Nassim Taleb Tweet Arcihve

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1. 6h Nassim N. Taleb @nntaleb

Updated new version of the textbook-in-progress, for comments and nitpicking
htt ps: //docs.google.com/file/d/0B_31K_MP92hURjZxTkxUTFZnMVk/ edit?usp=sharing
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@Talv_968 @mister__lemon What would you rather have, a longer window or a longer widow?
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@J_Rippel Thanks
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4. 15 Mar Nassim N. Taleb @nntaleb
@ reem_asaad
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I am also making my textbook freely available. Will thank in acknow sction those who find math
typos ht tps://docs.google.com/file/d/0B_31K_MP92hURjZxTkxUTFZnMVk/ edit
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@zenodotus Thanks; I am looking for mathematical typos not English ones. Thx again.
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@csandis Oui cher ami. I am tired of being misunderstood so I am putting everything technical in a
linear form, easy to access.
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Looking for nitpickers, as the first chapters of my textbook are here
htt ps: //docs.google.com/file/d/0B_31K_MP92hURjZxTkxUTFZnMVk/ edit
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@NotResilience @JonHaidt Bec. Refuses hon deg, awards, listings in "100 most",& debasements of
knowledge that turn it into spectator sport
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@GreenRupertRead Excellent!
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@RickLiebling Ron have you tried to test its antifragility in other domains? Lend it to a Harvard
fragilista and let him comment?
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@jsperera @sapinker @prospect_uk @WhyNationsFail "Refuse hon degrees, awards, listings in
"100 most...",& similar debasements of knowledge"
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@justinbassett Thanks. Will email this PM. Best, N
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@NickKunkel Hi, thanks of course I would love to.
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PROMONTORY FINANCIAL GROUP seems to be a firm designed for ex-bureaucrats to milk the
system. Corruption! https: // www.facebook.com/permalink.php?story_f bid=531413636881355&i d=13012333374
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@mujib Sorry @Guardian Bullshit Taleb DOES Not retweet compliments.
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@rajunarisetti @SalmanRushdie @mohsin_hamid @suellewellyn This is Guardian bullshit again I
use twitter mostly to DEBUNK (via negativa)
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@akraland OUi bien sur, avec l'ethique du transfert de fragilit.
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PUBLIC SERVICE SHOULD NOT BE AN INVESTMENT STRATEGY. Sarkozy's violation. A mes
amis francais. htt ps: // www.facebook.com/permalink.php?story_f bid=531413636881355&i d=13012333374
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@JoshLee_ar @daveweigel intelligent to detect the absence of upside (concavity) in engaging in a
scientific topic outside his specialty.
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@daveweigel More here to explain FRAGILITY and its OPPOSITE
htt ps: //docs.google.com/file/d/0B_31K_MP92hUNjljYjI yMzgtZTBmNS00MGMwLWI xNmQt YjMyNDFiYjY0MTJl/ edit ?hl=en_GB
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@daveweigel Wrote this to answer IDIOTIC remarks like yours [SHORT]
htt p: // www.fooledbyrandomness.com/nature-definition.pdf and [LONG] htt p:/ /arxiv.org/abs/1208.1189
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@robertwrighter @alxschn Nonzerosumness is convex. Hence AF. See book on superadditive
integral. Or here definition ht tps://docs.google.com/file/d/0B_31K_MP92hUNjljYjI yMzgtZTBmNS00MGMwLWI xNmQt YjMyNDFiYjY0MTJl/ edit ?hl=en_GB
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@Azwaw3 @carolmalouf @Beirutiyat VF?
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@ Azwaw3 @ carolmalouf @ Beirutiyat
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@Azwaw3 @carolmalouf @Beirutiyat Merci bien. A qui ai je l'honneur? Afin de remercier.
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@Azwaw3 @carolmalouf @beirutiyat zaka2 seems derived from it, as something in response
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@Azwaw3 @carolmalouf @beirutiyat vulgate bible (Latin)= multiplicatur, bad meaning. In Semitic
yzg -> grow in response
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@Azwaw3 @carolmalouf @beirutiyat also zaka2 leads to intelligence
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@Azwaw3 @carolmalouf @beirutiyat both the cedar and the word forAF (ignore Arabic tr he used
for Nakhat )
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@Azwaw3 @carolmalouf @beirutiyat in Arabic psalm 92-12 al Sadek yazka kalnakhlat wa yanmu
ka-arz Libnan (bad translator used Sadiq not Sadek
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@Azwaw3 @carolmalouf @beirutiyat bingo! Psalm 92-12 "will grow like a cedar of Lebanon" in
original : yizge -->(yazka) . Wallah 3azim
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@KentBottles Kent I read the book... not very impressed: other diet up-day down-day have more
intuition abt the science behind it.
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@fatchoi @dsquareddigest Writes on a standing desk.
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@TheIntuitInvest many mistakes in article. METAPROBABILITY not "Mental probabilistic heuristics"
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@ShlomoArgamon @ojmason My rule: if I am criticizing another author, I spend a lot of time
scrutinizing his writing. More than if praising
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@ShlomoArgamon @ojmason I suffered the spreading of a misinterpreted version of the Black
Swan. Epidemics of false interpretations. No more.
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@ShlomoArgamon @ojmason yes...what a scientist writes is there to stay for life. But people still
misinterpret by select quoting.
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@ojmason @ShlomoArgamon 140 charc enough to reveal someone is discussing scientific topic frm
journ& recycled material not scientific docs.
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@ShlomoArgamon @johnmyleswhite @sutjihadi @beaucronin @scott_bot scientists shd not write
smthg stupid on net. Can t u understand ?
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@DShaywitz @bhmunos consultants = charlatans unless proven otherwise
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@KentBottles Hi Ken I just ordered to check if the author figured out convexity from variations /
Jensen's Inequality.
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@johnmyleswhite @sutjihadi @beaucronin @shlomoargamon @scott_bot what people put on twitter
is permanent (short an option). Be careful.
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@johnmyleswhite @beaucronin @ShlomoArgamon @scott_bot As a professional stat you should go
to source, see 2nd paper https:// docs.google.com/file/d/0B_31K_MP92hUNjlj YjI yMzgtZTBmNS00MGMwLWI xNmQtYjMyNDFi YjY0MTJl/ edi t?hl=en_GB
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@michaelshermer If you don't have the analytical baggage,don't ethically change the subject of the
bk to review it ht tps:// www.facebook.com/permalink.php?story_f bid=539204862766427&i d=13012333374
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46. 28 Feb Nassim N. Taleb @nntaleb
Muscles without strength, friendship without trust, opinion without risk, change without aesthetics,
age without... htt ps: // www.facebook.com/permalink.php?story_f bid=10151363241193375&id=13012333374
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@dsquareddigest @delong Do you know the Peter Sozou paper? He does randomize hazard rate. I
used a bond default-style model and got similar
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Took advantage of a review (NATURE) by "light" fellow (Michael Shermer) to correct the definition of
ANTIFRAGILITY htt p:/ / www.fooledbyrandomness.com/nature-definition. pdf
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49. 27 Feb Book Culture @bookculture
a fantastic turnout for @nntaleb's event last night--standing room only! @randomhouse
pic.twitter.com/0pDinbXKpg
Retweeted by Nassim N. Taleb
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@carolmalouf @Beirutiyat ghair qabil llkasr= robust
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@andresangelg life expectancy is statistical; similar to unconditional insurance LE table.
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@carolmalouf @Beirutiyat mar7aba ya ahl bilede; kif elwa7ad be2oul AF bil3arabe?
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Hume and other skeptics were skeptical of experts, not traditions.
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@dsquareddigest @delong (but you don't need to make r stochastic. Can be something outside
exp.)
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@dsquareddigest @delong Effectively if you add a layer of prob. to exp[-r * x], you solve a lot of
stuff, since utility concave.
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@Wh1t3Rabbit @jeffsussna @geoffarnold @laurasmackey @JDeLuccia we could not express
"resilient" mathemacally; robust we easily could.
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@clipperhouse @GeorgiAtanasov I have a few bottles of Kefraya (red). But in a plastic cup it won't
taste great...
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@jeffsussna @geoffarnold @Wh1t3Rabbit @laurasmackey @JDeLuccia Thanks Jeff -> resilient
doesn't have precise definition (eithr Robust or AF)
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@KentBottles Looking forward to meeting you.
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@J_Rippel @umairh But we know exactly what a great book is not.
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@ThePantau @TheStalwart So indeed he is ANTIFRAGILE. Which is why it is upsetting. He didn't
get to BOOK VII (ethics of AF)
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@TheStalwart UNfortunately, no. But he didn't get "AF at the expense of others" the stop loss by
govmt
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@tbeckett @umairh They are NOT the Cliff notes of current thinking, rather of Cliff-Notes-Friendly
thinking, hence most often charlatanism.
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@chrisjkuntz @umairh 2) Seneca: a philosopher should never speak like a mountebank.
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@chrisjkuntz @umairh 1) I disagree. Great books have substance. TED = sensational versions that
are orthogonal to subtance.
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@Digitaltonto You are are misrepresenting my ideas then arguing "confusing argument with
diatribe"? Stick to logic & facts.
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@Digitaltonto Not about agreeing or disagreeing but about logical errors in interpretation.
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@Digitaltonto Illogical. Agst Neomania doesn't mean degrading all technology; no more than agst
nymphomania means degrading all sex.
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@anatadmati @ErikSchatzker Prof Admati, not the narrative, the statitistics all of your community
uses http: // www.edge.org/response-detail/23839%20
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@anatadmati @ErikSchatzker Prof Admati, I was going after them BEFORE the crisis (not 5 y
later),& your econ-finance colleagues ridiculed me
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What Kills the system makes Dimon stronger.
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MY NIGHTMARE ! RT @ErikSchatzker Dimon channels Taleb: "This bank is anti-fragile. We actually
have benefited from downturns."
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@adamgurri Very good insight. But not ALL norms.
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@mrcai You are right. But they are too inelegant!
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My book party at the most intellectual bookstore in America. Wine will be served.
htt p: //bookculture.wordpress.com/2013/02/24/book-cult ure- par t y-cult ur e/
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THEFT FROM THE TAXPAYER. CITI CEO should be getting no more than civil servant: Citi Gives
New CEO $11.5M - Forbes htt p: //onforb.es/13p9ZxH
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@boppetit The Golden rule of Isocrates (5th BC): "treat militarily weaker states as you would like
stronger states to treat you".
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@jamesurquhart @jeffsussna @swardley I am known for calling a spade a spade.
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@jamesurquhart @swardley @jeffsussna You are assuming that "calling a fraud a fraud"= vendetta.
This is immoral.
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Something a bit bothersome about Cato the Ancient and the Romans in general (as compared to the
Greeks) https:/ / www.facebook.com/permalink.php?story_fbi d=10151355884658375&id=13012333374
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@Jediphone Use LINDY effect. Should apply there.
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@swardley That's not what my book is about, you bullshitter @jamesurquhart @jeffsussna
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@swardley THis is chaos theory bullshit, another topic than mine. Rational ple read bks be4
commenting in pblc. @jamesurquhart @jeffsussna
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@swardley Not the topic of my book & approach. Read it before rehashing Dyn Sys 101
@jamesurquhart @jeffsussna
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@swardley This is a sub-footnote to BOOK 1 (/cc @jamesurquhart @jeffsussna).NOt abt dynamical
systems. Read before you make pronouncements.
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@swardley @jamesurquhart @jeffsussna sophistry. No, try to write a 3-4 page compression of the
ideas in MY book, not degenerate systems.
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@jamesurquhart @jeffsussna @swardley finally:let idiot try summarizing in 3-4 pages and I will call
him nonidiot https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B_31K_MP92hUNjljYj I yMzgtZTBmNS00MGMwLWI xNmQt YjMyNDFi YjY0MTJl/ edit ?hl=en_GB
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@jamesurquhart @jeffsussna @swardley 2/2 it takes quite a bit of mental deficit to make pblc claims
abt matters outside one's specialty
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@jamesurquhart @jeffsussna @swardley 1/2 James, he made 2 random stmts in 1 sentence 1
reduction-of-the-idiot, 1 wrong (concavity=shrt vol)
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@tonyveitchUK @MarkChangizi Hi, will look. Thanks for the tip.
