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written permission of Consensus Economics Inc.
Survey Date
January 16, 2012
Every month, Consensus Economics surveys over 120 prominent Latin American economic
and financial forecasters for their estimates of a range of variables including future growth,
inflation, foreign trade, interest rates and exchange rates. Eighteen countries are covered and
the reference data is rushed to subscribers by express mail and e-mail.
As the rest of the world buckles under the strain of the
Euro zone debt crisis and accompanying economic
Page
uncertainty, Colombia has shown surprising resilience,
judging by latest national accounts data. In the three
Argentina .................................................... 2
months to September, real GDP growth soared by 7.7%
Brazil .............................................................. 4
from a year earlier, up from a more modest, albeit still
Chile ................................................................ 6
strong, 5.1% expansion in the second quarter and 4.7%
Mexico ............................................................ 8
in the first. The economys Q3 performance marks the
Venezuela ..................................................... 10
fastest rate of growth in four years. In q-o-q terms, a
Colombia ...................................................... 12
robust reading of 1.7% was also recorded. Factors
Peru .............................................................. 13
driving the economic expansion include robust oil output
Bolivia, Costa Rica, Dominican Republic,
and government spending, with the latter fuelled by a
Ecuador, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras,
major reconstruction drive following torrential rainfall in
Nicaragua, Panama, Paraguay, Uruguay....14-15
2010 and 2011. Reflecting booming activity in these
areas, both the mining and construction sectors saw
Foreign Exchange Forecasts .....................16-17
annual growth exceed 18.0% in Q3. For 2011 as a whole,
our panel now estimates that the economy will grow by
Oil Price Forecasts ....................................... 18
5.5% but growth looks set to moderate to 4.4% this year.
Signs of a slowdown in activity were already starting to
Country Risk Indicators. .............................. 19
emerge in the final months of 2011. For instance, retail
sales have continued to moderate in October, along with
World Economic Activity Table ................... 20
a fall in vehicle sales, while the jobless rate rose in
November.
Contents
Survey Highlights
This month, we move our forecast horizon forward so
that, in addition to our panels estimates for 2011 and
forecasts for 2012, we also include those for 2013 for all
major variable surveyed.
5.4
Chile
5.1
Colombia
4.8
4.5
4.2
3.9
Argentina
3.6
3.3
Brazil
3.0
2.7
2.4
2.1
1.8
Venezuela
ARGENTINA
JANUARY 2012
% Change,
Dec-on-Dec
Economic Forecasters
Annual Total
Gross
Domestic
Product
Final
Consumption
Gross
Fixed
Investment
Industrial
Production
(EMI)
Consumer
Nominal Average Non-financial
Prices
Wages per
Public Sector
(Buenos Aires Industrial Worker Budget Balance,
Index)
(INDEC)
(% of GDP)
Producto
Bruto
Interno
Consumo
Final
Inversin
Bruta
Fija
Produccin
Industrial
(EMI)
Balanza de
Precios al Salarios Medios
Consumidor Nominales por Presupuesto del
Obrero
Sector Pblico
(Indice de
Industrial
No Financiero, (%
Buenos Aires)
(INDEC)
de PBI)
2012
2013
2012
2013
2012
2013
2012
2013
2013
2012
6.5
5.0
5.0
4.6
4.2
4.1
4.0
4.0
4.0
3.8
3.8
3.5
3.5
3.1
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
2.9
2.9
2.5
2.5
2.0
4.4
4.5
5.0
5.0
3.5
3.1
3.7
3.0
na
2.3
na
3.6
na
1.6
6.5
na
na
3.0
na
5.0
5.3
3.0
2.5
3.6
2.0
7.3
5.9
5.9
4.1
3.8
5.3
3.9
5.0
3.5
4.0
4.1
3.8
3.6
2.6
5.1
3.1
3.2
3.0
2.5
3.6
3.9
3.3
3.7
2.5
2.8
5.5
4.8
5.7
4.3
3.7
4.0
3.6
4.0
na
1.5
na
4.0
na
-0.5
6.0
na
na
3.2
na
4.8
5.5
3.2
2.3
3.5
2.0
5.4
8.0
3.6
8.0
10.0
3.8
5.7
10.0
10.1
1.4
8.0
6.4
6.2
1.9
-2.5
6.2
4.0
2.5
8.0
0.9
5.7
4.0
3.0
3.5
6.0
1.5
8.0
8.0
9.0
9.0
2.6
5.0
8.0
na
1.2
na
7.4
na
-5.0
16.0
na
na
4.1
na
5.5
7.7
3.6
3.0
5.0
4.0
na
na
na
4.0
4.3
3.5
5.5
4.5
na
na
na
3.6
3.5
2.5
3.5
3.9
4.0
1.9
3.0
3.1
3.1
3.1
na
2.0
2.0
na
na
na
5.1
3.8
2.7
5.2
3.0
na
na
na
3.5
na
1.0
4.0
na
na
2.5
na
5.4
3.5
2.9
na
3.8
2.0
9.9
9.1
9.4
11.5
8.7
11.0
9.2
12.0
na
na
9.6
9.3
9.6
9.2
7.0
12.2
10.0
na
na
8.3
10.9
na
9.9
na
na
12.1
9.0
15.0
9.8
7.5
12.0
na
18.0
na
na
na
9.5
na
9.6
11.0
na
na
na
na
7.9
9.9
na
9.4
na
na
na
na
na
23.0
23.0
na
22.0
20.0
32.6
na
na
19.5
21.0
28.7
na
21.4
25.0
22.0
22.0
22.0
na
na
na
24.0
21.0
na
na
na
20.0
18.0
na
17.0
20.0
na
na
na
17.5
na
30.1
na
na
na
20.0
na
na
na
na
na
25.0
15.0
2012
-0.7
-0.1
na
-1.0
-0.9
-1.2
-1.2
-1.2
-2.3
-0.5
-2.5
-1.2
-1.3
-2.4
-2.0
-1.4
-1.1
-1.5
-2.0
-0.9
na
-2.0
-0.8
-1.0
-1.2
2013
EXANTE
Credit Suisse
Citigroup
Banco Credicoop
Santander Investment
BBVA Banco Frances
Abeceb.com
Bulltick
Espert & Asociados
FIEL
Fundacion Capital
Datarisk
Estudio Bein & Asoc
Orlando Ferreres & Asoc
JP Morgan Chase
ACM
Delphos
Ecolatina
M & S Consultores
HSBC
IHS Global Insight
Deutsche Bank Rsrch
BofA - Merrill Lynch
Econviews
Econometrica
Consensus (Mean)
3.6
3.7
4.0
3.7
5.2
5.5
3.4
3.5
9.8
10.8
23.1
20.3
-1.3
-1.1
3.5
4.2
6.5
2.0
1.0
6.5
1.6
1.3
3.9
4.6
7.3
2.5
1.2
6.0
-0.5
1.6
5.4
7.6
10.1
-2.5
3.1
16.0
-5.0
4.3
3.6
4.4
5.5
1.9
0.9
5.4
1.0
1.2
10.3
11.3
12.2
7.0
1.3
18.0
7.5
2.9
23.0
23.1
32.6
19.5
3.4
30.1
15.0
4.6
-1.3
-1.2
-0.1
-2.5
0.6
0.0
-3.2
0.8
Comparison Forecasts
IMF (Sep. '11)
ECLAC (Dec. '11)
4.6
4.8
11.0
11.0
US$
Billion
55
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
2012
4.2
Current
Account
Balance
'97 '99
'01
'03 '05
'07 '09
-0.4
-0.4
na
-0.6
-1.5
-1.0
-1.2
-1.5
na
na
na
-1.5
na
-3.2
-0.5
na
na
-1.6
na
0.0
na
-1.5
-1.3
-0.6
-1.5
'93 '95
2013
Historical Data
'89 '91
Average Annual
% change
'11 '13
e
e
e
e
9.2
9.1
21.2
9.8
7.7
8.4
14.6
6.2
10.9
9.5
33.7
28.3 e
0.2
-1.5 e
e
e
e
e
68.1
56.5
11.6
2.9
84.5
73.9
10.6
1.4
10.3
13.3
46.6
44.9 e
JANUARY 2012
ARGENTINA
Rate on Survey
Date: 14.3%
Annual Total
Merchandise
Merchandise Merchandise
Trade Balance
Exports
Imports
(fob-cif
(fob, US$bn) (cif, US$bn)
US$bn)
ExportaImportaciones de
ciones de
Mercancas Mercancas
(fab, US$bn) (cif, US$bn)
2012
Balanza
Comercial
(fab-cif,
US$bn)
Current
Account
Balance
(US$bn)
30-Day Peso
Certificates
of Deposit
(%)
Saldo en
Cuenta
Corriente
(US$bn)
Certificados
de Depsitos
en Pesos a 30
das (%)
2010
2011
2012
Jan Mar May July Sep Nov Jan Mar May July Sep Nov Jan
8.0
7.5
7.0
6.5
6.0
5.5
5.0
4.5
4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
End
End
Apr. 12 Jan. 13
90.3 96.9
87.4 91.0
84.3 90.4
87.0 95.5
93.1 100.6
80.2 84.0
93.0 105.1
88.0 92.0
95.0
na
83.3 90.0
88.2
na
87.6 95.5
88.4
na
88.8 91.5
83.8 91.5
87.5
na
90.0
na
84.9 89.1
82.0
na
77.4 83.7
87.3 93.9
87.7 92.5
83.2 86.9
85.7 91.7
88.8 93.2
81.3
82.7
75.9
78.0
87.6
75.2
85.5
79.0
87.7
80.4
81.5
79.7
80.8
81.2
71.0
83.3
83.5
74.9
71.0
68.6
81.3
82.0
79.9
77.2
80.8
85.6
88.6
82.3
89.0
98.0
82.5
98.3
84.0
na
85.9
na
88.5
na
84.9
84.4
na
na
80.9
na
75.7
89.7
87.3
84.7
83.7
84.8
8.9
4.7
8.5
9.0
5.5
5.0
7.5
9.0
7.2
2.9
6.7
7.9
7.6
7.6
12.8
4.2
6.5
10.0
11.0
8.8
5.9
5.7
3.4
8.5
8.0
11.3
2.4
8.1
6.5
2.6
1.5
6.8
8.0
na
4.1
na
7.0
na
6.6
7.0
na
na
8.3
na
8.0
4.2
5.2
2.2
8.0
8.4
-0.8
-0.7
1.5
1.2
0.0
-2.7
0.0
-0.5
3.1
-5.0
-2.2
0.1
-0.7
-1.7
3.3
-2.7
-1.5
-0.3
1.5
0.0
-2.6
-0.1
-4.1
-0.5
-3.7
0.8
-3.3
1.1
-0.8
-1.0
-5.2
-0.3
-1.0
na
-4.6
na
0.4
na
-0.9
-0.4
na
na
-2.2
na
-1.5
-4.3
0.8
-4.6
-1.2
-4.0
na
na
na
14.0
15.5
16.6
14.9
18.0
14.6
19.7
na
15.7
15.0
20.0
na
14.8
na
13.5
14.0
16.7
na
na
na
13.0
16.0
na
na
19.5
13.5
16.5
16.6
16.3
18.0
na
21.4
na
15.2
15.6
22.0
na
na
na
14.5
na
15.3
na
na
na
17.0
16.0
86.9
92.4
79.6
86.3
7.3
6.1
-0.8
-1.7
15.8
17.0
88.7
87.8
95.0 105.1
77.4 83.7
4.0
5.1
81.9
82.7
87.7
68.6
4.8
98.3
75.7
5.3
6.8
5.1
12.8
2.9
2.3
11.3
1.5
2.6
-1.5
-2.5
3.3
-5.0
2.1
1.1
-5.2
2.0
-4.4
-5.2
2011
2013
2012
An upbeat Q3 national accounts showing helped to
shore up 2011 forecasts for real GDP growth. However, the 2012 consensus has stalled on the back of
slowing global fundamentals and La Nia drought
conditions which are hitting current soybean and corn
crops. This also poses a threat for export and tariff
revenues, reining in the governments ability to spur
activity via public spending.
