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Climate Change 101:

Science and Impacts

Commissioner Naderev Yeb Sao


Climate Change Commission
1

Creating
t
he
C
limate
f
or
C
hange
Creating the Climate for Change

Naderev Yeb Madla Sao


Commissioner
Climate Change Commission
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3
3

The task before us

Understand Climate Change and


be instruments of hope

for the future


4

Climate Change is our

opportunity
to change the way

we pursue
our common future.

The way

we pursue
our common future is
our opportunity

to ght Climate Change

Surprise Quiz
!

20 items
Right minus wrong
Passing score: 10
!

7
7

1.

2.

3.

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4.

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5.

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6.

13

7.

Dayap

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8.

Kamansi

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9.

Bignay

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10.

Noni

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17

11.

Rimas

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12.

Balimbing

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13.

Kaong

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14.

Marang

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15.

.
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22

16.

.
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23

17.

.
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18.

Calayan Rail !
(Tikling)

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25

19.

Palawan pangolin
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26

20.

Luzon Giant Cloudrat

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wikimedia.org

Bonus

Item

This is NOT the


Philippine Eagle
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28

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This is the
Philippine Eagle!

Philippine Eagle!
Photo by Yeb Sao!
Mt. Apo Natural Park!
May 2, 2014
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We cannot be stewards
of something we cannot
protect.

30

We cannot protect what


we do not love.

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We cannot love what


we do not know.

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stewardship
noun

st-rd-ship, sty-;st(y)urd
!

: the activity or job of


protecting and being
responsible for something
!

Merriam-Webster
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We are expected to be
stewards of Creation

Photo by Yeb Sao


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Stewardship of the Earth

Developing skills for


critical thinking
questioning, investigating
Photo by Yeb35Sao
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Stewardship of the Earth

Putting into practice


personal and civic responsibility for
decisions that aect the
environment.

Photo by Yeb36Sao

36

Environmental
consciousness
is not just about
knowledge.

37

Environmental
consciousness
is also about
understanding.

38

FACT:

EVERY natural
living system in the
world today is in
decline.

39

Luzon land area:


10.4 M hectares

Every year
globally

11 million hectares
of forest lost

40

What are
the
underlying
reasons for
the worlds
problems?

41

How do we
communicate the
issue of climate
change?

42

A
A
A

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Avarice
Arrogance
Apathy

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44

The kind of development weve seen


puts tremendous pressure on the
environment and widens the gap
between the rich and the poor

Photo by Yeb Sao


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46

One of the greatest threats to the


planet is the belief that someone else
will save it.
!

Robert Swan

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47

What kind of
transformation
do I want to see in
my country, in the
face of this
planetary crisis
48

What actions do I
want to see in my
country to eect
this transformation

49

Our actions today


will shape our future

Photo by Yeb Sano


50

Our actions today


will shape our future

Photo by Yeb Sano


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Photo by Yeb Sao!


Verde Island Passage
March 20112
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The Philippines is the most


beautiful country.

Photo by Yeb Sao


Tubbataha Reefs
April 2014
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Ang Pilipinas ang


pinakamagandang bayan
sa buong mundo

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The Filipino spirit is


incredibly inspiring.

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55

November 8, 2013

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Tacloban City
November 2013

Photo by Yeb57Sao
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United Nations Conference!


Warsaw, Poland!
November 11, 2013

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Climate Change
is now recognized as the most
pervasive and serious
threat to humanity

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5 REALITIES
1. Climate Change is real.
2. 9 out of 10 disasters globally are climate-
related.
3. The poor are the most vulnerable.
4. This will be a long-term challenge.
5. There is hope.

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How do we confront climate


change?

61

Draw Four Straight Lines


through all nine dots
without lifting your pen

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65

CLIMATE
CHANGE
Eye of Super Typhoon Pablo

SYMPTOM OF A PLANETARY
SYSTEM IN CRISIS
Photo by NASA
66

What are
the major
challenges
67

Teka, ano
nga ba ang
climate
change
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70

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Humans are fundamentally


dependent on the availability of
biological resources and ecosystem
services for food, shelter, ber,
climate stability, etc.