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@jonsidd Thanks Jonathan
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92. 23 Feb Naval Ravikant @naval
In decisions, maximize pride (courage, duty, honor) rather than happiness. via @nntaleb
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@BrianMcCallion @botchagalupe @jeffsussna @Wh1t3Rabbit Little guys: Ganging up doesn't
make you smatter: more stupid than individually.
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@Anthropoceno thanks!
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@jeffsussna @swardley one word: idiots
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@TheDukeofAnjou @JohnJefferyPlan Pseudoscience looks a lot more scientific than real science.
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@JohnJefferyPlan Natura abhorret a vacuo
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@KentBottles Will be honored to meet.
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@JohnJefferyPlan There are negative side effects of removing religion... people start believing in
social science.
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For a journalistic mind, a statement counter to common sense reveals incoherence; for a scientific
one, it may uncover insights. [ystdy xp]
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@JohnJefferyPlan religion is a repository of ancestral heuristics... and lindy effect (see VIA
NEGATIVA discussion )
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@jlmateos amply discussed.
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103. 22 Feb J.A. Gould @jagouldmacro
Nassim Taleb and Daniel Kahneman discusses Antifragility at NYPL.mp4:
htt p: // youtu.be/MMBclvY_EMA via @youtube
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Next Tueday (Feb 26), book party at the most intellectual bookstore in America (I am inviting; wine
will be served) http://site.booksite.com/6665/events/?&list=EVC1&group=curr ent&previ ew=1
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Erudition without bullshit, intellect without cowardice, mathematics without nerdiness, ...(A letter of
advice) https:// www.facebook.com/permalink.php?story_f bid=10151349795923375&i d=13012333374
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106. 20 Feb Gav Gray @gavrgray
@BlackSwanReport my fav part: "How is risk priced right now?" NNT: "I'll tell you what I've bought..."
#ethics #skininthegame @nntaleb
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The natural benefit of a cell phone is the joy one gets finding the object after losing it. (Jensen's
Inequality) htt ps: // www.facebook.com/permalink.php?story_fbi d=10151348177223375&id=13012333374
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@sladner @KSpeicher Thanks for the compliment.
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@nickrizzo The reaction of a person of virtue!
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@bonnicit robust. At least
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After 250 reviews, finally, one I can post without feeling I am cheating somewhere
htt p: // www.amazon.com/review/R2950V2J4J5QMW/ref=cm_cr_r dp_per m
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I have a lecture @ YALE 7:30 p.m. in Linsley Chittendon Room 102 I have NO WAY to contact
organizers. Is anyone here part of it? Thanks.
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@CtrlAltDelor Thanks!
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@stephenpincock @ben_hr Not resilience at all: Convex Response to an event. See first paper in
packet https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B_31K_MP92hUNjljYj I yMzgtZTBmNS00MGMwLWI xNmQtYjMyNDFi YjY0MTJl/ edit ?hl=en_GB
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@Aelkus @DaveedGR @sutjihadi @PPC4 @jay_ulfelder @a_strezh So long as your comments
don't entail demonizing the author, there is no problem.
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@DaveedGR @sutjihadi @PPC4 @jay_ulfelder @Aelkus @a_strezh I am not engaging YOU,
getting you to show your TECHNIQUES on social media.
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@DaveedGR @sutjihadi @PPC4 @jay_ulfelder @Aelkus @a_strezh If you have disgreements,
discuss don't demonize("fields he knows nothing about")
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@DaveedGR @sutjihadi @PPC4 @jay_ulfelder @Aelkus @a_strezh What a contrast right here in
this thread between FIREFIGHTER and policy wonks.
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@a_strezh If social scientists had skin in the game, they would have stopped teaching stats with the
L-2 norm. Or addressed my paper.
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@a_strezh Then Mr Strezhnev please explain the technical problems raised in The Black Swan or
shut the fuck up http: // www.edge.org/response-detail/23839
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@sutjihadi @PPC4 Meanwhile caught 4 policy wonks trying to demonize msger avoiding msg:
@jay_ulfelder @DaveedGR @Aelkus @a_strezh
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He is the Fireman MT @PPC4 I'm honored, and you made my day. Thank you for telling me.
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@ronanfitz22 @jay_ulfelder @DaveedGR @Aelkus @a_strezh Answer the MATH or, owing to
demonizing messenger, accept the title of CHARLATANS.
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@jay_ulfelder @DaveedGR @Aelkus @a_strezh dirty tactic to demonize the accuser and NEVER
discuss his accusations. SHAME.
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@jay_ulfelder @DaveedGR @Aelkus @a_strezh Are you capable of answering this accusation
instead of of the accuser? ht tp:// www.edge.org/response-detail/23839
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@jay_ulfelder @DaveedGR @Aelkus @a_strezh Are you capable of answering this accusation
instead of pointing out the traits of the accuser?
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@jay_ulfelder @DaveedGR @Aelkus @a_strezh otherwise calling you an idiot would be very
justified.
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@jay_ulfelder @DaveedGR @Aelkus @a_strezh Try to bypass the ad hominem and say something
intelligent and scientific (if you are capable)
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@PPC4 Paul you are the fireman discussed here: http:// www. edge.org/response-detail/23839
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@flavalib Perhaps, but here I am dealing with the utility part of happiness.
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w
@csandis (skin in the game) http:// www.fooledbyrandomness.com/SandisTaleb.pdf
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@CamGregg Thanks Cam
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@flavalib no
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@p_ameline I took wealth as powerlaw distributed (reasons expl in The Black Swan) without
specifying tail exponent. Using Utility.
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@sutjihadi Of course. not Adab, but muru2a (vir=mar2).
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FOR COMMENTS: Technical note for ANTIFRAGILE: Happiness is more Robust than Wealth
htt p: // www.fooledbyrandomness.com/Robustnesshappiness.pdf
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@dennispilarinos @trengriffin We did... Tren do you have a link to the Microsoft Q&A?
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@nickrizzo If so, do you have an intelligent and concrete comment to make?
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@trengriffin Then we agree. For me virtue is tied to collective.
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@trengriffin I meant to help the collective. VIrtue as a nonselfish action.
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@trengriffin Tren, what if he did so for the sake of others?
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@trengriffin His definition of virtues are too... Prostestan ethics. Mine are linked to collective.
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@jeffheuer Thx, will look
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Virtue is the attribute that brings admiration but cannot elicit envious resentment or jealousy. TRUE?
Comments https:// www.facebook.com/permalink.php?story_fbi d=10151343488843375&id=13012333374
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@bonnicit No comment on that paper. Absolutely no comment.
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@bonnicit Will look. Thanks Trevor.
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@frankyrinpoche Max Likel is misused with fat tails. On that, another paper
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@BrankoMilan @ritwik_priya I have some problems with naive fitting of these distr. Solution: use
your own tail. htt p:/ /arxiv.org/abs/1210.1966
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@bonnicit I am looking for something equally weighted.
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@bonnicit Actually, just checked, I own it...
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@bonnicit Excellent. Equal weighted? If so, I am switching ASAP.
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@frankyrinpoche I showed its defects here: EVT fuhgetaboudit htt p:/ / www.fooledbyrandomness.com/EVT.pdf
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@ritwik_priya @BrankoMilan No Lomax (2 param model) but not important to the point that ds> dm.
Antifragile even used lognormal(s=STD)
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@ritwik_priya @BrankoMilan Hi, at alpha =2, mean/median shd be ~Sqrt[2] since ration (2^(-1)
)(-1 + )
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@ritwik_priya @BrankoMilan Alpha worldwide for wealth has been <2. Pareto's 80/20 from Italian
land registy -> alpha =1.2
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@ritwik_priya @BrankoMilan Indeed. Further INCOME has a lower alpha that WEALTH, so which
one are you talking about? I find all <2
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@ritwik_priya @BrankoMilan True; further, my model is alas messy because I have 2 parameters,
alpha and min, hence alpha not enough.
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@ritwik_priya @BrankoMilan alpha>2
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@BrankoMilan @ritwik_priya Over last 5 years, median income down 8-16% w.r. to mean
income; .1% absorbed 120-130% of growth.
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@BrankoMilan @ritwik_priya The point is that the further in the tail the more dispersion matters
rather than m
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@BrankoMilan @ritwik_priya "scale of distribution" is the eq of a standard deviation for the Gaussian
(powerlaws may not have finite varian)
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@BrankoMilan @jrhopkin @vanpapachristos The point is not GINI but to show that the tails react
more to scale of distribution than m
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@vctrjmnz @karldeeter NATO is the only hope; it allows small regions/city states to flourish
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@vctrjmnz The best thing that could happen to Europe is an orderly reversion to small states +
Large metapoliceman to avoid wars.
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@vctrjmnz A Black Swan for the turkey is a white swan for the butcher. It depends on the observer. I
believe stability = no large states.
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@dindjic @umairh I think my friends that the situation (inequality) is worse than we think
htt p: // www.fooledbyrandomness.com/Onepercent.pdf
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@felixsalmon @nickbilton @elonmusk They are missing that if data cannot necessarily tell a story, it
can DIS-confirm one (via negativa).
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@sociablephysics @Jackstilgoe You strtd turning a scientist into journalist ("gladwell") then went on
to write the article. shameful tactic.
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@sociablephysics @Jackstilgoe Who are you bullshitting? You yourself wrote "enough of the ad
hominem attacks ".
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@sociablephysics @Jackstilgoe You made the stupid mistake to go publicly ad hominem on an
author you admitted you didn't read.
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@Jackstilgoe @sociablephysics Only imbeciles can write this while a) "not a statistician",b) not
having read an author's books and papers
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@jaltucher @albiondumsday @Fresh_NY Thanks!
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@albiondumsday @jaltucher @Fresh_NY Lesson: when "answering fast", do no say negative/unfair
things abt others that u can't back up.
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@jaltucher @p_ameline The New Yorker article was not a book by N Taleb.
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@jaltucher @p_ameline Not in my books. People put certainties into models that were patently
wrong, and caused harm.
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@ynggekko @jaltucher @Fresh_NY Combination: a) extreme event, and b) not expected (epistemic
opacity). If you expect it no prblm
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@jaltucher @Fresh_NY Randomness is defined in my work as *epistemic* (lack of certainty) , so I
don't see what you are talking about.
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@jaltucher @Fresh_NY And how do they not "match" the title about being "fooled"?
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@jaltucher @Fresh_NY Please provide more tangible answers instead of vague verbiage.
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@kfogel You do not seem to wonder whether you mix honesty, and debunking fraudsters/ scam
artists for "ego". This transfer has a name.
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Bravo Elon! make the charlatans accountable. Here is my calling out NYTs Michiko Kakutani
@DShaywitz @elonmusk https:/ / www.facebook.com/permalink.php?story_fbi d=434768909929397&id=13012333374
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@EmanuelDerman @pkedrosky No, it is compatible, provided one does the occasional sprint
(convex payoff).
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The Antifragility of saying "F*** you* to fate: ht tps:// www.facebook.com/permalink.php?story_fbi d=10151337721033375&i d=13012333374
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@Untiroalaire People seem to put their own survival above their sense of honor, which leads to
systemic fragility.
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@dsquareddigest That's underestimating convexity. The same arguments leads to underestimating
payoff of tail events.
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186. 13 Feb Anthony C Veitch @tonyveitchUK
@nntaleb Re Big data / @wired: 'It's hard to get a man to understand something if his paycheck
depends upon him not understanding it' [?]
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@dsquareddigest Dan... But if you agree with this paper you agree with the central idea of what you
call my philosophy!
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@jayjacobs @georgevhulme @pkedrosky So far verbiage/cognitive dssnnce frm researchrs, nothing
on convexity prblem. As in my fight w/econ
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@AlanWedd Dragon kings? Gray swans.
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@janicemccallum @MedicalQuack You did not get my point at all. Not at all. It is abt convexity.
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@andygreencre8iv It most certainly would be great... but not easy to implement...
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@janicemccallum @MedicalQuack I fail to undrsand how invoking ur training in UChicago can be an
argument against a meta-statistical problem
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193. 11 Feb Arnaud de Frmicourt @AdeFremicourt
Selon @nntaleb:"Ns sommes ds une crise permanente, o les entrep. qui survivront seront celles
qu v u"
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@botchagalupe You seem to be absolutely rambling clueless.
