Brooks y Wohlford. Hard Times For Soft Balancing

Hard Times for Soft Balancing
Author(s): Stephen G. Brooks and William C. Wohlforth

Source: International Security, Vol. 30, No. 1 (Summer, 2005), pp. 72-108
Published by: The MIT Press
Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/4137459 .
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H a r d T i m e s f o r S o f t
Ba la nci ng
S t e phe n
G. Br o o ks
a nd Wi lli a m C.
Wo hlf o r t h
Fr e nch, Ge r m a n,
a nd
Rus s i a n
o ppo s i t i o n
t o t he U.S . i nva s i o n o f
Ir a q
i n 2003
br o ught
t o t he f o r e a
que s t i o n
t ha t ha s be e n a
s t a ple
o f
s cho la r ly
a nd
po li cy
d e ba t e s i nce t he 1991
f a ll o f t he S o vi e t Uni o n: Is t he i nt e r na t i o na l
s ys t e m
o n t he
cus p
o f a ne w ba l-
a nci ng
o r d e r ? In t he
e a r ly-t o -m i d -1990s ,
t he i s s ue i n
d i s put e
wa s whe n t o e x-
pe ct
t he r e t ur n o f
m ult i po la r i t y.1 By
t he t ur n o f t he
m i lle nni um ,
t he
puzzli ng
a bs e nce o f a
ba la nci ng
co a li t i o n
a ga i ns t
t he Uni t e d S t a t e s be ca m e t he f o cus o f
t he d e ba t e .2
No w
t he
que s t i o n
i s whe t he r ba la nce o f
po we r po li t i cs
i s
e m e r g-
i ng
i n a ne w a nd s ubt le r
gui s e .
It wa s a m i s t a ke t o
e xpe ct
"ha r d
ba la nci ng"
t o che ck t he
po we r
o f t he i nt e r -
na t i o na l
s ys t e m 's s t r o nge s t
s t a t e ,
a
gr o wi ng
num be r o f
a na lys t s
m a i nt a i n,
be ca us e ,
und e r
uni po la r i t y, co unt e r va i li ng po we r d yna m i cs
f i r s t
e m e r ge
m o r e
s ubt ly
i n t he f o r m o f "s o f t
ba la nci ng,"
a s i t i s
t ypi ca lly ca lle d .3
T .V. Pa ul
pr o -
S t e phe n G.
Br o o ks i s As s i s t a nt
Pr o f e s s o r
a nd Wi lli a m C.
Wo hlf o r t h
i s
Pr o f e s s o r
i n t he
De pa r t m e nt o f
Go v-
e r nm e nt a t Da r t m o ut h
Co lle ge . T he y
a r e
cur r e nt ly wr i t i ng
a bo o k o n t he
cha lle nge o f
U.S .
pr i m a cy.
T he a ut ho r s
a ckno wle d ge
wi t h t ha nks co m m e nt s f r o m
Je r e m y
Pr e s s m a n a nd
Be nja m i n
Va le nt i no
a s we ll a s t he
he lpf ul
cr i t i ca l f e e d ba ck
t he y
r e ce i ve d f r o m
pa r t i ci pa nt s
a t
pr e s e nt a t i o ns gi ve n
a t t he
Jo hn
S lo a n
Di cke y
Ce nt e r f o r Int e r na t i o na l
Und e r s t a nd i ng;
t he
Jo hn
M. Oli n Ce nt e r a t H a r va r d
Uni ve r s i t y;
a nd t he
Chr i s t o phe r
H . Br o wne Ce nt e r f o r Int e r na t i o na l Po li t i cs a t t he
Uni ve r s i t y
o f
Pe nns ylva ni a ;
a s we ll a s f r o m
pa r t i ci pa nt s
a t t he 2004 a nnua l
m e e t i ng
o f t he Am e r i ca n Po li t i ca l
S ci e nce As s o ci a t i o n a nd t he 2005 a nnua l co nve nt i o n o f t he Int e r na t i o na l S t ud i e s As s o ci a t i o n.
1.
S e e ,
f o r
e xa m ple , Jo hn J. Me a r s he i m e r ,
"Ba ck t o t he Fut ur e :
Ins t a bi li t y
i n
Eur o pe
a f t e r t he Co ld
Wa r ,"
Int e r na t i o na l
S e cur i t y,
Vo l.
15,
No . 1
(S um m e r 1990),
pp.
5-56;
a nd
Chr i s t o phe r La yne ,
"T he
Uni po la r
Illus i o n:
Why
Ne w Gr e a t Po we r s Wi ll
Ri s e ,"
S e cur i t y,
Vo l.
17,
No . 4
(S pr i ng
1993),
pp.
5-51.
2. G.
Jo hn Ike nbe r r y,
"Ins t i t ut i o ns ,
S t r a t e gi c
Re s t r a i nt ,
a nd t he Pe r s i s t e nce o f t he Am e r i ca n Po s t -
wa r
Or d e r ,"
S e cur i t y,
Vo l.
23,
No . 3 (Wi nt e r 1998/99),
pp.
43-78;
Cha r le s A.
Kupcha n,
"Af t e r Pa x Am e r i ca na :
Be ni gn
Po we r ,
Re gi o na l Int e gr a t i o n,
a nd t he S o ur ce s o f a S t a ble
Mult i po la r i t y,"
S e cur i t y,
Vo l.
23,
No . 2 (Fa ll 1998),
pp.
40-79;
Mi cha e l
Ma s t a nd uno ,
"Pr e s e r vi ng
t he
Uni po la r
Mo m e nt : Re a li s t T he o r i e s a nd U.S . Gr a nd
S t r a t e gy
a f t e r t he Co ld
Wa r ,"
S e cur i t y,
Vo l.
21,
No . 4
(S pr i ng
1997),
pp.
49-88;
Wi lli a m C.
Wo hlf o r t h,
"T he
S t a bi li t y
o f a
Uni po la r
Wo r ld ,"
S e cur i t y,
Vo l.
24,
No .
1 (S um m e r 1999),
pp.
5-41;
S t e phe n
G.
Br o o ks a nd Wi lli a m C.
Wo hlf o r t h,
"Am e r i ca n
Pr i m a cy
i n
Pe r s pe ct i ve ," Fo r e i gn Af f a i r s ,
Vo l.
81,
No .
4
(July/Augus t
2002),
pp.
20-33;
Et ha n B.
Ka ps t e i n,
a nd Mi cha e l
Ma s t a nd uno , e d s .,
Uni po la r
Po li -
t i cs : Re a li s m a nd S t a t e
S t r a t e gi e s a f t e r
t he Co ld Wa r
(Ne w Yo r k: Co lum bi a
Uni ve r s i t y
Pr e s s , 1999);
a nd
G.
Jo hn Ike nbe r r y,
e d .,
Am e r i ca Unr i va le d : T he Fut ur e
o f
t he Ba la nce
o f
Po we r
(It ha ca ,
N.Y.: Co r ne ll
Uni ve r s i t y
Pr e s s , 2002).
3. T he be s t t r e a t m e nt s o f t he
ge ne r a l s o f t -ba la nci ng a r gum e nt
a r e Ro be r t A.
Pa pe ,
"S o f t
Ba la nci ng:
H o w S t a t e s Pur s ue
S e cur i t y
i n a
Uni po la r
Wo r ld ,"
a nnua l
m e e t i ng
o f t he Am e r i ca n Po li t i ca l S ci -
e nce
As s o ci a t i o n,
Chi ca go ,
Illi no i s ,
S e pt e m be r
2-5, 2004;
S t e phe n
M.
Wa lt ,
"Ke e pi ng
t he Wo r ld
'Of f
Ba la nce ,"'
i n
Ike nbe r r y,
Am e r i ca
Unr i va le d ; T .V. Pa ul,
"T he
End ur i ng
Axi o m s o f Ba la nce o f
Po we r
T he o r y,"
i n
Pa ul, Ja m e s J. Wi r t z,
a nd Mi che l
Fo r t m a nn, e d s .,
Ba la nce
o f
Po we r Re vi s i t e d : T he -
o r y
a nd Pr a ct i ce i n t he
T we nt y-f i r s t Ce nt ur y
(S t a nf o r d ,
Ca li f .: S t a nf o r d
Uni ve r s i t y
Pr e s s , 2004);
a nd
S e cur i t y,
Vo l.
30,
No . 1
(S um m e r 2005),
pp.
72-108
?
2005
by
t he Pr e s i d e nt a nd Fe llo ws o f H a r va r d
Co lle ge
a nd t he Ma s s a chus e t t s Ins t i t ut e o f
T e chno lo gy.
72
H a r d T i m e s
f o r S o f t Ba la nci ng
173
vi d e s a co nci s e d e f i ni t i o n o f t hi s ba s i c
co nce pt :
"S o f t
ba la nci ng
i nvo lve s t a ci t
ba la nci ng
s ho r t o f f o r m a l a lli a nce s . It o ccur s whe n s t a t e s
ge ne r a lly d e ve lo p
e n-
t e nt e s o r li m i t e d
s e cur i t y und e r s t a nd i ngs
wi t h o ne a no t he r t o ba la nce a
po t e n-
t i a lly t hr e a t e ni ng
s t a t e o r a
r i s i ng po we r .
S o f t
ba la nci ng
i s o f t e n ba s e d o n a
li m i t e d a r m s
bui ld up,
a d ho c
co o pe r a t i ve
e xe r ci s e s ,
o r co lla bo r a t i o n i n r e -
gi o na l
o r i nt e r na t i o na l
i ns t i t ut i o ns ;
t he s e
po li ci e s m a y
be co nve r t e d t o
o pe n,
ha r d -ba la nci ng s t r a t e gi e s
i f a nd whe n
s e cur i t y co m pe t i t i o n
be co m e s i nt e ns e
a nd t he
po we r f ul
s t a t e be co m e s
t hr e a t e ni ng."4
Fo r t he
m a ny a na lys t s
who us e t he
co nce pt ,
s o f t
ba la nci ng
i s a
wa r ni ng s i gn
t ha t t he
a ge -o ld co unt e r ba la nci ng
co ns t r a i nt i s la t e nt but
s ubt ly o pe r a t i ve .
Fo r
t he m ,
s o f t
ba la nci ng
i s no t
jus t i s s ue -s pe ci f i c d i plo m a t i c wr a ngli ng
but a
r e f le ct i o n o f t he
und e r lyi ng s ys t e m i c
co nce nt r a t i o n o f
po we r
i n t he Uni t e d
S t a t e s . As
Jo s e f Jo f f e put
i t
co nce r ni ng
t he
po li ci e s
o f
Fr a nce ,
Ge r m a ny,
a nd
Rus s i a o n
Ir a q,
"Wha t wa s t he i r
pur po s e ?
T o s a ve S a d d a m H us s e i n?
No ,
o f
co ur s e no t . It wa s t o co nt a i n a nd co ns t r a i n Am e r i ca n
po we r ,
no w li be r a t e d
f r o m t he
r o pe s
o f
bi po la r i t y."'
As a
s t a ple
o f
pund i t r y
bo t h i n t he Uni t e d S t a t e s a nd
a br o a d ,
t he ba la nce o f
po we r m e t a pho r
ha s co nt r i but e d
s i gni f i ca nt ly
t o t he
gr o wi ng po pula r i t y
o f t he
s o f t -ba la nci ng a r gum e nt
i n
s cho la r ly
ci r cle s . Co m m e nt a t o r s ha i l e a ch ne w co -
o r d i na t i o n e f f o r t
a m o ng m a jo r po we r s
t ha t e xclud e s t he Uni t e d S t a t e s a s a n
e po ch-m a ki ng
"a xi s ."
Ind e e d ,
t he le a d e r s o f o t he r
m a jo r po we r s -no t a bly
t he
Jo s e f Jo f f e , "De f yi ng H i s t o r y
a nd
T he o r y:
T he Uni t e d S t a t e s a s t he 'La s t
S upe r po we r ,"'
i n
Ike nbe r r y,
Am e r i ca Unr i va le d . T he
s o f t -ba la nci ng a r gum e nt i ni t i a lly
r o s e t o
pr o m i ne nce
i n t he la t e
1990s ,
a s
a na lys t s
s uch a s
S t e phe n
M. Wa lt a nd
Jo s e f Jo f f e s o ught
t o a r t i cula t e a d i s t i nct i o n be -
t we e n t r a d i t i o na l
m i li t a r y ba la nci ng
a nd s ubt le r f o r m s o f
ba la nci ng.
S e e
Wa lt ,
"Ke e pi ng
t he Wo r ld
'Of f
Ba la nce "';
a nd
Jo f f e "De f yi ng H i s t o r y
a nd
T he o r y."
Mo r e
r e ce nt ly,
t he t e r m "s o f t
ba la nci ng"
ha s d e s cr i be d
ba la nci ng
e f f o r t s t ha t f a ll s ho r t o f
m i li t a r y ba la nci ng.
S e e ,
f o r
e xa m ple ,
Pa ul,
"T he
End ur i ng
Axi o m s o f Ba la nce o f Po we r
T he o r y"; Pa pe ,
"S o f t
Ba la nci ng";
Yue n
Fo o ng Kho ng,
"Co pi ng
wi t h
S t r a t e gi c Unce r t a i nt y:
T he Ro le o f Ins t i t ut i o ns a nd S o f t
Ba la nci ng
i n S o ut he a s t
As i a 's Po s t -Co ld Wa r
S t r a t e gy,"
i n Alle n
Ca r ls o n,
Pe t e r
J. Ka t ze ns t e i n,
a nd
J.J. S uh, e d s .,
Re t hi nki ng
S e cur i t y
i n Ea s t As i a :
Id e nt i t y,
Po we r ,
a nd
Ef f i ci e ncy
(S t a nf o r d ,
Ca li f .: S t a nf o r d
Uni ve r s i t y
Pr e s s ,
2004);
Er i k
Vo e t e n,
"Re s i s t i ng
t he
Lo ne ly S upe r po we r : Re s po ns e s
o f S t a t e s i n t he Uni t e d Na t i o ns
t o U.S .
Do m i na nce ," Jo ur na l o f
Po li t i cs ,
Vo l.
66,
No . 3
(Ma y
2004),
pp.
729-754; Jo s e f Jo f f e ,
"Gulli ve r
Unbo und : Ca n Am e r i ca Rule t he Wo r ld ?" T we nt i e t h Annua l
Jo hn
Bo ynt ho n
Le ct ur e ,
Ce nt r e o f In-
d e pe nd e nt
S t ud i e s ,
S t .
Le o na r d s ,
Ne w S o ut h
Wa le s ,
Augus t
5, 2003;
S t e phe n
M.
Wa lt ,
"Ca n t he
Uni t e d S t a t e s Be Ba la nce d ? If
S o ,
H o w?" a nnua l
m e e t i ng
o f t he Am e r i ca n Po li t i ca l S ci e nce As s o ci -
a t i o n,
Chi ca go ,
Illi no i s ,
S e pt e m be r
2-5, 2004;
Chr i s t o phe r La yne ,
"Am e r i ca a s
Eur o pe a n H e ge m o -
n,"
Na t i o na l
Int e r e s t ,
No . 72 (S um m e r 2003),
pp.
17-30;
Br a d le y
A.
T ha ye r ,
"T he Pa x Am e r i ca na a nd
t he Mi d d le Ea s t : U.S . Gr a nd
S t r a t e gi c
Int e r e s t s i n t he
Re gi o n
a f t e r
S e pt e m be r
11,"
Mi d e a s t
S e cur i t y
a nd
Po li cy
S t ud i e s No . 56 (Ra m a t Ga n,
Is r a e l:
Be gi n-S a d a t
Ce nt e r f o r
S t r a t e gi c
S t ud i e s ,
Ba r -Ila n
Uni ve r s i t y,
De ce m be r
2003);
a nd Rut h W. Gr a nt a nd Ro be r t
O.
Ke o ha ne ,
"Acco unt a bi li t y
a nd
Abus e s o f Po we r i n Wo r ld
Po li t i cs ,"
Duke
Uni ve r s i t y,
Ma r ch 2004. T he m o s t a m bi t i o us t he o r e t i ca l
e f f o r t t o
f ully d e ve lo p
t he
s o f t -ba la nci ng co nce pt
i s
Pa pe ,
"S o f t
Ba la nci ng."
4.
Pa ul,
"T he
End ur i ng
Axi o m s o f Ba la nce o f Po we r
T he o r y," p.
3.
5.
Jo f f e ,
"Gulli ve r Unbo und ."
S e cur i t y
30:1 74
pr e s i d e nt s
o f
Fr a nce , Rus s i a ,
a nd Chi na -s o m e t i m e s i nvo ke t he
ba la nci ng
pr o po s i t i o n
t he m s e lve s ,
a r gui ng
t ha t t he i r
po li ci e s
a r e i nt e nd e d t o f o s t e r t he
r e t ur n o f a
m ult i po la r
wo r ld .
T hi s co nf lue nce o f t he o r e t i ca l
e xpe ct a t i o ns , jo ur na li s t i c co m m e nt a r y,
a nd
po -
li t i ca l r he t o r i c le nd s i ni t i a l
pla us i bi li t y
t o t he
s o f t -ba la nci ng pr o po s i t i o n
a nd
pa r t ly e xpla i ns
i t s cur r e nt
po pula r i t y
a s a n
a r gum e nt
f o r r e s t r a i nt i n U.S . f o r -
e i gn po li cy.
T he
gr o wi ng po pula r i t y
o f t he
r a i s e s o ne
o f t he m o s t
i m po r t a nt que s t i o ns
i n i nt e r na t i o na l r e la t i o ns
t o d a y:
Ar e r e ce nt
s t a t e a ct i o ns t ha t ha ve t he e f f e ct o f
co ns t r a i ni ng
U.S .
f o r e i gn po li cy
a n o ut -
gr o wt h
o f t he
s ys t e m i c ba la nci ng i m pe r a t i ve ?
If t he
i s
r i ght ,
t he n t he i nt e r na t i o na l
s ys t e m 's
cur r e nt
e qui li br i um
co uld s hi f t t o wa r d a
r a pi d
e s ca la t i o n o f co ns t r a i nt s o n t he Uni t e d S t a t e s . As
S t e phe n
Wa lt
wa r ns ,
"S ucce s s f ul s o f t
ba la nci ng t o d a y m a y la y
t he f o und a t i o ns f o r m o r e
s i gni f i ca nt
s hi f t s t o m o r r o w. If o t he r s t a t e s a r e a ble t o co o r d i na t e t he i r
po li ci e s
s o a s t o i m -
po s e
a d d i t i o na l co s t s o n t he Uni t e d S t a t e s o r o bt a i n a d d i t i o na l be ne f i t s f o r
t he m s e lve s ,
t he n Am e r i ca 's d o m i na nt
po s i t i o n
co uld be e r o d e d a nd i t s
a bi li t y
t o
i m po s e
i t s wi ll o n o t he r s wo uld
d e cli ne ."6
S o
f a r ,
t he
ha s
o nly
be e n a s s e r t e d . In t hi s
a r t i cle ,
we
co nd uct t he f i r s t
r i go r o us
e va lua t i o n o f s o f t
ba la nci ng by pe r f o r m i ng
f o ur
t a s ks .
Fi r s t ,
we s ho w ho w t he
hi gh
s t a ke s i nvo lve d i n t hi s d e ba t e a r e
clo s e ly
li nke d t o i t s
und e r pi nni ngs
i n ba la nce o f
po we r t he o r y.
We d e m o ns t r a t e t he
co r e
co nce pt ua l co m po ne nt s
t ha t a
t he o r y
o f s o f t
ba la nci ng
m us t ha ve t o
yi e ld
t he
t ha t i s s o o f t e n
a ppli e d
t o t he Uni t e d S t a t e s
t o d a y.
S e co nd ,
we a d d r e s s t he
pr i nci pa l a na lyt i ca l
f la w i n t he
a r gum e nt s
o f s o f t -
ba la nci ng pr o po ne nt s :
t he i r f a i lur e t o co ns i d e r a lt e r na t i ve
e xpla na t i o ns
f o r t he
s t a t e be ha vi o r
t he y
o bs e r ve . Ot he r s t a t e s
o bvi o us ly
s o m e t i m e s t a ke a ct i o ns
t ha t m a ke i t ha r d e r f o r t he Uni t e d S t a t e s t o a d va nce i t s
f o r e i gn po li cy go a ls ,
i n-
clud i ng
i t s
m i li t a r y s e cur i t y.
Ye t
jus t
be ca us e o t he r
s t a t e s '
a ct i o ns
pe r i o d i ca lly
co ns t r a i n t he Uni t e d S t a t e s d o e s no t m e a n t ha t s o f t
ba la nci ng e xpla i ns
t he i r
be ha vi o r .
Ana lys t s '
f a i lur e t o a d d r e s s a lt e r na t i ve
e xpla na t i o ns
f o r t he co n-
s t r a i nt a ct i o ns und e r t a ke n
by
o t he r s t a t e s bi a s e s t he d i s cus s i o n i n f a vo r o f t he
s o f t -ba la nci ng a r gum e nt .
We r e m o ve t hi s bi a s
by put t i ng
f o r wa r d f o ur o bvi o us
but ne ve r t he le s s o ve r lo o ke d a lt e r na t i ve s t o s o f t
ba la nci ng:
e co no m i c
i nt e r e s t ,
r e gi o na l s e cur i t y co nce r ns , po li cy d i s put e s ,
a nd d o m e s t i c
po li t i ca l
i nce nt i ve s .
T hi r d , we r e d r e s s a n
e qua lly
cr i t i ca l we a kne s s i n t he ca s e f o r s o f t
ba la nci ng:
6.
Wa lt ,
"Ca n t he Uni t e d S t a t e s Be Ba la nce d ?"
p.
17.
H a r d
T i m e s f o r S o f t Ba la nci ng
175
t he a bs e nce o f a ca r e f ul
e m pi r i ca l a na lys i s
o f t he
phe no m e no n.
We
co m pa r e
t he
s t r e ngt h
o f s o f t
ba la nci ng
t o a lt e r na t i ve
e xpla na t i o ns
i n t he f o ur m o s t
pr o m i ne nt
ca s e s t ha t
s o f t -ba la nci ng pr o po ne nt s
ha ve
hi ghli ght e d :
Rus s i a n a s -
s i s t a nce t o Ir a ni a n nucle a r
e f f o r t s ;
Rus s i a 's
s t r a t e gi c pa r t ne r s hi ps
wi t h Ind i a
a nd
e s pe ci a lly
Chi na ;
e nha nce d
m i li t a r y
co o r d i na t i o n
a m o ng
m e m be r s o f t he
Eur o pe a n
Uni o n;
a nd
o ppo s i t i o n
t o t he U.S .-le d wa r i n
Ir a q.
In t he f o ur t h s e c-
t i o n,
we s ho w
why
i t i s cr uci a l t o
d i s t i ngui s h po li cy ba r ga i ni ng
f r o m
ba la nci ng.
We co nclud e t ha t
a lt ho ugh
s t a t e s d o
pe r i o d i ca lly
und e r t a ke a ct i o ns t ha t e nd
up co ns t r a i ni ng
t he Uni t e d
S a t e s ,
t he
d o e s no t
he lp
t o
e xpla i n
t hi s be ha vi o r . T he r e i s no
e m pi r i ca l
ba s i s f o r
co nclud i ng
t ha t U.S .
po we r ,
a nd t he
s e cur i t y
t hr e a t t ha t
po t e nt i a lly
i nhe r e s i n
i t ,
ha s i nf lue nce d r e -
ce nt co ns t r a i nt a ct i o ns und e r t a ke n
by
t he o t he r
m a jo r po we r s .
Our e xa m i na -
t i o n t he r e f o r e
pr o vi d e s
f ur t he r co nf i r m a t i o n o f t he ne e d f o r
a na lys t s
t o m o ve
be yo nd
t he f a m i li a r but
m i s le a d i ng pr e ce pt s
o f ba la nce o f
po we r t he o r y.
In-
s t e a d ,
ne w
t he o r i zi ng
i s ne e d e d t ha t i s m o r e
a ppr o pr i a t e
f o r
und e r s t a nd i ng
s e -
cur i t y
r e la t i o ns i n
t o d a y's uni po la r
e r a .
Be yo nd
t he t he o r e t i ca l
s t a ke s ,
o ur
a na lys i s
ha s
r e pe r cus s i o ns
f o r t he d e ba t e
o ve r U.S .
f o r e i gn po li cy.
Put
s i m ply,
s o f t
ba la nci ng
i s no t a
co m pe lli ng a r gu-
m e nt f o r U.S . r e s t r a i nt . T he
cha m pi o ns
o f t he
s o f t -ba la nci ng pe r s pe ct i ve
uni -
f o r m ly o ppo s e
t he r e ce nt "ne w uni la t e r a li s t " t ur n i n U.S .
f o r e i gn po li cy.7
Alt ho ugh
we
a gr e e
wi t h t he i r m a i n r e co m m e nd a t i o n-t ha t t he
ge ne r a l d i s po -
s i t i o n o f t he Uni t e d S t a t e s
o ught
t o be r e s t r a i ne d -we d o no t
a gr e e
t ha t t hi s
r e co m m e nd a t i o n ca n be d e r i ve d f r o m
a ny
va r i a nt o f ba la nce o f
po we r t he o r y.8
We f i nd no e vi d e nce t o
s uppo r t
t he
e xpe ct a t i o n
t ha t t he co o r d i na t e d a ct i o ns o f
o t he r
m a jo r po we r s
wi ll
co m pe l
t he Uni t e d S t a t e s t o be r e s t r a i ne d .
Ins t e a d ,
t he
ca s e f o r r e s t r a i nt wi ll
hi nge
o n
co nvi nci ng
U.S .
m a ke r s t ha t i t
s e r ve s t he Uni t e d
S t a t e s '
lo ng-t e r m
i nt e r e s t .
T he S t a ke s i n t he
S o f t -Ba la nci ng
De ba t e
No o ne
d i s put e s
t ha t s t a t e s s o m e t i m e s und e r t a ke a ct i o ns t ha t e i t he r
ha m pe r
t he
a bi li t y
o f t he Uni t e d S t a t e s t o f ur t he r i t s
a i m s i n t he s ho r t
7. Fo r a d i s cus s i o n o f t hi s s o -ca lle d ne w
uni la t e r a li s m ,
s e e Cha r le s
Kr a ut ha m m e r ,
"T he
Uni po la r
Mo m e nt
Re vi s i t e d ,"
Na t i o na l
Int e r e s t ,
No . 70 (Wi nt e r 2002/2003),
pp.
5-18.
8. S e e t he r e la t e d d i s cus s i o n i n Br o o ks a nd
Wo hlf o r t h,
"Am e r i ca n
Pr i m a cy
i n
Pe r s pe ct i ve ,"
pp.
31-33.
S e cur i t y
30:1
176
t e r m o r a r e
co nt r a r y
t o i t s
lo ng-t e r m pr e f e r e nce s .
T he Uni t e d S t a t e s i s no t o m -
ni po t e nt ,
a nd o t he r
s t a t e s '
a ct i o ns ha ve
cle a r ly co m pli ca t e d Wa s hi ngt o n's
a bi l-
i t y
t o
pur s ue
i t s
i nt e r e s t s
e f f e ct i ve ly.
