To: Task Force on Emerging Global Issues

From: Juan Forrer

Subject: Climate Change: Addressing Adverse Effects on National Security

Memo: Addressing Adverse Effects of Climate Change on National Security

Climate change is an issue that is not simply moral, ethical, and environmental; it also bears
serious implications for U.S. security. Climate change has the potential to affect vast swaths of
the human population through changes in agricultural productivity, reduced access to freshwater,
flooding of coastal areas, and changes in local ecology, among other things. These impacts, in
turn, have the potential to induce conflict and reduce the capability of the United States to project
power overseas. Citizens of the United States are less secure on account of the changes to the
climate, and the U.S. must take steps to address this issue.

Climate change has the potential to topple friendly governments and generate conflicts between
nations that further destabilize governments and economies. Failed states provide the space for
terrorist groups to thrive. If given such an opportunity, these groups may turn their attention to
the United States. In other words, climate change is a threat multiplier, to borrow the language
used by the CNA Corporation when analyzing the impact of climate change on national
security.
1
Though the U.S. can adapt to the ecological challenges of climate change by investing
in new technology and infrastructure, the U.S. is nonetheless susceptible to the indirect security
impacts from the changes overseas.

1
CAN Corporation. 2007. National Security and the Threat of Climate Change. Alexandria, VA: CAN
Corporation.

The United States must take steps to mitigate the challenges of increased political volatility
overseas or, better yet, the U.S. could work with the worlds biggest greenhouse gas emitting
countries to limit emissions, one of the root causes of climate change. A UN report last year
concluded it is at least 95% probable that human activities, rather than natural variations in the
climate, are the main cause of global warming since 1950.
2
If this is the case, then it is our
responsibility to slow the pace of climate change, not only to maintain international stability, but
also to attenuate the suffering of those most affected.

This memo will begin by looking at the impact of climate change on the environment, then
describe the way that human populations are affected by these changes and the way that this
response affects international security. It addresses three reasons why climate change is relevant
to U.S. foreign policy and national security:

1) Climate change-induced migration breeds conflict
2) Loss of resources caused by climate change leads to poverty, breading political instability
and terrorism.
3) Climate change affects U.S. military infrastructure and operations capabilities

It will conclude with a discussion of the challenges that await when tacking the issue, including
foreign relations challenges and politicized science challenges.


2
"United Nations Predicts Climate Hell in 2050 with Imagined Weather Forecasts." The Guardian. Guardian
News and Media, 02 Sept. 2014. Web. 02 Sept. 2014.
CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON THE ENVIRONMENT

Climate change refers to the change in global climate patterns during the last several decades
attributed to increases in carbon dioxide produced by the use of fossil fuels.
3
Climate change
does not directly lead to volatile security situations. Rather, climate change impacts security
indirectly through environmental, ecological and agricultural changes. For instance, security is
compromised by drought, one of the direct impacts of climate change on the planet. To fully
understand why climate change matters and the mechanisms through which it diminishes
security, we must look first to the direct environmental impacts that climate change has on the
planet.

While the mechanisms impacting security may be indirect, it is important to keep in mind that
they are nonetheless powerful.

--Temperature increases: The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, a UN scientific
body, attributes recent warming patterns to human-caused climate change and projects that the
planet will continue warming at a rate of about .1 to .35 degrees Celsius per decade as a result of
the presence of greenhouse gasses like carbon dioxide that trap heat within the atmosphere.


3
New Oxford American Dictionary, Second Edition, Erin McKean (editor), May 2005, Oxford University Press,
--Sea level rise: The 2013 IPCC report projects a sea level rise of 28 to 98 centimeters by the end
of the century, with potential to flood large amounts of low-lying areas near the coast.
4
This is
caused by melting at the poles.

-- Drought: Climate change leads to changes in rainfall and decreased glacial melt that threatens
water supplies around the world.
5
In the U.S. itself, the severity of recent droughts has been
linked to climate change.
6
If climate change is not addressed, one third of all counties in the
continental United States will face higher risks of water shortages by mid century, according to a
report by the Natural Resources Defense Council.
7


--Loss of biodiversity: According to the National Climate Change Assessment, biodiversity and
ecosystems are already more stressed than at any comparable period of human history. It is
causing species to shift their ranges, and there is evidence of population declines and localized
extinctions that are attributable to climate change.
8


--Increase in the number of natural disasters: In the last decade, there were three times as
many natural disasters as there were from 1980-1989. The rise is mainly due to an increase in

