Ballantine Books Edition, September 1997

ISBN: 0-345-37659-5
Sanned: !eember, "000 #$1$0
%ormatted &or 'ie(in) in *ord 97
+,-. S,/,N
0,.E B.1E !23
, # I S I 2 N 2 % 3 4 E
4 1 5 , N % 1 3 1- E I N S 0, + E

% 2 - S , 5
,not6er (anderer,
5a7 7o8r )eneration see
*onders 8ndreamt$
S0,+E+-,%3 E90.2-,3I2N
2% 34E S2.,- S:S3E5
NOTABLE EARLY ACHIEVEMENTS
UNITED STATES
195; %irst sienti&i diso'er7 in spae-#an ,llen radiation belt
(Explorer 1)
1959 %irst tele'ision ima)es o& t6e Eart6 &rom spae
(Explorer 6)
196" %irst sienti&i diso'er7 in interplanetar7 spae -diret obser'ation o& t6e solar (ind
(Mariner 2)
196" %irst sienti&iall7 s8ess&8l planetar7 mission
(Mariner 2 to #en8s<
196" %irst astronomial obser'ator7 in spae
(OSO-1<
196; %irst manned orbit o& anot6er (orld
=Apollo 8 to t6e 5oon<
1969 %irst landin) o& 68mans on anot6er (orld
=Apollo 11 to t6e 5oon<
1969 %irst samples ret8rned to Eart6 &rom anot6er (orld
=Apollo 11 to t6e 5oon<
1971 %irst manned ro'in) 'e6ile on anot6er (orld
=Apollo 15 to t6e 5oon<
1971 %irst spaera&t to orbit anot6er planet
(Mariner 9 to 5ars<
1973 %irst &l7b7 o& >8piter
(Pioneer 10)
1974 %irst d8al-planet mission
(Mariner 10 to #en8s and 5er8r7<
1974 %irst &l7b7 o& 5er8r7
(Mariner 10)
1976 %irst s8ess&8l 5ars landin)? &irst spaera&t
to sear6 &or li&e on anot6er planet
(Viking 1)
1977 %irst &l7b7s o& Sat8rn
(Pioneer 11)
19;1 %irst manned re8sable spaera&t
=S3S-1<
19;0- %irst satellite to be retrie'ed, repaired,
19;4 and redeplo7ed in spae
(Solar Maximum Miion)
19;5 %irst distant ometar7 eno8nter
(!n"erna"ional #ome"ar$ Explorer to +omet /iaobini-@immer<
19;6 %irst &l7b7 o& 1ran8s
(Vo$ager "<
19;9 %irst &l7b7 o& Nept8ne
(Vo$ager "<
199" %irst detetion o& t6e 6eliopa8se
(Vo$ager)
199" %irst eno8nter (it6 a main-belt asteroid
(%alileo to /aspra<
1994 %irst detetion o& a moon o& an asteroid
"
(%alileo to Ida<
SOVIET UNION/RUSSIA
1957 %irst arti&iial satellite o& t6e Eart6
=Spu"nik 1<
1957 %irst animal in spae
=Spu"nik 2<
1959 %irst spaera&t to esape t6e Eart6As )ra'it7
=&una 1<
1959 %irst arti&iial planet o& t6e S8n
=&una 1<
1959 %irst spaera&t to impat anot6er (orld
=&una 2 to t6e 5oon<
1959 %irst 'ie( o& t6e &ar side o& t6e moon
=&una '<
1961 %irst 68man in spae
=Vo"ok 1<
1961 %irst 68man to orbit t6e Eart6
=Vo"ok 1<
1961 %irst spaera&t to &l7 b7 ot6er planets
=Venera 1 to #en8s?
196" Mar 1 to 5ars<
1963 %irst (oman in spae
=Vo"ok 6<
1964 %irst m8lti-person spae mission
=Vok(o) 1<
1965 %irst spae B(alkB
=Vok(o) "<
1966 %irst spaera&t to enter t6e atmosp6ere o& anot6er planet
=Venera ' to #en8s<
1966 %irst spaera&t to orbit anot6er (orld
=&una 10 to t6e 5oon<
1966 %irst s8ess&8l so&t landin) on anot6er (orld
=&una 9 to t6e 5oon<
1970 %irst robot mission to ret8rn a sample &rom anot6er (orld
(&una 16 to t6e 5oon<
1970 %irst ro'in) 'e6ile on anot6er (orld
(&una 1* to t6e 5oon<
1971 %irst so&t landin) on anot6er planet
(Mar ' to 5ars<
197" %irst sienti&iall7 s8ess&8l landin) on anot6er planet
(Venera 8 to #en8s<
19;0 %irst approCimatel7 7ear-lon) manned spae&li)6t
19;1 =omparable to 5ars &li)6t time<
(So$u+ '5)
19;3 %irst &8ll orbital radar mappin) o& anot6er planet
(Venera 15 to #en8s<
19;5 %irst balloon station deplo7ed in t6e atmosp6ere o& anot6er planet
(Vega 1 to #en8s<
19;6 %irst lose ometar7 eno8nter
(Vega 1 to 4alle7As +omet<
19;6 %irst spae station in6abited b7 rotatin) re(s (Mir)
3
+2N3EN3S
*,N!E-E-S: ,N IN3-2!1+3I2N 5
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3$ 34E /-E,3 !E523I2NS "0
4$ , 1NI#E-SE N23 5,!E %2- 1S "9
5$ IS 34E-E IN3E..I/EN3 .I%E 2N E,-34D 39 6$
34E 3-I1504 2% VO,A%E- 46
7$ ,52N/ 34E 522NS 2% S,31-N 54
;$ 34E %I-S3 NE* 0.,NE3 6"
9$ ,N ,5E-I+,N S4I0 ,3 34E %-2N3IE-S 2% 34E S2.,- S:S3E5 69
10$ S,+-E! B.,+E 7;
11$ E#ENIN/ ,N! 52-NIN/ S3,- ;4
1"$ 34E /-21N! 5E.3S 90
13$ 34E /I%3 2% APO&&O 9;
14$ E90.2-IN/ 234E- *2-.!S ,N! 0-23E+3IN/ 34IS 2NE 103
15$ 34E /,3ES 2% 34E *2N!E- *2-.! 20EN 109
16$ S+,.IN/ 4E,#EN 1""
17$ -213INE IN3E-0.,NE3,-: #I2.EN+E 134
1;$ 34E 5,-S4 2% +,5,-IN, 143
19$ -E5,EIN/ 34E 0.,NE3S 15"
"0$ !,-ENESS 16"
"1$ 32 34E SE:F 171
""$ 3I032EIN/ 34-21/4 34E 5I.E: *,: 177
,B213 34E ,1342- 1;9
,+EN2*.E!/5EN3S 1;9
-E%E-EN+ES 191
4
WANDERERS:
AN INTRODUCTION
B8t tell me, (6o are t6e7, t6ese (anderers $ $ $D
G-,INE- 5,-I, -I.EE, B34E %I%34 E.E/:B =19"3<
We (ere (anderers &rom t6e be)innin)$ *e kne( e'er7 stand o& tree &or a 68ndred miles$
*6en t6e &r8its or n8ts (ere ripe, (e (ere t6ere$ *e &ollo(ed t6e 6erds in t6eir ann8al
mi)rations$ *e reHoied in &res6 meat$ t6ro8)6 stealt6, &eint, amb8s6, and main-&ore assa8lt, a
&e( o& 8s ooperatin) aomplis6ed (6at man7 o& 8s, ea6 68ntin) alone, o8ld not$ *e
depended on one anot6er$ 5akin) it on o8r o(n (as as l8diro8s to ima)ine as (as settlin)
do(n$
*orkin) to)et6er, (e proteted o8r 6ildren &rom t6e lions and t6e 67enas$ *e ta8)6t t6em
t6e skills t6e7 (o8ld need$ ,nd t6e tools$ 36en, as no(, te6nolo)7 (as t6e ke7 to o8r s8r'i'al$
*6en t6e dro8)6t (as prolon)ed, or (6en an 8nsettlin) 6ill lin)ered in t6e s8mmer air, o8r
)ro8p mo'ed onGsometimes to 8nkno(n lands$ *e so8)6t a better plae$ ,nd (6en (e o8ldnAt
)et on (it6 t6e ot6ers in o8r little nomadi band, (e le&t to &ind a more &riendl7 b8n6
some(6ere else$ *e o8ld al(a7s be)in a)ain$
%or 99$9 perent o& t6e time sine o8r speies ame to be, (e (ere 68nters and &ora)ers,
(anderers on t6e sa'anna6s and t6e steppes$ 36ere (ere no border )8ards t6en, no 8stoms
o&&iials$ 36e &rontier (as e'er7(6ere$ *e (ere bo8nded onl7 b7 t6e Eart6 and t6e oean and t6e
sk7Gpl8s oasional )r8mp7 nei)6bors$
*6en t6e limate (as on)enial, t6o8)6, (6en t6e &ood (as plenti&8l, (e (ere (illin) to
sta7 p8t$ 1nad'ent8ro8s$ 2'er(ei)6t$ +areless$ In t6e last ten t6o8sand 7earsGan instant in o8r
lon) 6istor7G (eA'e abandoned t6e nomadi &i&e$ *eA'e domestiated t6e plants and animals$
*67 6ase t6e &ood (6en 7o8 an make it ome to 7o8D
%or all its material ad'anta)es, t6e sedentar7 li&e 6as le&t 8s ed)7, 8n&8l&illed$ E'en a&ter 400
)enerations in 'illa)es and ities, (e 6a'enAt &or)otten$ 36e open road still so&tl7 alls, like a
nearl7 &or)otten son) o& 6ild6ood$ *e in'est &ar-o&& plaes (it6 a ertain romane$ 36is appeal, I
s8spet, 6as been meti8lo8sl7 ra&ted b7 nat8ral seletion as an essential element in o8r s8r'i'al$
.on) s8mmers, mild (inters, ri6 6ar'ests, plenti&8l )ameGnone o& t6em lasts &ore'er$ It is
be7ond o8r po(ers to predit t6e &8t8re$ +atastrop6i e'ents 6a'e a (a7 o& sneakin) 8p on 8s, o&
at6in) 8s 8na(are$ :o8r o(n li&e, or 7o8r bandAs, or e'en 7o8r speiesA mi)6t be o(ed to a
restless &e(Gdra(n, b7 a ra'in) t6e7 an 6ardl7 arti8late or 8nderstand, to 8ndiso'ered lands
and ne( (orlds$
4erman 5el'ille, in 5ob7 !ik, spoke &or (anderers in all epo6s and meridians: BI am
tormented (it6 an e'erlastin) it6 &or t6in)s remote$ I lo'e to sail &orbidden seas $ $ $B
3o t6e anient /reeks and -omans, t6e kno(n (orld omprised E8rope and an atten8ated
,sia and ,&ria, all s8rro8nded b7 an impassable *orld 2ean$ 3ra'elers mi)6t eno8nter
5
in&erior bein)s alled barbarians or s8perior bein)s alled )ods$ E'er7 tree 6ad its dr7ad, e'er7
distrit its le)endar7 6ero$ B8t t6ere (ere not 'er7 man7 )ods, at least at &irst, per6aps onl7 a &e(
doIen$ 36e7 li'ed on mo8ntains, 8nder t6e Eart6, in t6e sea, or 8p t6ere in t6e sk7$ 36e7 sent
messa)es to people, inter'ened in 68man a&&airs, and interbred (it6 8s$
,s time passed, as t6e 68man eCplorator7 apait7 6it its stride, t6ere (ere s8rprises:
Barbarians o8ld be &8ll7 as le'er as /reeks and -omans$ ,&ria and ,sia (ere lar)er t6an
an7one 6ad )8essed$ 36e *orld 2ean (as not impassable$ 36ere (ere ,ntipodes$
1
36ree ne(
ontinents eCisted, 6ad been settled b7 ,sians in a)es past, and t6e ne(s 6ad ne'er rea6ed
E8rope$ ,lso t6e )ods (ere disappointin)l7 6ard to &ind$
36e &irst lar)e-sale 68man mi)ration &rom t6e 2ld *orld to t6e Ne( 6appened d8rin)
t6e last ie a)e, aro8nd 11,500 7ears a)o, (6en t6e )ro(in) polar ie aps s6allo(ed t6e oeans
and made it possible to (alk on dr7 land &rom Siberia to ,laska$ , t6o8sand 7ears later, (e (ere
in 3ierra del %8e)o, t6e so8t6ern tip o& So8t6 ,meria$ .on) be&ore +ol8mb8s, Indonesian
ar)ona8ts in o8tri))er anoes eCplored t6e (estern 0ai&i? people &rom Borneo settled
5ada)asar? E)7ptians and .ib7ans ir8mna'i)ated ,&ria? and a )reat &leet o& oean )oin)
H8nks &rom 5in) !7nast7 +6ina rissrossed t6e Indian 2ean, establis6ed a base in @anIibar,
ro8nded t6e +ape o& /ood 4ope, and entered t6e ,tlanti 2ean$ In t6e &i&teent6 t6ro8)6
se'enteent6 ent8ries, E8ropean sailin) s6ips diso'ered ne( ontinents =ne(, at an7 rate, to
E8ropeans< and ir8mna'i)ated t6e planet$ In t6e ei)6teent6 and nineteent6 ent8ries, ,merian
and -8ssian eCplorers, traders, and settlers raed (est and east aross t(o 'ast ontinents to t6e
0ai&i$ 36is Iest to eCplore and eCploit, 6o(e'er t6o8)6tless its a)ents ma7 6a'e been, 6as lear
s8r'i'al 'al8e$ It is not restrited to an7 one nation or et6ni )ro8p$ It is an endo(ment t6at all
members o& t6e 68man speies 6old in ommon$
Sine (e &irst emer)ed, a &e( million 7ears a)o in East ,&ria, (e 6a'e meandered o8r
(a7 aro8nd t6e planet$ 36ere are no( people on e'er7 ontinent and t6e remotest islands, &rom
pole to pole, &rom 5o8nt E'erest to t6e !ead Sea, on t6e oean bottoms and e'en, oasionall7,
in residene "00 miles 8pG68mans, like t6e )ods o& old, li'in) in t6e sk7$
36ese da7s t6ere seems to be no(6ere le&t to eCplore, at least on t6e land area o& t6e
Eart6$ #itims o& t6eir 'er7 s8ess t6e eCplorers no( prett7 m86 sta7 6ome$
#ast mi)rations o& peopleGsome 'ol8ntar7, most notG 6a'e s6aped t6e 68man
ondition$ 5ore o& 8s &lee &rom (ar, oppression, and &amine toda7 t6an at an7 ot6er time in
68man 6istor7$ ,s t6e Eart6As limate 6an)es in t6e omin) deade$ t6ere are likel7 to be &ar
)reater n8mbers o& en'ironmental re&8)ees$ Better plaes (ill al(a7s all to 8s$ 3ides o& people
(ill ontin8e to ebb and &lo( aross t6e planet$ B8t t6e lands (e r8n to no( 6a'e alread7 been
settled$ 2t6er people, o&ten 8ns7mpat6eti to o8r pli)6t, are t6ere be&ore 8s$

J J J
1
B,s to t6e &able t6at t6ere are ,ntipodes,B (rote St$ ,8)8stine in t6e &i&t6 ent8r7, Bt6at is to sa7, men on t6e opposite side o& t6e
eart6, (6ere t6e s8n rises (6en it sets to 8s, men (6o (alk (it6 t6eir &eet opposite o8rs, t6at is on IAll )ro8nd redible$B E'en i& some
8nkno(n landmass is t6ere, and not H8st oean, Bt6ere (as onl7 one pair o& ori)inal anestors, and it is inonei'able t6at s86 distant
re)ions s6o8ld 6a'e been peopled b7 ,damAs desendants$AA
6
LATE IN THE NINETEENTH CENTURY, .eib /r8ber (as )ro(in) 8p 111 +entral E8rope, in an
obs8re to(n in t6e immense, pol7)lot, anient ,8stro-48n)arian Empire$ 4is &at6er sold &is6
(6en 6e o8ld$ B8t times (ere o&ten 6ard$ ,s a 7o8n) man, t6e onl7 6onest emplo7ment .eib
o8ld &ind (as arr7in) people aross t6e nearb7 ri'er B8)$ 36e 8stomer, male or &emale, (o8ld
mo8nt .eibAs bak? in 6is priIed boots, t6e tools o& 6is trade, 6e (o8ld (ade o8t in a s6allo(
stret6 o& t6e ri'er and deli'er 6is passen)er to t6e opposite bank$ Sometimes t6e (ater rea6ed
6is (aist$ 36ere (ere no brid)es 6ere, no &err7boats$ 4orses mi)6t 6a'e ser'ed t6e p8rpose, b8t
t6e7 6ad ot6er 8ses$ 36at le&t .eib and a &e( ot6er 7o8n) men like 6im$ 36e7 6ad no ot6er 8ses$
No ot6er (ork (as a'ailable$ 36e7 (o8ld lo8n)e abo8t t6e ri'erbank, allin) o8t t6eir pries,
boastin) to potential 8stomers abo8t t6e s8periorit7 o& t6eir dra7a)e$ 36e7 6ired t6emsel'es o8t
like &o8r-&ooted animals$ 57 )rand&at6er (as a beast o& b8rden
I donAt t6ink t6at in all 6is 7o8n) man6ood .eib 6ad 'ent8red more t6an a 68ndred
kilometers &rom 6is little 6ometo(n o& Sasso($ B8t t6en, in 1904, 6e s8ddenl7 ran a(a7 to t6e
Ne( *orld to a'oid a m8rder rap, aordin) to one &amil7 le)end$ 4e le&t 6is 7o8n) (i&e be6ind$
4o( di&&erent &rom 6is tin7 bak-(ater 6amlet t6e )reat /erman port ities m8st 6a'e seemed,
6o( 'ast t6e oean, 6o( stran)e t6e lo&t7 sk7srapers and endless 68b-b8b o& 6is ne( land$ *e
kno( not6in) o& 6is rossin), b8t 6a'e &o8nd t6e s6ipAs mani&est &or t6e Ho8rne7 8ndertaken later
b7 6is (i&e, +6ai7a Hoinin) .eib a&ter 6e 6ad sa'ed eno8)6 to brin) 6er o'er$ S6e tra'eled in t6e
6eapest lass on t6e Bata'ia, a 'essel o& 4amb8r) re)istr7$ 36ereAs somet6in) 6eartbreakin)l7
terse abo8t t6e do8ment: +an s6e read or (riteD No$ +an s6e speak En)lis6D No$ 4o( m86
mone7 does s6e 6a'eD I an ima)ine 6er '8lnerabilit7 and 6er s6ame as s6e replies, B2ne dollar$B
S6e disembarked in Ne( :ork, (as re8nited (it6 .eib, li'ed H8st lon) eno8)6 to )i'e
birt6 to m7 mot6er and 6er sister, and t6en died &rom BompliationsB o& 6ildbirt6$ In t6ose &e(
7ears in ,meria, 6er name 6ad sometimes been an)liiIed to +lara$ , K8arter ent8r7 later, m7
mot6er named 6er o(n &irstborn, a son, a&ter t6e mot6er s6e ne'er kne($
OUR DISTANT ANCESTORS, (at6in) t6e stars, noted &i'e t6at did more t6an rise and set in stolid
proession, as t6e so-alled B&iCedB stars did$ 36ese &i'e 6ad a 8rio8s and ompleC motion$ 2'er
t6e mont6s t6e7 seemed to (ander slo(l7 amon) t6e stars$ Sometimes t6e7 did loops$ 3oda7 (e
all t6em planets, t6e /reek (ord &or (anderers$ It (as, I ima)ine, a pe8liarit7 o8r anestors
o8ld relate to$
*e kno( no( t6at t6e planets are not stars, b8t ot6er (orlds, )ra'itationall7 las6ed to t6e
S8n$ >8st as t6e eCploration o& t6e Eart6 (as bein) ompleted, (e be)an to reo)niIe it as one
(orld amon) an 8no8nted m8ltit8de o& ot6ers, irlin) t6e S8n or orbitin) t6e ot6er stars t6at
make 8p t6e 5ilk7 *a7 )alaC7$ 28r planet and o8r solar s7stem are s8rro8nded b7 a ne( (orld
oean t6e dept6s o& spae$ It is no more impassable t6an t6e last$
5a7be itAs a little earl7$ 5a7be t6e time is not K8ite 7et$ B8t t6ose ot6er (orldsG
promisin) 8ntold opport8nitiesGbekon$
In t6e last &e( deades, t6e 1nited States and t6e &ormer So'iet 1nion 6a'e
aomplis6ed somet6in) st8nnin) and 6istoriGt6e lose-8p eCamination o& all t6ose points o&
li)6t, &rom 5er8r7 to Sat8rn, t6at mo'ed o8r anestors to (onder and to siene$ Sine t6e
ad'ent o& s8ess&8l interplanetar7 &li)6t in 196", o8r ma6ines 6a'e &lo(n b7, orbited, or landed
7
on more t6an se'ent7 ne( (orlds$ *e 6a'e (andered amon) t6e (anderers$ *e 6a'e &o8nd 'ast
'olani eminenes t6at d(ar& t6e 6i)6est mo8ntain on Eart6? anient ri'er 'alle7s on t(o planets
eni)matiall7 one too old and t6e ot6er too 6ot &or r8nnin) (ater? a )iant planet (it6 an interior
o& liK8id metalli 67dro)en into (6i6 a t6o8sand Eart6s (o8ld &it? (6ole moons t6at 6a'e
melted? a lo8d-o'ered plae (it6 an atmosp6ere o& orrosi'e raids, (6ere e'en t6e 6i)6
platea8s are abo'e t6e meltin) point o& lead anient s8r&aes on (6i6 a &ait6&8l reord o& t6e
'iolent &ormation o& t6e Solar S7stem is en)ra'ed? re&8)ee ie (orlds &rom t6e transpl8tonian
dept6s? eCK8isitel7 patterned rin) s7stems, markin) t6e s8btle 6armonies o& )ra'it7? and a (orld
s8rro8nded b7 lo8ds o& ompleC or)ani mole8les like t6ose t6at m t6e earliest 6istor7 o& o8r
planet led to t6e ori)in o& li&e$ Silentl7, t6e7 orbit t6e S8n, (aitin)$
*e 6a'e 8no'ered (onders 8ndreamt b7 o8r anestors (6o &irst spe8lated on t6e
nat8re o& t6ose (anderin) li)6ts in t6e ni)6t sk7$ *e 6a'e probed t6e ori)ins o& o8r planet and
o8rsel'es$ B7 diso'erin) (6at else is possible, b7 omin) &ae to &ae (it6 alternati'e &ates o&
(orlds more or less like o8r o(n, (e 6a'e be)8n to better 8nderstand t6e Eart6$ E'er7 one o&
t6ese (orlds is lo'el7 and instr8ti'e$ B8t, so &ar as (e kno(, t6e7 are also, e'er7 one o& t6em,
desolate and barren$ 28t t6ere, t6ere are no Bbetter plaes$B So &ar, at least$
!8rin) t6e #ikin) roboti mission, be)innin) in >8l7 1976, in a ertain sense I spent a
7ear on 5ars$ I eCamined t6e bo8lders and sand d8nes, t6e sk7 red e'en at 6i)6 noon, t6e anient
ri'er 'alle7s, t6e soarin) 'olani mo8ntains, t6e &iere (ind erosion, t6e laminated polar terrain,
t6e t(o dark potato-s6aped moons$ B8t t6ere (as no li&eGnot a riket or a blade o& )rass, or
e'en, so &ar as (e an tell &or s8re, a mirobe$ 36ese (orlds 6a'e not been )raed, as o8rs 6as, b7
li&e$ .i&e is a omparati'e rarit7$ :o8 an s8r'e7 doIens o& (orlds and &ind t6at on onl7 one o&
t6em does li&e arise and e'ol'e and persist$
4a'in) in all t6eir li'es till t6en rossed not6in) (ider t6an a la7er, .eib and +6ai7a
)rad8ated to rossin) oeans$ 36e7 6ad one )reat ad'anta)e: 2n t6e ot6er side o& t6e (aters t6ere
(o8ld be-in'ested (it6 o8tlandis6 8stoms, it is tr8eGot6er 68man bein)s speakin) t6eir
lan)8a)e and s6arin) at least some o& t6eir 'al8es, e'en people to (6om t6e7 (ere losel7
related$
In o8r time (eA'e rossed t6e Solar S7stem and sent &o8r s6ips to t6e stars$ Nept8ne lies a
million times &art6er &rom Eart6 t6an Ne( :ork +it7 is &rom t6e banks o& t6e B8)$ B8t t6ere are
no distant relati'es, no 68mans, and apparentl7 no li&e (aitin) &or 8s on t6ose ot6er (orlds$ No
letters on'e7ed b7 reent Lmi)rLs 6elp 8s to 8nderstand t6e ne( landG onl7 di)ital data
transmitted at t6e speed o& li)6t b7 8n&eelin), preise robot emissaries$ 36e7 tell 8s t6at t6ese ne(
(orlds are not m86 like 6ome$ B8t (e ontin8e to sear6 &or in6abitants$ *e anAt 6elp it$ .i&e
looks &or li&e$
No one on Eart6, not t6e ri6est amon) 8s, an a&&ord t6e passa)e? so (e anAt pik 8p
and lea'e &or 5ars or 3itan on a (6im, or bea8se (eAre bored, or o8t o& (ork, or dra&ted into t6e
arm7, or oppressed, or bea8se, H8stl7 or 8nH8stl7, (eA'e been a8sed o& a rime$ 36ere does not
seem to be s8&&iient s6ort-term pro&it to moti'ate pri'ate ind8str7$ I& (e 68mans e'er )o to t6ese
(orlds, t6en, it (ill be bea8se a nation or a onsorti8m o& t6em belie'es it to be to its ad'anta)e
Gor to t6e ad'anta)e o& t6e 68man speies$ >8st no(, t6ere are a )reat man7 matters pressin) in
on 8s t6at ompete &or t6e mone7 it takes to send people to ot6er (orlds$
;
36atAs (6at t6is book is abo8t: ot6er (orlds, (6at a(aits 8s on t6em, (6at t6e7 tell 8s abo8t
o8rsel'es, andG)i'en t6e 8r)ent problems o8r speies no( &aesG(6et6er it makes sense to )o$
S6o8ld (e sol'e t6ose problems &irstD 2r are t6e7 a reason &or )oin)D
36is book is, in man7 (a7s, optimisti abo8t t6e 68man prospet$ 36e earliest 6apters ma7 at
&irst si)6t seem to re'el o'erm86 in o8r imper&etions$ B8t t6e7 la7 an essential spirit8al and
lo)ial &o8ndation &or t6e de'elopment o& m7 ar)8ment$
I 6a'e tried to present more t6an one &aet o& an iss8e$ 36ere (ill be plaes (6ere I seem
to be ar)8in) (it6 m7sel&$ I am$ Seein) some merit to more t6an one side, I o&ten ar)8e (it6
m7sel&$ I 6ope b7 t6e last 6apter it (ill be lear (6ere I ome o8t$
36e plan o& t6e book is ro8)6l7 t6is: *e &irst eCamine t6e (idespread laims made o'er
all o& 68man 6istor7 t6at o8r (orld and o8r speies are 8niK8e, and e'en entral to t6e (orkin)s
and p8rpose o& t6e +osmos$ *e 'ent8re t6ro8)6 t6e Solar S7stem in t6e &ootsteps o& t6e latest
'o7a)es o& eCploration and diso'er7, and t6en assess t6e reasons ommonl7 o&&ered &or sendin)
68mans into spae$ In t6e last and most spe8lati'e part o& t6e book, I trae 6o( I ima)ine t6at
o8r lon)-term &8t8re in spae (ill (ork itsel& o8t$
0ale Bl8e !ot is abo8t a ne( reo)nition, still slo(l7 o'ertakin) 8s, o& o8r oordinates,
o8r plae in t6e 1ni'erse and 6o(, e'en i& t6e all o& t6e open road is m8ted in o8r time, a entral
element o& t6e 68man &8t8re lies &ar be7ond t6e Eart6$

9
+ 4 , 0 3 E - 1
YOU ARE HERE
36e entire Eart6 is b8t a point, and t6e plae o&
o8r o(n 6abitation b8t a min8te orner o& it$
G5,-+1S ,1-E.I1S, -25,N E50E-2-,
ME.!/A/!O0S, B22E 4 =+,$ 170<
,s t6e astronomers 8nanimo8sl7 tea6, t6e ir8it o& t6e (6ole eart6,
(6i6 to 8s seems endless, ompared (it6 t6e )reatness o& t6e 8ni'erse
6as t6e likeness o& a mere tin7 point$
G,55I,N1S 5,-+E..IN1S ,+,$ 330-395,
34E .,S3 5,>2- -25,N 4IS32-I,N,
IN /1E #1-O0!#&E O2 EVE0/S
T6e spaera&t (as a lon) (a7 &rom 6ome, be7ond t6e orbit o& t6e o8termost planet and 6i)6
abo'e t6e elipti planeG(6i6 is an ima)inar7 &lat s8r&ae t6at (e an t6ink o& as somet6in)
like a raetrak in (6i6 t6e orbits o& t6e planets are mainl7 on&ined$ 36e s6ip (as speedin)
a(a7 &rom t6e S8n at 40,000 miles per 6o8r$ B8t in earl7 %ebr8ar7 o& 1990, it (as o'ertaken b7
an 8r)ent messa)e &rom Eart6$
2bedientl7, it t8rned its ameras bak to(ard t6e no(-distant planets$ Sle(in) its san
plat&orm &rom one spot in t6e sk7 to anot6er, it snapped 60 pit8res and stored t6em in di)ital
&orm on its tape reorder$ 36en, slo(l7, in 5ar6, ,pril, and 5a7, it radioed t6e data bak to
Eart6$ Ea6 ima)e (as omposed o& 640,000 indi'id8al pit8re elements =BpiCelsB<, like t6e dots
in a ne(spaper (ire-p6oto or a pointillist paintin)$ 36e spaera&t (as 3$7 billion miles a(a7
&rom Eart6, so &ar a(a7 t6at it took et6 piCel 5M 6o8rs, tra'elin) at t6e speed o& li)6t, to rea6
8s$ 36e pit8res mi)6t 6a'e been ret8rned earlier, b8t t6e bi) radio telesopes in +ali&ornia,
Spain, and ,8stralia t6at reei'e t6ese (6ispers &rom t6e ed)e o& t6e Solar S7stem 6ad
responsibilities to ot6er s6ips t6at pl7 t6e sea o& spae amon) t6em, 5a)ellan, bo8nd &or #en8s,
and /alileo on its tort8o8s passa)e to >8piter$
Vo$ager 1 (as so 6i)6 abo'e t6e elipti plane bea8se, in 19;1, it 6ad made a lose pass
b7 3itan, t6e )iant moon o& Sat8rn$ Its sister s6ip, Vo$ager 2, (as dispat6ed on a di&&erent
traHetor7, (it6in t6e elipti plane, and so s6e (as able to per&orm 6er elebrated eCplorations o&
1ran8s and Nept8ne 36e t(o Vo$ager robots 6a'e eCplored &o8r planets and nearl7 siCt7 moons$
36e7 are tri8mp6s o& 68man en)ineerin) an$ one o& t6e )lories o& t6e ,merian spae pro)ram$
36e7 (ill 6e in t6e 6istor7 books (6en m86 else abo8t o8r time &or)otten$
36e Vo$ager (ere )8aranteed to (ork onl7 8ntil t6e Sat8rn eno8nter$ I t6o8)6t it mi)6t
be a )ood idea, H8st a&ter Sat8rn, to 6a'e t6em take one last )lane 6ome(ard$ %rom Sat8rn, I
kne( t6e Eart6 (o8ld appear too small &or Vo$ager to make o8t an7 detail$ 28r planet (o8ld be
H8st a point o& li)6t, a lonel7 piCel, 6ardl7 distin)8is6able &rom t6e man7 ot6er points o& li)6t
Vo$ager o8ld see, nearb7 planets and &ar-o&& s8ns$ B8t preise bea8se o& t6e obs8rit7 o& o8r
(orld t68s re'ealed, s86 pit8re mi)6t be (ort6 6a'in)$
10
5ariners 6ad painstakin)l7 mapped t6e oastlines o& t6e ontinents$ /eo)rap6ers 6ad
translated t6ese &indin)s into 6arts and )lobes$ 06oto)rap6s o& tin7 pat6es o& t6e Eart6 6ad been
obtained &irst b7 balloons and airra&t, t6en b7 rokets in brie& ballisti &li)6t, and at last b7
orbitin) spaera&tG)i'in) a perspeti'e like t6e one 7o8 a6ie'e b7 positionin) 7o8r e7eball
abo8t an in6 abo'e a lar)e )lobe$ *6ile almost e'er7one is ta8)6t t6at t6e Eart6 is a sp6ere (it6
all o& 8s some6o( )l8ed to it b7 )ra'it7, t6e realit7 o& o8r ir8mstane did not reall7 be)in to
sink in 8ntil t6e &amo8s &rame-&illin) ,pollo p6oto)rap6 o& t6e (6ole Eart6Gt6e one taken b7
t6e ,pollo 17 astrona8ts on t6e last Ho8rne7 o& 68mans to t6e 5oon$
It 6as beome a kind o& ion o& o8r a)e$ 36ereAs ,ntartia at (6at ,merians and E8ropeans
so readil7 re)ard as t6e bottom, and t6en all o& ,&ria stret6in) 8p abo'e it: :o8 an see
Et6iopia, 3anIania, and Een7a, (6ere t6e earliest 68mans li'ed$ ,t top ri)6t are Sa8di ,rabia and
(6at E8ropeans all t6e Near East$ >8st barel7 peekin) o8t at t6e top is t6e 5editerranean Sea,
aro8nd (6i6 so m86 o& o8r )lobal i'iliIation emer)ed$ :o8 an make o8t t6e bl8e o& t6e
oean, t6e 7ello(-red o& t6e Sa6ara and t6e ,rabian desert, t6e bro(n-)reen o& &orest and
)rassland$
,nd 7et t6ere is no si)n o& 68mans in t6is pit8re, not o8r re(orkin) o& t6e Eart6As
s8r&ae, not o8r ma6ines, not o8rsel'es: *e are too small and o8r statera&t is too &eeble to be
seen b7 a spaera&t bet(een t6e Eart6 and t6e 5oon$ %rom t6is 'anta)e point, o8r obsession
(it6 nationalism is no(6ere in e'idene$ 36e ,pollo pit8res o& t6e (6ole Eart6 on'e7ed to
m8ltit8des somet6in) (ell kno(n to astronomers: 2n t6e sale o& (orldsGto sa7 not6in) o& stars
or )alaCiesG68mans are inonseK8ential, a t6in &ilm o& li&e on an obs8re and solitar7 l8mp o&
rok and metal$
It seemed to me t6at anot6er pit8re o& t6e Eart6, t6is one taken &rom a 68ndred t6o8sand
times &art6er a(a7, mi)6t 6elp in t6e ontin8in) proess o& re'ealin) to o8rsel'es o8r tr8e
ir8mstane and ondition$ It 6ad been (ell 8nderstood b7 t6e sientists and p6ilosop6ers o&
lassial antiK8it7 t6at t6e Eart6 (as a mere point in a 'ast enompassin) +osmos, b8t no one
6ad e'er seen it as s86$ 4ere (as o8r &irst 6ane =and per6aps also o8r last &or deades to
ome<$
5an7 in N,S,As Vo$ager 0roHet (ere s8pporti'e$ B8t &rom t6e o8ter Solar S7stem t6e
Eart6 lies 'er7 near t6e S8n, like a mot6 ent6ralled aro8nd a &lame$ !id (e (ant to aim t6e
amera so lose to t6e S8n as to risk b8rnin) o8t t6e spaera&tAs 'idion s7stemD *o8ldnAt it be
better to dela7 8ntil all t6e sienti&i ima)es &rom 1ran8s and Nept8ne, i& t6e spaera&t lasted
t6at lon), (ere takenD
,nd so (e (aitedG and a )ood t6in) tooG&rom 19;1 at Sat8rn, to 19;6 at 1ran8s, to
19;9, (6en bot6 spaera&t 6ad passed t6e orbits o& Nept8ne and 0l8to$ ,t last t6e time ame B8t
t6ere (ere a &e( instr8mental alibrations t6at needed to be done &irst, and (e (aited a little
lon)er$ ,lt6o8)6 t6e spaera&t (ere in t6e ri)6t spots, t6e instr8ments (ere still (orkin)
bea8ti&8ll7, and t6ere (ere no ot6er pit8res to take, a &e( proHet personnel opposed it$ It (asnAt
siene, t6e7 said$ 36en (e diso'ered t6at t6e te6niians (6o de'ise and transmit t6e radio
ommands to Vo$ager (ere, in a as6-strapped N,S,, to be laid o&& immediatel7 or trans&erred
to ot6er Hobs$ I& t6e pit8re (ere to be taken, it 6ad to be done ri)6t t6en$ ,t t6e last min8te
at8all7, in t6e midst o& t6e Vo$ager 2 eno8nter (it6 Nept8ne, t6e t6en N,S, ,dministrator,
-ear ,dmiral -i6ard 3r8l7, stepped in and made s8re t6at t6ese ima)es (ere obtained$ 36e
11
spae sientists +and7 4ansen o& N,S,As >et 0rop8lsion .aborator7 =>0.< and +arol7n 0oro o&
1ni'ersit7 o& ,riIona desi)ned t6e ommand seK8ene and al8lated t6e amera eCpos8re times$
So 6ere t6e7 areGa mosai o& sK8ares laid do(n on top o& t6e planets and a bak)ro8nd
smatterin) o& more distant stars$ *e (ere able to p6oto)rap6 not onl7 t6e Eart6, b8t also &i'e
ot6er o& t6e S8nAs nine kno(n planets$ 5er8r7, t6e innermost, (as lost in t6e )lare o& t6e S8n,
and 5ars and 0l8to (ere too small, too diml7 lit, andNor too &ar a(a7$ 1ran8s and Nept8ne are so
dim t6at to reord t6eir presene reK8ired lon) eCpos8res? aordin)l7, t6eir ima)es (ere smeared
bea8se o& spaera&t motion$ 36is is 6o( t6e planets (o8ld look to an alien spaes6ip
approa6in) t6e Solar S7stem a&ter a lon) interstellar 'o7a)e$
%rom t6is distane t6e planets seem onl7 points o& li)6t, smeared or 8nsmearedGe'en
t6ro8)6 t6e 6i)6-resol8tion telesope aboard Vo$ager$ 36e7 are like t6e planets seen (it6 t6e
naked e7e &rom t6e s8r&ae o& t6e Eart6Gl8mino8s dots, bri)6ter t6an most o& t6e stars$ 2'er a
period o& mont6s t6e Eart6, like t6e ot6er planets, (o8ld seem to mo'e amon) t6e stars$ :o8
annot tell merel7 b7 lookin) at one o& t6ese dots (6at itAs like, (6atAs on it, (6at its past 6as
been, and (6et6er, n t6is parti8lar epo6, an7one li'es t6ere$
Bea8se o& t6e re&letion o& s8nli)6t o&& t6e spaera&t, t6e Eart6 seems to be sittin) in a
beam o& li)6t, as i& t6ere (ere some speial si)ni&iane to t6is small (orld$ B8t itAs H8st an
aident o& )eometr7 and optis$ 36e S8n emits its radiation eK8itabl7 in all diretions$ 4ad t6e
pit8re been taken a little earlier or a little later, t6ere (o8ld 6a'e been no s8nbeam 6i)6li)6tin)
t6e Eart6$
,nd (67 t6at er8lean olorD 36e bl8e omes partl7 &rom t6e sea, partl7 &rom t6e sk7$ *6ile
(ater in a )lass is transparent, It absorbs sli)6tl7 more red li)6t t6an bl8e$ I& 7o8 6a'e tens o&
meters o& t6e st8&& or more, t6e red li)6t is absorbed o8t and (6at )ets re&leted bak to spae is
mainl7 bl8e$ In t6e same (a7, a s6ort line o& si)6t t6ro8)6 air seems per&etl7 transparent$
Ne'ert6elessGsomet6in) .eonardo da #ini eCelled at portra7in)Gt6e more distant t6e obHet,
t6e bl8er it seems$ *67D Bea8se t6e air satters bl8e li)6t aro8nd m86 better t6an it does red$
So t6e bl8is6 ast o& t6is dot omes &rom its t6ik b8t transparent atmosp6ere and its deep oeans
o& liK8id (ater$ ,nd t6e (6iteD 36e Eart6 on an a'era)e da7 is abo8t 6al& o'ered (it6 (6ite
(ater lo8ds$
*e an eCplain t6e (an bl8eness o& t6is little (orld bea8se (e kno( it (ell$ *6et6er an
alien sientist ne(l7 arri'ed at t6e o8tskirts o& o8r solar s7stem o8ld reliabl7 ded8e oeans and
lo8ds and a t6ikis6 atmosp6ere is less ertain$ Nept8ne, &or instane, is bl8e, b8t 6ie&l7 &or
di&&erent reasons$ %rom t6is distant 'anta)e point, t6e Eart6 mi)6t not seem o& an7 parti8lar
interest$
B8t &or 8s, itAs di&&erent$ .ook a)ain at t6at dot$ 36atAs 6ere$ 36atAs 6ome$ 36atAs 8s$ 2n it
e'er7one 7o8 lo'e, e'er7one 7o8 kno(, e'er7one 7o8 e'er 6eard o&, e'er7 68man bein) (6o e'er
(as, li'ed o8t t6eir li'es$ 36e a))re)ate o& o8r Ho7 and s8&&erin), t6o8sands o& on&ident
reli)ions, ideolo)ies, and eonomi dotrines, e'er7 68nter and &ora)er, e'er7 6ero and o(ard,
e'er7 reator and destro7er o& i'iliIation, e'er kin) and peasant, e'er7 7o8n) o8ple in lo'e,
e'er7 mot6 and &at6er, 6ope&8l 6ild, in'entor and eCplorer, e'er7 tea6er o& morals, e'er7
orr8pt politiian, e'er7 Bs8perstar,O e'er7 Bs8preme leader,B e'er7 saint and sinner in t6e 6istor7
o& o8r speies li'ed t6ereGon a mote o& d8st s8spended in a s8nbeam$
1"
36e Eart6 is a 'er7 small sta)e in a 'ast osmi arena$ 36ink o& t6e ri'ers o& blood spilled b7
all t6ose )enerals and emperors so t6at, in )lor7 and tri8mp6, t6e7 o8ld beome momentar7
masters o& a &ration o& a dot$ 36ink o& t6e endless 'isited b7 t6e in6abitants o& one orner o& t6is
piCel t6e sarel7 distin)8is6able in6abitants o& some ot6er orner, 6o( &reK8ent t6eir
mis8nderstandin)s, 6o( ea)er t6e7 are to kill one anot6er, 6o( &er'ent t6eir 6atreds$
28r post8rin)s, o8r ima)ined sel&-importane, t6e del8sion t6at (e 6a'e some pri'ile)ed
position in t6e 1ni'erse, are 6allen)ed b7 t6is point o& pale li)6t$ 28r planet is a lonel7 spek in
t6e )reat en'elopin) osmi dark$ In o8r obs8rit7, in all t6is 'astness, t6ere is no 6int t6at 6elp
(ill ome &rom else(6ere to sa'e 8s &rom o8rsel'es$
36e Eart6 is t6e onl7 (orld kno(n so &ar to 6arbor li&e$ 36ere is no(6ere else, at least in t6e
near &8t8re, to (6i6 o8r speies o8ld mi)rate$ #isit, 7es$ Settle, not 7et$ .ike it or not, &or t6e
moment t6e Eart6 is (6ere (e make o8r stand$
It 6as been said t6at astronom7 is a 68mblin) and 6arater-b8ildin) eCperiene$ 36ere is
per6aps no better demonstration o& t6e &oll7 o& 68man oneits t6an t6is distant ima)e o& o8r tin7
(orld$ 3o me, it 8ndersores o8r responsibilit7 to deal more kindl7 (it6 one anot6er, and to
preser'e and 6eris6 t6e pale bl8e dot, t6e onl7 6ome (eA'e e'er kno(n$


13
+ 4 , 0 3 E - "
ABBERATIONS
OF LIGHT

I& man (ere taken a(a7 &rom t6e (orld, t6e rest (o8ld seem to be all astra7,
(it6o8t aim or p8rpose $ $ $ and to be leadin) to not6in)$
G%-,N+IS B,+2N, WISDOM OF THE ANCIENTS (1619)
Ann !r87an s8))ests an eCperiment: .ook bak a)ain at t6e pale bl8e dot o& t6e preedin)
6apter$ 3ake a )ood lon) look at it$ Stare at t6e dot &or an7 len)t6 o& time and t6en tr7 to
on'ine 7o8rsel& t6at /od reated t6e (6ole 1ni'erse &or one o& t6e 10 million or so speies o&
li&e t6at in6abit t6at spek o& d8st$ No( take it a step &8rt6er: Ima)ine t6at e'er7t6in) (as made
H8st &or a sin)le s6ade o& t6at speies, or )ender, or et6ni or reli)io8s s8bdi'ision$ I& t6is doesnAt
strike 7o8 as 8nlikel7, pik anot6er dot$ Ima)ine it to be in6abited b7 a di&&erent &orm o&
intelli)ent li&e$ 36e7, too, 6eris6 t6e notion o& a /od (6o 6as reated e'er7t6in) &or t6eir
bene&it$ 4o( serio8sl7 do 7o8 take t6eir laimD
PSEE 34,3 S3,-DB
B:o8 mean t6e bri)6t red oneDB 6is da8)6ter asks in ret8rn$
B:es$ :o8 kno(, it mi)6t not be t6ere an7more$ It mi)6t be )one b7 no(GeCploded or
somet6in)$ Its li)6t is still rossin) spae, H8st rea6in) o8r e7es no($ B8t (e donAt see it as it is$
*e see it as it (as$B
5an7 people eCperiene a stirrin) sense o& (onder (6en t6e7 &irst on&ront t6is simple
tr8t6$ *67D *67 s6o8ld it be so ompellin)D 2n o8r little (orld li)6t tra'els, &or all pratial
p8rposes, instantaneo8sl7$ I& a li)6tb8lb is )lo(in), t6en o& o8rse itAs p67siall7 (6ere (e see it,
s6inin) a(a7$ *e rea6 o8t o8r 6and and to86 it: ItAs t6ere all ri)6t, and 8npleasantl7 6ot$ I& t6e
&ilament &ails, t6en t6e li)6t )oes o8t$ *e donAt see it in t6e same plae, )lo(in), ill8minatin) t6e
room 7ears a&ter t6e b8lb breaks and itAs remo'ed &rom its soket$ 36e 'er7 notion seems
nonsensial$ B8t i& (eAre &ar eno8)6 a(a7, an entire s8n an )o o8t and (eAll ontin8e to see it
s6inin) bri)6tl7? (e (onAt learn o& its deat6, it ma7 be, &or a)es to omeGin &at, &or 6o( lon) it
takes li)6t, (6i6 tra'els &ast b8t not in&initel7 &ast, to ross t6e inter'enin) 'astness$
36e immense distanes to t6e stars and t6e )alaCies mean t6at (e see e'er7t6in) in spae
in t6e pastGsome as t6e7 (ere be&ore t6e Eart6 ame to be$ 3elesopes are time ma6ines$ .on)
a)o, (6en an earl7 )alaC7 be)an to po8r li)6t o8t into t6e s8rro8ndin) darkness, no (itness o8ld
6a'e kno(n t6at billions o& 7ears later some remote l8mps o& rok and metal, ie and or)ani
mole8les (o8ld &all to)et6er to make a plae alled Eart6? or t6at li&e (o8ld arise and t6inkin)
14
bein)s e'ol'e (6o (o8ld one da7 apt8re a little o& t6at )alati li)6t, and tr7 to p8IIle o8t (6at
6ad sent it on its (a7$
,nd a&ter t6e Eart6 dies, some 5 billion 7ears &rom no(, a&ter it is b8rned to a risp or
e'en s(allo(ed b7 t6e S8n, t6ere (ill be ot6er (orlds and stars and )alaCies omin) into bein)G
and t6e7 (ill kno( not6in) o& a plae one alled Eart6$
IT ALMOST NEVER FEELS like preH8die$ Instead, it seems &ittin) and H8stGt6e idea t6at, bea8se
o& an aident o& birt6, o8r )ro8p =(6i6e'er one it is< s6o8ld 6a'e a entral position in t6e soial
8ni'erse$ ,mon) 06araoni prinelin)s and 0lanta)enet pretenders, 6ildren o& robber barons and
+entral +ommittee b8rea8rats, street )an)s and onK8erors o& nations, members o& on&ident
maHorities, obs8re sets, and re'iled minorities, t6is sel&-ser'in) attit8de seems as nat8ral as
breat6in)$ It dra(s s8stenane &rom t6e same ps76i (ellsprin)s as seCism, raism, nationalism,
and t6e ot6er deadl7 6a8'inisms t6at pla)8e o8r speies$ 1nommon stren)t6 o& 6arater is
needed to resist t6e blandis6ments o& t6ose (6o ass8re 8s t6at (e 6a'e an ob'io8s, e'en /od-
)i'en, s8periorit7 o'er o8r &ello(s$ 36e more preario8s o8r sel&-esteem, t6e )reater o8r
'8lnerabilit7 to s86 appeals$
Sine sientists are people, it is not s8rprisin) t6at omparable pretensions 6a'e
insin8ated t6emsel'es into t6e sienti&i (orld'ie($ Indeed, man7 o& t6e entral debates in t6e
6istor7 o& siene seem to be, in part at least, ontests o'er (6et6er 68mans are speial$ ,lmost
al(a7s, t6e )oin)-in ass8mption is t6at (e are speial$ ,&ter t6e premise is losel7 eCamined,
t6o8)6, it t8rns o8tGin dis6eartenin)l7 man7 asesGt6at (e are not$
28r anestors li'ed o8t o& doors$ 36e7 (ere as &amiliar (it6 t6e ni)6t sk7 as most o& 8s
are (it6 o8r &a'orite tele'ision pro)rams$ 36e S8n, t6e 5oon, t6e stars, and t6e planets all rose in
t6e east and set in t6e (est, tra'ersin) t6e sk7 o'er6ead in t6e interim$ 36e motion o& t6e
6ea'enl7 bodies (as not merel7 a di'ersion, eliitin) a re'erential nod and )r8nt? it (as t6e onl7
(a7 to tell t6e time o& da7 and t6e seasons$ %or 68nters and )at6erers, as (ell as &or a)ri8lt8ral
peoples, kno(in) abo8t t6e sk7 (as a matter o& li&e and deat6$
4o( l8k7 &or 8s t6at t6e S8n, t6e 5oon, t6e planets, and t6e stars are part o& some
ele)antl7 on&i)8red osmi lok(orkF It seemed to be no aident$ 36e7 (ere p8t 6ere &or a
p8rpose, &or o8r bene&it$ *6o else makes 8se o& t6emD *6at else are t6e7 )ood &orD
,nd i& t6e li)6ts in t6e sk7 rise and set aro8nd 8s, isnAt it e'ident t6at (eAre at t6e enter
o& t6e 1ni'erseD 36ese elestial bodiesGso learl7 s8&&8sed (it6 8neart6l7 po(ers, espeiall7 t6e
S8n on (6i6 (e depend &or li)6t and 6eatGirle 8s like o8rtiers &a(nin) on a kin)$ E'en i&
(e 6ad not alread7 )8essed, t6e most elementar7 eCamination o& t6e 6ea'ens re'eals t6at (e are
speial$ 36e 1ni'erse seems desi)ned &or 68man bein)s$ ItAs di&&i8lt to ontemplate t6ese
ir8mstanes (it6o8t eCperienin) stirrin)s o& pride and reass8rane$ 36e entire 1ni'erse, made
&or 8sF *e m8st reall7 be somet6in)$
36is satis&7in) demonstration o& o8r importane, b8ttressed b7 dail7 obser'ations o& t6e
6ea'ens, made t6e )eoentrist oneit a trans8lt8ral tr8t6Gta8)6t in t6e s6ools, b8ilt into t6e
lan)8a)e, part and parel o& )reat literat8re and sared sript8re$ !issenters (ere diso8ra)ed,
sometimes (it6 tort8re and deat6$ It is no (onder t6at &or t6e 'ast b8lk o& 68man 6istor7, no one
K8estioned it$
15
It (as do8btless t6e 'ie( o& o8r &ora)in) and 68ntin) anestors$ 36e )reat astronomer o&
antiK8it7, +la8di8s 0tolemae8s =0tolem7<, in t6e seond ent8r7 kne( t6at t6e Eart6 (as a
sp6ere, kne( t6at its siIe (as Ba pointB ompared to t6e distane o& t6e stars, and ta8)6t t6at it la7
Bri)6t in t6e middle o& t6e 6ea'ens$B ,ristotle, 0lato, St$ ,8)8stine, St$ 36omas ,K8inas, and
almost all t6e )reat p6ilosop6ers and sientists o& all 8lt8res o'er t6e 3,000 7ears endin) in t6e
se'enteent6 ent8r7 bo8)6t into t6is del8sion$ Some b8sied t6emsel'es &i)8rin) o8t 6o( t6e S8n,
t6e 5oon, t6e stars, and t6e planets o8ld be 8nnin)l7 atta6ed to per&etl7 transparent,
r7stalline sp6eresGt6e bi) sp6eres, o& o8rse, entered on t6e Eart6Gt6at (o8ld eCplain t6e
ompleC motions o& t6e elestial bodies so meti8lo8sl7 6roniled b7 )enerations o&
astronomers$ ,nd t6e7 s8eeded: *it6 later modi&iations, t6e )eoentri 67pot6esis adeK8atel7
ao8nted &or t6e &ats o& planetar7 motion as kno(n in t6e seond ent8r7, and in t6e siCteent6$
%rom t6ere it (as onl7 a sli)6t eCtrapolation to an e'en more )randiose laimGt6at t6e
Bper&etionB o& t6e (orld (o8ld be inomplete (it6o8t 68mans, as 0lato asserted in t6e 3imae8s$
B5an $ $ $ is all,B t6e poet and leri >o6n !onne (rote in 16"5$ B4e is not a piee o& t6e (orld,
b8t t6e (orld itsel&? and neCt to t6e )lor7 o& /od, t6e reason (67 t6ere is a (orld$B
,nd 7etGne'er mind 6o( man7 kin)s, popes, p6ilosop6ers, sientists, and poets insisted
on t6e ontrar7Gt6e Eart6 t6ro8)6 t6ose millennia st8bbornl7 persisted in orbitin) t6e S8n$ :o8
mi)6t ima)ine an 8n6aritable eCtraterrestrial obser'er lookin) do(n on o8r speies o'er all t6at
timeG(it6 8s eCitedl7 6atterin), B36e 1ni'erse is reated &or 8sF *eAre at t6e enterF
E'er7t6in) pa7s 6oma)e to 8sFBGand onl8din) t6at o8r pretensions are am8sin), o8r
aspirations pat6eti, t6at t6is m8st be t6e planet o& t6e idiots$
B8t s86 a H8d)ment is too 6ars6$ *e did t6e best (e o8ld$ 36ere (as an 8nl8k7
oinidene bet(een e'er7da7 appearanes and o8r seret 6opes$ *e tend not to be espeiall7
ritial (6en presented (it6 e'idene t6at seems to on&irm o8r preH8dies$ ,nd t6ere (as little
o8nter'ailin) e'idene$
In m8ted o8nterpoint, a &e( dissentin) 'oies, o8nselin) 68milit7 and perspeti'e,
o8ld be 6eard do(n t6ro8)6 t6e ent8ries$ ,t t6e da(n o& siene, t6e atomist p6ilosop6ers o&
anient /reee and -omeG t6ose (6o &irst s8))ested t6at matter is made o& atomsG!emorit8s,
Epi8r8s, and t6eir &ollo(ers =and .8reti8s, t6e &irst pop8lariIer o& siene< sandalo8sl7
proposed man7 (orlds and man7 alien li&e &orms, all made o& t6e same kinds o& atoms as (e$
36e7 o&&ered &or o8r onsideration in&inities in spae and time$ B8t in t6e pre'ailin) anons o& t6e
*est, se8lar and saerdotal, pa)an and +6ristian, atomist ideas (ere re'iled$ Instead, t6e
6ea'ens (ere not at all like o8r (orld$ 36e7 (ere 8nalterable and Bper&et$B 36e Eart6 (as
m8table and Borr8pt$B 36e -oman statesman and p6ilosop6er +iero s8mmariIed t6e ommon
'ie(: BIn t6e 6ea'ens $ $ $ t6ere is not6in) o& 6ane or 6aIard, no error, no &r8stration, b8t
absol8te order, a8ra7, al8lation and re)8larit7$B
06ilosop67 and reli)ion a8tioned t6at t6e )ods =or /od< (ere &ar more po(er&8l t6an
(e, Healo8s o& t6eir prero)ati'es and K8ik to mete o8t H8stie &or ins8&&erable arro)ane$ ,t t6e
same time, t6ese disiplines 6ad not a l8e t6at t6eir o(n tea6in) o& 6o( t6e 1ni'erse is ordered
(as a oneit and a del8sion$
06ilosop67 and reli)ion presented mere opinionGopinion t6at mi)6t be o'ert8rned b7
obser'ation and eCperimentGas ertaint7$ 36is (orried t6em not at all$ 36at some o& t6eir deepl7
6eld belie&s mi)6t t8rn o8t to be mistakes (as a possibilit7 6ardl7 onsidered$ !otrinal 68milit7
16
(as to be pratied b7 ot6ers$ 36eir o(n tea6in)s (ere inerrant and In&allible$ In tr8t6, t6e7 6ad
better reason to be 68mble t6an t6e7 kne($
BEGINNING WITH COPERNICUS in t6e middle siCteent6 ent8r7, t6e iss8e (as &ormall7 Hoined$
36e pit8re o& t6e S8n rat6er t6an t6e Eart6 at t6e enter o& t6e 1ni'erse (as 8nderstood to be
dan)ero8s$ 2bli)in)l7, man7 s6olars (ere K8ik to ass8re t6e reli)io8s 6ierar67 t6at t6is
ne(&an)led 67pot6esis represented no serio8s 6allen)e to on'entional (isdom$ In a kind o&
split-brain ompromise, t6e S8n-entered s7stem (as treated as a mere omp8tational
on'eniene, not an astronomial realit7 t6at is, t6e Eart6 (as reall7 at t6e enter o& t6e 1ni'erse,
as e'er7bod7 kne(? b8t i& 7o8 (is6ed to predit (6ere >8piter (o8ld be on t6e seond 38esda7
o& No'ember t6e 7ear a&ter neCt, 7o8 (ere permitted to pretend t6at t6e S8n (as at t6e enter$
36en 7o8 o8ld al8late a(a7 and not a&&ront t6e ,8t6orities$
1
B36is 6as no dan)er in it,B (rote -obert +ardinal Bellarmine, t6e &oremost #atian
t6eolo)ian in t6e earl7 se'enteent6 ent8r7,

and s8&&ies &or t6e mat6ematiians$ B8t, to a&&irm t6at t6e S8n is reall7 &iCed in t6e enter
o& t6e 6ea'ens and t6at t6e Eart6 re'ol'es 'er7 s(i&tl7 aro8nd t6e S8n is a dan)ero8s
t6in), not onl7 irritatin) t6e t6eolo)ians and p6ilosop6ers, b8t inH8rin) o8r 6ol7 &ait6 and
makin) t6e sared sript8re &alse$B
B%reedom o& belie& is perniio8s,B Bellarmine (rote on anot6er oasion$ BIt is not6in) b8t t6e
&reedom to be (ron)$B
Besides, i& t6e Eart6 (as )oin) aro8nd t6e S8n, nearb7 stars s6o8ld seem to mo'e a)ainst
t6e bak)ro8nd o& more distant stars as, e'er7 siC mont6s, (e s6i&t o8r perspeti'e &rom one side
o& t6e Eart6As orbit to t6e ot6er$ No s86 Bann8al parallaCB 6ad been &o8nd$ 36e +opernians
ar)8ed t6at t6is (as bea8se t6e stars (ere eCtremel7 &ar a(a7Gma7be a million times more
distant t6an t6e Eart6 is &rom t6e S8n$ 0er6aps better telesopes, in &8t8re times, (o8ld &ind an
ann8al parallaC$ 36e )eoentrists onsidered t6is a desperate attempt to sa'e a &la(ed 67pot6esis,
and l8diro8s on t6e &ae o& it$
*6en /alileo t8rned t6e &irst astronomial telesope to t6e sk7, t6e tide be)an to t8rn$ 4e
diso'ered t6at >8piter 6ad a little retin8e o& moons irlin) it, t6e inner ones orbitin) &aster t6an
t6e o8ter ones, H8st as +operni8s 6ad ded8ed &or t6e motion o& t6e planets abo8t t6e S8n$ 4e
&o8nd t6at 5er8r7 and #en8s (ent t6ro8)6 p6ases like t6e 5oon =s6o(in) t6e7 orbited t6e
S8n<$ 5oreo'er, t6e ratered 5oon and t6e spotted S8n 6allen)ed t6e per&etion o& t6e 6ea'ens$
36is ma7 in part onstit8te t6e sort o& tro8ble 3ert8llian (as (orried abo8t t6irteen 68ndred 7ears
earlier, (6en 6e pleaded, BI& 7o8 6a'e an7 sense or modest7, 6a'e done (it6 pr7in) into t6e
re)ions o& t6e sk7, into t6e destin7 and serets o& t6e 8ni'erse$B
1
+operni8sA &amo8s book (as &irst p8blis6ed (it6 an introd8tion b7 t6e t6eolo)ian ,ndre( 2siander, inserted (it6o8t t6e
kno(led)e o& t6e d7in) astronomer$ 2sianderAs (ell-meanin) attempt to reonile reli)ion and +opernian astronom7 ended (it6
t6ese (ords: BQ.Ret no one eCpet an7t6in) in t6e (a7 o& ertaint7 o& astronom7, sine astronom7 an o&&er 8s not6in) ertain, lest, i&
an7one take as tr8e t6at (6i6 6as been onstr8ted &or $mot6er 8se, 6e )o a(a7 &rom t6is disipline a bi))er &ool t6an ( 6en 6e ane
to it$B +ertaint7 o8ld be &o8nd onl7 in reli)ion$
17
In ontrast, /alileo ta8)6t t6at (e an interro)ate Nat8re b7 obser'ation and eCperiment$
36en, B&ats (6i6 at &irst si)6t seem improbable (ill, e'en on sant eCplanation, drop t6e loak
(6i6 6ad 6idden t6em and stand &ort6 in naked and simple bea8t7$B ,re not t6ese &ats, a'ailable
e'en &or skeptis to
on&irm, a s8rer insi)6t into /odAs 1ni'erse t6an all t6e spe8lations o& t6e t6eolo)iansD B8t (6at
i& t6ese &ats ontradit t6e belie&s o& t6ose (6o 6old t6eir reli)ion inapable o& makin) mistakesD
36e prines o& t6e +68r6 t6reatened t6e a)ed astronomer (it6 tort8re i& 6e persisted in tea6in)
t6e abominable dotrine t6at t6e Eart6 mo'ed$ 4e (as sentened to a kind o& 6o8se arrest &or t6e
remainder o& 6is li&e$
, )eneration or t(o later, b7 t6e time Isaa Ne(ton demonstrated t6at simple and ele)ant
p67sis o8ld K8antitati'el7 eCplainGand preditGall t6e obser'ed l8nar and planetar7 motions
=pro'ided 7o8 ass8med t6e S8n at t6e enter o& t6e Solar S7stem<, t6e )eoentrist oneit eroded
&8rt6er$
In 17"5, in an attempt to diso'er stellar parallaC, t6e painstakin) En)lis6 amate8r
astronomer >ames Bradle7 st8mbled on t6e aberration o& li)6t$ 36e term Baberration,B I s8ppose,
on'e7s somet6in) o& t6e 8neCpetedness o& t6e diso'er7$ *6en obser'ed o'er t6e o8rse o& a
7ear, stars (ere &o8nd to trae little ellipses a)ainst t6e sk7$ B8t all t6e stars (ere &o8nd to do so$
36is o8ld not be stellar parallaC, (6ere (e (o8ld eCpet a bi) parallaC &or nearb7 stars and an
indetetible one &or &ara(a7 stars$ Instead, aberration is similar to 6o( raindrop &allin) diretl7
do(n on a speedin) a8to seem to t6e passen)er, to be &allin) at a slant? t6e &aster t6e ar )oes, t6e
steeper t6e slant$ I& t6e Eart6 (ere stationar7 at t6e enter o& t6e 1ni'erse$ and not speedin) in its
orbit aro8nd t6e S8n, Bradle7 (o8ld nor 6a'e &o8nd t6e aberration o& li)6t$ It (as a ompellin)
demonstration t6at t6e Eart6 re'ol'ed abo8t t6e S8n$ It on'ined most astronomers and some
ot6ers b8t not, Bradle7 t6o8)6t, t6e B,nti-+opernians$B
B8t not 8ntil 1;37 did diret obser'ations o& t6e stars pro'e in t6e learest (a7 t6at t6e
Eart6 is indeed irlin) t6e S8n$ 36e lon)-debated ann8al parallaC (as at last diso'eredGnot b7
better ar)8ments, b8t b7 better instr8ments$ Bea8se eCplainin) (6at it means is m86 more
strai)6t&or(ard t6an eCplainin) t6e aberration o& li)6t, its diso'er7 (as 'er7 important$ It
po8nded t6e &inal nail into t6e o&&in o& )eoentrism$ :o8 need onl7 look at 7o8r &in)er (it6 7o8r
le&t e7e and t6en (it6 7o8r ri)6t and see it seem to mo'e$ E'er7one an 8nderstand parallaC$
B7 t6e nineteent6 ent8r7, all sienti&i )eoentrists 6ad been on'erted or rendered
eCtint$ 2ne most sientists 6ad been on'ined, in&ormed p8bli opinion 6ad s(i&tl7 6an)ed,
in some o8ntries in a mere t6ree or &o8r )enerations$ 2& o8rse, in t6e time o& /alileo and
Ne(ton and e'en m86 later, t6ere (ere still some (6o obHeted, (6o tried to pre'ent t6e ne(
S8n-entered 1ni'erse &rom beomin) aepted, or e'en kno(n$ ,nd t6ere (ere man7 (6o at
least 6arbored seret reser'ations$
B7 t6e late t(entiet6 ent8r7, H8st in ase t6ere (ere an7 6oldo8ts, (e 6a'e been able to
settle t6e matter diretl7$ *eA'e been able to test (6et6er (e li'e in an Eart6-entered s7stem
(it6 planets a&&iCed to transparent r7stal sp6eres, or in a S8n-entered s7stem (it6 planets
ontrolled at a distane b7 t6e )ra'it7 o& t6e S8n$ *e 6a'e, &or eCample, probed t6e planets (it6
radar$ *6en (e bo8ne a si)nal o&& a moon o& Sat8rn, (e reei'e no radio e6o &rom a nearer
r7stal sp6ere atta6ed to >8piter$ 28r spaera&t arri'e at t6eir appointed destinations (it6
astonis6in) preision, eCatl7 as predited b7 Ne(tonian )ra'itation$ *6en o8r s6ips &l7 to 5ars,
1;
sa7, t6eir instr8ments do not 6ear a tinklin) so8nd or detet s6ards o& broken r7stal as t6e7 ras6
t6ro8)6 t6e Bsp6eresB t6atGaordin) to t6e a8t6oritati'e opinions t6at pre'ailed &or millenniaG
propel #en8s or t6e S8n ill t6eir d8ti&8l motions abo8t t6e entral Eart6$
*6en Vo$ager 1 sanned t6e Solar S7stem &rom be7ond t6e o8termost planet, it sa(, H8st as
+operni8s and /alileo 6ad said (e (o8ld, t6e S8n in t6e middle and t6e planets in onentri
orbits abo8t it$ %ar &rom bein) t6e enter o& t6e 1ni'erse, t6e Eart6 is H8st one o& t6e orbitin) dots$
No lon)er on&ined to a sin)le (orld, (e are no( able to rea6 o8t to ot6ers and determine
deisi'el7 (6at kind o& planetar7 s7stem (e in6abit$
EVERY OTHER PROPOSAL, and t6eir n8mber is le)ion, to displae 8s &rom osmi enter sta)e
6as also been resisted, in part &or similar reasons$ *e seem to ra'e pri'ile)e, merited not b7 o8r
(ork, b8t b7 o8r birt6, b7 t6e mere &at t6at, sa7, (e are 68mans and born on Eart6$ *e mi)6t
all it t6e ant6ropoentriGt6e B68man-enteredBGoneit$
36is oneit is bro8)6t lose to 8lmination in t6e notion t6at (e are reated in /odAs ima)e:
36e +reator and -8ler o& t6e entire 1ni'erse looks H8st like me$ 57, (6at a oinidene 4o(
on'enient and satis&7in)F 36e siCt6-ent8r7-B$+$ /reen p6ilosop6er 9enop6anes 8nderstood t6e
arro)ane o& t6e perspeti'e:
B36e Et6iopians make t6eir )ods blak and sn8b-nosed? t6e 36raians sa7
t6eirs 6a'e bl8e e7es and red 6air $ $ $ :es, and i& oCen and 6orses or lions
6ad 6ands, and o8ld paint (it6 t6eir 6ands, and prod8e (orks o& art as
men do, 6orses (o8ld paint t6e &orms o& t6e )ods like 6orses, and oCen
like oCen $ $ $B
S86 attit8des (ere one desribed as Bpro'inialBGt6e nai'e eCpetation t6at t6e politial
6ierar6ies and soial on'entions o& an obs8re pro'ine eCtend to a 'ast empire omposed o&
man7 di&&erent traditions and 8lt8res? t6at t6e &amiliar boondoks, our boondoks, are t6e enter
o& t6e (orld$ 36e o8ntr7 b8mpkins kno( almost not6in) abo8t (6at else is possible$ 36e7 &ail to
)rasp t6e insi)ni&iane o& t6eir pro'ine or t6e di'ersit7 o& t6e Empire$ *it6 ease, t6e7 appl7
t6eir o(n standards and 8stoms to t6e rest o& t6e planet$ B8t plopped do(n in #ienna, sa7, or
4amb8r), or Ne( :ork, r8e&8ll7 t6e7 reo)niIe 6o( limited t6eir perspeti'e 6as been$ 36e7
beome Bdepro'inialiIed$B
5odern siene 6as been a 'o7a)e into t6e 8nkno(n, (it6 a lesson in 68milit7 (aitin) at
e'er7 stop$ 5an7 passen)ers (o8ld rat6er 6a'e sta7ed 6ome$
19
+ 4 , 0 3 E - 3
34E
/-E,3
!E523I2NS

