22/07/14 The Vineyard of the Saker: Memories, recollections, guesses and speculations about MH17

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Abird'seyeviewofthevineyard
TheVineyardoftheSaker
F r i d a y , J u l y 1 8 , 2 0 1 4
Memories,recollections,guessesandspeculationsabout
MH17
Introandcaveat
IthinkthatanyanalysisoftheeventssurroundingthedowningofMH17shouldbeginwiththefollowing
admission:nomatterwhat,theAngloZionistswillblameRussia.Justlike9/11,thereisnoway,noamountof
evidence,whichwouldaffecttheunanimouschorusofImperialdoubleplusgoodthinkersintheirconclusionthat
obviouslyitcouldonlyhavebeen"theRussians".Sodon'texpecttocomeacrossTheProofwhichwillprove
thattheEmpireislyingbecauseif9/11provedanythingitisthatevenhard,undeniabletruthcanbeeasily
ignoredbytheelitesandtheirmedia.
Second,Ihavetobeginmy"kindofanalysis"withthefollowingdisclaimer:myinformationonairdefenseissues
isabout2530yearsoldwhichmeansthatnotonlycouldmymemoryfailme,butthingsmighthavechangeda
greatdealsinceIlastwasexposedtothem.Finally,theplacefromwhichIobservedairdefensehappening
wasaratherpeculiarone:fromaundergroundarmycommandcenter'sairdefenseroomwhichincludedalive
fused(civilian+military)imageofalltheairtrafficoveranentirecontinent.InevergotanywherenearaSAMsite
inmylife,andIsurehaveneverseenonebeingoperated.Still,thereareafewthingswhichIknowwhichmight
berelevanttothiscase.
IfIgotsomethingwrong,orifthingshaverecentlychanged,PLEASECORRECTME.
Howairdefensenormallyworks
Thecontrolofairspaceisdonebytwocompletelydifferentnetworks:acivilianandamilitaryone.Thecivilian
oneistheonepeoplethinkofwhentheyhearATC(airtrafficcontrol).Thesearethefolkswhomanageflight
plans,whotalktopilotsondifferentaltitudes,whotracktheaircraftduringtheflightandmakesurethatthereis
enoughdistancebetweenthem.Dependingonanairplane'saltitudeandwhatitisdoing,itremainsincontact
withdifferentATCsbuttheyallworktogether.Onemorething:theradarsusedbycivilianATCarevery
primitive,alltheycan"see"isabearing.Whathelpsthemisthatallaircrafthaveasocalled"transponder"to
transmitaspecialmessagewhichindicatestheirID,speed,altitudeandcourse.TheATCthensuperimposes
thatinfoonhisscreentogetaprettyaccurateideaofwhattheaircraftisdoing.Theimportantthingaboutall
thisisthatthemilitaryisnormallypatchedstraightintothatdataandthatitcanuseittosupplementthedata
militaryradarsacquirebythemselves.Inotherwords,amilitaryairdefensenetwork"sees"and"knows"
everythingthataciviliansATCknowsandsees.
ThetaskofmilitaryairdefensesisdramaticallydifferentfromtheciviliansATC:themilitaryexpectstodealwith
aircraftwhowilldotheirutmosttoremainundetectedandoncedetected,themilitaryairdefensenetworkhasto
figureoutawaytohopefullyshootdowntheenemyaircraft.Asaresult,thekindoftechnologyusedbythe
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militaryisverydifferent.
