Mexp Smallcell 13 Toc

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2013 Mobile Experts LLC. All Rights Reserved
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TABLE OF CONTENTS


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CHARTS
Chart 1: Declining cost of network capacity .......................................................................................... 9
Chart 2: Forecasted growth of small cells, 2009 to 2017 ..................................................................... 10
Chart 3: Comparison of Coverage/Capacity Alternatives .................................................................... 11
Chart 4: Growth of Mobile Data Traffic ................................................................................................ 13
Chart 5: Cost Comparison per Mbps of Capacity, Macro vs. LTE Small Cell ........................................ 17
Chart 6: Total Cost of Ownership comparison, Macro vs. LTE Small Cell .......................................... 18
Chart 7: Comparison of Macro, Small Cell, DAS, and WiFi for coverage and cost .............................. 21
Chart 8: Mobile Data Traffic, percentage offloaded to Small Cell and Wi-Fi, 2009-2017 .................. 23
Chart 9: Forecasted adoption of Wi-Fi into small cells, 2010-2017 ...................................................... 24
Chart 9: SNR limits throughput for LTE ................................................................................................ 26
Chart 11: North American forecasted small cell shipments, 2011 to 2017 ............................................ 38
Chart 12: North American forecasted micro/pico shipments, 2011 to 2017 ......................................... 39
Chart 13: North American forecasted gateway-based small cell shipments, by type, 2011 to 2017 ... 40
Chart 14: Latin American forecasted small cell shipments, 2011 to 2017 ..............................................41
Chart 15: Latin American forecasted micro/picocell shipments, by power level, 2011 to 2017 .......... 42
Chart 16: Latin American forecasted gateway-based small cell shipments, by type, 2011 to 2017 .... 43
Chart 17: European forecasted small cell shipments, by type, 2011 to 2017 ....................................... 44
Chart 18: European forecasted micro/picocell shipments, by power level, 2011 to 2017 .................. 45
Chart 19: European forecasted gateway-based small cell shipments, by type, 2011 to 2017 ............ 46
Chart 20: Chinese forecasted small cell shipments, by type, 2011 to 2017 ......................................... 47
Chart 21: Chinese forecasted micro/picocell shipments, by power level, 2011 to 2017 ...................... 48
Chart 22: Chinese forecasted gateway-based small cell shipments, by type, 2011 to 2017 ............... 49
Chart 23: Asia/Pacific forecasted small cell shipments, by type, 2011 to 2017 ................................... 50
Chart 24: Asia/Pacific forecasted micro/picocell shipments, by power level, 2011 to 2017 ............... 51
Chart 25: Asia/Pacific forecasted gateway-based small cell shipments, by type, 2011 to 2017 ......... 52
Chart 26: MEA forecasted small cell shipments, by type, 2011 to 2017 .............................................. 53
Chart 27: MEA forecasted picocell shipments, by power level, 2011 to 2017 ..................................... 54
Chart 28: MEA forecasted gateway-based small cell shipments, by type, 2011 to 2017 .................... 55
Chart 29: Forecasted growth of base station alternatives, 2010 to 2017 ........................................... 56
Chart 30: Forecasted mini-RRH shipments, by region, 2011 to 2017 .................................................... 57
Chart 31: Forecasted multimode mini-RRH technology adoption, 2011 to 2017 ................................. 58
Chart 32: Forecasted growth of micro/picocells 2011 to 2017 .............................................................. 59
Chart 33: Forecasted microcell shipments, by region, 2011 to 2017 .................................................... 60
Chart 34: Forecasted multimode microcell technology adoption, 2011 to 2017 ................................. 61
Chart 35: Forecasted microcell shipments, by power level, 2011 to 2017 ........................................... 62
Chart 36: Forecasted outdoor picocell shipments, by region, 2011 to 2017 ........................................ 63
Chart 37: Forecasted multimode adoption for outdoor picocells, 2011 to 2017 ................................. 64
Chart 38: Forecasted integration of Wi-Fi with outdoor picocells, 2011 to 2017 ................................. 64
Chart 39: Forecasted indoor picocell shipments, by region, 2011 to 2017 .......................................... 65
Chart 40: Forecasted multimode adoption for indoor picocells, 2011 to 2017 ................................... 66
Chart 41: Forecasted integration of Wi-Fi with indoor picocells, 2011 to 2017 .................................... 67
Chart 42: Forecasted growth of femtocells, by deployment type, 2009 to 2017 ............................... 68


