llves
and over uS$900 mllllon ln damages occurred durlng Lhe flrsL evenL, whlle Lhe economlc cosL was
3

reduced by almosL a half and no llves were losL durlng Lhe 1993 flood due Lo awareness and behavloral
changes.
PeaL healLh warnlng sysLems
1
have proven Lo be parLlcularly effecLlve ln reduclng morLallLy (Lbl eL al.
2004, 8ogers eL al. 2010). ln an evaluaLlon of Lhe sysLem puL ln place ln hlladelphla ln 1993, lL has been
esLlmaLed LhaL a warnlng saved 117 llves over a Lhreeyear perlod (Lbl and Schmler 2003). MeLeolrance
has ploneered Lhe developmenL of early warnlng sysLems for meLeorologlcal hazards uslng vlgllance
charLs wlLh colorcoded hazards accordlng Lo severlLy for each of Lhe 100 lrench deparLmenLs
(admlnlsLraLlve reglons). Powever, desplLe havlng a good forecasL of Lhe exLreme heaLwave LhaL sLruck
Lurope and lrance, ln parLlcular, durlng AugusL 2003, Lhe healLh care sysLem was lll prepared and Lhere
were ma[or publlc healLh consequences (8ogers eL al. 2010) wlLh beLween 30 000 and 70 000 exLra
deaLhs durlng a 16day perlod LhroughouL Lurope. AbouL 13 000 of Lhese occurred ln lrance alone,
correspondlng Lo a 60 per cenL lncrease ln expecLed morLallLy ln lrance (loullleL and oLhers, 2006a). 1hls
led Lhe lrench lnsLlLuLe for ubllc PealLh Survelllance (lnvS), ln close cooperaLlon wlLh MeLeolrance, Lo
deflne and lmplemenL a heaL healLh waLch warnlng sysLem based on blomeLeorologlcal lndlcaLors (8ox
ll).
1he lmpacL of Lhls naLlonal PeaL Wave lan (nPW) was evaluaLed durlng Lhe !uly 2006 heaLwave,
whlch happened Lo be Lhe second hoLLesL monLh ln lrance (slnce 1930) only Lhree years afLer AugusL
2003. uurlng Lhese 18 days of heaL, Lhe nPW was exerclsed fully, lncludlng local care Lo elderly or slck
people and dally healLh advlce ln all medla. 1wo Lhousand exLra deaLhs were observed, showlng LhaL
addlLlonal deaLhs cannoL be fully eradlcaLed. neverLheless, Lhe deLrlmenLal effecL of Lhe heaLwave was
reduced slgnlflcanLly when compared wlLh Lhe effecLs of prevlous slmllar evenLs such as ln 1976 when
Lhere were 9000 addlLlonal deaLhs.
An esLlmaLe of Lhe number of deaLhs avolded ls lmporLanL Lo deLermlne Lhe overall beneflL of Lhe
lnLervenLlons. A forecasL model of Lhe expecLed addlLlonal deaLhs, based on a reglonal 10day runnlng
LemperaLure mean, has been LesLed and valldaLed by Lhe lrench naLlonal lnsLlLuLe of PealLh and
Medlcal 8esearch (lnSL8M) ln collaboraLlon wlLh MeLeolrance. 1hls suggesLs LhaL abouL 4 000
premaLure deaLhs were avolded durlng Lhe 2006 evenL, mosL of whlch were probably due Lo publlc
awareness and Lhe nWP (loullleL and oLhers, 2006b).

1
A heaL healLh warnlng sysLem comblnes blomeLeorologlcal lndlcaLors of Lhe human lmpacL of exposure Lo hlgh
envlronmenLal LemperaLures wlLh lnformaLlon on Lhe vulnerablllLy of Lhe populaLlon. LnvlronmenLal LemperaLure
and exposure Lhresholds are Lallored Lo speclflc geographlcal reglons and people. 1he sysLems forecasL heaL waves
several days ahead provldlng warnlngs Lo Lhe vulnerable populaLlon, Lhe medlcal servlces and oLhers Lo Lake
prevenLaLlve acLlons by reduclng exposure, lncreaslng survelllance of Lhe mosL vulnerable, preparlng medlcal and
oLher faclllLles for larger case loads.
4


