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JANUARY 2012

LATIN AMERICAN CONSENSUS FORECASTS


E-mail Edition: -

All rights reserved. Under our agreement this publication may not be reproduced (complete or partial), redistributed, stored in a public retrieval system
or broadcast to persons other than the email subscriber without the prior
written permission of Consensus Economics Inc.
Survey Date
January 16, 2012

Every month, Consensus Economics surveys over 120 prominent Latin American economic
and financial forecasters for their estimates of a range of variables including future growth,
inflation, foreign trade, interest rates and exchange rates. Eighteen countries are covered and
the reference data is rushed to subscribers by express mail and e-mail.
As the rest of the world buckles under the strain of the
Euro zone debt crisis and accompanying economic
Page
uncertainty, Colombia has shown surprising resilience,
judging by latest national accounts data. In the three
Argentina .................................................... 2
months to September, real GDP growth soared by 7.7%
Brazil .............................................................. 4
from a year earlier, up from a more modest, albeit still
Chile ................................................................ 6
strong, 5.1% expansion in the second quarter and 4.7%
Mexico ............................................................ 8
in the first. The economys Q3 performance marks the
Venezuela ..................................................... 10
fastest rate of growth in four years. In q-o-q terms, a
Colombia ...................................................... 12
robust reading of 1.7% was also recorded. Factors
Peru .............................................................. 13
driving the economic expansion include robust oil output
Bolivia, Costa Rica, Dominican Republic,
and government spending, with the latter fuelled by a
Ecuador, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras,
major reconstruction drive following torrential rainfall in
Nicaragua, Panama, Paraguay, Uruguay....14-15
2010 and 2011. Reflecting booming activity in these
areas, both the mining and construction sectors saw
Foreign Exchange Forecasts .....................16-17
annual growth exceed 18.0% in Q3. For 2011 as a whole,
our panel now estimates that the economy will grow by
Oil Price Forecasts ....................................... 18
5.5% but growth looks set to moderate to 4.4% this year.
Signs of a slowdown in activity were already starting to
Country Risk Indicators. .............................. 19
emerge in the final months of 2011. For instance, retail
sales have continued to moderate in October, along with
World Economic Activity Table ................... 20
a fall in vehicle sales, while the jobless rate rose in
November.

Contents

Survey Highlights
This month, we move our forecast horizon forward so
that, in addition to our panels estimates for 2011 and
forecasts for 2012, we also include those for 2013 for all
major variable surveyed.

Significant Changes in 2012 GDP Forecasts for


Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia and Venezuela
%

(% change over previous year)


Consensus Forecasts from Survey of:
2011
2012
Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan

5.4

In Argentina, the 2011 GDP consensus continues


trending upward following a 9.3% (y-o-y) outturn in Q3
GDP growth. Although official GDP, production and
inflation data are manipulated for political ends, Argentina clearly experienced a strong 2011, supported by
surging public spending. The outlook for 2012 and 2013
is noticeably weaker. Adverse global headwinds will rein
in external demand. Meanwhile, La Nia drought conditions are threatening corn and soybean harvests. Recent rain may not be enough to turn agricultural fortunes
around, and this could dampen export receipts, upon
which the government is increasingly dependant.

Chile

5.1

Colombia

4.8
4.5
4.2
3.9

Argentina

3.6
3.3

Brazil

3.0
2.7
2.4
2.1
1.8

Venezuela

Editors: Suyin Kan and Claire V.M. Hubbard


Latin American Consensus Forecasts (ISSN: 0968-4972) is published by Consensus Economics Inc.,
Publisher: Philip M. Hubbard
53 Upper Brook Street, London, W1K 2LT, United Kingdom
Tel: (44 20) 7491 3211 Fax: (44 20) 7409 2331
Web: www.consensuseconomics.com
Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2012. All rights reserved. The contents of this publication, either in whole or in part, may not be reproduced, stored or transmitted in any form or by any means,
electronic, photocopying, recording or otherwise without the prior written permission of the publishers. The Editor and Consensus Economics Inc., do not guarantee or take any responsibility for the
information set forth herein, including the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the forecasts or written analysis.

Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2012

ARGENTINA

JANUARY 2012
% Change,
Dec-on-Dec

Average % Change on Previous Calendar Year

Economic Forecasters

Annual Total

Gross
Domestic
Product

Final
Consumption

Gross
Fixed
Investment

Industrial
Production
(EMI)

Consumer
Nominal Average Non-financial
Prices
Wages per
Public Sector
(Buenos Aires Industrial Worker Budget Balance,
Index)
(INDEC)
(% of GDP)

Producto
Bruto
Interno

Consumo
Final

Inversin
Bruta
Fija

Produccin
Industrial
(EMI)

Balanza de
Precios al Salarios Medios
Consumidor Nominales por Presupuesto del
Obrero
Sector Pblico
(Indice de
Industrial
No Financiero, (%
Buenos Aires)
(INDEC)
de PBI)
2012

2013

2012

2013

2012

2013

2012

2013

2013

2012

6.5
5.0
5.0
4.6
4.2
4.1
4.0
4.0
4.0
3.8
3.8
3.5
3.5
3.1
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
2.9
2.9
2.5
2.5
2.0

4.4
4.5
5.0
5.0
3.5
3.1
3.7
3.0
na
2.3
na
3.6
na
1.6
6.5
na
na
3.0
na
5.0
5.3
3.0
2.5
3.6
2.0

7.3
5.9
5.9
4.1
3.8
5.3
3.9
5.0
3.5
4.0
4.1
3.8
3.6
2.6
5.1
3.1
3.2
3.0
2.5
3.6
3.9
3.3
3.7
2.5
2.8

5.5
4.8
5.7
4.3
3.7
4.0
3.6
4.0
na
1.5
na
4.0
na
-0.5
6.0
na
na
3.2
na
4.8
5.5
3.2
2.3
3.5
2.0

5.4
8.0
3.6
8.0
10.0
3.8
5.7
10.0
10.1
1.4
8.0
6.4
6.2
1.9
-2.5
6.2
4.0
2.5
8.0
0.9
5.7
4.0
3.0
3.5
6.0

1.5
8.0
8.0
9.0
9.0
2.6
5.0
8.0
na
1.2
na
7.4
na
-5.0
16.0
na
na
4.1
na
5.5
7.7
3.6
3.0
5.0
4.0

na
na
na
4.0
4.3
3.5
5.5
4.5
na
na
na
3.6
3.5
2.5
3.5
3.9
4.0
1.9
3.0
3.1
3.1
3.1
na
2.0
2.0

na
na
na
5.1
3.8
2.7
5.2
3.0
na
na
na
3.5
na
1.0
4.0
na
na
2.5
na
5.4
3.5
2.9
na
3.8
2.0

9.9
9.1
9.4
11.5
8.7
11.0
9.2
12.0
na
na
9.6
9.3
9.6
9.2
7.0
12.2
10.0
na
na
8.3
10.9
na
9.9
na
na

12.1
9.0
15.0
9.8
7.5
12.0
na
18.0
na
na
na
9.5
na
9.6
11.0
na
na
na
na
7.9
9.9
na
9.4
na
na

na
na
na
23.0
23.0
na
22.0
20.0
32.6
na
na
19.5
21.0
28.7
na
21.4
25.0
22.0
22.0
22.0
na
na
na
24.0
21.0

na
na
na
20.0
18.0
na
17.0
20.0
na
na
na
17.5
na
30.1
na
na
na
20.0
na
na
na
na
na
25.0
15.0

2012
-0.7
-0.1
na
-1.0
-0.9
-1.2
-1.2
-1.2
-2.3
-0.5
-2.5
-1.2
-1.3
-2.4
-2.0
-1.4
-1.1
-1.5
-2.0
-0.9
na
-2.0
-0.8
-1.0
-1.2

2013

EXANTE
Credit Suisse
Citigroup
Banco Credicoop
Santander Investment
BBVA Banco Frances
Abeceb.com
Bulltick
Espert & Asociados
FIEL
Fundacion Capital
Datarisk
Estudio Bein & Asoc
Orlando Ferreres & Asoc
JP Morgan Chase
ACM
Delphos
Ecolatina
M & S Consultores
HSBC
IHS Global Insight
Deutsche Bank Rsrch
BofA - Merrill Lynch
Econviews
Econometrica
Consensus (Mean)

3.6

3.7

4.0

3.7

5.2

5.5

3.4

3.5

9.8

10.8

23.1

20.3

-1.3

-1.1

Last Month's Mean


3 Months Ago
High
Low
Standard Deviation

3.5
4.2
6.5
2.0
1.0

6.5
1.6
1.3

3.9
4.6
7.3
2.5
1.2

6.0
-0.5
1.6

5.4
7.6
10.1
-2.5
3.1

16.0
-5.0
4.3

3.6
4.4
5.5
1.9
0.9

5.4
1.0
1.2

10.3
11.3
12.2
7.0
1.3

18.0
7.5
2.9

23.0
23.1
32.6
19.5
3.4

30.1
15.0
4.6

-1.3
-1.2
-0.1
-2.5
0.6

0.0
-3.2
0.8

Comparison Forecasts
IMF (Sep. '11)
ECLAC (Dec. '11)

4.6
4.8

11.0

11.0

US$
Billion
55
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15

2012

4.2

Foreign Currency Reserves (US$bn)


Consensus Forecasts for:
End-2012
41.8
End-2013
40.9

Current
Account
Balance
'97 '99

'01

'03 '05

'07 '09

-0.4
-0.4
na
-0.6
-1.5
-1.0
-1.2
-1.5
na
na
na
-1.5
na
-3.2
-0.5
na
na
-1.6
na
0.0
na
-1.5
-1.3
-0.6
-1.5

2008 2009 2010 2011


Forecast

'93 '95

2013

Historical Data

Foreign Currency Reserves and


Current Account Balance

'89 '91

Average Annual
% change

'11 '13

Gross Domestic Product*


6.8
0.9
Final Consumption*
6.6
1.5
Gross Fixed Investment*
9.1 -10.2
Industrial Production, EMI*
5.0
0.1
Consumer Prices,
Buenos Aires (Dec/Dec, %)
7.2
7.7
Nominal Average Wages Per
Industrial Worker, INDEC*
24.9 17.7
Non-fin. Public Sector Budget Bal.,
inc. privatisation (% of GDP)
1.4 -0.6
Merchandise Exports, fob 1
70.0 55.7
Merchandise Imports, cif(-)1
57.5 38.8
Trade Balance, fob-cif1
12.6 16.9
Current Account Balance1
6.8 11.1
30-Day Peso Certificates of
Deposit (%), end year
15.1
9.4
Foreign Currency Reserves,
44.4 42.9
ex Gold & SDRs, end year1

e
e
e
e

9.2
9.1
21.2
9.8

7.7
8.4
14.6
6.2

10.9

9.5

33.7

28.3 e

0.2

-1.5 e
e
e
e
e

68.1
56.5
11.6
2.9

84.5
73.9
10.6
1.4

10.3

13.3

46.6

44.9 e

* average % change on previous year. 1 in US$, billions


e = consensus estimate based on latest survey
Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2012

JANUARY 2012

ARGENTINA
Rate on Survey
Date: 14.3%

Annual Total
Merchandise
Merchandise Merchandise
Trade Balance
Exports
Imports
(fob-cif
(fob, US$bn) (cif, US$bn)
US$bn)

ExportaImportaciones de
ciones de
Mercancas Mercancas
(fab, US$bn) (cif, US$bn)
2012

Balanza
Comercial
(fab-cif,
US$bn)

2011, 2012 and 2013 Consensus Forecasts for


Real GDP Growth from Survey of:

Current
Account
Balance
(US$bn)

30-Day Peso
Certificates
of Deposit
(%)

Saldo en
Cuenta
Corriente
(US$bn)

Certificados
de Depsitos
en Pesos a 30
das (%)

2013 2012 2013 2012 2013 2012 2013

2010
2011
2012
Jan Mar May July Sep Nov Jan Mar May July Sep Nov Jan
8.0
7.5
7.0
6.5
6.0
5.5
5.0
4.5
4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0

End
End
Apr. 12 Jan. 13

90.3 96.9
87.4 91.0
84.3 90.4
87.0 95.5
93.1 100.6
80.2 84.0
93.0 105.1
88.0 92.0
95.0
na
83.3 90.0
88.2
na
87.6 95.5
88.4
na
88.8 91.5
83.8 91.5
87.5
na
90.0
na
84.9 89.1
82.0
na
77.4 83.7
87.3 93.9
87.7 92.5
83.2 86.9
85.7 91.7
88.8 93.2

81.3
82.7
75.9
78.0
87.6
75.2
85.5
79.0
87.7
80.4
81.5
79.7
80.8
81.2
71.0
83.3
83.5
74.9
71.0
68.6
81.3
82.0
79.9
77.2
80.8

85.6
88.6
82.3
89.0
98.0
82.5
98.3
84.0
na
85.9
na
88.5
na
84.9
84.4
na
na
80.9
na
75.7
89.7
87.3
84.7
83.7
84.8

8.9
4.7
8.5
9.0
5.5
5.0
7.5
9.0
7.2
2.9
6.7
7.9
7.6
7.6
12.8
4.2
6.5
10.0
11.0
8.8
5.9
5.7
3.4
8.5
8.0

