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() =
(4.1)
where p
x
(x
j
) is the annual probability of occurrence for Sa,rock equal to x
j
. This
probability is obtained by differentiating the previously defined reference rock hazard curve.
is the probability that AF is greater than the quantity z / x given a bedrock amplitude (Sa,rock) of
x. This value is computed by assuming AF is lognormally distributed and using the AF
Sa,rock relationship to predict the median AF and
lnAF
. It should be noted that Equation 4.1
assumes that the hazard is small enough that the annual probability of exceedance is equal to
the annual rate of exceedance (Bazzurro and Cornell 2004). An example of a reference rock
hazard curve and a hazard curve computed for the ground surface using the convolution
approach (Approach 3) are shown in Figure 4.3.
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conforms to the authorised database version Page 28
Figure 4.3: Reference rock hazard curve and hazard curve at the ground surface computed by
the convolution method (Approach 3)
4.2. Vs Characterization and its Implications
The required seismic site characterization of Thyspunt for site-specific PSHA involves the
shear wave velocity profile. The measured shear wave velocities are used to (1) identify a
reference rock condition that will be used to derive the reference rock hazard curves, (2)
develop the statistical model of the shear wave velocity profile for the materials above the
reference rock condition, and (3) obtain small strain damping via correlations with shear wave
velocity values.
Figure 4.4 plots the shear wave velocity profiles measured by PS logging, as previously
shown in Section 3. Each shear wave velocity profile generally reaches 3,000 m/s and it is
proposed that the reference rock condition should be 3,000 m/s. At Workshop 2 in J anuary
2012, the Ground Motion Characterization Technical Integration team agreed on this value of
V
s30
for the reference rock condition. Specifying a reference rock condition of V
s30
=3,000 m/s
requires that a ground motion prediction equation appropriate for this condition be used in the
hazard calculations for reference rock. Most ground motion prediction equations are not valid in
this velocity range, and thus published models must be adjusted to V
s30
=3,000 m/s as well as
the associated kappa.
1.E-05
1.E-04
1.E-03
1.E-02
1.E-01
1.E+00
0 0.5 1 1.5 2
A
n
n
u
a
l
R
a
t
e
o
f
E
x
c
e
e
d
a
n
c
e
(
1
/
y
r
)
PGA (g)
Reference Rock
Ground Surface
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conforms to the authorised database version Page 29
Figure 4.4: Measured shear wave velocity profiles by PS logging.
Figure 4.5: V
s30
kappa data compiled by Van Houtte et al. (2011) and their developed
relationship
The selection of kappa associated with the reference rock condition will be informed from
various sources. Prof. Andreas Rietbrock and Dr. Stephane Druet, both Specialty Contractors
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conforms to the authorised database version Page 30
for this project, have analysed weak motion data from South Africa to invert appropriate
seismological parameters, including kappa, for the region of interest. Additionally, there have
been several papers published over the last few years that relate kappa to V
s30.
Van Houtte et
al. (2011) summarize these studies, and combine the previous data with their own data to
develop a Vs30 kappa relationship (Figure 4.5). The TI team has compiled the various papers
investigating the V
s30
kappa relationship, and will use this information to inform its decision on
kappa.
With the reference rock conditions specified, the remaining information required are the
statistical models for the shear wave velocity profile and material damping ratio. The velocity
information presented in this report will be used to develop a shear wave velocity model, a
damping model, and their uncertainties for use in site response analyses. A model will be
developed by Prof. Ellen Rathje and approved by the entire TI team.
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conforms to the authorised database version Page 31
References
Bazzurro, P. and Cornell, C.A. 2004. Nonlinear Soil Site Effects in Probabilistic Seismic Hazard
Analysis, Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 94(6), 2110-2123.
Choi, W.K. (2008) Dynamic properties of ash-flow tuffs, Ph.D Disseration, University of Texas
at Austin, 308 pp.
Comber (2012) Borehole PS Logging for ESKOM Thyspunt Siting Project, Council for
Geoscience, Report Number 2012-0001 (Rev 0).
Engelsman, B. and Constable, B. (2012) Thyspunt Shear Wave Velocity Measurements
Report Number 449376, SRK Consulting Ltd.
Green, M. T., Malovichko, D.A., Lynch, R.A., and Nel, A. (2011) Seismic Surface Wave
Measurements at Thyspunt, South Africa, Council for Geoscience, Report Number 2011-
0194 (Rev 0).
McGuire, R., Silva, W.J ., and Costantino, C.J . (2001). Technical basis for revision of regulatory
guidance on design ground motions: hazard- and risk consistent ground motion spectra
guidelines, U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission Report NUREG/CR-6728.
Park, C. (2011) Seismic Site Characterization in Thyspunt Area By Active and Passive MASW
Surveys: Data Processing Results, Council for Geoscience, Report Number 2011-0196
(Rev 0).
Rathje, E.M., Kottke, A.R. and Trent, W.L. (2010). The Influence of Input Motion and Site
Property Uncertainties on Seismic Site Response Analyses, J ournal of Geotechnical and
Geoenvironmental Engineering, ASCE, 136(4), 607-619.
Sarma, L. P. and Ravikumar, N. (2000) Q-factor by spectral ratio technique for strata
evaluations, Engineering Geology, Vol. 57, Issue 1-2, pp.123-132.
Toro G. R. (1995) Probabilistic models of site velocity profiles for generic and site-specific
ground-motion amplification studies. Technical Report 779574, Brookhaven National
Laboratory, Upton, New York.
Van Houtte, C., Drouet, S., and Cotton, F. (2011) Analysis of the Origins of kappa to Compute
Hard Rock to Rock Adjustment Factors for GMPEs, Bulletin of the Seismological Society of
America, Vol. 101, No. 6, pp. 29262941, doi: 10.1785/0120100345.