*%+ !! 83/# 83/0#= 4/$")"5;
1he warnlng sysLem operaLes from 1 !une Lo 31 AugusL (level 1, seasonal survelllance perlod). When Lhe alerL crlLerla
are fulfllled, Lhe deparLmenLs declare a new acLlon level (level 2). A Lhlrd level, whlch resulLs ln maxlmum
moblllzaLlon, ls lmplemenLed lf Lhe lmpacLs of Lhe heaLwave overwhelm Lhe healLh sysLem or lnclude power cuLs,
droughL, managemenL problems ln funeral cenLers or heavy alr polluLlon (!osseran and oLhers, 2009). 1he alerL
sysLem alms Lo glve Lhe publlc auLhorlLles Lhree days' prlor warnlng LhaL a heaLwave may occur, ln order for Lhe
naLlonal PeaL Wave lan (nPW) measures Lo be puL lnLo operaLlon (ascal and oLhers, 2006). 1he prevenLlve
measures are almed aL modlfylng Lhe behavlor of people, healLh lnsLlLuLlons and healLh auLhorlLles wlLh regard Lo
hlgh summer LemperaLures. 1hey lnclude Lelevlslon and radlo spoLs, speclal asslsLance Lo people aL rlsk (many of
Lhem belng prevlously reglsLered aL Lhelr Lown halls), or faclllLles Lo access cllnlcal lnformaLlon on recenL morbldlLy or
morLallLy.
1hls level of cooperaLlon beLween Lhe healLh and meLeorologlcal servlces, led by Lhe healLh secLor and where Lhe
meLeorologlcal warnlng works as a Lrlgger" for local acLlon, ls a good example of Lhe way LhaL Lhe healLh secLor can
work effecLlvely wlLh Lhe cllmaLe communlLy Lo supporL operaLlonal warnlng and response sysLems.
Several lower lncome counLrles wlLh recurrenL dlsasLers llke 8angladesh and Cuba have slgnlflcanLly
reduced morLallLy by developlng effecLlve early warnlng sysLems (Colnaraghl 2010). Cuba's 1roplcal
Cyclone Larly Warnlng SysLem ls credlLed wlLh reduclng deaLhs dramaLlcally for weaLherrelaLed hazards
such as Lroplcal cyclones, sLorm surges, and relaLed floodlng: flve successlve hurrlcanes ln 2008 lefL only
seven dead. CusLav, consldered Lo be Lhe sLrongesL hurrlcane Lo hlL Cuba ln Lhe lasL 30 years, resulLed
ln no faLallLles alLhough more Lhan 100,000 homes were desLroyed. 1he absence of faLallLles was Lhanks
Lo an early warnlng sysLem and an effecLlve response, enabllng Lhe people aL rlsk Lo evacuaLe qulckly Lo
emergency shelLers. Slmllarly ln 8angladesh, where desplLe conLlnulng large flnanclal losses, early
warnlng and response has dramaLlcally decreased Lhe number of llves losL due Lo cyclones ln recenL
years (see 8ox lll).

*%+ !!! */"50/&3;=> -=3 ?"#3(3&3"#; %@ A)73; 6/73& B@$%< 4%$0& */"C DEFEG
Cyclone Sldr was flrsL observed souLhwesL of Lhe Andaman lslands ln Lhe 8ay of 8engal slx days before lL made
landfall on november 13, 2007. 1racklng lLs paLh and growlng sLrengLh, Lhe 8angladesh auLhorlLles had Llme Lo
prepare a well rehearsed response: Lhey lssued warnlngs and acLlvaLed 44,000 volunLeers who helped evacuaLe
roughly 3 mllllon from Lhelr homes and accommodaLe 1.3 mllllon ln shelLers. lew were surprlsed and unproLecLed
when Sldr hlL, buL lLs lmmense force was devasLaLlng. 1he caLegory 4 cyclone (3 ls Lhe mosL severe) wlLh a 1,000
kllomeLer dlameLer and wlnds up Lo 240 kllomeLers an hour whlpped up 3.3 Lo 6 meLer waves LhaL surged over
embankmenLs deslgned Lo wlLhsLand 2.3 meLers. Sldr's forces were moderaLed when passlng over Lhe Sundarbans, a
large weLland of mangrove Lrees, buL such weLlands have dlmlnlshed over Lhe years, and vasL unproLecLed areas
were severely damaged. 8escue and rellef efforLs began lmmedlaLely afLer Lhe cyclone abaLed. 1he 12 worsL affecLed
dlsLrlcLs, Lhough less densely populaLed and poorer Lhan Lhe naLlonal average, had 18.7 mllllon people: 33,000
ln[ured, and 4,400 dead or mlsslng. 1he governmenL esLlmaLed LhaL asseLs worLh $1.16 bllllon were damaged, almosL
all ln houslng and oLher lnfrasLrucLure. Losses of $317 mllllon were expecLed. 8uL lL could have been far worse lf Lhe
counLry had noL learned from earller Lragedles.

3

H/0;3 ?0/$<;I 1%;#; /"& *3"3@)#; %@ 3/$02 4/$")"5
1o fully appreclaLe Lhe cosLbeneflL of early warnlng sysLems, we musL conslder Lhe overall operaLlonal
cosL of Lhe sysLem, Lhe socleLal and economlc losses due Lo false alarms and Lhe socleLal and economlc
savlngs due Lo Llmely acLlon. 1hese daLa are needed Lo properly assess wheLher and where early
warnlng sysLems should be esLabllshed. 1o be effecLlve, Lhe four elemenLs of Lhe warnlng sysLem musL
coexlsL: rlsk knowledge, monlLorlng and warnlng servlce, dlssemlnaLlon and communlcaLlon, and
response capablllLy. lf any of Lhese elemenLs ls mlsslng or poorly developed, Lhe overall sysLem falls.
redlcLlon alone ls lnsufflclenL for effecLlve declslon maklng Lo reduce dlsasLer rlsk. 1he sLraLegy for
effecLlve and Llmely declslonmaklng musL be known. 1hls lncludes deLermlnlng whaL lnformaLlon ls
needed, how predlcLlons wlll be used, how rellable Lhe predlcLlon musL be Lo produce an effecLlve
response, and how Lo communlcaLe Lhls lnformaLlon and Lhe Lolerable predlcLlon uncerLalnLy.
1lmely acLlon reduces loss of llfe and properLy damage. Powever, declslonmakers musL also
undersLand Lhe expecLed consequences of Laklng acLlon, ln Lerms of Lhe probablllLy of false and mlssed
alerLs, Lhe cosL savlngs due Lo mlLlgaLlon acLlons and Lhe cosL of a false alerL (Crasso 2007).
CommunlcaLlng Lhe early warnlng and Lhe uncerLalnLy level of Lhe lnformaLlon Lo users ls crlLlcal (Crasso
eL al 2007), oLherwlse Lhere ls a hlgh rlsk LhaL warnlng lnformaLlon wlll be lgnored or mlsused poLenLlally
resulLlng ln slgnlflcanL socleLal and economlc cosLs (SarevlLz eL al. 2000).
Whlle Lhere ls evldence of Lhe overall beneflL of weaLher servlces (8ox lv) Lo socleLy, Lhere are relaLlvely
few quanLlLaLlve esLlmaLes of Lhe cosLs and beneflLs of speclflc warnlngs and subsequenL acLlons. 1hls
may accounL for Lhe dlfflculLy ln convlnclng many governmenLs, parLlcularly ln developlng counLrles, of
Lhe economlc and soclal value of early warnlng sysLems as prevenLaLlve measures for dlsasLer reducLlon.