Q2ne p6ilosop6erR asserted t6at 6e kne( t6e (6ole seret $ $ $ Q4Re s8r'e7ed
t6e t(o elestial stran)ers &rom top to toe, and maintained to t6eir &aes t6at
t6eir persons, t6eir (orlds, t6eir s8ns, and t6eir stars, (ere reated solel7 &or
t6e 8se o& man$ ,t t6is assertion o8r t(o tra'elers let t6emsel'es &all a)ainst
ea6 ot6er, seiIed (it6 a &it o& $ $ $ ineCtin)8is6able la8)6ter$
--#2.3,I-E, M!#-OME%AS3 A P1!&OSOP1!#A& 1!S/O-, (1*52)
In t6e se'enteent6 ent8r7 t6ere (as still some 6ope t6at, e'en i& t6e Eart6 (as not t6e enter o&
t6e 1ni'erse, it mi)6t be t6e onl7 B(orld$B B8t /alileoAs telesope re'ealed t6at Bt6e 5oon
ertainl7 does not possess a smoot6 and polis6ed s8r&aeB and t6at ot6er (orlds mi)6t look BH8st
like t6e &ae o& t6e Eart6 itsel&$B 36e 5oon and t6e planets s6o(ed 8nmistakabl7 t6at t6e7 6ad as
m86 laim to bein) (orlds as t6e Eart6 doesG(it6 mo8ntains, raters, atmosp6eres, polar ie
aps, lo8ds, and, in t6e ase o& Sat8rn, a daIIlin), 8n6eard-o& set o& ir8m&erential rin)s$ ,&ter
millennia o& p6ilosop6ial debate, t6e iss8e (as settled deisi'el7 in &a'or o& Bt6e pl8ralit7 o&
(orlds$B 36e7 mi)6t be pro&o8ndl7 di&&erent &rom o8r planet$ None o& t6em mi)6t be as
on)enial &or li&e$ B8t t6e Eart6 (as 6ardl7 t6e onl7 one$
36is (as t6e neCt in t6e series o& /reat !emotions, do(nli&tin) eCperienes,
demonstrations o& o8r apparent insi)ni&iane, (o8nds t6at siene 6as, in its sear6 &or /alileoAs
&ats, deli'ered to 68man pride$
WELL, SOME HOPED, e4en i5 "(e Ear"( in6" a" "(e 7en"er o5 "(e 8ni4ere9 "(e Sun i3 /(e Sun i
our Sun3 So "(e Ear"( i approxima"el$ a" "(e 7en"er o5 "(e 8ni4ere$ 0er6aps some o& o8r pride
o8ld in t6is (a7 be sal'a)ed$ B8t b7 t6e nineteent6 ent8r7, obser'ational astronom7 6ad made
it lear t6at t6e S8n is b8t one lonel7 star in a )reat sel&-)ra'itatin) assembla)e o& s8ns alled t6e
5ilk7 *a7 /alaC7$ %ar &rom bein) at t6e enter o& t6e /alaC7, o8r S8n (it6 its ento8ra)e o& dim
and tin7 planets lies in an 8ndistin)8is6ed setor o& an obs8re spiral arm$ *e are t6irt7 t6o8sand
li)6t 7ears &rom t6e +enter$
:ell9 our Milk$ :a$ i "(e onl$ galax$$ 36e 5ilk7 *a7 /alaC7 is one o& billions, per6aps
68ndreds o& billions o& )alaCies notable neit6er in mass nor in bri)6tness nor in 6o( its stars are
on&i)8red and arra7ed$ Some modern deep sk7 p6oto)rap6s s6o( more )alaCies be7ond t6e
5ilk7 *a7 t6an stars (it6in t6e 5ilk7 *a7$ E'er7 one o& t6em is an island 8ni'erse ontainin)
per6aps a 68ndred billion s8ns$ S86 an ima)e is a pro&o8nd sermon on 68milit7$
"0
:ell9 "(en9 a" lea" our %alax$ i a" "(e 7en"er o5 "(e 8ni4ere$ No, t6is is (ron) too$ *6en
t6e eCpansion o& t6e 1ni'erse (as &irst diso'ered, man7 people nat8rall7 )ra'itated to t6e notion
t6at t6e 5ilk7 *a7 (as at t6e enter o& t6e eCpansion, and all t6e ot6er )alaCies r8nnin) a(a7
&rom 8s$ *e no( reo)niIe t6at astronomers on an7 )alaC7 (o8ld see all t6e ot6ers r8nnin) a(a7
$ &rom t6em? 8nless t6e7 (ere 'er7 are&8l, t6e7 (o8ld all onl8de t6at t6e7 (ere at t6e enter o&
t6e 1ni'erse$ 36ere is, in &at, no enter to t6e eCpansion, no point o& ori)in o& t6e Bi) Ban), at
least not in ordinar7 t6ree-dimensional spae$
:ell9 e4en i5 "(ere are (un)re) o5 ;illion o5 galaxie9 ea7( <i"( (un)re) o5 ;illion o5
"ar9 no o"(er "ar (a plane"$ I& t6ere are n ot6er planets be7ond o8r Solar S7stem, per6aps
t6ereAs no ot6er li&e in t6e 1ni'erse$ 28r 8niK8eness mi)6t t6en be sa'ed$ Sin) planets are small
and &eebl7 s6ine b7 re&leted s8nli)6t, t6e7Are 6ard to &ind$ ,lt6o8)6 appliable te6nolo)7 is
impro'in) (it breat6takin) speed, e'en a )iant (orld like >8piter, orbitin) t6e nearest star, ,lp6a
+enta8ri, (o8ld still be di&&i8lt to detet$ Iii o8r i)norane, t6e )eoentrists &ind 6ope$
36ere (as one a sienti&i 67pot6esisGnot H8st (ell reei'ed b8t pre'ailin)Gt6at
s8pposed o8r solar s7stem to 6a'e &ormed t6ro8)6 t6e near ollision o& t6e anient S8n (it6
anot6er star? t6e )ra'itational tidal interation p8lled o8t tendrils o& s8nst8&& t6at K8ikl7
ondensed into planets$ Sine spae is mainl7 empt7 and near stellar ollisions most rare, it (as
onl8ded t6at &e( ot6er planetar7 s7stems eCistGper6aps onl7 one, aro8nd t6at ot6er star t6at
lon) a)o o-parented t6e (orlds o& o8r solar s7stem$ Earl7 in m7 st8dies, I (as amaIed and
disappointed t6at s86 a 'ie( 6ad e'er been taken serio8sl7, t6at &or planets o& ot6er stars,
absene o& e'idene 6ad been onsidered e'idene o& absene$
3oda7 (e 6a'e &irm e'idene &or at least t6ree planets orbitin) an eCtremel7 dense star,
t6e p8lsar desi)nated B1"57S1", abo8t (6i6 IAll sa7 more later$ ,nd (eA'e &o8nd, &or more t6an
6al& t6e stars (it6 masses like t6e S8nAs, t6at earl7 in t6eir areers t6e7Are s8rro8nded b7 )reat
disks o& )as aid d8st o8t o& (6i6 planets seem to &orm$ 2t6er planetar7 s7stems no( look to be a
osmi ommonplae, ma7be e'en (orlds somet6in) like t6e Eart6$ *e s6o8ld be able, in t6e
neCt &e( deades, to in'entor7 at least t6e lar)er planets, i& t6e7 eCist, o& 68ndreds o& nearb7
stars$
:ell9 i5 our poi"ion in pa7e )oen6" re4eal our pe7ial role9 our poi"ion in "ime )oe=
:e64e ;een in "(e 8ni4ere in7e /(e >eginning =)i'e or take a &e( da7s<$ :e64e ;een gi4en
pe7ial reponi;ili"ie ;$ "(e #rea"or$ It one seemed 'er7 reasonable to t6ink o& t6e 1ni'erse as
be)innin) H8st a little be&ore o8r olleti'e memor7 is obs8red b7 t6e passa)e o& time and t6e
illitera7 o& o8r anestors$ /enerall7 speakin), t6atAs 68ndreds or t6o8sands o& 7ears a)o$
-eli)ions t6at p8rport to desribe t6e ori)in o& t6e 1ni'erse o&ten spei&7Gimpliitl7 or
eCpliitl7Ga date o& ori)in o& ro8)6l7 s86 'inta)e, a birt6da7 &or t6e (orld$
I& 7o8 add 8p all t6e Bbe)atsB in /enesis, &or eCample, 7o8 )et an a)e &or t6e Eart6: 6,000
7ears old, pl8s or min8s a little$ 36e 8ni'erse is said to be eCatl7 as old as t6e Eart6$ 36is is still
t6e standard o& >e(is6, +6ristian, and 5oslem &8ndamentalists and is learl7 re&leted in t6e
>e(is6 alendar$
B8t so 7o8n) a 1ni'erse raises an a(k(ard K8estion: 4o( is it t6at t6ere are
astronomial obHets more t6an 6,000 li)6t-7ears a(a7D It takes li)6t a 7ear to tra'el a li)6t-7ear,
10,000 7ears to tra'el 10,000 li)6t-7ears, and so on$ *6en (e look at t6e enter o& t6e 5ilk7
*a7 /alaC7, t6e li)6t (e see le&t its so8re 30,000 7ears a)o$ 36e nearest spiral )alaC7 like o8r
"1
o(n, 531 in t6e onstellation ,ndromeda, is " million li)6t-7ears a(a7, so (e are seein) it as it
(as (6en t6e li)6t &rom it set o8t on its lon) Ho8rne7 to Eart6G" million 7ears a)o$ ,nd (6en
(e obser'e distant K8asars 5 billion li)6t-7ears a(a7, (e are seein) t6em as t6e7 (ere 5 billion
7ears a)o, be&ore t6e Eart6 (as &ormed$ =36e7 are, almost ertainl7, 'er7 di&&erent toda7$<
I&, despite t6is, (e (ere to aept t6e literal tr8t6 o& s86 reli)io8s books, 6o( o8ld (e
reonile t6e dataD 36e onl7 pla8sible onl8sion, I t6ink, is t6at /od reentl7 made all t6e
p6otons o& li)6t arri'in) on t6e Eart6 in s86 a o6erent &ormat as to mislead )enerations o&
astronomers into t6e misappre6ension t6at t6ere are s86 t6in)s as )alaCies and K8asars, and
intentionall7 dri'in) t6em to t6e sp8rio8s onl8sion t6at t6e 1ni'erse is 'ast and old$ 36is is
s86 a male'olent t6eolo)7 I still 6a'e di&&i8lt7 belie'in) t6at an7one, no matter 6o( de'oted to
t6e di'ine inspiration o& an7 reli)io8s book, o8ld serio8sl7 entertain it$
Be7ond t6is, t6e radioati'e datin) o& roks, t6e ab8ndane o& impat raters on man7
(orlds, t6e e'ol8tion o& t6e stars, and t6e eCpansion o& t6e 1ni'erse ea6 pro'ides ompellin)
and independent e'idene t6at o8r 1ni'erse is man7 billions o& 7ears oldGdespite t6e on&ident
assertions o& re'ered t6eolo)ians t6at a (orld so old diretl7 ontradits t6e (ord o& /od, and
t6at at an7 rate in&ormation on t6e antiK8it7 o& t6e (orld is inaessible eCept to &ait6$
1
36ese
lines o& e'idene, as (ell, (o8ld 6a'e to be man8&at8red b7 a deepti'e and maliio8s deit7G
8nless t6e (orld is m86 older t6an t6e literalists in t6e >8deo-+6ristian-Islami reli)ion s8ppose$
2& o8rse, no s86 problem arises &or t6ose man7 reli)io8s people (6o treat t6e Bible and t6e
T8rAan as 6istorial and moral )8ides and )reat literat8re, b8t (6o reo)niIe t6at t6e perspeti'e
o& t6ese sript8res on t6e nat8ral (orld re&lets t6e r8dimentar7 siene o& t6e time in (6i6 t6e7
(ere (ritten$
,)es rolled b7 be&ore t6e Eart6 be)an$ 5ore a)es (ill r8n t6eir o8rse be&ore it is
destro7ed$ , distintion needs to be dra(n bet(een 6o( old t6e Eart6 is =aro8nd 4$5 billion
7ears< and 6o( old t6e 1ni'erse is =abo8t 15 billion 7ears sine t6e Bi) Ban)<$ 36e immense
inter'al o& time bet(een t6e ori)in o& t6e 1ni'erse and o8r epo6 (as t(o-t6irds o'er be&ore t6e
Eart6 ame to be$ Some stars and planetar7 s7stems are billions o& 7ears 7o8n)er, ot6ers billions
o& 7ears older$ B8t in /enesis, 6apter 1, 'erse 1, t6e 1ni'erse and t6e Eart6 are reated on t6e
same da7$ 36e 4ind8-B8dd6ist->ain reli)ion tends not to on&o8nd t6e t(o e'ents$
,s &or 68mans, (eAre lateomers$ *e appear in t6e last instant o& osmi time$ 36e
6istor7 o& t6e 1ni'erse till no( (as 99$99; perent o'er be&ore o8r speies arri'ed on t6e sene$
In t6at 'ast s(eep o& aeons, (e o8ld not 6a'e ass8med an7 speial responsibilities &or o8r
planet, or li&e, or an7t6in) else$ *e (ere not 6ere$
:ell9 i5 <e 7an6" 5in) an$"(ing pe7ial a;ou" our poi"ion or our epo7(9 ma$;e "(ere6
ome"(ing pe7ial a;ou" our mo"ion3 Ne(ton and all t6e ot6er )reat lassial p67siists 6eld t6at
t6e 'eloit7 o& t6e Eart6 in spae onstit8ted a Bpri'ile)ed &rame o& re&erene$B 36atAs at8all7
(6at it (as alled$ ,lbert Einstein, a keen riti o& preH8die and pri'ile)e all 6is li&e, onsidered
t6is Babsol8teB p67sis a remnant o& an inreasin)l7 disredited Eart6 6a8'inism$ It seemed to
1
St$ ,8)8stine, in 36e +it7 o& /od, sa7s, B,s it is not 7et siC t6o8sand 7ears sine t6e &irst man $ $ $ are not t6ose to be ridi8led
rat6er t6an re&8ted (6o tr7 to pers8ade 8s o& an7t6in) re)ardin) a spae o& time so di&&erent &rom, and ontrar7 to, t6e asertained
tr8t6D $ $ $ *e, bein) s8stained b7 di'ine a8t6orit7 in t6e 6istor7 o& o8r reli)ion, 6a'e no do8bt t6at (6ate'er is opposed to it is most
&alse$B 4e eCoriates t6e anient E)7ptian tradition t6at t6e (orld is at m86 as a 68ndred t6o8sand 7ears old as Babominable lies$B St$
36omas ,K8inas, in t6e S8mma 36eolo)ia, &latl7 states t6at Bt6e ne(ness o& t6e (orld annot be demonstrated &rom t6e (orld itsel&$B
36e7 (ere so s8re$
""
6im t6at t6e la(s o& Nat8re m8st be t6e same no matter (6at t6e 'eloit7 or &rame o& re&erene o&
t6e obser'er$ *it6 t6is as 6is startin) point, 6e de'eloped t6e Speial 36eor7 o& -elati'it7$ Its
onseK8enes are biIarre, o8nter int8iti'e, and )rossl7 ontradit ommon senseGb8t onl7 at
'er7 6i)6 speeds$ +are&8l and repeated obser'ations s6o( t6at 6is H8stl7 elebrated t6eor7 is an
a8rate desription o& 6o( t6e (orld is made$ 28r ommonsense int8itions an be mistaken$ 28r
pre&erenes donAt o8nt$ *e do not li'e in a pri'ile)ed re&erene &rame$
2ne onseK8ene o& speial relati'it7 is time dilationGt6e slo(in) do(n o& time as t6e
obser'er approa6es li)6t speed$ :o8 an still &ind laims t6at time dilation applies to (at6es
and elementar7 partilesGand, pres8mabl7, to iradian and ot6er r67t6ms in plants, animals, and
mirobesGb8t not to 68man biolo)ial loks$ 28r speies 6as been )ranted, it is s8))ested,
speial imm8nit7 &rom t6e la(s o& Nat8re, (6i6 m8st aordin)l7 be able to distin)8is6
deser'in) &rom 8ndeser'in) olletions o& matter$ =In &at, t6e proo& Einstein )a'e &or speial,
relati'it7 admits no s86 distintions$< 36e idea o& 68mans as eCeptions to relati'it7 seems
anot6er inarnation o& t6e notion o& speial reation:
:ell9 e4en i5 our poi"ion9 our epo7(9 our mo"ion9 an) our <orl) are no" uni?ue9 ma$;e
<e are3 :e6re )i55eren" 5rom "(e o"(er animal3 :e6re pe7iall$ 7rea"e)3 /(e par"i7ular )e4o"ion o5
"(e #rea"or o5 "(e 8ni4ere i e4i)en" in u$ 36is position (as passionatel7 de&ended on reli)io8s
and ot6er )ro8nds$ B8t in t6e middle nineteent6 ent8r7 +6arles !ar(in s6o(ed on'inin)l7
6o( one speies an e'ol'e into anot6er b7 entirel7 nat8ral proesses, (6i6 ome do(n to t6e
6eartless b8siness o& Nat8re sa'in) t6e 6eredities t6at (ork and reHetin) t6ose t6at donAt$ B5an in
6is arro)ane t6inks 6imsel& a )reat (ork (ort67 Qo&R t6e interposition o& a deit7,B !ar(in (rote
tele)rap6iall7 in 6is notebook$ B5ore 68mble and I t6ink tr8er to onsider 6im reated &rom
animals$B 36e pro&o8nd and intimate onnetions o& 68mans (it6 t6e ot6er li&e &orms, on Eart6
6a'e been ompellin)l7 demonstrated in t6e late t(entiet6 ent8r7 b7 t6e ne( siene o&
mole8lar biolo)7$
IN EACH AGE t6e sel&-on)rat8lator7 6a8'inisms are 6allen)ed in 7et anot6er arena o& sienti&i
debateGin t6is ent8r7, &or eCample, in attempts to 8nderstand t6e nat8re o& 68man seC8alit7, t6e
eCistene o& t6e 8nonsio8s mind, and t6e &at t6at man7 ps76iatri illnesses and 6arater
Bde&etsB 6a'e a mole8lar ori)in$ B8t also:
:ell9 e4en i5 <e6re 7loel$ rela"e) "o ome o5 "(e o"(er animal9 <e6re )i55eren"@no" Au"
in )egree9 ;u" in kin)@on <(a" reall$ ma""er= reaoning9 el57on7ioune9 "ool making9 e"(i79
al"ruim9 religion9 language9 no;ili"$ o5 7(ara7"er$ *6ile 68mans, like all animals, 6a'e traits t6at
set t6em apartGot6er(ise, 6o( o8ld (e distin)8is6 one speies &rom anot6erDG68man
8niK8eness 6as been eCa))erated, sometimes )rossl7 so$ +6imps reason, are sel&-onsio8s, make
tools, s6o( de'otion, and so on$ +6imps and 68mans 6a'e 99$6 perent o& t6eir ati'e )enes in
ommon$ =,nn !r87an and I r8n t6ro8)6 t6e e'idene in o8r book S(a)o< o5 2orgo""en
An7e"or$<
In pop8lar 8lt8re, t6e 'er7 opposite position is also embraed, alt6o8)6 it too is dri'en
b7 68man 6a8'inism =pl8s a &ail8re o& t6e ima)ination<: +6ildrenAs stories and artoons make
animals dress in lot6es, li'e in 6o8ses, 8se kni'es and &orks, and speak$ 36e t6ree bears sleep in
beds$ 36e o(l and t6e p8ss7at )o to sea in a bea8ti&8l pea-)reen boat$ !inosa8r mot6ers 8ddle
t6eir 7o8n)$ 0elians deli'er t6e mail$ !o)s dri'e ars$ , (orm at6es a t6ie&$ 0ets 6a'e 68man
"3
names$ !olls, n8trakers, 8ps, and sa8ers dane and 6a'e opinions$ 36e dis6 r8ns a(a7 (it6
t6e spoon$ In t6e 36omas t6e 3ank En)ine series, (e e'en 6a'e ant6ropomorp6i loomoti'es
and rail(a7 ars, 6armin)l7 portra7ed$ No matter (6at (eAre t6inkin) abo8t, animate or
inanimate, (e tend to in'est it (it6 68man traits$ *e anAt 6elp o8rsel'es$ 36e ima)es ome
readil7 to mind$ +6ildren are learl7 &ond o& t6em$
*6en (e talk abo8t a Bt6reatenin)B sk7, a Btro8bledB sea diamonds Bresistin)B bein)
srat6ed, t6e Eart6 Battratin)B passin) asteroid, or an atom bein) BeCited,B (e are a)ain dra(n
to a kind o& animist (orld'ie($ *e rei&7$ Some anient le'el o& o8r t6inkin) endo(s inanimate
Nat8re (it6 li&e, passions, and &oret6o8)6t$
36e notion t6at t6e Eart6 is sel&-a(are 6as latel7 been )ro(in) at t6e &rin)es o& t6e
B/aiaB 67pot6esis$ B8t t6is (as ommonplae belie& o& bot6 t6e anient /reeks and t6e earl
+6ristians$ 2ri)en (ondered (6et6er Bt6e eart6 also, aordin) to its o(n nat8re, is ao8ntable
&or some sin$B , 6ost o& anient s6olars t6o8)6t t6e stars ali'e$ 36is (as also t6e position o&
2ri)en, o& St$ ,mbrose =t6e mentor o& St$ ,8)8stine<, and e'en, in a more K8ali&ied &orm, o& St$
36omas ,K8inas$ 36e Stoi p6ilosop6ial position on t6e S8nAs nat8re (as stated b7 +iero, in
t6e &irst ent8r7 B$+$: BSine t6e S8n resembles t6ose &ires (6i6 are ontained in t6e bodies o&
li'in) reat8res, t6e S8n m8st also be ali'e$B
,nimist attit8des in )eneral seem to 6a'e been spreadin) reentl7$ In a 1954 ,merian
s8r'e7, 75 perent o& people polled (ere (illin) to state t6at t6e S8n is not ali'e? in 19;9, onl7 30
perent (o8ld s8pport so ras6 a proposition$ 2n (6et6er an a8tomobile tire an &eel an7t6in), 90
perent o& respondents denied it emotions in 1954, b8t onl7 73 perent in 19;9$
*e an reo)niIe 6ere a s6ortomin)Gin some ir8mstanes serio8sGin o8r abilit7 to
8nderstand t6e (orld$ +6arateristiall7, (ill7-nill7, (e seem ompelled to proHet o8r o(n
nat8re onto Nat8re$ ,lt6o8)6 t6is ma7 res8lt in a onsistentl7 distorted 'ie( o& t6e (orld, it does
6a'e one )reat 'irt8eGproHetion is t6e essential preondition &or ompassion$
Oka$9 ma$;e <e6re no" mu7(9 ma$;e <e6re (umilia"ingl$ rela"e) "0 ape9 ;u" a" lea"
<e6re "(e ;e" "(ere i3 %o) an) angel ai)e9 <e6re "(e onl$ in"elligen" ;eing in "(e 8ni4ere$
2ne orrespondent (rites to me, BI am as s8re o& t6is as an7t6in) in m7 eCperiene$ 36ere is no
onsio8s li&e an7(6ere else in t6e 1ni'erse$ 5ankind t68s ret8rns to its ri)6t&8l position as
enter o& t6e 8ni'erse$B 4o(e'er, partl7 t6ro8)6 t6e in&l8ene o& siene aid siene &ition,
most people toda7, in t6e 1nited States at least, reHet t6is propositionG&or reasons essentiall7
stated b7 t6e anient /reek p6ilosop6er +6r7sipp8s: B%or an7 68man bein) in eCistene to t6ink
t6at t6ere is not6in) in t6e (6ole (orld s8perior to 6imsel& (o8ld be an insane piee o&
arro)ane$B
B8t t6e simple &at is t6at (e 6a'e not 7et &o8nd eCtraterrestrial li&e$ *e are in t6e earliest
sta)es o& lookin)$ 36e K8estion is (ide open$ I& I 6ad to )8essGespeiall7 onsiderin) o8r lon)
seK8ene o& &ailed I (o8ld )8ess t6at t6e 1ni'erse is &illed (it6 bein)s &ar more intelli)ent, tar
more ad'aned t6an (e are$ B8t o& o8rse I mi)6t be (ron)$ S86 a onl8sion is at best based
on a pla8sibilit7 ar)8ment, deri'ed &rom t6e n8mbers o& planets, t6e 8biK8it7 o& or)ani matter,
t6e immense timesales a'ailable &or e'ol8tion, and so on$ It is not a sienti&i demonstration$
36e K8estion is amon) t6e most &asinatin) in all o& siene$ ,s desribed in t6is book, (e are
H8st de'elopin) t6e tools to treat it serio8sl7$
"4
*6at abo8t t6e related matter o& (6et6er (e are apable o& reatin) intelli)enes smarter t6an
o8rsel'esD +omp8ters ro8tinel7 do mat6ematis t6at no 8naided 68man an mana)e, o8tper&orm
(orld 6ampions in 6ekers and )rand masters in 6ess, speak and 8nderstand En)lis6 and ot6er
lan)8a)es, (rite presentable s6ort stories and m8sial ompositions, learn &rom t6eir mistakes,
and ompetentl7 pilot s6ips, airplanes, and spaera&t$ 36eir abilities steadil7 impro'e$ 36e7Are
)ettin) smaller, &aster, and 6eaper$ Ea6 7ear, t6e tide o& sienti&i ad'ane laps a little &8rt6er
as6ore on t6e island o& 68man intellet8al 8niK8eness (it6 its embattled asta(a7s$ I&, at so earl7
a sta)e in o8r te6nolo)ial e'ol8tion, (e 6a'e been able to )o so &ar in reatin) intelli)ene o8t
o& silion and metal, (6at (ill be possible in t6e &ollo(in) deades and ent8riesD *6at 6appens
(6en smart ma6ines are able to man8&at8re smarter ma6inesD
PERHAPS THE CLEAREST INDICATION t6at t6e sear6 &or an 8nmerited pri'ile)ed position &or
68mans (ill ne'er be (6oll7 abandoned is (6at in p67sis and astronom7 is alled t6e ,nt6ropi
0riniple$ It (o8ld be better named t6e ,nt6ropoentri 0riniple$ It omes in 'ario8s &orms$ 36e
B*eakB ,nt6ropi 0riniple merel7 notes t6at i& t6e la(s o& Nat8re and t6e p67sial onstantsG
s86 as t6e speed o& li)6t, t6e eletrial 6ar)e o& t6e eletron, t6e Ne(tonian )ra'itational
onstant, or 0lankAs K8ant8m me6anial onstant 6ad been di&&erent, t6e o8rse o& e'ents
leadin) to t6e ori)in o& 68mans (o8ld ne'er 6a'e transpired$ 1nder ot6er la(s and onstants,
atoms (o8ld not 6old to)et6er, stars (o8ld e'ol'e too K8ikl7 to lea'e s8&&iient time &or li&e to
e'ol'e on nearb7 planets, t6e 6emial elements o& (6i6 li&e is made (o8ld ne'er 6a'e been
)enerated, and so on$ !i&&erent la(s, no 68mans$
36ere is no ontro'ers7 abo8t t6e *eak ,nt6ropi 0riniple: +6an)e t6e la(s and
onstants o& Nat8re, i& 7o8 o8ld, and a 'er7 di&&erent 8ni'erse ma7 emer)eGin man7 ases, a
8ni'erse inompatible (it6 li&e$
1
36e mere &at t6at (e eCist implies =b8t does not impose<
onstraints on t6e la(s o& Nat8re$ In ontrast, t6e 'ario8s BStron)B ,nt6ropi 0riniples )o m86
&art6er? some o& t6eir ad'oates ome lose to ded8in) t6at t6e la(s o& Nat8re and t6e 'al8es o&
t6e p67sial onstants (ere establis6ed =donAt ask 6o( or b7 *6om< so t6at 68mans (o8ld
e'ent8all7 ome to be$ ,lmost all o& t6e ot6er possible 8ni'erses, t6e7 sa7, are in6ospitable$ In
t6is (a7, t6e anient oneit t6at t6e 1ni'erse (as made &or 8s is res8sitated$
3o me it e6oes !r$ 0an)loss in #oltaireAs #an)i)e, on'ined t6at t6is (orld, (it6 all its
imper&etions, is t6e best possible$ It so8nds like pla7in) m7 &irst 6and o& brid)e, (innin),
kno(in) t6at t6ere are 54 billion billion billion =5$4 9 10
";
< possible ot6er 6ands t6at I (as
eK8all7 likel7 to 6a'e been dealt $ $ $ and t6en &oolis6l7 onl8din) t6at a )od o& brid)e eCists and
&a'ors me, a )od (6o arran)ed t6e ards and t6e s68&&le (it6 m7 'itor7 &oreordained &rom 36e
Be)innin)$ *e do not kno( 6o( man7 ot6er (innin) 6ands t6ere are in t6e osmi dek, 6o(
man7 ot6er kinds o& 8ni'erses, la(s o& Nat8re, and p67sial onstants: t6at o8ld also lead to li&e
and Intelli)ene and per6aps e'en del8sions o& sel&-importane$ Sine (e kno( neCt to not6in)
1
28r 8ni'erse is almost inompatible (it6 li&eGor at least (6at (e 8nderstand as neessar7 &or li&e: E'en i& e'er7 star in a 68ndred
billion )alaCies 6ad an Eart6like planet, (it6o8t 6eroi te6nolo)ial meas8res li&e o8ld prosper in onl7 abo8t 10
-37
t6e 'ol8me o& t6e
1ni'erse$ %or larit7, letAs (rite it o8t: onl7 0$000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 1 o& o8r 8ni'erse is 6ospitable to
li&e$ 36irt7-siC Ieroes be&ore t6e one$ 36e rest is old, radiation-riddled blak 'a88m$
"5
abo8t 6o( t6e 1ni'erse (as madeGor e'en i& it (as madeGitAs di&&i8lt to p8rs8e t6ese notions
prod8ti'el7$
#oltaire asked B*67 is t6ere an7t6in)DB EinsteinAs &orm8lation (as to ask (6et6er /od 6ad
an7 6oie in reatin) t6e 1ni'erse$ B8t i& t6e 1ni'erse is in&initel7 oldGi& t6e Bi) Ban) some
15 billion 7ears a)o is onl7 t6e most reent 8sp in an in&inite series o& osmi ontrations and
eCpansionsGt6en it (as ne'er reated and t6e K8estion o& (67 it is as it is is rendered
meanin)less$
I&, on t6e ot6er 6and, t6e 1ni'erse 6as a &inite a)e, (67 is it t6e (a7 it isD *67 (asnAt it
)i'en a 'er7 di&&erent 6araterD *6i6 la(s o& Nat8re )o (it6 (6i6 ot6ersD ,re t6ere meta-
la(s spei&7in) t6e onnetionsD +an (e possibl7 diso'er t6emD 2& all onei'able la(s o&
)ra'it7, sa7, (6i6 ones an eCist sim8ltaneo8sl7 (it6 (6i6 onei'able la(s o& K8ant8m
p67sis t6at determine t6e 'er7 eCistene o& marosopi matterD ,re all la(s (e an t6ink o&
possible, or is t6ere onl7 a restrited n8mber t6at an some6o( be bro8)6t into eCisteneD +learl7
(e 6a'e not a )limmerin) o& 6o( to determine (6i6 la(s o& Nat8re are BpossibleB and (6i6
are not$ Nor do (e 6a'e more t6an t6e most r8dimentar7 notion o& (6at orrelations o& nat8ral
la(s are Bpermitted$B
%or eCample, Ne(tonAs 8ni'ersal la( o& )ra'itation spei&ies t6at t6e m8t8al )ra'itational
&ore attratin) t(o bodies to(ards ea6 ot6er is in'ersel7 proportional to t6e sK8are o& 6o( &ar
t6e7 are apart$ :o8 mo'e t(ie as &ar &rom t6e enter o& t6e Eart6 and 7o8 (ei)6 a K8arter as
m86? ten times &art6er and 7o8 (ei)6 onl7 a 68ndredt6 o& 7o8r ordinar7 (ei)6t? et$ It is t6is
in'erse sK8are la( t6at permits t6e eCK8isite ir8lar and elliptial orbits o& planets aro8nd t6e
S8n, and moons aro8nd t6e planetsGas (ell as t6e preision traHetories o& o8r interplanetar7
spaera&t$ I& r is t6e distane bet(een t6e enters o& t(o masses, (e sa7 t6at t6e )ra'itational
&ore 'aries as 1Nr
"
$
B8t i& t6is eCponent (ere di&&erentGi& t6e )ra'itational la( (ere 1Nr
4
, sa7, rat6er t6an
1Nr
"
Gt6en t6e orbits (o8ld not lose? o'er billions o& re'ol8tions, t6e planets (o8ld spiral in and
be ons8med in t6e &ier7 dept6s o& t6e S8n, or spiral o8t and be lost to interstellar spae$ I& t6e
1ni'erse (ere onstr8ted (it6 an in'erse &o8rt6 po(er la( rat6er t6an an in'erse sK8are la(,
soon t6ere (o8ld be no planets &or li'in) bein)s to in6abit$
So o& all t6e possible )ra'itational &ore la(s, (67 are (e so l8k7 as to li'e in a
8ni'erse sportin) a la( onsistent (it6 li&eD %irst o& o8rse, (eAre so Bl8k7,B bea8se i& (e
(erenAt, (e (o8ldnAt be 6ere to ask t6e K8estion$ It is no m7ster7 t6at inK8isiti'e bein)s (6o
e'ol'e on planets an be &o8nd onl7 in 8ni'erses t6at admit planets$ Seond, t6e in'erse sK8are
la( is not is t6e onl7 one onsistent (it6 stabilit7 o'er billions o& 7ears$ ,n7 po(er la( less steep
t6an 1Nr
3
=1Nr
"$99
or 1Nr, &or eCample< (ill keep a planet in t6e 4i7ini"$ o& a ir8lar orbit e'en i& itAs
)i'en a s6o'e$ *e 6a'e a tenden7 to o'erlook t6e possibilit7 t6at ot6er onei'able la(s o&
Nat8re mi)6t also be onsistent (it6 li&e$
B8t t6ereAs a &8rt6er point: ItAs not arbitrar7 t6at (e 6a'e an in'erse sK8are la( o& )ra'itation$
*6en Ne(tonAs t6eor7 is 8nderstood in terms o& t6e more enompassin) )eneral t6eor7 o&
relati'it7, (e reo)niIe t6at t6e eCponent o& t6e )ra'it7 la( is " bea8se t6e n8mber o& p67sial
dimensions (e li'e in is 3$ ,ll )ra'it7 la(s arenAt a'ailable, &ree &or a +reatorAs 6oosin)$ E'en
)i'en an in&inite n8mber o& t6ree-dimensional 8ni'erses &or some )reat )od to tinker (it6, t6e
"6
)ra'it7 la( (o8ld al(a7s la'e to be t6e la( o& t6e in'erse sK8are$ Ne(tonian )ra'it7, (e mi)6t
sa7, is not a ontin)ent &aet o& o8r 8ni'erse, b8t a neessar7 one$
In )eneral relati'it7, )ra'it7 is )ue to t6e dimensionalit7 and 8r'at8re o& spae$ *6en (e
talk abo8t )ra'it7 (e are talkin) abo8t loal dimples in spae-time$ 36is is b7 no means ob'io8s
and e'en a&&ronts ommonsense notions$ B8t (6en eCamined deepl7, t6e ideas o& )ra'it7 and
mass are not separate matters, b8t rami&iations o& t6e 8nderl7in) )eometr7 o& spae-time$
I (onder i& somet6in) like t6is doesnAt appl7 )enerall7 to all ant6ropi 67pot6eses$ 36e
la(s or p67sial onstants on (6i6 o8r li'es depend t8rn o8t to be members o& a lass, per6aps
e'en a 'ast lass, o& ot6er la(s and ot6er p67sial onstantsGb8t some o& t6ese are also
ompatible (it6 a kind o& li&e$ 2&ten (e do not =or annot< (ork t6ro8)6 (6at t6ose ot6er
8ni'erses allo($ Be7ond t6at, not e'er7 arbitrar7 6oie o& a la( o& Nat8re or a p67sial onstant
ma7 be a'ailable, e'en to a maker o& 8ni'erses$ 28r 8nderstandin) o& (6i6 la(s o& Nat8re and
(6i6 p67sial onstants are 8p &or )rabs is &ra)mentar7 at best$
5oreo'er, (e 6a'e no aess to an7 o& t6ose p8tati'e alternati'e 8ni'erses$ *e 6a'e no
eCperimental met6od b7 (6i6 ant6ropi 67pot6eses ma7 be tested$ E'en i& t6e eCistene o& s86
8ni'erses (ere to &ollo( &irml7 &rom (ell-establis6ed t6eoriesGo& K8ant8m me6anis or
)ra'itation, sa7G(e o8ld not be s8re t6at t6ere (erenAt better t6eories t6at predit no alternati'e
8ni'erses$ 1ntil t6at time omes, i& it e'er does, it seems to me premat8re to p8t &ait6 in t6e
,nt6ropi 0riniple as an ar)8ment &or 68man entralit7 or 8niK8eness$
%inall7, e'en i& t6e 1ni'erse (ere in"en"ionall$ reated to allo( &or t6e emer)ene o& li&e or
intelli)ene, ot6er bein)s ma7 eCist on o8ntless (orlds$ I& so, it (o8ld be old om&ort to
ant6ropoentrists t6at (e in6abit one o& t6e &e( 8ni'erses t6at allo( li&e and intelli)ene$
36ere is somet6in) st8nnin)l7 narro( abo8t 6o( t6e ,nt6ropi 0riniple is p6rased$ :es, onl7
ertain la(s and onstants o& nat8re are onsistent (it6 o8r kind o& li&e$ B8t essentiall7 t6e same
la(s and onstants are reK8ired to make a
rok$ So (67 not talk abo8t a 1ni'erse desi)ned so roks o8ld one da7 ome to be, and stron)
and (eak .it6i 0riniplesD I& stones o8ld p6ilosop6iIe, I ima)ine .it6i 0riniples (o8ld be at
t6e intellet8al &rontiers$
36ere are osmolo)ial models bein) &orm8lated toda7 in (6i6 e'en t6e entire 1ni'erse
is not6in) speial$ ,ndrei .inde, &ormerl7 o& t6e .ebede' 067sial Instit8te in 5oso( and no(
at Stan&ord 1ni'ersit7, 6as inorporated 8rrent 8nderstandin) o& t6e stron) and (eak n8lear
&ores and K8ant8m p67sis into a ne( osmolo)ial model$ .inde en'isions a 'ast +osmos,
m86 lar)er t6an o8r 1ni'erseGper6aps eCtendin) to in&init7 bot6 in spae and timeGnot t6e
paltr7 15 billion li)6t-7ears or so in radi8s and 15 billion 7ears in a)e (6i6 are t6e 8s8al
8nderstandin)$ In t6is +osmos t6ere is, as 6ere, a kind o& K8ant8m &l8&& in (6i6 tin7 str8t8resG
m86 smaller t6an an eletronGare e'er7(6ere &ormin), res6apin), and dissipatin)? in (6i6, as
6ere, &l8t8ations in absol8tel7 empt7 spae reate pairs o& elementar7 partilesGan eletron and
a positron, &or eCample$ In t6e &rot6 o& K8ant8m b8bbles, t6e 'ast maHorit7 remain
s8bmirosopi$ B8t a tin7 &ration in&late, )ro(, and a6ie'e respetable 8ni'erse6ood$ 36e7 are
so &ar a(a7 &rom 8s, t6o8)6Gm86 &art6er t6an t6e 15 billion li)6t-7ears t6at is t6e on'entional
sale o& o8r 8ni'erseGt6at, i& t6e7 eCist, t6e7 appear to be (6oll7 inaessible and 8ndetetable$
5ost o& t6ese ot6er 8ni'erses rea6 a maCim8m siIe and t6en ollapse, ontrat to a
point, and disappear &ore'er$ 2t6ers ma7 osillate$ Still ot6ers ma7 eCpand (it6o8t limit$ In
"7
di&&erent 8ni'erses t6ere (ill be di&&erent la(s o& nat8re$ *e li'e, .inde ar)8es, in one s86
8ni'erseGone in (6i6 t6e p67sis is on)enial &or )ro(t6, in&lation, eCpansion, )alaCies, stars,
(orlds, li&e$ *e ima)ine o8r 8ni'erse to be 8niK8e, b8t it is one o& an immense n8mberGper6aps
an in&inite n8mberGo& eK8all7 'alid, eK8all7 independent, eK8all7 isolated 8ni'erses$ 36ere (ill
be li&e in some, and not in ot6ers$ In t6is 'ie( t6e obser'able 1ni'erse is H8st a ne(l7 &ormed
bak(ater o& a m86 'aster, in&initel7 old, and (6oll7 8nobser'able +osmos$ I& somet6in) like
t6is is ri)6t, e'en o8r resid8al pride, pallid as it m8st be, o& li'in) in t6e onl7 8ni'erse is denied to
8s$
1
5a7be someda7, despite 8rrent e'idene, a means (ill be de'ised to peer into adHaent
8ni'erses, sportin) 'er7 di&&erent la(s o& nat8re, and (e (ill see (6at else is possible$ 2r per6aps
in6abitants o& adHaent 8ni'erses an peer into o8rs$ 2& o8rse, in s86 spe8lations (e 6a'e &ar
eCeeded t6e bo8nds o& kno(led)e$ B8t i& somet6in) like .indeAs +osmos is tr8e, t6ere isG
amaIin)l7Gstill anot6er de'astatin) depro'inialiIation a(aitin) 8s$
28r po(ers are &ar &rom adeK8ate to be reatin) 8ni'erses an7time soon$ Stron)
,nt6ropi 0riniple ideas are not amenable to proo& =alt6o8)6 .indeAs osmolo)7 does 6a'e some
testable &eat8res<$ ECtraterrestrial li&e aside, i& sel&-on)rat8lator7 pretensions to entralit7 6a'e
no( retreated to s86 bastions imper'io8s to eCperiment, t6en t6e seK8ene o& sienti&i battles
(it6 68man 6a8'inism (o8ld seem to 6a'e been, at least lar)el7, (on$
THE LONG-STANDING VIEW, as s8mmariIed b7 t6e p6ilosop6er Imman8el Eant, t6at B(it6o8t
man $ $ $ t6e (6ole o& reation (o8ld be a mere (ilderness, a t6in) in 'ain, and 6a'e no &inal endB
is re'ealed to be sel&-ind8l)ent &oll7$ , 0riniple o& 5ediorit7 seems to appl7 to all o8r
ir8mstanes$ *e o8ld not 6a'e kno(n be&ore6and t6at t6e e'idene (o8ld be, so repeatedl7
and t6oro8)6l7, inompatible (it6 t6e proposition t6at 68man bein)s are at enter sta)e in t6e
1ni'erse$ B8t most o& t6e debates 6a'e no( been settled deisi'el7 in &a'or o& a position t6at,
6o(e'er pain&8l, an be enaps8lated in a sin)le sentene: *e 6a'e not been )i'en t6e lead in t6e
osmi drama$
0er6aps someone else 6as$ 0er6aps no one else 6as$ In eit6er ase, (e 6a'e )ood reason
&or 68milit7$
1
%or s86 ideas, (ords tend to &ail 8s$ , /erman lo8tion &or 1ni'erse is Qdad 911(6i6 makes t6e inl8si'eness K8ite
8nmistakable$ *e mi)6t sa7 t6at o8r 8ni'erse is b8t one in a B58lti'erse,B b8t I pre&er to 8se B+osmosB &or e'er7t6in) and B1ni'erseB
&or t6e onl7 one (e an kno( abo8t$
";
+ 4 , 0 3 E - 4
, 1NI#E-SE
N23 5,!E
%2- 1S
36e Sea o& %ait6
*as one, too, at t6e &8ll, and ro8nd eart6As s6ore
.a7 like t6e &olds o& a bri)6t )irdle &8rlAd$
B8t no( I onl7 6ear
Its melan6ol7, lon), (it6dra(in) roar,
-etreatin), to t6e breat6
2& t6e ni)6t-(ind, do(n t6e 'ast ed)es drear
,nd naked s6in)les o& t6e (orld$
G5,334E* ,-N2.!, B!2#E- BE,+4B =1;67<
W6at a bea8ti&8l s8nset,B (e sa7, or BIAm 8p be&ore s8nrise$B No matter (6at t6e sientists
alle)e, in e'er7da7 spee6 (e o&ten i)nore t6eir &indin)s$ *e donAt talk abo8t t6e Eart6 t8rnin),
b8t abo8t t6e S8n risin) and settin)$ 3r7 &orm8latin) it in +opernian lan)8a)e$ *o8ld 7o8 sa7,
BBill7, be 6ome b7 t6e time t6e Eart6 6as rotated eno8)6 so as to o8lt t6e S8n belo( t6e loal
6oriIonBD Bill7 (o8ld be lon) )one be&ore 7o8Are &inis6ed$ We 6a'enAt been able e'en to &ind a
)rae&8l lo8tion t6at a8ratel7 t6e 4elioentri insi)6t$ *e at t6e enter and e'er7t6in) else
irlin) 8s is b8ilt into o8r lan)8a)es? (e tea6 it to o8r 6ildren$ *e are 8nreonstr8ted
)eoentrists 6idin) be6ind a +opernian 'eneer$
1
In 1633 t6e -oman +at6oli +68r6 ondemned /alileo &or tea6in) t6at t6e Eart6 )oes
aro8nd t6e S8n$ .etAs take a loser look at t6is &amo8s ontro'ers7$ In t6e pre&ae to 6is book
omparin) t6e t(o 67pot6esesGan Eart6-entered and a S8n-entered 8ni'erseG/alileo 6ad
(ritten,
36e elestial p6enomena (ill be eCamined, stren)t6enin) t6e +opernian 67pot6esis 8ntil it mi)6t
seem t6at t6is m8st tri8mp6 absol8tel7$
,nd later in t6e book 6e on&essed,
Nor an I e'er s8&&iientl7 admire Q+operni8s and 6is &ollo(ersR? t6e7 6a'e t6ro8)6 s6eer &ore o&
1
2ne o& t6e &e( K8asi-+opernian eCpressions in En)lis6 is B36e 1ni'erse doesnAt re'ol'e aro8nd 7o8B-an astronomial tr8t6
intended to brin) &led)lin) narissists do(n to Eart6$
"9
intellet done s86 'iolene to t6eir o(n senses as to pre&er (6at reason told t6em o'er (6at
sensible eCperiene plainl7 s6o(ed t6em $ $ $
36e +68r6 delared, in its inditment o& /alileo,
36e dotrine t6at t6e eart6 is neit6er t6e enter o& t6e 8ni'erse nor immo'able, b8t mo'es e'en (it6
a dail7 rotation, is abs8rd, and bot6 ps76olo)iall7 and t6eolo)iall7 &alse, and at t6e least an error
o& &ait6$
/alileo replied,
36e dotrine o& t6e mo'ements o& t6e eart6 and t6e &iCit7 o& t6e s8n is ondemned on t6e )ro8nd
t6at t6e Sript8res speak in man7 plaes o& t6e s8n mo'in) and t6e eart6 standin) still $ $ $ It is
pio8sl7 spoken t6at t6e Sript8res annot lie$ B8t none (ill den7 t6at t6e7 are &reK8entl7 abstr8se
and t6eir tr8e meanin) di&&i8lt to diso'er, and more t6an t6e bare (ords si)ni&7$ I t6ink t6at in t6e
dis8ssion o& nat8ral problems (e o8)6t to be)in not (it6 t6e Sript8res, b8t (it6 eCperiments and
demonstrations$
B8t in 6is reantation =>8ne "", 1633< /alileo (as made to sa7,
4a'in) been admonis6ed b7 t6e 4ol7 2&&ie entirel7 to abandon t6e &alse opinion t6at t6e S8n (as t6e enter o&
t6e 8ni'erse and immo'able, and t6at t6e Eart6 (as not t6e enter o& t6e same and t6at it mo'ed $ $ $ I 6a'e been
$ $ $ s8speted o& 6eres7, t6at is, o& 6a'in) 6eld and belie'ed t6at t6e S8n is t6e enter o& t6e 8ni'erse and
immo'able, and t6at t6e Eart6 is not t6e enter o& t6e same, and t6at it does mo'e $ $ $ 1 abH8re (it6 a sinere
6eart and 8n&ei)ned &ait6, I 8rse and detest t6e same errors and 6eresies, and )enerall7 all and e'er7 error and
set ontrar7 to t6e 4ol7 +at6oli +68r6$
It took t6e +68r6 8ntil 1;3" to remo'e /alileoAs (ork &rom its list o& books (6i6
+at6olis (ere &orbidden to read at t6e risk o& dire p8nis6ment o& t6eir immortal so8ls$
0onti&ial disK8iet (it6 modern siene 6as ebbed and &lo(ed sine t6e time o& /alileo$ 36e
6i)6-(ater mark in reent 6istor7 is t6e 1;64 S7llab8s o& Errors o& 0i8s I9, t6e pope (6o also
on'ened t6e #atian +o8nil at (6i6 t6e dotrine o& papal in&allibilit7 (as, at 6is insistene,
&irst prolaimed$ 4ere are a &e( eCerpts:
!i'ine re'elation is per&et and, t6ere&ore, it is not s8bHet to ontin8al and inde&inite pro)ress in
order to orrespond (it6 t6e pro)ress o& 68man reason $ $ $ No man is &ree to embrae and pro&ess
t6at reli)ion (6i6 6e belie'es to be tr8e, )8ided b7 t6e li)6t o& reason $ $ $ 36e +68r6 6as po(er to
de&ine do)matiall7 t6e reli)ion o& t6e +at6oli +68r6 to be t6e onl7 tr8e reli)ion $ $ $ It is
neessar7 e'en in t6e present da7 t6at t6e +at6oli reli)ion s6all be 6eld as t6e onl7 reli)ion o& t6e
state, to t6e eCl8sion o& all ot6er &orms o& (ors6ip $ $ $ 36e i'il libert7 o& e'er7 mode o& (ors6ip,
and &8ll po(er )i'en to all o& openl7 and p8blil7 mani&estin) t6eir opinions and t6eir ideas ond8e
more easil7 to orr8pt t6e morals and minds o& t6e people $ $ $ 36e -oman 0onti&& annot and o8)6t
not to reonile 6imsel& or a)ree (it6, pro)ress, liberalism and modern i'iliIation$
30
3o its redit, alt6o8)6 belatedl7 and rel8tantl7, t6e +68r6 in 199" rep8diated its
den8niation o& /alileo$ It still annot K8ite brin) itsel&, t6o8)6, to see t6e si)ni&iane o& its
opposition$ In a 199" spee6 0ope >o6n 0a8l II ar)8ed,
%rom t6e be)innin) o& t6e ,)e o& Enli)6tenment do(n to o8r o(n da7, t6e /alileo ase 6as been a
sort o& Bm7t6B in (6i6 t6e ima)e &abriated o8t o& t6e e'ents is K8ite &ar remo'ed &rom realit7$ In
t6is perspeti'e, t6e /alileo ase (as a s7mbol o& t6e +at6oli +68r6As s8pposed reHetion o&
sienti&i pro)ress, or o& Bdo)matiB obs8rantism opposed to t6e &ree sear6 &or tr8t6$
B8t s8rel7 t6e 4ol7 InK8isition 8s6erin) t6e elderl7 and in&irm /alileo in to inspet t6e
instr8ments o& tort8re in t6e d8n)eons o& t6e +68r6 not onl7 admits b8t reK8ires H8st s86 an
interpretation$ 36is (as not mere sienti&i a8tion and restraint, a rel8tane to s6i&t a
paradi)m 8ntil ompellin) e'idene, s86 as t6e ann8al parallaC, (as a'ailable$ 36is (as &ear
o& dis8ssion and debate$ +ensorin) alternati'e 'ie(s and t6reatenin) to tort8re t6eir
proponents betra7 a lak o& &ait6 in t6e 'er7 dotrine and paris6ioners t6at are ostensibl7 bein)
proteted$ *67 (ere t6reats and /alileoAs 6o8se arrest neededD +annot tr8t6 de&end itsel& in its
on&rontation (it6 errorD
36e 0ope does, t6o8)6, )o on to add:
36e error o& t6e t6eolo)ians o& t6e time, (6en t6e7 maintained t6e entralit7 o& t6e eart6, (as to
t6ink t6at o8r 8nderstandin) o& t6e p67sial (orldAs str8t8re (as in soiree (a7 imposed b7 t6e
literal sense o& Sared Sript8res$
4ere indeed onsiderable pro)ress 6as been madeGalt6o8)6 proponents o& &8ndamentalist &ait6s
(ill be distressed to 6ear &rom t6e 0onti&& t6at Sared Sript8re is not al(a7s literall7 tr8e$
B8t i& t6e Bible is not e'er7(6ere literall7 tr8e, (6i6 parts are di'inel7 inspired and (6i6
are merel7 &allible and 68manD ,s soon as (e admit t6at t6ere are sript8ral mistakes =or
onessions to t6e i)norane o& t6e times<, t6en 6o( an t6e Bible be an inerrant )8ide to et6is
and moralsD 5i)6t sets and indi'id8als no( aept as a8t6enti t6e parts o& t6e Bible t6e7 like,
and reHet t6ose t6at are inon'enient or b8rdensomeD 0ro6ibitions a)ainst m8rder, sa7, are
essential &or a soiet7 to &8ntion, b8t i& di'ine retrib8tion &or m8rder is onsidered impla8sible,
(onAt more people t6ink t6e7 an )et a(a7 (it6 itD
5an7 &elt t6at +operni8s and /alileo (ere 8p to no )ood and erosi'e o& t6e soial order$
Indeed an7 6allen)e
&rom an7 so8re, to t6e literal tr8t6 o& t6e Bible mi)6t 6a'e s86 onseK8enes$ *e an readil7
see 6o( siene be)an to make people ner'o8s$ Instead o& ritiiIin) t6ose (6o perpet8ated t6e
m7t6s, p8bli ranor (as direted at t6ose (6o disredited t6em$
OUR ANCESTORS UNDERSTOOD ori)ins b7 eCtrapolatin) &rom t6eir o(n eCperiene$ 4o( else
o8ld t6e7 6a'e done itD So t6e 1ni'erse (as 6at6ed &rom a osmi e)), or onei'ed in t6e
31
seC8al on)ress o& a mot6er )od and a &at6er )od, or (as a kind o& prod8t o& t6e +reatorAs
(orks6opGper6aps t6e latest o& man7 &la(ed attempts$ ,nd t6e 1ni'erse (as not m86 bi))er
t6an (e see, and not m86 older t6an o8r (ritten or oral reords, and no(6ere 'er7 di&&erent
&rom plaes t6at (e kno($
*eA'e tended in o8r osmolo)ies to make t6in)s &amiliar$ !espite all o8r best e&&orts, (eA'e
not been 'er7 in'enti'e$ In t6e *est, 4ea'en is plaid and &l8&&7, and 4ell is like t6e inside o& a
'olano$ In man7 stories, bot6 realms are )o'erned b7 dominane 6ierar6ies 6eaded b7 )ods or
de'ils$ 5onot6eists talked abo8t t6e kin) o& kin)s$ In e'er7 8lt8re (e ima)ined somet6in) like
o8r o(n politial s7stem r8nnin) t6e 1ni'erse$ %e( &o8nd t6e similarit7 s8spiio8s$
36en siene ame alon) and ta8)6t 8s t6at (e are not t6e meas8re o& all t6in)s, t6at t6ere
are (onders 8nima)ined, t6at t6e 1ni'erse is not obli)ed to on&orm to (6at (e onsider
om&ortable or pla8sible$ *e 6a'e learned somet6in) abo8t t6e idios7nrati nat8re o& o8r
ommon sense$ Siene 6as arried 68man sel&-onsio8sness to a 6i)6er le'el$ 36is is s8rel7 a
rite o& passa)e, a step to(ards mat8rit7$ It ontrasts starkl7 (it6 t6e 6ildis6ness and narissism
o& o8r pre-+opernian notions$
B8t (67 s6o8ld (e (ant to t6ink t6at t6e 1ni'erse (as made &or 8sD *67 is t6e idea so
appealin)D *67 do (e n8rt8re itD Is o8r sel&-esteem so preario8s t6at not6in) s6ort o& a
8ni'erse 8stom-made &or 8s (ill doD
2& o8rse it appeals to o8r 'anit7$ B*6at a man desires, 6e also ima)ines to be tr8e,B said
!emost6enes$ B36e li)6t o& &ait6 makes 8s see (6at (e belie'e,B 6eer&8ll7 admitted St$ 36omas
,K8inas$ B8t I t6ink t6ere ma7 be somet6in) else$ 36ereAs a kind o& et6noentrism amon)
primates$ 3o (6i6e'er little )ro8p (e 6appen to be born, (e o(e passionate lo'e and lo7alt7$
5embers o& ot6er )ro8ps are beneat6 ontempt, deser'in) o& reHetion and 6ostilit7$ 36at bot6
)ro8ps are$ o& t6e same speies, t6at to an o8tside obser'er t6e7 are 'irt8all7 indistin)8is6able,
makes no di&&erene$ 36is is ertainl7 t6e pattern amon) t6e 6impanIees, o8r losest relati'es in
t6e animal kin)dom$ ,nn !r87an and I 6a'e desribed 6o( t6is (a7 o& 'ie(in) t6e (orld ma7
6a'e made enormo8s e'ol8tionar7 sense a &e( million 7ears a)o, 6o(e'er dan)ero8s it 6as
beome toda7$ E'en members o& 68nter-)at6erer )ro8psGas &ar &rom t6e te6nolo)ial &eats o&
o8r present )lobal i'iliIation as it is possible &or 68mans to beGsolemnl7 desribe t6eir little
band, (6i6e'er it is, as Bt6e people$B E'er7one else is somet6in) di&&erent, somet6in) less t6an
68man$
I& t6is is o8r nat8ral (a7 o& 'ie(in) t6e (orld, t6en it s6o8ld oasion no s8rprise t6at e'er7
time (e make a nai'e H8d)ment abo8t o8r plae in t6e 1ni'erseGone 8ntempered b7 are&8l and
skeptial sienti&i eCaminationG(e almost al(a7s opt &or t6e entralit7 o& o8r )ro8p and
ir8mstane$ *e (ant to belie'e, moreo'er, t6at t6ese are obHeti'e &ats, and not o8r preH8dies
&indin) a santioned 'ent$
So itAs not m86 &8n to 6a'e a )a))le o& sientists inessantl7 6aran)8in) 8s (it6 B:o8Are
ordinar7, 7o8Are 8nimportant 7o8r pri'ile)es are 8ndeser'ed, t6ereAs not6in) speial abo8t 7o8$B
E'en 8neCitable people mi)6t, a&ter a (6ile, )ro( anno7ed at t6is inantation and t6ose (6o
insist on 6antin) it$ It almost seems t6at t6e sientists are )ettin) some (eird satis&ation o8t o&
p8ttin) 68mans do(n$ *67 anAt t6e7 &ind a (a7 in (6i6 (eAre s8periorD .i&t o8r spiritsF ECalt
8sF In s86 debates siene, (it6 its mantra o& diso8ra)ement, &eels old and remote,
dispassionate, deta6ed, 8nresponsi'e to 68man needs$
3"
,nd, a)ain, i& (eAre not important, not entral, not t6e apple o& /odAs e7e, (6at is implied
&or o8r t6eolo)iall7 based moral odesD 36e diso'er7 o& o8r tr8e bearin)s in t6e +osmos (as
resisted &or so lon) and to s86 a de)ree t6at man7 traes o& t6e debate remain, sometimes (it6
t6e moti'es o& t6e )eoentrists laid bare$ 4ere, &or eCample, is a re'ealin) 8nsi)ned ommentar7
in t6e Britis6 re'ie( /(e Spe7"a"or in 1;9":
QIRt is ertain eno8)6 t6at t6e diso'er7 o& t6e 6elioentri motion o& t6e planets (6i6 red8ed
o8r eart6 to its proper Binsi)ni&ianeB in t6e solar s7stem, did a )ood deal to red8e to a similar b8t
&ar &rom proper Binsi)ni&ianeB t6e moral priniples b7 (6i6 t6e predominant raes o& t6e eart6 6ad
6it6erto been )8ided and restrained$ 0art o& t6is e&&et (as no do8bt d8e to t6e e'idene a&&orded t6at
t6e p67sial siene o& 'ario8s inspired (riters (as erroneo8s instead o& bein) in&allible,-a on'ition
(6i6 8nd8l7 s6ook t6e on&idene &elt e'en in t6eir moral and reli)io8s tea6in)$ B8t a )ood deal o&
it (as d8e onl7 to t6e mere sense o& Binsi)ni&ianeB (it6 (6i6 man 6as ontemplated 6imsel&, sine
6e 6as diso'ered t6at 6e in6abits not6in) b8t a 'er7 obs8re orner o& t6e 8ni'erse, instead o& t6e
entral (orld ro8nd (6i6 s8n, moon, and stars alike re'ol'ed$ 36ere an be no do8bt t6at man ma7
&eel 6imsel&, and 6as o&ten &elt 6imsel&, a )reat deal too insi)ni&iant to be t6e obHet o& an7 parti8lar
di'ine trainin) or are$ I& t6e eart6 be re)arded as a sort o& ant-6ill, and t6e li&e and deat6 o& 68man
bein)s as t6e li&e and deat6 o& so man7 ants (6i6 r8n into and o8t o& so man7 6oles in sear6 o& &ood
and s8nli)6t, it is K8ite ertain t6at no adeK8ate importane (ill be atta6ed to t6e d8ties o& 68man
li&e, and t6at a pro&o8nd &atalism and 6opelessness, instead o& ne( 6ope&8lness, (ill atta6 to 68man
e&&ort $ $ $
Q%Ror t6e present at least, o8r 6oriIons are K8ite 'ast eno8)6 $ $ $ ? till (e an )et 8sed to t6e
in&inite 6oriIons (e alread7 6a'e, and not lose o8r balane so m86 as (e 8s8all7 do in
ontemplatin) t6em, t6e 7earnin) &or still (ider 6oriIons is premat8re$
WHAT DO WE REALLY WANT &rom p6ilosop67 and reli)ionD 0alliati'esD 36erap7D +om&ortD !o
(e (ant reass8rin) &ables or an 8nderstandin) o& o8r at8al ir8mstanesD !isma7 t6at t6e
1ni'erse does not on&orm to o8r pre&erenes seems 6ildis6$ :o8 mi)6t t6ink t6at )ro(n-8ps
(o8ld be as6amed to p8t s86 disappointments into print$ 36e &as6ionable (a7 o& doin) t6is is
not to blame t6e 1ni'erseG(6i6 seems tr8l7 pointlessGb8t rat6er to blame t6e means b7
(6i6 (e kno( t6e 1ni'erse, namel7 siene$
/eor)e Bernard S6a(, in t6e pre&ae to 6is pla7 St$ >oan, desribed a sense o& siene
pre7in) on o8r red8lit7, &orin) on 8s an alien (orld'ie(, intimidatin) belie&:
In t6e 5iddle ,)es, people belie'ed t6at t6e Eart6 (as &lat, &or (6i6 t6e7 6ad at least t6e e'idene
o& t6eir senses: (e belie'e it to be ro8nd, not bea8se as man7 as one per ent o& 8s o8ld )i'e t6e
p67sial reason &or so K8aint a belie&, b8t bea8se modern siene 6as on'ined 8s t6at not6in) t6at
is ob'io8s is tr8e, and t6at e'er7t6in) t6at is ma)ial, improbable, eCtraordinar7, )i)anti,
mirosopi, 6eartless, or o8tra)eo8s is sienti&i$
, more reent and 'er7 instr8ti'e eCample is Understanding t6e Present: Science
33
and the Soul o5 Mo)ern Man9 b7 Br7an ,pple7ard, a Britis6 Ho8rnalist$ 36is book makes
eCpliit (6at man7 people &eel, all o'er t6e (orld, b8t are too embarrassed to sa7$ ,pple7ardAs
andor is re&res6in)$ 4e is a tr8e belie'er and (ill not let 8s slo8)6 o'er t6e ontraditions
bet(een modern siene and traditional reli)ion:
BSiene 6as taken a(a7 o8r reli)ion,B 6e laments$ ,nd (6at sort o& reli)ion is it t6at 6e
lon)s &orD 2ne in (6i6 Bt6e 68man rae (as t6e point, t6e 6eart, t6e &inal a8se o& t6e (6ole
s7stem$ It plaed o8r sel'es de&initi'el7 8pon t6e 8ni'ersal map$B $ $ $ B*e (ere t6e end, t6e
p8rpose, t6e rational aCle aro8nd (6i6 t6e )reat aet6erian s6ells rotated$B 4e lon)s &or Bt6e
8ni'erse o& +at6oli ort6odoC7B in (6i6 Bt6e osmos is s6o(n to be a ma6ine onstr8ted
aro8nd t6e drama o& sal'ationBGb7 (6i6 ,pple7ard means t6at, despite eCpliit orders to t6e
ontrar7, a (oman and a man one ate o& an apple, and t6at t6is at o& ins8bordination
trans&ormed t6e 1ni'erse into a ontri'ane &or operant-onditionin) t6eir remote desendants$
B7 ontrast, modern siene Bpresents 8s as aidents$ *e are a8sed b7 t6e osmos, b8t (e
are not t6e a8se o& it$ 5odem man is not &inall7 an7t6in), 6e 6as no role in reation$B Siene
is Bspirit8all7 orrosi'e, b8rnin) a(a7 anient a8t6orities and traditions$ It annot reall7 o-eCist
(it6 an7t6in)$B $ $ $ BSiene, K8ietl7 and ineCpliitl7, is talkin) 8s into abandonin) o8r sel'es,
o8r tr8e sel'es$B It re'eals Bt6e m8te, alien spetale o& nat8re$B $ $ $ B48man bein)s annot li'e
(it6 s86 a re'elation$ 36e onl7 moralit7 le&t is t6at o& t6e onsolin) lie$B ,n7t6in) is better
t6an )rapplin) (it6 t6e 8nbearable b8rden o& bein) tin7$
In a passa)e reminisent o& 0l8s I9, ,pple7ard e'en deries t6e &at t6at Ba modern
demora7 an be eCpeted to inl8de a n8mber o& ontraditor7 reli)io8s &ait6s (6i6 are
obli)ed to a)ree on a ertain limited n8mber o& )eneral inH8ntions, b8t no more$ 36e7 m8st not
b8rn ea6 ot6erAs plaes o& (ors6ip, b8t t6e7 ma7 den7, e'en ab8se ea6 ot6erAs /od$ 36is is t6e
e&&eti'e, sienti&i (a7 o& proeedin)$B
B8t (6at is t6e alternati'eD 2bd8ratel7 to pretend to ertaint7 in an 8nertain (orldD 3o
adopt a om&ortin) belie& s7stem, no matter 6o( o8t o& kilter (it6 t6e &ats it isD I& (e donAt
kno( (6atAs real, 6o( an (e deal (it6 realit7D %or pratial reasons, (e annot li'e too m86
in &antas7land$ S6all (e ensor one anot6erAs reli)ions and b8rn do(n one anot6erAs plaes o&
(ors6ipD 4o( an (e be s8re (6i6 o& t6e t6o8sands o& 68man belie& s7stems s6o8ld beome
8n6allen)ed, 8biK8ito8s, mandator7D
36ese K8otations betra7 a &ail8re o& ner'e be&ore t6e 1ni'erse its )rande8r and
ma)ni&iene, b8t espeiall7 its indi&&erene$ Siene 6as ta8)6t 8s t6at, bea8se (e 6a'e a talent
&or deei'in) o8rsel'es, s8bHeti'it7 ma7 not &reel7 rei)n$ 36is is one reason ,pple7ard so
mistr8sts siene: It seems too reasoned, meas8red, and impersonal$ Its onl8sions deri'e &rom
t6e interro)ation o& Nat8re, and are not in all ases predesi)ned to satis&7 o8r (ants$ ,pple7ard
deplores moderation$ 4e 7earns &or inerrant dotrine, release &rom t6e eCerise o& H8d)ment, and
an obli)ation to belie'e b8t not to K8estion$ 4e 6as not )rasped 68man &allibilit7$ 4e reo)niIes
no need to instit8tionaliIe error-orretin) ma6iner7 eit6er in o8r soial instit8tions or in o8r
'ie( o& t6e 1ni'erse$
36is is t6e an)8is6ed r7 o& t6e in&ant (6en t6e 0arent does not ome$ B8t most people
e'ent8all7 ome to )rips (it6 realit7, and (it6 t6e pain&8l absene o& parents (6o (ill absol8tel7
)8arantee t6at no 6arm be&alls t6e little ones so lon) as t6e7 do (6at t6e7 are told$ E'ent8all7
most people &ind (a7s to aommodate to t6e 1ni'erseGespeiall7 (6en )i'en t6e tools to
34
t6ink strai)6t$
B,ll t6at (e pass on to o8r 6ildrenB in t6e sienti&i a)e, ,pple7ard omplains, Bis t6e
on'ition t6at not6in) is tr8e, &inal or end8rin), inl8din) t6e 8lt8re &rom (6i6 t6e7 spran)$B
4o( ri)6t 6e is abo8t t6e inadeK8a7 o& o8r le)a7$ B8t (o8ld it be enri6ed b7 addin) baseless
ertaintiesD 4e sorns Bt6e pio8s 6ope t6at siene and reli)ion are independent realms (6i6
an easil7 be separated$B Instead, Bsiene, as it is no(, is absol8tel7 not ompatible (it6
reli)ion$B
B8t isnAt ,pple7ard reall7 sa7in) t6at some reli)ions no( &ind it di&&i8lt to make
8n6allen)ed prono8nements on t6e nat8re o& t6e (orld t6at are strai)6t-o8t &alseD *e
reo)niIe t6at e'en re'ered reli)io8s leaders, t6e prod8ts o& t6eir time as (e are o& o8rs, ma7
6a'e made mistakes$ -eli)ions ontradit one anot6er on small matters, s86 as (6et6er (e
s6o8ld p8t on a 6at or take one o&& on enterin) a 6o8se o& (ors6ip, or (6et6er (e s6o8ld eat bee&
and es6e( pork or t6e ot6er (a7 aro8nd, all t6e (a7 to t6e most entral iss8es, s86 as (6et6er
t6ere are no )ods, one /od, or man7 )ods$
Siene 6as bro8)6t man7 o& 8s to t6at state in (6i6 Nat6aniel 4a(t6orne &o8nd 4erman
5el'ille: B4e an neit6er belie'e, nor be om&ortable in 6is 8nbelie&$B 2r >ean->aK8es
-o8ssea8: B36e7 6ad not pers8aded me, b8t t6e7 6ad tro8bled me$ 36eir ar)8ments 6ad s6aken
me (it6o8t e'er on'inin) me $ $ $ It is 6ard to pre'ent onesel& &rom belie'in) (6at one so
keenl7 desires$B ,s t6e belie& s7stems ta8)6t b7 t6e se8lar and reli)io8s a8t6orities are
8ndennined, respet &or a8t6orit7 in )eneral probabl7 does erode$ 36e lesson is lear: E'en
politisR leaders m8st be (ar7 o& embrain) &alse dotrine$ 36is is not a &ailin) o& siene, b8t
one o& its )raes$
2& o8rse, (orld'ie( onsens8s is om&ortin), (6ile las6es o& opinion ma7 be 8nsettlin),
and demand more o& 8s$ B8t 8nless (e insist, a)ainst all e'idene, t6at o8r anestors (ere
per&et, t6e ad'ane o& kno(led)e reK8ires 8s to 8nra'el and t6en restit6 t6e onsens8s t6e7
establis6ed$
In some respets, siene 6as &ar s8rpassed reli)ion in deli'erin) a(e$ 4o( is it t6at 6ardl7
an7 maHor reli)ion 6as looked at siene and onl8ded, B36is is better t6an (e t6o8)6tF 36e
1ni'erse is m86 bi))er t6an o8r prop6ets said, )rander, more s8btle, more ele)ant$ /od m8st be
e'en )reater t6an (e dreamedBD Instead t6e7 sa7, BNo, no, noF 57 )od is a little )od, and I (ant
6im to sta7 t6at (a7$B , reli)ion, old or ne(, t6at stressed t6e ma)ni&iene o& t6e 1ni'erse as
re'ealed b7 modern siene mi)6t be able to dra( &ort6 reser'es o& re'erene and a(e 6ardl7
tapped b7 t6e on'entional &ait6s$ Sooner or later, s86 a reli)ion (ill emer)e$
IF YOU LIVED t(o or t6ree millennia a)o, t6ere (as no s6ame in 6oldin) t6at t6e 1ni'erse (as
made &or 8s$ It (as an appealin) t6esis onsistent (it6 e'er7t6in) (e kne(? it (as (6at t6e
most learned amon) 8s ta8)6t (it6o8t K8ali&iation$ B8t (e 6a'e &o8nd o8t m86 sine t6en$
!e&endin) s86 a position toda7 amo8nts to (ill&8l disre)ard o& t6e e'idene, and a &li)6t &rom
sel&-kno(led)e$
Still, &or man7 o& 8s, t6ese depro'inialiIations rankle$ E'en i& t6e7 do not &8ll7 antA t6e
da7, t6e7 erode on&ideneG8nlike t6e 6app7 ant6ropoentri ertit8des, ripplin) (it6 soial
8tilit7, o& an earlier a)e$ *e lon) to be 6ere &or a p8rpose, e'en t6o8)6, despite m86 sel&-
35
deeption, none is e'ident$ B36e meanin)less abs8rdit7 o& li&e,B (rote .eo 3olsto7, Bis t6e onl7
inontestable kno(led)e aessible to man$B 28r time is b8rdened 8nder t6e 8m8lati'e (ei)6t
o& s8essi'e deb8nkin)s o& o8r oneits: *eAre >o6nn7-ome-latelies$ *e li'e in t6e osmi
boondoks$ *e emer)ed &rom mirobes and m8k$ ,pes are o8r o8sins$ 28r t6o8)6ts and
&eelin)s are not &8ll7 8nder o8r o(n ontrol$ 36ere ma7 be m86 smarter and 'er7 di&&erent
bein)s else(6ere$ ,nd on top o& all t6is, (eAre makin) a mess o& o8r planet and beomin) a
dan)er to o8rsel'es$
36e trapdoor beneat6 o8r &eet s(in)s open$ *e &ind o8rsel'es in bottomless &ree &all$ *e
are lost in a )reat darkness, and t6ereAs no one to send o8t a sear6 part7$ /i'en so 6ars6 a
realit7, o& o8rse (eAre tempted to s68t o8r e7es and pretend t6at (eAre sa&e and sn8) at 6ome,
t6at t6e &all is onl7 a bad dream$
*e lak onsens8s abo8t o8r plae in t6e 1ni'erse$ 36ere is no )enerall7 a)reed 8pon lon)-
term 'ision o& t6e )oal o& o8r speiesGot6er t6an, per6aps, simple s8r'i'al$ Espeiall7 (6en
times are 6ard, (e beome desperate &or eno8ra)ement, 8nreepti'e to t6e litan7 o& )reat
demotions and das6ed 6opes, and m86 more (illin) to 6ear t6at (eAre speial, ne'er mind i& t6e
e'idene is paper-t6in$ I& it takes a little m7t6 and rit8al to )et 8s t6ro8)6 a ni)6t t6at seems
endless, (6o amon) 8s annot s7mpat6iIe and 8nderstandD
B8t i& o8r obHeti'e is deep kno(led)e rat6er t6an s6allo( reass8rane, t6e )ains &rom t6is
ne( perspeti'e &ar o8t(ei)6 t6e losses$ 2ne (e o'erome o8r &ear o& bein) tin7, (e &ind
o8rsel'es on t6e t6res6old o& a 'ast and a(esome 1ni'erse t6at 8tterl7 d(ar&sGin time, in
spae, and in potentialGt6e tid7 ant6ropoentri proseni8m o& o8r anestors$ *e )aIe aross
billions o& li)6t-7ears o& spae to 'ie( t6e 1ni'erse s6ortl7 a&ter t6e Bi) Ban), and pl8mb t6e
&ine str8t8re o& matter$ *e peer do(n into t6e ore o& o8r planet, and t6e blaIin) interior o& o8r
star$ *e read t6e )eneti lan)8a)e in (6i6 is (ritten t6e di'erse skills and propensities o& e'er7
bein) on Eart6$ *e 8no'er 6idden 6apters in t6e reord o& o8r o(n ori)ins, and (it6 some
an)8is6 better 8nderstand o8r nat8re and prospets$ *e in'ent and re&ine a)ri8lt8re, (it6o8t
(6i6 almost all o& 8s (o8ld star'e to deat6$ *e reate mediines and 'aines t6at sa'e t6e
li'es o& billions$ *e omm8niate at t6e speed o& li)6t, and (6ip aro8nd t6e Eart6 in an 6o8r
and a 6al&$ *e 6a'e sent doIens o& s6ips to more t6an se'ent7 (orlds, and &o8r spaera&t to t6e
stars$ *e are ri)6t to reHoie in o8r aomplis6ments, to be pro8d t6at o8r speies 6as been able
to see so &ar, and to H8d)e o8r merit in part b7 t6e 'er7 siene t6at 6as so de&lated o8r
pretensions$
3o o8r anestors t6ere (as m86 in Nat8re to be a&raid o&Gli)6tnin), storms, eart6K8akes,
'olanos, pla)8es, dro8)6t, lon) (inters$ -eli)ions arose in part as attempts to propitiate and
ontrol, i& not m86 to 8nderstand, t6e disorderl7 aspet o& Nat8re$ 36e sienti&i re'ol8tion
permitted 8s to )limpse an 8nderl7in) ordered 1ni'erse in (6i6 t6ere (as a literal 6armon7 o&
t6e (orlds =>o6annes EeplerAs p6rase<$ I& (e 8nderstand Nat8re, t6ere is a prospet o&
ontrollin) it or at least miti)atin) t6e 6arm it ma7 brin)$ In t6is sense, siene bro8)6t 6ope$
5ost o& t6e )reat depro'inialiIin) debates (ere entered into (it6 no t6o8)6t &or t6eir
pratial impliations$ 0assionate and 8rio8s 68mans (is6ed to 8nderstand t6eir at8al
ir8mstanes, 6o( 8niK8e or pedestrian t6e7 and t6eir (orld are, t6eir 8ltimate ori)ins and
destinies, 6o( t6e 1ni'erse (orks$ S8rprisin)l7, some o& t6ese debates 6a'e 7ielded t6e most
pro&o8nd pratial bene&its$ 36e 'er7 met6od o& mat6ematial reasonin) t6at Isaa Ne(ton
36
introd8ed to eCplain t6e motion o& t6e planets aro8nd t6e S8n 6as led to most o& t6e te6nolo)7
Of o8r modern (orld$ 36e Ind8strial -e'ol8tion, &or all its s6ortomin)s, is still t6e )lobal
model o& 6o( an a)ri8lt8ral nation an emer)e &rom po'ert7$ 36ese debates 6a'e bread-and-
b8tter onseK8enes$
It mi)6t 6a'e been ot6er(ise$ It mi)6t 6a'e been t6at t6e balane la7 else(6ere, t6at 68mans
b7 and lar)e did not (ant to 7a( abo8t a disK8ietin) 1ni'erse, t6at (e (ere 8n(illin) to 6ermit
6allen)es to t6e pre'ailin) (isdom$ !espite determined resistane in e'er7 a)e, it is 'er7 m86
to o8r redit t6at (e 6a'e allo(ed o8rsel'es to &ollo( t6e e'idene, to dra( onl8sions t6at at
&irst seem da8ntin): a 1ni'erse so m86 lar)er and older t6at o8r personal and 6istorial
eCperiene is d(ar&ed and 68mbled, a 1ni'erse in (6i6, e'er7 da7, s8ns are born and (orlds
obliterated, a 1ni'erse in (6i6 68manit7, ne(l7 arri'ed, lin)s to an obs8re lod o& matter$
4o( m86 more satis&7in) 6ad (e been plaed in a )arden 8stom-made &or 8s, its ot6er
o8pants p8t t6ere &or 8s to 8se as (e sa( &it$ 36ere is a elebrated stor7 in t6e *estern
tradition like t6is, eCept t6at not K8ite e'er7t6in) (as t6ere &or 8s$ 36ere (as one parti8lar tree
o& (6i6 (e (ere not to partake, a tree o& kno(led)e$ Eno(led)e and 8nderstandin) and
(isdom (ere &orbidden to 8s in t6is stor7$ *e (ere to be kept i)norant$ B8t (e o8ldnAt 6elp
o8rsel'es$ *e (ere star'in) &or kno(led)eGreated 68n)r7, 7o8 mi)6t sa7$ 36is (as t6e ori)in
o& all o8r tro8bles$ In parti8lar, it is (67 (e no lon)er li'e in a )arden: *e &o8nd o8t too m86$
So lon) as (e (ere in8rio8s and obedient, I ima)ine, (e o8ld onsole o8rsel'es (it6 o8r
importane and entralit7, and tell o8rsel'es t6at (e (ere t6e reason t6e 1ni'erse (as made$ ,s
(e be)an to ind8l)e o8r 8riosit7, t6o8)6, to eCplore, to learn 6o( t6e 1ni'erse reall7 is, (e
eCpelled o8rsel'es &rom Eden$ ,n)els (it6 a &lamin) s(ord (ere set as sentries at t6e )ates o&
0aradise to bar o8r ret8rn$ 36e )ardeners beame eCiles and (anderers$ 2asionall7 (e mo8rn
t6at lost (orld, b8t t6at, it seems to me, is ma8dlin and sentimental$ *e o8ld not 6appil7 6a'e
remained i)norant &ore'er$
36ere is in t6is 1ni'erse m86 o& (6at seems to 6e desi)n$ E'er7 time (e ome 8pon it, (e
breat6e a si)6 o& relie&$ *e are &ore'er 6opin) to &ind, or at least sa&el7 ded8e, a !esi)ner$ B8t
instead, (e repeatedl7 diso'er t6at nat8ral proessesGollisional seletion o& (orlds, sa7, or
nat8ral seletion o& )ene pools, or e'en t6e on'etion pattern in a pot o& boilin) (aterGan
eCtrat order o8t o& 6aos, and deei'e 8s into ded8in) p8rpose (6ere t6ere is none$ In e'er7da7
li&e, (e o&ten senseGin t6e bedrooms o& teena)ers, or in national politisGt6at 6aos is nat8ral,
and order imposed &rom abo'e$ *6ile t6ere are deeper re)8larities in t6e 1ni'erse t6an t6e
simple ir8mstanes (e )enerall7 desribe as orderl7, all t6at order, simple and ompleC, seems
to deri'e &rom la(s o& Nat8re establis6ed at t6e Bi) Ban) =or earlier<, rat6er t6an as a
onseK8ene o& belated inter'ention b7 an imper&et deit7$ B/od is to be &o8nd in t6e detailsB is
t6e &amo8s dit8m o& t6e /erman s6olar ,b8 *arb8r)$ B8t, amid m86 ele)ane and preision,
t6e details o& li&e and t6e 1ni'erse also eC6ibit 6ap6aIard, H8r7-ri))ed arran)ements and m86
poor plannin)$ *6at s6all (e make o& t6is: an edi&ie abandoned earl7 in onstr8tion b7 t6e
ar6itetD
36e e'idene, so &ar at least and la(s o& Nat8re aside, does not reK8ire a !esi)ner$ 5a7be
t6ere is one 6idin), maddenin)l7 8n(illin) to be re'ealed$ Sometimes it seems a 'er7 slender
6ope$
36e si)ni&iane o& o8r li'es and o8r &ra)ile planet is t6en determined onl7 b7 o8r o(n
37
(isdom and o8ra)e$ *e are t6e 8stodians o& li&eAs meanin)$ *e lon) &or a 0arent to are &or
8s, to &or)i'e 8s o8r errors, to sa'e 8s &rom o8r 6ildis6 mistakes$ B8t kno(led)e is pre&erable
to i)norane$ Better b7 &ar to embrae t6e 6ard tr8t6 t6an a reass8rin) &able$
I& (e ra'e some osmi p8rpose, t6en let 8s &ind o8rsel'es a (ort67 )oal$
3;
+ 4 , 0 3 E - 5
IS 34E-E
IN3E..I/EN3
.I%E 2N E,-34D
36e7 Ho8rne7ed a lon) time and &o8nd not6in)$ ,t len)t6 t6e7 diserned
a small li)6t, (6i6 (as t6e Eart6 $ $ $ QB8tR t6e7 o8ld not &ind t6e
smallest reason to s8spet t6at (e and o8r &ello(GitiIens
o& t6is )lobe 6a'e t6e 6onor to eCist$

