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The SIJ Transactions on Computer Science Engineering & its Applications (CSEA), Vol. 2, No. 3, May 2014
 
ISSN: 2321-2381 © 2014 | Published by The Standard International Journals (The SIJ) 53
 
 Abstrac
 — 
In this study a deterministic mathematical model is developed to investigate the spread of malaria in  Nyamira town. The model has seven non
 – 
 linear differential equations which describe the spread of malaria with three state variables for mosquitoes and four state variables for humans which are
 
,
,
,
,
,
and
 
. The existence and stability of disease-free and endemic malaria equilibria is analyzed. Key to the analysis is the definition of the basic reproductive number
0
 which was derived by use of next generation method. The basic reproduction number for Nyamira town is found to be
0
 = 0.0806. The disease- free equilibrium is locally asymptotically stable, if the basic reproduction number is less than one and the endemic equilibrium exist provided that the basic reproduction number is greater than one. Ordinary differential equations were used to model malaria where humans and mosquitoes interact and infect each other.  Numerical simulations show that reducing current biting rate of female Anopheles mosquitoes by 5% and reducing susceptible humans could assist Nyamira town to achieve malaria free status by the year 2030. If, in addition, the number of days it takes to recover from malaria infection were reduced to ten days malaria free status could be achieved by the year 2020.
Keywords
 — 
Anopheles Mosquitoes; Basic Reproduction Number; Compartmental Model; Deterministic Mathematical Model and Malaria.
I.
 
I
NTRODUCTION
 
ALARIA is a life threatening infectious disease caused by a parasite called Plasmodium which is transmitted through the bites of infected female anopheles mosquitoes. In the human body the parasites multiply in the liver and they infect red blood cells. There are four different species causing the human malaria disease:  plasmodium falciparum, plasmodium vivax, plasmodium ovale and plasmodium malaria [WHO, 2009, 2010]. Malaria is a parasitic vector borne disease endemic in many parts of the world [Nita. H. Shah & Jyoti Gupta, 2013]. Our motivation was to understand how the disease is spread and the aim of this research is to develop a model for the spread of malaria in Nyamira town considering that population is not constant but there are new borns and migrants whereby  previous models considered constant population. At present at least 300 million people are affected worldwide. Many infectious diseases including malaria are preventable, yet they remain endemic in many communities like Abagusii in  Nyamira town due to lack of proper, adequate and timely control policies [Anderson & May, 1991]. An infectious disease is that is transmitted from person to another. The endemicity and prevalence of malaria varies within and amongst countries due to factors such as resistance of the malaria parasites to anti malarial drugs. Ironically in countries where malaria is most prevalent, its prevention and necessary health precautions are not often a priority nor a sustained one. Almost all areas of high endemicity lie in developing countries where inadequate drainage provides large stagnant water reservoirs which are ideal breeding sites for Anopheles mosquitoes. There are about 300
 – 
 500 million annual cases of malaria worldwide with 1
 – 
 3 million deaths (Roll Back Partnershi
 p 2005). About 40% of the world’s
 populations live in malaria endemic areas. Although the incidence of malaria has been rising in the last few decades due to increasing parasite drug
 – 
 resistance and mosquito insecticide
 – 
 resistance, recently significant resources have
M
*Department of Pure and Applied Mathematics, Jomo Kenyatta University of Agriculture and Technology, Nairobi, KENYA. E-Mail: osesam2007{at}yahoo{dot}co{dot}uk **Department of Pure and Applied Mathematics, Jomo Kenyatta University of Agriculture and Technology, Nairobi, KENYA. E-Mail: jksigey{at}jkuat{dot}ac{dot}ke ***Department of Pure and Applied Mathematics, Jomo Kenyatta University of Agriculture and Technology, Nairobi, KENYA. E-Mail: jokelo{at}jkuat{dot}ac{dot}ke ****School of Mathematics, University of Nairobi, Nairobi, KENYA. E-Mail: jmkwoyo{at}uonbi{dot}ac{dot}ke *****Department of Pure and Applied Mathematics, Jomo Kenyatta University of Agriculture and Technology, Nairobi, KENYA.
Samwel Oseko Nyachae*, Johana K. Sigey**, Jeconiah A. Okello***, James M. Okwoyo**** & D. Theuri*****
A Study for the Spread of Malaria in Nyamira Town
 – 
 Kenya
 
The SIJ Transactions on Computer Science Engineering & its Applications (CSEA), Vol. 2, No. 3, May 2014
 
ISSN: 2321-2381 © 2014 | Published by The Standard International Journals (The SIJ) 54
 
 been made available to malaria control programs worldwide to reduce malaria incidence and prevalence. Comparative knowledge of the effectiveness and efficacy of different control strategies is necessary to design useful and cost effective malaria control programs. The simulations are conducted using a statistical computing program known as R [Danso-Addo, 2009].
II.
 
