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Commodities Daily Report

Agricultural Commodities
Thursday | 5
th
June, 2014
www.angelcommodities.com

Content
Chana
Oilseeds
Edible Oils
Spices
Sugar
Cotton

















Angel Commodities Broking Pvt. Ltd.
Registered Office: G-1, Ackruti Trade Centre, Rd. No. 7, MIDC, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 400 093.
Corporate Office: 6th Floor, Ackruti Star, MIDC, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 400 093. Tel: (022) 2921 2000
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Disclai mer: The information and opinions contained in the document have been compil ed from sources beli eved to be reliabl e. The company d oes not warrant its accuracy, complet eness and
correctness. The document is not, and should not be construed as an offer to sell or solicit ation to buy any commodi ties. This document may not be reproduced , distribut ed or published, in whol e or in
part, by any recipi ent hereof for any purpose without prior permission from Angel Commoditi es Broking (P) Ltd. Your f eedback is appreci ated on commodities@angelbroking.com
Prepared by
Anuj Choudhary
Research Anal yst
anuj.choudhary@angel broki ng.com
(022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6132





`

Commodities Daily Report

Agricultural Commodities
Thursday | 5
th
June, 2014
www.angelcommodities.com


News in brief

No Futures Ban: FMC Chairman

Scotching rumours spread by shortsellers that the new government
would ban futures trading of essential commodities, Forward Markets
Commission Chai rman Ramesh Abhishekh on Wednesday clarified that
there was no such proposal. (Source: Economic Times)

Indian Wheat Becomes Un-competitive, Buyers Turns To Black
Sea Region

Wheat cash market decreased sharpl y on Wednesday as buyers
remained sidelined. Export demand has vi rtually come to a hal t and
under diminishing export opportuni ty they want to offl oad stock in
domesti c market. As suppl y from new crop still continues, higher suppl y
against lower demand may further pressuri ze wheat market. There is a
buzz in the market that major i mporters have turned to Black Sea Region
due to cheaper availability there. Russia is offeri ng wheat at $275 per
tonne for long month deli very (August-Sept).Black Sea Region crop is due
in Jul y and wi th span of ti me quotes are likel y to dip further. I ndian
Quotes in May month have been hovering in the region of $280 to $284
per tonne on FOB basis Kandla. However, the current dip in domesti c
market may cut FOB quote from $280-284 to $262-264 per tonne .But i t
too would not ensure export from India as Black Sea region crop would
remain competi ti ve up to August -September. From October onward,
Australian crop would start hi tting the market. Overall si tuation on global
front hints ample suppl y and depressed pri ce for thi rd quarter. In such a
developing scenario I ndian wheat export volume is bound to decrease.
Jul y onward wheat pri ces start fi rming up in the market as usual and i t
would make wheat export tougher for the Indian exporters. Overall
situation remains depressing on wheat export front for I ndia. (Source:
Agriwatch)

World Cotton Trade Expected To Decline

World cotton trade is expected to noti ce ti mid senti ments in coming
season. The volume of cotton traded worldwide is expected to decline to
8.1 million tons, noti cing a fall of 8%, said International cotton advisory
committee (I CAC). Reason for the same is fall in shipment to China whi ch
was 5.3 million tons in 2011/12 and expected 2.1 million tons in 2014/15.
World consumption on other hand is projected to increase by 3% to 24.2
million tons in 2014/15. As far as India is concerned, the consumption in
country increased to 4.8 million tons in 2012/13, wi tnessing a growth of
12% due to revision of Chinese cotton poli cy and i ts expected to grow by
7% to 5.4 million tons in 2014/15.I n the coming season exports from
Greece and CFA zone will notice growth of 6% and 3% respecti vel y but at
the same time exports from the major producers and exporters would
decrease. USA cotton export is expected to decrease by 1% to 2.6 million
tons, Australia export is likel y to fall by 23% to 8 lakh tons and India
cotton export is forecasted to fall to level of 1.1 million tons, noti cing a
decline of 21%. (Source: Business Standard)

