IDC-401 Theoretical Biology

Term Paper
LotkaVolterra



From:




Devender Kumar
MS09049
IISER Mohali






About the model
LotkaVolterra equations

The LotkaVolterra equations are a pair of first-order, non-linear, differential equations
used to describe the dynamics of biological systems in which two species interact, one a
predator and one its prey. This model has been derived by simultaneous and independent
working of two different scientists Lotka and Volterra. This model was initially proposed by
Lotka which was effectively the logistic equation.

This model is based on some rudimentary assumptions which can be listed as:
1. There is enough food supply to suffice the requirement of prey all the time.
2. The food supply of the predator population depends only on the prey population.
3. During the whole process the environment does not change in favour of one species
and the genetic adaptation is sufficiently slow.
4. The rate of change of population is proportional to its size.

Prey:
When multiplied out, the prey equation becomes:
The prey are assumed to have an unlimited food supply, and to reproduce exponentially
unless subject to predation; this exponential growth is represented in the equation above by
the term x. The rate of predation upon the prey is assumed to be proportional to the rate at
which the predators and the prey meet; this is represented above by xy. If either x or y is
zero then there can be no predation.

Predators:
The predator equation becomes:
In this equation, xy represents the growth of the predator population. y represents the
loss rate of the predators due to either natural death or emigration; it leads to an
exponential decay in the absence of prey.

When does population reach equilibrium:

Population equilibrium occurs in the model when neither of the population levels is
changing, i.e. when both of the derivatives are equal to 0 and hence

Stability of the fixed points
The stability of the fixed point at the origin can be determined by performing a linearization
using partial derivatives. The Jacobian Matrix of the predator-prey model is given by:

Fixed points
When evaluated at the steady state of (0, 0) the Jacobian matrix J becomes


The eigen values of this matrix are
In the model and are always greater than zero, and as such the sign of the eigenvalues
above will always differ. Hence the fixed point at the origin is a saddle point .
The stability of this fixed point is of importance. If it were stable, non-zero populations might
be attracted towards it, and as such the dynamics of the system might lead towards the
extinction of both species for many cases of initial population levels. However, as the fixed
point at the origin is a saddle point, and hence unstable, we find that the extinction of both
species is difficult in the model.


Motivation

Prey and predation are very strong forces in nature. Predation and prey are an
indispensable part of ecology, since these prey-predator interactions are linkages which
serve as a prime movers of energy through food chain. Changing conditions in the
environment leads to changes in their intrinsic features, so they start evolving and once
predator starts evolving, how can prey be far behind? This cycle goes on, Thanks to
evolution. Lets take an example. We, humans are predator for some and prey of some. If
our prey dies, (our food) how can we survive? Our generations have to evolve to adapt such
to feed on a different type of prey to survive. Now that prey population falls off, they have to
rescue their population. This intricate balance is very very important and this is what drives
life!

Today science and technology has made advancements in every sphere of life. Man has
reached to the moon. We can reach to any of the levels, but theres no point if this intricate
balance on earth is disrupted. Hence its been appreciated that we make a move towards
restoring such a balance and try to evolve with more mathematical models to achieve
accuracy among such relations of mother nature. Though, being an undergraduate, through
this model I would like to bring out the motivation inside me for the Mother Nature and
hence I preferred to choose this model over others as my term paper.

Running the CODE
: Plotting Null Clines
: Population size of prey and predator
var('t')
var('T D')
var('T0 D0')
var('p q r s')
## CONSTANTS
p = 0.05 # Birthrate of Dear
q = 0.0005 # probability of predation per encounter
r = 0.1*0.0005 # probability of predation per encounter
s = 0.24 # death rate of Tiger
## INITIAL CONDITIONS
D0 = 4000 #initial number of Dear
T0 = 350 #initial number of Tiger
## DIFFERENTIAL EQUATIONS
fo_D = (diff(D,t) == p*D - q*D*T)
fo_T = (diff(T,t) == r*D*T - s*T)
## CALCULATION PARAMETERS
end_points = 300
stepsize = 1.0
steps = end_points/stepsize
incs = [0,D0,T0]
sol = []
des = [fo_D.rhs(), fo_T.rhs()]
## NUMERICAL SOLUTION OF DIFFERENTIAL EQUATIONS
sol = desolve_system_rk4(des,[D,T],incs,ivar=t,end_points=end_points,step=stepsize)
sol_t=[]
sol_D=[]
sol_T=[]
for i in range(steps):
sol_t.append(sol[i][0])
sol_D.append(sol[i][1])
sol_T.append(sol[i][2])

a = plot([])
a += line(zip(sol_D,sol_T))
a += plot_vector_field((des[0], des[1]), (D,0,9500), (T,0,250),xmin=2000,color='blue')
show(a)

Null Clines for the given values of different Parameters are shown
q = list_plot(zip(sol_t,sol_T), color='yellow')
q = q + list_plot(zip(sol_t,sol_D), color='black')
show(q)


Population Size of Prey predator are plotted in the above graph.


References :
Strogatz, Steven H. Nonlinear Dynamics and Chaos.
LotkaVolterra equation - Wikipedia.

LotkaVolterra Predator-Prey Model by Elmer G. Wiens.