11.3
2.4
8.1
6.5
2.6
1.5
6.8
8.0
na
4.1
na
7.0
na
6.6
7.0
na
na
8.3
na
8.0
4.2
5.2
2.2
8.0
8.4

-0.8
-0.7
1.5
1.2
0.0
-2.7
0.0
-0.5
3.1
-5.0
-2.2
0.1
-0.7
-1.7
3.3
-2.7
-1.5
-0.3
1.5
0.0
-2.6
-0.1
-4.1
-0.5
-3.7

0.8
-3.3
1.1
-0.8
-1.0
-5.2
-0.3
-1.0
na
-4.6
na
0.4
na
-0.9
-0.4
na
na
-2.2
na
-1.5
-4.3
0.8
-4.6
-1.2
-4.0

na
na
na
14.0
15.5
16.6
14.9
18.0
14.6
19.7
na
15.7
15.0
20.0
na
14.8
na
13.5
14.0
16.7
na
na
na
13.0
16.0

na
na
19.5
13.5
16.5
16.6
16.3
18.0
na
21.4
na
15.2
15.6
22.0
na
na
na
14.5
na
15.3
na
na
na
17.0
16.0

86.9

92.4

79.6

86.3

7.3

6.1

-0.8

-1.7

15.8

17.0

88.7
87.8
95.0 105.1
77.4 83.7
4.0
5.1

81.9
82.7
87.7
68.6
4.8

98.3
75.7
5.3

6.8
5.1
12.8
2.9
2.3

11.3
1.5
2.6

-1.5
-2.5
3.3
-5.0
2.1

1.1
-5.2
2.0

-4.4

-5.2

2011

2013
2012
An upbeat Q3 national accounts showing helped to
shore up 2011 forecasts for real GDP growth. However, the 2012 consensus has stalled on the back of
slowing global fundamentals and La Nia drought
conditions which are hitting current soybean and corn
crops. This also poses a threat for export and tariff
revenues, reining in the governments ability to spur
activity via public spending.

2011, 2012 and 2013 Consensus Forecasts for


Official Consumer Prices from Survey of:
%, Dec/
Dec

2010
2011
2012
J a n M a r M a y J u ly S e p N o v J a n M a r M a y J u ly S e p N o v J a n

14.5
14.0

2012

13.5
13.0
12.5

2011

12.0
11.5

2013

11.0
10.5
10.0
9.5
9.0

Q: What is the True Rate of Argentine Inflation?


20.0
13.0
2.0

Year-on-year inflation for December 2011:


Official, INDEC-reported rate:
9.5% (y-o-y)
Consensus estimated true rate:
23.3% (y-o-y)
December 2012/December 2011 inflation:
Consensus forecast (official rate):
9.8% (y-o-y)
Consensus forecast (true rate):
22.6% (y-o-y)

22.0
13.5
2.5

Monthly Inflation Forecasts


Consumer prices, Buenos Aires Index, not seasonally adjusted
Consensus forecasts
shown in bold italics
2 0 1 1 J uly
A ug
Sep
Oct
N ov
D ec
2012 Jan
Fe b
Mar
A pr
May
J une

% change on
previous month
0 .8
0 .8
0 .8
0 .6
0 .6
0 .8
0 .9
0 .8
0 .8
0 .6
0 .7
0 .8

% change on
same month in
previous year
9 .7
9 .8
9 .9
9 .7
9 .5
9 .5
9 .7
9 .8
9 .7
9 .5
9 .4
9 .4

D e c e m be r 2 0 1 2
9 .8
D e c e m be r 2 0 1 3
1 0 .8
Readers should note that the December y-o-y figure for the current year
may not equate to the Dec/Dec consensus forecast shown on the main
table, since the number of survey respondents may be different, or
because of rounding.

Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2012

Forecast

2.0
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2

%
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
Jan 07

Jul 07

Jan 08

Jul 08

Jan 09

Jul 09

Jan 10

Jul 10

Jan 11

Jul 11

Jan 12

----- Consensus plus 1 Standard Deviation


Actual and Consensus
----- Consensus minus 1 Standard Deviation
3

BRAZIL

JANUARY 2012
Average % Change on Previous Calendar Year
Gross
Domestic
Product

Household
Consumption

Gross
Fixed
Investment

Industrial
Production
(IBGE)

Produto
Interno
Bruto

Consumo
das Famlias

Formao
Bruta de
Capital
Fixo

Produo
Industrial
(IBGE)

% Change, Average Annual


Annual Total
% change
Dec-on-Dec
Nominal
Consumer
Nominal
Average Income Public Sector
Prices
(Private Sector),
IPCA
Borrowing
Monthly
(IBGE)
Requirement,
Employment
Survey (PME) inc. privatization
(% of GDP)
(IBGE)
Rendimento Necessidades de
Preos ao
Mdio Nominal Financiamento
Consumidor
(Setor Privado), Nominal do Setor
IPCA
(PME)
Publico
(IBGE)
(IBGE)
(% do PIB)

Economic Forecasters

2012

2013

2012

2013

2012

2013

2012

2013

2012

2013

2012

Moody's Analytics
SILCON/C.R. Contador
Citigroup
Datalynk
Morgan Stanley
BofA - Merrill Lynch
Barclays Capital
MCM Consultores
Deutsche Bank
Tendencias
JP Morgan
Eaton Corporation
LCA Consultores
Banco Votorantim
Rosenberg Consultoria
Capital Economics

5.0
3.6
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.4
3.3
3.2
3.2
3.2
3.1
3.1
3.1
3.0
3.0
2.5

6.0
4.2
4.5
4.0
4.0
4.2
4.1
3.9
5.0
4.0
4.5
4.0
4.7
4.0
3.5
3.8

5.5
5.1
3.5
4.0
3.7
3.8
4.2
4.2
3.7
3.4
3.5
2.3
4.5
4.0
3.8
2.0

6.6
5.4
4.6
5.0
4.7
5.7
4.5
4.9
5.7
5.3
4.5
3.0
5.0
5.0
4.5
3.5

6.3
7.9
4.6
7.0
6.8
3.7
6.8
4.5
2.4
6.5
6.3
1.8
4.0
7.0
3.0
2.5

7.7
8.0
6.7
10.0
8.7
5.0
7.4
1.5
5.3
5.1
6.8
6.3
6.1
7.0
6.5
5.0

6.1
2.6
na
4.0
na
3.9
2.4
3.7
2.0
2.0
4.0
2.6
2.5
3.0
2.1
2.0

7.3
4.0
na
4.5
na
4.3
4.3
3.4
4.0
4.3
4.0
4.0
4.0
4.0
4.3
4.0

5.0
5.6
5.5
5.5
5.6
5.3
5.3
5.5
5.3
5.5
4.9
5.3
5.0
5.2
6.0
4.7

5.5
5.0
5.0
4.5
5.7
5.0
5.6
5.6
5.6
6.0
5.0
4.7
4.5
4.5
4.8
4.5

Consensus (Mean)

3.3

4.3

3.8

4.9

5.1

6.4

3.1

4.3

5.3

Last Month's Mean


3 Months Ago
High
Low
Standard Deviation

3.2
3.8
5.0
2.5
0.5

6.0
3.5
0.6

3.8
4.5
5.5
2.0
0.9

6.6
3.0
0.8

5.2
6.2
7.9
1.8
2.0

10.0
1.5
1.9

3.0
3.8
6.1
2.0
1.2

3.3

4.3

4.4

4.9

7.7

8.5

4.0

3.6
3.2
3.5

4.2
3.9

Comparison Forecasts
Corp Andina de
Fomento (Jan. '12)
IMF (Sep. '11)
OECD (Nov. '11)
ECLAC (Dec. '11)

2013

2012

2013

na
8.0
na
9.0
na
na
na
8.7
na
8.3
na
na
8.8
na
na
na

na
7.0
na
9.0
na
na
na
9.0
na
9.3
na
na
7.1
na
na
na

na
2.6
na
3.2
2.0
1.2
2.7
2.2
1.5
2.0
3.3
1.9
2.0
2.2
2.3
1.7

na
2.4
na
3.2
2.0
1.0
2.5
1.8
1.7
3.0
2.8
1.5
1.6
1.8
1.2
na

5.1

8.6

8.3

2.2

2.0

7.3
3.4
0.9

5.3
5.6
6.0
4.7
0.3

6.0
4.5
0.5

8.0
8.5
9.0
8.0
0.4

9.3
7.0
1.1

2.1
2.2
3.3
1.2
0.6

3.2
1.0
0.7

5.0

5.5

5.0

12.5

9.0

2.9

3.0

4.5
5.8

4.5
4.7

2.8

2.6

Historical Data
Current Account Balance and Foreign
Currency Reserves
US$
Billion
395
365
335
305
275
245
215
185
155
125
95
65
35
5
-25
-55
-85

Forecast

Foreign Currency Reserves (US$bn)


Consensus Forecasts for:
End-2012 363.6
End-2013 379.1

Current Account
Balance
'89 '91 '93 '95 '97 '99 '01 '03 '05 '07 '09 '11 '13

2008 2009 2010 2011


Gross Domestic Product*
5.2
Household Consumption*
5.7
Gross Fixed Investment*
13.6
Industrial Production, IBGE*
3.1
Consumer Prices, IPCA,
IBGE Index (Dec/Dec, %)
5.9
Nominal Average Income
(Private Sector), (IBGE)*
8.7
PSBR, inc. privatisation proceeds
(% of GDP, - = budget surplus)
2.1
Merchandise Exports, fob1
197.9
Merchandise Imports, fob (-)1 173.1
Trade Balance, fob-fob1
24.8
Current Account Balance1
-28.2
Overnight Interest Rate, SELIC
annualized, %, end period
13.8
Foreign Currency Reserves,
ex Gold & SDRs, end year1
192.8

2.9 e
4.1 e
4.8 e
0.6 e

-0.3
4.4
-6.7
-7.4

7.5
6.9
21.3
10.5

4.3

5.9

6.5

7.8

9.0

9.3 e

3.4
2.6
2.4 e
153.0 201.9 252.7 e
127.7 181.6 223.9 e
25.3 20.3 28.8 e
-24.3 -47.5 -52.2 e
8.8

10.8

11.0

231.9 280.6 352.7 e

* average % change on previous year. 1 in US$, billions


e = consensus estimate based on latest survey
Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2012

BRAZIL

JANUARY 2012
Rate on Survey
Date: 11.0%

Annual Total
Merchandise Merchandise Merchandise
Exports
Imports
Trade
(fob, US$bn) (fob, US$bn)
Balance
(fob-fob,
US$bn)

Current
Account
Balance
(US$bn)

Overnight
Interbank
Interest
Rate,
SELIC (%)

Saldo em
Conta
Corrente
(US$bn)

Taxa de
juros
(overnight),
SELIC (%)

2011, 2012 and 2013 Consensus Forecasts for


Consumer Prices from Survey of:

%, Dec/
Dec

2010
2011
2012
Jan Mar May July Sep Nov Jan Mar May July Sep Nov Jan
6.5
2011

Exportao Importao
de
de
Mercadorias Mercadorias
(US$bn)
(US$bn)

Saldo
Comercial
(US$bn)

6.0

5.5
2012

2012

2013 2012 2013 2012 2013 2012 2013

282.9
260.0
274.2
288.0
266.4
258.2
279.8
269.3
272.0
275.0
268.4
270.0
280.0
280.1
254.3
275.0

333.8
270.0
291.8
334.0
na
285.0
315.3
287.4
312.0
na
307.2
275.0
304.1
302.6
274.6
300.0

261.3
240.0
258.6
270.0
265.4
241.2
263.4
248.8
252.0
250.0
258.2
235.0
250.9
260.3
236.4
255.0

310.0
255.0
260.4
321.0
na
277.4
308.7
260.0
294.0
na
296.4
240.0
264.3
288.9
254.2
285.0

21.6
20.0
15.7
18.0
1.0
17.1
16.4
20.6
20.0
25.0
10.3
35.0
29.1
19.9
17.9
20.0

23.8
15.0
31.4
13.0
na
7.6
6.6
27.4
18.0
na
10.8
35.0
39.8
13.6
20.4
15.0

-44.5 -46.5
-68.0 -70.0
-70.8 -63.4
-65.0 -75.0
-88.0 -119.8
-70.3 -89.9
-75.1 -85.9
-65.5 -59.9
-64.0 -75.0
-60.0 -95.8
-76.2 -65.8
-53.0 -55.0
-55.2 -63.0
-71.3 -80.0
-63.4 -63.1
-65.0 -70.0

272.1 299.5 252.9 279.7 19.2 19.8 -66.0

-73.6

272.7
254.6
18.1
-65.5
278.8
260.6
18.2
-66.8
288.0 334.0 270.0 321.0 35.0 39.8 -44.5 -46.5
254.3 270.0 235.0 240.0 1.0 6.6 -88.0 -119.8
9.3 20.3 10.6 24.7 7.4 10.3 10.1 17.8

End
End
Apr. 12 Jan. 13

9.5
9.8
9.5
9.5
10.0
na
10.0
9.5
9.5
9.5
na
10.5
9.5
9.5
9.5
na

8.5
8.5
9.5
9.5
10.0
na
10.0
9.5
9.5
10.0
na
10.0
9.5
9.5
9.5
na

9.7

9.5

5.0

4.5

4.0

3.5

2013
Monthly inflation was unchanged at 0.5% in December while
the annual figure finished 2011 at 6.5% (y-o-y), which was a
touch lower than Novembers 6.6% increase. The December
reading means inflation ended last year at the top end of Banco
Central do Brazils target range (4.5% +/-2%). Consumer price
rises are expected to decelerate over the coming months,
with our panellists now predicting that the December rate will
come in at 5.3%.