Hike in palm oil duty unlikely this Budget

The new government will not raise duties on palm oil i n the short term,
despi te demands by domesti c oilseed processors to cut cheap imports
from the worl d's top producer I ndonesia, offi cial sources said on
Wednesday. India is the world's leading cooking oil i mporter and PM
Narendra Modi 's government is expected to adopt poli cies to promote
domesti c oilseed production, but concerns over inflation mean i t will not
act qui ckl y to raise i mport duties, said one of the sources with the food
mi nistry. (Source: Financial Express)

Brazil Will Increase Biodiesel Requirement In Diesel Blend
Market Highlights (% change) as on June 4, 2014

Last Prev. day WoW MoM YoY
Sensex 24806 -0.21 1.02 10.72 26.91
Nifty 7402 -0.18 0.99 10.57 25.05
INR/$ 59.28 -0.10 0.57 -1.50 4.93
Nymex Crude Oil - $/bbl 102.64 -0.02 -0.08 2.89 10.00
Comex Gold - $/oz 1244 -0.02 -1.21 -4.50 -10.96
Source: Reut ers


Pepper loses sting as imports flood N. India

Spot pepper pri ces fell on Wednesday on slack demand due to the
availability of imported pepper in upcountry markets. No acti vities took
place on the national and regional exchanges. North I ndian markets are
fl ooded wi th imported material sold at Rs.675 a kg on 30 days credi t,
market sources told Business Line. Karnataka sellers were offering the
commodi ty at Rs.675 a kg on a cash-and-carry basis. But there were no
buyers as the material was available on credi t at the same rate, they said.
India has imported around 5,000 tonnes of pepper from Vietnam, and
wi th other ori gins put together, the total could be 7,000 tonnes during
January-May this year, they said. On the other hand, heat wave in North
India has weakened upcountry demand, they said. Spot pri ces dropped
by Rs.500 a quintal to Rs.68,100 (ungarbled) and Rs.70,100 (garbled) a
quintal on limi ted acti vi ties. I ndian export pri ces moved up to $12,100 a
tonne (c&f) for Europe and $12,350 (c&f) for the US, but continued to
remain totally out pri ced.. (Source: Business Line)

UP heat on sugar mills over arrears

After the Allahabad Hi gh Court rap over massi ve arrears on payments to
farmers for sugarcane sales of about 8,500 crore, the Uttar Pradesh
government has turned the heat on pri vate sugar mills. The government
has started the process of registering Fi rst Information Reports ( FI R) and
issuing Recovery Certi fi cates ( RCs) against defaul ting mills. UP cane
commissioner Subhash Chandra Sharma told Business Standard 36 FIRs
had been lodged and 13 RCs issued against defaul ting uni ts. An RC
empowers the distri ct administration to seize assets for recovery. The
actual action depends upon the amount to be recovered. I have
convened a meeting of all mills in the pri vate and cooperati ve sector
tomorrow to discuss the payment issue, he said, adding that mills were
cooperating and had assured about settling the payment. (Source: Business
Standard)

Govt must improve supply, storage of crops to counter El Nino:
Assocham

Industry body Assocham has asked the government to take measures to
improve suppl y and storage facili ties for the country's crop produce, in
view of the likelihood of defi ci t rainfall due to the El Nino effect. "We
recommend the government to i mmediatel y announce steps to control
food inflation in view of the impending El Nino and the cascading
negati ve affect i t will have on crop production," Assocham President
Rana Kapoor said. "The government needs to make some key
announcements on suppl y side management, logistic management,
including warehousing, and i mplement changes in the Agri culture
Produce Market Commi ttee (APMC) Act to curb hoarding," he added.
After four years of normal and above-normal monsoon, I ndia is expected
to have below normal monsoon this year wi th rai nfall projected to be 95
per cent, a news whi ch is disappointi ng for the farming community.
(Source: Financial Express)

U.S. corn ratings top market forecasts on ideal weather

The U.S. corn crop was flourishing due to rising temperatures and
plenti ful soil moisture across the U.S. Midwest, government data
`