T he
cha lle nge
i s i n
e xpla i ni ng
a nd
a s s e s s i ng
t he
ge ne r a l s i gni f i ca nce
o f t hi s be ha vi o r . Af t e r
a ll,
t he
Uni t e d S t a t e s ha s
lo ng
ha d t o co nt e nd wi t h a ct i o ns t ha t r a n co unt e r t o i t s o b-
je ct i ve s ,
no t
jus t
f r o m i t s
co m pe t i t o r s
but f r o m i t s
m a jo r
a lli e s a s we ll. Co ns i d -
e r ,
f o r
e xa m ple ,
wha t
ha ppe ne d
i n t he d e ca d e t ha t f o llo we d t he Cuba n m i s s i le
cr i s i s i n 1962: Fr a nce d e f e ct e d f r o m NAT O's
m i li t a r y
co m m a nd ;
t he Uni t e d
S t a t e s wa s una ble t o o bt a i n a s s i s t a nce f r o m i t s
m a jo r Eur o pe a n
a lli e s i n co n-
d uct i ng
t he Vi e t na m
Wa r ;
Ge r m a ny, Ja pa n,
a nd o t he r co unt r i e s
s t ubbo r nly
r e -
s i s t e d a d e va lua t i o n o f t he i r
cur r e nci e s ;
a nd Fr a nce
s o ught
t o und e r m i ne t he
Br e t t o n Wo o d s
s ys t e m by pur cha s i ng la r ge
a m o unt s o f
go ld
f r o m t he U.S .
T r e a s ur y.
T he s e a ct i o ns a ll t o o k
pla ce
i n t he s ha d o w o f t he Co ld
Wa r ,
whi ch
pr o vi d e d
a r e f e r e nce
po i nt
f o r
jud gi ng
t he i r
s i gni f i ca nce .
In t he
bi po la r
s t a nd -
o f f ,
t he Uni t e d S t a t e s a nd t he S o vi e t Uni o n
pr o vi d e d
t he o t he r wi t h a
ya r d s t i ck
f o r
m e a s ur i ng
t he
i m pli ca t i o ns
a nd
s i gni f i ca nce
o f
po li cy cha nge s by
t hi r d
s t a t e s . As a
r e s ult ,
i t wa s
a ppa r e nt
t ha t
a lt ho ugh
t he Uni t e d S t a t e s a nd i t s m a -
jo r
a lli e s ha d a
r e la t i o ns hi p
t ha t wa s no t
a lwa ys
ha r m o ni o us ,
t he y
we r e f a r
f r o m
be i ng ge o po li t i ca l
r i va ls .
In
t o d a y's uni po la r s ys t e m ,
i n
co nt r a s t ,
no
co m pa r a ble
r e f e r e nce
po i nt
e x-
i s t s . Whe n
a ny
s t a t e
be gi ns
t o und e r t a ke a ct i o ns t ha t a r e
co nt r a r y
t o U.S . i nt e r -
e s t s ,
i t i s ha r d t o e s t i m a t e
e xa ct ly
ho w f a r i t ha s t r a ve le d t o wa r d
be co m i ng
a
ge o po li t i ca l
r i va l. In
t ur n,
no i d e nt i f i a ble
ya r d s t i ck
e xi s t s f o r
a s s e s s i ng
t he
ne g-
a t i ve
co ns e que nce s
o f va r i o us s t a t e
po li ci e s .
T he
i s
i nf lue nt i a l
pr e ci s e ly
be ca us e i t
pr o vi d e s
a f a m i li a r f r a m e wo r k f o r
m a ki ng
s uch
a s s e s s m e nt s . In a
uni po la r s ys t e m ,
t he
a r gum e nt
i s ,
a ct i o ns t ha t
m a y a ppe a r
s i m i la r t o i nt e r -a lli e d
s qua bbli ng
o f t he
bi po la r
e r a a r e
a ct ua lly e a r ly wa r ni ng
s i gns
o f a
co m i ng
e r a i n whi ch t he Uni t e d S t a t e s wi ll f a ce
i ncr e a s i ng,
a nd i n-
cr e a s i ngly co ns e que nt i a l, o ppo s i t i o n d e r i vi ng
no t
jus t
f r o m t he
s pe ci f i c po li ci e s
i t
m a y a d o pt
but a ls o f r o m t he
ve r y
f a ct o f i t s
po we r .
T he li nk t o ba la nce o f
po we r t he o r y
i s wha t
gi ve s
t he
s o f t -ba la nci ng a r gu-
m e nt t hi s d r a m a t i c
punch.
T a ke
a wa y
t ha t
li nk,
a nd s o f t
ba la nci ng co lla ps e s
i nt o a
po r t e nt o us -s o und i ng
t e r m t o d e s cr i be co nve nt i o na l
po li cy d i s put e s
a nd
d i plo m a t i c ba r ga i ni ng.
It f o llo ws t ha t t he
m us t s ha r e
s o m e co r e f e a t ur e s wi t h ba la nce o f
po we r t he o r y.
T he
t he o r y po s i t s
t ha t be -
ca us e s t a t e s i n
a na r chy
ha ve a n i nt e r e s t i n
m a xi m i zi ng
t he i r
lo ng-t e r m
o d d s o f
s ur vi va l
(s e cur i t y), t he y
wi ll che ck
d a nge r o us
co nce nt r a t i o ns o f
po we r
(he -
ge m o ny) by bui ld i ng up
t he i r o wn
ca pa bi li t i e s
(i nt e r na l
ba la nci ng)
o r
by a g-
H a r d T i m e s
77
gr e ga t i ng
t he i r
ca pa bi li t i e s
wi t h o t he r s t a t e s i n a lli a nce s
(e xt e r na l
ba la nci ng).
T he
t he o r y
s o und s
s i m ple ,
but i t i s
f r a ught
wi t h
a m bi gui t y
a nd r e m a i ns t he
s ubje ct
o f
o ngo i ng s cho la r ly
d i s s e ns i o n.9
Mo r e o ve r ,
m a ny
cla s s i ca l a nd m o d -
e r n f o r m ula t i o ns o f t he
t he o r y
d o no t
a pply
t o t he Uni t e d S t a t e s
t o d a y,
a nd s o
t he y
ca nno t s e r ve a s t he
co nce pt ua l
ba s i s f o r s o f t
ba la nci ng.10
But
d e s pi t e
t he
num e r o us s e t ba cks i t ha s r e ce i ve d i n t he wo r ld o f a ca d e m i c
r e s e a r ch,
t he ba s i c
pr o po s i t i o n
t ha t s t a t e
s ys t e m s
t e nd t o wa r d ba la nce d
po we r
s t i ll ha s a
s t r o ng
cla i m o n
m a ny a na lys t s ' t hi nki ng.
T wo
po pula r
f o r m ula t i o ns o f t he
t he o r y
cle a r ly
d o
yi e ld i m pli ca t i o ns
f o r t he Uni t e d S t a t e s
t o d a y:
Ke nne t h Wa lt z's
s t r uct ur a l va r i a nt a nd
S t e phe n
Wa lt 's ba la nce o f t hr e a t
ve r s i o n."1
Wa lt z's
t he o r y
d e f i ne s
he ge m o ny
a s "unr i va le d
po we r "
a nd
pr e d i ct s
a
ge n-
e r a l
t e nd e ncy
t o wa r d ba la nce .
Acco r d i ng
t o hi s
t he o r y,
U.S .
he ge m o ny
i s s o e x-
t r e m e t ha t r o bus t
pr e d i ct i o ns
o f
ba la nci ng e m e r ge .12
Wa lt m o d i f i e d t he
t he o r y,
no t a bly by i nclud i ng pe r ce pt i o ns
o f i nt e nt i o ns a s a f a ct o r t ha t i nf lue nce s ba l-
a nci ng. Acco r d i ng
t o
Wa lt ,
t he
wi lli ngne s s
o f o t he r s t a t e s t o be a r t he
hi gh
co s t s
o f
ba la nci ng
t he Uni t e d S t a t e s
d e pe nd s
no t
o nly
o n i t s
po we r
but a ls o o n i t s i n-
t e nt i o ns ,
a s r e ve a le d t o o t he r s t a t e s
by
i t s
be ha vi o r .'3
9. Fo r a
s a m pli ng
o f t hi s
d i s cus s i o n,
s e e
Jo hn
A.
Va s que z
a nd
Co li n Elm a n, e d s .,
Re a li s m a nd t he
Ba la nci ng o f
Po we r : A Ne w De ba t e (S a d d le Ri ve r , N.J.:
Pr e nt i ce
H a ll, 2003).
10. S e e
Ja ck Le vy,
"Wha t Do Gr e a t Po we r s Ba la nce
Aga i ns t
a nd Whe n?" i n
Pa ul, Wi r t z,
a nd
Fo r t m a nn,
Ba la nce
o f
Po we r Re vi s i t e d .
Le vy a r gue s
t ha t "f e w ba la nce o f
po we r
t he o r i s t s ,
a t le a s t i n
t he t r a d i t i o n o f We s t e r n i nt e r na t i o na l
t he o r y
t ha t i nclud e s
Mo r ge nt ha u,
Cla ud e , Guli ck,
a nd
De hi o ,
wo uld
pr e d i ct ba la nci ng a ga i ns t
t he Uni t e d S t a t e s "
t o d a y.
Ibi d .,
p.
30. A
pr o m i ne nt
m o d e r n
e xa m ple
i s
Jo hn J.
Me a r s he i m e r 's o f f e ns i ve r e a li s t
t he o r y,
whi ch
e nco m pa s s e s
a ve r s i o n o f ba la nce
o f
po we r t he o r y
t ha t
a ppli e s o nly
t o
co nt i guo us gr e a t po we r s
a nd no t t o o f f s ho r e
po we r s
s uch a s
t he Uni t e d S t a t e s .
Ind e e d ,
Me a r s he i m e r 's
t he o r y yi e ld s
a n
e xpla na t i o n
f o r t he
r e ce nt ,
m o r e i nd e -
pe nd e nt
be ha vi o r o f s o m e U.S . a lli e s t ha t i s t he
o ppo s i t e
o f s o f t
ba la nci ng:
a
r e s po ns e
t o t he f e a r o f
t he r e t r a ct i o n r a t he r t ha n t he
e xpa ns i o n
o f U.S .
po we r .
"Am e r i ca 's Co ld Wa r a lli e s ha ve s t a r t e d t o
a ct le s s li ke
d e pe nd e nt s
o f t he Uni t e d S t a t e s a nd m o r e li ke
s o ve r e i gn
s t a t e s ,"
he
wr i t e s ,
"be ca us e
t he y
f e a r t ha t
[Wa s hi ngt o n]
. ..
m i ght pr o ve
t o be unr e li a ble i n a f ut ur e cr i s i s ."
Me a r s he i m e r ,
T he
T r a ge d y o f
Gr e a t Po we r Po li t i cs (Ne w Yo r k: W.W.
No r t o n, 2001),
p.
391.
11. Ke nne t h N.
Wa lt z,
T he o r y o f
Int e r na t i o na l Po li t i cs
(Re a d i ng,
Ma s s .:
Ad d i s o n-We s le y,
1979);
a nd
S t e phe n
M.
Wa lt ,
T he
Or i gi ns o f
Alli a nce s
(It ha ca ,
N.Y.: Co r ne ll
Uni ve r s i t y
Pr e s s , 1987).
12. T o be
s ur e ,
Wa lt z a nd s o m e o f hi s f o llo we r s ha ve cla i m e d t ha t t he i r
t he o r y e xpla i ns
ba la nce d
o ut co m e s wi t ho ut
ne ce s s a r i ly pr e d i ct i ng ba la nci ng s t r a t e gi e s by
s t a t e s . S e e Ke nne t h N.
Wa lt z,
"In-
t e r na t i o na l Po li t i cs Is No t
Fo r e i gn Po li cy," S e cur i t y
S t ud i e s ,
Vo l.
6,
No .
1 (Aut um n 1996),
pp.
54-57.
T hi s
a r gum e nt
m a ke s t he
t he o r y e xce e d i ngly ge ne r a l, e xt r e m e ly
d i f f i cult t o
f a ls i f y
a nd
t e s t ,
a nd
i m po s s i ble
t o
a pply
t o
a ny s pe ci f i c
ca s e . Mo r e
i m po r t a nt , a cce pt i ng
t he co nt e nt i o n t ha t ba la nce o f
po we r t he o r y
d o e s no t
pr e d i ct ba la nci ng
wo uld s e ve r i t f r o m t he
s o f t -ba la nci ng a r gum e nt ,
whi ch
i s
e xpli ci t ly
a bo ut s t a t e
s t r a t e gi e s .
We ca n s e t t hi s cla i m
a s i d e , ho we ve r ,
be ca us e Wa lt z ha s s t a t e d
t ha t hi s
t he o r y pr e d i ct s ba la nci ng a ga i ns t
U.S .
uni po la r i t y.
H e nce ,
he
e xpe ct s
t ha t ca us a l m e cha -
ni s m t o be i n
pla y t o d a y,
ho we ve r
s ubt ly.
S e e Ke nne t h N.
Wa lt z,
"S t r uct ur a l Re a li s m a f t e r t he Co ld
Wa r ,"
S e cur i t y,
Vo l.
25,
No .
1 (S um m e r 2000),
pp.
5-41;
a nd Ke nne t h N.
Wa lt z,
"Eva lu-
a t i ng
T he o r i e s ,"
Am e r i ca n Po li t i ca l S ci e nce
Re vi e w,
Vo l.
91,
No . 4
(De ce m be r 1997),
pp.
913-917.
13.
Wa lt ,
"Ke e pi ng
t he Wo r ld 'Of f Ba la nce ."'
S e cur i t y
30:1
178
T he
co m bi ne s e le m e nt s o f Wa lt z's s t r uct ur a l ba l-
a nce o f
po we r t he o r y
a nd
Wa lt 's
ba la nce o f t hr e a t
t he o r y.
In
ke e pi ng
wi t h t he
i nt e lle ct ua l
hi s t o r y
o f ba la nce o f
po we r t he o r y,
bo t h f o r m ula t i o ns a r e
s ys t e m i c
whe n
a ppli e d
t o t he Uni t e d
S t a t e s .14
Fo r
e a ch,
ba la nci ng
i s a ct i o n t a ke n t o
che ck a
po t e nt i a l he ge m o n.
It r e f le ct s
s ys t e m i c
i nce nt i ve s t o r e ba la nce
po we r ,
r a t he r t ha n t he
s pe ci f i cs
o f a
gi ve n
i s s ue . It i s
a ct i o n, m o r e o ve r ,
t ha t wo uld no t
ha ve be e n t a ke n i n t he a bs e nce o f t he
pr o s pe ct
o f a
d a nge r o us
po we r
i n t he
s ys t e m .
T he
ke y po i nt
i s t ha t ba la nce o f
po we r t he o r y
i s no t r e le -
va nt t o s t a t e be ha vi o r unr e la t e d t o
s ys t e m i c
co nce nt r a t i o ns o f
po we r ,
whi ch i s
a r gua bly
m uch o f wha t
go e s
o n i n i nt e r na t i o na l
po li t i cs .
Fo r t he
t o ha ve t he
e xpla na t o r y
a nd
pr e d i ct i ve
punch
i t s
pr o po ne nt s
a d ve r t i s e ,
i t m us t be co nne ct e d t o t he s e s a m e
und e r lyi ng
ca us a l m e cha ni s m s . S o f t
ba la nci ng
m us t be li nke d
ca us a lly
t o t he
s ys t e m i c
po we r
i n t he Uni t e d S t a t e s . U.S . be ha vi o r i s s o
i m po r t a nt o nly
be ca us e t he Uni t e d S t a t e s i s s o
po we r f ul.
S o f t
ba la nci ng
i s a ct i o n t ha t wo uld
no t be t a ke n i f t he Uni t e d S t a t e s we r e no t s o
po we r f ul;
i t i s no t
m e r e ly
a
r e f le ct i o n o f a
s pe ci f i c po li cy d i s put e
wi t h
Wa s hi ngt o n.
In
a d d i t i o n,
s o f t
ba la nci ng
m us t r e f le ct t he
i m pe r a t i ve
o f
s e cur i t y s e e ki ng
und e r
a na r chy, s o m e t hi ng
a d vo ca t e s o f t he
co nce pt
a r e
ke e nly
a wa r e
o f ."s
S o f t -
ba la nci ng pr o po ne nt s
r a i s e t he co nce r n t ha t s t a t e s wi ll
i ncr e a s i ngly
s e e t he
po we r
i n t he Uni t e d S t a t e s a s a d i r e ct
s e cur i t y
t hr e a t ,
e s pe -
ci a lly
i f i t co m e s t o be s e e n a s
ha vi ng m a li gn
i nt e nt i o ns . As Wa lt
put s
i t ,
"If t he
Uni t e d S t a t e s a ct s i n
wa ys
t ha t f ue l
glo ba l
co nce r ns a bo ut U.S .
po we r -a nd
i n
pa r t i cula r ,
t he f e a r t ha t i t wi ll be us e d i n
wa ys
t ha t ha r m t he i nt e r e s t s o f
m a ny
o t he r s -t he n t he num be r o f
po t e nt i a l
's o f t ba la nce r s ' wi ll
gr o w."16 Ba la nci ng
ha s be e n m ut e d t o t hi s
po i nt ,
t he
a r gum e nt go e s ,
f o r t wo m a i n r e a s o ns : t he
S o vi e t Uni o n's s ud d e n d e m i s e le f t t he Uni t e d S t a t e s i n s uch a
co m m a nd i ng
po s i t i o n
t ha t
put t i ng t o ge t he r
a
ba la nci ng
co a li t i o n i s
e s pe ci a lly
ha r d ;
a nd t he
Uni t e d S t a t e s ha d
a cqui r e d
a
r e put a t i o n
f o r
be ni gn
i nt e nt i o ns t ha t i s
o nly
no w
be i ng
und e r m i ne d
by
a ct i o ns s uch a s t he wa r i n
Ir a q.
T he
pr e d i ct i o n
i s t ha t a s
o t he r s t a t e s
ga i n
r e la t i ve
ca pa bi li t i e s
a nd
upd a t e
t he i r a s s e s s m e nt s o f t he U.S .
t hr e a t ,
t he y
wi ll
be gi n
t o t a ke
s o f t -ba la nci ng
m e a s ur e s . Und e r t he
lo gi c
o f s o f t
ba la nci ng,
t he s e m e a s ur e s m us t
pla us i bly
be li nke d t o
e nha nci ng
t he s e s t a t e s '
14. On t he i nt e lle ct ua l
hi s t o r y
o f ba la nce o f
po we r t he o r y,
s e e Ma r t i n
Wi ght ,
Po we r Po li t i cs
(Le i ce s t e r ,
U.K.: Le i ce s t e r
Uni ve r s i t y
Pr e s s , 1978);
a nd H e r be r t
But t e r f i e ld ,
"Ba la nce o f
Po we r ,"
i n
Phi li p
P.
Wi e ne r , e d .,
Di ct i o na r y o f
t he
H i s t o r y o f
Id e a s (Ne w Yo r k:
S cr i bne r 's , 1968).
15. Fo r a n
a r gum e nt s t r e s s i ng
t hi s
po i nt ,
s e e
Pa pe ,
"S o f t
Ba la nci ng."
16.
Wa lt ,
p.
18.
H a r d T i m e s
179
s e cur i t y
vi s -a -vi s
t he U.S . t hr e a t . In
und e r t a ki ng
t he s e
m e a s ur e s ,
s t a t e s m us t
r a t i o na lly e xpe ct
t o co ns t r a i n t he t hr e a t
po s e d by
t he Uni t e d S t a t e s a nd s o be
m o r e s e cur e a s a r e s ult . Act i o ns t ha t a r e
e xpe ct e d o nly
t o f r us t r a t e U.S .
po li ci e s
wi t ho ut
a f f e ct i ng
t he r e a l
ca pa bi li t y
o f t he Uni t e d S t a t e s t o t hr e a t e n t he s e cu-
r i t y
o f o t he r
m a jo r po we r s
f a ll o ut s i d e t he
lo gi c
o f s o f t
ba la nci ng.
Alt e r na t i ve
Expla na t i o ns
H o w d o e s o ne
i d e nt i f y
s o f t
ba la nci ng?
T he a ns we r m a t t e r s
gr e a t ly
f o r bo t h
po li cy
a nd
t he o r y, ye t
i t r e m a i ns e lus i ve be ca us e
s o f t -ba la nci ng pr o po ne nt s
ha ve no t
s uppli e d
t he
co nce pt ua l
t o o ls t o
d i s t i ngui s h
be ha vi o r t ha t i s a n o ut -
gr o wt h
o f t he
s ys t e m i c ba la nci ng i m pe r a t i ve
f r o m wha t we
m i ght
ca ll
"uni po -
la r
po li t i cs
a s us ua l."
Cr uci a lly m i s s i ng
f r o m t he li t e r a t ur e i s s uf f i ci e nt
r e co gni t i o n
t ha t o t he r
e xpla na t i o ns
be s i d e s s o f t
ba la nci ng
e xi s t f o r s t a t e a c-
t i o ns t ha t co ns t r a i n t he Uni t e d S t a t e s . As a
r e s ult ,
a na lys t s
t e nd t o t r e a t
ne a r ly
a ny
be ha vi o r t ha t
co m pli ca t e s
U.S .
a s s o f t
ba la nci ng.
We r e m o ve
t hi s bi a s
by s e t t i ng
o ut f o ur a lt e r na t i ve
e xpla na t i o ns .
ECONOMIC INT ERES T
S t a t e s
m a y
und e r t a ke a ct i o ns t ha t
ha m pe r
t he co nd uct o f U.S .
no t
pr i nci pa lly
be ca us e
t he y
wi s h t o d o
s o ,
but r a t he r t o a d va nce e co no m i c
ga i ns ,
e i t he r f o r t he s t a t e a s a who le o r f o r
po we r f ul
i nt e r e s t
gr o ups
o r bus i ne s s
lo bbi e s . A
go ve r nm e nt 's
i nt e r e s t i n
f o s t e r i ng
e co no m i c
gr o wt h
o r
o bt a i ni ng
r e ve nue f o r i t s e lf o r i t s co ns t i t ue nt s
m a y
be unr e la t e d t o t he
pr e s e nce
o f a he -
ge m o n
o n t he ho r i zo n o r t he
po t e nt i a l s e cur i t y
t hr e a t i t
po s e s .
REGIONAL S ECURIT Y CONCERNS
S t a t e s
r o ut i ne ly pur s ue po li ci e s
t o e nha nce lo ca l
s e cur i t y
t ha t a r e unr e la t e d t o
co ns t r a i ni ng
U.S .
he ge m o ny.
Fo r a
va r i e t y
o f
r e a s o ns ,
t he r e i s a
gr e a t e r
d e -
m a nd f o r
r e gi o na l po li cy
co o r d i na t i o n t ha n e xi s t e d i n t he
pa s t :
a va s t i ncr e a s e
i n t he num be r o f
s t a t e s ;
a
co ns e que nt
i ncr e a s e i n t he o ve r a ll num be r o f we a k
o r f a i le d
s t a t e s ;
a nd t he r i s e o f t r a ns na t i o na l
s e cur i t y cha lle nge s
s uch a s
o r ga -
ni ze d
cr i m e , t e r r o r i s m ,
d r ug t r a f f i cki ng,
a nd
r e f uge e
f lo ws .
Ma jo r po we r s
f r e que nt ly
f a ce i nce nt i ve s t o e nha nce t he i r
ca pa bi li t i e s -o f t e n t hr o ugh
co lla bo -
r a t i o n wi t h o t he r
r e gi o na l
s t a t e s -i n
r e s po ns e
t o t he s e lo ca l o r
r e gi o na l
co n-
ce r ns . T he s e e f f o r t s
m a y
r e s ult i n s hi f t s i n r e la t i ve
po we r -a nd pe r ha ps
i n
r e d uce d U.S . f r e e d o m o f a ct i o n-e ve n i f
co ns t r a i ni ng
U.S .
he ge m o ny
i s no t a n
i m po r t a nt
d r i ve r o f t he m .
S e cur i t y
30:1
180
POLICY DIS PUT ES AND BARGAINING
Ot he r s t a t e s
m a y
und e r t a ke a ct i o ns t ha t co ns t r a i n t he Uni t e d S t a t e s no t i n r e -
s po ns e
t o t he
s e cur i t y
t hr e a t
pr e s e nt e d by
U.S .
he ge m o ny,
but r a t he r be ca us e
t he y s i nce r e ly d i s a gr e e
wi t h
s pe ci f i c
U.S .
po li ci e s .
Go ve r nm e nt s
m a y
r e s i s t a
gi ve n
U.S .
po li cy
be ca us e
t he y
a r e co nvi nce d t ha t i t i s i ll s ui t e d t o t he
pr o ble m
a t ha nd o r o t he r wi s e
i na ppr o pr i a t e ,
a nd no t be ca us e
t he y
t hi nk i t
d i r e ct ly
t hr e a t e ns t he i r
s e cur i t y
o r t ha t
o ppo s i t i o n
t o i t wi ll r e d uce U.S .
po we r
o ve r t he
lo ng
t e r m . If
s o ,
t he n s o f t
ba la nci ng
i s a
m i s no m e r ,
f o r t he be ha vi o r co nce r ne d
i s unr e la t e d t o
m a xi m i zi ng s e cur i t y
und e r
a na r chy by che cki ng
a
d a nge r o us
s ys t e m i c
po we r .
In
s ho r t ,
o t he r s t a t e s
m a y pus h
ba ck
a ga i ns t
s pe ci f i c
U.S .
po li ci e s (pus hi ng
ba ck be ca us e
t he y d i s a gr e e )
a nd no t
a ga i ns t
U.S .
po we r
i n
ge ne r a l (pus hi ng
ba ck be ca us e
t he y
f e a r o r wi s h t o
cha lle nge
U.S . he -
ge m o ny).
Gi ve n t he r e a s o na ble
e xpe ct a t i o n
o f f ut ur e
po li cy
d i f f e r e nce s o n va r -
i o us
i s s ue s ,
a nd t he r e f o r e t he
e xpe ct a t i o n
o f f ut ur e
po li cy ba r ga i ni ng,
i t
f o llo ws t ha t s t a t e s
m a y
t a ke a ct i o ns i nt e nd e d t o
i ncr e a s e ,
o r a t le a s t
m a i nt a i n,
ba r ga i ni ng le ve r a ge
o ve r t he
lo ng
t e r m . T hi s i s whe r e
po li cy ba r ga i ni ng
t a ke s
f o r m s t ha t m o s t
clo s e ly
r e s e m ble wha t
a na lys t s
m e a n
by
s o f t
ba la nci ng.
As we
s ho w
be lo w,
t he r e a r e cr uci a l
a na lyt i ca l
d i f f e r e nce s be t we e n
lo ng-t e r m
ba r -
ga i ni ng
e nha nce m e nt
s t r a t e gi e s
a nd r e a l s o f t
ba la nci ng.
DOMES T IC POLIT ICAL INCENT IVES
Oppo s i ng
t he Uni t e d S t a t e s o n a
pa r t i cula r
i s s ue
m a y
be a
wi nni ng s t r a t e gy
d o m e s t i ca lly
e ve n f o r le a d e r s wi t h no
ge ne r a l
i nt e r e s t i n
co ns t r a i ni ng
U.S .
po we r . Only
d o m e s t i c
o ppo s i t i o n
t ha t i s a n
o ut gr o wt h
o f t he
s e cur i t y
t hr e a t
f lo wi ng
f r o m U.S .
po we r
ca n be
t ho ught
o f a s a m a ni f e s t a t i o n o f s o f t ba la nc-
i ng.
All o t he r
wa ys
i n whi ch t he d o m e s t i c
po li t i cs
o f o t he r co unt r i e s
m a y
f e e d
a ct i o ns t ha t
co m pli ca t e
m a t t e r s f o r t he U.S .
go ve r nm e nt
f a ll o ut s i d e t he
lo gi c
o f s o f t
ba la nci ng. S pe ci f i ca lly,
s o f t
ba la nci ng
d o e s no t
e nco m pa s s o ppo s i t i o n
t o
t he Uni t e d S t a t e s t ha t i s a m a ni f e s t a t i o n o f t he
unpo pula r i t y
o f a
pa r t i cula r
U.S .
po li cy.
In
a d d i t i o n,
o ppo s i ng
m a y
be
s t r o ngly co m pa t i -
ble wi t h
lo ng-s t a nd i ng
hi s t o r i ca l,
po li t i ca l,
o r cult ur a l
und e r s t a nd i ngs -e i t he r
f o r t he na t i o n a s a who le o r f o r i nd i vi d ua l
po li t i ca l pa r t i e s -t ha t pr e d a t e a ny
r e ce nt s hi f t i n U.S .
f o r e i gn po li cy,
o r i nd e e d t he r i s e o f
uni po la r i t y.
