HSBC Global Overview March 2014 PDF

HSBC Global Connections Report
March 2014
The near-term outlook for
global economic growth
remains patchy, suggesting
that trade will accelerate only
gradually in the near term.
Economic growth is rising in the US and UK, and
although the Eurozone is moving from contraction to
modest expansion, the recovery there remains slow.
Emerging market growth may pick up from 2013
levels but remain subdued relative to pre-crisis growth
rates, not helped by a renewed bout of volatility in
nancialmarkets.
Nevertheless, the underlying structural factors
supporting long-run growth potential in the emerging
markets remain intact, underpinning our expectation that
these economies will be the key source of trade growth
over the medium term.
Global Overview
Forecast data modelled by Oxford Economics,
based on HSBC Global Research macro data.
Summary
Trade conditions are expected to improve over
the next six months according to the Trade
Condence Index (TCI) survey, with just over
half of respondents expecting a rise in trade.
Over the medium term, the development of
a strong middle class in countries such as China
and India presents signicant opportunities for
Western brands that can establish a foothold
in these markets, as well as emerging-market
rms that can use their local knowledge to
spurgrowth.
With emerging markets targeting Research &
Development (R&D) investment to scale the
value chain in the high-tech sector, this illustrates
the need for developed economies to invest in
innovation to remain competitive.
We expect trade in high-tech goods to outpace
growth in total merchandise exports, resulting in
the value of high-tech exports increasing more
than three-fold by 2030.
This global trade report
contains a special focus on
trends in the high-tech sector.
We investigate whether trade
in high-tech goods is helping
developing countries to
catch up to the industrialised
nations, or whether high-tech
industries are helping the
industrialised nations to
retain their lead over the
emerging markets.
This question is especially pertinent given the leading
role of the high-tech sector in the export-oriented
industrialisation strategies of many economies in
developing Asia. The rapid specialisation in high-tech
exports is most evident in China, which has grown to
become the worlds leading exporter in this sector.
But a closer look at global production networks reveals
that developing economies such as China capture only
a small share of the total value-added of these products
in the global supply chain.
This suggests that the internationalisation of supply
chains for high-tech products has in fact strengthened
the technological lead of companies in the developed
world. However, the economies of developing Asia
are now increasing their technological know-how and
moving up the value chain to develop high-tech products
of their own. This suggests that there are positive
knowledge spillovers for developing economies that
integrate into global supply chains. We conclude that the
high-tech sector therefore plays a positive role in helping
emerging markets catch up with industrialised nations.
Chart 1: Global trade by sector (2014-30)
% year growth
0 10 8 6 4 2
High-Tech
Manufactures
Chemicals
Machinery
and Transport
Raw Materials
Food and Animals
Mineral Fuels
Beverages and Tobacco
Source: Oxford Economics
The TCI edged up one
point from six-months
earlier to reach 113 in H2
2013, signalling improved
condence about near-term
prospects for trade expansion
amongst global businesses.
Although respondents from all regions reported
a positive outlook regarding international trade,
respondents in the developed economies of Europe and
North America were the main drivers behind the latest
increase in optimism, while traders in the emerging
market economies of Latin America and the Middle East
were slightly less optimistic than previously. The view
of respondents in Asia remained unchanged on average
from the previous survey.
Chart 2: HSBC Trade condence index (World)
1H09 2H09 1H10 1H11 1H12 1H13
Source: HSBC TCI data
Neutral
Positive
Negative
80
100
120
140
2H13 2H10 2H12 2H11
Short-term
snapshot
Short-term snapshot continued
Cross-border business
The economic recovery in Europe has driven a strong
increase in the number of survey respondents identifying
it as the most promising region for trade over the next
six months; Europe was chosen by 24% of respondents,
up from 17% in the last survey. Nevertheless, Asia
consolidated its position as the most promising region
for trade, with 42% of companies identifying it as having
the best opportunities for business growth compared to
38% in the previous survey. Still, this reading should be
treated with some caution, as the survey was conducted
before the most recent bout of nancial market
turbulence in the region.
Corridors of choice
An improving outlook for demand globally and
in key markets was identied by respondents as
the main driver behind the expected increase in
trade ows over the next six months, with 38%
of respondents highlighting these factors.
The US dollar remains the currency of choice
for international trade, with 64% of survey
respondents identifying it as their main trade
settlement currency. The euro is still rmly in
second place with 20% of respondents, whilst
the renminbi and sterling were each chosen by
around 3% of companies.