Commodities Daily Report

Agricultural Commodities
Thursday | 5
th
June, 2014
www.angelcommodities.com



Market Highlights as on June 4, 2014
% change
Unit Last Prev day WoW MoM YoY
Chana Spot - NCDEX `/qtl
2844 1.56 1.20 -4.81 -13.54
Chana- NCDEX June Fut `/qtl
2855 0.95 1.06 -6.24 -9.85
Source: Reut ers

Spread Matrix as on June 4, 2014
Closing 20-June-14 18-July-14 20-Aug-14
Spot
2843.75 11.25 74.25 141.25
20-June-14
2855 0 63 130
18-July-14
2918 - 0 67
20-Aug-14
2985 - - 0



Technical Chart - Chana NCDEX June contract

Source: Tel equote


Chana

Chana futures traded on a positi ve note for the second consecuti ve day
on extended short coverings along wi th bargain buyi ng and settled 0.95%
hi gher. Pri ces have declined sharpl y over the last few days on account of
sluggish demand coupled wi th increased sowing of summer pulses,
hi gher arri vals and rising stocks on the exchange warehouses. Also, fears
that the government may take some steps to control inflati on and may
curb trading in essential commodities further pressuri zed pri ces. The 3
rd

Advance Estimates pegged total pulses production for 2013-14 at 19.6
mn tn, marginall ylower from 19.8 mn tn earlier.

Procurement of chana in Rajasthan by the NAFED was delayed by a
couple of weeks due to poor quality and l ower arri vals. Madhya Pradesh
State Cooperati ve Marketing Federation has bought 26,000 tn under the
market intervention scheme. (Source: Factiva cited Cogencis as saying)

There was a delay in the harvesting of the chana crop along with crop
damage in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Maharashtra and Andhra
Pradesh due to unseasonal rainfall as well as hailstorms .

As per the data released by the ministry of Agri culture, area under Rabi
Pulses stood at 161.9 lakh ha as against 152.65 lakh ha last year. Chana
sowing is reported at 10.21 mn ha compared to 9.51 mn ha during the
same period last year. Sowing of summer pulses is reported at 1.17 mn
ha as against 589,000 ha last year.

Demand supply scenario

Supplies of Chana since past one year has been ample as the country
reaped bumper Chana output in 2012-13 season. For 2013-14 too
government in thei r thi rd advance esti mates has projected record output
of at 9.9 mn tonnes in the Rabi season.

Chana would however, continue to retain the tag of largest produced
pulse crop in I ndia holding a lions share of 48-50 percent i n total I ndian
Pulses production.

According to India Pulses and Grains Associati on, Apr-Dec13 stood at
import 2.4 mn tn vs 2.8 mn tn last year. In value terms, I ndia i mported
$2.3 billion of pulses in 2012-13, almost 28% higher over $1.85 billion in
the preceding year. However, i mports in 2013-14 season may decline
11% to 3.2 mn tn on expectations of higher output.

According to APEDA, Pulses exports (kabuli chana) between Apr-Feb 14
rose 228% to 517,095 tn as against 157,799 tn between Apr-Feb 13.

Outlook

Chana futures may trade on a mi xed note. Lower level buying coupled
wi th pi ckup in demand from the millers and lower pulses target for 2014-
15 on forecast of below normal monsoon by the I MD may support pri ces.
however, weak demand, rising stocks on the exchange warehouses,
hi gher sowing of summer pulses and hi gher output in 2013-14 may cap
the upside and pressurize pri ces at hi gher levels.

Technical Levels valid for June 5, 2014
Contract Unit Support Resistance
Chana NCDEX June Futures `/qtl 2805-2835 2885-2910

`

Commodities Daily Report

Agricultural Commodities
Thursday | 5
th
June, 2014
www.angelcommodities.com






Market Highlights as on June 4, 2014

% Change

Unit Last
Prev
day WoW MoM YoY
Soybean Spot- NCDEX `/qtl
4322 0.23 -4.00 -9.39 12.49
Soybean- NCDEX June Fut `/qtl
4421 0.07 -3.70 -6.67 17.52
Soybean-CBOT July Fut USc/Bsh
1483 0.08 -1.02 0.12 -3.03
RM Seed Spot- NCDEX `/qtl
3427 0.40 -0.67 -0.96 -2.35
RM Seed- NCDEX June Fut `/qtl
3404 0.44 -0.29 -2.60 -2.35
Source: Reut ers
Soybean Spread Matrix

as on June 4, 2014
Closing 20-June-14 18-July-14 20-Oct-14
Spot
4322 99 -1 -725
20-June-14
4421 0 -100 -824
18-July-14
4321 - 0 -724
20-Oct-14
3597 - - 0