Likelihood of an Interest Rate Change


The panel's estimated average probability of a change in
Banco Central do Brazils SELIC Rate Target (currently
11.0%) between the survey date and March 8, 2012 was:
% probability of:
INCREASE
NO CHANGE
DECREASE
0.5
+
9.5
+
90.0
= 100%
Most likely rate change mentioned was:-0.5%

Interest Rate Forecasts

10.5 10.0
9.5 8.5
0.3 0.5

Overnight Interest Rate, SELIC,


annualized, %, end period

%
14

Forecast

13
12

281.0 310.0 260.2 292.7 20.8 17.3 -65.0

-70.0

11

10.5 10.8

10

-66.6

-82.0

8
Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan
07
08
09
10
11
12
13

Monthly Inflation Forecasts


IPCA (IBGE) Index, not seasonally adjusted
Consensus forecasts
shown in bold italics
2011

2012

% change on
previous month

J u ly
A ug
Sep
Oct
N ov
Dec
Jan
Fe b
Mar
A pr
May
J une

0 .2
0 .4
0 .5
0 .4
0 .5
0 .5
0 .6
0 .6
0 .5
0 .5
0 .4
0 .2

D ec em ber 2012
D ec em ber 2013

6 .9
7 .2
7 .3
7 .0
6 .6
6 .5
6 .2
6 .0
5 .7
5 .4
5 .3
5 .4

0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6

5 .3
5 .1

Readers should note that the December y-o-y figure for the current year
may not equate to the Dec/Dec consensus forecast shown on the main
table, since the number of survey respondents may be different, or
because of rounding.
Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2012

Forecast

1.0

% change on
same month in
previous year

0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.0
Jan 07

Jul 07

Jan 08

Jul 08

Jan 09

Jul 09

Jan 10

Jul 10

Jan 11

Jul 11

Jan 12

----- Consensus plus 1 Standard Deviation


Actual and Consensus
----- Consensus minus 1 Standard Deviation
5

CHILE

JANUARY 2012
Average % Change on Previous Calendar Year
Gross
Domestic
Product

Private
Consumption

Gross
Fixed
Investment

Industrial
Production
(INE, General
Index)

Producto
Geogrfico
Bruto

Consumo
Privado

Formacin
Bruta
de Capital
Fijo

Produccin
Industrial
(INE, Indice
General)

% Change,
Dec-on-Dec

Average Annual
% change

Consumer
Prices
(INE, General
Index)

Nominal
Hourly Wages
(INE, General
Index)

Precios al Remuneraciones
Nominales por
Consumidor
Hora
(INE, Indice
(INE, Indice
General)
General)
2012
2013
2012
2013

General
Government
Budget Balance, accrual
basis
(% of GDP)

Balance del
Gobierno
General
(% de PGB)

Economic Forecasters

2012

2013

2012

2013

2012

2013

2012

2013

2012

2013

Moody's Analytics
HSBC
Banco BICE
Banco de Chile
Banchile Inversiones
Deutsche Bank
IHS Global Insight
JP Morgan Chase
C. Comercio Santiago
Libertad y Desarrollo
Universidad de Chile
Larrain Vial
Banco Security
BofA - Merrill Lynch
Gemines

5.5
4.5
4.4
4.3
4.2
4.2
4.1
4.0
4.0
4.0
4.0
3.8
3.5
3.5
3.3

6.3
4.8
5.0
5.0
4.5
3.9
4.7
4.8
5.0
5.0
5.0
4.5
5.0
4.0
4.8

7.5
6.0
3.7
5.0
4.7
6.1
4.8
5.0
4.5
4.2
4.3
5.0
4.2
5.5
5.0

5.5
5.0
na
5.5
4.5
5.8
4.1
4.0
5.7
5.0
5.2
7.0
5.5
4.1
5.3

6.2
9.7
9.1
7.5
7.5
8.2
9.2
23.0
8.0
5.7
7.0
0.0
5.5
7.4
3.0

11.6
12.0
na
8.0
4.5
7.4
7.5
15.0
10.0
7.0
7.0
10.0
7.0
7.2
7.0

5.5
3.0
2.9
3.8
1.7
3.2
2.3
4.0
3.0
3.0
4.0
-0.5
2.0
na
1.0

6.4
6.0
na
5.0
2.5
3.0
2.8
5.0
5.0
4.0
5.0
2.0
3.5
na
3.5

4.0
2.8
2.8
2.8
2.8
3.0
2.9
3.4
3.1
3.0
3.4
na
2.8
3.0
3.0

3.5
2.8
na
3.0
3.0
3.2
3.2
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
na
3.0
3.0
3.5

na
na
4.0
4.5
4.8
na
na
na
4.7
4.8
5.0
6.0
4.8
na
5.2

na
na
na
4.0
5.0
na
na
na
5.1
4.5
5.0
6.0
5.0
na
5.0

na
-0.6
-0.2
-0.5
-0.8
0.2
na
1.0
1.3
na
0.6
1.0
0.0
-0.1
-0.7

na
na
na
1.0
0.5
-0.5
na
1.0
1.5
na
0.0
2.0
0.5
0.3
-0.3

Consensus (Mean)

4.1

4.8

5.0

5.2

7.8

8.7

2.8

4.1

3.1

3.1

4.9

5.0

0.1

0.6

Last Month's Mean


3 Months Ago
High
Low
Standard Deviation

4.0
4.4
5.5
3.3
0.5

6.3
3.9
0.5

4.8
5.0
7.5
3.7
0.9

7.0
4.0
0.8

7.6
8.1
23.0
0.0
4.9

15.0
4.5
2.7

2.7
3.7
5.5
-0.5
1.5

6.4
2.0
1.4

3.0
3.0
4.0
2.8
0.3

3.5
2.8
0.2

4.6
4.8
6.0
4.0
0.5

6.0
4.0
0.6

0.0
0.1
1.3
-0.8
0.7

2.0
-0.5
0.8

Comparison Forecasts
Banco Central de
Chile (Dec. '11)
IMF (Sep. '11)
OECD (Nov. '11)
ECLAC (Dec. '11)

4.3
4.7
4.0
4.2

2.7
3.1

3.0
-0.4

0.8

US$
Billion
45

5.8
4.5
4.7

6.4

7.0

7.7

8.8

Historical Data

Foreign Currency Reserves and


Current Account Balance

2008

Forecast

Foreign Currency Reserves (US$bn)


Consensus Forecasts for:
End-2012 38.9
End-2013 39.4

40
35
30
25

Merchandise Exports, fob1


Merchandise Imports, fob (-)1
Trade Balance, fob-fob1
Current Account Balance1
Nominal Central Bank 90-Day
Bill Rate (%), end year
Foreign Currency Reserves,
ex Gold & SDRs, end year1

15

Current
Account
Balance

10
5
0
-5
'89

'91

'93

'95

'97

'99

'01

'03

'05

'07

'09

'11

'13

2009

3.7
-1 . 7
Gross Domestic Product*
4
.
5
0.9
Private Consumption*
1 9 . 4 -1 5 . 9
Gross Fixed Investment*
0.2
-6 . 7
Industrial Production, INE
Consumer Prices, INE,
7.1
-1 . 4
General Index (Dec/Dec, %)
Nominal Hourly Wages,
8.5
6.4
INE, General Index*
General Government Budget Bal.

accrual basis (% of GDP)


20

Annual Total

2010 2011
5.2
6.2 e
10.4
8.3 e
18.8 15.5 e
0.5
5.3 e
3.0

4.4

3.6

5.9 e

5.2
66.3
57.7
8.5
-3 . 3

-4 . 5
54.0
39.9
14.1
2.6

-0 . 4
71.0
55.2
15.9
3.8

1.6
81.1
69.2
11.9
-1 . 4

8.3

0.5

3.3

5.3

22.8

23.8

26.3

e
e
e
e
e

38.1 e

* average % change on previous year. 1 in US$, billions


e = consensus estimate based on latest survey
Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2012

CHILE

JANUARY 2012
Rate on Survey
Date: 5.0%

Annual Total
Merchandise Merchandise Merchandise
Exports
Trade
Imports
(fob, US$bn) (fob, US$bn)
Balance
(fob-fob,
US$bn)

Current
Account
Balance
(US$bn)

Central
Bank
Monetary
Policy
Rate (%)

ExportaImportaciones de
ciones de
Bienes
Bienes
(fab, US$ bn) (fab, US$bn)

Saldo en
Cuenta
Corriente
(US$bn)

Tasa de
Interes de
Politica
Monetaria
(%)

2012 2013

End
End
Apr. 12 Jan. 13

2011, 2012 and 2013 Consensus Forecasts for


Consumer Prices from Survey of:

%, Dec/
Dec

2010
2011
2012
Jan Mar May July Sep Nov Jan Mar May July Sep Nov Jan

4.5
2011

2012

Balanza
Comercial
(fab-fab,
US$bn)

2013 2012 2013 2012 2013

78.0
81.5
83.0
80.0
78.3
78.7
83.6
77.0
75.8
79.0
83.0
84.5
76.1
78.1
80.0

88.9
86.4
na
88.0
75.2
84.0
91.7
84.8
89.4
na
90.0
94.5
81.0
84.0
84.0

66.6
71.1
75.0
70.0
74.4
72.8
74.6
69.8
72.6
73.0
74.0
72.0
74.0
69.2
73.0

76.4
74.7
na
75.0
69.3
74.0
80.0
79.5
81.7
na
86.0
80.0
80.0
75.7
79.0

11.4
10.4
8.0
10.0
3.9
5.9
9.0
7.2
3.2
6.0
9.0
12.5
2.0
8.9
7.0

79.8

86.3

72.1

77.8

7.6

94.5
75.2
5.0

71.2
71.2
75.0
66.6
2.4

80.2
82.5
84.5
75.8
2.8

78.8

4.5
4.5
4.5
4.5
4.8
4.3
5.0
na
4.8
4.8
4.8
4.5
4.5
na
4.8

5.5
4.5
4.0
4.5
4.3
4.3
5.0
na
4.0
5.0
4.5
4.0
3.5
na
4.0

-3.6

4.6

4.4

9.0
-4.3
11.3
-2.1
86.0 12.5 14.5
2.8 4.0
69.3 2.0 1.0 -10.0 -16.1
4.2 3.0 4.1
3.5 5.2

5.0
4.3
0.2

5.5
3.5
0.5

74.0

12.5
2.8 3.2
11.8 -2.7 -2.0
na -1.0
na
13.0 -1.5 0.0
5.9 -8.0 -6.6
10.0 -6.1 -4.6
11.8 -5.4 4.0
5.3 -10.0 -16.1
7.7
na
na
na -7.0
na
4.0 -2.0 -3.0
14.5 -3.0 -2.5
1.0 -8.8 -4.5
8.3 -3.8 -4.5
5.0 -5.0 -7.0
8.5

4.8

-4.4

-7.7
-3.6

4.0

3.5
2013

2012

3.0
Banco Central de Chile kick-started its monetary easing cycle
at the start of this year with a surprise quarter-percentage-point
2.5 cut in the monetary policy rate to 5.0% on January 12. The move
came in the wake of an unexpectedly high inflation reading for
December, which saw the annual rate finish 2011 at 4.4%. This
2.0 figure well exceeds the upper limit of the central banks target of
3.0% (+/-1.0%). The economy is expected to lose momentum
this year and inflation is projected to return to target, though.