View conversation
@botchagalupe You seem too unsophisticated to write abt something without getting the technical
backbone of the idea. https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B_31K_MP92hUNjljYjI yMzgtZTBmNS00MGMwLWI xNmQt YjMyNDFiYj Y0MTJl/edit ?hl=en_GB
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@tonyveitchUK @andygreencre8iv @rorysutherland Let's start a call for the National Entrepreneur
Day!
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@FlorianOtel @botchagalupe Possible. But it could also be that your intelligence/technical levels are
way too low to detect the meat.
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@AdeFremicourt Exactement. Les choses sont plus simples quand on pense en termes de "crise
permanente".
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@zjelveh @felixsalmon You mean the NEJM & Ioannidis "NOT" examples? What is your *formal*
definition of an "example"?
View conversation
@deaneckles @Noahpinion @SolomonMg Actually worse: Noise is v.convex in "P" (D), information
is concave in N (Sqrt or so).Makes it explosive
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@janicemccallum @MedicalQuack That was not commenting on the core of the article but
nitpicking. Not addressing the convexity issue.
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@__Singularity_ Thanks Michael
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@om Thanks!
View conversation
The more someone identifies with a profession or an "accomplishment" such as an award, the less
human he will be https: // www.facebook.com/permalink.php?story_fbi d=10151329871543375&i d=13012333374
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@urbnist @WiredOpinion Bonsoir. The idea was formulated & presented 12 years ago in Fooled by
Randomness. I am adding CONVEXITY of noise.
View conversation
Beware the Big Errors of 'Big Data' | Wired Opinion | htt p: //Wired.com htt p:/ / www.wired.com/opinion/2013/02/big-data- means-big-err ors-people/
View summary
Here is The Real Text (Ignore the CFA mis-reporting) LIVE from the NYPL: NASSIM TALEB &
DANIEL KAHNEMAN htt p:/ /on.nypl.org/WTYWgh
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@vjganesan If you are so involved, On Benefits is the one I have reread the most.
View conversation
@vjganesan Letters are great start. His tragedies are very different.
View conversation
@TheGailyPlanet @eric_k_hayes I bought them in NY. Will post pic when I go to Lebanon where I
left them.
View conversation
@EpicureanDeal Hello; is it from lack of courage that you conceal your identity? No skin in the
game? Are you a coward or am I mistaken?
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@wmougayar Thanks, W!
View conversation
@TheIntuitInvest And anyway thanks for the nice review.
View conversation
@TheIntuitInvest The video of the talk will be posted. People will figure out directly.
View conversation
@TheIntuitInvest DK and I were in agreement since he said that it "changed his views". Your article
reflects opposite.
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@TheIntuitInvest "Antifragility rounds out a continuum that he labels: resilience". I escape the
resilience mechanism through convexity.
View conversation
@TheIntuitInvest The fact that peers had similar take doesn't make a mistake a non mistake.
View conversation
@TheIntuitInvest We discussed in addition to Prospect Th, ANchoring, and System1/System2
View conversation
@TheIntuitInvest Of course he talked about how AF fits with Prospect Theory. The idea of people
hating vol is what he got Nobel for.
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@TheIntuitInvest Second, we provided practical suggestions (barbells). This is not a portfolio-
charlatan session abt which stocks to buy.
View conversation
@TheIntuitInvest First, the entire conversation was framed by Prospect theory, hence Kahneman's
work was not just discussed but central.
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@TheIntuitInvest Nice review but full of mistakes. About 6 mistakes.
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@knutbrown Thank you. Uncompromising is the best compliment I can ever receive.
View conversation
224. 5 Feb LIVE from the NYPL @LIVEfromtheNYPL
"A system that does not convert stressors into improvements is doomed." #antifragility @nntaleb at
#TalebKahnemanLIVE
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@evansd66 I am not angry. As you should have read in AF, just following my ethics of calling
violations violations, fakes fakes, etc.
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@evansd66 Does this answer mean you did not read the appendix? I am convinced you did not.
This is a breach of scientific standards.
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@evansd66 Let me repeat: Did you read the Appendix, Yes / No?
View conversation
@evansd66 AF ref to the violation of treating a personal essay as a scientific doc & ignoring
backups. Did u read the tech appendix?
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@Smarch3008 He is no longer alive. Can't speak ill of the departed.
View conversation
@evansd66 You should also perhaps have revealed that I did not endorse your book on risk
because I found you clueless about risk.
View conversation
@evansd66 You were ethically obligated to read them BEFORE making idiotic scientific comments
on AF (as indicated in AF).
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@adamgurri voila
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@evansd66 Dear Mr Dylan I asked you to comment on my tech doc on fragility. Are you capable of
producing an intelligent scientific comment?
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@trengriffin Then there would be a problem but I don't know details in th B R situation.
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@trengriffin Hi again Tren. If there a government stop? If so, free option. Otherwise, not a problem
for us taxpayers.
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@BAMinvestor NonKapish
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Dealing with Antifragility of enemity and using enemies for entertainment instead of obsession. For
comments. https:// www.facebook.com/permalink.php?story_fbi d=10151322741583375&id=13012333374
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Is the institutionalization of knowledge exacerbating the difference between theory and practice?
Looking for answrs htt ps:/ / www.facebook.com/permalink.php?story_f bid=10151320668808375&id=13012333374
Expand
@MishaSharikov The sad part Misha is that I testified TWICE in Congress.
htt p: // www. youtube.com/watch?v=6QiiFSOrJhQ
View media
@sanjaygb @johngapper The bus driver is on the bus. Accountants pay for mistakes. Soldiers in b.
Friedman caused a war without being harmed.
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@johngapper "You shall not have convexity/optionality (AF) at the expense of others" "If you see
fraud and don't say fraud you are a fraud"
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@johngapper Sorry I wrote a book (BOOK VII of AF) and cannot explain risk asymmetry/Golden rule
on twitter.
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@johngapper Doctors are penalized heavily. Teachers don't induce risk-taking. Economists fail the
test, except under some constraints.
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@JasonGerson @johngapper here is another version of the Hammurabi rule
htt p: // www.economist.com/news/21566446-world-fi nance-needs-f our-new-r ules-says- nassim- nicholas-tal eb-professor-risk-engineering ?zid=295&ah=0bca374e65f 2354d553956ea65f 756e0
View summary
@johngapper The only other way to work w/ the Hammurabi rule is if the trader has finite losses<
compensation through long only options.
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@johngapper Not if the trader is harmed more than any of his customers as proportion of losses to
his Net Worth.
View conversation
@johngapper AF has 200 pg on it.Most r ethically calibrated; they do not cause risk to others witht
downside to thmslves. (some politicians.
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@nntaleb @johngapper @emilybell @jeffjarvis & Mr Gapper UNLIKE you in all activities I am 1st to
pay for my errors #skininthegame
View conversation
@johngapper @emilybell @jeffjarvis Mr Gapper,u tried to to discredit me portraying me saying ALL
profsns are warped. htt p:/ / www.fooledbyrandomness.com/myths.htm
View conversation
@johngapper @emilybell @jeffjarvis which is not an honest truth-seeking debating tactic.
View conversation
The usual answers pic.twitter.com/E5jFVXgR
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@Al_Anood Your argument is the lowest form of sophistry/selfpreserving crap. I've answered in AF.
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In 1998 I was told one may be able can criticize anyone, never the press. Seemed like a meta-
problem to break.
Expand
In 1998 Perseus made me an offer for *Fooled by R*. They pulled out after they saw chptrs on jrnlsm
"we do not wnt to allienate the press".
Expand
@johngapper @emilybell @jeffjarvis Sophistry. 99% of the people have #skininthegame
View conversation
@johngapper @emilybell @jeffjarvis John Gapper, dirty tactic. 99% of people have skin in the game.
Not you. htt p: // www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/improvi ng-managers--incenti ves-by- nassim- nicholas-tal eb
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Here #skininthegame http: // www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/improving-managers--incenti ves-by- nassi m-nichol as-t aleb
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@emilybell @dansinker @jonathanstray @tomcoates @jeffjarvis @knowtheory Here is another
sample abt academia http: //edge.org/response-detail/23839
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@jochenjochen http:/ /edge.org/response-detail/23839
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@emilybell @dansinker @jonathanstray @tomcoates @jeffjarvis @knowtheory Here is an excerpt
htt p: // www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/improving- managers--incenti ves- by-nassi m- nicholas-tal eb
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@emilybell @dansinker @jonathanstray @tomcoates @jeffjarvis @knowtheory Emily let me send
you stuff on "skin in the game" (Book 7 of ANTIFR)
View conversation
@jonathanstray Konflict of Int is offset by "harm if wrong" (skin in the game)
View conversation
@emilybell @jeffjarvis Many fraudsters (like Friedman) got the P Prize
View conversation
@GabbyStern1 @emilybell @jeffjarvis @rajunarisetti Ms Stern pls explain th logical inconsistency
"grainoftruth" & generalization w/ exceptns
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@emilybell @jeffjarvis Did not say "ALL". We need a hall of fame for those who have courage.
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@ynggekko Thank you for the offer. I work alone, but can offer coffee.
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@stefaniaconti Stefania, please explain. In italiano se si vuole
View conversation
Just noticed that the number of twitter followers has been doubling every <2 months, that of FB
followers every ~year
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@felixsalmon Indeed there are exceptions... Johnson was a risk taker; he was sacked for falsifying
quotes...
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How journalism is switching from act of courage to the refuge of disconnected cowards
htt ps: // www.facebook.com/permalink.php?story_fbi d=10151318978788375&i d=13012333374
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@chattychd thanks!
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@Zelfmanager NEVER nitpick
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Great books elude summaries. Great aphorisms resist expansion. The rest is just communication.
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274. 31 Jan Nassim N. Taleb @nntaleb
@barbcfa Will do. I only read my reviews once a week.
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@barbcfa Thanks!
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For a free person, the optimal - most opportunistic - route between two points should never be the
shortest one. https:// www.facebook.com/permalink.php?story_f bid=10151312967583375&id=13012333374
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@sweetbijou1 And fragility requires absence of certainty.
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@sweetbijou1 very good. AF requires uncertainty.
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@markusandrezak If you handle the stressor by overcompensating
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@markusandrezak Excellent!
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@afoolswisdom excellent. But meaning is robust; action is antifragile.
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@BlackSwanReport Hi there I will certainly do so . Thanks
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@BobbyTwitts Not quite: this is a new account.
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@somesheep I agree Swiss are not caring. But their political/economic system works.
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@evansd66 Mr Evans this is for you to comment on (provided you understand statistics, of course).
htt ps: //docs.google.com/file/d/0B_31K_MP92hUNjljYjI yMzgtZTBmNS00MGMwLWI xNmQt YjMyNDFiYjY0MTJl/ edit ?hl=en_GB
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@michaelbolton We created a conversation out of the "accept" problem
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@JamesMarsh79 which book?
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@cashncrash I will certainly double the number of aphorisms soon.
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@adamgurri I would start with his letters. Short 2-3 p pieces.
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@jordanwander @Natalya_A VEry good, Jordan
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@MikeDinTX Not a theory, just a cohesive framework to formulate decisions.
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@michaelbolton Excellent!
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@Natalya_A Not really, more like the opposite.
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@cashncrash To be #antifragile you don't neeed FU money, only willingness/courage to live on low
income ag. upright behavior.
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@Natalya_A Hello; think of the hindsight bias.
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@stefaniaconti @cdelrosso Settembre / ottobre. S, parlo un po (l'italiano della cucina), ma non
posso scrivere un discorso intellettuale.
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@cdelrosso It is specifically designed to that idiots who rely on book reviews by journalists don't read
it at all.
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@ICSS_Soton @macduggie @carbonsmart The first is to be robust, the second to gain from
accident.
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@macduggie @carbonsmart @ICSS_Soton Someone answered here
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@macduggie @carbonsmart @ICSS_Soton Antifragility is local over a range.
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@carbonsmart @ICSS_Soton If you buy 2x insurance you are antifragile. Nothing to do with
resilience
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@livingarchitect @carbonsmart A more AntiFr than B over range { D} if and only if A more convex
than B ...This iterates to a spectrum.
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@livingarchitect @carbonsmart discontinuous responses & jumps are only piecewise linear hence
nonlinear, hence convex or concave.
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@livingarchitect @carbonsmart If usay NON-linear -> necessarily curving one way or the other. I
proved tht convex portion <=>antifragility.