Mustard Seed Spread Matrix

as on June 4, 2014
Closing 20-June-14 18-July-14 20-Aug-14
Spot
3426.9 -22.9 73.1 118.1
20-June-14
3404 0 96 141
18-July-14
3500 - 0 45
20-Aug-14
3545 - - 0

Technical Chart Soybean NCDEX June contract


Technical Chart Mustard Seed NCDEX June contract

Source: Tel equote

Soybean
Soybean futures traded on a mi xed note on Wednesday. Weak soy
meal export coupled wi th favorable monsoon condi tions and fears that
the government may take some steps to curb inflation pressuri zed
pri ces. However, pri ces recovered from lower levels on short coverings
and ti ght supplies settled 0.07% hi gher.

The Ministry of Agri culture i n i ts 3
nd
Advance Estimates, projected
2013-14 soybean output at 11.9 mn tn as against 14.67 mn tn in 2012-
13. Soy meal exports in April 14 have declined to 89,883 tn, down
9.62% m-o-m and 59.73% lower y-o-y on poor demand and lower
availability for crushing due to higher Indian quotes for forei gn buyers.
I MDs has forecast of below normal rains whi ch may impact the yield.

Soybean was in a bull rall y since January on the back of suppl y crunch
of this oilseed along wi th the bullish overseas markets. Concerns over
below normal monsoon season, emergence of El -Nino and shortage of
seeds for kharif 2014 sowing further fueled the al ready rising pri ces.

International Markets

CBOT Soybean traded on a mi xed note on Wednesday. Good sowing
progress coupled with favorable weather condi tions and forecast of
rains have kept pri ces under check. However, pri ces recovered from
lower levels on short coverings and settled 0.08% higher.

The USDA monthl y crop report forecast 2013-14 end stocks at 130 mn
bsh against previous months forecast of 135 mn bsh. The report
forecast Brazil output at 91 mn tn against estimates of 87.23 mn tn and
Argentina output unchanged at 54 mn tn. Soybean planting is 78%
complete compared to 5 yr avg 70%. The planting intenti on report
forecast record high 81.493 mn acres to be covered under soy beans
for 2014-15. According to NOPA, soybean crushing in April was
reported at 132.667 mn bsh, above expectations of 132.26 mn bsh.

Conab raised Brazil output estimate to 86.57 mn tn against i ts earlier
forecast of 86.08 mn tn in April. Buenos Ai res Grains Exchange upped
Argentinas soy harvest to 55.5 mn tn from 54.5 mn tn. China Jan-April
soybean imports increased 41.2% y-o-y at 21.85 mn tn. (Source: Reuters)

Outlook
Soybean futures are expected to trade on a mi xed to negati ve note.
Weak overseas markets and poor soy meal export demand may keep
pri ces under check. However, ti ght supplies and lower availability of
seeds for sowing may support pri ces at lower levels.

Rape/mustard Seed

Mustard seed futures traded on a positi ve note extending previ ous
days gains on meal export demand and a cut in the output esti mates
and settled 0.44% hi gher on Wednesday. Pri ces have declined over the
last few days tracking weak edi ble oilseeds.