Thefirst"layer"ofamilitaryairdefensenetworkwillbelongrangedetectionradars.Theirtaskistotrytodetect
anairbornetargetasfaraspossible.Althoughonetypeofradarcandothisalone,typicallydatafromdifferent
radars(includingairborneones)isfusedtocreateasinglepicture.Alreadyatthispointtheairdefense
commandpostwillbepatchedinintotheciviliansATCanditwillhavealltheflightplans,airlinenames,aircraft
typesandexpectedflightroutes.Theairdefensecommandpost'sfirsttaskistoseparatecivilians(considered
neutral)frompossiblehostiles.These99%offlightsareroutineandregular,thefolksinchargehaveavery
goodideaofwhatanormalskylookslike,theyseethescheduledciviliansaircraftdoingtheirthingandthey
easilytrackthem.Somemilitaryradarsevenhavethecapabilitytodetectthekindofaircrafttheyareseeingon
theirradarsimplybyanalyzingtheradarsignalbouncedback(typicallybytheaircraft'sengine).Ifatargetis
ambiguous,themilitarycanuseaverydifferenttypeofradartotrackthattarget:thistargetacquisitionradarwill
operateonadifferentfrequency,itwillhaveamuchnarrowerbeam,anditwillprovidetheoperatorwithmuch
moreinfoabouttheaircrafteveniftheaircraftdoesnothaveaworkingtransponder(whichwouldbemost
unusualforacivilianairliner).Again,modernarmedforceshavethemeanstofusethedatafromanydifferent
radartypes(includingairborneradars)tocalculateasolutiontoidentifyandtrackatarget.Thenextstepisthe
sendaspecialsignal,likeapassword,tocheckifaircraftmightnotbeoneofyourown.Civilianaircraftarenot
capableofthiskindif"electronichandshake".Finally,ifthemilitaryairdefensecommandpostbelievesthatthe
targethishostile,itselectsthebestradarandmissilecombinationtoengagethetarget.Typically,thisisdone
yetagainbyahighlyspecializedradarwhichsendsaburstofenergytothetargetwhichisreflectedbythe
airbornetargetandwhichisthencaughteitherbyagroundbasedradarorevenbythemissileitself(thatis
calledTVMtrackviamissile)whichthencanguideitselftothetargetwithoutemittinganysignal(alternatively,
themissilecanusehisownactiveguidancesystemwhichsendsandreceivesradarsignals).Advancedair
defensenetworks,suchasRussia's,canautomaticallychosethebestradarforeachtask,themissilemost
likelytohit,thenumberofmissilesneededforthetask,themostthreateningtarget,themodeofengagement,
etc.Thesesystemsarehighlyintegratedandhighlyautomated,whichalsomeansthattheyaremuchsafer
thanmoreprimitivesystems(moreaboutthatlater).Theyarealsohighlyredundantwhichinpracticalterms
meansthatif,say,inanidealenvironmentamissilesystemliketheBukM1isjustonepartofamuchbigger
networkofsystems,itcanalsooperatealmostautonomouslyifneeded(again,moreaboutthatlater).Nowwe
needtolookatthe"whohadwhat"onthedayofthetragedy.First,let'slookat
TheRussikiesandtheircapabilities.
While,obviously,theydon'tsharewithmethedetailsoftheirmoves,itisaprettysafeguesstosaythat,
especiallyconsideringthewargoingonrightacrosstheborder,theRussiansliterallyhaditallonthatday:
civiliansradars,ofcourse,butalsolongrangeradars(groundbasedandairborne),lotsofadvancedadvanced
surveillance(longrangedetection)radars,lotsoftrackingandfirecontrolradarsnumerousradioandsignal
interceptionstations.Sinceallthedatafromthisintegratednetworkofsystemscouldbefusedatthehigher
levelcommandpostswecansafelyassumethattheRussiansidehadsomethinglike"20/20radarvision":just
aboutasgoodasitcanget.ThereisnowaytheRussianshotdownthisaircraftbymistake.
WhatabouttheUkrainians?
