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SEPTEMBER 2014

There are many keys events happening this week, all of which have the potential to impact market prices and create a
busy week for financial markets, as is often the case in mid-September. Key risk events include a referendum which could
lead to an independent Scotland and a potentially more hawkish Fed on Wednesday at a time when interest-rate differentials once
again begin to impact major currencies, as demonstrated by the recently strengthening of the USD against the JPY. Ahead of all
these events this week, we have compiled a brief preview ahead of each event and the relevance of each event for financial
markets.

WEDNESDAY 17
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SEPTEMBER

Bank of England Minutes 0930BST/0330CDT
Minutes from the last BoE decisions are likely to show another split between members of the MPC, as was the case in August
when McCafferty and Weale voted for a rate hike as they saw it as desirable to raise rates before wage pressures show due to
monetary policy lags. Despite their desire for an imminent hike, other members of the MPC remain unconvinced and are expected
to want to see rates on-hold until spring 2015, a wish shared by Governor Carney who recently noted that a BoE rate rise by spring
2015 is consistent with the BoEs goal. However, any reaction in UK assets could be short-lived ahead of the referendum in
Scotland one day after the minutes release.

FOMC Decisions, Projections and Press Conference from Chair Yellen 1900BST/1300CDT
Many expect the Fed to start advancing discussions on a return to policy normalization and a timeframe for the first hike to the Fed
Fund Rate (FFR), with the markets now positioned for a less dovish Fed and markets currently pricing in the first FFR hike in July
2015, which has been particularly evident in the past week as rates have climbed across the US yield curve and equities have
pulled off highs in anticipation. Many expected the FOMC to drop the "considerable time" language from the post-meeting
statement, and some expect the dot plot to show more dots shifted to Summer 2015 and a climb in the long-run rate path.

THURSDAY 18
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SEPTEMBER

Scottish Referendum on Independence
The referendum on Scottish independence will finally be held on Thursday, with polls closing at 2000BST, initial polls expected
overnight and final results around 0700BST on Friday. Most recent polls indicate the no camp back in the lead but the wafer-thin
lead leaving the risk of a yes vote, and this risk has been partly priced into the rate of GBP against other major currencies, with
GBP/USD trading back at levels seen at the end of 2013. The latest Survation poll released over the weekend suggests 54% 'no'
and 46% say 'yes', and the latest YouGov survey last week showed 52% in the no camp and 48% yes.

Swiss National Bank Monetary Policy Decisions 0830BST/0230CDT
The SNB are expected to leave rates unchanged at 0.00-0.25%, however weakening of the CHF following the ECBs move to cut
rates has indicated markets are positioning for a more dovish SNB, with the outside chance that the SNB takes rates negative for
the first time in the central banks history. The EUR/CHF rate trades just under a point above the 1.20 floor, and SNB officials have
repeated that the SNB will take other measures necessary to enforce the cap.

ECB TLTRO 1015BST/0415CDT
The ECB will conduct their first 3y TLTRO this week, with the announcement of the operation due on Tuesday at 1430BST, and the
allotment on Thursday at 1015BST. The purpose of these new LTROs are to boost liquidity by a maximum of EUR 400bln, and
although this size is lower than the previous 3y LTROs announced in 2012, the measures are expected to draw demand from
banks given rates are now at the lower bound and hence cash from the ECB is as cheap as it will ever get. EONIA is expected to
fall further following these measures, and rates across the Euribor curve expected to fall if demand exceeds expectation.

FRIDAY 19
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SEPTEMBER

Alibabas IPO
The IPO of Chinese e-commerce giant and Chinas biggest online retailer Alibaba has been well anticipated since the beginning of
the year, is expected to be 4th largest IPO on record, and valued as one of the top 20 largest listed companies in the world.
Indications already show high demand, with talk that initial price guidance could climb and books even close early, however i t is
widely expected that trading will begin on the NYSE on Friday. The deadline for final orders by US clients must be submitted by
1600EDT Tuesday, orders from Asia and Europe on Wednesday, with final price set to be announced on Thursday.

Quadruple Witching
The end of a busy week sees the expiration of index and stock futures and options expiries, better known as quadruple witching
as well as several index rebalancing in the US and Europe.