914 and 2014:Uncomfortable parallels and

continuing conflicts
by Rajan Philips-August 16, 2014, 6:22 pm

The hundredth anniversary of the Great War
(World War I) has spawned many speculative comparisons between !"
and #$"% The &conomist' as well as the (ew )tatesman' saw
*uncomfortable parallels*' while eminent historians in the West have
wei+hed in on either side of the debate as to whether the world,s financial
crisis' on+oin+ conflicts in the -iddle &ast and ./raine' and bi+ power
tensions around the )outh 0hina )ea are similar to the antecedents of
World War and can i+nite a major confla+ration this decade' if not this
year% There is optimism' and there was optimism in !1 and for the first
five months of !"' that the world after World War II (that /illed 2$
million people and nu/ed 3iroshima and (a+asa/i) is so different from the
worlds that preceded and soon followed World War I (that too/ out a mere
$ million in a relatively primitive way)' with copious chec/s and balances'
formal and informal' to prevent history from repeatin+ itself hundred years
later% Writin+ in 4ecember #$1' The &conomist saw the two most
troublin+ parallels between !" and #$" as complacency and
nationalism' and recommended two precautionary measures5 a set of
mechanisms to diffuse potential dan+ers before they blow up' and an
active 6merican forei+n policy%
*0omplacency is the enemy of study*' wrote 0hairman -ao in his little Red
7oo/ many decades a+o% The 0hina that -ao unified and strove to turn
into a communist e8ample is now 6merica,s bi++est challen+er as a
capitalist economic power% 6nd The &conomist that was once the fla+ship of
unbridled capitalism is today a well-rounded journal of sober comment% It
ri+htly sees complacency as the enemy of peace% The differences between
the middle and late #$th century 0old War years' and early #st century
could not be more dramatic% 9et' those differences do not necessarily
ne+ate the similarities between !" and #$"% 7ritain was the imperial
superpower and Germany its main challen+er in !"' and the school of
similarity sees its replication in the current power tussle between the .)
and 0hina% )imilarities are also seen in the rivalries for domination in the
world of finance and in the penchant for information and intelli+ence
+atherin+ : with the .) eavesdroppin+ even amon+ friends and 0hina
accused of pilferin+ trade and technolo+y secrets% The +eopolitical
flashpoints have shifted from the 7al/ans to the -iddle &ast and more
recently to 0rimea and northeast &urope' but there are similarities in the
practice of economic sanctions' and the intrusion of +eopolitics into
international ban/in+' as a form of military containment%
6t the same time' it is not difficult to see that the competition between the
.) and 0hina is a world apart from the competition that do++ed 7ritain
and Germany and eventually led to World War % The .) and 0hina have
no interest in declarin+ war on one another to show ultimate solidarity with
any of the parties to on+oin+ conflicts% The veto power at the .( )ecurity
0ouncil is a harmless alternative to pullin+ the tri++er in support of an ally%
3ere,s the real rub about complacency in our time% 7ecause of the mindset
that no conflict is li/ely to e8plode on a +lobal scale' there is no real
incentive to brin+ any conflict under control and deal with it sooner than
later% The deterrents of nuclear disaster and dual superpower ensured
relative peace durin+ the 0old War' and when the superpowers rec/lessly
ventured into wars on their own' to wit : the .) in ;ietnam and .))R in
6f+hanistan' they ended up with bloody noses but not before wrea/in+
havoc on ;ietnamese and 6f+han societies% ;ietnam has since risen from
the ashes with characteristic Indochinese li+htness of bein+% 6f+hanistan'
with all the heaviness of )outh 6sian and -iddle &astern cultures' is still
stru++lin+ after not one' but two superpower onslau+hts%
<ld conflicts in
new conditions
6lmost all of the on+oin+ #st century conflicts had their ori+ins in the
#$th century' some as early as the first World War' if not even earlier% True'
nationalism is a parallel between !" and #$"' but if it is troublin+ now
it is for different reasons from what they were a hundred years a+o% The
=irst World War tri++ered the >+lobali?ation, of the nation-state model
beyond its &uropean ori+ins' and formali?ed the ri+ht of self-determination
e8ternally between countries (Woodrow Wilson) and internally within
empires (@enin)% 7y the end of the twentieth century the nation-state had
passed its pea/ of relevance as a territorial socio-political matri8% The
!A$s saw a proliferation of self-deterministic claims but hardly any of