Heretherealityisdramaticallydifferent:almostalloftheUkrainianairdefenseequipmentishopelessly
outdated,farinexcessofitsnormalshelflife.TheUkieairdefensesystemshavenottrainedwithlivefiringfor
dacades.UnliketheRussianwhousecontractedprofessionalsonallcruciallevels,theUkiesareknowntobe
usingconscriptssimplyduetoalackoffunds.ToillustratethebloodlymesstheUkieairdefensesare,itis
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enoughtorecallherehowgrossincompetence,mismanagementandoutdatedequipmentresultedinthedowning
oftheSiberianAirlinescivilianaircraftin2001.Sincethen,thingsintheUkieairdefenseshaveonlygotten
muchworse.Still,theUkiesdidhaveanATCwhichattheveryleastshouldhavereportedthatacivilianairline
hadaflightplanwhichwouldfollowthepointsXYZ.IjustcannotimagineaUkieofficergivingtheordertoshoot
atanaircraftwithoutcheckingfortheavailableflightplans.Also,asfarasIknow,nobodyeverreportedthat
thetransponderontheaircraftdidnotworkand,ifso,thenthatmeansthattheUkieairdefensecrewshould
havebeenreceivingaclearsignalidentifyingtheaircraft.Letmeaddherethatyoucanpurchasespecial
receiversandantennaswhichcanreceivetranspondersignalsonthemarketandthattheyarecomparatively
cheap(1000bucksrangeIthink).Lastly,butstillanoption,aUkieairdefenseoperatorcouldhavesimplylifted
thephone,calledtheATCandaskedwhosuchandsuchaircraftwas.Andevenwithoutthat:whenyouseean
aircraftflyingrightaround550knotsat10'000minastraightlineinacivilianairtrafficcorridor,youcankinda
guessthatthisisnotamilitaryaircraftonabombingrun.SoregardlessofthestateofdisrepairoftheUkieair
defenseforces,thereisjustnowaythattheycouldhavemistakenthisairlinerforaRussianmilitaryjetflyingon
acombatmission.Oh,anddidImentionMH17wasflyingonwesttoeastcourse,notfromRussia,but
towardsRussia?Bottomlinehereformeisthis:thereisnowaytheUkiescouldhaveshotdownthisaircraftby
mistake.
TheNovorussiansnow
Well,hereagainwetrulyhaveadramaticallydifferentpictureemerging.First,theNovorussianshavenoATC.
Second,99%oftheirairdefensesystemsareeitherMANPADs(manportable)orheavymachineguns.Idid
seefootageofsomekindofairdefenseradarandcommandpost,butIsuspectthatthiswassimplyone
surveillanceradarleftbytheUkies.Nodatafusionhere,nointegratedairdefensenetwork,nolongrange
missiles.ExceptforthefewBukM1swhichtheydidgetasatrophywhentheytookcontrolaUkiebasea
monthorsoago.ThefactisthatIamstillunsurewhethertheyreallygotanythingoperablesystemsatall(the
Ukiesclaimthattheirsoldiershaddisabledthem,butthatmightnotbetrue).Butweprobablyhavetoassume
thattheygottheirhandsonaleastoneoperationalvehiclewithitsownsurveillanceradar,engagementradar
andmissiles.AsImentionedearlier,modernstateswouldintegratetheBukintoafullairdefensenetwork,but
sinceinwartimethismightnotbepossible,itispossiblefortheBuktodetect,acquireandengageatargetall
byitself.Frankly,IfinditveryunlikelythatthesystemstheNovorussiansgottheirhandsonwouldhavebeen
operational.Ifinditevenmoreunlikelythattheywouldalsohavethepeopletooperatethem.Still,justtocover
ourbases,wehavetoassumethatwithRussianaidthesesystemscouldhavebeenmoreorlessfixed,and
thatacrewcouldalsohavebeensentfromRussia.Unlikely?Farfetched?Yes.But,alas,notimpossible.
Still,thereistheflightprofileissue.TherealthreatforNovorussianscomesfromcloseairsupport(lowlevel)
andfromreconnaissance(mediumlevel)aircraft.Notthoseflyingat10'000meters.Also,aBoeing777is
muchlargerthananAn26,Su25,Su24orevenSu27.Also,askyourself,IFyouhadsuchacapableand
advancedairdefensesystemastheBuk,wouldyouwasteitonapoorlyidentifiedtarget?Probablynot.Still,I
thinkthatatleastintheorytheNororussianscouldhaveshotdownthisaircraft.Nowlet'slookatthefamous
Cuibono?