Mustard meal export surged 132% to 125,872 tn in Apr 14 compared
to 54,077 tn i n Apr 13. Sowing of mustard seed in 2013-14 stood at
7.13 mn ha as against 6.73 mn ha last year. Agri cul ture ministry in its
3rd advance estimates pegged 2013-14 mustard output at 7.8mn tn,
down 2.9% compared to 8.03 mn tn in 2012-13.
Outlook
Mustard seed may trade on a mi xed note. Lower output estimates and
meal export demand may support pri ces. However, weak edible
oilseeds and arri val pressure may pressurize pri ces at hi gher levels.
Technical Levels valid for June 5, 2014
Contract Unit Support Resistance
Soybean NCDEX June Futures `/qtl 4355-4390 4455-4485
RM Seed NCDEX June Futures `/qtl 3360-3385 3425-3445

`

Commodities Daily Report

Agricultural Commodities
Thursday | 5
th
June, 2014
www.angelcommodities.com

Market Highlights as on June 4, 2014

% Change

Unit Last Prev day WoW MoM YoY
Ref Soy oil Spot-
NCDEX
`/10 kg 672.00 0.73 -3.03 -7.32 -5.69
Ref Soy oil- NCDEX
June Fut
`/10 kg 675.50 1.84 -0.44 -5.88 -4.25
Soybean Oil- CBOT-
July Fut
USc/ Bushel
39.25 2.35 -0.96 -4.94 -19.22
CPO-Bursa Malaysia
June Fut
MYR/Tonne 2440 1.67 -2.67 -8.27 4.27
CPO- MCX June
Futures
`/10 kg 512.80 1.56 -2.21 -7.87 6.19
Source: Reut ers
Refined Soy Oil Spread Matrix

as on June 4, 2014
Closing 20-June-14 18-July-14 20-Aug-14
Spot
672 3.5 -11.85 -19.3
20-June-14
675.5 0 -15.35 -22.8
18-July-14
660.15 - 0 -7.45
20-Aug-14
652.7 - - 0

CPO Spread Matrix

as on June 4, 2014
Closing 30-June-14 31-July-14 28-Aug-14
30-June-14
512.8 0 -3.1 -4
31-July-14
509.7 - 0 -0.9
28-Aug-14
508.8 - - 0

Technical Chart Ref Soy Oil NCDEX June contract


Technical Chart Crude Palm Oil MCX June contract
Source: Tel equote

Refined Soy Oil

Refined soy oil futures traded on a posi ti ve note on Wednesday
taking cues from posi ti ve overseas soy oil pri ces and settled 1.84%
hi gher. CBOT Soy oil recovered from l ower levels on short coverings
settled 2.35% hi gher. Pri ces declined over the last few days as
increased crushing for soy meal has lead to a suppl y glut si tuation.

According to NOPA, Soy oil stocks increased to 2.058 bn lbs from
2.023 bn in March and forecast of 1.990 bn lbs. (Source: Reuters)

India meet 50-55 percent of i ts edible consumption through imports
and thus rupee factor is a major determi nant of edible oil pri ces.

As per the data released by the Sol vent Extractors' Association of
India Imports of vegetable oils, including non-edible oils in April
declined 27.17% y-o-y to 832,760 tn.

Crude Soy oil imports in April 14 rose 121% to 113,000 tn compared
to 50,999 tn last year. Stockpiles of edible oil at ports on May 1
stood at 465,000 tn, the trade body said, l ower than 490,000 tn on
April 1.

Outlook

Soy oil futures may trade on a mi xed note. Bargain buying may be
seen at lower levels. However, no sharp upside is seen as weak
overseas markets and higher i mports may keep pri ces under check.
Pri ces may also take cues from movement i n the Rupee.

Crude Palm Oil

CPO Futures traded on a posi ti ve note on Wednesday on short
coverings as well as positi ve overseas palm oil pri ces and settled
1.56% higher.

Palm oil Futures on KLCE recovered from lower levels on Wednesday
on short coverings and settled 1.67% hi gher. Pri ces have declined
over the last few days on lower than expected exports and
increased inventories. There are expectations of i mprovement in
demand ahead of Ramadan.

According to Malaysian Pal m oil Board, exports increased 1.18% in
April against March, while palm oil output jumped 3.92% and the
end stocks increased 4.6%.

Exports of Malaysian palm oil products in May i ncreased 7.8% to
1,315,952 tonnes from 1,220,882 tonnes shipped in April . Malaysia
has set the export tax for Palm oil for May at 5.5%, unchanged as
against 5.5% in April . Indonesia has kept export tax for Palm oil for
June at 12% unchanged as against May.

India's crude palm oil imports increased 87.24% in March to 438,122
tn from 233,987 tn last year.