2010
2011
2012
J a n M a r M a y J u ly S e p N o v J a n M a r M a y J u ly S e p N o v J a n
14.5
14.0
2012
13.5
13.0
12.5
2011
12.0
11.5
2013
11.0
10.5
10.0
9.5
9.0
22.0
13.5
2.5
% change on
previous month
0 .8
0 .8
0 .8
0 .6
0 .6
0 .8
0 .9
0 .8
0 .8
0 .6
0 .7
0 .8
% change on
same month in
previous year
9 .7
9 .8
9 .9
9 .7
9 .5
9 .5
9 .7
9 .8
9 .7
9 .5
9 .4
9 .4
D e c e m be r 2 0 1 2
9 .8
D e c e m be r 2 0 1 3
1 0 .8
Readers should note that the December y-o-y figure for the current year
may not equate to the Dec/Dec consensus forecast shown on the main
table, since the number of survey respondents may be different, or
because of rounding.
Forecast
2.0
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
%
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
Jan 07
Jul 07
Jan 08
Jul 08
Jan 09
Jul 09
Jan 10
Jul 10
Jan 11
Jul 11
Jan 12
BRAZIL
JANUARY 2012
Average % Change on Previous Calendar Year
Gross
Domestic
Product
Household
Consumption
Gross
Fixed
Investment
Industrial
Production
(IBGE)
Produto
Interno
Bruto
Consumo
das Famlias
Formao
Bruta de
Capital
Fixo
Produo
Industrial
(IBGE)
Economic Forecasters
2012
2013
2012
2013
2012
2013
2012
2013
2012
2013
2012
Moody's Analytics
SILCON/C.R. Contador
Citigroup
Datalynk
Morgan Stanley
BofA - Merrill Lynch
Barclays Capital
MCM Consultores
Deutsche Bank
Tendencias
JP Morgan
Eaton Corporation
LCA Consultores
Banco Votorantim
Rosenberg Consultoria
Capital Economics
5.0
3.6
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.4
3.3
3.2
3.2
3.2
3.1
3.1
3.1
3.0
3.0
2.5
6.0
4.2
4.5
4.0
4.0
4.2
4.1
3.9
5.0
4.0
4.5
4.0
4.7
4.0
3.5
3.8
5.5
5.1
3.5
4.0
3.7
3.8
4.2
4.2
3.7
3.4
3.5
2.3
4.5
4.0
3.8
2.0
6.6
5.4
4.6
5.0
4.7
5.7
4.5
4.9
5.7
5.3
4.5
3.0
5.0
5.0
4.5
3.5
6.3
7.9
4.6
7.0
6.8
3.7
6.8
4.5
2.4
6.5
6.3
1.8
4.0
7.0
3.0
2.5
7.7
8.0
6.7
10.0
8.7
5.0
7.4
1.5
5.3
5.1
6.8
6.3
6.1
7.0
6.5
5.0
6.1
2.6
na
4.0
na
3.9
2.4
3.7
2.0
2.0
4.0
2.6
2.5
3.0
2.1
2.0
7.3
4.0
na
4.5
na
4.3
4.3
3.4
4.0
4.3
4.0
4.0
4.0
4.0
4.3
4.0
5.0
5.6
5.5
5.5
5.6
5.3
5.3
5.5
5.3
5.5
4.9
5.3
5.0
5.2
6.0
4.7
5.5
5.0
5.0
4.5
5.7
5.0
5.6
5.6
5.6
6.0
5.0
4.7
4.5
4.5
4.8
4.5
Consensus (Mean)
3.3
4.3
3.8
4.9
5.1
6.4
3.1
4.3
5.3
3.2
3.8
5.0
2.5
0.5
6.0
3.5
0.6
3.8
4.5
5.5
2.0
0.9
6.6
3.0
0.8
5.2
6.2
7.9
1.8
2.0
10.0
1.5
1.9
3.0
3.8
6.1
2.0
1.2
3.3
4.3
4.4
4.9
7.7
8.5
4.0
3.6
3.2
3.5
4.2
3.9
Comparison Forecasts
Corp Andina de
Fomento (Jan. '12)
IMF (Sep. '11)
OECD (Nov. '11)
ECLAC (Dec. '11)
2013
2012
2013
na
8.0
na
9.0
na
na
na
8.7
na
8.3
na
na
8.8
na
na
na
na
7.0
na
9.0
na
na
na
9.0
na
9.3
na
na
7.1
na
na
na
na
2.6
na
3.2
2.0
1.2
2.7
2.2
1.5
2.0
3.3
1.9
2.0
2.2
2.3
1.7
na
2.4
na
3.2
2.0
1.0
2.5
1.8
1.7
3.0
2.8
1.5
1.6
1.8
1.2
na
5.1
8.6
8.3
2.2
2.0
7.3
3.4
0.9
5.3
5.6
6.0
4.7
0.3
6.0
4.5
0.5
8.0
8.5
9.0
8.0
0.4
9.3
7.0
1.1
2.1
2.2
3.3
1.2
0.6
3.2
1.0
0.7
5.0
5.5
5.0
12.5
9.0
2.9
3.0
4.5
5.8
4.5
4.7
2.8
2.6
Historical Data
Current Account Balance and Foreign
Currency Reserves
US$
Billion
395
365
335
305
275
245
215
185
155
125
95
65
35
5
-25
-55
-85
Forecast
Current Account
Balance
'89 '91 '93 '95 '97 '99 '01 '03 '05 '07 '09 '11 '13
2.9 e
4.1 e
4.8 e
0.6 e
-0.3
4.4
-6.7
-7.4
7.5
6.9
21.3
10.5
4.3
5.9
6.5
7.8
9.0
9.3 e
3.4
2.6
2.4 e
153.0 201.9 252.7 e
127.7 181.6 223.9 e
25.3 20.3 28.8 e
-24.3 -47.5 -52.2 e
8.8
10.8
11.0
BRAZIL
JANUARY 2012
Rate on Survey
Date: 11.0%
Annual Total
Merchandise Merchandise Merchandise
Exports
Imports
Trade
(fob, US$bn) (fob, US$bn)
Balance
(fob-fob,
US$bn)
Current
Account
Balance
(US$bn)
Overnight
Interbank
Interest
Rate,
SELIC (%)
Saldo em
Conta
Corrente
(US$bn)
Taxa de
juros
(overnight),
SELIC (%)
%, Dec/
Dec
2010
2011
2012
Jan Mar May July Sep Nov Jan Mar May July Sep Nov Jan
6.5
2011
Exportao Importao
de
de
Mercadorias Mercadorias
(US$bn)
(US$bn)
Saldo
Comercial
(US$bn)
6.0
5.5
2012
2012
282.9
260.0
274.2
288.0
266.4
258.2
279.8
269.3
272.0
275.0
268.4
270.0
280.0
280.1
254.3
275.0
333.8
270.0
291.8
334.0
na
285.0
315.3
287.4
312.0
na
307.2
275.0
304.1
302.6
274.6
300.0
261.3
240.0
258.6
270.0
265.4
241.2
263.4
248.8
252.0
250.0
258.2
235.0
250.9
260.3
236.4
255.0
310.0
255.0
260.4
321.0
na
277.4
308.7
260.0
294.0
na
296.4
240.0
264.3
288.9
254.2
285.0
21.6
20.0
15.7
18.0
1.0
17.1
16.4
20.6
20.0
25.0
10.3
35.0
29.1
19.9
17.9
20.0
23.8
15.0
31.4
13.0
na
7.6
6.6
27.4
18.0
na
10.8
35.0
39.8
13.6
20.4
15.0
-44.5 -46.5
-68.0 -70.0
-70.8 -63.4
-65.0 -75.0
-88.0 -119.8
-70.3 -89.9
-75.1 -85.9
-65.5 -59.9
-64.0 -75.0
-60.0 -95.8
-76.2 -65.8
-53.0 -55.0
-55.2 -63.0
-71.3 -80.0
-63.4 -63.1
-65.0 -70.0
-73.6
272.7
254.6
18.1
-65.5
278.8
260.6
18.2
-66.8
288.0 334.0 270.0 321.0 35.0 39.8 -44.5 -46.5
254.3 270.0 235.0 240.0 1.0 6.6 -88.0 -119.8
9.3 20.3 10.6 24.7 7.4 10.3 10.1 17.8
End
End
Apr. 12 Jan. 13
9.5
9.8
9.5
9.5
10.0
na
10.0
9.5
9.5
9.5
na
10.5
9.5
9.5
9.5
na
8.5
8.5
9.5
9.5
10.0
na
10.0
9.5
9.5
10.0
na
10.0
9.5
9.5
9.5
na
9.7
9.5
5.0
4.5
4.0
3.5
2013
Monthly inflation was unchanged at 0.5% in December while
the annual figure finished 2011 at 6.5% (y-o-y), which was a
touch lower than Novembers 6.6% increase. The December
reading means inflation ended last year at the top end of Banco
Central do Brazils target range (4.5% +/-2%). Consumer price
rises are expected to decelerate over the coming months,
with our panellists now predicting that the December rate will
come in at 5.3%.