S OFT BALANCING VERS US T H E ALT ERNAT IVES
T o t he
d e gr e e
t ha t t he s e o t he r f o ur
e xpla na t i o ns
a cco unt f o r a ct i o ns t ha t co n-
s t r a i n U.S .
f o r e i gn po li cy,
t he
i s we a ke ne d . It wo uld
H a r d T i m e s
181
be
s ur pr i s i ng
t o f i nd no e vi d e nce co ns i s t e nt wi t h t he
s o f t -ba la nci ng e xpla -
na t i o n.
Jus t
a s
unli ke ly
wo uld be e vi d e nce t ha t s o f t
ba la nci ng
i s t he
o nly e xpla -
na t i o n i n
pla y-e ve n t ho ugh
t he
co nce pt 's pr o po ne nt s e s s e nt i a lly i m ply jus t
s uch a n
e xpe ct a t i o n by f a i li ng
t o co ns i d e r a lt e r na t i ve s . T he r e a l i s s ue i s r e la t i ve
s a li e nce .
De t e r m i ni ng
t he
s t r e ngt h
o f t he va r i o us
e xpla na t i o ns ,
ho we ve r ,
i s no
e a s y
t a s k.
T he
ke y
ca s e s o f s o f t
ba la nci ng
a r e
qui t e
r e ce nt ,
s o r e li a ble i ns i d e i nf o r m a -
t i o n ca n be s ca r ce . T he chi e f
put a t i ve s o f t -ba la nci ng po we r s -Fr a nce ,
Rus s i a ,
a nd Chi na -a r e a ls o no t kno wn f o r t he
t r a ns pa r e ncy
o f t he i r e xe cut i ve
d e ci s i o nm a ki ng.
And
publi c
r he t o r i c
pr e s e nt s
d i f f i cult
a na lyt i ca l cha lle nge s .
A
go ve r nm e nt
wi t h a s i nce r e i nt e r e s t i n s o f t
ba la nci ng m a y
no t wa nt t o a d ve r t i s e
i t . At t he s a m e
t i m e ,
a ll f o ur o t he r
d yna m i cs m a y ge ne r a t e ba la nci ng
r he t o r i c
f r o m
po li cym a ke r s , cr e a t i ng pr i m a
f a ci e e vi d e nce f o r a
s o f t -ba la nci ng e xpla na -
t i o n. Le a d e r s m o t i va t e d
chi e f ly by
d o m e s t i c
po li t i ca l
co ns i d e r a t i o ns a r e
ha r d ly
li ke ly
t o
s a y
s o ;
t he y m a y
d e t e ct d o m e s t i c
po li t i ca l a d va nt a ge
i n
t o ut i ng
t he
ba la nci ng
e le m e nt e ve n i f
co unt e r i ng
t he t hr e a t f r o m U.S .
po we r
i s no t t he r e a l
i s s ue . In
t ur n,
le a d e r s who ha ve s i nce r e
po li cy
d i f f e r e nce s wi t h t he Uni t e d
S t a t e s
m a y
t a lk
up ba la nci ng
t o
he lp
bui ld a co a li t i o n t o i ncr e a s e t he i r
ba r ga i n-
i ng le ve r a ge . Be i ng
s e e n
by Wa s hi ngt o n
a s a
po t e nt i a l
s o f t -ba la nce r ha s
r i s ks ,
t o be
s ur e ,
but i t a ls o ho ld s o ut t he
pr o m i s e
o f
m a gni f yi ng
o ne 's
ba r ga i ni ng
i nf lue nce a nd t he
s i gni f i ca nce
o f
a ny
co nce s s i o ns o ne
m i ght
m a ke . Go ve r n-
m e nt s t ha t
pur s ue
r e la t i ve e co no m i c
a d va nt a ge s
f o r t he m s e lve s o r t he i r co n-
s t i t ue nt s
m a y
f i nd i t co nve ni e nt t o clo a k t he
po li cy
i n
hi gh-m i nd e d
t a lk a bo ut
che cki ng
U.S .
po we r .
And t he Uni t e d S t a t e s i s s o
pr o m i ne nt
o n t he
glo ba l s t a ge
t ha t i t ca n
po t e nt i a lly
s e r ve a s a co nve ni e nt f o ca l
po i nt
f o r o t he r s t a t e s t ha t
s e e k t o
co o pe r a t e
o n
r e gi o na l s e cur i t y
i s s ue s . S t a t e s wi ll
li ke ly
ha ve
s t r o ng
d i s -
a gr e e m e nt s
o n t he
s pe ci f i cs
o f ho w t o
co o pe r a t e
a t t he
r e gi o na l
le ve l;
a
publi c
s t a nce
a ga i ns t
U.S .
po li ci e s m a y
be o ne i s s ue
t he y
ca n
a gr e e
o n.
Ba la nci ng
r he t -
o r i c ca n t hus be a us e f ul
r a llyi ng po i nt
f o r
s t i m ula t i ng r e gi o na l co o pe r a t i o n.
Ba la nci ng
t a lk, m o r e o ve r ,
i s o f t e n a s
che a p
a s i t i s us e f ul. A s t a t e ca n r a t i o -
na lly
be
e xpe ct e d
t o a d d r e s s a n i s s ue
o nly
t o t he
d e gr e e
t ha t i t ha s t he
ca pa bi l-
i t y
t o d o s o . Act o r s a nd o bs e r ve r s
e xpe ct
Fr a nce t o
pla y
a f a r m o r e s ubs t a nt i a l
r o le i n
r e s o lvi ng
a n i s s ue i n t he Ba lka ns t ha n i n No r t h
Ko r e a ,
a nd vi ce ve r s a
f o r Chi na . Ye t be ca us e o f t he Uni t e d S t a t e s '
glo be -gi r d li ng ca pa bi li t i e s ,
cr i t i ca l
U.S . i nvo lve m e nt i s
li ke ly
t o be
e xpe ct e d
i n bo t h ca s e s . T hi s i llus t r a t e s t he i m -
m e ns e
ga p
be t we e n t he s e t o f i s s ue s t he Uni t e d S t a t e s
m i ght r a t i o na lly
be e x-
pe ct e d
t o a d d r e s s
s e r i o us ly
a nd t he
co r r e s po nd i ng
i s s ue s e t s o f t he o t he r
gr e a t
S e cur i t y
30:1 82
po we r s .
As a
r e s ult ,
t he r e i s a
r a nge
o f i s s ue s o ve r whi ch
t he y
ca n t a ke
po s i -
t i o ns wi t ho ut
e xpe ct i ng
t o be
co m pe lle d
t o be a r t he co s t s o f t he i r r e s o lut i o n.
Ult i m a t e ly,
r he t o r i c i s a
po o r
i nd i ca t o r o f t he s a li e nce o f s o f t
ba la nci ng.
Pe r ha ps r e co gni zi ng
t he s e
cha lle nge s , pr o po ne nt s
o f t he
co n-
ce pt f r e que nt ly pla ce
m o r e
e m pha s i s
o n i t s
po r t e nt s
f o r t he f ut ur e t ha n o n
i t s
co nt e m po r a r y s i gni f i ca nce .
Fo r t he
a r gum e nt
t o be t a ke n
s e r i o us ly,
ho w-
e ve r ,
t he r e m us t be e vi d e nce f o r i t s cur r e nt
e xpla na t o r y va lue .17
Ot he r wi s e ,
s o f t
ba la nci ng
i s no t a n
e xpla na t i o n
but a n
e xpe ct a t i o n:
a m e r e r e a s s e r t i o n o f
t he
we ll-kno wn,
ne o r e a li s t
pr e d i ct i o n
o f t he r e t ur n o f
m ult i po la r i t y
t ha t ha s
be e n a d va nce d s i nce
1990,
whi ch i s a ls o
t ypi ca lly
f o r m ula t e d i n a n unf a ls i -
f i a ble
m a nne r .18
Alt ho ugh
s o m e
unce r t a i nt y
wi ll
a lwa ys
a t t e nd
jud gm e nt s
a bo ut s uch r e ce nt
e ve nt s ,
t he r e a r e o bs e r va ble
i m pli ca t i o ns
o f t he d i f f e r e nce s be t we e n s o f t ba l-
a nci ng
a nd t he o t he r
e xpla na t i o ns
we d e li ne a t e d . In
a s s e s s i ng
t he
co m pe t i ng
a r gum e nt s ,
t wo
gui d e li ne s
a r e m o s t
i m po r t a nt .
T he f i r s t i s t he o ve r a ll
s i g-
ni f i ca nce o f t he
po li cy.
S o f t
ba la nci ng
i s no t a n
a r gum e nt
a bo ut
s ym bo li c
a c-
t i o n. It
a ppli e s o nly
t o
po li ci e s
t ha t
pr o m i s e
t o d o
s o m e t hi ng
t o i ncr e a s e
co ns t r a i nt s o n o r s hi f t
po we r a ga i ns t
t he Uni t e d S t a t e s . T he s e co nd
gui d e li ne
i s
po li cym a ke r s ' wi lli ngne s s
t o
a cce pt
t r a d e -o f f s be t we e n co ns t r a i nt s o n t he
Uni t e d S t a t e s a nd o t he r va lue d
o bje ct i ve s .
S o f t
ba la nci ng
i s no t a n
a r gum e nt
a bo ut
pr e f e r e nce s
but r a t he r be ha vi o r .
Ma ny po li t i ci a ns
i n
Fr a nce , Rus s i a ,
Chi na ,
a nd o t he r
put a t i ve s o f t -ba la nci ng
s t a t e s
pe r i o d i ca lly e xpr e s s
a
pr e f e r -
e nce f o r wha t
t he y
o f t e n ca ll
"m ult i po la r i t y" (a lt ho ugh by
t hi s
t he y us ua lly
m e a n
m ult i la t e r a li s m ).
T he y
a ls o
e xpr e s s
a d e s i r e f o r
m ut ua lly
be ne f i ci a l
pa r t -
ne r s hi ps
wi t h t he Uni t e d
S t a t e s ,
r o bus t e co no m i c
gr o wt h, pr o s pe r i t y,
a nd
m a ny
o t he r va lue s . T he
que s t i o n
i s : H o w m uch a r e
t he y wi lli ng
t o
gi ve up
t o
o bt a i n co ns t r a i nt s o n t he Uni t e d S t a t e s ? T he Uni t e d S t a t e s i s s o
po we r f ul
t ha t
no s t a t e ca n
m e a ni ngf ully
s e e k t o che ck i t
s i ngle -ha nd e d ly; po li cym a ke r s
who
wi s h t o t a ke t hi s r o ut e wi ll ne e d t o wo r k i n
co njunct i o n
wi t h o t he r s t a t e s t ha t
m us t a ls o s e e a
co m pe lli ng
i nt e r e s t i n
d o i ng
s o -t o t he
po i nt
t ha t
t he y
wi ll
co ns i s t e nt ly
s e e k
o ppo r t uni t i e s
t o che ck U.S .
po we r
e ve n whe n t he
pur s ui t
o f
t hi s
go a l
co nf li ct s wi t h o t he r
pr i o r i t i e s .
17. On t hi s
f a ls i f i a bi li t y
i s s ue ,
s e e Ke i r Li e be r a nd Ge r a r d
Ale xa nd e r ,
"Wa i t i ng
f o r
Ba la nci ng: Why
t he Wo r ld Is n't
Pus hi ng
Ba ck,"
a nnua l
m e e t i ng
o f t he Am e r i ca n Po li t i ca l S ci e nce
As s o ci a t i o n,
Chi -
ca go ,
Illi no i s ,
S e pt e m be r
2-5,
2004.
18. Fo r
e xa m ple , Chr i s t o phe r La yne
a s s e r t s t ha t o t he r s t a t e s wi ll ba la nce t he Uni t e d
S t a t e s ,
but i t
m a y
be
f i f t y ye a r s
be f o r e t hi s o ccur s . S e e
La yne ,
"T he
Uni po la r
Illus i o n,"
p.
17.
H a r d T i m e s
83
T e s t i ng S o f t Ba la nci ng a ga i ns t Uni po la r
Po li t i cs a s Us ua l
Us i ng
t he s e
gui d e li ne s ,
we e va lua t e t he r e la t i ve
s t r e ngt h
o f s o f t
ba la nci ng
co m pa r e d
wi t h t he o t he r
e xpla na t i o ns
i d e nt i f i e d a bo ve i n t he f o ur m o s t
pr o m i -
ne nt ca s e s
hi ghli ght e d by pr o po ne nt s
o f t he
co nce pt .
T he s e ca s e s ha ve a t -
t r a ct e d s o m uch a t t e nt i o n f r o m a d vo ca t e s o f s o f t
ba la nci ng
be ca us e
t he y
s ha r e
t hr e e
ke y
cha r a ct e r i s t i cs :
(1)
t he y
i nvo lve co o r d i na t i o n
a m o ng
t wo o r m o r e
s t a t e s i n a r e a s
d i r e ct ly
r e la t e d t o
s e cur i t y;
(2)
a t le a s t o ne
gr e a t po we r ,
a nd i n
m o s t ca s e s s e ve r a l o f
t he m ,
a r e
i nvo lve d ;
a nd
(3)
t he y
f e a t ur e s t a t e a ct i o ns t ha t
m a ke i t ha r d e r f o r
Wa s hi ngt o n
t o a d va nce i t s
f o r e i gn po li cy go a ls .
RUS S IAN "S T RAT EGIC PART NERS H IPS " WIT H INDIA AND CH INA
In s o m e
r e s pe ct s ,
Rus s i a 's
wi t h Ind i a a nd
e s pe ci a lly
Chi na
r e pr e s e nt
t he
s t r o nge s t
ca s e o f s o f t
ba la nci ng.19
T he s e a r e
t r e a t y-
go ve r ne d r e la t i o ns hi ps
t ha t ha ve r e s ult e d i n a ne t s hi f t i n t he d i s t r i but i o n o f
m i li t a r y po we r a ga i ns t
t he Uni t e d S t a t e s . Rus s i a 's o wn
m i li t a r y
i s
pr e s e nt ly
una ble t o us e m o s t o f t he
o ut put
o f i t s d e f e ns e
i nd us t r y.
T o t he e xt e nt t ha t i t s
wi t h Ind i a a nd Chi na
pe r m i t
t he t r a ns f e r o f s o m e o f t hi s
o ut put
t o m i li t a r i e s t ha t ca n us e i t
e f f e ct i ve ly,
t he ne t e f f e ct i s a s hi f t i n r e la t i ve
po we r .
Mo r e o ve r ,
Rus s i a -Chi na
co o pe r a t i o n
i nclud e s t he cr e a t i o n a nd
pr o m o -
t i o n o f a
r e gi o na l s e cur i t y o r ga ni za t i o n
t ha t e xclud e s t he Uni t e d S t a t e s -t he
S ha ngha i Co o pe r a t i o n Or ga ni za t i o n
(S CO).
In t he
e nd , ho we ve r ,
e a ch o f t he
t hr e e e le m e nt s t ha t m a ke
up
t he m uch-t o ut e d "As i a n
t r i a ngle "'--t he d i plo -
m a t i c
r e la t i o ns hi ps ,
t he
S CO,
a nd t he a r m s s a le s -d e f i e s a
i nt e r pr e t a t i o n.
Alt ho ugh
Rus s i a n, Chi ne s e ,
a nd
(t o
a le s s e r
e xt e nt )
Ind i a n le a d e r s
pe r i o d i -
ca lly
d e s cr i be t he i r
d i plo m a t i c pa r t ne r s hi ps
a s a n
e xpr e s s i o n
o f t he i r
pr e f e r -
e nce f o r a
m ult i po la r
wo r ld ,
t he r e i s li t t le e vi d e nce t ha t
ba la nci ng
U.S .
po we r
i s a
d r i vi ng
f o r ce be hi nd t he m . Rhe t o r i c
no t wi t hs t a nd i ng,
t he
po li ci e s
a r e
cr a f t e d
pr e ci s e ly
t o a vo i d t he ne e d f o r
a ny
o f t he
pa r t i e s
t o f a ce a t r a d e -o f f be -
t we e n t he i r m ut ua l
pa r t ne r s hi ps
a nd t he i r
ke y
bi la t e r a l
r e la t i o ns hi ps
wi t h t he
Uni t e d S t a t e s . Rus s i a 's
pa r t ne r s hi p
wi t h Ind i a a m o unt s t o a S o vi e t ho ld o ve r
ba s e d o n t he
Fr i e nd s hi p T r e a t y
o f
1971,
who s e
la ngua ge i m pli e d
we a k
s e cur i t y
o bli ga t i o ns
e ve n i n t he Co ld Wa r , a nd t he
la r ge ly s ym bo li c
De cla r a t i o n o n S t r a -
19.
Ana lys e s
t ha t t r e a t t he s e
pa r t ne r s hi ps
i n
t e r m s i nclud e
Pa ul,
"End ur i ng
Ax-
i o m s "; Wa lt ,
"Ca n t he Uni t e d S t a t e s Be
Ba la nce d ?";
a nd
Jo f f e "De f yi ng H i s t o r y
a nd
T he o r y."
S e cur i t y
30:1
184
t e gi c Pa r t ne r s hi p s i gne d by
Rus s i a n Pr e s i d e nt Vla d i m i r Put i n a nd Ind i a n
Pr i m e Mi ni s t e r At a l Be ha r i
Va jpa ye e
i n 2000. T he Rus s i a -Chi na
T r e a t y
o n
Go o d -Ne i ghbo r li ne s s , Fr i e nd s hi p,
a nd
Co o pe r a t i o n, s i gne d
i n
2001,
ca ppe d
m o r e t ha n a d e ca d e o f
i m pr o vi ng
bi la t e r a l
t i e s ,
but i t
s i m i la r ly
la cks
a nyt hi ng
r e s e m bli ng
a m ut ua l d e f e ns e
cla us e .20
Whi le t he
t r e a t y o bli ga t e s
t he
s i gna t o -
r i e s i n a
ge ne r a l
s e ns e t o m a i nt a i n t he
glo ba l e qui li br i um
a nd t o co ns ult e a ch
o t he r i n t he e ve nt o f
s e cur i t y
t hr e a t s ,
ne i t he r i t no r
a ny
o t he r
publi c
Rus s o -
Chi ne s e
a gr e e m e nt
e nt a i ls
a ny
o bs e r va ble o r
co s t ly
co m m i t m e nt t o co unt e r
U.S .
po we r .
No m ut ua l
und e r t a ki ng by
t he t wo
po we r s
i n a cco r d a nce wi t h
t he i r
pa r t ne r s hi p
ha s i nvo lve d
m a jo r
co s t s i n t he i r
wi t h t he
Uni t e d S t a t e s . T he s a m e i s t r ue o f Rus s i a 's
co o pe r a t i o n
wi t h Ind i a .
T hi s r e luct a nce t o
je o pa r d i ze
r e la t i o ns wi t h t he Uni t e d S t a t e s i s no t
s ur pr i s -
i ng
t o
e xpe r t s
o n a ll t hr e e co unt r i e s .
Rus s i a , Chi na ,
a nd Ind i a a r e
pur s ui ng
gr a nd s t r a t e gi e s
t ha t
hi ghli ght
e co no m i c a nd i ns t i t ut i o na l
m o d e r ni za t i o n,
a
go a l
t ha t
r e qui r e s
co r d i a l r e la t i o ns wi t h t he Uni t e d S t a t e s a nd t he
glo ba l
e co -
no m i c i ns t i t ut i o ns o ve r whi ch i t ha s s uch a
s t r o ng
i nf lue nce . T he
s t r a t e gy
ha s
yi e ld e d hi gh gr o wt h
r a t e s f o r a ll t hr e e co unt r i e s i n r e ce nt
ye a r s .
Mo r e o ve r ,
i n
a ll t hr e e
ca s e s ,
po li cym a ke r s
ha ve
e xpli ci t ly
r e o r i e nt e d t he i r
s t r a t e gi c pr i o r i t i e s
t o
e m pha s i ze r e gi o na l s e cur i t y
i s s ue s s uch a s t e r r o r i s m a nd
we a po ns pr o li f e r a -
t i o n o n whi ch
t he y
t e nd t o ha ve
r o ughly
s i m i la r
pr e f e r e nce s
t o t ho s e o f t he
Uni t e d S t a t e s .21
A
s i gni f i ca nt
co ns t r a i nt o n t he
d e ve lo pm e nt
o f
d e e p
Rus s i a -Chi na
s e cur i t y
t i e s i s t he na t ur e o f t he i r e co no m i c
r e la t i o ns hi p:
t r a d e be t we e n t he t wo co un-
t r i e s r e m a i ns
a ne m i c;
t he y
d o no t ha ve
co m ple m e nt a r y
e co no m i e s f r o m whi ch
hi gh
le ve ls o f t r a d e ca n
d e ve lo p;
a nd bo t h a r e
d e pe nd e nt
t o a
la r ge d e gr e e
o n
i nwa r d f lo ws o f
ca pi t a l
a nd
t e chno lo gy,
whi ch co m e
m a i nly
f r o m t he We s t .
Eve n m o r e
i m po r t a nt ,
Rus s i a 's
wi lli ngne s s
t o co m m i t t o i t s As i a n
pa r t ne r s hi ps
i s li m i t e d
by
i t s
pe r ce i ve d
we a kne s s i n t he
r e gi o n.22
Rus s i a ns r e m a i n
wa r y
o f
Chi na 's
gr o wi ng
e co no m i c a nd
d i plo m a t i c
clo ut ,
a nd
e xpr e s s
a
ge ne r a l pr e f e r -
20. Fo r a d e t a i le d
a na lys i s
o f t he
t r e a t y,
s e e Eli za be t h
Wi s hni ck,
"Rus s i a a nd Chi na : Br o t he r s
Aga i n?"
As i a n
S ur ve y,
Vo l.
41,
No . 5
(S e pt e m be r -Oct o be r
2001),
pp.
797-821.
21.
Am ple
e vi d e nce a nd
a na lys i s co nce r ni ng
t he s e
gr a nd s t r a t e gi e s
i s
pr e s e nt e d
i n t he
cha pt e r s
o n
Rus s i a , Ind i a ,
a nd Chi na i n Ri cha r d
J. Elli ngs
a nd Aa r o n L.
Fr i e d be r g,
wi t h Mi cha e l
Wi lls , e d s .,
S t r a t e gi c
As i a ,
2002-03: As i a n
Af t e r s ho cks
(S e a t t le ,
Wa s h.: Na t i o na l Bur e a u o f As i a n
Re s e a r ch, 2003).
On Chi na 's
gr a nd s t r a t e gy
a nd i t s
i m pli ca t i o ns
f o r
ba la nci ng,
s e e
Ave r y
Go ld s t e i n,
"An
Em e r gi ng
Chi na 's Gr a nd
S t r a t e gy,"
i n G.
Jo hn Ike nbe r r y
a nd Mi cha e l
Ma s t a nd uno , e d s .,
Int e r na t i o na l Re la -
t i o ns
T he o r y
a nd t he As i a
Pa ci f i c
(Ne w Yo r k: Co lum bi a
Uni ve r s i t y
Pr e s s , 2002);
a nd Ala s t a i r
Ia i n
Jo hns t o n,
"Is Chi na a S t a t us
Quo
Po we r ?" Int e r na t i o na l
S e cur i t y,
Vo l.
27,
No . 4
(S pr i ng
2003),
pp.
5-
56.
22. Bo bo
Lo ,
"T he
Lo ng
S uns e t o f
S t r a t e gi c Pa r t ne r s hi p:
Rus s i a 's
Evo lvi ng
Chi na
Po li cy,"
Int e r na -
t i o na l
Af f a i r s ,
Vo l.
80,
No . 2 (Ma r ch 2004),
pp.
295-309.
H a r d T i m e s
85
e nce f o r
d i ve r s i f yi ng
Rus s i a 's As i a n
r e la t i o ns hi ps . S us pi ci o ns pla gue
bo t h
co unt r i e s ,
s t e m m i ng pa r t ly
f r o m m ut ua l f e a r s t ha t e a ch i s
us i ng
t he o t he r
o nly
t o
ga i n le ve r a ge
o ve r
Wa s hi ngt o n. Ma ny
Rus s i a n
a na lys t s r e ga r d
t he i r co un-
t r y's pa r t ne r s hi p
wi t h Ind i a a s a
he d ge a ga i ns t r i s i ng
Chi ne s e
po we r
i n As i a .
Rus s i a t e nd s t o s e ll Ind i a m o r e a d va nce d
we a po ns s ys t e m s
t ha n i t
e xpo r t s
t o
Chi na ,
a nd t he
a gr e e m e nt s
o n t he
jo i nt d e s i gn
a nd
pr o d uct i o n
o f
we a po ns
t ha t
Rus s i a ha s
s i gne d
wi t h Ind i a a ls o t e nd t o be
d e e pe r
a nd m o r e
co m pr e he ns i ve
t ha n t he
a r r a nge m e nt s
t ha t Mo s co w ha s m a d e wi t h
Be i ji ng.
Rus s i a n o f f i ci a ls
a r e
qui ck
t o ci t e t he s e f a ct s whe n
que s t i o ne d by
d o m e s t i c cr i t i cs who a ccus e
t he m o f
m o r t ga gi ng
Rus s i a 's
s e cur i t y t hr o ugh
t he a r m s t r a ns f e r s t o Chi na .
T he s e
ba ckgr o und
f a ct o r s a ll
he lp
t o
e xpla i n
t he r e a l r o le a nd li m i t a t i o ns o f
t he S CO. Rus s i a n a nd Chi ne s e le a d e r s ha ve
f r e que nt ly
us e d S CO
ga t he r i ngs
t o
e xpr e s s
t he i r
pr e f e r e nce
f o r a
m ult i po la r
wo r ld ,
a nd o bs e r ve r s s o m e t i m e s s e e
t he
o r ga ni za t i o n
a s a
co o r d i na t i ng
m e cha ni s m f o r
co unt e r ba la nci ng
U.S .
po we r
i n t he
r e gi o n.23
Ye t
a n e xa m i na t i o n
o f t he
o r ga ni za t i o n's
r e a l a ct i vi t i e s
be li e s t hi s
i nt e r pr e t a t i o n.24
T he S CO's m a i n i ni t i a l
go a l
wa s co nf i d e nce bui ld -
i ng a m o ng
t he ne w s t a t e s i n t he
r e gi o n, e s pe ci a lly by r e s o lvi ng
o ld S o vi e t -
Chi ne s e bo r d e r
d i s put e s .
Chi na f ur t he r
s o ught
t o s t a bi li ze a nd s e cur e i t s
bo r d e r s f r o m Is la m i c
e xt r e m i s m ,
a f a ct o r t ha t t hr e a t e ne d no t
o nly po s t -
S o vi e t Ce nt r a l As i a but a ls o t he r e s t i ve
Xi nji a ng r e gi o n
o f we s t e r n Chi na .
Chi na f e a r e d t ha t t he
Ui ghur s e pa r a t i s t s
we r e
r e ce i vi ng f und i ng
a nd a r m s
f r o m
Ui ghur s
i n i t s
ne i ghbo r i ng
s t a t e s ,
a s we ll a s f r o m
Af gha ni s t a n.
Rus s i a
s ha r e d t he co m m o n t hr e a t o f a n
i ncr e a s i ngly
Is la m i ci ze d Che che n
s e pa r a t i s t
m o ve m e nt . Uzbe ki s t a n
jo i ne d
t he S CO i n 2001 a s i t
s o ught
a co m m o n f o r um
f o r
r e s po nd i ng
t o t he Is la m i c Mo ve m e nt o f Uzbe ki s t a n
(IMU)-a
t r a ns na t i o na l
gue r r i lla
t hr e a t .25 T he S CO
s i gne d
a d e cla r a t i o n o n
June 15, 2001,
e xpa nd i ng
i t s
m i s s i o n i n t he
r e gi o n
a nd f o cus e d
i ncr e a s i ngly
o n t e r r o r i s t
t hr e a t s ,
r e li gi o us
e xt r e m i s m ,
a nd t o a le s s e r
e xt e nt ,
a r m s a nd na r co t i cs
t r a f f i cki ng.