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@livingarchitect @carbonsmart nonlinear is *necessarily* convex or concave over a range.
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@livingarchitect @carbonsmart Nonlinear-> locally convex or concave.The (locally) convex is
(locally) antifragile.
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@talatfakhri @MadScie77795704 Protection of the super-weak without hampering the risk-takers.
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@leonardkish @ottmark Could also be that you do not have the intelligence to get the depth.
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@_garrilla not necessarily.
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@MadScie77795704 The barbell mitigates the naturalistic fallacy (the moral ruthlessness of nature)
View conversation
@ielshareef Sorry about the mistake.The answer is to multply as much as possible to maximize the
survival of our genes --wht our ancstrs did
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@tonyveitchUK Alas, no. My schedule is here http:// www.fooledbyrandomness.com/scheduledseminars.ht m
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@ianogorman_ He is!
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@matteo_serio @amingardi @24Domenica Vuoi dire antifragile? L'Italia antifragile a cuore.
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@gapingvoid I said acdmcs/journlists less respectable thn prostitutes,but prostitutes don't write bk
revws. If they did they wd say "humble"
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@amingardi @nntaleb @24Domenica Saro a Roma 12-16 gennaio, e 24 maggio a Milano.E tu?
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@Aluarus Alvaro, gratiamque habeo librum legentibus
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@_garrilla my argument is based on convexity/nonlinear responses and short volatility.
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@amingardi @24Domenica Grazie Alberto e buon anno. Speriamo di avere conversazioni
interessanti nel 2013
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@gapingvoid Thanks!
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Please Help Fight for More Skin in the Game in 2013 @ProSyn #oped htt p:/ /po.st/l4Oine via @po_st
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@edkless Indeed, intervention a) fragilizes, b) increases moral hazard.
View conversation
@thebookslut Dear Ms Crispin, please kindly explain the difference between guru and pseudo-guru.
View conversation
@MarniChan BS! Safety net for the weak AND entrepreneurs in place of bailouts.
View conversation
Why news & debates are by/for imbeciles. https:/ / www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=10151245850348375&set=a. 10150109720973375. 279515. 13012333374&t ype=1
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326. 31 Dec Nassim N. Taleb @nntaleb
@adamgurri @valkenburgh Lets set it strght.If you buy 5x insurnce on your house, you are AF,and it
has nothing to do w/evolution.So not all.
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Courage and honor as a 2013 resolution https: // www.facebook.com/permalink.php?story_f bid=10151236113088375&i d=13012333374
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@DLRuderman Exactly or "naked (uncovered) insurance, which is why adaptability can't be just it.
View conversation
@joeyroth @Goetgeluck I had in AF an image of "tawking" v/s "doing" similar to the funnel. This one
is much more elegant.
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@smalter @nntaleb Hope she does well. Good luck.
View conversation
@adamgurri @valkenburgh There are static things that are antifragile. Financial options, hidden
convexities.
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Friends we need help with a discussion of a fragility-based precautionary principle: comments
welcome. Thx https: // www.facebook.com/permalink.php?story_f bid=400572953357485&i d=13012333374
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@theferg56 I am hyper-orthodox in the medical sense. Very mainstream.Just against overtreatment
--as per orthodox medicine.
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@jphilipwilson AF more general as it covers nonlinear responses (convex). Adaptable is small
subset.
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@JacobWolinsky Because people get upset when I don't follow them yet follow someone else. And
FB is my forum.
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@LucasWilk Thanks lucas.To live longer, I learned to ignore comments.I got mail missing the notion
of"unconditional life expect"
View conversation
Now my turn to play with the press: is Michiko Kakutani incompetent or just crazy?
htt p: // www.fooledbyrandomness.com/mishiko.htm
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@adamgurri @ATabarrok I don't mind ticking off journos, I don't want journos to claim that I am
ticking off the 99% nonphonies.
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@adamgurri @ATabarrok I just wrote a note ht tp:// www.fooledbyrandomness.com/myths.htm
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@contrariansmind Thanks Jeff!
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@michaelbolton Thanks Michael! Updated http:// www.fooledbyrandomness.com/errata.pdf
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@imran273jr Pareillement!
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@semanticwill @LSPollack To me both irresponsible and ignorant but the mystery is why the
Financial Times allows that. Liability monstrous.
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@hyper_critical Not true for ATM vol.
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@aoanla Orthogonal. I am not describing generating process too much just proving
concavity/convexity as detection mechanism. Less ambitious
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@JakeEPooh I agree.
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@semanticwill @highqoo Thanks... I've got about a mob of 1000 sissies ganging up against me
(journos) and it does not seem to be working...
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@DAChesterFrench Best is preventing Federal deficits. Move deficits to states.
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@highqoo @semanticwill Hi, thanks for the support ... What do you mean play the man not the idea?
Just curious.
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@NewWorldBuilder Thank a million.
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@MValdarno Thanks Michael.
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@DAChesterFrench Hello, decentralization is natural (look at the success of mayors). Just limit
borrowing from Federal gov.
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@BorisN No. more about reduction of fragility. Very good paper.
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354. 24 Dec SemanticWill @semanticwill
@lycaonmarcus Best part of Taleb is how pissed off he makes the pansies & wussies.
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@Jediphone Poisson is thin-tailed. Powerlaw different properties.
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@carenvy Thank you, very flattered.
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@JohnKounios Merry Xmas and Happy New Year to you and eveybody following.
View conversation
@fsalgadoc @jamesallworth Under fat tails, this is called 1/N (you need even MORE diversification
than Fin Theory)
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@fsalgadoc @jamesallworth Yes successive errors less concave.
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@jamesallworth Thx. Remember the primacy of risk management (->survival) over other
considerations.
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@jamesallworth @fsalgadoc "Statistical significance" is reached too late in complex domains.
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@jamesallworth Depends on concavity to error.
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@smc90 not all editors!
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Benefits of demonizing by members of the ICESIHWI, International Confederation of Empty Suits Infl
Harm W Impunity htt ps:// www.facebook.com/permalink.php?story_fbi d=10151226649453375&i d=13012333374&comment _id=27747958&notif_t=f eed_comment
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@IslamAlbayaty This equilibrium business is too, too complicated for us to be able to understand it
and use it...
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@historysquared My technical works on my site... There will be a paper showing the derivations...
Thanks, fellow historybuff
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@negics very very close to 0.
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@GreenRupertRead Its analog should be the indistinguishable "small minds think alike", which I
believe is largely true.
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@mildredlaya @antonellabro @acornella no toda la proteccin es malo.
View conversation
@mastrangelim Hammurabi -> eye-for-eye -> golden rule -> Rabbi Hillel ->Kant all variations from
"primum non nocer"
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@mastrangelim "Do not be in a position to harm others without being exposed to harm yourself",
clear enough since Babylon.
View conversation
To make the world safer and better, put *ethics* ahead of knowledge
Expand
@raphbaph Thanks. All these are subsets of a larger definition of "convex"
View conversation
@KoopmansMaarten Thanks!
View conversation
@c_brinkman3 Feeling better about your GPA...This is the best comment I've had about the book so
far. The best, Chad.
View conversation
@binreminded Sorry I thought you read the book where these ideas are explained. I apologize I
can't answer you.
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@binreminded Negative feedback might imply AF, not the opposite. You can have AF without neg
feedback ( convexity )
View conversation
@pkedrosky @om @LindaStone Thanks Linda. Paul Kedrosky's friends are my friends. Om please
let me know where to email you.
View conversation
@Flaneurism2 You mean homeomorphism? Anyway the noise raises the signal,which under
nonlinearities (threshold) becomes detectable.
View conversation
@Natalya_A Used to be spelled tugrit...
View conversation
@matteo_serio Erratum... here is a list http:// www.fooledbyrandomness.com/errata.pdf
View conversation
@PivotGuild @mitgc_cm use randomness/variation/stressors/uncertainty as fuel.
View conversation
@PivotGuild @mitgc_cm @NewYork_CM @pod_design Indeed! Never explain why you do creative
things on your own terms.
View conversation
@yakolev Hi, any driving shoe with thin sole.
View conversation
@markusandrezak Alas, Markus, the disease has already metastacized.
View conversation
@darcyward y g ( ). qu
same as does not imply philostochastic.
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@AchimMuellers Thanks this is the central argument missing from the Salon piece
pic.twitter.com/wl9UkhmC
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388. 29 Nov Nassim N. Taleb @nntaleb
@isomorphisms I do regress meta-meta-prob in the paper on Branching Counterfactuals page 28
(and some converge) https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B_31K_MP92hUNjlj YjI yMzgtZTBmNS00MGMwLWI xNmQtYjMyNDFi YjY0MTJl/ edi t?hl=en_GB
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@edwardrcarr @bill_easterly I am only expressin AF in functional space (response to stress) & in
probability space (convex transformation)
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@EnkelejdaMiho there are degrees of opacity and costs of mistakes
View conversation
391. 31 Oct PaulCard4 @PPC4
@nntaleb I find it fascinating and profoundly sad that I (a simple firefighter) get your work but
supposed financial and lit geniuses can't.
View conversation
392. 31 Oct Sam H @SamHam7
@nntaleb Avid fan/reader.Applaud u calling out someone w/ the balls 2 criticize what (ie antifragility)
they dont understand. #defendurwork
View conversation

365 Half of suckerhood is not realizing that what you dont like might be loved by someone else
(hence by you later); & the reverse. Fri Jul 02 16:12:09 +0000 2010
364 My idea is to be aggressive risk-taker in the 3 quadrants & extremely prudent in the 4th;
establishment does reverse http://TwitPWR.com/LoJ/ Fri Jul 02 11:54:10 +0000 2010
363 We are satisfied with natural (or old) objects but insatiable with technologies amplifying small
improvements in versions-mental treadmill Fri Jul 02 10:22:56 +0000 2010
362 For them this is a financial crisis; to me it is an intellectual crisis a crisis of civilization. Thu Jul
01 20:22:29 +0000 2010
361 The weak cannot be good. Thu Jul 01 18:21:36 +0000 2010
360 Most feed their obsessions by getting rid of them. Thu Jul 01 17:49:47 +0000 2010
359 7 PM Politics & Prose (DC); mostly about Plato elephants my visit to Berlin fragility of nation-
states Lebanese wine StendhalHuet Wed Jun 30 13:20:54 +0000 2010
358 Technology is at its best when it is invisible. Wed Jun 30 12:28:15 +0000 2010
357 Passionate hate (by nations & individuals) ends by rotation to another subject of hate;
mediocrity cannot handle more than one enemy. Wed Jun 30 12:25:58 +0000 2010
356 Saying nonfiction to bundle all these forms of writing (older than the novel) is like saying
nonprostitute to describe a class of humans. Wed Jun 30 11:39:39 +0000 2010
355 What we call fiction is when you look deep much less fictional than nonfiction; but it is usually
less imaginative. Wed Jun 30 11:37:00 +0000 2010
354 Just realized reading Stendhal that Catholic countries had more serial monogamy than today but
w/o divorce -they faced chronic widowhood . Wed Jun 30 10:27:14 +0000 2010
353 No monkey is as good-looking that the ugliest of humans no businessman worthier than the
worst of the poets. Tue Jun 29 14:14:12 +0000 2010
352 If your anger decreases with time you did injustice; if it increases you suffered injustice. Mon
Jun 28 19:41:16 +0000 2010
351 RT @ahaspel: @nntaleb But German has a related term Radler (cyclist) after the posture:
bent back above kicking feet below. Mon Jun 28 18:50:54 +0000 2010
350 English does not distinguish between arrogant-up irreverence towards the temporarily powerful
and arrogant-down directed at the small guy. Mon Jun 28 16:22:04 +0000 2010
349 Note 131 http://TwitPWR.com/Lb9/ Mon Jun 28 11:26:23 +0000 2010
348 The person you are the most afraid to contradict is yourself. Mon Jun 28 10:22:20 +0000
2010
347 If you want to annoy a poet explain his poetry. Mon Jun 28 07:21:09 +0000 2010
346 A large part of the Great Sucker Problem (GSP) is the central confusion between unobserved and
non-existent the unproven & the erroneous. Sun Jun 27 14:48:32 +0000 2010
345 In the past most were ignorant except for 1 in 1000 refined enough to talk to. Today thx to
progress literacy& media only 1 in 100000. Sun Jun 27 12:11:00 +0000 2010
344 There is a distinction between expressive hypochondria and literature just as there is one
between self-help and philosophy. Sat Jun 26 21:02:00 +0000 2010
343 Failure of 2nd order thinking (autism): he tells you a secret & expect you to keep it when he just
gave you evidence that he cant keep it. Fri Jun 25 21:26:38 +0000 2010
342 Dont talk abt progress in terms of longevity safety or comfort before looking at zoo animals
compared to those in the wildrnss. Fri Jun 25 12:08:11 +0000 2010
341 Most people fear being alone without audiovisual stimulation because they are too repetitive
when they think & imagine things on their own. Fri Jun 25 11:07:27 +0000 2010
340 It takes extraordinary wisdom & self control to accept that many things have a logic we do not
understand that is smarter than our own. Fri Jun 25 11:03:40 +0000 2010
339 We now face the choice betw those who write clearly about a subject they dont know& those
who write poorly about a subject they dont know Thu Jun 24 18:22:08 +0000 2010
338 2010 600000 books in English with few memorable quotes; c. 0 AD a handful of books with loads