Outlook

Palm oil futures are expected to trade on a mi xed to negati ve note.
Weak Malaysian palm oil may keep pri ces under downside pressure.
However, short coverings may be seen at l ower levels. Pri ces may
also take cues from movement in the Rupee.

Technical Outlook valid for June 5, 2014
Contract Unit Support Resistance
Soy Oil NCDEX June Futures `/qtl 668-671 677-681
CPO MCX June Futures `/qtl 505-509 516-520


`

Commodities Daily Report

Agricultural Commodities
Thursday | 5
th
June, 2014
www.angelcommodities.com

Market Highlights as on June 4, 2014

% Change
Unit Last
Prev
day WoW MoM YoY
Jeera Spot- NCDEX `/qtl 11099 -0.27 0.44 4.45 -17.73
Jeera- NCDEX June Fut `/qtl 11010 -0.27 0.32 5.31 -15.92
Turmeric Spot- NCDEX `/qtl 5833 -0.36 0.10 -10.29 -0.50
Turmeric- NCDEX June Fut `/qtl 6018 -2.18 -0.03 -10.23 5.91
Source: Reut ers
Jeera Spread Matrix

as on June 4, 2014
Closing 20-June-14 18-July-14 20-Aug-14
Spot
11098.6 -88.6 36.4 196.4
20-June-14 11010 0 125 285
18-July-14
11135 - 0 160
20-Aug-14 11295 - - 0

Turmeric Spread Matrix

as on June 4, 2014
Closing 20-June-14 18-July-14 20-Aug-14
Spot
5833.35 184.65 296.65 438.65
20-June-14 6018 0 112 254
18-July-14 6130 - 0 142
20-Aug-14 6272 - - 0

Technical Chart Jeera NCDEX June contract



Technical Chart Turmeric NCDEX June contract


Source: Tel equote
Spices
Jeera
Jeera futures traded on a mi xed note on Wednesday. Demand from
the domesti c as well as overseas markets supported pri ces. However,
arri val pressure and comfortable supplies in the physi cal markets on
the back of record output as well as huge carryover stocks capped
sharp gains and settled 0.27% lower.

Area under jeera in Gujarat was reported at 455,000 ha as against
335,200 ha last year while about 390,000 ha were sown in Rajasthan.

Geo-poli ti cal tensions in Syria and Turkey have led to a suppl y crunch
in the global markets raising suppl y concerns from the two major
exporting countries . Export orders are di verted to I ndia. Producti on is
also expected to fall in Syria and Turkey due to crop failure.

Arrivals, production and Exports

Arri vals in Unjha were reported at 13,000 bags on Wednesday. (Source:
Agri watch). Exports of Jeera between Apr-Dec 2013 stood at 96,500 tn,
up 89% as against 50,944 tn between Apr-Dec 2012. (Source: Spices Board)

According to I BIS Indias Jeera exports have crossed 1,00,000 tonnes
till Feb14. Production of Jeera i n 2013-14 is expected around 45-50
lakh bags (55 kgs each), higher than 40-45 lakh bags last year.

Outlook

Jeera futures may trade on a mi xed to positi ve note. Demand from the
domesti c as well as overseas markets may support pri ces. However,
comfortable supplies and higher arri vals may cap sharp gains.

Turmeric

Turmeri c futures traded on a negati ve note on Wednesday on weak
demand due to arri vals of poor quality crop i n the physi cal markets
coupled wi th huge carryover stocks and expectations of a better
sowing this season and settled 2.18% lower.

Production, Arrivals and Exports

Arri vals in Ni zamabad and Erode mandi were reported at 12,000 bags
and 3,000 bags on Wednesday. Sowing of Turmeri c in AP for the 2013-
14 season is reported at 0.53 lakh ha, as against 0.68 lakh ha last year
and a normal sowing of 0.68 lakh ha.

Producti on in 2013-14 is reported around 40 lakh bags , down by 10-
15%. Exports between Apr-Dec 2013 stood at 58,000 tn, higher than
49,526 tn in Apr-Dec 2012. (Source: Spic es Board)

Outlook

Turmeri c futures are expected to trade on a negati ve note. Weak
demand due to poor quali ty arri vals as well as huge carryover stocks
may keep turmeri c pri ces under check. However, lower level demand
and expectations of overseas enqui ries may support pri ces at lower
levels.