*%+ !J *3"3@)#; 3+(33& (%;#; ;%<3#)<3; <%$3 #=/" FE #)<3;
An esLlmaLe ln Chlna ln 1994-96 found a beneflLcosL raLlo beLween 33 and 40 (Cuocal and
Wang 2003)
MeLeorologlcal servlces ln Mozamblque were esLlmaLed Lo have a beneflLcosL raLlo of 70
(World 8ank 2008)
1he raLlo of Lhe economlc beneflLs of lmproved hydromeLeorologlcal lnformaLlon (calculaLed as
avolded losses) Lo Lhe cosLs of naLlonal hydromeLeorologlcal servlces modernlzaLlon programs
vary beLween 2.1 Lo 14.4 for some Luropean and Asla counLrles (World 8ank 2008)
8eneflLs of lmproved weaLher forecasLs esLlmaLed for u.S. households exceed Lhe cosL of u.S.
naLlonal WeaLher Servlce modernlzaLlon program more Lhan Lhreefold (Lazo, 1elsberg, and
Welher 2007).
A more recenL naLlonwlde survey lndlcaLes LhaL Lhe u.S. publlc obLalns several hundred bllllon
forecasLs each year, generaLlng $31.3 bllllon ln beneflLs compared Lo cosLs of $3.1 bllllon (Lazo
eL al, 2009).
1he Lolerable Lhreshold for a false alarm decreases as Lhe cosL of acLlon lncreases or when Lhe cosL
savlngs due Lo mlLlgaLlon decrease. ln general, because shorLer Llme scale forecasLs are more rellable,
Lhe probablllLy of a false alarm decreases as Lhe lead Llme for Lhe predlcLed onseL of Lhe hazard
decreases. Powever, Lhe shorLer lead Llme also means reduced cosL savlngs due Lo less damage
6

avolded. 1hus Lhere ls a Lradeoff beLween Llmellness, warnlng rellablllLy, Lhe cosL of a false alerL, and
damage avolded as a funcLlon of lead Llme, whlch musL be modeled Lo deLermlne Lhe cosL efflclency of
Lhe ouLcome (SchrLer eL al. 2008). A ma[or facLor ln reallzlng Lhe beneflL ls Lhe capaclLy and
commlLmenL Lo acL on Lhe lnformaLlon ln Lhe approprlaLe Llme and manner.
1he cosLs of Lhe warnlng sysLem lLself may be hlgh relaLlve Lo Lhe beneflL lf LhaL sysLem ls used solely for
lnfrequenL evenLs, such as a flood LhaL may occur once ln 200 years. lf Lhe damage assoclaLed wlLh such
a dlsasLer ls $2 bllllon and lf Lhe dlsasLer could be prevenLed by a warnlng sysLem cosLlng $20 mllllon a
year, Lhls would be a poor lnvesLmenL slnce Lhe cosL would exceed Lhe annual expecLed losses by $10
mllllon per year. revenLlon Lhrough early warnlng would only be economlcal lf Lhe evenL was more
frequenL, Lhe damage greaLer, or Lhe prevenLlon cheaper (World 8ank 2010). ln Lhe presenL example,
we would conclude LhaL Lhe resources could be beLLer spenL elsewhere.
ln pracLlce, naLlonal MeLeorologlcal and Pydrologlcal Servlces rarely make a dlsLlncLlon beLween Lhe
rouLlne operaLlon of provldlng a dally weaLher forecasLs and a forecasL of an exLremely hazardous, buL
lnfrequenL weaLherrelaLed evenL. 1he laLLer belng a speclal case of Lhe rouLlne acLlvlLles of Lhe publlc
weaLher servlces. 1hls means LhaL Lhe lncremenLal cosLs of provldlng warnlngs of lnfrequenL exLreme
evenLs are llkely Lo be a relaLlvely small fracLlon of Lhe cosLs of provldlng Lhe rouLlne servlces. lL also
means LhaL Lhe sLaff are conLlnuously lmprovlng Lhelr skllls raLher Lhan exerclslng Lhem lnfrequenLly. ln
addlLlon, furLher cosL efflclencles are posslble by developlng warnlng sysLems LhaL serve mulLlple uses.
1he Shanghal MeLeorologlcal 8ureau of Lhe Chlna MeLeorologlcal AdmlnlsLraLlon, for example, has
developed a MulLlPazard Larly Warnlng SysLem (MPLWS), whlch servlces Lhe needs of numerous
agencles wlLhln Lhe munlclpal governmenL. SlgnlflcanL cosL savlngs are reallzed over sysLems LhaL would
oLherwlse be developed separaLely for each agency (1ang 2009). 1he sysLem ls also exLenslble, maklng
lL posslble Lo add new warnlng servlces, such as healLh forecasLlng, as Lhey are developed (8ox v, 8ogers
eL al. 2010). A reglonal approach based on Lhe same prlnclples, wlLh several counLrles developlng a
common mulLlhazard warnlng sysLem, would also be much more cosL effecLlve Lhan lndlvldual
counLrles developlng Lhelr own unlque sysLems. As a mlnlmum, ln Lhe case of meLeorologlcal hazards,
daLa sharlng beLween counLrles ls essenLlal slnce Lhese hazards are noL llmlLed by geographlcal
boundarles and Lhe burden of cosL for observaLlons of Lhese phenomena needs Lo be shared.
7