of quotes. Information rich dark ages. Thu Jun 24 15:58:34 +0000 2010
337 They spend their lives writing and writing and manage to avoid producing a single quotable
sentence. Thu Jun 24 14:34:13 +0000 2010
336 Those who when discussing someones writings hint at the connection with my friend X are
most probably not his friends. Thu Jun 24 14:26:32 +0000 2010
335 Just as dyed hair makes older men less attractive what you do to hide your weaknesses makes
them more repugnant. Thu Jun 24 13:55:07 +0000 2010
334 If someone gives you more than one reason why he wants the job dont hire him. Thu Jun
24 10:53:42 +0000 2010
333 When someone says I am not that stupid it often means that he is more stupid than he thinks.
Wed Jun 23 21:16:22 +0000 2010
332 To understand the liberating effect of asceticism consider that losing all your fortune is much
less painful than losing half of it. Wed Jun 23 17:15:26 +0000 2010
331 I knew that businessmen had others write books for them; turns out they also have others read
(& summarize) books for them. Wed Jun 23 09:26:32 +0000 2010
330 We talk about romantic love not its inescapable and far more interesting mutation romantic
hate. Tue Jun 22 20:23:19 +0000 2010
329 A verbal threat is the most authentic certificate of impotence. Tue Jun 22 18:49:52 +0000
2010
328 Most of the so-called writers keep writing & writing with the hope to some day find something
to say. Tue Jun 22 07:54:19 +0000 2010
327 For so many instead of looking for cause of death when they expire we should be looking for
cause of life when they are still around. Mon Jun 21 20:41:25 +0000 2010
326 Dont complain too loud about wrongs done you you may give ideas to your less imaginative
enemies. Mon Jun 21 12:08:37 +0000 2010
325 2- Beauty is enhanced by unashamed irregularities; greatness by a facade of blunder. Sun Jun
20 23:39:04 +0000 2010
324 Its much harder to write a review for a book youve read than for a book you havent read.
Sun Jun 20 13:17:40 +0000 2010
323 The best revenge on a liar is to convince him that you believe what he said. Sun Jun 20
13:04:04 +0000 2010
322 1- We love imperfection the right kind of imperfection; we pay up for original art & typo-laden
1st editions. Sat Jun 19 16:47:33 +0000 2010
321 The magnificent believes half what he hears and twice what he says. Sat Jun 19 12:56:36
+0000 2010
320 Quite revealing of human preferences that more suicides come from shame or loss of financial &
social status than acute health problems. Fri Jun 18 20:04:21 +0000 2010
319 The deeper the river the less noise it makes (Amioun proverb). Fri Jun 18 17:48:51 +0000 2010
318 At lunch (French restrnt) they ate the salmon & removed the skin;at dinner (sushi) they ate the
skin & removed the salmon. Domain dependence Fri Jun 18 11:55:27 +0000 2010
317 Engineers can compute but not define mathematicians can define but not compute economists
can neither compute nor define. Fri Jun 18 11:50:04 +0000 2010
316 My central idea: The rationalist wants an imbecile-free world the empiricist an imbecile-proof
one. (Or better a rationalist-proof one). Fri Jun 18 11:37:35 +0000 2010
315 @City_Poems Reverse arrow: in Q&A People asked if I take my ideas into practice no-one ever
asked if I got my ideas from practice #GAIM10 Wed Jun 16 15:33:21 +0000 2010
314 Society needs prudent leaders and risk-taking error-prone followers; we got the opposite.
Tue Jun 15 15:54:11 +0000 2010
313 Many of those said to be unbribable are just too expensive. Tue Jun 15 13:12:08 +0000
2010
312 Many are so unoriginal they need to study history to find mistakes to repeat. Mon Jun 14
15:00:28 +0000 2010
311 Being unimaginative is only a problem for those who get bored easily. Mon Jun 14 14:42:22
+0000 2010
310 Ive always wondered if one could be fit and healthy without boring others with talk of diet
health & fitness. Mon Jun 14 12:13:11 +0000 2010
309 A mathematician starts with a problem and creates a solution; a consultant starts with a
solution and create s a problem. Sat Jun 12 18:38:47 +0000 2010
308 Technology can degrade every single aspect of a suckers life while convincing him that it is
becoming more efficient. Sat Jun 12 18:34:58 +0000 2010
307 The opposite of manliness isnt effeminacy; its technology. Sat Jun 12 18:18:57 +0000 2010
306 If you can identify a single reason why you and someone are friends you are not friends. Sat Jun
12 14:01:23 +0000 2010
305 An educated sucker is the best sucker. (Fat Tony) Sat Jun 12 11:05:54 +0000 2010
304 For most success is the harmful passage from the camp of the hating to the camp of the hated.
Wed Jun 09 20:25:06 +0000 2010
303 Fate is at its cruelest when a finance person ends up poor. Tue Jun 08 17:19:29 +0000
2010
302 There are designations like economist prostitute or consultant for which additional
characterization does nt add information. Mon Jun 07 11:37:55 +0000 2010
301 For a writerthe distance between enthusiastic fan & rabid detractor is as short as 2 or 3
unanswered letters; jst the perception of a snub. Sun Jun 06 22:19:26 +0000 2010
300 For most work & what comes with it have the eroding effect of chronic injury. [rev'd] Sun Jun
06 12:31:15 +0000 2010
299 Half the people lie with their lips; the other half with their tears. [rev'd] Sun Jun 06 12:28:49
+0000 2010
298 It is harder to say no when you really mean it than when you dont. Sat Jun 05 22:14:19
+0000 2010
297 For the classics philosophical insight was the product of a life of leisure; for me a life of leisure is
the product of philopsphcal insight Sat Jun 05 21:59:38 +0000 2010
296 The tragedy is that much of what you think is random is in your control and whats worse the
opposite. Sat Jun 05 21:53:20 +0000 2010
295 For most work & what come with it have the eroding effect of chronic injury. Sat Jun 05
19:32:27 +0000 2010
294 Dixeris maledicta cuncta cum hominem ingratum dixeris. [Once you've called someone ingrate
no need to say more - Publilius the Syrian]. Sat Jun 05 18:20:33 +0000 2010
293 Half the people lie with their tongues; the other half lie with their tears. Sat Jun 05 18:11:03
+0000 2010
292 Radio Open Source Nassim Nicholas Taleb: The Crisis is Just Begun: http://bit.ly/96BVo Fri Jun
04 21:27:55 +0000 2010
291 and you can be certain that a person has neither means nor will to help you when he says I
am here to help. Thu Jun 03 13:09:09 +0000 2010
290 You can be certain that a person has the means but not the will to help you when he says there
is nothing else I can do. Thu Jun 03 11:15:34 +0000 2010
289 The English have Mediterranean weather at random times; but they go to Spain because their
free hours are deterministic & rigid. [Hay Fest] Wed Jun 02 11:24:58 +0000 2010
288 Preoccupation with efficacy is the main obstacle to a poetic noble elegant or heroic life. Tue Jun
01 16:52:00 +0000 2010
287 When conflicted between two mutually exclusive choices take neither. If you can. Tue Jun
01 13:04:53 +0000 2010
286 Whatever you see around that is not perishable can be expected to be in the middle of its
lifespan BACKUP http://TwitPWR.com/JZ0/ Tue Jun 01 10:44:48 +0000 2010
285 The main disadvantage of being a writer is that there is nothing you can say or do that can get
you in trouble. [Hay Festival Wales] Mon May 31 19:09:04 +0000 2010
284 Pharmaceutical companies are better at inventing diseases to match existing drugs than
inventing drugs to match existing diseases. Sat May 29 12:53:02 +0000 2010
283 The weak shows off his strength hides his defects; the magnificent exhibits his defects like
ornaments. [Robustness] Fri May 28 16:05:19 +0000 2010
282 Corollary: whatever you see around that is not perishable can be expected to be in the middle of
its lifespan: books companies species Fri May 28 08:02:52 +0000 2010
281 The best predictor of whether a technology will be used in 10 years is if it has been in use for 10
years. (Beware: is a noisy predictor) Fri May 28 07:52:21 +0000 2010
280 In Prousts Morel demonizes Nissim Bernard a Jew who lent him money; & becomes anti-Semitic
just to escape the feeling of gratitude Thu May 27 18:09:56 +0000 2010
279 In Prousts Morel demonizes Nissim Bernard a Jew who lent him money; & becomes anti-Semitic
just to escape the feeling of gratitude. Thu May 27 17:58:27 +0000 2010
278 Fortune punishes the greedy by making him poor & the very greedy by making him rich. Thu
May 27 12:49:07 +0000 2010
277 In nature whatever is functional is elegant; in modern life the opposite. Wed May 26 16:39:30
+0000 2010
276 A friendship that ends was never one; there was at least one sucker in it. Wed May 26
15:47:38 +0000 2010
275 In poor countries regulators receive explicit bribes; in DC they get sophisticated implicit
unspoken promises to work for Corporations. Tue May 25 19:38:19 +0000 2010
274 When expressing good luck to a peer the weak wishes the opposite the strong is mildly
indifferent; but only the magnificent means it. Tue May 25 19:22:13 +0000 2010
273 The weak regrets his words more than his silence; the strong regrets his silence more than his
words; the magnificent regrets nothing. Tue May 25 17:59:14 +0000 2010
272 When he/she shouts that what you did was impardonable he/she has already started to pardon
you. Tue May 25 14:49:55 +0000 2010
271 (For Orthodox (Palamas) & Algazel (3rd cat) attempts to define God using Greek philos
universals (2nd cat) was a Western-Averroan mistake). Tue May 25 13:34:47 +0000 2010
270 Mathematically there are things we can define & compute things we can define but not
compute & things we can neither define nor compute. Tue May 25 12:56:36 +0000 2010
269 Saying the mathematics of uncertainty is like saying the chastity of sex -what is
mathematized is no longe r uncertain & vice versa. Tue May 25 12:51:32 +0000 2010
268 A scientist talking about uncertainty incompleteness unknowledge & ignorance is like a
psychopath talking about compassion. Tue May 25 11:41:40 +0000 2010
267 @ahaspel You shd not be put in a position to ax that question Tue May 25 01:43:15 +0000
2010
266 Re Venter: a nuclear accident remains relatively local and nonscalable a biological one w/
replicator will be global.I dont want this! Mon May 24 17:22:05 +0000 2010
265 2- Mother Nature proved to be vastly smarter than biologists just as the economy proved to be
vastly smarter than economists. Mon May 24 13:43:48 +0000 2010
264 1-Re Venter; In brief natural evolution is robust & takes place across ecosystem; manmade
evolution is fragile & disrupts unpredictably. Mon May 24 13:36:10 +0000 2010
263 Will talk about literatureVenters playing G.d & will be heckled by detractors tonite 7 PM B&N
Union Sq in NY http://TwitPWR.com/Jtl/Mon May 24 11:29:46 +0000 2010
262 Venters attempt: an insult to G..d; but also an insult to evolution; http://www.edge.org/#taleb
Mon May 24 11:01:56 +0000 2010
261 2- As a good filter of noise ask yourself before you read anything whether it will be still be in
print in one ten & fifty years Sun May 23 20:19:45 +0000 2010
260 1-Some write books without anything quotable (profs journos etc.); others inexhaustible (Plato
Wittgnst Cicero Mutanabbi Nietzsche..) Sun May 23 19:28:06 +0000 2010
259 Wisdom in the young is as unattractive as frivolity in the elderly. Sun May 23 17:50:56 +0000
2010
258 Lesser men rarely compliment when they really mean it. Sun May 23 17:12:58 +0000 2010
257 It is a good practice to always apologize except when you have done something wrong Sun
May 23 15:36:50 +0000 2010
256 The philosopher Demonax stopped a Spartan from beating his servant. You are making him
your equal he said. *in Lucian of Samosata+ Sun May 23 15:22:48 +0000 2010
255 By praising someone for his lack of defects you are also implying his lack of virtues. Sun
May 23 12:56:34 +0000 2010
254 You can tell how uninteresting a person is by asking him whom he finds interesting. Sat
May 22 22:15:01 +0000 2010
253 2- In real life you dont know who really won or who really lost (except too late); but you can tell