G#2.3,I-E, M!#-OME%AS3
A P1!&OSOP1!#A& 1!S/O-, (1*52)
T(ere are pla7e9 in an) aroun) our grea" 7i"ie9 <(ere "(e na"ural <orl) (a all ;u" )iappeare)3 ,ou 7an make
ou" "ree" an) i)e<alk9 au"o9 parking garage9 a)4er"iing ;ill;oar)9 monumen" o5 gla an) "eel9 ;u" no" a "ree
or a ;la)e o5 gra or an$ animal@;ei)e9 o5 7oure9 "(e (uman3 /(ere are lo" o5 (uman3 Onl$ <(en $ou look
"raig(" up "(roug( "(e k$7raper 7an$on 7an $ou make ou" a "ar or a pa"7( o5 ;lue@remin)er o5 <(a" <a "(ere
long ;e5ore (uman 7ame "o ;e3 >u" "(e ;rig(" lig(" o5 "(e ;ig 7i"ie ;lea7( ou" "(e "ar9 an) e4en "(a" pa"7( o5 ;lue
i ome"ime gone9 "in"e) ;ro<n ;$ in)u"rial "e7(nolog$3
!"6 no" (ar)9 going "o <ork e4er$ )a$ in u7( a pla7e9 "o ;e impree) <i"( ourel4e3 1o< <e64e "ran5orme)
"(e Ear"( 5or our ;ene5i" an) 7on4enien7eB >u" a 5e< (un)re) mile up or )o<n "(ere are no (uman3 Apar" 5rom a
"(in 5ilm o5 li5e a" "(e 4er$ ur5a7e o5 "(e Ear"(9 an o77aional in"repi) pa7e7ra5"9 an) ome ra)io "a"i79 our impa7"
on "(e 8ni4ere i nil3 !" kno< no"(ing o5 u3
YOU'RE AN ALIEN EXPLORER enterin) t6e Solar S7stem a&ter a lon) Ho8rne7 t6ro8)6 t6e
blakness o& interstellar spae$ :o8 eCamine t6e planets o& t6is 68mdr8m star &rom a&arGa prett7
6and&8l, some )ra7, some bl8e, some red, some 7ello($ :o8Are interested in (6at kinds o& (orlds
t6ese are, (6et6er t6eir en'ironments are stati or 6an)in), and espeiall7 (6et6er t6ere are li&e
and intelli)ene$ :o8 6a'e no prior kno(led)e o& t6e Eart6$ :o8A'e H8st diso'ered its eCistene$
39
36ereAs a )alati et6i, letAs ima)ine: .ook b8t donAt to86$ :o8 an &l7 b7 t6ese (orlds?
7o8 an orbit t6em? b8t 7o8 are stritl7 &orbidden to land$ 1nder s86 onstraints, o8ld 7o8
&i)8re o8t (6at t6e Eart6As en'ironment is like and (6et6er an7one li'es t6ereD
,s 7o8 approa6, 7o8r &irst impression o& t6e (6ole Eart6 is (6ite lo8ds, (6ite polar aps,
bro(n ontinents, and some bl8is6 s8bstane t6at o'ers t(o t6irds o& t6e s8r&ae$ *6en 7o8
take t6e temperat8re o& t6is (orld &rom t6e in&rared radiation it emits, 7o8 &ind t6at most
latit8des are abo'e t6e &reeIin) point o& (ater, (6ile t6e polar aps are belo( &reeIin)$ *ater is
a 'er7 ab8ndant material in t6e 1ni'erse? polar aps made o& solid (ater (o8ld be a reasonable
)8ess, as (ell as lo8ds o& solid and liK8id (ater$
:o8 mi)6t also 6e tempted b7 t6e idea t6at t6e bl8e st8&& is enormo8s K8antitiesG
kilometers deepGo& liK8id (ater$ 36e s8))estion is biIarre, t6o8)6, at least as &ar as t6is solar
s7stem is onerned, bea8se s8r&ae oeans o& liK8id (ater eCist no(6ere else$ *6en 7o8 look
in t6e 'isible and near-in&rared spetr8m &or telltale si)nat8res o& 6emial omposition, s8re
eno8)6 7o8 diso'er (ater ie in t6e polar aps, and eno8)6 (ater 'apor in t6e air to ao8nt
&or t6e lo8ds? t6is is also H8st t6e ri)6t amo8nt t6at m8st eCist bea8se o& e'aporation i& t6e
oeans are in &at made o& liK8id (ater$ 36e biIarre 67pot6esis is on&irmed$
36e spetrometers &8rt6er re'eal t6at t6e air on t6is (orld is one &i&t6 oC7)en, 2
"
$ No ot6er
planet in t6e Solar S7stem 6as an7t6in) lose to so m86 oC7)en$ *6ere does it all ome &romD
36e intense 8ltra'iolet li)6t &rom t6e S8n breaks (ater, 4
"
0, do(n into oC7)en and 67dro)en,
and 67dro)en, t6e li)6test )as, K8ikl7 esapes to spae$ 36is is a so8re o& 2
"
, ertainl7, b8t it
doesnAt easil7 ao8nt &or so m86 oC7)en$
,not6er possibilit7 is t6at ordinar7 'isible li)6t, (6i6 t6e S8n po8rs o8t in 'ast amo8nts,
is 8sed on Eart6 to break (ater apartGeCept t6at t6ereAs no kno(n (a7 to do t6is (it6o8t li&e$
36ere (o8ld 6a'e to be plants, li&e-&orms olored b7 a pi)ment t6at stron)l7 absorbs 'isible
li)6t, t6at kno(s 6o( to split a (ater mole8le b7 sa'in) 8p t6e ener)7 o& t(o p6otons o& li)6t,
t6at retains t6e 4 and eCretes t6e 2, and t6at 8ses t6e 67dro)en t68s liberated to s7nt6esiIe
or)ani mole8les$ 36e plants (o8ld 6a'e to be spread o'er m86 o& t6e planet$ ,ll t6is is
askin) a lot$ I& 7o8Are a )ood skeptial sientist, so m86 2I (o8ld not be proo& o& li&e$ B8t it
ertainl7 mi)6t be a8se &or s8spiion$
*it6 all t6at oC7)en 7o8Are not s8rprised to diso'er oIone =23< in t6e atmosp6ere, bea8se
8ltra'iolet li)6t makes oIone o8t o& mole8lar oC7)en =2"<$ 36e oIone t6en absorbs dan)ero8s
8ltra'iolet radiation$ So i& t6e oC7)en is d8e to li&e, t6ereAs a 8rio8s sense in (6i6 t6e li&e is
protetin) itsel&$ B8t t6is li&e Bni)6t be mere p6otos7nt6eti plants$ , 6i)6 le'el o& intelli)ene is
not implied$
*6en 7o8 eCamine t6e ontinents more losel7, 7o8 &ind t6ere are, r8del7 speakin), t(o
kinds o& re)ions$ 2ne s6o(s t6e spetr8m o& ordinar7 roks and minerals as &o8nd on man7
(orlds$ 36e ot6er re'eals somet6in) 8n8s8al: a material, o'erin) 'ast areas, t6at stron)l7
absorbs red li)6t$ =36e S8n, o& o8rse, s6ines in li)6t o& all olors, (it6 a peak in t6e 7ello($<
36is pi)ment mi)6t be H8st t6e a)ent needed i& ordinar7 'isible li)6t is bein) 8sed to break (ater
apart and ao8nt &or t6e oC7)en in t6e air$ ItAs anot6er 6int, t6is time a little stron)er, o& li&e, not
40
a b8) 6ere and t6ere, b8t a planetar7 s8r&ae o'er&lo(in) (it6 li&e$ 36e pi)ment is in &at
6lorop67ll: It absorbs bl8e li)6t as (ell as red, and is responsible &or t6e &at t6at plants are
)reen$ *6at 7o8Are seein) is a densel7 'e)etated planet$
So t6e Eart6 is re'ealed to possess t6ree properties 8niK8e at least in t6is solar s7stemG
oeans, oC7)en, li&e$ ItAs 6ard not to t6ink t6e7Are related, t6e oeans bein) t6e sites o& ori)in, and
t6e oC7)en t6e prod8t, o& ab8ndant li&e$
*6en 7o8 look are&8ll7 at t6e in&rared spetr8m o& t6e Eart6, 7o8 diso'er t6e minor
onstit8ents o& t6e air$ In addition to (ater 'apor, t6ereAs arbon dioCide =+2
"
<, met6ane =+4
4
<,
and ot6er )ases t6at absorb t6e 6eat t6at t6e Eart6 tries to radiate a(a7 to spae at ni)6t$ 36ese
)ases (arm t6e planet$ *it6o8t t6em, t6e Eart6 (o8ld e'er7(6ere be belo( t6e &reeIin) point
o& (ater$ :o8A'e diso'ered t6is (orldAs )reen6o8se e&&et$
5et6ane and oC7)en to)et6er in t6e same atmosp6ere is pe8liar$ 36e la(s o& 6emistr7 are
'er7 lear: In an eCess o& 2
"
, +4
4
s6o8ld be entirel7 on'erted into 4
"
2 and +2
"
, 36e proess
is so e&&iient t6at not a sin)le mole8le in all t6e Eart6As atmosp6ere s6o8ld be met6ane$ Instead,
7o8 &ind t6at one o8t o& e'er7 million mole8les is met6ane, ail immense disrepan7$ *6at
o8ld it meanD
36e onl7 possible eCplanation is t6at met6ane is bein) inHeted into t6e Eart6As atmosp6ere
so K8ikl7 t6at its 6emial reation (it6 2I anAt keep pae$ *6ere does all t6is met6ane
ome &romD 5a7be it seeps o8t o& t6e deep interior o& t6e Eart6Gb8t K8antitati'el7 t6is doesnAt
seem to (ork, and 5ars and #en8s donAt 6a'e an7t6in) like t6is m86 met6ane$ 36e onl7
alternati'es are biolo)ial, a onl8sion t6at makes no ass8mptions abo8t t6e 6emistr7 o& li&e,
or (6at it looks like, b8t &ollo(s merel7 &rom 6o( 8nstable met6ane is in an oC7)en
atmosp6ere$ In &at, t6e met6ane arises &rom s86 so8res as bateria in bo)s, t6e 8lti'ation o&
rie, t6e b8rnin) o& 'e)etation, nat8ral )as &rom oil (ells, and bo'ine &lat8lene$ In an oC7)en
atmosp6ere, met6ane is a si)n o& li&e$
36at t6e intimate intestinal ati'ities o& o(s s6o8ld be detetable &rom interplanetar7
spae is a little disonertin), espeiall7 (6en so m86 o& (6at (e 6old dear is not$ B8t an
alien sientist &l7in) b7 t6e Eart6 (o8ld, at t6is point, be 8nable to ded8e bo)s, rie, &ire, oil,
or o(s$ >8st li&e$
,ll t6e si)ns o& li&e t6at (eA'e dis8ssed so &ar are d8e to omparati'el7 simple &orms =t6e
met6ane in t6e r8mens o& o(s is )enerated b7 bateria t6at 6omestead t6ere<$ 4ad 7o8r
spaera&t &lo(n b7 t6e Eart6 a 68ndred million 7ears a)o, in t6e a)e o& t6e dinosa8rs (6en
t6ere (ere no 68mans and no te6nolo)7, 7o8 (o8ld still 6a'e seen oC7)en and oIone, t6e7
6lorop67ll pi)ment, and &ar too m86 met6ane$ ,t present, t6o8)6, 7o8r instr8ments are
&indin) si)ns not H8st o& li&e, b8t o& 6i)6 te6nolo)7Gsomet6in) t6at o8ldnAt possibl7 6a'e
been deteted e'en a 68ndred 7ears a)o:
:o8 are detetin) a parti8lar kind o& radio (a'e emanatin) &rom Eart6$ -adio (a'es
donAt neessaril7 si)ni&7 li&e and intelli)ene 5an7 nat8ral proesses )enerate t6em$ :o8A'e
alread7 &o8nd radio emissions &rom ot6er, apparentl7 8nin6abited (orldsG)enerated b7
eletrons trapped in t6e stron) ma)neti &ields o& planets, b7 6aoti motions at t6e s6ok &ront
41
t6at separates t6ese ma)neti &ields &rom t6e interplanetar7 ma)neti &ield, and b7 li)6tnin)$
=-adio B(6istlersB 8s8all7 s(eep &rom 6i)6 notes to lo(, and t6en be)in a)ain$< Some o& t6ese
radio emissions are ontin8o8s? some ome in repetiti'e b8rsts? some last a &e( min8tes and
t6en disappear$
B8t t6is is di&&erent: , portion o& t6e radio transmission &rom Eart6 is at H8st t6e
&reK8enies (6ere radio (a'es be)in to leak o8t o& t6e planetAs ionosp6ere, t6e eletriall7
6ar)ed re)ion abo'e t6e stratosp6ere t6at re&lets and absorbs radio (a'es$ 36ere is a onstant
entral &reK8en7 &or ea6 transmission, added to (6i6 is a mod8lated si)nal =a ompleC
seK8ene o& ons and o&&s<$ No eletrons in ma)neti &ields, no s6ok (a'es, no li)6tnin)
dis6ar)es an )enerate somet6in) like t6is$ Intelli)ent li&e seems to be t6e onl7 possible
eCplanation$ :o8r onl8sion t6at t6e radio transmission is d8e to te6nolo)7 on Eart6 6olds no
matter (6at t6e ons and o&&s mean: :o8 donAt 6a'e to deode t6e messa)e to be s8re it is a
messa)e$ =36is si)nal is reall7, let 8s s8ppose, omm8niations &rom t6e 1$S$ Na'7 to its
distant n8lear-armed s8bmarines$<
So, as an alien eCplorer, 7o8 (o8ld kno( t6at at least one speies on Eart6 6as a6ie'ed
radio te6nolo)7$ *6i6 one is itD 36e bein)s t6at make met6aneD 36ose t6at )enerate oC7)enD
36e ones (6ose pi)ment olors t6e landsape )reenD 2r somebod7 else, somebod7 more
s8btle, someone not ot6er(ise detetable to a spaera&t pl8mmetin) b7D 3o sear6 &or t6is
te6nolo)ial speies, 7o8 mi)6t (ant to eCamine t6e Eart6 at &iner and &iner resol8tionG
seekin), i& not t6e bein)s t6emsel'es, at least t6eir arti&ats$
:o8 look &irst (it6 a modest telesope, so t6e &inest detail 7o8 an resol'e is one or t(o
kilometers aross$ :o8 an make o8t no mon8mental ar6itet8re, no stran)e &ormations, no
8nnat8ral re(orkin) o& t6e landsape, no si)ns o& li&e$ :o8 see a dense atmosp6ere in motion$
36e ab8ndant (ater m8st e'aporate and t6en rain bak do(n$ ,nient impat raters, apparent
on t6e Eart6As nearb7 5oon, are almost (6oll7 absent$ 36ere m8st, t6en, be a set o& proesses
(6ereb7 ne( land is reated and t6en eroded a(a7 in m86 less time t6an t6e a)e o& t6is (orld$
-8nnin) (ater is impliated$ ,s 7o8 look (it6 &iner and &iner de&inition 7o8 &ind mo8ntain
ran)es, ri'er 'alle7s, and man7 ot6er indiations t6at t6e planet is )eolo)iall7 ati'e$ 36ere are
also odd plaes s8rro8nded b7 'e)etation, b8t (6i6 are t6emsel'es den8ded o& plants$ 36e7
look like disolored sm8d)es on t6e landsape$
*6en 7o8 eCamine t6e Eart6 at abo8t 100-meter resol8tion, e'er7t6in) 6an)es$ 36e planet
is re'ealed to be o'ered (it6 strai)6t lines, sK8ares, retan)les, irlesGsometimes 68ddlin)
alon) ri'er banks or nestlin) on t6e lo(er slopes o& mo8ntains, sometimes stret6in) o'er plains,
b8t rarel7 in deserts or 6i)6 mo8ntains, and absol8tel7 ne'er in t6e oeans$ 36eir re)8larit7,
ompleCit7, and distrib8tion (o8ld be 6ard to eCplain eCept b7 li&e and intelli)ene, alt6o8)6 a
deeper 8nderstandin) o& &8ntion and p8rpose mi)6t be el8si'e$ 0er6aps 7o8 (o8ld onl8de
onl7 t6at t6e dominant li&e-&orms 6a'e a sim8ltaneo8s passion &or territorialit7 and E8lidean
)eometr7$ ,t t6is resol8tion 7o8 o8ld not see t6em, m86 less kno( t6em$
5an7 o& t6e de'e)etated sm8d)es are re'ealed to 6a'e an 8nderl7in) 6ekerboard
)eometr7$ 36ese are t6e planets ities$ 2'er m86 o& t6e landsape, and not H8st in t6e ities,
t6ere is a pro&8sion o& strai)6t lines, sK8ares, retan)les, irles$ 36e dark sm8d)es o& t6e ities
4"
are re'ealed to be 6i)6l7 )eometriIed, (it6 onl7 a &e( pat6es o& 'e)etationGt6emsel'es (it6
6i)6l7 re)8lar bo8ndariesGle&t intat$ 36ere are oasional trian)les, and in one it7 t6ere is
e'en a penta)on$
*6en 7o8 take pit8res at a meter resol8tion or better, 7o8 &ind t6at t6e rissrossin) strai)6t
lines (it6in t6e ities and t6e lon) strai)6t lines t6at Hoin t6em (it6 ot6er ities are &illed (it6
streamlined, m8ltiolored bein)s a &e( meters in len)t6, politel7 r8nnin) one be6ind t6e ot6er, in
lon), slo( orderl7 proession$ 36e7 are 'er7 patient$ 2ne stream o& bein)s stops so anot6er
stream an ontin8e at ri)6t an)les$ 0eriodiall7, t6e &a'or is ret8rned$ ,t ni)6t, t6e7 t8rn on t(o
bri)6t li)6ts in &ront so t6e7 an see (6ere t6e7Are )oin)$ Some, a pri'ile)ed &e(, )o into little
6o8ses (6en t6eir (orkda7 is done and retire &or t6e ni)6t$ 5ost are 6omeless and sleep in t6e
streets$
,t lastF :o8A'e deteted t6e so8re o& all t6e te6nolo)7$ t6e dominant li&e-&orms on t6e
planet$ 36e streets o& t6e ities and t6e road(a7s o& t6e o8ntr7side are e'identl7 b8ilt &or t6eir
bene&it$ :o8 mi)6t belie'e t6at 7o8 (ere reall7 be)innin) to 8nderstand li&e on Eart6$ ,nd
per6aps 7o8Ad be ri)6t$
I& t6e resol8tion impro'ed H8st a little &8rt6er, 7o8Ad diso'er tin7 parasites t6at oasionall7
enter and eCit t6e dominant or)anisms$ 36e7 pla7 some deeper role, t6o8)6, bea8se a stationar7
dominant or)anism (ill o&ten start 8p a)ain H8st a&ter itAs rein&eted b7 a parasite, and stop a)ain
H8st be&ore t6e parasite is eCpelled$ 36is is p8IIlin)$ B8t no one said li&e on Eart6 (o8ld be eas7
to 8nderstand$
,ll t6e ima)es 7o8A'e taken so &ar are in re&leted s8nli)6tGt6at is, on t6e da7 side o& t6e
planet$ Somet6in) most interestin) is re'ealed (6en 7o8 p6oto)rap6 t6e Eart6 at li)6t: 36e
planet is lit 8p$ 36e bri)6test re)ion, near t6e ,rti +irle, is ill8minated b7 t6e a8rora borealis
G)enerated not b7 li&e , b8t b7 eletrons and protons &rom t6e S8n, beamed do(n b7 t6e Eart6As
ma)neti &ield$ E'er7t6in) else 7o8 see is d8e to li&e$ 36e li)6ts reo)niIabl7 o8tline t6e same
ontinents 7o8 an make o8t in da7time? and man7 orrespond to ities 7o8A'e alread7 mapped$
36e ities are onentrated near oastlines$ 36e7 tend to be sparser in ontinental interiors$
0er6aps t6e dominant or)anisms are desperate &or sea(ater =or ma7be oean)oin) s6ips (ere
one essential &or ommere and emi)ration<$
Some o& t6e li)6ts, t6o8)6, are not d8e to ities$ In Nort6 ,&ria, t6e 5iddle East, and
Siberia, &or eCample, t6ere are 'er7 bri)6t li)6ts in a omparati'el7 barren landsape d8e, it
t8rns o8t, to b8rno&& in oil and nat8ral )as (ells$ In t6e Sea o& >apan on t6e da7 7o8 &irst look,
t6ere is a stran)e, trian)8lar-s6aped area o& li)6t$ In da7time it orresponds to open oean$ 36is
is no it7$ *6at o8ld it beD It is in &at t6e >apanese sK8id &is6in) &leet, 8sin) brilliant
ill8mination to attrat s6ools o& sK8id 8p to t6eir deat6s$ 2n ot6er da7s, t6is pattern o& li)6t
(anders all o'er t6e 0ai&i 2ean, seekin) pre7$ In e&&et, (6at 7o8 6a'e diso'ered 6ere is
s8s6i$
It seems soberin) to me t6at &rom spae 7o8 an so readil7 detet some o& t6e odds and
ends o& li&e on Eart6Gt6e )astrointestinal 6abits o& r8minants, >apanese 8isine, t6e means o&
omm8niatin) (it6 nomadi s8bmarines t6at arr7 deat6 &or "00 itiesG(6ile so m86 o& o8r
43
mon8mental ar6itet8re, o8r )reatest en)ineerin) (orks, o8r e&&orts to are &or one anot6er, are
almost (6oll7 in'isible$ ItAs a kind o& parable$
BY THIS POINT 7o8r eCpedition to t6e Eart6 m8st be onsidered 6i)6l7 s8ess&8l$ :o8A'e
6arateriIed t6e en'ironment? 7o8A'e deteted li&e? 7o8A'e &o8nd mani&estations o& intelli)ent
bein)s? 7o8 ma7 e'en 6a'e identi&ied t6e dominant speies, t6e one trans&iCed (it6 )eometr7 and
retilinearit7$ S8rel7 t6is planet is (ort6 a lon)er and more detailed st8d7$ 36atAs (67 7o8A'e no(
inserted 7o8r spaera&t into orbit aro8nd t6e Eart6$
.ookin) do(n on t6e planet, 7o8 8no'er ne( p8IIles$ ,ll o'er t6e Eart6, smokestaks are
po8rin) arbon dioCide and toCi 6emials into t6e air$ So are t6e dominant bein)s (6o r8n on
t6e road(a7s$ B8t arbon dioCide is a )reen6o8se )as$ ,s 7o8 (at6, t6e amo8nt o& it in t6e
atmosp6ere inreases steadil7, 7ear a&ter 7ear$ 36e same is tr8e o& met6ane and ot6er )reen6o8se
)ases$ I& t6is keeps 8p, t6e temperat8re o& t6e planet is )oin) to inrease$ Spetrosopiall7, 7o8
diso'er anot6er lass o& mole8les bein) inHeted into t6e air, t6e 6loro&l8oroarbons$ Not onl7
are t6e7 )reen6o8se )ases, b8t t6e7 are also de'astatin)l7 e&&eti'e in destro7in) t6e proteti'e
oIone la7er$
:o8 look more losel7 at t6e enter o& t6e So8t6 ,merian ontinent, (6i6Gas 7o8 kno(
b7 no(Gis a 'ast rain &orest$ E'er7 ni)6t 7o8 see t6o8sands o& &ires$ In t6e da7time, 7o8 &ind
t6e re)ion o'ered (it6 smoke$ 2'er t6e 7ears, all o'er t6e planet, 7o8 &ind less and less &orest
and more and more sr8b desert$
:o8 look do(n on t6e lar)e island o& 5ada)asar$ 36e ri'ers are olored bro(n, )eneratin)
a 'ast stain in t6e s8rro8ndin) oean$ 36is is topsoil bein) (as6ed o8t to sea at a rate so 6i)6
t6at in anot6er &e( deades t6ere (ill be none le&t$ 36e same t6in) is 6appenin), 7o8 note, at t6e
mo8t6s o& ri'ers all o'er t6e planet$
B8t no topsoil means no a)ri8lt8re$ In anot6er ent8r7, (6at (ill t6e7 eatD *6at (ill t6e7
breat6eD 4o( (ill t6e7 ope (it6 a 6an)in) and more dan)ero8s en'ironmentD
%rom 7o8r orbital perspeti'e, 7o8 an see t6at somet6in) 6as 8nmistakabl7 )one (ron)$
36e dominant or)anisms, (6oe'er t6e7 areG(6o 6a'e )one to so m86 tro8ble to re(ork t6e
s8r&aeGare sim8ltaneo8sl7 destro7in) t6eir oIone la7er and t6eir &orests, erodin) t6eir topsoil,
and per&ormin) massi'e, 8nontrolled eCperiments on t6eir planetAs limate$ 4a'enAt t6e7
notied (6atAs 6appenin)D ,re t6e7 obli'io8s to t6eir &ateD ,re t6e7 8nable to (ork to)et6er on
be6al& o& t6e en'ironment t6at s8stains t6em allD
0er6aps, 7o8 t6ink, itAs time to reassess t6e onHet8re t6at t6ereAs intelli)ent li&e on Eart6$
L O O K I N G F O R L I F E E L S E W H E R E :
A C A L I B R A T I O N
44
Spaera&t &rom t6e Eart6 6a'e no( &lo(n b7 doIens o& planets, moons, omets, and asteroids
GeK8ipped (it6 ameras, instr8ments &or meas8rin) 6eat and radio (a'es, spetrometers to
determine omposition, and a 6ost o& ot6er de'ies$ *e 6a'e &o8nd not a 6int o& li&e an7(6ere
else in t6e Solar S7stem$ B8t 7o8 mi)6t be skeptial abo8t o8r abilit7 to detet li&e else(6ere,
espeiall7 li&e di&&erent &rom t6e kind (e kno($ 1ntil reentl7 (e 6ad ne'er per&ormed t6e
ob'io8s alibration test: to &l7 a modern interplanetar7 spaera&t b7 t6e Eart6 and see (6et6er
(e o8ld detet o8rsel'es$ 36is all 6an)ed on !eember ;, 1990$
%alileo is a N,S, spaera&t desi)ned to eCplore t6e )iant planet >8piter, its moons, and its
rin)s$ ItAs named a&ter t6e 6eroi Italian sientist (6o pla7ed so entral a role in topplin) t6e
)eoentri pretension$ It is 6e (6o &irst sa( >8piter as a (orld, and (6o diso'ered its &o8r bi)
moons$ 3o )et to >8piter, t6e spaera&t 6ad to &l7 lose b7 #en8s =one< and t6e Eart6 =t(ie<
and be aelerated b7 t6e )ra'ities o& t6ese planetsGot6er(ise t6ere (asnAt eno8)6 oomp6 to )et
it (6ere it (as )oin)$ 36is neessit7 o& traHetor7 desi)n permitted 8s, &or t6e &irst time, to look
s7stematiall7 at t6e Eart6 &rom an alien perspeti'e$
%alileo passed onl7 960 kilometers =abo8t 600 miles< abo'e t6e Eart6As s8r&ae$ *it6 some
eCeptionsGinl8din) pit8res s6o(in) &eat8res &iner t6an 1 kilometer aross, and t6e ima)es
o& t6e Eart6 at ni)6tGm86 o& t6e spaera&t data desribed in t6is 6apter (ere at8all7
obtained b7 %alileo. *it6 %alileo (e (ere able to ded8e an oC7)en atmosp6ere, (ater, lo8ds,
oeans, polar ie, li&e, and intelli)ene$ 36e 8se o& instr8ments and protools de'eloped to
eCplore t6e planets to monitor t6e en'ironmental 6ealt6 o& o8r o(nGsomet6in) N,S, is no(
doin) in earnestG(as desribed b7 t6e astrona8t Sall7 -ide as B5ission to 0lanet Eart6$B
2t6er members o& t6e N,S, sienti&i team (6o (orked (it6 me on %alileo6 detetion o&
li&e on Eart6 (ere !rs$ *$ -eid 36ompson, +ornell 1ni'ersit7? -obert +arlson, >0.? !onald
/8rnett, 1ni'ersit7 o& Io(a? and +6arles 4ord, 1ni'ersit7 o& +olorado$
28r s8ess in detetin) li&e on Eart6 (it6 %alileo, (it6o8t makin) an7 ass8mptions
be&ore6and abo8t (6at kind o& li&e it m8st be, inreases o8r on&idene t6at (6en (e &ail to &ind
li&e on ot6er planets, t6at ne)ati'e res8lt is meanin)&8l$ Is t6is H8d)ment ant6ropoentri,
)eoentri, pro'inialD I donAt t6ink so$ *eAre not lookin) onl7 &or o8r kind o& biolo)7$ ,n7
(idespread p6otos7nt6eti pi)ment, an7 )as )rossl7 o8t o& eK8ilibri8m (it6 t6e rest o& t6e
atmosp6ere, an7 renderin) o& t6e s8r&ae into 6i)6l7 )eometriIed patterns, an7 stead7
onstellation o& li)6ts on t6e ni)6t 6emisp6ere, an7 non-astrop67sial so8res o& radio emission
(o8ld betoken t6e presene o& li&e$ 2n Eart6 (e 6a'e &o8nd o& o8rse onl7 o8r t7pe, b8t man7
ot6er t7pes (o8ld 6a'e been detetable else(6ere$ *e 6a'e not &o8nd t6em$ 36is eCamination o&
t6e t6ird planet stren)t6ens o8r tentati'e onl8sion t6at, o& all t6e (orlds in t6e Solar S7stem,
onl7 o8rs is )raed b7 li&e$
*e 6a'e H8st be)8n to sear6$ 5a7be li&e is 6idin) on 5ars or >8piter, E8ropa or 3itan$
5a7be t6e /alaC7 is &illed (it6 (orlds as ri6 in li&e as o8rs$ 5a7be (e are on t6e 'er)e o&
makin) s86 diso'eries$ B8t in terms o& at8al kno(led)e, at t6is moment t6e Eart6 is 8niK8e$
No ot6er (orld is 7et kno(n to 6arbor e'en a mirobe, m86 less a te6nial i'iliIation$
45
+ 4 , 0 3 E - 6