10.5 10.0
9.5 8.5
0.3 0.5
%
14
Forecast
13
12
-70.0
11
10.5 10.8
10
-66.6
-82.0
8
Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
2012
% change on
previous month
J u ly
A ug
Sep
Oct
N ov
Dec
Jan
Fe b
Mar
A pr
May
J une
0 .2
0 .4
0 .5
0 .4
0 .5
0 .5
0 .6
0 .6
0 .5
0 .5
0 .4
0 .2
D ec em ber 2012
D ec em ber 2013
6 .9
7 .2
7 .3
7 .0
6 .6
6 .5
6 .2
6 .0
5 .7
5 .4
5 .3
5 .4
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
5 .3
5 .1
Readers should note that the December y-o-y figure for the current year
may not equate to the Dec/Dec consensus forecast shown on the main
table, since the number of survey respondents may be different, or
because of rounding.
Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2012
Forecast
1.0
% change on
same month in
previous year
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.0
Jan 07
Jul 07
Jan 08
Jul 08
Jan 09
Jul 09
Jan 10
Jul 10
Jan 11
Jul 11
Jan 12
CHILE
JANUARY 2012
Average % Change on Previous Calendar Year
Gross
Domestic
Product
Private
Consumption
Gross
Fixed
Investment
Industrial
Production
(INE, General
Index)
Producto
Geogrfico
Bruto
Consumo
Privado
Formacin
Bruta
de Capital
Fijo
Produccin
Industrial
(INE, Indice
General)
% Change,
Dec-on-Dec
Average Annual
% change
Consumer
Prices
(INE, General
Index)
Nominal
Hourly Wages
(INE, General
Index)
Precios al Remuneraciones
Nominales por
Consumidor
Hora
(INE, Indice
(INE, Indice
General)
General)
2012
2013
2012
2013
General
Government
Budget Balance, accrual
basis
(% of GDP)
Balance del
Gobierno
General
(% de PGB)
Economic Forecasters
2012
2013
2012
2013
2012
2013
2012
2013
2012
2013
Moody's Analytics
HSBC
Banco BICE
Banco de Chile
Banchile Inversiones
Deutsche Bank
IHS Global Insight
JP Morgan Chase
C. Comercio Santiago
Libertad y Desarrollo
Universidad de Chile
Larrain Vial
Banco Security
BofA - Merrill Lynch
Gemines
5.5
4.5
4.4
4.3
4.2
4.2
4.1
4.0
4.0
4.0
4.0
3.8
3.5
3.5
3.3
6.3
4.8
5.0
5.0
4.5
3.9
4.7
4.8
5.0
5.0
5.0
4.5
5.0
4.0
4.8
7.5
6.0
3.7
5.0
4.7
6.1
4.8
5.0
4.5
4.2
4.3
5.0
4.2
5.5
5.0
5.5
5.0
na
5.5
4.5
5.8
4.1
4.0
5.7
5.0
5.2
7.0
5.5
4.1
5.3
6.2
9.7
9.1
7.5
7.5
8.2
9.2
23.0
8.0
5.7
7.0
0.0
5.5
7.4
3.0
11.6
12.0
na
8.0
4.5
7.4
7.5
15.0
10.0
7.0
7.0
10.0
7.0
7.2
7.0
5.5
3.0
2.9
3.8
1.7
3.2
2.3
4.0
3.0
3.0
4.0
-0.5
2.0
na
1.0
6.4
6.0
na
5.0
2.5
3.0
2.8
5.0
5.0
4.0
5.0
2.0
3.5
na
3.5
4.0
2.8
2.8
2.8
2.8
3.0
2.9
3.4
3.1
3.0
3.4
na
2.8
3.0
3.0
3.5
2.8
na
3.0
3.0
3.2
3.2
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
na
3.0
3.0
3.5
na
na
4.0
4.5
4.8
na
na
na
4.7
4.8
5.0
6.0
4.8
na
5.2
na
na
na
4.0
5.0
na
na
na
5.1
4.5
5.0
6.0
5.0
na
5.0
na
-0.6
-0.2
-0.5
-0.8
0.2
na
1.0
1.3
na
0.6
1.0
0.0
-0.1
-0.7
na
na
na
1.0
0.5
-0.5
na
1.0
1.5
na
0.0
2.0
0.5
0.3
-0.3
Consensus (Mean)
4.1
4.8
5.0
5.2
7.8
8.7
2.8
4.1
3.1
3.1
4.9
5.0
0.1
0.6
4.0
4.4
5.5
3.3
0.5
6.3
3.9
0.5
4.8
5.0
7.5
3.7
0.9
7.0
4.0
0.8
7.6
8.1
23.0
0.0
4.9
15.0
4.5
2.7
2.7
3.7
5.5
-0.5
1.5
6.4
2.0
1.4
3.0
3.0
4.0
2.8
0.3
3.5
2.8
0.2
4.6
4.8
6.0
4.0
0.5
6.0
4.0
0.6
0.0
0.1
1.3
-0.8
0.7
2.0
-0.5
0.8
Comparison Forecasts
Banco Central de
Chile (Dec. '11)
IMF (Sep. '11)
OECD (Nov. '11)
ECLAC (Dec. '11)
4.3
4.7
4.0
4.2
2.7
3.1
3.0
-0.4
0.8
US$
Billion
45
5.8
4.5
4.7
6.4
7.0
7.7
8.8
Historical Data
2008
Forecast
40
35
30
25
15
Current
Account
Balance
10
5
0
-5
'89
'91
'93
'95
'97
'99
'01
'03
'05
'07
'09
'11
'13
2009
3.7
-1 . 7
Gross Domestic Product*
4
.
5
0.9
Private Consumption*
1 9 . 4 -1 5 . 9
Gross Fixed Investment*
0.2
-6 . 7
Industrial Production, INE
Consumer Prices, INE,
7.1
-1 . 4
General Index (Dec/Dec, %)
Nominal Hourly Wages,
8.5
6.4
INE, General Index*
General Government Budget Bal.
Annual Total
2010 2011
5.2
6.2 e
10.4
8.3 e
18.8 15.5 e
0.5
5.3 e
3.0
4.4
3.6
5.9 e
5.2
66.3
57.7
8.5
-3 . 3
-4 . 5
54.0
39.9
14.1
2.6
-0 . 4
71.0
55.2
15.9
3.8
1.6
81.1
69.2
11.9
-1 . 4
8.3
0.5
3.3
5.3
22.8
23.8
26.3
e
e
e
e
e
38.1 e
CHILE
JANUARY 2012
Rate on Survey
Date: 5.0%
Annual Total
Merchandise Merchandise Merchandise
Exports
Trade
Imports
(fob, US$bn) (fob, US$bn)
Balance
(fob-fob,
US$bn)
Current
Account
Balance
(US$bn)
Central
Bank
Monetary
Policy
Rate (%)
ExportaImportaciones de
ciones de
Bienes
Bienes
(fab, US$ bn) (fab, US$bn)
Saldo en
Cuenta
Corriente
(US$bn)
Tasa de
Interes de
Politica
Monetaria
(%)
2012 2013
End
End
Apr. 12 Jan. 13
%, Dec/
Dec
2010
2011
2012
Jan Mar May July Sep Nov Jan Mar May July Sep Nov Jan
4.5
2011
2012
Balanza
Comercial
(fab-fab,
US$bn)
78.0
81.5
83.0
80.0
78.3
78.7
83.6
77.0
75.8
79.0
83.0
84.5
76.1
78.1
80.0
88.9
86.4
na
88.0
75.2
84.0
91.7
84.8
89.4
na
90.0
94.5
81.0
84.0
84.0
66.6
71.1
75.0
70.0
74.4
72.8
74.6
69.8
72.6
73.0
74.0
72.0
74.0
69.2
73.0
76.4
74.7
na
75.0
69.3
74.0
80.0
79.5
81.7
na
86.0
80.0
80.0
75.7
79.0
11.4
10.4
8.0
10.0
3.9
5.9
9.0
7.2
3.2
6.0
9.0
12.5
2.0
8.9
7.0
79.8
86.3
72.1
77.8
7.6
94.5
75.2
5.0
71.2
71.2
75.0
66.6
2.4
80.2
82.5
84.5
75.8
2.8
78.8
4.5
4.5
4.5
4.5
4.8
4.3
5.0
na
4.8
4.8
4.8
4.5
4.5
na
4.8
5.5
4.5
4.0
4.5
4.3
4.3
5.0
na
4.0
5.0
4.5
4.0
3.5
na
4.0
-3.6
4.6
4.4
9.0
-4.3
11.3
-2.1
86.0 12.5 14.5
2.8 4.0
69.3 2.0 1.0 -10.0 -16.1
4.2 3.0 4.1
3.5 5.2
5.0
4.3
0.2
5.5
3.5
0.5
74.0
12.5
2.8 3.2
11.8 -2.7 -2.0
na -1.0
na
13.0 -1.5 0.0
5.9 -8.0 -6.6
10.0 -6.1 -4.6
11.8 -5.4 4.0
5.3 -10.0 -16.1
7.7
na
na
na -7.0
na
4.0 -2.0 -3.0
14.5 -3.0 -2.5
1.0 -8.8 -4.5
8.3 -3.8 -4.5
5.0 -5.0 -7.0
8.5
4.8
-4.4
-7.7
-3.6
4.0
3.5
2013
2012
3.0
Banco Central de Chile kick-started its monetary easing cycle
at the start of this year with a surprise quarter-percentage-point
2.5 cut in the monetary policy rate to 5.0% on January 12. The move
came in the wake of an unexpectedly high inflation reading for
December, which saw the annual rate finish 2011 at 4.4%. This
2.0 figure well exceeds the upper limit of the central banks target of
3.0% (+/-1.0%). The economy is expected to lose momentum
this year and inflation is projected to return to target, though.