Likelihood of an Interest Rate Change


The panel's estimated average probability of a change in
Banco Central de Chiles Monetary Policy Rate (currently
5.0%) between the survey date and February 15, 2012, was:

% probability of:
INCREASE
NO CHANGE
DECREASE
0.0
+
46.9
+
53.1
= 100%
Most likely rate change mentioned was: -0.25%

Interest Rate Forecasts


Central Bank Monetary Policy Rate,
annualised, %, end period

%
9.0
8.0
7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
Jan
07

-4.6

Jul
07

Jan
08

Jul
08

Jan
09

Jul
09

Jan
10

Jul
10

Jan
11

Jul
11

Forecast

Jan
12

Jul
12

Jan
13

Monthly Inflation Forecasts


Forecast

Consumer prices, INE, General Index, not seasonally adjusted


Consensus forecasts
shown in bold italics

% change on
previous month

2 0 1 1 J uly
A ug
Sep
Oct
N ov
D ec
2012 Jan
Fe b
Mar
A pr
May
J une

0 .1
0 .2
0 .5
0 .5
0 .3
0 .6
0 .2
0 .2
0 .5
0 .3
0 .2
0 .2

% change on
same month in
previous year
2 .9
3 .2
3 .3
3 .7
3 .9
4 .4
4 .3
4 .2
4 .0
3 .9
3 .8
3 .8

1.6
1.4
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2

0.0
-0.2
-0.4
-0.6
-0.8
-1.0

D e c e m be r 2 0 1 2
D e c e m be r 2 0 1 3

3 .1
3 .1

Readers should note that the December y-o-y figure for the current year
may not equate to the Dec/Dec consensus forecast shown on the main
table, since the number of survey respondents may be different, or
because of rounding.
Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2012

-1.2
-1.4
Jan 07

Jul 07

Jan 08

Jul 08

Jan 09

Jul 09

Jan 10

Jul 10

Jan 11

Jul 11

Jan 12

----- Consensus plus 1 Standard Deviation


Actual and Consensus
----- Consensus minus 1 Standard Deviation
7

MEXICO

JANUARY 2012
% Change,
Dec-on-Dec

Average % Change on Previous Calendar Year


Gross
Domestic
Product

Private
Consumption

Gross
Fixed
Investment

Producto
Interno
Bruto

Consumo
Privado

Inversin
Fija
Bruta

Consumer
Public Sector
Average
Prices
Budget
Industrial Wages
(Banco de
Balance, incl.
(Banco de
Mexico Index) Mexico Index) privatization
(% of GDP)
Salarios
en
la
Balance
Precios al
Produccin
Industria
Economico del
Consumidor
Manufacturera
Manufacturera Sector Pblico,
(Banco de
(INEGI)
(Banco de
incl. PrivatizacMxico)
Mxico)
iones (% de PIB)
2012 2013
2012
2013
2012 2013
2012
2013

Manufacturing
Production
(INEGI)

Economic Forecasters

2012

2013

2012

2013

Moody's Analytics
CEESP
Bulltick
Grupo Bursametrica
HSBC
Deutsche Bank Rsrch
JP Morgan Chase Mex
Morgan Stanley
Santander Serfin Mexico
Consultores Econ
CAIE-ITAM
Invex Grupo Financiero
Banamex
Citigroup
BofA - Merrill Lynch
Scotiabank
American Chamber Mex
ING Bank

4.5
4.0
3.8
3.5
3.4
3.3
3.3
3.2
3.2
3.2
3.1
3.1
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
2.9
2.6

3.5
4.2
3.5
3.2
3.0
3.5
3.5
3.3
3.5
2.9
4.0
na
3.4
3.4
3.3
3.7
na
2.3

4.8
3.8
4.0
3.6
4.9
3.0
4.2
3.6
4.2
3.0
3.2
5.2
3.4
3.3
3.3
3.4
2.5
2.9

3.3
4.4
3.7
3.5
2.7
3.3
na
3.7
4.4
2.8
na
na
3.7
3.6
3.4
3.9
na
2.9

7.8
7.5
5.0
5.5
6.1
4.0
3.1
5.9
5.0
4.9
3.3
4.0
6.4
6.4
5.0
3.8
3.6
4.0

5.5
9.7
4.5
5.2
3.0
5.0
3.0
5.6
6.4
4.2
na
na
7.7
6.4
7.0
6.1
na
3.3

4.8
5.1
3.0
3.5
4.2
4.0
3.8
3.6
3.7
3.9
1.8
1.7
3.2
na
4.2
3.3
3.9
2.3

3.2
5.7
3.0
3.8
3.8
5.0
3.7
4.2
5.0
3.2
na
na
3.6
na
na
4.0
na
2.3

4.5
3.3
3.5
3.5
3.9
3.4
na
3.6
3.7
3.6
3.4
3.7
3.8
3.6
3.7
4.1
3.8
3.7

4.0
3.2
3.3
3.5
3.4
3.4
na
3.4
3.6
4.0
na
3.7
3.9
3.9
3.5
4.1
na
3.8

na
4.3
na
3.7
4.3
na
na
na
4.5
4.2
na
3.5
3.2
na
na
4.2
4.5
4.2

na
4.6
na
3.7
4.1
na
na
na
4.5
4.1
na
na
3.0
na
na
4.3
na
4.2

-2.2
-2.5
-2.4
-2.9
-2.4
-2.3
-2.4
-2.4
-2.4
-3.0
-2.5
-2.5
-2.2
-2.2
-2.0
-2.8
-2.7
-2.4

-2.0
-1.9
-2.4
-2.4
-2.0
-2.0
-2.4
-2.3
-2.0
-3.0
na
-2.0
-2.0
-2.0
-1.8
-2.8
na
-1.9

Consensus (Mean)

3.3

3.4

3.7

3.5

5.1

5.5

3.5

3.9

3.7

3.6

4.1

4.1

-2.5

-2.2

Last Month's Mean


3 Months Ago
High
Low
Standard Deviation

3.1
3.3
4.5
2.6
0.4

4.2
2.3
0.4

3.5
3.8
5.2
2.5
0.7

4.4
2.7
0.5

4.7
4.9
7.8
3.1
1.4

9.7
3.0
1.8

3.5
3.6
5.1
1.7
0.9

5.7
2.3
0.9

3.7
3.6
4.5
3.3
0.3

4.1
3.2
0.3

4.2
4.2
4.5
3.2
0.4

4.6
3.0
0.5

-2.5
-2.4
-2.0
-3.0
0.3

-1.8
-3.0
0.3

Comparison Forecasts
IMF (Sep. '11)
OECD (Nov. '11)
ECLAC (Dec. '11)

3.6
3.3
3.3

3.7
3.6

3.0

3.0

3.1

3.5

8.1

7.4

US$
Billion
180

2012

140
120

Historical Data
2008 2009 2010 2011

Forecast

100
80
60
40
20
0
-20

Current
Account
Balance

-40
-60
'89

2013

Foreign Currency Reserves and


Current Account Balance
Foreign Currency Reserves (US$bn)
Consensus Forecasts for:
End-2012 151.4
End-2013 161.4

160

Average Annual Annual Total


% change

'91

'93

'95

'97

'99

'01

'03

'05

'07

'09

'11

'13

Gross Domestic Product*


1.2
-6.1
5.4
4.0
Private Consumption*
Gross Fixed Investment*
1.7
-7.2
5.0
4.5
Manufacturing Production,
5.9 -11.9
2.4
7.9
INEGI*
-0.7
-9.8
9.9
4.9
Consumer Prices,
Banco de Mexico (Dec/Dec, %)
6.5
3.6
4.4
3.8
Average Industrial Wages,
Banco de Mexico*
6.0
4.6
3.5
4.1
Public Sector Budget Balance,
inc privatisation (% of GDP)
-0.1
-2.3
-2.8
-2.5
Merchandise Exports, fob1
291.3 229.7 298.5 349.4
1
Merchandise Imports, fob (-)
308.6 234.4 301.5 352.1
Trade Balance, fob-fob1
-17.3
-4.7
-3.0
-2.7
Current Account Balance1
-16.3
-6.4
-5.7
-9.9
28-Day CETES Rate (%), end yr 8.0
4.5
4.5
4.3
Foreign Currency Reserves,
94.0
94.1 114.9 142.5
ex Gold & SDRs, end year1

e
e
e
e

e
e
e
e
e
e

* average % change on previous year. 1 in US$, billions


e = consensus estimate based on latest survey
Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2012

MEXICO

JANUARY 2012
Rate on Survey
Date: 4.3%

Annual Total
Merchandise Merchandise
Exports
Imports
(fob, US$bn) (fob, US$bn)

Merchandise
Trade
Balance
(fob-fob,
US$bn)

Current
Account
Balance
(US$bn)

2011, 2012 and 2013 Consensus Forecasts for


Real GDP Growth from Survey of:
%

28-Day
CETES
Rate (%)

4.6
2011

4.4

ExportaTasa de
Saldo en
Balanza
Importaciones de
Inters
Cuenta
ciones de Comercial
Mercancas Mercancas (fab-fab,
CETES
Corriente
(fab, US$ (fab, US$bn) US$bn)
(US$bn) a 28 das (%)
bn)
End
End
2012 2013 2012 2013 2012 2013 2012 2013 Apr.
12 Jan. 13

362.4
405.4
365.0
276.3
408.9
362.0
372.2
365.3
372.5
391.3
363.4
397.1
365.6
359.4
379.2
373.8
369.5
377.0

379.8
470.3
390.0
280.0
452.1
395.0
397.1
399.3
401.0
432.9
na
na
404.5
400.9
401.8
394.3
na
417.5

373.9
410.7
375.0
285.0
416.6
369.0
381.6
378.3
379.0
398.3
366.5
400.7
378.5
380.5
380.6
380.4
382.5
386.0

390.0
476.5
395.0
290.6
462.0
404.0
411.5
417.3
409.5
441.0
na
na
418.8
421.1
402.9
407.6
na
427.5

370.4 401.1 379.1 411.7

-11.5
-5.3
-10.0
-8.7
-7.7
-7.0
-9.4
-13.0
-6.5
-7.0
-2.9
-3.6
-12.9
-21.2
-1.4
-6.6
-13.0
-9.0

-10.2
-6.2
-5.0
-10.5
-9.9
-9.0
-14.4
-18.0
-8.5
-8.0
na
na
-14.4
-20.2
-1.2
-13.3
na
-10.0

-14.1
-6.4
-17.0
-16.1
-10.6
-11.0
-13.0
-15.5
-14.2
-12.0
-12.4
-8.3
-24.7
-32.9
-13.0
-16.5
-14.2
-13.8

2010
2011
2012
Jan Mar May July Sep Nov Jan Mar May July Sep Nov Jan

-12.2
-9.3
-17.0
-14.9
-12.4
-14.0
-20.4
-19.0
-15.9
-13.0
na
na
-27.8
-33.7
-8.3
-24.7
na
-15.8

4.6
4.5
4.3
4.5
4.3
4.5
4.3
4.3
4.0
4.3
4.3
4.2
4.5
4.5
na
4.5
4.4
4.4

6.0
5.2
4.8
4.9
4.4
4.5
4.4
4.0
4.0
4.0
4.5
na
4.5
4.5
na
4.5
4.3
4.4

-8.7 -10.6 -14.8 -17.2

4.4

4.5

4.2
4.0

2012

3.8
3.6
2013

3.4
3.2
3.0
2.8

2011 GDP forecasts have improved in recent


months following a 4.5% (y-o-y) expansion in Q3
GDP growth. Despite this, the 2012 outlook has
remained downbeat until now. Our panels
forecasts have seen an uptick on the back of
improving US economic news. Concerns remain
over the outlook for external demand, though.

2011, 2012 and 2013 Consensus Forecasts for


Consumer Prices from Survey of:

%, Dec/
Dec

2010
2011
2012
Jan Mar May July Sep Nov Jan Mar May July Sep Nov Jan
4.0
2011

3.9
3.8
2012

3.7

-9.6
-16.1
368.9
378.5
374.4
384.7
-10.4
-15.9
408.9 470.3 416.6 476.5 -1.4 -1.2 -6.4 -8.3
276.3 280.0 285.0 290.6 -21.2 -20.2 -32.9 -33.7
27.9 41.4 27.1 41.0 4.6 4.9 6.0 7.0

3.6

4.6
4.0
0.1

6.0
4.0
0.5

3.5
3.4
3.3
3.2

-10.9 -11.6

Consumer price inflation ended 2011 at


3.8% (y-o-y), from 3.5% in November, and
near the top of Banco de Mxicos 2-4%
target range. This was much stronger than
expected (as the chart illustrates). Unseasonably cold weather, along with drought
in October, boosted agricultural prices
which, in turn, lifted the headline rate. In
addition, there have been pass-through
effects from a weaker peso against the US
dollar. Banxico has left monetary policy in
neutral, however.