T he
o r ga -
ni za t i o n a nno unce d t he cr e a t i o n o f a co unt e r t e r r o r i s m ce nt e r i n
Bi s hke k,
Kyr gyzs t a n,
kno wn a s t he
Re gi o na l
Ant i t e r r o r i s m S t r uct ur e
(RAT S ),
but t he
pr o je ct
s t a lle d a nd f e w a s s e t s we r e i nve s t e d o r r e s o ur ce s co m m i t t e d .26
23.
S e e ,
f o r
e xa m ple , S e r ge i Bla go v,
"Rus s i a
S e e ki ng
t o
S t r e ngt he n Re gi o na l Or ga ni za t i o ns
t o
Co unt e r ba la nce We s t e r n
Inf lue nce ,"
Eur a s i a
Ins i ght ,
De ce m be r
4,
2002.
24. S e e Ka t hle e n Co lli ns a nd Wi lli a m C.
Wo hlf o r t h,
"Ce nt r a l As i a :
De f yi ng
'Gr e a t Ga m e '
Expe ct a -
t i o ns ,"
i n Ri cha r d
J. Elli ngs
a nd Aa r o n L.
Fr i e d be r g,
wi t h Mi cha e l
Wi lls , e d s .,
S t r a t e gi c
As i a ,
2003-
04:
Fr a gi li t y
a nd Cr i s i s
(S e a t t le ,
Wa s h.: Na t i o na l Bur e a u o f As i a n
Re s e a r ch, 2004),
pp.
291-317.
25. Int e r vi e w wi t h s e ni o r
a na lys t ,
Ins t i t ut e o f
S t r a t e gi c
S t ud i e s , Uzbe ki s t a n, T a s hke nt ,
Augus t
2002,
r e po r t e d
i n Co lli ns a nd
Wo hlf o r t h,
"Ce nt r a l As i a :
De f yi ng
'Gr e a t Ga m e '
Expe ct a t i o ns ."
26. "De cla r a t i o n o f t he Es t a bli s hm e nt o f t he
S ha ngha i Co o pe r a t i o n Or ga ni za t i o n, June 15, 2001,"
ht t p://www.m i s s i o ns .i t u.i nt /?ka za ks /e ng/s co /s co 02.ht m .
S e cur i t y
30:1 86
A
ke y pr o ble m
wi t h
i nt e r pr e t i ng
t he S CO a s a n
e xa m ple
o f s o f t
ba la nci ng
i s
t ha t t he m a i n i s s ue t ha t
Chi na , Rus s i a ,
a nd t he Ce nt r a l As i a n s t a t e s
a gr e e d
upo n
t ha t wa r r a nt e d a n
upgr a d i ng
o f t he
wa s co unt e r t e r r o r i s m .
H a vi ng
co o r d i na t e d t he S CO a r o und t hi s
i s s ue , ho we ve r ,
t he m e m be r s we r e
una ble t o a s s e m ble t he
ca pa bi li t i e s r e qui r e d
t o a d d r e s s i t . T hi s
s ho r t co m i ng
wa s m a d e
br ut a lly
e vi d e nt a f t e r t he t e r r o r i s t a t t a cks o f
S e pt e m be r
11, 2001,
whe n U.S .-le d
Ope r a t i o n End ur i ng
Fr e e d o m
qui ckly t o pple d
t he
r uli ng
T a li ba n i n
Af gha ni s t a n
a nd we a ke ne d t he IMU-t he
ve r y
t hr e a t s who s e r i s e
ha d
jus t be gun
t o
pr o vi d e
t he S CO's r a i s o n
d 'e t r e .
T he U.S .
d e plo ym e nt
t o
Af gha ni s t a n
cr e a t e d a co nt r a d i ct i o n be t we e n t he S CO's r he t o r i ca l r o le a s a
m e cha ni s m a nd i t s
o pe r a t i o na l
r o le a s a
o r -
ga ni za t i o n.
Chi na a nd Rus s i a r e s o lve d t he co nt r a d i ct i o n
by ba nd wa go ni ng
wi t h t he Uni t e d S t a t e s i n t he wa r o n t e r r o r .
Ind e e d ,
o n
S e pt e m be r
14, 2001,
t he
S CO wa s t he f i r s t i nt e r na t i o na l
t o i s s ue a f o r m a l s t a t e m e nt co n-
d e m ni ng
t he a t t a cks o n t he Uni t e d S t a t e s . An
e xt r a o r d i na r y m e e t i ng
o f S CO
f o r e i gn
m i ni s t e r s i n
Be i ji ng
i n
Ja nua r y
2002
ple d ge d
t he
o r ga ni za t i o n's s uppo r t
f o r t he UN
S e cur i t y
Co unci l r e s o lut i o ns o n
Af gha ni s t a n
a nd t he i nt e r na t i o na l
wa r o n t e r r o r .27
In
s ho r t ,
pr a gm a t i c r e gi o na l co o pe r a t i o n
i s t he chi e f d r i ve r o f t he
S CO,
wi t h
r he t o r i c s o m e t i m e s
pr o vi d i ng
a co nve ni e nt f o ca l
po i nt
f o r
r a lly-
i ng gr e a t e r
co lla bo r a t i o n. T he r e a l co r e o f Rus s i a 's
wi t h Ind i a a nd
Chi na , ho we ve r ,
i s no t t he
d i plo m a t i c pa r t ne r s hi ps
but e xt e ns i ve
m i li t a r y
co pr o d uct i o n a r r a nge m e nt s
a nd
m a jo r
a r m s s a le s . Ye t Rus s i a 's i nt e r e s t i n t he s e
e xpo r t s
i s no t d r i ve n
by
t he ne e d t o co unt e r ba la nce U.S .
po we r
but r a t he r
by
a
d e s pe r a t e
ne e d t o s lo w t he i ne xo r a ble d e cli ne o f i t s
m i li t a r y
i nd us t r i a l co m -
ple x.
Be t we e n 1992 a nd
1998,
Rus s i a
e xpe r i e nce d
wha t wa s
pr o ba bly
t he
s t e e p-
e s t
pe a ce t i m e
d e cli ne i n
m i li t a r y po we r by a ny m a jo r
s t a t e i n
hi s t o r y.28
We a po ns pr o cur e m e nt
a nd
s pe nd i ng
d e cli ne d
d r a m a t i ca lly
a f t e r
1991,
a nd
by
2000
o nly
20
pe r ce nt
o f Rus s i a 's
o pe r a t i o na l we a po ns
s t o cks we r e
m o d e r n,
co m pa r e d
wi t h 60-80
pe r ce nt
i n NAT O
co unt r i e s .29
Ma i nt e na nce a nd
t r a i ni ng
27.
"Jo i nt
S t a t e m e nt
by
t he Mi ni s t e r s o f
Fo r e i gn
Af f a i r s o f t he Me m be r S t a t e s o f t he
S ha ngha i
Co -
o pe r a t i o n Or ga ni za t i o n," Ja nua r y
7, 2002,
Be i ji ng, ht t p://r us s i a .s ha ps .ha wa i i .e d u/f p/r us s i a /
s co 3 20020107ht m .
28.
Chr i s t o phe r
H i ll,
"Rus s i a n De f e ns e
S pe nd i ng,"
i n Uni t e d S t a t e s
Co ngr e s s ,
Jo i nt
Eco no m i c
Co m m i t t e e ,
Rus s i a 's
Unce r t a i n Eco no m i c Fut ur e
(Wa s hi ngt o n,
D.C.: U.S . Go ve r nm e nt
Pr i nt i ng
Of f i ce , 2002),
p.
168. Fo r a n e xce lle nt o ve r vi e w o f t he d e f e ns e
s e ct o r 's d i le m m a s ,
s e e
Chr i s t o phe r
Da vi s ,
"Co unt r y S ur ve y
XV: T he De f e nce S e ct o r i n t he
Eco no m y
o f a
De cli ni ng S upe r po we r :
S o -
vi e t Uni o n a nd
Rus s i a , 1965-2001,"
De f e nce
a nd Pe a ce
Eco no m i cs ,
Vo l.
13,
No . 3
(June 2002),
pp.
145-
177.
29.
"Only
20% o f Rus s i a n Ar m s Ar e
Mo d e r n," RFE/RL Da i ly Re po r t , Ma y
21,
2001.
H a r d T i m e s
87
a r e
d i s m a l; pe r s o nne l pr o ble m s
a r e d i r e a nd
ge t t i ng wo r s e ."3
Una ble t o s ubd ue
t he Che che n
r e be ls ,
t he Rus s i a n
m i li t a r y
i s be s e t
by
s o
m a ny pr o ble m s
o f s uch
m a gni t ud e
t ha t
e xpe r t s a gr e e
t ha t
m a jo r
r e f o r m s
e nt a i li ng huge e xpe nd i t ur e s
a r e
cr i t i ca lly ne ce s s a r y s i m ply
t o f o r e s t a ll i t s co nt i nue d d e cli ne . Incr e a s e d bud -
ge t a r y o ut la ys
a nd i nt e ns i f i e d r e f o r m e f f o r t s a r e t hus d r i ve n
by d e e p pr o ble m s
o f
d e ca y
t ha t a r e unr e la t e d t o
U.S .
po we r .
Ar m s s a le s a r e a
s ubs t r a t e gy
t ha t a i d s Rus s i a 's m o r e
ge ne r a l
i nt e r e s t i n s t a v-
i ng
o f f f ur t he r
m i li t a r y
d e cli ne . Gi ve n t he
co lla ps e
o f d o m e s t i c o r d e r s
(i n
2001
o nly
10
pe r ce nt
o f Rus s i a n d e f e ns e f i r m s r e ce i ve d s t a t e
o r d e r s ),
Rus s i a 's d e -
f e ns e s e ct o r
po s s e s s e s
m a s s i ve e xce s s
ca pa ci t y.31 Expo r t s
a r e a li f e li ne f o r a m i l-
i t a r y i nd us t r y pr o d uci ng
le s s t ha n o ne -t hi r d o f i t s 1992
o ut put ,
a nd
r a pi d ly
lo s i ng t e chno lo gi ca l co m pe t i t i ve ne s s .
Rus s i a wa nt s t o s us t a i n a co r e d e f e ns e
m a nuf a ct ur i ng ca pa ci t y
unt i l e co no m i c
gr o wt h
a f f o r d s i t t he
o ppo r t uni t y
t o
m o d e r ni ze i t s
s ur vi vi ng m i li t a r y
i nf r a s t r uct ur e a nd t o t r a ns f e r e xce s s d e f e ns e
wo r ke r s a nd
pr o d uct i o n ca pa ci t i e s
i nt o m o r e
co m pe t i t i ve
s e ct o r s . Eve n m o r e
i m m e d i a t e ly, e xpo r t s
a i d a d e f e ns e s e ct o r t ha t
s uppli e s
i nco m e a nd we lf a r e
s e r vi ce s t o hund r e d s o f t ho us a nd s o f wo r ke r s a nd t he i r
f a m i li e s ,
pr o vi d e s
t he
e co no m i c li f e blo o d o f d o ze ns o f
ci t i e s ,
a nd e nr i che s num e r o us
m a na ge r s
a nd
publi c
o f f i ci a ls .
Mi li t a r y i nd us t r y r e pr e s e nt s
o ne o f t he f e w
hi gh-t e chno lo gy
s e ct o r s i n whi ch Rus s i a ns r e m a i n
co m pe t i t i ve ,
a nd
t he y pe r ce i ve
a
s t r o ng
o ve r -
a ll co m m e r ci a l i nt e r e s t i n
pr o m o t i ng e xpo r t s .
In
s um ,
t he e vi d e nce
co nce r ni ng
Rus s i a 's
m a jo r
a r m s
o ve r -
whe lm i ngly
i nd i ca t e s t ha t
Mo s co w's
e a ge r ne s s
t o s e ll
we a po nr y
t o
Be i ji ng
a nd
Ne w De lhi i s
o nly i nd i r e ct ly
a nd
m a r gi na lly
co nne ct e d t o t he i s s ue o f U.S . he -
ge m o ny.
If t he Uni t e d S t a t e s we r e t o cut i t s d e f e ns e
o ut la ys by
t wo -t hi r d s t o -
m o r r o w,
Mo s co w's i nt e r e s t i n a r m s s a le s wo uld be
und i m i ni s he d ,
a s wo uld
Ind i a 's d e m a nd . T o be
s ur e ,
Chi na 's d e m a nd f o r Rus s i a n
m i li t a r y
ha r d wa r e i s
pa r t ly
a
r e s po ns e
t o U.S .
m i li t a r y s uppo r t
f o r
T a i wa n,
but Chi na 's d e s i r e t o e n-
ha nce i t s
ba r ga i ni ng po s i t i o n
o ve r t he T a i wa n S t r a i t ha s be e n a co ns t a nt s i nce
1949 a nd he nce i s no t
ca us a lly
r e la t e d t o t he a d ve nt o f
uni po la r i t y
a f t e r 1991 o r
r e ce nt U.S .
s e cur i t y
be ha vi o r . And wha t m a ke s t he
s upe r f i ci a lly a ppli ca ble
t o t he ca s e i s no t t ha t Chi na wa nt s t o
i m po r t we a p-
o ns . If t he Chi ne s e o bt a i ne d
we a po nr y
f r o m Is r a e l o r S o ut h
Af r i ca ,
i t wo uld
ha r d ly
a t t r a ct t he a t t e nt i o n o f
s o f t -ba la nci ng pr o po ne nt s .
T he a r m s s a le s s e e m
s o
s i gni f i ca nt
be ca us e
t he y
co m e f r o m Rus s i a , s ugge s t i ng
i nt e r s t a t e
co o pe r a -
30.
"Eve r y
T hi r d Po t e nt i a l
Co ns cr i pt
S a i d No t Fi t f o r
Mi li t a r y
S e r vi ce ," It a r -T a s s ,
Ma y
23,
2002.
31. Ke vi n P.
O'Pr e y,
"Ar m s
Expo r t s
a nd Rus s i a 's De f e ns e Ind us t r i e s : Is s ue s f o r t he U.S .
Co ngr e s s ,"
i n
Jo i nt
Eco no m i c Co m m i t t e e ,
Rus s i a 's Unce r t a i n Eco no m i c
Fut ur e ,
pp.
385-410.
S e cur i t y
30:1
188
t i o n t o ba la nce U.S .
ca pa bi li t i e s .
Ye t t he e vi d e nce
s t r o ngly
i nd i ca t e s t ha t i t i s
ne e d s i n
co njunct i o n
wi t h e co no m i c
co nce r ns ,
no t s o f t ba l-
a nci ng,
t ha t
e xpla i n
Rus s i a n
m i li t a r y
s a le s t o bo t h Chi na a nd Ind i a .
T H E MOS COW-T EH RAN CONNECT ION
Ana lys t s co m m o nly i nt e r pr e t gr e a t po we r s uppo r t
f o r s t a t e s t ha t a r e
o ppo -
ne nt s o f t he Uni t e d S t a t e s a s s o f t
ba la nci ng.
Rus s i a 's
wi t h Ir a n i s
t he m o s t
pr o m i ne nt
ca s e i n
po i nt .32
Rus s i a ha s a s s i s t e d Ir a n's nucle a r
pr o gr a m ,
co o pe r a t e d
i n
s pa ce t e chno lo gy
a nd o t he r
hi gh-t e chno lo gy
a r e a s ,
s o ld
la r ge
qua nt i t i e s
o f
m i li t a r y
ha r d wa r e
(Ir a n
i s Rus s i a 's t hi r d
la r ge s t
cus t o m e r ,
a f t e r
Chi na a nd
Ind i a ),
a nd
pur s ue d
a
ge ne r a l po li cy
o f
e nga ge m e nt
wi t h Ir a n. S uch
po li ci e s he lpe d
t o but t r e s s Ir a n
a ga i ns t pr e s s ur e
f r o m
Wa s hi ngt o n
f o r
ne a r ly
a
d e ca d e .
T he r e i s s ca nt
e vi d e nce , ho we ve r ,
t ha t a d e s i r e t o ba la nce U.S .
po we r
e x-
pla i ns
t he
r e la t i o ns hi p. Re gi o na l s e cur i t y
co nce r ns a nd e co no m i c i nce nt i ve s
ha ve r e m a i ne d
co ns i s t e nt ly
a t t he f o r e f r o nt . Rus s i a ha s num e r o us r e a s o ns be -
s i d e s
ba la nci ng
U.S .
po we r
t o s e e k
go o d
r e la t i o ns wi t h Ir a n. Nucle a r
s a le s ,
t e chno lo gy
t r a ns f e r s ,
a nd o t he r m o ve s t ha t
a ppe a r
t o bo ls t e r Ir a n s e r ve a s
pa r t
o f a n
e nga ge m e nt s t r a t e gy
t ha t i s i t s e lf d r i ve n
by
Mo s co w's ne e d f o r Ir a ni a n
co o pe r a t i o n
i n
r e s o lvi ng
a
co m ple x
ne xus o f
r e gi o na l
i s s ue s
s ur r o und i ng
t he
e xplo i t a t i o n
o f
pe t r o le um
a nd o t he r na t ur a l r e s o ur ce s i n t he
Ca s pi a n.
Eve n r e -
gi o na l a na lys t s
who s t r e s s t he
i m po r t a nce
o f
ge o po li t i cs
d o no t a cco r d ba la nc-
i ng
t he Uni t e d S t a t e s a
s i gni f i ca nt
r o le i n
e xpla i ni ng
t he Mo s co w-T e hr a n
co nne ct i o n.33 As i n t he Chi na
ca s e ,
Mo s co w ha s no i nce nt i ve t o a li e na t e T e h-
r a n. At t he s a m e
t i m e ,
t he t wo s t a t e s r e m a i ne d a t
lo gge r he a d s
o n lo ca l i s s ue s
t hr o ugho ut
t he 1990s a nd
e a r ly
2000s ,
pla ci ng
li m i t s o n t he
s co pe
a nd
d e pt h
o f
t he i r
co o pe r a t i o n.
Rus s i a 's a r m s s a le s t o Ir a n but t r e s s t hi s
ge ne r a l s t r a t e gy
o f
e nga ge m e nt .
But ,
a s i n t he Chi na a nd Ind i a
ca s e s ,
e co no m i c i nce nt i ve s lo o m
la r ge
f o r a ll t he r e a -
s o ns no t e d a bo ve . T he i s s ue o f nucle a r
co o pe r a t i o n
a t t r a ct s t he m o s t a t t e nt i o n
f r o m
a na lys t s .
Fr o m t he
e a r ly
1990s
o n,
Rus s i a wa s t he
o nly m a jo r po we r
o pe nly co o pe r a t i ng
wi t h Ir a n i n t hi s
a r e a ,
d e f yi ng o cca s i o na lly
i nt e ns e
pr e s -
32.
S e e ,
f o r
e xa m ple , Pa pe ,
"S o f t
Ba la nci ng";
a nd
Wa lt ,
33.
S e e ,
f o r
e xa m ple ,
Ca r o l R.
S a i ve t z,
"Pe r s pe ct i ve s
o n t he
Ca s pi a n
S e a Di le m m a : Rus s i a n Po l-
i ci e s s i nce t he S o vi e t
De m i s e ,"
Eur a s i a n
Ge o gr a phy
&
Eco no m i cs ,
Vo l.
44,
No . 8 (De ce m be r 2003),
pp.
588-607;
Ga wd a t
Ba hga t , "Pi pe li ne Di plo m a cy:
T he
Ge o po li t i cs
o f t he
Ca s pi a n
S e a
Re gi o n,"
Int e r na t i o na l S t ud i e s
Pe r s pe ct i ve s ,
Vo l.
3,
No . 3
(Augus t
2002),
pp.
310-327;
a nd
Do ugla s
W.
Blum ,
"Pe r s pe ct i ve s
o n t he
Ca s pi a n
S e a Di le m m a : A
Fr a m i ng Co m m e nt ,"
Eur a s i a n
Ge o gr a phy
& Eco no m -
i cs ,
Vo l.
44,
No . 8 (De ce m be r
2003), pp.
617-703.
H a r d T i m e s
189
s ur e f r o m
Wa s hi ngt o n.
T he chi e f
pr o ble m
wi t h a
s o f t -ba la nci ng i nt e r pr e t a t i o n
i s t ha t Rus s i a
e xpe r t s
a r e
vi r t ua lly
una ni m o us i n
r e ga r d i ng
t he Mo s co w-
T e hr a n nucle a r co nne ct i o n a s d r i ve n
pr i nci pa lly by
e co no m i c co nce r ns . No o ne
i n Rus s i a i s a ble t o
d e ve lo p
a
pla us i ble a r gum e nt
f o r ho w t he
co unt r y's
s e cu-
r i t y
wo uld be ne f i t f r o m Ir a n's nucle a r i za t i o n.
Rus s i a 's
o f f i ci a l
po li cy
i s t ha t
pr o li f e r a t i o n
o f
we a po ns
o f m a s s d e s t r uct i o n "i s t he m a i n t hr e a t o f t he 21s t
ce nt ur y."34
T he co m m e r ci a l i nt e r e s t s i n
pla y
a r e s ubs t a nt i a l
e no ugh, ho we ve r ,
t o i nd uce Mo s co w t o s e t a
r e la t i ve ly hi gh
ba r f o r
pr o o f
o f t he
r e la t i o ns hi p's
r i s ks .
Nucle a r
t e chno lo gy
i s a
d e cli ni ng
a s s e t i nhe r i t e d f r o m t he S o vi e t Uni o n t ha t
f i gur e s i m po r t a nt ly
i n Rus s i a 's s m a ll s ha r e o f
hi gh-t e chno lo gy e xpo r t s .
Wi t h
a bund a nt
hyd r o ca r bo n-f ue le d
e le ct r i ca l
ge ne r a t i o n ca pa ci t y
a nd
d e cli ni ng
d e -
m a nd
co m pa r e d
t o S o vi e t
t i m e s ,
t he d o m e s t i c m a r ke t f o r nucle a r
t e chno lo gy
ha s d r i e d
up. Fo r e i gn
s a le s a r e vi t a l t o
s us t a i ni ng e s s e nt i a lly
ha lf o f t he a t o m i c
e ne r gy m i ni s t r y's
a ct i vi t i e s ,
a nd Ir a n i s a
m a jo r m a r ke t .35
Vi kt o r
Mi kha i lo v,
Rus s i a 's a t o m i c
e ne r gy
m i ni s t e r whe n t he
a gr e e m e nt
wi t h Ir a n wa s
i ni t i a t e d ,
s um m e d
up
t he m o t i va t i o n
s ucci nct ly:
"Wha t co uld Rus s i a ha ve
br o ught
o nt o
wo r ld m a r ke t s ? We
o nly
ha d o ne
s t r e ngt h:
o ur s ci e nt i f i c a nd t e chni ca l
po t e n-
t i a l. Our
o nly
cha nce wa s br o a d
co o pe r a t i o n
i n t he
s phe r e
o f
pe a ce f ul
nucle a r
e ne r gy."36
La r ge
s um s o f
m o ne y
f o r t he a t o m i c
e ne r gy m i ni s t r y
a nd a s s o ci a t e d f i r m s
a r e a t s t a ke .
Rus s i a 's
co ns t r uct i o n o f Ir a n's Bus he hr r e a ct o r a lo ne i s wo r t h
up
t o
$1 bi lli o n;
r e pr o ce s s i ng
f ue l i s a ls o
lucr a t i ve ;
a nd m o r e r e a ct o r
pr o je ct s
a r e
pla nne d .
And t he
Ir a ni a ns ,
Rus s i a ns
s t r e s s ,
pa y
ca s h. Bo o s t e r s o f t he s e d e a ls
cla i m t ha t t he t o t a l va lue o f t he
lo ng-t e r m r e la t i o ns hi p
co uld e xce e d
$8
bi lli o n
a nd i nvo lve o r d e r s f o r m o r e t ha n 300 Rus s i a n
co m pa ni e s .
Mo r e o ve r ,
s i gni f i ca nt
num be r s o f
hi gh-t e chno lo gy jo bs -m a ny
lo ca t e d i n
po li t i ca lly
cr u-
ci a l a nd
e co no m i ca lly s t r a ppe d r e gi o ns
o f Rus s i a -a r e
i nvo lve d .37
T he Rus s i a n
34.
T r a ns cr i pt
o f Put i n's BBC i nt e r vi e w o n
June 22, 2003,
r e pr i nt e d
i n
Jo hns o n's
Rus s i a
Li s t ,
No .
7236, June 24,
2003.
35. S e e Ce le s t e A.
Wa lla nd e r ,
"Rus s i a 's Int e r e s t i n
T r a d i ng
wi t h t he 'Axi s o f
Evi l,"'
t e s t i m o ny
gi ve n
a t "Rus s i a 's Po li ci e s t o wa r d t he Axi s o f Evi l:
Mo ne y
a nd
Ge o po li t i cs
i n
Ir a q
a nd Ir a n" he a r -
i ng,
H o us e Co m m i t t e e o n Int e r na t i o na l
Re la t i o ns ,
108t h
Co ng.,
2d
s e s s .,
Fe br ua r y
26,
2003. Fo r a n
o ve r vi e w o f t he
pr o ble m s f a ci ng
Rus s i a 's nucle a r
i nd us t r y
a nd i t s i nt e r e s t i n
f o r e i gn
s a le s ,
s e e
Igo r
Khr i puno v,
"MINAT OM: T i m e f o r Cr uci a l
De ci s i o ns ,"
Pr o ble m s
o f
Po s t -Co m m uni s m ,
Vo l.
48,
No . 4
(July-Augus t
2001),
pp.
49-59.
36.
Quo t e d
i n Vla d i m i r A. Or lo v a nd Ale xa nd e r
Vi nni ko v,
"T he Gr e a t
Gue s s i ng
Ga m e : Rus s i a a nd
t he Ir a ni a n Nucle a r
Is s ue ,"
Wa s hi ngt o n Qua r t e r ly,
Vo l.
28,
No . 2
(S pr i ng
2005),
p.
51.
37. S e e
Ana t o ly
And r e e v,
"Mi r nyi
At o m d li a Bus he r a " [Pe a ce f ul a t o m f o r
Bus he hr ], T r ud , De ce m -
be r
27, 2002,
p.
1. Fo r m o r e o n Rus s i a 's r o le i n
i n
As i a ,
s e e Ba t e s
Gi ll, "Pr o li f e r a t i o n,"
i n
Elli ngs
a nd
Fr i e d be r g,
wi t h
Wi lls ,
S t r a t e gi c
As i a ,
2003-04.
S e cur i t y
30:1 90
a t o m i c
e ne r gy m i ni s t r y
r e m a i ns a f o r m i d a ble i nt e r e s t
gr o up
i n Mo s co w
po li -
t i cs ,
a nd i t s
lo bbyi s t s
wo r k ha r d t o m a ke t he ca s e
publi cly
a nd i n Kr e m li n co r -
r i d o r s t ha t t he nucle a r s e ct o r i s cr i t i ca l t o Rus s i a 's m o d e r ni za t i o n d r i ve .38
Rus s i a 's s ubs t a nt i ve
be ha vi o r i s co ns i s t e nt wi t h t hi s
a na lys i s .