Wellhereatleastthereplyisunambiguous:onlythejuntainKievcouldhavebenefitedfromthistragedy.For
theRussiansandtheNovorussians,thisissomethingbetweenarealpainandadisaster.Justwhenthe
NovorussianswerewinningwithoutanyoverthelpfromMoscowandjustwhenMoscowwasgradually
successfulindenouncingthehumancostsofPoroshenko'smurderouspoliciessuddenlytheentireplanet
focusesjustononedownedaircraftandtheimperialcorporatemediablamesitallonRussia.Asfor
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Poroshenko,thisdisasterisGodsent:notonlyhaseverybodyforgottenthatmuchpromised"surprise"turned
outtobeadisaster,hecannowkillscoresofNovorussianswithnorisksofthatbeingreportedinthecorporate
media.Notonlythat,butthatgivestheUkiesagoldenexcusetoaskfor""protection"fromtheir"aggressive
andthreateningneighbor".Again,theonlypartywhocanbenefitfromthisdisasteristhejunta.So,in
summary,wehavethislistofcandidates:
1)AdeliberateormistakenRussianattack:superlativelyunlikely
2)AmistakenUkrainianattack:mostunlikely
3)AdeliberateUkrainianattack:mostlikely
4)AmistakenNovorussianattack:possible
5)AdeliberateNovorussianattack:mostunlikely
Idon'tknowaboutyou,buttome#3istheoneblinkingred.
Nowlet'slookatsomeofthecrazyrumorswhichwehaveheardtoday.
a)oneortwoUkiemilitaryaircraftshadowingMH17beforeitwasshotdown.
b)atleastoneparachuteafterMH17wasshotdown.
c)anairtoairattack.
d)anattemptasshootingdownPutin'saircraft.
Idon'tknowifanyoftheseabovearetrue,butwhatIdonoticeisthatallofthem,iftrue,only'fit'scenario#3:a
deliberateUkieattack.NobodyclaimedthatMH17wasshadowedbyRussianfightersandtheNovorussians
don'thaveanyanyway(theyonlyhaveoneSu25).Ifsomebodywasshotdown(theparachutes)thenitwas
mostdefinitelynotaRussianAirForceaircraft.Dittoforanairtoairattack.AsforshootingdownPutin's
aircraft,thisseemsfarfetchedtome,evenforthecrazyfreakshowinpowerinKiev.However,Iwouldnotput
thatkindoftrickpassedUncleSamwhocanalwaysblameitontheUkies.WhatissureisthattheUSwants
Putindead.Somaybe?
ThecurrentversionoftheNovorussiansisaninterestingone:theysaythataUkieSu25shotdownMH17and
thattheythenshotdowntheUkieSu25.Actually,thisisnotthemostunlikelypossibility.Ofcourse,thisalso
meansthatiftheNovorussiansattemptedtoshootdownaUkieSu25theymighthavemissedandthemissile
mighthavecontinuedtowardstheMH17especiallyifitsradarhadgoneactive.SoaNovorussianmistakeis
stilla"possible",atleastinmymind.If,andthisisabigIF,thiswasaNovorussianmistake,Idon'tfeelthat
wecanblamethemverymuch.TheoneundeniablefactisthatthisdisasterhappenedinUkrainianATCspace
andthey,theUkieATC,hadtheprimaryresponsibilitytokeepMH17inasafeaircorridorandnotthe
Novorussianswhohadneitherthetechnicalmeansnorthelegalobligationtodoso.Also,justafewdaysago
theUkieshadannouncedthattheywereclosingtheairspaceoverthecombatzonetoanaltitudeof9600m(ifI
remembercorrectly).IftheNovorussiansheardthis,theycouldhaveeasilyconcludedthatMH17wasamilitary
reconflightflyingtowardsDonestkfromDnepropetrovsk.Besides,IamnotatallsurethattheradarontheBuk
M1candifferentiatebetween9'600mand10'000mor,ifitcan,thattheoperatorwouldhavebeenawareofthe
differencethiscouldmean.