2013

Monthly Inflation Forecasts


Forecast

Consumer prices, Banco de Mexico index, not seasonally adjusted


Consensus forecasts
shown in bold italics
2011

2012

% change on
previous month

J u ly
A ug
Sep
Oct
N ov
Dec
Jan
Fe b
M ar
A pr
M ay
J une

0 .5
0 .2
0 .2
0 .7
1 .1
0 .8
0 .5
0 .3
0 .3
0 .0
-0 .5
0 .1

% change on
same month in
previous year
3 .5
3 .4
3 .1
3 .2
3 .5
3 .8
3 .8
3 .8
4 .0
4 .0
4 .3
4 .4

1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6

0.4
0.2
0.0
-0.2
-0.4
-0.6

D e c e m be r 2 0 1 2
D e c e m be r 2 0 1 3

3 .7
3 .6

Readers should note that the December y-o-y figure for the current year
may not equate to the Dec/Dec consensus forecast shown on the main
table, since the number of survey respondents may be different, or
because of rounding.
Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2012

-0.8
Jan 07 Jul 07

Jan 08 Jul 08 Jan 09

Jul 09 Jan 10

Jul 10 Jan 11 Jul 11

Jan 12

----- Consensus plus 1 Standard Deviation


Actual and Consensus
----- Consensus minus 1 Standard Deviation
9

VENEZUELA

JANUARY 2012
% Change, Average Annual
Annual Total
Dec-on-Dec
% change
Central
Consumer
Nominal
Manufacturing
Government
Prices
Wages
Production
Budget Balance
(Caracas
(OCEI, all
(% of GDP)
Metropolitan
employees)
Area)
Precios al
Salarios
Balance del
Produccin
Consumidor
Nominales
Gobierno
Manufacturera
(Area
(OCEI,
Central
Metropolitana
Sueldo)
(% de PIB)
de Caracas)

Average % Change on Previous Calendar Year


Gross
Domestic
Product

Private
Consumption

Gross
Fixed
Investment

Producto
Interno
Bruto

Consumo
Privado

Inversin
Bruta
Fija

Economic Forecasters

2012

2013

2012

2013

2012

2013

2012

2013

2012

2013

2012

2013

2012

2013

BofA - Merrill Lynch


Barclays Capital
Ecoanalitica
Coyuntura (Maxim Ross)
Banco Mercantil
Banesco
JP Morgan Chase
Datanalisis
Deutsche Bank Rsrch
HSBC
Azpurua Garcia Velazquez
Econ Intelligence Unit
Citigroup
IHS Global Insight

5.0
4.9
4.8
4.7
4.5
4.1
4.0
4.0
4.0
4.0
3.8
3.5
3.0
2.5

-3.9
na
-1.4
na
na
3.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
1.9
4.0
2.1
3.4
3.3

6.4
5.5
5.5
4.1
7.6
5.1
10.0
6.0
3.5
7.5
na
5.8
7.2
4.0

-5.5
na
0.4
na
na
5.0
3.0
1.5
3.0
1.8
na
4.2
0.8
3.8

3.5
5.0
1.6
4.9
14.7
8.5
4.0
5.0
1.0
10.1
na
3.0
-4.0
8.4

-7.9
na
0.8
na
na
6.0
1.5
-1.0
1.0
6.5
na
3.0
2.2
10.9

na
na
5.3
3.2
3.8
5.0
5.0
na
2.4
5.8
na
2.3
na
2.0

na
na
1.2
na
na
5.0
0.0
na
3.2
1.7
na
1.4
na
2.8

35.0
36.5
29.5
31.3
25.3
31.2
30.0
28.0
27.0
30.4
27.2
28.7
27.0
24.7

54.0
na
30.9
na
na
32.0
35.0
28.0
25.0
32.1
29.1
24.3
29.0
24.0

na
na
35.0
30.5
29.5
24.8
na
30.0
na
na
na
na
na
na

na
na
25.0
na
na
21.0
na
25.0
na
na
na
na
na
na

-6.5
-4.9
-6.7
-5.2
-7.2
na
-6.0
-5.0
-3.7
na
-1.9
na
-5.2
na

1.0
na
-5.1
na
na
na
-2.5
-2.0
-3.2
na
-2.0
na
-3.8
na

Consensus (Mean)

4.1

1.7

6.0

1.8

5.1

2.3

3.9

2.2

29.4

31.2

29.9

23.7

-5.2

-2.5

Last Month's Mean


3 Months Ago
High
Low
Standard Deviation

3.9
3.3
5.0
2.5
0.7

4.0
-3.9
2.4

5.6
4.6
10.0
3.5
1.8

5.0
-5.5
3.0

4.5
4.5
14.7
-4.0
4.7

10.9
-7.9
5.0

3.6
3.3
5.8
2.0
1.4

5.0
0.0
1.6

29.3
28.2
36.5
24.7
3.4

54.0
24.0
8.3

28.6
25.8
35.0
24.8
3.6

25.0
21.0
2.3

-4.9
-4.8
-1.9
-7.2
1.6

1.0
-5.1
1.9

Comparison Forecasts
Corp Andina de
Fomento (Jan. '12)
IMF (Sep. '11)
ECLAC (Dec. '11)

4.1
3.6
3.0

4.7

-3.0

4.3

-4.5

4.0

-2.7

27.5
24.0

34.5
23.7

32.5

25.0

-8.0

-4.5

US$
Billion
40

35
30

-2.5
2.1

Historical Data

Foreign Currency Reserves and


Current Account Balance
Foreign Currency Reserves (US$bn).
Consensus Forecasts for:
End-2012 17.7
End-2013 24.6

2008 2009 2010 2011

Forecast

25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
'89 '91
10

'93 '95

'97 '99

'01

Current
Account
Balance
'03 '05 '07 '09

'11 '13

Gross Domestic Product*


Private Consumption*
Gross Fixed Investment*
Manufacturing Production*
Consumer Prices, Caracas
Metropolitan Area (Dec/Dec,%)
Nominal Wages,
all employees*
Central Government Budget
Balance (% of GDP)
Merchandise Exports, fob1
Merchandise Imports, fob (-)1
Trade Balance, fob-fob1
Current Account Balance1
30-Day Deposit Rate
(%), end year
Foreign Currency Reserves,
ex Gold & SDRs, end year1

5 .3
6 .3
2 .4
1 .4

- 3 .2
- 2 .9
- 8 .3
- 6 .4

- 1 .5
- 1 .9
- 6 .3
- 3 .4

4 .0
4 .1
1 .0
3 .5

3 1 .9

2 6 .9

2 7 .4

2 9 .0

2 3 .7

2 2 .2

2 6 .0

3 5 .1 e

- 4 .9 e - 4 .3 e

- 1 .2

- 5 .1

9 5 .0
5 1 .0
4 4 .1
3 4 .3

5 7 .6
3 9 .6
1 8 .0
6 .0

6 5 .7
3 8 .6
2 7 .1
1 2 .1

9 3 .9
4 5 .6
4 8 .3
3 1 .5

1 7 .3

1 5 .4

1 4 .6

1 4 .5

3 2 .6

1 7 .7

9 .2

1 8 .3 e

* average % change on previous year. 1 in US$, billions


e = consensus estimate from latest survey
Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2012

VENEZUELA

JANUARY 2012
Annual Total

Rate on Survey
Date: 14.5%

2011, 2012 and 2013 Consensus Forecasts for


%
Real GDP from Survey of:
2010
2011
2012
Jan Mar May July Sep Nov Jan Mar May July Sep Nov Jan

Merchan- Merchandise Merchandise


dise
Imports
Trade Balance
Exports (fob, US$bn)
(fob-fob,
(fob, US$bn)
US$bn)

Current
Account
Balance
(US$bn)

30-Day
Deposit
Rate (%)

ImportaExportaciones de
ciones de
Mercancas Mercancas
(fab, US$) (fab, US$bn)

Saldo en
Cuenta
Corriente
(US$bn)

Tasa de
Inters de
Depsitos a
30 das (%)

Balanza
Comercial
(fab-fab,
US$bn)

2012

2013 2012 2013

2012

2013

2012 2013

End
End
Apr. 12 Jan. 13

99.6
97.3
99.2
99.4
93.6
100.0
91.7
90.0
85.0
97.0
85.1
86.2
86.3
88.6

111.2
na
105.0
na
na
105.0
106.2
87.0
85.0
98.4
85.0
90.6
99.2
90.0

49.7
43.1
51.1
47.7
39.6
48.0
45.5
36.0
27.0
41.4
39.0
33.2
34.0
38.3

66.0
na
64.5
na
na
57.0
61.0
37.0
30.0
41.9
39.0
33.9
45.3
35.3

31.2
22.3
34.4
28.2
22.6
38.0
26.8
22.0
13.0
21.2
25.2
14.5
21.4
20.6

na
na
12.0
14.0
14.5
14.6
na
15.0
15.0
15.0
14.3
na
na
na

92.8

49.8
54.2
48.1
51.8
54.1
52.0
46.2
54.0
58.0
55.6
46.1
52.9
52.3
50.3

45.2
na
40.5
na
na
48.0
45.2
50.0
55.0
56.4
46.0
56.7
53.9
54.6

96.6

51.8

50.1 41.0 46.5

24.4

89.8
88.4
100.0 111.2
85.0 85.0
5.9
9.5

50.9
48.7
58.0
46.1
3.4

38.8
39.7
56.7 51.1 66.0
40.5 27.0 30.0
5.5
7.0 13.2

23.2
24.0
38.0
13.0
7.0

49.2
na
49.7
na
na
46.0
41.6
22.0
14.0
19.6
28.5
13.6
32.7
15.5
30.2

14.3

5.1

Banco Central de Venezuela released


2011 estimates for the national
accounts and balance of payments.
GDP grew by 4.0% following a 1.5%
decline in 2010. Investment managed
only a 1.0% advance, though, and
despite robust oil prices, petrol output
rose by a mere 0.6% (y-o-y).
Meanwhile, the government opted out
of the World Bank arbitration body,
leaving compensation claims by
foreign oil companies unsettled.

4.5
3.9
3.3
2.7

na
na
15.6
na
na
na
na
15.0
17.0
14.0
14.0
na
na
na

2.1

2013

0.9
0.3

2011, 2012 and 2013 Consensus Forecasts for


Consumer Prices from Survey of:

%, Dec/
Dec

2010
2011
2012
Jan Mar May July Sep Nov Jan Mar May July Sep Nov Jan

35.0

Inflation crept up from 28.9% (y-o-y) in November to


29.0% in December, although the m-o-m rate eased from
2.2% to 1.8%. However, increases in state-mandated
prices for a range of goods and services should keep
inflation high over 2012 and 2013 and continue eroding
Venezuelans current and future purchasing power.

34.0

15.1

32.0

15.0
12.0
1.0

2011

1.5

33.0

49.7
13.6
14.4

2012

17.0
14.0
1.3

31.0

2013

30.0

2011

29.0
28.0

90.5

85.0

55.0

50.0 35.5 35.0

15.5
18.0

2012

20.0
15.0

27.0
26.0

Monthly Inflation Forecasts


Consumer prices, Caracas, not seasonally adjusted
Consensus forecasts
shown in bold italics
2011

2012

% change on
previous month

J u ly
A ug
Sep
Oct
N ov
D ec
Jan
Fe b
Mar
A pr
May
J u ne

2 .5
1 .7
1 .5
2 .2
2 .2
1 .8
1 .8
1 .9
2 .0
2 .2
2 .5
2 .2

% change on
same month in
previous year
2 6 .1
2 6 .5
2 6 .7
2 7 .7
2 8 .9
2 9 .0
2 6 .8
2 6 .4
2 7 .0
2 8 .1
2 7 .6
2 7 .7

Forecast

6.0
5.6
5.2
4.8
4.4
4.0
3.6

3.2
2.8
2.4
2.0
1.6
1.2
0.8
0.4

D e c e m be r 2 0 1 2
D e c e m be r 2 0 1 3

2 9 .4
3 1 .2

Readers should note that the December y-o-y figure for the current year
may not equate to the Dec/Dec consensus forecast shown on the main
table, since the number of survey respondents may be different, or
because of rounding.
Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2012

0.0
-0.4
-0.8
Jan 07

Jul 07

Jan 08

Jul 08

Jan 09

Jul 09

Jan 10

Jul 10

Jan 11

Jul 11

Jan 12

----- Consensus plus 1 Standard Deviation


Actual and Consensus
----- Consensus minus 1 Standard Deviation
11

COLOMBIA

JANUARY 2012
Average % Change on Previous Year
Final
Gross
Domestic Consumption
Product

Gross
Fixed
Investment

Manufacturing
Production (ex.
coffee)

% Change,
Dec-on-Dec

Annual Total

End Year

Consumer Merchan- Merchan- Merchan- Current


Prices
dise
dise
dise
Account
Exports
Imports
Trade
Balance
(fob,
(fob,
Balance (US$bn)
US$bn)
US$bn) (US$bn)

Foreign
Currency
Reserves
(IMF,
US$bn)

Producto Consumo Inversin Produccin Precios al Exporta- Importa- Balanza Saldo en Reservas
Interno
Final
Bruta
Manufac- Consumidor ciones de ciones de Comercial Cuenta de Divisas
Bruto
Fija
turera
Mercancas Mercancas (US$bn) Corriente Extranjeras
(fab,US$bn) (fab,US$bn)
(US$bn) (FMI,US$bn)
Economic Forecasters 2012 2013 2012 2013 2012 2013 2012 2013 2012 2013 2012 2013 2012 2013 20122013 2012 2013 2012 2013

Bulltick

5.0

5.0

5.2 5.0

8.0 10.0

4.0 4.0

3.5

3.3 58.0 62.0 57.0 61.0 1.0

Deutsche Bank

5.0

5.0

4.7 4.8 10.0 11.0

7.0 7.0

3.4

3.2 63.8 75.0 63.6 76.0 0.2 -1.0 -8.0 -8.5 40.0 44.0

Banco de Bogota

4.9

4.3

4.6 4.6 11.9 9.0

3.9 3.4

3.6

3.0 62.6 65.4 58.3 62.3 4.3

3.1 -13.5 -13.7 33.9 35.5

Citigroup

4.8

5.2

5.3 5.6

4.2 3.3

na

4.0

4.2 66.1 75.3 59.5 68.0 6.6

7.3 -9.1 -11.1 36.4 41.2

CESLA (Klein-UAM)