Whe n t he e co no m i c a nd
i nce nt i ve s f o r
e nga gi ng
Ir a n
a ppe a r
t o co nt r a d i ct Rus s i a 's
ge ne r a l a nt i pr o li f e r a t i o n
s t a nce ,
t he la t t e r wi ns . T he e x-
t e nt o f Ir a n's nucle a r
we a po ns -r e la t e d pr o gr a m s
ca m e t o t he f o r e i n
2002-03,
a nd
t he y
t ur ne d o ut t o ha ve be e n ba s e d no t o n t he Rus s i a n
pr o je ct
but o n
pur -
cha s e s f r o m t he t r a ns na t i o na l nucle a r
ne t wo r k r un f r o m Pa ki s t a n
by
Abd ul
Qa d e e r Kha n,
a s we ll a s
i nd i ge no us
e f f o r t s . In
r e s po ns e
t o t he ne w
e vi d e nce ,
Mo s co w r e ca li br a t e d i t s
po li cy
i n 2003. Rus s i a r e a f f i r m e d i t s co m -
m i t m e nt t o
no npr o li f e r a t i o n
a nd i t s d e s i r e t o s e e Ir a n s ubm i t t o r o bus t Int e r na -
t i o na l At o m i c
Ene r gy Age ncy
(IAEA)
i ns pe ct i o ns .
T o
a lla y po t e nt i a l
IAEA
co nce r ns
r e ga r d i ng
t he Bus he hr
r e a ct o r ,
Rus s i a s e cur e d a d e a l wi t h Ir a n o n r e -
t ur ni ng
a ll f ue l t o Rus s i a f o r
r e pr o ce s s i ng.
T he Rus s i a ns a ls o
pr e s s ur e d
T e hr a n
t o
s i gn
a nd
i m ple m e nt
t he IAEA a d d i t i o na l
pr o t o co l,
whi ch
i m po s e d
f ur t he r
r e s t r i ct i o ns a nd
o pe nne s s
o n t he Ir a ni a n
pr o gr a m . Ult i m a t e ly,
U.S . a nd i nt e r na -
t i o na l co nce r ns a bo ut t he
r i s ks o f Rus s i a 's nucle a r
pr o je ct
e a s e d ,
r e s ult i ng
i n d i m i ni s he d
d i plo m a t i c pr e s s ur e
o n Mo s co w.
Rus s i a 's co nt i nue d r e luct a nce t o
a d o pt
a n
Am e r i ca n-s t yle
ha r d li ne o n Ir a n's
nucle a r
pr o gr a m
i s t he r e s ult o f t he s a m e
r e gi o na l s e cur i t y,
a nd
e s pe ci a lly
e co -
no m i c,
i nce nt i ve s . In
e xpr e s s i ng
t he i r r e s e r va t i o ns
co nce r ni ng
f ur t he r
pr e s s ur -
i ng
o f
T e hr a n,
Pr e s i d e nt Put i n a nd o t he r
t o p go ve r nm e nt
o f f i ci a ls s t r e s s e d t he
f e a r t ha t i f Rus s i a ba cke d
a wa y
f r o m i t s co nt r a ct wi t h t he
Ir a ni a ns ,
Am e r i ca n
o r
Eur o pe a n co m pa ni e s m i ght
m o ve i n t o
e xplo i t
t he
o pe ni ng.
As Put i n
put
i t ,
"We wi ll
pr o t e s t a ga i ns t us i ng
t he t he m e o f nucle a r
we a po ns pr o li f e r a t i o n
a ga i ns t
Ir a n a s a n i ns t r um e nt f o r
f o r ci ng
Rus s i a n
co m pa ni e s
o ut o f t he Ir a ni a n
m a r ke t ."39 Mo s co w wa nt s
gua r a nt e e s
t ha t i nt e r na t i o na l e f f o r t s t o
co m pe l
Ir a n
t o
co m ply
wi t h IAEA s t r i ct ur e s d o no t co m e a t t he
e xpe ns e
o f Rus s i a 's co m -
m e r ci a l i nt e r e s t s . No r d o Rus s i a n
m a ke r s wa nt t o
f o r go
t he
d i p-
lo m a t i c d i vi d e nd s o f t he i r
po s i t i o n
a s t he
gr e a t po we r
wi t h t he be s t t i e s t o
T e hr a n,
unle s s Ir a ni a n r e ca lci t r a nce
vi s -a -vi s
t he IAEA f o r ce s t he m t o .
In
s ho r t ,
t he r e i s no ba s i s f o r
co nclud i ng
t ha t s o f t
ba la nci ng pla ys a ny
r o le i n
Rus s i a 's
wi t h Ir a n.
Re gi o na l s e cur i t y
co nce r ns
f i gur e i m po r t a nt ly
38.
Alt ho ugh
t he nucle a r i s s ue a t t r a ct s m o s t o f t he
a t t e nt i o n,
a s i m i la r co ns t e lla t i o n o f i nt e r e s t s li e s
be hi nd Rus s i a 's a r m s s a le s t o Ir a n. T o r
Bukkvo ll,
"Ar m i ng
t he
Aya t o lla hs :
Eco no m i c Lo bbi e s i n
Rus s i a 's Ir a n
Po li cy,"
Pr o ble m s
o f
Po s t -Co m m uni s m ,
Vo l.
49,
No . 6
(No ve m be r /De ce m be r , 2002),
pp.
29-41.
39.
Quo t e d
i n Or lo v a nd
Vi nni ko v,
"T he Gr e a t
Gue s s i ng
Ga m e ,"
p.
59.
H a r d T i m e s
191
i n t he
la r ge r d i plo m a t i c r e la t i o ns hi p,
whi le e co no m i c i nce nt i ve s a r e t he d r i ve r
be hi nd t he i r nucle a r
EU DEFENS E COOPERAT ION
S i nce t he t ur n o f t he
m i lle nni um ,
m e m be r s t a t e s ha ve m a d e co nce r t e d e f f o r t s
t o e nha nce t he
Eur o pe a n
Uni o n's
S e cur i t y
a nd De f e ns e
Po li cy
(ES DP),
i nclud -
i ng
t he
d e ve lo pm e nt
o f a
60,000-m a n
r a pi d
r e a ct i o n
f o r ce ,
a ne w
s e cur i t y
s t r a t -
e gy,
a d e f e ns e
a ge ncy
t o
s uppo r t
e f f o r t s t o
i m pr o ve m i li t a r y ca pa bi li t y,
a nd
m o s t
r e ce nt ly,
t he f o r m a t i o n o f
1,500-m a n
"ba t t le
gr o ups " ca pa ble
o f
hi ghe r
i n-
t e ns i t y o pe r a t i o ns .40 Eur o pe a n
o f f i ci a ls s o m e t i m e s
jus t i f y
t he s e e f f o r t s
by
s t r e s s i ng
t ha t
t he y
wi ll
la y
t he f o und a t i o n f o r a
la r ge r
EU r o le i n
r e gi o na l
a nd
glo ba l s e cur i t y,
t hus
i m pli ci t ly r e d uci ng
U.S . i nf lue nce . Fo r
m a ny a na lys t s ,
t hi s
i s a cle a r ca s e o f s o f t
ba la nci ng.41
T he
e vi d e nce , ho we ve r ,
d o e s no t
s uppo r t
s uch a n
i nt e r pr e t a t i o n.
Fa r f r o m
be i ng
a
r e s po ns e
t o U.S .
he ge m o ni c
d o m i na nce ,
t he
EU's
a t t e m pt s
t o i ncr e a s e i t s
m i li t a r y ca pa bi li t y
a r e s e e n
by Eur o pe a n a na lys t s
a nd
d e ci s i o nm a ke r s a s
ne ce s s a r y
t o d e a l wi t h t he
pr o s pe ct
o f t he Uni t e d S t a t e s ' d e -
cr e a s e d
pr e s e nce
i n
Eur o pe
a nd r e d uce d
wi lli ngne s s
t o s o lve
Ba lka ns -s t yle
pr o ble m s
f o r i t s
Eur o pe a n
a lli e s .42
Fo r
e xa m ple ,
i n
e xpla i ni ng
t he
o r i gi ns
o f t he
ES DP,
t he d i r e ct o r o f t he
Eur o pe a n
Uni o n's Ins t i t ut e f o r
S e cur i t y
S t ud i e s ,
Ni co le
Gne s o t t o ,
no t e s t ha t "be ca us e Am e r i ca n i nvo lve m e nt i n cr i s e s t ha t we r e
no t vi t a l f o r Am e r i ca wa s no
lo nge r gua r a nt e e d ,...
t he
Eur o pe a ns
ha d t o o r -
ga ni ze
t he m s e lve s t o a s s um e t he i r s ha r e o f
r e s po ns i bi li t y
i n cr i s i s
m a na ge m e nt
a nd ,
i n
d o i ng
s o ,
m a i nt a i n o r e ve n e nha nce t he Uni t e d S t a t e s ' i nt e r e s t wi t hi n
t he Alli a nce ."43 Fo r
m a ny
o f t he
ke y
m e m be r
go ve r nm e nt s , no t a bly
t he Uni t e d
Ki ngd o m ,
t he co r r o s i ve e f f e ct s o f
Eur o pe a n m i li t a r y
we a kne s s o n t he t r a ns a t -
la nt i c a lli a nce
pr o vi d e d
t he
ke y i m pe t us
f o r
e nha nci ng
EU
Mo s t
a na lys t s
t hus co ncur t ha t EU d e f e ns e
co o pe r a t i o n
ca n
go
f o r wa r d
o nly
i f i t i s
s e e n a s
co m ple m e nt a r y
t o t he a lli a nce wi t h t he Uni t e d S t a t e s . T ha t
i s ,
s o m e d e -
gr e e
o f U.S .
s uppo r t
i s a
ne ce s s a r y
co nd i t i o n o f t he ES DP's f ur t he r
pr o gr e s s .
In-
d e e d ,
t he f o r ce s t ha t t he
Eur o pe a ns
a r e
a ct ua lly s e e ki ng
t o cr e a t e
co m ple m e nt ,
40. Fo r a
co m pr e he ns i ve a na lys i s ,
s e e Ni co le
Gne s o t t o , e d .,
EU
S e cur i t y
a nd
De f e nce Po li cy:
T he Fi r s t
Fi ve Ye a r s
(1999-2004), (Pa r i s :
Eur o pe a n
Uni o n Ins t i t ut e f o r
S e cur i t y
S t ud i e s , 2005).
41.
S e e ,
f o r
e xa m ple ,
Ro be r t
J. Ar t ,
"Eur o pe H e d ge s
It s
S e cur i t y
Be t s ,"
i n
Pa ul, Wi r t z,
a nd
Fo r t m a nn,
Ba la nce
o f
Po we r
Re vi s i t e d ; Wa lt ,
"Ca n t he Uni t e d S t a t e s Be
Ba la nce d ?"; Jo f f e ,
"De f yi ng
H i s t o r y
a nd
T he o r y";
a nd
La yne ,
"Am e r i ca a s
Eur o pe a n H e ge m o n."
42.
S e e ,
f o r
e xa m ple ,
Cha r le s A.
Kupcha n,
T he End
o f
t he Am e r i ca n Er a : U.S .
Fo r e i gn Po li cy
a nd t he
Ge o po li t i cs o f
t he
T we nt y-f i r s t Ce nt ur y
(Ne w Yo r k: Alf r e d A.
Kno pf ,
2002).
43. Ni co le Gne s o t t o "ES DP: Re s ult s a nd
Pr o s pe ct s ,"
i n
Gne s o t t o ,
EU
S e cur i t y
a nd
De f e nce Po li cy,
p.
25.
S e cur i t y
30:1 92
r a t he r t ha n
co m pe t e
wi t h,
U.S .
ca pa bi li t i e s
be ca us e
t he y pr o vi d e
a d d i t i o na l
uni t s f o r
d e a li ng
wi t h
Ba lka ns -s t yle co nt i nge nci e s
o r
pe a ce ke e pi ng
m i s s i o ns
a br o a d .
Mo r e o ve r ,
t he EU wi ll be una ble t o
m e a s ur a bly
na r r o w t he o ve r a ll
ga p
i n
m i li t a r y po we r
vi s -a -vi s
t he Uni t e d S t a t e s i n t he f o r e s e e a ble f ut ur e .
Only
s e ve n
o f t he
1,500-m a n
ba t t le
gr o ups -i nt e nd e d
f o r s m a lle r
s t a bi li t y o pe r a t i o ns
a lo ng
t he li ne s o f t he EU's
Ope r a t i o n
Ar t e m i s i n t he
Co ngo -a r e pr o je ct e d
f o r
2007. Af t e r s i x
ye a r s
o f
e f f o r t ,
t he
60,000-m a n
r a pi d
r e a ct i o n f o r ce s t i ll f a ce s
m a jo r
hur d le s : a n
i nd e pe nd e nt
t a s k f o r ce o f t he EU's Ins t i t ut e f o r
S e cur i t y
S t ud i e s i d e nt i f i e s
e i ght ke y s t r a t e gi c
d e f i ci e nci e s ,
r a ngi ng
f r o m
d e plo ya bi li t y
a nd
s us t a i na bi li t y
t o
i nt e r o pe r a bi li t y
a nd
s t r a t e gi c d e ci s i o nm a ki ng.44
Whe n
t hi s f o r ce wi ll be a ble t o
o pe r a t e i nd e pe nd e nt ly
f r o m U.S .
t r a ns po r t ,
co m m uni -
ca t i o ns ,
a nd o t he r f o r m s o f
lo gi s t i ca l s uppo r t
r e m a i ns uncle a r . Bo t h t he
r a pi d
r e a ct i o n f o r ce a nd t he ba t t le
gr o ups
a r e no t
s t a nd i ng
f o r ce s but r a t he r
po o ls
o f
na t i o na l uni t s o n whi ch t he EU ca n d r a w i f t he Co unci l d e ci d e s
una ni m o us ly
t o us e
m i li t a r y
f o r ce . And a s Ro be r t
Co o pe r po i nt s
o ut ,
"T he r e i s no m e m be r
s t a t e f o r whi ch EDS P i s ce nt r a l t o i t s
s e cur i t y po li cy."45
Eve n i f a ll
cur r e nt ly
e nvi s i o ne d f o r ce s m a t e r i a li ze
a cco r d i ng
t o
pla n, t he y
wi ll d o li t t le t o cr e a t e
a ny
s e r i o us
a bi li t y
t o co ns t r a i n t he Uni t e d S t a t e s .
Ind e e d ,
ge ne r a t i ng
a us a ble f o r ce f o r
pe a ce
e nf o r ce m e nt
m a y
wo r k
a ga i ns t
t he d e ve l-
o pm e nt
o f s uch a
po t e nt i a l
che ck o n U.S .
po we r .
Unle s s
Eur o pe a ns
a s s um e a
m uch
gr e a t e r wi lli ngne s s
t o
pur s ue hi ghe r
d e f e ns e
e xpe nd i t ur e s ,
i nve s t m e nt s
t o wa r d
m a ki ng
t he
r a pi d
r e a ct i o n
co nt i nge nt
i nt o a cr e d i ble f o r ce wi ll ha ve t o
co m e a t t he
e xpe ns e
o f
d e ve lo pi ng
a d va nce d
s ys t e m s ca pa ble
o f
co m pe t i ng
wi t h o r
d i s pla ci ng
t ho s e f i e ld e d
by
U.S . f o r ce s . In t he
o pi ni o n
o f m o s t
m i li t a r y
a na lys t s
f a m i li a r wi t h
d e ve lo pm e nt s
o n bo t h s i d e s o f t he
At la nt i c,
t he m o s t
li ke ly t r a je ct o r y-e ve n
i f a ll
go e s
we ll f o r t he EU's cur r e nt
pla ns -i s
a wi d e n-
i ng
o f t he
ga p
i n
hi gh-i nt e ns i t y m i li t a r y ca pa bi li t i e s
i n f a vo r o f t he Uni t e d
S t a t e s .46
Ove r t he
pa s t
t hr e e
d e ca d e s ,
t he Uni t e d S t a t e s ha s
s pe nt
t hr e e t i m e s
44. Ni co le Gne s o t t o (cha i r ) a nd
Je a n-Yve s
H a i ne
(r a ppo r t e ur ), Eur o pe a n De f e nce :
A
Pr o po s a l f o r
a
Whi t e
Pa pe r
(Pa r i s :
Eur o pe a n
Uni o n Ins t i t ut e f o r
S e cur i t y
S t ud i e s , 2004).
An e a r li e r EU
r e po r t
no t e d m o r e t ha n
f o r t y t e chno lo gi ca l
s ho r t f a lls
co ns t r a i ni ng
t he f o r ce . S e e Ale xa nd e r
Ni co ll,
"S pe nd i ng
Ca ll f o r EU
Ra pi d
Re a ct i o n
Fo r ce ,
Fi na nci a l
T i m e s ,
Fe br ua r y
8, 2002;
a nd t he d i s cus s i o n
i n Et ha n B.
Ka ps t e i n,
"Alli e s a nd
Ar m a m e nt s ," S ur vi va l,
Vo l.
44,
No . 2
(S um m e r 2002),
pp.
141-
160.
45.
Quo t e d
i n
Gne s o t t o , EU
S e cur i t y
a nd
De f e nce Po li cy, p.
189.
46.
S e e ,
f o r
e xa m ple ,
H a ns -Chr i s t i a n
H a gm a n,
"EU Cr i s i s
Ma na ge m e nt Ca pa bi li t i e s ," pa pe r
d e li v-
e r e d a t t he co nf e r e nce "T he
Eur o pe a n
Uni o n-It s Ro le a nd Po we r i n t he
Em e r gi ng
S ys t e m ,"
Wo o d r o w Wi ls o n S cho o l o f Publi c a nd Int e r na t i o na l
Af f a i r s ,
Pr i nce t o n
Uni ve r s i t y,
Oct o -
be r
3-5, 2003;
a nd
Juli a n Li nd le y-Fr e nch,
"In t he S ha d o w o f Lo ca r no ?
Why Eur o pe a n
De f e ns e Is
Fa i li ng,"
Af f a i r s ,
Vo l.
78,
No . 4 (Oct o be r 2002),
pp.
789-811.
H a r d T i m e s
93
m o r e t ha n a ll o f t he EU m e m be r s co m bi ne d o n
m i li t a r y
r e s e a r ch a nd
d e ve lo p-
m e nt . T hi s
ga p
wi ll a f f e ct t he
d e ve lo pm e nt
o f a s s e t s a nd
ca pa bi li t i e s
f o r d e -
ca d e s t o co m e .
H e nce ,
f a r f r o m
s a cr i f i ci ng
o t he r
pr e f e r e nce s
t o cr e a t e
ca pa bi li t i e s
t ha t
m i ght
co ns t r a i n t he Uni t e d
S t a t e s ,
t he
Eur o pe a ns m a y
be
s a cr i f i ci ng
li m i t e d r e s o ur ce s
t ha t co uld
po t e nt i a lly
be us e f ul f o r
co unt e r i ng
U.S .
po we r
t o cr e a t e
ca pa bi li t i e s
t ha t
la r ge ly co m ple m e nt
t ho s e o f t he Uni t e d
S t a t e s .47
Why
t he n d o le a d e r s
i n
Eur o pe
s o m e t i m e s us e
ba la nci ng la ngua ge
whe n
d e s cr i bi ng
t he s e ne w
f o r ce s ? T o
be gi n,
t he
o ve r whe lm i ng m a jo r i t y
o f t he r he t o r i c i s a bo ut
bui ld i ng
up ca pa bi li t i e s
f o r r e a s o ns o t he r t ha n
ba la nci ng
t he Uni t e d
S t a t e s ; i nd e e d ,
m uch o f t hi s r he t o r i c i s a bo ut
t r yi ng
t o be a be t t e r
pa r t ne r
o f t he Uni t e d
S t a t e s ,
no t a
co m pe t i t o r .
S o m e t i m e s , ho we ve r ,
po li t i ci a ns
d o us e
t o d e s cr i be t he i r
a i m s f o r EU
m i li t a r y s t r e ngt he ni ng,
i n
pa r t
be ca us e
i ncr e a s i ng
EU
m i li t a r y
ca -
pa bi li t i e s
i nvo lve s f i na nci a l a nd o t he r co s t s t ha t
m a ny
m e m be r s t a t e s s e e m
ve r y
r e luct a nt t o be a r . T o t he e xt e nt t ha t t hi s f o r ce i s
po r t r a ye d
a s a m e a ns o f
che cki ng
U.S .
po we r ,
s o m e o f t hi s he s i t a nce
m a y
be
r e d uce d ,
i f
o nly
be ca us e
a d o pt i ng
a m o r e
i nd e pe nd e nt
EU
i s
po pula r a m o ng
t he
publi c
i n
Eur o pe . Pa yi ng
f o r s uch
i nd e pe nd e nce ,
ho we ve r ,
i s
unpo pula r
i n
Eur o pe ,
whi ch i s
why
EU
a ggr e ga t e
d e f e ns e
s pe nd i ng
ha s
s t e a d i ly
d e cli ne d e ve n a s
Eur o pe a n po li t i ci a ns '
r he t o r i c a bo ut d e f e ns e ha s e s ca la t e d . T he r e s ult i s a cr e -
s ce nd o o f ca lls f o r e nha nce d EU
m i li t a r y ca pa bi li t i e s
a nd a n
a lpha be t s o up
o f
ne w
o r ga ni za t i o na l
i ni t i a t i ve s but
r e la t i ve ly
li m i t e d
o pe r a t i o na l o ut put
o n t he
gr o und .
In
s um ,
t he e vi d e nce i nd i ca t e s t ha t
ne e d s ,
no t s o f t ba la nc-
i ng,
a r e t he
pr i nci pa l
d r i ve r o f EU d e f e ns e
T o t hi s
po i nt ,
t he r e i s
a ls o no i nd i ca t i o n o f
Eur o pe a n wi lli ngne s s
t o
pa y
t he e co no m i c co s t s t o t a ke
t he
ne ce s s a r y s t e ps
t o
d e ve lo p m i li t a r y ca pa bi li t i e s
t ha t co uld
m e a ni ngf ully
r e -
d uce t he
ga p
wi t h t he Uni t e d S t a t e s .
OPPOS IT ION T O T H E
IRAQ
WAR
Unli ke Rus s i a 's As i a n
pa r t ne r s hi ps , o ppo s i t i o n
t o t he U.S . i nva s i o n o f
Ir a q
d i d
no t e nt a i l m e a s ur a ble s hi f t s i n ha r d
po we r .
It no ne t he le s s s e e m e d t a i lo r -m a d e
f o r t he
s o f t -ba la nci ng a r gum e nt .
On a
po li cy
i t d e cla r e d vi t a l t o i t s na t i o na l s e -
cur i t y,
t he Uni t e d S t a t e s f a ce d
o ppo s i t i o n
f r o m
ke y
a lli e s . T he
o ppo s i t i o n
wa s
47. Fo r a n
a na lys i s
t ha t
ca pt ur e s
t hi s
t r a d e -o f f ,
s e e Ba s t i a n
Gi e ge r i ch
a nd Wi lli a m
Wa lla ce ,
"No t
S uch a S o f t Po we r : T he Ext e r na l
De plo ym e nt
o f
Eur o pe a n
Fo r ce s ," S ur vi va l,
Vo l.
46,
No . 2
(S um -
m e r
2004),
pp.
163-182.
S e cur i t y
30:1
194
no t
ha pha za r d
but co o r d i na t e d i n e la bo r a t e
d i plo m a t i c e xcha nge s .
And t he
le a d e r s o f
Fr a nce ,
t he
li nchpi n
o f t he "co a li t i o n o f t he
unwi lli ng,"
m a d e a
po i nt
o f
d e s cr i bi ng
t he i r
po li cy
a s
pa r t
o f a n o ve r a ll
pr e f e r e nce
f o r a
m ult i po la r
wo r ld . No t
s ur pr i s i ngly,
s uch e f f o r t s
pr o pe lle d
t he
t o
t he f o r e f r o nt .48
Ne ve r t he le s s ,
t hi s
a r gum e nt d r a m a t i ca lly o ve r s i m pli f i e s
a nd
m i s r e pr e s e nt s
wha t o ccur r e d . S o f t
ba la nci ng pla ye d
no d i s ce r na ble r o le f o r s o m e o f t he
pr i n-
ci pa l
a ct o r s i n t he d r a m a . Fo r
o t he r s ,
s t r a t e gi c
ca lcula t i o ns t ha t
s upe r f i ci a lly
r e -
s e m ble s o f t
ba la nci ng,
but
a ct ua lly
s t e m f r o m a d i f f e r e nt
lo gi c,
i nt e r a ct e d i n
co m ple x wa ys
wi t h o t he r i nce nt i ve s t ha t a ls o
pus he d s t r o ngly
t o wa r d co n-
s t r a i ni ng
t he Uni t e d S t a t e s . Eve n a
ge ne r o us r e nd e r i ng
o f t he
a r -
gum e nt
wo uld a cco r d i t a t be s t a m i no r
r o le .49
GERMANY AND T URKEY. A ce nt r a l li nk i n t he
co m ple x
cha i n o f e ve nt s t ha t
e nd e d i n t he f a i lur e o f t he U.S .
a t t e m pt
t o a chi e ve a s e co nd UN
S e cur i t y
Co un-
ci l r e s o lut i o n
a ut ho r i zi ng
t he i nva s i o n o f
Ir a q
wa s
Ge r m a ny's unco m pr o m i s -
i ng o ppo s i t i o n
t o U.S .
po li cy
a nd ,
a s a
co ns e que nce ,
a br i e f but d r a m a t i c s hi f t
i n
po s t -Co ld
Wa r Fr a nco -Ge r m a n r e la t i o ns . Fo r t he f i r s t t i m e i n m o r e t ha n a
d e ca d e ,
Be r li n wa s t he
s uppli ca nt
i n t he
r e la t i o ns hi p,
whi ch
pr e s e nt e d
Pa r i s
wi t h a n a t t r a ct i ve
o ppo r t uni t y
t o
r e ga i n
i t s s t a t us a s t he EU's d r i ve r
jus t
a s i t
wa s
e xpa nd i ng
t o i nclud e a r a f t o f ne w Ce nt r a l
Eur o pe a n
m e m be r s t a t e s .50
T hi s s hi f t
o r i gi na t e d
i n Ge r m a n d o m e s t i c
po li t i cs .
T o be
s ur e ,
Cha nce llo r
S chr 6d e r
e xpr e s s e d
d o ubt s a bo ut t he wi s d o m o f
i nva d i ng Ir a q lo ng
be f o r e
Ge r m a ny's
e le ct i o n
ca m pa i gn go t
und e r
wa y
i n t he s um m e r o f 2002. But hi s
ne e d t o
r e ca pt ur e
e le m e nt s o f hi s
po li t i ca l
ba s e s o o n
po i nt e d i r r e s i s t i bly
t o -
wa r d
t a ki ng
a n
e s pe ci a lly s t r o ng
s t a nd o n t he i s s ue .
Runni ng
o n a d i s m a l e co -
no m i c r e co r d a nd
ha vi ng
a li e na t e d hi s m o r e
le f t -wi ng s uppo r t e r s
wi t h
t o ugh
e co no m i c
pr o po s a ls
a nd a s e r i e s o f co nt r o ve r s i a l ne w Ge r m a n
m i li t a r y
co m -
48.
S e e ,
f o r
e xa m ple ,
Ro be r t
Pa pe ,
"We lco m e t o t he Er a o f 'S o f t
Ba la nci ng,"'
Bo s t o n
Glo be ,
Ma r ch
23, 2003,
p.
H 1;
a nd
Jo s e ph
S .
Nye ,
"T he UN Is
Ri ght
f o r t he
Jo b: Re bui ld i ng Ir a q II,"
H e r a ld
T r i bune ,
Apr i l
14, 2003,
p.
10.