Technical Outlook Valid for June 5, 2014

Unit Support Resistance
Jeera NCDEX June Futures `/qtl 10820-10910 11065-11150
Turmeric NCDEX June Futures `/qtl 5980-5950 6040-6120

`

Commodities Daily Report

Agricultural Commodities
Thursday | 5
th
June, 2014
www.angelcommodities.com


Market Highlights as on June 4, 2014


% Change
Unit Last Prev. day WoW MoM YoY
Sugar Spot-
NCDEX `/qtl
3043 0.68 -0.15 -5.35 -0.46
Sugar M- NCDEX
June Fut `/qtl
3007 0.07 0.13 -6.18 -1.15
Sugar No 5- Liffe-
Aug Fut $/tonne
465.4 -0.45 -0.39 -1.08 -2.41
Sugar No 11-ICE
July Fut $/tonne
378.67 -0.87 -0.41 -2.35 4.03
Source: Reut ers

Sugar Spread Matrix


as on June 4, 2014
Closing 20-June-14 18-July-14 20-Aug-14
Spot
3042.5 -35.5 -71.5 -64.5
20-June-14
3007 0 -36 -29
18-July-14
2971 - 0 7
20-Aug-14
2978 - - 0


Technical Chart - Sugar NCDEX June contract


Source: Tel equote

Sugar
Sugar futures traded on a flat to positi ve note on Wednesday on short
coverings and settled 0.07% hi gher. Pri ces have declined on weak
demand coupled wi th rising supplies and lack of fresh export demand.
I SMA seeks a hike in import duty from 15% to 40% to protect the
domesti c sugar industry.

According to a ci rcular released by NCDEX, some changes have been
made in the contract specifi cations in Oct14 expi ry futures and
thereafter. Kindl y refer the ci rcular for further details.

Pri ces were on a bullish trend since February on demand from the bulk
consumers coupled with lower output this season and forecast of below
normal rains by the I MD.

The government, i n i ts noti fi cati on, has cut the subsidies on raw sugar
export from Rs. Rs. 3300/tn to Rs. 2777/tn for the months of April and
May 14.

I SMA has reported that crushing for the Oct Sept 14 season has ended
and sugar production stands at 23.9 mn tn, against 24.7 mt last year.
Exports for the season is expected at 1.9-2 mn tonnes as against 8 mn tn
last year.

The government has raised the FRP on cane for the 2014-15 season to
Rs.220/qtl from Rs. 210/qtl.

Domestic Production and Exports
According to the latest estimates by ISMA, production is estimated 23.8
mn tn for 2013-14 season A good monsoon last season led to higher
output for fourth consecuti ve year in row in 2013-14.

I SMA has estimated that the opening balance as on October 1, 2013 (for
the new season 2013-14), at around 88 lakh tonne, whi ch is about 20
lakh tonne more than the normal opening balance.

Global Sugar Updates

Gl obal sugar pri ces traded on negati ve note on Wednesday. A pi ckup in
output from Brazil coupled wi th higher gl obal stocks kept pri ces under
downside pressure. However, tight US supplies coupled wi th drought
fears in Brazil , expectations of pi ckup in demand and chances of
di version of cane towards ethanol supported pri ces at lower levels. Liffe
as well as I CE Raw sugar settled 0.45% and 0.87% lower respecti vel y.

According to FC Stone, Centre South sugar output for 2014-15 season is
forecast at 33.1 mn tn, while sugarcane crushing is seen at 585.85 mn tn.

According to UNI CA, Brazilian mills produced 3.41 mn tn of sugar till 1
st

half of May compared to 3.78 mn tn last year.

Outlook

Sugar futures are expected to trade on a mi xed note. Higher supplies,
lack of fresh export orders and weak demand may continue to keep
pri ces under downside pressure. However, demand from bulk consumers
may support pri ces at lower levels.

