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GC UNIVERSITY, LAHORE









DETERMINANTS OF CHILD MORTALITY
USING MULTIPLE REGRESSION
ANALYSIS
by
WALEED NAWAZ
906-BH-STAT-10
AHTISHAM ALI
928-BH-STAT-10
RANA FAIZAN AHMAD
1442-BH-STAT-10

SESSION: 2010-2014


DEPARTMENT OF STATISTICS
ii


A THESIS TITLED

Determinants of Child Mortality Using Multiple
Regression Analysis
Submitted to the GC University, Lahore
in partial fulfillment of the requirements
for the award of the degree of

B.Sc.(Hons.)
In
STATISTICS

By

WALEED NAWAZ
906-BH-STAT-10
AHTISHAM ALI
928-BH-STAT-10
RANA FAIZAN AHMAD
1442-BH-STAT-10

SESSION: (2010-2014)

DEPARTMENT OF STATISTICS
GC UNIVERSITY, LAHORE
iii



B Be ef fo or re e e ev ve er ry yt th hi in ng g, , s sa ay y i in n t th he e n na am me e o of f A Al ll la ah h . .
T Th he er re e i is s n no o d de ei it ty y, , o on nl ly y A Al ll la ah h. .
N No on ne e i is s w wo or rt th hy y o of f w wo or rs sh hi ip p b bu ut t t th he e L Lo or rd d. .
T Th he e c cr re ea at to or r H He e i is s, , t th he e m ma as st te er r H He e i is s, , l li ik ke e u un nt to o t th he e L Lo or rd d
t th he er re e i is s n no on ne e. .
T Th he er re e i is s n no o o ot th he er r d de ei it ty y, , o on nl ly y A Al ll la ah h! ! O On nl ly y A Al ll la ah h! ! O On nl ly y
A Al ll la ah h! !
















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DEDICATED TO


To our families, especially our parents who encouraged and
motivated us to achieve this difficult task in a better and proper
way






























v

DECLARATION

We,Waleed Nawaz Roll No. 906-BH-STAT-10, Ahtisham Ali Roll No. 928-BH-
STAT and Rana Faizan Ahmad Roll No.1442BH-STAT-10 students of
B.Sc.(Hons.) in the subject of Statistics, Session 2010-2014, hereby declare that
the matter printed in the thesis titled Determinants of Child Mortality Using
Multiple Regression Analysis is our own work and has not been printed,
published and submitted as research work, thesis or publication any form in any
University, Research Institution etc. in Pakistan or abroad.




Waleed Nawaz Ahtisham Ali Rana Faizan Ahmad



Date















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RESEARCH COMPLETION CERTIFICATE

Certified that the research work contained in this thesis titled Determinants of
Child Mortality Using Multiple Regression Analysishas been carried out by
Waleed Nawaz, Roll No. 906-BH-STAT-10, Ahtisham Ali Roll No. 928-BH-
STAT-10 and Rana Faizan Ahmad Roll No. 1442-BH-STAT-10under my
supervision during theirB.Sc.(Hons.) in Statistics studies.



Supervisor



Mr. Yasar Mahmood
Lecturer
Department of Statistics
GC University, Lahore(Pakistan)
Date




Submitted Through:


_____________________________
Mr. Jaffer Hussain
Incharge, Department of Statistics
GC University, Lahore (Pakistan)




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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

All and every praise be to Allah Almighty, Who guides us from darkness to light
and help us in difficulty. I am greatly thankful to Allah Almighty and His last
Prophet Hazrat Muhammad (SAW), whose blessings and grace enabled me to
complete this study.

It is a matter of great honor for us that Allah Almighty has given us a golden
chance to carry out our B.Sc. (Hons.)studies and research under noble and kind
person Mr. Yasar Mahmood, Lecturer, Statistics Department, GC University,
Lahore. He deserves a great deal of credit, due to his able guidance, during the
completion of this dissertation.

We are thankful to all our teachers of Department of Statistics, GC University,
Lahore for their cooperation and guidance, especially Mr. Jaffar Hussain,
Chairperson, Department of Statistics, Mr. Masood Amjad Khan and Mam.
Amina Shahzadi, Department of Statistics, GCU Lahore for their kind help. We
are also thankful to all our faculty members.



Waleed Nawaz
Ahtisham Ali
Rana Faizan Ahmad









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TABLE OF CONTENTS

Page
Declaration v
Research Completion Certificate vi
Acknowledgements vii
Abstract viii

Chapter-1: Introduction 1

1.1 Child Mortality 1
1.2 Overview 2
1.2.1 Where are we? 3
1.3 Child Mortality in Pakistan 3
1.4 Levels and Trends of Child Mortality 5
1.5 Determinants of Child Mortality 10
1.5.1 Total Fertility Rate 10
1.5.2 Immunization 11
1.5.3 Gross Domestic Product 11
1.5.4 Literacy Rate 13
1.5.5 Total Health Expenditures 14
1.5.6 Population Density 16
1.5.7 Per Capita Income 17
1.5.8 Socio Economic Factors 17
1.5.8.1 Education 17
1.5.8.2 Income 18
1.5.9 Demographic Factors 18
1.5.9.1 High Fertility Leads to High Mortality Rates 19
1.5.9.2 Intervals in Between Birth 19

Chapter-2: Literature Review 20-25

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Chapter-3: Research Methodology