49. In
r e co ns t r uct i ng
i nt e r -a lli e d
d i s put e s
o ve r
Ir a q,
t he be s t e xt a nt a cco unt i s
Phi li p
H . Go r d o n
a nd
Je r e m y S ha pi r o ,
Alli e s a t Wa r :
Am e r i ca ,
Eur o pe ,
a nd t he Cr i s i s o ve r
Ir a q
(Ne w Yo r k:
McGr a w-H i ll,
2004). Ot he r a cco unt s a nd
chr o no lo gi e s
t ha t we r e cr i t i ca l i n
co ns t r uct i ng
t hi s ca s e
s t ud y
i nclud e
Eli za be t h
Po nd ,
Fr i e nd ly
Fi r e : T he Ne a r -De a t h
o f
t he T r a ns a t la nt i c Alli a nce
(Wa s hi ngt o n,
D.C.:
Br o o ki ngs
a nd
Eur o pe a n
Uni o n S t ud i e s
As s o ci a t i o n, 2003);
Gus t a v Li nd s t r o m a nd Bur kha r d t
S chm i d t , e d s .,
"One Ye a r On: Le s s o ns f r o m
Ir a q,"
Cha lli o t
Pa pe r
No . 68 (Br us s e ls : EU Ins t i t ut e f o r
S e cur i t y
S t ud i e s ,
Ma r ch
2004); Jo hn Pe t e r s o n,
"Eur o pe ,
Am e r i ca ,
Ir a q:
Wo r s t
Eve r ,
Eve r
Wo r s e ni ng?" Jo ur na l o f
Co m m o n Ma r ke t
S t ud i e s ,
Vo l.
42,
No . S 1
(S e pt e m be r
2004),
pp.
9-26;
Da vi d
Alle n a nd Mi cha e l
S m i t h,
"Ext e r na l
Po li cy De ve lo pm e nt s ," Jo ur na l o f
Co m m o n Ma r ke t
S t ud i e s ,
Vo l.
42,
No . S 1
(S e pt e m be r
2004),
pp.
95-112;
a nd "T he Di vi d e d
We s t ,"
pt s .
1-3,
Fi na nci a l
T i m e s ,
Ma y
27-30,
2003.
50.
Po nd ,
Fr i e nd ly
Fi r e ,
cha p.
3.
H a r d T i m e s
95
m i t m e nt s
a br o a d ,
S chr d d e r wa s
t r a i li ng
i n t he
po lls
a nd
f a ci ng
ne a r -ce r t a i n d e -
f e a t a s t he
po li t i ca l
s e a s o n
be ga n
t o
r a m p up.
H i s
po li t i ca l
a d vi s e r s t o ld hi m
t ha t hi s r e -e le ct i o n
hi nge d
o n
r e ca pt ur i ng
t wo
ke y le f t -wi ng
co ns t i t ue nci e s ,
bo t h o f whi ch ha d
s t r o ng, lo ng-s t a nd i ng
a nt i wa r
pr e f e r e nce s :
co r e S o ci a l De m -
o cr a t i c
Pa r t y
(S PD) a ct i vi s t s ,
a nd
le f t -wi ng
vo t e r s i n Ea s t e r n
Ge r m a ny
who
we r e
d e f e ct i ng
t o t he
pa ci f i s t
a nd a nt i -Am e r i ca n
Pa r t y
o f De m o cr a t i c S o ci a li s m
(t he
s ucce s s o r
pa r t y
o f t he f o r m e r Co m m uni s t s ).51
T he n ca m e wha t o ne
S chr 6d e r
o pe r a t i ve
ca lle d "t he m i r a cle " o f Vi ce Pr e s i -
d e nt Di ck
Che ne y's Augus t
26
s pe e ch ca lli ng
f o r
pr e ve nt i ve
wa r i n
Ir a q
a nd
que s t i o ni ng
a UN-ba s e d
a ppr o a ch.52
T he
s pe e ch ge ne r a t e d i nt e ns e ly ne ga t i ve
r e a ct i o ns
t hr o ugho ut Eur o pe
a nd
ga ve
t he
S chr 6d e r
t e a m a cha nce t o r e la unch
i t s r e -e le ct i o n bi d o n a n
unco m pr o m i s i ng
a nt i wa r
pla t f o r m .
T he
ca m pa i gn's
t e no r a nd
d yna m i c cha nge d i m m e d i a t e ly.
As a nt i wa r
pa s s i o ns
m o unt e d ,
e co -
no m i c
i s s ue s ,
o n whi ch t he Chr i s t i a n De m o cr a t s ' Ed m und S t o i be r ha d be e n
ca m pa i gni ng e f f e ct i ve ly,
r e ce d e d i nt o t he
ba ckgr o und .
Po li t i ca l i nce nt i ve s
pus he d S chr 6d e r
t o wa r d a n
i ncr e a s i ngly unco m pr o m s i ng
a nt i wa r s t a nd . Eve n
a f t e r Pr e s i d e nt
Ge o r ge
W. Bus h m o ve d
a wa y
f r o m
Che ne y's
i ni t i a l s t a nce a nd
t o o k t he
Ir a q
m a t t e r t o t he
UN,
S chr 6d e r
a d o pt e d
a ha r d -li ne
po s i t i o n,
d e cla r -
i ng
hi s r e f us a l t o
s uppo r t
t he us e o f f o r ce e ve n i f s a nct i o ne d
by
t he
S e cur i t y
Co unci l. Ye t a s s t r i d e nt a s he be ca m e o n
Ir a q,
S chr 6d e r
ne ve r
e xpr e s s e d
hi s
o p-
po s i t i o n
i n
ba la nci ng
o r
m ult i po la r
t e r m s ,
s t i cki ng
t o a
s cr i pt
o f
po li cy o ppo s i -
t i o n o n
s t r a t e gi c gr o und s
co m bi ne d wi t h a
ge ne r a l po s t ur e
a s a
pr i nci ple d
s o ci a li s t
he r o i ca lly s t a nd i ng up
t o a U.S .
pr e s i d e nt
who e m bo d i e s
e ve r yt hi ng
Ge r m a n le f t i s t s lo a t he ."5 Eve n
s o ,
i m po r t a nt
s e ct o r s o f t he
s o ci a li s t -le a ni ng
e li t e a nd
m e d i a ,
t o
s a y no t hi ng
o f s wa t he s o f m o r e ce nt r i s t S PD
vo t e r s ,
we r e
unco m f o r t a ble wi t h
S chr 6d e r 's
s t a nce ,
pr e f e r r i ng
a m o r e s t a t e s m a nli ke
po s i -
t i o n t ha t
uphe ld
t he
ce nt r a li t y
o f t he
UN.54
A s e co nd li nk i n t he
s t o r y
o f
co ns t r a i ni ng
t he Uni t e d S t a t e s o n
Ir a q
wa s T ur -
ke y's
d e ci s i o n no t t o
pe r m i t
t he U.S .
m i li t a r y
t o us e i t s
t e r r i t o r y
f o r a n a s s a ult
o n S a d d a m H us s e i n's
a r m y.
In
hi nd s i ght ,
t he T ur ki s h
go ve r nm e nt 's
m o ve d i d
no t und e r m i ne t he i nva s i o n's
o pe r a t i o na l
e f f e ct i ve ne s s ,
but t hi s wa s no t cle a r
a t t he
t i m e ,
a nd i t
m a y
ha ve a f f e ct e d t he r e s o lve o f Fr a nce a nd o t he r s i n t he i r
51. Ma r t i n
Wa lke r ,
"T he Wi nt e r o f
Ge r m a ny's
Di s co nt e nt ,"
Wo r ld
Po li cy Jo ur na l,
Vo l.
19,
No . 4
(Wi nt e r 2002/2003),
p.
37.
52. Ibi d .
53.
S e e ,
f o r
e xa m ple , Je f f r e y
H e r f ,
"T he Pe r f e ct S t o r m a nd Af t e r :
Re t r o s pe ct
a nd
Pr o s pe ct
f o r
Am e r i ca n-Ge r m a n Re la t i o ns ,"
Am e r i ca n Ins t i t ut e f o r
Co nt e m po r a r y
Ge r m a n
S t ud i e s ,
July
29,
2004,
ht t p://www.a i cgs .o r g/c/he r f c.s ht m l.
54.
Po nd ,
Fr i e nd ly
Fi r e ,
cha p.
3.
S e cur i t y
30:1
196
i nt e r a ct i o ns wi t h t he Bus h a d m i ni s t r a t i o n.
Acco r d i ngly, m a ny a na lys t s
vi e w
t he T ur ks ' d e ci s i o n a s a n
e xa m ple
o f s o f t
ba la nci ng.55
In t hi s
ca s e , ho we ve r ,
t he
d o m e s t i c
po li t i ca l d yna m i c
wa s e ve n m o r e d o m i na nt t ha n i n
Ge r m a ny,
f o r i t
o ve r whe lm e d a
s t r a t e gi c
d e ci s i o n t o
s uppo r t
t he Uni t e d S t a t e s . Of
ke y i m po r -
t a nce he r e wa s
T ur ke y's
ba le f ul
e xpe r i e nce
o f t he 1990-91 Pe r s i a n Gulf
Wa r ,
whi ch wa s
wi d e ly pe r ce i ve d
a s a n e co no m i c d i s a s t e r f o r t he T ur ks . Als o
s i gni f i ca nt
wa s
T ur ke y's lo ng-s t a nd i ng
co nce r n t ha t
ups e t t i ng
t he s t a t us
quo
i n
Ir a q
co uld a lt e r t he
po li t i ca l e qua t i o n r e ga r d i ng
t he
Ir a qi
Kur d s ,
who s e i nd e -
pe nd e nce m i ght
i nci t e co -na t i o na ls i n
T ur ke y
i t s e lf . T he s e t wo hi s t o r i ca l
le ga -
ci e s
he lp
t o
e xpla i n why a ny
T ur ki s h
go ve r nm e nt
wo uld ha ve ha d t o
ba r ga i n
ha r d f o r
s t r o ng gua r a nt e e s
f r o m t he Uni t e d S t a t e s t o r e a s s ur e a
publi c
t ha t wa s
e s pe ci a lly s ke pt i ca l
a bo ut t he
co ns e que nce s
o f a no t he r wa r i n t he
r e gi o n.
Ne -
go t i a t i o ns
wi t h
T ur ke y
f o llo we d t hr e e t r a cks :
po li t i ca l (r e ga r d i ng
t he
d e gr e e
o f
a ut o no m y
f o r
Ir a qi
Kur d s a nd t he f a t e o f
Ir a qi s
o f T ur ki s h
d e s ce nt );
m i li t a r y
(co nce r ni ng
whe r e T ur ki s h
t r o o ps
co uld be
d e plo ye d
i n
Ir a q);
a nd e co no m i c
(co m pe ns a t i o n
f o r t he co s t s t ha t a wa r wo uld
i m po s e
o n
T ur ke y).
Alt ho ugh
t he d e t a i ls o f t he e co no m i c
pa cka ge
we r e ne ve r
f ully
wo r ke d
o ut ,
Pr i m e Mi ni s t e r
T a yyi p Er d o ga n
a nd t he
le a d e r s hi p
o f hi s Is la m i s t
Jus t i ce
a nd
De ve lo pm e nt Pa r t y ult i m a t e ly s uppo r t e d
a t hr e e -t r a ck d e a l t o a llo w t he
Uni t e d S t a t e s t o us e
T ur ke y
a s a
s t a gi ng gr o und
f o r t he i nva s i o n o f
Ir a q
a nd
s ubm i t t e d a r e s o lut i o n t o
pa r li a m e nt a s ki ng
t he i r m e m be r s t o
s uppo r t
i t .56
Er d o ga n
a nd t he
pa r t y le a d e r s hi p
ca lcula t e d t ha t
s uppo r t i ng
t he Bus h a d m i n-
i s t r a t i o n wo uld be s t s e cur e
T ur ke y's
i nt e r e s t s i n
po s t wa r Ir a q
whi le m a xi m i z-
i ng
t he e co no m i c be ne f i t s . Bo t h t he
po we r f ul
T ur ki s h
m i li t a r y
a nd t he
o ppo s i t i o n Re publi ca n Pe o ple 's Pa r t y,
ho we ve r ,
o pt e d
t o f r e e r i d e a nd le t t he
r uli ng pa r t y
s uf f e r t he d o m e s t i c
po li t i ca l
co s t s o f
pus hi ng t hr o ugh
t he m e a s -
ur e ,
a s s um i ng,
a s d i d
Er d o ga n
a nd m o s t
a na lys t s ,
t ha t i t wo uld
pa s s .
In t he
e ve nt ,
i t d i d wi n a
m a jo r i t y
und e r s t a nd a r d r ule s . But und e r T ur ki s h
pa r li a -
m e nt a r y
r ule s ,
t he ni ne t e e n a bs t e nt i o ns m e a nt t ha t t he r e s o lut i o n f a i le d
by
t hr e e vo t e s t o wi n t he
ne ce s s a r y s i m ple m a jo r i t y
o f t ho s e
pr e s e nt .
Ne ws a c-
co unt s no t e t ha t s o m e
pa r li a m e nt a r i a ns ' i gno r a nce
o f t hi s r ule
m a y
ha ve a f -
f e ct e d t he i r
vo t e s .57 Im m e d i a t e ly
t he r e a f t e r ,
t o p ge ne r a ls
who ha d
pr e vi o us ly
o pt e d
t o f r e e r i d e
s o ught
t o r e ve r s e t he d e ci s i o n.
By
t he t i m e t he s e m a chi na -
55. S e e
Pa pe ,
"S o f t
Ba la nci ng";
a nd
Wa lt ,
56. Mus t a f a
Ki ba r o glu, "T ur ke y S a ys
No ,"
Bulle t i n
o f
t he At o m i c
S ci e nt i s t s ,
Vo l.
59,
No . 4
(July/
Augus t
2003),
pp.
22-26.
57. "A Pi vo t a l Na t i o n Go e s Int o a
S pi n,"
Eco no m i s t ,
Ma r ch
8, 2003,
p.
41. S e e a ls o Go r d o n a nd
S ha pi r o ,
Alli e s a t Wa r .
H a r d T i m e s
197
t i o ns
go t
und e r
wa y,
ho we ve r ,
t he
r a pi d
a d va nce o f U.S . a nd Br i t i s h f o r ce s i n
Ir a q r a d i ca lly
d e va lue d t he
i m po r t a nce
o f t he T ur ki s h i nva s i o n r o ut e .
In
s um ,
t he be ha vi o r o f bo t h
Ge r m a ny
a nd
T ur ke y
ca n be t r a ce d t o d o m e s t i c
po li t i ca l
i nce nt i ve s unr e la t e d t o t he co nce nt r a t i o n o f
po we r
i n t he Uni t e d
S t a t e s . Rus s i a a nd Fr a nce a r e f a r m o r e
co m ple x
a ct o r s i n t hi s ca s e be ca us e bo t h
ha d s t a t e d
pr e f e r e nce s
f o r
m ult i po la r i t y, ge ne r a l po li ci e s
o f
but t r e s s i ng
t he r o le
o f t he UN
S e cur i t y
Co unci l a nd t hus t he
ba r ga i ni ng
va lue o f t he i r ve t o
po we r
i n t ha t
bo d y,
e co no m i c i nt e r e s t s i n
pla y
i n
Ir a q, s t r o ng
d o m e s t i c i nce nt i ve s f o r
s t a nd i ng up
t o
Wa s hi ngt o n,
a nd s i nce r e
po li cy
d i f f e r e nce s wi t h t he Uni t e d
S t a t e s o ve r co s t s a nd be ne f i t s o f a wa r i n
Ir a q
a nd i t s r e la t i o n t o t he wa r o n t e r -
r o r i s m . T he i nt e r a ct i o n
a m o ng
t he s e
d yna m i cs
wa s
co m pli ca t e d .
H o w d i d s o f t
ba la nci ng
f i t i nt o t hi s m o s a i c?
RUS S IA. In
Mo s co w
Pr e s i d e nt Put i n a nd hi s
t o p f o r e i gn po li cy
a i d e s we r e
r e luct a nt t o t a ke t he le a d i n
a ny
co ns t r a i nt -co a li t i o n
a ga i ns t
t he Bus h a d m i ni s -
t r a t i o n,
ha vi ng r e ce nt ly
r e o r i e nt e d Rus s i a 's
gr a nd s t r a t e gy
t o wa r d
pr a g-
m a t i c
co o pe r a t i o n
S t a t e s .58
At t he s a m e
t i m e ,
t he y
we r e
i ncli ne d t o m a i nt a i n t he i r
e xi s t i ng po li cy
o n
Ir a q,
und e r whi ch Rus s i a
r e a pe d
r i ch e co no m i c r e wa r d s . Rus s i a n f i r m s
pr o f i t e d ha nd s o m e ly
und e r t he UN's
o i l-f o r -f o o d
pr o gr a m ,
a nd S a d d a m H us s e i n a ls o o f f e r e d
lo nge r -t e r m
i nd uce -
m e nt s t ha t Rus s i a co uld r e a li ze
o nly
i f s a nct i o ns we r e wi t hd r a wn: a
m a jo r
d e -
ve lo pm e nt
co nt r a ct wi t h Rus s i a 's Luko i l
(va lue d a t s o m e
$12 bi lli o n)
a nd t he
pr o s pe ct
o f
s e t t li ng Ir a q's
s t a t e d e bt t o Rus s i a o f a bo ut
$8
bi lli o n. As
lo ng
a s
t he r e wa s s o m e
po s s i bi li t y
t ha t t he
Ir a q
i s s ue co uld be s e t t le d wi t h t he Ba a t hi s t
r e gi m e
i n
po we r ,
Rus s i a ha d i nce nt i ve s t o
po s i t i o n
i t s e lf t o
r e a p
t he s e
pr o m -
i s e d r e wa r d s .
Put i n's i ni t i a l
r e s po ns e
t o t he s e m i xe d i nce nt i ve s wa s t o
ke e p
hi s
o pt i o ns
o pe n
wi t h
s t r a t e gi c a m bi gui t y.
Whi le
Fo r e i gn
Mi ni s t e r
Igo r
Iva no v m a d e
s t r o ng
s t a t e m e nt s i n
o ppo s i t i o n
t o U.S .
pr o no unce m e nt s ,
Put i n a ut ho r i ze d
o f f i ci a l co nt a ct s wi t h
Ir a qi o ppo s i t i o n f i gur e s
a nd cho s e t o
s uppo r t
UN S e cu-
r i t y
Co unci l r e s o lut i o n 1441 i n
No ve m be r ,
whi ch wa r ne d
Ir a q
o f "s e r i o us co n-
s e que nce s "
i f i t d i d no t m e e t i t s d i s a r m a m e nt
o bli ga t i o ns .
Me a nwhi le U.S .
o f f i ci a ls
s o ught
Rus s i a n
s uppo r t by o f f e r i ng i nd uce m e nt s -ho no r i ng Ir a qi
co n-
t r a ct s wi t h Rus s i a n o i l
co m pa ni e s
a nd
pr o m i s i ng
Rus s i a a r o le i n t he
po s t wa r
s t a bi li za t i o n-t ha t t he Uni t e d S t a t e s co uld d e li ve r
o nly
a f t e r a
r e gi m e cha nge
58. On Rus s i a 's r e o r i e nt a t i o n t o wa r d t he Uni t e d
S t a t e s ,
s e e Wi lli a m C.
Wo hlf o r t h, "Rus s i a ,"
i n
Elli ngs
a nd
Fr i e d be r g,
wi t h
Wi lls ,
S t r a t e gi c
As i a , 2002-03;
a nd T ho m a s M.
Ni cho ls ,
"Rus s i a 's T ur n
We s t : S e a
Cha nge
o r
Oppo r t uni s m ?"
Wo r ld
Po li cy Jo ur na l,
Vo l.
19,
No . 4
(Wi nt e r 2002/03),
pp.
13-
22. On Put i n's
s t r a t e gy
a nd
m a ne uve r i ngs
o n
Ir a q,
s e e
Wo hlf o r t h,
"Rus s i a 's S o f t
Ba la nci ng
Act ,"
i n
Elli ngs
a nd
Fr i e d be r g,
wi t h
Wi lls ,
S t r a t e gi c
As i a , 2003-04,
pp.
165-179.
S e cur i t y
30:1
198
i n
Ba ghd a d .
Put i n's m o s t t r us t e d a i d e s
r e po r t e d ly
wo r ke d ha r d t o r e a ch a n
a gr e e m e nt
wi t h Bus h a d m i ni s t r a t i o n
o f f i ci a ls .59
But
a s
lo ng
a s Put i n r e m a i ne d
unce r t a i n o f U.S . r e s o lve a nd
ca pa bi li t y
t o
pr e va i l,
he r i s ke d m o r e
by a li gni ng
hi m s e lf
pr e m a t ur e ly
wi t h t he Uni t e d S t a t e s t ha n
by s t a nd i ng
a lo o f . If H us s e i n
s o m e ho w s ur vi ve d t he
cr i s i s -pe r ha ps by s a t i s f yi ng
t he wo r ld t ha t
Ir a q
ha d
d i s a r m e d -Put i n wo uld ha ve lo s t t he e co no m i c be ne f i t s
Ba ghd a d
o f f e r e d a nd
ga i ne d no t hi ng. Pr e s s ur i ng Ba ghd a d
t o d i s a r m i n a cco r d a nce wi t h r e s o lut i o n
1441 t hus ha d t hr e e
o ve r la ppi ng
be ne f i t s : i t m a i nt a i ne d t he
pr e s t i ge
o f t he S e -
cur i t y
Co unci l
(Rus s i a 's
f a vo r e d
f o r um );
i t d i d no t f o r e clo s e t he
po s s i bi li t y
o f
co o pe r a t i o n
wi t h t he Uni t e d S t a t e s i f H us s e i n
pr o ve d
r e ca lci t r a nt ;
a nd i t m a i n-
t a i ne d
Rus s i a 's
po t e nt i a lly pr o f i t a ble po s i t i o n
i n ca s e t he cr i s i s wa s r e s o lve d
wi t ho ut a f ull-s ca le i nva s i o n o f
Ir a q.
Ult i m a t e ly,
Rus s i a cho s e t o
a li gn
wi t h Fr a nce a nd
Ge r m a ny
i n
o ppo s i ng
a
s e co nd UN r e s o lut i o n
a ut ho r i zi ng
a n i nva s i o n. In i nt e ns e
d i plo m a t i c
e x-
cha nge s
i n
Ja nua r y
a nd
Fe br ua r y
2003,
Pr e s i d e nt
Ja cque s
Chi r a c co nvi nce d
Put i n t ha t Fr a nce (wi t h
Ge r m a ny)
wo uld le a d t he
ca m pa i gn.
Wi t h s uch
lo ng-
t i m e U.S . a lli e s
t a ki ng
t he
le a d ,
Put i n co uld
e xpe ct
t ha t t he
d i plo m a t i c
co s t s o f
o ppo s i ng Wa s hi ngt o n
wo uld be m i no r . Gi ve n t he
r e la t i ve ly
lo w
e xpe ct e d
co s t s ,
a num be r o f o t he r f a ct o r s
a r gue d s t r o ngly
i n f a vo r o f Put i n's d e ci s i o n.
Put i n
a ppe a r s
t o ha ve co ns i d e r e d a n i nva s i o n t o be a n unwi s e a nd
po t e nt i a lly
ve r y co s t ly s t r a t e gi c
m o ve t ha t wo uld i ll s e r ve t he wa r o n
t e r r o r .60 S t r o ng
e li t e
a nd
po pula r o pi ni o n a ga i ns t
U.S .
po li cy
i n
Ir a q
a ls o d o ubt le s s
f i gur e d
i n t he
Rus s i a n
pr e s i d e nt 's ca lcula t i o ns -pa r li a m e nt a r y
a nd
pr e s i d e nt i a l
e le ct i o ns
we r e
f o r t hco m i ng. H a vi ng jus t
ca ve d i n t o U.S .
pr e s s ur e
o n a ho s t o f s a li e nt i s -
s ue s
r a ngi ng
f r o m t he f ut ur e o f t he Ant i ba lli s t i c Mi s s i le
T r e a t y
t o NAT O e x-
pa ns i o n, s t a nd i ng up
t o
Wa s hi ngt o n
wa s a n a t t r a ct i ve
o pt i o n-pa r t i cula r ly
gi ve n
t ha t Rus s i a co uld f o llo w r a t he r t ha n le a d t he
o ppo s i t i o n, t he r e by
r e d uc-
i ng
t he li ke li ho o d t ha t i t s
la r ge r
e f f o r t s t o
r e a li gn
wi t h t he We s t wo uld be
t hr o wn o f f t r a ck.
Put i n wo r ke d ha r d t o e ns ur e t ha t hi s t a ck t o wa r d
Eur o pe
d i d no t co m e a t
t he
e xpe ns e
o f a
wo r ki ng s t r a t e gi c pa r t ne r s hi p
wi t h t he Uni t e d S t a t e s . As hi s
a i d e
S e r ge i
Pr i kho d ko
put
i t ,
"Our
pa r t ne r s hi p
S t a t e s i s no t a
ho s t a ge
o f t he
Ir a q
cr i s i s . T he r e a r e f a r t o o
m a ny
co m m o n
va lue s
a nd co m m o n t a s ks bo t h s ho r t t e r m a nd
lo ng
t e r m .... Our
co -o pe r a t i o n
ne ve r
59. Pa ve l
Fe lge nha ue r ,
"Ne w De t e nt e t o Di e
Yo ung,"
Mo s co w
T i m e s ,
Ma y
29,
2003.
60.
Re po r t s s ugge s t
t ha t Rus s i a 's
i nt e lli ge nce
s e r vi ce s we r e
f e e d i ng
Put i n
wi ld ly e xa gge r a t e d
e s t i -
m a t e s o f
Ir a q's pr o s pe ct s
i n a wa r wi t h U.S . f o r ce s . S e e
S e r ge i Ka r a ga no v,
"Cr i s i s
Le s s o ns ,"
Mo s co w
Ne ws ,
Apr i l
23,
2003. Put i n vo i ce d
s ke pt i ci s m r e ga r d i ng
t he
s t r a t e gi c
wi s d o m o f U.S .
po li cy
i n
pr e i nva s i o n
i nt e r vi e ws .
H a r d T i m e s
199
s t o ppe d ,
e ve n
d ur i ng
t he
Ir a q
cr i s i s ."61
T hi s wa s no t
jus t
r he t o r i c;
co ncr e t e co -
o pe r a t i o n
co nt i nue d o n
i nt e lli ge nce s ha r i ng,
nucle a r a r m s
co nt r o l,
NAT O e x-
pa ns i o n, pe a ce ke e pi ng
i n
Af gha ni s t a n,
a nd t he m ult i la t e r a l e f f o r t s t o co unt e r
t he
t hr e a t f r o m No r t h Ko r e a -a ll o f whi ch
he lpe d
t o e ns ur e t ha t
Rus s i a wo uld no t
je o pa r d i ze
i t s o ve r a ll
wi t h t he Uni t e d S t a t e s .
And a s t he n Na t i o na l
S e cur i t y
Ad vi s e r Co nd o le e zza Ri ce 's f a m o us
"puni s h
Fr a nce ,
i gno r e Ge r m a ny,
a nd
f o r gi ve
Rus s i a "
qui p
i nd i ca t e s ,
t hi s
s t r a t e gy
wo r ke d .62
FRANCE. T he
pr i m a cy
o f
lo ng-s t a nd i ng
d o m e s t i c
po li t i ca l
f a ct o r s i n t he Ge r -
m a n a nd T ur ki s h
ca s e s ,
a nd Rus s i a 's e xt r e m e
ci r cum s pe ct i o n
a nd
unwi lli ng-
ne s s t o f a ce
a ny s i gni f i ca nt
t r a d e -o f f be t we e n
co ns t r a i ni ng
t he Uni t e d S t a t e s o n
Ir a q
a nd o t he r
go a ls ,
a ll s e r ve t o
br i ng
Fr a nce 's r o le t o t he f o r e .
Ne ve r t he le s s ,
s o f t
ba la nci ng
i s
no t a bly
a bs e nt f r o m t he t hr e e
e xpla na t i o ns
f o r Fr e nch
po li cy
upo n
whi ch
e xpe r t
o bs e r ve r s
co nve r ge .63
Fi r s t wa s t he
po li cy d i s put e
be t we e n t he Fr e nch a nd U.S .
go ve r nm e nt s .