4.8

4.6

4.5 4.3

7.5 7.3

4.1 4.4

3.6

3.4 47.0 48.8 42.9 44.0 4.1

4.8 -7.2 -8.0 30.8 32.0

ANIF

4.5

4.8

4.4 4.7 12.4 14.0

3.8 4.0

3.6

3.7 65.4 78.6 61.7 73.9 3.7

4.8 -8.7 -9.7 36.9 40.7

Econ Intelligence Unit

4.4

4.6

4.9 4.7

9.6 10.2

3.5 4.0

3.5

2.9 56.7 62.6 54.6 59.9 2.1

2.7 -10.3 -10.0 34.9 36.9

HSBC

4.3

4.5

3.6 4.0

8.9 9.9

5.5 6.1

2.7

3.0 56.4 63.1 58.4 63.7 -2.1 -0.6 -13.2 -13.6 35.1 33.5

BofA - Merrill Lynch

4.1

4.0

4.9 4.2 10.2 7.5

na

na

3.3

3.0 60.7 65.5 57.9 62.6 2.7

Credit Suisse

4.0

4.5

4.2 4.5

7.7 8.2

na

na

3.0

3.3 58.4 61.8 57.8 64.7 0.6 -2.9 -12.7 -15.7

JP Morgan Chase

4.0

5.0

4.2 5.2

6.0 5.0

2.5 6.0

3.0

3.5 60.6 72.3 61.1 70.5 -0.4

Capital Economics

3.0

4.0

3.0 4.0

7.5 10.0

3.0 4.0

3.0

3.3 45.0 44.0 43.0 46.0 2.0 -2.0 -11.0 -15.0

Consensus (Mean)

4.4

4.6

4.5 4.6

8.7 8.8

4.1 4.8

3.4

3.3 58.4 64.5 56.3 62.7 2.1

Last Month's Mean

4.5

4.5

8.3

4.1

3.5

57.0

55.1

1.8

-8.5

34.3

3 Months Ago

4.6

4.8

7.7

4.4

3.3

53.7

52.6

1.1

-10.0

34.7

High

5.0

5.2

5.3 5.6 12.4 14.0

7.0 7.0

4.0

4.2 66.1 78.6 63.6 76.0 6.6

Low

3.0

4.0

3.0 4.0

4.2 3.3

2.5 3.4

2.7

2.9 45.0 44.0 42.9 44.0 -2.1 -2.9 -13.5 -15.7 30.8 32.0

Standard Deviation

0.6

0.4

0.7 0.5

2.3 2.8

1.4 1.3

0.4

0.4

5.2

5.0

5.5 5.2 11.0 9.0

4.5 4.5

3.5

3.0 63.7 73.9 57.2 66.9 6.5

IMF (Sep. '11)

4.5

4.5

3.1

3.0

ECLAC (Dec. '11)

4.5

na

6.6 10.3

6.7 9.7 2.4

1.0 -10.0 -11.0 37.0 39.0

2.9 -9.5 -9.5 36.4 38.0


na

na

1.8 -12.8 -12.7 34.0 38.0


na

na

1.8 -10.5 -11.5 35.5 37.9

7.3 -7.2 -8.0 40.0 44.0


3.1

2.1

2.5

2.4

3.6

Comparison Forecasts
Corp Andina de
Fomento (Jan. '12)

2011, 2012 and 2013 Consensus Forecasts for


Real GDP Growth from Survey of:

2010
2011
2012
Jan Mar May July Sep Nov Jan Mar May July Sep Nov Jan

5.6

2012
2013

4.4

2011

3.2
2.8

12

Government and Background Data


President - Mr. Juan Manuel Santos. Next Elections - May 2014
(presidential). Nominal GDP - Ps497,697bn (2009). Population - 45.7
million (mid-year, 2009). Peso/US$ Exchange Rate - Ps2156.43=US$1
(average, 2009).

2008

4.8

3.6

-8.4 -7.5

Historical Data

5.2

4.0

7.0 -10.6 -10.5 36.2 40.2

The Colombian economy is now estimated to


have grown by 5.5% in 2011, up from 5.2% in
our December survey. The stronger growth
figure stems from a particularly robust Q3
performance (real GDP growth up 7.7% yo-y), thanks to booming mining and
construction activity. However, signs of
slowing activity are already emerging in Q4,
and softer growth is being projected for this
year. Meanwhile, in spite of the vigour shown
by the economy, the central bank managed to
hit its 2.0-4.0% target range for inflation after
consumer price rises ended 2011 at 3.73%.

Gross Domestic Product*


3.5
Final Consumption*
3.5
Gross Fixed Investment*
9.9
Manuf. Production (excl. coffee)* 0.5
Consumer Prices,
7.7
(Dec/Dec, %)
38.5
Merchandise Exports, fob1
Merchandise Imports, fob1 (-) 37.6
1.0
Trade Balance, fob-fob1
-6.8
Current Account Balance1
Foreign Currency Reserves,
excl. Gold & SDRs, end year1 22.8

2009
1.5
1.4
-0.8
-3.9

2010
4.3
5.0
8.3
4.5

2011
5.5 e
5.9 e
13.8 e
4.6 e

2.0
34.0
31.5
2.5
-5.0

3.2
40.8
38.6
2.1
-8.9

3.7
53.8 e
50.7 e
3.1 e
-9.5 e

23.2

26.3

32.9 e

* average % change on previous year 1 in US$, billions


e = consensus estimate based on latest survey
Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2012

PERU

JANUARY 2012
Average % Change on Previous Year
Gross
Private
Domestic
ConProduct sumption

Gross
Fixed
Investment

% Change,
Dec-on-Dec

Annual Total

End Year

Manufac- Consumer Merchan- Merchan- Merchandise


turing
dise
Prices
dise
Produc- (INEI, Lima Exports Imports
Trade
(fob,
tion
(fob,
MetropoliBalance
US$bn)
US$bn)
tan Area)
(US$bn)

Current
Account
Balance
(US$bn)

Foreign
Currency
Reserves
(IMF,
US$bn)

Producto Consumo Inversin Produccin Precios al Exporta- Importa- Balanza Saldo en Reservas
Manufac- Consumidor ciones de ciones de Comercial Cuenta de Divisas
Bruta
Privado
Interno
turera
Fija
Bruto
(INEI, Area Mercancas Mercancas (US$bn) Corriente Extranjeras
(fab,
(FMI,
(fab,
Metropolitana
(US$bn)
US$bn)
US$bn)
US$bn)
de Lima)
Economic Forecasters 2012 2013 2012 2013 2012 2013 2012 2013 2012 2013 2012 2013 2012 2013 2012 2013 2012 2013 2012 2013

Banco de Credito del Peru


Scotiabank
Citigroup
Deutsche Bank
Apoyo Consultoria
IHS Global Insight
BofA - Merrill Lynch
CESLA (Klein-UAM)
Econ Intelligence Unit
Credit Suisse
Inteligo SAB
HSBC
JP Morgan Chase
Macroconsult
Capital Economics

5.5
5.5
5.5
5.4
5.3
5.3
5.2
5.2
5.1
5.0
5.0
4.8
4.5
4.5
4.0

6.0
5.6
6.5
5.5
na
5.6
2.9
5.3
5.9
5.5
6.0
5.7
7.0
na
5.0

5.7
5.4
4.5
5.5
5.3
5.9
6.9
4.1
5.4
5.1
5.6
5.2
4.8
4.8
4.0

6.0 11.1 9.2


5.8 8.0 7.0
6.4 8.5 7.8
5.0 8.0 10.0
na 8.6 na
5.5 8.5 7.5
4.8 6.1 4.3
4.8 7.4 7.9
5.1 10.3 9.5
5.5 6.7 7.9
5.8 10.2 11.2
5.8 9.5 13.4
6.5 7.0 11.5
na 8.6 na
4.5 5.0 7.5

5.2
4.5
na
6.3
3.6
na
na
5.0
na
na
3.5
6.0
5.0
3.6
4.0

6.9
5.6
na
6.0
na
na
na
5.0
na
na
6.0
6.8
7.5
na
5.0

2.5
3.0
2.8
3.4
3.0
3.0
3.0
2.9
2.8
2.8
2.5
2.5
2.8
2.5
2.5

2.0
2.5
3.0
3.0
na
1.8
3.5
2.8
3.0
2.0
2.5
2.6
3.0
na
3.8

43.2
43.0
37.3
49.0
na
43.4
48.2
36.0
42.9
44.1
42.7
46.0
56.9
na
40.0

7.6
8.0
3.3
3.5
7.5
7.0
6.6
7.8
8.3
8.1
7.1
5.1
6.5
4.2
6.0

6.9
9.0
2.4
2.1
na
6.4
6.3
8.0
8.7
6.7
8.8
4.6
8.2
na
6.0

Consensus (Mean)

5.1

5.6

5.2

5.5

8.8

4.7 6.1

2.8

2.7 46.5 50.5 40.1 44.1

6.4

6.5 -4.3 -4.8 51.4 55.1

Last Month's Mean


3 Months Ago
High
Low
Standard Deviation

5.2
5.3
5.5
4.0
0.4

7.0
2.9
1.0

5.2
4.9
6.9
4.0
0.7

8.8
9.1
6.5 11.1 13.4
4.5 5.0 4.3
0.6 1.6 2.3

4.7
5.6
6.3 7.5
3.5 5.0
1.0 0.9

2.7
2.6
3.4
2.5
0.3

46.0
39.9
46.0
39.7
3.8 51.5 65.1 45.0 56.9
1.8 39.3 39.7 35.2 36.0
0.6 2.9 5.9 2.9 5.4

6.1
6.3
8.3
3.3
1.7

-4.4
51.4
-4.2
53.0
9.0 -2.3 -2.8 56.7 63.2
2.1 -6.7 -7.8 48.0 50.0
2.3 1.4 1.5 2.4 3.9

5.7

5.7

5.1

4.7 10.2 10.4

5.0 5.0

2.7

2.0 44.2 49.0 39.1 43.5

5.1

5.4 -6.3 -6.2 55.0 60.0

5.6
5.0

6.0

2.5

2.0

Comparison Forecasts
Corp Andina de
Fomento (Jan. '12)
IMF (Sep. '11)
ECLAC (Dec. '11)

8.2

2011, 2012 and 2013 Consensus Forecasts for


Consumer Prices from Survey of:

%, Dec/
Dec

2010
2011
2012
Jan Mar May July Sep Nov Jan Mar May July Sep Nov Jan

46.9
47.2
39.3
48.5
45.5
47.4
50.4
43.0
48.2
48.2
46.0
45.6
51.5
46.0
44.5

50.1
52.0
39.7
51.1
na
49.8
54.5
44.0
51.6
50.8
51.5
50.7
65.1
na
46.0

39.3
39.1
36.0
45.0
38.0
40.4
43.8
35.2
40.0
40.1
38.9
40.5
45.0
41.8
38.5

-4.8
-3.5
-6.6
-3.0
-3.2
-2.3
-4.3
-3.4
-2.6
-4.1
-4.7
-6.7
-6.5
-4.6
-5.0

-3.9
-4.2
-7.2
-3.5
na
-2.8
-5.0
-3.5
-3.9
-5.4
-4.1
-7.8
-5.6
na
-5.0

54.6
51.5
53.1
51.0
51.5
50.1
48.0
49.0
56.7
na
52.5
49.2
52.0
49.3
na

57.1
56.0
53.9
53.0
na
51.2
52.0
50.0
63.2
na
57.8
53.2
59.0
na
na

-5.0 -5.7

Government and Background Data


President - Mr. Ollanta Humala Next Elections - 2016 (Presidential).
Nominal GDP - S381.671bn (2009). Population - 29.16 million (midyear, 2009). Sol/US$ Exchange Rate - 3.01 = US$1 (average, 2009).