who is heroic and who is not. Sat May 22 13:27:49 +0000 2010
252 Games were created to give nonheroes the illusion of winning. (Gen ludic fallacy) Sat
May 22 12:58:31 +0000 2010
251 With terminal disease nature lets you die with quick suffering; medicine lets you suffer with
prolonged dying. (revised) Sat May 22 09:01:14 +0000 2010
250 With terminal disease nature lets you die without suffering; medicine lets you suffer without
dying. Fri May 21 22:51:26 +0000 2010
249 The only definition of an alpha male: if you try to be an alpha male you will never be one.
Fri May 21 18:01:34 +0000 2010
248 I will be heckled and bled to death by journalists & various detractors Monday 7 PM at the B&N
Union Store in NY http://TwitPWR.com/Jtl/ Fri May 21 13:16:22 +0000 2010
247 Some half-men (usually finance people) are so unfit for success that when they make it they
look like dwarves dressed in giants clothes. Fri May 21 11:58:21 +0000 2010
246 @TheStalwart @FelixSalmon Can you heckle me at the B&N Union Sq Monday Lecture? I never
get tough questions. Thu May 20 21:57:40 +0000 2010
245 The curious mind embraces science; the gifted & sensitive the arts; the practical business; the
leftover becomes an economist. Thu May 20 21:13:18 +0000 2010
244 @TheStalwart You forget the origin of wine <-Uinum <- phoenician Yayn from Bekaa Valley.
6000 years uninterrupted Thu May 20 17:26:46 +0000 2010
243 Ending media torture prematurely as book zoomed to the NYT bestseller lst. May still lecture but
no swans just aphorisms & Lebanese wine. Thu May 20 17:14:38 +0000 2010
242 It takes a lot of intellect & confidence to accept that what makes sense doesnt really make
sense. Thu May 20 16:09:29 +0000 2010
241 People tend to fake indifference or extreme love; never hate. Wed May 19 22:42:36 2010
240 @tom_peters Thats substractive epistemology: knowledge of what does not work is more
ROBUST to representational error/ randomness. Wed May 19 19:06:46 2010
239 People focus on role models; it is more effective to find anti-models people you dont want to
be like when you grow up. Wed May 19 18:55:31 2010
238 If my detractors knew me better they would hate me even more. Wed May 19 17:48:13
2010
237 Thinkers & artists care the most about the few who love them; politicians & vulgar professionals
care the most about the few who hate them. Wed May 19 13:25:55 2010
236 There is nothing Ive learned & still remember that I did not learn by myself; & nothing they
tried to teach me that ended up sticking. Wed May 19 10:38:12 2010
235 Skills that transfer: street fights off-path hiking seduction broad erudition. Skills that dont:
school gamessports- whats organized Tue May 18 22:14:37 2010
234 2- You exist if & only if your conversation (or writings) cannot be reconstructed w/clips from
other conversations having taken place. Tue May 18 19:25:41 2010
233 1- A businessmans conversation can be entirely reconstructed w/clips from other conversations
taking place at the same time on the planet. Tue May 18 19:20:50 2010
232 Evidence that the ancient Levantines valued the virtue of megalopsychia or before
Christian era http://TwitPWR.com/Jih/ Tue May 18 15:23:14 2010
231 Your reputation is harmed the most by what you say to defend it. Tue May 18 12:11:35
2010
230 Mandelbrots genius is in achieving aesthetic simplicity without having recourse to smoothness;
producing harmony in highly jagged surfaces Tue May 18 10:29:58 2010
229 (For those who still dont get the point sports skills dont transfer outside the narrow domain)
Mon May 17 22:08:37 2010
228 (expl: free and wise humans dont compete on a metric genralized ludic fallacy). Mon
May 17 13:34:59 2010
227 Competitive athletes are inferior to both humans and animals unless faster than a cheetah or
stronger than a bull. Mon May 17 13:13:53 2010
226 Wit signals intelligence stripped of nerdiness. Mon May 17 13:06:45 2010
225 Catalogue raisonn (in progress) http://TwitPWR.com/JcO/ Mon May 17 10:35:05 2010
224 In classical renderings of prominent figures males are lean & females are plump; in modern
photographs the opposite. Sun May 16 18:17:33 2010
223 The difference between magnificence & arrogance is in what one does when nobody is looking.
Sun May 16 11:35:41 2010
222 Greatness starts with the replacement of hatred with polite disdain. Sun May 16 10:59:12
2010
221 When individuals go bust their debt dont transfer to their children; when states do even the
unborn is liable. Deficits are immoral. Sun May 16 10:46:38 2010
220 The classical mans worst fear was inglorious death; the modern mans worst fear is just death.
[corrected thx] Sat May 15 19:07:50 2010
219 In much of our history only few men but almost all women were able to procreate. Equality is
more natural to women than men. Sat May 15 18:34:44 2010
218 You may outlive your strength; never your wisdom. Sat May 15 18:24:14 2010
217 When a woman says intelligent about a man she also means handsome; when a man says
dumb about a woman he also means pretty. Fri May 14 19:43:16 2010
216 BusinessBookReaders with my prose are like deaf persons in a Puccini opera: they may like a
thing or two while wondering whats the point? Fri May 14 13:01:37 2010
215 The characteristic feature of the loser is to bemoan mankinds flaws biases & irrationality
without exploiting them for fun and profit. Fri May 14 12:16:07 2010
214 (cmmtry: This government deficit thing shows how people individually ethical can be turned
collectively into unethical monsters. Shame.) Fri May 14 10:53:37 2010
213 Stimulus w/ deficit even if effective is as immoral as borrowing from your grandchildren
(without asking them) to repay your gambling debt Fri May 14 10:47:37 2010
212 Promising someone good luck as return for good deeds sounds like a bribe; perhaps the
remnant of archaic pre-deontic pre-classical morality Fri May 14 10:17:55 2010
211 Was on Bloomberg TV impressed: vastly more professional than competitors; better thoughtful
staff even the make-up was superior. Thu May 13 13:58:18 2010
210 Deficits are similar to carbs: the more you eat the hungrier you get. Thu May 13 12:45:11
2010
209 and worsens with the replacement of memories with other memories. Wed May 12 15:59:45
2010
208 Decline starts with the replacement of dreams with memories; & reverses with the replacement
of dreams with other dreams. Wed May 12 14:24:49 2010
207 (comment: your brain is most active when you make it completely free -as in the shower).
Wed May 12 13:04:37 2010
206 You will be civilized the day you can spend time doing nothing learning nothing & improving
nothing without feeling slightest guilt. Wed May 12 11:34:54 2010
205 Real philosophers require only long walks to figure out what mere people need crises accidents
serial bailouts & calamities to understand Tue May 11 10:59:04 2010
204 Detecting dullness is best skill: Some pursuits like piracy are dull from inside (most of the time)
though glamorous from the outside. Mon May 10 21:57:27 2010
203 Slaves (in Roman and Ottoman days) unlike todays employees did not need to flatter their boss.
Mon May 10 19:58:58 2010
202 Public companies like human cells are programmed for apoptosis suicide through hidden risks.
Bailouts make the process more entertaining. Mon May 10 19:53:35 2010
201 You have a real life if & only if you do not compete with anyone in any of your pursuits. Mon
May 10 09:48:23 2010
200 The difference between technology & slavery is that slaves are fully aware that they are not free.
(Generalized Sucker Problem) Sun May 09 11:56:59 2010
199 It is as difficult to avoid bugging others with advice on how to exercise as it is to stick to an
exercise schedule. Sat May 08 12:05:33 2010
198 Substractive epistemology: the sucker thinks Truth is search for knowlege; the nonsucker knows
Truth is search for ignorance. Thu May 06 20:26:44 2010
197 For company you tend to prefer those who find you interesting over those you find interesting.
Thu May 06 08:41:28 2010
196 Robustness & Fragility: For the robust an error is information; for the fragile an error is an error.
Wed May 05 16:22:07 2010
195 The main difference between gov. bailouts and smoking is that in some rare cases the statement
this is my last cigarette holds true. Wed May 05 06:06:55 2010
194 Love & happiness: Those who talk about love tend to be in love; but those who talk about
happiness tend to be not happy. Mon May 03 19:26:21 2010
193 You have a real life when most of what you fear has the titillating prospect of adventure. Sun
May 02 18:28:17 2010
192 The only objective definition of aging is when a person starts to discuss aging. Sat May 01
15:23:00 2010
191 @RealJeffMurdock. Just hit like button Thu Apr 29 22:14:45 2010
190 Experimenting with 2-way dialogue on http://TwitPWR.com/IgP/ Thu Apr 29 17:30:19
2010
189 You are only secure if you can lose your fortune without the added worse insult of having to
become humble. (My great-g-g-grandfathers rule Thu Apr 29 13:54:53 2010
188 What would you rather be; intellectually humble but perceived as arrogant or intellectually
arrogant but perceived as humble? Wed Apr 28 23:12:28 2010
187 [comm: Nothing wrong w/book as peacock tail signaling of superiority & ego trip;it's the
commercial agenda outside the bk that corrupts it] Wed Apr 28 22:34:25 2010
186 [comm: after a long media diet I realize that there is nothing that's not (clumsily) trying to sell
you something. I only trust my library] Wed Apr 28 22:00:24 2010
185 The book is the only medium left that hasnt been corrupted by the profane: everything else on
your eyelids manipulates you with an ad. Wed Apr 28 21:43:54 2010
184 (commentary: efforts at building social political and medical utopias have caused nightmares;
many cures & techn came frm martial efforts) Wed Apr 28 11:52:14 2010
183 The worst damage has been caused by competent people trying to do good;the best welfare has
been brought by incompetent ones trying to harm. Wed Apr 28 11:41:01 2010
182 Social media are antisocial health foods are empirically unhealthy knowledge workers are
ignorant & social sciences arent scientific Tue Apr 27 18:38:11 2010
181 and with businessbooks I skip both the text & the footnotes. Tue Apr 27 13:52:28 2010
