EUROPE (TIER 2) ANALYTICAL GUIDANCE:

THEMES AND ISSUES TO MONITOR

BALKANS (SERBIA, CROATIA, BOSNIA, ALBANIA, MACEDONIA,
MONTENEGRO, BULGARIA)
Security:
Security situation in the Balkans is complex and multifaceted. First, we need to
keep an eye on any security concerns in Bosnia. Any indication that ethnic groups
in Bosnia are looking for greater autonomy or that violence is again on the prowl.
Splits between roats and !uslims is particularly key. "e need to be warned of
any sign of soccer related violence, # crime, anything that could coalesce into
ethnic crime. Bosnia is $%& for this region.
#rgani'ed crime needs to be followed carefully. "e need to be kept abreast of any
events in the Balkans that are # related. (he countries to watch in particular are
roatia )high # activity*, !acedonia, !ontenegro )the entire country is #,
including the government*, Bosnia )very high # penetration, with +ussian links
so doubly important* and Albania,$osovo )careful eye on Albanian mob
activities*.
Serbs in -orthern $osovo, they can flare up at any time. Also, Albanians in
.resovo /alley and !uslims in Sand'ak )both in Serbia*.
+ise in neo0-a'i violence, particularly in /o1vodina against 2ungarians )Serbia*,
roatia )against +oma and Serbs* and also anti0minority, anti0.omak )!uslims*
violence in Bulgaria.
.rotests, riots, union activity3 4t is not as organi'ed as in "estern %urope, but
milk protests in Bulgaria or worker protests in Bosnia are key. +emember, it was
the strikes by Albanian miners in $osovo back in the 5678s that in a way moved
the region towards conflagration.
Any strange movements by 4slamist terrorist groups in and out of the region.
9rug sei'ures and weapon sei'ures.
.olitical 4ssues:
Bosnia, Bosnia, Bosnia. Any split developing in roatian0!uslim federation is
key. +adicali'ation of +epublica Srpska.
.olitics within Serbia: internal politics are very confusing, but we want to be kept
abrest of almost anything that goes down there. Shifts can indicate new alliances
that create new parties and such.
!ontenegro: their road to %: is interesting, we want to know what
#,government is doing and to what extent are they interested in curbing #
activities that run the government.
!acedonian attempts to enter the %: and -A(# are also something to keep an
eye on.
4nternational +elations:
!acedonia 0 ;reece dispute3
Slovenia 0 roatia dispute3
Serbia and its relations with everyone.
+ussian moves in the Balkans:
0 "e need to keep an eye out on any ac<uisitions of energy companies by the
+ussians in the region.
0 +ussia giving loans to the region.
0 Any movements by +ussian leaders,politicians,businessmen to the region.
0 +ussia 0 Serbia relationship is particularly important one for us to monitor. 4 don=t
care if the two have a friendly soccer game, we should know about it.
%: 0 Balkan relations:
0 Any threats by the %: that Bulgaria is dragging its feet on corruption or that the
Balkans are delaying with reforms.
0 Any statements by the ommission, ouncil or the %nlargement ommissioner
are important.
%conomics:
Because of the global recession, any numbers coming out of the region 00 which
are tougher to get than the rest of the world 00 are very important.
"atch for any labor,union,rioting due to the crisis. 9on=t forget, the 4!F austerity
measures imposed on &ugoslavia was in part to blame for the start of the war
there. "e need to be aware of any economically motivated social discontentment.
"atch carefully Serbia, Bosnia and roatia in terms of economic statements.
Bulgaria may be in a lot of trouble as well.
Any sign that "estern %urope is pulling on its development aid or what they want
to give to the region is key as well.
4!F visits to the region.
Banking trouble, any mention of foreign banks in the region doing anything
surprising, such as closing shop or preventing investments there.
GREECE
Security
;reece has a very complex security situation, there are more anarchist groups in
;reece than islands in its archipelagos. >et=s make sure we know exactly what is
going on, always report every attack and track down exactly who claimed
responsibility if possible.
+ight0wing movements in ;reece are on the rise as well, particularly in anti0
migrant violence )!uslims and Albanians being the main targets*.
.rotests,unions,riots, standard stuff as across the region. 4n ;reece it is important
because $aramanlis is not at all popular. "atch for left0right discontentment3
(his is the key split in ;reece and it is very violent.
.olitical 4ssues
(he key issue is how long can $aramanlis survive. "atch for opposition to be
rallying around .AS#$.
4nternational +elations
+elations with (urkey are something to watch. Anything that has to do with
security in the !editerranean is important, also anything to do with yprus.
9ispute with !acedonia over the name is something we need to follow, although
it is not something that will make or break ;reece.
;reece0Serbia relations, they are usually good but let=s see if anything changes.
%conomics
;reece is country key for shipping. "e need to watch out for any status updates
on the shipping fleet and what is going on in that industry.
;reece is essentially in the midst of an economic meltdown. "e need all and
every piece of information coming out of here. "e need to know exactly what is
going on and whether,when ;reece applies for 4!F loan. "e may very well
witness an absolute economic collapse of a euro'one country.
.lease watch carefully for any sign of bond auctions or syndicated bond sales.
;reece has a lot of debt, how they pop may be determined on what happens to
their debt.
