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ISE 423 Statistical Quality Control: Process Analysis

Alexander Davis
Abstract:
The purpose of this document is to analyze
the data that was reported from the
Watfactory simulation. The analysis will
cover numerous tools that were taught in the
ISE 423 class this semester, including control
charts and basic capability ratios. The sigma
limits and summary statistics were also
determined and noted in this document.
Introduction:
Using the Watfactory Virtual Process
simulation, data was created in the form of ten
input variables (x1-x10) and three output
variables (y100-y300). The final product is
part number y300. All of the data was
generated randomly and assumed to follow a
normal distribution- this was verified later in
the document (Watfactory).
This data was analyzed using Microsoft
Excel and MiniTab to answer the following
questions:
1. Provide descriptive statistics of the
output and input variables.
2. Is the process in statistical control?
3. Is the process capable?
4. What is the sigma level?
5. What is the faction nonconforming for
this process?
After analyzing the data, a project charter
was filled out to address one of the problems
that was evident from the data. Steps to
complete the project were also to be provided.
1. Descriptive Statistics
Microsoft Excel was used to calculate the
descriptive statistics of each input variable
and output variable. The results of this
analysis can be seen below, in Exhibits 1-3.
Histograms of the output variables can be
found in Appendix 1A.


Exhibit 1. Summary Statistics for outputs, x1 and x2

Exhibit 2. Summary Statistics for x3-x6

Exhibit 1. Summary Statistics for x7-x10

2. Is the Process in Control?
To answer this question, Minitab was used.
Minitab was able to create Xbar and S charts
to quickly give a summary of how the process
was operating. S charts were used instead of
R charts because a subgroup size of 50 was
used. 50 is much greater than twelve, so the S
chart was the correct choice instead of the R.
This created 20 subgroups for the charts.
After the charts were created, it was
easily seen that the input variable x3 was the
only process to plot out of control. All nine of
the other input process plotted in control.
There existed one point from x3 that appeared
Statistic y100 y200 y300 x1 x2
Mean -0.31475 -1.716 -0.9975 2.5124 5.24575
Standard Error 0.200126 0.20485 0.209939 0.247305 0.074164
Median -0.25 -1.75 -1.125 2.4 5.25
Mode 0.5 -2.5 0.5 -0.2 5.5
Standard Deviation 6.32854 6.477938 6.638859 7.820468 2.345271
Sample Variance 40.05042 41.96368 44.07444 61.15973 5.500295
Statistic x3 x4 x5 x6
Mean 2.1588 4.9133 2.5547 1.9021
Standard Error 0.047476 0.059701 0.152317 0.2273
Median 2.2 4.9 2.5 1.9
Mode 2.6 6.9 2.5 -2.8
Standard Deviation 1.501332 1.887913 4.816698 7.187856
Sample Variance 2.253997 3.564217 23.20058 51.66527
Statistic x7 x8 x9 x10
Mean 5.77445 2.5849 5.0654 2.9413
Standard Error 0.042999 0.220844 0.118118 0.046851
Median 5.8 2.4 5.2 3
Mode 6.05 5.4 6.8 3.1
Standard Deviation 1.359759 6.983708 3.735221 1.481546
Sample Variance 1.848944 48.77217 13.95187 2.194979
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outside the control limits; below the lower
control limits on the S chart, to be specific.
The same could not be said for the
output variables. Two of the output variables,
y200 and y300 both had points plotting out of
the control limits: two from y200 (one above
and one below on the X bar chart) and one
from y300 (one above the upper control limit
on the X bar chart).
A few samples of these control charts
can be found in Appendix 1B, including the
out of control processes.

3. Is the process capable?
To determine capability, the standard
deviation and the specification limits of the
process must be known. Also, the data must
be normal in distribution. Before we can find
the capability, these requirements must be
satisfied.
The Watfactory website lists that the
specification limits on the final output
variable, y300, is -14 and 14. These are the
only specification limits provided, so we can
only find the capability of the final output,
which is the capability of the entire process.
To ensure normality, Minitab was
used. The final output data was plotted on
eight different goodness of fit tests to
guarantee that it was normal in nature
(Montgomery, 2009). The full results can be
found in Appendix 1C, but the goodness of fit
test for the normal distribution can be seen
below, in Exhibit 4.

Exhibit 2. Goodness of Fit Test for y300

Taking this data and plugging it into
Minitab, we obtain that the process capability
Cp = 0.72 and its Cpk = 0.67. This can be
seen in Exhibit 5 below. The full Minitab
output can be seen in Appendix 1C.


Exhibit 3. Capability Chart
Since the output y300, is less than 1 it is
not capable. Because y300 is the final output, and
is not capable, the entire process is not capable.
4. What is the sigma level?
To find the sigma level of the process, the
following equation can be used:
(

) (1)
Subbing in the value of Cpk gives us the following:
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So the sigma level of the process is:

5. What is the fraction nonconforming for this
process?
To the fraction nonconforming is used to
find out how many parts per million can be
expected to be nonconforming. The equation is:
(2)
The Minitab output from the capability
chart of the final output, y300, provides us with a
PPM estimation (see Appendix 1C). Having this
PPM (Observed PPM Total = 41000), we can use
the equation and back out the fraction
nonconforming, p. The equation becomes:

(3)
This calculation returns a p value of .041.
Expressed as a percentage, the fraction
nonconforming for the entire process is 4.1%.
Conclusion:
Using y300, the final output, it is determined that
the entire process is not in statistical control and
also not capable:
Y300 has one point that plots above the
upper control limit on the Xbar chart, and
is thus deemed out of control.
The Cp being less than one showed that
the process was not capable.
Using the Cpk, the process is currently
operating at a sigma level of 3.51.
Using the PPM, the fraction
nonconforming, p, is found to be 4.1%.