Pr e s -
i d e nt
Chi r a c,
Fo r e i gn
Mi ni s t e r
Do m i ni que
d e
Vi lle pi n,
a nd i nd e e d m o s t o f t he
Fr e nch
po li cy
e s t a bli s hm e nt
o ppo s e d r e gi m e cha nge
o n a
va r i e t y
o f
gr o und s ,
chi e f
a m o ng
t he m t he i r
e xpe ct a t i o n
t ha t a n
o ccupa t i o n
o f
Ir a q
wo uld be s o
blo o d y
a nd
lo ng
a s t o wo r s e n t he
pr o ble m
o f
a l-Qa i d a -s t yle
t e r r o r i s m .64 Gi ve n
Fr a nce 's
la r ge
Mus li m
po pula t i o n
a nd i t s
pe r ce i ve d hi gh e xpo s ur e
t o Is la m i c
t e r r o r i s m ,
t he
po t e nt i a l
d o wns i d e s o f a co nt e s t e d
o ccupa t i o n
o f
Ir a q
we r e
hi ghly
s a li e nt t o Fr e nch
po li cym a ke r s .
H e nce ,
a t t he o ut s e t
t he y
f a ce d
s t r o ng
i nce nt i ve s t o
ba r ga i n
wi t h t he i r U.S . a lli e s t o
t r y
t o a lt e r t he Bus h a d m i ni s t r a -
t i o n's cho s e n
po li cy. Pus hi ng
f o r t he
Ir a q
i s s ue t o be
pla ye d
o ut i n t he UN
61.
Quo t e d
i n And r e w
Ja ck
a nd S t e f a n
Wa gs t yl, "Opt i m i s m
o n Rus s i a n Po s t wa r Acco r d wi t h
U.S .,"
Fi na nci a l
T i m e s ,
Ma y 16,
2003.
62. Ela i ne
S ci o li no ,
"Fr e nch
S t r uggle
No w wi t h H o w t o Co e xi s t wi t h
Bus h,"
Ne w Yo r k
T i m e s ,
Fe b-
r ua r y
8,
2005.
63. T he
f o llo wi ng
s o ur ce s we r e
e s pe ci a lly he lpf ul
i n
r e co ns t r uct i ng
Fr e nch
po li cym a ki ng
o n
Ir a q:
Go r d o n a nd
S ha pi r o ,
Alli e s a t
Wa r ; Po nd ,
Fr i e nd ly
Fi r e ;
"T he Di vi d e d
We s t ,"
pt s .
1-3;
a nd t he co n-
f e r e nce "T he Uni t e d S t a t e s a nd Fr a nce a f t e r t he Wa r i n
Ir a q" (Wa s hi ngt o n,
D.C.: Ce nt e r f o r t he
Uni t e d S t a t e s a nd Fr a nce
[CUS F], Br o o ki ngs , Ma y
12, 2003),
ht t p://www.br o o ki ngs .e d u/f p/cus f /
e ve nt s /20030512cus f .ht m .
T he a s s e s s m e nt s o f m o t i va t i o ns i n t he s e
a na lys e s co r r e s po nd
t o t ho s e
f o und i n t he wi d e r li t e r a t ur e .
Ana lys t s
d o no t s e e e co no m i c i nce nt i ve s a s
be i ng i m po r t a nt
i n t hi s
ca s e .
S e e ,
f o r
e xa m ple ,
Va le r i e
Ma r ce l,
"T o t a l i n
Ir a q," U.S .-Fr a nce
Ana lys i s
S e r i e s
(Wa s hi ngt o n,
D.C.:
CUS F,
Br o o ki ngs , Augus t
2003).
64.
S e e ,
f o r
e xa m ple ,
"Int e r vi e w Gi ve n
by
M.
Ja cque s
Chi r a c,
Pr e s i d e nt o f t he
Re publi c,
t o 'T F1'
a nd
'Fr a nce 2,"'
Ma r ch
10, 2003,
ht t p://www.e lys e e .f r /e lys e e /f r a nca i s /a ct ua li t e s /a le lys e e /
2003/m a r s /i nt e r vi e w_t e le vi s e e
s ur
1
i r a q-pa ge _2-2.4840.ht m l;
a ls o i nd i ca t i ve a r e t he
a na lys e s
o f
Fr e nch co unt e r t e r r o r i s m
e xpe r t Jud ge Je a n-Lo ui s
Br ugui e r e .
S e e
Br ugui e r e ,
"T e r r o r i s m a f t e r t he
Wa r i n
Ir a q," U.S .-Fr a nce Ana lys i s
S e r i e s
(Wa s hi ngt o n,
D.C.: CUS F,
Br o o ki ngs , Ma y
2003),
ht t p://
www.br o o k.e d u/pr i nt m e .wbs ?pa ge =/f p/cus e /a na lys i s /br ugui e r e .ht m .
Fo r a n
a na lys i s
o f U.S .-
Eur o pe a n po li cy
d i f f e r e nce s o n
Ir a q,
s e e
Po nd ,
Fr i e nd ly
Fi r e ,
cha p
3.
S e cur i t y
30:1
100
r e f le ct e d no t
o nly
Fr a nce 's i m m e d i a t e
po li cy
i nt e r e s t s ,
but a ls o i t s
lo ng-t e r m
ba r ga i ni ng
i nce nt i ve t o m a i nt a i n t he
ce nt r a li t y
o f t he
S e cur i t y
Co unci l. Once
t he Bus h a d m i ni s t r a t i o n m a d e i t
a bund a nt ly
cle a r t ha t i t wo uld i nva d e
Ir a q
no
m a t t e r
wha t ,
a Fr e nch
po li cy
o f
cr i t i ci zi ng
t he
Ir a q
i nva s i o n co uld s t i ll be s e e n
a s a n
o pt i m a l r e s po ns e , e s pe ci a lly gi ve n
t ha t t he i nva s i o n's
o pe r a t i o na l
e f f e c-
t i ve ne s s d i d no t
d e pe nd
o n Fr a nce 's a s s i s t a nce . Fr a nce
m a y
i nd e e d ha ve be e n
s ucce s s f ul i n
i ns ula t i ng
i t s e lf f r o m t he
po t e nt i a l
d o wns i d e s o f t he
Ir a q
i nva -
s i o n: i nd i ca t i ve i n t hi s
r e ga r d
i s a r e ce nt PIPA
po ll
t ha t f o und t ha t
a m o ng
t he
m a jo r po we r s ,
Fr a nce i s t he o ne m o s t
wi d e ly
vi e we d wo r ld wi d e a s
ha vi ng
a
po s i t i ve i nf lue nce .65 S i gni f i ca nt ly,
t he Fr e nch
po li cy
o f
o ppo s i ng
t he Uni t e d
S t a t e s o n
Ir a q
d i d no t
s i m ply
o f f e r a
po t e nt i a l
be ne f i t o f i ns ula t i o n f r o m
a nge r
e m a na t i ng
f r o m t he Mus li m
wo r ld ;
t he
e xpe ct e d d i plo m a t i c
co s t s o f
Fr a nce 's
o ppo s i t i o n
t o t he Uni t e d S t a t e s we r e a ls o
unus ua lly
lo w,
o wi ng
t o
s ur pr i s e
d e -
ci s i o ns
by
t wo
t r a d i t i o na lly lo ya l
U.S .
a lli e s --Ge r m a ny
a nd
T ur ke y-t o d e f y
t he Bus h a d m i ni s t r a t i o n.
S e co nd ,
i nf o r m e d a cco unt s o f Fr e nch
po li cy hi ghli ght
t he
s i gni f i ca nce
o f Eu-
r o pe a n r e gi o na l d yna m i cs .
At a t i m e whe n t he EU f a ce d num e r o us ne w cha l-
le nge s
f r o m i t s i nclus i o n o f s e ve r a l Ce nt r a l
Eur o pe a n
s t a t e s ,
Pr e s i d e nt Chi r a c
co uld no t a f f o r d t o lo s e t he
po li cy
i ni t i a t i ve t o Cha nce llo r
S chr 6d e r ,
who s e
a nt i wa r s t a nce wa s m o r e co ns i s t e nt wi t h
Eur o pe a n o pi ni o n
t ha n Chi r a c's i ni -
t i a l
po s t ur e .
S chr 6d e r 's
vulne r a bi li t y
i n t he f a ce o f
Wa s hi ngt o n's
i nt e ns e i r e a t
hi s d e ci s i o n m a d e hi m t he
s uppli ca nt
i n t he bi la t e r a l
wi t h
Fr a nce ,
whi ch
ga ve
Chi r a c t he
o ppo r t uni t y
t o r e s t a r t t he Fr a nco -Ge r m a n "m o t o r " o f
t he EU wi t h hi m s e lf i n co nt r o l. Chi r a c's d e ci s i o n i n
Ja nua r y
t o s i d e wi t h
S chr 6d e r
a llo we d hi m t o
co -o pt
t he Ge r m a n le a d e r a nd r e s t o r e Fr a nce t o a
m o r e
co m m a nd i ng
r o le i n EU a f f a i r s .
T hi r d ,
o bs e r ve r s
a gr e e
t ha t d o m e s t i c
po li t i cs pla ye d
a r o le i n t he Fr e nch
pr e s i d e nt 's
ca lcula t i o ns . Chi r a c ha d
jus t
we a t he r e d a
t o uch-a nd -go
r e -e le ct i o n
i n whi ch he wo n
o nly
19
pe r ce nt
o f t he vo t e i n t he f i r s t r o und . T r ue t o hi s
Ga ulli s t
r o o t s ,
he
cle a r ly
s a w t he
a d va nt a ge
o f
pla yi ng
t o t he Fr e nch
publi c's
t r a d i t i o na l
a ppr e ci a t i o n
o f
s t a nd i ng up
t o t he Uni t e d S t a t e s . T hi s
po s i t i o n
wa s
pa r t i cula r ly t e m pt i ng gi ve n
Fr a nce 's s i za ble Mus li m
m i no r i t y.
In t he vi e w o f m o s t
a na lys t s , Eur o pe a n
a nd d o m e s t i c
po li t i cs
we r e
i m po r -
t a nt i nce nt i ve s
f o r
Fr a nce , but
t he y
we r e d o m i na t e d
by po li cy
a nd
ba r ga i ni ng
co ns i d e r a t i o ns . H a d t he
lo gi c
o f
po li cy
a nd
ba r ga i ni ng po i nt e d
t o wa r d Fr e nch
pa r t i ci pa t i o n
i n t he wa r , Chi r a c wo uld
li ke ly
ha ve
i gno r e d
t he d o m e s t i c
po li t i -
65. "Who Wi ll Le a d t he Wo r ld ?"
Pr o gr a m
o n Int e r na t i o na l
Po li cy
At t i t ud e s ,
Apr i l
6, 2005,
ht t p://
www.pi pa .o r g/Onli ne Re po r t s /e ur o pe /040605/Qnna i r e 04_06_05.pd f , p.
1.
H a r d T i m e s
101
ca l i nce nt i ve s . On t he o t he r
ha nd ,
t he
po li t i ca l
a nd
Eur o pe a n
d i m e ns i o ns
m a y
we ll ha ve
t i ppe d
t he ba la nce i n f a vo r o f
o ppo s i t i o n be yo nd
wha t
m i ght
ha ve
be e n
o pt i m a l
f o r
po li cy
a nd
ba r ga i ni ng pur po s e s -t ha t ,
a t
a ny
r a t e ,
i s t he a s -
s e s s m e nt o f t he num e r o us Fr e nch cr i t i cs o f Chi r a c's a nd d e
Vi lle pi n's
co nd uct
d ur i ng
t he cr i s i s .66 T he cr i t i ca l
i s s ue , t he r e f o r e ,
i s t o a s s e s s t he
d e gr e e
t o whi ch
t he
s o f t -ba la nci ng e xpla na t i o n ca pt ur e s
t he
ge ne r a l
UN
S e cur i t y
Co unci l-
f o cus e d
ba r ga i ni ng
s t a nce a nd ho w t hi s i nt e r a ct e d wi t h t he m o r e i m m e d i a t e
po li cy
co nce r ns
s wi r li ng
a r o und t he
Ir a q
i s s ue .
Unli ke t he i r
co unt e r pa r t s
i n Mo s co w a nd
Be r li n,
Chi r a c a nd d e
Vi lle pi n
publi cly
a nd
lo ud ly
a s s o ci a t e d t he i r
po s i t i o n
o n
Ir a q
wi t h t he i r
pr e f e r e nce
f o r a
m ult i po la r
wo r ld .
Alt ho ugh
t he t e r m
"m ult i po la r i t y"
a s Fr e nch s t a t e s m e n us e
i t ha s
m a ny m e a ni ngs ,
no ne m a t che s i t s d e f i ni t i o n i n Am e r i ca n
po li t i ca l
s ci -
e nce .
Jud gi ng by
t he i r
publi c
ut t e r a nce s ,
bo t h m e n be li e ve t ha t Fr a nce a nd t he
wo r ld a r e be t t e r o f f whe n
ke y
d e ci s i o ns
r e ga r d i ng glo ba l s e cur i t y
a r e a r r i ve d
a t
m ult i la t e r a lly-a nd
t ha t t he UN
S e cur i t y
Co unci l i s a n
i m po r t a nt
m e cha -
ni s m f o r
a chi e vi ng
t hi s s t a t e o f
a f f a i r s .67
T hi s
pr e f e r e nce
f i t s wi t h Fr a nce 's co n-
ce pt i o n
o f i t s
i d e nt i t y
a nd
t r a d i t i o ns ,
but i t a ls o
m e r ge s
s e a m le s s ly
wi t h a r a t i o na l
ba r ga i ni ng s t r a t e gy
vi s -a -vi s
t he Uni t e d S t a t e s t ha t
e xplo i t s
t he f o r t ui t o us ci r cum s t a nce o f
be i ng
o ne o f t he f i ve
ve t o -wi e ld i ng pe r -
m a ne nt m e m be r s o f t he
S e cur i t y
Co unci l.68 Gi ve n t he
ve t o ,
a
po li cy pr e f e r e nce
f o r
m a i nt a i ni ng
t he
pr e s t i ge
o f t he
S e cur i t y
Co unci l
by t r yi ng
t o
d e le gi t i m i ze
r e co ur s e t o f o r ce wi t ho ut i t s s a nct i o n
m a r gi na lly
i ncr e a s e s Fr a nce 's i nf lue nce
o ve r U.S . us e o f f o r ce . T ha t i nf lue nce i s va lua ble t o
Fr a nce ,
gi ve n
t ha t i t i s i nca -
pa ble
o f e i t he r
co unt e r i ng
Am e r i ca n
po we r
o r
e ve n,
i n m o s t
ca s e s ,
f i e ld i ng
f o r ce s o f i t s o wn t o
a cco m pli s h glo ba l
m i s s i o ns s uch a s
d i s a r m i ng Ir a q.
T he
pur po s e
o f t ha t
ba r ga i ni ng
s t a nce , ho we ve r ,
i s no t
ne ce s s a r i ly
t o che ck
66.
S e e ,
f o r
e xa m ple ,
Li o ne l
Jo s pi n,
"T he
Re la t i o ns hi p
be t we e n Fr a nce a nd
Am e r i ca ,"
le ct ur e d e -
li ve r e d a t H a r va r d
Uni ve r s i t y,
De ce m be r
4, 2003;
a nd
co m m e nt a r y by
Fr e nch
pa r t i ci pa nt s
a t t he
co nf e r e nce "T he Uni t e d S t a t e s a nd Fr a nce a f t e r t he Wa r i n
Ir a q."
67. T o ci t e o ne
e xa m ple :
It wa s
wi d e ly r e po r t e d
t ha t t he f i r s t s e nt e nce Chi r a c ut t e r e d i n t he i nt e r -
vi e w i n whi ch he a nno unce d hi s i nt e nt i o n t o ve t o t he s e co nd
S e cur i t y
Co unci l r e s o lut i o n wa s : "We
wa nt t o li ve i n a
m ult i po la r
wo r ld ."
T hi s , ho we ve r ,
wa s
o nly
t he f i r s t cla us e i n a s e nt e nce t ha t co n-
t i nue s : "i .e .
o ne
wi t h a f e w
la r ge gr o ups e njo yi ng
a s ha r m o ni o us r e la t i o ns a s
po s s i ble
wi t h e a ch
o t he r ,
a wo r ld i n whi ch
Eur o pe , a m o ng
o t he r s ,
wi ll ha ve i t s f ull
pla ce ,
a wo r ld i n whi ch d e m o c-
r a cy pr o gr e s s e s ,
he nce t he f und a m e nt a l
i m po r t a nce
f o r us o f t he Uni t e d Na t i o ns
Or ga ni za t i o n
whi ch
pr o vi d e s
a f r a m e wo r k a nd
gi ve s i m pe t us
t o t hi s
d e m o cr a cy
a nd
ha r m o ny."
"Int e r vi e w
Gi ve n
by
M.
Ja cque s
Chi r a c." Fo r a n
e xa m ple
o f t he
f o r e i gn
m i ni s t e r 's
t hi nki ng,
s e e t he Ala s t a i r
Bucha n Le ct ur e
2003,
d e li ve r e d
by
Fr e nch
Fo r e i gn
Mi ni s t e r
Do m i ni que
d e
Vi lle pi n,
Ins t i t ut e f o r
S t r a t e gi c
S t ud i e s , Lo nd o n,
Uni t e d
Ki ngd o m ,
Ma r ch
27,
2003
ht t p://www.i i s s .o r g/
co nf e r e nce pa ge .php?co nf lD=56.
68. Er i k
Vo e t e n,
"Out s i d e
Opt i o ns
a nd t he
Lo gi c
o f
S e cur i t y
Co unci l
Act i o n,"
Am e r i ca n Po li t i ca l
S ci e nce
Re vi e w,
Vo l.
95,
No . 4 (No ve m be r 2001),
pp.
845-858.
S e cur i t y
30:1 102
U.S .
po we r ge ne r a lly
but t o e nha nce Fr a nce 's
a bi li t y
t o
ba r ga i n
o ve r
s pe ci f i c
po li cy r e s po ns e s
t o
glo ba l s e cur i t y
i s s ue s . In t he
Ir a q
ca s e ,
Fr a nce 's
ge ne r a l
s t a nce t o wa r d
bo ls t e r i ng
t he
S e cur i t y
Co unci l wo r ke d wi t h i t s r e a l
po li cy pr e f -
e r e nce s o n
Ir a q. T o ge t he r
t he s e i nce nt i ve s
pus he d
Pa r i s t o wa r d a
po s i t i o n
be -
t we e n
Ge r m a ny's o ut r i ght o ppo s i t i o n
a nd t he U.S .-U.K. s t a nce .
Oppo s i t i o n
a s
ca t e go r i ca l
a s
S chr 6d e r 's
wo uld
pus h Wa s hi ngt o n
t o wa r d uni la t e r a li s m a nd
t hus we a ke n t he
S e cur i t y
Co unci l. In la t e
Augus t ,
d e
Vi lle pi n r e po s i t i o ne d
Fr a nce 's
po li cy
o n
Ir a q
t o
a cce pt
t he
po s s i bi li t y
o f t he us e o f f o r ce a s
lo ng
a s i t
wa s cha nne le d
t hr o ugh
t he
S e cur i t y
Co unci l. Af t e r Pr e s i d e nt Bus h
put
t he d i s -
a r m a m e nt o f
Ir a q
be f o r e t he UN i n
S e pt e m be r
2002,
Fr a nce
a gr e e d
t o
S e cur i t y
Co unci l r e s o lut i o n
1441,
f o llo wi ng
ha r d
ba r ga i ni ng
t o
pr e ve nt
t he i nclus i o n o f
wo r d i ng
t ha t wo uld ha ve
gi ve n
t he Uni t e d S t a t e s a nd Br i t a i n a
gr e e n li ght
t o
t o pple
H us s e i n wi t ho ut f ur t he r
S e cur i t y
Co unci l
s a y-s o .
Chi r a c's
po li cy m a y
ha ve lur e d t he Uni t e d S t a t e s i nt o t he we b o f UN
d i plo -
m a cy,
but
o nly by m o vi ng
Fr a nce 's s t a nce m uch clo s e r t o
Wa s hi ngt o n's
a nd
Lo nd o n's a nd
a ct i ve ly pr e pa r i ng
t o s a nct i o n a nd e ve n
pa r t i ci pa t e
i n a wa r
a ga i ns t Ir a q.
Fr e nch
po li cym a ke r s i ni t i a lly
a s s um e d t ha t H us s e i n's r e ca lci -
t r a nce wo uld
pr o ba bly
le a d t o a vi o la t i o n o f r e s o lut i o n 1441 a nd a ca s us be lli .
Alt ho ugh
i t i s
i m po s s i ble
t o kno w whe t he r Chi r a c wa s
s i nce r e ,
t he e vi d e nce
s ugge s t s
t ha t Fr a nce
a ct i ve ly pr e pa r e d
f o r
po s s i ble pa r t i ci pa t i o n
i n a
m i li t a r y
a ct i o n
a ga i ns t Ir a q, i nclud i ng m o bi li zi ng
t he ca r r i e r Cha r le s d e
Ga ulle ,
r e a d yi ng
t he a r m e d
f o r ce s ,
a nd
i ni t i a t i ng
s t a f f t a lks wi t h t he co m m a nd e r i n chi e f o f t he
U.S . Ce nt r a l
Co m m a nd ,
Ge n.
T o m m y
Fr a nks ,
o n a
po s s i ble
15,000-m a n
co nt r i -
but i o n t o a n a lli e d a s s a ult o n
Ir a q.
T he
po li cy
wa s
lo gi ca l, gi ve n
Chi r a c's
po l-
i cy pr e f e r e nce s
a nd
ba r ga i ni ng
i nt e r e s t s : Fr a nce 's m a i n
ho pe
o f
pus hi ng
Wa s hi ngt o n
a nd Lo nd o n clo s e r t o i t s
pr e f e r r e d po li cy
wa s
by us i ng
i t s
i nf lue nce i n t he UN
S e cur i t y
Co unci l,
a r o ut e t ha t be ne f i t e d t he
lo nge r -t e r m
s t r a t e gy
o f
but t r e s s i ng
t he r o le o f t ha t
bo d y.
Gi ve n t ha t
ba r ga i ni ng
i nce nt i ve s
a nd
po li cy pr e f e r e nce s
wo r ke d i n t a nd e m
he r e ,
Fr a nce d i d no t f a ce a t r a d e -o f f
be t we e n t he m . It i s t he r e f o r e ha r d t o
a s s i gn
r e la t i ve
we i ght
t o e a ch.
T he s e
i nce nt i ve s , ho we ve r ,
d o no t
a lwa ys
co i nci d e . In o ne r e ce nt ca s e whe r e
t he t wo i nce nt i ve s ca m e i nt o co nf li ct -Ko s o vo -Fr a nce 's
po s i t i o n
o f
s uppo r t -
i ng
NAT O
m i li t a r y
a ct i o n i n 1999 wa s co ns i s t e nt wi t h i t s i m m e d i a t e
po li cy
pr e f e r e nce s
but no t wi t h t he
lo ng-t e r m ba r ga i ni ng
i nce nt i ve o f
m a i nt a i ni ng
t he
ce nt r a li t y
o f t he UN
S e cur i t y
Co unci l. In t he
Ir a q ca s e , e ve n
t ho ugh
i t s e r ve d
bo t h t he
ge ne r a l ba r ga i ni ng
i nt e r e s t a nd t he i m m e d i a t e
po li cy pr e f e r e nce
o f
t he Fr e nch, Fr a nce 's i ni t i a l
po li cy
wa s
i llo gi ca l
f r o m a
s o f t -ba la nci ng pe r s pe c-
t i ve be ca us e i t
po t e nt i a lly
e a s e d t he
d i plo m a t i c pa t h
f o r a m a s s i ve e xe r ci s e a nd
po s s i ble e xpa ns i o n
o f U.S .
po we r .
H a r d T i m e s
f o r S o f t Ba la nci ng 1103
In
Ja nua r y
2003 Chi r a c le a r ne d t ha t t he Bus h a d m i ni s t r a t i o n wa s
go i ng
t o
go
t o wa r
r e ga r d le s s
o f wha t t he UN
we a po ns i ns pe ct o r s
i n
Ir a q
unco ve r e d .
T hi s
i nt e lli ge nce e xpo s e d
a f und a m e nt a l co nt r a d i ct i o n be t we e n Fr e nch a nd
U.S .-U.K.
po li cy pr e f e r e nce s
t ha t ha d be e n
d i plo m a t i ca lly
o bf us ca t e d unt i l t ha t
m o m e nt . Chi r a c
s t r o ngly pr e f e r r e d
co nt a i nm e nt a nd
i ns pe ct i o ns
a s a
wa y
o f
d e a li ng
wi t h
Ir a q,
whi le Pr e s i d e nt Bus h a nd Pr i m e Mi ni s t e r
T o ny
Bla i r
jus t
a s
s t r o ngly pr e f e r r e d r e gi m e cha nge .
T he f a ct t ha t t he
we a po ns i ns pe ct i o ns
s e e m e d -t o t he UN's H a ns Bli x a nd t he
Fr e nch,
a t le a s t -t o be
go i ng
s o we ll
(whi ch Chi r a c
f r a nkly a ckno wle d ge d
wa s t he r e s ult o f U.S .-U.K.
m i li t a r y pr e s -
s ur e ) e xa ce r ba t e d t he co nt r a d i ct i o ns be t we e n t he t wo s i d e s '
pr e f e r r e d po li ci e s .
T he r e a li za t i o n t ha t t he
Ir a q que s t i o n
wa s
go i ng
t o be r e s o lve d
t hr o ugh r e gi m e
cha nge
no m a t t e r wha t t he
i ns pe ct o r s
d i s co ve r e d m e a nt t ha t t he Fr e nch wo uld
no t
pa r t i ci pa t e
i n t he co a li t i o n. T he
o nly que s t i o n
wa s ho w
s t r o ngly
t o
o ppo s e
t he Bus h a d m i ni s t r a t i o n's d e ci s i o n.
T he Fr e nch
le a d e r s hi p
m uch
pr e f e r r e d
a
lo w-ke y a ppr o a ch
t o t he
Ir a q
i s s ue .
T he y
t r i e d t o a vo i d a
publi c
s ho wd o wn wi t h t he Uni t e d S t a t e s a nd t he Uni t e d
Ki ngd o m by ur gi ng
t he m no t t o
t r y
f o r a s e co nd r e s o lut i o n-i n whi ch
ca s e ,
t he y a r gue d
i n
m e e t i ngs
wi t h Bus h
o f f i ci a ls ,
t he Fr e nch
go ve r nm e nt
wo uld
vo i ce
d i s a ppr o va l
but o t he r wi s e s t a nd a s i d e . T he Bus h a d m i ni s t r a t i o n
r e je ct e d
Chi r a c's
"ge nt le m e n's a gr e e m e nt "
o ut o f d e f e r e nce t o Pr i m e Mi ni s t e r
Bla i r ,
who be li e ve d t ha t he ne e d e d a s e co nd
S e cur i t y
Co unci l r e s o lut i o n f o r d o m e s -
t i c
r e a s o ns .69
But f o r t hi s
uni que
d o m e s t i c
co nt i nge ncy,
a
Wa s hi ngt o n-Pa r i s
d e a l
m i ght
ha ve be e n
s t r uck,
a nd t he m o s t d r a m a t i c
pha s e
o f t he i nt e r -a lli e d
d i s put e
a vo i d e d . In t he
e ve nt ,
Chi r a c d e ci d e d t o wo r k ha r d t o
d e ny
t he Am e r i -
ca ns a nd t he Br i t i s h a s e co nd
r e s o lut i o n,
r e s ult i ng
i n t he
we ll-publi ci ze d s pe c-
t a cle o f t he t wo s i d e s
f e ve r i s hly li ni ng up
a lli e s i n t he
UN,
Fr a nce 's ve t o
t hr e a t ,
a nd t he U.S .-U.K. f a i lur e t o
put t o ge t he r
a
m a jo r i t y
i n t he
S e cur i t y
Co unci l.