them reached fruition%
The brea/up of the )oviet .nion and the re-bal/ani?ation of 9u+oslavia
were not a new phase in nationalist revolutions' as the West self-servin+ly
provo/ed them' but necessary aberrations which could have been
mana+ed less bloodily% The )cottish referendum this comin+ )eptember is
more a charm offensive than a bitter confrontation between the
proponents and opponents of )cottish independence% 7ut nationalist
conflicts are not always that pleasant or have a happy endin+ for all
parties% This is not to su++est that nation states have become redundant
and are about to disappear tomorrow' or in this century% While nation
states have not become redundant' the states are losin+ their autonomy
and power in the face of +lobali?ation% &thnic and transnational sentiments
are seepin+ throu+h state boundaries% (on-state actors have become a
major force in every political conflict in the world%
The crisis in ./raine' which started off as a petty tit for tat between Putin
and the West' has now snowballed into somethin+ borderin+ on a new 0old
War% The difference this time is that financial sanctions have replaced
nuclear armaments% While the conflict is not li/ely to escalate beyond the
borders of ./raine' its implications have a far wider reach% In a bold
pro+nosis envisa+in+ *6 Grand 7ar+ain with Russia*' Russian academic
;ladislav Ina?emetsev and -oscow-based commentator 6nton 7arbashin'
have su++ested the dissolution of (6T< and the creation of a new alliance
includin+ Russia' a new -arshal Plan for all the countries that were part of
the .))R' and cooperation between Russia and West in developin+ )iberia'
as lon+ term strate+ies to prevent Russia,s alienation from the West% In
such a scenario' Russia will invariably have to return 0rimea to ./raine
and respect its independence% 7oth Putin and the West are eBually at fault
for the present crisis% Putin,s misdemeanors are well /nown' but the West
also has contributed to the current standoff by pic/in+ favourites from
within the .))R and encirclin+ Russia and Putin for no reason instead of
includin+ Russia in a new alliance%
In the -iddle &ast' it will be difficult for anyone to ima+ine any /ind of
bar+ain' +rand or humble% 6lmost all of the current state boundaries in the
-iddle &ast were drawn followin+ the collapse of the <ttoman &mpire in
the =irst World War% 6 hundred years later' they remain as contentious as
ever% In fact' the new non-state contender' the Islamic )tate (the
or+ani?ation now simply calls itself by the first two words' and not I)I) or
I)I@)' has turned the inviolability of national boundaries on its head% <n
the other hand' the Curds' havin+ waited forlornly for so lon+ may end up
havin+ a territorial nation state of their own% The Palestinians continue to
stru++le for a two-state solution without the prospect of even half a state%
Israel after scorchin+ Ga?a has finally +ot some comeuppance with char+es
of war crimes at the .(3R0% Rather than avoidin+ summons Israel is
claimin+ to be +ettin+ ready to mount a le+al defense of its asymmetric
warfare in Ga?a' at the .(3R0 inBuiry%
What the &conomist saw in *active 6merican forei+n policy* as a
precautionary means to contain conflict situations within limits' was +iven
a more muscular e8position last wee/ by 3illary 0linton in her much
publici?ed interview with The 6tlantic ma+a?ine% Ta/in+ a not at all subtle
swipe at President <bama' the former )ecretary of )tate (and upcomin+
presidential contender) derided <bama,s *don,t do stupid stuff* approach
to forei+n policy as not an *or+ani?in+ principle* befittin+ a *+reat nation%*
-rs% 0linton has since clarified that she was not critici?in+ her former boss
and received eBual publicity for reportedly hu++in+ it out and ma/in+ up
with the President at a mutual friend,s birthday party%
There is no denyin+' however' that 3illary 0linton stands for a forthri+htly
forceful 6merican forei+n policy far more in line with 0old War era
6merican Presidents than President <bama% The Buestion is whether the
old muscular forei+n policy is appropriate to today,s circumstances% =ormer
President 7ill 0linton used to say that 6merica must lead *by the power of
its e8ample and not the e8ample of its power%* That is as +ood an
or+ani?in+ principle as any *+reat nation* could aspire to have% 6nd
President <bama,s approach is closer to this principle than what is
su++ested by 3illary 0linton% <ne can only hope that as a potential ne8t
President' 3illary 0linton will not espouse 6merica,s or+ani?in+ forei+n
policy principle or President 7ush,s *moral clarity* that led him to invade
IraB%
Posted by Thavam