Currency volatility remains the main concern for
businesses, with 43% of respondents identifying
it as an important constraint on growth. The
cost of essential services (shipping, logistics
and storage) and insufcient margins were each
identied by close to a third of respondents as
being key impediments to trade expansion.
Chart 3: HSBC Trade Condence Index
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Positive
Negative
Opportunities for business
The latest TCI survey reveals a signicant improvement
in sentiment towards the economies of Europe,
underscoring the renewed condence in the regions
economic recovery. Although condence regarding near-
term trade prospects with emerging markets appears
to have held up well, the latest survey was conducted
during a lull in nancial market volatility.
Business strategies should look beyond temporary
volatility and recognise the longer-run growth potential
of developing economies. Our forecasts show that trade
routes with economies in developing Asia, in particular,
are likely to represent some of the best opportunities for
business growth over the medium term.
Chart 4: Most promising regions for Trade
over the next 6 months
% of respondents
0
10
20
30
40
50
Asia Europe North
America
Middle East
and North Africa
Latin
America
Thanks in part to rising
growth in the US and
theUK, we expect global
growth to pick up in 2014.
Withthe US Fed likely to
press on with tapering its
asset purchases, potentially
driving up global long-term
interest rates, emerging
markets face potential
further pressures in the
monthsahead.
Chart 5: Growth in merchandise exports
% year growth

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While there may be some short-term nancial turbulence
as markets adjust to US monetary policy developments,
the fundamental drivers underpinning the longer-term
growth story for emerging markets remain intact. Over a
longer horizon, emerging markets are therefore expected
to be the key drivers of growth in global trade.
Long-term
outlook
Long-term outlook continued
Corridors to watch
The value of global trade in goods is forecast to increase
at an average rate of 8% pa in the years to 2030, with
China consolidating its position as the main driver of this
growth. Amongst the 25 key trading nations considered
in the HSBC Trade Forecast, China already accounts for
almost a fth of total merchandise trade and this share is
expected to rise to above 30% by 2030.
The rapid industrialisation of China and other Asian
economies will present signicant opportunities for
commodity producers to increase their focus on this
rapidly expanding source of demand for agricultural
and industrial commodities. And south-south trade
(trade between emerging markets) will receive a further
boost with the rapid growth in demand for consumer
goods that will accompany the expanding middle class
in countries such as China and India. This presents
signicant opportunities for Western brands that can
establish a foothold in these markets. But it also presents
opportunities for emerging-market rms striving to
become global brands, as these consumer markets are
likely to be more open to new entrants than more mature
Western markets.
At a sector level, the main drivers of growth in world
merchandise trade over the medium term are expected
to be machinery and transport equipment. In part, this
reects the large appetite for these goods from emerging
market economies that are expanding their manufacturing
base. But it also reects fast-growing demand from these
countries for big-ticket consumer items such as cars.
Chart 6: Sector contribution to increase in
global merchandise exports
0
40
80
120
Food and animals
Raw materials
Machinery and transport
Other
Mineral fuels
Manufactures
Beverages and tobacco Chemicals
2014-16 2017-20 2021-30
Over the past two decades, the developing economies
of Asia have become major players in the global market
for high-tech goods, a trend that has also become
apparent more recently in other developing economies
such as Mexico. This rapid ascent has been led by China,
which has seen its share of high-tech exports (amongst
the 25 economies in our sample) increase from 6% in
2000 to 37% in 2013 (Table 1). China has now overtaken
the EU, the US and Japan to become the largest exporter
of high-tech goods in the world.
Table 1: Share of total exports of high-tech goods (%)
Country Country Rank 2000 2013
1 USA 29.2 China 36.5
2 Japan 7.0 HK 13.0
3 Germany 6.7 USA 9.6
4 UK 6.6 Singapore 6.8
5 HK 6.5 Japan 6.6
6 China 6.5 Korea 6.1
7 Singapore 5.9 Mexico 5.7
8 Canada 5.2 Germany 4.4
9 Mexico 5.1 Malaysia 3.3
10 Malaysia 4.6 France 1.5
11 Korea 4.3 UK 1.3
12 France 4.0 Vietnam 1.1
13 Ireland 1.9 Canada 0.9
14 Australia 1.4 Poland 0.9
15 Brazil 1.3 Indonesia 0.6
16 UAE 0.6 India 0.4
17 India 0.6 Ireland 0.4
18 Turkey 0.6 Turkey 0.3
19 Indonesia 0.5 UAE 0.1
20 Argentina 0.5 Brazil 0.1
21 Poland 0.5 Australia 0.1
22 Saudi 0.3 Saudi 0.1
23 Egypt 0.2 Egypt 0.0
24 Vietnam 0.2 Bangladesh 0.0
25 Bangladesh 0.0 Argentina 0.0
Source: Oxford Economics/UN Comtrade
It would be tempting to conclude that this surge in
high-tech exports reects a move into high value-
added exports through the rapid development of local
technological capabilities in these economies. However,
the majority of this growth actually reects the increased
internationalisation of supply chains. More specically,
multinational companies have increasingly outsourced the
labour-intensive assembly stages of production to lower-
cost developing economies; meanwhile, the technology-
intensive and higher value-added stages of production
have remained concentrated in developed nations.