180 With regular books I read the text & skip the footnotes; with those written by academics I read
the footnotes & skip the text. Tue Apr 27 09:45:46 2010
179 I lost my moleskine-style notebook with 60 unpublished aphorisms on Lufthansa Dusseldorf-
Newark Friday. I dont know if it is good or bad. Tue Apr 27 00:12:23 2010
178 There are two types of people; those who try to win and those who try to win arguments. They
are never the same. (Wisdom of Fat Tony) Mon Apr 26 18:23:20 2010
177 You are guaranteed a repetition when you hear the declaration never again. Sun Apr 25
23:43:55 2010
176 When someone starts a sentence with simply you should expect to hear something very
complicated. Sun Apr 25 20:49:39 2010
175 Nothing is more permanent than temporary arrangements deficits truces& relationships;&
nothing is more temporary than permanent ones. Sun Apr 25 20:07:04 2010
174 People usually apologize so they can do it again. Sun Apr 25 13:26:33 2010
173 Those who do not think that employment is systemic slavery are either blind or employed.
Sun Apr 25 11:04:45 2010
172 Just like poets and artists bureaucrats are born not made; it takes normal humans extraordinary
effort to keep attention on such tasks Sat Apr 24 21:46:04 2010
171 An AntiPlatonist finding new treasures in Plato note 128 http://TwitPWR.com/HWI/ Sat Apr
24 13:35:10 2010
170 (cont) filmmakers to impress other filmmakers painters to impress art dealers; but authors
who write to impress book editors fail! Fri Apr 23 22:05:30 2010
169 Costs of specialization:Architects build to impress othr archtcts;models are thin to impress othr
models;academics to impress othr acdmcs Fri Apr 23 19:50:34 2010
168 @Erwan_Le_Corre Just as smooth surfaces comptve sports and specializd. work fossilize the
mind-body compttve academia fossilizes the soul Fri Apr 23 09:41:27 2010
167 @yzilber There is no strictly rational definition of rationality which is why I cringe when I
hear the word used by social scientists. Fri Apr 23 08:58:32 2010
166 @yzilber Compliance with the straightjacket of narrow (Aristotelian) logic & avoidance of fatal
inconsistencies are not the same thing. Fri Apr 23 08:48:10 2010
165 Attendd a symposium named after a drinking party in whch nonnerds talked abt love; alas no
drinking but mercifully nobody talked abt love Fri Apr 23 06:24:22 2010
164 The most painful moments are not those spent with uninteresting people; it is with
uninteresting people trying to be interesting. Thu Apr 22 16:24:13 2010
163 Another Fat Tony sucker problem:It is as difficult to change someones opinions as it is to
change his tastes. Thu Apr 22 15:55:22 2010
162 Erwan Le Corre the most naturally fit man on the planet Note 127 http://TwitPWR.com/HIs/
Wed Apr 21 14:29:23 2010
161 Hatred is much harder to fake than love. You hear of fake love; never of fake hate. Wed
Apr 21 00:36:21 2010
160 Hatred is much harder to fake than love. Tue Apr 20 20:42:17 2010
159 To value a person is consider the difference between how impressive he/she was at the first
encounter & at the most recent one. Tue Apr 20 16:42:25 2010
158 Upon arriving to the hotel the fellow had a porter carry his luggage; I later saw him lifting
weights in the gym. (Generalized Ludic fallacy Tue Apr 20 13:03:27 2010
157 It seems that it is the most unsuccessful people who give the most advice particularly for writing
and financial matters. Tue Apr 20 12:27:39 2010
156 The suckers trap is when you focus on what you know and what others dont know rather than
the reverse. Tue Apr 20 12:12:47 2010
155 Real mathematicians understand completeness; real philosophers understand incompleteness;
the rest dont really understand anything Tue Apr 20 00:24:42 2010
154 (How? errors in SPACE prgrm are Gaussian;errors in fields that matter are Black-Gray-Swannish;
govts hve exhstd the Gaussian domains).Sorry Mon Apr 19 22:55:18 2010
153 Sadly Obama talking ab going to Moon/Mars (linear domain) when we know nothing abt the
complex (volcanos econ climate).SPACE builds hubris Mon Apr 19 22:26:56 2010
152 You can be certain that the CEO of a corp has a lot to worry about when he announces publicly
that there is nothing to worry about. Mon Apr 19 13:09:00 2010
151 3-Corrol: Same with happiness; we dont know what it means how to reach it but we know
extremely well how to avoid unhappiness. Mon Apr 19 00:18:25 2010
150 The most depressing thing about couples arguing in a restaurant is that they are almost always
unaware of the true subject of argument. Sun Apr 18 22:46:13 2010
149 2-Corollary: The best way to spot a charlatan: someone who tells you what to do instead of
what NOT to do. (Stockbrokers Consultants) Sun Apr 18 22:05:41 2010
148 1- Knowledge is subtractive not additive; what we subtract (reduction by what does not work
what NOT to do) not what we add (what to do) Sun Apr 18 22:03:36 2010
147 The best test of robustness to reputational damage is your emotional state (fear joy boredom)
when you get an email from a journalist.(GS) Sun Apr 18 14:55:25 2010
146 You can only convince those persons who can benefit from being convinced. Sun Apr 18
14:41:26 2010
145 People used to wear ordinary clothes weekdays and formal attire on Sunday. Today it is the
exact reverse. [Sacred & Profane] Sun Apr 18 13:25:23 2010
144 2- If you know in the morning what your day looks like with any precision you are a little bit
dead -the more precision the more dead. Sun Apr 18 13:00:28 2010
143 (answr) Not rewarmed Rousseau rather to borrow the expr. putting back Plato on his feet (he
stand on his head)& systematzng Nietzsche Sat Apr 17 20:13:30 2010
142 @johndurant @Erwan_Le_Corre 2- If you know in the morning what your day looks like with any
precision you are a little bit dead. Sat Apr 17 12:19:00 2010
141 1- We are Paleo hunters; only truly ALIVE in these moments when we improvise; no schedule
just small surprises & stimuli frm envrmnt. Sat Apr 17 12:14:48 2010
140 Badmouthing is the only genuine expression of admiration. Fri Apr 16 14:48:51 2010
139 The test of whether you really liked a book is if you reread it the rest is spin -UPDATED
http://TwitPWR.com/Hkd/ Thu Apr 15 21:09:37 2010
138 There is no intermediate state between ice & water but there one is between life & death:
employment. Thu Apr 15 20:15:03 2010
137 I trust people who make a living lying down or standing up more than those who do so sitting
down. (From a flaneur who reads in bed (revisd) Thu Apr 15 19:31:29 2010
136 The opposite of enemy is a dull life. Thu Apr 15 18:12:25 2010
135 People often need to suspend their self-promotion; someone in their lives they do not need to
impress. This explains dog ownership. Thu Apr 15 11:16:35 2010
134 @drebesd no Nietzsche while great stylist did not have Platos clarity & systematizing mind;
NOBODY Anti-Platonist comes close to Plato Wed Apr 14 20:21:14 2010
133 Hatred is love with a typo somewhere in the computer code correctable but very hard to find.
Wed Apr 14 19:45:25 2010
132 In 2500 y no human came w/ the brilliance depth elegance wit& imagination matching Plato to
displace him & protect us from Pl legacy. Wed Apr 14 19:03:10 2010
131 @tom_peters I agree; it is harmless to entertain philistines who would otherwise be into sports
econ books have caused harm. Wed Apr 14 11:51:36 2010
130 Biz books: a category invntd by bookstores for writngs that have no depth no style no empirical
rigor & no linguistic sophistication Wed Apr 14 10:53:05 2010
129 The economy in brief: they are calmly waiting in line to be slaughtered while thinking it is for a
Broadway show. Tue Apr 13 18:40:53 2010
128 Hard science gives sensational results with a horribly boring process; philosophy gives boring
results with a (cont) http://tl.gd/rafdb Mon Apr 12 14:36:47 2010
127 Technologys double punishment is to make us both age prematurely and live longer. Mon
Apr 12 11:26:30 2010
126 You can replace lies with truth; but myth is only displaced with a narrative. Sun Apr 11
17:19:50 2010
125 They agree that chess training only improves chess skills but disagree that classroom training
(almost) only improves classroom skills. Sun Apr 11 15:59:59 2010
124 Never rid someone of an illusion unless you can replace it in his mind with another illusion.
Sun Apr 11 11:43:16 2010
123 (Cont) The beauty of conscious ignorance if you can practice it is that it makes things infinite.
Sat Apr 10 21:45:33 2010
122 @blackswanreport Thanks; I gave them a bland 15 min summary of my old problemabsolutely
nothing new. Sat Apr 10 21:44:15 2010
121 Something finite but with unknown upper bound is epistemically equivalent to something
infinite. I call this epistemic Infinity. Sat Apr 10 21:42:11 2010
120 To be a philosopher is to know by reasoning and reasoning only what others can only learn from
their mistakes. Fri Apr 09 19:17:45 2010
119 For everything I use boredom in place of a clock as a biological wristwatch under constraints of
politeness. Fri Apr 09 16:20:05 2010
118 You are rich if and only if money you refuse tastes better than money you accept. Fri Apr
09 13:37:01 2010
117 I wonder if crooks can conceive that honest people can be shrewder than them. Fri Apr 09
11:00:00 2010
116 Note 122 in the notebook http://TwitPWR.com/GOE/ Fri Apr 09 00:21:12 2010
115 (Cont) An individual has a conscience feels shame & honor. The collective (institutions) does not
aggregate them -despicable bureaucrats. Thu Apr 08 13:01:37 2010
114 Institutions cant have the same virtues (honor truthfulness courage loyalty tenacity generosity)
as individuals. It makes us fragile. Thu Apr 08 12:23:10 2010
113 What makes us fragile is that institutions cannot have the same virtues (honor truthfulness
courage loyalty tenacity) as individuals. Thu Apr 08 12:16:26 2010
112 I trust everyone except those who tell me they are trustworthy. Wed Apr 07 21:03:45 2010
111 Technology is the unrelenting mollification of man that self-inflicted injury Wed Apr 07
13:44:06 2010
110 Help! Help! I have to concentrate all my problems in one slogan and 15 minutes Need
suggstions. Thanks followers http://TwitPWR.com/GEf/ Tue Apr 06 19:34:20 2010
109 A genius is someone with flaws harder to imitate than his qualities. Tue Apr 06 14:32:30
2010
108 It is easier to disguise ignorance than knowledge. Tue Apr 06 13:07:51 2010
107 It is the appearance of inconsistency& not its absence that makes people attractive. [why they
put Socrates to death] Sun Apr 04 18:50:05 2010
106 It is the appearance of inconsistency& not its absence that makes people attractive. Sun Apr
04 17:19:16 2010
105 Some reticent people use silence to conceal their intelligence; but most do so to hide the lack of
it. (Revised) Sun Apr 04 14:39:20 2010
104 Some reserved people use silence to hide their intelligence; but most do so to conceal the lack
of it. Sun Apr 04 13:45:54 2010
103 Usually what we call good listener is someone with skillfully polished indifference. Sat Apr
03 15:50:01 2010
102 The three most harmful addictions are heroin carbohydrates and a monthly salary. Fri Apr
02 17:45:51 2010
101 Before checking the news today check how much the 400-700 hours of nongossip media
exposure in 2007 helped you make sense of 2008 etc. Fri Apr 02 12:24:17 2010
100 Platonic minds expect life to be like film w defined endings.APlatonic ones expect film to be life
& except fr death distrust all ending Thu Apr 01 23:47:23 2010
99 The opposite of success isnt failure it is name dropping. (There are no obj definitions of failure
& success there are for ) Thu Apr 01 19:35:37 2010
98 Most of what they call humility is successfully disguised arrogance. Thu Apr 01 15:40:32
2010
97 The tragedy of virtue is that the more boring unoriginal and sermonizing the proverb/tweet the
harder it is to implement. Wed Mar 31 14:29:36 2010
96 To see if you like where you live: check if you are as happy returning as you were leaving. Also
applies to work/relationships Wed Mar 31 14:04:17 2010
95 My problem of knowledge is that there are many more books on birds written by ornithologists
than books on birds written by birds. [OPACITY] Wed Mar 31 00:28:50 2010
94 Mathematics is to knowledge what an artificial hand is to the real one. Do not amputate to
replace. Tue Mar 30 21:53:52 2010
93 Pomponius Atticus severely ill tried the Stoic way to take his own life. Having chosen starvation
he was cured of his illness. Tue Mar 30 11:01:43 2010
92 Pure generosity is when you help the ingrate. Every other form is self-serving
[Cont:genrosity/Kantian ethics] Mon Mar 29 14:50:33 2010
91 For the ancients forecasting historical events was an insult to the God(s); for me it is an insult to
science. Mon Mar 29 13:24:09 2010
90 A maxim/tweet allows me to have the last word without even starting a conversation. Sun
Mar 28 21:42:42 2010
89 Since Cato the 1st sign of aging is when one starts blaming the new generatn for shallowness
& praising the previous one for its values Sun Mar 28 21:38:18 2010