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Natural Greenhouse Eect

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Enhanced Greenhouse Eect

Global warming

75

the Earth has been

unequivocally
warming up
0.85C

since the 1860s up to 2012


(IPCC, 2013)
76

World
Temperature

Each of the last three decades


has been successively warmer
at the Earths surface than any
preceding decade since 1850

77

the Earth will be

warming up even
more

2-6C

in next 100 years


78

Concentrations of

greenhouse gases

in the

atmosphere
on the rise

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1st humans

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The Mauna Loa measurements

81
81

We have !
breached!

400 !
ppm

1st humans

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84
84

85
85

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Mercury
Mercury's surface experiences the
greatest temperature variation of all
the planets, ranging from 100 K
(173 C) at night to 700 K (427 C)
during the day at some equatorial
regions. The poles are constantly
below 180 K (93 C)

Average
temperature:!
167 C

87
87

Human activities

are causing

accelerated
climate change

88

big

How

is yours?

89
89

y
l
e
k
i
l
y
l
e
m
e
r
t
)
x
3
E
1
0
2
,
C
C
(IP

Human inuence
as dominant cause of
global warming
90

Photo: davipt/Flickr

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92

93

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Despite the

overwhelming
scientic evidence

95
95

96
96

There are a lot of people


(1 out of 4 Americans) who

deny the reality


of climate change

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97

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Source: The Guardian UK


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When we change
the climate,
we change

everything.
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CLIMATE
CHANGE
Eye of Super Typhoon Pablo

SYMPTOM OF A PLANETARY
SYSTEM IN CRISIS
Photo by NASA
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climate
change
impacts
are accelerating
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The Snows of Kilimanjaro

1993

2007

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Arctic Massive Ice Melting

105

2012

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106

Arctic
melting

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108
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Unstoppable Polar Ice Melt?

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Larsen Ice Shelf

MASBATE

Antarctica

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Upsala Glacier, Patagonia, Argentina


1928

2004

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Paano na tayo
dito sa Pilipinas

112

How will climate


change aect us
here in the
Philippines
113

Warmer

Temperatures
More

Warm days
More

Warm nights

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The sea level is rising


3 mm / year
global average

10 mm / year
Philippines
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The Global Mean Sea Level is


projected to rise by

1m

at the end of the century


116
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Typhoons

Stronger

More frequent

More rain

Unpredictable

Storm surges

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Super Typhoons

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2.0C warming by 2050


3.1C warming by 2100

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Drier
No change
Wetter

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Peace

Economy

Food

Biodiversity
Energy

Fisheries

Education

Climate Change
Health

Water

Business
Forests

Environment
Human Settlements
Agriculture
122

How is the
international community

responding
123

WE WERE WARNED
1865: John Tyndall postulated that
gases such as CO2 in the atmospheric
envelope retain the heat

1896: Svante Arrhenius predicted that increases of


atmospheric CO2 from burning fossil fuels would lead to

global warming. He won the Nobel Prize in 1903.


124

BUT THE WORLD DID NOT


LISTEN

1950s: First continuous monitoring reveals


rapidly rising CO2 levels in the atmosphere
!
!

1970s: Beginning of period of atmospheric


warming known as global

125

warming

I DID MY BEST
!

1992: UNCED Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.


The world adopts the Rio

Declaration and gives birth to the

UN Framework Convention on Climate


Change (UNFCCC)
!

1997: The Kyoto Protocol is agreed under the UNFCCC. Includes


the first emissions reduction targets for rich countries to be achieved
between 2008-2012.

126

But I guess my best wasnt good


enough
Past decade: Warmest decade.
!

2003: European heat wave, kills more


than 30,000 people. Scientists report that
one-third of the world afflicted by drought.

127

But I guess my best wasnt good


enough
!
!

2013: Super Typhoon Yolanda


!

strongest typhoon to make landfall in


human history

128

So here we are right where we were


before (maybe even worse)
!

Greenhouse Gas Emissions


have risen by 50% since 1992.
!

129

1992
The United Nations Framework
Convention on Climate Change

130

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The Mission:

Avoid the unmanageable


(miXgaXon)

Manage the unavoidable


(adaptaXon)
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Addressing the

impacts of

climate change involves the greatest

economic and societal

transformation

133

Like many other social problems,


climate change is a crisis created
by the actions of a small minority
of the worlds peoples

134

Like many other social problems,


climate change is a crisis created
by the actions of a small minority
of the worlds peoples

135

136
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!
!