CENTRAL EUROPE (Czech Repu!"c, S!#$%&"%, Hu'(%)*, Au+,)"%, S-",ze)!%'.,
L"ech,e'+,e"', R#/%'"%, S!#$e'"%)
Security
# related moves in the region. For #, the countries of note are Slovakia,
Swit'erland, 'ech +epublic and +omania.
Banking fraud and money laundering, talking about Austria, Swit'erland and
>iechtenstein in particular. "atch for other countries, particularly ;ermany and
the :.S., spying on >iechtenstein and Swit'erland. Anything out of the ordinary
here is key, anyone caught with lots of cash or ?suicided@, businessmen, bankers.
4t=s all relevant.
Anything that may appear like +ussian involvement is key. !oves by +ussians in
the region, #, intelligence activity.
+iots,protests,union actions3 Again, standard for all of %urope. But in this group
of countries particularly important in 2ungary, 'ech +epublic and Slovakia.
+ight wing groups. (hese are particularly active in 2ungary, which should be the
number one security related issue to watch there. 2owever, these groups are also
present in Austria and Swit'erland and on the rise in 'ech +epublic, Slovakia
and Slovenia.
.olitical 4ssues
4n 'ech +epublic the government is always unstable and always one or two
votes in the .arliament from falling apart. "atch for the $laus dynamic. 2e is in
there until A85B and hates everyone. 2e is a lose cannon. "hoever gets to be the
next .! is going to have to deal with him. "atch any indication of who is going
to be presented as the next candidates for .!.
Swiss internal politics is not something we need to kill ourselves over, but let=s
monitor rise of the right wing parties there. Same goes for the entire region.
Austria and 2ungary in particular.
+omanian elections coming up, let=s be real thorough on reporting what goes on
inside +omania.
4nternational +elations
"hat is +ussia doing in the regionC 'ech +epublic and Slovakia are the big ones
that we need to monitor carefully. "e basically need to see all +ussian moves in
the region, energy related, visits by various +ussian politicians and businessmen.
2owever, +ussians are also going to be pushing back on +omania=s recent moves
in !oldova.
9eals between :.S. and .oland, particularly in regards to any military technology
transfers.
9eals between the :.S. and 'ech +epublic, again particularly in regards to any
military technology transfers, B!9 radar facility as well.
%xpanding role of +omania in its region, particularly in regards to !oldova. "e
need to keep an eye on where +omanian politicians are going and what they are
saying.
2ungary=s relationship with +ussia is also vital, as is its relations with Slovakia
and +omania, two neighbors that don=t necessarily have a very good relationship
with Budapest. (here are large 2ungarian minorities in +omania, Serbia and
Slovakia and we need to keep our eyes on what they are doing.
%conomics
A lot of the countries in the region have banking problems that are <uite serious.
!ost of the banks in the region are foreign owned. "e need to closely follow
what the 4talian, Swedish and Austrian banks are saying and doing. Anything that
has to do with banking failures or bailouts is key.
Any new moves by the international community )4!F, %B+9, %:* to rescue
countries in the region financially is something we need to monitor.
Statistics that come out of the region are important to take not off. Again, with the
current recession underway, we need to be kept abreast of anything that is
happening in the region.
+ussian energy deals in the region are crucial, as are mergers and ac<uisitions of
energy units between the countries or by "est %uropean firms.
4nvestments in the region by hina, :.S., +ussia or %urope are all key.
Announcements about budget.
BALTS (L%,$"%, L",hu%'"%, E+,#'"%)
Security
"e need to watch for any sign of problems with the +ussian minority. %ven if it is
1ust ngo=s talking for e<ual rights, that is essentially the +ussians asking to get
theirs.
+ioting,protests,unrest related to the economic crisis.
#, especially # activity related to +ussia.
.olitical 4ssues
(he current economic crisis has created a very tense political situation. (he
economies of these countries are completely collapsing. %stonia is on a bring of
government collapse. So is apparently >atvia3 yes, again. >ithuania is holding
out, but it also had protests in Danuary over the government=s economic crisis
measures. >et=s see what happens here.
$eep an eye on +ussian political parties. For example in >atvia we are talking
about 2armony enter and For 2uman +ights in :nited >atvia. 9on=t believe
those are about harmony and human rights. Also, be attuned to what names sound
Baltic,:gro0Finnic and which are +ussian. Ask >auren and me if in doubt. (hat is
key in understanding which politician is from a +ussian minority.
4nternational +elations
+ussia, +ussia, +ussia3 -o matter how minute or insignificant, if it has to do
with +ussia and the Balts, we need to know about it. 4f they raise the beat import
tax, we need to be aware of it. "atch for +ussia putting more troops on the border
with the Balts, watch for energy politics.
+elation with the %: is also important, particularly the efforts of the Balts to
wean themselves off of the +ussian gas0trap, that is going to be a key move by the
%: in the region.
-A(# strengthening its presence in the region. Any military purchases by the
three Baltic countries and any movements of troops are key.
+elation with Sweden and Finland are also important since the two are essentially
patrons of the Balts.
%conomics
%conomies of the Baltic countries are collapsing. "e need to report exactly what
is happening. Banks are key, particularly the penetration into the markets of
Swedish banks.
Any moves by the international community )4!F, %:, %B+9* to rescue countries
or individual banks is also important. /isits by %:,4!F people to the countries
should be followed.
(he Balts are going to be experiencing ;reat 9epression like recession, we need
to be aware of the social problems this will create.
Any announcements about the budget is key.