*%+ J K 6=/"5=/) L'0#)8/M/$& :/$02 4/$")"5 62;#3<
Shanghal ls vulnerable Lo naLural hazards, such as Lyphoons, ralnsLorms, hlgh LemperaLures, cold
waves, Lhunder and llghLnlng, and heavy fog. 1hese meLeorologlcal hazards may cause urban publlc
emergencles, lncludlng Lrafflc accldenLs and publlc healLh emergencles. 1he munlclpal response Lo
Lhese hazards requlres close mulLlagency coordlnaLlon and cooperaLlon. 1hls has been achleved ln
Shanghal Lhrough Lhe esLabllshmenL of a MulLlPazard early warnlng SysLem, whlch Lakes 'MulLl
Agency CoordlnaLlon" as Lhe concepL and Lechnlcal core of Lhe sysLem Lo enhance Lhe capaclLy of
dlsasLer prevenLlon and mlLlgaLlon ln Shanghal. 1he Shanghal MulLlPazard Larly Warnlng SysLem
(MPLWS) ls [olnLly supporLed by Lhe World MeLeorologlcal CrganlzaLlon (WMC), Chlna
MeLeorologlcal AdmlnlsLraLlon (CMA), and Lhe Shanghal Munlclpal CovernmenL (SMC). lL ls
Lechnlcally led by Lhe Shanghal MeLeorologlcal 8ureau and Lhe Shanghal Munlclpal Lmergency
8esponse ManagemenL Cfflce, and [olnLly developed by relevanL local governmenL agencles. 1he
Shanghal MPLWS lnLegraLes dlverse advanced Lechnologles Lo supporL mulLlhazard warnlng, mulLl
agency coordlnaLlon and provldes a mulLlllnk Lo emergency response and rescue acLlvlLles. 1he
Shanghal MPLWS has proven lnvaluable ln supporL of LxC 2010 and wlll be a crlLlcal operaLlonal
sysLem ln supporL of healLh forecasLlng, survelllance and early deLecLlon of healLh LhreaLs.
1he Shanghal MPLWS conslsLs of slx Lechnlcal componenLs:
1. Larly ueLecLlon and MonlLorlng laLform, whlch lncludes mulLlhazard lnLegraLed
monlLorlng, dlsasLer Lracklng and Lrend warnlng,
2. lorecasL and redlcLlon lnformaLlon CeneraLlon laLform, whlch lncludes varlous
subsysLems lnvolvlng meLeorology, Lrafflc, elecLrlclLy and power securlLy, agrlculLure,
human healLh and oLher relaLed flelds,
3. ueclslonMaklng SupporL laLform, whlch lmplemenLs Lhe mulLlagency cooperaLlon
processes, measures and dlsasLer prevenLlon guldellnes,
4. Warnlng lnformaLlon ulssemlnaLlon laLform, whlch corresponds Lo Lhe Shanghal
munlclpal emergency warnlng lnformaLlon dlssemlnaLlon plaLform,
3. MulLlPazard lnformaLlon uaLabase, whlch provldes mulLlagency realLlme monlLorlng
lnformaLlon collecLlon, dlsasLer lnformaLlon and hlsLorlcal daLa sharlng, as well as dlsasLer
lmpacL assessmenLs, and
6. MulLlagency coordlnaLlon neLwork.
1here are Lhree managemenL componenLs:
1. MulLlagency coordlnaLlon and cooperaLlon mechanlsms,
2. Safe communlLy proLecLlon sysLem for local communlLles, and
3. lnLerclLy and lnLerprovlnclal dlsasLer prevenLlon mechanlsm.
8