Again,keepinmindmycaveatabove.Iamnot,repeat,notaspecialistofairdefenses.ButIdiddosomeair
defenseandmonitoringworkinmypast,andonthebasisofthatexperienceandofwhatIhaveheardsofaris
heremyguess:
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IwouldsaythatatthispointintimeIam90%infavorofthedeliberateUkieattacktheory.Theremaining
10%IwouldgivetothemistakenNovorussianattackversion.IammorethanwillingtochangemymindifIget
newfacts.
Stuffweshouldlookfor
First,theblackboxes.Evenwhenhit,mostpilotshavethetimetosaysomethingandthatsomethingisusually
recordedandradioed.Dependingonthefrequencyused,that"something"shouldhavebeenheardbyPLENTY
ofreceivers,notonlytheUkieATC.Butattheveryleast,weshouldhavethevoiceanddatarecordersfromthe
lastminutesofMH17.
Second,Russianradartracks.Thatisaproblem.TheRussianmilitaryisoneoftheworstoffendersintermsof
secrecyandshortofadirectorderbyPutin,theyarelikelytobemostuncooperative.Still,theseguysprobably
haveitall:ATCchatter,pilotmessages,transportersignal,exactlocationofthemissile(s)launched,pointof
impact,etc.AsIsaid,theymostlikelyhada20/20visionoftheairspaceoverDonetsk.Thetrickistoget
themtoshareit,especiallywiththecorporatemediaandthe"independent"expertsallalreadyclamoringthatthe
Russiansaretamperingwiththeflightrecorders.Still,thingsarechanginginRussia,possiblyafterthePR
disasterfollowingtheSovietshootingdownofKAL007(whichmostdefinitelywasaUSspymissionand
deliberateprovocation),theyaremorewillingtosharedata.AspokesmanfortheRussianAirForcehasalready
disclosedthattheyhadrecordedthesignalsofaUkieBukM1batterysurveillanceradaratthemomentofthe
tragedy.HeevenidentifiedtheexactUkieunitinvolved.Hopefully,asthisscandalsnowballs,theKremlinwill
ordertheRussianAirForcetomakemoredatapublic.NottoconvinceUncleSamandhisEUminions,of
course,butatleasttoconvincetherestoftheplanet.
SpeakingofUncleSamandhisEUminions.Theyalsoknow.TheUSandNATOmaintainsa24/7surveillance
ofUkieandRussianairspaceatleasttotheUrals,possiblyevenontheotherside(thoughIamnotsure).Ibet
youthatObamawastoldwhodoneitwithin2hoursofthetragedyhappening.Thatinfowasprobablyshared
withtheEcheloncountries,butnotwiththerestofNATO,buteventheyprobablyknowthankstotheirown
intelligencecapability(BanderastanischockfullofEUspiesnotasingleoneofwhichwasevercaughtbythe
UkieSBUsinceindependence!).Sohereagainwehavea9/11kindofsituation:everybodyknows,butnobody
willadmitit.