% probability of:
INCREASE
NO CHANGE
DECREASE
0.0
+
46.9
+
53.1
= 100%
Most likely rate change mentioned was: -0.25%
%
9.0
8.0
7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
Jan
07
-4.6
Jul
07
Jan
08
Jul
08
Jan
09
Jul
09
Jan
10
Jul
10
Jan
11
Jul
11
Forecast
Jan
12
Jul
12
Jan
13
% change on
previous month
2 0 1 1 J uly
A ug
Sep
Oct
N ov
D ec
2012 Jan
Fe b
Mar
A pr
May
J une
0 .1
0 .2
0 .5
0 .5
0 .3
0 .6
0 .2
0 .2
0 .5
0 .3
0 .2
0 .2
% change on
same month in
previous year
2 .9
3 .2
3 .3
3 .7
3 .9
4 .4
4 .3
4 .2
4 .0
3 .9
3 .8
3 .8
1.6
1.4
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
-0.2
-0.4
-0.6
-0.8
-1.0
D e c e m be r 2 0 1 2
D e c e m be r 2 0 1 3
3 .1
3 .1
Readers should note that the December y-o-y figure for the current year
may not equate to the Dec/Dec consensus forecast shown on the main
table, since the number of survey respondents may be different, or
because of rounding.
Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2012
-1.2
-1.4
Jan 07
Jul 07
Jan 08
Jul 08
Jan 09
Jul 09
Jan 10
Jul 10
Jan 11
Jul 11
Jan 12
MEXICO
JANUARY 2012
% Change,
Dec-on-Dec
Private
Consumption
Gross
Fixed
Investment
Producto
Interno
Bruto
Consumo
Privado
Inversin
Fija
Bruta
Consumer
Public Sector
Average
Prices
Budget
Industrial Wages
(Banco de
Balance, incl.
(Banco de
Mexico Index) Mexico Index) privatization
(% of GDP)
Salarios
en
la
Balance
Precios al
Produccin
Industria
Economico del
Consumidor
Manufacturera
Manufacturera Sector Pblico,
(Banco de
(INEGI)
(Banco de
incl. PrivatizacMxico)
Mxico)
iones (% de PIB)
2012 2013
2012
2013
2012 2013
2012
2013
Manufacturing
Production
(INEGI)
Economic Forecasters
2012
2013
2012
2013
Moody's Analytics
CEESP
Bulltick
Grupo Bursametrica
HSBC
Deutsche Bank Rsrch
JP Morgan Chase Mex
Morgan Stanley
Santander Serfin Mexico
Consultores Econ
CAIE-ITAM
Invex Grupo Financiero
Banamex
Citigroup
BofA - Merrill Lynch
Scotiabank
American Chamber Mex
ING Bank
4.5
4.0
3.8
3.5
3.4
3.3
3.3
3.2
3.2
3.2
3.1
3.1
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
2.9
2.6
3.5
4.2
3.5
3.2
3.0
3.5
3.5
3.3
3.5
2.9
4.0
na
3.4
3.4
3.3
3.7
na
2.3
4.8
3.8
4.0
3.6
4.9
3.0
4.2
3.6
4.2
3.0
3.2
5.2
3.4
3.3
3.3
3.4
2.5
2.9
3.3
4.4
3.7
3.5
2.7
3.3
na
3.7
4.4
2.8
na
na
3.7
3.6
3.4
3.9
na
2.9
7.8
7.5
5.0
5.5
6.1
4.0
3.1
5.9
5.0
4.9
3.3
4.0
6.4
6.4
5.0
3.8
3.6
4.0
5.5
9.7
4.5
5.2
3.0
5.0
3.0
5.6
6.4
4.2
na
na
7.7
6.4
7.0
6.1
na
3.3
4.8
5.1
3.0
3.5
4.2
4.0
3.8
3.6
3.7
3.9
1.8
1.7
3.2
na
4.2
3.3
3.9
2.3
3.2
5.7
3.0
3.8
3.8
5.0
3.7
4.2
5.0
3.2
na
na
3.6
na
na
4.0
na
2.3
4.5
3.3
3.5
3.5
3.9
3.4
na
3.6
3.7
3.6
3.4
3.7
3.8
3.6
3.7
4.1
3.8
3.7
4.0
3.2
3.3
3.5
3.4
3.4
na
3.4
3.6
4.0
na
3.7
3.9
3.9
3.5
4.1
na
3.8
na
4.3
na
3.7
4.3
na
na
na
4.5
4.2
na
3.5
3.2
na
na
4.2
4.5
4.2
na
4.6
na
3.7
4.1
na
na
na
4.5
4.1
na
na
3.0
na
na
4.3
na
4.2
-2.2
-2.5
-2.4
-2.9
-2.4
-2.3
-2.4
-2.4
-2.4
-3.0
-2.5
-2.5
-2.2
-2.2
-2.0
-2.8
-2.7
-2.4
-2.0
-1.9
-2.4
-2.4
-2.0
-2.0
-2.4
-2.3
-2.0
-3.0
na
-2.0
-2.0
-2.0
-1.8
-2.8
na
-1.9
Consensus (Mean)
3.3
3.4
3.7
3.5
5.1
5.5
3.5
3.9
3.7
3.6
4.1
4.1
-2.5
-2.2
3.1
3.3
4.5
2.6
0.4
4.2
2.3
0.4
3.5
3.8
5.2
2.5
0.7
4.4
2.7
0.5
4.7
4.9
7.8
3.1
1.4
9.7
3.0
1.8
3.5
3.6
5.1
1.7
0.9
5.7
2.3
0.9
3.7
3.6
4.5
3.3
0.3
4.1
3.2
0.3
4.2
4.2
4.5
3.2
0.4
4.6
3.0
0.5
-2.5
-2.4
-2.0
-3.0
0.3
-1.8
-3.0
0.3
Comparison Forecasts
IMF (Sep. '11)
OECD (Nov. '11)
ECLAC (Dec. '11)
3.6
3.3
3.3
3.7
3.6
3.0
3.0
3.1
3.5
8.1
7.4
US$
Billion
180
2012
140
120
Historical Data
2008 2009 2010 2011
Forecast
100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
Current
Account
Balance
-40
-60
'89
2013
160
'91
'93
'95
'97
'99
'01
'03
'05
'07
'09
'11
'13
e
e
e
e
e
e
e
e
e
e
MEXICO
JANUARY 2012
Rate on Survey
Date: 4.3%
Annual Total
Merchandise Merchandise
Exports
Imports
(fob, US$bn) (fob, US$bn)
Merchandise
Trade
Balance
(fob-fob,
US$bn)
Current
Account
Balance
(US$bn)
28-Day
CETES
Rate (%)
4.6
2011
4.4
ExportaTasa de
Saldo en
Balanza
Importaciones de
Inters
Cuenta
ciones de Comercial
Mercancas Mercancas (fab-fab,
CETES
Corriente
(fab, US$ (fab, US$bn) US$bn)
(US$bn) a 28 das (%)
bn)
End
End
2012 2013 2012 2013 2012 2013 2012 2013 Apr.
12 Jan. 13
362.4
405.4
365.0
276.3
408.9
362.0
372.2
365.3
372.5
391.3
363.4
397.1
365.6
359.4
379.2
373.8
369.5
377.0
379.8
470.3
390.0
280.0
452.1
395.0
397.1
399.3
401.0
432.9
na
na
404.5
400.9
401.8
394.3
na
417.5
373.9
410.7
375.0
285.0
416.6
369.0
381.6
378.3
379.0
398.3
366.5
400.7
378.5
380.5
380.6
380.4
382.5
386.0
390.0
476.5
395.0
290.6
462.0
404.0
411.5
417.3
409.5
441.0
na
na
418.8
421.1
402.9
407.6
na
427.5
-11.5
-5.3
-10.0
-8.7
-7.7
-7.0
-9.4
-13.0
-6.5
-7.0
-2.9
-3.6
-12.9
-21.2
-1.4
-6.6
-13.0
-9.0
-10.2
-6.2
-5.0
-10.5
-9.9
-9.0
-14.4
-18.0
-8.5
-8.0
na
na
-14.4
-20.2
-1.2
-13.3
na
-10.0
-14.1
-6.4
-17.0
-16.1
-10.6
-11.0
-13.0
-15.5
-14.2
-12.0
-12.4
-8.3
-24.7
-32.9
-13.0
-16.5
-14.2
-13.8
2010
2011
2012
Jan Mar May July Sep Nov Jan Mar May July Sep Nov Jan
-12.2
-9.3
-17.0
-14.9
-12.4
-14.0
-20.4
-19.0
-15.9
-13.0
na
na
-27.8
-33.7
-8.3
-24.7
na
-15.8
4.6
4.5
4.3
4.5
4.3
4.5
4.3
4.3
4.0
4.3
4.3
4.2
4.5
4.5
na
4.5
4.4
4.4
6.0
5.2
4.8
4.9
4.4
4.5
4.4
4.0
4.0
4.0
4.5
na
4.5
4.5
na
4.5
4.3
4.4
4.4
4.5
4.2
4.0
2012
3.8
3.6
2013
3.4
3.2
3.0
2.8
%, Dec/
Dec
2010
2011
2012
Jan Mar May July Sep Nov Jan Mar May July Sep Nov Jan
4.0
2011
3.9
3.8
2012
3.7
-9.6
-16.1
368.9
378.5
374.4
384.7
-10.4
-15.9
408.9 470.3 416.6 476.5 -1.4 -1.2 -6.4 -8.3
276.3 280.0 285.0 290.6 -21.2 -20.2 -32.9 -33.7
27.9 41.4 27.1 41.0 4.6 4.9 6.0 7.0
3.6
4.6
4.0
0.1
6.0
4.0
0.5
3.5
3.4
3.3
3.2
-10.9 -11.6
2013
2012
% change on
previous month
J u ly
A ug
Sep
Oct
N ov
Dec
Jan
Fe b
M ar
A pr
M ay
J une
0 .5
0 .2
0 .2
0 .7
1 .1
0 .8
0 .5
0 .3
0 .3
0 .0
-0 .5
0 .1
% change on
same month in
previous year
3 .5
3 .4
3 .1
3 .2
3 .5
3 .8
3 .8
3 .8
4 .0
4 .0
4 .3
4 .4
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
-0.2
-0.4
-0.6
D e c e m be r 2 0 1 2
D e c e m be r 2 0 1 3
3 .7
3 .6
Readers should note that the December y-o-y figure for the current year
may not equate to the Dec/Dec consensus forecast shown on the main
table, since the number of survey respondents may be different, or
because of rounding.
Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2012
-0.8
Jan 07 Jul 07
Jul 09 Jan 10
Jan 12
VENEZUELA
JANUARY 2012
% Change, Average Annual
Annual Total
Dec-on-Dec
% change
Central
Consumer
Nominal
Manufacturing
Government
Prices
Wages
Production
Budget Balance
(Caracas
(OCEI, all
(% of GDP)
Metropolitan
employees)
Area)
Precios al
Salarios
Balance del
Produccin
Consumidor
Nominales
Gobierno
Manufacturera
(Area
(OCEI,
Central
Metropolitana
Sueldo)
(% de PIB)
de Caracas)
Private
Consumption
Gross
Fixed
Investment
Producto
Interno
Bruto
Consumo
Privado
Inversin
Bruta
Fija
Economic Forecasters
2012
2013
2012
2013
2012
2013
2012
2013
2012
2013
2012
2013
2012
2013
5.0
4.9
4.8
4.7
4.5
4.1
4.0
4.0
4.0
4.0
3.8
3.5
3.0
2.5
-3.9
na
-1.4
na
na
3.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
1.9
4.0
2.1
3.4
3.3
6.4
5.5
5.5
4.1
7.6
5.1
10.0
6.0
3.5
7.5
na
5.8
7.2
4.0
-5.5
na
0.4
na
na
5.0
3.0
1.5
3.0
1.8
na
4.2
0.8
3.8
3.5
5.0
1.6
4.9
14.7
8.5
4.0
5.0
1.0
10.1
na
3.0
-4.0
8.4
-7.9
na
0.8
na
na
6.0
1.5
-1.0
1.0
6.5
na
3.0
2.2
10.9
na
na
5.3
3.2
3.8
5.0
5.0
na
2.4
5.8
na
2.3
na
2.0
na
na
1.2
na
na
5.0
0.0
na
3.2
1.7
na
1.4
na
2.8
35.0
36.5
29.5
31.3
25.3
31.2
30.0
28.0
27.0
30.4
27.2
28.7
27.0
24.7
54.0
na
30.9
na
na
32.0
35.0
28.0
25.0
32.1
29.1
24.3
29.0
24.0
na
na
35.0
30.5
29.5
24.8
na
30.0
na
na
na
na
na
na
na
na
25.0
na
na
21.0
na
25.0
na
na
na
na
na
na
-6.5
-4.9
-6.7
-5.2
-7.2
na
-6.0
-5.0
-3.7
na
-1.9
na
-5.2
na
1.0
na
-5.1
na
na
na
-2.5
-2.0
-3.2
na
-2.0
na
-3.8
na
Consensus (Mean)
4.1
1.7
6.0
1.8
5.1
2.3
3.9
2.2
29.4
31.2
29.9
23.7
-5.2
-2.5
3.9
3.3
5.0
2.5
0.7
4.0
-3.9
2.4
5.6
4.6
10.0
3.5
1.8
5.0
-5.5
3.0
4.5
4.5
14.7
-4.0
4.7
10.9
-7.9
5.0
3.6
3.3
5.8
2.0
1.4
5.0
0.0
1.6
29.3
28.2
36.5
24.7
3.4
54.0
24.0
8.3
28.6
25.8
35.0
24.8
3.6
25.0
21.0
2.3
-4.9
-4.8
-1.9
-7.2
1.6
1.0
-5.1
1.9
Comparison Forecasts
Corp Andina de
Fomento (Jan. '12)
IMF (Sep. '11)
ECLAC (Dec. '11)
4.1
3.6
3.0
4.7
-3.0
4.3
-4.5
4.0
-2.7
27.5
24.0
34.5
23.7
32.5
25.0
-8.0
-4.5
US$
Billion
40
35
30
-2.5
2.1
Historical Data
Forecast
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
'89 '91
10
'93 '95
'97 '99
'01
Current
Account
Balance
'03 '05 '07 '09
'11 '13
5 .3
6 .3
2 .4
1 .4
- 3 .2
- 2 .9
- 8 .3
- 6 .4
- 1 .5
- 1 .9
- 6 .3
- 3 .4
4 .0
4 .1
1 .0
3 .5
3 1 .9
2 6 .9
2 7 .4
2 9 .0
2 3 .7
2 2 .2
2 6 .0
3 5 .1 e
- 4 .9 e - 4 .3 e
- 1 .2
- 5 .1
9 5 .0
5 1 .0
4 4 .1
3 4 .3
5 7 .6
3 9 .6
1 8 .0
6 .0
6 5 .7
3 8 .6
2 7 .1
1 2 .1
9 3 .9
4 5 .6
4 8 .3
3 1 .5
1 7 .3
1 5 .4
1 4 .6
1 4 .5
3 2 .6
1 7 .7
9 .2
1 8 .3 e
VENEZUELA
JANUARY 2012
Annual Total
Rate on Survey
Date: 14.5%
Current
Account
Balance
(US$bn)
30-Day
Deposit
Rate (%)
ImportaExportaciones de
ciones de
Mercancas Mercancas
(fab, US$) (fab, US$bn)
Saldo en
Cuenta
Corriente
(US$bn)
Tasa de
Inters de
Depsitos a
30 das (%)
Balanza
Comercial
(fab-fab,
US$bn)
2012
2012
2013
2012 2013
End
End
Apr. 12 Jan. 13
99.6
97.3
99.2
99.4
93.6
100.0
91.7
90.0
85.0
97.0
85.1
86.2
86.3
88.6
111.2
na
105.0
na
na
105.0
106.2
87.0
85.0
98.4
85.0
90.6
99.2
90.0
49.7
43.1
51.1
47.7
39.6
48.0
45.5
36.0
27.0
41.4
39.0
33.2
34.0
38.3
66.0
na
64.5
na
na
57.0
61.0
37.0
30.0
41.9
39.0
33.9
45.3
35.3
31.2
22.3
34.4
28.2
22.6
38.0
26.8
22.0
13.0
21.2
25.2
14.5
21.4
20.6
na
na
12.0
14.0
14.5
14.6
na
15.0
15.0
15.0
14.3
na
na
na
92.8
49.8
54.2
48.1
51.8
54.1
52.0
46.2
54.0
58.0
55.6
46.1
52.9
52.3
50.3
45.2
na
40.5
na
na
48.0
45.2
50.0
55.0
56.4
46.0
56.7
53.9
54.6
96.6
51.8
24.4
89.8
88.4
100.0 111.2
85.0 85.0
5.9
9.5
50.9
48.7
58.0
46.1
3.4
38.8
39.7
56.7 51.1 66.0
40.5 27.0 30.0
5.5
7.0 13.2
23.2
24.0
38.0
13.0
7.0
49.2
na
49.7
na
na
46.0
41.6
22.0
14.0
19.6
28.5
13.6
32.7
15.5
30.2
14.3
5.1
4.5
3.9
3.3
2.7
na
na
15.6
na
na
na
na
15.0
17.0
14.0
14.0
na
na
na
2.1
2013
0.9
0.3
%, Dec/
Dec
2010
2011
2012
Jan Mar May July Sep Nov Jan Mar May July Sep Nov Jan
35.0
34.0
15.1
32.0
15.0
12.0
1.0
2011
1.5
33.0
49.7
13.6
14.4
2012
17.0
14.0
1.3
31.0
2013
30.0
2011
29.0
28.0
90.5
85.0
55.0
15.5
18.0
2012
20.0
15.0
27.0
26.0
2012
% change on
previous month
J u ly
A ug
Sep
Oct
N ov
D ec
Jan
Fe b
Mar
A pr
May
J u ne
2 .5
1 .7
1 .5
2 .2
2 .2
1 .8
1 .8
1 .9
2 .0
2 .2
2 .5
2 .2
% change on
same month in
previous year
2 6 .1
2 6 .5
2 6 .7
2 7 .7
2 8 .9
2 9 .0
2 6 .8
2 6 .4
2 7 .0
2 8 .1
2 7 .6
2 7 .7
Forecast
6.0
5.6
5.2
4.8
4.4
4.0
3.6
3.2
2.8
2.4
2.0
1.6
1.2
0.8
0.4
D e c e m be r 2 0 1 2
D e c e m be r 2 0 1 3
2 9 .4
3 1 .2
Readers should note that the December y-o-y figure for the current year
may not equate to the Dec/Dec consensus forecast shown on the main
table, since the number of survey respondents may be different, or
because of rounding.
Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2012
0.0
-0.4
-0.8
Jan 07
Jul 07
Jan 08
Jul 08
Jan 09
Jul 09
Jan 10
Jul 10
Jan 11
Jul 11
Jan 12
COLOMBIA
JANUARY 2012
Average % Change on Previous Year
Final
Gross
Domestic Consumption
Product
Gross
Fixed
Investment
Manufacturing
Production (ex.
coffee)
% Change,
Dec-on-Dec
Annual Total
End Year
Foreign
Currency
Reserves
(IMF,
US$bn)
Producto Consumo Inversin Produccin Precios al Exporta- Importa- Balanza Saldo en Reservas
Interno
Final
Bruta
Manufac- Consumidor ciones de ciones de Comercial Cuenta de Divisas
Bruto
Fija
turera
Mercancas Mercancas (US$bn) Corriente Extranjeras
(fab,US$bn) (fab,US$bn)
(US$bn) (FMI,US$bn)
Economic Forecasters 2012 2013 2012 2013 2012 2013 2012 2013 2012 2013 2012 2013 2012 2013 20122013 2012 2013 2012 2013
Bulltick
5.0
5.0
5.2 5.0
8.0 10.0
4.0 4.0
3.5
Deutsche Bank
5.0
5.0
7.0 7.0
3.4
3.2 63.8 75.0 63.6 76.0 0.2 -1.0 -8.0 -8.5 40.0 44.0
Banco de Bogota
4.9
4.3
3.9 3.4
3.6
Citigroup
4.8
5.2
5.3 5.6
4.2 3.3
na
4.0
CESLA (Klein-UAM)
4.8
4.6
4.5 4.3
7.5 7.3
4.1 4.4
3.6
ANIF
4.5
4.8
3.8 4.0
3.6
4.4
4.6
4.9 4.7
9.6 10.2
3.5 4.0
3.5
HSBC
4.3
4.5
3.6 4.0
8.9 9.9
5.5 6.1
2.7
3.0 56.4 63.1 58.4 63.7 -2.1 -0.6 -13.2 -13.6 35.1 33.5
4.1
4.0
na
na
3.3
Credit Suisse
4.0
4.5
4.2 4.5
7.7 8.2
na
na
3.0
JP Morgan Chase
4.0
5.0
4.2 5.2
6.0 5.0
2.5 6.0
3.0
Capital Economics
3.0
4.0
3.0 4.0
7.5 10.0
3.0 4.0
3.0
Consensus (Mean)
4.4
4.6
4.5 4.6
8.7 8.8
4.1 4.8
3.4
4.5
4.5
8.3
4.1
3.5
57.0
55.1
1.8
-8.5
34.3
3 Months Ago
4.6
4.8
7.7
4.4
3.3
53.7
52.6
1.1
-10.0
34.7
High
5.0
5.2
7.0 7.0
4.0
Low
3.0
4.0
3.0 4.0
4.2 3.3
2.5 3.4
2.7
2.9 45.0 44.0 42.9 44.0 -2.1 -2.9 -13.5 -15.7 30.8 32.0
Standard Deviation
0.6
0.4
0.7 0.5
2.3 2.8
1.4 1.3
0.4
0.4
5.2
5.0
4.5 4.5
3.5
4.5
4.5
3.1
3.0
4.5
na
6.6 10.3
na
na
2.1
2.5
2.4
3.6
Comparison Forecasts
Corp Andina de
Fomento (Jan. '12)
2010
2011
2012
Jan Mar May July Sep Nov Jan Mar May July Sep Nov Jan
5.6
2012
2013
4.4
2011
3.2
2.8
12
2008
4.8
3.6
-8.4 -7.5
Historical Data
5.2
4.0
2009
1.5
1.4
-0.8
-3.9
2010
4.3
5.0
8.3
4.5
2011
5.5 e
5.9 e
13.8 e
4.6 e
2.0
34.0
31.5
2.5
-5.0
3.2
40.8
38.6
2.1
-8.9
3.7
53.8 e
50.7 e
3.1 e
-9.5 e
23.2
26.3
32.9 e
PERU
JANUARY 2012
Average % Change on Previous Year
Gross
Private
Domestic
ConProduct sumption
Gross
Fixed
Investment
% Change,
Dec-on-Dec
Annual Total
End Year
Current
Account
Balance
(US$bn)
Foreign
Currency
Reserves
(IMF,
US$bn)
Producto Consumo Inversin Produccin Precios al Exporta- Importa- Balanza Saldo en Reservas
Manufac- Consumidor ciones de ciones de Comercial Cuenta de Divisas
Bruta
Privado
Interno
turera
Fija
Bruto
(INEI, Area Mercancas Mercancas (US$bn) Corriente Extranjeras
(fab,
(FMI,
(fab,
Metropolitana
(US$bn)
US$bn)
US$bn)
US$bn)
de Lima)
Economic Forecasters 2012 2013 2012 2013 2012 2013 2012 2013 2012 2013 2012 2013 2012 2013 2012 2013 2012 2013 2012 2013
5.5
5.5
5.5
5.4
5.3
5.3
5.2
5.2
5.1
5.0
5.0
4.8
4.5
4.5
4.0
6.0
5.6
6.5
5.5
na
5.6
2.9
5.3
5.9
5.5
6.0
5.7
7.0
na
5.0
5.7
5.4
4.5
5.5
5.3
5.9
6.9
4.1
5.4
5.1
5.6
5.2
4.8
4.8
4.0
5.2
4.5
na
6.3
3.6
na
na
5.0
na
na
3.5
6.0
5.0
3.6
4.0
6.9
5.6
na
6.0
na
na
na
5.0
na
na
6.0
6.8
7.5
na
5.0
2.5
3.0
2.8
3.4
3.0
3.0
3.0
2.9
2.8
2.8
2.5
2.5
2.8
2.5
2.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.0
na
1.8
3.5
2.8
3.0
2.0
2.5
2.6
3.0
na
3.8
43.2
43.0
37.3
49.0
na
43.4
48.2
36.0
42.9
44.1
42.7
46.0
56.9
na
40.0
7.6
8.0
3.3
3.5
7.5
7.0
6.6
7.8
8.3
8.1
7.1
5.1
6.5
4.2
6.0
6.9
9.0
2.4
2.1
na
6.4
6.3
8.0
8.7
6.7
8.8
4.6
8.2
na
6.0
Consensus (Mean)
5.1
5.6
5.2
5.5
8.8
4.7 6.1
2.8
6.4
5.2
5.3
5.5
4.0
0.4
7.0
2.9
1.0
5.2
4.9
6.9
4.0
0.7
8.8
9.1
6.5 11.1 13.4
4.5 5.0 4.3
0.6 1.6 2.3
4.7
5.6
6.3 7.5
3.5 5.0
1.0 0.9
2.7
2.6
3.4
2.5
0.3
46.0
39.9
46.0
39.7
3.8 51.5 65.1 45.0 56.9
1.8 39.3 39.7 35.2 36.0
0.6 2.9 5.9 2.9 5.4
6.1
6.3
8.3
3.3
1.7
-4.4
51.4
-4.2
53.0
9.0 -2.3 -2.8 56.7 63.2
2.1 -6.7 -7.8 48.0 50.0
2.3 1.4 1.5 2.4 3.9
5.7
5.7
5.1
5.0 5.0
2.7
5.1
5.6
5.0
6.0
2.5
2.0
Comparison Forecasts
Corp Andina de
Fomento (Jan. '12)
IMF (Sep. '11)
ECLAC (Dec. '11)
8.2
%, Dec/
Dec
2010
2011
2012
Jan Mar May July Sep Nov Jan Mar May July Sep Nov Jan
46.9
47.2
39.3
48.5
45.5
47.4
50.4
43.0
48.2
48.2
46.0
45.6
51.5
46.0
44.5
50.1
52.0
39.7
51.1
na
49.8
54.5
44.0
51.6
50.8
51.5
50.7
65.1
na
46.0
39.3
39.1
36.0
45.0
38.0
40.4
43.8
35.2
40.0
40.1
38.9
40.5
45.0
41.8
38.5
-4.8
-3.5
-6.6
-3.0
-3.2
-2.3
-4.3
-3.4
-2.6
-4.1
-4.7
-6.7
-6.5
-4.6
-5.0
-3.9
-4.2
-7.2
-3.5
na
-2.8
-5.0
-3.5
-3.9
-5.4
-4.1
-7.8
-5.6
na
-5.0
54.6
51.5
53.1
51.0
51.5
50.1
48.0
49.0
56.7
na
52.5
49.2
52.0
49.3
na
57.1
56.0
53.9
53.0
na
51.2
52.0
50.0
63.2
na
57.8
53.2
59.0
na
na
-5.0 -5.7
5.0
Historical Data
2011
3.4
3.2
3.0
2.8
2.6
2.4
Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2012
2012
2013
2008
9.8
8.7
27.1
9.1
2009
0.9
2.4
-9.2
-7.2
2010
8.8
6.0
23.2
13.6
2011
6.8
6.2
8.6
6.1
e
e
e
e
6.7
31.0
28.4
2.6
-5.3
0.2
27.0
21.0
6.0
0.2
2.1
35.6
28.8
6.7
-2.3
4.7
44.6
36.9
7.7
-3.3
e
e
e
e
30.3
31.0
41.7
* average % change on previous year 1 in US$, billions
e = consensus estimate based on latest survey
48.5 e
13
ADDITIONAL COUNTRIES
JANUARY 2012
Forecasts for a number of additional countries, shown below and opposite, were provided by the following leading economic
forecasters:
Citigroup
Economist Intelligence Unit
JP Morgan
Copades/CEFSA
HSBC
Deutsche Bank
IHS Global Insight
Oxford Economics
BOLIVIA
Economy
Nominal GDP - US$17.2bn (2009)
Gross Domestic Product (annual average % change)
Consumer Prices (December-on-December % change)
Current Account (US Dollars, bn)
COSTA RICA
Historical Data
2008
6.1
11.9
2.0
Economy
Nominal GDP - US$29.3bn (2009)
Gross Domestic Product (annual average % change)
Consumer Prices (December-on-December % change)
Current Account (US Dollars, bn)