Rich nations just screwed up the chances for


development for the majority of the
worlds poor
138

You want a magic key, so you can go back to


watching television tomorrow? It does NOT exist.

-Noam Chomsky

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Climate change?
There is NO

silver bullet.

140


Quick-xes will never address these

critical issues because the struggle

against climate change has to

be part of the larger ght for a more

just, caring and equitable world

141

No discussion on climate change


can be in isolation from any
a discussion on social justice.

142

Based on these most recent


developments in the global
eorts to solve climate
change,

we are in for a very


challenging future
143

We have to deal
with the impacts

4C

of a
warmer world
(2100)

144

Projected Impacts of Climate Change


Global temperature change (relative to pre-industrial)
0C

2C

1C

Food

3C

4C

5C

Falling crop yields in many areas,


particularly developing regions
Falling yields in many
developed regions

Water

Water supplies
threatened

Significant decreases in water availability


in many areas

Sea level rise


threatens major cities

Ecosystems
Extensive Damage to
Coral Reefs
Extreme
Weather
Events

Rising number of species

face extinction

Rising intensity of storms, forest fires, droughts, flooding and heat waves

Risk of Abrupt and


Major Irreversible
Changes

Increasing risk of dangerous feedbacks and abrupt,


large-scale shifts in the climate system

Source: Inter-Governmental Panel On Climate Change

145

What is in store
for us here in the
Philippines
146

What awaits us

in the future

147

Will we have enough

food and
water?

Photo by Yeb Sao


148

peace
149

safe and secure

150

happiness
& well-being

151

Development

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153

4,130
Disasters from 2002 to 2011

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1
million
Human deaths in past ten
years due to disasters

155

1.195
trillion

Economic losses (in US$) in past 10


years due to disasters

156

157

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Imagine the
repercussions for
the Philippines

159

Climate change impacts will

overtake us

160

Environmental action must


address root causes

Photo by Yeb Sao


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We must be able to adapt and


become resilient to storms.
Photo by Yeb Sao
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poverty, vulnerability

Address

Photo by Yeb Sano


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Promote

environmental sustainability

Photo by Yeb Sano


164


Our social,
poliDcal, and
economic
frameworks
should avoid
increasing
climate risk.

Photo by Yeb Sao


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We have to protect our communities.

166

Best Practices for


Resilient Communities
!

The Ten Is I learned from


Camotes Island

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Institutions

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Investments

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3 Information

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4 Infrastructure

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Interface

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6
Implementation

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Instruction

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8 Integration

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9Intelligence

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Inclusion

10

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Is climate change
the only problem

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90%
Philippine fish
stocks depleted
(1996)

(Dalzell, 1987)

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2002
22%
(ESSC)

Forest = Resilience

180

Only

4.3%

of coral reefs in the Philippines


in excellent condition,
1990-1999
(Licuanan, Gomez, 2000)

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Photo by Yeb Sao


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Possibly as few as

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Philippine Eagle!
Photo by Yeb Sao!
Mt. Apo Natural Park!
May 2, 2014
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Why are all of these


happening

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We must be able to
answer the quesDon

WHY?

Photo by Yeb Sao


April 2014
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Photo by Yeb Sao


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The prevailing global


development framework ignored
natures limits.

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We are always between two disasters.


(but we need not be)

Ginsaugon, Leyte
Photo courtesy of Manila Observatory
188

DISASTERS
!

occur when social, environmental,


economic, and even political factors
profoundly intersect with hazards

Risk = Exposure (Hazard) x Vulnerability


Capacity
Photo by Yeb Sano

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Is our country prepared for


disasters?

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Is our country prepared


to avoid disasters?

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CLIMATE CHANGE WILL WORSEN


THE IMPACTS OF EXISTING
SOCIETAL, ECONOMIC,
POLITICAL, AND ECOLOGICAL
PROBLEMS

192

Galvanizing
action
Photo by Yeb Sao

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SHARED VISION

Communities,
organizations, national
agencies, local
governments, the private
sector, the youth, church
and religious, must work

together

194

!
!

Can we do

195

it

Our response to the challenge is


limited not by our capacity, not by
our brains we are limited by what
we expect of ourselves.

