Dean Oliver

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<h1 id="firstHeading" class="fir
stHeading" lang="en"><span dir="auto">Dean Oliver (statistician)</span></h1>
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<div id="mw-content-text" lang="en" dir="ltr" cl
ass="mw-content-ltr"><div class="hatnote">For the English footballer see <a href
="/wiki/Dean_Oliver_(footballer)" title="Dean Oliver (footballer)">Dean Oliver (
footballer)</a>.</div>
<p><b>Dr. Dean Oliver Ph. D</b> (born 1969) is a prominent contributor to the st
atistical evaluation of basketball, or sometimes called <a href="/wiki/APBRmetri
cs" title="APBRmetrics">APBRmetrics</a> after the forum of a growing community o
f basketball analysts. He is the author of <i>Basketball on Paper</i>,<sup id="c
ite_ref-1" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-1"><span>[</span>1<span>]</span
></a></sup> the former producer of the defunct <a href="/w/index.php?title=Journ
al_of_Basketball_Studies&action=edit&redlink=1" class="new" title="Journ
al of Basketball Studies (page does not exist)">Journal of Basketball Studies</a
>.<sup id="cite_ref-2" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-2"><span>[</span>2<
span>]</span></a></sup> More recently Oliver has served in front office roles wi
th the Seattle SuperSonics and Denver Nuggets of the NBA (including when the con
troversial trade for Allen Iverson was made).</p>
<p>Dean Oliver developed his work through a combination of technical studies and
traditional basketball experience. He played Division III collegiate basketball
at the historically win-challenged Caltech, graduating with honors with a degre
e in engineering there in 1990, and served as an assistant coach for the team be
ginning as a junior. He earned a Ph.D. in statistical applications in environmen
tal science at the University of North Carolina in 1994 while scouting for Bertk
a Views, a scouting organization run by then Laker assistant coach, Bill Bertka.
</p>
<p>He served as an engineering consultant between 1995 and 2003, continuing to d
o basketball research during this period, writing <i>Basketball on Paper</i> in
2002 and writing on Pro Basketball for About.com between 1996 and 1998. In 2004,
Oliver set out to create a position in the NBA for statistical analysis, follow
ing the trend set in baseball, as illustrated by the Michael Lewis book, <i>Mone
yball</i>, in 2003. By October 2004, he had impressively accomplished his goal a
nd was hired as the first full-time statistical analyst in the NBA.</p>
<h2><span class="mw-headline" id="Contributions">Contributions</span><span class
="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index
.php?title=Dean_Oliver_(statistician)&action=edit&section=1" title="Edit
section: Contributions">edit</a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></
span></h2>
<p>Among the areas of where he made contributions to the field are the following
:</p>
<ul>
<li><b>Possession-based analysis</b>, where possessions are defined as the perio
d between when one team gets the ball to when the other team gets it. Teams are
evaluated based on how many points per 100 possessions they score and allow, als
o called "<a href="/wiki/Offensive_rating" title="Offensive rating">offensive ra
tings</a>" and "<a href="/wiki/Defensive_rating" title="Defensive rating">defens
ive ratings</a>." The percentage of possessions on which a team scores Oliver ca
lls "floor percentage", though it is a concept little used since what is ultimat
ely most important is how many points are scored, not how often any points are s
cored.</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li><b>Four Factor Analysis</b>. From possession-based analysis, there are four
statistical team factors that summarize most of what matters in terms of winning
or losing: effective field goal percentage, offensive rebounding percentage, tu
rnovers per possession, and free throws made per field goal attempted.</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li><b>Individual possession-based analysis</b>, evaluating the efficiency of in
dividuals with their possessions. Oliver has presented his version of individual
offensive and defensive ratings using a complex set of formulas and rough simpl
ifying assumptions to parse credit among individuals.</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li><b>Bell Curve or Correlated Gaussian evaluation of teams</b>. This is an ext
ension of the well-known <a href="/wiki/Pythagorean_expectation" title="Pythagor
ean expectation">Pythagorean Expectation</a> for relating team points scored and
allowed to winning percentage. Oliver's techniques incorporate variation in poi
nts scored and allowed, as well as how much teams played up or down to opponents
.</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li><b>Offensive and defensive scoresheets</b>. Oliver has done significant work
to track new data. He began his work by tracking how the ball moved from player
to player. These were his offensive scoresheets and they formed the basis for h