ECUADOR
2008
2.7
13.9
-2.8
EL SALVADOR
14
2008
5.3
4.5
-4.5
2009
-1.3
4.1
-0.6
2010
4.2
5.8
-1.3
2009
3.5
5.8
-2.3
2010
7.8
6.2
-4.4
2008
7.2
8.8
1.4
2009
0.4
4.3
-0.2
2010
3.6
3.3
-1.9
2011
3.8 e
4.6 e
-2.1 e
2009
-3.1
0.1
-0.3
2010
1.4
2.1
-0.5
2013
4.1
6.3
1.3
2012
3.6
5.0
-2.1
2013
4.0
5.6
-2.1
Consensus Forecasts
2011
4.4 e
8.2 e
-5.5 e
2012
4.8
6.2
-4.4
2013
4.9
5.6
-4.2
Consensus Forecasts
2011
5.8 e
5.5 e
-1.7 e
Historical Data
2008
1.3
5.5
-1.5
2012
3.7
5.9
1.2
Consensus Forecasts
Historical Data
Economy
Nominal GDP - US$21.1bn (2009)
Gross Domestic Product (annual average % change)
Consumer Prices (December-on-December % change)
Current Account (US Dollars, bn)
2011
4.7 e
7.6 e
1.0 e
Historical Data
Economy
Nominal GDP - US$52.0bn (2009)
Gross Domestic Product (annual average % change)
Consumer Prices (December-on-December % change)
Current Account (US Dollars, bn)
2010
4.1
7.2
0.9
Historical Data
2009
3.4
0.3
0.8
Consensus Forecasts
2012
3.8
4.1
-2.2
2013
3.8
4.7
-1.7
Consensus Forecasts
2011
1.6 e
5.5 e
-1.0 e
2012
1.9
3.9
-1.0
2013
2.4
3.7
-1.1
ADDITIONAL COUNTRIES
JANUARY 2012
GUATEMALA
Economy
Nominal GDP - US$37.3bn (2009)
Gross Domestic Product (annual average % change)
Consumer Prices (December-on-December % change)
Current Account (US Dollars, bn)
HONDURAS
PARAGUAY
2008
2.8
13.8
-1.5
2011
3.3 e
6.4 e
-2.0 e
2009
-2.1
2.9
-0.6
2010
2.8
6.5
-1.0
2009
-1.5
0.9
-0.8
2010
4.5
9.2
-1.0
2008
10.1
6.4
-2.7
2009
3.2
1.7
0.0
2010
7.5
4.9
-3.0
2011
3.4 e
6.0 e
-1.1 e
2009
-3.8
1.9
0.0
2010
14.5
7.2
-0.6
2011
4.4 e
7.3 e
-1.2 e
2009
2.6
6.1
0.2
2010
8.5
7.0
-0.2
2012
3.1
5.4
-1.2
2013
3.9
5.9
-1.2
2012
2.9
7.2
-1.0
2013
3.2
7.2
-1.1
Consensus Forecasts
2011
9.5 e
6.5 e
-4.0 e
2012
6.4
4.8
-4.2
2013
6.3
4.5
-4.4
Consensus Forecasts
2011
4.2 e
5.9 e
-0.6 e
Historical Data
2008
8.6
9.0
-1.5
2013
3.3
5.8
-2.8
Consensus Forecasts
Historical Data
2008
5.8
7.5
-0.3
2012
2.9
5.7
-2.2
Consensus Forecasts
Historical Data
Economy
Nominal GDP - US$31.6bn (2009)
Gross Domestic Product (annual average % change)
Consumer Prices (December-on-December % change)
Current Account (US Dollars, bn)
2010
2.8
5.4
-0.9
Historical Data
Economy
Nominal GDP - US$14.2bn (2009)
Gross Domestic Product (annual average % change)
Consumer Prices (December-on-December % change)
Current Account (US Dollars, bn)
URUGUAY
2008
4.2
10.8
-2.1
Economy
Nominal GDP - US$24.3bn (2009)
Gross Domestic Product (annual average % change)
Consumer Prices (December-on-December % change)
Current Account (US Dollars, bn)
2009
0.5
-0.3
-0.1
Consensus Forecasts
Historical Data
Economy
Nominal GDP - US$6.2bn (2009)
Gross Domestic Product (annual average % change)
Consumer Prices (December-on-December % change)
Current Account (US Dollars, bn)
PANAMA
2008
3.3
9.4
-1.8
Economy
Nominal GDP - US$14.4bn (2009)
Gross Domestic Product (annual average % change)
Consumer Prices (December-on-December % change)
Current Account (US Dollars, bn)
NICARAGUA
Historical Data
2012
3.9
5.4
-0.6
2013
4.5
5.6
-0.7
Consensus Forecasts
2011
5.8 e
8.3 e
-0.7 e
2012
4.4
6.7
-0.9
2013
4.3
6.0
-1.0
15
Currency
JANUARY 2012
Policies
The exchange rate is set by the central bank at daily auctions under a
crawling peg scheme. The central bank's monetary objective is to
preserve the internal purchasing power of the boliviano.
Brazilian
Real
The real was introduced on July 1, 1994 and traded in an adjustable band
until January 1999, when it was allowed to float independently.
Chilean
Peso
2.70
2.90
3.10
3.30
3.50
3.70
3.90
4.10
4.30
4.50
4.70
4.90
5.10
5.30
Jan
07
Jul
07
Jan
08
Jul
08
Jan
09
Jul
09
Jan
10
Jul
10
Jan
11
Jul
11
Jan
12
Jul
12
Jan
13
Colombian Prior to September 25, 1999, the peso traded within a crawling band
system. It has since been allowed to float.
Peso
Costa Rican A crawling peg system. On October 16, 2006, the crawling peg was
modified and the colon was allowed to float within a currency band with
Colon
upper and lower limits.
Dominican
Rep Peso
2.25
Forecast
2.50
2.75
3.00
Jan
07
Jul
07
Managed float with a dual exchange rate until August 2004 (although in
July 1998, exchange controls were relaxed to allow the official exchange
rate - set by the central bank - to trade closer to the free market rate).
Since August 2004, the peso is allowed to float freely.
Ecuadorian The sucre was floated in February 1999. On January 9, 2000, the central
bank announced plans to dollarize the economy, and the US$ replaced
Sucre
the sucre at the rate of Es25,000 = US$1 in March 2000.
Jan
08
Jul
08
Jan
09
Jul
09
Jan
10
Jul
10
Jan
11
Jul
11
Jan
12
Jul
12
Jan
13
440
480
520
Mexican
Peso
Managed float since the December 1994 devaluation; has now been
converted into an independent float since July 2, 2001. The central bank
aims for price stability via an end-year inflation target.
Nicaraguan Crawling peg. 5.0% annual depreciation against the US$. There are no
significant exchange or capital controls.
Crdoba
Panamanian The balboa has been pegged to the US$ at parity since 1904.
Balboa
Paraguayan Managed float in place since early 1998, with the central bank intervening to smooth out fluctuations.
Guarani
Peruvian
Sol
600
640
680
720
Jan
07
Jul
07
Jan
08
Jul
08
Jan
09
Jul
09
Jan
10
Jul
10
Jan
11
Jul
11
Jan
12
Jul
12
Jan
13
Forecast
Jul
07
Jan
08
Jul
08
Jan
09
Jul
09
Jan Jul
10 10
Jan
11
Jul
11
Jan
12
Jul
12
Jan
13
16
560
Forecast
1.650
2.050
2.450
2.850
3.250
3.650
4.050
4.450
4.850
5.250
5.650
Jan
07
Jul
07
Jan
08
Jul
08
Jan
09
Jul
09
Jan
10
Jul
10
Jan
11
Jul
11
Jan
12
Jul
12
Jan
13
JANUARY 2012
The following foreign exchange forecasts represent the consensus (mean) estimates of those forecasters polled in our current
survey. All rates are expressed as the amount of the respective currency per US dollar.