34E 3-I1504
2% #2:,/E-
36e7 t6at )o do(n to t6e sea in s6ips, t6at do b8siness in )reat (aters?
t6ese see t6e (orks o& t6e .ord, and 6is (onders in t6e deep$
G0S,.5S, 107 =+,$ 150 B$+<
T6e 'isions (e o&&er o8r 6ildren s6ape t6e &8t8re$ It matters (6at t6ose 'isions are$ 2&ten t6e7
beome sel&-&8l&illin) prop6eies$ !reams are maps$
46
I do not t6ink it irresponsible to portra7 e'en t6e direst &8t8res? i& (e are to a'oid t6em, (e
m8st 8nderstand t6at t6e7 are possible$ B8t (6ere are t6e alternati'esD *6ere are t6e dreams
t6at moti'ate and inspireD *e lon) &or realisti maps o& a (orld (e an be pro8d to )i'e to o8r
6ildren$ *6ere are t6e arto)rap6ers o& 68man p8rposeD *6ere are t6e 'isions o& 6ope&8l
&8t8res, o& te6nolo)7 as a tool &or 68man betterment and not a )8n on 6air tri))er pointed at
o8r 6eadsD
N,S,, in its ordinar7 o8rse o& doin) b8siness, o&&ers s86 a 'ision$ B8t in t6e late 19;0s
and earl7 A90s, man7 people sa( t6e 1$S$ spae pro)ram as, instead, a s8ession o& atastrop6es
Gse'en bra'e ,merians killed on a mission (6ose main &8ntion (as to p8t 8p a
omm8niations satellite t6at o8ld 6a'e been la8n6ed at less ost (it6o8t riskin) an7bod7? a
billion-dollar telesope sent 8p (it6 a bad ase o& m7opia? a spaera&t to >8piter (6ose main
antennaGessential &or ret8rnin) data to Eart6Gdid not 8n&8rl? a probe lost H8st as it (as abo8t to
orbit 5ars$ Some people rin)e e'er7 time N,S, desribes as eCploration sendin) a &e(
astrona8ts "00 miles 8p in a small aps8le t6at endlessl7 irles t6e Eart6 and )oes no(6ere$
+ompared to t6e brilliant a6ie'ements o& roboti missions, it is strikin) 6o( rarel7 &8ndamental
sienti&i &indin)s emer)e &rom manned missions$ ECept &or repairin) ineptl7 man8&at8red or
mal&8ntionin) satellites, or la8n6in) a satellite t6at o8ld H8st as (ell 6a'e been sent 8p in an
8nmanned booster, t6e manned pro)ram 6as, sine t6e 1970s, seemed 8nable to )enerate
aomplis6ments ommens8rate (it6 t6e ost$ 2t6ers looked at N,S, as a stalkin) 6orse &or
)randiose s6emes to p8t (eapons into spae, despite t6e &at t6at an orbitin) (eapon is in man7
ir8mstanes a sittin) d8k$ ,nd N,S, s6o(ed man7 s7mptoms o& an a)in), arteriosleroti,
o'era8tio8s, 8nad'ent8ro8s b8rea8ra7$ 36e trend is per6aps be)innin) to be re'ersed$
B8t t6ese ritiismsGman7 o& t6em s8rel7 'alidGs6o8ld not blind 8s to N,S, tri8mp6s in
t6e same period: t6e &irst eCploration o& t6e 1ran8s and Nept8ne s7stems, t6e in-orbit repair o&
t6e 48bble spae telesope, t6e proo& t6at t6e eCistene o& )alaCies is ompatible (it6 t6e Bi)
Ban), t6e &irst lose-8p obser'ations o& asteroids, mappin) #en8s pole to pole, monitorin) oIone
depletion, demonstratin) t6e eCistene o& a blak 6ole (it6 t6e mass o& a billion s8ns at t6e
enter o& a nearb7 )alaC7, and a 6istori ommitment to Hoint spae endea'ors b7 t6e 1$S$ and
-8ssia$
36ere are &ar-rea6in), 'isionar7, and e'en re'ol8tionar7 impliations to t6e spae pro)ram$
+omm8niations satellites link 8p t6e planet, are entral to t6e )lobal eonom7, and, t6ro8)6
tele'ision, ro8tinel7 on'e7 t6e essential &at t6at *e li'e in a )lobal omm8nit7$
5eteorolo)ial satellites predit t6e (eat6er, sa'e li'es in 68rrianes and tornados, and a'oid
man7 billions o& dollars in rop losses e'er7 7ear$ 5ilitar7-reonnaissane and treat7-
'eri&iation satellites make nations and t6e )lobal i'iliIation more se8re? in a (orld (it6 tens
o& t6o8sands o& n8lear (eapons, t6e7 alm t6e 6ot6eads and paranoids on all sides? t6e7 are
essential tools &or s8r'i'al on a tro8bled and 8npreditable planet$
Eart6-obser'in) satellites, espeiall7 a ne( )eneration soon to be deplo7ed, monitor t6e
6ealt6 o& t6e )lobal en'ironment: )reen6o8se (armin), topsoil erosion, oIone la7er depletion,
oean 8rrents, aid rain, t6e e&&ets o& &loods and dro8)6ts, and ne( dan)ers (e 6a'enAt 7et
diso'ered$ 36is is strai)6t&or(ard planetar7 67)iene$
47
/lobal positionin) s7stems are no( in plae so t6at 7o8r loale is radio-trian)8lated b7
se'eral satellites$ 4oldin) a small instr8ment t6e siIe o& a modern s6ort(a'e radio, 7o8 an read
o8t to 6i)6 preision 7o8r latit8de and lon)it8de$ No ras6ed airplane, no s6ip in &o) and s6oals,
no dri'er in an 8n&amiliar it7 need e'er be lost a)ain$
,stronomial satellites peerin) o8t(ard &rom Eart6As orbit obser'e (it6 8ns8rpassed larit7
Gst8d7in) K8estions ran)in) &rom t6e possible eCistene o& planets aro8nd nearb7 stars to t6e
ori)in and &ate o& t6e 1ni'erse$ 0lanetar7 probes &rom lose ran)e eCplore t6e )or)eo8s arra7 o&
ot6er (orlds in o8r solar s7stem omparin) t6eir &ates (it6 o8rs$
,ll o& t6ese ati'ities are &or(ard-lookin), 6ope&8l, stirrin) and ost-e&&eti'e$ None o&
t6em reK8ires BmannedB
1
spae&li)6t$ , ke7 iss8e &ain) t6e &8t8re o& N,S, and addressed in
t6is book is (6et6er t6e p8rported H8sti&iations &or 68man spae&li)6t are o6erent and
s8stainable$ Is it (ort6 t6e ostD
B8t &irst, letAs onsider t6e 'isions o& a 6ope&8l &8t8re 'o86sa&ed b7 robot spaera&t o8t
amon) t6e planets$
VOYAGER 1 ,N! VOYAGER 2 are t6e s6ips t6at opened t6e Solar S7stem &or t6e 68man speies,
trailblaIin) a pat6 &or &8t8re )enerations$ Be&ore t6eir la8n6, in ,8)8st and September 1977,
(e (ere almost (6oll7 i)norant abo8t most o& t6e planetar7 part o& t6e Solar S7stem$ In t6e
neCt doIen 7ears, t6e7 pro'ided o8r &irst detailed, lose-8p in&ormation on man7 ne( (orldsG
some o& t6em pre'io8sl7 kno(n onl7 as &8II7 disks in t6e e7epiees o& )ro8nd-based
telesopes, some merel7 as points o& li)6t, and some (6ose 'er7 eCistene (as 8ns8speted$
36e7 are still ret8rnin) reams o& data$
36ese spaera&t 6a'e ta8)6t 8s abo8t t6e (onders o& ot6er (orlds, abo8t t6e 8niK8eness
and &ra)ilit7 o& o8r o(n, abo8t be)innin)s and ends$ 36e7 6a'e )i'en 8s aess to most o& t6e
Solar S7stemGbot6 in eCtent and in mass$ 36e7 are t6e s6ips t6at &irst eCplored (6at ma7 be
6omelands o& o8r remote desendants$
1$S$ la8n6 'e6iles are t6ese da7s too &eeble to )et s86 a spaera&t to >8piter and be7ond
in onl7 a &e( 7ears b7 roket prop8lsion alone$ B8t i& (eAre le'er =and l8k7<, t6ereAs somet6in)
else (e an do: *e an =as /alileo also did, 7ears later< &l7 lose to one (orld, and 6a'e its
)ra'it7 &lin) 8s on to t6e neCt$ , )ra'it7 assist, itAs alled$ It osts 8s almost not6in) b8t
in)en8it7$ ltAs somet6in) like )rabbin) 6old o& a post on a mo'in) merr7-)o-ro8nd as it passesG
to speed 7o8 8p and &lin) 7o8 in some ne( diretion$ 36e spaera&tAs aeleration is
ompensated &or b7 a deeleration in t6e planetAs orbital motion aro8nd t6e S8n$ B8t bea8se t6e
planet is so massi'e ompared to t6e spaera&t, it slo(s do(n 6ardl7 at all$ Ea6 Vo$ager
spaera&t piked 8p a 'eloit7 boost o& nearl7 40,000 miles per 6o8r &rom >8piterAs )ra'it7$
>8piter in t8rn (as slo(ed do(n in its motion aro8nd t6e S8n$ B7 6o( m86D %i'e billion 7ears
1
Sine (omen astrona8ts and osmona8ts o& se'eral nations 6a'e &lo(n in spae, BmannedB is H8st &lat-o8t inorret$ IA'e
attempted to &ind an alternati'e to t6is (idel7 8sed term, oined in a more 8nsel&onsio8sl7 seCist a)e$ I tried Bre(edB &or a
(6ile, b8t in spoken lan)8a)e it lends itsel& to mis8nderstandin)$ B0ilotedB doesnAt (ork, bea8se e'en ommerial airplanes 6a'e
robot pilots$ B5anned and (omannedB is H8st, b8t 8n(ield7$ 0er6aps t6e best ompromise is B68man,B (6i6 permits 8s to
distin)8is6 rispl7 bet(een 68man and roboti missions$ B8t e'er7 no( and t6en, 1 &ind B68manB not K8ite (orkin), and to m7
disma7 BmannedB slips bak in$
4;
&rom no(, (6en o8r S8n beomes a s(ollen red )iant, >8piter (ill be one millimeter s6ort o&
(6ere it (o8ld 6a'e been 6ad Vo$ager not &lo(n b7 it in t6e late t(entiet6 ent8r7$
Vo$ager 2 took ad'anta)e o& a rare linin)-8p o& t6e planets: , lose &l7b7 o& >8piter
aelerated it on to Sat8rn, Sat8rn to 1ran8s, 1ran8s to Nept8ne, and Nept8ne to t6e stars$ B8t
7o8 anAt do t6is an7time 7o8 like: 36e pre'io8s opport8nit7 &or s86 a )ame o& elestial
billiards presented itsel& d8rin) t6e presiden7 o& 36omas >e&&erson$ *e (ere t6en onl7 at t6e
6orsebak, anoe, and sailin) s6ip sta)e o& eCploration$ =Steamboats (ere t6e trans&ormin) ne(
te6nolo)7 H8st aro8nd t6e orner$<
Sine adeK8ate &8nds (ere 8na'ailable, N,S,As >et 0rop8lsion .aborator7 =>0.< o8ld
a&&ord to b8ild spaera&t t6at (o8ld (ork reliabl7 onl7 as &ar as Sat8rn$ Be7ond t6at, all bets
(ere o&&$ 4o(e'er, bea8se o& t6e brilliane o& t6e en)ineerin) desi)n and t6e &at t6at t6e >0.
en)ineers (6o radioed instr8tions 8p to t6e spaera&t )ot smarter &aster t6an t6e spaera&t
)ot st8pidGbot6 spaera&t (ent on to eCplore 1ran8s and Nept8ne$ 36ese da7s t6e7 are
broadastin) bak diso'eries &rom be7ond t6e most distant kno(n planet o& t6e S8n$
*e tend to 6ear m86 more abo8t t6e splendors ret8rned t6an t6e s6ips t6at bro8)6t
t6em, or t6e s6ip(ri)6ts$ It 6as al, (a7s been t6at (a7$ E'en t6ose 6istor7 books enamored o&
t6e 'o7a)es o& +6ristop6er +ol8mb8s do not tell 8s m86 abo8t t6e b8ilders o& t6e Nina, t6e
0inta, and t6e Santa 5aria, or abo8t t6e priniple o& t6e ara'el$ 36ese spaera&t, t6eir
desi)ners, b8ilders, na'i)ators, and ontrollers are eCamples o& (6at siene and en)ineerin),
set &ree &or (ell-de&ined peae&8l p8rposes, an aomplis6$ 36ose sientists and en)ineers
s6o8ld be role models &or an ,meria seekin) eCellene and international ompetiti'eness$
36e7 s6o8ld be on o8r stamps$
,t ea6 o& t6e &o8r )iant planetsG>8piter, Sat8rn, 1ran8s, and Nept8neGone or bot6
spaera&t st8died t6e planet itsel&, its rin)s, and its moons$ ,t >8piter, in 1979, t6e7 bra'ed a
dose o& trapped 6ar)ed partiles a t6o8sand times more intense t6an (6at it takes to kill a
68man? en'eloped in all t6at radiation, t6e7 diso'ered t6e rin)s o& t6e lar)est planet, t6e &irst
ati'e 'olanos o8tside Eart6, and a possible 8nder)ro8nd oean on an airless (orldGamon) a
6ost o& s8rprisin) diso'eries$ ,t Sat8rn, in 19;0 and 19;1, t6e7 s8r'i'ed a bliIIard o& ie and
&o8nd not a &e( ne( rin)s, b8t t6o8sands$ 36e7 eCamined &roIen moons m7sterio8sl7 melted in
t6e omparati'el7 reent past, and a lar)e (orld (it6 a p8tati'e oean o& liK8id 67droarbons
s8rmo8nted b7 lo8ds o& or)ani matter$
2n >an8ar7 "5, 19;6, Vo$ager 2 entered t6e 1ran8s s7stem and reported a proession o&
(onders$ 36e eno8nter lasted onl7 a &e( 6o8rs, b8t t6e data &ait6&8ll7 rela7ed bak to Eart6
6a'e re'ol8tioniIed o8r kno(led)e o& t6e aK8amarine planet, its 15 moons$ its pit6-blak rin)s,
and its belt o& trapped 6i)6-ener)7 6ar)ed partiles$ 2n ,8)8st "5, 19;9, Vo$ager 2 s(ept
t6ro8)6 t6e Nept8ne s7stem and obser'ed, diml7 ill8minated b7 t6e distant S8n, kaleidosopi
lo8d patterns and a biIarre moon on (6i6 pl8mes o& &ine or)ani partiles (ere bein) blo(n
abo8t b7 t6e astonis6in)l7 t6in air$ ,nd in 199", 6a'in) &lo(n be7ond t6e o8termost kno(n
planet, bot6 Vo$ager piked 8p radio emission t6o8)6t to emanate &rom t6e still remote
6eliopa8seGt6e plae (6ere t6e (ind &rom t6e S8n )i'es (a7 to t6e (ind &rom t6e stars$
49
Bea8se (eAre st8k on Eart6, (eAre &ored to peer at distant (orlds t6ro8)6 an oean o&
distortin) air$ 586 o& t6e 8ltra'iolet, in&rared, and radio (a'es t6e7 emit do not penetrate o8r
atmosp6ere$ ItAs eas7 to see (67 o8r spaera&t 6a'e re'ol8tioniIed t6e st8d7 o& t6e Solar
S7stem: *e asend to stark larit7 in t6e 'a88m o& spae, and t6ere approa6 o8r obHeti'es,
&l7in) past t6em, as did Vo$ager, or orbitin) t6em, or landin) on t6eir s8r&aes$
36ese spaera&t 6a'e ret8rned &o8r trillion bits o& in&ormation to Eart6, t6e eK8i'alent
o& abo8t 100,000 en7lopedia 'ol8mes$ I desribed t6e Vo$ager 1 and 2 eno8nters (it6 t6e
>8piter s7stem in +osmos$ In t6e &ollo(in) pa)es, IAll sa7 somet6in) abo8t t6e Sat8rn, 1ran8s,
and Nept8ne eno8nters$
JUST BEFORE VOYAGER 2 (as to eno8nter t6e 1ran8s s7stem, t6e mission desi)n 6ad spei&ied
a &inal mane8'er, a brie& &irin) o& t6e on-board prop8lsion s7stem to position t6e spaera&t
orretl7 so it o8ld t6read its (a7 on a preset pat6 amon) t6e 68rtlin) moons$ B8t t6e o8rse
orretion pro'ed 8nneessar7$ 36e spaera&t (as alread7 (it6in "00 kilometers o& its
desi)ned traHetor7-a&ter a Ho8rne7 alon) an arin) pat6 5 billion kilometers lon)$ 36is is
ro8)6l7 t6e eK8i'alent o& t6ro(in) a pin t6ro8)6 t6e e7e o& a needle 50 kilometers a(a7, or
&irin) 7o8r ri&le in *as6in)ton and 6ittin) t6e b8llAs-e7e in !allas$
5ot6er lodes o& planetar7 treas8re (ere radioed bak to Eart6$ B8t Eart6 is so &ar a(a7 t6at
b7 t6e time t6e si)nal &ro) Nept8ne (as )at6ered in b7 radio telesopes on o8r planet, t6e
reei'ed po(er (as onl7 10
-16
(atts =&i&teen Ieros bet(een t6e deimal point and t6e one<$ 36is
(eak si)nal bears t6e same pro, portion to t6e po(er emitted b7 an ordinar7 readin) lamp as t6e
diameter o& an atom bears to t6e distane &rom t6e Eart6 to t6e 5oon$ ItAs like 6earin) an
amoebaAs &ootstep$
36e mission (as onei'ed d8rin) t6e late 1960s$ It (as &irst &8nded in 197"$ B8t it (as not
appro'ed in its &inal &orm =inl8din) t6e eno8nters (it6 1ran8s and Nept8ne< 8ntil a&ter t6e
s6ips 6ad ompleted t6eir reonnaissane o& >8piter$ 36e t(o spaera&t (ere li&ted o&& t6e Eart6
b7 a nonre8sable /i"anC#en"aur booster on&i)8ration$ *ei)6in) abo8t a ton, a Vo$ager (o8ld
&ill a small 6o8se$ Ea6 dra(s abo8t 400 (atts o& po(erGonsiderabl7 less t6an an a'era)e
,merian 6omeG&rom a )enerator t6at on'erts radioati'e pl8toni8m into eletriit7$ =I& it 6ad
to rel7 on solar ener)7, t6e a'ailable po(er (o8ld diminis6 K8ikl7 as t6e s6ip 'ent8red &art6er
and &art6er &rom t6e S8n *ere it not &or n8lear po(er, Vo$ager (o8ld 6a'e ret8rned no data at
all &rom t6e o8ter Solar S7stem, eCept per6aps a little &rom >8piter$<
36e &lo( o& eletriit7 t6ro8)6 t6e innards o& t6e spaera&t (o8ld )enerate eno8)6
ma)netism to o'er(6elm t6e sensiti'e instr8ment t6at meas8res interplanetar7 ma)neti &ields$
So t6e ma)netometer is plaed at t6e end o& alon) boom, &ar &rom t6e o&&endin) eletrial
8rrents$ *it6 ot6er proHetions, it )i'es Vo$ager alter a sli)6tl7 por8pine appearane$ +ameras,
in&rared and 8ltra'iolet spetrometers, and an instr8ment alled a p6otopolarimeter are on a san
plat&orm t6at s(i'els on ommand so t6ese de'ie an be aimed at a tar)et (orld$ 36e spaera&t
m8st kno( (6ere Eart6 is i& t6e antenna is to be pointed properl7 and t6e data rereei'ed bak
6ome$ It also needs to kno( (6ere t6e S8n is and at least one bri)6t star, so it an orient itsel& in
50
t6ree dimensions and point properl7 to(ard an7 passin) (orld$ I& 7o8 anAt point t6e ameras, it
does no )ood to be able to ret8rn pit8res o'er billions o& miles$
Ea6 spaera&t ost abo8t as m86 as a sin)le modern strate)i bomber$ B8t 8nlike
bombers, Vo$ager annot, one la8n6ed, be ret8rned to t6e 6an)ar &or repairs$ 36e s6ipAs
omp8ters and eletronis are t6ere&ore desi)ned red8ndantl7$ 586 ke7 ma6iner7, inl8din)
t6e essential radio reei'er, 6ad at least one bak8pG(aitin) to be alled 8pon s6o8ld t6e 6o8r
o& need e'er arri'e$ *6en eit6er Vo$ager &inds itsel& in tro8ble, t6e omp8ters 8se bran6ed
ontin)en7 tree lo)i to (ork o8t t6e appropriate o8rse o& ation$ I& t6at doesnAt (ork, t6e s6ip
radios 6ome &or 6elp$
,s t6e spaera&t Ho8rne7s inreasin)l7 &ar &rom Eart6, t6e ro8ndtrip radio tra'el time also
inreases, approa6in) ele'en 6o8rs b7 t6e time Vo$ager is at t6e distane o& Nept8ne$ 368s, in
ase o& emer)en7, t6e spaera&t needs to kno( 6o( to p8t itsel& into a sa&e standb7 mode (6ile
a(aitin) instr8tions &rom Eart6$ ,s it a)es, more and more &ail8res are eCpeted, bot6 in its
me6anial parts and in its omp8ter s7stem, alt6o8)6 t6ere is no si)n, e'en no(, o& a serio8s
memor7 deterioration, some roboti ,lI6eimerAs disease$
36is is not to sa7 t6at Vo$ager is per&et$ Serio8s mission-t6reatenin), (6ite-kn8kle
mis6aps did o8r$ Ea6 time, speial teams o& en)ineersGsome o& (6om 6ad been (it6 t6e
Vo$ager pro)ram sine its ineptionG(ere assi)ned to B(orkB t6e problem$ 36e7 (o8ld st8d7
t6e 8nderl7in) siene and dra( 8pon t6eir pre'io8s eCperiene (it6 t6e &ailed s8bs7stems$ 36e7
(o8ld eCperiment (it6 idential Vo$ager spaera&t eK8ipment t6at 6ad ne'er been la8n6ed, or
e'en man8&at8re a lar)e n8mber o& omponents o& t6e sort t6at &ailed in order to )ain some
statistial 8nderstandin) o& t6e &ail8re mode$
In ,pril 197;, almost ei)6t mont6s a&ter la8n6, and (6ile t6e s6ip (as approa6in) t6e
asteroid belt, an omitted )ro8nd ommandGa 68man errorGa8sed Vo$ager 26s on-board
omp8ter to s(it6 &rom t6e prime radio reei'er to its bak8p, !8rin) t6e neCt )ro8nd
transmission to t6e spaera&t, t6e bak8p reei'er re&8sed to lok onto t6e si)nal &rom Eart6$ ,
omponent alled a trakin) loop apaitor 6ad &ailed$ ,&ter se'en da7s in (6i6 Vo$ager 2 (as
entirel7 o8t o& ontat, its &a8lt protetion so&t(are s8ddenl7 ommanded t6e bak8p reei'er to
be s(it6ed o&& and t6e prime reei'er to be s(it6ed bak on$ 57sterio8sl7Gto t6is da7, no one
kno(s (67Gt6e prime reei'er &ailed moments later$ It (as ne'er 6eard &rom a)ain$ 3o top it
o&&, t6e on-board omp8ter no( &oolis6l7 insisted on 8sin) t6e &ailed primar7 reei'er$ 36ro8)6
an 8nl8k7 onatenation o& 68man and roboti error, t6e spaera&t (as no( in real Heopard7$
No one o8ld t6ink o& a (a7 to )et Vo$ager 2 to re'ert to t6e bak8p reei'er$ E'en i& it did, t6e
bak8p reei'er o8ldnAt reei'e t6e ommands &rom Eart6, bea8se o& t6at &ailed apaitor$
36ere (ere man7 proHet personnel (6o &eared t6at all (as lost$
B8t a&ter a (eek o& obd8rate 8nresponsi'eness to all ommands, instr8tions to s(it6
a8tomatiall7 bet(een reei'ers (ere aepted and pro)rammed into t6e skittis6 onboard
omp8ter$ !8rin) t6at same (eek t6e >0. en)ineers desi)ned an inno'ati'e ommand &reK8en7
ontrol proed8re to make s8re t6at essential orders (o8ld be 8nderstood b7 t6e dama)ed bak8p
reei'er$
51
36e en)ineers (ere no( able to reomm8niate, at least in a r8dimentar7 (a7, (it6 t6e
spaera&t$ 1n&ort8natel7 t6e bak8p reei'er no( t8rned )idd7, beomin) eCtremel7 sensiti'e to
stra7 6eat d8mped (6en 'ario8s omponents o& t6e spaera&t po(ered 8p or do(n$ In t6e
&ollo(in) mont6s t6e >0. en)ineers de'ised and ond8ted tests t6at let t6em t6oro8)6l7
8nderstand t6e t6ermal impliations o& most spaera&t operational modes: *6at (o8ld pre'ent
and (6at (o8ld permit reeipt o& ommands &rom Eart6D
*it6 t6is in&ormation, t6e bak8p reei'er problem (as entirel7 ir8m'ented$ It
s8bseK8entl7 aK8ired all t6e ommands sent &rom Eart6 on 6o( to )at6er data in t6e >8piter,
Sat8rn, 1ran8s, and Nept8ne s7stems$ 36e en)ineers 6ad sa'ed t6e mission$ =3o be on t6e sa&e
side, d8rin) most o& Vo$ager 26 s8bseK8ent &li)6t a nominal data-takin) seK8ene &or t6e neCt
planet to be eno8ntered (as al(a7s sittin) in t6e on-board omp8tersGs6o8ld t6e spaera&t
a)ain beome dea& to entreaties &rom 6ome$<
,not6er 6eart-(ren6in) &ail8re o8rred H8st a&ter Vo$ager 2 emer)ed &rom be6ind Sat8rn
=as seen &rom t6e Eart6< in ,8)8st 19;1$ 36e san plat&orm 6ad been mo'in) &e'eris6l7G
pointin) 6ere and t6ere amon) t6e rin)s, moons, and t6e planet itsel& d8rin) t6e all-too-brie&
moments o& lose approa6$ S8ddenl7, t6e plat&orm Hammed$ , st8k san plat&orm is a
maddenin) prediament: kno(in) t6at t6e spaera&t is &l7in) past (onders t6at 6a'e ne'er been
(itnessed, t6at (e (ill not see a)ain &or 7ears or deades, and t6e in8rio8s spaera&t starin)
&iCedl7 o&& into spae, i)norin) e'er7t6in)$
36e san plat&orm is dri'en b7 at8ators ontainin) )ear trains$ So &irst t6e >+. en)ineers
ran an idential op7 o& a &li)6t at8ator in a sim8lated mission$ 36is at8ator &ailed a&ter 34;
t8rns? t6e at8ator on t6e spaera&t 6ad &ailed a&ter 35" t8rns$ 36e problem t8rned o8t to be a
l8briation &ail8re$ /ood to kno(, b8t (6at to do abo8t itD 0lainl7, it (o8ld be impossible to
o'ertake Vo$ager (it6 ail oilan$
36e en)ineers (ondered (6et6er t6e7 o8ld restart t6e tailed at8ator b7 alternate 6eatin)
and oolin)? ma7be t6e res8ltin) t6ermal stresses (o8ld ind8e t6e omponents o& t6e at8ator
to eCpand and ontrat at di&&erent rates and 8nHam t6e s7stem$ 36e7 tested t6is notion (it6
speiall7 man8&at8red at8ators in t6e laborator7, and t6en H8bilantl7 &o8nd t6at in t6is (a7
t6e7 o8ld start t6e san plat&orm 8p a)ain in spae$ 0roHet personnel also de'ised (a7s to
dia)nose an7 additional trend to(ard at8ator &ail8re earl7 eno8)6 to (ork aro8nd t6e problem$
36erea&ter, Vo$ager 2As san plat&orm (orked per&etl7$ ,ll t6e pit8res taken in t6e 1ran8s and
Nept8ne s7stems o(e t6eir eCistene to t6is (ork$ 36e en)ineers 6ad sa'ed t6e da7 a)ain$
Vo$ager 1 and 2 (ere desi)ned to eCplore t6e >8piter and Sat8rn s7stems onl7$ It is tr8e
t6at t6eir traHetories (o8ld arr7 t6em on past 1ran8s and Nept8ne, b8t o&&iiall7 t6ese planets
(ere ne'er ontemplated as tar)ets &or Vo$ager eCploration: 36e spaera&t (ere not s8pposed
to last t6at lon)$ Bea8se o& o8r (is6 to &l7 lose to t6e m7ster7 (orld 3itan, Vo$ager 9 (as
&l8n) b7 Sat8rn on a pat6 t6at o8ld ne'er eno8nter an7 ot6er kno(n (orld? it is Vo$ager 2 t6at
&le( on to 1ran8s and Nept8ne (it6 brilliant s8ess$ ,t t6ese immense distanes, s8nli)6t is
)ettin) pro)ressi'el7 dimmer, and t6e radio si)nals transmitted to Eart6 are )ettin) pro)ressi'el7
&ainter$ 36ese (ere preditable b8t still 'er7 serio8s problems t6at t6e >0. en)ineers and
sientists also 6ad to sol'e$
5"
Bea8se o& t6e lo( li)6t le'els at 1ran8s and Nept8ne, t6e Vo$ager tele'ision ameras
(ere obli)ed to take lon) time eCpos8res$ B8t t6e spaera&t (as 68rtlin) so &ast t6ro8)6, sa7,
t6e 1ran8s s7stem =at abo8t 35,000 miles per 6o8r< t6at t6e ima)e (o8ld 6a'e been smeared or
bl8rred$ 3o ompensate, t6e entire spaera&t 6ad to be mo'ed d8rin) t6e time eCpos8res to
anel o8t t6e motion, like pannin) in t6e diretion opposite 7o8rs (6ile takin) a p6oto)rap6 o&
a street sene &rom a mo'in) ar$ 36is ma7 so8nd eas7, b8t itAs not: :o8 6a'e to ne8traliIe t6e
most innoent o& motions$ ,t Iero )ra'it7, t6e mere start and stop o& t6e on-board tape reorder
an Hi))le t6e spaera&t eno8)6 to smear t6e pit8re$
36is problem (as sol'ed b7 sendin) 8p ommands to t6e spaera&tAs little roket en)ines
=alled t6r8sters<, ma6ines o& eCK8isite sensiti'it7$ *it6 a little p8&& o& )as at t6e start and stop
o& ea6 data-takin) seK8ene, t6e t6r8sters ompensated &or t6e tape-reorder Hi))le b7 t8rnin)
t6e entire spaera&t H8st a little$ 3o deal (it6 t6e lo( radio po(er reei'ed at Eart6, t6e
en)ineers de'ised a ne( and more e&&iient (a7 to reord and transmit t6e data, and t6e radio
telesopes on Eart6 (ere eletroniall7 linked to)et6er (it6 ot6ers to inrease t6eir sensiti'it7$
2'erall, t6e ima)in) s7stem (orked, b7 man7 riteria, better at 1ran8s and Nept8ne t6an it did
at Sat8rn or e'en at >8piter$
Vo$ager ma7 not 7et be done eCplorin)$ 36ere is, o& o8rse, a 6ane t6at some 'ital
s8bs7stem (ill &ail tomorro(, b8t as &ar as t6e radioati'e dea7 o& t6e pl8toni8m po(er so8re
is onerned, t6e t(o Vo$ager spaera&t s6o8ld be able to ret8rn data to Eart6 ro8)6l7 t6ro8)6
t6e 7ear "015$
Vo$ager is an intelli)ent bein)Gpart robot, part 68man$ It eCtends t6e 68man senses to &ar-
o&& (orlds$ %or simple tasks and s6ort-term problems, it relies on its o(n intelli)ene? b8t &or
more ompleC tasks and lon)er-term problems, it t8rns to t6e olleti'e intelli)ene and
eCperiene o& t6e >0. en)ineers$ 36is trend is s8re to )ro($ 36e Vo$ager embod7 t6e te6nolo)7
o& t6e earl7 1970s? i& spaera&t (ere desi)ned &or s86 a mission toda7, t6e7 (o8ld inorporate
st8nnin) ad'anes in arti&iial intelli)ene, in miniat8riIation, in data-proessin) speed, in t6e
abilit7 to sel&-dia)nose and repair, and in t6e propensit7 to learn &rom eCperiene 36e7 (o8ld
also be m86 6eaper$
In t6e man7 en'ironments too dan)ero8s &or people, on Eart6 as (ell as in spae, t6e &8t8re
belon)s to robot-68man partners6ips t6at (ill reo)niIe t6e t(o Vo$ager as anteedents and
pioneers$ %or n8lear aidents, mine disasters, 8ndersea eCploration and ar6aeolo)7,
man8&at8rin), pro(lin) t6e interiors o& 'olanos, and 6o8se6old 6elp, to name onl7 a &e(
potential appliations, it o8ld make an enormo8s di&&erene to 6a'e a read7 orps o& smart,
mobile, ompat, ommandable robots t6at an dia)nose and repair t6eir o(n mal&8ntions$
36ere are likel7 to be man7 more o& t6is tribe in t6e near &8t8re$
It is on'entional (isdom no( t6at an7t6in) b8ilt b7 t6e )o'ernment (ill be a disaster$ B8t
t6e t(o Vo$ager spaera&t (ere b8ilt b7 t6e )o'ernment =in partners6ip (it6 t6at ot6er
b8)aboo, aademia<$ 36e7 ame in at ost, on time, and 'astl7 eCeeded t6eir desi)n
spei&iationsGas (ell as t6e &ondest dreams o& t6eir makers$ Seekin) not to ontrol, t6reaten,
(o8nd, or destro7, t6ese ele)ant ma6ines represent t6e eCplorator7 part o& o8r nat8re set &ree to
roam t6e Solar S7stem and be7ond$ 36is kind o& te6nolo)7, t6e treas8res it 8no'ers &reel7
53
a'ailable to all 68mans e'er7(6ere, 6as been, o'er t6e last &e( deades, one o& t6e &e( ati'ities
o& t6e 1nited States admired as m86 b7 t6ose (6o ab6or man7 o& its poliies as b7 t6ose (6o
a)ree (it6 it on e'er7 iss8e$ Vo$ager ost ea6 ,merian less t6an a penn7 a 7ear &rom la8n6 to
Nept8ne eno8nter$ 5issions to t6e planets are one o& t6ose t6in)sGand I mean t6is not H8st &or
t6e 1nited States, b8t &or t6e 68man speiesGt6at (e do best$
C H A P T E R 7
54
,52N/ 34E
522NS 2%
S,31-N
Seat t67sel& s8ltaniall7 amon) t6e moons o& Sat8rn$
G4E-5,N 5E.#I..E, MO>, .!#D9 +4,03E- 107 =1;51<
T6ere is a (orld, mid(a7 in siIe bet(een t6e 5oon and 5ars, (6ere t6e 8pper air is ripplin)
(it6 eletriit7Gstreamin) in &rom t6e ar6et7pial rin)ed planet neCt door, (6ere t6e perpet8al
bro(n o'erast is tin)ed (it6 an odd b8rnt oran)e, and (6ere t6e 'er7 st8&& o& li&e &alls o8t o& t6e
skies onto t6e 8nkno(n s8r&ae belo($ It is so &ar a(a7 t6at li)6t takes more t6an an 6o8r to )et
t6ere &rom t6e S8n$ Spaera&t take 7ears$ 586 abo8t it is still a m7ster7Ginl8din) (6et6er it
6olds )reat oeans$ *e kno( H8st eno8)6, t6o8)6, to reo)niIe t6at (it6in rea6 ma7 be a plae
(6ere ertain proesses ate toda7 (orkin) t6emsel'es o8t t6at aeons a)o on Eart6 led to t6e
ori)in o& li&e$
2n o8r o(n (orld a lon)-standin)Gand in some respets K8ite promisin)GeCperiment 6as
been 8nder (a7 on t6e e'ol8tion o& matter$ 36e oldest kno(n &ossils are abo8t 3$6 billion 7ears
old$ 2& o8rse, t6e ori)in o& li&e 6ad to 6a'e 6appened (ell be&ore t6at$ B8t 4$" or 4$3 billion
7ears a)o t6e Eart6 (as bein) so ra'a)ed b7 t6e &inal sta)es o& its &ormation t6at li&e o8ld not
7et 6a'e ome into bein): 5assi'e ollisions (ere meltin) t6e s8r&ae, t8rnin) t6e oeans into
steam and dri'in) an7 atmosp6ere t6at 6ad a8m8lated sine t6e last impat o&& into spae$ So
aro8nd 4 billion 7ears a)o, t6ere (as a &airl7 narro( (indo(Gper6aps onl7 a 68ndred million
7ears (ide in (6i6 o8r most distant anestors ame to be$ 2ne onditions permitted, li&e arose
55
&ast$ Some6o($ 36e &irst li'in) t6in)s 'er7 likel7 (ere inept, &ar less apable t6an t6e most
68mble mirobe ali'e toda7Gper6aps H8st barel7 able to make r8de opies o& t6emsel'es$ B8t
nat8ral seletion, t6e ke7 proess &irst o6erentl7 desribed b7 +6arles !ar(in, is an instr8ment
o& s86 enormo8s po(er t6at &rom t6e most modest be)innin)s t6ere an emer)e all t6e ri6ness
and bea8t7 o& t6e biolo)ial (orld$
36ose &irst li'in) t6in)s (ere made o& piees, parts, b8ildin) bloks (6i6 6ad to ome into
bein) on t6eir o(nGt6at is, dri'en b7 t6e la(s o& p67sis and 6emistr7 on a li&eless Eart6$ 36e
b8ildin) bloks o& all terrestrial li&e are alled or)ani mole8les, mole8les based on arbon$ 2&
t6e st8pendo8s Rl8mber o& possible or)ani mole8les, 'er7 &e( are 8sed at t6e 6eart o& li&e$ 36e
t(o most important lasses are t6e amino aids, t6e b8ildin) bloks o& proteins, and t6e
n8leotide bases, t6e b8ildin) bloks o& t6e n8lei aids$ 5ist be&ore t6e ori)in o& li&e, (6ere
did t6ese mole8les ome &romD 36ere are onl7 t(o possibilities: &rom t6e o8tside or &rom t6e
inside$ *e kno( t6at 'astl7 more omets and asteroids (ere 6ittin) t6e Eart6 t6an do so toda7,
t6at t6ese small (orlds are ri6 store6o8ses o& ompleC or)ani mole8les, and t6at some o&
t6ese mole8les esaped bein) &ried on impat$ 4ere IAm desribin) 6omemade, not imported,
)oods: t6e or)ani mole8les )enerated in t6e air and (aters o& t6e primiti'e Eart6$
1n&ort8natel7, (e donAt kno( 'er7 m86 abo8t t6e omposition o& t6e earl7 air, and or)ani
mole8les are &ar easier to make in some atmosp6eres t6an in ot6ers$ 36ere o8ldnAt 6a'e been
m86 oC7)en, bea8se oC7)en is )enerated b7 )reen plants and t6ere (erenAt an7 )reen plants
7et$ 36ere (as probabl7 more 67dro)en, bea8se 67dro)en is 'er7 ab8ndant in t6e 1ni'erse
and esapes &rom t6e 8pper atmosp6ere o& t6e Eart6 into spae better t6an an7 ot6er atom
=bea8se itAs so li)6t<$ I& (e an ima)ine 'ario8s possible earl7 atmosp6eres, (e an d8pliate
t6em in t6e laborator7, s8ppl7 some ener)7, and see (6i6 or)ani mole8les are made and in
(6at amo8nts$ S86 eCperiments 6a'e o'er t6e 7ears pro'ed pro'oati'e and promisin)$ B8t
o8r i)norane o& initial onditions limits t6eir rele'ane$
*6at (e need is a real (orld (6ose atmosp6ere still retains some o& t6ose 67dro)en-ri6
)ases, a (orld in ot6er respets somet6in) like t6e Eart6, a (orld in (6i6 t6e or)ani b8ildin)
bloks o& li&e are bein) massi'el7 )enerated in o8r o(n time, a (orld (e an )o to to seek o8r
o(n be)innin)s$ 36ere is onl7 one s86 (orld in t6e Solar S7stem$
1
36at (orld is 3itan, t6e bi)
moon o& Sat8rn$ ItAs abo8t 5,150 kilometers =3,"00 miles< in diameter, a little less t6an 6al& t6e
siIe o& t6e Eart6$ It takes 16 o& o8r da7s to omplete one orbit o& Sat8rn$
No (orld is a per&et replia o& an7 ot6er, and in at least one important respet 3itan is 'er7
di&&erent &rom t6e primiti'e Eart6: Bein) so &ar &rom t6e S8n, its s8r&ae is eCtremel7 old, &ar
belo( t6e &reeIin) point o& (ater, aro8nd 1;0U belo( Iero +elsi8s$ So (6ile t6e Eart6 at t6e
time o& t6e ori)in o& li&e (as, as no(, mainl7 oean-o'ered, plainl7 t6ere an be no oeans o&
liK8id (ater on 3itan$ =2eans made o& ot6er st8&& are a di&&erent stor7, as (e s6all see$< 36e lo(
temperat8res pro'ide an ad'anta)e, t6o8)6, bea8se one mole8les are s7nt6esiIed on 3itan,
t6e7 tend to stik aro8nd: 36e 6i)6er t6e temperat8re, t6e &aster mole8les &all to piees$ 2n
1
36ere o8ld 6a'e been none$ *eAre 'er7 l8k7 t6at t6ere is s86 a (orld st8d7$ 36e ot6ers ill 6a'e too m86 67dro)en, or not
eno8)6, or no atmosp6ere at all$
56
3itan t6e mole8les t6at 6a'e been rainin) do(n like manna &rom 6ea'en &or t6e last 4 billion
7ears mi)6t still be t6ere, lar)el7 8naltered, deep-&roIen, a(aitin) t6e 6emists &rom Eart6$
THE INVENTION OF THE TELESCOPE In t6e se'enteent6 ent8r7 led to t6e diso'er7 o& man7 ne(
(orlds$ In 1610 /alileo &irst spied t6e &o8r lar)e satellites o& >8piter$ It looked like a miniat8re
solar s7stem, t6e little moons rain) aro8nd >8piter as t6e planets (ere t6o8)6t b7 +operni8s to
orbit t6e S8n$ It (as anot6er blo( to t6e )eoentrists$ %ort7-&i'e 7ears later, t6e elebrated !8t6
p67siist +6ristian8s 487)ens diso'ered a moon mo'in) abo8t t6e planet Sat8rn and named it
3itan$
1
It (as a dot o& li)6t a billion miles a(a7, )leamin) in re&leted s8nli)6t$ %rom t6e time o&
its diso'er7, (6en E8ropean men (ore lon) 8rl7 (i)s, to (orld *ar II, (6en ,merian men
8t t6eir 6air do(n to st8bble, almost not6in) more (as diso'ered abo8t 3itan eCept t6e &at it
6ad a 8rio8s, ta(n7 olor$ /ro8nd-based telesopes o8ld, e'en in priniple, barel7 make o8t
some eni)mati detail$ 36e Spanis6 astronomer >$ +omas Sola reported at t6e t8rn o& t6e
t(entiet6 ent8r7 some &aint and indiret e'idene o& an atmosp6ere$
In a (a7, I )re( 8p (it6 3itan$ I did m7 dotoral dissertation at t6e 1ni'ersit7 o& +6ia)o
8nder t6e )8idane o& /erard 0$ E8iper, t6e astronomer (6o made t6e de&initi'e diso'er7 t6at
3itan 6as an atmosp6ere$ E8iper (as !8t6 and in a diret line o& intellet8al desent &rom
+6ristian8s 487)ens$ In 1914, (6ile makin) a spetrosopi eCamination o& 3itan, E8iper (as
astonis6ed to &ind t6e 6arateristi spetral &eat8res o& t6e )as met6ane$ *6en 6e pointed t6e
telesope at 3itan, t6ere (as t6e si)nat8re o& met6ane$
"
*6en 6e pointed it a(a7, not a 6int o&
met6ane$ B8t moons (ere not s8pposed to 6old onto siIable atmosp6eres, and t6e Eart6As 5oon
ertainl7 doesnAt$ 3itan o8ld retain an atmosp6ere, E8iper realiIed, e'en t6o8)6 its )ra'it7 (as
less t6an Eart6As, bea8se its 8pper atmosp6ere is 'er7 old$ 36e mole8les simpl7 arenAt mo'in)
&ast eno8)6 &or si)ni&iant n8mbers to a6ie'e esape 'eloit7 and trikle a(a7 to spae$
!aniel 4arris, a st8dent o& E8iperAs, s6o(ed de&initi'el7 t6at 3itan is red$ 5a7be (e (ere
lookin) at a r8st7 s8r&ae, like t6at o& 5ars$ I& 7o8 (anted to learn more abo8t 3itan, 7o8 o8ld
also meas8re t6e polariIation o& s8nli)6t re&leted o&& it$ 2rdinar7 s8nli)6t is 8npolariIed$ >osep6
#e'erka, no( a &ello( &a8lt7 member at +ornell 1ni'ersit7, (as m7 )rad8ate st8dent at
4ar'ard 1ni'ersit7, and t6ere&ore, so to speak, a )randst8dent o& E8iperAs$ In 6is dotoral (ork,
aro8nd 1970, 6e meas8red t6e polariIation o& 3itan and &o8nd t6at it 6an)ed as t6e relati'e
positions o& 3itan, t6e S8n, and t6e Eart6 6an)ed$ B8t t6e 6an)e (as 'er7 di&&erent &rom t6at
eC6ibited b7, sa7, t6e 5oon$ #e'erka onl8ded t6at t6e 6arater o& t6is 'ariation (as
onsistent (it6 eCtensi'e lo8ds or 6aIe on 3itan$ *6en (e looked at it t6ro8)6 t6e telesope,
(e (erenAt seein) its s8r&ae$ *e kne( not6in) abo8t (6at t6e s8r&ae (as like$ *e 6ad no idea
6o( &at belo( t6e lo8ds t6e s8r&ae (as$
So, b7 t6e earl7 1970s, as a kind o& le)a7 &rom 487)ens and 6is line o& intellet8al desent,
(e kne( at least t6at 3itan 6as a dense met6ane-ri6 atmosp6ere, and t6at itAs probable en'eloped
1
Not bea8se 6e t6o8)6t it remarkabl7 lar)e$ b8t bea8se in /reek m7t6olo)7 members o& t6e )eneration preedin) t6e 2l7mpian
)odsGSat8rn, 6is siblin)s, and 6is o8sinsG(ere alled 3itans$
"
3itanAs atmosp6ere 6as no detetable oC7)en, so met6ane is not (ildl7 o8t o& 6emial eK8ilibri8mGas it is on Eart6Gand its
presene is in no (a7 a si)n o& li&e
57
b7 a reddis6 lo8d 'eil or aerosol 6aIe$ B8t (6at kind o& lo8d is redD B7 t6e earl7 1970s m7
ollea)8e Bis68n E6are and I 6ad been doin) eCperiments at +ornell in (6i6 (e irradiated
'ario8s met6ane-ri6 atmosp6eres (it6 1ltra'iolet li)6t or eletrons and (ere )eneratin) reddis6
or bro(nis6 solids? t6e st8&& (o8ld oat t6e interiors o& o8r reation 'essels$ It seemed to me t6at,
i& met6ane-ri6 3itan 6ad red-bro(n lo8ds, t6ose lo8ds mi)6t 'er7 (ell be similar to (6at (e
(ere makin) in t6e laborator7$ *e alled t6is material t6olin, a&ter a /reek (ord &or Bm8dd7$B ,t
t6e be)innin) (e 6ad 7en little idea (6at it (as made o&$ It (as some or)ani ste( made b7
breakin) apart o8r startin) mole8les, and allo(in) t6e atomsGarbon, 67dro)en, nitro)enGand
mole8lar &ra)ments to reombine$
36e (ord Bor)aniB arries no imp8tation o& biolo)ial ori)in? &ollo(in) lon)-standin)
6emial 8sa)e datin) bak mots t6an a ent8r7, it merel7 desribes mole8les b8ilt o8t o& ar
bon atoms =eCl8din) a &e( 'er7 simple ones s86 as arbon monoCide, +2, and arbon dioCide,
+2
"
<$ Sine li&e on Eart6 is based oil or)ani mole8les, and sine t6ere (as a time be&ore "(ere
<a li&e on Eart6, some proess m8st 6a'e made or)ani mole8les on o8r planet be&ore t6e time
o& t6e &irst or)anism$ Somet6in) sitar, I proposed, mi)6t be 6appenin) on 3itan toda7$
36e epo6al e'ent in o8r 8nderstandin) o& 3itan (as t6e arri'al in 19;0 and 19;1 o& t6e
Vo$ager 1 and 2 spaera&t in t6e Sat8rn s7stem$ 36e 8ltra'iolet, in&rared, and radio instr8ments
re'ealed t6e press8re and temperat8re t6ro8)6 t6e atmosp6ereG&rom t6e 6idden s8r&ae to t6e
ed)e o& spae$ *e learned 6o( 6i)6 t6e lo8d tops are$ *e &o8nd t6at t6e air on 3itan is
omposed mainl7 o& nitro)en, N
"
, as on t6e Eart6 toda7$ 36e ot6er prinipal onstit8ent is, as
E8iper &o8nd, met6ane$ +4
4
t6e startin) material &rom (6i6 arbon-based or)ani mole8les
are )enerated t6ere$
, 'ariet7 o& simple or)ani mole8les (as &o8nd, present as )ases, mainl7 67droarbons and
nitriles$ 36e most ompleC o& t6em 6a'e &o8r B6ea'7B =arbon andNor nitro)en< atoms$
47droarbons are mole8les omposed o& arbon and 67dro)en atoms onl7, and are &amiliar to
8s as nat8ral )as, petrole8m, and (aCes$ =36e7Are K8ite di&&erent &rom arbo67drates, s86 as
s8)ars and star6, (6i6 also 6a'e oC7)en atoms$< Nitriles are mole8les (it6 a arbon and
nitro)en atom atta6ed in a parti8lar (a7$ 36e best kno(n nitrile is 4+N, 67dro)en 7anide, a
deadl7 )as &or 68mans$ B8t 67dro)en 7anide is impliated in t6e steps t6at on Eart6 led to t6e
ori)in o& li&e$
%indin) t6ese simple or)ani mole8les in 3itanAs 8pper atmosp6ereGe'en i& present onl7 in
a part per million or a part per billionGis tantaliIin)$ +o8ld t6e atmosp6ere o& t6e prime'al
Eart6 6a'e been similarD 36ereAs abo8t ten times more air oil 3itan t6an t6ere is on Eart6 toda7,
b8t t6e earl7 Eart6 ma7 (ell 6a'e 6ad a denser atmosp6ere$
5oreo'er, Vo$ager diso'ered an eCtensi'e re)ion o& ener)eti eletrons and protons
s8rro8ndin) Sat8rn, trapped b7 t6e planetAs ma)neti &ield$ !8rin) t6e o8rse o& its orbital
motion aro8nd Sat8rn, 3itan bobs in and o8t o& t6is ma)netosp6ere$ Beams o& eletrons =pl8s
solar 8ltra'iolet li)6t< &all on t6e 8pper air o& 3itan, H8st as 6ar)ed partiles =pl8s solar
8ltra'iolet li)6t< (ere interepted b7 t6e atmosp6ere o& t6e primiti'e Eart6$
5;
So itAs a nat8ral t6o8)6t to irradiate t6e appropriate miCt8re o& nitro)en and met6ane (it6
8ltra'iolet li)6t or eletrons at 'er7 lo( press8res, and &ind o8t (6at more ompleC mole8les
an be made$ +an (e sim8late (6atAs )oin) on in 3itanAs 6i)6 atmosp6ereD In o8r laborator7 at
+ornellG(it6 m7 ollea)8e *$ -eid 36ompson pla7in) a ke7 roleG(eA'e repliated some o&
3itanAs man8&at8re o& or)ani )ases$ 36e simplest 67droarbons on 3itan are man8&at8red b7
8ltra'iolet li)6t &rom t6e S8n$ B8t &or all t6e ot6er )as prod8ts, t6ose made most readil7 b7
eletrons in t6e laborator7 orrespond to t6ose diso'ered b7 Vo$ager on 3itan, and in t6e same
proportions$ 36e orrespondene is one to one$ 36e neCt most ab8ndant )ases t6at (eA'e &o8nd in
t6e laborator7 (ill be looked &or in &8t8re st8dies o& 3itan$ 36e most ompleC or)ani )ases (e
make 6a'e siC or se'en arbon andNor nitro)en atoms$ 36ese prod8t mole8les are on t6eir (a7
to &ormin) t6olins$
WE HAD HOPED FOR A BREAK In t6e (eat6er as Vo$ager 1 approa6ed 3itan$ , lon) distane
a(a7, it appeared as a tin7 disk? at losest approa6, o8r ameraAs &ield o& 'ie( (as &illed b7 a
small pro'ine o& 3itan$ I& t6ere 6ad been a break in t6e 6aIe and lo8ds, e'en onl7 a &e( miles
aross, as (e sanned t6e disk (e (o8ld 6a'e seen somet6in) o& its 6idden s8r&ae$ B8t t6ere
(as no 6int o& a break$ 36is (orld is soked in$ No one on Eart6 kno(s (6atAs on 3itanAs s8r&ae$
,nd an obser'er t6ere, lookin) 8p ill ordinar7 'isible li)6t, (o8ld 6a'e no idea o& t6e )lories t6at
a(ait 8pon asendin) t6ro8)6 t6e 6aIe and be6oldin) Sat8rn and its ma)ni&ient rin)s$
%rom meas8rements b7 Vo$ager9 b7 t6e !n"erna"ional 8l"ra4iole" Explorer obser'ator7 in
Eart6 orbit, and b7 )ro8nd-based telesopes, (e kno( a &air amo8nt abo8t t6e oran)e-bro(n
6aIe partiles t6at obs8re t6e s8r&ae: (6i6 olors o& li)6t t6e7 like to absorb, (6i6 olors
t6e7 prett7 m86 let pass t6ro8)6 t6em, 6o( m86 t6e7 bend, t6e li)6t t6at does pass t6ro8)6
t6em, and 6o( bi) t6e7 are$ =36e7Are mostl7 t6e siIe o& t6e partiles in i)arette smoke$< 36e
Boptial propertiesB (ill depend, o& o8rse, on t6e omposition o& t6e 6aIe partiles$
In ollaboration (it6 Ed(ard ,raka(a o& 2ak -id)e National .aborator7 in 3ennessee,
E6are and I 6a'e meas8red t6e optial properties o& 3itan t6olin$ It t8rns o8t to be a dead rin)er
&or t6e real 3itan 6aIe$ No ot6er andidate material, mineral or or)ani, mat6es t6e optial
onstants o& 3itan$ So (e an &airl7 laim to 6a'e bottled t6e 6aIe o& 3itanG&ormed 6i)6 in its
atmosp6ere, slo(l7 &allin) o8t, and a8m8latin) in opio8s amo8nts on its s8r&ae$ *6at is t6is
st8&& made o&D
ItAs 'er7 6ard to kno( t6e eCat omposition o& a ompleC or)ani solid$ %or eCample, t6e
6emistr7 o& oal is still not &8ll7 8nderstood, despite a lon)-standin) eonomi inenti'e$ B8t
(eA'e &o8nd o8t some t6in)s abo8t 3itan t6olin$ It ontains man7 o& t6e essential b8ildin) bloks
o& li&e on Eart6$ Indeed, i& 7o8 drop 3itan t6olin into (ater 7o8 make a lar)e n8mber o& amino
aids, t6e &8ndamental onstit8ents o& proteins, and n8leotide bases also, t6e b8ildin) bloks o&
!N, and -N,$ Some o& t6e amino aids so &ormed are (idespread in li'in) t6in)s on Eart6$
2t6ers are o& a ompletel7 di&&erent sort$ , ri6 arra7 o& ot6er or)ani mole8les is present also,
some rele'ant to li&e, some not$ !8rin) t6e past &o8r billion 7ears, immense K8antities o& or)ani
mole8les sedimented o8t o& t6e atmosp6ere onto t6e s8r&ae o& 3itan$ I& itAs all deep-&roIen and
59
8n6an)ed in t6e inter'enin) aeons, t6e amo8nt a8m8lated s6o8ld be at least tens o& meters =a
68ndred &eet< t6ik? o8tside estimates p8t it at a kilometer deep$
B8t at 1;0U+ belo( t6e &reeIin) point o& (ater, 7o8 mi)6t 'er7 (ell t6ink t6at amino aids
(ill ne'er be made$ !roppin) t6olins into (ater ma7 be rele'ant to t6e earl7 Eart6, b8t not, it
(o8ld seem, to 3itan$ 4o(e'er, omets and asteroids m8st on oasion ome ras6in) into t6e
s8r&ae o& 3itan$ =36e ot6er nearb7 moons o& Sat8rn s6o( ab8ndant impat raters, and t6e
atmosp6ere o& 3itan isnAt t6ik eno8)6 to pre'ent lar)e, 6i)6-speed obHets &rom rea6in) t6e
s8r&ae$< ,lt6o8)6 (eA'e ne'er seen t6e s8r&ae o& 3itan, planetar7 sientists ne'ert6eless kno(
somet6in) abo8t its omposition$ 36e a'era)e densit7 o& 3itan lies bet(een t6e densit7 o& ie and
t6e densit7 o& rok$ 0la8sibl7 it ontains bot6$ Ie and rok are ab8ndant on nearb7 (orlds, some
o& (6i6 are made o& nearl7 p8re rie$ I& t6e s8r&ae o& 3itan is i7, a 6i)6-speed ometar7 impat
(ill temporaril7 melt t6e ie$ 36ompson and I estimate t6at an7 )i'en spot on 3itanAs s8r&ae 6as
a better t6an 50-50 6ane o& 6a'in) one been melted, (it6 an a'era)e li&etime o& t6e impat
melt and sl8rr7 o& almost a t6o8sand 7ears$
36is makes &or a 'er7 di&&erent stor7$ 36e ori)in o& li&e on Eart6 seems to 6a'e o8rred in
oeans and s6allo( tidepools$ .i&e on Eart6 is made mainl7 o& (ater, (6i6 pla7s an essential
p67sial and 6emial role$ Indeed, itAs 6ard, &or 8s (ater-besotted reat8res to ima)ine li&e
(it6o8t (ater$ I& on o8r planet t6e ori)in o& li&e took less t6an a 68ndred million 7ears, is t6ere
an7 6ane t6at on 3itan it took a t6o8sandD *it6 t6olins miCed into liK8id (ater-e'en &or onl7 a
t6o8sand 7ears t6e s8r&ae o& 3itan ma7 be m86 &8rt6er alon) to(ard t6e ori)in o& li&e t6an (e
t6o8)6t$
DESPITE ALL THIS (e 8nderstand piti&8ll7 little abo8t 3itan$ 36is (as bro8)6t 6ome &ore&8ll7 to
me at a sienti&i s7mposi8m on 3itan 6eld in 3o8lo8se, %rane, and sponsored b7 t6e E8ropean
Spae ,)en7 =ES,<$ *6ile oeans o& liK8id (ater are impossible on 3itan, oeans o& liK8id
67droarbons are not$ +lo8ds o& met6ane =+4
4
<, t6e most ab8ndant 67droarbon, are eCpeted
not &ar abo'e t6e s8r&ae$ Et6ane =+
"
4
6
<, t6e neCt most ab8ndant 67droarbon, m8st ondense
o8t at t6e s8r&ae in t6e same (a7 t6at (ater 'apor beomes a liK8id near t6e s8r&ae o& t6e
Eart6, (6ere t6e temperat8re is )enerall7 bet(een t6e &reeIin) and meltin) points$ #ast oeans
o& liK8id 67droarbons s6o8ld 6a'e a8m8lated o'er t6e li&etime o& 3itan$ 36e7 (o8ld lie &ar
beneat6 t6e 6aIe and lo8ds$ B8t t6at doesnAt mean t6e7 (o8ld be (6oll7 inaessible to 8sG
bea8se radio (a'es readil7 penetrate t6e atmosp6ere o& 3itan and its s8spended, slo(l7 &allin)
&ine partiles$
In 3o8lo8se, !8ane 2$ 586leman o& t6e +ali&ornia Instit8te o& 3e6nolo)7 desribed to 8s
t6e 'er7 di&&i8lt te6nial &eat o& transmittin) a set o& radio p8lses &rom a radio telesope in
+ali&orniaAs 5oHa'e !esert, so t6e7 rea6 3itan, penetrate t6ro8)6 t6e 6aIe and lo8ds to its
s8r&ae, are re&leted bak into spae, and t6en ret8rned to Eart6$ 4ere, t6e )reatl7 en&eebled
si)nal is piked 8p b7 an arra7 o& radio telesopes near Soorro, Ne( 5eCio$ /reat$ I& 3itan
6as a rok7 or i7 s8r&ae, a radar p8lse re&leted o&& its s8r&ae s6o8ld be detetable on Eart6$
B8t i& 3itan (ere o'ered (it6 67droarbon oeans, 586leman s6o8ldnAt see a t6in): .iK8id
67droarbons are blak to t6ese radio (a'es, and no e6o (o8ld 6a'e been ret8rned to Eart6$ In
60
&at, 586lemanAs )iant radar s7stem sees a re&letion (6en some lon)it8des o& 3itan are t8rned
to(ard Eart6, and not at ot6er lon)it8des$ ,ll ri)6t, 7o8 mi)6t sa7, so 3itan 6as oeans and
ontinents, and it (as a ontinent t6at re&leted t6e si)nals bak to Eart6$ B8t i& 3itani in t6is
respet like t6e Eart6G&or some meridians =t6ro8)6 E8rope and ,&ria, sa7< mainl7 ontinent,
and &or ot6ers =t6ro8)6 t6e entral 0ai&i, sa7< mainl7 oeanGt6en (e m8st on&ront anot6er
problem:
36e orbit o& 3itan aro8nd Sat8rn is not a per&et irle$ itAs notieabl7 sK8as6ed o8t, or
elliptial$ I& 3itan 6as eCtensi'e oeans, t6o8)6, t6e )iant planet Sat8rn aro8nd (6i6 it orbits
(ill raise s8bstantial tides on 3itan, and t6e res8ltin) tidal &rition (ill ir8lariIe 3itanAs orbit in
m86 less t6an t6e a)e o& t6e Solar S7stem$ In a 19;" sienti&i paper alled B36e 3ide in t6e
Seas o& 3itan,B Stanle7 !ermott, no( at t6e 1ni'ersit7 o& %lorida, and I ar)8ed t6at &or t6is
reason 3itan m8st be eit6er an all-oean or an all-land (orld$ 2t6er(ise t6e tidal &rition in
plaes (6ere t6e oean is s6allo( (o8ld 6a'e taken its toll$ .akes and islands mi)6t be
permitted, b8t an7t6in) more and 3itan (o8ld 6a'e a 'er7 di&&erent orbit t6an t6e one (e see$
*e 6a'e, t6en, t6ree sienti&i ar)8mentsGone onl8din) t6at t6is (orld is almost entirel7
o'ered (it6 67droarbon oeans, anot6er t6at itAs a miC o& ontinents and oeans, and a t6ird
reK8irin) 8s to 6oose, o8nselin) t6at 3itan anAt 6a'e eCtensi'e oeans and eCtensi'e
ontinents at t6e same time$ It (ill be interestin) to see (6at t6e ans(er t8rns o8t to be$
*6at IA'e H8st told 7o8 is a kind o& sienti&i pro)ress report$ 3omorro( t6ere mi)6t be a
ne( &indin) t6at lears 8p t6ese m7steries and ontraditions$ 5a7be t6ereAs somet6in) (ron)
(it6 586lemanAs radar res8lts, alt6o8)6 itAs 6ard to see (6at it mi)6t be: 4is s7stem tells 6im
6eAs seein) 3itan (6en itAs nearest, (6en 6e o8)6t to be seein) 3itan$ 5a7be t6ereAs somet6in)
(ron) (it6 !ermottAs and m7 al8lation abo8t t6e tidal e'ol8tion o& t6e orbit o& 3itan, b8t no
one 6as been able to &ind an7 errors so &ar$ ,nd itAs Bard to see 6o( et6ane an a'oid ondensin)
o8t at t6e s8r&ae o& 3itan$ 5a7be, despite t6e lo( temperat8res, o'er billions o& 7ears t6ereAs
been a 6an)e in t6e 6emistr7? ma7be some ombination o& omets impatin) &rom t6e sk7 and
'olanoes and ot6er tetoni e'ents, 6elped alon) b7 osmi ra7s, an on)eal liK8id
67droarbons, t8rnin) t6em into some ompleC or)ani solid t6at re&lets radio (a'es bak to
spae$ 2r ma7be somet6in) re&leti'e to radio (a'es is &loatin) on t6e oean s8r&ae$ B8t liK8id
67droarbons are 'er7 8nderdense: E'er7 kno(n or)ani solid, 8nless eCtremel7 &rot67, (o8ld
sink like a stone in t6e seas o& 3itan$
!ermott and I no( (onder (6et6er, (6en (e ima)ined ontinents and oeans on 3itan, (e
(ere too trans&iCed b7 o8r eCperiene on o8r o(n (orld, too Eart6-6a8'inist in o8r t6inkin)$
Battered, ratered terrain and ab8ndant impat basins o'er ot6er moons in t6e Sat8rn s7stem$ I&
(e pit8red liK8id 67droarbons slo(l7 a8m8latin) on one o& t6ose (orlds, (e (o8ld (ind 8p
not (it6 )lobal oeans, b8t (it6 isolated lar)e raters &illed, alt6o8)6 not to t6e brim, (it6 liK8id
67droarbons$ 5an7 ir8lar seas o& petrole8m, some o'er a 68ndred miles aross, (o8ld be
splattered aross t6e s8r&aeGb8t no pereptible (a'es (o8ld be stim8lated b7 distant Sat8rn
and, it is on'entional to t6ink, no s6ips, no s(immers, no s8r&ers, and no &is6in)$ 3idal &rition
s6o8ld, (e al8late, be ne)li)ible in s86 a ase, and 3itanAs stret6ed-o8t, elliptial orbit (o8ld
not 6a'e beome so ir8lar$ *e anAt kno( &or s8re 8ntil (e start )ettin) radar or near-in&rared
61
ima)es o& t6e s8r&ae$ B8t per6aps t6is is t6e resol8tion o& o8r dilemma: 3itan as a (orld o& lar)e
ir8lar 67droarbon lakes, more o& t6em in some lon)it8des t6an in ot6ers$
S6o8ld (e eCpet an i7 s8r&ae o'ered (it6 deep t6olin sediments, a 67droarbon oean
(it6 at most a &e( or)ani enr8sted islands pokin) 8p 6ere and t6ere, a (orld o& rater lakes, or
somet6in) more s8btle t6at (e 6a'enAt 7et &i)8red o8tD 36is isnAt H8st an aademi K8estion,
bea8se t6ereAs a real spaera&t bein) desi)ned to )o to 3itan$ In a Hoint N,S,NES, pro)ram, a
spaera&t alled +assini (ill be la8n6ed in 2tober 1997Gi& all )oes (ell$ *it6 t(o &l7b7s o&
#en8s, one o& Eart6, and one o& >8piter &or )ra'itational assists, t6e s6ip (ill, a&ter a se'en-7ear
'o7a)e, be inHeted into orbit aro8nd Sat8rn$ Ea6 time t6e spaera&t omes lose to 3itan, t6e
moon (ill be eCamined b7 an arra7 o& instr8ments, inl8din) radar$ Bea8se +assini (ill be so
m86 loser to 3itan, it (ill be able to resol'e man7 details on 3itanAs s8r&ae indetetable to
586lemanAs pioneerin) Eart6-based s7stem$ ItAs also likel7 t6at t6e s8r&ae an be 'ie(ed in t6e
near in&rared$ 5aps o& t6e 6idden s8r&ae o& 3itan ma7 be in o8r 6ands sometime in t6e s8mmer
o& "004$
+assini is also arr7in) an entr7 probe, &ittin)l7 alled 1u$gen9 (6i6 (ill deta6 itsel&
&rom t6e main spaera&t and pl8mmet into 3itanAs atmosp6ere$ , )reat para68te (ill be
deplo7ed$ 36e instr8ment paka)e (ill slo(l7 settle t6ro8)6 t6e or)ani 6aIe do(n into t6e
lo(er atmosp6ere, t6ro8)6 t6e met6ane lo8ds$ It (ill eCamine or)ani 6emistr7 as it desends,
andGi& it s8r'i'es t6e landin)Gon t6e s8r&ae o& t6is (orld as (ell$
Not6in) is )8aranteed$ B8t t6e mission is te6niall7 &easible, 6ard(are is bein) b8ilt, an
impressi'e oterie o& speialists, inl8din) man7 7o8n) E8ropean sientists, are 6ard at (ork on
it, and all t6e nations responsible seem ommitted to t6e proHet$ 0er6aps it (ill at8all7 ome
abo8t$ 0er6aps (in)in) aross t6e billion miles o& inter'enin) interplanetar7 spae (ill be, in t6e
not too distant &8t8re$ ne(s abo8t 6o( &ar alon) t6e pat6 to li&e 3itan 6as ome$
6"
C H A P T E R 8
34E %I-S3
NE* 0.,NE3
1 implore $ou9 $ou )o no" (ope "o ;e a;le "o gi4e "(e reaon
5or "(e num;er o5 plane"9 )o $ouE
36is (orr7 6as been resol'ed $ $ $
>24,NNES EE0.E-,
EP!/OME O2 #OPE-0!#A0 AS/-O0OM,9
B22E 4 N 16"1
63
Be&ore (e in'ented i'iliIation, o8r anestors li'ed mainl7 in t6e open, o8t 8nder t6e sk7$
Be&ore (e de'ised arti&iial li)6ts and atmosp6eri poll8tion and modern &orms o& not8rnal
entertainment, (e (at6ed t6e stars$ 36ere (ere pratial alendrial reasons, o& o8rse, b8t
t6ere (as more to it t6an t6at$ E'en toda7, t6e most Haded it7 d(eller an be 8neCpetedl7
mo'ed 8pon eno8nterin) a lear ni)6t sk7 st8dded (it6 t6o8sands o& t(inklin) stars$ *6en it
6appens to me a&ter all t6ese 7ears, it still takes m7 breat6 a(a7$
In e'er7 8lt8re, t6e sk7 and t6e reli)io8s imp8lse are intert(ined$ I lie bak in an open
&ield and t6e sk7 s8rro8nd me$ IAm o'erpo(ered b7 its sale$ ItAs so 'ast and so &ar a(a7 t6at m7
o(n insi)ni&iane beomes palpable$ B8t I donAt &eel reHeted b7 t6e sk7$ IAm a part o& it, tin7, to
be s8re, b8t e'er7t6in) is tin7 ompared to t6at o'er(6elmin) immensit7, ,nd (6en I
onentrate on t6e stars, t6e planets, and t6eir motions, I 6a'e an irresistible sense o& ma6iner7,
lok(ork, ele)ant preision (orkin) on a sale t6at, 6o(e'er lo&t7 o8r aspirations, d(ar&s and
68mbles 8s$
5ost o& t6e )reat in'entions in 68man 6istor7G&rom stone tools and t6e domestiation o&
&ire to (ritten lan)8a)eG(ere made b7 8nkno(n bene&ators$ 28r instit8tional memor7 o& lon)-
)one e'ents is &eeble$ *e do not kno( t6e name o& t6at anestor (6o &irst noted t6at planets
(ere di&&erent &rom stars$ S6e or 6e m8st 6a'e li'ed tens, per6aps e'en 68ndreds o& t6o8sands o&
7ears a)o$ B8t e'ent8all7 people all o'er t6e (orld 8nderstood t6at &i'e, no more, o& t6e bri)6t
points o& li)6t t6at )rae t6e ni)6t sk7 break lokstep (it6 t6e ot6ers o'er a period o& mont6s,
mo'in) stran)el7-almost as i& t6e7 6ad minds o& t6eir o(n$
S6arin) t6e odd apparent motion o& t6ese planets (ere t6e S8n and 5oon, makin) se'en
(anderin) bodies in all$ 36ese se'en (ere important to t6e anients, and t6e7 named t6em a&ter
)ods not an7 old )ods, b8t t6e main )ods, t6e 6ie& )ods, t6e ones (6o tell ot6er )ods =and
mortals< (6at to do$ 2ne o& t6e planets, bri)6t and slo(-mo'in), (as named b7 t6e Bab7lonians
a&ter 5ard8k, b7 t6e Norse a&ter 2din, b7 t6e /reeks a&ter @e8s, and b7 t6e -omans a&ter >8piter,
in ea6 ase t6e kin) o& t6e )ods$ 36e &aint, &ast-mo'in) one t6at (as ne'er &ar &rom t6e S8n t6e
-omans named 5er8r7, a&ter t6e messen)er o& t6e )ods? t6e most brilliant o& t6em (as named
#en8s, a&ter t6e )oddess o& lo'e and bea8t7? t6e blood red one 5ars, a&ter t6e )od o& (ar? and
t6e most sl8))is6 o& t6e b8n6 Sat8rn, a&ter t6e )od o& time$ 36ese metap6ors and all8sions (ere
t6e best o8r anestors o8ld do: 36e7 possessed no sienti&i instr8ments be7ond t6e naked e7e,
t6e7 (ere on&ined to t6e Eart6, and t6e7 6ad no idea t6at it, too, is a planet$
1
*6en it )ot to be time to desi)n t6e (eekGa period o& time, 8nlike t6e da7, mont6, and 7ear,
(it6 no intrinsi astronomial si)ni&ianeGit (as assi)ned se'en da7s, ea6 named a&ter one o&
1
36ere (as one moment in t6e last 4,000 7ears (6en all se'en o& t6ese elestial bodies (ere l8stered ti)6tl7 to)et6er$ >8st be&ore
da(n on 5ar6 4, 1953 B$+$, t6e resent 5oon (as at t6e 6oriIon$ #en8s, 5er8r7, 5ars, Sat8rn, and >8piter (ere str8n) o8t like
He(els on a neklae near t6e )reat sK8are in t6e onstellation 0e)as8sGnear t6e spot &rom (6i6 in o8r time t6e 0erseid meteor
s6o(er emanates$ E'en as8al (at6ers o& t6e sk7 m8st 6a'e been trans&iCed b7 t6e e'ent$ *6at (as itGa omm8nion o& t6e )odsD
,ordin) to t6e astronomer !a'id 0ankenier o& .e6i)6 1ni'ersit7 and later Ee'in 0an) o& >0., t6is e'ent (as t6e startin) point &or
t6e planetar7 7les o& t6e anient +6inese astronomers$ 36ere is no ot6er time in t6e last 4,000 7ears =or in t6e neCt< (6en t6e
dane o& t6e planets aro8nd t6e S8n brin)s t6em so lose to)et6er &rom t6e 'anta)e point o& Eart6$ B8t on 5a7 5, "000, all se'en (ill
be 'isible in t6e same part o& t6e sk7Galt6o8)6 some at da(n and some at d8sk and abo8t ten times more spread o8t t6an on t6at late
(inter mornin) in 1953 B$+$ Still, itAs 0robabl7 a )ood ni)6t &or a part7$
64
t6e se'en anomalo8s li)6ts in t6e ni)6t sk7$ *e an readil7 make o8t t6e remnants o& t6is
on'ention$ In En)lis6, Sat8rda7 is Sat8rnAs da7$ S8nda7 and 5oQoRnda7 are lear eno8)6$
38esda7 t6ro8)6 %rida7 are named a&ter t6e )ods o& t6e SaCon and kindred 3e8toni in'aders o&
+eltiN-oman Britain: *ednesda7, &or eCample, is 2dinAs =or *odinAs< da7, (6i6 (o8ld be more
apparent i& (e prono8ned it as itAs spelled, B*ednAs !a7B? 368rsda7 is 36orAs da7? %rida7 is t6e
da7 o& %re7a, )oddess o& lo'e$ 36e last da7 o& t6e (eek sta7ed -oman, t6e rest o& it beame
/erman$
In all -omane lan)8a)es, s86 as %ren6, Spanis6, and Italian, t6e onnetion is still more
ob'io8s, bea8se t6e7 4 deri'e &rom anient .atin, in (6i6 t6e da7s o& t6e (eek (ere named
=in order, be)innin) (it6 S8nda7< a&ter t6e S8n, t6e 5oon, 5ars, 5er8r7, >8piter, #en8s, and
Sat8rn$ =36e S8nAs da7 beame t6e .ordAs da7$< 36e7 o8ld 6a'e named t6e da7s in order o& t6e
bri)6tness o& t6e orrespondin) astronomial bodiesGt6e S8n, t6e 5oon, #en8s, >8piter, 5ars,
Sat8rn, 5er8r7 =and t68s S8nda7, 5onda7, %rida7, 368rsda7, 38esda7, Sat8rda7, *ednesda7<
Gb8t t6e7 did not$ I& t6e da7s o& t6e (eek in -omane lan)8a)es 6ad been ordered b7 distane
&rom t6e S8n, t6e seK8ene (o8ld be S8nda7, *ednesda7, %rida7, 5onda7, 38esda7, 368rsda7,
Sat8rda7$ No one kne( t6e order o& t6e planets, t6o8)6, bak (6en (e (ere namin) planets,
)ods, and da7s o& t6e (eek$ 36e orderin) o& t6e da7s o& t6e (eek seems arbitrar7, alt6o8)6
per6aps it does akno(led)e t6e prima7 o& t6e S8n$
36is olletion o& se'en )ods, se'en da7s, and se'en (orlds t6e S8n, t6e 5oon, and t6e &i'e
(anderin) planets entered t6e pereptions o& people e'er7(6ere$ 36e n8mber se'en be)an to
aK8ire s8pernat8ral onnotations$ 36ere (ere se'en B6ea'ens,B t6e transparent sp6erial s6ells,
entered on t6e Eart6, t6at (ere ima)ined to make t6ese (orlds mo'e$ 36e o8termostGt6e
se'ent6 6ea'enGis (6ere t6e B&iCedB stars (ere ima)ined to reside$ 36ere are Se'en !a7s o&
+reation =i& (e inl8de /odAs da7 o& rest<, se'en ori&ies to t6e 6ead, se'en 'irt8es, se'en deadl7
sins, se'en e'il demons in S8merian m7t6$ se'en 'o(els in t6e /reek alp6abet =ea6 a&&iliated
(it6 a planetar7 )od<, Se'en /o'ernors o& !estin7 aordin) to t6e 4ermetists, Se'en /reat
Books o& 5ani6aeism, Se'en Saraments, Se'en Sa)es o& ,nient /reee, and se'en
al6emial BbodiesB =)old, sil'er, iron, mer8r7, lead, tin, and opperG)old still assoiated (it6
t6e S8n, sil'er (it6 t6e 5oon, iron (it6 5ars, et$<$ 36e se'ent6 son o& a se'ent6 son is
endo(ed (it6 s8pernat8ral po(ers$ Se'en is a Bl8k7B n8mber$ In t6e Ne( 3estamentAs Book o&
-e'elations, se'en seals on a sroll are opened, se'en tr8mpets are so8nded, se'en bo(ls are
&illed$ St$ ,8)8stine obs8rel7 ar)8ed &or t6e m7sti importane o& se'en on t6e )ro8nds t6at
t6ree Bis t6e &irst (6ole n8mber t6at is oddB =(6at abo8t oneD<, B&o8r t6e &irst t6at is e'enB =(6at
abo8t t(oD<, and Bo& t6ese $ $ $ se'en is omposed$B ,nd so on$ E'en in o8r time t6ese
assoiations lin)er$
36e eCistene e'en o& t6e &o8r satellites o& >8piter t6at /alileo diso'eredG6ardl7 planets
G(as disbelie'ed on t6e )ro8nds t6at it 6allen)ed t6e preedene o& t6e n8mber se'en$ ,s
aeptane o& t6e +opernian s7stem )re(, t6e Eart6 (as added to t6e list o& planets, and t6e S8n
and 5oon (ere remo'ed$ 368s, t6ere seemed to be onl7 siC planets =5er8r7, #en8s, Eart6,
5ars, >8piter, and Sat8rn<$ So learned aademi ar)8ments (ere in'ented s6o(in) (67 t6ere
(a) to be siC$ %or eCample, siC is t6e &irst Bper&etB n8mber, eK8al to t6e s8m o& its di'isors =1 S
65
" S 3<$ T$E$!$ ,nd an7(a7, t6ere (ere onl7 siC da7s o& reation, not se'en$ 0eople &o8nd (a7s
to aommodate &rom se'en planets to siC$
,s t6ose adept at n8merolo)ial m7stiism adH8sted to t6e +opernian s7stem, t6is sel&-
ind8l)ent mode o& t6inkin) spilled o'er &rom planets to moons$ 36e Eart6 6ad one moon? >8piter
6ad t6e &o8r /alilean moons$ 36at made &i'e$ +learl7 one (as missin)$ =!onAt &or)et: SiC is t6e
&irst per&et n8mber$< *6en 487)ens diso'ered 3itan in 1655, 6e and man7 ot6ers on'ined
t6emsel'es t6at it (as t6e last: SiC planets, siC moons, and /odAs in 4is 4ea'en$
36e 6istorian o& siene I$ Bernard +o6en o& 4ar'ard 1ni'ersit7 6as pointed o8t t6at
487)ens at8all7 )a'e 8p sear6in) &or ot6er moons bea8se it (as apparent, &rom s86
ar)8ments, t6at no more (ere to be &o8nd$ SiCteen 7ears later, ironiall7 (it6 487)ens in
attendane, /$ !$ +assim
1
o& t6e 0aris 2bser'ator7 diso'ered a se'ent6 moonGIapet8s, a
biIarre (orld (it6 one 6emisp6ere blak and t6e ot6er (6ite, in an orbit eCterior to 3itanAs$
S6ortl7 a&ter, +assim diso'ered -6ea, t6e neCt Sat8rnian moon interior to 3itan$
4ere (as anot6er opport8nit7 &or n8merolo)7, t6is time 6arnessed to t6e pratial task o&
&latterin) patrons$ +assim added 8p t6e n8mber o& planets =siC< and t6e n8mber o& satellites
=ei)6t< and )ot &o8rteen$ No( it so 6appened t6at t6e man (6o b8ilt +assimAs obser'ator7 &or
6im and paid 6is salar7 (as .o8is 9I# o& %rane, t6e S8n Ein)$ 36e astronomer promptl7
BpresentedB t6ese t(o ne( moons to 6is so'erei)n and prolaimed t6at .o8isAs BonK8estsB
rea6ed to t6e ends o& t6e Solar S7stem$ !isreetl7, +assim t6en baked o&& &rom lookin) &or
more moons? +o6en s8))ests 6e (as a&raid one more mi)6t no( o&&end .o8isGa monar6 not
to be tri&led (it6, (6o (o8ld s6ortl7 be t6ro(in) 6is s8bHets into d8n)eons &or t6e rime o&
bein) 0rotestants$ 3(el'e 7ears later, t6o8)6, +assim ret8rned to t6e sear6 and &o8ndG
do8btless (it6 a meas8re o& trepidationGanot6er t(o moons$ =It is probabl7 a )ood t6in) t6at
(e 6a'e not ontin8ed in t6is 'ein? ot6er(ise %rane (o8ld 6a'e been b8rdened b7 se'ent7-
some-odd Bo8rbon kin)s named .o8is$<
WHEN CLAIMS OF NEW WORLDS WERE MADE In t6e late ei)6teent6 ent8r7, t6e &ore o& s86
n8merolo)ial ar)8ments 6ad m86 dissipated$ Still, it (as (it6 a real sense o& s8rprise t6at
people 6eard in 17;1 abo8t a ne( planet, diso'ered t6ro8)6 t6e telesope$ Ne( moons (ere
omparati'el7 8nimpressi'e, espeiall7 a&ter t6e &irst siC or ei)6t$ B8t t6at t6ere (ere ne(
plane" to be &o8nd and t6at 68mans 6ad de'ised t6e means to do so (ere bot6 onsidered
astonis6in), and properl7 so$ I& t6ere is one pre'io8sl7 8nkno(n planet, t6ere ma7 be man7
moreGin t6is solar s7stem and in ot6ers$ *6o an tell (6at mi)6t be &o8nd i& a m8ltit8de o&
ne( (orlds are 6idin) in t6e darkD
36e diso'er7 (as made not e'en b7 a pro&essional astronomer b8t b7 *illiam 4ers6el, a
m8siian (6ose relati'es 6ad ome to Britain (it6 t6e &amil7 o& anot6er an)li&ied /erman, t6e
rei)nin) monar6 and &8t8re oppressor o& t6e ,merian olonists, /eor)e III$ It beame
4ers6elAs (is6 to all t6e planet /eor)e =B/eor)eAs Star,B at8all7<, a&ter 6is patron$ b8t,
pro'identiall7, t6e name didnAt stik$ =,stronomers seem to 6a'e been 'er7 b8s7 b8tterin) 8p
1
,&ter (6om t6e E8ropean-,merian mission to t6e Sat8rn s7stem is named$
66
kin)s$< Instead, t6e planet t6at 4ers6el &o8nd is alled 1ran8s =an ineC6a8stible so8re o&
6ilarit7 rene(ed in ea6 )eneration o& En)lis6-speakin) nine-7ear-olds<$ It is named a&ter t6e
anient sk7 )od (6o, aordin) to /reek m7t6, (as Sat8rnAs &at6er and t68s t6e )rand&at6er o&
t6e 2l7mpian )ods$
*e no lon)er onsider t6e S8n and 5oon to be planets, and i)norin) t6e omparati'el7
insi)ni&iant asteroids and omets, o8nt 1ran8s as t6e se'ent6 planet in order &rom t6e S8n
=5er8r7, #en8s, Eart6, 5ars, >8piter, Sat8rn, 1ran8s, Nept8ne, 0l8to<$ It is t6e &irst planet
8nkno(n to t6e anients$ 36e &o8r o8ter, >o'ian, planets t8rn o8t to be 'er7 di&&erent &rom t6e
&o8r inner, terrestrial, planets$ 0l8to is a separate ase$
,s t6e 7ears passed and t6e K8alit7 o& astronomial instr8ments 8npro'ed, (e be)an to learn
more abo8t distant 1ran8s$ *6at re&lets t6e dim s8nli)6t bak to 8s is no solid s8r&ae, b8t
atmosp6ere and lo8ds H8st as &or 3itan, #en8s, >8piter Sat8rn, and Nept8ne$ 36e air on 1ran8s
is made o& 67dro)en and 6eli8m, t6e t(o simplest )ases$ 5et6ane and ot6er 67droarbons are
also present$ >8st belo( t6e lo8ds 'isible to Eart6bo8nd obser'ers is a massi'e atmosp6ere
(it6 enormo8s K8antities o& ammonia, 67dro)en s8l&ide, and, espeiall7, (ater$
,t dept6 on >8piter and Sat8rn, t6e press8res are so )reat t6at atoms s(eat eletrons, and
t6e air beomes a metal$ 36at does not seem to 6appen on less massi'e 1ran8s, bea8se t6e
press8res at dept6 are less$ Still deeper, diso'ered onl7 b7 its s8btle t8)s on 1ran8sA moons,
(6oll7 inaessible to 'ie(, 8nder t6e r8s6in) (ei)6t o& t6e o'erl7in) atmosp6ere, is a rok7
s8r&ae$ , bi) Eart6like planet is 6idin) do(n t6ere, s(at6ed in an immense blanket o& air$
36e Eart6As s8r&ae temperat8re is d8e to t6e s8nli)6t it interepts$ 38rn o&& t6e S8n and t6e
planet soon 6illsGnot to tri&lin) ,ntarti old, not H8st so old t6at t6e oeans &reeIe, b8t to a
old so intense t6at t6e 'er7 air preipitates o8t, &ormin) a ten-meter-t6ik la7er o& oC7)en and
nitro)en sno(s o'erin) t6e (6ole planet$ 36e little bit o& ener)7 t6at trikles 8p &rom t6e
Eart6As 6ot interior (o8ld be ins8&&iient to melt t6ese sno(s$ %or >8piter, Sat8rn, and Nept8ne
itAs di&&erent$ 36ereAs abo8t as m86 6eat po8rin) o8t &rom t6eir interiors as t6e7 aK8ire &rom t6e
(armt6 o& t6e distant S8n$ 38rn o&& t6e S8n, and t6e7 (o8ld be onl7 a little a&&eted$
B8t 1ran8s is anot6er stor7$ 1ran8s is an anomal7 amon) t6e >o'ian planets$ 1ran8s is like
t6e Eart6: 36ereAs 'er7 little intrinsi 6eat po8rin) o8t$ *e 6a'e no )ood 8nderstandin) o& (67
t6is s6o8ld be, (67 1ran8sG(6i6 in man7 respets is so similar to Nept8neGs6o8ld lak a
potent so8re o& internal 6eat$ %or t6is reason, amon) ot6ers, (e annot sa7 (e 8nderstand (6at
is )oin) on in t6e deep interiors o& t6ese mi)6t7 (orlds$
1ran8s is l7in) on its side as it )oes aro8nd t6e S8n$ In t6e 1990s$ t6e so8t6 pole is 6eated
b7 t6e S8n, and it is t6is pole t6at Eart6bo8nd obser'ers at t6e end o& t6e t(entiet6 ent8r7 see
(6en t6e7 look at 1ran8s$ It takes 1ran8s ;4 Eart6 7ears to make one ir8it o& t6e S8n$ So in
t6e "030s, t6e nort6 pole (ill be s8n(ard =and Eart6(ard<$ In t6e "070s t6e so8t6 pole (ill be
pointin) to t6e S8n one a)ain$ In bet(een, Eart6bo8nd astronomers (ill be lookin) mainl7 at
eK8atorial latit8des$
,ll t6e ot6er planets spin m86 more 8pri)6t in t6eir orbits$ No one is s8re o& t6e reason
&or 1ran8sA anomalo8s spin? t6e most promisin) s8))estion is t6at sometime in its earl7
6istor7, billions o& 7ears a)o, it (as str8k b7 a ro)8e planet, abo8t t6e siIe o& t6e Eart6, in a
67
6i)6l7 eentri orbit$ S86 a ollision, i& it e'er 6appened, m8st 6a'e (orked m86 t8m8lt in
t6e 1ran8s s7stem? &or all (e kno(, t6ere ma7 be ot6er 'esti)es o& anient 6a'o still le&t &or
8s to &ind$ B8t 1ran8sA remoteness tends to )8ard its m7steries$
In 1977 a team o& sientists led b7 >ames Elliot, t6en o& +ornell 1ni'ersit7, aidentall7
diso'ered t6at, like Sat8rn, 1ran8s 6as rin)s$ 36e sientists (ere &l7in) o'er t6e Indian 2ean
in a speial N,S, airplaneGt6e E8iper ,irborne 2bser'ator7Gto (itness t6e passa)e o&
1ran8s in &ront o& a star$ =S86 passa)es, or o8ltations as t6e7Are alled, 6appen &rom time to
time, preisel7 bea8se 1ran8s slo(l7 mo'es (it6 respet to t6e distant stars$< 36e obser'ers
(ere s8rprised to &ind t6at t6e star (inked on and o&& se'eral times H8st be&ore it passed be6ind
1ran8s and its atmosp6ere, t6en se'eral times more H8st a&ter it emer)ed$ Sine t6e patterns o&
(inkin) on and o&& (ere t6e same be&ore and a&ter o8ltation, t6is &indin) =and m86
s8bseK8ent (ork< 6as led to t6e diso'er7 o& nine 'er7 t6in, 'er7 dark ir8mplanetar7 rin)s,
)i'in) 1ran8s t6e appearane o& a b8llAs-e7e in t6e sk7$
S8rro8ndin) t6e rin)s, Eart6bo8nd obser'ers 8nderstood (ere t6e onentri orbits o& t6e
&i'e moons t6en kno(n: 5iranda, ,riel, 1mbriel, 3itania, and 2beron$ 36e7Are named a&ter
6araters in S6akespeareAs , Mi)ummer 0ig("6 .ream and /(e /empe"9 and in ,leCander
0opeAs /(e -ape o5 "(e &o7k3 /<o o& t6em (ere &o8nd b7 4ers6el 6imsel&$ 36e innermost o& t6e
&i'e, 5iranda, (as diso'ered as reentl7 as 194;, b7 m7 tea6er /$ 0$ E8iper$
1
I remember 6o(
)reat an a6ie'ement t6e diso'er7 o& a ne( moon o& 1ran8s (as onsidered bak t6en$ 36e
near-in&rared li)6t re&leted b7 all &i'e moons s8bseK8entl7 re'ealed t6e spetral si)nat8re o&
ordinar7 (ater ie on t6eir S8r&aes$ ,nd no (onderG1ran8s is so &ar &rom t6e S8n t6at it is no
bri)6ter t6ere at noontime t6an it is a&ter s8nset on Eart6$ 36e temperat8res are &ri)id$ ,n7 (ater
m8st be &roIen$
A REVOLUTION IN OUR UNDERSTANDING o& t6e 1ran8s s7stemGt6e planet, its rin)s, and its
moonsGbe)an on >an8ar7 "4, 19;6$ 2n t6at da7, a&ter a Ho8rne7 o& ;M 7ears, t6e Vo$ager 2
spaera&t sailed 'er7 near to 5iranda, and 6it t6e b8llAs-e7e in t6e sk7$ 1ran8sA )ra'it7 t6en
&l8n) it on to Nept8ne$ 36e spaera&t ret8rned 4,300 lose-8p pit8res o& t6e 1ran8s s7stem and
a (ealt6 o& ot6er data$
1ran8s (as &o8nd to be s8rro8nded b7 an intense radiation belt, eletrons and protons
trapped b7 t6e planetAs ma)neti &ield$ Vo$ager &le( t6ro8)6 t6is radiation belt, meas8rin) t6e
ma)neti &ield and t6e trapped 6ar)ed partiles as it (ent$ It also detetedGin 6an)in) timbres,
6armonies, and n8ane, b8t mainl7 in 5or"iimoGa aop6on7 o& radio (a'es )enerated b7 t6e
speedin), trapped partiles$ Somet6in) similar (as diso'ered on >8piter and Sat8rn and (o8ld
be later &o8nd at Nept8neGb8t al(a7s (it6 a t6eme and o8nterpoint 6arateristi o& ea6
(orld$
1
4e so named it bea8se o& t6e (ords spoken b7 5iranda, t6e 6eroine o& /(e 3empest: B2 bra'e ne( (orld, 36at 6as s86 people
inAt$B =3o *6i6 0rospero replies, BA3is ne( to t6ee$B >8st so$ .ike all t6e ot6er (orlds in t6e Solar S7stem, 5iranda is abo8t 4$5
billion 7ears old$<
6;
2n Eart6 t6e ma)neti and )eo)rap6ial poles are K8ite lose to)et6er$ 2n 1ran8s t6e
ma)neti aCis and t6e aCis o& rotation are tilted a(a7 &rom ea6 ot6er b7 some 60 de)rees$ No
one 7et 8nderstands (67: Some 6a'e s8))ested t6at (e are at6in) 1ran8s in a re'ersal o& its
nort6 and so8t6 ma)neti poles, as periodiall7 6appens on Eart6$ 2t6ers propose t6at t6is too is
t6e onseK8ene o& t6at mi)6t7, anient ollision t6at knoked t6e planet o'er$ B8t (e do not
kno($
1ran8s is emittin) m86 more 8ltra'iolet li)6t t6an itAs reei'in) &rom t6e S8n, probabl7
)enerated b7 6ar)ed partiles leakin) o8t o& t6e ma)netosp6ere and strikin) its 8pper
atmosp6ere$ %rom a 'anta)e point in t6e 1ran8s s7stem, t6e spaera&t eCamined a bri)6t star
(inkin) on and o&& as t6e rin)s o& 1ran8s passed b7$ Ne( &aint d8st bands (ere &o8nd$ %rom t6e
perspeti'e o& Eart6, t6e spaera&t passed be6ind 1ran8s? so t6e radio si)nals it (as
transmittin) bak 6ome passed tan)entiall7 t6ro8)6 t6e 1ranian atmosp6ere, probin) itGto
belo( its met6ane lo8ds$ , 'ast and deep oean, per6aps ;,000 kilometers t6ik, o& s8per-
6eated liK8id (ater &loatin) in t6e air is in&erred b7 some$
,mon) t6e prinipal )lories o& t6e 1ran8s eno8nter (ere t6e pit8res$ *it6 Vo$agerAs t(o
tele'ision ameras, (e diso'ered ten ne( moons, determined t6e len)t6 o& t6e da7 in t6e lo8ds
o& 1ran8s =abo8t 17 6o8rs<, and st8died abo8t a doIen rin)s$ 36e most speta8lar pit8res (ere
t6ose ret8rned &rom t6e &i'e lar)er, pre'io8sl7 kno(n moons o& 1ran8s, espeiall7 t6e smallest
o& t6em, E8iperAs 5iranda$ Its s8r&ae is a t8m8lt o& &a8lt 'alle7s, parallel rid)es, s6eer li&&s,
lo( mo8ntains, impat raters, and &roIen &loods o& one-molten s8r&ae material$ 36is t8rmoiled
landsape is 8neCpeted &or a small, old, i7 (orld so distant &rom t6e S8n$ 0er6aps t6e s8r&ae
(as melted and re(orked in some lon)-)one epo6 (6en a )ra'itational resonane bet(een
1ran8s, 5iranda, and ,riel p8mped ener)7 &rom t6e nearb7 planet into 5irandaAs interior$ 2r
per6aps (e are seein) t6e res8lts o& t6e primordial ollision t6at is t6o8)6t to 6a'e knoked
1ran8s o'er$ 2r, H8st onei'abl7, ma7be 5iranda (as one 8tterl7 destro7ed, dismembered,
blasted into smit6ereens b7 a (ild areenin) (orld, (it6 man7 ollision &ra)ments still le&t in
5irandaAs orbit$ 36e s6ards and remnants, slo(l7 ollidin), )ra'itationall7 attratin) one
anot6er, ma7 6a'e re-a))re)ated into H8st s86 a H8mbled, pat67, 8n&inis6ed (orld as 5iranda is
toda7$
%or me, t6ereAs somet6in) eerie abo8t t6e pit8res o& d8sk7 5iranda, bea8se I an
remember so (ell (6en it V'as onl7 a &aint point o& li)6t almost lost in t6e )lare o& 1ran8s,
diso'ered t6ro8)6 )reat di&&i8lt7 b7 dint o& t6e astronomerAs skills and patiene$ In onl7 6al& a
li&etime it 6as )one &rom an 8ndiso'ered (orld to a destination (6ose anient and idios7nrati
serets 6a'e been at least partiall7 re'ealed$
69
C H A P T E R 9
,N ,5E-I+,N
70
S4I0 ,3 34E
%-2N3IE-S 2%
34E S2.,-
S:S3E5
$ $ $ b7 t6e s6ore
2& 3ritonAs .ake $ $ $
I (ill lear m7 breast o& serets$
E1-I0I!ES, I2N =+,$ 413 B$+$<
Nept8ne (as t6e &inal port o& all in Vo$ager 2As )rand to8r o& t6e Solar S7stem$ 1s8all7, it is
t6o8)6t o& as t6e pen8ltimate planet, (it6 0l8to t6e o8termost$ B8t bea8se o& 0l8toAs stret6ed-
o8t, elliptial orbit, Nept8ne 6as latel7 been t6e o8termost planet, and (ill remain so 8ntil 1999$
37pial temperat8res in its 8pper lo8ds are abo8t -"40U+, bea8se it is so &ar &rom t6e (armin)
ra7s o& t6e S8n$ It (o8ld be older still eCept &or t6e 6eat (ellin) 8p &rom its interior$ Nept8ne
)lides alon) t6e 6em o& interstellar ni)6t$ It is so &ar a(a7 t6at, in its sk7, t6e S8n appears as
little more t6an an eCtremel7 bri)6t star$
4o( &arD So &ar a(a7 t6at it 6as 7et to omplete a sin)le trip aro8nd t6e S8n, a Nept8nian
7ear, sine its diso'er7 in 1;46$
1
ItAs so &ar a(a7 t6at it annot be seen (it6 t6e naked e7e$ ItAs
so &ar a(a7 t6at it takes li)6tG&aster t6an (6i6 not6in) an )oGmore t6an &i'e 6o8rs to )et
&rom Nept8ne to Eart6$
1
It takes so lon) to ir8it t6e S8n bea8se its orbit is so 'ast, "3 billion miles aro8nd, and bea8se t6e &ore o& t6e S8nAs )ra'it7G
(6i6 keeps it &rom &l7in) o8t into interstellar spaeGis at t6at distant omparati'el7 &eeble, less t6an a t6o8sandt6 (6at it is in t6e
Eart6As 'iinit7$
71
*6en Vo$ager 2 raed t6ro8)6 t6e Nept8ne s7stem in 19;9, its ameras, spetrometers,
partile and &ield detetors, and ot6er instr8ments (ere &e'eris6l7 eCaminin) t6e planet, its
moons, and its rin)s$ 36e planet itsel&, like its o8sins >8piter, Sat8rn, and 1ran8s, is a )iant$
E'er7 planet is an Eart6like (orld at 6eartGb8t t6e &o8r )as )iants (ear elaborate, 8mbersome
dis)8ises$ >8piter and Sat8rn are )reat )as (orlds (it6 relati'el7 small rok7 and i7 ores$ B8t
1ran8s and Nept8ne are &8ndamentall7 rok and ie (orlds s(addled in dense atmosp6eres t6at
6ide t6em &rom 'ie($
Nept8ne is &o8r times bi))er t6an t6e Eart6$ *6en (e look do(n on its ool, a8stere
bl8eness, a)ain (e are seein) onl7 atmosp6ere and lo8dsGno solid s8r&ae$ ,)ain, t6e
atmosp6ere is made mainl7 o& 67dro)en and 6eli8m, (it6 a little met6ane and traes o& ot6er
67droarbons$ 36ere ma7 also be some nitro)en$ 36e bri)6t lo8ds, (6i6 seem to be met6ane
r7stals, &loat abo'e t6ik, deeper lo8ds o& 8nkno(n omposition$ %rom t6e motion o& t6e
lo8ds (e diso'ered &iere (inds, approa6in) t6e loal speed o& so8nd$ , /reat !ark Spot (as
&o8nd, 8rio8sl7 at almost t6e same latit8de as t6e /reat -ed Spot on >8piter$ 36e aI8re olor
seems appropriate &or a planet named a&ter t6e )od o& t6e sea$
S8rro8ndin) t6is diml7 lit, 6ill7, storm7, remote (orld isG6ere alsoGa s7stem o& rin)s,
ea6 omposed o& inn8merable orbitin) obHets ran)in) in siIe &rom t6e &ine partiles in
i)arette smoke to small tr8ks$ .ike t6e rin)s o& t6e ot6er >o'ian planets, t6ose o& Nept8ne
seem to be e'anesentGit is al8lated t6at )ra'it7 and solar radiation (ill disr8pt t6em in
m86 less t6an t6e a)e o& t6e Solar S7stem$ I& t6e7 are destro7ed K8ikl7, (e m8st see t6em
onl7 bea8se t6e7 (ere made reentl7$ B8t 6o( an rin)s be madeD
36e bi))est moon in t6e Nept8ne s7stem is alled 3riton$
1
Nearl7 siC o& o8r da7s are
reK8ired &or it to orbit Nept8ne, (6i6Galone amon) bi) moons in t6e Solar S7stemGit does in
t6e opposite diretion to (6i6 its planet spins =lok(ise i& (e sa7 Nept8ne rotates
o8nterlok(ise<$ 3riton 6as a nitro)en-ri6 atmosp6ere, some(6at similar to 3itanAs? b8t,
bea8se t6e air and 6aIe are m86 t6inner, (e an see its s8r&ae$ 36e landsapes are 'aried and
splendid$ 36is is a (orld o& iesGnitro)en ie, met6ane ie, probabl7 8nderlain b7 more &amiliar
(ater ie and rok$ 36ere are impat basins, (6i6 seem to 6a'e been &looded (it6 liK8id be&ore
re&reeIin) =so t6ere one (ere lakes on 3riton<? impat raters? lon) rissrossin) 'alle7s? 'ast
plains o'ered b7 &res6l7 &allen nitro)en sno(? p8kered terrain t6at resembles t6e skin o& a
antalo8pe? and more or less parallel, lon), dark streaks t6at seem to 6a'e been blo(n b7 t6e
(ind and t6en deposited on t6e i7 s8r&ae despite 6o( sparse 3ritonAs atmosp6ere is =abo8t
1N10,000 t6e t6ikness o& t6e Eart6As<$
,ll t6e raters on 3riton are pristineGas i& stamped o8t b7 some 'ast millin) de'ie$ 36ere
are no sl8mped (alls or m8ted relie&$ E'en (it6 t6e periodi &allin) and e'aporation o& sno(, it
seems t6at not6in) 6as eroded t6e s8r&ae o& 3riton in billions o& 7ears$ So t6e raters t6at (ere
)o8)ed o8t d8rin) t6e &ormation o& 3riton m8st 6a'e all been &illed in and o'ered o'er b7 some
earl7 )lobal res8r&ain) e'ent$ 3riton orbits Nept8ne in t6e opposite diretion to Nept8neAs
1
-obert /oddard, t6e in'entor o& t6e modern liK8id-&8eled roket, en'isioned a time (6en eCpeditions to t6e stars (o8ld be
o8t&itted on and la8n6ed &rom 3riton$ 36is (as in a 19"7 a&tert6o8)6t to a 191; 6and(ritten man8sript alled B36e .ast
5i)ration$B +onsidered m86 too darin) &or p8bliation, it (as deposited in a &riendAs sa&e$ 36e o'er pa)e bears a (arnin):
B36eQseR notes s6o8ld be read t6oro8)6l7 onl7 b7 an optimist$B
7"
rotationG8nlike t6e sit8ation (it6 t6e Eart6 and its moon, and (it6 most o& t6e lar)e moons in
t6e Solar S7stem$ I& 3riton 6ad &ormed o8t o& t6e same spinnin) disk t6at made Nept8ne, it o8)6t
to be )oin) aro8nd Nept8ne in t6e same diretion t6at Nept8ne rotates$ So 3riton (as not made
&rom t6e ori)inal loal neb8la aro8nd Nept8ne, b8t arose some(6ere elseGper6aps &ar be7ond
0l8toGand (as b7 6ane )ra'itationall7 apt8red (6en it passed too lose to Nept8ne$ 36is
e'ent s6o8ld 6a'e raised enormo8s solid-bod7 tides in 3riton, meltin) t6e s8r&ae and s(eepin)
a(a7 all t6e past topo)rap67$
In some plaes t6e s8r&ae is as bri)6t and (6ite as &res6l7 &allen ,ntarti sno(s =and ma7
o&&er a skiin) eCperiene 8nri'aled in all t6e Solar S7stem<$ Else(6ere t6ereAs a tint, ran)in)
&rom pink to bro(n$ 2ne possible eCplanation: %res6l7 &allen sno(s o& nitro)en, met6ane, and
ot6er 67droarbons are irradiated b7 solar 8ltra'iolet li)6t and b7 eletrons trapped in t6e
ma)neti &ield o& Nept8ne, t6ro8)6 (6i6 3riton plo(s$ *e kno( t6at s86 irradiation (ill
on'ert t6e sno(s =like t6e orrespondin) )ases< to ompleC, dark, reddis6 or)ani sediments,
ie t6olinsGnot6in) ali'e, b8t 6ere too omposed o& some o& t6e mole8les impliated in t6e
ori)in o& li&e on Eart6 &o8r billion 7ears a)o$
In loal (inter, la7ers o& ie and sno( b8ild 8p on t6e s8r&ae$ =28r (inters, meri&8ll7, are
onl7 4 perent as lon)$< 36ro8)6 t6e sprin), t6e7 are slo(l7 trans&ormed, more and more reddis6
or)ani mole8les a8m8latin)$ B7 s8mmertime, t6e ie and sno( 6a'e e'aporated? t6e )ases
so released mi)rate 6al&(a7 aross t6e planet to t6e (inter 6emisp6ere and t6ere o'er t6e
s8r&ae (it6 ie and sno( a)ain$ B8t t6e reddis6 or)ani mole8les do not 'aporiIe and are not
transportedGa la) deposit, t6e7 are neCt (inter o'ered o'er b7 ne( sno(s, (6i6 are in t8rn
irradiated, and b7 t6e &ollo(in) s8mmer t6e a8m8lation is t6iker$ ,s time )oes on, s8bstantial
amo8nts o& or)ani matter are b8ilt 8p on t6e s8r&ae o& 3riton, (6i6 ma7 ao8nt &or its
deliate olor markin)s$
36e streaks be)in in small, dark so8re re)ions, per6aps (6en t6e (armt6 o& sprin) and
s8mmer 6eats s8bs8r&ae 'olatile sno(s$ ,s t6e7 'aporiIe, )as omes )8s6in) o8t as in a )e7ser,
blo(in) o&& less-'olatile s8r&ae sno(s and dark or)anis$ 0re'ailin) lo(-speed (inds arr7
a(a7 t6e dark or)anis, (6i6 slo(l7 sediment o8t o& t6e t6in air, are deposited on t6e )ro8nd,
and )enerate t6e appearane o& t6e streaks$ 36is, at least, is one reonstr8tion o& reent
3ritonian 6istor7$
3riton ma7 6a'e lar)e, seasonal polar aps o& smoot6 nitro)en ie 8nderl7in) la7ers o& dark
or)ani materials$ Nitro)en sno(s seem reentl7 to 6a'e &allen at t6e eK8ator$ Sno(&alls,
)e7sers, (indblo(n or)ani d8st, and 6i)6-altit8de 6aIes (ere entirel7 8neCpeted on a (orld
(it6 so t6in an atmosp6ere$
*67 is t6e air so t6inD Bea8se 3riton is so &ar &rom t6e S8n$ *ere 7o8 some6o( to pik
t6is (orld 8p and mo'e it into orbit aro8nd Sat8rn, t6e nitro)en and met6ane ies (o8ld K8ikl7
e'aporate, a m86 denser atmosp6ere o& )aseo8s nitro)en and met6ane (o8ld &orm, and
radiation (o8ld )enerate an opaK8e t6olin 6aIe$ It (o8ld beome a (orld 'er7 like 3itan$
+on'ersel7, i& 7o8 mo'ed 3itan into orbit abo8t Nept8ne, almost all its atmosp6ere (o8ld &reeIe
o8t as sno(s and ies, t6e t6olin (o8ld &all o8t and not be replaed, t6e air (o8ld lear, and t6e
s8r&ae (o8ld beome 'isible in ordinar7 li)6t$ It (o8ld beome a (orld 'er7 like 3riton$
73
36ese t(o (orlds are not idential$ 36e interior o& 3itan seems to ontain m86 more ie
t6an t6at o& 3riton, and m86 less rok$ 3itanAs diameter is almost t(ie t6at o& 3riton$ Still, i&
plaed at t6e same distane &rom t6e S8n t6e7 (o8ld look like sisters$ ,lan Stern o& t6e
So8t6(est -esear6 Instit8te s8))ests t6at t6e7 are t(o members o& a 'ast olletion o& small
(orlds ri6 in nitro)en and met6ane t6at &ormed in t6e earl7 Solar S7stem$ 0l8to, 7et to be
'isited b7 a spaera&t, appears to be anot6er member o& t6is )ro8p$ 5an7 more ma7 a(ait
diso'er7 be7ond 0l8to$ 36e t6in atmosp6eres and i7 s8r&aes o& all t6ese (orlds are bein)
irradiatedGb7 osmi ra7s, i& not6in) else and nitro)enGri6 or)ani ompo8nds are bein)
&ormed$ It looks as i& t6e st8&& o& li&e is sittin) not H8st on 3itan, b8t t6ro8)6o8t t6e old, diml7
lit o8ter rea6es o& o8r planetar7 s7stem$
,not6er lass o& small obHets 6as reentl7 been diso'ered, (6ose orbits take t6emGat
least part o& t6e timeGbe7ond Nept8ne and 0l8to$ Sometimes alled minor planets or asteroids,
t6e7 are more likel7 to be inati'e omets =(it6 no tails, o& o8rse? so &ar &rom t6e S8n, t6eir
ies annot readil7 'aporiIe<$ B8t t6e7 are m86 bi))er t6an t6e r8n-o&-t6e-mill omets (e
kno($ 36e7 ma7 be t6e 'an)8ard o& a 'ast arra7 o& small (orlds t6at eCtends &rom t6e orbit o&
0l8to 6al&(a7 to t6e nearest star$ 36e innermost pro'ine o& t6e 2ort +omet +lo8d, o& (6i6
t6ese ne( obHets ma7 be members, is alled t6e E8iper Belt, a&ter m7 mentor /erard E8iper,
(6o &irst s8))ested t6at it s6o8ld eCist$ S6ort-period ometsGlike 4alle7AsGarise in t6e E8iper
Belt, respond to )ra'itational t8)s, s(eep into t6e inner part o& t6e Solar S7stem, )ro( t6eir
tails, and )rae o8r skies$
Bak in t6e late nineteent6 ent8r7, t6ese b8ildin) bloks o& (orldsGt6en mere 67pot6eses
G(ere alled Bplanetesimals$B 36e &la'or o& t6e (ord is, I s8ppose, somet6in) like t6at o&
Bin&initesimalsB: :o8 need an in&inite n8mber o& t6em to make an7t6in)$ ItAs not K8ite "(a"
eCtreme (it6 planetesimals, alt6o8)6 a 'er7 lar)e n8mber o& t6em (o8ld be reK8ired to make a
planet$ %or eCample, trillions o& bodies ea6 a kilometer in siIe (o8ld be needed to oalese to
make a planet (it6 t6e mass o& t6e Eart6$ 2ne t6ere (ere m86 lar)er n8mbers o& (orldlets in
t6e planetar7 part o& t6e Solar S7stem$ 5ost o& t6em are no( )oneGeHeted into interstellar
spae, &allen into t6e S8n, or sari&ied in t6e )reat enterprise o& b8ildin) moons and planets$ B8t
o8t be7ond Nept8ne and 0l8to t6e disards, t6e le&to'ers t6at (ere ne'er a))re)ated into (orlds,
ma7 be (aitin)Ga &e( lar)is6 ones in t6e 100-kilometer ran)e, and st8pe&7in) n8mbers o&
kilometer-siIed and smaller bodies pepperin) t6e o8ter Solar S7stem all t6e (a7 o8t to t6e 2ort
+lo8d$
In t6is sense t6ere are planets be7ond Nept8ne and 0l8toGb8t t6e7 are not nearl7 as bi) as
t6e >o'ian planets, or e'en 0l8to$ .ar)er (orlds ma7, &or all (e kno(, also be 6idin) in t6e dark
be7ond 0l8to, (orlds t6at an properl7 be alled planets$ 36e &art6er a(a7 t6e7 are, t6e less
likel7 it is t6at (e (o8ld 6a'e deteted t6em$ 36e7 annot lie H8st be7ond Nept8ne, t6o8)6? t6eir
)ra'itational t8)s (o8ld 6a'e pereptibl7 altered t6e orbits o& Nept8ne and 0l8to, and t6e
Pioneer 10 and 11 and Vo$ager 1 and " spaera&t$
36e ne(l7 diso'ered ometar7 bodies =(it6 names like 199"TB and 1993%*< are not
planets in t6is sense$ I& o8r detetion t6res6old 6as H8st enompassed t6em, man7 more o& t6em
probabl7 remain to be diso'ered in t6e o8ter Solar S7stemGso &ar a(a7 t6at t6e7Are 6ard to see
74
&rom Eart6, so distant t6at itAs a lon) Ho8rne7 to )et to t6em$ B8t small, K8ik s6ips to 0l8to and
be7ond are (it6in o8r abilit7$ It (o8ld make )ood sense to dispat6 one b7 0l8to and its moon
+6aron, and t6en, i& (e an, to make a lose pass b7 one o& t6e deniIens o& t6e E8iper +omet
Belt$
36e rok7 Eart6like ores o& 1ran8s and Nept8ne seem to 6a'e areted &irst, and t6en
)ra'itationall7 attrated massi'e amo8nts o& 67dro)en and 6eli8m )as &rom t6e anient neb8la
o8t o& (6i6 t6e planets &ormed$ 2ri)inall7, t6e7 li'ed in a 6ailstorm$ 36eir )ra'ities (ere H8st
s8&&iient to eHet i7 (orldlets, (6en t6e7 ame too lose, &ar o8t be7ond t6e realm o& t6e
planets, to pop8late t6e 2ort +omet +lo8d$ >8piter and Sat8rn beame )as )iants b7 t6e same
proess$ B8t t6eir )ra'ities (ere too stron) to pop8late t6e 2ort +lo8d: Ie (orlds t6at ame
lose to t6em (ere )ra'itationall7 pit6ed o8t o& t6e Solar S7stem entirel7Gdestined to (ander
&ore'er in t6e )reat dark bet(een t6e stars$
So t6e lo'el7 omets t6at on oasion ro8se 8s 68mans to (onder and to a(e, t6at rater t6e
s8r&aes o& inner planets and o8ter moons, and t6at no( and t6en endan)er li&e on Eart6 (o8ld
be 8nkno(n and 8nt6reatenin) 6ad 1ran8s and Nept8ne not )ro(n to be )iant (orlds &o8r and a
6al& billion 7ears a)o$
THIS IS THE PLACE &or a brie& interl8de on planets &ar be7ond Nept8ne and 0l8to, planets o&
ot6er stars$
5an7 nearb7 stars are s8rro8nded b7 t6in disks o& orbitin) )as and d8st, o&ten eCtendin) to
68ndreds o& astronomial 8nits =,1< &rom t6e loal star =t6e o8termost planets, Nept8ne and
0l8to, are abo8t 40 ,1 &rom o8r S8n<$ :o8n)er S8n-like stars are m86 more likel7 to 6a'e
disks t6an older ones$ In some ases, t6ereAs a 6ole in t6e enter o& t6e disk as in a p6ono)rap6
reord$ 36e 6ole eCtends o8t &rom t6e star to per6aps 30 or 40 ,1$ 36is is tr8e, &or eCample, &or
t6e disks s8rro8ndin) t6e stars #e)a and Epsilon Eridam$ 36e 6ole in t6e disk s8rro8ndin) Beta
0itoris eCtends to onl7 15 ,1 &rom t6e star$ 36ere is a real possibilit7 t6at t6ese inner, d8st-&ree
Iones 6a'e been leaned 8p b7 planets t6at reentl7 &ormed t6ere$ Indeed, t6is s(eepin)-o8t
proess is predited &or t6e earl7 6istor7 o& o8r planetar7 s7stem$ ,s obser'ations impro'e,
per6aps (e (ill see telltale details in t6e on&i)8ration o& d8st and d8st-&ree Iones t6at (ill
indiate t6e presene o& planets too small and dark to be seen diretl7$ Spetrosopi data s8))est
t6at t6ese disks are 68rnin) and t6at matter is &allin) in on t6e entral starsGper6aps &rom
omets &ormed in t6e disk, de&leted b7 t6e 8nseen planets, and e'aporatin) as t6e7 approa6 too
lose to t6e loal s8n$
Bea8se planets are small and s6ine b7 re&leted li)6t, t6e7 tend to be (as6ed o8t in t6e
)lare o& t6e loal s8n$ Ne'ert6eless, man7 e&&orts are no( 8nder (a7 to &ind &8ll7 &ormed planets
aro8nd nearb7 starsGb7 detetin) a &aint brie& dimmin) o& starli)6t as a dark planet interposes
itsel& bet(een t6e star and t6e obser'er on Eart6? or b7 sensin) a &aint (obble in t6e motion o&
t6e star as itAs t8))ed &irst one (a7 and t6en anot6er b7 an ot6er(ise in'isible orbitin)
ompanion$ Spaeborne te6niK8es (ill be m86 more sensiti'e$ , >o'ian planet )oin) aro8nd a
nearb7 star is abo8t a billion times &ainter t6an its s8n? ne'ert6eless, a ne( )eneration o& )ro8nd-
75
based telesopes t6at an ompensate &or t6e t(inklin) in t6e Eart6As atmosp6ere ma7 soon be
able to detet s86 planets in onl7 a &e( 6o8rsA obser'in) time$ , terrestrial planet o& a
nei)6borin) star is a 68ndred times &ainter still? b8t it no( seems t6at omparati'el7 ineCpensi'e
spaera&t, abo'e t6e Eart6As atmosp6ere, mi)6t be able to detet ot6er Eart6s$ None o& t6ese
sear6es 6as s8eeded 7et, b8t (e are learl7 on t6e 'er)e o& bein) able to detet at least
>8piter-siIed planets aro8nd t6e nearest starsGi& t6ere are an7 to be &o8nd$
, most important and serendipito8s reent diso'er7 is o& a bona &ide planetar7 s7stem
aro8nd an 8nlikel7 star, some 1,300 li)6t-7ears a(a7, &o8nd b7 a most 8neCpeted te6niK8e:
36e p8lsar desi)nated B1"57S1" is a rapidl7 rotatin) ne8tron star, an 8nbelie'abl7 dense s8n, t6e
remnant o& a massi'e star t6at s8&&ered a s8perno'a eCplosion$ It spins, at a rate meas8red to
impressi'e preision, one e'er7 0$006"1;53193;;1;7 seonds$ 36is p8lsar is p8s6in) 10,000
rpm$
+6ar)ed partiles trapped in its intense ma)neti &ield )enerate radio (a'es t6at are ast
aross t6e Eart6, abo8t 160 &likers a seond$ Small b8t disernible 6an)es in t6e &las6 rate (ere
tentati'el7 interpreted b7 ,leCander *olsIIan, no( at 0enns7l'ania State 1ni'ersit7, in 1991G
as a tin7 re&leC motion o& t6e p8lsar in response to t6e presene o& planets$ In 1994 t6e predited
m8t8al )ra'itational interations o& t6ese planets (ere on&irmed b7 *olsIIan &rom a st8d7 o&
timin) resid8als at t6e miroseond le'el o'er t6e inter'enin) 7ears$ 36e e'idene t6at t6ese are
tr8l7 ne( planets and not starK8akes on t6e ne8tron star s8r&ae =or somet6in)< is no(
o'er(6elmin)Gor, as *olsIIan p8t it, Birre&8tableB? a ne( solar s7stem is B8nambi)8o8sl7
identi&ied$B 1nlike all t6e ot6er te6niK8es, t6e p8lsar timin) met6od makes lose-in terrestrial
planets omparati'el7 eas7 and more distant >o'ian planets omparati'el7 di&&i8lt to detet$
0lanet +, some "$; times more massi'e t6an t6e Eart6, orbits t6e p8lsar e'er7 9; da7s at a
distane o& 0$47 astronomial 8nits
1
=,1<? 0lanet B, (it6 abo8t 3$4 Eart6 masses, 6as a 67-
Eart6-da7 7ear at 0$36 ,1$ , smaller (orld, 0lanet ,, still loser to t6e star, (it6 abo8t 0$015
Eart6 masses, is at 0$19 ,1$ +r8del7 speakin), 0lanet B is ro8)6l7 at t6e distane o& 5er8r7
&rom o8r S8n? 0lanet + is mid(a7 bet(een t6e distanes o& 5er8r7 and #en8s? and interior to
bot6 o& t6em is 0lanet ,, ro8)6l7 t6e mass o& t6e 5oon at abo8t 6al& 5er8r7As distane &rom
o8r S8n$ *6et6er t6ese planets are t6e remnants o& an earlier planetar7 s7stem t6at some6o(
s8r'i'ed t6e s8perno'a eCplosion t6at prod8ed t6e p8lsar, or (6et6er t6e7 &ormed &rom t6e
res8ltin) ir8mstellar aretion disk s8bseK8ent to t6e s8perno'a eCplosion, (e do not kno($
B8t in eit6er ase, (e 6a'e no( learned t6at t6ere are ot6er Eart6s$
36e ener)7 p8t o8t b7 B1"57S1" is abo8t 4$7 times t6at o& )8n$ B8t, 8nlike t6e S8n, most
o& t6is is not in 'isible li)6t, b8t in a &iere 68rriane o& eletriall7 6ar)ed partiles$ S8ppose
t6at t6ese partiles impin)e on t6e planets and 6eat t6em$ 36en, e'en a planet at 1 ,1 (o8ld
6a'e a s8r&ae aro8nd ";0 +elsi8s de)rees abo'e t6e normal boilin) point o& (ater, )reater t6an
t6e temperat8re o& #en8s$
36ese dark and broilin) planets do not seem 6ospitable &or li&e$ B8t t6ere ma7 be ot6ers,
&art6er &rom B1"57S1", t6at are$ =4ints o& at least one ooler, o8ter (orld in t6e B1"57S1"
1
36e Eart6, b7 de&inition, is 1 ,1 &rom its star, t6e S8n$
76
s7stem eCist$< 2& o8rse, (e donAt e'en kno( t6at s86 (orlds (o8ld retain t6eir atmosp6eres?
per6aps an7 atmosp6eres (ere stripped a(a7 in t6e s8perno'a eCplosion, i& t6e7 date bak t6at
&ar$ B8t (e do seem to be detetin) a reo)niIable planetar7 s7stem$ 5an7 more are likel7 to
beome kno(n in omin) deades, aro8nd ordinar7 S8n-like stars as (ell as (6ite d(ar&s,
p8lsars, and ot6er end states o& stellar e'ol8tion$
E'ent8all7, (e (ill 6a'e a list o& planetar7 s7stemsGea6 per6aps (it6 terrestrials and
>o'ians and ma7be ne( lasses o& planets$ *e (ill eCamine t6ese (orlds, spetrosopiall7 and
in ot6er (a7s$ *e (ill be sear6in) &or ne( Eart6s and ot6er li&e$
ON NONE OF THE WORLDS In t6e o8ter Solar S7stem did Vo$ager &ind si)ns o& li&e, m86 less
intelli)ene$ 36ere (as or)ani 5atter )aloreGt6e st8&& o& li&e, t6e premonitions o& li&e, per6aps
b8t as &ar as (e o8ld see, no li&e$ 36ere (as no oC7)en in t6eir atmosp6eres, and no )ases
pro&o8ndl7 o8t o& 6emial eK8ilibri8m, as met6ane is in t6e Eart6As oC7)en$ 5an7 o& t6e
(orlds (ere painted (it6 s8btle olors, b8t none (it6 s86 distinti'e, s6arp absorption &eat8res
as 6lorop67ll pro'ides o'er m86 o& t6e Eart6As s8r&ae$ 2n 'er7 &e( (orlds (as Vo$ager able
to resol'e details as small as a kilometer aross$ B7 t6is standard, it (o8ld not 6a'e deteted
e'en o8r o(n te6nial i'iliIation 6ad it been transplanted to t6e o8ter Solar S7stem$ B8t &or
(6at itAs (ort6, (e &o8nd no re)8lar patternin), no )eometriIation, no passion &or small irles,
trian)les, sK8ares, or retan)les$ 36ere (ere no onstellations o& stead7 points o& li)6t on t6e
ni)6t 6emisp6eres$ 36ere (ere no si)ns o& a te6nial i'iliIation re(orkin) t6e s8r&ae o& an7
o& t6ese (orlds$
36e >o'ian planets are proli&i broadasters o& radio (a'esG)enerated in part b7 t6e
ab8ndant trapped and beamed 6ar)ed partiles in t6eir ma)neti &ields, in part b7 li)6tnin), and
in part b7 t6eir 6ot interiors$ B8t none o& t6is emission 6as t6e 6arater o& intelli)ent li&eGor so
it seems to t6e eCperts in t6e &ield$
2& o8rse o8r t6inkin) ma7 be too narro($ *e ma7 be missin) somet6in)$ %or eCample,
t6ere is a little arbon dioCide in t6e atmosp6ere o& 3itan, (6i6 p8ts its nitro)enNmet6ane
atmosp6ere o8t o& 6emial eK8ilibri8m$ I t6ink t6e +2
"
is pro'ided b7 t6e stead7 pitter-patter
o& omets &allin) into 3itanAs atmosp6ereGb8t ma7be not$ 5a7be t6ereAs somet6in) on t6e
s8r&ae 8nao8ntabl7 )eneratin) +2
"
in t6e &ae o& all t6at met6ane$
36e s8r&aes o& 5iranda and 3riton are 8nlike an7t6in) else (e kno($ 36ere are 'ast
6e'ron-s6aped land&orms and rissrossin) strai)6t lines t6at e'en sober planetar7 )eolo)ists
one mis6ie'o8sl7 desribed as B6i)6(a7s$B *e t6ink (e =barel7< 8nderstand t6ese land&orms
in terms o& &a8lts and ollisions, b8t o& o8rse (e mi)6t be (ron)$
36e s8r&ae stains o& or)ani matterGsometimes, as on 3riton, deliatel7 68edGare
attrib8ted to 6ar)ed partiles prod8in) 6emial reations in simple 67droarbon ies,
)eneratin) more ompleC or)ani materials, and all t6is 6a'in) not6in) to do (it6 t6e
intermediation o& li&e$ B8t o& o8rse (e mi)6t be (ron)$
36e ompleC pattern o& radio stati, b8rsts, and (6istles t6at (e reei'e &rom all &o8r >o'ian
planets seems, in a )eneral (a7, eCpliable b7 plasma p67sis and t6ermal emission$ =586 o&
t6e detail is not 7et (ell 8nderstood$< B8t o& o8rse (e mi)6t be (ron)$
77
*e 6a'e &o8nd not6in) on doIens o& (orlds so lear and strikin) as t6e si)ns o& li&e &o8nd b7
t6e %alileo spaera&t in its passa)es b7 t6e Eart6$ .i&e is a 67pot6esis o& last resort$ :o8 in'oke
it onl7 (6en t6ereAs no ot6er (a7 to eCplain (6at 7o8 see$ I& I 6ad to H8d)e, I (o8ld sa7 t6at
t6ereAs no li&e on an7 o& t6e (orlds (eA'e st8died, eCept o& o8rse o8r o(n$ B8t I mi)6t be
(ron), and, ri)6t or (ron), m7 H8d)ment is neessaril7 on&ined to t6is Solar S7stem$ 0er6aps
on some ne( mission (eAll &ind somet6in) di&&erent, somet6in) strikin), somet6in) (6oll7
ineCpliable (it6 t6e ordinar7 tools o& planetar7 sieneGand trem8lo8sl7, a8tio8sl7, (e (ill
in6 to(ard a biolo)ial eCplanation$ 4o(e'er, &or no( not6in) reK8ires t6at (e )o do(n s86 a
pat6$ So &ar, t6e onl7 li&e in t6e Solar S7stem is t6at (6i6 omes &rom Eart6$ In t6e 1ran8s and
Nept8ne s7stems, t6e onl7 si)n o& li&e 6as been Vo$ager itsel&$
,s (e identi&7 t6e planets o& ot6er stars, as (e &ind ot6er (orlds o& ro8)6l7 t6e siIe and
mass o& t6e Eart6, (e (ill sr8tiniIe t6em &or li&e$ , dense oC7)en atmosp6ere ma7 be detetable
e'en on a (orld (eA'e ne'er ima)ed$ ,s &or t6e Eart6, t6at ma7 b7 itsel& be a si)n o& li&e$ ,n
oC7)en atmosp6ere (it6 appreiable K8antities o& met6ane (o8ld almost ertainl7 be a si)n o&
li&e, as (o8ld mod8lated radio emission$ Someda7, &rom obser'ations o& o8r planetar7 s7stem or
anot6er, t6e ne(s o& li&e else(6ere ma7 be anno8ned o'er t6e mornin) o&&ee$
THE VOYAGER SPACECRAFT are bo8nd &or t6e stars$ 36e7 are on esape traHetories &rom t6e Solar
S7stem, barrelin) alon) at almost a million miles a da7$ 36e )ra'itational &ields o& >8piter,
Sat8rn, 1ran8s, and Nept8ne 6a'e &l8n) t6em at s86 6i)6 speeds t6at t6e7 6a'e broken t6e
bonds t6at one tied t6em to t6e S8n$
4a'e t6e7 le&t t6e Solar S7stem 7etD 36e ans(er depends 'er7 m86 on 6o( 7o8 de&ine t6e
bo8ndar7 o& t6e S8nAs realm$ I& itAs t6e orbit o& t6e o8termost )ood-siIed planet, t6en t6e Vo$ager
spaera&t are alread7 lon) )one? t6ere are probabl7 no 8ndiso'ered Nept8nes$ I& 7o8 mean t6e
o8termost planet, it ma7 be t6at t6ere are ot6erGper6aps 3riton-likeGplanets &ar be7ond
Nept8ne and 0l8to? i& so, Vo$ager 1 and Vo$ager 2 are still (it6in t6e Solar S7stem$ I& 7o8 de&ine
t6e o8ter limits o& t6e Solar S7stem as t6e 6eliopa8seG(6ere t6e interplanetar7 partiles and
ma)neti &ields are replaed b7 t6eir interstellar o8nterpartsGt6en neit6er Vo$ager 6as 7et le&t
t6e Solar S7stem, alt6o8)6 t6e7 ma7 do so in t6e neCt &e( deades$
1
B8t i& 7o8r de&inition o& t6e
ed)e o& t6e Solar S7stem is t6e distane at (6i6 o8r star an no lon)er 6old (orlds in orbit
abo8t it, t6en t6e Vo$agers (ill not lea'e t6e Solar S7stem &or 68ndreds o& ent8ries$
*eakl7 )rasped b7 t6e S8nAs )ra'it7, in e'er7 diretion in t6e sk7, is t6at immense 6orde o&
a trillion omets or more, t6e port +lo8d$ 36e t(o spaera&t (ill &inis6 t6eir passa)e t6ro8)6
1
-adio si)nals t6at bot6 Vo$agers deteted in 199" are t6o8)6t to arise &rom t6e ollision o& po(er&8l )8sts o& solar (ind (it6 t6e
t6in )as t6at lies bet(een t6e stars$ %rom t6e immense $po(er o& t6e si)nal =o'er 10 trillion (atts<, t6e distane to t6e 6eliopa8se an
be estimated: abo8t 100 times t6e Eart6As distane &rom t6e S8n$ ,t t6e speed itAs lea'in) t6e Solar S7stem, Vo$ager 1 mi)6t piere
t6e 6eliopa8se and enter interstellar spae aro8nd t6e 7ear "010$ I& its radioati'e po(er so8re is still (orkin), ne(s o& t6e rossin)
(ill be radioed bak to t6e sta7-at-6omes on Eart6$ 36e ener)7 released b7 t6e ollision o& t6is s6ok (a'e (it6 t6e 6eliopa8se
makes it t6e most po(er&8l so8re o& radio emission in t6e Solar S7stem$ It makes 7o8 (onder (6et6er e'en stron)er s6oks in
ot6er planetar7 s7stems mi)6t 6e detetable b7 o8r radio telesope$
7;
t6e 2ort lo8d in anot6er "0,000 7ears or so$ 36en, at last, ompletin) t6eir lon) )ood-b7e to
t6e Solar S7stem, broken &ree o& t6e )ra'itational s6akles t6at one bo8nd t6em to t6e S8n, t6e
Vo$agers (ill make &or t6e open sea o& interstellar spae$ onl7 t6en (ill 06ase 3(o o& t6eir
mission be)in$
36eir radio transmitters lon) dead, t6e spaera&t (ill (ander &or a)es in t6e alm, old
interstellar blaknessG(6ere t6ere is almost not6in) to erode t6em$ 2ne o8t o& t6e Solar
S7stem, t6e7 (ill remain intat &or a billion 7ears or more, as t6e7 ir8mna'i)ate t6e enter o&
t6e 5ilk7 *a7 )alaC7$
*e do not kno( (6et6er t6ere are ot6er spae-&arin) i'iliIations in t6e 5ilk7 *a7$ I& t6e7
do eCist, (e do not kno( 6o( ab8ndant t6e7 are, m86 less (6ere t6e7 are$ B8t t6ere is at least
a 6ane t6at sometime in t6e remote &8t8re one o& t6e Vo$agers (ill be interepted and
eCamined b7 an alien ra&t$
,ordin)l7, as ea6 Vo$ager le&t Eart6 &or t6e planets and t6e stars, it arried (it6 it a
)olden p6ono)rap6 reord enased in a )olden, mirrored Haket ontainin), amon) ot6er t6in)s?
)reetin)s in 59 68man lan)8a)es and one (6ale lan)8a)e? a 1"-min8te so8nd essa7 inl8din) a
kiss, a bab7As r7, and an EE/ reord o& t6e meditations o& a 7o8n) (oman in lo'e? 116 enoded
pit8res, on o8r siene, o8r i'iliIation, and o8rsel'es? and 90 min8tes o& t6e Eart6As )reatest
6itsGEastern and *estern, lassial and &olk, inl8din) a Na'aHo ni)6t 6ant, a >apanese
(aku(a7(i piee, a 07)m7 )irlAs initiation son), a 0er8'ian (eddin) son), a 3,000-7ear-old
omposition &or t6e 7(6in alled B%lo(in) Streams,B Ba6, Beet6o'en, 5oIart, Stra'insk7, .o8is
,rmstron), Blind *illie >o6nson, and +68k Berr7As B>o6nn7 B$ /oode$B
Spae is nearl7 empt7$ 36ere is 'irt8all7 no 6ane t6at one o& t6e Vo$agers (ill e'er enter
anot6er solar s7stemGand t6is is tr8e e'en i& e'er7 star in t6e sk7 is aompanied b7 planets$
36e instr8tions on t6e reord Hakets, (ritten in (6at (e belie'e to be readil7 ompre6ensible
sienti&i 6iero)l7p6is, an be read, and t6e ontents o& t6e reords 8nderstood, onl7 i& alien
bein)s, some(6ere in t6e remote &8t8re, &ind Vo$ager in t6e dept6s o& interstellar spae$ Sine
bot6 Vo$agers (ill irle t6e enter o& t6e 5ilk7 *a7 /alaC7 essentiall7 &ore'er, t6ere is plent7
o& time &or t6e reords to be &o8ndGi& t6ereAs an7one o8t t6ere to do t6e &indin)$
*e annot kno( 6o( m86 o& t6e reords t6e7 (o8ld 8nderstand$ S8rel7 t6e )reetin)s (ill
be inompre6ensible, b8t t6eir intent ma7 not be$ =*e t6o8)6t it (o8ld be impolite not to sa7
6ello$< 36e 67pot6etial aliens are bo8nd to be 'er7 di&&erent &rom 8sGindependentl7 e'ol'ed on
anot6er (orld$ ,re (e reall7 s8re t6e7 o8ld 8nderstand an7t6in) at all o& o8r messa)eD E'er7
time I &eel t6ese onerns stirrin), t6o8)6, I reass8re m7sel&$ *6ate'er t6e inompre6ensibilities
o& t6e Vo$ager reord, an7 alien s6ip t6at &inds it (ill 6a'e anot6er standard b7 (6i6 to H8d)e
8s$ Ea6 Vo$ager is itsel& a messa)e$ In t6eir eCplorator7 intent, in t6e lo&t7 ambition o& t6eir
obHeti'es, in t6eir 8tter lak o& intent to do 6arm, and in t6e brilliane o& t6eir desi)n and
per&ormane, t6ese robots speak eloK8entl7 &or 8s$
B8t bein) m86 more ad'aned sientists and en)ineers t6an (eGot6er(ise t6e7 (o8ld
ne'er be able to &ind and retrie'e t6e small, silent spaera&t in interstellar spaeGper6aps t6e
aliens (o8ld 6a'e no di&&i8lt7 8nderstandin) (6at is enoded on t6ese )olden reords$ 0er6aps
t6e7 (o8ld reo)niIe t6e tentati'eness o& o8r soiet7, t6e mismat6 bet(een o8r te6nolo)7 and
79
o8r (isdom$ 4a'e (e destro7ed o8rsel'es sine la8n6in) Vo$ager9 t6e7 mi)6t (onder, or 6a'e
(e )one on to )reater t6in)sD
2r per6aps t6e reords (ill ne'er be interepted$ 0er6aps no one in &i'e billion 7ears (ill
e'er ome 8pon t6em$ %i'e billion 7ears is a lon) time$ In &i'e billion 7ears, all 68mans (ill
6a'e beome eCtint or e'ol'ed into ot6er bein)s, none o& o8r arti&ats (ill 6a'e s8r'i'ed on
Eart6, t6e ontinents (ill 6a'e beome 8nreo)niIabl7 altered or destro7ed, and t6e e'ol8tion
o& t6e S8n (ill 6a'e b8rned t6e Eart6 to a risp or red8ed it to a (6irl o& atoms$
%ar &rom 6ome, 8nto86ed b7 t6ese remote e'ents, t6e Vo$agers, bearin) t6e memories o& a (orld
t6at is no more, (ill &l7 on$
C H A P T E R 10
S,+-E! B.,+E
!eep sk7 is, o& all 'is8al impressions, t6e nearest akin to a &eelin)$

