A Pox on All Their Houses

Neither Israel nor Hamas can win in

Gaza, but the biggest loser is the
Palestinian Authority.
BY HUSSEIN IBISH-JULY 18, 2014
With Israel having launhe! a signi"ant gr#un! #$erati#n
in %a&a '#ll#(ing Ha)as*s re'usal #' an Eg+$tian ease-"re $r#$#sal, the
latest (ave #' Israeli-,alestinian h#stilities is intensi'+ing +et again- .# (hat
en! an! 'r#) (hat /eginning, h#(ever, is unlear- While /#th Israel an!
Ha)as have $u/lil+ state! an! i)$liit #/0etives, neither si!e see)s
$#ise! t# ahieve an+ signi"ant strategi gains-
In the )ean(hile, )#re than 210 ,alestinians in %a&a, )an+ #' the)
ivilians, inlu!ing hil!ren, have /een 2ille! -- as (ell as at least t(#
Israelis -- an! the gri) tall+ #' !eath an! !estruti#n is #nl+ li2el+ t#
inrease as l#ng as the see)ingl+ $#intless "ghting !rags #n-
Israel*s state! g#als t# 3rest#re !eterrene3 an! !egra!e -- i' n#t eli)inate
-- Ha)as*s r#2et a$a/ilities are straight'#r(ar!, /ut unahieva/le unless
the #untr+ (ere t# 'ull+ re#u$+ %a&a an! reverse the 3unilateral
!isengage)ent3 enate! /+ Israeli ,ri)e 4inister 5riel Shar#n in 2006-
7#reign 4inister 5vig!#r Lie/er)an has alle! '#r suh a re#u$ati#n, /ut
,ri)e 4inister Ben0a)in Netan+ahu !is)isse! these i!eas as 3/a2gr#un!
n#ise-3 .here a$$ears t# /e n# real $#ssi/ilit+ that Israel*s )ilitar+ (ill #ne
again $#lie the streets #' %a&a as an ar)+ #' !iret #u$ati#n- Un!er
suh iru)stanes, even given the signi"ant gr#un! #$erati#ns launhe!
#n .hurs!a+, all Israel an reall+ !# is single #ut st#res #' r#2ets, seure #r
!e)#lish launhing sites, !estr#+ tunnel in'rastruture, an! target the
h#)es an! #8es #' Ha)as #8ials an! )e)/ers-
5t "rst glane, suh an i)$erative )ight see) rati#nal, sine Ha)as an!
#ther e9tre)ist gr#u$s in %a&a have /een "ring )issiles at n#t #nl+
s#uthern Israel /ut virtuall+ the (h#le #untr+ an! even $arts #' the
#u$ie! ,alestinian territ#ries- H#(ever, eah ti)e invasi#n has /een the
res$#nse t# )issile atta2s 'r#) %a&a, Israel has 'aile! t# "n! a l#ng-ter)
-- #r even a )i!-ter) -- re)e!+- 5n! eah ti)e, Ha)as has e)erge! /etter
e:ui$$e! an! )#re tehniall+ a$a/le-
.he i)$lausi/ilit+ #' Israel*s av#(e! g#al #' !estr#+ing Ha)as*s r#2et
a$a/ilities ;s#)e #8ials even s$ea2 in ter)s #' %a&a /eing
3!e)ilitari&e!3< is all the greater given that )#st #' the )issiles Ha)as is
urrentl+ using are atuall+ )anu'ature! in the %a&a Stri$ rather than
i)$#rte! 'r#) Iran- Iranian e9$ertise an! s$are $arts are un!#u/te!l+
ruial, /ut sine Ha)as ;an! $#ssi/l+ #ther )ilitant gr#u$s in %a&a< is
)anu'aturing its #(n r#2ets -- even (hen Eg+$t has ensure! that
s)uggling is )#re !i8ult than ever -- there*s ever+ reas#n t# e9$et that
)#re an /e )anu'ature! l#all+ an! in sh#rt #r!er-
Israel*s #nun!ru) gets even )#re #)$liate! (hen #ne #nsi!ers that
(hile it (ants t# !egra!e Ha)as*s a$a/ilities an! stri2e a /l#( at the
#rgani&ati#n, it !#es n#t (ish Ha)as t# 'all 'r#) $#(er in %a&a- Israel 'ears
the $#tential '#r anarh+ #r )#re e9tre)e gr#u$s e)erging in a $#(er
vauu) (ere Ha)as t# #lla$se- S#, in a!!iti#n t# $ursuing a strateg+ that
has $r#ven t# /e ine=etive, Israel has g#als in %a&a that are greatl+
iru)sri/e! /+ its #unterintuitive, /ut un!enia/le, $re'erene '#r a
(ea2ene! Ha)as t# re)ain in $#(er-
Ha)as, t##, has a l#ng list #' g#als, all #' (hih als# see) t# /e #ut #'
reah- 5 2e+ !e)an! is that Israel release 3seurit+ $ris#ners3 (h# ha!