is possession-based analysis. Later, he briefly constructed a group of volunteer
s to track defensive statistics at WNBA games. These statistics included field g
oals allowed, forced turnovers, and free throws allowed, providing more informat
ion than steals and blocks do on a player's defensive ability.</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li><b>Individual win-loss records</b>. Oliver created two early ways of assigni
ng wins and losses to players. One type is an estimate of a player's overall val
ue. The other reflects the ability of a player to "do their role." The usefulnes
s of the W-L scale as implemented is debatable.</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li><b>Head coach evaluation</b>. Oliver did evaluation of NBA head coaches usin
g a technique in <i>Basketball on Paper</i> that compares a coaching record to e
xpectations. He admits that there are flaws in the technique, but it yields resu
lts showing that coaches can add as much as about 15% to a team's winning percen
tage (he has admitted making an error in the book, where the comments don't matc
h the analysis).</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li><b>Referee evaluation</b>. Oliver did a theoretical analysis illustrating th
at neutral referees who just make errors randomly introduce a bias favoring unde
rdogs. This remarkable result shows that an error rate of 15% can cause a declin
e in winning percentage of about 5% for a good team.</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li><b>Risky strategies</b>. Risky strategies are defined as ones that increase
the variance of a score. In particular, Oliver shows that these strategies help
an underdog and hurt a favorite. Examples of such risky strategies are using a p
ress, shooting a lot of three-point shots, or slowing the pace dramatically.</li
>
</ul>
<ul>
<li><b>Roboscout</b>. Roboscout is a tool that Oliver has hinted at in his works
,<sup id="cite_ref-3" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-3"><span>[</span>3<s
pan>]</span></a></sup> but never released for any proof or review. In articles,
he has written that it shows key aspects of a team or player to focus on defendi
ng. He has been quite secretive in how it works, but it clearly uses the Four Fa
ctors as its basis. Whether it goes much beyond that is unknown.</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li><b>Defense and winning championships</b>. The phrase "Defense wins champions
hips" is nearly ubiquitous in the sports world. Oliver has looked rigorously at
this phrase in <i>Basketball on Paper</i>, showing that it has some validity, bu
t not to great extent. Teams with good offense that have apparently relaxed on d
efense during the regular season and can ramp it up in the playoffs those teams wi
n championships.</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li><b>The Olympic Gap</b>. Oliver documented that the world had nearly caught u
p to the USA in basketball ability over only 12 years between 1992 and 2004.<sup
id="cite_ref-4" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-4"><span>[</span>4<span>]
</span></a></sup></li>
</ul>
<h2><span class="mw-headline" id="References">References</span><span class="mw-e
ditsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?t
itle=Dean_Oliver_(statistician)&action=edit&section=2" title="Edit secti
on: References">edit</a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></h2
>
<div class="reflist" style="list-style-type: decimal;">
<ol class="references">
<li id="cite_note-1"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-1">^</
a></b></span> <span class="reference-text"><a rel="nofollow" class="external fre
e" href="http://www.amazon.com/dp/1574886886/?%5Fencoding=UTF8">http://www.amazo
n.com/dp/1574886886/?%5Fencoding=UTF8</a>, Amazon.com</span></li>
a></b></span> <span class="reference-text"><a rel="nofollow" class="external tex
t" href="http://www.rawbw.com/~deano">Journal of Basketball Studies</a></span></
li>
t" href="http://82games.com/oliver.htm">Dean Oliver's Roboscout</a></span></li>
t" href="http://82games.com/comm52.htm">Dean Oliver on the Olympic Basketball Ga
p</a></span></li>
</ol>
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<td class="persondata-label" style="color:#aaa;">Name</td>
<td>Oliver, Dean</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="persondata-label" style="color:#aaa;">Alternative names</td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="persondata-label" style="color:#aaa;">Short description</td>
<td>American statistician</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="persondata-label" style="color:#aaa;">Date of birth</td>
<td>1969</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="persondata-label" style="color:#aaa;">Place of birth</td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="persondata-label" style="color:#aaa;">Date of death</td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="persondata-label" style="color:#aaa;">Place of death</td>
<td></td>
</tr>
</table>


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