This is reected in the large share of high-tech imports
destined for developing Asian economies that also have
a high share of exports in this segment (Table 2).
Table 2: Share of total imports of high-tech goods (%)
1 USA 20.3 HK 20.0
2 Japan 15.9 USA 19.7
3 Singapore 8.3 China 17.1
4 HK 8.2 Japan 5.0
5 Mexico 7.1 Germany 4.3
6 China 6.9 Mexico 4.0
7 Korea 6.7 Korea 3.8
8 Malaysia 6.0 Singapore 3.4
9 Germany 4.8 Canada 2.9
10 UK 4.8 Malaysia 2.7
11 Canada 3.2 UK 2.5
12 France 3.1 France 2.4
13 Ireland 2.4 India 1.9
14 Indonesia 1.0 UAE 1.7
15 Brazil 0.3 Brazil 1.4
16 Poland 0.2 Australia 1.4
17 Australia 0.2 Indonesia 1.3
18 Turkey 0.1 Vietnam 1.2
19 India 0.1 Poland 0.8
20 Vietnam 0.1 Turkey 0.7
21 UAE 0.0 Saudi 0.7
22 Argentina 0.0 Argentina 0.4
23 Bangladesh 0.0 Ireland 0.3
24 Saudi 0.0 Egypt 0.2
25 Egypt 0.0 Bangladesh 0.1
but they specialise in low value-added,
labour-intensive stages of production
Multinational corporations have therefore been able
to lower production costs by outsourcing the low-skill
segments of the supply chain for high-tech products to
developed nations. This raises the question whether the
high-tech sector is helping developing countries to catch
up to the industrialised nations, or whether the high-tech
sector is actually helping the industrialised nations to
retain their lead over the emerging markets.
The link between exports and imports of high-tech
goods is illustrated in Chart 7. For the 25 economies in
our sample, the chart compares the share of high-tech
exports in that countrys total trade (exports + imports)
with the share of high-tech imports in total trade. The
45-degree line in the chart shows the point at which there
Developing economies have grown to dominate
trade in high-tech goods
Spotlight: Technology
Spotlight: Technology continued
is balanced trade in high-tech goods countries above
this line have a trade surplus in these products, while
countries below the line have a trade decit.
Chart 7: Exports and imports
of high-tech goods (2012)
Source: Oxford Economics / UN Comtrade
0
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25
30
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
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High-tech imports (% of total imports and exports)
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BGD ARG
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as evidenced by their high propensity to import
high-tech goods
China operates a trade surplus in high-tech goods, which
undoubtedly represents a net positive for the economy.
Nevertheless, the size of this surplus is perhaps not as
large as one may have expected given the countrys
apparent dominance of international exports in this
segment. A similar pattern of trade can be observed in
Malaysia, which also has a high export specialisation
in high-tech products, largely generated by domestic
assembly lines. Vietnam is more of a latecomer to the
high-tech sector, but it is now becoming an increasingly
signicant producer of telecommunications equipment
following major investments in processing factories by
multinational corporations. Outside Asia, Mexico has also
recently received signicant investment in manufacturing
facilities by foreign companies seeking to outsource
labour-intensive assembly.
Although Hong Kong appears to have an especially high
propensity to trade in high-tech goods, its position of
near-balanced trade in these products reects its role
as a regional trading hub. This entrept role also helps
to explain why the more developed Asian economy of
Singapore has such a high specialisation in the trade
of high-tech goods, although Singapore is also a major
producer of high value-added electronic components
such as semiconductors, explaining its trade surplus in
this sector. Korea and Japan also have signicant roles
in the production of high value-added components that
are shipped for assembly elsewhere in the region.