/een $art #' the %ila! Shalit s(a$ /ut (ere rearreste! in a West Ban2
ra2!#(n a 'e( (ee2s ag#- It*s virtuall+ i)$#ssi/le t# i)agine Israel
agreeing t# this-
4#st #' Ha)as*s #ther 2e+ !e)an!s are ai)e! at #untries #ther than
Israel- 7#r Ha)as, this #n>it is a/#ut tr+ing t# /rea2 #ut #' an i)$#ssi/le
situati#n in (hih it has '#un! itsel' in reent )#nths- It is /r#2e- It is
is#late!- 5n! internal !ivisi#ns an! its gr#(ing un$#$ularit+ in %a&a /e!evil
the gr#u$- Ha)as )a+ have h#$e! that the 3unit+ g#vern)ent3 agree)ent
(ith 7atah (#ul! strengthen its han! an! give it a ne( '##th#l! in the West
Ban2- But as it ha$$ene!, Ha)as gaine! n#thing 'r#) the agree)ent-
But t# un!erstan! the r##t #' Ha)as*s urrent 'rustrati#n, #ne )ust l##2
n#t n#rtheast 'r#) %a&a, /ut (est- .he e$ienter #' Ha)as*s gr#(ing
!es$erati#n lies in the $#liies #' the ne( Eg+$tian g#vern)ent- 7#ll#(ing
the #uster #' '#r)er 4usli) Br#therh##! ,resi!ent 4#ha)e! 4#rsi, the
Eg+$tian )ilitar+ s(e$t int# Sinai an! the /#r!er area (ith %a&a- .he+
re$#rte!l+ 2ille! u$ t# t(# !#&en Ha)as #$eratives in Sinai (h#) the+
/elieve! (ere #$erating in ah##ts (ith insurgent gr#u$s, an! virtuall+ shut
!#(n Ha)as*s s)uggling tunnel net(#r2- In the ensuing (ee2s, as the ne(
g#vern)ent #' 5/!el 7attah el-Sisi ra2e! !#(n #n its #$$#nents, it
treate! Ha)as as an unin!ite! #-#ns$irat#r in a terr#rist a)$aign in
Eg+$t /eing #n!ute! /+ the e9tre)ist gr#u$ 5nsar Beit al-4a:!is an!,
a#r!ing t# the g#vern)ent, the 4usli) Br#therh##! itsel'- .he Eg+$tian
g#vern)ent sees itsel' as /eing at (ar (ith the Eg+$etian 4usli)
Br#therh##!- Ha)as is the Br#therh##! gr#u$ in ,alestine- .he relati#nshi$
/et(een Eg+$t an! Ha)as is there'#re !istintl+ un'rien!l+, i' n#t #utright
h#stile-
In a!!iti#n t# see2ing Eg+$tian an! 5)erian su$$#rt '#r the trans'er #'
$r#)ise! 'un!ing 'r#) ?atar t# $a+ its e)$l#+ees, Ha)as (ants Eg+$t t#
$er)anentl+ #$en the @a'ah r#ssing an! e=etivel+ en! the /l#2a!e #'
%a&a, at least ins#'ar as the )#ve)ent #' $e#$le is #nerne!- But '#r
Eg+$t the r#ssing an! the (h#le /#r!er area is a )a0#r nati#nal seurit+
issue an! its level #' trust in Ha)as is nil-
H#(ever, the :uesti#n #' @a'ah has )a0#r i)$liati#ns '#r @a)allah, (hih
has /r#ught the /eleaguere! ,alestinian 5uth#rit+ ;,5< an! the si!eline!
