Modeling Trace Element Concentrations in

the San Francisco Bay Estuary from Remote

Measurement of Suspended Solids
Johanna Press, Yale University

Jennifer Broughton, UC Santa Cruz
Dr. Raphael Kudela, UC Santa Cruz
Exist naturally in environment at
less than 1000ppm
Larger concentrations from
anthropogenic activity
Dissolved concentration
determines bioavailability

Trace Element Pollutants
2
Exist naturally in environment at
less than 1000ppm
Larger concentrations from
anthropogenic activity
Dissolved concentration
determines bioavailability

Trace Element Pollutants
3
4
San
Francisco
Oakland
Palo
Alto
Regional Monitoring
Program disadvantages:
Low spatial and
temporal coverage
High cost

HICO image from
September 17, 2011
chosen to align with in
situ sampling dates


5
San
Francisco
Oakland
Palo
Alto
From Benoit et al. (2010)
Regional Monitoring
Program disadvantages:
Low spatial and
temporal coverage
High cost

HICO image from
September 17, 2011
chosen to align with in
situ sampling dates


6
San
Francisco
Oakland
Palo
Alto
From Benoit et al. (2010)
Regional Monitoring
Program disadvantages:
Low spatial and
temporal coverage
High cost

Project Goals
Apply trace element models of Benoit et al. (2010)
using remote sensing imagery
Validate a method for consistent, thorough, and
cost-effective monitoring of trace element
concentrations in the San Francisco Bay
Calculating Suspended Solids Concentration
7
Suspended Solids Concentration (mg/L) R
rs
634nm Band
San
Francisco
Oakland
Palo
Alto
Tested semi-analytical and empirical algorithms
Significant (p<0.001) linear correlation with R
rs
in 634nm band

Calculating Suspended Solids Concentration
8
Suspended Solids Concentration (mg/L)
San
Francisco
Oakland
Palo
Alto
Tested semi-analytical and empirical algorithms
Significant (p<0.001) linear correlation with R
rs
in 634nm band

Trace Element Models
b m SSC WCT
b m D
root ap
SSC log
(1)

(2)

(3)
6
6
10 SSC
10 WCT
WCD

D
Benoit et al. (2010)
WCT = Water Column Total Concentration (g/L)
WCD =Water Column Dissolved Concentration (g/L)
D = Distribution Ratio
SSC = Suspended Solids Concentration (mg/L)
9
Quantile Regression
10
C
D
E
F
Quantiles are the data values marking subset boundaries in the cumulative
distribution function
Defined by geographic region
Quantile regression estimates the rate of change at quantiles of the sampled
concentration to account for non-uniform variance of the modeled concentration
Removing region C Removing region D
Removing region E Removing region C
11
Removing region C Removing region D
Removing region E Removing region C
12
Suspended Solids Concentration (mg/L)
From sfbay.wr.usgs.gov
Effects of Sun Glint
13
USGS in situ data
Robust Regression
Removing region C All regions
14
Method of least absolute deviations minimizes the influence
of outliers for data with a non-normal distribution

Water Column Total Concentration
15
Water Column Dissolved Concentration
16
WCT WCD
Element R
2
p
R
2
from
Benoit et al.
R
2
p
R
2
from
Benoit et al.
Ag 0.592 0.01
As 0.72237 0.00003 0.444 0.58612 0.00055 0.47
Cd 0.51539 0.00174 0.125 0.56157 0.00083 0.08
Co 0.75106 0.00013 0.785 0.44768 0.01239 0.20
Cr
Cu 0.52742 0.00144 0.552 0.84033 0.00000 0.55
Fe 0.73997 0.00016 0.946 0.03
Hg 0.65264 0.00084 0.547 0.05
Mn 0.57091 0.00282 0.532 0.38
Ni 0.77116 0.00008 0.690 0.76543 0.00009 0.45
Pb 0.68624 0.00087 0.846 0.03
Se 0.351 0.59
Zn 0.61393 0.00257 0.858 0.39375 0.00926 0.06
Robust Regression Results
17
Element
Max. WTC
(g/L)
EPA Limit
(g/L)
WCT/
Limit
As 5.117 0.018*

28425%
Cd 0.138 0.250

55.0%
Cu 2.005 3.10

64.66%
Fe 1141.8 1000.0

114.18%
Hg 0.0051 0.94

0.54%
Mn 30.454 50.0* 60.91%
Ni 6.509 8.20

79.38%
Pb 0.728 <0.001

72750%
Zn 5.232 81.0

6.46%
Toxicity in the San Francisco Bay
18
* National Recommended Water Quality, Human Health Criteria
National Recommended Water Quality, Aquatic Life Criteria
National Primary Drinking Water Regulations
Element
Max. WTC
(g/L)
EPA Limit
(g/L)
WCT/
Limit
As 5.117 0.018*

28425%
Cd 0.138 0.250

55.0%
Cu 2.005 3.10

64.66%
Fe 1141.8 1000.0

114.18%
Hg 0.0051 0.94

0.54%
Mn 30.454 50.0* 60.91%
Ni 6.509 8.20

79.38%
Pb 0.728 <0.001

72750%
Zn 5.232 81.0

6.46%
Toxicity in the San Francisco Bay
19
* National Recommended Water Quality, Human Health Criteria
National Recommended Water Quality, Aquatic Life Criteria
National Primary Drinking Water Regulations
Applications
Consistent, synoptic, cost-effective monitoring of
trace element concentrations
Environmental assessment following episodic events
(floods, storms, and algal blooms)
Understanding the role of trace elements in regional
biogeochemical cycling

Future Work
Modeling pollutant sources and pathways using
sequential image analysis and hydrological models
Analyzing vertical profiles of trace element
concentrations in the water column
20
Acknowledgements
Jen Broughton and Dr. Raphe Kudela, UC Santa Cruz





Dr. Emily Schaller, Rick Shetter, and NASA SARP!
21