@SAM8E& /A,&O- #O&E-!.%E9 0O/E>OODS (1805)
T6e bl8e o& a lo8dless 5a7 mornin), or t6e reds and oran)es o& a s8nset at sea, 6a'e ro8sed
68mans to (onder, to poetr7, and to siene$ No matter (6ere on Eart6 (e li'e, no matter (6at
o8r lan)8a)e, 8stoms, or politis, (e s6are a sk7 in ommon$ 5ost o& 8s expect t6at aI8re
bl8e and (o8ld, &or )ood reason, be st8nned to (ake 8p one s8nrise to &ind a lo8dless sk7 t6at
(as blak or 7ello( or )reen$ =In6abitants o& .os ,n)eles and 5eCio +it7 6a'e )ro(n
a8stomed to bro(n skies, and t6ose o& .ondon and Seattle to )ra7 onesGb8t e'en t6e7 still
onsider bl8e t6e planetar7 norm$<
,nd 7et t6ere are (orlds (it6 blak or 7ello( skies, and ma7be e'en )reen$ 36e olor o&
t6e sk7 6arateriIes t6e (orld$ 0lop me do(n on an7 planet in t6e Solar S7stem? (it6o8t
sensin) t6e )ra'it7, (it6o8t )limpsin) t6e )ro8nd, let me take a K8ik look at t6e S8n and sk7,
and I an, I t6ink, prett7 (ell tell 7o8 (6ere I am$ 36at &amiliar s6ade o& bl8e, interr8pted 6ere
and t6ere b7 &lee7 (6ite lo8ds, is a si)nat8re o& o8r (orld$ 36e %ren6 6a'e an eCpression,
a7re-;leuB9 (6i6 translates ro8)6l7 as B/ood 6ea'ensFB
1
.iterall7, it means Bsared bl8eFB
1
.ike B)os6-darnedB and B)eeI,B t6is p6rase (as ori)inall7 a e8p6emism &or t6ose (6o onsidered Sacre-Dieu!, BSared /odF,B
;0
Indeed$ I& t6ere e'er is a tr8e &la) o& Eart6, t6is s6o8ld be its olor$
Birds &l7 t6ro8)6 it, lo8ds are s8spended in it, 68mans admire and ro8tinel7 tra'erse it,
li)6t &rom t6e S8n and stars &l8tters t6ro8)6 it$ B8t (6at is itD *6at is it made o&D *6ere does it
endD 4o( m86 o& it is t6ereD *6ere does all t6at bl8e ome &romD I& itAs a ommonplae &or all
68mans, i& it t7pi&ies o8r (orld, s8rel7 (e s6o8ld kno( somet6in) abo8t it$ *6at is t6e sk7D
In ,8)8st 1957, &or t6e &irst time, a 68man bein) rose abo'e t6e bl8e and looked aro8ndG
(6en !a'id Simons, a retired ,ir %ore o&&ier and a p67siian, beame t6e 6i)6est 68man in
6istor7$ ,lone, 6e piloted a balloon to an altit8de o& o'er 100,000 &eet =30 kilometers< and
t6ro8)6 6is t6ik (indo(s )limpsed a di&&erent sk7$ No( a pro&essor at t6e 1ni'ersit7 o&
+ali&ornia 5edial S6ool in Ir'ine, !r$ Simons realls it (as a dark, deep p8rple o'er6ead$ 4e
6ad rea6ed t6e transition re)ion (6ere t6e bl8e o& )ro8nd le'el is bein) o'ertaken b7 t6e per&et
blak o& spae$
Sine SimonsA almost &or)otten &li)6t, people o& man7 nations 6a'e &lo(n abo'e t6e
atmosp6ere$ It is no( lear &rom repeated and diret 68man =and roboti< eCperiene t6at in
spae t6e da7time sk7 is blak$ 36e S8n s6ines bri)6tl7 on 7o8r s6ip$ 36e Eart6 belo( 7o8 is
brilliantl7 ill8minated$ B8t t6e sk7 abo'e is blak as ni)6t$
4ere is t6e memorable desription b7 :8ri /a)arin o& (6at 6e sa( on t6e &irst spae&li)6t
o& t6e 68man speies, aboard Vo"ok 1, on ,pril 1", 1961:
36e sk7 is ompletel7 blak? and a)ainst t6e bak)ro8nd o& t6is blak sk7 t6e stars appear some(6at
bri)6ter and more distint$ 36e Eart6 6as a 'er7 6arateristi, 'er7 bea8ti&8l bl8e 6alo, (6i6 is
seen (ell (6en 7o8 obser'e t6e 6oriIon$ 36ere is a smoot6 olor transition &rom tender bl8e, to bl8e,
to dark bl8e and p8rple, and t6en to t6e ompletel7 blak olor o& t6e sk7$ It is a 'er7 bea8ti&8l
transition$
+learl7, t6e da7lit sk7Gall t6at bl8eG is some6o( onneted (it6 t6e air$ B8t as 7o8 look
aross t6e break&ast table, 7o8r ompanion is not =8s8all7< bl8e? t6e olor o& t6e sk7 m8st be a
propert7 not o& a little air, b8t o& a )reat deal$ I& 7o8 look losel7 at t6e Eart6 &rom spae, 7o8 see
it s8rro8nded b7 a t6in band o& bl8e, as t6ik as t6e lo(er atmosp6ere? indeed, it is t6e lo(er
atmosp6ere$ ,t t6e top o& t6at band 7o8 an make o8t t6e bl8e sk7 &adin) into t6e blakness o&
spae$ 36is is t6e transition Ione t6at Simons (as t6e &irst to enter and /a)arin t6e &irst to
obser'e &rom abo'e$ In ro8tine spae&li)6t, 7o8 start at t6e bottom o& t6e bl8e, penetrate entirel7
t6ro8)6 it a &e( min8tes a&ter li&to&&? and t6en enter t6at bo8ndless realm (6ere a simple
breat6 o& air is impossible (it6o8t elaborate li&e-s8pport s7stems$ 48man li&e depends &or its
'er7 eCistene on t6at bl8e sk7$ *e are ri)6t to onsider it tender and sared$
*e see t6e bl8e in da7time bea8se s8nli)6t is bo8nin) o&& t6e air aro8nd and abo'e 8s$ 2n
a lo8dless ni)6t, t6e sk7 is blak bea8se t6ere is no s8&&iientl7 intense so8re o& li)6t to be
re&leted o&& t6e air$ Some6o(, t6e air pre&erentiall7 bo8nes bl8e li)6t do(n to 8s$ 4o(D
36e 'isible li)6t &rom t6e S8n omes in man7 olorsG'iolet, bl8e, )reen, 7ello(, oran)e,
redGorrespondin) to li)6t o& di&&erent (a'elen)t6s$ =, (a'elen)t6 is t6e distane &ront rest to
too stron) an oat6, t6e Seond +ommandment d8l7 onsidered, to be 8ttered alo8d$
;1
rest as t6e (a'e tra'els t6ro8)6 air or spae$< #iolet and bl8e li)6t (a'es 6a'e t6e s6ortest
(a'elen)t6s? oran)e and red t6e lon)est$ *6at (e perei'e as olor is 6o( o8r e7es and brains
read t6e (a'elen)t6s o& li)6t$ =*e 5i)6t H8st as reasonabl7 translate (a'elen)t6s o& li)6t into,
sa7, 6eard tones rat6er t6an seen olorsGb8t t6atAs not 6o( o8r senses e'ol'ed$<
*6en all t6ose rainbo( olors o& t6e spetr8m are miCed to)et6er, as in s8nli)6t, t6e7 seem
almost (6ite$ 36ese (a'es tra'el to)et6er in ei)6t min8tes aross t6e inter'enin) 93 million
miles =150 million kilometers< o& spae &rom t6e S8n to t6e Eart6$ 36e7 strike t6e atmosp6ere,
(6i6 is made mostl7 o& nitro)en and oC7)en mole8les$ Some (a'es are re&leted b7 t6e air
bak into spae$ Some are bo8ned aro8nd be&ore t6e li)6t rea6es t6e )ro8nd and t6e7 an be
deteted b7 a passin) e7eball$ =,lso, some bo8ne o&& lo8ds or t6e )ro8nd bak into spae$< 36is
bo8nin) aro8nd o& li)6t (a'es in t6e atmosp6ere is alled Bsatterin)$B
B8t not all (a'es are eK8all7 (ell sattered b7 t6e mole8les o& air$ *a'elen)t6s t6at are
m86 lon)er t6an t6e siIe o& t6e mole8les are sattered less? t6e7 spill o'er t6e mole8les,
6ardl7 in&l8ened b7 t6eir presene$ *a'elen)t6s t6at are loser to t6e siIe o& t6e mole8les are
sattered snore$ ,nd (a'es 6a'e tro8ble i)norin) obstales as bi) as t6e7 are$ =:o8 an see t6is
in (ater (a'es sattered b7 t6e pilin)s o& piers, or bat6t8b (a'es &rom a drippin) &a8et
eno8nterin) a r8bber d8k$< 36e s6orter (a'elen)t6s, t6ose t6at (e sense as 'iolet and bl8e
li)6t, are more e&&iientl7 sattered t6an t6e lon)er (a'elen)t6s, t6ose t6at (e sense as oran)e
and red li)6t$ *6en (e look 8p on a lo8dless da7 and admire t6e bl8e sk7, (e are (itnessin)
t6e pre&erential satterin) o& t6e s6ort (a'es in s8nli)6t$ 36is is alled -a7lei)6 satterin), a&ter
t6e En)lis6 p67siist (6o o&&ered t6e &irst o6erent eCplanation &or it$ +i)arette smoke is bl8e
&or H8st t6e same reason: 36e partiles t6at make it 8p are abo8t as small as t6e (a'elen)t6 o&
bl8e li)6t$
So (67 is t6e s8nset redD 36e red o& t6e s8nset is (6atAs le&t o& s8nli)6t a&ter t6e air satters
t6e bl8e a(a7$ Sine t6e atmosp6ere is a t6in s6ell o& )ra'itationall7 bo8nd )as s8rro8ndin) t6e
solid Eart6, s8nli)6t m8st pass t6ro8)6 a lon)er slant pat6 o& air at s8nset =or s8nrise< t6an at
noon$ Sine t6e 'iolet and bl8e (a'es are sattered e'en more d8rin) t6eir no(-lon)er pat6
t6ro8)6 t6e air t6an (6en t6e S8n is o'er6ead, (6at (e see (6en (e look to(ard t6e S8n is t6e
resid8eGt6e (a'es o& s8nli)6t t6at are 6ardl7 sattered a(a7 at all, espeiall7 t6e oran)es and
reds$ , bl8e sk7 makes a red s8nset$ =36e noontime S8n seems 7ello(is6 partl7 bea8se it emits
sli)6tl7 more 7ello( li)6t t6an ot6er olors, and partl7 bea8se, e'en (it6 t6e S8n o'er6ead,
some bl8e li)6t is sattered o8t o& t6e s8nbeams b7 t6e Eart6As atmosp6ere$<
It is sometimes said t6at sientists are 8nromanti, t6at t6eir passion to &i)8re o8t robs t6e
(orld o& bea8t7 and m7ster7$ B8t is it not stirrin) to 8nderstand 6o( t6e (orld at8all7 (orksG
t6at (6ite li)6t is made o& olors, t6at olor is t6e (a7 (e perei'e t6e (a'elen)t6s o& li)6t, t6at
transparent air re&lets li)6t, t6at in so doin) it disriminates amon) t6e (a'es, and t6at t6e sk7
is bl8e &or t6e same reason t6at t6e s8nset is redD It does no 6arm to t6e romane o& t6e s8nset to
kno( a little bit abo8t it$
Sine most simple mole8les are abo8t t6e same siIe =ro8)6l7 a 68ndred milliont6 o& a
entimeter<, t6e bl8e o& t6e Eart6As sk7 doesnAt m86 depend on (6at t6e air is made o&Gas lon)
as t6e air doesnAt a;or; t6e li)6t$ 2C7)en and nitro)en mole8les donAt absorb 'isible li)6t?
t6e7 onl7 bo8ne it a(a7 in some ot6er diretion$ 2t6er mole8les, t6o8)6, an )obble 8p t6e
li)6t$ 2Cides o& nitro)enGprod8ed in a8tomoti'e en)ines and in t6e &ires o& ind8str7Gare a
;"
so8re o& t6e m8rk7 bro(n oloration o& smo)$ 2Cides o& nitro)en =made &rom oC7)en and
nitro)en< do absorb li)6t$ ,bsorption, as (ell as satterin), an olor a sk7$
OTHER WORLDS, OTHER SKIES: 5er8r7, t6e Eart6As 5oon, and most satellites o& t6e ot6er
planets are small (orlds? bea8se o& t6eir &eeble )ra'ities, t6e7 are 8nable to retain t6eir
atmosp6eresG(6i6 instead trikle o& into spae$ 36e near-'a88m o& spae t6en rea6es t6e
)ro8nd$ S8nli)6t strikes t6eir s8r&aes 8nimpeded, neit6er sattered nor absorbed alon) t6e (a7$
36e skies o& t6ese (orlds are blak, e'en at noon$ 36is 6as been (itnessed &irst6and so &ar b7
onl7 1" 68mans, t6e l8nar landin) re(s o& Apollo 11, 12, and 1F-1*$
, &8ll list o& t6e satellites in t6e Solar S7stem, kno(n as o& t6is (ritin), is )i'en in t6e
aompan7in) table$ =Nearl7 6al& o& t6em (ere diso'ered b7 Vo$ager3) ,ll 6a'e blak skiesG
eCept 3itan o& Sat8rn and per6aps 3riton o& Nept8ne, (6i6 are bi) eno8)6 to 6a'e
atmosp6eres$ ,nd all asteroids as (ell$
#en8s 6as abo8t 90 times more air t6an Eart6$ It isnAt mainl7 oC7)en and nitro)en as 6ereG
itAs arbon dioCide$ B8t arbon dioCide doesnAt absorb 'isible li)6t eit6er$ *6at (o8ld t6e sk7
look like &rom t6e s8r&ae o& #en8s i& #en8s 6ad no lo8ds$ *it6 so m86 atmosp6ere in t6e
(a7, not onl7 are 'iolet and bl8e (a'es sattered, b8t all t6e ot6er olors as (ell-)reen 7ello(,
oran)e, red$ 36e air is so t6ik, t6o8)6, t6at 6ardl7 an7 bl8e li)6t makes it to t6e )ro8nd? itAs
sattered bak to spae b7 s8essi'e bo8nes 6i)6er 8p$ 368s, t6e li)6t t6at does rea6 t6e
)ro8nd s6o8ld be stron)l7 reddened-like an Eart6 s8nset all o'er t6e sk7$ %8rt6er, s8l&8r in t6e
6i)6 lo8ds (ill stain t6e sk7 7ello($ 0it8res taken b7 t6e So'iet Venera landers on&irm t6at
t6e skies o& #en8s are a kind o& 7ello(-oran)e$
SI93:-3*2 *2-.!S %2- 34E 34I-! 5I..ENNI15:
EN2*N 522NS 2% 34E 0.,NE3S =,N! 2NE ,S3E-2I!<G
.IS3E! IN 2-!E- 2% !IS3,N+E %-25 34EI- 0.,NE3
EARTH, MARS, ! IDA, JUPITER, " SATURN, # URANUS, $ NEPTUNE, # PLUT%,
5oon 06obos !at7l 5etis 0an +ordelia Naiad +6aron
!eimos ,drastea ,tlas 2p6elia 36alassa
,malt6ea 0romet6e8s Biana !espina
36ebe 0andora +ressida /alatea
to Epimet6e8s !esdemona .arissa
E8ropa >an8s >8liet 0rote8s
/an7mede 5imas 0ortia 3riton
+allisto Enelad8s -osalind Nereid
.eda 3et67s Belinda
4imalia 3elesto 08k
.7sit6ea +al7pso 5iranda
Elara !iane ,riel
,nanke 4elene 1mbriel
+arme -6ea 3itania
0asip6ae 3itan 2beron
Sinope 47perion
Iapet8s
06oebe
;3
5ars is a di&&erent stor7$ It is a smaller (orld t6an Eart6, (it6 a m86 t6inner atmosp6ere$
36e press8re at t6e s8r&ae o& 5ars is, in &at, abo8t t6e same as t6e altit8de in t6e Eart6As
stratosp6ere to (6i6 Simons rose$ So (e mi)6t eCpet t6e 5artian sk7 to be blak or p8rple-
blak$ 36e &irst olor pit8re &rom t6e s8r&ae o& 5ars (as obtained in >8l7 1976 b7 t6e
,merian Viking 1 landerGt6e &irst spaera&t to to86 do(n s8ess&8ll7 on t6e s8r&ae o& t6e
-ed 0lanet$ 36e di)ital data (ere d8ti&8ll7 radioed &rom 5ars bak to Eart6, and t6e olor
pit8re assembled b7 omp8ter$ 3o t6e s8rprise o& all t6e sientists and nobod7 else, t6at &irst
ima)e, released to t6e press, s6o(ed t6e 5artian sk7 to be a om&ortable, 6ome7 bl8eG
impossible &or a planet (it6 so ins8bstantial an atmosp6ere$ Somet6in) 6ad )one (ron)$
36e pit8re on 7o8r olor tele'ision set is a miCt8re o& t6ree mono6rome ima)es, ea6 in a
di&&erent olor o& li)6tGred, )reen, and bl8e$ :o8 an see t6is met6od o& olor ompositin) in
'ideo proHetion s7stems, (6i6 proHet separate beams o& red, )reen, and bl8e li)6t to )enerate
a &8ll-olor pit8re =inl8din) 7ello(s<$ 3o )et t6e ri)6t olor, 7o8r set needs to miC or balane
t6ese t6ree mono6rome ima)es orretl7$ I& 7o8 t8rn 8p t6e intensit7 o&, sa7, bl8e, t6e pit8re
(ill appear too bl8e$ ,n7 pit8re ret8rned &rom spae reK8ires a similar olor balane$
+onsiderable disretion is sometimes le&t to t6e omp8ter anal7sts in deidin) t6is balane$ 36e
hiking anal7sts (ere not planetar7 astronomers, and (it6 t6is &irst olor pit8re &rom 5ars
t6e7 simpl7 miCed t6e olors 8ntil it looked Bri)6t$B *e are so onditioned b7 o8r eCperiene on
Eart6 t6at Bri)6t,B o& o8rse, means a bl8e sk7$ 36e olor o& t6e pit8re (as soon orretedG
8sin) olor alibration standards plaed &or t6is 'er7 p8rpose on board t6e spaera&tGand t6e
res8ltin) omposite s6o(ed no bl8e sk7 at all? rat6er it (as somet6in) bet(een o6re and pink$
Not bl8e, b8t 6ardl7 p8rple-blak eit6er$
36is is t6e ri)6t olor o& t6e 5artian sk7$ 586 o& t6e s8r&ae o& 5ars is desertGand red
bea8se t6e sands are r8sk$ 36ere are oasional 'iolent sandstorms t6at li&t &ine partiles &rom
t6e s8r&ae 6i)6 into t6e atmosp6ere$ It takes a lon) time &or t6em to &all o8t, and be&ore t6e sk7
6as &8ll7 leaned itsel&, t6ereAs al(a7s anot6er sandstorm$ /lobal or near-)lobal sandstorms
o8r almost e'er7 5artian 7ear$ Sine r8st7 partiles are al(a7s s8spended in t6is sk7, &8t8re
)enerations o& 68mans, born and li'in) o8t t6eir li'es on 5ars, (ill onsider t6at salmon olor
to be as nat8ral and &amiliar as (e onsider o8r 6ome7 bl8e$ %rom a sin)le )lane at t6e da7time
sk7, t6e7All probabl7 be able to tell 6o( lon) itAs been sine t6e last bi) sandstorm$
36e planets in t6e o8ter Solar S7stemG>8piter, Sat8rn, 1ran8s, and Nept8neG are o& a
di&&erent sort$ 36ese are 68)e (orlds (it6 )iant atmosp6eres made mainl7 o& 67dro)en and
6eli8m$ 36eir solid s8r&aes are so deep inside t6at no s8nli)6t penetrates t6ere at all$ !o(n
t6ere, t6e sk7 is blak, (it6 no prospet o& a s8nriseGnot e'er$ 36e perpet8al starless ni)6t is
per6aps ill8minated on oasion b7 a bolt o& li)6tnin)$ B8t 6i)6er in t6e atmosp6ere, (6ere t6e
s8nli)6t rea6es, a m86 more bea8ti&8l 'ista a(aits$
2n >8piter, abo'e a 6i)6-altit8de 6aIe la7er omposed o& ammonia =rat6er t6an (ater< ie
partiles, t6e sk7 is almost blak$ %art6er do(n, in t6e bl8e sk7 re)ion, are m8ltiolored lo8ds
Gin 'ario8s s6ades o& 7ello(-bro(n, and o& 8nkno(n omposition$ =36e andidate materials
inl8de s8l&8r, p6osp6or8s, and ompleC or)ani mole8les$< E'en &art6er do(n, t6e sk7 (ill
appear red-bro(n, eCept t6at t6e lo8ds t6ere are o& 'ar7in) t6iknesses, and (6ere t6e7 are
t6in, 7o8 mi)6t see a pat6 o& bl8e$ Still deeper, (e )rad8all7 ret8rn to perpet8al ni)6t$
;4
Somet6in) similar is tr8e on Sat8rn, b8t t6e olors t6ere are more m8ted$
1ran8s and espeiall7 Nept8ne 6a'e an 8nann7, a8stere bl8e olor t6ro8)6 (6i6 lo8dsG
some o& t6em a little (6iterGare arried b7 6i)6-speed (inds$ S8nli)6t rea6es a omparati'el7
lean atmosp6ere omposed mainl7 o& 67dro)en and 6eli8m b8t also ri6 in met6ane$ .on) pat6s
o& met6ane absorb 7ello( and espeiall7 red li)6t and let t6e )reen and bl8e &ilter t6ro8)6$ , t6in
67droarbon 6aIe remo'es a little bl8e$ 36ere ma7 be a dept6 (6ere t6e sk7 is )reenis6$
+on'entional (isdom 6olds t6at t6e absorption b7 met6ane and t6e -a7lei)6 satterin) o&
s8nli)6t b7 t6e deep atmosp6ere to)et6er ao8nt &or t6e bl8e olors on 1ran8s and Nept8ne$
B8t anal7sis o& Vo$ager data b7 Ee'in Baines o& >0. seems to s6o( t6at t6ese a8ses are
ins8&&iient$ ,pparentl7 'er7 deepGma7be in t6e 'iinit7 o& 67pot6esiIed lo8ds o& 67dro)en
s8l&ideGt6ere is an ab8ndant bl8e s8bstane$ So &ar no one 6as been able to &i)8re o8t (6at it
mi)6t be$ Bl8e materials are 'er7 rare in Nat8re$ ,s al(a7s 6appens in siene, t6e old m7steries
are dispelled onl7 to be replaed b7 ne( ones$ Sooner or later (eAll &ind o8t t6e ans(er to t6is
one, too$
ALL WORLDS WITH NONBLACK SKIES 6a'e atmosp6eres$ I& 7o8Are standin) on t6e s8r&ae and
t6ereAs an atmosp6ere t6ik eno8)6 to see, t6ereAs probabl7 a (a7 to fy t6ro8)6 it$ *eAre no(
sendin) o8r instr8ments to &l7 in t6e 'ario8sl7 olored skies o& ot6er (orlds$ Someda7 (e (ill
)o o8rsel'es$
0ara68tes 6a'e alread7 been 8sed in t6e atmosp6eres o& #en8s and 5ars, and are planned
&or >8piter and 3itan$ In 19;5 t(o %ren6-So'iet balloons sailed t6ro8)6 t6e 7ello( skies o&
#en8s$ 36e Vega 9 balloon, abo8t 4 meters aross, dan)led an instr8ment paka)e 13 meters
belo($ 36e balloon in&lated in t6e ni)6t 6emisp6ere, &loated abo8t 54 kilometers abo'e t6e
s8r&ae, and transmitted data &or almost t(o Eart6 da7s be&ore its batteries &ailed$ In t6at time it
tra'eled 11,600 kilometers =nearl7 7,000 miles< o'er t6e s8r&ae o& #en8s, &ar belo($ 36e Vega 2
balloon 6ad an almost idential pro&ile$ 36e atmosp6ere o& #en8s 6as also been 8sed &or
aerobrakin)G6an)in) t6e Magellan spaera&tAs orbit b7 &rition (it6 t6e dense air? t6is is a
ke7 &8t8re te6nolo)7 &or on'ertin) &l7b7 spaera&t to 5ars into orbiters and landers$
, 5ars mission, s6ed8led to be la8n6ed in 199;, and led b7 -8ssia, inl8des an
enormo8s %ren6 6ot air balloonGlookin) somet6in) like a 'ast Hell7&is6, a 0ort8)8ese man-o&-
(ar$ ItAs desi)ned to sink to t6e 5artian s8r&ae e'er7 6ill7 t(ili)6t and rise 6i)6 (6en 6eated
b7 s8nli)6t t6e neCt da7$ 36e (inds are so &ast t6at, i& all )oes (ell, it (ill be arried 68ndreds o&
kilometers ea6 da7, 6oppin) and skippin) o'er t6e nort6 pole$ In t6e earl7 mornin), (6en lose
to t6e )ro8nd, it (ill obtain 'er7 6i)6 resol8tion pit8res and ot6er data$ 36e balloon 6as an
instr8mental )8ide-rope, essential &or its stabilit7, onei'ed and desi)ned b7 a pri'ate
members6ip or)aniIation based in 0asadena, +ali&ornia, 36e 0lanetar7 Soiet7$
Sine t6e s8r&ae press8re on 5ars is approCimatel7 t6at at an altit8de o& 100,000 &eet on
Eart6, (e kno( (e an &l7 airplanes t6ere$ 36e 1-", &or eCample, or t6e S--71 >la7k;ir)
ro8tinel7 approa6es s86 lo( press8res$ ,irra&t (it6 e'en lar)er (in)spans 6a'e been
desi)ned &or 5ars$
36e dream o& &li)6t and t6e dream o& spae tra'el are t(ins, onei'ed b7 similar
'isionaries, dependent on allied te6nolo)ies, and e'ol'in) more or less in tandem$ ,s ertain
;5
pratial and eonomi limits to &li)6t on Eart6 are rea6ed, t6e possibilit7 arises o& &l7in)
t6ro8)6 t6e m8lti68ed skies o& ot6er (orlds$
IT IS NOW ALMOST POSSIBLE to assi)n olor ombinations, based on t6e olors o& lo8ds and
sk7, to e'er7 planet in t6e Solar S7stemG&rom t6e s8l&8r-stained skies o& #en8s and t6e r8st7
skies o& 5ars to t6e aK8amarine o& 1ran8s and t6e 67pnoti and 8neart6l7 bl8e o& Nept8ne$
Sa7re-Aaun"9 a7re-rouge9 a7re-4er"3 0er6aps t6e7 (ill one da7 adorn t6e &la)s o& distant 68man
o8tposts in t6e Solar S7stem, in t6at time (6en t6e ne( &rontiers are s(eepin) o8t &rom t6e S8n
to t6e stars, and t6e eCplorers are s8rro8nded b7 t6e endless blak o& spae$ Sa7re-noir3
C H A P T E R 11
E#ENIN/ ,N!

52-NIN/ S3,-

36is is anot6er (orld
*6i6 is not o& men$
G.I B,I, BT1ES3I2N ,N! ,NS*E- IN 34E 521N3,INSB
=+4IN,, 3,N/ !:N,S3:, +,$ 730<
Yo8 an see it s6inin) brilliantl7 in t6e t(ili)6t, 6asin) t6e S8n do(n belo( t6e (estern
6oriIon$ 1pon &irst )limpsin) it ea6 ni)6t, people (ere a8stomed to make a (is6 =B8pon a
starB<$ Sometimes t6e (is6 ame tr8e$
2r 7o8 an sp7 it in t6e east be&ore da(n, &leein) t6e risin) S8n$ In t6ese t(o
inarnations, bri)6ter t6an an7t6in) else in t6e sk7 eCept onl7 t6e S8n and t6e 5oon it (as
kno(n as t6e e'enin) and t6e mornin) star$ 28r anestors did not reo)niIe it (as a (orld, t6e
;6
same (orld, ne'er too &ar &rom t6e S8n bea8se it is in an orbit abo8t it interior to t6e Eart6As$
>8st be&ore s8nset or H8st a&ter s8nrise, (e an sometimes see it near some &l8&&7 (6ite lo8d,
and t6en diso'er b7 t6e omparison t6at #en8s 6as a olor, a pale lemon-7ello($
:o8 peer t6ro8)6 t6e e7epiee o& a telesopeGe'en a bi) telesope, e'en t6e lar)est
optial telesope on Eart6Gand 7o8 an make o8t no detail at all$ 2'er t6e mont6s, 7o8 see a
&eat8reless disk met6odiall7 )oin) t6ro8)6 p6ases, like t6e 5oon: resent #en8s, &8ll #en8s,
)ibbo8s #en8s, ne( #en8s$ 36ere is not a 6int o& ontinents or oeans$
Some o& t6e &irst astronomers to see #en8s t6ro8)6 t6e telesope immediatel7 reo)niIed
t6at t6e7 (ere eCaminin) a (orld ens6ro8ded b7 lo8ds$ 36e lo8ds, (e no( kno(, are droplets
o& onentrated s8l&8ri aid, stained 7ello( b7 a little elemental s8l&8r$ 36e7 lie 6i)6 abo'e t6e
)ro8nd$ In ordinar7 'isible li)6t t6ereAs no 6int o& (6at t6is planetAs s8r&ae, some 50 kilometers
belo( t6e lo8d tops, is like, and &or ent8ries t6e best (e 6ad (ere (ild )8esses$
:o8 mi)6t onHet8re t6at i& (e o8ld take a m86 &iner look t6ere mi)6t be breaks in t6e
lo8ds, re'ealin) da7 b7 da7, in bits and piees, t6e m7sterio8s s8r&ae ordinaril7 6idden &rom
o8r 'ie($ 36en t6e time o& )8esses (o8ld be o'er$ 36e Eart6 is on a'era)e 6al& lo8d-o'ered$ In
t6e earl7 da7s o& #en8s eCploration, (e sa( no reason t6at #en8s s6o8ld be 100 perent o'erast$
I& instead it (as onl7 90 perent, or e'en 99 perent, lo8d-o'ered, t6e transient pat6es o&
learin) mi)6t tell 8s m86$
In 1960 and 1961, Mariner 1 and ", t6e &irst ,merian spaera&t desi)ned to 'isit #en8s,
(ere bein) prepared$ 36ere (ere t6ose, like me, (6o t6o8)6t t6e s6ips s6o8ld arr7 'ideo
ameras so t6e7 o8ld radio pit8res bak to Eart6$ 36e same te6nolo)7 (o8ld be 8sed a &e(
7ears later (6en -anger *9 89 and 9 (o8ld p6oto)rap6 t6e 5oon on t6e (a7 to t6eir ras6
landin)sGt6e last makin) a b8llAs-e7e in t6e rater ,lp6ons8s$ B8t time (as s6ort &or t6e
#en8s mission, and ameras (ere 6ea'7$ 36ere (ere t6ose (6o maintained t6at ameras
(erenAt reall7 sienti&i instr8ments, b8t rat6er at6-as-at6-an, raIIle-daIIle, panderin) to
t6e p8bli, and 8nable to ans(er a sin)le strai)6t&or(ard, (ell-posed sienti&i K8estion$ I
t6o8)6t m7sel& t6at (6et6er t6ere are breaks in t6e lo8ds (as one s86 K8estion$ I ar)8ed t6at
ameras o8ld also ans(er K8estions t6at (e (ere too d8mb e'en to pose$ I ar)8ed t6at
pit8res (ere t6e onl7 (a7 to s6o( t6e p8bliG(6o (ere, a&ter all, &ootin) t6e billGt6e
eCitement o& roboti missions$ ,t an7 rate, no amera (as &lo(n, and s8bseK8ent missions
6a'e, &or t6is parti8lar (orld, at least partl7 'indiated t6at H8d)ment: E'en at 6i)6 resol8tion
&rom lose &l7b7s, in 'isible li)6t it t8rns o8t t6ere are no breaks in t6e lo8ds o& #en8s, an7
more t6an in t6e lo8ds o& 3itan$
1
36ese (orlds are permanentl7 o'erast$
In t6e 8ltra'iolet t6ere is detail, b8t d8e to transient pat6es o& 6i)6-altit8de o'erast, &ar
abo'e t6e main lo8d dek$ 36e 6i)6 lo8ds rae aro8nd t6e planet m86 &aster t6an t6e planet
itsel& t8rns: s8per-rotation$ *e 6a'e an e'en smaller 6ane o& seein) t6e s8r&ae in t6e
8ltra'iolet$
*6en it beame lear t6at t6e atmosp6ere o& #en8s (as m86 t6iker t6an t6e air on Eart6
Gas (e no( kno(, t6e press8re at t6e s8r&ae is ninet7 times (6at it is 6ereGit immediatel7
1
%or 3itan, ima)in) re'ealed a s8ession o& deta6ed 6aIes abo'e t6e main la7er o& aerosols$ So #en8s (orks o8t to be t6e onl7
(orld in t6e Solar S7stem &or (6i6 spaera&t ameras (orkin) in ordinar7 'isible li)6t (a4en6" diso'ered somet6in) important$
4appil7, (eA'e no( ret8rned pit8res &rom almost e'er7 (orld (eA'e 'isited$ =N,S,As International +ometar7 Explorer9 (6i6 raed
t6ro8)6 t6e tail o& +omet /iaobini-@immer in 19;5, &le( blind, be de'oted to 6ar)ed partiles and ma)neti &ields$<
;7
&ollo(ed t6at in ordinar7 'isible li)6t (e o8ld not possibl7 see t6e s8r&ae, e'en i& t6ere <ere
breaks in t6e lo8ds$ *6at little s8nli)6t is able to make its tort8o8s (a7 t6ro8)6 t6e dense
atmosp6ere to t6e s8r&ae (o8ld be re&leted bak, all ri)6t? b8t t6e p6otons (o8ld be so
H8mbled b7 repeated satterin) o&& mole8les in t6e lo(er air t6at no ima)e o& s8r&ae &eat8res
o8ld be retained$ It (o8ld be like a B(6iteo8tB in polar sno(storm$ 4o(e'er, t6is e&&et, intense
-a7lei)6 satterin), delines rapidl7 (it6 inreasin) (a'elen)t6? in t6e near-in&rared, it (as
eas7 to al8late, 7o8 o8ld see t6e s8r&ae i& t6ere (ere breaks in t6e lo8ds or i& t6e lo8ds
(ere transparent t6ere$
So in 1970 >im 0ollak, !a'e 5orrison, and I (ent to t6e 5!onald 2bser'ator7 o& t6e
1ni'ersit7 o& 3eCas to tr7 to obser'e #en8s in t6e near-in&rared$ *e B67persensitiIedB o8r
em8lsions? t6e )ood old-&as6ioned
1
)lass p6oto)rap6i plates (ere treated (it6 ammonia, and
sometimes 6eated or brie&l7 ill8minated, be&ore bein) eCposed at t6e telesope to li)6t &rom
#en8s$ %or a time t6e ellars o& 5!onald 2bser'ator7 reeked o& ammonia$ *e took man7
pit8res$ None s6o(ed an7 detail$ *e onl8ded t6at eit6er (e 6adnAt )one &ar eno8)6 into t6e
in&rared or t6e lo8ds o& #en8s (ere opaK8e and 8nbroken in t6e near in&rared$
5ore t6an "0 7ears later, t6e %alileo spaera&t, makin) a lose &l7b7 o& #en8s, eCamined it
(it6 6i)6er resol8tion and sensiti'it7, and at (a'elen)t6s a little &8rt6er into t6e in&rared t6an (e
(ere able to rea6 (it6 o8r r8de )lass em8lsions$ %alileo p6oto)rap6ed )reat mo8ntain ran)es$
*e alread7 kne( o& t6eir eCistene, t6o8)6? a m86 more po(er&8l te6niK8e 6ad earlier been
emplo7ed: radar$ -adio (a'es e&&ortlessl7 penetrate t6e lo8ds and t6ik atmosp6ere o& #en8s,
bo8ne o&& t6e s8r&ae, and ret8rn to Eart6, (6ere t6e7 are )at6ered in and 8sed to make a
pit8re$ 36e &irst (ork 6ad been done, 6ie&l7, b7$ ,merian )ro8nd-based radar at >0.As
/oldstone trakin) station in t6e 5oHa'e !esert and at t6e ,reibo 2bser'ator7 in 08erto -io,
operated b7 +ornell 1ni'ersit7$
36en t6e 1$S$ Pioneer 129 t6e So'iet Venera 15 and D6 and t6e 1$S$ Magellan missions
inserted radar telesopes into orbit aro8nd #en8s and mapped t6e plae pole to pole$ Ea6
spaera&t (o8ld transmit a radar si)nal to t6e s8r&ae and t6en at6 it as it bo8ned bak$ %rom
6o( re&leti'e ea6 pat6 o& s8r&ae (as and 6o( lon) it took t6e si)nal to ret8rn =s6orter &rom
mo8ntains, lon)er &rom 'alle7s<, a detailed map o& t6e entire s8r&ae (as slo(l7 and
painstakin)l7 onstr8ted$
36e (orld so re'ealed t8rns o8t to be 8niK8el7 s8lpted b7 la'a &lo(s =and, to a m86 lesser
de)ree, b7 (ind<, as desribed in t6e neCt 6apter$ 36e lo8ds and atmosp6ere o& #en8s 6a'e
no( beome transparent to 8s, and anot6er (orld 6as been 'isited b7 t6e do8)6t7 robot eCplorers
&rom Eart6$ 28r eCperiene (it6 #en8s is no( bein) applied else(6ereGespeiall7 to 3itan,
(6ere one a)ain impenetrable lo8ds 6ide an eni)mati s8r&ae, and radar is be)innin) to )i'e
8s 6ints o& (6at mi)6t lie belo($
1
3oda7 man7 telesopi ima)es are obtained (it6 s86 eletroni ontri'anes as 6ar)e-o8pled de'ies and diode arra7s, and
proessed b7 omp8terGall te6nolo)ies 8na'ailable to astronomers in 1970$
;;
VENUS HAD LONG BEEN THOUGHT o& as o8r sister (orld$ It is t6e nearest planet to t6e Eart6$ It
6as almost t6e same mass, siIe, densit7, and )ra'itational p8ll as t6e Eart6 does$ ItAs a little loser
to t6e S8n t6an t6e Eart6, b8t its bri)6t lo8ds re&let more s8nli)6t bak to spae t6an o8r
lo8ds do$ ,s a &irst )8ess 7o8 mi)6t 'er7 (ell ima)ine t6at, 8nder t6ose 8nbroken lo8ds,
#en8s (as rat6er like Eart6$ Earl7 sienti&i spe8lation inl8ded &etid s(amps ra(lin) (it6
monster amp6ibians, like t6e Eart6 in t6e +arboni&ero8s 0eriod? a (orld desert? a )lobal
petrole8m sea? and a seltIer oean dotted 6ere and t6ere (it6 limestone-enr8sted islands$ *6ile
based on some sienti&i data, t6ese PmodelsB o& #en8sGt6e &irst datin) &rom t6e be)innin)s o&
t6e ent8r7, t6e seond &rom t6e 1930s, and t6e last t(o &rom t6e raid-1950sG(ere little more
t6an sienti&i romanes, 6ardl7 onstrained b7 t6e sparse data a'ailable$
36en, in 1956, a report (as p8blis6ed in /(e A"rop($i7al Gournal b7 +ornell 4$ 5a7er and
6is ollea)8es$ 36e7 6ad pointed a ne(l7 ompleted radio telesope, b8ilt in part &or lassi&ied
resear6, on t6e roo& o& t6e Na'al -esear6 .aborator7 in *as6in)ton, !$+$, at #en8s and
meas8red t6e &l8C o& radio (a'es arri'in) at Eart6$ 36is (as not radar: No radio (a'es (ere
bo8ned o&& #en8s$ 36is (as listenin) to radio (a'es t6at #en8s on its o(n emits to spae$ #en8s
t8rned o8t to be m86 bri)6ter t6an t6e bak)ro8nd o& distant stars and )alaCies$ 36is in itsel&
(as not 'er7 s8rprisin)$ E'er7 obHet (armer t6an absol8te Iero =-"73U+< )i'es o&& radiation
t6ro8)6o8t t6e eletroma)neti spetr8m, inl8din) t6e radio re)ion$ :o8, &or eCample, emit
radio (a'es at an e&&eti'e or Bbri)6tnessB temperat8re o& abo8t 35U+, and i& 7o8 (ere in
s8rro8ndin)s older t6an 7o8 are, a sensiti'e radio telesope o8ld detet t6e &aint radio (a'es
7o8 are transmittin) in all diretions$ Ea6 o& 8s is a so8re o& old stati$
*6at <a s8rprisin) abo8t 5a7erAs diso'er7 (as t6at t6e bri)6tness temperat8re o& #en8s
is more t6an 300U+, &ar 6i)6er t6an t6e s8r&ae temperat8re o& t6e Eart6 or t6e meas8red in&rared
temperat8re o& t6e lo8ds o& #en8s$ Some plaes on #en8s seemed at least "00U 6otter t6an t6e
normal boilin) point o& (ater$ *6at o8ld t6is meanD
Soon t6ere (as a del8)e o& eCplanations$ I ar)8ed t6at t6e 6i)6 radio bri)6tness temperat8re
(as a diret indiation o& a 6ot s8r&ae, and t6at t6e 6i)6 temperat8res (ere d8e to a massi'e
arbon dioCideN(ater 'apor )reen6o8se e&&etGin (6i6 some s8nli)6t is transmitted t6ro8)6
t6e lo8ds and 6eats t6e S8r&ae, b8t t6e s8r&ae eCperienes enormo8s di&&i8lt7 in radiatin)
bak to spae bea8se o& t6e 6i)6 in&rared opait7 o& arbon dioCide and (ater 'apor$ +arbon
dioCide absorbs at a ran)e o& (a'elen)t6s t6ro8)6 t6e in&rared, b8t t6ere seemed to be
B(indo(sB bet(een t6e +2
"
absorption bands t6ro8)6 (6i6 t6e s8r&ae o8ld readil7 ool o&&
to spae$ *ater 'apor, t6o8)6, absorbs at in&rared &reK8enies t6at orrespond in part to t6e
(indo(s in t6e arbon dioCide opait7$ 36e t(o )ases to)et6er, it seemed to me, o8ld prett7
(ell absorb almost all t6e in&rared emission, e'en i& t6ere (as 'er7 little (ater 'aporG
somet6in) like t(o piket &enes, t6e slats o& one bein) &ort8ito8sl7 positioned to o'er t6e )aps
o& t6e ot6er$
36ere (as anot6er 'er7 di&&erent ate)or7 o& eCplanation, in (6i6 t6e 6i)6 bri)6tness
temperat8re o& #en8s 6ad not6in) to do (it6 t6e )ro8nd$ 36e s8r&ae o8ld still be temperate,
lement, on)enial$ It (as proposed t6at some re)ion in t6e atmosp6ere o& #en8s or in its
s8rro8ndin) ma)netosp6ere emitted t6ese radio (a'es to spae$ Eletrial dis6ar)es bet(een
;9
(ater droplets in t6e #en8s lo8ds (ere s8))ested$ , )lo( dis6ar)e in (6i6 ions and eletrons
reombined at t(ili)6t and da(n in t6e 8pper atmosp6ere (as o&&ered$ , 'er7 dense ionosp6ere
6ad its ad'oates, in (6i6 t6e m8t8al aeleration o& 8nbo8nd eletrons =B&ree-&ree emissionB<
)a'e o&& radio (a'es$ =2ne proponent o& t6is idea e'en s8))ested t6at t6e 6i)6 ioniIation
reK8ired (as d8e to an a'era)e o& 10,000 times )reater radioati'it7 on #en8s t6an on Eart6G
per6aps &rom a reent n8lear (ar t6ere$< ,nd, in t6e li)6t o& t6e diso'er7 o& radiation &rom
>8piterAs ma)netosp6ere, it (as nat8ral to s8))est t6at t6e radio emission ame &rom an immense
lo8d o& 6ar)ed partiles trapped b7 some 67pot6etial 'er7 intense #en8sian ma)neti &ield$
In a series o& papers I p8blis6ed in t6e middle 1960s, man7 in ollaboration (it6 >im
0ollak,
1
t6ese on&litin) models o& a 6i)6 6ot emittin) re)ion and a old s8r&ae (ere
s8bHeted to a ritial anal7sis$ B7 t6en (e 6ad t(o important ne( l8es: t6e radio spetr8m o&
#en8s, and t6e Mariner 2 e'idene t6at t6e radio emission (as more intense at t6e enter o& t6e
disk o& #en8s t6an to(ard its ed)e$ B7 1967 (e (ere able to eCl8de t6e alternati'e models (it6
some on&idene, and onl8de t6at t6e s8r&ae o& #en8s (as at a sor6in) and 8n-Eart6like
temperat8re, in eCess o& 400U+$ B8t t6e ar)8ment (as in&erential, and t6ere (ere man7
intermediate steps$ *e lon)ed &or a more diret meas8rement$
In 2tober 1967Gommemoratin) t6e tent6 anni'ersar7 o& Spu"nik 1Gt6e So'iet Venera F
spaera&t dropped an entr7 aps8le into t6e lo8ds o& #en8s$ It ret8rned data &rom t6e 6ot lo'er
atmosp6ere, b8t did not s8r'i'e to t6e s8r&ae$ 2ne da7 later, t6e 1nited States spaera&t
Mariner 5 &le( b7 #en8s, its radio transmission to Eart6 skimmin) t6e atmosp6ere at
pro)ressi'el7 )reater dept6s$ 36e rate o& &adin) o& t6e si)nal )a'e in&ormation abo8t
atmosp6eri temperat8res$ ,lt6o8)6 t6ere seemed to be some disrepanies =later resol'ed<
bet(een t6e t(o sets o& spaera&t data, bot6 learl7 indiated t6at t6e s8r&ae o& #en8s is 'er7
6ot$
Sine t6en a pro)ression o& So'iet Venera spaera&t and one l8ster o& ,merian spaera&t
&rom t6e Pioneer 12 mission 6a'e entered t6e deep atmosp6ere or landed on t6e s8r&ae and
meas8red diretl7Gessentiall7 b7 stikin) o8t a t6ermometerGt6e s8r&ae and near-s8r&ae
temperat8res$ 36e7 t8rn o8t to be abo8t 470U+, almost 900U%$ *6en s86 &ators as alibration
errors o& terrestrial radio telesopes and s8r&ae emissi'it7 are taken into ao8nt, t6e old radio
obser'ations and t6e ne( diret spaera&t meas8rements t8rn o8t to be in )ood aord$
Earl7 So'iet landers (ere desi)ned &or an atmosp6ere some(6at like o8r o(n$ 36e7 (ere
r8s6ed b7 t6e 6i)6 press8res like a tin an in t6e )rasp o& a 6ampion arm (restler, or a *orld
*ar II s8bmarine in t6e 3on)a 3ren6$ 36erea&ter, So'iet #en8s entr7 'e6iles (ere 6ea'il7
rein&ored, like modern s8bmarines, and s8ess&8ll7 landed on t6e searin) s8r&ae$ *6en it
beame lear 6o( deep t6e atmosp6ere is and 6o( t6ik t6e lo8ds, So'iet desi)ners beame
onerned t6at t6e s8r&ae mi)6t be pit6-blak$ Venera 9 and 10 (ere eK8ipped (it6
1
>ames B$ 0ollak made important ontrib8tions to e'er7 area o& planetar7 siene$ 4e (as m7 &irst )rad8ate st8dent and a
ollea)8e e'er sine$ 4e on'erted N,S,As ,mes -esear6 +enter into a (orld leader in planetar7 resear6 and t6e post-dotoral
trainin) o& planetar7 sientists$ 4is )entleness (as as eCtraordinar7 as 6is sienti&i abilities$ 4e died in 1994 at t6e 6ei)6t o& 6is
po(ers$
90
&loodli)6ts$ 36e7 pro'ed 8nneessar7$ , &e( perent o& t6e s8nli)6t t6at &alls on t6e top o& t6e
lo8ds makes it t6ro8)6 to t6e s8r&ae, and #en8s is abo8t as bri)6t as on a lo8d7 da7 on Eart6$
36e resistane to t6e idea o& a 6ot s8r&ae on #en8s an, I s8ppose, be attrib8ted to o8r
rel8tane to abandon t6e notion t6at t6e nearest planet is 6ospitable &or li&e, &or &8t8re
eCploration, and per6aps e'en, in t6e lon)er term, &or 68man settlement$ ,s it t8rns o8t t6ere are
no +arboni&ero8s s(amps no )lobal oil or seltIer oeans$ Instead, #en8s is a sti&lin), broodin)
in&erno$ 36ere are some deserts, b8t itAs mainl7 a (orld o& &roIen la'a seas$ 28r 6opes are
8n&8l&illed$ 36e all o& t6is (orld is no( more m8ted t6an in t6e earl7 da7s o& spaera&t
eCploration, (6en almost an7t6in) (as possible and o8r most romanti notions abo8t #en8s
mi)6t, &or all (e t6en kne(, be realiIed$
MANY SPACECRAFT CONTRIBUTED to o8r present 8nderstandin) o& #en8s$ B8t t6e pioneerin)
mission (as Mariner 23 Mariner 1 &ailed at la8n6 andGas t6e7 sa7 o& a rae6orse (it6 a broken
le)G6ad to be destro7ed$ Mariner 2 (orked bea8ti&8ll7 and pro'ided t6e ke7 earl7 radio data on
t6e limate o& #en8s$ It made in&rared obser'ations o& t6e properties o& t6e lo8ds$ 2n its (a7
&rom Eart6 to #en8s, it diso'ered and meas8red t6e solar (indGt6e stream o& 6ar)ed partiles
t6at &lo(s o8t(ard &rom t6e S8n, &illin) t6e ma)netosp6eres o& an7 planets in its (a7, blo(in)
bak t6e tails o& omets, and establis6in) t6e distant 6eliopa8se$ Mariner 2 (as t6e &irst
s8ess&8l planetar7 probe, t6e s6ip t6at 8s6ered in t6e a)e o& planetar7 eCploration$
ItAs still in orbit aro8nd t6e S8n, e'er7 &e( 68ndred da7s still approa6in), more or less
tan)entiall7, t6e orbit o& #en8s$ Ea6 time t6at 6appens, #en8s isnAt t6ere$ B8t i& (e (ait lon)
eno8)6, #en8s (ill one da7 be nearb7 and Mariner 2 <ill be aelerated b7 t6e planetAs )ra'it7
into some K8ite di&&erent orbit$ 1ltimatel7, Mariner 29 like some planetesimal &rom a)es past,
(ill be s(ept 8p b7 anot6er planet, &all into t6e S8n, or be eHeted &rom t6e Solar S7stem$
1ntil t6en, t6is 6arbin)er o& t6e a)e o& planetar7 eCploration, t6is min8s8le arti&iial planet,
(ill ontin8e silentl7 orbitin) t6e S8n$ ItAs a little as i& +ol8mb8sAs &la)s6ip, t6e San"a Maria9
(ere still makin) re)8lar r8ns (it6 a )6ostl7 re( aross t6e ,tlanti bet(een +adiI and
4ispaniola$ In t6e 'a88m o& interplanetar7 spae, Mariner 2 s6o8ld be in mint ondition &or
man7 )enerations$
57 (is6 on t6e e'enin) and mornin) star is t6is: t6at late in t6e t(ent7-&irst ent8r7 some
)reat s6ip, on its re)8lar )ra'it7-assisted transit to t6e o8ter Solar S7stem, interepts t6is anient
derelit and 6ea'es it aboard, so it an be displa7ed in a m8se8m o& earl7 spae te6nolo)7Gon
5ars, per6aps, or E8ropa, or Iapet8s$
91
+ 4 , 0 3 E - 1"
34E /-21N!
5E.3S

5id(a7 bet(een 36era and 36erasia, &ires broke &ort6 &rom t6e sea and
ontin8ed &or &o8r da7s, so t6at t6e (6ole sea boiled and blaIed, and t6e
&ires ast 8p an island (6i6 (as )rad8all7 ele'ated as t6o8)6 b7 le'ers $ $ $
,&ter t6e essation o& t6e er8ption, t6e -6odians, at t6e time
o& t6eir maritime s8prema7, (ere &irst to 'ent8re 8pon
9"
t6e sene and to eret on t6e island a temple$
S3-,B2, %EO%-AP1, =+,$ 7 B$+<
All o'er t6e Eart6, 7o8 an &ind a kind o& mo8ntain (it6 one strikin) and 8n8s8al &eat8re$ ,n7
6ild an reo)niIe it: 36e top seems s6eared or sK8ared o&&: I& 7o8 limb to t6e s8mmit or &l7
o'er it, 7o8 diso'er t6at t6e mo8ntain 6as a 6ole or rater at its peak$ In some mo8ntains o& t6is
sort, t6e raters are small? in ot6ers, t6e7 are almost as bi) as t6e mo8ntain itsel&$ 2asionall7,
t6e raters are &illed (it6 (ater$ Sometimes t6e7Are &illed (it6 a more amaIin) liK8id: :o8 tiptoe
10 t6e ed)e, and see 'ast, )lo(in) lakes o& 7ello(-red liK8id and &o8ntains o& &ire$ 36ese 6oles
in t6e tops o& mo8ntains are alled alderas, a&ter t6e (ord Baldron,B and t6e mo8ntains on
(6i6 t6e7 sit are kno(n, o& o8rse, as 'olanosGa&ter #8lan, t6e -oman )od o& &ire$ 36ere
are per6aps 600 ati'e 'olanos diso'ered on Eart6$ Some, beneat6 t6e oeans, are 7et to be
&o8nd$
, t7pial 'olani mo8ntain looks sa&e eno8)6$ Nat8ral 'e)etation r8ns 8p its sides$
3erraed &ields deorate its &lanks$ 4amlets and s6rines nestle at its base$ ,nd 7et, (it6o8t
(arnin), a&ter ent8ries o& lassit8de, t6e mo8ntain ma7 eCplode$ Barra)es o& bo8lders, torrents o&
as6 drop o8t o& t6e sk7$ -i'ers o& molten rok ome po8rin) do(n its sides$ ,ll o'er t6e Eart6
people ima)ined t6at an ati'e 'olano (as an imprisoned )iant or demon str8))lin) to )et o8t$
36e er8ptions o& 5t$ St$ 4elens and 5t$ 0inat8bo are reent reminders, b8t eCamples an be
&o8nd t6ro8)6o8t 6istor7$ In 190" a 6ot, )lo(in) 'olani lo8d s(ept do(n t6e slopes o& 5t$
0elee and killed 35,000 people in t6e it7 o& St$ 0ierre on t6e +aribbean island o& 5artiniK8e$
5assi'e m8d&lo(s &rom t6e er8ption o& t6e Ne'ado del -8iI 'olano in 19;5 killed more t6an
"5,000 +olombians$ 36e er8ption o& 5t$ #es8'i8s in t6e &irst ent8r7 b8ried in as6 t6e 6apless
in6abitants o& 0ompeii and 4er8lane8m and killed t6e intrepid nat8ralist 0lin7 t6e Elder as 6e
made 6is (a7 8p t6e side o& t6e 'olano, intent on arri'in) at a better 8nderstandin) o& its
(orkin)s$ =0lin7 (as 6ardl7 t6e last: %i&teen 'olanolo)ists 6a'e been killed in s8ndr7 'olani
er8ptions bet(een 1979 and 1993$< 36e 5editerranean island o& Santorin =also alled 36era< is
in realit7 t6e onl7 part abo'e (ater o& t6e rim o& a 'olano no( in8ndated b7 t6e sea$
1
36e
eCplosion o& t6e Santorin 'olano in 16"3 B$+$ ma7, some 6istorians t6ink, 6a'e 6elped destro7
1
36e er8ption o& a nearb7 s8bmarine 'olano and t6e rapid onstr8tion 2&A ne( island in 197 B$+$ are desribed b7 Strabo in t6e
epi)rap6 to t6is 6apter$
93
t6e )reat 5inoan i'iliIation on t6e nearb7 island o& +rete and 6an)ed t6e balane o& po(er in
earl7 lassial i'iliIation$ 36is disaster ma7 be t6e ori)in o& t6e ,tlantis le)end as related b7
0lato, in (6i6 a i'iliIation (as destro7ed Bin a sin)le da7 and ni)6t o& mis&ort8ne$B It m8st
6a'e been eas7 bak t6en to t6ink t6at a )od (as an)r7$
#olanos 6a'e nat8rall7 been re)arded (it6 &ear and a(e$ *6en medie'al +6ristians 'ie(ed
t6e er8ption o& 5t$ 4ekla in Ieland and sa( 68rnin) &ra)ments o& so&t la'a s8spended o'er t6e
s8mmit, t6e7 ima)ined t6e7 (ere seein) t6e so8ls o& t6e damned a(aitin) entrane to 4ell$
B%ear&8l 6o(lin)s, (eepin) and )nas6in) o& teet6,B Bmelan6ol7 ries and lo8d (ailin)sB
(ere d8ti&8ll7 reported$ 36e )lo(in) red lakes and s8l&8ro8s )ases (it6in t6e 4ekla aldera
(ere t6o8)6t to be a real )limpse into t6e 8nder(orld and a on&irmation o& &olk belie&s in 4ell
sand, b7 s7mmetr7, in its partner, 4ea'en<$
, 'olano is, in &at, an apert8re to an 8nder)ro8nd realm m86 'aster t6an t6e t6in s8r&ae
la7er t6at 68mans in6abit, and &ar more 6ostile$ 36e la'a t6at er8pts &rom a 'olano is liK8id rok
Grok raised to its meltin) point, )enerall7 aro8nd 1000U+$ 36e la'a emer)es &rom a 6ole in t6e
Eart6? as it ools and solidi&ies, it )enerates and later remakes t6e &lanks o& a 'olani mo8ntain$
36e most 'olaniall7 ati'e loales on Eart6 tend to be alon) rid)es on t6e oean &loor and
island arsGat t6e H8ntion o& t(o )reat plates o& oeani r8stGeit6er separatin) &rom ea6
ot6er, or one slippin) 8nder t6e ot6er$ 2n t6e sea&loor t6ere are lon) Iones o& 'olani er8ptions
Gaompanied b7 s(arms o& eart6K8akes and pl8mes o& ab7ssal smoke and 6ot (aterGt6at (e
a are H8st be)innin) to obser'e (it6 robot and manned s8bmersible 'e6iles$
Er8ptions o& la'a m8st mean t6at t6e Eart6As interior is eCtremel7 6ot$ Indeed, seismi
e'idene s6o(s t6at, onl7 a &e( 68ndred kilometers beneat6 t6e s8r&ae, nearl7 t6e entire bod7
o& t6e Eart6 is at least sli)6tl7 molten$ 36e interior o& t6e Eart6 is 6ot, in part, bea8se radioati'e
elements t6ere, s86 as 8rani8m, )i'e o&& 6eat as t6e7 dea7? and in part bea8se t6e Eart6 retains
some o& t6e ori)inal 6eat released in its &ormation, (6en man7 small (orlds &ell to)et6er b7 t6eir
m8t8al )ra'it7 to make t6e Eart6, and (6en iron dri&ted do(n to &orm o8r planetAs ore$
36e molten rok, or ma)ma, rises t6ro8)6 &iss8res in t6e s8rro8ndin) 6ea'ier solid roks$
*e an ima)ine 'ast s8bterranean a'erns &illed (it6 )lo(in), red, b8bblin), 'iso8s liK8ids t6at
s6oot 8p to(ard t6e s8r&ae i& a s8itable 6annel is b7 6ane pro'ided$ 36e ma)ma, alled la'a
as it po8rs o8t o& t6e s8mmit aldera, does indeed arise &rom t6e 8nder(orld$ 36e so8ls o& t6e
damned 6a'e so &ar el8ded detetion$
2ne t6e 'olano is &8ll7 b8ilt &rom s8essi'e o8tpo8rin)s, and t6e la'a is no lon)er
spe(in) 8p into t6e aldera, t6en it beomes H8st like an7 ot6er mo8ntainGslo(l7 erodin)
bea8se o& rain&all and (indblo(n debris and, e'ent8all7, t6e mo'ement o& ontinental plates
aross t6e Eart6As s8r&ae$ B4o( man7 7ears an a mo8ntain eCist be&ore it is (as6ed to t6e seaDB
asked Bob !7lan in t6e ballad BBlo(in) in t6e *ind$B 36e ans(er depends on (6i6 planet
(eAre talkin) abo8t$ %or t6e Eart6, itAs t7piall7 abo8t ten million 7ears$ So mo8ntains, 'olani
and ot6er(ise, m8st be b8ilt on t6e same timesale? ot6er(ise t6e Eart6 (o8ld be e'er7(6ere
smoot6 as Eansas$
1
#olani eCplosions an p8n6 'ast K8antities o& matterGmainl7 &ine
1
E'en (it6 its mo8ntains and s8bmarine tren6es, o8r planet is astonis6in)l7 smoot6$ I& t6e Eart6 (ere t6e siIe o& a billiard ball, t6e
lar)est prot8beranes (o8ld be less t6an a tent6 o& a millimeter in siIeGon t6e t6res6old o& bein) too small to see or &eel$
94
droplets o& s8l&8ri aidGinto t6e stratosp6ere$ 36ere, &or a 7ear or t(o, t6e7 re&let s8nli)6t
bak to spae and ool t6e Eart6$ 36is 6appened reentl7 (it6 t6e 06ilippine 'olano, 5t$
0inat8bo, and disastro8sl7 in 1;15-16 a&ter t6e er8ption o& t6e Indonesian 'olano 5t$ 3ambora,
(6i6 res8lted in t6e &amine-ridden B7ear (it6o8t a s8mmer$B , 'olani er8ption in 3a8po, Ne(
@ealand, in t6e 7ear 177 ooled t6e limate o& t6e 5editerranean, 6al& a (orld a(a7, and dropped
&ine partiles onto t6e /reenland ie ap$ 36e eCplosion o& 5t$ 5aIama in 2re)on =(6i6 le&t
t6e aldera no( alled +rater .ake< in 4;03 B$+$ 6ad limati onseK8enes t6ro8)6o8t t6e
nort6ern 6emisp6ere$ St8dies o& 'olani e&&ets on t6e limate (ere on t6e in'esti)ati'e pat6
t6at e'ent8all7 led to t6e diso'er7 o& n8lear (inter$ 36e7 pro'ide important tests o& o8r 8se o&
omp8ter models to predit &8t8re limate 6an)e$ #olani partiles inHeted into t6e 8pper air
are also an additional a8se o& t6innin) o& t6e oIone la7er$
So a lar)e 'olani eCplosion in some 8n&reK8ented and obs8re part o& t6e (orld an alter
t6e en'ironment on a )lobal sale$ Bot6 in t6eir ori)ins and in t6eir e&&ets, 'olanos remind 8s
o& 6o( '8lnerable (e are to minor b8rps and sneeIes in t6e Eart6As internal metabolism, and
6o( important it is &or 8s to 8nderstand 6o( t6is s8bterranean 6eat en)ine (orks$
IN THE FINAL STAGES o& &ormation o& t6e Eart6Gas (ell as t6e 5oon, 5ars, and #en8sG
impats b7 small (orlds are t6o8)6t to 6a'e )enerated )lobal ma)ma oeans$ 5olten rok
&looded t6e pre-eCistin) topo)rap67$ /reat &loods, tidal (a'es kilometers 6i)6, o& &lo(in), red-
6ot liK8id ma)ma (elled 8p &rom t6e interior and po8red o'er t6e s8r&ae o& t6e planet, b8r7in)
e'er7t6in) in t6eir pat6: mo8ntains, 6annels, raters, per6aps e'en t6e last e'idene o& m86
earlier, more lement times$ 36e )eolo)ial odometer (as reset$ ,ll aessible reords o& s8r&ae
)eolo)7 be)in (it6 t6e last )lobal ma)ma &lood$ Be&ore t6e, ool and solidi&7, oeans o& la'a
ma7 be 68ndreds or e'en t6o8sands o& kilometers t6ik$ In o8r time, billions o& 7ears later, t6e
s8r&ae o& s86 a (orld ma7 be K8iet, inati'e, (it6 no 6int o& 8rrent '8lanism$ 2r t6ere ma7
beGas on Eart6Ga &e( small-sale b8t ati'e reminders o& an epo6 (6en t6e entire s8r&ae
(as &looded (it6 liK8id rok$
In t6e earl7 da7s o& planetar7 )eolo)7, )ro8nd-based telesopi obser'ations (ere all t6e
data (e 6ad$ , &er'ent debate 6ad been r8nnin) &or 6al& a ent8r7 on (6et6er t6e raters o& t6e
5oon (ere d8e to impats or 'olanos$ , &e( lo( mo8nds (it6 s8mmit alderas (ere &o8ndG
almost ertainl7 l8nar 'olanos$ B8t t6e bi) ratersGbo(l or pan-s6aped and sittin) on t6e &lat
)ro8nd and not t6e tops o& mo8ntainsG(ere a di&&erent stor7$ Some )eolo)ists sa( in t6em
similarities (it6 ertain 6i)6l7 eroded 'olanos on Eart6$ 2t6ers did not$ 36e best o8nter-
ar)8ment (as t6at (e kno( t6ere are asteroids and omets t6at &l7 past t6e 5oon? t6e7 m8st 6it
it sometimes? and t6e ollisions m8st make raters$ 2'er t6e 6istor7 o& t6e 5oon a lar)e n8mber
o& s86 raters s6o8ld 6a'e been p8n6ed o8t$ So i& t6e raters (e see are not d8e to impats,
(6ere t6en are t6e impat ratersD *e no( kno( &rom diret laborator7 eCamination o& l8nar
raters t6at t6e7 are almost entirel7 o& impat ori)in$ B8t 4 billion 7ears a)o t6is little (orld,
95
nearl7 dead toda7, (as b8bblin) and 68rnin) a(a7, dri'en b7 prime'al '8lanism &rom so8res
o& internal 6eat no( lon) )one$
In No'ember 1971, N,S,As Mariner 9 spaera&t arri'ed at 5ars to &ind t6e planet
ompletel7 obs8red b7 a )lobal d8st storm$ ,lmost t6e onl7 &eat8res to be seen (ere &o8r
ir8lar spots risin) o8t o& t6e reddis6 m8rk$ B8t t6ere (as somet6in) pe8liar abo8t t6em: 36e7
6ad 6oles in t6eir tops$ ,s t6e storm
leared, (e (ere able to see 8nmistakabl7 t6at (e 6ad been 'ie(in) &o8r 68)e 'olani
mo8ntains penetratin) t6ro8)6 t6e d8st lo8d, ea6 apped b7 a )reat s8mmit aldera$
,&ter t6e storm dissipated, t6e tr8e sale o& t6ese 'olanos beame lear$ 36e lar)estG
appropriatel7 named 2l7mp8s 5ons, or 5t$ 2l7mp8s, a&ter t6e 6ome o& t6e /reek )odsGis
more t6an "5 kilometers =ro8)6l7 15 miles< 6i)6, d(ar&in) not onl7 t6e lar)est 'olano on Eart6
b8t also t6e lar)est mo8ntain o& an7 sort, 5t$ E'erest, (6i6 stands 9 kilometers abo'e t6e
3ibetan platea8$ 36ere are some "0 lar)e 'olanos on 5ars, b8t none so massi'e as 2l7mp8s
5ons, (6i6 6as a 'ol8me abo8t 100 times t6at o& t6e lar)est 'olano on Eart6, 5a8na .oa in
4a(aii$
B7 o8ntin) t6e a8m8lated impat raters =made b7 small impatin) asteroids, and readil7
distin)8is6ed &rom s8mmit alderas< on t6e &lanks o& t6e 'olanos, estimates o& t6eir a)es an be
deri'ed$ Some 5artian 'olanos t8rn o8t to be a &e( billion 7ears old, alt6o8)6 none dates bak
to t6e 'er7 ori)in o& 5ars, abo8t 4$5 billion 7ears a)o$ Some, inl8din) 2l7mp8s 5ons, are
omparati'el7 ne(Gper6aps onl7 a &e( 68ndred million 7ears old$ It is lear t6at enormo8s
'olani eCplosions o8rred earl7 in 5artian 6istor7, per6aps pro'idin) an atmosp6ere m86
denser t6an t6e one 5ars 6olds toda7$ *6at (o8ld t6e plae 6a'e looked like i& (e 6ad 'isited it
t6enD
Some 'olani &lo(s on 5ars =&or eCample, in +erber8s< &ormed as reentl7 as "00 million
7ears a)o$ It is, I s8ppose, e'en possibleGalt6o8)6 t6ere is no e'idene eit6er (a7Gt6at
2l7mp8s 5ons, t6e lar)est 'olano (e kno( abo8t &or ertain in t6e Solar S7stem, (ill be ati'e
a)ain$ #olanolo)ists, a patient sort, (o8ld do8btless (elome t6e e'ent$
In 1990-93 t6e Magellan spaera&t ret8rned s8rprisin) radar data abo8t t6e land&orms o&
#en8s$ +arto)rap6ers prepared maps o& almost t6e entire planet, (it6 &ine detail do(n to abo8t
100 meters, t6e )oal-line-to-)oal-line distane in an ,merian &ootball stadi8m$ 5ore data (ere
radioed 6ome b7 Magellan t6an b7 all ot6er planetar7 missions ombined$ Sine m86 o& t6e
oean &loor remains 8neCplored =eCept per6aps &or still-lassi&ied data aK8ired b7 t6e 1$S$ and
So'iet na'ies<, (e ma7 kno( more abo8t t6e s8r&ae topo)rap67 o& #en8s t6an abo8t an7 ot6er
planet, Eart6 inl8ded$ 586 o& t6e )eolo)7 o& #en8s is 8nlike an7t6in) seen on Eart6 or
an7(6ere else$ 0lanetar7 )eolo)ists 6a'e )i'en t6ese land&orms names, b8t t6at doesnAt mean (e
&8ll7 8nderstand 6o( t6e7Are &ormed$
Bea8se t6e s8r&ae temperat8re o& #en8s is almost 470U+ =900U%<, t6e roks t6ere are
m86 loser to t6eir meltin) points t6an are t6ose at t6e s8r&ae o& t6e Eart6$ -oks be)in to
so&ten and &lo( at m86 s6allo(er dept6s on #en8s t6an on Eart6$ 36is is 'er7 likel7 t6e reason
t6at man7 )eolo)ial &eat8res on #en8s seem to be plasti and de&ormed$
96
36e planet is o'ered b7 'olani plains and 6i)6land platea8s$ 36e )eolo)ial onstr8ts
inl8de 'olani ones, probable s6ield 'olanos, and alderas$ 36ere are man7 plaes (6ere (e
an see t6at la'a 6as er8pted in 'ast &loods$ Some plains &eat8res ran)in) to o'er "00 kilometers
in siIe are pla7&8ll7 alled BtiksB and Bara6noidsB =(6i6 translates ro8)6l7 as Bspiderlike
t6in)sB<Gbea8se t6e7 are ir8lar depressions s8rro8nded b7 onentri rin)s, (6ile lon),
spindl7 s8r&ae raks eCtend radiall7 o8t &rom t6e enter$ 2dd, &lat Bpanake domesBGa
)eolo)ial &eat8re 8nkno(n on Eart6, b8t probabl7 a kind o& 'olanoGare per6aps &ormed b7
t6ik, 'iso8s la'a slo(l7 &lo(in) 8ni&orml7 in all diretions$ 36ere are man7 eCamples o& more
irre)8lar la'a &lo(s$ +8rio8s rin) str8t8res alled BoronaeB ran)e 8p to some ",000 kilometers
aross$ 36e distinti'e la'a &lo(s on sti&lin) 6ot #en8s o&&er 8p a ri6 men8 o& )eolo)ial
m7steries$
36e most 8neCpeted and pe8liar &eat8res are t6e sin8o8s 6annelsG(it6 meanders and
oCbo(s, lookin) H8st like ri'er 'alle7s on Eart6$ 36e lon)est are lon)er t6an t6e )reatest ri'ers on
Eart6$ B8t it is m86 too 6ot &or liK8id (ater on #en8s$ ,nd (e an tell &rom t6e absene o&
small impat raters t6at t6e atmosp6ere 6as been t6is t6ik, dri'in) as )reat a )reen6o8se e&&et,
&or as lon) as t6e present s8r&ae 6as been in eCistene$ =I& it 6ad been m86 t6inner,
intermediate-siIed asteroids (o8ld not 6a'e b8rned 8p on entr7 into t6e atmosp6ere, b8t (o8ld
6a'e s8r'i'ed to eCa'ate raters as t6e7 impat t6is planetAs s8r&ae$< .a'a &lo(in) do(n6ill
does make sin8o8s 6annels =sometimes 8nder t6e )ro8nd, &ollo(ed b7 ollapse o& t6e roo& o&
t6e 6annel<$ B8t e'en at t6e temperat8res o& #en8s, t6e la'as radiate 6eat, ool, slo(, on)eal,
and stop$ 36e ma)ma &reeIes solid$ .a'a 6annels annot )o e'en 10 perent o& t6e len)t6 o& t6e
lon) #en8s 6annels be&ore t6e7 solidi&7$ Some planetar7 )eolo)ists t6ink t6ere m8st be a speial
t6in, (ater7, in'isid la'a )enerated on #en8s$ B8t t6is is a spe8lation s8pported b7 no ot6er
data, and a on&ession o& o8r i)norane$
36e t6ik atmosp6ere mo'es sl8))is6l7? bea8se itAs so dense, t6o8)6, itAs 'er7 )ood at
li&tin) and mo'in) &ine partiles$ 36ere are (ind streaks on #en8s, lar)el7 emanatin) &rom
impat raters, in (6i6 t6e pre'ailin) (inds 6a'e so8red piles o& sand and d8st and pro'ided a
sort o& (eat6er 'ane imprinted on t6e s8r&ae$ 4ere and t6ere (e seem to see &ields o& sand
d8nes, and pro'ines (6ere (ind erosion 6as s8lpted 'olani land&orms$ 36ese aeolian
proesses take plae in slo( motion, as i& at t6e bottom o& t6e sea$ 36e (inds are &eeble at t6e
s8r&ae o& #en8s$ It ma7 take onl7 a so&t )8st to raise a lo8d o& &ine partiles, b8t in t6at sti&lin)
in&erno a )8st is 6ard to ome b7$
36ere are man7 impat raters on #en8s, b8t not6in) like t6e n8mber on t6e 5oon or 5ars$
+raters smaller t6an a &e( aross are oddl7 missin)$ 36e reason is 8nderstood: Small asteroids
and omets are broken 8p on entr7 into t6e dense #en8s atmosp6ere be&ore t6e7 an 6it t6e
s8r&ae$ 36e obser'ed 8to&& in rater siIe orresponds 'er7 (ell to t6e present densit7 o& t6e
atmosp6ere o& #en8s$ +ertain irre)8lar splot6es seen on t6e Magellan ima)es are t6o8)6t to be
t6e remains o& impators t6at broke 8p in t6e t6ik air be&ore t6e7 o8ld )o8)e o8t a rater$
5ost o& t6e impat raters are remarkabl7 pristine and (ell preser'ed? onl7 a &e( perent o&
t6em 6a'e been en)8l&ed b7 s8bseK8ent la'a &lo(s$ 36e s8r&ae o& #en8s as re'ealed b7
Magellan is 'er7 7o8n)$ 36ere are so &e( impat raters t6at e'er7t6in) older t6an abo8t 500
97
million 7ears
1
m8st 6a'e been eradiatedGon a planet almost ertainl7 4$5 billion 7ears old$
36ere is onl7 one pla8sible erosi'e a)ent adeK8ate &or (6at (e see: '8lanism$ ,ll o'er t6e
planet raters, mo8ntains, and ot6er )eolo)ial &eat8res 6a'e been in8ndated b7 seas o& la'a t6at
one (elled 8p &rom t6e inside, &lo(ed &ar, and &roIe$
,&ter eCaminin) so 7o8n) a s8r&ae o'ered (it6 on)ealed ma)ma, 7o8 mi)6t (onder i&
t6ere are an7 ati'e 'olanos le&t$ None 6as been &o8nd &or ertain, b8t t6ere are a &e(G&or
eCample, one alled 5aat 5onsGt6at appear to be s8rro8nded b7 &res6 la'a and (6i6 ma7
indeed still be 68rnin) and bel6in)$ 36ere is some e'idene t6at t6e ab8ndane o& s8l&8r
ompo8nds in t6e 6i)6 atmosp6ere 'aries (it6 time, as i& 'olanos at t6e s8r&ae (ere
episodiall7 inHetin) t6ese materials into t6e atmosp6ere$ *6en t6e 'olanos are K8iesent, t6e
s8l&8r ompo8nds simpl7 &all o8t o& t6e air$ 36ereAs also disp8ted e'idene o& li)6tnin) pla7in)
aro8nd t6e mo8ntaintops o& #en8s, as sometimes 6appens on ati'e 'olanos on Eart6$ B8t (e do
not kno( &or ertain (6et6er t6ere is on)oin) '8lanism on #en8s$ 36atAs a matter &or &8t8re
missions$
Some sientists belie'e t6at 8ntil abo8t 500 million 7ears a)o t6e #en8s s8r&ae (as almost
entirel7 de'oid o& land&orms$ Streams and oeans o& molten rok (ere relentlessl7 po8rin) o8t o&
t6e interior, &illin) in and o'erin) o'er an7 relie& t6at 6ad mana)ed to &orm$ 4ad 7o8
pl8mmeted do(n t6ro8)6 t6e lo8ds in t6at lon)-a)o time, t6e s8r&ae (o8ld 6a'e been nearl7
8ni&orm and &eat8reless$ ,t ni)6t t6e landsape (o8ld 6a'e been 6ellis6l7 )lo(in) &rom t6e red
6eat o& molten la'a$ In t6is 'ie(, t6e )reat internal 6eat en)ine o& #en8s, (6i6 s8pplied opio8s
amo8nts o& ma)ma to t6e s8r&ae 8ntil abo8t 500 million 7ears a)o, 6as no( t8rned o&&$ 36e
planetar7 6eat en)ine 6as &inall7 r8n do(n$
In anot6er pro'oati'e t6eoretial model, t6is one b7 t6e )eop67siist !onald 38rotte,
#en8s 6as plate tetonis like t6e Eart6As b8t it t8rns o&& and on$ -i)6t no(, 6e proposes, t6e
plate tetonis are o&&? BontinentsB do not mo'e alon) t6e s8r&ae, do not ras6 into one anot6er,
do not t6ereb7 raise mo8ntain ran)es, and are not later s8bd8ted into t6e deep interior$ ,&ter
68ndreds o& millions o& 7ears o& K8iesene, t6o8)6, plate tetonis al(a7s breaks o8t and
s8r&ae &eat8res are &looded b7 la'a, destro7ed b7 mo8ntain b8ildin), s8bd8ted, and ot6er(ise
obliterated$ 36e last s86 breako8t ended abo8t 500 million 7ears a)o, 38rotte s8))ests, and
e'er7t6in) 6as been
K8iet sine$ 4o(e'er, t6e presene o& oronae ma7 si)ni&7Gon timesales t6at are )eolo)iall7
in t6e near &8t8reGt6at massi'e 6an)es on t6e s8r&ae o& #en8s are abo8t to break o8t a)ain$
1
36e a)e o& t6e #en8s s8r&ae, as determined b7 Magellan radar ima)er7, p8ts an additional nail in t6e o&&in o& t6e t6esis o&
Imman8el #eliko'sk7G(6o aro8nd 1950 proposed, to s8rprisin) media alaim, t6at 3,500 7ears a)o >8piter spat o8t a )iant BometB
(6i6 made se'eral )raIin) ollisions (it6 t6e Eart6, a8sin) 'ario8s e'ents 6roniled in t6e anient books o& man7 peoples =s86
as t6e S8n standin) still on >os68aAs ommand<, and t6en trans&ormed itsel& into t6e planet #en8s$ 36ere ire still people NW 6o take
t6ese notions serio8sl7$
9;
EVEN MORE UNEXPECTED t6an t6e )reat 5artian 'olanos or t6e ma)ma-&looded s8r&ae o&
#en8s is (6at a(aited 8s (6en t6e Vo$ager 1 spaera&t eno8ntered lo, t6e innermost o& t6e
&o8r
lar)e /alilean moons o& >8piter, in 5ar6 1979$ 36ere (e &o8nd a stran)e, small, m8lti68ed
(orld positi'el7 a(as6 in 'olanos$ ,s (e (at6ed in astonis6ment, ei)6t ati'e pl8mes po8red
)as and &ine partiles 8p into t6e sk7$ 36e lar)est, no( alled 0eleGa&ter t6e 4a(aiian 'olano
)oddessGproHeted a &o8ntain o& material "50 kilometers into spae, 6i)6er abo'e t6e s8r&ae o&
Io t6an some astrona8ts 6a'e 'ent8red abo'e t6e Eart6$ B7 t6e time Vo$ager 2 arri'ed at Io, &o8r
mont6s later, 0ele 6ad t8rned itsel& o&&, alt6o8)6 siC o& t6e ot6er pl8mes (ere still ati'e, at least
one ne( pl8me 6ad been diso'ered, and anot6er aldera, named S8rt, 6ad 6an)ed its olor
dramatiall7$
36e olors o& Io, e'en t6o8)6 eCa))erated in N,S,As olor-en6aned ima)es, are like none
else(6ere in t6e Solar S7stem$ 36e 8rrentl7 &a'ored eCplanation is t6at t6e Ionian 'olanos are
dri'en not b7 8p(ellin) molten rok, as on t6e Eart6, t6e 5oon, #en8s, and 5ars, b8t b7
8p(ellin) s8l&8r dioCide and molten s8l&8r$ 36e s8r&ae is o'ered (it6 'olani mo8ntains,
'olani alderas, 'ents, and lakes o& molten s8l&8r$ #ario8s &orms and ompo8nds o& s8l&8r 6a'e
been deteted on t6e s8r&ae o& Io and in nearb7 spaeGt6e 'olanos blo( some o& t6e s8l&8r o&&
Io alto)et6er$
1
36ese &indin)s 6a'e s8))ested to some an 8nder)ro8nd sea o& liK8id s8l&8r t6at
iss8es to t6e s8r&ae at points o& (eakness, )enerates a s6allo( 'olani mo8nd, trikles
do(n6ill, and &reeIes, its &inal olor determined b7 its temperat8re on er8ption$
2n t6e 5oon or 5ars, 7o8 an &ind man7 plaes t6at 6a'e 6an)ed little in a billion 7ears$
2n Io, in a ent8r7, m86 o& t6e s8r&ae s6o8ld be re&looded, &illed in or (as6ed a(a7 b7 ne(
'olani &lo(s$ 5aps o& Io (ill t6en K8ikl7 beome obsolete, and arto)rap67 o& Io (ill 6a'e
beome a )ro(t6 ind8str7$
,ll t6is seems to &ollo( readil7 eno8)6 &rom t6e Vo$ager obser'ations$ 36e rate at (6i6 t6e
s8r&ae is o'ered o'er b7 8rrent 'olani &lo(s implies massi'e 6an)es in 50 or 100 7ears, a
predition t6at l8kil7 an be tested$ 36e Vo$ager ima)es o& to an be ompared (it6 m86
poorer ima)es taken b7 )ro8nd-based telesopes 50 7ears earlier, and b7 t6e 48bble Spae
3elesope 13 7ears later$ 36e s8rprisin) onl8sion seems to be t6at t6e bi) s8r&ae markin)s on
Io 6a'e 6ardl7 6an)ed at all$ +learl7, (eAre missin) somet6in)$
A VOLCANO in one sense represents t6e insides o& a planet )8s6in) o8t, a (o8nd t6at e'ent8all7
6eals itsel& b7 oolin), onl7 to be replaed b7 ne( sti)mata$ !i&&erent (orlds 6a'e di&&erent
insides$ 36e diso'er7 o& liK8id-s8l&8r '8lanism on Io (as a little like &indin) t6at an old
aK8aintane, (6en 8t, bleeds )reen$ :o8 6ad no idea s86 di&&erenes (ere possible$ 4e
seemed so ordinar7$
*e are nat8rall7 ea)er to &ind additional si)ns o& '8lanism on ot6er (orlds$ 2n E8ropa, t6e
1
IoAs 'olanos are also t6e opio8s so8re o& eletriall7 6ar)ed atoms s86 as oC7)en and s8l&8r t6at pop8late a )6ostl7, do8)6n8t-
s6aped t8be o& matter t6at s8rro8nds >8piter$
99
seond o& t6e /alilean moons o& >8piter and IoAs nei)6bor, t6ere are no 'olani mo8ntains at all?
b8t molten ieGliK8id (aterGseems to 6a'e )8s6ed to t6e s8r&ae t6ro8)6 an enormo8s n8mber
o& rissrossin) dark markin)s be&ore &reeIin)$ ,nd &8rt6er o8t, amon) t6e moons o& Sat8rn,
t6ere are si)ns t6at liK8id (ater 6as )8s6ed 8p &rom t6e interior and (iped a(a7 impat raters$
Still, (e 6a'e ne'er seen an7t6in) t6at mi)6t pla8sibl7 be an ie 'olano in eit6er t6e >8piter or
Sat8rn s7stems$ 2n 3riton, (e ma7 6a'e obser'ed nitro)en or met6ane '8lanism$
36e 'olanos o& ot6er (orlds pro'ide a stirrin) spetale$ 36e7 en6ane o8r sense o& (onder, o8r
Ho7 in t6e bea8t7 and di'ersit7 o& t6e +osmos$ B8t t6ese eCoti 'olanos per&orm anot6er ser'ie
as (ell: 36e7 6elp 8s to kno( t6e 'olanos o& o8r o(n (orldGand per6aps (ill 6elp one da7
e'en to predit t6eir er8ptions$ I& (e annot 8nderstand (6atAs 6appenin) in ot6er ir8mstanes,
(6ere t6e p67sial parameters are di&&erent, 6o( deep an o8r 8nderstandin) be o& t6e
ir8mstane o& most onern to 8sD , )eneral t6eor7 o& '8lanism m8st o'er all ases$ *6en
(e st8mble 8pon 'ast 'olani eminenes on a )eolo)iall7 K8iet 5ars? (6en (e diso'er t6e
s8r&ae o& #en8s (iped lean onl7 7esterda7 b7 &loods o& ma)ma? (6en (e &ind a (orld melted
not b7 t6e 6eat o& radioati'e dea7, as on Eart6, b8t b7 )ra'itational tides eCerted b7 nearb7
(orlds? (6en (e obser'e s8l&8r rat6er t6an siliate '8lanism? and (6en (e be)in to (onder, in
t6e moons o& t6e o8ter planets, (6et6er (e mi)6t be 'ie(in) (ater, ammonia, nitro)en, or
met6ane '8lanismGt6en (e are learnin) (6at else is possible$
100
C H A P T E R 13
34E /I%3 2%
,02..2