4
Jones, Nicola. "Rising Waters: How Fast and How Far Will Sea Levels Rise?"Yale Environment 360. Yale
University, n.d. Web. 01 Sept. 2014.
5
Dai, Aiguo. "Increasing Drought under Global Warming in Observations and Models." Nature Climate
Change 3.1 (2012): 52-58. Web. 2 Sept. 2014.
6
"Climate Change, Water, and Risk." Water Sustainability. Natural Resources Defense Council, n.d. Web. 02
Sept. 2014.
7
Ibid.
8
Staudt, Amanda, Michelle Staudinger, Mary Ruckelshaus, Peter Kareiva, Nancy Grimm, Shawn Carter, Bruce
Stein, and Stewart Chapin. Impacts of Climate Change on Biodiversity, Ecosystems, and Ecosystem Services. Rep.
N.p.: n.p., n.d. Web.
weather-related natural disasters, including storms, flooding and forest fires.
9
Climate change
has the potential to impact not only the number, but also the severity, of these natural disasters.
10

WHAT THIS MEANS FOR HUMAN POPULATIONS

All of the aforementioned environmental impacts directly affect the ability to sustain human life.
Humans are reliant on the environment for survival, and altering the ability of the environment to
sustain life leads humans to alter their behavior. When human life cannot be sustained, this leads
down the path to the more direct impacts of climate change on security: lowered opportunity
costs of participating in armed conflict and migration.

--Decreased agricultural productivity: The IPCC report projects falling crop yields, calling
into question the planets ability to provide sustenance for a rapidly growing population. The
IPCC projects that changes to temperature and rainfall patterns will lead to food price rises of
between 3 and 84 percent by 2050.
11


--Decrease in fishing output: According to the IPCC, fish catches in some areas of the tropics
are projected to fall between 40 and 60 percent. This is caused by changes to the marine
environment that is shifting the range, diversity, and abundance of maritime fish.
12


9
Leaning, Jennifer, and Debarati Guha-Sapir. "Natural Disasters, Armed Conflict, and Public Health." New
England Journal of Medicine 369.19 (2013): 1836-842. Web.
10
"Steady Increase in Climate Related Natural Disasters." AccuWeather. AccuWeather, n.d. Web. 02 Sept.
2014.
11
Goldenberg, Suzanne. "Climate Change 'already Affecting Food Supply' UN." The Guardian. Guardian News
and Media, 31 Mar. 2014. Web. 02 Sept. 2014.
12
Amanda Staudt et. al.
--- Increased prevalence of disease: Changes in temperature means that tropical diseases are
moving to latitudinal ranges that have been previously unheard of. Additionally, changes in
biodiversity make it easier for diseases to spread. Lower levels of biodiversity, for instance,
make transmission of Lyme disease and West Nile Virus, easier.
13


INTERNATIONAL SECURITY AND FOREIGN POLICY IMPLICATIONS

When their methods of subsistence are compromised by environmental changes, humans will
adapt. While ideally, in the long-run, this adaptation might lead to steps on an international level
to mitigate climate change impacts, on a short-term and localized level, populations will take
steps to secure their health and survival. This might mean competing with other groups for
resources, moving to locations where resources are more plentiful, or participating in armed
conflict or terrorism, where food and payment might be guaranteed.

Migration breeds conflict: Changes in agricultural productivity and cattle raising caused by
drought tend to compel populations to move. When populations move, they begin to compete for
resources with the populations living in the areas to which they are migrating. This type of
conflict can destabilize governments and lead to terrorist attacks. For example, the desertification
of the Sahel region of the Sahara has led pastoralists to take their cattle further and further south,
leading to violence in Northern Nigeria.


13
Walsh, Brian. "Infectious Disease Could Become More Common in a Warmer World." Science Space
Infectious Disease Could Become More Common in a Warmer World Especially for Plants and Animals
Comments. TIME, 02 Aug. 2013. Web. 01 Sept. 2014.
--Poverty boosts terrorism and reduces government stability: Poverty decreases the
opportunity cost of participating in terrorism. When citizens lack the resources to care for
themselves and their families, participating in conflict appears relatively more attractive. The
mechanisms by which climate change increases poverty are manifold. Decreased crop yields,
decline in fish populations, reduced access to fresh drinking water, and increased prevalence of
disease are all climate change impacts that can lead to increased poverty levels. This also leads to
toppling of governments that cannot provide resources to citizens, as occurred in Ethiopia in the
1970s when the emperor could not respond to food shortages.
14
Government collapse is also a
predictor of terrorist activity.