References:
Montgomery, Douglas C., Introduction to Statistical
Quality Control, sixth edition, Hoboken, NJ:
Wiley, 2009.
"Watfactory Login." Faculty of Mathematics. Web.
<http://www.student.math.uwaterloo.ca/~stat4
35/login.htm>


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Appendix 1A: Output Variable Histograms


15 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15
60
45
30
15
0
18 12 6 0 -6 -12 -18
150
100
50
0
18 12 6 0 -6 -12 -18
120
90
60
30
0
y100
F
r
e
q
u
e
n
c
y
y200
y300
Mean -0.3147
StDev 6.329
N 1000
y100
Mean -1.716
StDev 6.478
N 1000
y200
Mean -0.9975
StDev 6.639
N 1000
y300
Histogram of y100, y200, y300
Normal






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Appendix 1B: Control Charts for Out of Control Output Variable Processes

Test Results for Xbar Chart of y200
19 17 15 13 11 9 7 5 3 1
0
-2
-4
Sample
S
a
m
p
l
e

M
e
a
n
_
_
X=-1.716
UC L=0.978
LCL=-4.410
19 17 15 13 11 9 7 5 3 1
8
7
6
5
4
Sample
S
a
m
p
l
e

S
t
D
e
v
_
S=6.316
UC L=8.235
LCL=4.397
1
1
Xbar-S Chart of y200

TEST 1. One point more than 3.00 standard deviations from center line.
Test Failed at points: 16, 20

Test Results for Xbar Chart of y300
19 17 15 13 11 9 7 5 3 1
2
0
-2
-4
Sample
S
a
m
p
l
e

M
e
a
n
_
_
X=-0.998
UC L=1.760
LCL=-3.755
19 17 15 13 11 9 7 5 3 1
8
7
6
5
4
Sample
S
a
m
p
l
e

S
t
D
e
v
_
S=6.467
UC L=8.432
LCL=4.502
1
Xbar-S Chart of y300

TEST 1. One point more than 3.00 standard deviations from center line.
Test Failed at points: 20




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Test Results for S Chart of x3
19 17 15 13 11 9 7 5 3 1
2.7
2.4
2.1
1.8
1.5
Sample
S
a
m
p
l
e

M
e
a
n
_
_
X=2.159
UCL=2.798
LCL=1.520
19 17 15 13 11 9 7 5 3 1
2.00
1.75
1.50
1.25
1.00
Sample
S
a
m
p
l
e

S
t
D
e
v
_
S=1.498
UCL=1.954
LCL=1.043
1
Xbar-S Chart of x3

TEST 1. One point more than 3.00 standard deviations from center line.
Test Failed at points: 13




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Appendix 1C: Best Fit Plots and Capability Charts

20 0 -20
99.99
99
90
50
10
1
0.01
y300
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
520 500 480 460
99.99
99
90
50
10
1
0.01
y300 - Threshold
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
100 10 1 0.1 0.01 0.001
99.99
90
50
10
1
0.01
y300 - Threshold
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
100 10 1
99.99
90
50
10
1
0.01
y300 - Threshold
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
2-Parameter Exponential
AD = 205.941
P-V alue < 0.010
3-Parameter Weibull
AD = 0.743
P-V alue = 0.032
Goodness of Fit Test
Normal
AD = 0.240
P-V alue = 0.776
3-Parameter Lognormal
AD = 0.216
P-V alue = *
Probability Plot for y300
Normal - 95% CI 3-Parameter Lognormal - 95% CI
2-Parameter Exponential - 95% C I 3-Parameter Weibull - 95% CI
0 -30 -60
99.99
90
50
10
1
0.01
y300
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
60 30 0
99.99
99
90
50
10
0.01
y300
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
100 10
99.99
99
90
50
10
1
0.01
y300 - Threshold
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
40 0 -40
99.99
99
90
50
10
1
0.01
y300
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
3-Parameter Gamma
A D = 0.369
P-V alue = *
Logistic
A D = 0.911
P-V alue = 0.010
Goodness of Fit Test
Smallest Extreme V alue
A D = 13.222
P-V alue < 0.010
Largest Extreme V alue
A D = 11.133
P-V alue < 0.010
Probability Plot for y300
Smallest Extreme V alue - 95% CI Largest Extreme V alue - 95% CI
3-Parameter Gamma - 95% CI Logistic - 95% CI


18 12 6 0 -6 -12 -18
LSL USL
LSL -14
Target *
USL 14
Sample Mean -0.9975
Sample N 1000
StDev (Within) 6.50025
StDev (Ov erall) 6.63886
Process Data
Cp 0.72
CPL 0.67
CPU 0.77
Cpk 0.67
Pp 0.70
PPL 0.65
PPU 0.75
Ppk 0.65
Cpm *
Ov erall Capability
Potential (Within) Capability
PPM < LSL 26000.00
PPM > USL 15000.00
PPM Total 41000.00
Observ ed Performance
PPM < LSL 22733.49
PPM > USL 10521.29
PPM Total 33254.78
Exp. Within Performance
PPM < LSL 25083.08
PPM > USL 11940.20
PPM Total 37023.28
Exp. Ov erall Performance
Within
Overall
Process Capability of y300