;an! see)ingl+ i)$#tent an! irrelevant< ,resi!ent 4ah)#u! 5//as t# the
'#re- .he #nl+ real $r#s$et '#r re#$ening @a'ah #n a $er)anent /asis is an
#l! i!ea n#( su!!enl+ revive!A that ,5 seurit+ '#res, al#ng (ith
internati#nal )#nit#rs, (#ul! #ntr#l the ,alestinian si!e #' the r#ssing
rather than Ha)as-
Whether Eg+$t (#ul! /e (illing t# agree t# this is n#t lear, alth#ugh 5//as
has e9$resse! interest- In light #' Bair#*s #l! sh#ul!er, Ha)as has
atte)$te! t# /ring its urrent $atr#ns, .ur2e+ an! ?atar, int# the enter #'
!i$l#)ati ativit+ t# hel$ seure a ease-"re, t# little avail- .he entralit+
#' Eg+$t t# a $#tential ease-"re is si)$l+ unav#i!a/le- It is the #nl+ 5ra/
state that /#r!ers %a&a, an! there'#re has a !iret in>uene #n (hat !#es
an! !#es n#t ha$$en there-
But Eg+$t*s $ri#rit+ is n#t, as s#)e )ista2enl+ thin2, t# $reserve its
allege!l+ #vete! r#le as the g#-t# )e!iat#r an! /r#2er #' Israeli-Ha)as
trues- Instea!, the Eg+$tian g#vern)ent is !eter)ine! t# ensure that
Ha)as is n#t a/le t# #ere it int# )#!i'+ing (hat Sisi regar!s as 2e+
nati#nal seurit+ $#liies regar!ing %a&a- Hene its initial $r#$#sal,
essentiall+ #' 3al) '#r al),3 #=ere! Ha)as n# )a0#r gains- It (as
$re!ita/l+, i' n#t inevita/l+, re0ete!-
But n#(, Bair# has /r#ught 5//as an! the ,5 /a2 int# the tal2s, enter
stage- .he Eg+$tians have gras$e!, even i' Israel an! s#)e #thers have
n#t, that the l#ng-ter) $#litial i)$at #' the #n>it $r#/a/l+ !e$en!s
)#re #n rest#ring an! enhaning the re!i/ilit+ #' the ,5 than an+ #ther
'at#r-
.he ,5 has /een /a!l+ !a)age! /+ the 'ailure #' the last r#un! #' $eae
neg#tiati#ns an! the la2 #' a via/le #ng#ing !i$l#)ati tra2 t#(ar!s
,alestinian in!e$en!ene- Cther strategies, suh as U-N- re#gniti#n
initiatives, have !e)#nstrate! li)ite! i)$at an! a $r#hi/itive #st-
4ean(hile, in the West Ban2, the i)$r#ve)ents in g#vernane, re'#r)s,
e#n#)i !evel#$)ent, an! $u/li servies ahieve! /+ the state- an!
instituti#n-/uil!ing $r#gra) le! /+ '#r)er ,ri)e 4inister Sala) 7a++a!
have /een stagnant, at /est- In )an+ ases, the $al$a/le, )easura/le
suesses #' that $r#gra) are 'ra+ing-
.here is n# :uesti#n that 5//as an! the ,5 (ere su=ering a risis #'
legiti)a+ in reent )#nths, at the sa)e ti)e that Ha)as (as en!uring an
even greater risis at virtuall+ ever+ register- But n#(, at least, Ha)as has
sei&e! the initiative, al/eit at a hi!e#us #st- It al#ne a$$ears t# (ave the
,alestinian >ag, h#(ever s$ei#usl+- It al#ne lai)s t# have a strateg+ '#r
nati#nal li/erati#n -- ar)e! struggle an! 3resistane3 -- n# )atter h#(
i)$lausi/le-
.he !anger is that the /l##!+ an! re2less h#stilities /et(een Israel an!
Ha)as at least #nstitute something, (hih a ,5 ar)e! (ith n#thing )a+
"n! !i8ult t# #unter $#litiall+- With eah suessive >are-u$ #' vi#lene
/et(een Israel an! Ha)as, the Isla)ist gr#u$ has ta2en )#re /la)e 'r#)
/#th ,alestinian an! /r#a!er 5ra/ $u/li #$ini#n '#r the !eaths an!
!estruti#n- Ha)as*s $#litial 3/#une3 'r#) nati#nalist senti)ent against
Israel has /een )#re >eeting- But i' the ,5 still a$$ears ine=etive,
)arginal, an! irrelevant, even the hea$ing #' $u/li /la)e #n Ha)as )ight
n#t st#$ it 'r#) gaining signi"ant gr#un! in the ,alestinian $#litial
lan!sa$e-
I' (e are, as it a$$ears, l##2ing at a l#se-l#se senari# /et(een Israel an!
Ha)as, the /iggest l#ser #' all #ul! /e the ,5- .hat l#ss #' legiti)a+ (ill
/e g##! '#r n# #ne -- n#t Eg+$t, n#t Israel, an! ertainl+ n#t '#r the ause
#' $eae- .hus, even as Israeli tan2s r#ll int# %a&a, regi#nal an!
internati#nal $#(ers )ust )#ve :ui2l+ t# hel$ the ,5 rest#re its !i$l#)ati
an! $#litial relevane- .his )eans ensuring that @a)allah, n#t %a&a,
re)ains the $ri)ar+ a!!ress '#r ,alestinian issues, an! that a lear an!
re!i/le #ntrast in /#th g#vernane an! the #nse:uenes #' their $#liies
an /e !ra(n /+ eah an! ever+ ,alestinian (h# #)$ares the ,5 an!
Ha)as- Cther(ise it (ill /e har! '#r ,alestinians an! #thers n#t t# #nlu!e
that Ha)as is right (hen it lai)s that ar)e! struggle an! vi#lene +iel!
!ivi!en!s -- al/eit at a high #st -- (hile neg#tiati#ns, !i$l#)a+, an!
seurit+ ##r!inati#n are a $#intless !ea! en!-