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Cmaitle
cahgne is an
ipmorantt
isuse for aol
of us.

Photo by Yeb Sano


197

Cmaitle cahnge is the msot


soiures trehat to hmaun
dlenevompet.
Photo by Yeb Sano
198

Acniots slhuod be tkean to esunre


taht our lcoal cmmuotinies, wichh are
at the ferofonrt of the baltte angiast
cmaitle cahgne, are abel to bluid
rsielniece and apadt to the srioeus
cahgnes tkanig palce.

199

It is aobut
pterotcnig our
evonmernint.

200

It is aobut dlenevompet.

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It is a mettar of svuraivl.

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It is also about
transforming
threats into
opportunities.

Photo by Ruel Pine

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Greener communities
Photo by Yeb Sao
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Clean up our mess


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Fight for breathable and liveable


communiDes

Photo by Yeb Sao


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Protect our resources

Photo by Yeb Sao


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Protect our defense systems

Photo by Yeb Sano


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Promoting love for nature.

Photo by Yeb Sao


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... promote love for nature.

Photo by Yeb Sao


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Empower
women

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Promote love of
country

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Shift from road to rail

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Ecient transport

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Pedal power!

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Pursue genuine

sustainable
development

Photo by Yeb Sao


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We must become true

stewards of nature.

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The window of opportunity to


respond to the planetary crisis is
very small.

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But there is still time.

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But the time is


NOW.

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Environmental stewardship is about

convincing others.
228

Advocacy is about promoting

positive change.

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R.S.I.

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R.S.I.

The fastest growing occupational


health injury globally

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The QWERTY keyboard

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The Dvorak keyboard

Martha Blackburn, the worlds fastest typist uses this


keyboard.
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My Dvorak Keyboard

235

Solving the environmental crisis


means EMBRACING POSITIVE
CHANGE.

236

EMBRACING POSITIVE CHANGE


means solving the environmental
crisis.

237

What makes facebook so eective?

238

Real people. Real ties.

239

As advocates, the challenge is how


to mold peoples minds and hearts.

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The journey will be


difficult. But if we stand
together, we will overcome
the challenges.

Bundle of Sticks
Action Plan
242

Confronting
climate change means
BUILDING A
BETTER NATION.
Ground Zero
Bgy. Anibong, Tacloban City
December 17, 2013

Photo by Desiree Llanos Dee

243

What matters
most to you?

244

Saan ka
masaya?

245

Climate change is a problem our children will inherit.

246

They deserve to learn about it.

247

The environmental crisis is a very


visual and sensorial issue.

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Climate change is a real world


problem that the students can nd
meaning in and allow them to reach
their full poten;al.

249

Learning through problem-based


environmental educa;on provides a rich
experience for students.

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!
!

I just made a difference for that one.


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Can we make a
difference

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!
!

Do you want to make a


difference

264

!
!

Then be the difference.

265

!
!

YOU ARE NOT HERE


BY ACCIDENT.

266

!
!

We are all part of the


same
historic and spiritual
journey.
267

we
are

all here

on a

mission

268

!
!

A mission to change
the world

269

!
!

A mission to change
the world for the
better

270

Education is the most powerful


weapon which you can use to
change the world.
!

271

GO, and
change the
world!
Photo by Yeb Sao
272

!
!

Can we rise
to the

challenge
273

We must.

inquirer.net

274

"I die without seeing the


dawn brighten over my
native land. You who have
it to see, welcome it -- and
forget not those who have
fallen during the night!"

- Dr. Jose P. Rizal

275

Mamamayapa akong hindi na


masisilayan ang maliwanag na
pagbubukang liwayway sa
aking lupang sinilangan;
kayong makakakita, batiin
ninyo ito at huwag niyong
ibaon sa limot ang mga taong
pumanaw sa dilim ng gabi.

- Elias, Noli Me Tangere


ni Dr. Jose P. Rizal
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We are at war.

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... a war we cannot


aord to lose.

278

Can we win this battle?

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With empowered
communities,
we will.

280

Tindog Pilipinas!

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Salamat po!
@YebSano
Naderev Yeb Sao

http://www.climate.gov.ph
!
yeb.sano@climate.gov.ph
!
climatechangecommissioner.blogspot.com

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www.climate.gov.ph
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