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Chart 43: Forecasted consumer femtocell shipments, by region, 2011 to 2017 .................................. 69
Chart 44: Forecasted multimode technology adoption in consumer femtocells, 2011 to 2017 ......... 70
Chart 45: Forecasted integration of Wi-Fi with consumer femtocells, 2011 to 2017............................ 71
Chart 46: Forecasted enterprise femtocell shipments, by region, 2011 to 2017 ................................. 72
Chart 47: Forecasted multimode technology adoption in enterprise femtocells, 2011 to 2017 ........ 73
Chart 48: Forecasted Wi-Fi integration with enterprise femtocells, 2011 to 2017 .............................. 74
Chart 49: Forecasted indoor carrier femtocell shipments, by region, 2011 to 2017 ........................... 75
Chart 50: Forecasted multimode technology adoption in indoor carrier femtocells, 2011 to 2017 ... 76
Chart 51: Forecasted integration of Wi-Fi with indoor carrier femtocells, 2011 to 2017 ..................... 77
Chart 52: Forecasted Metrocell shipments, by region, 2011 to 2017 ................................................... 78
Chart 53: Forecasted multimode technology adoption in Metrocells, 2011 to 2017........................... 79
Chart 53: Forecasted integration of Wi-Fi with Metrocells, 2011 to 2017 ............................................ 79
Chart 55: Forecasted Hi Power Metrocell shipments, by region, 2011 to 2017 ................................... 80
Chart 56: Forecasted multimode technology adoption in Hi Power Metrocells, 2011 to 2017 .......... 81
Chart 57: Forecasted integration of Wi-Fi with Hi Power Metrocells, 2011 to 2017 ............................ 81
Chart 58: Forecasted alternative radio nodes, by architecture, 2011 to 2017 ..................................... 82
Chart 59: Forecasted DAS node shipments, by region, 2010 to 2016 .................................................. 84
Chart 60: Forecasted repeater deployments by operators, by region, 2010 to 2017 ......................... 85
Chart 61: Forecasted repeater deployments by consumers, by region, 2009 to 2016 ....................... 85
Chart 62: Forecasted relay shipments, by region, 2010 to 2017 .......................................................... 86
Chart 63: Small Cells segmented by air interface standard, 2011 to 2017 ........................................... 87
Chart 64: Small Cells segmented by rated power level, 2011 to 2017 .................................................. 88
Chart 65: Frequency Bands covered by Small Cell Shipments, 2011-2017 ........................................... 89
Chart 66: Multiband Small Cell Shipments, 2011-2017 .......................................................................... 90
Chart 67: Small Cell Shipments with Inter-band Carrier Aggregation, 2011-2017................................ 91
Chart 67: Multimode vs. Adaptable Mode adoption for various small cells, 2010 to 2017 ................ 93


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EXHIBITS

Exhibit 1: Growth of Various Small Cell Market Segments ............................................ 12
Exhibit 2: Spatial Efficiency Needed for Higher Capacity ............................................... 14
Exhibit 3: Case Study: Cost Comparison of Macro, Femto and HetNet ....................... 19
Exhibit 4: Map of Coverage Products and Capacity Products ...................................... 20
Exhibit 5: Heterogeneous Network Overlay Diagram .................................................. 25
Exhibit 6: An Example of an Indoor Picocell .................................................................. 29
Exhibit 7: Femto/Gateway architecture diagram .......................................................... 30
Exhibit 8: Indoor DAS installation diagram ..................................................................... 32
Exhibit 9: Typical application of a repeater ................................................................... 33
Exhibit 10: Typical application of a relay ........................................................................ 34
Exhibit 11: Types of Carrier Aggregation ........................................................................ 35
Exhibit 12: Throughput Improvement from Coordinated MultiPoint .......................... 36
Exhibit 13: Use of Almost Blank Subframes (ABS) for eICIC ..........................................37
Exhibit 14: Detailed Definitions of Equipment Types .................................................... 111
Exhibit 15: Detailed Definitions of Regions .................................................................... 112
Exhibit 16: Detailed Definitions of Multimode and Single Mode.................................. 112
Exhibit 17: Detailed Definitions of Frequency Band Categories ................................... 112


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8: METHODOLOGY

To create estimates and forecasts for Heterogeneous Network equipment shipments,
Mobile Experts relied on direct input from more than 60 industry sources, with 28 different
mobile operators contributing to the overall analysis to give a detailed global view of the
market. Mobile Experts built a top down forecast based on direct input from mobile
operators and based on trends in end-user demand for mobile services. Then, Mobile
Experts built a bottom up forecast through discussions with the supply chain. Roughly
40 suppliers, integrators, and OEMs participated in this phase of the survey. Mobile
Experts also used financial disclosures from publicly traded companies to assemble a
quantitative view of the equipment market.

