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El USD sube y cotiza ahora firmemente por encima de su media móvil de 55 días en la mayor parte de los cruces (pero no en el USDJPY). Este movimiento está
confirmando el colapso de correlación negativa del viernes y sugiere que las subidas del USD tendrán más esperanzas a corto plazo. Esto significa también que es
probable que las acciones se vean sometidas a presión.
El S&P500 bajó ligeramente y tontea ahora con el soporte de la línea de tendencia desde marzo (1085 hoy). El análisis técnico apunta a una relación riesgo-
recompensa que favorece “comprar en caídas”, pero solamente por encima del soporte de la línea de tendencia.
Geithner trata de extender el programa TARP de 700.000 millones de dólares hasta el próximo mes de octubre.
Publicaciones de ganancias
País Hora (GMT) Nombre GPA prevista GPA anterior Comentario
(G(GMT)(GMT)
Informe Diario de Mercado
2 120
1,5
100
80
0,5
60
0
-0,5
40
30-jul 30-sep 30-nov 30-jan 30-mar 30-maj 30-jul 30-sep 30-nov
10-12-2008 10-02-2009 10-04-2009 10-06-2009 10-08-2009 10-10-2009
US Breakeven 10 Year Saxo CDS Index
USD breakeven 10 Year – an expression for measuring Credit Default Swaps are expressions for the
inflation expectations. perceived default risk in a company. Now at 52.
AAA and BAA Corporate Bonds vs. 30yr US Treasuries
EURUSD Opt. Vol.
35 7
30 6
25 5
20 4
15 3
2
10
1
5
0
0
apr-08 jul-08 okt-08 jan-09 apr-09 jul-09 okt-09
nov-07 jan-08 mar-08 maj-08 jul-08 sep-08 nov-08 jan-09 mar-09 maj-09 jul-09 sep-09 nov-09
EUR-USD OPT VOL 1W EUR-USD OPT VOL 1M EUR-USD OPT VOL 1Y Moody BAA - US Generic Govt 30 Year Yield Moody AAA - US Generic Govt 30 Year Yield
Volatility at different time horizons. Too low, now? Spreads are easing, but still showing tight
corporate debt markets.
CEE-German Govt. Bond Spreads CBOE SPX VOLATILITY INDEX
12 35
30
10
25
8
20
6
15
4
10
2 5
0
0
maj-09 jun-09 jul-09 aug-09 sep-09 okt-09 nov-09
feb-09 mar-09 apr-09 maj-09 jun-09 jul-09 aug-09 sep-09 okt-09 nov-09
CBOE SPX VOLATILITY INDX
GDMA Hungarian - German Czech Republic - German Poland - German
1
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