Consensus Forecasts
Historical Data
Rates at the end of:
2008 2009 2010 2011
Latest
Forecast Percent
Spot Rate
End Apr. Change
(Jan. 16)
2012
Forecast Percent
End Jan. change
2013
Forecast Percent
End Jan. change
2014
Argentinian Peso
4.311
4.502
-4.2
5.076
-15.1
5.788
-25.5
Bolivian Boliviano
6.910
6.957
-0.7
6.934
-0.3
6.906
+0.1
Brazilian Real
1.782
1.815
-1.8
1.811
-1.6
1.892
-5.8
Chilean Peso
500.0
517.1
-3.3
515.6
-3.0
522.4
-4.3
Colombian Peso
2198
1843
1840
+0.2
1814
+1.6
1811
+1.7
506.7
517.3
-2.1
523.6
-3.2
539.6
-6.1
38.75
38.87
-0.3
39.61
-2.2
40.67
-4.7
Ecuadorian Sucre
1.000
1.000
0.0
1.000
0.0
1.000
0.0
8.748
8.748
0.0
8.748
0.0
8.748
0.0
Guatemalan Quetzal
7.807
7.908
-1.3
8.043
-2.9
8.133
-4.0
Honduran Lempira
19.05
19.33
-1.5
19.70
-3.3
20.38
-6.6
Mexican Peso
13.54
13.46
+0.6
13.15
+3.0
13.20
+2.6
23.03
23.32
-1.3
24.32
-5.3
25.38
-9.3
Panamanian Balboa
1.000
1.000
0.0
1.000
0.0
1.000
0.0
Paraguayan Guarani
4945
4623
4455
+3.8
4522
+2.2
4632
-0.2
Peruvian Sol
2.693
2.720
-1.0
2.693
0.0
2.655
+1.4
Uruguayan Peso
19.55
19.46
+0.5
19.94
-2.0
20.34
-3.9
Venezuelan Bolivar
4.295
4.497
-4.5
5.566
-22.8
6.571
-34.6
Feb-12
Mar-12
Apr-12
May-12 Jun-12
Jul-12
Aug-12
Sep-12
Oct-12
Nov-12 Dec-12
Jan-13
2.0
Mexican Peso
Colombian Peso
0.0
Peruvian Sol
-2.0
-4.0
Brazilian Real
Chilean Peso
-6.0
-8.0
-10.0
-12.0
-14.0
-16.0
Argentinian Peso
-18.0
-20.0
-22.0
Venezuelan Bolivar
-24.0
17
OIL PRICES
JANUARY 2012
Historical Oil Prices End Year
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
31.2
32.5
43.4
61.1
60.9
2007
96.0
2008
2009
2010
2011
44.6
79.4
91.4
98.8
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Cushing Spot Price US$ per barrel
Monthly Average since December 1997
140
130
120
110
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
D ec -9 7 D ec -98 D ec -99 D e c -00 D ec -01 D ec -02 D ec -03 D ec -04 D ec -05 D ec -06 D ec -07 D ec -08 D ec -09 D ec -1 0 D ec -11 D ec -12 D e c -13
150
140
130
120
110
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
Jan
'05
May
'05
Oct
'05
Feb
'06
Jul
'06
Dec
'06
Apr
'07
January
Survey
Mean Forecast
High
Low
Standard Deviation
No. of Forecasts
Feb
'08
Jun
'08
Nov
'08
Apr
'09
Sep
'09
Jan
'10
Jun
'10
Nov
'10
Mar
'11
Aug
'11
Jan
'12
JANUARY 2012
Sep
'07
10.4 - 145.3
101.3
Forecast for
End Apr.
End Jan.
2012
2013
98.4
100.5
120.0
79.0
8.4
71
122.5
72.5
10.6
66
18
JANUARY 2012
The following two ratios focus on relationships between GDP, foreign currency reserves, external debt and debt service
payments. Historical data is from either country sources or the World Bank Debtor Reporting System. Forecasts for 2011,
2012 and 2013 are based on World Bank data for contractual obligations on existing debt and consensus forecasts from our
latest survey.
Argentina
Brazil
Chile
Colombia
Mexico
Peru
Venezuela
LongTerm Debt
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
(US$bn, 2010)
(%)
(%)
(%)
(%)
(%)
(%)
(%)
7 9 .7
2 5 .4
3 7 .9
2 7 .6
1 8 .7
4 0 .9
2 7 .9
4 4 .1
1 8 .4
3 2 .1
2 1 .5
1 6 .8
3 3 .0
2 4 .1
4 0 .9
1 5 .8
2 6 .4
2 0 .4
1 4 .2
2 8 .1
1 7 .4
3 7 .4
1 4 .4
2 5 .9
1 8 .5
1 4 .6
2 5 .0
1 3 .5
3 0 .1
1 3 .5
2 7 .6
1 6 .6
1 4 .4
2 2 .9
1 0 .7
3 2 .6
1 4 .5
3 2 .0
2 0 .4
1 6 .3
2 4 .9
1 1 .8
2 5 .1
1 3 .1
2 9 .7
1 9 .0
1 5 .6
1 9 .6
1 6 .8
92.8
281.5
60.5
54.9
161.1
30.2
40.1
1
External debt forecasts as a % of nominal GDP (based on existing schedule for long term debt disbursements and principal repayments). Nominal
GDP projections are based on consensus forecasts for real GDP growth, consumer price inflation and average exchange rates.
Annual Long Term Debt Service Payments as a % of Year End Foreign Currency Reserves
Argentina
Brazil
Chile
Colombia
Mexico
Peru
Venezuela
2
Debt Ratings
(Moody's/S&P)
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
20122
20132
(%)
(%)
(%)
(%)
(%)
(%)
(%)
(%)
B3/B
Baa2/BBB
Aa3/A+
Baa3/BBBBaa1/BBB
Baa3/BBB
B2/B+
26.2
71.1
73.9
69.0
69.1
20.2
32.4
18.3
29.8
68.0
41.8
40.0
33.0
20.6
16.9
28.7
69.3
33.5
34.2
16.8
17.2
28.0
19.0
71.1
37.3
31.9
13.5
20.2
29.8
16.1
48.4
35.7
25.0
15.9
62.1
27.1
12.0
34.9
27.1
17.0
5.9
33.2
27.8
10.9
31.9
43.9
14.5
6.9
25.2
24.9
10.0
19.2
32.9
15.3
5.6
21.7
Forecasts for debt service based on payments schedule for currently outstanding debt.
The following two ratios focus on relationships between external payments, nominal GDP and foreign currency reserves.
Historical data is from either country sources or the International Monetary Fund. Forecasts included in 2011, 2012 and 2013
ratios are consensus forecasts from our latest survey.
Argentina
Brazil
Chile
Colombia
Mexico
Peru
Venezuela
3
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
20123
20133
(%)
(%)
(%)
(%)
(%)
(%)
(%)
(%)
3.6
1.2
4.9
-1.8
-0.5
3.1
14.4
2.8
0.1
4.5
-2.9
-0.9
1.4
7.7
2.1
-1.7
-1.9
-2.8
-1.5
-4.2
11.0
3.6
-1.5
1.6
-2.1
-0.7
0.2
1.9
0.8
-2.2
1.9
-3.1
-0.6
-1.5
5.1
0.3
-2.1
-0.6
-2.9
-0.9
-1.9
10.0
-0.2
-2.7
-1.8
-3.1
-1.3
-2.3
6.0
-0.4
-2.7
-1.4
-3.1
-1.4
-2.3
6.6
Based on consensus forecasts for current account balances, real GDP growth and consumer price inflation.
Argentina
Brazil
Chile
Colombia
Mexico
Peru
Venezuela
4
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
20124
20134
(months)
(months)
(months)
(months)
(months)
(months)
(months)
(months)
10.7
11.2
6.4
7.1
3.5
13.5
10.3
11.9
17.9
4.6
7.7
3.7
16.4
6.1
9.3
13.4
4.7
7.3
3.7
12.8
7.7
13.3
21.8
7.2
8.8
4.8
17.7
5.4
9.9
18.5
5.7
8.2
4.6
17.3
2.9
7.3
18.9
6.6
7.8
4.9
15.8
4.8
6.3
17.3
6.5
7.6
4.8
15.4
4.1
5.7
16.3
6.1
7.2
4.7
15.0
5.9
Projected on the basis of consensus forecasts for annual merchandise imports (divided by 12) and foreign currency reserves.
19
Real GDP
Consumer Prices
Current Account
% increase
% increase (Dec/Dec)
Balance, US$bn
2011
2012
2013
2011
2012
2013
2011
2012
2013
7.7
3.6
3.7
9.5
9.8
10.8
1.4
-0.8
-1.7
4.7
3.7
4.1
7.6
5.9
6.3
1.0
1.2
1.3
Argentina
Bolivia
Brazil
Chile
Colombia
Costa Rica
Dominican Republic
Ecuador
El Salvador
Guatemala
Honduras
Mexico
Nicaragua
Panama
Paraguay
Peru
Uruguay
Venezuela
6.8
5.1
5.6
4.7
2.8
2.7
-3.3
-4.3
-4.8
5.8
4.4
4.3
8.3
6.7
6.0
-0.7
-0.9
-1.0
4.0
4.1
1.7
29.0
29.4
31.2
31.5
24.4
30.2
Latin America1
4.1
3.6
4.0
7.0
6.2
6.3
-62.1
-95.1
-101.3
North America2
Western Europe3
Asia/Pacific4
Eastern Europe5
1.8
2.2
2.5
3.1
1.9
2.0
-513
-498
-503
2.9
3.3
4.3
6.5
5.3
5.1
-52.2
-66.0
-73.6
6.2
4.1
4.8
4.4
3.1
3.1
-1.4
-4.4
-3.6
5.5
4.4
4.6
3.7
3.4
3.3
-9.5
-10.5
-11.5
3.8
3.6
4.0
4.6
5.0
5.6
-2.1
-2.1
-2.1
4.4
4.8
4.9
8.2
6.2
5.6
-5.5
-4.4
-4.2
5.8
3.8
3.8
5.5
4.1
4.7
-1.7
-2.2
-1.7
1.6
1.9
2.4
5.5
3.9
3.7
-1.0
-1.0
-1.1
3.3
2.9
3.3
6.4
5.7
5.8
-2.0
-2.2
-2.8
3.4
3.1
3.9
6.0
5.4
5.9
-1.1
-1.2
-1.2
4.0
3.3
3.4
3.8
3.7
3.6
-9.9
-14.8
-17.2
4.4
2.9
3.2
7.3
7.2
7.2
-1.2
-1.0
-1.1
9.5
6.4
6.3
6.5
4.8
4.5
-4.0
-4.2
-4.4
4.2
3.9
4.5
5.9
5.4
5.6
-0.6
-0.6
-0.7
1.5
0.0
1.2
2.7
1.9
1.7
200
217
255
4.4
5.0
5.2
3.6
2.6
2.7
455
394
389
4.6
2.4
3.7
6.4
6.4
5.2
-15.3
-20.5
-46.7
Includes countries listed above. 2USA and Canada. 3Germany, France, the United Kingdom, Italy, Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland,
Greece, Ireland, the Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden and Switzerland. 4Fifteen countries taken from the latest issue
of Asia Pacific Consensus Forecasts. 5 Nineteen countries, including the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Russia and Turkey,
taken from the latest issue of Eastern Europe Consensus Forecasts. Regional totals, as well as the grand total, for GDP and inflation
are weighted averages calculated using 2010 GDP weights, converted at average 2010 exchange rates. Forecasts for North
America and Western Europe are taken from the latest monthly issue of Consensus Forecasts. Inflation figures for non-Latin American
regions shown above are annual average % changes except Russia.
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