5.0

Annual inflation rose for the third straight month in


4.8 December, ending last year at 4.74%, well exceeding
4.6 the top end of the central banks 1.0-3.0% target
range. The increase was spurred by higher food
4.4 costs owing to tighter supply. Elevated prices come
4.2 at a time of slowing economic activity, but for now there
appears to be limited room for a rate cut. The overnight
4.0 rate was kept on hold at 4.25% for an eighth straight
3.8 month at Januarys monetary policy meeting. Inflation
expectations for end-2012 have now risen to 2.8%.
3.6

Historical Data

2011

3.4
3.2
3.0
2.8
2.6
2.4
Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2012

2012
2013

Gross Domestic Product*


Private Consumption*
Gross Fixed Investment*
Manufacturing Production*
Consumer Prices,
(Dec/Dec, %), INEI Lima
Merchandise Exports, fob1
Merchandise Imports, fob1 (-)
Trade Balance, fob-fob1
Current Account Balance1
Foreign Currency Reserves,
excl. Gold & SDRs, end year1

2008
9.8
8.7
27.1
9.1

2009
0.9
2.4
-9.2
-7.2

2010
8.8
6.0
23.2
13.6

2011
6.8
6.2
8.6
6.1

e
e
e
e

6.7
31.0
28.4
2.6
-5.3

0.2
27.0
21.0
6.0
0.2

2.1
35.6
28.8
6.7
-2.3

4.7
44.6
36.9
7.7
-3.3

e
e
e
e

30.3
31.0
41.7
* average % change on previous year 1 in US$, billions
e = consensus estimate based on latest survey

48.5 e

13

ADDITIONAL COUNTRIES

JANUARY 2012

Forecasts for a number of additional countries, shown below and opposite, were provided by the following leading economic
forecasters:

Citigroup
Economist Intelligence Unit
JP Morgan

Copades/CEFSA
HSBC

Deutsche Bank
IHS Global Insight
Oxford Economics

e = consensus estimate based on latest survey

BOLIVIA

Economy
Nominal GDP - US$17.2bn (2009)
Gross Domestic Product (annual average % change)
Consumer Prices (December-on-December % change)
Current Account (US Dollars, bn)

COSTA RICA

Historical Data

Population - 9.9mn (2009, mid-year)

2008
6.1
11.9
2.0

Population - 4.6mn (2009, mid-year)

Economy
Nominal GDP - US$29.3bn (2009)
Gross Domestic Product (annual average % change)
Consumer Prices (December-on-December % change)
Current Account (US Dollars, bn)

ECUADOR

2008
2.7
13.9
-2.8

EL SALVADOR

14

2008
5.3
4.5
-4.5

2009
-1.3
4.1
-0.6

2010
4.2
5.8
-1.3

2009
3.5
5.8
-2.3

2010
7.8
6.2
-4.4

2008
7.2
8.8
1.4

2009
0.4
4.3
-0.2

2010
3.6
3.3
-1.9

2011
3.8 e
4.6 e
-2.1 e

2009
-3.1
0.1
-0.3

2010
1.4
2.1
-0.5

2013
4.1
6.3
1.3

2012
3.6
5.0
-2.1

2013
4.0
5.6
-2.1

Consensus Forecasts
2011
4.4 e
8.2 e
-5.5 e

2012
4.8
6.2
-4.4

2013
4.9
5.6
-4.2

Consensus Forecasts
2011
5.8 e
5.5 e
-1.7 e

Historical Data
2008
1.3
5.5
-1.5

2012
3.7
5.9
1.2

Consensus Forecasts

Historical Data

Population - 6.2mn (2009, mid-year)

Economy
Nominal GDP - US$21.1bn (2009)
Gross Domestic Product (annual average % change)
Consumer Prices (December-on-December % change)
Current Account (US Dollars, bn)

2011
4.7 e
7.6 e
1.0 e

Historical Data

Population - 13.6mn (2009, mid-year)

Economy
Nominal GDP - US$52.0bn (2009)
Gross Domestic Product (annual average % change)
Consumer Prices (December-on-December % change)
Current Account (US Dollars, bn)

2010
4.1
7.2
0.9

Historical Data

DOMINICAN REP Popn - 10.1mn (2009, mid-year)


Economy
Nominal GDP - US$46.8bn (2009)
Gross Domestic Product (annual average % change)
Consumer Prices (December-on-December % change)
Current Account (US Dollars, bn)

2009
3.4
0.3
0.8

Consensus Forecasts

2012
3.8
4.1
-2.2

2013
3.8
4.7
-1.7

Consensus Forecasts
2011
1.6 e
5.5 e
-1.0 e

2012
1.9
3.9
-1.0

2013
2.4
3.7
-1.1

Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2012

ADDITIONAL COUNTRIES

JANUARY 2012

GUATEMALA

Economy
Nominal GDP - US$37.3bn (2009)
Gross Domestic Product (annual average % change)
Consumer Prices (December-on-December % change)
Current Account (US Dollars, bn)

HONDURAS

PARAGUAY

2008
2.8
13.8
-1.5

2011
3.3 e
6.4 e
-2.0 e

2009
-2.1
2.9
-0.6

2010
2.8
6.5
-1.0

2009
-1.5
0.9
-0.8

2010
4.5
9.2
-1.0

2008
10.1
6.4
-2.7

2009
3.2
1.7
0.0

2010
7.5
4.9
-3.0

2011
3.4 e
6.0 e
-1.1 e

2009
-3.8
1.9
0.0

2010
14.5
7.2
-0.6

2011
4.4 e
7.3 e
-1.2 e

2009
2.6
6.1
0.2

2010
8.5
7.0
-0.2

2012
3.1
5.4
-1.2

2013
3.9
5.9
-1.2

2012
2.9
7.2
-1.0

2013
3.2
7.2
-1.1

Consensus Forecasts
2011
9.5 e
6.5 e
-4.0 e

2012
6.4
4.8
-4.2

2013
6.3
4.5
-4.4

Consensus Forecasts
2011
4.2 e
5.9 e
-0.6 e

Historical Data
2008
8.6
9.0
-1.5

2013
3.3
5.8
-2.8

Consensus Forecasts

Historical Data
2008
5.8
7.5
-0.3

2012
2.9
5.7
-2.2

Consensus Forecasts

Historical Data

Population - 3.4mn (2009, mid-year)

Economy
Nominal GDP - US$31.6bn (2009)
Gross Domestic Product (annual average % change)
Consumer Prices (December-on-December % change)
Current Account (US Dollars, bn)

2010
2.8
5.4
-0.9

Historical Data

Population - 6.4mn (2009, mid-year)

Economy
Nominal GDP - US$14.2bn (2009)
Gross Domestic Product (annual average % change)
Consumer Prices (December-on-December % change)
Current Account (US Dollars, bn)

URUGUAY

2008
4.2
10.8
-2.1

Population - 3.5mn (2009, mid-year)

Economy
Nominal GDP - US$24.3bn (2009)
Gross Domestic Product (annual average % change)
Consumer Prices (December-on-December % change)
Current Account (US Dollars, bn)

2009
0.5
-0.3
-0.1

Consensus Forecasts

Historical Data

Population - 5.7mn (2009, mid-year)

Economy
Nominal GDP - US$6.2bn (2009)
Gross Domestic Product (annual average % change)
Consumer Prices (December-on-December % change)
Current Account (US Dollars, bn)

PANAMA

2008
3.3
9.4
-1.8

Population - 7.5mn (2009, mid-year)

Economy
Nominal GDP - US$14.4bn (2009)
Gross Domestic Product (annual average % change)
Consumer Prices (December-on-December % change)
Current Account (US Dollars, bn)

NICARAGUA

Historical Data

Population - 14.0mn (2009, mid-year)

2012
3.9
5.4
-0.6

2013
4.5
5.6
-0.7

Consensus Forecasts
2011
5.8 e
8.3 e
-0.7 e

2012
4.4
6.7
-0.9

2013
4.3
6.0
-1.0

e = consensus estimate based on latest survey


Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2012

15

FOREIGN EXCHANGE POLICIES

Currency

JANUARY 2012

Policies

Argentinian A currency board operated between 1991-2001 (pegging the peso at


Peso
parity to the US$) which was abandoned on January 5, 2002. A dual
currency system was briefly adopted before ending on February 11,
2002. The government now operates a managed float.
Bolivian
Boliviano

The exchange rate is set by the central bank at daily auctions under a
crawling peg scheme. The central bank's monetary objective is to
preserve the internal purchasing power of the boliviano.

Brazilian
Real

The real was introduced on July 1, 1994 and traded in an adjustable band
until January 1999, when it was allowed to float independently.

Chilean
Peso

Observado rate. Links to a fixed basket of currencies were abandoned


in September 1999 and replaced with a floating exchange rate. The
objective of the central bank is to ensure currency and price stability.

2.70
2.90
3.10
3.30
3.50
3.70
3.90
4.10
4.30
4.50
4.70
4.90
5.10
5.30
Jan
07

Argentinian Pesos / US$


(inverted scale)
Forecast

Jul
07

Jan
08

Jul
08

Jan
09

Jul
09

Jan
10

Jul
10

Jan
11

Jul
11

Jan
12

Jul
12

Jan
13

Brazilian Reals / US$


(inverted scale)
1.50
1.75
2.00

Colombian Prior to September 25, 1999, the peso traded within a crawling band
system. It has since been allowed to float.
Peso
Costa Rican A crawling peg system. On October 16, 2006, the crawling peg was
modified and the colon was allowed to float within a currency band with
Colon
upper and lower limits.
Dominican
Rep Peso

2.25

Forecast
2.50
2.75
3.00
Jan
07

Jul
07

Managed float with a dual exchange rate until August 2004 (although in
July 1998, exchange controls were relaxed to allow the official exchange
rate - set by the central bank - to trade closer to the free market rate).
Since August 2004, the peso is allowed to float freely.

Ecuadorian The sucre was floated in February 1999. On January 9, 2000, the central
bank announced plans to dollarize the economy, and the US$ replaced
Sucre
the sucre at the rate of Es25,000 = US$1 in March 2000.

Jan
08

Jul
08

Jan
09

Jul
09

Jan
10

Jul
10

Jan
11

Jul
11

Jan
12

Jul
12

Jan
13

Chilean Pesos / US$


(inverted scale)
Forecast

440
480
520

A monetary integration plan beginning January 1, 2001 introduced the


El
Salvadorian US dollar as legal tender alongside the Salvadoran coln at the pegged
rate of colns 8.75=US$1. Both the US$ and the coln are legal tender.
Coln
Guatemalan Managed float. The rate is determined by transactions in the interbank
market.
Quetzal
Honduran
Lempira

The exchange rate is determined in the foreign exchange auctions and


the authorities ensure that all bids fall within a +/-7.0% band around the
base price.

Mexican
Peso

Managed float since the December 1994 devaluation; has now been
converted into an independent float since July 2, 2001. The central bank
aims for price stability via an end-year inflation target.

Nicaraguan Crawling peg. 5.0% annual depreciation against the US$. There are no
significant exchange or capital controls.
Crdoba
Panamanian The balboa has been pegged to the US$ at parity since 1904.
Balboa
Paraguayan Managed float in place since early 1998, with the central bank intervening to smooth out fluctuations.
Guarani
Peruvian
Sol

600
640
680
720
Jan
07

Jul
07

Jan
08

Jul
08

Jan
09

Jul
09

Jan
10

Jul
10

Jan
11

Jul
11

Jan
12

Jul
12

Jan
13

Mexican Pesos / US$


(inverted scale)
10.00
10.40
10.80
11.20
11.60
12.00
12.40
12.80
13.20
13.60
14.00
14.40
14.80
15.20
Jan
07

Forecast

Jul
07

Jan
08

Jul
08

Jan
09

Jul
09

Jan Jul
10 10

Jan
11

Jul
11

Jan
12

Jul
12

Jan
13

The Peruvian new sol (re-denominated in July 1991) is allowed to float


independently. The objective of the central bank is to preserve stability.

Uruguayan Independent float after crawling peg abandoned in June 2002.


Peso
Venezuelan Currency controls were imposed on January 22, 2003 and the domestic
forex market closed. In March 2005, the bolivar was devalued by 10.7%
Bolvar
to Bs2147.3 = US$1. On January 1, 2008, three zeros were taken off the
currency to create the bolivar fuerte fixed at 2.1473/US$. On January
8, 2010, the fixed rate was devalued again and a multi-tiered system
introduced: 1) an official rate of Bs2.6/US$ for priority goods; b)
Bs4.2947/US$ for non-essential imports and ; c) a formalisation of the
parallel market rate. The law on unofficial US$ exchanges was tightened
in June 2010, giving the central bank control of the parallel market. The
official Bs2.6/US$ rate was scrapped on December 31, 2010 and
Bs4.2947/US$ is now used for all types of imports.

16

560

Venezuelan Bolivars / US$


(inverted scale)
1.250

Forecast

1.650
2.050
2.450
2.850
3.250
3.650
4.050
4.450
4.850
5.250
5.650
Jan
07

Jul
07

Jan
08

Jul
08

Jan
09

Jul
09

Jan
10

Jul
10

Jan
11

Jul
11

Jan
12

Jul
12

Jan
13

Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2012

FOREIGN EXCHANGE FORECASTS

JANUARY 2012

The following foreign exchange forecasts represent the consensus (mean) estimates of those forecasters polled in our current
survey. All rates are expressed as the amount of the respective currency per US dollar.