36e )ates o& 4ea'en are open (ide?
2&& I ride $ $ $
G+4A1 3@A1 N,33-IB13E! 32 +4A1 :1,N<,
B34E NINE S2N/S,B S2N/ #, B34E /-E,3 .2-! 2% .I#ESB
=+4IN,, +,$ 34I-! +EN31-: B$+$<
ItAs a s8ltr7 ni)6t in >8l7$ :o8A'e &allen asleep in t6e arm6air$ ,br8ptl7, 7o8 startle a(ake,
disoriented$ 36e tele'ision set is on, b8t not t6e so8nd$ :o8 strain to 8nderstand (6at 7o8Are
seein)$ 3(o )6ostl7 (6ite &i)8res in o'eralls and 6elmets are so&tl7 danin) 8nder a pit6-
blak sk7$ 36e7 make stran)e little skippin) motions, (6i6 propel t6em 8p(ard amid barel7
pereptible lo8ds o& d8st$ B8t somet6in) is (ron)$ 36e7 take too lon) to ome do(n$
En8mbered as t6e7 are, t6e7 seem to be &l7in) a little$ :o8 r8b 7o8r e7es, b8t t6e dreamlike
tablea8 persists$
2& all t6e e'ents s8rro8ndin) Apollo 11As landin) on t6e 5oon on >8l7 "0, 1969, m7 most
'i'id reolletion is its 8nreal K8alit7$ Neil ,rmstron) and B8II ,ldrin s68&&led alon) t6e )ra7,
d8st7 l8nar s8r&ae, t6e Eart6 loomin) lar)e in t6eir sk7, (6ile 5i6ael +ollins, no( t6e 5oonAs
o(n moon, orbited abo'e t6em in lonel7 'i)il$ :es, it (as an astonis6in) te6nolo)ial
a6ie'ement and a tri8mp6 &or t6e 1nited States$ :es, t6e astrona8ts displa7ed deat6-de&7in)
o8ra)e$ :es, as ,rmstron) said as 6e &irst ali)6ted, t6is (as a 6istori step &or t6e 68man
speies$ B8t i& 7o8 t8rned o&& t6e b7-pla7 bet(een 5ission +ontrol and t6e Sea o& 3ranK8ilit7,
101
(it6 its deliberatel7 m8ndane and ro8tine 6atter, and stared into t6at blak-and-(6ite tele'ision
monitor, 7o8 o8ld )limpse t6at (e 68mans 6ad entered t6e realm o& m7t6 and le)end$
*e kne( t6e 5oon &rom o8r earliest da7s$ It (as t6ere (6en o8r anestors desended &rom
t6e trees into t6e sa'anna6s, (6en (e learned to (alk 8pri)6t, (6en (e &irst de'ised stone tools,
(6en (e domestiated &ire, (6en (e in'ented a)ri8lt8re and b8ilt ities and set o8t to s8bd8e
t6e Eart6$ %olklore and pop8lar son)s elebrate a m7sterio8s onnetion bet(een t6e 5oon and
lo'e$ 36e (ord Bmont6B and t6e seond da7 o& t6e (eek are bot6 named a&ter t6e 5oon$ Its
(aCin) and (anin)G&rom resent to &8ll to resent to ne(G(as (idel7 8nderstood as a
elestial metap6or o& deat6 and rebirt6$ It (as onneted (it6 t6e o'8lation 7le o& (omen,
(6i6 6as nearl7 t6e same periodGas t6e (ord Bmenstr8ationB =.atin meni X mont6, &rom t6e
(ord Bto meas8reB< reminds 8s$ 36ose (6o sleep in moonli)6t )o mad? t6e onnetion is
preser'ed in t6e En)lis6 (ord Bl8nati$B In t6e old 0ersian stor7, a 'iIier reno(ned &or 6is
(isdom is asked (6i6 is more 8se&8l, t6e S8n or t6e 5oon$ B36e 5oon,B 6e ans(ers, Bbea8se
t6e S8n s6ines in da7time (6en itAs li)6t o8t an7(a7$B Espeiall7 (6en (e li'ed o8t-o&-doors, it
(as a maHorGi& oddl7 intan)ibleGpresene in o8r li'es$
36e 5oon (as a metap6or &or t6e 8nattainable: B:o8 pli)6t as (ell ask &or t6e 5oon,B t6e7
8sed to sa7$ 2r B:o8 an no more do t6at t6an &l7 to t6e 5oon$B %or most o& o8r 6istor7, e'e 6ad
no idea (6at it (as$ , spiritD , )odD , t6in)D It didnAt look like somet6in) bi) &ar a(a7, b8t
more like somet6in) small nearb7Gsomet6in) t6e siIe o& a plate, ma7be, 6an)in) in t6e sk7 a
little abo'e o8r 6eads$ ,nient /reek p6ilosop6ers debated t6e proposition Bt6at t6e 5oon is
eCatl7 as lar)e as it looksB =betra7in) a 6opeless on&8sion bet(een linear and an)8lar siIe<$
:alking on t6e 5oon (o8ld 6a'e seemed a sre(ball idea? it made more sense to ima)ine
some6o( limbin) 8p into t6e sk7 on a ladder or on t6e bak o& a )iant bird, )rabbin) t6e 5oon,
and brin)in) it do(n to Eart6$ Nobod7 e'er s8eeded, alt6o8)6 t6ere (ere m7t6s aplent7 abo8t
6eroes (6o 6ad tried$
Not 8ntil a &e( ent8ries a)o did t6e idea o& t6e 5oon as a plae, a K8arter-million miles
a(a7, )ain (ide 8rren7$ ,nd in t6at brie& &liker o& time, (eA'e )one &rom t6e earliest steps in
8nderstandin) t6e 5oonAs nat8re to (alkin) and Ho7-ridin) on its s8r&ae$ *e al8lated 6o(
obHets mo'e in spae? liK8e&ied oC7)en &rom t6e air? in'ented bi) rokets, telemetr7, reliable
eletronis, inertial )8idane, and m86 else$ 36en (e sailed o8t into t6e sk7$
I (as l8k7 eno8)6 to be in'ol'ed in t6e Apollo pro)ram, b8t I donAt blame people (6o t6ink
t6e (6ole t6in) (as &aked in a 4oll7(ood mo'ie st8dio$ In t6e late -oman Empire, pa)an
p6ilosop6ers 6ad attaked +6ristian dotrine on t6e asension to 4ea'en o& t6e bod7 o& +6rist
and on t6e promised bodil7 res8rretion o& t6e deadGbea8se t6e &ore o& )ra'it7 p8lls do(n all
Beart6l7 bodies$B St$ ,8)8stine reHoined: BI& 68man skill an b7 some ontri'ane &abriate
'essels t6at &loat, o8t o& metals (6i6 sink$ $ $ 6o( m86 more redible is it t6at /od, b7 some
6idden mode o& operation, s6o8ld e'en more ertainl7 e&&et t6at t6ese eart6l7 masses be
emanipatedB &rom t6e 6ains t6at bind t6em to Eart6D 36at (uman s6o8ld one da7 diso'er
s86 a Bmode o& operationB (as be7ond ima)inin)$ %i&teen 68ndred 7ears later, (e emanipated
o8rsel'es$
36e a6ie'ement eliited an amal)am o& a(e and onern$ Some remembered t6e stor7 o&
t6e 3o(er o& Babel$ Some, ort6odoC 5oslems amon) t6em, &elt settin) &oot on t6e 5oonAs
s8r&ae to be imp8dene and sarile)e$ 5an7 )reeted it as a t8rnin) point in 6istor7$
10"
36e 5oon is no lon)er 8nattainable$ , doIen 68mans, all ,merians, 6a'e made t6ose odd
bo8ndin) motions t6e7 alled Bmoon(alksB on t6e r8n67, ratered, anient )ra7 la'aG
be)innin) on t6at >8l7 da7 in 1969$ B8t sine 197", no one &rom an7 nation 6as 'ent8red bak$
Indeed, none o& 8s 6as )one an$<(ere sine t6e )lor7 da7s o& Apollo eCept into lo( Eart6 orbit
Glike a toddler (6o takes a &e( tentati'e steps o8t(ard and t6en, breat6less, retreats to t6e
sa&et7 o& 6is mot6erAs skirts$
2ne 8pon a time, (e soared into t6e Solar S7stem$ %or a &e( 7ears$ 36en (e 68rried bak$
*67D *6at 6appenedD *6at (as Apollo reall7 abo8tD
36e sope and a8dait7 o& >o6n Eenned7As 5a7 "5, 1961 messa)e to a Hoint session o&
+on)ress on B1r)ent National NeedsBGt6e spee6 t6at la8n6ed t6e ,pollo pro)ramGdaIIled
me$ *e (o8ld 8se rokets not 7et desi)ned and allo7s not 7et onei'ed, na'i)ation and dokin)
s6emes not 7et de'ised, in order to send a man to an 8nkno(n (orldGa (orld not 7et eCplored,
not e'en in a preliminar7 (a7, not e'en b7 robotsGand (e (o8ld brin) 6im sa&el7 bak, and (e
(o8ld do it be&ore t6e deade (as o'er$ 36is on&ident prono8nement (as made be&ore an7
,merian 6ad e'en a6ie'ed Eart6 orbit$
,s a ne(l7 minted 06$!$, I at8all7 t6o8)6t all t6is 6ad somet6in) entrall7 to do (it6
siene$ B8t t6e 0resident did not talk abo8t diso'erin) t6e ori)in o& t6e 5oon, or e'en abo8t
brin)in) samples o& it bak &or st8d7$ ,ll 6e seemed to be interested in (as sendin) someone
t6ere and brin)in) 6im 6ome$ It (as a kind o& ge"ure3 Eenned7As siene ad'isor, >erome
*iesner, later told me 6e 6ad made a deal (it6 t6e 0resident: !5 Eenned7 (o8ld not laim t6at
,pollo (as abo8t siene, t6en 6e$ *iesner, (o8ld s8pport it$ So i5 not siene, (6atD
36e ,pollo pro)ram is reall7 abo8t politis, ot6ers told me$ 36is so8nded more promisin)$
Nonali)ned nations (o8ld be tempted to dri&t to(ard t6e So'iet 1nion i& it (as a6ead in spae
eCploration, i& t6e 1nited States s6o(ed ins8&&iient Bnational 'i)or$B I didnAt &ollo($ 4ere (as
t6e 1nited States, a6ead o& t6e So'iet 1nion in 'irt8all7 e'er7 area o& te6nolo)7Gt6e (orldAs
eonomi, militar7, and, on oasion, e'en moral leaderGand Indonesia (o8ld )o +omm8nist
bea8se :8ri /a)arin beat >o6n /lenn to Eart6 orbitD *6atAs so speial abo8t spae te6nolo)7D
S8ddenl7 I 8nderstood$
Sendin) people to orbit t6e Eart6 or robots to orbit t6e S8n reK8ires roketsGbi), reliable,
po(er&8l rokets$ 36ose same rokets an be 8sed &or n8lear (ar$ 36e same te6nolo)7 t6at
transports a man to t6e 5oon an arr7 n8lear (ar6eads 6al&(a7 aro8nd t6e (orld$ 36e same
te6nolo)7 t6at p8ts an astronomer and a telesope in Eart6 orbit an also p8t 8p a laser Bbattle
station$B E'en bak t6en, t6ere (as &ani&8l talk in militar7 irles, East and *est, abo8t spae
as t6e ne( B6i)6 )ro8nd,B abo8t t6e nation t6at BontrolledB spae Bontrollin)B t6e Eart6$ 2&
o8rse strate)i rokets (ere alread7 bein) tested on Eart6$ B8t 6ea'in) a ballisti missile (it6 a
d8mm7 (ar6ead into a tar)et Ione in t6e middle o& t6e 0ai&i 2ean doesnAt b87 m86 )lor7$
Sendin) people into spae apt8res t6e attention and Ima)ination o& t6e (orld$
:o8 (o8ldnAt spend t6e mone7 to la8n6 astrona8ts &or t6is reason alone, b8t o& all t6e
(a7s o& demonstratin) roket poten7, t6is one (orks best$ It (as a rite o& national man6ood?
t6e s6ape o& t6e boosters made t6is point readil7 8nderstood (it6o8t an7one at8all7 6a'in) to
eCplain it$ 36e omm8niation seemed to be transmitted &rom 8nonsio8s mind to 8nonsio8s
mind (it6o8t t6e 6i)6er mental &a8lties at6in) a (6i&& o& (6at (as )oin) on$
103
57 ollea)8es toda7Gstr8))lin) &or e'er7 spae siene dollarGma7 6a'e &or)otten 6o(
eas7 it (as to )et mone7 &or BspaeB in t6e )lor7 da7s o& ,pollo and H8st be&ore$ 2& man7
eCamples, onsider t6is eC6an)e be&ore t6e !e&ense ,ppropriations S8bommittee o& t6e 4o8se
o& -epresentati'es in 195;, onl7 a &e( mont6s a&ter Spu"nik 1$ ,ir %ore ,ssistant Seretar7
-i6ard E$ 4orner is testi&7in)? 6is interlo8tor is -ep$ !aniel >$ %lood =!emorat o&
0enns7l'ania<:
42-NE-: Q*R67 is it desirable &rom t6e militar7 point o& 'ie( to 6a'e a man on t6e moonD
0artl7, &rom t6e lassi point o& 'ie(, bea8se it is t6ere$ 0artl7 bea8se (e mi)6t be
a&raid t6at t6e 1$S$S$-$ mi)6t )et one t6ere &irst and realiIe ad'anta)es (6i6 (e 6ad
not antiipated eCisted t6ere $ $ $
%.22!: QIR& (e )a'e 7o8 all t6e mone7 7o8 said (as neessar7, re)ardless o& 6o( m86 it
(as, an 7o8 in t6e ,ir %ore 6it t6e moon (it6 somet6in), an7t6in), be&ore
+6ristmasD
42-NE-: I &eel s8re (e an$ 36ere is al(a7s a ertain amo8nt o& risk in t6is kind o&
8ndertakin), b8t (e &eel t6at (e an do t6at? 7es, sir$
%.22!: 4a'e 7o8 asked an7bod7 in t6e ,ir %ore or t6e !epartment o& !e&ense to )i'e
7o8 eno8)6 mone7,
6ard(are, and people, startin) at midni)6t toni)6t, to 6ip a$ piee o8t o& t6at ball o&
)reen 6eese &or a +6ristmas present to 1nle SamD 4a'e 7o8 asked &or t6atD
42-NE-: *e 6a'e s8bmitted s86 a pro)ram to t6e 2&&ie o& t6e Seretar7 o& !e&ense$ It
is 8rrentl7 8nder onsideration$
%.22!: I am &or )i'in) it to t6em as o& t6is min8te, 5r$ +6airman, (it6 o8r s8pplemental,
(it6o8t (aitin) &or somebod7 do(nto(n to make 8p 6is mind to ask &or it$ I& t6is man
means (6at 6e sa7s and i& 6e kno(s (6at 6e is talkin) abo8tGand I t6ink 6e doesG
t6en t6is ommittee s6o8ld not (ait &i'e min8tes more toda7$ *e s6o8ld )i'e 6im all
t6e mone7 and all t6e 6ard(are and all t6e people 6e (ants, re)ardless o& (6at
an7bod7 else sa7s or (ants, and tell 6im to )o 8p on top o& some 6ill and do it (it6o8t
an7 K8estion$
*6en 0resident Eenned7 &orm8lated t6e ,pollo pro)ram, t6e !e&ense !epartment 6ad a
sle( o& spae proHets 8nder de'elopmentG(a7s o& arr7in) militar7 personnel 8p into spae,
means o& on'e7in) t6em aro8nd t6e Eart6, robot (eapons on orbitin) plat&orms intended to
s6oot do(n satellites and ballisti missiles o& ot6er nations$ Apollo s8pplanted t6ese pro)rams$
36e7 ne'er rea6ed operational stat8s$ , ase an be made t6en t6at ,pollo ser'ed anot6er
p8rposeGto mo'e t6e 1$S$GSo'iet spae ompetition &rom a militar7 to a i'ilian arena$ 36ere
are some (6o belie'e t6at Eenned7 intended Apollo as a s8bstit8te &or an an8s rae in spae$
5a7be$
%or me, t6e most ironi token o& t6at moment in 6istor7 is t6e plaK8e si)ned b7 0resident
-i6ard 5$ NiCon t6at Apollo 11 took to t6e 5oon$ It reads: B*e ame in peae &or all
104
mankind$B ,s t6e 1nited States (as droppin) 7M me)atons o& on'entional eCplosi'es on small
nations in So8t6east ,sia, (e on)rat8lated o8rsel'es on o8r 68manit7: *e (o8ld 6arm no one
on a li&eless rok$ 36at plaK8e is t6ere still, atta6ed to t6e base o& t6e ,pollo 11 .8nar 5od8le,
on t6e airless desolation o& t6e Sea o& 3ranK8ilit7$ I& no one dist8rbs it, it (ill still be readable a
million 7ears &rom no($
SiC more missions &ollo(ed Apollo 11, all b8t one o& (6i6 s8ess&8ll7 landed on t6e l8nar
s8r&ae$ ,pollo 17 (as t6e &irst to arr7 a sientist$ ,s soon as 6e )ot t6ere, t6e pro)ram (as
aneled$ 36e &irst sientist and t6e last 68man to land on t6e 5oon (ere t6e same person$ 36e
pro)ram 6ad alread7 ser'ed its p8rpose t6at >8l7 ni)6t in 1969$ 36e 6al&-doIen s8bseK8ent
missions (ere H8st moment8m$
Apollo (as not mainl7 abo8t siene$ It (as not e'en mainl7 abo8t spae$ Apollo (as abo8t
ideolo)ial on&rontation and n8lear (arGo&ten desribed b7 s86 e8p6emisms as (orld
Bleaders6ipB and national Bpresti)e$B Ne'ert6eless, )ood spae siene (as done$ *e no( kno(
m86 more abo8t t6e omposition, a)e, and 6istor7 o& t6e 5oon and t6e ori)in o& t6e l8nar
land&orms$ *e 6a'e made pro)ress in 8nderstandin) (6ere t6e 5oon ame &rom$ Some o& 8s
6a'e 8sed l8nar raterin) statistis to better 8nderstand t6e Eart6 at t6e time o& t6e ori)in o& li&e$
B8t more important t6an an7 o& t6is, Apollo pro'ided an ae)is, an 8mbrella 8nder (6i6
brilliantl7 en)ineered robot spaera&t (ere dispat6ed t6ro8)6o8t t6e Solar S7stem, makin) t6at
preliminar7 reonnaissane o& doIens o& (orlds$ 36e o&&sprin) o& Apollo 6a'e no( rea6ed t6e
planetar7 &rontiers$
I& not &or ApolloGand, t6ere&ore, i& not &or t6e politial p8rpose it ser'edGI do8bt (6et6er
t6e 6istori ,merian eCpeditions o& eCploration and diso'er7 t6ro8)6o8t t6e Solar S7stem
(o8ld 6a'e o8rred, 36e Mariner9 Viking9 Pioneer9 Vo$ager 9and %alileo are amon) t6e
)i&ts o& ,pollo$ Magellan and #aini are more distant desendants$ Somet6in) similar is tr8e &or
t6e pioneerin) So'iet e&&orts in Solar S7stem eCploration, inl8din) t6e &irst so&t landin)s o&
robot spaera&t@&una 99 Mar '9 Venera 8-on ot6er (orlds$
Apollo on'e7ed a on&idene, ener)7, and breadt6 o& 'ision t6at did apt8re t6e
ima)ination o& t6e (orld$ 36at too (as part o& its p8rpose$ It inspired an optimism abo8t
te6nolo)7, an ent68siasm &or t6e &8t8re$ I& (e o8ld &l7 to t6e 5oon, as so man7 6a'e asked,
(6at else (ere (e apable o&D E'en t6ose (6o opposed t6e poliies and ations o& t6e 1nited
StatesGe'en t6ose (6o t6o8)6t t6e (orst o& 8sGakno(led)ed t6e )eni8s and 6eroism o& t6e
Apollo pro)ram$ *it6 Apollo, t6e 1nited States to86ed )reatness$
*6en 7o8 pak 7o8r ba)s &or a bi) trip, 7o8 ne'er kno( (6atAs in store &or 7o8$ 36e Apollo
astrona8ts on t6eir (a7 to and &rom t6e 5oon p6oto)rap6ed t6eir 6ome planet$ It (as a nat8ral
t6in) to do, b8t it 6ad onseK8enes t6at &e( &oresa($ %or t6e &irst time, t6e in6abitants o& Eart6
o8ld see t6eir (orld &rom abo'eGt6e (6ole Eart6, t6e Eart6 in olor, t6e Eart6 as an eCK8isite
spinnin) (6ite and bl8e ball set a)ainst t6e 'ast darkness o& spae$ 36ose ima)es 6elped a(aken
o8r sl8mberin) planetar7 onsio8sness$ 36e7 pro'ide inontestable e'idene t6at (e all s6are
t6e same '8lnerable planet$ 36e7 remind 8s o& (6at is important and (6at is not$ 36e7 (ere t6e
6arbin)ers o& Vo$ager6 pale bl8e dot$
*e ma7 6a'e &o8nd t6at perspeti'e H8st in time, H8st as o8r te6nolo)7 t6reatens t6e
6abitabilit7 o& o8r (orld$ *6ate'er t6e reason (e &irst m8stered t6e Apollo pro)ram, 6o(e'er
mired it (as in +old *ar nationalism and t6e instr8ments o& deat6, t6e inesapable reo)nition
105
o& t6e 8nit7 and &ra)ilit7 o& t6e Eart6 is its lear and l8mino8s di'idend, t6e 8neCpeted &inal )i&t
o& Apollo$ *6at be)an in deadl7 ompetition 6as 6elped 8s to see t6at )lobal ooperation is t6e
essential preondition &or o& s8r'i'al$
3ra'el is broadenin)$
ItAs time to 6it t6e road a)ain$
+ 4 , 0 3 E - 14
E90.2-IN/
234E- *2-.!S
,N! 0-23E+3IN/
34IS 2NE
36e planets, in t6eir 'ario8s sta)es o& de'elopment, are s8bHeted to t6e
same
&ormati'e &ores t6at operate on o8r eart6, and 6a'e, t6ere&ore, t6e same
)eolo)i &ormation, and probabl7 li&e, o& o8r o(n past, and per6aps &8t8re? b8t$
&8rt6er t6an t6is, t6ese &ores are atin), in some ases, 8nder totall7 di&&erent
onditions &rom t6ose 8nder (6i6 t6e7 operate on t6e eart6, and 6ene
m8st e'ol'e &orms di&&erent &rom t6ose e'er kno(n to man$ 36e 'al8e o& s86
material as t6is to t6e omparati'e sienes is too ob'io8s to need dis8ssion$
G-2BE-3 4$ /2!!,-!, N23EB22E =1907<
%or t6e &irst time in m7 li&e, I sa( t6e 6oriIon as a 8r'ed
line$
It (as aent8ated b7 a t6in seam o& dark bl8e li)6t-o8r atmosp6ere$
2b'io8sl7, t6is (as not t6e BoeanB o& air I 6ad been told it (as
so man7 times in m7 li&e$ I (as terri&ied b7 its &ra)ile appearane$
G1.% 5E-B2.!, /E-5,N S0,+E S4133.E ,S3-2N,13 =19;;<
106
W6en 7o8 look do(n at t6e Eart6 &rom orbital altit8des, 7o8 see a lo'el7, &ra)ile (orld
embedded in blak 'a88m$ B8t peerin) at a piee o& t6e Eart6 t6ro8)6 a spaera&t port6ole is
not6in) like t6e Ho7 o& seein) it entire a)ainst t6e bakdrop o& blak, orGbetterGs(eepin)
aross 7o8r &ield o& 'ie( as 7o8 &loat in spae 8nen8mbered b7 a spaera&t$ 36e &irst 68man
to 6a'e t6is eCperiene (as ,leCei .eono', (6o on 5ar6 1;, 1965, le&t Vok(o) 2 in t6e
ori)inal spae B(alkB: BI looked do(n at t6e Eart6,B 6e realls, Band t6e &irst t6o8)6t t6at
rossed m7 mind (as V36e (orld is ro8nd, a&ter all$A In one )lane I o8ld see &rom /ibraltar to
t6e +aspian Sea $ $ $ I &elt like a birdG(it6 (in)s, and able to &l7$B
*6en 7o8 'ie( t6e Eart6 &rom &art6er a(a7, as t6e ,pollo astrona8ts did, it s6rinks in
apparent siIe, 8ntil not6in) b8t a little )eo)rap67 remains$ :o8Are str8k b7 6o( sel&-ontained it
is$ ,n oasional 67dro)en atom lea'es? a pitter-patter o& ometar7 d8st arri'es$ S8nli)6t,
)enerated in t6e immense, silent t6ermon8lear en)ine deep in t6e solar interior, po8rs o8t o& t6e
S8n in all diretions, and t6e Eart6 interepts eno8)6 o& it to pro'ide a little ill8mination and
eno8)6 6eat &or o8r modest p8rposes$ ,part &rom t6at, t6is small (orld is on its o(n$
%rom t6e s8r&ae o& t6e 5oon 7o8 an see it, per6aps as a resent, e'en its ontinents no(
indistint$ ,nd &rom t6e 'anta)e point o& t6e o8termost planet it is a mere point o& pale li)6t$
%rom Eart6 orbit, 7o8 are str8k b7 t6e tender bl8e ar o& t6e 6oriIonGt6e Eart6As t6in
atmosp6ere seen tan)entiall7$ :o8 an 8nderstand (67 t6ere is no lon)er s86 a t6in) as a loal
en'ironmental problem$ 5ole8les are st8pid$ Ind8strial poisons, )reen6o8se )ases, and
s8bstanes t6at attak t6e proteti'e oIone la7er, bea8se o& t6eir ab7smal i)norane, do not
respet borders$ 36e7 are obli'io8s o& t6e notion o& national so'erei)nt7$ ,nd so, d8e to t6e
almost m7t6i po(ers o& o8r te6nolo)7 =and t6e pre'alene o& s6ort-term t6inkin)<, (e are
be)innin)Gon +ontinental and on planetar7 salesGto pose a dan)er to o8rsel'es$ 0lainl7, i&
t6ese problems are to be sol'ed, it (ill reK8ire man7 nations atin) in onert o'er man7 7ears$
IAm str8k a)ain b7 t6e iron7 t6at spae&li)6tGonei'ed in tile a8ldron o& nationalist
ri'alries and 6atredsGbrin)s (it6 it a st8nnin) transnational 'ision$ :o8 spend e'en a little time
ontemplatin) t6e Eart6 &rom orbit and t6e most deepl7 en)rained nationalisms be)in to erode$
36e7 seem t6e sK8abbles o& mites on a pl8m$
I& (eAre st8k on one (orld, (eAre limited to a sin)le ase? (e donAt kno( (6at else is
possible$ 36enGlike an art &anier &amiliar onl7 (it6 %a7o8m tomb paintin)s, a dentist (6o
kno(s onl7 molars, a p6ilosop6er trained merel7 in Neo0latonism, a lin)8ist (6o 6as st8died
onl7 +6inese, or a p67siist (6ose kno(led)e o& )ra'it7 is restrited to &allin) bodies on Eart6
Go8r perspeti'e is &ores6ortened, o8r insi)6ts narro(, o8r prediti'e abilities ir8msribed$
B7 ontrast, (6en (e eCplore ot6er (orlds, (6at one seemed t6e onl7 (a7 a planet o8ld be
t8rns o8t to be some(6ere in t6e middle ran)e o& a 'ast spetr8m o& possibilities$ *6en (e look
at t6ose ot6er (orlds, (e be)in to 8nderstand (6at 6appens (6en (e 6a'e too m86 o& one
t6in) or too little o& anot6er$ *e learn 6o( a planet an )o (ron)$ *e )ain a ne( 8nderstandin),
&oreseen b7 t6e spae&li)6t pioneer -obert /oddard, alled omparati'e planetolo)7$
36e eCploration o& ot6er (orlds 6as opened o8r e7es in t6e st8d7 o& 'olanos, eart6K8akes,
107
and (eat6er$ It ma7 one da7 6a'e pro&o8nd impliations &or biolo)7, bea8se all li&e on Eart6 is
b8ilt on a ommon bio6emial master plan$ 36e diso'er7 o& a sin)le eCtraterrestrial or)anism
Ge'en somet6in) as 68mble as a bateri8mG(o8ld re'ol8tioniIe o8r 8nderstandin) o& li'in)
t6in)s$ B8t t6e onnetion bet(een eCplorin) ot6er (orlds and protetin) t6is one is most
e'ident in t6e st8d7 o& Eart6As limate and t6e b8r)eonin) t6reat to t6at limate t6at o8r
te6nolo)7 poses$ 2t6er (orlds pro'ide 'ital insi)6ts abo8t (6at d8mb t6in)s not to do on
Eart6$
36ree potential en'ironmental atastrop6esGall operatin) on a )lobal saleG6a'e reentl7
been 8no'ered: oIone la7er depletion, )reen6o8se (armin), and n8lear (inter$ ,ll t6ree
diso'eries, it t8rns o8t, 6a'e stron) ties to t6e eCploration o& t6e planets$
=1< It (as dist8rbin) to &ind t6at an inert material (it6 all sorts o& pratial appliationsGit
ser'es as t6e (orkin) &l8id in re&ri)erators and air onditioners, as aerosol propellant &or
deodorants and ot6er prod8ts, as li)6t(ei)6t &oam7 paka)in) &or &ast &oods, and as a leanin)
a)ent in miroeletronis, to name onl7 a &e(-an pose a dan)er to li&e on Eart6$ *6o (o8ld
6a'e &i)8redD
36e mole8les in K8estion are alled 6loro&l8oroarbons =+%+s<$ +6emiall7, t6e7Are
eCtremel7 inert, (6i6 means t6e7Are in'8lnerableG8ntil t6e7 &ind t6emsel'es 8p in t6e oIone
la7er, (6ere t6e7Are broken apart b7 8ltra'iolet li)6t &rom t6e S8n$ 36e 6lorine atoms t68s
liberated attak and break do(n t6e proteti'e oIone, lettin) more 8ltra'iolet li)6t rea6 t6e
)ro8nd$ 36is inreased 8ltra'iolet intensit7 8s6ers in a )6astl7 proession o& potential
onseK8enes in'ol'in) not H8st skin aner and atarats, b8t (eakenin) o& t6e 68man imm8ne
s7stem and, most dan)ero8s o& all, possible 6arm to a)ri8lt8re and to p6otos7nt6eti or)anisms
at t6e base o& t6e &ood 6ain on (6i6 most li&e on Eart6 depends$
*6o diso'ered t6at +%+s posed a t6reat to t6e oIone la7erD *as it t6e prinipal
man8&at8rer, t6e !80ont +orporation, eCerisin) orporate responsibilit7D *as it t6e
En'ironmental 0rotetion ,)en7 protetin) 8sD *as it t6e !epartment o& !e&ense de&endin)
8sD No, it (as t(o I'or7-to(er, (6ite-oated 8ni'ersit7 sientists (orkin) on somet6in) elseG
S6er(ood -o(land and 5ario 5olina o& t6e 1ni'ersit7 o& +ali&ornia, Ir'ine$ Not e'en an I'7
.ea)8e 8ni'ersit7$ No one instr8ted t6em to look &or dan)ers to t6e en'ironment$ 36e7 (ere
p8rs8in) &8ndamental resear6$ 36e7 (ere sientists &ollo(in) t6eir o(n interests$ 36eir names
s6o8ld be kno(n to e'er7 s6ool6ild$
In t6eir ori)inal al8lations, -o(land and 5olina 8sed rate onstants o& 6emial reations
in'ol'in) 6lorine and ot6er 6alo)ens t6at 6ad been meas8red in part (it6 N,S, s8pport$ *67
N,S,D Bea8se #en8s 6as 6lorine and &l8orine mole8les in its atmosp6ere, and planetar7
aeronomers 6ad (anted to 8nderstand (6atAs 6appenin) t6ere$
+on&irmin) t6eoretial (ork on t6e role o& +%+s in oIone depletion (as soon done b7 a
)ro8p led b7 5i6ael 5Elro7 at 4ar'ard 4o( is it t6e7 6ad all t6ese bran6in) net(orks o&
6alo)en 6emial kinetis in t6eir omp8ter read7 to )oD Bea8se t6e7 (ere (orkin) on t6e
6lorine and &l8orine 6emistr7 o& t6e atmosp6ere o& #en8s$ #en8s 6elped make and 6elped
on&irm t6e diso'er7 t6at t6e Eart6As oIone la7er is in dan)er$ ,n entirel7 8neCpeted
onnetion (as &o8nd bet(een t6e atmosp6eri p6oto6emistries o& t6e t(o planets$ , res8lt o&
importane to e'er7one on Eart6 emer)ed &rom (6at mi)6t (ell 6a'e seemed t6e most bl8e-sk7,
10;
abstrat, impratial kind o& (ork, 8nderstandin) t6e 6emistr7 o& minor onstit8ents in t6e
8pper atmosp6ere o& anot6er (orld$
36ereAs also a 5ars onnetion$ *it6 Viking (e &o8nd t6e s8r&ae o& 5ars to be apparentl7
li&eless and remarkabl7 de&iient e'en in simple or)ani mole8les$ B8t simple or)ani
mole8les o8)6t to be t6ere, bea8se o& t6e impat o& or)ani-ri6 meteorites &rom t6e nearb7
asteroid belt$ 36is de&iien7 is (idel7 attrib8ted to t6e lak o& oIone on 5ars$ 36e Viking
mirobiolo)7 eCperiments &o8nd t6at or)ani matter arried &rom Eart6 to 5ars and sprinkled on
5artian s8r&ae d8st is K8ikl7 oCidiIed arid destro7ed$ 36e materials in t6e d8st t6at do t6e
destr8tion are mole8les somet6in) like 67dro)en peroCideG(6i6 (e 8se as an antisepti
bea8se it kills mirobes b7 oCidiIin) t6ere, 1ltra'iolet li)6t &rom t6e S8n strikes t6e s8r&ae o&
5ars 8nimpeded b7 an oIone la7er? i& an7 or)ani matter (ere t6ere, it (o8ld be K8ikl7
destro7ed b7 t6e 8ltra'iolet li)6t itsel& and its oCidation prod8ts$ 368s part o& t6e reason t6e
topmost la7ers o& 5artian soil are antisepti is t6at 5ars 6as an oIone 6ole o& planetar7
dimensionsGb7 itsel& a 8se&8l a8tionar7 tale &or 8s, (6o are b8sil7 t6innin) and p8nt8rin) o8r
oIone la7er$
="< /lobal (armin) is predited to &ollo( &rom t6e inreasin) )reen6o8se e&&et a8sed
lar)el7 b7 arbon dioCide )enerated in t6e b8rnin) o& &ossil &8elsGb8t also &rom t6e b8ild8p o&
ot6er in&rared-absorbin) )ases =oCides o& nitro)en, met6ane, t6ose same +%+s, and ot6er
mole8les<$
S8ppose t6at (e 6a'e a t6ree-dimensional )eneral ir8lation omp8ter model o& t6e
Eart6As limate$ Its pro)rammers laim itAs able to predit (6at t6e Eart6 (ill be like i& t6ereAs
more o& one atmosp6eri onstit8ent or less o& anot6er$ 36e model does 'er7 (ell at Bpreditin)B
t6e present limate$ B8t t6ere is a na))in) (orr7: 36e model 6as been Bt8nedB so it (ill ome
o8t ri)6tGt6at is, ertain adH8stable parameters are 6osen, not &rom &irst priniples o& p67sis,
b8t to )et t6e ri)6t ans(er$ 36is is not eCatl7 6eatin), b8t i& (e appl7 t6e same omp8ter
model to rat6er di&&erent limati re)imesGdeep )lobal (armin), &or instaneGt6e t8nin) mi)6t
t6en be inappropriate$ 36e model mi)6t be 'alid &or toda7As limate, b8t not eCtrapolatable to
ot6ers$
2ne (a7 to test t6is pro)ram is to appl7 it to t6e 'er7 di&&erent limates o& ot6er planets$
+an it predit t6e str8t8re o& t6e atmosp6ere on 5ars and t6e limate t6ereD 36e (eat6erD *6at
abo8t #en8sD I& it (ere to &ail t6ese test ases, (e (o8ld be ri)6t in mistr8stin) it (6en it makes
preditions &or o8r o(n planet$ In &at, limate models no( in 8se do 'er7 (ell in preditin)
&rom &irst priniples o& p67sis t6e limates on #en8s and 5ars$
2n Eart6, 68)e 8p(ellin)s o& molten la'a are kno(n and attrib8ted to s8perpl8mes
on'etin) 8p &rom t6e deep mantle and )eneratin) 'ast platea8s o& &roIen basalt$ , speta8lar
eCample o8rred abo8t a 68ndred million 7ears a)o, and added per6aps ten times t6e present
arbon dioCide ontent to t6e atmosp6ere, ind8in) s8bstantial )lobal (armin)$ 36ese pl8mes,
it is t6o8)6t, o8r episodiall7 t6ro8)6o8t Eart6As 6istor7$ Similar mantle 8p(ellin) seem to
6a'e o8rred on 5ars and #en8s$ 36ere are so8nd pratial reasons &or 8s to (ant to
8nderstand 6o( a maHor 6an)e to t6e Eart6As s8r&ae and limate o8ld s8ddenl7 arri'e
8nanno8ned &rom 68ndreds o& kilometers beneat6 o8r &eet$
Some o& t6e most important reent (ork on )lobal (armin) 6as been done b7 >ames
4ansen and 6is ollea)8es at t6e /oddard Instit8te &or Spae Sienes, a N,S, &ailit7 in Ne(
109
:ork +it7$ 4ansen de'eloped one o& t6e maHor omp8ter limate models and emplo7ed it to
predit (6at (ill 6appen to o8r limate as t6e )reen6o8se )ases ontin8e to b8ild 8p$ 4e 6as
been in t6e &ore&ront o& testin) t6ese models a)ainst anient limates o& t6e Eart6$ =!8rin) t6e
last ie a)es, it is o& interest to note, more arbon dioCide and met6ane are strikin)l7 orrelated
(it6 6i)6er temperat8res$< 4ansen olleted a (ide ran)e o& (eat6er data &rom t6is ent8r7 and
last, to see (6at at8all7 6appened to t6e )lobal temperat8re, and t6en ompared it to t6e
omp8ter modelAs preditions o& (6at (oul) 6a'e 6appened$ 36e t(o a)ree to (it6in t6e errors
o& meas8rement and al8lation, respeti'el7$ 4e o8ra)eo8sl7 testi&ied be&ore +on)ress in t6e
&ae o& a politiall7 )enerated order &rom t6e *6ite 4o8se 2&&ie o& 5ana)ement and B8d)et
=t6is (as in t6e -ea)an 7ears< to eCa))erate t6e 8nertainties and minimiIe t6e dan)ers$ 4is
al8lation on t6e eCplosion o& t6e 06ilippine 'olano 5t$ 0inat8bo and 6is predition o& t6e
res8ltin) temporar7 deline in t6e Eart6As temperat8re =abo8t 6al& a de)ree +elsi8s< (ere ri)6t
on t6e mone7$ 4e 6as been a &ore in on'inin) )o'ernments (orld(ide t6at )lobal (armin)
is somet6in) to be taken serio8sl7$
4o( did 4ansen )et interested in t6e )reen6o8se e&&et in t6e &irst plaeD 4is dotoral
t6esis =at t6e 1ni'ersit7 o& Io(a in 1967< (as abo8t #en8s$ 4e a)reed t6at t6e 6i)6 radio
bri)6tness o& #en8s is d8e to a 'er7 6ot s8r&ae, a)reed t6at )reen6o8se )ases keep t6e 6eat in,
b8t proposed t6at 6eat &rom t6e interior rat6er t6an s8nli)6t (as t6e prinipal ener)7 so8re$
36e Pioneer 12 mission to #en8s in 197; dropped entr7 probes into t6e atmosp6ere? t6e7
s6o(ed diretl7 t6at t6e ordinar7 )reen6o8se e&&etGt6e s8r&ae 6eated b7 t6e S8n and t6e 6eat
retained b7 t6e blanket o& airG(as t6e operati'e a8se$ B8t itAs #en8s t6at )ot 4ansen t6inkin)
abo8t t6e )reen6o8se e&&et$
-adio astronomers, 7o8 note, &ind #en8s to be an intense so8re o& radio (a'es$ 2t6er
eCplanations o& t6e radio emission &ail$ :o8 onl8de t6at t6e s8r&ae m8st be ridi8lo8sl7 6ot$
:o8 tr7 to 8nderstand (6ere t6e 6i)6 temperat8res ome &rom and are led ineCorabl7 to one or
anot6er kind o& )reen6o8se e&&et$ !eades later 7o8 &ind t6at t6is trainin) 6as prepared 7o8 to
8nderstand and 6elp predit an 8neCpeted t6reat to o8r )lobal i'iliIation$ I kno( man7 ot6er
instanes (6ere sientists (6o &irst tried to p8IIle o8t t6e atmosp6eres o& ot6er (orlds are
makin) important and 6i)6l7 pratial diso'eries abo8t t6is one$ 36e ot6er planets are a s8perb
trainin) )ro8nd &or st8dents o& t6e Eart6$ 36e7 reK8ire bot6 breadt6 and dept6 o& kno(led)e,
and t6e7 6allen)e t6e ima)ination$
36ose (6o are skeptial abo8t arbon dioCide )reen6o8se (armin) mi)6t pro&itabl7 note
t6e massi'e )reen6o8se e&&et on #en8s$ No one proposes t6at #en8sAs )reen6o8se e&&et deri'es
&rot6 impr8dent #en8sians (6o b8rned too m86 oal, dro'e &8el-ine&&iient a8tos, and 8t
do(n t6eir &orests$ 57 point is di&&erent$ 36e limatolo)ial 6istor7 o& o8r planetar7 nei)6bor,
an ot6er(ise Eart6like planet on (6i6 t6e s8r&ae beame 6ot eno8)6 to melt tin or lead, is
(ort6 onsiderin)Gespeiall7 b7 t6ose (6o sa7 t6at t6e inreasin) )reen6o8se e&&et on Eart6
(ill be sel&-orretin), t6at (e donAt reall7 6a'e to (orr7 abo8t it, or =7o8 an see t6is in t6e
p8bliations o& some )ro8ps t6at all t6emsel'es onser'ati'e< t6at t6e )reen6o8se e&&et itsel&
is a B6oaC$B
=3< N8lear (inter is t6e predited darkenin) and oolin) o& t6e Eart6Gmainl7 &rom &ine
smoke partiles inHeted into t6e atmosp6ere &rom t6e b8rnin) o& ities and petrole8m &ailities
Gt6at is predited to &ollo( a )lobal t6ermon8lear (ar$ , 'i)oro8s sienti&i debate ens8ed on
110
H8st 6o( serio8s n8lear (inter mi)6t be$ 36e 'ario8s opinions 6a'e no( on'er)ed$ ,ll t6ree-
dimensional )eneral ir8lation omp8ter models predit t6at t6e )lobal temperat8res res8ltin)
&rom a (orld(ide t6ermon8lear (ar (o8ld be older t6an t6ose in t6e 0leistoene ie a)es$
36e impliations &or o8r planetar7 i'iliIationGespeiall7 t6ro8)6 t6e ollapse o& a)ri8lt8reG
are 'er7 dire$ It is a onseK8ene o& n8lear (ar t6at (as some6o( o'erlooked b7 t6e i'il and
militar7 a8t6orities o& t6e 1nited States, t6e So'iet 1nion, Britain, %rane, and +6ina (6en t6e7
deided to a8m8late (ell o'er 60,000 n8lear (eapons$ ,lt6o8)6 itAs 6ard to be ertain abo8t
s86 t6in)s, a ase an be made t6at n8lear *inter pla7ed a onstr8ti'e role =t6ere (ere ot6er
a8ses, o& o8rse< in on'inin) t6e n8lear-armed nations, espeiall7 t6e So'iet 1nion, o& t6e
&8tilit7 o& n8lear (ar$
N8lear (inter (as &irst al8lated and named in 19;"N;3 b7 a )ro8p o& &i'e sientists, to
(6i6 IAm pro8d to belon)$ 36is team (as )i'en t6e aron7m 33,0S =&or -i6ard 0$ 38ro,
=e'en B$ 3oon, 36omas ,kerman, >ames 0ollak, and m7sel&<$ 2& t6e &i'e 33,0S sientists,
t(o (ere planetar7 sientists, and t6e ot6er t6ree 6ad p8blis6ed man7 papers in planetar7
siene, 36e earliest intimation o& n8lear (inter ame d8rin) t6at same Mariner 9 mission to
5ars, (6en t6ere (as a )lobal d8st storm and (e (ere 8nable to see t6e s8r&ae o& t6e planet?
t6e in&rared spetrometer on t6e spaera&t &o8nd t6e 6i)6 atmosp6ere to be (armer and t6e
s8r&ae older t6an t6e7 o8)6t to 6a'e been$ >im 0ollak and I sat do(n and tried to al8late
6o( t6at o8ld ome abo8t$ 2'er t6e s8bseK8ent t(el'e 7ears, t6is line o& inK8ir7 led &rom d8st
storms on 5ars to 'olani aerosols on Eart6 to t6e possible eCtintion o& t6e dinosa8rs b7
impat d8st to n8lear (inter$ :o8 ne'er kno( (6ere siene (ill take 7o8$
PLANETARY SCIENCE &osters a broad interdisiplinar7 point o& 'ie( t6at pro'es enormo8sl7
6elp&8l in diso'erin) and attemptin) to de&8se t6ese loomin) en'ironmental atastrop6es$ *6en
7o8 8t 7o8r teet6 on ot6er (orlds, 7o8 )ain a perspeti'e abo8t t6e &ra)ilit7 o& planetar7
en'ironments and abo8t (6at ot6er, K8ite di&&erent, en'ironments are possible$ 36ere ma7 (ell
be potential )lobal atastrop6es still to be 8no'ered$ I& t6ere are, I bet planetar7 sientists (ill
pla7 a entral role in 8nderstandin) t6em$
2& all t6e &ields o& mat6ematis, te6nolo)7, and siene, t6e one (it6 t6e )reatest
international ooperation =as determined b7 6o( o&ten t6e o-a8t6ors o& resear6 papers 6ail
&rom t(o or more o8ntries< is t6e &ield alled BEart6 and spae sienes$B St8d7in) t6is (orld
and ot6ers, b7 its 'er7 nat8re, tends to be non-loal, non-nationalist, non-6a8'inist$ #er7 rarel7
do people )o into t6ese &ields ;e7aue t6e7 are internationalists$ ,lmost al(a7s, t6e7 enter &or
ot6er reasons, and t6en diso'er t6at splendid (ork, (ork t6at omplements t6eir o(n, is bein)
done b7 resear6ers in ot6er nations? or t6at to sol'e a problem, 7o8 need data or a perspeti'e
=aess to t6e so8t6ern sk7, &or eCample< t6at is 8na'ailable in 7o8r o8ntr7$ ,nd one 7o8
eCperiene s86 ooperationG68mans &rom di&&erent parts o& t6e planet (orkin) in a m8t8all7
intelli)ible sienti&i lan)8a)e as partners on matters o& ommon onernGitAs 6ard not to
ima)ine it 6appenin) on ot6er, nonsienti&i matters$ I m7sel& onsider t6is aspet o& Eart6 and
spae sienes as a 6ealin) and 8ni&7in) &ore in (orld politis? b8t, bene&iial or not, it is
inesapable$
*6en I look at t6e e'idene, it seems to me t6at planetar7 eCploration is o& t6e most
111
pratial and 8r)ent 8tilit7 &or 8s 6ere on Eart6$ E'en i& (e (ere not ro8sed b7 t6e prospet o&
eCplorin) ot6er (orlds, e'en i& (e didnAt 6a'e a nano)ram o& ad'ent8resome spirit in 8s, e'en i&
(e (ere onl7 onerned &or o8rsel'es and in t6e narro(est sense, planetar7 eCploration (o8ld
still onstit8te a s8perb in'estment$
C H A P T E R 1 5
34E /,3ES 2% 34E
*2N!E- *2-.!
20EN
36e )reat &lood)ates o& t6e (onder-(orld s(8n) open$
G4E-5,N 5E.#I..E, MO>, .!#D9 +4,03E- 1 =1;51<
11"
Sometime omin) 8p, per6aps H8st aro8nd t6e orner, t6ere (ill be a nationGmore likel7, a
onsorti8m o& nationsGt6at (ill (ork t6e neCt maHor step in t6e 68man 'ent8re into spae$
0er6aps it (ill be bro8)6t abo8t b7 ir8m'entin) b8rea8raies and makin) e&&iient 8se o&
present te6nolo)ies$ 0er6aps it (ill reK8ire ne( te6nolo)ies, transendin) t6e )reat
bl8nderb8ss 6emial rokets$ 36e re(s o& t6ese s6ips (ill set &oot on ne( (orlds$ 36e &irst
bab7 (ill be born some(6ere 8p t6ere$ Earl7 steps to(ard li'in) o&& t6e land (ill be made$ *e
(ill be on o8r (a7$ ,nd t6e &8t8re (ill remember$
TANTALI&ING AND MAJESTIC, 5ars is t6e (orld neCt door, t6e nearest planet on (6i6 an
astrona8t or osmona8t o8ld sa&el7 land$ ,lt6o8)6 it is sometimes as (arm as a Ne( En)land
2tober, 5ars is a 6ill7 plae, so old t6at some o& its t6in arbon dioCide atmosp6ere &reeIes
o8t as dr7 ie at t6e (inter pole$
It is t6e nearest planet (6ose s8r&ae (e an see (it6 a small telesope$ In all t6e Solar
S7stem, it is t6e planet most like Eart6$ ,part &rom &l7b7s, t6ere 6a'e been onl7 t(o &8ll7
s8ess&8l missions to 5ars: Mariner 9 in 1971, and Viking 1 and " in 1976$ 36e7 re'ealed a
deep ri&t 'alle7 t6at (o8ld stret6 &rom Ne( :ork to San %raniso? immense 'olani
mo8ntains, t6e lar)est o& (6i6 to(ers ;0,000 &eet abo'e t6e a'era)e altit8de o& t6e 5artian
s8r&ae, almost t6ree times t6e 6ei)6t o& 5o8nt E'erest? an intriate la7ered str8t8re in and
amon) t6e polar ies, resemblin) a pile o& disarded poker 6ips, and probabl7 a reord o& past
limati 6an)e? bri)6t and dark streaks painted do(n on t6e s8r&ae b7 (indblo(n d8st,
pro'idin) 6i)6-speed (ind maps o& 5ars o'er t6e past deades and ent8ries? 'ast )lobe-
)irdlin) d8st storms? and eni)mati s8r&ae &eat8res$
48ndreds o& sin8o8s 6annels and 'alle7 net(orks datin) bak se'eral billion 7ears an be
&o8nd, mainl7 in t6e ratered so8t6ern 6i)6lands$ 36e7 s8))est a pre'io8s epo6 o& more beni)n
and Eart6like onditionsG'er7 di&&erent &rom (6at (e &ind beneat6 t6e ten8o8s and &ri)id
atmosp6ere o& o8r time$ Some anient 6annels seem to 6a'e been ar'ed b7 rain&all, some b7
8nder)ro8nd sappin) and ollapse, and some b7 )reat &loods t6at )8s6ed 8p o8t o& t6e )ro8nd$
-i'ers (ere po8rin) into and &illin) )reat t6o8sand-kilometer-diameter impat basins t6at toda7
are dr7 as d8st$ *ater&alls d(ar&in) an7 on Eart6 toda7 asaded into t6e lakes o& anient 5ars$
#ast oeans, 68ndreds o& meters, per6aps e'en a kilometer, deep ma7 6a'e )entl7 lapped
s6orelines barel7 disernible toda7$ /(a" (o8ld 6a'e been a (orld to eCplore$ *e are &o8r billion
7ears late$
1
2n Eart6 in H8st t6e same period, t6e &irst miroor)anisms arose and e'ol'ed$ .i&e on Eart6
is intimatel7 onneted, &or t6e most basi 6emial reasons, (it6 liK8id (ater$ *e 68mans are
o8rsel'es ma)e o& some t6ree-K8arters (ater$ 36e same sorts o& or)ani mole8les t6at &ell o8t o&
1
,lt6o8)6 in a &e( plaes, s86 as t6e slopes o& t6e ele'ation alled ,lba 0atera, t6ere are m8ltibran6ed 'alle7 net(orks t6at b7
omparison are 'er7 7o8n)$ Some6o(, e'en in t6e most reent billion 7ears, liK8id (ater seems to 6a'e &lo(ed 6ere and t6ere, &rom
time to time, t6ro8)6 t6e deserts o& 5ars$
113
t6e sk7 and (ere )enerated in t6e air and seas o& anient Eart6, s6o8ld also 6a'e a8m8lated on
anient 5ars$ Is it pla8sible t6at li&e K8ikl7 ame to be in t6e (aters o& earl7 Eart6, b8t (as
some6o( restrained and in6ibited in t6e (aters o& earl7 5arsD 2r mi)6t t6e 5artian seas 6a'e
been &illed (it6 li&eG&loatin), spa(nin), e'ol'in)D *6at stran)e beasts one s(8m t6ereD
*6ate'er t6e dramas o& t6ose distant times, it all started to )o (ron) aro8nd 3$; billion
7ears a)o$ *e an see t6at t6e erosion o& anient raters dramatiall7 be)an to slo( abo8t t6en$
,s t6e atmosp6ere t6inned, as t6e ri'ers &lo(ed no more, as t6e oeans be)an to dr7, as t6e
temperat8res pl8mmeted, li&e (o8ld 6a'e retreated to t6e &e( remainin) on)enial 6abitats,
per6aps 68ddlin) at t6e bottom o& ie-o'ered lakes, 8ntil it too 'anis6ed and t6e dead bodies
and &ossil remains o& eCoti or)anismsGb8ilt, it mi)6t be, on priniples 'er7 di&&erent &rom li&e
on Eart6G(ere deep-&roIen, a(aitin) t6e eCplorers (6o mi)6t in some distant &8t8re arri'e on
5ars$
METEORITES ARE FRAGMENTS OF OTHER WORLDS reo'ered on Eart6$ 5ost ori)inate in
ollisions amon) t6e n8mero8s asteroids t6at orbit t6e S8n bet(een t6e orbits o& 5ars and
>8piter$ B8t a &e( are )enerated (6en a lar)e meteorite impats a planet or asteroid at 6i)6
speed, )o8)es o8t a rater, and propels t6e eCa'ated s8r&ae material into spae$ , 'er7 small
&ration o& t6e eHeted roks, millions o& 7ears later, ma7 interept anot6er (orld$
In t6e (astelands o& ,ntartia, t6e ie is 6ere and t6ere dotted (it6 meteorites,
preser'ed b7 t6e lo( temperat8res and 8ntil reentl7 8ndist8rbed b7 68mans$ , &e( o& t6em,
alled SN+ =prono8ned BsnikB< meteorites
1
6a'e an aspet abo8t t6em t6at at &irst seemed
almost 8nbelie'able: !eep inside t6eir mineral and )lass7 str8t8res, loked a(a7 &rom t6e
ontaminatin) in&l8ene o& t6e Eart6As atmosp6ere, a little )as is trapped$ *6en t6e )as is
anal7Ied, it t8rns o8t to 6a'e eCatl7 t6e same 6emial omposition and isotopi ratios as t6e
air on 5ars$ *e kno( abo8t 5artian air not H8st &rom spetrosopi in&erene b8t &rom diret
meas8rement on t6e 5artian s8r&ae b7 t6e Viking landers$ 3o t6e s8rprise o& nearl7 e'er7one,
t6e SN+ meteorites ome &rom 5ars$
2ri)inall7, t6e7 (ere roks t6at 6ad melted and re&roIen$ -adioati'e datin) o& all t6e SN+
meteorites s6o(s t6eir parent roks ondensed o8t o& la'a bet(een 1;0 million and 1$3 billion
7ears a)o$ 36en t6e7 (ere dri'en o&& t6e planet b7 ollisions &rom spae$ %rom 6o( lon) t6e7A'e
been eCposed to osmi ra7s on t6eir interplanetar7 Ho8rne7s bet(een 5ars and Eart6, (e an
tell 6o( old t6e7 areG6o( lon) a)o t6e7 (ere eHeted &rom 5ars$ In t6is sense, t6e7 are
bet(een 10 million and 700,000 7ears old$ 36e7 sample t6e most reent 0$l perent o& 5artian
6istor7$
Some o& t6e minerals t6e7 ontain s6o( lear e'idene o& 6a'in) one been in (ater, (arm
liK8id (ater$ 36ese 67dro-t6ermal minerals re'eal t6at some6o(, probabl7 all o'er 5ars, t6ere
(as reent liK8id (ater$ 0er6aps it ame abo8t (6en t6e interior 6eat melted 8nder)ro8nd ie$
B8t 6o(e'er it 6appened, itAs nat8ral to (onder i& li&e is not entirel7 eCtint, i& some6o( itAs
1
S6ort &or S6er)ott7-Nak6la-+6assi)n7$ :o8 an see (67 t6e aron7m is 8sed$
114
mana)ed to 6an) on into o8r time in transient 8nder)ro8nd lakes, or e'en in t6in &ilms o& (ater
(ettin) s8bs8r&ae )rains$
36e )eo6emists E'erett /ibson and 4al Earlsson o& N,S,As >o6nson Spae %li)6t +enter
6a'e eCtrated a sin)le drop o& (ater &rom one o& t6e SN+ meteorites$ 36e isotopi ratios o& t6e
oC7)en and 67dro)en atoms t6at it ontains are literall7 8neart6l7$ I look on t6is (ater &rom
anot6er (orld as an eno8ra)ement &or &8t8re eCplorers and settlers$
Ima)ine (6at (e mi)6t &ind i& a lar)e n8mber o& samples, inl8din) ne'er melted soil and
roks, (ere ret8rned to Eart6 &rom 5artian loales seleted &or t6eir sienti&i interest$ *e are
'er7 lose to bein) able to aomplis6 t6is (it6 small ro'in) robot 'e6iles$
36e transportation o& s8bs8r&ae material &rom (orld to (orld raises a tantaliIin) K8estion:
%o8r billion 7ears a)o t6ere (ere t(o nei)6borin) planets, bot6 (arm, bot6 (et$ Impats &rom
spae, in t6e &inal sta)es o& t6e aretion o& t6ese planets, (ere o8rrin) at a m86 6i)6er rate
t6an toda7$ Samples &rom ea6 (orld (ere bein) &l8n) o8t into spae$ *e are s8re t6ere (as li&e
on at least one o& t6em in t6is period$ *e kno( t6at a &ration o& t6e eHeted debris sta7s ool
t6ro8)6o8t t6e proesses o& impat, eHetion, and intereption b7 anot6er (orld$ So o8ld some
o& t6e earl7 or)anisms on Eart6 6a'e been sa&el7 transplanted to 5ars &o8r billion 7ears a)o,
initiatin) li&e on t6at planetA 2r, e'en more spe8lati'e, o8ld li&e on Eart6 6a'e arisen b7 s86 a
trans&er &rom 5arsD 5i)6t t6e t(o planets 6a'e re)8larl7 eC6an)ed li&e-&orms &or 68ndreds o&
millions o& 7earsD 36e notion mi)6t be testable$ I& (e (ere to diso'er li&e on 5ars and &o8nd it
'er7 similar to li&e on Eart6Gand i&, as (ell, e (ere s8re it (asnAt mirobial ontamination t6at
(e o8rsel'es 6ad introd8ed in t6e o8rse o& o8r eCplorationsGt6e proposition t6at li&e (as lon)
a)o trans&erred aross interplanetar7 spae (o8ld 6a'e to be taken serio8sl7$
IT WAS ONCE THOUGHT t6at li&e is ab8ndant on 5ars$ E'en t6e do8r and skeptial astronomer
Simon Ne(omb =in 6is A"ronom$ &or E4er$;o)$9 (6i6 (ent t6ro8)6 man7 editions in t6e
earl7 deades o& t6is ent8r7 and (as t6e astronom7 teCt o& m7 6ild6ood< onl8ded, B36ere
appears to be li&e on t6e planet 5ars$ , &e( 7ears a)o t6is statement (as ommonl7 re)arded as
&antasti$ No( it is ommonl7 aepted$B Not Bintelli)ent 68man li&e,B 6e (as K8ik to add, b8t
)reen plants$ 4o(e'er, (e 6a'e no( been to 5ars and looked &or plantsGas (ell as animals,
mirobes, and intelli)ent bein)s$ E'en i& t6e ot6er &orms (ere absent, (e mi)6t 6a'e ima)ined,
as in Eart6As deserts toda7, and as on Eart6 &or almost all its 6istor7, ab8ndant mirobial li&e$
36e Bli&e detetionB eCperiments on #ikin) (ere desi)ned to detet onl7 a ertain s8bset o&
onei'able biolo)ies? t6e7 (ere biased to &ind t6e kind o& li&e abo8t (6i6 (e kno($ It (o8ld
6a'e been &oolis6 to send instr8ments t6at o8ld not e'en detet li&e on Eart6$ 36e7 (ere
eCK8isitel7 sensiti'e, able to &ind mirobes in t6e most 8npromisin), arid deserts and (astelands
on Eart6$
2ne eCperiment meas8red t6e )ases eC6an)ed bet(een 5artian soil and t6e 5artian
atmosp6ere in t6e presene o& or)ani matter &rom Eart6$ , seond bro8)6t a (ide 'ariet7
or)ani &oodst8&&s marked b7 a radioati'e traer to see i& t6ere (ere b8)s in t6e 5artian soil
(6o ate t6e &ood and oCidiIed it to radioati'e arbon dioCide$ , t6ird eCperiment introd8ed
radioati'e arbon dioCide =and arbon monoCide< to t6e 5artian soil to see i& an7 o& it (as
115
taken 8p b7 5artian mirobes$ 3o t6e initial astonis6ment o&, I t6ink, all t6e sientists in'ol'ed,
ea6 o& t6e t6ree eCperiments )a'e (6at at &irst seemed to be positi'e res8lts$ /ases (ere
eC6an)ed? or)ani matter (as oCidiIed? arbon dioCide (as inorporated into t6e soil$
B8t t6ere are reasons &or a8tion$ 36ese pro'oati'e res8lts are not )enerall7 t6o8)6t to be
)ood e'idene &or li&e on 5ars: 36e p8tati'e metaboli proesses o& 5artian mirobes o8rred
8nder a 'er7 (ide ran)e o& onditions inside t6e Viking landersG(et =(it6 liK8id (ater bro8)6t
&rom Eart6< and dr7, li)6t and dark, old =onl7 a little abo'e &reeIin)< to 6ot =almost t6e normal
boilin) point o& (ater<$ 5an7 mirobiolo)ists deem it 8nlikel7 t6at 5artian mirobes (o8ld be
so apable 8nder s86 'aried onditions$ ,not6er stron) ind8ement to skeptiism is t6at a &o8rt6
eCperiment, to look &or or)ani 6emials in t6e 5artian soil, )a'e 8ni&orml7 ne)ati'e res8lts
despite its sensiti'it7$ *e eCpet li&e on 5ars, like li&e on Eart6, to be or)aniIed aro8nd arbon-
based mole8les$ 3o &ind no s86 mole8les at all (as da8ntin) &or optimists amon) t6e
eCobiolo)ists$
36e apparentl7 positi'e res8lts o& t6e li&e detetion eCperiments is no( )enerall7 attrib8ted
to 6emials t6at oCidiIe t6e soil, deri'in) 8ltimatel7 &rom 8ltra'iolet s8nli)6t =as dis8ssed in
t6e pre'io8s 6apter<$ 36ere is still a 6and&8l o& Viking sientists (6o (onder i& t6ere mi)6t be
eCtremel7 to8)6 and ompetent or)anisms 'er7 t6inl7 spread o'er t6e 5artian soilGso t6eir
or)ani 6emistr7 o8ld not be deteted, b8t t6eir metaboli proesses o8ld$ S86 sientists do
not den7 t6at 8ltra'iolet-)enerated oCidants are present in t6e 5artian soil, b8t stress t6at no
t6oro8)6 eCplanation o& t6e likin) li&e detetion res8lts &rom oCidants alone 6as been
&ort6omin)$ 3entati'e laims 6a'e been made o& or)ani matter in SN+ meteorites, b8t t6e7
seem instead to be ontaminants t6at 6a'e entered t6e meteorite a&ter its arri'al on o8r (orld$ So
&ar, t6ere are no laims o& 5artian mirobes in t6ese roks &rom t6e sk7$
0er6aps bea8se it seems to pander to p8bli interest, N,S, and most #ikin) sientists
6a'e been 'er7 6ar7 abo8t p8rs8in) t6e biolo)ial 67pot6esis$ E'en no(, m86 more o8ld be
done in )oin) o'er t6e old data, in lookin) (it6 #ikin)-t7pe instr8ments at ,ntarti and ot6er
soils t6at 6a'e &e( mirobes in t6em, in laborator7 sim8lation o& t6e role o& oCidants in t6e
5artian soil, and in desi)nin) eCperiments to el8idate t6ese mattersGnot eCl8din) &8rt6er
sear6es &or li&eG(it6 &8t8re 5ars landers$
I& indeed no 8nambi)8o8s si)nat8res o& li&e (ere determined b7 a 'ariet7 o& sensiti'e
eCperiments at t(o sites 5,000 kilometers apart on a planet marked b7 )lobal (ind transport o&
&ine partiles, t6is is at least s8))esti'e t6at 5ars ma7 be, toda7 at least, a li&eless planet$ B8t i&
5ars i li&eless, (e 6a'e t(o planets, o& 'irt8all7 idential a)e and earl7 onditions, e'ol'in)
neCt door to one anot6er in t6e same polar s7stem: .i&e e'ol'es and proli&erates on one, b8t not
t6e ot6er$ *67D
0er6aps t6e 6emial or &ossil remains o& earl7 5artian li&e an still be &o8ndGs8bs8r&ae,
sa&el7 proteted &rom t6e 8ltra'iolet radiation and its oCidation prod8ts t6at toda7 &r7 t6e
s8r&ae$ 0er6aps in a rok &ae eCposed b7 a landslide, or in t6e banks o& an anient ri'er 'alle7
or dr7 lake bed, or in t6e polar, laminated terrain, ke7 e'idene &or li&e on anot6er planet is
(aitin)$
116
!espite its absene on t6e s8r&ae o& 5ars, t6e planetAs t(o moons, 06obos and !eimos,
seem to be ri6 in ompleC or)ani matter datin) bak to t6e earl7 6istor7 o& t6e Solar S7stem$
36e So'iet P(o;o 2 spaera&t &o8nd e'idene o& (ater 'apor bein) o8t-)assed &rom 06obos, as
i& it 6as an i7 interior 6eated b7 radioati'it7$ 36e moons o& 5ars ma7 6a'e lon) a)o been
apt8red &rom some(6ere in t6e o8ter Solar S7stem? onei'abl7, t6e7 are amon) t6e nearest
a'ailable eCamples o& 8naltered st8&& &rom t6e earliest da7s o& t6e Solar S7stem$ 06obos and
!eimos are 'er7 small, ea6 ro8)6l7 10 kilometers aross? t6e )ra'it7 t6e7 eCert is nearl7
ne)li)ible$ So itAs omparati'el7 eas7 to rendeI'o8s (it6 t6em, land on t6em, eCamine t6em, 8se
t6em as a base o& operations to st8d7 5ars, and t6en )o 6ome$
5ars alls, a store6o8se o& sienti&i in&ormationGimportant in its o(n ri)6t b8t also &or
t6e li)6t it asts on t6e en'ironment o& o8r o(n planet$ 36ere are m7steries (aitin) to be
resol'ed abo8t t6e interior o& 5ars and its mode o& ori)in, t6e nat8re o& 'olanos on a (orld
(it6o8t plate tetonis, t6e s8lptin) o& land&orms on a planet (it6 sandstorms 8ndreamt o& on
Eart6, )laiers and polar land&orms, t6e esape o& planetar7 atmosp6eres, and t6e apt8re o&
moonsGto mention a more or less random samplin) o& sienti&i p8IIles$ I& 5ars one 6ad
ab8ndant liK8id (ater and a lement limate, (6at (ent (ron)D 4o( did an Eart6like (orld
beome so par6ed, &ri)id, and omparati'el7 airlessD Is t6ere somet6in) 6ere (e s6o8ld kno(
abo8t o8r o(n planetD
*e 68mans 6a'e been t6is (a7 be&ore$ 36e anient eCplorers (o8ld 6a'e 8nderstood t6e
all o& 5ars$ B8t mere sienti&i eCploration does not reK8ire a 68man presene$ *e tan al(a7s
send smart robots$ 36e7 are &ar 6eaper, t6e7 donAt talk bak, 7o8 an send t6em to m86 more
dan)ero8s loales, arid, (it6 some 6ane o& mission &ail8re al(a7s be&ore 8s, no li'es are p8t at
risk$
'HAVE YOU SEEN ME(' t6e bak o& t6e milk arton read$ HMar O;ser'er, 6A C 4$5A C 3A, "500
k)$ .ast 6eard &rom on ;N"1N93, 6"7,000 km &rom 5ars$B
B5$ 2$ all 6omeB (as t6e plainti'e messa)e on a banner 68n) o8tside t6e Het 0rop8lsion
.aborator7As 5ission 2perations %ailit7 in late ,8)8st 1993$ 36e &ail8re o& t6e 1nited StatesA
Mar O;er4er spaera&t H8st be&ore it (as to insert itsel& into orbit aro8nd 5ars (as a )reat
disappointment$ It (as t6e &irst post-la8n6 mission &ail8re o& an ,merian l8nar or planetar7
spaera&t in "6 7ears$ 5an7 sientists and en)ineers 6ad de'oted a deade o& t6eir pro&essional
li'es to 5$ 2$ It (as t6e &irst 1$S$ mission to 5ars in 17 7earsGsine Viking6 t(o orbiters and
t(o landers in 1976$ It (as also t6e &irst real post-+old *ar spaera&t: -8ssian sientists (ere
on se'eral o& t6e in'esti)ator teams, and Mar O;er4er (as to at as an essential radio rela7
link &or larders &rom (6at (as t6en s6ed8led to be t6e -8ssian Mar A94 mission, as (ell as &or
a darin) ro'er and balloon mission slated &or Mar 6963
36e sienti&i instr8ments aboard Mar O;er4er (o8ld 6a'e napped t6e )eo6emistr7 o&
t6e planet and prepared t6e (a7 &or &8t8re missions, )8idin) landin) site deisions$ It mi)6t 6a'e
ast a ne( li)6t on t6e massi'e limate 6an)e t6at seems to 6a'e o8rred in earl7 5artian
6istor7$ It (o8ld 6a'e p6oto)rap6ed some o& t6e s8r&ae o& 5ars (it6 detail better t6an t(o
117
meters aross$ 2& o8rse, (e do not kno( (6at (onders Mar O;er4er (o8ld 6a'e 8no'ered$
B8t e'er7 time (e eCamine a (orld (it6 ne( instr8ments and in 'astl7 impro'ed detail, a
daIIlin) arra7 o& diso'eries emer)es H8st as it did (6en /alileo t8rned t6e &irst telesope to(ard
t6e 6ea'ens and opened t6e era o& modern astronom7$
,ordin) to t6e +ommission o& InK8ir7, t6e a8se o& t6e &ail8re (as probabl7 a r8pt8re o&
t6e &8el tank d8rin) press8riIation, )ases and liK8ids sp8tterin) o8t, and t6e (o8nded spaera&t
spinnin) (ildl7 o8t o& ontrol$ 0er6aps it (as a'oidable$ 0er6aps it (as an 8nl8k7 aident$ B8t
to keep t6is matter in perspeti'e, letAs onsider t6e &8ll ran)e o& missions to t6e 5oon and t6e
planets attempted b7 t6e 1nited States and t6e &ormer So'iet 1nion:
In t6e be)innin), o8r trak reords (ere poor$ Spae 'e6iles ble( 8p at la8n6, missed
t6eir tar)ets, or &ailed to &8ntion (6en t6e7 )ot t6ere$ ,s time (ent on, (e 68mans )ot ?<otter at
interplanetar7 &li)6t$ 36ere (as a learnin) 8r'e$ 36e ,adHaent &i)8res s6o( t6ese 8r'es =based
on N,S, data (it6 N,S, de&initions o& mission s8ess<$ *e learned 'er7 (ell$ 28r present
abilit7 to &iC spaera&t in &li)6t is best ill8strated b7 t6e Vo$ager missions desribed earlier$
*e see t6at it (asnAt 8ntil abo8t its t6irt7-&i&t6 la8n6 to t6e 5oon or t6e planets t6at t6e
8m8lati'e 1$S$ mission s8ess rate )ot as 6i)6 as 50 perent$ 36e -8ssians took abo8t 50
la8n6es to )et t6ere$ ,'era)in) t6e s6ak7 start and t6e better reent per&ormane, (e &ind t6at
bot6 t6e 1nited States and -8ssia 6a'e a 8m8lati'e laun7( s8ess rate o& abo8t ;0 perent$ B8t
t6e 8m8lati'e miion s8ess rate is still 8nder 70 perent &or t6e 1$S$ and 8nder 60 perent &or
t6e 1$S$S$-$N-8ssia$ EK8i'alentl7, l8nar and planetar7 missions 6a'e &ailed on a'era)e 30 or 40
perent o& t6e time$
5issions to ot6er (orlds (ere &rom t6e be)innin) at t6e 8ttin) ed)e o& te6nolo)7$ 36e7
ontin8e to be so toda7$ 36e7 $ire desi)ned (it6 red8ndant s8bs7stems, and operated b7
dediated and eCperiened en)ineers, b8t t6e7 are not per&et$ 36e amaIin) t6in) is not t6at (e
6a'e done so poorl7, b8t t6at (e lea'e done so (ell$
*e donAt kno( (6et6er t6e Mar O;er4er &ail8re (as d8e to inompetene or H8st
statistis$ B8t (e m8st eCpet a stead7 bak)ro8nd o& mission &ail8res (6en (e eCplore ot6er
(orlds$ No 68man li'es are risked (6en a robot spaera&t is lost$ E'en i& (e (ere able to
impro'e t6is s8ess rate si)ni&iantl7, it (o8ld be &ar too ostl7$ It is m86 better to take more
risks and &l7 more spaera&t:$
Eno(in) abo8t irred8ible risks, (67 do (e t6ese da7s &l7 onl7 one spaera&t per missionD
In 196" Mariner 19 intended &or #en8s, &ell into t6e ,tlanti? t6e nearl7 idential Mariner 2
beame t6e 68man speiesA &irst s8ess&8l planetar7 mission$ Mariner ' &ailed, arid its t(in
Mariner F beame, in 1964, t6e &irst spaera&t to take lose-8p pit8res o& 5ars$ 2r onsider t6e
19*1 Mariner 8CMariner 9 d8al la8n6 mission to 5ars$ Mariner 8 *as to map t6e planet$
Mariner 9 (as to st8d7 t6e eni)mati seasonal and se8lar 6an)es o& s8r&ae markin)s$ 36e
spaera&t (ere ot6er(ise idential$ Mariner 8 &ell into t6e oean$ Mariner 9 &le( on to 5ars
arid beame t6e &irst spaera&t in 68man 6istor7 to orbit anot6er planet$ It diso'ered t6e
'olanos, t6e laminated terrain in t6e polar aps, t6e anient ri'er 'alle7s, and t6e aeolian nat8re
o& t6e s8r&ae 6an)es$ It dispro'ed t6e Banals$B It mapped t6e planet pole to pole and re'ealed
all t6e maHor )eolo)ial &eat8res o& 5ars kno(n to 8s toda7$ It pro'ided t6e &irst lose-8p
11;
obser'ations o& members o& a (6ole lass o& small (orlds =b7 tar)etin) t6e 5artian moons,
06obos and !eimos<$ I& (e 6ad la8n6ed onl7 Mariner 89 t6e endea'or (o8ld 6a'e been an
8nmiti)ated &ail8re$ *it6 a d8al la8n6 it beame a brilliant and 6istori s8ess$
36ere (ere also t(o Viking, t(o Vo$ager, t(o Vega, man7 pairs o& Venera3 *67 (as
onl7 one 5ars 2bser'er &lo(nD 36e standard ans(er is ost$ 0art o& t6e reason it (as so ostl7,
t6o8)6, is t6at it (as planned to be la8n6ed b7 s68ttle, (6i6 is an almost abs8rdl7 eCpensi'e
booster &or planetar7 missionsGin t6is ase too eCpensi'e &or t(o 5$ 2$ la8n6es$ ,&ter man7
s68ttle-onneted dela7s and ost inreases, N,S, 6an)ed its mind and deided to la8n6 Mar
O;er4er on a /i"an booster$ 36is reK8ired an additional t(o-7ear dela7 and an adapter to mate
t6e spaera&t to t6e ne( la8n6 'e6ile$ I& N,S, 6ad not been so intent on pro'idin) b8siness
&or t6e inreasin)l7 8neonomi s68ttle, (e o8ld 6a'e la8n6ed a o8ple o& 7ears earlier and
ma7be (it6 t(o spaera&t instead o& one$
B8t (6et6er in sin)le la8n6es or in pairs, t6e spae-&arin) nations 6a'e learl7 deided t6at
t6e time is ripe to ret8rn robot eCplorers to 5ars$ 5ission desi)ns 6an)e? ne( nations enter t6e
&ield? old nations &ind t6e7 no lon)er 6a'e t6e reso8res$ E'en alread7 &8nded pro)rams annot
al(a7s be relied 8pon$ B8t 8rrent plans do re'eal somet6in) o& t6e intensit7 o& e&&ort and t6e
dept6 o& dediation$
,s I (rite t6is book, t6ere are tentati'e plans b7 t6e 1nited States, -8ssia, %rane, /erman7,
>apan, ,8stria, %inland, Ital7, +anada, t6e E8ropean Spae ,)en7, and ot6er entities &or a
oordinated roboti eCploration o& 5ars$ In t6e se'en 7ears bet(een 1996 and "003, a &lotilla o&
some t(ent7-&i'e spaera&tGmost o& t6em omparati'el7 small and 6eapGare to be sent &rom
Eart6 to 5ars$ 36ere (ill be no K8ik &l7b7s amon) t6em? t6ese are all lon)-d8ration orbiter and
lander missions$ 36e 1nited States (ill re-&l7 all o& t6e sienti&i instr8ments t6at (ere lost on
5ars O;er4er3 36e -8ssian spaera&t (ill ontain parti8larl7 ambitio8s eCperiments in'ol'in)
some t(ent7 nations$ +omm8niations satellites (ill permit eCperimental stations an7(6ere on
5ars to rela7 t6eir data bak to Eart6$ 0enetrators sree6in) do(n &rom orbit (ill p8n6 into t6e
5artian soil, transmittin) data &rom 8nder)ro8nd$ Instr8mented balloons and ro'in) laboratories
(ill (ander o'er t6e sands o& 5ars$ Some mirorobots (ill (ei)6 no more t6an a &e( po8nds$
.andin) sites are bein) planned and oordinated$ Instr8ments (ill be ross-alibrated$ !ata (ill
be &reel7 eC6an)ed$ 36ere is e'er7 reason to t6ink t6at in t6e omin) 7ears 5ars and its
m7steries (ill beome inreasin)l7 &amiliar to t6e in6abitants o& t6e planet Eart6$
IN THE COMMAND CENTER on Eart6, in a speial room, 7o8 are 6elmeted and )lo'ed$ :o8 t8rn
7o8r 6ead to t6e le&t, and t6e ameras on t6e 5ars robot ro'er t8rn to t6e le&t$ :o8 see, in 'er7
6i)6 de&inition and in olor, (6at t6e ameras see$ :o8 take a step &or(ard, and t6e ro'er (alks
&or(ard$ :o8 rea6 o8t 7o8r arm to pik 8p somet6in) s6in7 in t6e soil, and t6e robot arm does
like(ise$ 36e sands o& 5ars trikle t6ro8)6 7o8r &in)ers$ 36e onl7 di&&i8lt7 (it6 t6is remote
realit7 te6nolo)7 is t6at all t6is m8st o8r in tedio8s slo( motion: 36e ro8nd-trip tra'el time o&
t6e 8p-link ommands &rom Eart6 to 5ars and t6e do(n-link data ret8rned &rom 5ars to Eart6
mi)6t take 6al& an 6o8r or more$ B8t t6is is somet6in) (e an learn to do$ *e an learn to
ontain o8r eCplorator7 impatiene i& t6atAs t6e prie o& eCplorin) 5ars$ 36e ro'er an be made
119
smart eno8)6 to deal (it6 ro8tine ontin)enies$ ,n7t6in) more 6allen)in), and it makes a
dead stop, p8ts itsel& into a sa&e)8ard mode, and radios &or a 'er7 patient 68man ontroller to
take o'er$
+onH8re 8p ro'in), smart robots, ea6 o& t6em a small sienti&i laborator7, landin) in t6e
sa&e b8t d8ll plaes and (anderin) to 'ie( lose-8p some o& t6at pro&8sion o& 5artian *onders$
0er6aps e'er7 da7 a robot (o8ld ro'e to its o(n 6oriIon? ea6 mornin) (e (o8ld see lose-8p
(6at 6ad 7esterda7 been onl7 a distant eminene$ 36e len)t6enin) pro)ress o& a tra'erse ro8te
o'er t6e 5artian landsape (o8ld appear oil ne(s pro)rams and in s6oolrooms$ 0eople (o8ld
spe8late on (6at (ill be &o8nd$ Ni)6tl7 ne(sasts &rom anot6er planet, (it6 t6eir re'elations o&
ne( terrains and ne( sienti&i &indin)s (o8ld make e'er7one on Eart6 a part7 to t6e ad'ent8re$
36en t6ereAs 5artian 'irt8al realit7: 36e data sent bak &rom 5ars, stored in a modern
omp8ter, are &ed into 7o8r 6elmet and )lo'es and boots$ :o8 are (alkin) in an empt7 room on
Eart6, b8t to 7o8 7o8 are on 5ars: pink skies, &ields o& bo8lders, sand d8nes stret6in) to t6e
6oriIon (6ere an immense 'olano looms? 7o8 6ear t6e sand r8n6in) 8nder 7o8r boots, 7o8
t8rn roks o'er, di) a 6ole, sample t6e t6in air, t8rn a orner, and ome &ae to &ae (it6 $ $ $
(6ate'er ne( diso'eries (e (ill make on 5arsGall eCat opies o& (6atAs on 5ars, and all
eCperiened &rom t6e sa&et7 o& a 'irt8al realit7 salon in 7o8r 6ometo(n$ 36is is not (67 (e
eCplore 5ars, b8t learl7 (e (ill need robot eCplorers to ret8rn t6e real realit7 be&ore it an be
reon&i)8red into 'irt8al realit7$
Espeiall7 (it6 ontin8in) in'estment in robotis and ma6ine intelli)ene, sendin)
68mans to 5ars anAt be H8sti&ied b7 siene alone$ ,nd man7 more people an eCperiene t6e
'irt8al 5ars t6an o8ld possibl7 be sent to t6e real one$ *e an do 'er7 (ell (it6 robots$ I& (eAre
)oin) to send people, (eAll need a better reason t6an siene and eCploration$
In t6e 19;0s, I t6o8)6t I sa( a o6erent H8sti&iation &or 68man missions to 5ars$ I
ima)ined t6e 1nited States and t6e So'iet 1nion, t6e t(o +old *ar ri'als t6at 6ad p8t o8r )lobal
i'iliIation at risk, Hoinin) to)et6er in a &ar-seein), 6i)6-te6nolo)7 endea'or t6at (o8ld )i'e
6ope to people e'er7(6ere$ I pit8red a kind o& ,pollo pro)ram in re'erse, in (6i6 ooperation,
not ompetition, (as t6e dri'in) &ore, in (6i6 tire t(o leadin) spae-&arin) nations (o8ld
to)et6er la7 t6e )ro8nd(ork &or a maHor ad'ane in 68man 6istor7Gt6e e'ent8al settlement o&
anot6er planet$
36e s7mbolism seemed so apt$ 36e same te6nolo)7 t6at an propel apoal7pti (eapons
&rom ontinent to ontinent (o8ld enable t6e &irst 68man 'o7a)e to anot6er planet$ It (as a
6oie o& &ittin) m7t6i po(er: to embrae t6e planet named a&ter, rat6er t6e madness asribed
to, t6e )od o& (ar$
*e s8eeded in interestin) So'iet sientists and en)ineers in s86 a Hoint endea'or$ -oald
Sa)dee', t6en diretor o& t6e Instit8te &or Spae -esear6 o& t6e So'iet ,adem7 o& Sienes in
5oso(, (as alread7 deepl7 en)a)ed in international ooperation on So'iet roboti missions to
#en8s, 5ars, and 4alle7As +omet, lon) be&ore t6e idea beame &as6ionable$ 0roHeted Hoint 8se o&
t6e So'iet 5ir spae station and t6e Sa"urn #-lass la8n6 'e6ile Energi$a made ooperation
attrati'e to t6e So'iet or)aniIations t6at man8&at8red t6ese items o& 6ard(are? t6e7 (ere
ot6er(ise 6a'in) di&&i8lt7 H8sti&7in) t6eir (ares$ 36ro8)6 a seK8ene o& ar)8ments =6elpin) to
1"0
brin) t6e +old *ar to an end bein) 6ie& amon) t6em<, t6en-So'iet leader 5ik6ail S$ /orba6e'
(as on'ined$ !8rin) t6e !eember 19;7 *as6in)ton s8mmit, 5r$ /orba6e'Gasked (6at
(as t6e most important Hoint ati'it7 t6ro8)6 (6i6 t6e t(o o8ntries mi)6t s7mboliIe t6e
6an)e in t6eir relations6ipG8n6esitatin)l7 replied, B.etAs )o to 5ars to)et6er$B
B8t t6e -ea)an ,dministration (as not interested$ +ooperatin) (it6 t6e So'iets,
akno(led)in) t6at ertain So'iet te6nolo)ies (ere more ad'aned t6an t6eir ,merian
o8nterparts, makin) some ,merian te6nolo)7 a'ailable to t6e So'iets, s6arin) redit,
pro'idin) an alternati'e &or t6e arms man8&at8rersGt6ese (ere not to t6e ,dministrationAs
likin)$ 36e o&&er (as t8rned do(n$ 5ars (o8ld 6a'e to (ait$
In onl7 a &e( 7ears, times 6a'e 6an)ed$ 36e +old *ar is o'er$ 36e So'iet 1nion is no more$
36e bene&it deri'in) &rom t6e t(o nations (orkin) to)et6er 6as lost some o& its &ore$ 2t6er
nationsGespeiall7 >apan and t6e onstit8ent members o& t6e E8ropean Spae ,)en7G6a'e
beome interplanetar7 tra'elers$ 5an7 H8st and 8r)ent demands are le'ied on t6e disretionar7
b8d)ets o& t6e nations$
B8t t6e Energi$a 6ea'7-li&t booster still a(aits a mission$ 36e (ork6orse Pro"on roket is
a'ailable$ 36e Mir spae stationG(it6 a re( on board almost ontin8o8sl7Gstill orbits t6e
Eart6 e'er7 6o8r and a 6al&$ !espite internal t8rmoil, t6e -8ssian spae pro)ram ontin8es
'i)oro8sl7$ +ooperation bet(een -8ssia and ,meria in spae is aeleratin)$ , -8ssian
osmona8t, Ser)ei Erikale', in 1994 &le( on t6e s68ttle .i7o4er$ =&or t6e 8s8al one-(eek
s68ttle mission d8ration? Erikale' 6ad alread7 lo))ed 464 da7s aboard t6e Mir spae station<$
1$S$ astrona8ts (ill 'isit Mir3 ,merian instr8mentsGinl8din) one to eCamine t6e oCidants
t6o8)6t to destro7 or)ani mole8les in t6e 5artian soilGare to be arried b7 -8ssian spae
'e6iles to 5ars$ Mar O;er4er (as desi)ned to ser'e as a rela7 station &or landers in -8ssian
5ars missions$ 36e -8ssians 6a'e o&&ered to inl8de a 1$S$ orbiter in a &ort6omin) Pro"on-
la8n6ed m8ltipa7load mission to 5ars$
36e ,merian and -8ssian apabilities in spae siene and te6nolo)7 mes6? t6e7
interdi)itate$ Ea6 is stron) (6ere t6e ot6er is (eak$ 36is is a marria)e made in 6ea'en-b8t one
t6at 6as been s8rprisin)l7 di&&i8lt to ons8mmate$
2n September ", 1993, an a)reement to ooperate in dept6 (as si)ned in *as6in)ton b7
#ie 0resident ,l /ore and 0rime 5inister #iktor +6ernom7rdin$ 36e +linton ,dministration
6as ordered N,S, to redesi)n t6e 1$S$ spae station =alled 2ree)om in t6e -ea)an 7ears< so it
is in t6e same orbit as Mir and an be mated to it: >apanese and E8ropean mod8les (ill be
atta6ed, as (ill a +anadian robot arm$ 36e desi)ns 6a'e no( e'ol'ed into (6at is alled Spae
Station Alp(a9 in'ol'in) almost all t6e spae&arin) nations$ =+6ina is t6e most notable
eCeption$<
In ret8rn &or 1$S$ spae ooperation and an in&8sion o& 6ard 8rren7, -8ssia in e&&et a)reed
to 6alt its sale o& ballisti missile omponents to ot6er nations, and )enerall7 to eCerise ti)6t
ontrols on its eCport o& strate)i (eapons te6nolo)7$ In t6is *a7, spae beomes one a)ain, as
it (as at t6e 6ei)6t o& t6e +old *ar, an instr8ment o& national strate)i poli7$
36is ne( trend 6as, t6o8)6, made some o& t6e ,merian aerospae ind8str7 and some ke7
members o& +on)ress pro&o8ndl7 8neas7$ *it6o8t international ompetition, an (e moti'ate
1"1
s86 ambitio8s e&&ortsD !oes e'er7 -8ssian la8n6 'e6ile 8sed ooperati'el7 mean less s8pport
&or t6e ,merian aerospae ind8str7D +an ,merians rel7 on stable s8pport and ontin8it7 o&
e&&ort in Hoint proHets (it6 t6e -8ssiansD =36e -8ssians, o& o8rse, ask similar K8estions abo8t
t6e ,merians$< B8t ooperati'e pro)rams in t6e lon) term sa'e mone7, dra( 8pon t6e
eCtraordinar7 sienti&i and en)ineerin) talent distrib8ted o'er o8r planet, and pro'ide inspiration
abo8t t6e )lobal &8t8re$ 36ere ma7 be &l8t8ations in national ommitments$ *e are likel7 to take
bak(ard as (ell as &or(ard steps$ B8t t6e o'erall trend seems lear$
!espite )ro(in) pains, t6e spae pro)rams o& t6e t(o &ormer ad'ersaries are be)innin) to
Hoin$ It is no( possible to &oresee a (orld spae stationGnot o& an7 one nation b8t o& t6e planet
Eart6Gbein) assembled at 51U inlination to t6e eK8ator and a &e( 68ndred miles 8p$ ,
dramati Hoint mission, alled B%ire and Ie,B is bein) dis8ssed in (6i6 a &ast &l7b7 (o8ld be
sent to 0l8to, t6e last 8neCplored planet? b8t to )et t6ere, a )ra'it7 assist &rom t6e S8n (o8ld be
emplo7ed, in t6e o8rse o& *6i6 small probes (o8ld at8all7 enter t6e S8nAs atmosp6ere$ ,nd
(e seem to be on t6e t6res6old o& a *orld +onsorti8m &or t6e sienti&i eCploration o& 5ars$ It
'er7 m86 looks as t6o8)6 s86 proHets (ill be done ooperati'el7 or not at all$
WHETHER THERE ARE VALID, ost-e&&eti'e, broadl7 s8pportable reasons &or people to 'ent8re
to 5ars is an open K8estion$ +ertainl7 t6ere is no onsens8s$ 36e matter is treated in t6e neCt
6apter$
I (o8ld ar)8e t6at i& (e are not e'ent8all7 )oin) to send people to (orlds as &ar a(a7 as
5ars, (e 6a'e lost t6e 6ie& reason &or a spae stationGa permanentl7 =or intermittentl7<
o8pied 68man o8tpost in Eart6 orbit$ , spae station is &ar &rom an optim8m plat&orm &or doin)
siene eit6er lookin) do(n at t6e Eart6, or lookin) o8t into spae, or &or 8tiliIin) miro)ra'it7
=t6e 'er7 presene o& astrona8ts messes t6in)s 8p<$ %or militar7 reonnaissane it is m86
in&erior to roboti spaera&t$ 36ere are no ompellin) eonomi or man8&at8rin) appliations$
It is eCpensi'e ompared to roboti spaera&t$ ,nd o& o8rse it r8ns some risk o& losin) 68man
li'es$ E'er7 s68ttle la8n6 to 6elp b8ild or s8ppl7 a spae station 6as an estimated 1 or " perent
6ane o& atastrop6i &ail8re$ 0re'io8s i'ilian and militar7 spae ati'ities 6a'e littered lo(
Eart6 orbit (it6 &ast-mo'in) debrisGt6at sooner or later (ill ollide (it6 a spae station
=alt6o8)6, so &ar, Mir 6as 6ad no &ail8res &rom t6is 6aIard<$ , spae station is also 8nneessar7
&or 68man eCploration o& t6e 5oon$ ,pollo )ot t6ere 'er7 (ell (it6 no spae station at all$ *it6
Sa"urn V or Energi$a lass la8n6ers, it also ma7 be possible to )et to near-eart6 asteroids or
e'en 5ars (it6o8t 6a'in) to assemble t6e interplanetar7 'e6ile on an orbitin) spae station$
, spae station o8ld ser'e inspirational and ed8ational p8rposes, and it ertainl7 an 6elp
to solidi&7 relations amon) t6e spae&arin) nationsGparti8larl7 t6e 1nited States and -8ssia$
B8t t6e onl7 s8bstanti'e &8ntion o& a spae station, as &ar as I an see, is &or lon)-d8ration
spae&li)6t$ 4o( do 68mans be6a'e in miro )ra'it7D 4o( an (e o8nter pro)ressi'e 6an)es
in blood 6emistr7 and an estimated 6 perent bone loss per 7ear in Iero )ra'it7D =%or a t6ree- or
&o8r-7ear mission to 5ars t6is adds 8p, i& t6e tra'elers 6a'e to )o at Iero )$<
1""
36ese are 6ardl7 K8estions in &8ndamental biolo)7 s86 as !N, or t6e e'ol8tionar7
proess? instead t6e7 address iss8es o& applied 68man biolo)7$ ItAs important to kno( t6e
ans(ers, b8t onl7 i& (e intend to )o some(6ere in spae t6atAs &ar a(a7 and takes a lon) time to
)et t6ere$ 36e onl7 tan)ible and o6erent )oal o& a spae station is e'ent8al 68man missions to
near-Eart6 asteroids, 5ars, and be7ond$ 4istoriall7 N,S, 6as been a8tio8s abo8t statin) t6is
&at learl7, probabl7 &or &ear t6at members o& +on)ress (ill t6ro( 8p t6eir 6ands in dis)8st,
deno8ne t6e spae station as t6e t6in ed)e o& an eCtremel7 eCpensi'e (ed)e, and delare t6e
o8ntr7 8nread7 to ommit to la8n6in) people to 5ars$ In e&&et, t6en, N,S, 6as kept K8iet
abo8t (6at t6e spae station is reall7 &or$ ,nd 7et i& (e 6ad s86 a spae station, not6in) (o8ld
reK8ire 8s to )o strai)6t to 5ars$ *e o8ld 8se a spae station to a8m8late and re&ine t6e
rele'ant kno(led)e, and take as lon) as (e like to do soGso t6at (6en t6e time does ome,
(6en (e are read7 to )o to t6e planets, (e (ill 6a'e t6e bak)ro8nd and eCperiene to do so
sa&el7$
36e Mar O;er4er &ail8re, and t6e atastrop6i loss o& t6e spae s68ttle #(allenger in
19;6, remind 8s t6at t6ere (ill be a ertain irred8ible 6ane o& disaster in &8t8re 68man &li)6ts
to 5ars and else(6ere$ 36e Apollo 1' mission, (6i6 (as 8nable to land on t6e 5oon and
barel7 ret8rned sa&el7 to Eart6, 8ndersores 6o( l8k7 (eA'e been$ *e annot make per&etl7
sa&e a8tos or trains e'en t6o8)6 (eA'e been at it &or more t6an a ent8r7$ 48ndreds o& t6o8sands
o& 7ears a&ter (e &irst domestiated &ire, e'er7 it7 in t6e (orld 6as a ser'ie o& &ire&i)6ters
bidin) t6eir time 8ntil t6ereAs a blaIe t6at needs p8ttin) o8t$ In +ol8mb8sA &o8r 'o7a)es to t6e
Ne( *orld, 6e lost s6ips le&t and ri)6t, inl8din) one t6ird o& t6e little &leet t6at set o8t in 149"$
I& (e are to send people, it m8st be &or a 'er7 )ood reasonGand (it6 a realisti
8nderstandin) t6at almost ertainl7 (e (ill lose li'es$ ,strona8ts and osmona8ts 6a'e al(a7s
8nderstood t6is$ Ne'ert6eless, t6ere 6as been and (ill be no s6orta)e o& 'ol8nteers$
B8t (67 5arsD *67 not ret8rn to t6e 5oonD ItAs nearb7, and (eA'e pro'ed (e kno( 6o( to
send people t6ere$ IAm onerned t6at t6e 5oon, lose as it is, is a lon) deto8r, i& not a dead end$
*eA'e been t6ere$ *eA'e e'en bro8)6t some o& it bak$ 0eople 6a'e seen t6e 5oon roks, and,
&or reasons t6at I belie'e are &8ndamentall7 so8nd, t6e7 are bored b7 t6e 5oon$ ItAs a stati,
airless, (aterless, blak-sk7, dead (orld$ Its most interestin) aspet per6aps is its ratered
s8r&ae, a reord o& anient ,atastrop6i impats, on t6e Eart6 as (ell as on t6e 5oon$
5ars, b7 ontrast, 6as (eat6er, d8st storms, its o(n moons, 'olanos, polar ie aps,
pe8liar land&orms, anient ri'er 'alle7s, and e'idene o& massi'e limati 6an)e on a one-
Eart6like (orld$ It 6olds some prospet o& past or ma7be e'en present li&e, and is t6e most
on)enial planet &or &8t8re li&eG68mans transplanted &rom Eart6, li'in) o&& t6e land$ None o&
t6is is tr8e &or t6e 5oon$ 5ars also 6as its o(n le)ible raterin) 6istor7$ It 5ars, rat6er t6an t6e
5oon, 6ad been (it6in eas7 rea6, (e (o8ld not 6a'e baked o&& &rom manned spae &li)6t$
Nor is t6e 5oon an espeiall7 desirable test bed or (a7 station &or 5ars$ 36e 5artian and
l8nar en'ironments are 'er7 di&&erent, and t6e 5oon is as distant &rom 5ars as is t6e Eart6$ 36e
ma6iner7 &or 5artian eCploration an at least eK8all7 (ell be tested in Eart6 orbit, or on near-
Eart6 asteroids, or on t6e Eart6 itsel&Gin ,ntartia, &or instane$
1"3
>apan 6as tended to be skeptial o& t6e ommitment o& t6e 1nited States and ot6er nations to
plan and eCe8te maHor ooperati'e proHets in spae$ 36is is at least one reason t6at >apan, more
t6an an7 ot6er spae&arin) nation, 6as tended to )o it alone$ 36e .8nar and 0lanetar7 Soiet7 o&
>apan is an or)aniIation representin) spae ent68siasts in t6e )o'ernment, 8ni'ersities, and
maHor ind8stries$ ,s I (rite, t6e Soiet7 is proposin) to onstr8t and stok a l8nar base entirel7
(it6 robot labor$ It is said to take abo8t 30 7ears and to ost abo8t a billion 1$S$ dollars a 7ear
=(6i6 (o8ld represent 7 perent o& t6e present 1$S$ i'ilian spae b8d)et<$ 48mans (o8ld
arri'e onl7 (6en t6e base is &8ll7 read7$ 36e 8se o& robot onstr8tion re(s 8nder radio
ommand &rom Eart6 is said to red8e t6e ost ten&old$ 36e onl7 tro8ble (it6 t6e s6eme,
aordin) to reports, is t6at ot6er sientists in >apan keep askin), B*6atAs it &orDB 36atAs a )ood
K8estion in e'er7 nation$
36e &irst 68man mission to 5ars is no( probabl7 too eCpensi'e &or an7 one nation to p8ll
o&& b7 itsel&$ Nor is it &ittin) t6at s86 a 6istori step be taken b7 representati'es o& onl7 a small
&ration o& t6e 68man speies$ B8t a ooperati'e 'ent8re amon) t6e 1nited States, -8ssia,
>apan, t6e E8ropean Spae ,)en7Gand per6aps ot6er nations, s86 as +6inaGmi)6t be
&easible in t6e not too distant &8t8re$ 36e international spae station (ill 6a'e tested o8r abilit7
to (ork to)et6er on )reat en)ineerin) proHets in spae$
36e ost o& sendin) a kilo)ram o& somet6in) no &art6er a(a7 t6an lo( Eart6 orbit is toda7
abo8t t6e same as t6e ost o& kilo)ram o& )old$ 36is is s8rel7 a maHor reason (e 6a'e 7et to
stride t6e anient s6orelines o& 5ars$ 58ltista)e 6emial rokets are t6e means t6at &irst took
8s into spae, and t6atAs (6at (eA'e been 8sin) e'er sine$ *eA'e tried to re&ine t6em, to make
t6ere sa&er, more reliable, simpler, 6eaper$ B8t t6at 6asnAt 6appened, or at least not nearl7 as
K8ikl7 as man7 6ad 6oped$
So ma7be t6ereAs a better (a7: ma7be sin)le-sta)e rokets t6at an la8n6 t6eir pa7loads
diretl7 to orbit? ma7be man7 small pa7loads s6ot &rom )8ns or roket-la8n6ed &rom airplanes?
ma7be s8personi ramHets$ 5a7be t6ereAs somet6in) m86 better t6at (e 6a'enAt t6o8)6t o& 7et$
I& (e an man8&at8re propellants &or t6e ret8rn trip &rom t6e air and soil o& o8r destination
(orld, t6e di&&i8lt7 o& t6e 'o7a)e (o8ld be )reatl7 eased$
2ne (eAre 8p t6ere in spae, 'ent8rin) to t6e planets, roketr7 is not neessaril7 t6e best
means to mo'e lar)e pa7loads aro8nd, e'en (it6 )ra'it7 assists$ 3oda7, (e make a &e( earl7
roket b8rns and later mido8rse orretions, and oast t6e rest o& t6e (a7$ B8t t6ere are
promisin) ion and n8learN eletri prop8lsion s7stems b7 (6i6 a small and stead7 aeleration
is eCerted$ 2r, as t6e -8ssian spae pioneer Eonstantin 3siolko'sk7 &irst en'isioned, (e o8ld
emplo7 solar sailsG'ast b8t 'er7 t6in &ilms t6at at6 s8nli)6t and t6e solar (ind, a ara'el
kilometers (ide pl7in) t6e 'oid bet(een t6e (orlds$ Espeiall7 &or trips to 5ars and be7ond,
s86 met6ods are &ar better t6an rokets$
,s (it6 most te6nolo)ies, (6en somet6in) barel7 (orks, (6en itAs t6e &irst o& its kind,
t6ereAs a nat8ral tenden7 to impro'e it, de'elop it, eCploit it$ Soon t6ereAs s86 an instit8tional
in'estment in t6e ori)inal te6nolo)7, no matter 6o( &la(ed, t6at itAs 'er7 6ard to mo'e on to
somet6in) better$ N,S, 6as almost no reso8res to p8rs8e alternati'e prop8lsion te6nolo)ies$
36at mone7 (o8ld 6a'e to ome o8t o& near-term missions, missions (6i6 o8ld pro'ide
1"4
onrete res8lts and impro'e N,S,As s8ess reord$ Spendin) mone7 on alternati'e
te6nolo)ies pa7s o&& a deade or t(o in t6e &8t8re$ *e tend to be 'er7 little interested in a
deade or t(o in t6e &8t8re$ 36is is one o& t6e (a7s b7 (6i6 initial s8ess an so( t6e seeds o&
8ltimate &ail8re? and is 'er7 similar to (6at sometimes 6appens in biolo)ial e'ol8tion$ B8t
sooner or later some nationGper6aps one (it6o8t a 68)e in'estment in mar)inall7 e&&eti'e
te6nolo)7G(ill de'elop e&&eti'e alternati'es$
E'en be&ore t6en, i& (e take a ooperati'e pat6, t6ere (ill ome a timeGper6aps in t6e &irst
deades o& t6e ne( ent8r7 and t6e ne( millenni8mG(6en an interplanetar7 spaera&t is
assembled in Eart6 orbit, t6e pro)ress in &8ll 'ie( on t6e e'enin) ne(s$ ,strona8ts and
osmona8ts, 6o'erin) like )nats, )8ide and mate t6e pre&abriated parts$ E'ent8all7 t6e s6ip,
tested and read7, is boarded b7 its international re(, and boosted to esape 'eloit7$ %or t6e
(6ole o& t6e 'o7a)e to 5ars and bak, t6e li'es o& t6e re( members depend on one anot6er, a
miroosm o& o8r at8al ir8mstanes do(n 6ere on Eart6$ 0er6aps t6e &irst Hoint interplanetar7
mission (it6 68man re(s (ill be onl7 a &l7b7 or orbit o& 5ars$ Earlier, robot 'e6iles, (it6
aerobrakin), para68tes, and retrorokets, (ill 6a'e set )entl7 do(n on t6e 5artian s8r&ae to
ollet samples and ret8rn t6em to Eart6, and to emplae s8pplies &or &8t8re eCplorers$ B8t
(6et6er or not (e 6a'e ompellin), o6erent reasons, I am s8reG8nless (e destro7 o8rsel'es
&irstGt6at t6e da7 (ill ome (6en (e 68mans set &oot on 5ars$ It is onl7 a matter o& (6en$
,ordin) to solemn treat7, si)ned in *as6in)ton and 5oso( on >an8ar7 "7, 1967, no
nation ma7 la7 laim to part or all o& anot6er planet$ Ne'ert6elessG&or 6istorial reasons t6at
+ol8mb8s (o8ld 6a'e 8nderstood (ellGsome people are onerned abo8t (6o &irst sets &oot
on 5ars$ I& t6is reall7 (orries 8s, (e an arran)e &or t6e ankles o& t6e re( members to be tied
to)et6er as t6e7 ali)6t in t6e )entle 5artian )ra'it7$
36e re(s (o8ld aK8ire ne( and pre'io8sl7 seK8estered samples, in part to sear6 &or li&e,
in part to 8nderstand t6e past and &8t8re o& 5ars and Eart6$ 36e7 (o8ld eCperiment, &or later
eCpeditions, on eCtratin) (ater, oC7)en, and 67dro)en &rom t6e roks and t6e air and &rom t6e
8nder)ro8nd perma&rostGto drink, to breat6e, to po(er t6eir ma6ines and, as roket &8el and
oCidiIer, to propel t6e ret8rn 'o7a)e$ 36e7 (o8ld test 5artian materials &or e'ent8al &abriation
o& bases and settlements on 5ars$
,nd t6e7 (o8ld )o eCplorin)$ *6en I ima)ine t6e earl7 68man eCploration o& 5ars, itAs
al(a7s a ro'in) 'e6ile, a little like a Heep, (anderin) do(n one o& t6e 'alle7 net(orks, t6e re(
(it6 )eolo)ial 6ammers, ameras, and anal7ti instr8ments at t6e read7$ 36e7Are lookin) &or
roks &rom a)es past, si)ns o& anient atal7sms, l8es to limate 6an)e, stran)e 6emistries,
&ossils, orGmost eCitin) and most 8nlikel7Gsomet6in) ali'e$ 36eir diso'eries are tele'ised
bak to Eart6 at t6e speed o& li)6t$ Sn8))led 8p in bed (it6 t6e kids, 7o8 eCplore t6e anient
ri'erbeds o& 5ars$
1"5
C H A P T E R 16
SCALING HEAVEN