Technical Outlook valid for June 5, 2014
Contract Unit Support Resistance
Sugar NCDEX June Futures `/qtl 2980-2990 3010-3020


`

Commodities Daily Report

Agricultural Commodities
Thursday | 5
th
June, 2014
www.angelcommodities.com





Market Highlights as on June 4, 2014


% Change
Unit Last Prev. day WoW MoM YoY
NCDEX Kapas Apr 15 `20 kgs 938 -0.58 4.45 -4.19 -13.59
MCX Cotton June `/Bale 19440 -0.56 2.48 -8.69 2.97
ICE Cotton July USc/Lbs 86.08 -1.47 1.43 -8.61 1.80
Cot look A Index 91.9 0.93 2.68 -3.57 0.44
Source: Reut ers


Cotton Spread Matrix as on June 4, 2014
Closing 30-June-14 31-July-14 31-Oct-14
30-June-14
19440 0 230 50
31-July-14 19670 - 0 -180
31-Oct-14 19490 - - 0


Technical Chart - Kapas NCDEX April 2015 contract



Technical Chart - Cotton MCX June contract

Source: Tel equote
Kapas
Cotton complex traded on a negati ve note on Wednesday days on
concerns over global demand, weak cotton yarn exports to Chi na and
hi gher output as forecast in the 3
rd
advance estimates coupled wi th weak
overseas markets. NCDEX Kapas as well as MCX Cotton futures settled
0.58% and 0.56% lower respecti vel y. However, demand from the
domesti c mills supported pri ces at lower levels. Cotton Association of
India has revised its 2013-14 output marginall y higher from i ts previous
estimates .

In the domesti c markets, although production is estimated higher,
arri vals so far remain si gnifi cantl y lower compared to last year. This is
because farmers were holding back thei r produce in anti cipation of
hi gher returns.

Domestic Production and Consumption

According to 3
rd
Advance Estimates Cotton output for 2013-14 is
projected at 36.5 mn bales against 34.22 mn bales last year. Cotton
Association of I ndia estimates 2013-14 cotton crop at 383.5 lakh bales
against earlier estimates of 381.3 lakh bales. 2012-13 output stood at
356.75 lakh bales.

As per latest CAB esti mates, total arri vals as on 14th May 2014 were
reported at 295.16 l k bales as against 308.5 duri ng the corresponding
peri od in the previous year, a decline of about 4.32 percent.

India is esti mated to export less cotton this year (9 million bales) on
expected drop in demand from the largest consumer, China. Domestic
consumption is expected to grow at a normal pace while imports are
expected to increase due to cheaper availabili ty of cotton in the global
markets. Thus, suppl y side fundamentals (42.7 mn bales) are comfortable
to meet the domesti c as well as export demand (38.7 mn bales) keeping
domesti c cotton pri ces stable.

Global Cotton Updates

I CE Cotton futures traded on a negati ve note on Wednesday on forecast
of rains in Texas and export concerns and settled 1.47% l ower. i mproved
planting, demand concerns from China coupled wi th favorable sowing
condi tions and USDA report forecasting hi gher i nventories next season
added to the downside pressure. Pri ces gained earlier this week on
concerns over dry weather in Texas. Chinas April i mports declined 47.9%
to 224,400 tns y-o-y.

According to the USDA weekl y crop progress report, Cotton planting is
74% complete v/s 62% last week and 5 year average 81%. The USDA
report forecast end stocks in line wi th expectati ons to 2.5 mn bales.

I CAC has cut forecast a cut in the global output as well as consumption.
However, the decline i n the consumption is hi gher than the output,
whi ch may resul t in higher stocks.

Outlook

Cotton pri ces are expected to trade on a negati ve note. Global demand
concerns, hi gher output, lower cotton yarn exports and comfortable
supplies may keep pri ces under check. However, lower level demand
coupled wi th forecast of below normal rains in the 2014 monsoon season
and declining supplies in the physi cal markets may support pri ces at
lower levels.

Technical Outlook valid for June 5, 2014
Contract Unit Support Resistance
Kapas NCDEX April 15 Fut `/20 kgs 920-928 946-955
Cotton MCX June Futures `/bale 19170-19310 19580-19730