IMPACT ON MILITARY SYSTEMS, INFASTRUCTURE, AND OPPERATIONS

The CAN Corporation report, written by retired high-ranking members of the military, discusses
many of the potential impacts mentioned above. Additionally, it details the challenges to military
readiness that result from changes in climate. Beyond simply

--Strain to respond to international disasters: One of the current tasks of the military is to
respond to natural disasters, like the 2005 Indian Ocean Tsunami, and conduct military and
civilian stability operations. The CAN Corporation report fears that with greater incidence of
natural resources, the military will have to start choosing where and when to commit resources.
15



14
CNA Corporation, p. 18
15
Ibid., p. 36
--Flooding of coastal installations: The U.S. Navy maintains Naval bases and other
developments near coastal areas that could be flooded and made inoperable by even slight
changes in sea level height caused by climate change.
16


--New sea routes: The melting of polar ice increases the amount of navigable waters, which
strains the U.S. Navys capability of projecting power overseas.
17

-- DOD Energy supplies: The consistency of fuel deliveries by contractors ( a necessary
component of military operations) decreases with changing climate.
18

TACKLING THE CONFLICT

The U.S., as a developed nation, has a higher likelihood of adapting to the direct impacts of
climate change. For instance, the U.S. can manage coastal flooding through new infrastructure
projects like dykes in a way that undeveloped nations that lack access to capital cannot.
However, something must be done to help
the nations that cannot adapt on their own
if the international security dangers are to
be mitigated. This can happen most
effectively with a concerted effort at
comprehensive international treaties that
limit greenhouse gas emissions. It is for

16
Ibid., p. 37
17
Ibid., p. 38
18
Ibid.
Source: Skeptical Science

Figure 1
this reason that climate change is not just a matter of security, but also of foreign policy.

One major obstacle to addressing the climate change issue in the United States is the perception
among the general population about a lack of scientific consensus on climate change (see figure
1). The reality, however, is just the opposite; 97 percent of climate scientists agree that humans
are causing global warming.
19
The Senate must ratify international treaties, and this type of false
analysis makes it almost impossible for a climate change treaty ever to become international law.
Given that the U.S. is one of the biggest greenhouse gas emitters on the planet,
20
this means that
international action on climate change is unlikely to progress without a change in U.S. news
coverage.

Additionally, the nature of climate change skepticism is vastly different than true scientific
skepticism, according to the author of the website SkepticalScience.com; true scientific
skepticism means looking at all published research with a critical eye. What climate change
skeptics do instead, however, is to unquestioningly accept any study that refutes climate change
while vociferously criticizing the minute details of articles that endorse climate change. This is
yet another challenge to overcome when it comes to addressing the national security implications
of climate change.






19
Is There a Scientific Consensus on Global Warming? Skeptical Science. N.p., n.d. Web. 02 Sept. 2014.
20
Matthews, H. Damon, Tanya L. Graham, Serge Keverian, Cassandra Lamontagne, Donny Seto, and Trevor J.
Smith. "National Contributions to Observed Global Warming." Environmental Research Letters 9.1 (2014):
014010. Web.





WORKS CITED


CNA Corporation. 2007. National Security and the Threat of Climate Change. Alexandria, VA:
CAN Corporation.

"Climate Change, Water, and Risk." Water Sustainability. Natural Resources Defense Council,
n.d. Web. 02 Sept. 2014.

Dai, Aiguo. "Increasing Drought under Global Warming in Observations and Models." Nature
Climate Change 3.1 (2012): 52-58. Web. 2 Sept. 2014.

Goldenberg, Suzanne. "Climate Change 'already Affecting Food Supply' UN." The Guardian.
Guardian News and Media, 31 Mar. 2014. Web. 02 Sept. 2014.

Is There a Scientific Consensus on Global Warming? Skeptical Science. N.p., n.d. Web. 02
Sept. 2014.

Jones, Nicola. "Rising Waters: How Fast and How Far Will Sea Levels Rise?"Yale Environment
360. Yale University, n.d. Web. 01 Sept. 2014.

Leaning, Jennifer, and Debarati Guha-Sapir. "Natural Disasters, Armed Conflict, and Public
Health." New England Journal of Medicine 369.19 (2013): 1836-842. Web.

Matthews, H. Damon, Tanya L. Graham, Serge Keverian, Cassandra Lamontagne, Donny Seto,
and Trevor J. Smith. "National Contributions to Observed Global Warming." Environmental
Research Letters 9.1 (2014): 014010. Web.

Staudt, Amanda, Michelle Staudinger, Mary Ruckelshaus, Peter Kareiva, Nancy Grimm, Shawn
Carter, Bruce Stein, and Stewart Chapin. Impacts of Climate Change on Biodiversity,
Ecosystems, and Ecosystem Services. Rep. N.p.: n.p., n.d. Web.

"Steady Increase in Climate Related Natural Disasters." AccuWeather. AccuWeather, n.d. Web.
02 Sept. 2014.

New Oxford American Dictionary, Second Edition, Erin McKean (editor), May 2005, Oxford University Press,

"United Nations Predicts Climate Hell in 2050 with Imagined Weather Forecasts." The
Guardian. Guardian News and Media, 02 Sept. 2014. Web. 02 Sept. 2014.

Walsh, Brian. "Infectious Disease Could Become More Common in a Warmer World." Science
Space Infectious Disease Could Become More Common in a Warmer World Especially for
Plants and Animals Comments. TIME, 02 Aug. 2013. Web. 01 Sept. 2014.