Documenti di Didattica
Documenti di Professioni
Documenti di Cultura
In 1986, a panel of 150 scientists from eleven countries issued a report warning
that human activities such as automobile use, the production of energy from burning
fossil fuels, and deforestation could cause global temperatures to rise by intensifying the
earth’s greenhouse effect.
The scientists who maintained in the 1980s that human activities could amplify
the greenhouse effect were elaborating on a nineteenthcentury theory proposed by
Swedish chemist Svante Arrhenius. In 1896, Arrhenius hypothesized that the carbon
dioxide produced from the burning of coal and other fossil fuels would cause global
temperatures to rise by trapping excess heat in the earth’s atmosphere. But the global
warming theory did not capture the world’s attention until 1988, when James Hansen, an
atmospheric scientist and director of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies at NASA,
testified before a U.S. Senate committee that the “evidence is strong” that human-made
pollutants were raising world temperatures. If temperatures continued to rise, he warned,
the earth would face catastrophic climate changes that would adversely affect the
environment and human health.
Initially, most climate researchers were skeptical about Hansen’s warning. It was
true that carbon dioxide levels had increased by about 30 percent since the mid-1700s,
when the Industrial Revolution began; it was also true that the average world temperature
had risen by one degree Fahrenheit (F) during the twentieth century—the largest increase
of any century during the past millenium. Yet the earth’s climate had been prone to
fluctuations over the past several hundred years, many climatologists maintained. The
one degree temperature change could be attributed to the natural variability of the
planet’s weather.
Even before these extreme weather events occurred, a United Nations conference
met in Kyoto, Japan, to discuss how to respond to the potential risks posed by global
warming. In December 1997, UN negotiators approved an agreement requiring thirty-
eight industrialized nations to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions by 6 to 8 percent
below 1990 levels by the year 2012. Developing countries, which are poorer and less able
to reduce greenhouse gases without straining their economies, were exempted from the
emissions reduction requirement but were given voluntary standards as goals.
Emmissaries signing this treaty—known as the Kyoto Protocol—must obtain approval
from their own governments to render it a binding agreement. A Clinton administration
official signed the Kyoto Protocol in 1998, but the U.S. Senate voted in 1999 to reject
any climate change treaty that does not require poor nations to reduce their own
greenhouse gases.
Bush’s speech reflects the skepticism that some scientists have about the global
warming theory. Some climatologists maintain that the higher incidence of severe
weather during the 1990s was not necessarily linked to higher greenhouse gas levels or
higher global temperatures. Moreover, as several researchers point out, the IPCC’s
predictions about global warming are largely based on computer-generated climate
simulations, which have proved to be unreliable. Global temperature readings taken on
the ground, from satellites, and from weather balloons often contradict the projections of
the computer simulations. For example, no warming of the lower troposphere (the
atmosphere between 5,000 and 28,000 feet) has been recorded, even though climate
simulators indicated that tropospheric warming should have already occurred due to
increased carbon dioxide levels. Skeptical scientists contend that the fallibility of the
IPCC’s predictions raises serious doubts about the projected severity of global warming.
In June 2002, Bush publicly stated that humanity would be able to adjust to global
warming. Some researchers are even more optimistic, maintaining that a warmer earth
will result in lusher forests, increased food production, lower energy costs, and improved
human health. Many scientists and environmentalists, however, fear that unchecked
global warming will lead to dramatic increases in extreme weather that could uproot
regional populations, augment the spread of infectious diseases, and disrupt worldwide
economies. At Issue: Is Global Warming a Threat? examines the continuing controversy
over the relationship between greenhouse gases and climate change.