Foreign Exchange Rates against the US Dollar


All rates are amount
of national currency
per US dollar

Consensus Forecasts

Historical Data
Rates at the end of:
2008 2009 2010 2011

Latest
Forecast Percent
Spot Rate
End Apr. Change
(Jan. 16)
2012

Forecast Percent
End Jan. change
2013

Forecast Percent
End Jan. change
2014

Argentinian Peso

3.433 3.780 3.956 4.304

4.311

4.502

-4.2

5.076

-15.1

5.788

-25.5

Bolivian Boliviano

7.020 7.020 6.990 6.910

6.910

6.957

-0.7

6.934

-0.3

6.906

+0.1

Brazilian Real

2.336 1.740 1.665 1.865

1.782

1.815

-1.8

1.811

-1.6

1.892

-5.8

Chilean Peso

629.1 506.4 468.4 519.5

500.0

517.1

-3.3

515.6

-3.0

522.4

-4.3

Colombian Peso

2198

2044 1990 1939

1843

1840

+0.2

1814

+1.6

1811

+1.7

Costa Rican Colon

555.5 565.2 513.0 511.8

506.7

517.3

-2.1

523.6

-3.2

539.6

-6.1

Dominican Rep Peso 35.46 36.21 37.15 38.68

38.75

38.87

-0.3

39.61

-2.2

40.67

-4.7

Ecuadorian Sucre

1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

1.000

1.000

0.0

1.000

0.0

1.000

0.0

El Salvadorian Colon 8.752 8.748 8.748 8.748

8.748

8.748

0.0

8.748

0.0

8.748

0.0

Guatemalan Quetzal

7.774 8.347 7.995 7.815

7.807

7.908

-1.3

8.043

-2.9

8.133

-4.0

Honduran Lempira

18.90 18.90 18.90 18.99

19.05

19.33

-1.5

19.70

-3.3

20.38

-6.6

Mexican Peso

13.54 13.06 12.36 13.96

13.54

13.46

+0.6

13.15

+3.0

13.20

+2.6

Nicaraguan Cordoba 19.85 20.84 21.88 22.97

23.03

23.32

-1.3

24.32

-5.3

25.38

-9.3

Panamanian Balboa

1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

1.000

1.000

0.0

1.000

0.0

1.000

0.0

Paraguayan Guarani

4945

4623

4455

+3.8

4522

+2.2

4632

-0.2

Peruvian Sol

3.140 2.890 2.809 2.697

2.693

2.720

-1.0

2.693

0.0

2.655

+1.4

Uruguayan Peso

24.35 19.63 19.90 19.95

19.55

19.46

+0.5

19.94

-2.0

20.34

-3.9

Venezuelan Bolivar

2.147 2.147 4.290 4.295

4.295

4.497

-4.5

5.566

-22.8

6.571

-34.6

4610 4645 4435

Percent Change Forecast Against US Dollar


During the Next Twelve Months
Jan-12
4.0

Feb-12

Mar-12

Apr-12

May-12 Jun-12

Jul-12

Aug-12

Sep-12

Oct-12

Nov-12 Dec-12

Jan-13

2.0

Mexican Peso
Colombian Peso

0.0

Peruvian Sol

-2.0
-4.0

Brazilian Real
Chilean Peso

-6.0
-8.0

-10.0
-12.0
-14.0
-16.0

Argentinian Peso

-18.0
-20.0
-22.0

Venezuelan Bolivar
-24.0

Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2012

17

OIL PRICES

JANUARY 2012
Historical Oil Prices End Year

US$ per barrel,


end period

West Texas Intermediate

US$ per barrel, average

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

31.2

32.5

43.4

61.1

60.9

2007
96.0

2008

2009

2010

2011

44.6

79.4

91.4

98.8

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Cushing Spot Price US$ per barrel
Monthly Average since December 1997

140
130
120
110
100
90
80
70
60
50

----- Consensus Forecasts


(Source: Consensus Forecasts
and Energy & Metals Consensus
Forecasts)

40
30
20
10

0
D ec -9 7 D ec -98 D ec -99 D e c -00 D ec -01 D ec -02 D ec -03 D ec -04 D ec -05 D ec -06 D ec -07 D ec -08 D ec -09 D ec -1 0 D ec -11 D ec -12 D e c -13

US$ per barrel

Cushing, Oklahoma West Texas Intermediate

150
140
130
120
110
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30

(WTI) Spot Price FOB US$ per barrel


Europe Brent Spot Price FOB US$ per barrel
Daily Rates Since January 1, 2005

Jan
'05

May
'05

Oct
'05

Feb
'06

Jul
'06

Dec
'06

Apr
'07

OIL PRICE FORECASTS

January
Survey
Mean Forecast
High
Low
Standard Deviation
No. of Forecasts

Feb
'08

Jun
'08

Nov
'08

Apr
'09

Sep
'09

Jan
'10

Jun
'10

Nov
'10

Mar
'11

Aug
'11

Jan
'12

JANUARY 2012

West Texas Intermediate, US$ per barrel


Range 1985-2012
Spot Rate (Jan. 9)

Sep
'07

10.4 - 145.3
101.3
Forecast for
End Apr.
End Jan.
2012
2013
98.4

100.5

120.0
79.0
8.4
71

122.5
72.5
10.6
66

Geopolitics and European Concerns Support Oil Prices


West Texas Intermediate (WTI) tipped above the US$100-mark at
the beginning of January. However, this did little to narrow the gap
between WTI and Brent, which remains roughly US$10 above the
US benchmark. Oil prices have risen on the back of renewed
concern over Irans uranium-enrichment program. The situation
has been further strained by Irans threats to block the straits of
Hormuz in the Persian Gulf (a key oil shipping route) if sanctions
are imposed. Downside pressures on prices have come from
ongoing worries over the Euro zone debt crisis and economic
downturn. Recent US improvement bodes well for WTI futures,
though, which may see a volatile few days following the reweighting of the S&P GSCI and DJ-UBS major commodity indices.

Source: Consensus Forecasts, January 9, 2012

18

Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2012

COUNTRY RISK INDICATORS

JANUARY 2012

The following two ratios focus on relationships between GDP, foreign currency reserves, external debt and debt service
payments. Historical data is from either country sources or the World Bank Debtor Reporting System. Forecasts for 2011,
2012 and 2013 are based on World Bank data for contractual obligations on existing debt and consensus forecasts from our
latest survey.

Long Term External Debt as a % of Nominal GDP

Argentina
Brazil
Chile
Colombia
Mexico
Peru
Venezuela

LongTerm Debt

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

(US$bn, 2010)

(%)

(%)

(%)

(%)

(%)

(%)

(%)

7 9 .7
2 5 .4
3 7 .9
2 7 .6
1 8 .7
4 0 .9
2 7 .9

4 4 .1
1 8 .4
3 2 .1
2 1 .5
1 6 .8
3 3 .0
2 4 .1

4 0 .9
1 5 .8
2 6 .4
2 0 .4
1 4 .2
2 8 .1
1 7 .4

3 7 .4
1 4 .4
2 5 .9
1 8 .5
1 4 .6
2 5 .0
1 3 .5

3 0 .1
1 3 .5
2 7 .6
1 6 .6
1 4 .4
2 2 .9
1 0 .7

3 2 .6
1 4 .5
3 2 .0
2 0 .4
1 6 .3
2 4 .9
1 1 .8

2 5 .1
1 3 .1
2 9 .7
1 9 .0
1 5 .6
1 9 .6
1 6 .8

92.8
281.5
60.5
54.9
161.1
30.2
40.1

1
External debt forecasts as a % of nominal GDP (based on existing schedule for long term debt disbursements and principal repayments). Nominal
GDP projections are based on consensus forecasts for real GDP growth, consumer price inflation and average exchange rates.

Annual Long Term Debt Service Payments as a % of Year End Foreign Currency Reserves

Argentina
Brazil
Chile
Colombia
Mexico
Peru
Venezuela
2

Debt Ratings
(Moody's/S&P)

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

20122

20132

(%)

(%)

(%)

(%)

(%)

(%)

(%)

(%)

B3/B
Baa2/BBB
Aa3/A+
Baa3/BBBBaa1/BBB
Baa3/BBB
B2/B+

26.2
71.1
73.9
69.0
69.1
20.2
32.4

18.3
29.8
68.0
41.8
40.0
33.0
20.6

16.9
28.7
69.3
33.5
34.2
16.8
17.2

28.0
19.0
71.1
37.3
31.9
13.5
20.2

29.8
16.1
48.4
35.7
25.0
15.9
62.1

27.1
12.0
34.9
27.1
17.0
5.9
33.2

27.8
10.9
31.9
43.9
14.5
6.9
25.2

24.9
10.0
19.2
32.9
15.3
5.6
21.7

Forecasts for debt service based on payments schedule for currently outstanding debt.

The following two ratios focus on relationships between external payments, nominal GDP and foreign currency reserves.
Historical data is from either country sources or the International Monetary Fund. Forecasts included in 2011, 2012 and 2013
ratios are consensus forecasts from our latest survey.

Current Account, Surplus or Deficit (-) as a % of Nominal GDP

Argentina
Brazil
Chile
Colombia
Mexico
Peru
Venezuela
3

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

20123

20133

(%)

(%)

(%)

(%)

(%)

(%)

(%)

(%)

3.6
1.2
4.9
-1.8
-0.5
3.1
14.4

2.8
0.1
4.5
-2.9
-0.9
1.4
7.7

2.1
-1.7
-1.9
-2.8
-1.5
-4.2
11.0

3.6
-1.5
1.6
-2.1
-0.7
0.2
1.9

0.8
-2.2
1.9
-3.1
-0.6
-1.5
5.1

0.3
-2.1
-0.6
-2.9
-0.9
-1.9
10.0

-0.2
-2.7
-1.8
-3.1
-1.3
-2.3
6.0

-0.4
-2.7
-1.4
-3.1
-1.4
-2.3
6.6

Based on consensus forecasts for current account balances, real GDP growth and consumer price inflation.

Months of Merchandise Imports Covered by Year End Foreign Currency Reserves

Argentina
Brazil
Chile
Colombia
Mexico
Peru
Venezuela
4

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

20124

20134

(months)

(months)

(months)

(months)

(months)

(months)

(months)

(months)

10.7
11.2
6.4
7.1
3.5
13.5
10.3

11.9
17.9
4.6
7.7
3.7
16.4
6.1

9.3
13.4
4.7
7.3
3.7
12.8
7.7

13.3
21.8
7.2
8.8
4.8
17.7
5.4

9.9
18.5
5.7
8.2
4.6
17.3
2.9

7.3
18.9
6.6
7.8
4.9
15.8
4.8

6.3
17.3
6.5
7.6
4.8
15.4
4.1

5.7
16.3
6.1
7.2
4.7
15.0
5.9

Projected on the basis of consensus forecasts for annual merchandise imports (divided by 12) and foreign currency reserves.

Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2012

19

LATIN AMERICAN CONSENSUS FORECASTS: WORLD ECONOMIC


ACTIVITY
JANUARY
2012
January
Survey

Real GDP

Consumer Prices

Current Account

% increase

% increase (Dec/Dec)

Balance, US$bn

2011

2012

2013

2011

2012

2013

2011

2012

2013

7.7

3.6

3.7

9.5

9.8

10.8

1.4

-0.8

-1.7

4.7

3.7

4.1

7.6

5.9

6.3

1.0

1.2

1.3

Argentina
Bolivia
Brazil
Chile
Colombia
Costa Rica
Dominican Republic
Ecuador
El Salvador
Guatemala
Honduras
Mexico
Nicaragua
Panama
Paraguay
Peru
Uruguay
Venezuela

6.8

5.1

5.6

4.7

2.8

2.7

-3.3

-4.3

-4.8

5.8

4.4

4.3

8.3

6.7

6.0

-0.7

-0.9

-1.0

4.0

4.1

1.7

29.0

29.4

31.2

31.5

24.4

30.2

Latin America1

4.1

3.6

4.0

7.0

6.2

6.3

-62.1

-95.1

-101.3

North America2
Western Europe3
Asia/Pacific4
Eastern Europe5

1.8

2.2

2.5

3.1

1.9

2.0

-513

-498

-503

2.9

3.3

4.3

6.5

5.3

5.1

-52.2

-66.0

-73.6

6.2

4.1

4.8

4.4

3.1

3.1

-1.4

-4.4

-3.6

5.5

4.4

4.6

3.7

3.4

3.3

-9.5

-10.5

-11.5

3.8

3.6

4.0

4.6

5.0

5.6

-2.1

-2.1

-2.1

4.4

4.8

4.9

8.2

6.2

5.6

-5.5

-4.4

-4.2

5.8

3.8

3.8

5.5

4.1

4.7

-1.7

-2.2

-1.7

1.6

1.9

2.4

5.5

3.9

3.7

-1.0

-1.0

-1.1

3.3

2.9

3.3

6.4

5.7

5.8

-2.0

-2.2

-2.8

3.4

3.1

3.9

6.0

5.4

5.9

-1.1

-1.2

-1.2

4.0

3.3

3.4

3.8

3.7

3.6

-9.9

-14.8

-17.2

4.4

2.9

3.2

7.3

7.2

7.2

-1.2

-1.0

-1.1

9.5

6.4

6.3

6.5

4.8

4.5

-4.0

-4.2

-4.4

4.2

3.9

4.5

5.9

5.4

5.6

-0.6

-0.6

-0.7

1.5

0.0

1.2

2.7

1.9

1.7

200

217

255

4.4

5.0

5.2

3.6

2.6

2.7

455

394

389

4.6

2.4

3.7

6.4

6.4

5.2

-15.3

-20.5

-46.7

Includes countries listed above. 2USA and Canada. 3Germany, France, the United Kingdom, Italy, Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland,
Greece, Ireland, the Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden and Switzerland. 4Fifteen countries taken from the latest issue
of Asia Pacific Consensus Forecasts. 5 Nineteen countries, including the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Russia and Turkey,
taken from the latest issue of Eastern Europe Consensus Forecasts. Regional totals, as well as the grand total, for GDP and inflation
are weighted averages calculated using 2010 GDP weights, converted at average 2010 exchange rates. Forecasts for North
America and Western Europe are taken from the latest monthly issue of Consensus Forecasts. Inflation figures for non-Latin American
regions shown above are annual average % changes except Russia.

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