At the same time, this internationalisation of supply
chains explains why the United States the designer of
devices such as the iPhone and a country with an evident
comparative advantage in the high-tech sector operates
a trade decit in these goods. The outsourcing of
production of high-tech goods by US companies to serve
the large domestic consumer market for these goods
means that US companies import a large quantity of
assembled products that they have designed themselves.
Developing economies can benet from knowledge
spillover effects
Outsourcing of labour-intensive production by large
multinational corporations can therefore explain the
leading role of developing countries in high-tech exports.
Indeed, ofcial data from Chinas Ministry of Science and
Technology shows that 82% of the countrys high-tech
exports were produced by foreign-owned or joint-venture
rms in 2011 (Chart 8).
Chart 8: Chinas exports of high-tech products
by rm ownership
Share of high-tech exports (%)
0
60
40
20
100
Foreign-owned
Joint-venture
2002 2005 2008 2011
Source: PRC Ministry of Science & Technology
80
It may appear that the emerging markets are merely
helping to strengthen the technological lead of companies
in the developed world. However, this overlooks the
potential for knowledge spillovers from foreign rms.
Moreover, these developing economies are now making
rapid advances in developing their domestic research
capabilities, with rates of R&D expenditure in Developing
Asia now fast-approaching the levels seen in the West
(Chart 9). This reects both the rapid growth of R&D in
the region, as well as the near-stagnation of R&D levels
in the US and EU over the past two decades.
Chart 9: R&D expenditure trends
% GDP
1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011
Source: World Bank World Development Indicators
European Union
North America
Developing Asia
Latin America
0
1
2
3
...and they are rapidly developing their own
technological capabilities
Examining current levels of R&D spending at the
country level, Chart 10 reveals that China now compares
favourably with many developed nations. Similarly,
Malaysia has also managed to increase R&D from very
low levels just a few years ago. These two economies
may have depended on foreign investment to fuel their
early growth in high-tech exports, but they are now
increasing their technological know-how and moving up
the value chain to develop high-tech products of their
own. This investment appears to be paying dividends
after the US and Japan, China now ranks joint-third
alongside Germany in terms of the number of PCT
applications led each year.
Chart 10: Expenditure on Research
and Development
% GDP
0 1 2 3 4
Saudi Arabia
Vietnam
Egypt
Mexico
Argentina
Hong Kong
India
Poland
Turkey
Malaysia
Brazil
Canada
Ireland
United Kingdom
China
Singapore
France
Australia
USA
Germany
Japan
Korea
Indonesia
Source: World Bank World Development Indicators
This shift is further evidenced by the rise of
Chinese brands such as Huawei (the worlds largest
telecommunications equipment maker), Haier (the
largest white-goods manufacturer), Lenovo (the second
largest PC manufacturer) and BYD (the leading producer
of lithium-ion batteries for mobile phones). A common
strategy employed by all these brands is that they initially
used their local knowledge to focus sales efforts on
emerging markets before expanding further aeld to
compete with established Western competitors.
It is very likely that this progression from assembly
lines to the domestic design and production of high-
tech products has been aided by knowledge spillovers
from foreign invested rms. Indeed, an analysis of the
emerging market economies in our sample reveals a
positive relationship between growth in high-tech imports
and growth in GDP over the past two decades (Chart
11). This relationship does not appear to exist for the
developed economies in our sample, where the scope
for such knowledge spillovers is much more limited.
Chart 11: Technology imports and GDP
Source: Oxford Economics / Haver Analytics
0
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25
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
R
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R = 0.0
VNM
IND
BAN
IDN
TUR
KOR
MYS
SAU
AUS
USA
MEX
JPN
FRA
CAN
UK
GER
EGY
ARG
IRE
SGP
Emerging markets
Developing economies
CHN
POL
UAE
HK
BRA
GDP (CAGR (%), 1992-2012)
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which will enable them to move up the value chain
in high-tech goods
Looking forward, we expect trade in high-tech goods to
continue to outpace growth in total merchandise exports,
increasing its share of total goods traded from 22% in
2013 to over 25% by 2030. Internationalisation of supply
chains will explain much of this trade, we do not expect
it to be driven solely by Western brands, as emerging-
market rms will continue to gain market share. These
factors will combine to make global trade in high-tech
goods even more skewed towards developing Asia in the
years ahead (Table 3).