ITERATURE
R
EVIEW
 
The literature on the mathematical modeling for communicable diseases is vast and plays a unique role in comparing the effects of control strategies used individually or in packages [Sandip Mandal et al., 2011]. Mathematical modeling has flourished since the days of Ross (1911), who was the first to model the dynamics of malaria transmission and Macdonald (1957) who ex
 pounded on Ross’ work,
introducing the theory of super infection. Using data from the Garki project (1980) many studies have been carried out on the epidemiology of malaria and one of the most outstanding is the mathematical model proposed by Dietz et al., (1993) which Nedelman (1983) analyzed in detail [Gatton et al., 1996]. Further works on the subject include: Singer et al., (1996) and the review by Nedelman. In a Ph D. dissertation, Chitnis (2008) described a compartmental model for malaria transmission based on a model by Ngwa & Shu (2000); defined a reproduction number
R
0
 for the expected number of secondary cases that one infected individual would cause through the duration of the infectious period and showed the existence and stability of diseases
 – 
 free equilibrium points and endemic equilibrium points. He computed the sensitivity indices for
R
0
 and the parameters in the model. Chitnis et al., (2006) presented a similar bifurcation analysis of an extension to the model in Chitnis (2008), defining
R
0
 and showing the existence and stability. This model will extend the model in Chitnis et al., (2006) and evaluate the sensitivity indices in
R
0
. This model is different from previous models in that it generalizes the mosquito biting rate and immigration in a logistic model for the human population with disease
 – 
 induced mortality. Previous models assumed that mosquitoes have a fixed number of bites per unit time. This model allows a more realistic modeling of situations where there is a high ratio of mosquitoes to humans and where human availability to mosquitoes is reduced through vector control interventions. Human migration is common in most parts of the malaria
 – 
 endemic world and plays an important role in malaria epidemiology [Diekmann & Heesterbeek, 1999]. As in Ngwa & Shu (2000) this model also allows humans to be temporarily immune to the disease, while still transmitting malaria to mosquitoes. Strategies for controlling the epidemiology of many infectious diseases such as malaria include a rapid reduction in both the infected and susceptible  population via treatment as in Tumwiine et al., (2007) mathematical model for the transmission of malaria. The dynamics of many epidemic models has been extensively analyzed in the assumption that the duration of immunity is independent of exposure Hence the conventional definition of immunity as absolute refractoriness to infection may be too restrictive as immunity may confer protection against severe illness without eliminating chronic, mild infections. Thus asymptomatic immune carriers may be infective. This  phenomenon of incomplete immunity permitting transmission is known to exist for malaria and complicates disease control strategies as the reservoir of infection now includes symptomatic and asymptomatic infected individuals. It is clear that the assumption of constant population size in epidemiological models which is relatively valid when studying diseases of short duration with limited effects on mortality may no longer be valid when dealing with endemic diseases such as malaria [Koella & Antia, 2003]. In such diseases the effects of changes in population size and disease
 – 
 induced mortality are far from negligible and in fact can have a crucial influence on the dynamics of the disease. In a Masters Dissertation, Mwamtobe (2010) developed a basic deterministic malaria model with two latent periods in the non-constant host-vector populations and formulated a model with intervention strategies by adding the protected and treated classes in order to assess the potential impact of  protection and treatment strategies on the transmission dynamics of malaria.
III.
 
M
ODEL
F
ORMULATION
 
The human population is divided into compartments: susceptible humans (
), Exposed humans (
), Infectious humans (
) and Recovered humans (R).The mosquitoes are divided into three Compartments: susceptible mosquitoes (
), Exposed mosquitoes (
) and Infectious mosquitoes (
). Applying the definitions of the state variables,  parameters interpretation from table 1, 2 and figure 1, the system of non
 – 
 linear differential equations which describe the dynamics of malaria are formulated as below:
Table 1: State Variables for the Malaria Model (1)
Parameter Description
 Susceptible humans
 Exposed humans
 Infectious humans R Recovered humans
 Susceptible mosquitoes
 Exposed mosquitoes
 Infectious mosquitoes Table 2: Model Parameters and their Interpretations for the Malaria Model
Parameter Description
 