*6o, m7 &riend, an sale 6ea'enD
@/1E EP!# O2 %!&%AMES1
=S15E-, 34I-! 5I..ENNI15 B$+$<
W6atD, I sometimes ask m7sel& in amaIement: 28r anestors (alked &rom East ,&ria to
No'a7a @eml7a and ,7ers -ok and 0ata)onia, 68nted elep6ants (it6 stone spearpoints,
tra'ersed t6e polar seas in open boats 7,000 7ears a)o, ir8mna'i)ated t6e Eart6 propelled b7
not6in) b8t (ind, (alked t6e 5oon a deade a&ter enterin) spaeGand (eAre da8nted b7 a
'o7a)e to 5arsD B8t t6en I remind m7sel& o& t6e a'oidable 68man s8&&erin) on Eart6, 6o( a
&e( dollars an sa'e t6e li&e o& a 6ild d7in) o& de67dration, 6o( man7 6ildren (e o8ld sa'e
&or t6e ost o& a trip to 5arsGand &or t6e moment I 6an)e m7 mind$ Is it 8n(ort67 to sta7
6ome or 8n(ort67 to )oD 2r 6a'e I posed a &alse di6otom7D IsnAt it possible to make a better
li&e &or e'er7one on Eart6 an) to rea6 &or t6e planets and t6e starsD
*e 6ad an eCpansi'e r8n in t6e A60s and A70s$ :o8 mi)6t 6a'e t6o8)6t, as I did t6en, t6at
o8r speies (o8ld be on 5ars be&ore t6e ent8r7 (as o'er$ B8t instead, (eA'e p8lled in(ard$
1"6
-obots aside, (eA'e baked o&& &rom t6e planets and t6e stars$ 1 keep askin) m7sel& Is it a
&ail8re o& ner'e or a si)n o& mat8rit7D
5a7be itAs t6e most (e o8ld reasonabl7 6a'e eCpeted$ In a (a7 itAs amaIin) t6at it (as
possible at all: *e sent a doIen 68mans on (eek-lon) eC8rsions to t6e 5oon$ ,nd (e (ere
)i'en t6e reso8res to make a preliminar7 reonnaissane o& t6e (6ole Solar S7stem, o8t to
Nept8ne an7(a7Gmissions t6at ret8rned a (ealt6 o& data, b8t not6in) o& s6ort-term, e'er7da7,
bread-on-t6e-table pratial 'al8e$ 36e7 li&ted t6e 68man spirit, t6o8)6$ 36e7 enli)6tened 8s
abo8t o8r plae in t6e 1ni'erse$ ItAs eas7 to ima)ine skeins o& 6istorial a8salit7 in (6i6 t6ere
(ere no rae to t6e 5oon and no planetar7 pro)ram$
B8t itAs also possible to ima)ine a m86 more serio8s de'otion to eCploration, bea8se o&
(6i6 (e (o8ld toda7 6a'e robot 'e6iles probin) t6e atmosp6eres o& all t6e >o'ian planets
and doIens o& moons, omets, and asteroids? a net(ork o& a8tomati sienti&i stations
emplaed on 5ars (o8ld dail7 be reportin) t6eir &indin)s? and samples &rom man7 (orlds
(o8ld be 8nder eCamination in t6e laboratories o& Eart6Gre'ealin) t6eir )eolo)7, 6emistr7,
and per6aps e'en t6eir biolo)7$ 48man o8tposts mi)6t be alread7 establis6ed on t6e near-Eart6
asteroids, t6e 5oon, and 5ars$
36ere (ere man7 possible 6istorial pat6s$ 28r parti8lar a8salit7 skein 6as bro8)6t 8s to
a modest and r8dimentar7, alt6o8)6 in man7 respets 6eroi, series o& eCplorations$ B8t it is &ar
interior to (6at mi)6t 6a'e beenGand (6at ma7 one da7 be$
TO CARRY THE GREEN 0romet6ean spark o& .i&e (it6 8s into t6e sterile 'oid and i)nite t6ere a
&irestorm o& animate matter is t6e 'er7 destin7 o& o8r rae,B reads t6e bro68re o& somet6in)
alled t6e %irst 5illennial %o8ndation$ It promises, &or Y1"0 a 7ear, BitiIens6ipB in Bspae
oloniesG(6en t6e time omes$B BBene&atorsB (6o ontrib8te more also reei'e Bt6e 8nd7in)
)ratit8de o& a star-&l8n) i'iliIation, and t6eir name ar'ed on t6e monolit6 to be ereted on t6e
5oon$B 36is represents one eCtreme in t6e ontin88m o& ent68siasm &or a 68man presene in
spae$ 36e ot6er eCtremeGbetter represented in +on)ressGK8estions (67 (e s6o8ld be in spae
at all, espeiall7 people rat6er t6an robots$ 36e ,pollo pro)ram (as a Bmoondo))le,B t6e soial
riti ,mitai EtIioni one alled it? (it6 t6e +old *ar o'er, t6ere is no H8sti&iation (6ate'er,
proponents o& t6is orientation 6old, &or a manned spae pro)ram$ *6ere in t6is spetr8m o&
poli7 options s6o8ld (e beD
E'er sine t6e 1nited States beat t6e So'iet 1nion to t6e 5oon, a o6erent, (idel7
8nderstood H8sti&iation &or 68mans in spae seems to 6a'e 'anis6ed$ 0residents and
+on)ressional ommittees p8IIle o'er (6at to do (it6 t6e manned spae pro)ram$ *6at is it
&orD *67 do (e need itD B8t t6e eCploits o& t6e astrona8ts and t6e moon landin)s 6ad eliitedG
and &or )ood reasonGt6e admiration o& t6e (orld$ It (o8ld be a reHetion o& t6at st8nnin)
,merian a6ie'ement, t6e politial leaders tell t6emsel'es, to bak o&& &rom manned
spae&li)6t$ *6i6 0resident, (6i6 +on)ress (is6es to be responsible &or t6e end o& t6e
,merian spae pro)ramD ,nd in t6e &ormer So'iet 1nion a similar ar)8ment is 6eard: S6all (e
abandon, t6e7 ask t6emsel'es, t6e one remainin) 6i)6 te6nolo)7 in (6i6 (e are still (orld
leadersD S6all (e be &ait6less 6eirs o& Eonstantin 3siolko'sk7, Ser)ei Eorole', and :8ri
1"7
/a)arinD
36e &irst la( o& b8rea8ra7 is to )8arantee its o(n ontin8ane$ .e&t to its o(n de'ies,
(it6o8t lear instr8tions &rom abo'e, N,S, )rad8all7 de'ol'ed into a pro)ram t6at (o8ld
maintain pro&its, Hobs, and perK8isites$ 0ork-barrel politis, (it6 +on)ress pla7in) a leadin)
role, beame an inreasin)l7 po(er&8l &ore in t6e desi)n and eCe8tion o& missions and lon)-
term )oals$ 36e b8rea8ra7 ossi&ied$ N,S, lost its (a7$
2n >8l7 "0, 19;9, t6e t(entiet6 anni'ersar7 o& t6e Apollo 11 landin) on t6e 5oon,
0resident /eor)e B8s6 anno8ned a lon)-term diretion &or t6e 1$S$ spae pro)ram$ +alled t6e
Spae ECploration Initiati'e =SEI<, it proposed a seK8ene o& )oals inl8din) a 1$S$ spae
station, a ret8rn o& 68mans to t6e 5oon, and t6e &irst landin) o& 68mans on 5ars$ In a later
statement, 5r$ B8s6 set "019 as t6e tar)et date &or t6e &irst &oot&all on t6at planet$
,nd 7et t6e Spae ECploration Initiati'e, despite lear diretion &rom t6e top, &o8ndered$
%o8r 7ears a&ter it (as mandated, it did not e'en 6a'e a N,S, o&&ie dediated to it$ Small and
ineCpensi'e l8nar roboti missionsGt6at ot6er(ise mi)6t (ell 6a'e been appro'edG(ere
aneled b7 +on)ress bea8se o& )8ilt b7 assoiation (it6 SEI$ *6at (ent (ron)D
2ne problem (as t6e timesale$ SEI eCtended &i'e or so presidential terms o& o&&ie into t6e
&8t8re =takin) t6e a'era)e presiden7 as one and a 6al& terms<$ 36at makes it eas7 &or a president
to attempt to ommit 6is s8essors, b8t lea'es in onsiderable do8bt 6o( reliable s86 a
ommitment mi)6t be$ SEI ontrasted dramatiall7 (it6 t6e ,pollo pro)ramG(6i6, it mi)6t
6a'e been onHet8red at t6e time it be)an, o8ld 6a'e tri8mp6ed (6en 0resident Eenned7 or 6is
immediate politial 6eir (as still in o&&ie$
Seond, t6ere (as onern abo8t (6et6er N,S,, (6i6 6ad reentl7 eCperiened )reat
di&&i8lt7 in sa&el7 li&tin) a &e( astrona8ts "00 miles abo'e t6e Eart6, o8ld send astrona8ts on
an arin) 7ear-lon) traHetor7 to a destination 100 million miles a(a7 and brin) t6em bak ali'e$
36ird, t6e pro)ram (as onei'ed eCl8si'el7 in nationalist terms$ +ooperation (it6 ot6er
nations (as not &8ndamental to eit6er desi)n or eCe8tion$ #ie 0resident !an T8a7le, (6o 6ad
nominal responsibilit7 &or spae, H8sti&ied t6e spae station as a demonstration t6at t6e 1nited
States (as Bt6e (orldAs onl7 s8perpo(er$B B8t sine t6e So'iet 1nion 6ad an operational spae
station t6at (as a deade a6ead o& t6e 1nited States, 5r$ T8a7leAs ar)8ment pro'ed di&&i8lt to
&ollo($
%inall7, t6ere (as t6e K8estion o& (6ere, in terms o& pratial politis, t6e mone7 (as
s8pposed to ome &rom$ 36e osts o& )ettin) t6e &irst 68mans to 5ars 6ad been 'ario8sl7
estimated, ran)in) as 6i)6 as Y500 billion$
2& o8rse, itAs impossible to predit osts be&ore 7o8 6a'e a mission desi)n$ ,nd t6e
mission desi)n depends on s86 matters as t6e siIe o& t6e re(? t6e eCtent to (6i6 7o8 take
miti)atin) steps a)ainst solar and osmi radiation 6aIards, or Iero )ra'it7? and (6at ot6er risks
7o8 are (illin) to aept (it6 t6e li'es o& t6e men and (omen on board$ I& e'er7 re( member
6as one essential speialt7, (6at 6appens i& one o& t6em &alls illD 36e lar)er t6e re(, t6e more
reliable t6e bak8ps$ :o8 (o8ld almost ertainl7 not send a &8ll-time oral s8r)eon, b8t (6at
6appens i& 7o8 need root anal (ork and 7o8Are a 68ndred million miles &rom t6e nearest dentistD
2r o8ld it be done b7 an endodontist on Eart6, 8sin) telepreseneD
1";
*ern6er 'on Bra8n (as t6e NaIi-,merian en)ineer (6o, more t6an an7one else, at8all7
took 8s into spae$ 4is 195" book .a MarproAek" en'isioned a &irst mission (it6 10
interplanetar7 spaera&t, 70 re( members, and 3 Blandin) boats$B -ed8ndan7 (as 8ppermost
in 6is mind$ 36e lo)istial reK8irements, 6e (rote, Bare no )reater t6an t6ose &or a minor militar7
operation eCtendin) o'er a limited t6eater o& (ar$B 4e meant to BeCplode one and &or all t6e
t6eor7 o& t6e solitar7 spae roket and its little band o& bold interplanetar7 ad'ent8rers,B and
appealed to +ol8mb8sA t6ree s6ips (it6o8t (6i6 B6istor7 tends to pro'e t6at 6e mi)6t ne'er
6a'e ret8rned to Spanis6 s6ores$B 5odern 5ars mission desi)ns 6a'e i)nored t6is ad'ie$ 36e7
are m86 less ambitio8s t6an 7on Bra8nAs, t7piall7 allin) &or one or t(o spaera&t re(ed b7
t6ree to ei)6t astrona8ts, (it6 anot6er roboti ar)o s6ip or t(o$ 36e solitar7 roket and t6e little
band o& ad'ent8rers are still (it6 8s$
2t6er 8nertainties a&&etin) mission desi)n and ost inl8de (6et6er 7o8 pre-emplae
s8pplies &rom Eart6 and la8n6 68mans to 5ars onl7 a&ter t6e s8pplies are sa&el7 landed?
(6et6er 7o8 an 8se 5artian materials to )enerate oC7)en to breat6e, (ater to drink, and roket
propellants to )et 6ome? (6et6er 7o8 land 8sin) t6e t6in 5artian atmosp6ere &or aerobrakin)? t6e
de)ree o& red8ndan7 in eK8ipment t6o8)6t pr8dent? t6e eCtent to (6i6 7o8 8se losed
eolo)ial s7stems or H8st depend on t6e &ood, (ater, and (aste disposal &ailities 7o8A'e bro8)6t
&rom Eart6? t6e desi)n o& ro'in) 'e6iles &or t6e re( to eCplore t6e 5artian landsape? and 6o(
m86 eK8ipment 7o8Are (illin) to arr7 to test o8r abilit7 to li'e o&& t6e land in later 'o7a)es$
1ntil s86 K8estions are deided, itAs abs8rd to aept an7 &i)8re &or t6e ost o& t6e
pro)ram$ 2n t6e ot6er 6and, it (as eK8all7 lear t6at SEI (o8ld be eCtremel7 eCpensi'e$ %or all
t6ese reasons, t6e pro)ram (as a nonstarter$ It (as stillborn$
36ere (as no e&&eti'e attempt b7 t6e B8s6 ,dministration to spend politial apital to )et SEI
)oin)$
36e lesson to me seems lear: 36ere ma7 be no (a7 to Send 68mans to 5ars in t6e
omparati'el7 near &8t8reGdespite t6e &at t6at it is entirel7 (it6in o8r te6nolo)ial apabilit7$
/o'ernments do not spend t6ese 'ast s8ms H8st &or siene, or merel7 to eCplore$ 36e7 need
anot6er p8rpose, and it m8st make real politial sense$
It ma7 be impossible to )o H8st 7et, b8t (6en it is possible, t6e mission, I t6ink, m8st be
international &rom t6e start, (it6 osts and responsibilities eK8itabl7 s6ared and t6e eCpertise o&
man7 nations tapped? t6e prie m8st be reasonable? t6e time &rom appro'al to la8n6 m8st &it
(it6in pratial politial timesales? and t6e spae a)enies onerned m8st demonstrate t6eir
abilit7 to m8ster pioneerin) eCplorator7 missions (it6 68man re(s sa&el7, on time, and on
b8d)et$ I& it (ere possible to ima)ine s86 a mission &or less t6an Y100 billion, and &or a time
&rom appro'al to la8n6 less t6an 15 7ears, ma7be it (o8ld be &easible$ =In terms o& ost, t6is
(o8ld represent onl7 a &ration o& t6e ann8al i'ilian spae b8d)ets o& t6e present spae&arin)
nations$< *it6 aerobrakin) and man8&at8rin) &8el and oC7)en &or t6e ret8rn trip o8t o& 5artian
air, itAs no( be)innin) to look as i& s86 a b8d)et and s86 a timesale mi)6t at8all7 be realisti$
36e 6eaper and K8iker t6e mission is, neessaril7 t6e more risk (e m8st be (illin) to take
(it6 t6e li'es o& t6e astrona8ts and osmona8ts aboard$ B8t as is ill8strated, amon) o8ntless
eCamples, b7 t6e sam8rai o& medie'al >apan, t6ere are al(a7s ompetent 'ol8nteers &or 6i)6l7
1"9
dan)ero8s missions in (6at is perei'ed as a )reat a8se$ No b8d)et, no timeline an be reall7
reliable (6en (e attempt to do somet6in) on so )rand a sale, somet6in) t6at 6as ne'er been
done be&ore$ 36e more lee(a7 (e ask, t6e )reater is t6e ost and t6e lon)er it takes to )et t6ere$
%indin) t6e ri)6t ompromise bet(een politial &easibilit7 and mission s8ess ma7 be trik7$
IT'S NOT ENOUGH to )o to 5ars bea8se some o& 8s 6a'e dreamt o& doin) so sine 6ild6ood, or
bea8se it seems to 8s t6e ob'io8s lon)-term eCplorator7 )oal &or t6e 68man speies$ I& (eAre
talkin) abo8t spendin) t6is m86 mone7, (e m8st H8sti&7 t6e eCpense$
36ere are no( ot6er mattersGlear, r7in) national needsGt6at annot be addressed
(it6o8t maHor eCpendit8res? at t6e same time, t6e disretionar7 &ederal b8d)et 6as beome
pain&8ll7 onstrained$ !isposal o& 6emial and radioati'e poisons, ener)7 e&&iien7,
alternati'es to &ossil &8els, delinin) rates o& te6nolo)ial inno'ation, t6e ollapsin) 8rban
in&rastr8t8re, t6e ,I!S epidemi, a (it6esA bre( o& aners, 6omelessness, maln8trition, in&ant
mortalit7, ed8ation, Hobs, 6ealt6 areGt6ere is a pain&8ll7 lon) list$ I)norin) t6em (ill endan)er
t6e (ell-bein) o& t6e nation$ , similar dilemma &aes all t6e spae&arin) nations$
Nearl7 e'er7 one o& t6ese matters o8ld ost 68ndreds o& billions o& dollars or more to
address$ %iCin) in&rastr8t8re (ill ost se'eral trillion dollars$ ,lternati'es to t6e &ossil-&8el
eonom7 learl7 represent a m8ltitrillion-dollar in'estment (orld(ide, i& (e an do it$ 36ese
proHets, (e are sometimes told, are be7ond o8r abilit7 to pa7$ 4o( t6en an (e a&&ord to )o to
5arsD
I& t6ere (ere "0 perent more disretionar7 &8nds in t6e 1$S$ &ederal b8d)et =or t6e b8d)ets
o& t6e ot6er spae&arin) nations<, I probabl7 (o8ld not &eel so on&lited abo8t ad'oatin)
sendin) 68mans to 5ars$ I& t6ere (ere "0 perent less, I donAt t6ink t6e most die6ard spae
ent68siast (o8ld be 8r)in) s86 a mission$ S8rel7 t6ere is some point at (6i6 t6e national
eonom7 is in s86 dire straits t6at sendin) people to 5ats is 8nonsionable$ 36e K8estion is
(6ere (e dra( t6e line$ plainl7 s86 a line eCists, and e'er7 partiipant in t6ese debates s6o8ld
stip8late (6ere t6at line s6o8ld be dra(n, (6at &ration o& t6e )ross national prod8t &or spae is
too m86$ IAd like t6e same t6in) done &or Bde&ense$B
08bli opinion polls s6o( t6at man7 ,merians t6ink t6e N,S, b8d)et is abo8t eK8al to
t6e de&ense b8d)et$ In &at, t6e entire N,S, b8d)et, inl8din) 68man and roboti missions and
aerona8tis, is abo8t 5 perent o& t6e 1$S$ de&ense b8d)et$ 4o( m86 spendin) &or de&ense
at8all7 (eakens t6e o8ntr7D ,nd e'en i& N,S, (ere anelled alto)et6er, (o8ld (e &ree 8p
(6at is needed to sol'e o8r national problemsD
HUMAN SPACEFLIGHT In )eneralGto sa7 not6in) o& eCpeditions to 5arsG(o8ld be m86 more
readil7 s8pportable i&, as in t6e &i&teent6-ent8r7 ar)8ments o& +ol8mb8s and 4enr7 t6e
Na'i)ator, t6ere (ere a pro&it l8re$
1
Some ar)8ments 6a'e been ad'aned$ 36e 6i)6 'a88m or
1
E'en t6en it (asnAt eas7$ 36e 0ort8)8ese 6roniler /omes Eanes de @8rara reported t6is assessment b7 0rine 4enr7 t6e
Na'i)ator: BIt seemed to t6e .ord In&ante t6at i& 6e or some ot6er lord did not endea'or to )ain t6at kno(led)e, no mariners nor
mer6ants (o8ld e'er dare to attempt it, &or it is lear t6at none o& t6em e'er tro8ble t6emsel'es to sail to a plae (6ere t6ere is not
a s8re and ertain 6ope o& pro&it$B
130
lo( )ra'it7 or intense radiation en'ironment o& near-Eart6 spae mi)6t be 8tiliIed, it is said, &or
ommerial bene&it$ ,ll s86 proposals m8st be 6allen)ed b7 t6is K8estion: +o8ld omparable
or better prod8ts be man8&at8red do(n 6ere on Eart6 i& t6e de'elopment mone7 made
a'ailable (ere omparable to (6at is bein) po8red into t6e spae pro)ramD >8d)in) b7 6o( little
mone7 orporations 6a'e been (illin) to in'est in s86 te6nolo)7Gapart &rom t6e entities
b8ildin) t6e rokets and spaera&t t6emsel'esGt6e prospets, at least at present, seem to be not
'er7 6i)6$
36e notion t6at rare materials mi)6t be a'ailable else(6ere is tempered b7 t6e &at t6at
&rei)6ta)e is 6i)6$ 36ere ma7, &or all (e kno(, be oeans o& petrole8m on 3itan, b8t transportin)
it to Eart6 (ill be eCpensi'e$ 0latin8m-)ro8p metals ma7 be ab8ndant in ertain asteroids$ I& (e
o8ld mo'e t6ese asteroids into orbit aro8nd t6e Eart6, per6aps (e o8ld on'enientl7 mine
t6em$ B8t at least &or t6e &oreseeable &8t8re t6is seems dan)ero8sl7 impr8dent, as I desribe later
in t6is book$
In 6is lassi siene &ition no'el /(e Man :(o Sol) "(e Moon9 -obert 4einlein ima)ined
t6e pro&it moti'e as t6e ke7 to spae tra'el$ 4e 6adnAt &oreseen t6at t6e +old *ar (o8ld sell t6e
5oon$ B8t 6e did reo)niIe t6at an 6onest pro&it ar)8ment (o8ld be di&&i8lt to ome b7$
4einlein en'isioned, t6ere&ore, a sam in (6i6 t6e l8nar s8r&ae (as salted (it6 diamonds so
later eCplorers o8ld breat6lessl7 diso'er t6em and initiate a diamond r8s6$ *eA'e sine
ret8rned samples &rom t6e 5oon, t6o8)6, and t6ere is not a 6int o& ommeriall7 interestin)
diamonds t6ere$
4o(e'er, Ei7os6i E8ramoto and 3aka&8mi 5ats8i o& t6e 1ni'ersit7 o& 3ok7o 6a'e st8died
6o( t6e entral iron ores o& Eart6, #en8s, and 5ars &ormed, and &ind t6at t6e 5artian mantle
=bet(een r8st and ore< s6o8ld be ri6 in arbonGri6er t6an t6at o& t6e 5oon or #en8s or
Eart6$ !eeper t6an 300 kilometers, t6e press8res s6o8ld trans&orm arbon into diamond$ *e
kno( t6at 5ars 6as been )eolo)iall7 ati'e o'er its 6istor7$ 5aterial &rom )reat dept6 (ill
oasionall7 be eCtr8ded 8p to t6e s8r&ae, and not H8st in t6e )reat 'olanos$ So t6ere does seem
to be a ase &or diamonds on ot6er (orldsGon 5ars, lied not t6e 5oon$ In (6at K8antities, o&
(6at K8alit7 and siIe, and in (6i6 loales (e do not 7et kno($
36e ret8rn to Eart6 o& a spaera&t st8&&ed (it6 )or)eo8s m8ltiarat diamonds (o8ld
do8btless depress pries =as (ell as t6e s6are6olders o& t6e de Beers and /eneral Eletri
orporations<$ B8t bea8se o& t6e ornamental and ind8strial appliations o& diamonds, per6aps
t6ere is a lo(er limit belo( (6i6 pries (ill not )o$ +onei'abl7, t6e a&&eted ind8stries mi)6t
&ind a8se to promote t6e earl7 eCploration o& 5ars$
36e idea t6at 5artian diamonds (ill pa7 &or eCplorin) 5ars is at best a 'er7 lon) s6ot, b8t
itAs an eCample o& 6o( rare and 'al8able s8bstanes ma7 be diso'erable on ot6er (orlds$ It
(o8ld be &oolis6, t6o8)6, to o8nt on s86 ontin)enies$ I& (e seek to H8sti&7 missions to ot6er
(orlds, (eAll 6a'e to &ind ot6er reasons$
131
BEYOND DISCUSSIONS OF PROFITS and osts, e'en red8ed osts, (e m8st also desribe
bene&its, i& t6e7 eCist$ ,d'oates o& 68man missions to 5ars m8st address (6et6er, in t6e lon)
term, missions 8p t6ere are likel7 to miti)ate an7 o& t6e problems do(n 6ere$ +onsider no( t6e
standard set o& H8sti&iations and see i& 7o8 &ind t6em 'alid, in'alid, or indeterminate:
48man missions to 5ars (o8ld speta8larl7 impro'e o8r kno(led)e o& t6e planet,
inl8din) t6e sear6 &or present and past li&e$ 36e pro)ram is likel7 to lari&7 o8r 8nderstandin)
o& t6e en'ironment o& o8r o(n planet, as roboti missions 6a'e alread7 be)8n to do$ 36e 6istor7
o& o8r i'iliIation s6o(s t6at t6e p8rs8it o& basi kno(led)e is t6e (a7 t6e most si)ni&iant
pratial ad'anes ome abo8t$ 2pinion polls s8))est t6at t6e most pop8lar reason &or BeCplorin)
spaeB is Binreased kno(led)e$B B8t are 68mans in spae essential to a6ie'e t6is )oalD -oboti
missions, )i'en 6i)6 national priorit7 and eK8ipped (it6 impro'ed ma6ine intelli)ene, seem to
me entirel7 apable o& ans(erin), as (ell as astrona8ts an, all t6e K8estions (e need to askG
and at 5a7be 10 perent t6e ost$
It is alle)ed t6at Bspino&&B (ill transpireG68)e te6nolo)ial bene&its t6at (o8ld ot6er(ise
&ail to ome abo8tGt6ereb7 impro'in) o8r international ompetiti'eness and t6e domesti
eonom7$ B8t t6is is an old ar)8ment: Spend Y;0 billion =in ontemporar7 mone7< to send
,pollo astrona8ts to t6e 5oon, and (eAll t6ro( in a &ree stikless &r7in) pan$ 0lainl7, i& (eAre
a&ter &r7in) pans, (e an in'est t6e mone7 diretl7 and sa'e almost all o& t6at Y;0 billion$
36e ar)8ment is speio8s &or ot6er reasons as (ell, one o& (6i6 is t6at !80ontAs 3e&lon
te6nolo)7 lon) antedated ,pollo$ 36e same is tr8e o& ardia paemakers, ballpoint pens,
#elro, and ot6er p8rported spino&&s o& t6e ,pollo pro)ram$ =I one 6ad t6e opport8nit7 to talk
(it6 t6e in'entor o& t6e ardia paemaker, (6o 6imsel& nearl7 6ad a oronar7 aident
desribin) t6e inH8stie o& (6at 6e perei'ed as N,S, takin) redit &or 6is de'ie$< I& t6ere are
te6nolo)ies (e 8r)entl7 need, t6en spend t6e mone7 and de'elop t6em$ *67 )o to 5ars to do
itD
2& o8rse it (o8ld be impossible &or so m86 ne( te6nolo)7 as N,S, reK8ires to be
de'eloped and not 6a'e some spillo'er into t6e )eneral eonom7, some in'entions 8se&8l do(n
6ere$ %or eCample, t6e po(dered oran)e H8ie s8bstit8te 3an) (as a prod8t o& t6e manned spae
pro)ram, and spino&&s 6a'e o8rred in ordless tools, implanted ardia de&ibrillators, liK8id-
ooled )arments, and di)ital ima)in)Gto name a &e($ B8t t6e7 6ardl7 H8sti&7 68man 'o7a)es to
5ars or t6e eCistene o& N,S,$
*e o8ld see t6e old spino&& en)ine (6eeIin) and p8&&in) in t6e (anin) da7s o& t6e
-ea)an-era Star *ars o&&ie$ 47dro)en bomb-dri'en 9-ra7 lasers on orbitin) battle stations (ill
6elp per&et laser s8r)er7, t6e7 told 8s$ B8t i& (e need laser s8r)er7, i& itAs a 6i)6 national
priorit7, b7 all means letAs alloate t6e &8nds to de'elop it$ H8st lea'e Star *ars o8t o& it$ Spino&&
H8sti&iations onstit8te an admission t6at t6e pro)ram anAt stand on its o(n t(o &eet, annot be
H8sti&ied b7 t6e p8rpose &or (6i6 it (as ori)inall7 sold$
2ne 8pon a time it (as t6o8)6t, on t6e basis o& eonometri models, t6at &or e'er7 dollar
in'ested in N,S, man7 dollars (ere p8mped into t6e 1$S$ eonom7$ I& t6is m8ltiplier e&&et
applied more to N,S, t6an to most )o'ernment a)enies, it (o8ld pro'ide a potent &isal and
soial H8sti&iation &or t6e spae pro)ram$ N,S, s8pporters (ere not s67 abo8t appealin) to t6is
13"
ar)8ment$ B8t a 1994 +on)ressional B8d)et 2&&ie st8d7 &o8nd it to be a del8sion$ *6ile N,S,
spendin) bene&its some prod8tion se)ments o& t6e 1$S$ eonom7Gespeiall7 t6e aerospae
ind8str7Gt6ere is no pre&erential m8ltiplier e&&et$ .ike(ise, (6ile N,S, spendin) ertainl7
reates or maintains Hobs and pro&its, it does so no more e&&iientl7 t6an man7 ot6er )o'ernment
a)enies$
36en t6ereAs ed8ation, an ar)8ment t6at 6as pro'ed &rom time to time 'er7 attrati'e in t6e
*6ite 4o8se$ !otorates in siene peaked some(6ere aro8nd t6e time o& Apollo 11, ma7be
e'en (it6 t6e proper p6ase la) a&ter t6e start o& t6e ,pollo pro)ram$ 36e a8se-and-e&&et
relations6ip is per6aps 8ndemonstrated, alt6o8)6 not impla8sible$ B8t so (6atD I& (eAre
interested in impro'in) ed8ation, is )oin) to 5ars t6e best ro8teD 36ink o& (6at (e o8ld do
(it6 Y100 billion &or tea6er trainin) and salaries, s6ool laboratories and libraries, s6olars6ips
&or disad'anta)ed st8dents, resear6 &ailities, and )rad8ate &ello(s6ips$ Is it reall7 tr8e t6at t6e
best (a7 to promote siene ed8ation is to )o to 5arsD
,not6er ar)8ment is t6at 68man missions to 5ars (ill o8p7 t6e militar7-ind8strial
ompleC, di&&8sin) t6e temptation to 8se its onsiderable politial m8sle to eCa))erate eCternal
t6reats and p8mp 8p de&ense &8ndin)$ 36e ot6er side o& t6is parti8lar oin is t6at b7 )oin) to
5ars (e maintain a standb7 te6nolo)ial apait7 t6at mi)6t be important &or &8t8re militar7
ontin)enies$ 2& o8rse, (e mi)6t simpl7 ask t6ose )87s to do somet6in) diretl7 8se&8l &or t6e
i'ilian eonom7$ B8t as (e sa( in t6e 1970s (it6 /r8mman b8ses and Boein)N#ertol omm8ter
trains, t6e aerospae ind8str7 eCperienes real di&&i8lt7 in prod8in) ompetiti'el7 &or t6e
i'ilian eonom7$ +ertainl7 a tank ma7 tra'el 1,000 miles a 7ear and a b8s 1,000 miles a (eek,
so t6e basi desi)ns m8st be di&&erent$ B8t on matters o& reliabilit7 at least, t6e !e&ense
!epartment seems to be m86 less demandin)$
+ooperation in spae, as IA'e alread7 mentioned, is beomin) an instr8ment o& international
ooperationG&or eCample, in slo(in) t6e proli&eration o& strate)i (eapons to ne( nations$
-okets deommissioned bea8se o& t6e end o& t6e +old *ar mi)6t be )ain&8ll7 emplo7ed in
missions to Eart6 orbit, t6e 5oon, t6e planets, asteroids, and omets$ B8t all t6is an be
aomplis6ed (it6o8t 68man missions to 5ars$
2t6er H8sti&iations are o&&ered$ It is ar)8ed t6at t6e 8ltimate sol8tion to (orld ener)7
problems is to strip-mine t6e 5oon, ret8rn t6e solar-(ind-implanted 6eli8m-3 bak to Eart6, and
8se it in &8sion reators$ *6at &8sion reatorsD E'en i& t6is (ere possible, e'en i& it (ere ost-
e&&eti'e, it is a te6nolo)7 50 or 100 7ears a(a7$ 28r ener)7 problems need to be sol'ed at a
less leis8rel7 pae$
E'en stran)er is t6e ar)8ment t6at (e 6a'e to send 68man bein)s into spae in order to
sol'e t6e (orld pop8lation risis$ B8t some "50,000 more people are born t6an die e'er7 da7G
(6i6 means ans t6at (e (o8ld 6a'e to la8n6 "50,000 people per da7 into spae to
maintain (orld pop8lation at its present le'els$ 36is appears to be be7ond o8r present
apabilit7$
133
I RUN THROUGH s86 a list and tr7 to add 8p t6e pros and ons, bearin) in mind t6e ot6er
8r)ent laims on t6e &ederal b8d)et$ 3o me, t6e ar)8ment so &ar omes do(n to t6is K8estion:
+an t6e s8m o& a lar)e n8mber o& indi'id8all7 inadeK8ate >8sti&iations add 8p to an adeK8ate
H8sti&iationD
I donAt t6ink an7 o& t6e items on m7 list o& p8rported H8sti&iations is demonstrabl7 (ort6
Y500 billion or e'en Y100 billion, ertainl7 not in t6e s6ort term$ 2n t6e ot6er 6and, most o&
t6em are (ort6 somet6in), and i& I 6a'e &i'e items ea6 (ort6 Y"0 billion, ma7be it adds 8p to
Y100 billion$ I& (e an be le'er abo8t red8in) osts and makin) tr8e international
partners6ips, t6e H8sti&iations beome more ompellin)$
1ntil a national debate on t6is topi 6as transpired, 8ntil (e 6a'e a better idea o& t6e
rationale and t6e ostNbene&it ratio o& 68man missions to 5ars, (6at s6o8ld (e doD 57
s8))estion is t6at (e p8rs8e resear6 and de'elopment proHets t6at an be H8sti&ied on t6eir
o(n merits or b7 t6eir rele'ane to ot6er )oals, b8t t6at an also ontrib8te to 68man missions
to 5ars s6o8ld (e later deide to )o$ S86 an a)enda (o8ld inl8de:
Z 1$S$ astrona8ts on t6e -8ssian spae station Mir &or Hoint &li)6ts o& )rad8all7 inreasin)
d8ration, aimin) at one to t(o 7ears, t6e 5ars &li)6t time$
Z +on&i)8ration o& t6e international spae station so its prinipal &8ntion is to st8d7 t6e
lon)-term e&&ets o& t6e spae en'ironment on 68mans$
Z Earl7 implementation o& a rotatin) or tet6ered Barti&iial )ra'it7B mod8le on t6e
international spae station, &or ot6er animals and t6en &or 68mans$
Z En6aned st8dies o& t6e S8n, inl8din) a distrib8ted set o& robot probes in orbit abo8t t6e
S8n, to monitor solar ati'it7 and )i'e t6e earliest possible (arnin) to astrona8ts o&
6aIardo8s Bsolar &laresBGmass eHetions o& eletrons and protons &rom t6e S8nAs orona$
Z 1$S$N-8ssian and m8ltilateral de'elopment o& Energi$a and Pro"on roket te6nolo)7 &or
t6e 1$S$ and international spae pro)rams$ ,lt6o8)6 t6e 1nited States is 8nlikel7 to
depend primaril7 on a So'iet booster, Energi$a 6as ro8)6l7 t6e li&t o& t6e Sa"urn V t6at
sent t6e ,pollo astrona8ts to t6e 5oon$ 36e 1nited States let t6e Sa"urn V assembl7 line
die, and it annot readil7 be res8sitated$ Pro"on i t6e most reliable lar)e booster no( in
ser'ie$ -8ssia is ea)er to sell t6is te6nolo)7 &or 6ard 8rren7$
Z >oint proHets (it6 N,S!, =t6e >apanese spae a)en7< and 3ok7o 1ni'ersit7, t6e
E8ropean Spae ,)en7, and t6e -8ssian Spae ,)en7, alon) (it6 +anada and ot6er
nations$ In most ases t6ese s6o8ld be eK8al partners6ips, not t6e 1nited States insistin)
on allin) t6e s6ots$ %or t6e roboti eCploration o& 5ars, s86 pro)rams are alread7
8nder (a7$ %or 68man &li)6t, t6e 6ie& s86 ati'it7 is learl7 t6e international spae
station$ E'ent8all7, (e mi)6t m8ster Hoint sim8lated planetar7 missions in lo( Eart6
orbit$ 2ne o& t6e prinipal obHeti'es o& t6ese pro)rams s6o8ld be to b8ild a tradition o&
ooperati'e te6nial eCellene$
Z 3e6nolo)ial de'elopmentG8sin) state-o&-t6e-art robotis and arti&iial intelli)eneG
o& ro'ers, balloons, and airra&t &or t6e eCploration o& 5ars, and implementation o& t6e
&irst international ret8rn sample mission$ -oboti spaera&t t6at an ret8rn samples &rom
134
5ars an be tested on near-Eart6 asteroids and t6e 5oon$ Samples ret8rned &rom
are&8ll7 seleted re)ions o& t6e 5oon an 6a'e t6eir a)es determined and ontrib8te in
a &8ndamental (a7 to o8r 8nderstandin) o& t6e earl7 6istor7 o& t6e Eart6$
Z %8rt6er de'elopment o& te6nolo)ies to man8&at8re &8el and oCidiIer o8t o& 5artian
materials$ In one estimate, based on a protot7pe instr8ment desi)ned b7 -obert @8brin
and ollea)8es at t6e 5artin 5arietta +orporation, se'eral kilo)rams o& 5artian soil an
be a8tomatiall7 ret8rned to Eart6 8sin) a modest and reliable !elta la8n6 'e6ile, all
&or no more t6an a son) =omparati'el7 speakin)<$
Z Sim8lations on Eart6 o& lon)-d8ration trips to 5ars, onentratin) on potential soial
and ps76olo)ial problems$
Z #i)oro8s p8rs8it o& ne( te6nolo)ies s86 as onstant-t6r8st prop8lsion to )et 8s to
5ars K8ikl7? t6is ma7 be essential i& t6e radiation or miro)ra'it7 6aIards make one-
7ear =or lon)er< &li)6t times too risk7$
Z Intensi'e st8d7 o& near-Eart6 asteroids, (6i6 ma7 pro'ide s8perior intermediate-
timesale obHeti'es &or 68man eCploration t6an does t6e 5oon$
Z , )reater emp6asis on sieneGinl8din) t6e &8ndamental sienes be6ind spae
eCploration, and t6e t6oro8)6 anal7sis o& data alread7 obtainedGb7 N,S, and ot6er
spae a)enies$
36ese reommendations add 8p to a &ration o& t6e &8ll ost o& a 68man mission to 5ars and
Gspread o8t o'er a deade or so and done Hointl7 (it6 ot6er nationsGa &ration o& 8rrent spae
b8d)ets$ B8t, i& implemented, t6e7 (o8ld 6elp 8s to make a8rate ost estimates and better
assessment o& t6e dan)ers and bene&its$ 36e7 (o8ld permit 8s to maintain 'i)oro8s pro)ress
to(ard 68man eCpeditions to 5ars (it6o8t premat8re ommitment to an7 spei&i mission
6ard(are$ 5ost, per6aps all, o& t6ese reommendations 6a'e ot6er H8sti&iations, e'en i& *e (ere
s8re (ed be 8nable to send 68mans to an7 ot6er (orld in t6e neCt &e( deades$ ,nd a stead7
dr8mbeat o& aomplis6ments inreasin) t6e &easibilit7 o& 68man 'o7a)es to 5ars (o8ldGin t6e
minds o& man7 at leastGombat (idespread pessimism abo8t t6e &8t8re$
THERE'S SOMETHING MORE) 36ereAs a set o& less tan)ible ar)8ments, man7 o& (6i6, I &reel7
admit, I &ind attrati'e and resonant$ Spae&li)6t speaks to somet6in) deep inside 8sGman7 o&
8s, i& not all$ ,n emer)in) osmi perspeti'e, an impro'ed 8nderstandin) o& o8r plae in t6e
1ni'erse, a 6i)6l7 'isible pro)ram a&&etin) o8r 'ie( o& o8rsel'es mi)6t lari&7 t6e &ra)ilit7 o&
o8r planetar7 en'ironment and t6e ommon peril and responsibilit7 o& all t6e nations and
peoples o& Eart6$ ,nd 68man missions to 5ars (o8ld pro'ide 6ope&8l prospets, ri6 in
ad'ent8re, &or t6e (anderers amon) 8s, espeiall7 t6e 7o8n)$ E'en 'iario8s eCploration 6as
soial 8tilit7$
I repeatedl7 &ind t6at (6en I )i'e talks on t6e &8t8re o& t6e spae pro)ramGto 8ni'ersities,
b8siness and militar7 )ro8ps, pro&essional or)aniIationsGt6e a8dienes are m86 less patient
(it6 pratial, real-(orld politial and eonomi obstales t6an 1$ 36e7 lon) to s(eep a(a7 t6e
135
impediments, to reapt8re t6e )lor7 da7s o& #ostok and ,pollo, to )et on (it6 it and one more
tread ot6er (orlds$ *e did it be&ore? (e an do it a)ain, t6e7 sa7$ B8t, I a8tion m7sel&, t6ose
(6o attend s86 talks are sel&-seleted spae ent68siasts$
In 1969, less t6an 6al& t6e ,merian people t6o8)6t t6e ,pollo pro)ram (as (ort6 t6e ost$
B8t on t6e t(ent7-&i&t6 anni'ersar7 o& t6e 5oon landin), t6e n8mber 6ad risen to t(o t6irds$
!espite its problems, N,S, (as rated as doin) a )ood-to-eCellent Hob b7 63 perent o&
,merians$ *it6 no re&erene to ost, 75 perent o& ,merians =aordin) to a +BS Ne(s poll<
&a'ored Bt6e 1nited States sendin) astrona8ts to eCplore 5ars$A %or 7o8n) ad8lts, t6e &i)8re (as
6; perent$ I t6ink BeCploreB is t6e operati'e (ord$
It is no aident t6at, (6ate'er t6eir 68man &la(s, and 6o( e'er morib8nd t6e 68man spae
pro)ram 6as beome =a trend t6at t6e 48bble Spae 3elesope repair mission ma7 6a'e 6elped to
re'erse<, astrona8ts and osmona8ts are still (idel7 re)arded as 6eroes o& o8r speies$ ,
sienti&i ollea)8e tells me abo8t a reent trip to t6e Ne( /8inea 6i)6lands (6ere s6e 'isited a
stone a)e 8lt8re 6ardl7 ontated b7 *estern i'iliIation$ 36e7 (ere i)norant o& (rist(at6es,
so&t drinks, and &roIen &ood$ B8t t6e7 kne( abo8t ,pollo 11$ 36e7 kne( t6at 68mans 6ad
(alked on t6e 5oon$ 36e7 kne( t6e names o& ,rmstron) and ,ldrin and +ollins$ 36e7 (anted
to kno( (6o (as 'isitin) t6e 5oon t6ese da7s$
0roHets t6at are &8t8re-oriented, t6at, despite t6eir politial di&&i8lties, an be ompleted
onl7 in some distant deade are ontin8in) reminders t6at t6ere (ill be a &8t8re$ *innin) a
&oot6old on ot6er (orlds (6ispers in o8r ears t6at (eAre more t6an 0its or Serbs or 3on)ans:
*eAre 68mans$
ECplorator7 spae&li)6t p8ts sienti&i ideas, sienti&i t6inkin), and sienti&i 'oab8lar7 in
t6e p8bli e7e$ It ele'ates t6e )eneral le'el o& intellet8al inK8ir7$ 36e idea t6at (eA'e no(
8nderstood somet6in) ne'er )rasped b7 an7one (6o e'er li'ed be&oreGt6at eC6ilaration,
espeiall7 intense &or t6e sientists in'ol'ed, b8t pereptible to nearl7 e'er7oneGpropa)ates
t6ro8)6 t6e soiet7, bo8nes o&& (alls, and omes bak at 8s$ It eno8ra)es 8s to address
problems in ot6er &ields t6at 6a'e also ne'er be&ore been sol'ed$ It inreases t6e )eneral sense o&
optimism in t6e soiet7$ It )i'es 8rren7 to ritial t6inkin) o& t6e sort 8r)entl7 needed i& (e are
to sol'e 6it6erto intratable soial iss8es$ It 6elps stim8late a ne( )eneration o& sientists$ 36e
more siene in t6e media-espeiall7 i& met6ods are desribed, as (ell as onl8sions and
impliations-t6e 6ealt6ier, I belie'e, t6e soiet7 is$ 0eople e'er7(6ere 68n)er to 8nderstand$
WHEN I WAS A CHILD, m7 most eC8ltant dreams (ere abo8t &l7in)Gnot in some ma6ine, b8t all
b7 m7sel&$ I (o8ld be skippin) or 6oppin), and slo(l7 I o8ld p8ll m7 traHetor7 6i)6er$ It
(o8ld take lon)er to &all bak to t6e )ro8nd$ Soon I (o8ld be on s86 a 6i)6 ar t6at I (o8ldnAt
ome do(n at all$ I (o8ld ali)6t like a )ar)o7le in a ni6e near t6e pinnale o& a sk7sraper, or
)entl7 settle do(n on a lo8d$ In t6e dreamG(6i6 I m8st 6a'e 6ad in its man7 'ariations at
least a 68ndred timesGa6ie'in) &li)6t reK8ired a ertain ast o& mind$ ItAs impossible to
desribe it in (ords, b8t I an remember (6at it (as like to t6is da7$ :o8 did somet6in) inside
7o8r 6ead and at t6e pit o& 7o8r stoma6, and t6en 7o8 o8ld li&t 7o8rsel& 8p b7 an e&&ort o& (ill
alone, 7o8r limbs 6an)in) limpl7$ 2&& 7o8Ad soar$
136
I kno( man7 people 6a'e 6ad similar dreams$ 5a7be most people$ 5a7be e'er7one$
0er6aps it )oes bak 10 million 7ears or more, (6en o8r anestors (ere )rae&8ll7 &lin)in)
t6emsel'es &rom bran6 to bran6 in t6e prime'al &orest$ , (is6 to soar like t6e birds moti'ated
man7 o& t6e pioneers o& &li)6t, inl8din) .eonardo da #ini and t6e *ri)6t brot6ers$ 5a7be
t6atAs part o& t6e appeal o& spae&li)6t, too$
In orbit abo8t an7 (orld, or in interplanetar7 &li)6t, 7o8 are literall7 (ei)6tless$ :o8 an
propel 7o8rsel& to t6e spaera&t eilin) (it6 a sli)6t p8s6 o&& t6e &loor$ :o8 an )o t8mblin)
t6ro8)6 t6e air do(n t6e lon) aCis o& t6e spaera&t$ 48mans eCperiene (ei)6tlessness as Ho7?
t6is 6as been reported b7 almost e'er7 astrona8t and osmona8t$ B8t bea8se spaera&t are still
so small, and bea8se spae B(alksB 6a'e been done (it6 eCtreme a8tion, no 68man 6as 7et
enHo7ed t6is (onder and )lor7: propellin) 7o8rsel& b7 an almost impereptible p8s6, (it6 no
ma6iner7 dri'in) 7o8, 8ntet6ered, 6i)6 8p into t6e sk7, into t6e blakness o& interplanetar7
spae$ :o8 beome a li'in) satellite o& t6e Eart6, or a 68man planet o& t6e S8n$
0lanetar7 eCploration satis&ies o8r inlination &or )reat enterprises and (anderin)s and
K8ests t6at 6as been (it6 8s sine o8r da7s as 68nters and )at6erers on t6e East ,&rian
sa'anna6s a million 7ears a)o$ B7 6aneGit is possible, I sa7, to ima)ine man7 skeins o&
6istorial a8salit7 in (6i6 t6is (o8ld not 6a'e transpiredGin o8r a)e (e are able to be)in
a)ain$
ECplorin) ot6er (orlds emplo7s preisel7 t6e same K8alities o& darin), plannin),
ooperati'e enterprise, and 'alor t6at mark t6e &inest in t6e militar7 tradition$ Ne'er mind t6e
ni)6t la8n6 o& an ,pollo spaera&t bo8nd &or anot6er (orld$ 36at makes t6e onl8sion
&ore)one$ *itness mere %-14s takin) o&& &rom adHaent &li)6t deks, )rae&8ll7 antin) le&t and
ri)6t, a&terb8rners &lamin), and t6ereAs somet6in) t6at s(eeps 7o8 a(a7Gor at least it does me$
,nd no amo8nt o& kno(led)e o& t6e potential ab8ses o& arrier task &ores an a&&et t6e dept6 o&
t6at &eelin)$ It simpl7 speaks to anot6er part o& me$ It doesnAt (ant reriminations or politis$ It
H8st (ants to &l7$
BI $ $ $ 6ad ambition not onl7 to )o &art6er t6an an7one 6ad done be&ore,B (rote +aptain
>ames +ook, t6e ei)6teent6-ent8r7 eCplorer o& t6e 0ai&i, Bb8t as &ar as it (as possible &or man
to )o$B 3(o ent8ries later, :8ri -omanenko, on ret8rnin) to Eart6 a&ter (6at (as t6en t6e
lon)est spae &li)6t in 6istor7, said B36e +osmos is a ma)net $ $ $ 2ne 7o8A'e been t6ere, all 7o8
an t6ink o& is 6o( to )et bak$B
E'en >ean->aK8es -o8ssea8, no ent68siast o& te6nolo)7, &elt it:
36e stars are &ar abo'e 8s? (e need preliminar7 instr8tion, instr8ments and ma6ines, (6i6 are
like so man7 immense ladders enablin) 8s to approa6 t6em and brin) t6em (it6in o8r )rasp$
B36e &8t8re possibilities o& spae-tra'el,B (rote t6e p6ilosop6er Bertrand -8ssell in 1959,
(6i6 are no( le&t mainl7 to 8n&o8nded &antas7, o8ld be more soberl7 treated (it6o8t easin) to
be interestin) and o8ld s6o( to e'en t6e most ad'ent8ro8s o& t6e 7o8n) t6at a (orld (it6o8t (ar
137
need not be a (orld (it6o8t ad'ent8ro8s and 6aIardo8s )lor7$
1
3o t6is kind o& ontest t6ere is no
limit$ Ea6 'itor7 is onl7 a prel8de to anot6er, and no bo8ndaries an be set to rational 6ope$
In t6e lon) r8n, t6eseGmore t6an an7 o& t6e BpratialB H8sti&iations onsidered earlierG
ma7 be t6e reasons (e (ill )o to 5ars and ot6er (orlds$ In t6e meantime, t6e most important
step (e an take to(ard 5ars is to make si)ni&iant pro)ress on Eart6$ E'en modest
impro'ements in t6e soial, eonomi, and politial problems t6at o8r )lobal i'iliIation no(
&aes o8ld release enormo8s reso8res, bot6 material and 68man, &or ot6er )oals$
36ereAs plent7 o& 6o8se(ork to be done 6ere on Eart6, and o8r ommitment to it m8st be
stead&ast$ B8t (eAre t6e kind o& speies t6at needs a &rontierG&or &8ndamental biolo)ial reasons$
E'er7 time 68manit7 stret6es itsel& and t8rns a ne( orner, it reei'es a Holt o& prod8ti'e
'italit7 t6at an arr7 it &or ent8ries$
36ereAs a ne( (orld neCt door$ ,nd (e kno( 6o( to )et t6ere$
C H A P T E R 17
-213INE
1
-8ssellAs p6rase is note(ort67: Bad'ent8ro8s and 6aIardo8s )lor7$B E'en i& (e o8ld make 68man spae&li)6t risk-&ree-and o&
o8rse (e annot-it mi)6t be o8nterprod8ti'e$ 36e 6aIard is an inseparable omponent o& t6e )lor7$
13;
IN3E-0.,NE3,-:
#I2.EN+E