:;#)</#)"5 1%;#*3"3@)# %@ 3/$02 4/$")"5 62;#3<;
-=3 (/;3 @%$ @0/;= @0%%&;
CuanLlfylng Lhe cosL effecLlveness of early warnlng sysLems (LWS) ls acknowledged Lo be dlfflculL and ls
Lherefore noL ofLen underLaken. Cne problem ls LhaL facLors oLher Lhan Lhe desLrucLlon of properLy and
Lhe number of deaLhs are seldom lncluded ln analyses, and lL ls ofLen noL posslble Lo deLermlne rellably
avolded losses (ClanLz 2004).
SchrLer eL al. (2008) have assessed Lhe effecLlveness and efflclency of early warnlng sysLems for flash
floods for small rlver baslns. 1helr analysls ls lnformaLlve for Lhe developmenL of opLlmal alerLs Lhrough
Lhe analysls of Lhe Lradeoff beLween Lhe beneflLs of an lncreased lead Llme and Lhe slmulLaneous
decrease of warnlng rellablllLy. 1helr approach conslders LhaL Lhe lncrease ln lead Llme provldes
valuable Llme for Lhe compleLlon of prevenLaLlve measures, whereas Lhe decrease of warnlng rellablllLy
wlll cause economlc loss ln Lhe case of a false alerL. 1he meLhodology has been applled Lo Lwo baslns ln
AusLrla and Spaln.
lor Lhe assessmenL of LWS effecLlveness, Lhey llnked Lhe rellablllLy of Lhe forecasL Lo Lhe economlc
beneflL as a funcLlon of warnlng lead Llme. 1he forecasL rellablllLy ls deLermlned from an analysls of an
ensemble of flood forecasLs, whlch descrlbes Lhe uncerLalnLy due Lo preclplLaLlon forecasL model
parameLers and model sLrucLure. 1he economlc beneflL resulLs from avolded damage Lhrough use of
Lhe LWS.
llood forecasLlng, llke mosL hydromeLeorologlcal forecasLs, lnvolves a conslderable uncerLalnLy because
knowledge of Lhe fuLure sLaLe of Lhe aLmosphere and Lhe sLaLe and behavlor of Lhe hydrologlcal sysLem
ls sLlll llmlLed. An lnLegral measure of Lhe rellablllLy of Lhe forecasL and warnlng ls based on an
lnLerpreLaLlon of flood forecasL errors obLalned from analyses of pasL evenLs. 1he lnformaLlon abouL
forecasL errors ls Lransferred Lo a measure of warnlng rellablllLy as a as funcLlon of lead Llme (llgure 1).

3$(2*) 45"*,$,( &).$"6$.$78 "+ " 92,:7$', '9 .)"% 7$/) ;<:=*>7)* )7 ".? @AABC
ueLermlnlng Lhe ablllLy Lo reduce flood damage ls based on a survey of users. 1he mosL lmporLanL
quesLlon for assesslng Lhe beneflL of an alerL ls Supposed you recelve an alerL some Llme before a flash
9

flood, by whlch percenLage could you reduce flood damage?" (SchrLer eL al. 2008). 1helr resulLs show
a correlaLlon beLween preparedness and Lhe effecLlveness of mlLlgaLlon measures. ln Lhe case of a flash
flood, a Lwelvehour lead Llme provldes a poLenLlal 60 reducLlon ln damage, whereas a onehour lead
Llme resulLs ln a 20 reducLlon (llgure 2). 1he slze of Lhe Lrlangles ls a measure of Lhe frequency of a
cerLaln answer Lo Lhe quesLlonnalre. Whlle Lhe sample slze ls relaLlvely small, lL serves Lhe purpose of
demonsLraLlng LhaL Lhere ls an obvlous correlaLlon beLween preparedness and effecLlveness of
mlLlgaLlon measures.

3$(2*) @? !"/"() *)%2:7$', "+ " 92,:7$', '9 .)"% 7$/) ;<:=*>7)* )7 ".? @AABC
llgure 3, also Laken from SchrLer eL al. 2008, presenLs Lhe Warnlng LxpecLaLlon as an lndlcaLor for Lhe
opLlmal alerL ln a general form. WlLh respecL Lo Lhe lefL axls, Lhe warnlng rellablllLy curve ls drawn as
lnLroduced above. Avoldable damage as calculaLed from Lhe regresslon llne and Lhe comparaLlve rlsk
analysls ls drawn wlLh respecL Lo Lhe rlghL axls. Accordlng Lo Lhls Lhe poLenLlal damage reducLlon
decreases conLlnuously for shorLer warnlng lead Llmes. 1he llne ln Lhe lower parL of Lhe graph
lnLroduces mlLlgaLlon cosLs ln Lerms of losL neL value of producLlon (Lhe correspondlng values have been
scaled wlLh a facLor of 10). 1hls curve lndlcaLes Lhe cosL per hour LhaL arlses lf Lhe acLlve persons sLop
producLlve work and Lurn Lo prevenLlve measures.
ln vlew of Lhe conslderable cosLs ln Lerms of losL producLlon assoclaLed wlLh an alerL, Lhere ls good
reason Lo reflecL carefully abouL Lrlggerlng an alerL for a flood evenL whlch ls sLlll uncerLaln Lo occur. 1he
expecLaLlon of an alerL ls deflned as Lhe producL of Lhe warnlng rellablllLy and Lhe avoldable damage.
1he resulLlng curve, wlLh unlLs t per alerL, ls glven as a bold llne ln llgure 3. Warnlng expecLaLlon ls noL
consLanL buL changes wlLh lead Llme. 1he maxlmum of Lhe warnlng expecLaLlon curve deflnes Lhe
opLlmal polnL of Llme for releaslng an alerL wlLh respecL Lo rellablllLy and consequences (SchrLer eL al.
2009). ln pracLlce, Lhls ls Llme where a waLch" becomes an acLlve warnlng".
10