Recruitment rate of humans
 
 
Recruitment rate of mosquitoes
 
 
Force of infection of humans from susceptible state to exposed state
 
 
Force of infection of mosquitoes from susceptible state to exposed state
 
 
Rate of progression of humans from the exposed state to the infectious state
 
 
Rate of progression of mosquitoes from the exposed state to the infectious state
 
The SIJ Transactions on Computer Science Engineering & its Applications (CSEA), Vol. 2, No. 3, May 2014
 
ISSN: 2321-2381 © 2014 | Published by The Standard International Journals (The SIJ) 55
 
 
Clinical treatment-recovery rate of humans from the infectious state to the recovered state
  Natural death rate for humans
 
 Death of mosquitoes caused by natural death rate and insecticides
 
 Disease-induced death rate for humans
 Rate of loss of immunity for humans
ℎ
 
Probability of transmission of infection from an infectious mosquito to a susceptible human provided there is a bite
ℎ
 
Probability of transmission of infection from an infectious human to a susceptible mosquito provided there is a bite
 
Biting rate of mosquitoes
 


 =
 
+
 

 
 
 
 
 


 = 
 
 
 
 
 

 


 =
 
 
 I 
h
 
 
+
 
 ) I 
h

 =
I
h
 
 
R
R


 =
 
−
S
m
 
S
m
 


 =
S
m
 
E
m
 
 
E
m
 


 =
E
m
 
 
I
m
 (1)
Figure 1: Compartmental Model for Malaria Transmission
with the initial conditions: S
h
(0) = S
h0,
E
h
(0) = E
h0
, I
h
(0) = I
h0
, R (0) = R 
0
, S
m
(0) = S
m0
, E
m
(0) = E
m0
, I
m
(0) = I
m0
 where
 =
 

∅
 
and
 =
ℎ
∅
 equations (1) is the malaria model. In the model, the term
∅
 denotes the rate at which the susceptible humans
 
, becomes infected by infectious female mosquitoes
 
 and
ℎ
∅
 refers to the rate at which the susceptible mosquitoes
 are infected by infectious humans
 
. It was important to note that the rate of infection of susceptible human
 by infected mosquito
 is dependent on the total number of humans
 available per vector, The total population sizes are N
h
= S
h
 + E
h
+ I
h
 +
 
and  N
m
= S
m
 + E
m
 + I
m
 with their differential equations


 =


 +


 +


 +

 =
 
 

 
 

 


 =


 +


 +


 =
 

 (2)
 3.1.
 
Disease
 – 
 Free Equilibrium
Disease
 – 
 free equilibrium points are steady state solutions where there is no malaria in the human population or  plasmodium parasite in the mosquito population. We can define the diseased classes as the human or mosquito  populations that are exposed or infectious that is,
 ,
,
 
and
. In the absence of the disease this implies that is
=
=
=
=
 0 and when the right hand side of a non
 – 
linear system (1) is set zero we have
 
+
 

 
 
 
 

 
= 0
 
 
 
 

 = 0
 
 
 I
h
 
(
 
+
 
 ) I
h
= 0
 
I
h
 
 
R
R = 0
 
−
 
 

 = 0
 
 
 
 

 = 0
 
 

 = 0 The above equations reduces to
 
 
0
 =
0
 
 

0
 = 0 (3) this implies that
0
 =
 
0
 =
 
(4) Thus the disease
 – 
 free equilibrium point of malaria model (1) is given by;
 =
(
0
 ,
0
 ,
 
0
 ,
 
0
,
0
 ,
 
0
,
0
) = (
 
 ,
0,
 
0, 0,
 
 ,
0, 0)
 
(5) which represent the state in which there is no infection in the society.(in the absence of malaria)
 3.2.
 
Basic Reproduction Number,
 
We use the next generation operator approach as described by Diekmann et al., (1990) to define the basic reproduction number R 
0
 as the number of secondary infections that one infectious individual would create over the duration of the infectious period, provided that everyone else is susceptible. Reproduction number
R
0
 
is the threshold for many epidemiology models, it determines whether a disease can invade a population or not. When R 
0
< 1 each infected individual produces on average less than one new infected individual so we would expect the disease to die out. On the other hand if R 
0
 >1,each individual produces more than one new infected individual so we would expect the disease to spread in the population. This means that the threshold quantity for eradicating the disease is to reduce the value of
0
to be less than one. We determine R 
0
using the next generation approach.

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