T he
ho ld s t ha t t he Uni t e d S t a t e s
i ncr e a s i ngly po s e s
a d i r e ct
s e cur i t y cha lle nge
t o o t he r
s t a t e s ,
whi ch
t he y r e s po nd
t o
by s e e ki ng
t o
co ns t r a i n U.S .
po we r
a nd t he a t t e nd a nt t hr e a t . Our r e vi e w o f t he e ve nt s le a d -
i ng up
t o t he i nva s i o n o f
Ir a q
s ho ws ho w m i s t a ke n t hi s
a r gum e nt
i s . Fo r
Fr a nce -t he
li nchpi n
o f t he
d i plo m a t i c
co a li t i o n t ha t co nf r o nt e d t he Bus h
a d m i ni s t r a t i o n-po li cy pr e f e r e nce s , lo nge r -t e r m ba r ga i ni ng
i nce nt i ve s ,
a nd
d o m e s t i c a nd
Eur o pe a n po li t i cs
a ll
pus he d
t o wa r d
co ns t r a i ni ng
t he Uni t e d
S t a t e s . Eve n
t ho ugh
t he Fr e nch
le a d e r s hi p s t r o ngly d i s a gr e e d
wi t h t he Bus h
a d m i ni s t r a t i o n o ve r t he
s a ga ci t y
o f
i nva d i ng Ir a q
o n
s t r a t e gi c gr o und s ,
t he
69. T hi s
e pi s o d e
i s d e t a i le d i n Go r d o n a nd
S ha pi r o ,
Alli e s a t
Wa r .
S e cur i t y
30:1 104
m o s t
pr e ce d e nt -br e a ki ng a s pe ct
o f Fr e nch be ha vi o r -t he i nt e ns e
ca m pa i gn
a ga i ns t
t he Uni t e d S t a t e s a nd Br i t a i n i n t he UN
S e cur i t y
Co unci l-wa s s o m e -
t hi ng
Pr e s i d e nt Chi r a c t r i e d t o a vo i d . T he s e co nd UN
r e s o lut i o n,
a nd t he a t t e n-
d a nt
d e ba t e ,
we nt f o r wa r d
o nly
be ca us e o f
co m ple x
d o m e s t i c i nce nt i ve s
a ct i ng
o n Pr i m e Mi ni s t e r Bla i r . T he
i s t hus
wr o ng
t o a t t r i b-
ut e t he no ve l e le m e nt s i n Fr e nch
po li cy m a i nly
t o a s hi f t i n ho w Fr a nce vi e we d
U.S .
po we r
o r t he
po t e nt i a l s e cur i t y
t hr e a t i t
po s e s .
Wha t i s t r ue f o r Fr a nce a ls o
a ppli e s
t o t he o t he r
ke y pla ye r s .
T he m o s t s a -
li e nt a nd no ve l be ha vi o r i n t he
Ir a q ca s e -e s pe ci a lly
Cha nce llo r
S chr 6d e r 's
f a t e f ul d e ci s i o n t o
o ppo s e
t he Bus h a d m i ni s t r a t i o n
ca t e go r i ca lly-ca nno t
be
s e e n a s a
r e s po ns e
t o t he
s e cur i t y cha lle nge s e m a na t i ng
f r o m t he
und e r lyi ng
po we r
o f t he Uni t e d S t a t e s . Gr e a t
po we r
be ha vi o r
d ur i ng
t he
pa s t
t wo
ye a r s
s i nce t he i nva s i o n o f
Ir a q pr o vi d e s
f ur t he r e vi d e nce
a ga i ns t
t he
a r gum e nt .
In
pa r t i cula r ,
f a r f r o m
s e e ki ng
t o f ur t he r d i s t a nce t he m s e lve s f r o m
t he Uni t e d
S t a t e s ,
Fr a nce a nd
Ge r m a ny
ha ve r us he d t o
pur s ue
a
r a ppr o che -
m e nt wi t h t he Bus h a d m i ni s t r a t i o n
d ur i ng
t hi s
pe r i o d . S i gni f i ca nt ly,
t hi s m o ve
ha d
a lr e a d y ga t he r e d
s ubs t a nt i a l m o m e nt um e ve n be f o r e Pr e s i d e nt Bus h e x-
t e nd e d a
d i plo m a t i c
o li ve br a nch a f t e r
ga i ni ng
r e -e le ct i o n.
Ir a q
Po s t m o r t e m :
S o f t Ba la nci ng
ve r s us
Ba r ga i ni ng
Of a ll t he
co m ple x
m o t i va t i o ns i n
pla y
i n t he
Ir a q
ca s e ,
t he
ba r ga i ni ng
i nce n-
t i ve i s clo s e s t t o wha t
a na lys t s
m e a n
by
"s o f t
ba la nci ng."
But t he d i f f e r e nce s
be t we e n
ba la nci ng
a nd
ba r ga i ni ng
a r e
pr o f o und . Ba r ga i ni ng
i s
ubi qui t o us
i n a
wo r ld o f s e lf -i nt e r e s t e d s t a t e s .
Us i ng
t he t e r m
"ba la nci ng"
t o d e s cr i be ba r -
ga i ni ng
a m o unt s i n
pr a ct i ce
t o
e qua t i ng ba la nci ng
wi t h i nt e r na t i o na l r e la t i o ns
wr i t
la r ge .
If i t be co m e s a no t he r wo r d f o r
ba r ga i ni ng, ba la nci ng
i s
m e a ni ngle s s
a s a n
a na lyt i ca l co nce pt -s o m e t hi ng
t ha t d e s cr i be s a
co ns t a nt ,
r a t he r t ha n a
va r i a ble ;
a m und a ne r a t he r t ha n
no t e wo r t hy d e ve lo pm e nt
i n i nt e r na t i o na l
po li t i cs .
T he cr i t i ca l ne e d t o
d i s t i ngui s h ba r ga i ni ng
f r o m s o f t
ba la nci ng
be co m e s
e ve n cle a r e r whe n o ne co ns i d e r s t ha t
ba r ga i ni ng
i nce nt i ve s ca n s o m e t i m e s
d r i ve s t a t e s i nt o be ha vi o r t ha t i s t he
o ppo s i t e
o f s o f t
ba la nci ng.
In t he
Ir a q
ca s e ,
f o r
e xa m ple ,
Fr a nce 's
ba r ga i ni ng
i nt e r e s t i n
m a i nt a i ni ng
t he
i m po r t a nce
o f t he
UN
S e cur i t y
Co unci l le d i t t o f o llo w a
po li cy
t ha t he ld o ut a s a r e a l
po s s i bi li t y
a
UN s a nct i o n o f a U.S .-le d i nva s i o n o f
Ir a q.
Pur s ui t o f t hi s
ba r ga i ni ng
i nce nt i ve
le d Fr a nce t o wa r d a
po li cy t ha t , i n t he e nd , m i ght
ha ve
he lpe d
t o
le gi t i m i ze
a
po t e nt i a l e xpa ns i o n
o f U.S .
po we r
i n t he Pe r s i a n Gulf -t ha t i s , t he
o ppo s i t e
o f
wha t s o f t
ba la nci ng pr e d i ct s .
T o ca ll t hi s s o f t
ba la nci ng
m a ke s a
m o cke r y
o f t he
H a r d T i m e s
f o r S o f t Ba la nci ng 105
t e r m .
Act i ng
t o
a ugm e nt
t he r o le o f t he UN i n t hi s
wa y
m a d e s e ns e f o r a
Fr a nce i nt e r e s t e d i n
m a xi m i zi ng
i t s
lo ng-t e r m a bi li t y
t o i nf lue nce U.S . d e ci -
s i o ns t o us e f o r ce
glo ba lly.
H a d t he Bus h a d m i ni s t r a t i o n's a ct i o ns
r e ga r d i ng
Ir a q
ca us e d Fr a nce t o
pe r ce i ve
a d i r e ct
s e cur i t y
t hr e a t f r o m U.S .
po we r ,
a s s o f t -
ba la nci ng pr o po ne nt s
m a i nt a i n,
t hi s be ha vi o r wo uld ha ve be e n no ns e ns i ca l.
Di s t i ngui s hi ng ba r ga i ni ng
f r o m s o f t
ba la nci ng
i s a ls o cr uci a l be ca us e a
ke y
r e a s o n s t a t e s
m a y
no w s e e k
gr e a t e r ca pa bi li t i e s
i s no t t o che ck U.S .
po we r ,
but
r a t he r t o be i n a be t t e r
po s i t i o n
t o
ba r ga i n
o ve r t he
a ppr o pr i a t e r e s po ns e s
t o s e -
cur i t y cha lle nge s
f r o m o t he r s t a t e s o r a ct o r s . T hi s
i s ,
f o r
e xa m ple ,
a
m a jo r
i m -
pe t us
f o r e nha nce d EU
m i li t a r y ca pa ci t y.
It i s a n a r t i cle o f f a i t h
a m o ng m a ny
Eur o pe a ns
t ha t t he Uni t e d S t a t e s wi ll t a ke t he m
s e r i o us ly o nly
i f
t he y
a r e m o r e
ca pa ble m i li t a r i ly.
T hi s d e s i r e t o i nf lue nce
Wa s hi ngt o n
i s und e r s t a nd a ble . On
a ny gi ve n glo ba l s e cur i t y
i s s ue ,
e a ch
go ve r nm e nt
i s
li ke ly
t o ha ve i t s o wn f a -
vo r e d
a ppr o a ch
t ha t f i t s wi t h i t s
t r a d i t i o ns , i d e a s ,
a nd i nt e r e s t s
(co m m e r ci a l
a nd
s t r a t e gi c).
Mo r e o ve r ,
t he r e a r e s i t ua t i o ns i n whi ch s t a t e s a r e co nce r ne d
t ha t t he m a nne r i n whi ch t he Uni t e d S t a t e s
m i ght
a d d r e s s a
s e cur i t y
i s s ue
co uld r e d o und
ne ga t i ve ly
f o r t he i r o wn
s e cur i t y. Ke y
he r e i s t ha t t he co nce r n i s
no t a bo ut a d i r e ct
s e cur i t y
t hr e a t f r o m t he Uni t e d
S t a t e s ; r a t he r ,
t he
s e cur i t y
co nne ct i o n i s i nd i r e ct "blo wba ck" f r o m va r i o us U.S .
po li ci e s
t ha t i ncr e a s e t he
t hr e a t f r o m o t he r a ct o r s
(e .g.,
Fr a nce 's f e a r t ha t a U.S . i nva s i o n o f
Ir a q
wo uld
o nly
e xa ce r ba t e t he
pr o ble m
o f
a l-Qa i d a -s t yle
t e r r o r i s m ).
T hi s t hr e a t o f i nd i r e ct
blo wba ck i s
ha r d ly i nco ns e que nt i a l,
a nd i t i s no t
s ur pr i s i ng
t ha t o t he r
gr e a t
po we r s
wi ll s o m e t i m e s
ba r ga i n
ha r d wi t h
Wa s hi ngt o n
t o
cha nge
i t s
a ppr o a ch
whe n
t he y
s e e t hi s t hr e a t
e m e r gi ng.
S t a t e s a r e no t i nd i f f e r e nt t o ho w
s e cur i t y
i s s ue s a r e
r e s o lve d ,
a nd s o
m a y
be
wi lli ng
t o i nve s t i n
ca pa bi li t i e s
t ha t
gi ve
t he m a s e a t a t t he
ba r ga i ni ng
t a ble .
Alt ho ugh
t hi s i nce nt i ve f o r
e nha nci ng ca pa bi li t i e s
co nce r ns
s e cur i t y
a nd
i s
d i r e ct ly
co nne ct e d t o U.S .
po li cy,
i t ha s
no t hi ng
t o d o wi t h
ba la nci ng.
Ba l-
a nci ng,
whe t he r ha r d o r
s o f t ,
i s a bo ut
pr o t e ct i o n
f r o m t he
s e cur i t y
t hr e a t
e m a na t i ng d i r e ct ly
f r o m a
po t e nt i a l he ge m o n.
If i t m e a ns
a nyt hi ng,
t he s o f t -
ba la nci ng a r gum e nt
m us t
pr e d i ct
t ha t le s s U.S .
po we r
a nd lo we r i nvo lve m e nt
wi ll r e d uce i nce nt i ve s f o r o t he r s t a t e s t o
ga i n
r e la t i ve
po we r .
If
ba r ga i ni ng
r a t he r t ha n
ba la nci ng
i s i n
pla y,
ho we ve r ,
t he n t he r e i s no r e a s o n t o be li e ve t ha t
s hr i nki ng
e i t he r U.S .
po we r
o r t he le ve l o f i t s
glo ba l e nga ge m e nt
wo uld r e d uce
o t he r s t a t e s ' i nce nt i ve s t o bui ld
up
t he i r
On t he
co nt r a r y,
a
pr e ci pi -
t o us U.S . wi t hd r a wa l f r o m t he wo r ld -a s ne o -i s o la t i o ni s t s a r e no w
ca lli ng
f o r -co uld
ge ne r a t e
ne w
s e cur i t y d yna m i cs
t ha t
pr o d uce
m uch
gr e a t e r
i nce n-
t i ve s f o r o t he r
po we r s
t o i ncr e a s e t he i r
Ult i m a t e ly,
wha t
a ppe a r s
ne w a bo ut t he be ha vi o r
a na lys t s
a r e
ca lli ng
s o f t
S e cur i t y
30:1
1106
ba la nci ng
i s no t i t s
s i gni f i ca nce ,
but i t s
pe r ce i ve d pr o m i ne nce
o n t he
a ge nd a .
Wha t us e d t o be co ns i d e r e d s t a nd a r d
d i plo m a t i c ba r ga i ni ng
i s no w
li ke ly
t r um pe t e d
a s
ba la nci ng
be ca us e r e a l
ba la nci ng
o f t he ki nd t ha t ha s
a ppe a r e d
s o o f t e n
t hr o ugho ut hi s t o r y-co m pe t i ng gr e a t -po we r
a lli a nce s ,
a r m s
bui ld ups ,
br i nkm a ns hi p
cr i s e s ,
a nd t he li ke -wa s cle a r e d o f f t he i nt e r na t i o na l
a ge nd a
i n
1989-91 wi t h t he e nd o f t he Co ld Wa r .
Im po r t a nt ly,
t he
co nce pt
o f
ba la nci ng
r o s e t o
pr o m i ne nce
i n a wo r ld i n whi ch
gr e a t po we r s e cur i t y
r e la t i o ns we r e
d o m i na t e d
by
t he d i r e ct t hr e a t t ha t
t he y po s e d
t o e a ch o t he r .
T o d a y, by
co n-
t r a s t ,
t he li ke li ho o d o f
gr e a t po we r
wa r i s
e xce e d i ngly
lo w. We a k s t a t e s a nd
no ns t a t e s
po s e
t he m a i n
s e cur i t y cha lle nge ,
a nd t he
gr e a t po we r s a r gue pr i -
m a r i ly
o ve r t he be s t
wa y
t o a d d r e s s t he m . Ba la nce o f
po we r t he o r y
ha s no ut i l-
i t y
i n
e xpla i ni ng gr e a t po we r
r e la t i o ns i n t hi s wo r ld .
Co nclus i o n
T hi s a r t i cle s ho ws t ha t t he
ha s no t r a ct i o n. T he
o nly
r e a s o n s o m e
a na lys t s
ha ve co nclud e d o t he r wi s e i s be ca us e
t he y
ha ve f a i le d t o
co ns i d e r a lt e r na t i ve
e xpla na t i o ns .
If i t we r e r e a s o na ble t o
e qua t e
s o f t
ba la nci ng
wi t h
gr e a t po we r po li cy ba r ga i ni ng,
t he n
ba la nci ng
wo uld
f i gur e
a s a co nt r i b-
ut o r ,
but no t a
d r i ve r ,
i n a t le a s t t he
Ir a q
ca s e . As we ha ve
d e m o ns t r a t e d ,
ho w-
e ve r ,
t he r e a r e cr i t i ca l
a na lyt i ca l
co s t s t o
e qua t i ng
t he s e t wo
phe no m e na .
Once
t he d i s t i nct i o n be t we e n s o f t
ba la nci ng
a nd
ba r ga i ni ng
i s
r e co gni ze d ,
t he s t r i ct
co nclus i o n i s t ha t s o f t
ba la nci ng pla ys
no d i s ce r na ble r o le i n
a ny
o f t he f o ur
ca s e s we e xa m i ne .
No ne o f t hi s s ho uld be
i nt e r pr e t e d
t o m e a n t ha t
Wa s hi ngt o n
ca n
s a f e ly i g-
no r e t he vi e ws o f t he o t he r
m a jo r po we r s .
T he f ur t he r o ne lo o ks
be yo nd
t he
i m m e d i a t e s ho r t
t e r m ,
t he cle a r e r t he i s s ue s
be co m e -a m o ng
t he m ,
t he e nvi -
r o nm e nt ,
we a po ns
o f m a s s
d e s t r uct i o n, d i s e a s e ,
m i gr a t i o n,
a nd t he
s t a bi li t y
o f
t he
glo ba l e co no m y.
T he Uni t e d S t a t e s ca nno t
e f f e ct i ve ly
a d d r e s s t he s e i s s ue s
o n i t s
o wn;
a ll o f t he m wi ll
r e qui r e r e pe a t e d d e a li ngs
wi t h
m a ny pa r t ne r s
o ve r
m a ny ye a r s .
It i s a ls o cle a r t ha t o t he r s t a t e s ca n t a ke a ct i o ns t ha t e nd
up
co n-
s t r a i ni ng
t he Uni t e d
S t a t e s ,
s o m e t i m e s
s i gni f i ca nt ly.
T he s e co ns t r a i nt
a ct i o ns ,
ho we ve r , a r e no t a n
o ut gr o wt h
o f ba la nce o f
po we r d yna m i cs
a nd ca nno t be
e xpla i ne d by
t he
a m e nd m e nt t o t ha t
t he o r y.
T he cur r e nt
pr a c-
t i ce o f
us i ng
ba la nce o f
po we r co nce pt s
t o d e s cr i be a nd
e xpla i n
t hi s be ha vi o r i s
co s t ly
i n t he o r e t i ca l a nd
po li cy
t e r m s .
Wi t h
r e ga r d
t o
t he o r y,
t he
wi d e s pr e a d t e nd e ncy
t o s ho e ho r n
po li cy d i s put e s
a nd
ba r ga i ni ng d yna m i cs
i nt o a
s i m pli s t i c ba la nci ng
na r r a t i ve ha s t he e f f e ct o f
ge ne r a t i ng
unwa r r a nt e d
s uppo r t
f o r ba la nce o f
po we r t he o r y.
Our
a na lys i s
H a r d T i m e s
1107
d e m o ns t r a t e s t ha t e ve n
t ho ugh
o t he r s t a t e s s o m e t i m e s und e r t a ke a ct i o ns t ha t
co ns t r a i n t he Uni t e d
S t a t e s ,
a nd
o cca s i o na lly
us e
t o d e -
s cr i be
t he s e
e f f o r t s ,
s uch be ha vi o r d o e s no t va li d a t e ba la nce o f
po we r t he o r y.
In a
uni po la r
wo r ld ,
s o f t
ba la nci ng
ca n be s e e n a s t he f i r s t o bs e r va ble
i m pli ca -
t i o n t ha t t he wo r ld wo r ks t he
wa y
ba la nce o f
po we r t he o r y e xpe ct s
i t t o . T he r e
i s no
e m pi r i ca l
ba s i s f o r t he
s o f t -ba la nci ng a r gum e nt ,
a nd he nce
a ny
e f f o r t t o
i nvo ke i t a s a m e a ns o f
but t r e s s i ng
ba la nce o f
po we r t he o r y
i s f r ui t le s s .
Whe r e s ho uld
s cho la r ly
r e s e a r ch
go
f r o m he r e ? T he
r o s e t o
pr o m i ne nce o nly
i n t he
pa s t
s e ve r a l
ye a r s
a nd ha s no t
ye t
be e n
f ully
f le s he d o ut
t he o r e t i ca lly.
One
o pt i o n
t ha t
m i ght
s e e m
a ppe a li ng
wo uld be t o
d e ve lo p
t he t he o r e t i ca l
lo gi c
o f t he
a r gum e nt
f ur t he r ,
a s Ro be r t
Pa pe
ha s d o ne
i n a r e ce nt
a na lys i s .70 Alt ho ugh
we
ce r t a i nly
und e r s t a nd t he
a ppe a l
o f
t r yi ng
t o
e xpla i n
t he co ns t r a i nt a ct i o ns o f o t he r s t a t e s wi t h a
pa r s i m o ni o us , ge ne r a l-
i za ble
t he o r y,
t he s e
a d va nt a ge s
o f t he
i n no
wa y
m a ke
up
f o r i t s la ck o f
e xpla na t o r y po we r -e ve n
i n ca s e s t ha t
s o f t -ba la nci ng pr o po -
ne nt s ha ve
hi ghli ght e d
t o
t r y
t o f o r wa r d t he i r
a r gum e nt . Alt ho ugh
i t i s bo und
t o
d i s a ppo i nt
t ho s e who ha ve
s o ught
t o r e wo r k ba la nce o f
po we r t he o r y
t o a c-
co m m o d a t e a wo r ld wi t ho ut ha r d
ba la nci ng,
t hi s r e s ult i s no t
s ur pr i s i ng.
Ba l-
a nce o f
po we r t he o r y
wa s
d e ve lo pe d
t o
e xpla i n
t he be ha vi o r o f s t a t e s i n
s ys t e m s
wi t h t wo o r m o r e
po le s
i n whi ch wa r
a m o ng
t he
gr e a t po we r s
wa s a n
e ve r -pr e s e nt d a nge r .
Ne i t he r o f t ho s e co nd i t i o ns
a ppli e s t o d a y:
t he i nt e r na -
t i o na l
s ys t e m
i s
uni po la r ,
a nd t he li ke li ho o d o f wa r
a m o ng
t he
gr e a t po we r s
ha s r e ce d e d be ca us e o f a ho s t o f
f a ct o r s ,
s o m e o f whi ch a r e
hi ghli ght e d by
r e a l-
i s m
(s uch a s t he
ge o gr a phi c
lo ca t i o n o f t he Uni t e d S t a t e s a nd nucle a r
we a p-
o ns ) a nd o t he r s o f whi ch a r e
e m pha s i ze d by
no nr e a li s t t he o r i e s
(s uch a s
e co no m i c
glo ba li za t i o n
a nd
d e m o cr a cy).71 Ana lys t s
wo uld be wi s e t o i nve s t
t he i r t a le nt s i n
i nve s t i ga t i ng
t he no ve l
d yna m i cs
o f
gr e a t po we r ba r ga i ni ng
i n
t o d a y's uni po la r s ys t e m
r a t he r t ha n
s e e ki ng
t o s t r e t ch o ld
a na lyt i ca l co nce pt s
t ha t we r e cr e a t e d t o d e a l wi t h t he
bi po la r
a nd
m ult i po la r s ys t e m s
o f t he
pa s t .72
70.
Pa pe ,
"S o f t
Ba la nci ng."
71. Fo r a
ge ne r a l
d i s cus s i o n,
s e e Ro be r t
Je r vi s ,
"T he o r i e s o f Wa r i n a n Er a o f Gr e a t Po we r
Pe a ce ,"
Am e r i ca n Po li t i ca l S ci e nce
Re vi e w,
Vo l.
96,
No . 1
(Ma r ch 2002),
pp.
1-14. On e co no m i c
glo ba li za t i o n,
s e e
S t e phe n
G.
Br o o ks ,
Pr o d uci ng S e cur i t y:
Mult i na t i o na l
Co r po r a t i o ns ,
Glo ba li za t i o n,
a nd t he
Cha ngi ng
Ca lculus
o f Co nf li ct
(Pr i nce t o n, N.J.:
Pr i nce t o n
Uni ve r s i t y
Pr e s s , 2005). On
ge o gr a phy,
s e e Wi lli a m
C.
Wo hlf o r t h,
"U.S .
S t r a t e gy
i n a
Uni po la r
Wo r ld ,"
i n
Ike nbe r r y,
Am e r i ca
Unr i va le d ,
pp.
98-120. On
nucle a r
we a po ns ,
s e e Ke nne t h N.
Wa lt z,
"Mo r e
Ma y
Be
Be t t e r ,"
i n S co t t D.
S a ga n
a nd
Wa lt z,
T he
S pr e a d o f
Nucle a r
We a po ns :
A De ba t e Re ne we d
(Ne w Yo r k: W.W.
No r t o n, 2003). On
d e m o cr a cy,
s e e
Br uce Rus s e t t a nd
Jo hn
R.
One a l,
T r i a ngula t i ng
Pe a ce :
De m o cr a cy, Int e r d e pe nd e nce ,
a nd Int e r na t i o na l
Or ga ni za t i o ns
(Ne w Yo r k: W.W.
No r t o n, 2001).
72. A us e f ul
s t e p
i n t hi s d i r e ct i o n i s
pr o vi d e d
i n
Vo e t e n,
"Out s i d e
Opt i o ns
a nd t he
Lo gi c
o f S e cu-
r i t y
Co unci l Act i o n."
S e cur i t y
30:1
1108
Re ga r d i ng po li cy,
t hi s a r t i cle r e ve a ls t ha t
s uppo r t e r s
o f a U.S .
cha r a ct e r i ze d
by
r e s t r a i nt s ho uld no t
r e ly
o n
ba la nci ng d yna m i cs
a s
t he y
co n-
s t r uct t he i r
a r gum e nt s .
On
a ny gi ve n
i s s ue ,
m a y
t a ke a m o r e
o r le s s r e s t r a i ne d s t a nce . Much o f t he d e ba t e o n
a ny
i s s ue wi ll
na t ur a lly
co n-
ce r n co s t -be ne f i t a s s e s s m e nt s
s pe ci f i c
t o t ha t i s s ue .
No ne t he le s s ,
whe n
a r gui ng
f o r U.S .
r e s t r a i nt ,
s cho la r s a nd
po li cy a na lys t s r o ut i ne ly a ppe a l
t o t he
s t a ple
ba la nce -o f -po we r pr o po s i t i o n
t ha t t he co s t s o f a
r e la t i ve ly
unr e s t r a i ne d
po li cy
o n s o m e i s s ue t r a ns ce nd t he
s pe ci f i cs
o f t he ca s e a nd i nclud e co unt e r -
ba la nci ng.
In
m a ki ng
t hi s
a r gum e nt , t he y
a r e
f o llo wi ng
a ve ne r a ble t r a d i t i o n:
e xpe ct e d co unt e r ba la nci ng
ha s
hi s t o r i ca lly
be e n t he
s t r o nge s t a r gum e nt
f o r r e -
s t r a i nt i n t he f a ce o f
t e m pt a t i o n.
It i s t r ue t ha t s o f t
ba la nci ng
i s t a i lo r -m a d e a s
a n
a r gum e nt
f o r U.S .
r e s t r a i nt ;
t he
pr o ble m
i s t ha t i t ha s no
e m pi r i ca l s uppo r t .
Our e xa m i na t i o n i nd i ca t e s t ha t o t he r s t a t e s a r e
s i m ply
no t
go i ng
t o f o r ce t he
Uni t e d S t a t e s t o a ct i n a m o r e r e s t r a i ne d m a nne r
by a ct i ng
i n a
s ys t e m a t i c,
co -
o r d i na t e d m a nne r t o che ck U.S .
po we r .
T he r e a r e
m a ny co m pe lli ng
r e a s o ns
why
t he Uni t e d S t a t e s s ho uld
a d o pt
t hi s
co ur s e ,
but s o f t ba la nc-
i ng
i s no t
a m o ng
t he m .

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Hard Times for Soft Balancing

Author(s): Stephen G. Brooks and William C. Wohlforth

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