3$(2*) D? 5"*,$,( )EF):7"7$', "+ ", $,%$:"7'* '9 'F7$/". ".)*7 $, 7=) G)+H+ 6"+$, ;<:=*>7)* )7 ".? @AABC
A comparlson of sLrucLural and nonsLrucLural flood proLecLlon sLraLegles reveals some of Lhe
complexlLles assoclaLed wlLh prevenLaLlve measures for dlsasLer reducLlon (1able 1). ln Lhe case of
olders, consLrucLlon on Lhe Llbe reLurns economlc beneflL whereas Lhe same consLrucLlon on Lhe Cdra
8lver under less favorable condlLlons reLurns no economlc beneflL (SchrLer eL al. 2008). Local measures
showed slgnlflcanL beneflL, buL flood reLenLlon baslns falled Lo meeL Lhe economlc crlLerlon of a beneflL
Lo cosL raLlo of aL leasL 1. ln comparlson Lhe beneflL Lo cosL raLlo of Lhe LWS ls compelllng. 1hus Lhe
comblnaLlon of local proLecLlon and early warnlng appears Lo be Lhe mosL efflclenL comblnaLlon ln Lhls
case (SchrLer eL al. 2008).
1able 1 Comparlson of sLrucLural and nonsLrucLural flood proLecLlon
sLraLegles lncludlng Larly Warnlng SysLems (LWS) (AfLer SchrLer eL al.
2008)
8eneflLCosL 8aLlo
Measure mln mean max Source
I'.%)* 2+) ;J.6)C 2.20 4.00 3.80 lrsLer eL al. 2003
I'.%)* 2+) ;K%*"C 0.10 CochL 2004
3&G+ 0.30
L':". M)"+2*)+ 3.20
MerLz & CochL 2001
J5< 2.60 4.60 9.00 SchrLer eL al. 2008

-=3 (/;3 @%$ :0 N)"% 6%'#=3$" O;()00/#)%"
AgrlculLural producLlvlLy ln many parLs of Lhe world ls llnked Lo Lhe varlablllLy of Lhe Ll nlnosouLhern
osclllaLlon (LnSC), causlng floodlng some reglons and droughLs ln oLhers. Larly warnlng sysLems for
cllmaLe dlsLurbances can averL agrlculLural dlsasLers by helplng farmers alLer Lhelr crop declslons, such
as growlng droughL reslsLanL crops or waLer consumpLlve planLs, or alLerlng planLlng Llmes. Mexlco ls
parLlcularly senslLlve Lo LnSCrelaLed cllmaLlc dlsLurbances. Larly warnlng enables Mexlcan farmers Lo
11