Thelastquestionthen
Thereisanobviouslastquestionwhichweneedtoask:iftheUkiesdidit,couldtheyhavedonesowithoutthe
USknowingaboutit?Theanswer,incaseanybodyhadanydoubtsaboutthis,isabsolutelycategoricallyand
emphaticallynot.NowayJose,notthisregime,notonewhichis110%dependentof,andsubmittedto,Uncle
Sam.Inotherwords,ifthiswasadeliberateUkieattack,thenthisreallywasadeliberateUSattack.Notquite
a"falseflag",butasneakydirtytrick,alongtimeUSspecialty.ThetypicalUSwayworkslikethis:organized
andplannedbyUncleSam,paidforbytheSaudis,executedbytheIsraelis.Atleastthatisthehistoricalrecord
forUSdirtytricks.Thatisalsomostlikelyhow9/11wasdone.Whybringin9/11severaltimesattheriskof
infuriatingthedoubleplusgoodthinkingcrowdyetagain?No,notjustfortheheckofit,buttoremindeverybody
thatthefolkswhokilled3000+peopleon9/11wouldnothesitateforananosecondtokill"only"300orso,
especiallyiftheriskofgettingcaughtisnegligible,whichinthiscaseitis.Ifinthecaseof9/11itistheentire
Establishmentwhichbystupidityorbycowardicewhichwasmadeanaccompliceofthecrime,inthiscasethe
folkswhodiditwillhavethesupportofarabidlyrussophobicEstablishmentwhichwillnotcareonebitaboutthe
truthaslongasitallowsittofurtherflametheflamesofhatredagainstRussia.
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VINEYARDSAKER:at23:28
AprovisionalconclusionofsortsLasciateOgniSperanza
Thiscrimewillneverbeproperlyinvestigatednorwilltheculpritseverbepunishedforit.Ohsure,therewillbe
plentyofbooksinthefuturewhowillrevealitallinminutedetailsbut,asMichelParentialwaysremindsus,
historyisnotonlywrittenbyvictors,itisalsowrittenbytheelites,theoligarchs,thebankingestablishment,the
1%ers.Ifanything,9/11hasproventhatoursocietyiscompletelyindifferenttofactsandproof.Oursocietyis
ruledbyideologicaldogmaandpoliticalexpediency.InthecaseofMH17theaccepteddogmaisthatthe
Novorussiansarethebadguysandthepoliticalexpediencysaysthatthislatestcrimecannotbeblamedonthe
"heroicEuroUkrainianfreedomfighters"or,evenlessso,onUncleSam.
JustasIwrotethislastsentenceabove,IdecidedtocheckmyfavoriteImperialMouthpieceand,sureenough,
Ireadthis:"USPresidentBarackObamahassaidasurfacetoairmissilefiredfromarebelheldareaineast
UkrainebroughtdownMalaysiaAirlinesflightMH17".See,itisthatsimple!Howneedsflightrecordersofradar
tracksanyway?!IftheUSPresidentsaidso,thenitisso.Anyotherinterpretationisacriminaldelusion
borderingonterrorism.WhoneedsproofwhenwegotbothPoroshenkoandObamasayingthattheRussikies
didit?
Iamdisgustedbeyondwordsbybothoftheseugly,evil,clowns.
Well,Ihopethatthatsomeofyouwillhavefoundtheexercisesaboveuseful,regardlessofallmycaveats.I
wishmyrecollectionofworkingwithairdefenseswasbetterandIwishmyknowledgewasnot25yearold.As
always,thisisthebestIcandoandIshareittoyou,myfriends,inthehopetoresisttheimperialpropaganda
machinethebestIcan.Iftherearethoseamongstyouwhohaveamorerecentandpossiblymorehandson
knowledgeofthesetopics,Ibegthemtosharethatknowledgewiththerestofus.
Kindregardsandmanythanks,
TheSaker
3
187comments:
Anonymous 18July,201423:44
Myguessisitisamix:
100%ChanceUkrainianKievintentionaldirectedtheplaneoverthatpathandlowereditsflight
pathto1000maboveprohibitedspace,AND(then50%UkrainiansshotitdownOR50%the
Self Defense Forces shot it down thinking it was a Military Plane. ) In all cases, it is the
UkrainianKievfailuretoindicatethatshouldbeacompletenoflyzone.Now in return, I have
seven apartments in Lugansk being shelled by massive Ukrainian Arty attacks with the
UkrainiansLyingOpenlyandclaimingtheLPRisshellingtheirowncity.Whichmindyoumany
of these LPR people are Lugansk Residents. Lugansk has a much larger percentage of