Mobile Experts has defined market segments in a new way in order to achieve more clarity
than other analysts in this area. In particular, we have defined market segments which
are narrow in order to give more insight into the driving forces in the market. The market
segments are chosen to shed light on the radio semiconductors, with a focus on RF
transmitter power level and features such as multimode operation.

The terminology used throughout the report refers to the architecture of a WCDMA
network since this segment is the single largest market segment. In particular, the terms
I-ub and I-uh are sometimes used to define categories, even though a number of air
interface standards are included in the forecast. The equivalent segmentation applies to
CDMA networks (Abis instead of I-ub) and LTE networks (IMS/SIP instead of I-ub or I-uh).

The independent market for Carrier Wi-Fi is not included in this analysis, but integration of
Wi-Fi into licensed-band small cells was considered. See the April 2013 study on Carrier Wi-
Fi by Mobile Experts for details on the standards, market drivers, and convergence details
in Carrier Wi-Fi.

Exhibits 14 through 17 give the detailed definitions for each category of equipment, for
regions of the world, for multimode vs. single mode, and for frequency band
categorization.


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Exhibit 14: Detailed definitions for each equipment category

Definitions RF Power Antenna Location Backhaul Architecture
Macrocell 40W+ composite Rooftop or higher, sectorized Operator managed Closely controlled cells
Mini-RRH up to 1W per antenna Indoor CPRI, OBSAI, ORI No baseband processing in radio unit
Microcell 5.1-39W composite Mostly outdoor, utility pole, wall, roof Operator managed RNC or BSC architecture (2G/3G)
Outdoor Picocell 300 mW to 5W comp. Indoor or Outdoor, wall or ceiling Operator managed RNC or BSC architecture (2G/3G)
Indoor Picocell <300 mW composite Mostly indoor Operator managed RNC or BSC architecture (2G/3G)
Hi Power Metrocell 5.1-19W/antenna(LTE) Outdoor Operator managed Coordinated with macro layer, LTE or 3G gateway
Metrocell 300 mW to 5W per ant. Outdoor Operator managed Coordinated with macro layer, LTE or 3G gateway
Carrier Femtocell <300 mW per antenna Operator managed Lightly Coordinated with macro layer, LTE or 3G gateway
Enterprise Femtocell 50 to 300 mW/antenna Indoor mostly Enterprise managed Autonomous node (Gateway)
Consumer Femtocell <50 mW/antenna Indoor Consumer managed Autonomous node (Gateway)
Active Antenna System Any power Multiple antennas using waveforms and beamsteering
Outdoor DAS 5-60W composite Utility pole or rooftop Aggregated at hub Simulcast
Indoor DAS 0-4W composite Wall or ceiling mounted Aggregated at hub Simulcast
Repeater: Operator Any Indoor or outdoor, Utility pole or wall None, over the air Same RF signal repeated
Repeater: Consumer Any Indoor None, over the air Same RF signal repeated
Relay Any Indoor or Outdoor None, over the air Demodulated & shifted for orthogonality
Satellite-based Access Node Any Onboard aircraft, ships, remote locations Satellite Multiple

Source: Mobile Experts


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Exhibit 15: Detailed definitions for regions

North America: USA and Canada
Latin America: Mexico through South America, including Caribbean
Europe: Western and Eastern Europe, including Russia
China: China, including Tibet and Hong Kong
Asia Pacific: India through Australia/Micronesia, excluding China
Middle East/Africa: Pakistan and Turkey through Africa


Exhibit 16: Detailed definitions for multimode/single mode

Multimode:
Capable of multiple simultaneous air interface standards (LTE,
HSPA, GSM, etc)
Adaptable:
Capable of one air interface standard at a time, but
reprogrammable
Single-mode: Capable of only one air interface standard


Exhibit 17: Detailed definitions for multiband and carrier aggregation

Multiband:
Capable of operating in multiple frequency
bands, one at a time or simultaneously
with separate baseband datastreams
Carrier Aggregation
Units:
Units which operate in multiple bands with
a single baseband datastream (inter-band
CA)


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