3.1 Regression 26

3.2 Regression Analysis 26
3.3 Non-Linear Regression 27
3.3.1 Exponential Regression Model 27
3.3.2 Estimation of the Regression Parameters 27
3.3.3 Least Square Estimation in Non-Linear Regression 28
3.3.4 Transformations to Linearize the Model 28
3.3.5 Reasons for Transformations 29
3.4 Linear Regression 29
3.4.1 Simple Linear Regression 29
3.4.2 Multiple Linear Regression 30
3.5 Assumptions of the Linear Regression Model 30
3.6 Methods of Selection of Best Regression Model 31
3.6.1 The R square Criterion 31
3.6.2 The Adjusted R square Criterion 31
3.6.3 Akaikes Information Criterion 32
3.6.4 Schwarz Information Criterion 32
3.6.5 Stepwise Regression 32
3.6.6 Forward Selection 33
3.6.7 Backward Elimination 33

3.7 Decision Rule 33

3.7.1 Probability of F-Statistic 33
3.7.2 Value of F-Statistic 33
3.8 Diagnostic Tests 34
3.8.1 Individual Testing of Regression Coefficients 34
3.8.2 Overall Testing of Regression Coefficients 34
3.8.3 Multicollinearity 35
3.8.4 Normality of Error Terms 36
3.8.5 Heteroscedasticity 36
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3.8.6 Linearity of Dependent Variable 37
3.8.7 Autocorrelation 37
3.8.8 Normality of Dependent Variable 38
3.8.8.1 Kolmogorov-Smirnov Test 38
3.9 Residual Analysis
3.9.1 Correlogram for Residuals
3.9.2 ARCH LM Test
3.9.3 White Test for Heteroscedasticity
Chapter-4: Analysis and Findings
4.1 Normality of Child Mortality
4.2 Stationarity
4.3 Correlogram
4.3.1 Correlogram of Child Mortality
4.3.2 Correlogram of First Differenced Child Mortality

4.4 Regresion of First Differenced Child Mortality On all the Original
Variables
4.5 Regression of Child Mortality on all the Original Variables
4.6 Regression of Log Child Mortality on all the Original Variables
4.7 Regression of First Differenced Child Mortality On Transformed
Variables
4.8 Backward Elimination for the Regression of First Differenced Child
Mortality on Original Variables
4.8.1 Correlogram of Residuals
4.8.2 Correlogram of Squared Residuals
4.8.3 Histogram of Residuals
4.8.4 Serial Correlation LM Test
4.8.5 ARCH LM Test for Homoscedasticity
4.8.6 White Heteroskedasticity Test
4.8.7 Conclusion about the Model
4.9 Regression of Log Child Mortality on Original Variables
4.9.1 Correlogram of Residuals
4.9.2 Correlogram of Squared Residuals
4.9.3 Histogram of Residuals
4.9.4 Serial Correlation LM Test
4.9.5 ARCH LM Test for Homoscedasticity
4.9.6 White Heteroskedasticity Test
4.9.7 Conclusion about the Model
4.10 Regression of First Differenced Child Mortality on Transformed
Variables
4.10.1 Correlogram of Residuals
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4.10.2 Correlogram of Squared Residuals
4.10.3 Histogram Of residuals
4.10.4 Serial Correlation LM Test
4.10.5 ARCH LM Test for Homoscedasticity
4.10.6 Graph for Actual and Fittedvalues with the
Residuals
4.10.7 Graph of Child Mortality and Forecast Child
Mortality
4.11 Interpretations of the Regression Coefficients
4.12 Conclusion


























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LIST OF TABLES
Table No.

Title

Page
4.1.1 KolmogoroveSimirnove Testfor Normality

41
4.4.1
Dependent Variable First Differenced Child Mortality on
Original Variables
51
4.5.1 Dependent Variable Child Mortality on Original Variables 44
4.6.1
Dependent Variable Logarithmic Child Mortality on Original
Variables
53
4.7.1
Dependent Variable First Differenced Child Mortality on
Transformed Variables
54
4.8.1
Dependent Variable Child Mortality with Significant
Variables
55
4.8.4.1 Serial Correlation LM Test 58
4.8.5.1 ARCH Test 58
4.8.6.1 White Test 59
4.9.1
Dependent Variable LOG Child Mortality with original
Significant Variables
59
4.9.4.1 Serial Correlation LM Test 62
4.9.5.1 ARCH Test 62
4.9.6.1 White Test 63
4.10.1
Dependent Variable Child Mortality With Significant
Transformed Variables
64
4.10.4.1 Serial Correlation LM Test 66
4.10.5.1 ARCH Test 67



LIST OF FIGURES

Figure No.

Title

Page
4.1.1 Scatter Plot of Original Variables 45
4.1.2 Scatter Plot of Transformed Variables 48
4.3.1 Correlogram of Child Mortality 49
4.3.2 Correlogram of First Differenced Child Mortality 50
4.8.1
Correlogram of Residuals
56
4.8.2
Correlogram of Squared Residuals
56
4.8.3
Histogram of Residuals
57
4.9.1.1
Correlogram of Residuals
60
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4.9.2
Correlogram of Squared Residuals
61
4.9.3
Histogram of Residuals
61
4.10.1
Correlogram of Residuals
65
4.10.2
Correlogram of Squared Residuals
65
4.10.3
Histogram of Residuals
66
4.10.6
Graph for Actual and Fitted Values with Residuals
69
4.10.7
Forecasting of First Differenced Child Mortality
69




























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ABSTRACT




























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