make more lnformed declslons resulLlng ln a poslLlve lmpacL on crop producLlon, enhanclng food
securlLy, farmers' lncomes, and soclal welfare. Adams eL al. (2003) assessed Lhe economlc consequences
of cllmaLe varlablllLy assoclaLed wlLh varlous LnSC phases, modellng reglonal crop yleld senslLlvlLy for
key crops uslng a crop blophyslcal slmulaLor. 1he value of a forecasL was Lhen measured by Lhe expecLed
lncrease ln economlc beneflLs due Lo changes ln cropplng paLLerns, producLlon and consumpLlon arlslng
from yleld changes under each LnSC phase forecasL. 1hese economlc esLlmaLes were derlved from an
economlc model of Mexlcan agrlculLure. 1he value of Lhe LnSC lnformaLlon depends on lLs accuracy ln
Lerms of predlcLlons of Lhe weaLher consequences of each phase.
1he economlc model used was a sLochasLlc, prlce endogenous, maLhemaLlcal model LhaL represenLs
agronomlc and economlc condlLlons ln a flvesLaLe Mexlcan reglon. 1he model deplcLs agrlculLural
behavlor across Lhe Lhree LnSC phases and provldes Lhe basls for calculaLlng Lhe value of lnformaLlon.
Adams eL al. (2003) esLlmaLed Lhe beneflLs of an LnSC early warnlng sysLem for Mexlco ls approxlmaLely
uS$ 10 mllllon annually, based on a 31year Llme perlod of LnSC frequencles assumlng a forecasL sklll of
70. 1hls value LranslaLes lnLo an lnLernal raLe of reLurn for such an early warnlng sysLem of
approxlmaLely 30. 1he values for hlgher sklll levels are correspondlngly hlgher.
-=3 (/;3 @%$ A/"&;0)&3;
ln many reglons of Lhe world, landslldes cause bllllons of dollars of damage and ofLen lmply slgnlflcanL
deaLh raLes (keefer and Larsen 2007). Landsllde early warnlng sysLems (LWS) are an lmporLanL Lool Lo
reduce landsllde rlsks, especlally where Lhe poLenLlal for sLrucLural proLecLlon measures ls llmlLed.
Colombla ls one of Lhe parLlcularly badly affecLed counLrles due Lo predomlnanLly rugged Lerraln and
Lroplcal ralnfall condlLlons. ln many areas, landsllde hazard zones overlap wlLh resldenLlal zones and
lnfrasLrucLure. Pundreds of people have been kllled by landslldes and debrls flows ln Lhe pasL. MosL
recenLly, mulLlple slope fallures and landslldes desLroyed ma[or parLs of populaLlon cenLers ln !une
2006. 1hese recurrlng evenLs are Lherefore a serlous LhreaL Lo llfe, welfare, and local economy (Puggel
eL al. 2010). Larly Warnlng SysLems are Lherefore lmporLanL Lo reduce landsllde rlsks, and ln parLlcular,
avold casualLles and mlnlmlze Lhe evacuaLlon cosLs. Powever, deslgn, lmplemenLaLlon, and successful
operaLlon of a landsllde Larly Warnlng SysLem ls complex and has rarely been achleved. A crlLlcal
problem ls uncerLalnLles relaLed Lo landsllde Lrlggerlng condlLlons, ln parLlcular, esLlmaLes of ralnfall
(Puggel eL al. 2010), whlch are crlLlcal for declslons on lssulng warnlngs or orderlng evacuaLlon. A
Lhreshold for landslldes ln Lhe Combelma valley of Columbla was esLlmaLed based on ralnfall records
and observed landslldes. 8y modellng Lhe acLual early warnlng sysLem, Puggel eL al. (2010) were able Lo
deLermlne Lhe cosLs and beneflLs of dlfferenL scenarlos: 1) damage Lo bulldlngs and evacuaLlon cosLs
when a landsllde occurs, 2) no cosL when Lhere ls no landsllde and no evacuaLlon, 3) damage Lo
bulldlngs and loss of llves when Lhere ls a landsllde buL no evacuaLlon, and 4) cosLs when Lhere ls no
landsllde buL Lhe populaLlon ls evacuaLed. 1helr resulLs suggesL LhaL a llnearly lncreaslng ralnfall
observaLlon error lmplles an exponenLlally rlslng cosL due Lo landslldes mosLly assoclaLed wlLh
evacuaLlon cosLs when a landsllde does noL occur, and LhaL Lhls lnformaLlon can be used Lo flnd
lmproved cosLbeneflLs for ralnfall measurlng sLaLlons. lurLhermore Lhey lnvesLlgaLed uncerLalnLles
relaLed Lo Lhe ralnfall landslldeLrlggerlng Lhreshold, whlch ls Lyplcally a key elemenL for evacuaLlon
declslons. 1hey found LhaL an lncreaslng ad[usLmenL of Lhe Lhreshold wlLh lncreaslng ralnfall observaLlon
12

error ls useful Lo mlnlmlze losses, and LhaL Lhe range of ad[usLmenLs varles wlLh Lhe local ralnfall
observaLlon quallLy.
1%"(0';)%";
lL ls selfevldenL LhaL early warnlng of a hazard ls useful Lo Lake Llmely acLlon Lo proLecL llves and
properLy, and LhaL early warnlng ls a baslc componenL of any dlsasLer rlsk reducLlon sLraLegy. Powever,
we do noL ofLen conslder Lhe rellablllLy of Lhe warnlng and Lhe poLenLlal cosLs of Laklng lnapproprlaLe
acLlon. CosLbeneflL analysls of a warnlng sysLem enables us Lo deLermlne Lhe opLlmum Llme for acLlon
and helps Lo reflne ! "#$%#$ Lhe declslons LhaL need Lo be made when warnlngs are lssued. We can also
use Lhe analysls Lo ldenLlfy where addlLlonal spendlng could be used Lo reduce false alarm raLes by
lmprovlng hazard forecasLs or, lf Lhls ls noL posslble, Lo quanLlfy Lhe cosL of proLecLlng vlLal asseLs
Lhrough approprlaLe lnfrasLrucLure lnvesLmenL. uesplLe Lhelr uLlllLy, Lhere are very few quanLlLaLlve
assessmenLs of Lhe cosLbeneflL of early warnlng sysLems, whlch may accounL for conLlnulng
underlnvesLmenL ln warnlng sysLems ln many places, parLlcularly developlng counLrles wlLh compeLlng
needs for scarce resources. ln mosL cases, for meLeorologlcal hazards, Lhe quallLy of Lhe forecasLs for
early warnlng are dlrecLly relaLed Lo Lhe uncerLalnLy ln observaLlons, whlch glven Lhe pauclLy of
observaLlons ln many developlng and leasL developed counLrles, ls a conLrlbuLlng facLor ln llmlLlng Lhe
effecLlveness of early warnlng sysLems ln Lhese counLrles.
A deLalled assessmenL of flash flood warnlng sysLems ln Lurope ls used as an example Lo hlghllghL Lhe
value of Lhe cosLbeneflL analysls enabllng a reallsLlc esLlmaLe of Lhe beneflL of acLlon ln advance of a
flood and how LhaL beneflL decreases wlLh lncreaslng buL less accuraLe forecasL lead Llme.. A slmllar
approach could be adapLed and used more exLenslvely for oLher Lypes of warnlngs. Such a quanLlLaLlve
approach Lo [usLlfy &''&()$*& spendlng may encourage governmenLs Lo make greaLer use of early warnlng
sysLems. uesplLe Lhe evldence of Lhe value of prevenLlon, many counLrles conLlnue Lo rely on posL
dlsasLer rellef raLher Lhan prevenLlon ln Lhe face of naLural hazards.
An analysls of Lhe cosL of Lhe hazard and Lhe poLenLlal beneflLs may help deLermlne Lhe Lype of forecasL
and warnlng sysLem and response mechanlsms LhaL would be mosL cosL effecLlve. lor example, cosLs
resulLlng from floodlng can be esLlmaLed for varlous magnlLudes of evenLs for varlous cenLers. uamage
sLaLlsLlcs from prevlous floods are also valuable ln esLabllshlng Lhe cosLs assoclaLed wlLh such evenLs.
!udgmenL ls needed Lo esLlmaLe Lhe beneflL of flood forecasLlng and warnlng ln reduclng damages and
loss of llfe. CovernmenLs and flnanclal lnsLlLuLlons requlre such lnformaLlon on cosLs and beneflLs Lo
help undersLand where expendlLures wlll reap Lhe largesL rewards. SLudles and analyses have shown
LhaL damage reducLlon due Lo forecasL lmprovemenLs can range from a few percenLage polnLs Lo as
much as 33 of average annual flood damages. A sLandard seL of flood damage caLegorles relevanL Lo
Lhe basln should be developed. When loss of llfe ls a LhreaL, Lhls Loo should be ldenLlfled, even Lhough lL
ls dlfflculL or lmposslble Lo quanLlfy ln economlc Lerms. CLher damage caLegorles could lnclude
resldenLlal bulldlngs, commerclal, lnsLlLuLlonal and lndusLrlal bulldlngs, agrlculLural lands, and
lnfrasLrucLure. AddlLlonal cosLs lnclude Lemporary relocaLlon and floodflghLlng cosLs. Pazards of all
klnds can have an effecL on Lhe populaLlon and economy of an enLlre counLry, and buslness losses
13