Table 3: Share of total exports of high-tech goods (%)
1 China 36.5 China 51.1
2 HK 13.0 HK 10.1
3 USA 9.6 USA 6.6
4 Singapore 6.8 Korea 5.7
5 Japan 6.6 Mexico 4.5
6 Korea 6.1 Singapore 4.5
7 Mexico 5.7 Japan 4.0
8 Germany 4.4 Malaysia 3.7
9 Malaysia 3.3 Germany 2.3
10 France 1.5 Vietnam 1.8
11 UK 1.3 Poland 0.9
12 Vietnam 1.1 France 0.8
13 Canada 0.9 Indonesia 0.8
14 Poland 0.9 UK 0.8
15 Indonesia 0.6 India 0.8
16 India 0.4 Canada 0.6
17 Ireland 0.4 Turkey 0.5
18 Turkey 0.3 Ireland 0.3
19 UAE 0.1 Brazil 0.1
20 Brazil 0.1 UAE 0.1
21 Australia 0.1 Australia 0.1
22 Saudi 0.1 Saudi 0.1
23 Egypt 0.0 Egypt 0.0
24 Bangladesh 0.0 Bangladesh 0.0
25 Argentina 0.0 Argentina 0.0
Conclusion
The preceding discussion leads us to conclude that the
high-tech sector has a positive inuence on growth in the
emerging markets and helps them to catch up with the
industrialised nations. While developed countries have to
continue innovating to stay ahead, developing economies
can also benet from knowledge spillovers to catalyse
local production. And while levels of R&D in North
America and Europe are stagnating, rapid growth rates in
emerging markets are creating home-grown competitors
in the high-tech sphere that are now threatening the
dominant position of established Western brands.
More generally, the example of the high tech sector
illustrated here presents lessons for other sectors and
the future pattern of global trade. The world economy is
becoming more knowledge-intensive and it is essential
for developed nations to invest in research, innovation and
education to retain competitiveness and enhance future
growth. Technological know-how is helping developed
countries to retain their lead over the emerging markets,
but without the appropriate investment, this lead will
gradually be eroded over time.
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About the Data:
About the HSBC Trade Forecast Modelled by Oxford Economics
Oxford Economics has tailored a unique service for HSBC which
forecasts bilateral trade for total exports/imports of goods, based
on HSBCs own analysis and forecasts of the world economy to
generate a full bilateral set of trade flows for total imports and
exports of goods, and balances between 180 pairs of countries.
Oxford Economics produces a global report for HSBC, as well as
country specific reports on the following 23 countries: Hong Kong,
China, Australia, Indonesia, Malaysia, India, Singapore, Vietnam,
Bangladesh, Canada, USA, Brazil, Mexico, Argentina, UK, France,
Turkey, Germany, Poland, Ireland, UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt.
The analysis also includes trade with Japan and Korea for a total
sample of 25 key trading nations.
Oxford Economics employs a global modelling framework that
ensures full consistency between all economies, in part driven
by trade linkages. The forecasts take into account factors such
as the rate of demand growth in the destination market and the
exporters competitiveness. Exports, imports and trade balances
are identified, with both historical estimates and forecasts for
the periods 2014-16, 2017-20 and 2021-30. Sectors are classified
according to the UNs Standard International Trade Classifications
(SITC) system at the two-digit level and grouped into 30 sector
headings. More information about the sector modelling can be
found on http://www.globalconnections.hsbc.com/
About the HSBC Trade Condence Index:
The HSBC Trade Confidence Index is conducted by TNS on
behalf of HSBC in a total of 23 markets, and is the largest trade
confidence survey globally. The current survey comprises six-
month views of 5,550 exporters, importers and traders from small
and mid-market enterprises on: trade volume, buyer and supplier
risks, the need for trade finance, access to trade finance and the
impact of foreign exchange on their businesses. The fieldwork
for the current survey was conducted between November
December 2013 and gauges sentiment and expectations on trade
activity and business growth in the next six months.
Technology Focus Methodology
This report focuses on how emerging markets are targeting
R&D investment to scale the value chain in the high-tech sector,
illustrating the need for developed economies to invest in
innovation to remain competitive. For this analysis, we collected
together four key high-tech sub-sectors into one group:
Office machines and automatic data-processing
machines (SITC code 75)
Telecommunications equipment (SITC code 76).
Electrical machinery and appliances (SITC code 77)
Photographic apparatus and optical goods (SITC code 88)
Based on the same underlying forecasts used for the existing
analysis of trends in bilateral trade flows, the report examines how
exports/imports of this group of products are expected to evolve
over time.
About HSBC Bank plc
Headquartered in London, HSBC is one of the largest
banking and nancial services organisations in the
world. HSBC is one of the worlds most international
commercial banks with over three million customers
in almost 60 markets.
For more information please see:
www.hsbc.com/globalconnections

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