88 No author should be considered as having failed until he starts writing about writing. Sun
Mar 28 15:29:41 2010
87 The tragedy of the information age is that the toxicity of data increases much faster than its
benefits. Worse (cont) http://tl.gd/ldno7 Sun Mar 28 13:10:01 2010
86 Unrequited hate is vastly more diminishing for the self than unrequited love. You cant react by
demonizing. Sat Mar 27 18:29:23 2010
85 I may forgive someone for harming me; I cant possibly forgive anyone for boring me. Sat Mar
27 18:08:06 2010
84 (comm2: Nothing wrong with generous acts with warm glow or salvation; they are not to be
linguistically conflated with deontic actions) Sat Mar 27 17:02:11 2010
83 (Comment: A generous act is precisely what should aim at NO reward neither financial nor social
nor emotional; deontic not utilitarian) Sat Mar 27 16:48:57 2010
82 I wonder if those who advocate generosity for its rewards notice the inconsistency or if wt they
call generosity is an investment strategy Sat Mar 27 16:35:57 2010
81 Just as there are authors who enjoy having written and others whp enjoy writing there are
books you (cont) http://tl.gd/l4h9r Sat Mar 27 16:15:13 2010
80 Ralph Nader incorruptible: this is the 2nd time in my life I encounter someone who does not
have any fake cell (cont) http://tl.gd/l2gkv Sat Mar 27 13:15:33 2010
79 (For those too slow to get my point: we gloss over great financial crimes (bankers) great cases of
incompetence (Bernanke et econ establ).. Fri Mar 26 21:49:33 2010
78 Mediocre men tend to be outraged by small insults but passive subdued & silent in front of very
large ones Fri Mar 26 21:01:51 2010
77 True humility is when you can surprise yourself more than others; the rest is either shyness or
good marketing. Fri Mar 26 15:30:17 2010
76 Since Plato Western thought has focused on True/False; high time to shift it to Robust/Fragile &
social epistemology to Sucker/Nonsucker Fri Mar 26 14:36:49 2010
75 Economics cannot digest the idea that the collective (& the aggregate) are disproportionately
less predictable than individuals Fri Mar 26 12:12:16 2010
74 People reserve standard compliments to those who do not threaten their pride; the others they
praise by calling arrogant Fri Mar 26 12:00:58 2010
73 The imagination of the genius vastly surpasses his intellect; the intellect of the academic vastly
surpasses his imagination Thu Mar 25 20:17:01 2010
72 The 4 most influential modrns Darwin Marx Freud & (early) Einstein were scholars but not
academics. Hard to do genuine wrk w institutions Thu Mar 25 19:42:44 2010
71 It is easier to remember your emails that were not answered than emails you did not answer
Thu Mar 25 18:12:24 2010
70 A good tweet/maxim shd 1) surprise you 2) be true (countrintuitv) & 3) be symmetric (one
assertion one negation) or rythmic Thu Mar 25 16:42:17 2010
69 The fool views himself more unique and others more generic; the wise views himself more
generic and others more unique Thu Mar 25 16:29:25 2010
68 Corrollary: Someone who says I am busy is either declaring incompetence (and lack of control
of his life) or trying to get rid of you. Thu Mar 25 15:11:37 2010
67 Only in recent history has working hard signaled pride rather than shame for lack of talent
finesse & mostly sprezzatura Thu Mar 25 12:14:20 2010
66 Academia is to knowledge what prostitution is to love; close enough on the surface but to the
nonsucker not exactly the same thing [2nd ed Wed Mar 24 20:05:13 2010
65 Rumors are only valuable when they are denied. Tue Mar 23 19:03:30 2010
64 You only way to know whether you liked a book is if you re-read it -the rest is spin
www.fooledbyrandomness.com/favbooks.html Fri Mar 19 12:08:58 2010
63 Writers are remembered for their best work politicians for their worst mistakes; & businessmen
are almst never remembered. [repost/error] Mon Mar 15 13:10:05 2010
62 The 20th C was the bankruptcy of the social utopia. The 21st will be that of the technological
one. [From one Procrustean bed to another.] Sun Mar 14 12:53:08 2010
61 In nature we never repeat the same motion. In captivity (office gym commute sports) life is just
repetitive stress injury. No randomness Sat Mar 13 17:51:36 2010
60 Using as excuse others failure of common sense is in itself a failure of common sense. Fri Mar
12 17:33:19 2010
59 Dubai borrowed to put vanity buildings on postcards; America and W. Europe need to borrow to
just survive. Fri Mar 12 12:52:12 2010
58 We unwittingly amplify commonalities with friends dissimilarities with strangers & contrasts
with enemies. Thu Mar 11 23:30:16 2010
57 The mark of a mediocre mind is the subdued and passive reaction in front of the truly
exceptional. Thu Mar 11 19:32:22 2010
56 [Explanation: The biggest error since Socrates has been to believe that lack of clarity is the
SOURCE of all our ills not the result. ] Wed Mar 10 19:22:28 2010
55 Mental clarity is the child of courage not the other way around. Wed Mar 10 19:07:42 2010
54 What they call play (gym travel) looks like work;what I call work (effortless daydreaming) looks
like play.They lose freedom trying harder. Wed Mar 10 11:27:38 2010
53 The differences between Goldman Sachs & the mafia: GS has a better legal-regulatory expertise;
but the mafia understands public opinion. Tue Mar 09 15:13:17 2010
52 Common minds find similarities in stories (& situations) finer minds detect differences [Essay on
the Universal & the Particular] Mon Mar 08 08:47:00 2010
51 I wish to say some day about someone Voil un homme! as Napoleon said upon meeting
Goethe: mixture of passion & intellect (& elegance too) Sun Mar 07 13:45:20 2010
50 bermen tolerate others small inconsistencies though not the large ones;losers tolerate
others large inconsistencies though not small ones Fri Mar 05 14:16:58 2010
49 If you want people to read a book tell them it is overrated. Sun Feb 28 21:07:15 2010
48 Their sabbatical is to work six days and rest for one; my sabbatical is to work for (part of) a day
and rest for six. Sun Feb 28 15:05:56 2010
47 City-states organize by tinkering; nation-states produce bureaucracies empty suits Bernankes
deficits and the toobigtofail. Too obvious. Sat Feb 27 14:49:33 2010
46 answ:[ If you can't detect (w/out understanding) the difference betw sacred & profane you'll
never know what religion means. Same with art ] Fri Feb 26 15:36:29 2010
45 Atheism/materialism means treating the dead as if they were unborn. I wont. By respecting the
sacred you reinvent religion. Fri Feb 26 12:47:14 2010
44 I wonder if a lion (or a cannibal) would pay a high premium for free-range humans. [modern
bondage] Thu Feb 25 16:00:39 2010
43 Writing is the art of repeating oneself without anyone noticing. Wed Feb 24 20:40:59 2010
42 You know you have influence when people start noticing your absence more than the presence
of others. Tue Feb 23 23:26:43 2010
41 Dream to be a janitor in a philosophy department came true!
http://fooledbyrandomness.com/philo-lecture.htm Tue Feb 23 19:07:00 2010
40 (cont) what they call literature I call journalism; what they call journalism I call gossip & what
they call gossip I call voyeurism. Tue Feb 23 15:54:34 2010
39 How superb to become wise without being boring; how sad to be boring without being wise
[Bernanke]. Mon Feb 22 11:30:39 2010
38 The role of the media is best seen in the journey from Cato the elder to Sarah Palin. Do some
extrapolation if you want to be scared. Sun Feb 21 12:12:23 2010
37 [Ethics Cognitive Dissonnance & Diffusion of Responsibility Chap why we need to worry about
econ "risk experts" & other charlatans] Sun Feb 21 11:49:23 2010
36 Ethical man accords his profession to his beliefs instead of according his beliefs to his profession.
Rarer and rarer since middle ages. Sun Feb 21 11:35:32 2010
35 Most people write so they can remember things; I write so I can forget them. Sat Feb 20
20:29:06 2010
34 Corollary to Moores laws: every ten years collective wisdom degrades by half. Sat Feb 20
17:58:08 2010
33 I wonder whether a bitter enemy would be jealous if he discovered that I hated someone else.
Sat Feb 20 17:25:52 2010
32 What they call philosophy I call literature; what they call literature I call journalism; and what
they call journalism I call gossip. Sat Feb 20 15:58:23 2010
31 It is much harder to be a Stoic when wealthy powerful and respected than when destitute
miserable and lonely. [s. VII] Sat Feb 20 15:37:55 2010
30 Academics are only useful when they try to be useless and dangerous when they try to be useful.
Sat Feb 20 13:03:47 2010
29 Success is to be in middle adulthood what you dreamed to be in late childhood. The rest comes
from loss of control. Sat Feb 20 10:42:44 2010
28 A good foe is far more loyal far more predictable and to the clever far more useful than any
admirer Fri Feb 19 23:16:22 2010
27 You will get the most attention from those who hate you. No friend no admirer and no partner
will flatter you with equal curiosity. Fri Feb 19 22:27:53 2010
26 Mediterraneans scorn instructions but bow to authority; Anglo-Saxons bow to instructions but
scorn authority. Fri Feb 19 21:25:00 2010
25 Most modern technologies are deferred punishment. Fri Feb 19 20:48:45 2010
24 Evolution does not teach by convincing but by destroying. [Fat Tony on why Robert Merton univ
tenures in econ and bailouts are dangers] Fri Feb 19 15:55:50 2010
23 The Stoic sage shd withdraw frm public efforts when unheeded & state is corrupt beyond
repair.[Seneca] Wiser to wait for selfdestruction. Fri Feb 19 11:26:47 2010
22 There is nothing deemed harmful (in general) that cannot be beneficial in some particular
instances. Universals are weaker under complexity. Thu Feb 18 23:18:31 2010
21 The average of expectations is typically > than the expectation of averages. (Dont cross a
river because it is on average 4 f deep) Thu Feb 18 13:04:13 2010
20 Medieval man was a cog in a wheel he did not understand; modern man is a cog in a more
complicated system he thinks he understands. [Ch. 5] Thu Feb 18 11:47:25 2010
19 Giving businessreaders my book: like giving vintage Bordeaux to drinkers of Diet Coke and
listening to their comments about it [TBS-2nd ed] Thu Feb 18 11:21:47 2010
18 They will envy you for your success for your wealth for your intelligence for your looks for your
status but rarely for your wisdom Wed Feb 17 21:49:24 2010
17 The idea is to NEVER answer critics just aim to stay in print make sure people will be reading
me long after they are dead. Tue Feb 16 16:24:10 2010
16 Modernity: We created youth without heroism age without wisdom and life without grandeur.
Tue Feb 16 11:53:34 2010
15 It is much easier to scam people for billions than for just millions. [on Madoff & US gov-1st
Lesson in the Epistemology of Fat Tony] Sun Feb 14 10:46:52 2010
14 Charm lies in the unsaid the unwritten and the undisplayed. It takes mastery to control silence.
Fri Feb 12 10:20:15 2010
13 We are better at (involuntarily) DOING out of the box than (voluntarily) THINKING out of the box.
Thinking is just ornamental; for show-off Fri Feb 12 08:29:11 2010
12 I read nothing from the past 300 years; I drink nothing from the past 3000 years; but I talk to no
ordinary man over 40. Thu Feb 11 12:09:21 2010
11 In science you need to understand the world; in business you need others to misunderstand it.
Wed Feb 10 11:12:28 2010
10 CNBC journalists are imbeciles. You need skills to get a BMW skills + luck to become a Buffet -
> into Buffet has no skills. Imbeciles. Tue Feb 09 14:04:24 2010
9 Edmund Phelps got the Nobel for writings no one reads theories no one uses and lectures no
one understands. [Panel in Moscow] Mon Feb 08 10:38:16 2010
8 Education makes the wise slightly wiser but makes the fool vastly more dangerous.
[Overconfidence Chapt 4] Mon Feb 08 10:11:03 2010
7 We ask why is he rich (or poor)? not why isnt he richer (poorer)?;why is the crisis so deep?
not why isnt it deeper?. *Chapter 4+ Sat Feb 06 18:50:03 2010
6 I trust those who earn their living lying on their back more than those who do so sitting on a
chair (hint: I read in bed) Mon Feb 01 18:13:00 2010
5 Dont trust a man on a salary -except if it is minimum wage. Those on bondage &
would do anything to feed a family. *Chapter 3+ Mon Feb 01 14:48:29 2010
4 Id rather be a janitor in a philosophy department than Chaired Prof at Harvard Business School;
or flaneur in NY than a hotshot at Davos Wed Jan 27 14:05:21 2010
3 I now take a hot bath after reading emails from businessmen or journalists; I then feel purified
from the profane until the next email. Thu Jan 21 15:39:23 2010
2 We worry about too big but the biggest error-prone centralized top-down institution in the
world is the US Gov. It is getting bigger. Tue Oct 06 22:16:46 2009
1 You cannot express the holy in terms made for the profane; but you can discuss the profane in
terms made for the holy Wed Jul 08 00:16:04 2009

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