should also be lncluded ln Lhe analysls. ueveloplng sLandard damage caLegorles allows damages Lo be
more accuraLely esLlmaLed for varlous hazard levels.
A rlgorous cosLbeneflL analysls would requlre deLermlnlng Lhe hazard frequency dlsLrlbuLlon so LhaL Lhe
presenL value of fuLure beneflLs can be deLermlned. ln Lhe absence of sufflclenL daLa or analysls, a more
rudlmenLary presenLaLlon of cosLs and beneflLs may be sufflclenL Lo deLermlne Lhe slze of Lhe
lnvesLmenL LhaL ls [usLlfled for forecasLlng, warnlng and response.
Warnlng sysLems are effecLlve when Lhey are accompanled by crlLlcal lnfrasLrucLure - safe evacuaLlon
rouLes, shelLers for humans and llvesLock, secure hosplLals, and so forLh. 1he mosL cosL efflclenL
warnlng sysLems are Lhose LhaL can be exerclsed on a rouLlne basls, ln Lhe case of meLeorologlcal
hazards as a parL of Lhe publlc weaLher servlce. ln addlLlon, even greaLer beneflL ls achleved Lhrough
mulLlagency cooperaLlon Lo develop mulLlhazard early warnlng sysLems LhaL rely on rouLlne funcLlons
Lo lncrease Lhelr beneflL relaLlve Lo Lhelr cosL. 1hls ls work LhaL has been ploneered by Lhe Chlna
MeLeorologlcal AdmlnlsLraLlon and Lhe Shanghal Munlclpal CovernmenL wlLh Lhe WMC, and can be
adapLed for developlng as well as developed counLrles.
llnally one crlLlcal sLep ls Lhe wllllngness Lo acL on a warnlng and Lake approprlaLe lndlvldual and
collecLlve measures Lo proLecL llves and properLy. 1he lndlvldual's wllllngness Lo acL cannoL be Laken for
granLed. 1herefore a compleLely effecLlve warnlng sysLem ls one LhaL engages lLs expecLed beneflclarles
by ralslng awareness and knowledge of rlsks and ensurlng LhaL Lhe acLlons Laken are reallsLlc. larmers,
whose llvellhoods depend on a few cows, wlll llkely value Lhose cows as much lf noL more Lhan Lhelr
own llves and Lhls musL be consldered when responses Lo hazards are developed.
P3@3$3"(3;
Adams, 8.M., L.L. PousLona, 8.A. McCarlb, M.L. 1lscareno, !.C. MaLus, and 8. l. Welhere, 2003: 1he
beneflLs Lo Mexlcan agrlculLure of an Ll nlnosouLhern osclllaLlon (LnSC) early warnlng sysLem.
+,#$(-.)-#!. !/0 1%#&2) 3&)&%#%.%,4, 44N, 34, 183194.
Cropper, M.L., and S. Sahln. 2009. valulng MorLallLy ln Lhe ConLexL of ulsasLer 8lsks. 8ackground
paper for Lhe World 8ank-u.n. AssessmenL on Lhe Lconomlcs of ulsasLer 8lsk 8educLlon.
Lbl kL, 1elsberg 1!, kalksLeln LS, eL al. PeaL waLch/warnlng sysLems save llves: esLlmaLed cosLs and
beneflLs for hlladelphla 1993-98. 5-.. +6 3&)&%#%. 7%( 2004,83:1067-73.
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