It is a la( o& nat8re t6at Eart6 and all ot6er bodies s6o8ld remain in
t6eir proper plaes and be mo'ed &rom t6em onl7 b7 'iolene$
G,-IS323.E =3;4-3"" B$+$<, 04:SI+S
T6ere (as somet6in) &8nn7 abo8t Sat8rn$ *6en, in 1610, /alileo 8sed t6e (orldAs &irst
astronomial telesope to 'ie( t6e planetGt6en t6e most distant (orld kno(nG6e &o8nd t(o
appenda)es, one on eit6er side$ 4e likened t6em to B6andles$B 2t6er astronomers alled t6em
Bears$B 36e +osmos 6olds man7 (onders, b8t a planet (it6 H8) ears is disma7in)$ /alileo (ent
to 6is )ra'e (it6 t6is biIarre matter 8nresol'ed$
,s t6e 7ears passed, obser'ers &o8nd t6e ears $ $ $ *ell, (aCin) and (anin)$ E'ent8all7, it
beame lear t6at (6at /alileo 6ad diso'ered (as an eCtremel7 t6in rin) t6at s8rro8nds Sat8rn
at its eK8ator b8t to86es it no(6ere$ In some 7ears, bea8se o& t6e 6an)in) orbital positions o&
Eart6 and Sat8rn, t6e rin) 6ad been seen ed)e-on and, bea8se o& its t6inness, it seemed to
disappear$ In ot6er 7ears, it 6ad been 'ie(ed more &ae-oil, and t6e BearsB )re( bi))er$ B8t (6at
does it mean t6at t6ereAs a rin) aro8nd Sat8rnD , t6in, &lat, solid plate (it6 a 6ole 8t o8t &or t6e
planet to &it intoD *6ere does "(a" ome &romD
36is line o& inK8ir7 (ill s6ortl7 take 8s to (orld-s6atterin) ollisions, to t(o K8ite di&&erent
perils &or o8r speies, and to a reasonGbe7ond t6ose alread7 desribedGt6at (e m8st, &or o8r
'er7 s8r'i'al, be o8t t6ere amon) t6e planets$
*e no( kno( t6at t6e rin)s =emp6atiall7 pl8ral< o& Sat8rn are a 'ast 6orde o& tin7 ie
(orlds, ea6 on its separate orbit, ea6 bo8nd to Sat8rn b7 t6e )iant planetAs )ra'it7$ In siIe,
t6ese (orldlets ran)e &rom partiles o& &ine d8st to 6o8ses$ None is bi) eno8)6 to p6oto)rap6
e'en &rom lose &l7b7s$ Spaed o8t in an eCK8isite set o& &ine onentri irles, somet6in) like
139
t6e )roo'es on a p6ono)rap6 reord =(6i6 in realit7 make, o& o8rse, a spiral<, t6e rin)s (ere
&irst re'ealed in t6eir tr8e maHest7 b7 t6e t(o Vo$ager spaera&t in t6eir 19;0N;1 &l7b7s$ In o8r
ent8r7, t6e ,rt !eo rin)s o& Sat8rn 6a'e beome an ion o& t6e &8t8re$
,t a sienti&i meetin) in t6e late 1960s, I (as asked to s8mmariIe t6e o8tstandin)
problems in planetar7 siene$ 2ne, I s8))ested, (as t6e K8estion o& (67, o& all t6e planets,
onl7 Sat8rn 6ad rin)s$ 36is, Vo$ager diso'ered, is a nonK8estion$ All 5our )iant planets in o8r
Solar S7stemG >8piter, Sat8rn, 1ran8s, and Nept8neGin &at 6a'e rin)s$ B8t no one kne( it
t6en$
Ea6 rin) s7stem 6as distinti'e &eat8res$ >8piterAs is ten8o8s and made mainl7 o& dark, 'er7
small partiles$ 36e bri)6t rin)s o& Sat8rn are omposed mainl7 o& &roIen (ater? t6ere are
t6o8sands o& separate rin)s 6ere, some t(isted, (it6 stran)e, d8sk7, spoke-like markin)s
&ormin) and dissipatin)$ 36e dark rin)s o& 1ran8s seem to be omposed o& elemental arbon
and or)ani mole8lesGsomet6in) like 6aroal or 6imne7 soot? 1ran8s 6as nine main rin)s, a
&e( o& (6i6 sometime seem to Bbreat6e,B eCpandin) and ontratin)$ Nept8neAs rin)s are t6e
most ten8o8s o& all, 'ar7in) so m86 in t6ikness t6at, (6en deteted &rom Eart6, t6e7 appear
onl7 as ars and inomplete irles$ , n8mber o& rin)s seem to be maintained b7 t6e
)ra'itational t8)s o& t(o s6ep6erd moons, one a little nearer and t6e ot6er a little &art6er &rom
t6e planet t6an t6e rin)$ Ea6 rin) s7stem displa7s its o(n, appropriatel7 8neart6l7, bea8t7$
4o( do rin)s &ormD 2ne possibilit7 is tides: I& an errant (orld passes lose to a planet, t6e
interloperAs near side is )ra'itationall7 p8lled to(ard t6e planet more t6an its &ar side? i& it omes
lose eno8)6, i& its internal o6esion is lo( eno8)6, it an be literall7 torn to piees$
2asionall7 (e see t6is 6appenin) to omets as t6e7 pass too lose to >8piter, or t6e S8n$
,not6er possibilit7, emer)in) &rom t6e Vo$ager reonnaissane o& t6e o8ter Solar S7stem, is t6is:
-in)s are made (6en (orlds ollide and moons are smas6ed to smit6ereens$ Bot6 me6anisms
ma7 6a'e pla7ed a role$
36e spae bet(een t6e planets is tra'ersed b7 an odd olletion o& ro)8e (orldlets, ea6 in
orbit abo8t t6e S8n$ , &e( are as bi) as a o8nt7 or e'en a state? man7 more 6a'e s8r&ae areas
like t6ose o& a 'illa)e or a to(n$ 5ore little ones are &o8nd t6an bi) ones, and t6e7 ran)e in siIe
do(n to partiles o& d8st$ Some o& t6em tra'el on lon), stret6ed-o8t elliptial pat6s, (6i6 make
t6em periodiall7 ross t6e orbit o& one or more planets$
2asionall7, 8nl8kil7, t6ereAs a (orld in t6e (a7$ 36e ollision an s6atter and p8l'eriIe
bot6 t6e interloper and t6e moon t6atAs 6it =or at least t6e re)ion aro8nd )ro8nd Iero<$ 36e
res8ltin) debrisGeHeted &rom t6e moon b8t not so &ast-mo'in) as to esape &rom t6e planetAs
)ra'it7Gma7 &orm, &or a time, a ne( rin)$ ItAs made o& (6ate'er t6e ollidin) bodies (ere made
o&, b8t 8s8all7 more o& t6e tar)et moon t6an t6e ro)8e impator$ I& t6e ollidin) (orlds are i7,
t6e net res8lt (ill be rin)s o& ie partiles? i& t6e7Are made o& or)ani mole8les, t6e res8lt (ill be
rin)s o& or)ani partiles =(6i6 (ill slo(l7 be proessed b7 radiation into arbon<$ ,ll t6e mass
in t6e rin)s o& Sat8rn is no more t6an A(o8ld res8lt &rom t6e omplete impat p8l'eriIation o& a
sin)le i7 moon$ 36e disinte)ration o& small moons an like(ise ao8nt &or t6e rin) s7stems o&
t6e t6ree ot6er )iant planets$
140
1nless itAs 'er7 lose to its planet, a s6attered moon )rad8all7 rea8m8lates =or at least a
&air &ration o& it does<$ 36e piees, bi) and small, still in approCimatel7 t6e same orbit as t6e
moon (as be&ore t6e impat, &all to)et6er 6elter-skelter$ *6at 8sed to be a piee o& t6e ore is
no( at t6e s8r&ae, and 'ie 'ersa$ 36e res8ltin) 6od)epod)e s8r&aes mi)6t seem 'er7 odd$
5iranda, one o& t6e moons o& 1ran8s, looks disonertin)l7 H8mbled and ma7 6a'e 6ad s86 an
ori)in$
36e ,merian planetar7 )eolo)ist E8)ene S6oemaker proposes t6at man7 moons in t6e
o8ter Solar S7stem 6a'e been anni6ilated and re&ormedGnot H8st one b8t se'eral times ea6
o'er t6e 4$5 billion 7ears sine t6e S8n and t6e planets ondensed o8t o& interstellar )as and d8st$
36e pit8re emer)in) &rom t6e Vo$ager reonnaissane o& t6e o8ter Solar S7stem is o& (orlds
(6ose plaid and lonel7 'i)ils are spasmodiall7 tro8bled b7 interlopers &rom spae? o& (orld-
s6atterin) ollisions? and o& moons re-&ormin) &rom debris, reonstit8tin) t6emsel'es like
p6oeniCes &rom t6eir o(n as6es$
B8t a moon t6at li'es 'er7 lose to a planet annot re-&orm i& it is p8l'eriIedGt6e
)ra'itational tides o& t6e nearb7 planet pre'ent it$ 36e res8ltin) debris, one spread o8t into a
rin) s7stem, mi)6t be 'er7 lon)-li'edGat least b7 t6e standard o& a 68man li&etime$ 0er6aps
man7 o& t6e small, inonspi8o8s moons no( orbitin) t6e )iant planets (ill one da7 blossom
&ort6 into 'ast and lo'el7 rin)s$
36ese ideas are s8pported b7 t6e appearane o& a n8mber o& satellites in t6e Solar S7stem$
06obos, t6e inner moon o& 5ars, 6as a lar)e rater named Stikne7? 5imas, an inner moon o&
Sat8rn, 6as a bi) one named 4ers6el$ 36ese ratersGlike t6ose on o8r o(n 5oon and, indeed,
t6ro8)6o8t t6e Solar S7stemGare prod8ed b7 ollisions$ ,n interloper smas6es into a bi))er
(orld and makes an immense eCplosion at t6e point o& impat, , bo(l-s6aped rater is
eCa'ated, and t6e smaller impatin) obHet is destro7ed$ I& t6e interlopers t6at d8) o8t t6e
Stikne7 and 4ers6el raters 6ad been onl7 a little lar)er, t6e7 (o8ld 6a'e 6ad eno8)6 ener)7
to blo( 06obos and 5imas to bits$ 36ese moons barel7 esaped t6e osmi (rekin) ball$ 5an7
ot6ers did not$
E'er7 time a (orld is smas6ed into, t6ereAs one less interloperGsomet6in) like a
demolition derb7 on t6e sale o& t6e Solar S7stem, a (ar o& attrition$ 36e 'er7 &at t6at man7
s86 ollisions 6a'e o8rred means t6at t6e ro)8e (orldlets 6a'e been lar)el7 8sed 8p$ 36ose
on ir8lar traHetories aro8nd t6e S8n, t6ose t6at donAt interset t6e orbits o& ot6er (orlds, (ill
be 8nlikel7 to smas6 into a planet$ 36ose on 6i)6l7 elliptial traHetories, t6ose t6at ross t6e
orbits o& ot6er planets, *ill sooner or later ollide or, b7 a near miss, be )ra'itationall7 eHeted
&rom t6e Solar S7stem$
36e planets almost ertainl7 a8m8lated &rom (orldlets (6i6 in t8rn 6ad ondensed o8t
o& a )reat &lat lo8d o& )as and d8st S8rro8ndin) t6e S8nGt6e sort o& lo8d t6at an no( be
seen aro8nd 7o8n) nearb7 stars$ So, in t6e earl7 6istor7 o& t6e solar S7stem be&ore ollisions
leaned t6in)s 8p, t6ere s6o8ld 6a'e been man7 more (orldlets t6an (e see toda7$
Indeed, t6ere is lear e'idene &or t6is in o8r o(n bak7ard: I& (e o8nt 8p t6e interloper
(orldlets in o8r nei)6bor6ood in spae, (e an estimate 6o( o&ten t6e7All 6it t6e 5oon$ .et 8s
make t6e 'er7 modest ass8mption t6at t6e pop8lation o& interlopers 6as ne'er been smaller t6an
141
it is toda7$ *e an t6en al8late 6o( man7 raters t6ere s6o8ld be on t6e 5oon$ 36e n8mber (e
&i)8re t8rns o8t to be m86 less t6an t6e n8mber (e see on t6e 5oonAs ra'a)ed 6i)6lands$ 36e
8neCpeted pro&8sion o& raters on t6e 5oon speaks to 8s o& an earlier epo6 (6en t6e Solar
S7stem (as in (ild t8rmoil, 68rnin) (it6 (orlds on ollision traHetories$ 36is makes )ood
sense, bea8se t6e7 &ormed &rom t6e a))re)ation o& m86 smaller (orldletsG(6i6 t6emsel'es
6ad )ro(n o8t o& interstellar d8st$ %o8r billion 7ears a)o, t6e l8nar impats (ere 68ndreds o&
times more &reK8ent t6an t6e7 are toda7? and 4$5 billion 7ears a)o, (6en t6e planets (ere still
inomplete, ollisions 6appened per6aps a billion times more o&ten t6an in o8r bealmed epo6$
36e 6aos ma7 6a'e been relie'ed b7 m86 more &lambo7ant rin) s7stems t6an )rae t6e
planets toda7$ I& t6e7 6ad small moons in t6at time, t6e Eart6, 5ars, and t6e ot6er small planets
ma7 also 6a'e been adorned (it6 rin)s$
36e most satis&ator7 eCplanation o& t6e ori)in o& o8r o(n 5oon, based on its 6emistr7 =as
re'ealed b7 samples ret8rned &rom t6e Apollo missions<, is t6at it (as &ormed almost 4$5 billion
7ears a)o, (6en a (orld t6e siIe o& 5ars str8k t6e Eart6$ 586 o& o8r planetAs rok7 mantle
(as red8ed to d8st and 6ot )as and blasted into spae$ Some o& t6e debris, in o:-bit aro8nd t6e
Eart6, t6en )rad8all7 rea8m8latedGatom b7 atom, bo8lder b7 bo8lder$ I& t6at 8nkno(n
impatin) (orld 6ad been onl7 a little lar)er, t6e res8lt (o8ld 6a'e been t6e obliteration o& t6e
Eart6$ 0er6aps t6ere one (ere ot6er (orlds in o8r Solar S7stemGper6aps e'en (orlds on
(6i6 li&e (as stirrin)G6it b7 some demon (orldlet, 8tterl7 demolis6ed, and o& (6i6 toda7 (e
6a'e not e'en an intimation$
36e emer)in) pit8re o& t6e earl7 Solar S7stem does not resemble a statel7 pro)ression o&
e'ents desi)ned to &orm t6e Eart6$ Instead, it looks as i& o8r planet (as made, and s8r'i'ed, b7
mere l8k7 6ane,
1
amid 8nbelie'able 'iolene$ 28r (orld does not seem to 6a'e been s8lpted
b7 a master ra&tsman$ 4ere too, t6ere is no 6int o& a 1ni'erse made &or 8s$
THE DWINDLING SUPPLY o& (orldlets is toda7 'ario8sl7 labeled: asteroids, omets, small moons$
B8t t6ese are arbitrar7 ate)oriesGreal (orldlets are able to brea6 t6ese 68man-made
partitions$ Some asteroids =t6e (ord means Bstarlike,B (6i6 t6e7 ertainl7 are not< are rok7,
ot6ers metalli, still ot6ers ri6 in or)ani matter$ None is bi))er t6an 1,000 kilometers aross$
36e7 are &o8nd mainl7 in a belt bet(een t6e orbits o& 5ars and >8piter$ ,stronomers one
t6o8)6t t6e Bmain-beltB asteroids (ere t6e remains o& a demolis6ed (orld, b8t, as IA'e been
desribin), anot6er idea is no( more &as6ionable: 36e Solar S7stem (as one &illed (it6
asteroid-like (orlds, some o& (6i6 (ent into b8ildin) t6e planets$ 2nl7 in t6e asteroid belt, near
>8piter, did t6e )ra'itational tides o& t6is most massi'e planet pre'ent t6e nearb7 debris &rom
oalesin) into a ne( (orld$ 36e asteroids, instead o& representin) a (orld t6at one (as, seem
to be t6e b8ildin) bloks o& a (orld destined ne'er to be$
1
I& it 6ad not, per6aps t6ere (o8ld toda7 be anot6er planet, a little nearer to or &art6er &rom t6e S8n, on (6i6 ot6er, K8ite di&&erent
bein)s (o8ld be tr7in) to reonstr8t "(eir ori)ins$
14"
!o(n to kilometer siIe, t6ere ma7 be se'eral million asteroids, b8t, in t6e enormo8s 'ol8me
o& interplanetar7 spae, e'en t6atAs still &ar too &e( to a8se an7 serio8s 6aIard to spaera&t on
t6eir (a7 to t6e o8ter Solar S7stem$ 36e &irst main-belt asteroids, /aspra and Ida, (ere
p6oto)rap6ed, in 1991 and 1993 respeti'el7, b7 t6e %alileo spaera&t on its tort8o8s Ho8rne7
to >8piter$
5ain-belt asteroids mostl7 sta7 at 6ome$ 3o in'esti)ate t6em$ (e m8st )o and 'isit t6em, as
%alileo did$ +omets, on t6e ot6er 6and, sometimes ome and 'isit 8s, as 4alle7As +omet did
most reentl7 in 1910 and 19;6$ +omets are made mainl7 o& ie, pl8s smaller amo8nts o& rok7
and or)ani material$ *6en 6eated, t6e ie 'aporiIes, &ormin) t6e lon) and lo'el7 tails blo(n
o8t(ard b7 t6e solar (ind and t6e press8re o& s8nli)6t$ ,&ter man7 passa)es b7 t6e S8n, t6e ie
is all e'aporated, sometimes lea'in) a dead rok7 and or)ani (orld$ Sometimes t6e remainin)
partiles, t6e ie t6at 6eld t6em to)et6er no( )one, spread o8t in t6e ometAs orbit, )eneratin) a
debris trail aro8nd t6e S8n$
E'er7 time a bit o& ometar7 &l8&& t6e siIe o& a )rain o& sand enters t6e Eart6As atmosp6ere at
6i)6 speed, it b8rns 8p, prod8in) a momentar7 trail o& li)6t t6at Eart6bo8nd obser'ers all a
sporadi meteor or Bs6ootin) star$B Some disinte)ratin) omets 6a'e orbits t6at ross t6e Eart6As$
So e'er7 7ear, t6e Eart6, on its stead7 ir8mna'i)ation o& t6e S8n, also pl8n)es t6ro8)6 belts o&
orbitin) ometar7 debris$ *e ma7 t6en (itness a meteor s6o(er, or e'en a meteor stormGt6e
skies ablaIe (it6 t6e bod7 parts o& a omet$ %or eCample, t6e 0erseid meteors, seen on or abo8t
,8)8st 1" o& ea6 7ear, ori)inate in a d7in) omet alled S(i&t-38ttle$ B8t t6e bea8t7 o& a
meteor s6o(er s6o8ld not deei'e 8s: 36ere is a ontin88m t6at onnets t6ese s6immerin)
'isitors to o8r ni)6t skies (it6 t6e destr8tion o& (orlds$
, &e( asteroids no( and t6en )i'e o&& little p8&&s o& )as or e'en &orm a temporar7 tail,
s8))estin) t6at t6e7 are in transition bet(een ometdom and asteroid6ood$ Some small moons
)oin) aro8nd t6e planets are probabl7 apt8red asteroids or omets? t6e moons o& 5ars and t6e
o8ter satellites o& >8piter ma7 be in t6is ate)or7$
/ra'it7 smoot6s do(n e'er7t6in) t6at stiks o8t too &ar$ B8t onl7 in lar)e bodies is t6e
)ra'it7 eno8)6 to make mo8ntains and ot6er proHetions ollapse o& t6eir o(n (ei)6t, ro8ndin)
t6e (orld$ ,nd, indeed, (6en (e obser'e t6eir s6apes, almost al(a7s (e &ind t6at small
(orldlets are l8mp7, irre)8lar, potato-s6aped$
THERE ARE ASTRONOMERS (6ose idea o& a )ood time is to sta7 8p till da(n on a old,
moonless ni)6t takin) pit8res o& t6e sk7Gt6e same sk7 t6e7 p6oto)rap6ed t6e 7ear be&ore $ $ $
and t6e 7ear be&ore t6at$ I& t6e7 )ot it ri)6t last time, 7o8 mi)6t (ell ask, (67 are t6e7 doin) it
a)ainD 36e ans(er is: 36e sk7 6an)es$ In an7 )i'en 7ear t6ere mi)6t be (orldlets (6oll7
8nkno(n, ne'er seen be&ore, t6at approa6 t6e Eart6 and are spied b7 t6ese dediated obser'ers$
2n 5ar6 "5, 1993, a )ro8p o& asteroid and omet 68nters, lookin) at t6e p6oto)rap6i
6ar'est &rom an intermittentl7 lo8d7 ni)6t at 5o8nt 0alomar in +ali&ornia, diso'ered a &aint
elon)ated sm8d)e on t6eir &ilms$ It (as near a 'er7 bri)6t obHet in t6e sk7, t6e planet >8piter$
+arol7n and E8)ene S6oemaker and !a'id .e'7 t6en asked ot6er obser'ers to take a look$ 36e
143
sm8d)e t8rned o8t to be somet6in) astonis6in): some t(ent7 small, bri)6t obHets orbitin)
>8piter, one be6ind t6e ot6er, like pearls on a strin)$ +olleti'el7 t6e7 are alled +omet
S6oemaker-.e'7 9 =t6is is t6e nint6 time t6at t6ese ollaborators 6a'e to)et6er diso'ered a
periodi omet<$
B8t allin) t6ese obHets a omet is on&8sin)$ 36ere (as a 6orde o& t6em, probabl7 t6e
&ra)mented remains o& a sin)le, 6it6erto 8ndiso'ered, omet$ It silentl7 orbited t6e S8n &or 4
billion 7ears be&ore passin) too lose to >8piter and bein) apt8red, a &e( deades a)o, b7 t6e
)ra'it7 o& t6e Solar S7stemAs lar)est planet$ 2n >8l7 7, 199", it (as torn apart b7 >8piterAs
)ra'itational tides$
:o8 an reo)niIe t6at t6e inner part o& s86 a omet (o8ld be p8lled to(ard >8piter a little
more stron)l7 t6an t6e o8ter part, bea8se t6e inner part is loser to >8piter t6an t6e o8ter part$
36e di&&erene in p8ll is ertainl7 small$ 28r &eet are a little loser to t6e enter o& t6e Eart6 t6an
o8r 6eads, b8t (e are not in onseK8ene torn to piees b7 t6e Eart6As )ra'it7$ %or s86 tidal
disr8ption to 6a'e o8rred, t6e ori)inal omet m8st 6a'e been 6eld to)et6er 'er7 (eakl7$ Be&ore
&ra)mentation, it (as, (e t6ink, a loosel7 onsolidated mass o& ie, rok, and or)ani matter,
ma7be 10 kilometers =abo8t 6 miles< aross$
36e orbit o& t6is disr8pted omet (as t6en determined to 6i)6 preision$ Bet(een >8l7 16
and "", 1994, all t6e ometar7 &ra)ments, one a&ter anot6er, ollided (it6 >8piter$ 36e bi))est
piees seem to 6a'e been a &e( kilometers aross$ 36eir impats (it6 >8piter (ere speta8lar$
No one kne( be&ore6and (6at t6ese m8ltiple impats into t6e atmosp6ere and lo8ds o&
>8piter (o8ld do$ 0er6aps t6e ometar7 &ra)ments, s8rro8nded b7 6alos o& d8st, (ere m86
smaller t6an t6e7 seemed$ 2r per6aps t6e7 (ere not o6erent bodies at all, b8t loosel7
onsolidatedGsomet6in) like a 6eap o& )ra'el (it6 all t6e partiles tra'elin) t6ro8)6 spae
to)et6er, in nearl7 idential orbits$ I& eit6er o& t6ese possibilities (ere tr8e >8piter mi)6t s(allo(
t6e omets (it6o8t a trae$ 2t6er astronomers t6o8)6t t6ere (o8ld at least be bri)6t &ireballs and
)iant pl8mes as t6e ometar7 &ra)ments pl8n)ed into t6e atmosp6ere$ Still ot6ers s8))ested t6at
t6e dense lo8d o& &ine partiles aompan7in) t6e &ra)ments o& +omet S6oemaker-.e'7 9 into
>8piter (o8ld disr8pt t6e ma)netosp6ere o& >8piter or &orm a ne( rin)$
, omet t6is siIe s6o8ld impat >8piter, it is al8lated, onl7 one e'er7 t6o8sand 7ears$ ItAs
t6e astronomial e'ent not o& one li&etime, b8t o& a doIen$ Not6in) on t6is sale 6as o8rred
sine t6e in'ention o& t6e telesope$ So in mid >8l7 1994, in a bea8ti&8ll7 oordinated
international sienti&i e&&ort, telesopes all o'er t6e Eart6 and in spae t8rned to(ards >8piter$
,stronomers 6ad o'er a 7ear to prepare$ 36e traHetories o& t6e &ra)ments in t6eir orbits
aro8nd >8piter (ere estimated$ It (as diso'ered t6at t6e7 (o8ld all 6it >8piter$ 0reditions o& t6e
timin) (ere re&ined$ !isappointin)l7, t6e al8lations re'ealed t6at all impats (o8ld o8r on
t6e ni)6t side o& >8piter, t6e side in'isible &rom t6e Eart6 =alt6o8)6 aessible to t6e %alileo and
Vo$ager spaera&t in t6e o8ter Solar S7stem<$ B8t, 6appil7, all impats (o8ld o8r onl7 a &e(
min8tes be&ore t6e >o'ian da(n, be&ore t6e impat site (o8ld be arried b7 >8piterAs rotation into
t6e line o& si)6t &rom Eart6$
36e appointed moment &or t6e impat o& t6e &irst piee, %ra)ment ,, ame and (ent$ 36ere
(ere no reports &rom )ro8nd-based telesopes$ 0lanetar7 sientists stared (it6 inreasin) )loom
144
at a tele'ision monitor displa7in) t6e data transmitted to t6e Spae 3elesope Siene Instit8te in
Baltimore &rom t6e 48bble Spae 3elesope$ 36ere (as not6in) anomalo8s S68ttle astrona8ts
took time o&& &rom t6e reprod8tion o& &r8it &lies, &is6, and ne(ts to look at >8piter t6ro8)6
bino8lars$ 36e7 reported seein) not6in)$ 36e impat o& t6e millenni8m (as be)innin) to look
'er7 m86 like a &iIIle$
36en t6ere (as a report &rom a )ro8nd-based optial telesope in .a 0alma in t6e +anar7
Islands, &ollo(ed b7 anno8nements &rom a radiotelesope in >apan? &rom t6e E8ropean So8t6ern
2bser'ator7 in +6ile? and &rom a 1ni'ersit7 o& +6ia)o instr8ment in t6e &ri)id (astelands o&
t6e So8t6 0ole$ In Baltimore t6e 7o8n) sientists ro(din) aro8nd t6e 3# monitorGt6emsel'es
monitored b7 t6e ameras o& +NNGbe)an to see somet6in), and in eCatl7 t6e ri)6t plae on
>8piter$ :o8 o8ld (itness onsternation t8rn into p8IIlement, and t6en eC8ltation$ 36e7 6eered?
t6e7 sreamed? t6e7 H8mped 8p and do(n$ Smiles &illed t6e room$ 36e7 broke o8t t6e
6ampa)ne$ 4ere (as a )ro8p o& 7o8n) ,merian sientistsGabo8t a t6ird o& t6em, inl8din)
t6e team leader, 4eidi 4ammel, (omenGand 7o8 o8ld ima)ine 7o8n)sters all o'er t6e (orld
t6inkin) t6at it mi)6t be &8n to be a sientist, t6at t6is mi)6t be a )ood da7time Hob, or e'en a
means to spirit8al &8l&illment$
%or man7 o& t6e &ra)ments, obser'ers some(6ere on Eart6 notied t6e &ireball rise so
K8ikl7 and so 6i)6 t6at it o8ld be seen e'en t6o8)6 t6e impat site belo( it (as still in >o'ian
darkness$ 0l8mes asended and t6en &lattened into panake-like &orms$ Spreadin) o8t &rom t6e
point o& impat (e o8ld see so8nd and )ra'it7 (a'es, and a pat6 o& disoloration t6at &or t6e
lar)est &ra)ments beame as bi) as t6e Eart6$
Slammin) into >8piter at 60 kilometers a seond =130,000 miles an 6o8r<, t6e lar)e
&ra)ments on'erted t6eir kineti ener)7 partl7 into s6ok (a'es, partl7 into 6eat$ 36e
temperat8re in t6e &ireball (as estimated at t6o8sands o& de)rees$ Some o& t6e &ireballs and
pl8mes (ere &ar bri)6ter t6an all t6e rest o& >8piter p8t to)et6er$
*6at is t6e a8se o& t6e dark stains le&t a&ter t6e impatD It mi)6t be st8&& &rom t6e deep
lo8ds o& >8piter-&rom t6e re)ion to (6i6 )ro8nd-based obser'ers annot ordinaril7 see-t6at
(elled 8p and spread o8t$ 4o(e'er, t6e &ra)ments do not seem to 6a'e penetrated to s86
dept6s$ 2r t6e mole8les responsible &or t6e stains mi)6t 6a'e been in t6e ometar7 &ra)ments in
t6e &irst plae$ *e kno( &rom t6e Vega 1 and 2 So'iet missions and t6e %io""o mission o& t6e
E8ropean Spae ,)en7Gbot6 to 4alle7As +ometGt6at omets ma7 be as m86 as a K8arter
omposed o& ompleC or)ani mole8les$ 36e7 are t6e reason t6at t6e n8le8s o& 4alle7As +omet
is pit6 blak$ I& some o& t6e ometar7 or)anis s8r'i'ed t6e impat e'ents, t6e7 ma7 6a'e been
responsible &or t6e stain$ 2r, &inall7, t6e stain ma7 be d8e to or)ani matter not deli'ered b7 t6e
impatin) ometar7 &ra)ments, b8t s7nt6esiIed b7 t6eir s6ok (a'es &rom t6e atmosp6ere o&
>8piter$
Impat o& t6e &ra)ments o& +omet S6oemaker-.e'7 9 (it6 >8piter (as (itnessed on se'en
ontinents$ E'en amate8r astronomers (it6 small telesopes o8ld see t6e pl8mes and t6e
s8bseK8ent disoloration o& t6e >o'ian lo8ds$ >8st as sportin) e'ents are o'ered at all an)les b7
tele'ision ameras on t6e &ield and &rom a diri)ible 6i)6 o'er6ead, siC N,S, spaera&t
deplo7ed t6ro8)6o8t t6e Solar S7stem, (it6 di&&erent obser'ational speialties, reorded t6is
145
ne( (onderGt6e 1u;;le Spa7e /ele7ope, t6e !n"erna"ional 8l"ra4iole" Explorer, and t6e
Ex"reme 8l"ra4iole" Explorer all in Eart6 orbit? 1l7sses, takin) time o8t &rom it in'esti)ation o&
t6e So8t6 0ole o& t6e S8n? /alileo, on t6e (a7 to its o(n rendeI'o8s (it6 >8piter? and Vo$ager
2, &ar be7ond Nept8ne on its (a7 to t6e stars$ ,s t6e data are a8m8lated and anal7Ied, o8r
kno(led)e o& omets, o& >8piter, and o& t6e 'iolent ollisions o& (orlds s6o8ld all be
s8bstantiall7 impro'ed$
%or man7 sientistsGb8t espeiall7 &or +arol7n and E8)ene S6oemaker and !a'id .e'7G
t6ere (as somet6in) poi)nant abo8t t6e ometar7 &ra)ments, one a&ter t6e ot6er, makin) t6eir
deat6 pl8n)es into >8piter$ 36e7 6ad li'ed (it6 t6is omet, in a manner o& speakin), &or 16
mont6s, (at6ed it split, t6e piees, ens6ro8ded b7 lo8ds o& d8st, pla7in) 6ide-and-seek and
spreadin) o8t in t6eir orbits$ In a limited (a7, ea6 &ra)ment 6ad its o(n personalit7$ No(
t6e7Are all )one, ablated into mole8les and atoms in t6e 8pper atmosp6ere o& t6e Solar S7stemAs
lar)est planet$ In a (a7, (e almost mo8rn t6em$ B8t (eAre learnin) &rom t6eir &ier7 deat6s$ It is
per6aps some reass8rane to kno( t6at t6ere are a 68ndred trillion more o& t6em in t6e S8nAs
'ast treas8re-6o8se o& (orlds$
THERE ARE ABOUT !%% kno(n asteroids (6ose pat6s take t6em near t6e Eart6$ 36e7 are alled,
appropriatel7 eno8)6, Bnear-Eart6B asteroids$ 36eir detailed appearane =like t6at o& t6eir main-
belt o8sins< immediatel7 implies t6at t6e7 are t6e prod8ts o& a 'iolent ollisional 6istor7$ 5an7
o& t6em ma7 be t6e s6ards and remnants o& one-lar)er (orldlets$
*it6 a &e( eCeptions, t6e near-Eart6 asteroids are onl7 a &e( kilometers aross or smaller,
and take one to a &e( 7ears to make a ir8it aro8nd t6e S8n$ ,bo8t "0 perent o& t6em, sooner
or later, are bo8nd to 6it t6e Eart6G(it6 de'astatin) onseK8enes$ =B8t in astronom7, Bsooner
or laterB an enompass billions o& 7ears$< +ieroAs ass8rane t6at Bnot6in) o& 6ane or 6aIardB
is to be &o8nd in an absol8tel7 ordered and re)8lar 6ea'en is a pro&o8nd mispereption$ E'en
toda7, as +omet S6oemaker-.e'7 9As eno8nter (it6 >8piter reminds 8s, t6ere is ro8tine
interplanetar7 'iolene, alt6o8)6 not on t6e sale t6at marked t6e earl7 6istor7 o& t6e Solar
S7stem$
.ike main-belt asteroids, man7 near-Eart6 asteroids are rok7$ , &e( are mainl7 metal, and
it 6as been s8))ested t6at enormo8s re(ards mi)6t attend mo'in) s86 an asteroid into orbit
aro8nd t6e Eart6, and t6en s7stematiall7 minin) itGa mo8ntain o& 6i)6-)rade ore a &e(
68ndred miles o'er6ead$ 36e 'al8e o& platin8m-)ro8p metals alone in a sin)le s86 (orld 6as
been estimated as man7 trillions o& dollarsGalt6o8)6 t6e 8nit prie (o8ld pl8mmet
speta8larl7 i& s86 materials beame (idel7 a'ailable$ 5et6ods o& eCtratin) metals and
minerals &rom appropriate asteroids are bein) st8died, &or eCample b7 >o6n .e(is, a planetar7
sientist at t6e 1ni'ersit7 o& ,riIona$
Some near-Eart6 asteroids are ri6 in or)ani matter, apparentl7 preser'ed &rom t6e 'er7
earliest Solar S7stem$ Some 6a'e been &o8nd, b7 Ste'en 2stro o& t6e >et 0rop8lsion .aborator7,
to be do8ble, t(o bodies in ontat$ 0er6aps a lar)er (orld 6as broken in t(o as it passed t6ro8)6
t6e stron) )ra'itational tides o& a planet like >8piter? more interestin) is t6e possibilit7 t6at t(o
146
(orlds on similar orbits made a )entle o'ertakin) ollision and st8k$ 36is proess ma7 6a'e
been ke7 to t6e b8ildin) o& planets and t6e Eart6$ ,t least one asteroid =Ida, as 'ie(ed b7
%alileo< 6as its o(n small moon$ *e mi)6t )8ess t6at t(o asteroids in ontat and t(o asteroids
orbitin) one anot6er 6a'e related ori)ins$
Sometimes, (e 6ear abo8t an asteroid makin) a Bnear miss$B =*67 do (e all it a Bnear
missBD , Bnear 6itB is (6at (e reall7 mean$< B8t t6en (e read a little more are&8ll7, and it t8rns
o8t t6at its losest approa6 to t6e Eart6 (as se'eral 68ndreds o& t6o8sands or millions o&
kilometers$ 36at doesnAt o8ntGt6atAs too &ar a(a7, &art6er e'en t6an t6e 5oon$ I& (e 6ad an
in'entor7 o& all t6e near-Eart6 asteroids, inl8din) t6ose onsiderabl7 smaller t6an a kilometer
aross, (e o8ld proHet t6eir orbits into t6e &8t8re and predit (6i6 ones are potentiall7
dan)ero8s$ 36ere are an estimated ",000 o& t6em bi))er t6an a kilometer aross, o& (6i6 (e
6a'e at8all7 obser'ed onl7 a &e( perent$ 36ere are ma7be "00,000 bi))er t6an 100 meters in
diameter$
36e near-Eart6 asteroids 6a'e e'oati'e m7t6olo)ial names: 2rp6e8s, 4at6or, Iar8s,
,donis, ,pollo, +erber8s, E68&8, ,mor, 3antal8s, ,ten, 5idas, -a-S6alom, 06aet6on, 3o8tatis,
T8etIaloatl$ 36ere are a &e( o& speial eCplorator7 potentialG&or eCample, Nere8s$ In )eneral,
itAs m86 easier to )et onto and o&& o& near-Eart6 asteroids t6an t6e 5oon$ Nere8s, a tin7 (orld
abo8t a kilometer aross, is one o& t6e easiest$
1
It (o8ld be real eCploration o& a tr8l7 ne( (orld$
Some 68mans =all &rom t6e &ormer So'iet 1nion< 6a'e alread7 been in spae &or periods
lon)er t6an t6e entire ro8ndtrip time to Nere8s$ 36e roket te6nolo)7 to )et t6ere alread7
eCists$ ItAs a m86 smaller step t6an )oin) to 5ars or e'en, in se'eral respets, t6an ret8rnin) to
t6e 5oon$ I& somet6in) (ent (ron), t6o8)6, (e (o8ld be 8nable to r8n 6ome to sa&et7 in onl7
a &e( da7s$ In t6is respet, its le'el o& di&&i8lt7 lies some(6ere bet(een a 'o7a)e to 5ars and
one to t6e 5oon$
2& man7 possible &8t8re missions to Nere8s, t6ereAs one t6at takes 10 mont6s to )et t6ere
&rom Eart6, spends 30 da7s t6ere, and t6en reK8ires onl7 3 (eeks to ret8rn to 6ome$ *e o8ld
'isit Nere8s (it6 robots, orGi& (eAre 8p to itG(it6 68mans$ *e o8ld eCamine t6is little
(orldAs s6ape, onstit8tion, interior, past 6istor7, or)ani 6emistr7, osmi e'ol8tion, and
possible tie to omets$ *e o8ld brin) samples bak &or eCamination at leis8re in Eart6bo8nd
laboratories$ *e o8ld in'esti)ate (6et6er t6ere reall7 are ommeriall7 'al8able reso8resG
metals or mineralsGt6ere$ I& (e are e'er )oin) to send 68mans to 5ars, near-Eart6 asteroids
pro'ide a on'enient and appropriate intermediate )oalGto test o8t t6e eK8ipment and
eCplorator7 protools (6ile st8d7in) an almost (6oll7 8nkno(n little (orld$ 4ereAs a (a7 to )et
o8r &eet (et a)ain (6en (eAre read7 to reenter t6e osmi oean$
1
,steroid 1991>* 6as an orbit 'er7 m86 like t6e Eart6As and is e'en easier to )et to t6an 4660 Nere8s$ B8t its orbit seems too
similar to t6e Eart6As &or it to be a nat8ral obHet$ 0er6aps itAs some lost 8pper sta)e o& t6e Sa"urn V Apollo 5oon roket$
147
C H A P T E R 18
34E 5,-S4 2%
+,5,-IN,

QIRtAs too late to make an7 impro'ements no($ 36e 8ni'erse is &inis6ed?
t6e opestone is on, and t6e 6ips (ere arted o&& a million 7ears a)o$
G4E-5,N 5E.#I..E, MO>, .!#D, +4,03E- " =1;51<
14;
Camarina (as a it7 in so8t6ern Siil7, &o8nded b7 olonists &rom S7ra8se in 59; B$+$ ,
)eneration or t(o later, it (as t6reatened b7 a pestileneG&esterin), some said, in t6e adHaent
mars6$ =*6ile t6e )erm t6eor7 o& disease (as ertainl7 not (idel7 aepted in t6e anient (orld,
t6ere (ere 6ints-&or eCample, 5ar8s #arro in t6e &irst ent8r7 B$ +$ ad'ised eCpliitl7 a)ainst
b8ildin) ities near s(amps Bbea8se t6ere are bred ertain min8te reat8res (6i6 annot be
seen b7 t6e e7es, (6i6 &loat in t6e air and enter t6e bod7 t6ro8)6 t6e mo8t6 and nose and t6ere
a8se serio8s disease$B< 36e dan)er to +amarina (as )reat$ 0lans (ere dra(n to drain t6e mars6$
*6en t6e orale (as ons8lted, t6o8)6, it &orbade s86 a o8rse o& ation, o8nselin) patiene
instead$ B8t li'es (ere at stake, t6e orale (as i)nored, and t6e mars6 (as drained$ 36e
pestilene (as promptl7 6alted$ 3oo late, it (as reo)niIed t6at t6e mars6 6ad proteted t6e it7
&rom its enemiesGamon) (6om t6ere 6ad no( to be o8nted t6eir o8sins t6e S7ra8sans$ ,s in
,meria ",300 7ears later, t6e olonists 6ad K8arreled (it6 t6e mot6er o8ntr7$ In 55" B$+$, a
S7ra8san &ore rossed o'er t6e dr7 land (6ere t6e mars6 6ad been, sla8)6tered e'er7 man,
(oman, and 6ild, and raIed t6e it7$ 36e mars6 o& +amarina beame pro'erbial &or eliminatin)
a dan)er in s86 a (a7 as to 8s6er in anot6er, m86 (orse$
THE CRETACEOUS-TERTIARY COLLISION =or ollisionsGt6ere ma7 6a'e been more t6an one<
ill8minates t6e peril &rom asteroids and omets$ In seK8ene, a (orld-immolatin) &ire b8rned
'e)etation to a risp all o'er t6e planet? a stratosp6eri d8st lo8d so darkened t6e sk7 t6at
s8r'i'in) plants 6ad tro8ble makin) a li'in) &rom p6otos7nt6esis? t6ere (ere (orld(ide
&reeIin) temperat8res, torrential rains o& a8sti aids, massi'e depletion o& t6e oIone la7er, and,
to top it o&&, a&ter t6e Eart6 6ealed itsel& &rom t6ese assa8lts, a prolon)ed )reen6o8se (armin)
=bea8se t6e main impat seems to 6a'e 'olatiliIed a deep la7er o& sedimentar7 arbonates,
po8rin) 68)e amo8nts o& arbon dioCide into t6e air<$ It (as not a sin)le atastrop6e, b8t a
parade o& t6em, a onatenation o& terrors$ 2r)anisms (eakened b7 one disaster (ere &inis6ed
o&& b7 t6e neCt$ It is K8ite 8nertain (6et6er o8r i'iliIation (o8ld s8r'i'e e'en a onsiderabl7
less ener)eti ollision$
Sine t6ere are man7 more small asteroids t6an lar)e ones, r8n-o&-t6e-mill ollisions (it6
t6e Eart6 (ill be made b7 t6e little )87s$ B8t t6e lon)er 7o8Are prepared to (ait, t6e more
de'astatin) t6e impat 7o8 an eCpet$ 2n a'era)e, one e'er7 &e( 68ndred 7ears t6e Eart6 is
6it b7 an obHet abo8t 70 meters in diameter? t6e res8ltin) ener)7 released is eK8i'alent to t6e
lar)est n8lear (eapons eCplosion e'er detonated$ E'er7 10,000 7ears, (eAre 6it b7 a "00-meter
obHet t6at mi)6t ind8e serio8s re)ional limati e&&ets$ E'er7 million 7ears, an impat b7 a
bod7 o'er " kilometers in diameter o8rs, eK8i'alent to nearl7 a million me)atons o& 3N3Gan
eCplosion t6at (o8ld (ork a )lobal atastrop6e, killin) =8nless 8npreedented prea8tions (ere
taken< a si)ni&iant &ration o& t6e 68man speies$ , million me)atons o& 3N3 is 100 times t6e
eCplosi'e 7ield o& all t6e n8lear (eapons on t6e planet, i& sim8ltaneo8sl7 blo(n 8p$ !(ar&in)
e'en t6is, in a 68ndred million 7ears or so, 7o8 an bet on somet6in) like t6e +retaeo8s-
149
3ertiar7 e'ent, t6e impat o& a (orld 10 kilometers aross or bi))er$ 36e destr8ti'e ener)7
latent in a lar)e near-Eart6 asteroid d(ar&s an7t6in) else t6e 68man speies an )et its 6ands on$
,s &irst s6o(n b7 t6e ,merian planetar7 sientist +6ristop6er +67ba and 6is ollea)8es,
little asteroids or omets, a &e( tens o& meters aross, break and b8rn 8p on enterin) o8r
atmosp6ere$ 36e7 arri'e omparati'el7 o&ten b8t do no si)ni&iant 6arm$ Some idea o& 6o(
&reK8entl7 t6e7 enter t6e Eart6As atmosp6ere 6as been re'ealed b7 delassi&ied !epartment o&
!e&ense data obtained &rom speial satellites monitorin) t6e Eart6 &or landestine n8lear
eCplosions$ 36ere seem to 6a'e been 68ndreds o& small (orldlets =and at least one lar)er bod7<
impatin) in t6e last "0 7ears$ 36e7 did no 6arm$ B8t, (e need to be 'er7 s8re (e an
distin)8is6 a small ollidin) omet or asteroid &rom an atmosp6eri n8lear eCplosion$
+i'iliIation-t6reatenin) impats reK8ire bodies se'eral 68ndred meters aross, or more$ =,
meter is abo8t a 7ard? 100 meters is ro8)6l7 t6e len)t6 o& a &ootball &ield$< 36e7 arri'e
somet6in) like one e'er7 "00,000 7ears$ 28r i'iliIation is onl7 abo8t 10,000 7ears old, so (e
s6o8ld 6a'e no instit8tional memor7 o& t6e last s86 impat$ Nor do (e$
+omet S6oemaker-.e'7 9, in its s8ession o& &ier7 eCplosions on >8piter in >8l7 1994,
reminds 8s t6at s86 impats reall7 do o8r in o8r timeGand t6at t6e impat o& a bod7 a &e(
kilometers aross an spread debris o'er an area as bi) as t6e Eart6$ It (as a kind o& portent$
In t6e 'er7 (eek o& t6e S6oemaker-.e'7 impat, t6e Siene and Spae +ommittee o& t6e
1$S$ 4o8se o& -epresentati'es dra&ted le)islation t6at reK8ires N,S, Bin oordination (it6 t6e
!epartment o& !e&ense and t6e spae a)enies o& ot6er o8ntriesB to identi&7 and determine t6e
orbital 6arateristis o& all Eart6-approa6in) Bomets and asteroids t6at are )reater t6an 1
kilometer in diameter$B 36e (ork is to be ompleted b7 t6e 7ear "005$ S86 a sear6 pro)ram
6ad been ad'oated b7 man7 planetar7 sientists$ B8t it took t6e deat6 t6roes o& a omet to mo'e
it to(ard pratial implementation$
Spread o8t o'er t6e (aitin) time, t6e dan)ers o& asteroid ollision do not seem 'er7
(orrisome$ B8t i& a bi) impat 6appens, it (o8ld be an 8npreedented 68man atastrop6e$
36ereAs somet6in) like one 6ane in t(o t6o8sand t6at s86 a ollision (ill 6appen in t6e
li&etime o& a ne(born bab7$ 5ost o& 8s (o8ld not &l7 in an airplane i& t6e 6ane o& ras6in)
(ere one in t(o t6o8sand$ =In &at &or ommerial &li)6ts t6e 6ane is one in t(o million$ E'en
so, man7 people onsider t6is lar)e eno8)6 to (orr7 abo8t, or e'en to take o8t ins8rane &or$<
*6en o8r li'es are at stake, (e o&ten 6an)e o8r be6a'ior to arran)e more &a'orable odds$ 36ose
(6o donAt tend to be no lon)er (it6 8s$
0er6aps (e s6o8ld pratie )ettin) to t6ese (orldlets and di'ertin) t6eir orbits, s6o8ld t6e
6o8r o& need e'er arise$ 5el'ille not(it6standin), some o& t6e 6ips o& reation are still le&t, and
impro'ements e'identl7 need to be made$ ,lon) parallel and onl7 (eakl7 interatin) traks, t6e
planetar7 siene omm8nit7 and t6e 1$S$ and -8ssian n8lear (eapons laboratories, a(are o&
t6e &ore)oin) senarios, 6a'e been p8rs8in) t6ese K8estions: 6o( to monitor all siIable near-
Eart6 interplanetar7 obHets, 6o( to 6arateriIe t6eir p67sial and 6emial nat8re, 6o( to
predit (6i6 ones ma7 be on a &8t8re ollision traHetor7 (it6 Eart6, and, &inall7, 6o( to pre'ent
a ollision &rom 6appenin)$
150
36e -8ssian spae&li)6t pioneer Eonstantin 3siolko'sk7 ar)8ed a ent8r7 a)o t6at t6ere
m8st be bodies intermediate ill siIe bet(een t6e obser'ed lar)e asteroids and t6ose asteroidal
&ra)ments, t6e meteorites, t6at oasionall7 &all to Eart6$ 4e (rote abo8t li'in) on small
asteroids in interplanetar7 spae$ 4e did not 6a'e militar7 appliations in mind$ In t6e earl7
19;0s, t6o8)6, some in t6e 1$S$ (eapons establis6ment ar)8ed t6at t6e So'iets mi)6t 8se near-
Eart6 asteroids as &irst-strike (eapons? t6e alle)ed plan (as alled BI'anAs 4ammer$B
+o8ntermeas8res (ere needed$ B8t, at t6e same time, it (as s8))ested, ma7be it (asnAt a bad
idea &or t6e 1nited States to learn 6o( to 8se small (orlds as (eapons o& its o(n$ 36e !e&ense
!epartmentAs Ballisti 5issile !e&ense 2r)aniIation, t6e s8essor to t6e Star *ars o&&ie o& t6e
19;0s, la8n6ed an inno'ati'e spaera&t alled #lemen"ine to orbit t6e 5oon and &l7 b7 t6e
near-Eart6 asteroid /eo)rap6os$ =,&ter ompletin) a remarkable reonnaissane o& t6e 5oon in
5a7 1994, t6e spaera&t &ailed be&ore it o8ld rea6 /eo)rap6os$<
In priniple, 7o8 o8ld 8se bi) roket en)ines, or proHetile impat, or eK8ip tile asteroid
(it6 )iant re&leti'e panels and s6o'e it (it6 s8nli)6t or po(er&8l Eart6-based lasers$ B8t (it6
te6nolo)7 t6at eCists ri)6t no(, t6ere are onl7 t(o (a7s$ %irst, one or more 6i)6-7ield n8lear
(eapons mi)6t blast t6e asteroid or omet into &ra)ments t6at (o8ld disinte)rate and atomiIe on
enterin) t6e Eart6As atmosp6ere$ I& t6e o&&endin) (orldlet is onl7 (eakl7 6eld to)et6er, per6aps
onl7 68ndreds o& me)atons (o8ld s8&&ie$ Sine t6ere is no t6eoretial 8pper limit to t6e
eCplosi'e 7ield o& a t6ermon8lear (eapon, t6ere seem to be t6ose in t6e (eapons laboratories
(6o onsider makin) bi))er bombs not onl7 as a stirrin) 6allen)e, b8t also as a (a7 to m8te
pesk7 en'ironmentalists b7 se8rin) a seat &or n8lear (eapons on t6e sa'e-t6e-Eart6
band(a)on$
,not6er approa6 8nder more serio8s dis8ssion is less dramati b8t still an e&&eti'e (a7 o&
maintainin) t6e (eapons establis6mentGa plan to alter t6e orbit o& an7 errant (orldlet b7
eCplodin) n8lear (eapons nearb7$ 36e eCplosions =)enerall7 near t6e asteroidAs losest point to
t6e S8n< are arran)ed to de&let it a(a7 &rom t6e Eart6$
1
, &l8rr7 o& lo(-7ield n8lear (eapons,
ea6 )i'in) a little p8s6 in t6e desired diretion, is eno8)6 to de&let a medi8m-siIed asteroid
(it6 onl7 a &e( (eeksA (arnin)$ 36e met6od also o&&ers, it is 6oped, a (a7 to deal (it6 a
s8ddenl7 deteted lon)-period omet on imminent ollision traHetor7 (it6 t6e Eart6: 36e omet
(o8ld be interepted (it6 a small asteroid$ =Needless to sa7, t6is )ame o& elestial billiards is
e'en more di&&i8lt and 8nertainGand t6ere&ore e'en less pratial in t6e near &8t8reGt6an t6e
6erdin) o& an asteroid on a kno(n, (ell-be6a'ed orbit (it6 mont6s or 7ears at o8r disposal$<
*e donAt kno( (6at a stando&& n8lear eCplosion (o8ld do to an asteroid$ 36e ans(er
ma7 'ar7 &rom asteroid to asteroid$ Some small (orlds mi)6t be stron)l7 6eld to)et6er? ot6ers
mi)6t be little more t6an sel&-)ra'itatin) )ra'el 6eaps$ I& an eCplosion breaks, letAs sa7, a
10kilometer asteroid 8p into 68ndreds o& 1-kilometer &ra)ments, t6e likeli6ood t6at at least one
1
36e 28ter Spae 3reat7, ad6ered to bot6 b7 t6e 1nited States and -8ssia, pro6ibits (eapons o& mass destr8tion in Bo8ter spae$B
,steroid de&letion te6nolo)7 onstit8tes H8st s86 a (eaponGindeed, t6e most po(er&8l (eapon o& mass destr8tion e'er de'ised$
36ose interested in de'elopin) asteroid de&letion te6nolo)7 (ill (ant to 6a'e t6e treat7 re'ised$ B8t e'en (it6 no re'ision, (ere a
lar)e asteroid to be diso'ered on impat traHetor7 (it6 t6e Eart6, pres8mabl7 no oneAs 6and (o8ld be sta7ed b7 t6e nieties o&
international diploma7$ 36ere is a dan)er, t6o8)6, t6at relaCin) pro6ibitions on s86 (eapons in spae mi)6t make 8s less
attenti'e $bo8t t6e positionin) o& (ar6eads &or o&&ensi'e p8rposes in spae$
151
o& t6em impats t6e Eart6 is probabl7 inreased, and t6e apoal7pti 6arater o& t6e
onseK8enes ma7 not be m86 red8ed$ 2n t6e ot6er 6and, i& t6e eCplosion disr8pts t6e asteroid
into a s(arm o& obHets a 68ndred meters in diameter or smaller, all o& t6em mi)6t ablate a(a7
like )iant meteors on enterin) t6e Eart6As atmosp6ere$ In t6is ase little impat dama)e (o8ld be
a8sed$ E'en i& t6e asteroid (ere (6oll7 p8l'eriIed into &ine po(der, t6o8)6, t6e res8ltin) 6i)6-
altit8de d8st la7er mi)6t be so opaK8e as to blok t6e s8nli)6t and 6an)e t6e limate$ *e do not
7et kno($
, 'ision o& doIens or 68ndreds o& n8lear-armed missiles on read7 standb7 to deal
(it6 t6reatenin) asteroids or omets 6as been o&&ered$ 4o(e'er premat8re in t6is parti8lar
appliation, it seems 'er7 &amiliar? onl7 t6e enem7 6as been 6an)ed$ It also seems 'er7
dan)ero8s$
36e problem, Ste'en 2stro o& >0. and I 6a'e s8))ested, is t6at i& 7o8 an reliabl7
de&let a t6reatenin) (orldlet so it does not ollide (it6 t6e Eart6, 7o8 an also reliabl7 de&let a
6armless (orldlet so it )oe ollide (it6 t6e Eart6$ S8ppose 7o8 6ad a &8ll in'entor7, (it6 orbits,
o& t6e estimated 300,000 near-Eart6 asteroids lar)er t6an 100 metersGea6 o& t6em lar)e
eno8)6, on impatin) t6e Eart6, to 6a'e serio8s onseK8enes$ 36en, it t8rns o8t, 7o8 also 6a'e a
list o& 68)e n8mbers o& ino&&ensi'e asteroids (6ose orbits o8ld be altered (it6 n8lear
(ar6eads so t6e7 K8ikl7 ollide (it6 t6e Eart6$
S8ppose (e restrit o8r attention to t6e ",000 or so near-Eart6 asteroids t6at are a
kilometer aross or bi))erGt6at is, t6e ones most likel7 to a8se a )lobal atastrop6e$ 3oda7,
(it6 onl7 abo8t 100 o& t6ese obHets atalo)8ed, it (o8ld take abo8t a ent8r7 to at6 one (6en
itAs easil7 de&letable to Eart6 and alter its orbit$ *e t6ink (eA'e &o8nd one, an as-7et-8nnamed
1
asteroid so &ar denoted onl7 as 19912,$ In "070, t6is (orld, abo8t 1 kilometer in diameter, (ill
ome (it6in 4$5 million kilometers o& t6e Eart6As orbitGonl7 &i&teen times t6e distane to t6e
5oon$ 3o de&let 19912, so it 6its t6e Eart6, onl7 abo8t 60 me)atons o& 3N3 eK8i'alent needs
to be eCploded in t6e ri)6t (a7Gt6e eK8i'alent o& a small n8mber o& 8rrentl7 a'ailable n8lear
(ar6eads$
No( ima)ine a time, a &e( deades 6ene, (6en all s86 near-Eart6 asteroids are
in'entoried and t6eir orbits ompiled$ 36en, as ,lan 4arris o& >0., /re) +ana'an o& t6e .os
,lamos National .aborator7, 2stro, and I 6a'e s6o(n, it mi)6t take onl7 a 7ear to selet a
s8itable obHet, alter its orbit, and send it ras6in) into t6e Eart6 (it6 atal7smi e&&et$
36e te6nolo)7 reK8iredGlar)e optial telesopes, sensiti'e detetors, roket prop8lsion
s7stems able to li&t a &e( tons o& pa7load and make preise rendeI'o8s in nearb7 spae, and
t6ermon8lear (eaponsGall eCist toda7$ Impro'ements in all b8t per6aps t6e last an be
on&identl7 eCpeted$ I& (eAre not are&8l, man7 nations ma7 6a'e t6ese apabilities in t6e neCt
&e( deades$ *6at kind o& (orld (ill (e t6en 6a'e madeD
1
*6at s6o8ld (e all t6is (orldD Namin) it a&ter t6e /reek %ates or %8ries or Nemesis seems inappropriate, bea8se (6et6er it
misses or 6its t6e Eart6 is entirel7 in o8r 6ands$ I& (e lea'e it alone, it misses$ I& (e p8s6 it le'erl7 and preisel7, it 6its$ 5a7be (e
s6o8ld all it BEi)6t Ball$B
15"
*e 6a'e a tenden7 to minimiIe t6e dan)ers o& ne( te6nolo)ies$ , 7ear be&ore t6e
+6ernob7l disaster, a So'iet n8lear po(er ind8str7 dep8t7 minister (as asked abo8t t6e sa&et7
o& So'iet reators, and 6ose +6ernob7l as a parti8larl7 sa&e site$ 36e a'era)e (aitin) time to
disaster, 6e on&identl7 estimated, (as a 68ndred t6o8sand 7ears$ .ess t6an a 7ear later $ $ $
de'astation$ Similar reass8ranes (ere pro'ided b7 N,S, ontrators t6e 7ear be&ore t6e
#(allenger disaster: :o8 (o8ld 6a'e to (ait ten t6o8sand 7ears, t6e7 estimated, &or a
atastrop6i &ail8re o& t6e s68ttle$ 2ne 7ear later $ $ $ 6eartbreak$
+6loro&l8oroarbons =+%+s< (ere de'eloped spei&iall7 as a ompletel7 sa&e re&ri)erantG
to replae ammonia and ot6er re&ri)erants t6at, on leakin) o8t, 6ad a8sed illness and some
deat6s$ +6emiall7 inert, nontoCi =in ordinar7 onentrations<, odorless, tasteless, non-
aller)eni, non&lammable, +%+s represent a brilliant te6nial sol8tion to a (ell-de&ined
pratial problem$ 36e7 &o8nd 8ses in man7 ot6er ind8stries besides re&ri)eration and air
onditionin)$ B8t, as I desribed abo'e, t6e 6emists (6o de'eloped +%+s o'erlooked one
essential &atGt6at t6e mole8lesA 'er7 inertness )8arantees t6at t6e7 are ir8lated to
stratosp6eri altit8des and t6ere raked open b7 s8nli)6t, releasin) 6lorine atoms (6i6 t6en
attak t6e proteti'e oIone la7er$ !8e to t6e (ork o& a &e( sientists, t6e dan)ers ma7 6a'e been
reo)niIed and a'erted in time$ *e 68mans 6a'e no( almost stopped prod8in) +%+s$ *e (onAt
at8all7 kno( i& (eA'e a'oided real 6arm &or abo8t a ent8r7? t6atAs 6o( lon) it takes &or all t6e
+%+ dama)e to be ompleted$ .ike t6e anient +amarinans, (e make mistakes$
1
Not onl7 do (e
o&ten i)nore t6e (arnin)s o& t6e 2rales? 6arateristiall7 (e do not e'en ons8lt t6em$
36e notion o& mo'in) asteroids into Eart6 orbit 6as pro'ed attrati'e to some spae
sientists and lon)-ran)e planners$ 36e7 &oresee minin) t6e minerals and preio8s metals o&
t6ese (orlds or pro'idin) reso8res &or t6e onstr8tion o& spae in&rastr8t8re (it6o8t 6a'in) to
&i)6t t6e Eart6As )ra'it7 to )et t6em 8p t6ere$ ,rtiles 6a'e been p8blis6ed on 6o( to aomplis6
t6is end and (6at t6e bene&its (ill be$ In modern dis8ssions, t6e asteroid is inserted into orbit
aro8nd t6e Eart6 b7 &irst makin) it pass t6ro8)6 and be braked b7 t6e Eart6As atmosp6ere, a
mane8'er (it6 'er7 little mar)in &or error$ %or t6e near &8t8re (e an, I t6ink, reo)niIe t6is
(6ole endea'or as 8n8s8all7 dan)ero8s and &ool6ard7, espeiall7 &or metal (orldlets lar)er t6an
tens o& meters aross$ 36is is t6e one ati'it7 (6ere errors in na'i)ation or prop8lsion or mission
desi)n an 6a'e t6e most s(eepin) and atastrop6i onseK8enes$
36e &ore)oin) are eCamples o& inad'ertene$ B8t t6ereAs anot6er kind o& peril: *e are
sometimes told t6at t6is or t6at in'ention (o8ld o& o8rse not be mis8sed$ No sane person (o8ld
be so rekless$ 36is is t6e Bonl7 a madmanB ar)8ment$ *6ene'er I 6ear it =and itAs o&ten trotted
o8t in s86 debates<, I remind m7sel& t6at madmen reall7 eCist$ Sometimes t6e7 a6ie'e t6e
6i)6est le'els o& politial po(er in modern ind8strial nations$ 36is is t6e ent8r7 o& 4itler and
Stalin, t7rants (6o posed t6e )ra'est dan)ers not H8st to t6e rest o& t6e 68man &amil7, b8t to t6eir
o(n people as (ell$ In t6e (inter and sprin) o& 1945, 4itler ordered /erman7 to be destro7edG
e'en B(6at t6e people need &or elementar7 s8r'i'alBGbea8se t6e s8r'i'in) /ermans 6ad
1
36ere is o& o8rse a (ide ran)e o& ot6er problems bro8)6t on b7 t6e de'astatin)l7 po(er&8l te6nolo)7 (eA'e reentl7 in'ented$
B8t in most ases t6e7Are not +amarinan disasters-damned i& 7o8 do and damned i& 7o8 donAt$ Instead t6e7Are dilemmas o& (isdom or
timin)-&or eCample, t6e (ron) re&ri)erant or re&ri)eration p67sis o8t o& man7 possible alternati'es$
153
Bbetra7edB 6im, and at an7 rate (ere Bin&eriorB to t6ose (6o 6ad alread7 died$ I& 4itler 6ad 6ad
n8lear (eapons, t6e t6reat o& a o8nterstrike b7 ,llied n8lear (eapons, 6ad t6ere been an7, is
8nlikel7 to 6a'e diss8aded 6im$ It mi)6t 6a'e eno8ra)ed 6im$
+an (e 68mans be tr8sted (it6 i'iliIation-t6reatenin) te6nolo)iesD I& t6e 6ane is almost
one in a t6o8sand t6at m86 o& t6e 68man pop8lation (ill be killed b7 an impat in t6e neCt
ent8r7, isnAt it more likel7 t6at asteroid de&letion te6nolo)7 (ill )et into t6e (ron) 6ands in
anot6er ent8r7Gsome misant6ropi soiopat6 like a 4itler or a Stalin ea)er to kill e'er7bod7, a
me)alomania l8stin) a&ter B)reatnessB and B)lor7,B a 'itim o& et6ni 'iolene bent on re'en)e,
someone in t6e )rip o& 8n8s8all7 se'ere testosterone poisonin), some reli)io8s &anati 6astenin)
t6e !a7 o& H8d)ment, or H8st te6niians inompetent or ins8&&iientl7 'i)ilant in 6andlin) t6e
ontrols and sa&e)8ardsD S86 people eCist$ 36e risks seem &ar (orse t6an t6e bene&its, t6e 8re
(orse t6an t6e disease$ 36e lo8d o& near-Eart6 asteroids t6ro8)6 (6i6 t6e Eart6 plo(s ma7
onstit8te a modern +amarine mars6$
ItAs eas7 to t6ink t6at all o& t6is m8st be 'er7 8nlikel7, mere anCio8s &antas7$ S8rel7 sober
6eads (o8ld pre'ail$ 36ink o& 6o( man7 people (o8ld be in'ol'ed in preparin) and la8n6in)
(ar6eads, in spae na'i)ation, in detonatin) (ar6eads, in 6ekin) (6at orbital pert8rbation
ea6 n8lear eCplosion 6as made, in 6erdin) t6e asteroid so it is on an impat traHetor7 (it6
Eart6, and so on$ IsnAt it note(ort67 t6at alt6o8)6 4itler )a'e orders &or t6e retreatin) NaIi
troops to b8rn 0aris and to la7 (aste to /erman7 itsel&, 6is orders (ere not arried o8tD S8rel7
someone essential to t6e s8ess o& t6e de&letion mission (ill reo)niIe t6e dan)er$ E'en
ass8ranes t6at t6e proHet is desi)ned to destro7 some 'ile enem7 nation (o8ld probabl7 be
disbelie'ed, bea8se t6e e&&ets o& ollision are planet-(ide =and an7(a7 itAs 'er7 6ard to make
s8re 7o8r asteroid eCa'ates its monster rater in a parti8larl7 deser'in) nation<$
B8t no( ima)ine a totalitarian state, not o'err8n b7 enem7 troops, b8t one t6ri'in) and sel&-
on&ident$ Ima)ine a tradition in (6i6 orders are obe7ed (it6o8t K8estion$ Ima)ine t6at t6ose
in'ol'ed in t6e operation are s8pplied a o'er stor7: 36e asteroid is abo8t to impat t6e Eart6,
and it is t6eir Hob to de&let itGb8t in order not to (orr7 people needlessl7, t6e operation m8st be
per&ormed in seret$ In a militar7 settin) (it6 a ommand 6ierar67 &irml7 in plae,
ompartmentaliIation o& kno(led)e, )eneral sere7, and a o'er stor7, an (e be on&ident t6at
e'en apoal7pti orders (o8ld be disobe7edD ,re (e reall7 s8re t6at in t6e neCt deades and
ent8ries and millennia, not6in) like t6is mi)6t 6appenD 4o( s8re are (eD
ItAs no 8se sa7in) t6at all te6nolo)ies an be 8sed &or )ood or &or ill$ 36at is ertainl7 tr8e,
b8t (6en t6e BillB a6ie'es a s8&&iientl7 apoal7pti sale, (e ma7 6a'e to set limits on (6i6
te6nolo)ies ma7 be de'eloped$ =In a (a7 (e do t6is all t6e time, bea8se (e anAt a&&ord to
de'elop all te6nolo)ies$ Some are &a'ored and some are not$< 2r onstraints ma7 6a'e to be
le'ied b7 t6e omm8nit7 o& nations on madmen and a8tar6s and &anatiism$
3rakin) asteroids and omets is pr8dent, itAs )ood siene, and it doesnAt ost m86$ B8t,
kno(in) o8r (eaknesses, (67 (o8ld (e e'en onsider no( de'elopin) t6e te6nolo)7 to de&let
small (orldsD %or sa&et7, s6all (e ima)ine t6is te6nolo)7 in t6e 6ands o& man7 nations, ea6
pro'idin) 6eks and balanes a)ainst mis8se b7 anot6erD 36is is not6in) like t6e old n8lear
balane o& terror$ It 6ardl7 in6ibits some madman intent on )lobal atastrop6e to kno( t6at i& 6e
154
does not 68rr7, a ri'al ma7 beat 6im to it$ 4o( on&ident an (e be t6at t6e omm8nit7 o&
nations (ill be able to detet a le'erl7 desi)ned, landestine asteroid de&letion in time to do
somet6in) abo8t itD I& s86 a te6nolo)7 (ere de'eloped, an an7 international sa&e)8ards be
en'isioned t6at 6a'e a reliabilit7 ommens8rate (it6 t6e riskD
E'en i& (e restrit o8rsel'es merel7 to s8r'eillane, t6ereAs a risk$ Ima)ine t6at in a
)eneration (e 6arateriIe t6e orbits o& 30,000 obHets o& 100-meter diameter or more, and t6at
t6is in&ormation is p8bliiIed, as o& o8rse it s6o8ld be$ 5aps (ill be p8blis6ed s6o(in) near-
Eart6 spae blak (it6 t6e orbits o& asteroids and omets, 30,000 s(ords o& !amoles 6an)in)
o'er o8r 6eads-ten times more t6an t6e n8mber o& stars 'isible to t6e naked e7e 8nder onditions
o& optim8m atmosp6eri larit7$ 08bli anCiet7 mi)6t be m86 )reater in s86 a time o&
kno(led)e t6an in o8r 8rrent a)e o& i)norane$ 36ere mi)6t be irresistible p8bli press8re to
de'elop means to miti)ate e'en noneCistent t6reats, (6i6 (o8ld t6en &eed t6e dan)er t6at
de&letion te6nolo)7 (o8ld be mis8sed$ %or t6is reason, asteroid diso'er7 and s8r'eillane
ma7 not be a mere ne8tral tool o& &8t8re poli7, b8t rat6er a kind o& boob7 trap$ 3o me, t6e onl7
&oreseeable sol8tion is a ombination o& a8rate orbit estimation, realisti t6reat assessment, and
e&&eti'e p8bli ed8ationGso t6at in demoraies at least, t6e itiIens an make t6eir o(n,
in&ormed deisions$ 36is is a Hob &or N,S,$
Near-Eart6 asteroids, and means o& alterin) t6eir orbits, are bein) looked at serio8sl7$ 36ere
is some si)n t6at o&&iials in t6e !epartment o& !e&ense and t6e (eapons laboratories are
be)innin) to 8nderstand t6at t6ere ma7 be real dan)ers in plannin) to p8s6 asteroids aro8nd$
+i'ilian and militar7 sientists 6a'e met to dis8ss t6e s8bHet$ 2n &irst 6earin) abo8t t6e asteroid
6aIard, man7 people t6ink o& it as a kind o& +6iken .ittle &able? /oose7-.87, ne(l7 arri'ed
and in )reat eCitement, is omm8niatin) t6e 8r)ent ne(s t6at t6e sk7 is &allin)$ 36e tenden7
to dismiss t6e prospet o& an7 atastrop6e t6at (e 6a'e not personall7 (itnessed is in t6e lon)
r8n 'er7 &oolis6$ B8t in t6is ase it ma7 be an all7 o& pr8dene$
MEANWHILE WE MUST STILL FACE t6e de&letion dilemma$ I& (e de'elop and deplo7 t6is
te6nolo)7, it ma7 do 8s in$ I& (e donAt, some asteroid or omet ma7 do 8s in$ 36e resol8tion o&
t6e dilemma 6in)es, I t6ink, on t6e &at t6at t6e likel7 timesales o& t6e t(o dan)ers are 'er7
di&&erentGs6ort &or t6e &ormer, lon) &or t6e latter$
I like to t6ink t6at o8r &8t8re in'ol'ement (it6 near-Eart6 asteroids (ill )o somet6in) like
t6is: %rom )ro8nd-based obser'atories, (e diso'er all t6e bi) ones, plot and monitor t6eir
orbits, determine rotation rates and ompositions$ Sientists are dili)ent in eCplainin) t6e dan)ers
Gneit6er eCa))eratin) nor m8tin) t6e prospets$ *e send roboti spaera&t to &l7 b7 a &e(
seleted bodies, orbit t6em, land on t6em, and ret8rn s8r&ae samples to laboratories on Eart6$
E'ent8all7 (e send 68mans$ =Bea8se o& t6e lo( )ra'ities, t6e7 (ill be able to make standin)
broad H8mps o& ten kilometers or more into t6e sk7, and lob a baseball into orbit aro8nd t6e
asteroid$< %8ll7 a(are o& t6e dan)ers, (e make no attempts to alter traHetories 8ntil t6e potential
&or mis8se o& (orld-alterin) te6nolo)ies is m86 less$ 36at mi)6t take a (6ile$
155
I& (eAre too K8ik in de'elopin) t6e te6nolo)7 to mo'e (orlds aro8nd, (e ma7 destro7
o8rsel'es? i& (eAre too slo(, (e (ill s8rel7 destro7 o8rsel'es$ 36e reliabilit7 o& (orld politial
or)aniIations and t6e on&idene t6e7 inspire (ill 6a'e to make si)ni&iant strides be&ore t6e7
an be tr8sted to deal (it6 a problem o& t6is serio8sness$ ,t t6e same time, t6ere seems to be no
aeptable national sol8tion$ *6o (o8ld &eel om&ortable (it6 t6e means o& (orld destr8tion in
t6e 6ands o& some dediated =or e'en potential< enem7 nation, (6et6er or not o8r nation 6ad
omparable po(ersD 36e eCistene o& interplanetar7 ollision 6aIards, (6en (idel7 8nderstood,
(orks to brin) o8r speies to)et6er$ *6en &ain) a ommon dan)er, (e 68mans 6a'e sometimes
rea6ed 6ei)6ts (idel7 t6o8)6t impossible? (e 6a'e set aside o8r di&&erenesGat least 8ntil t6e
dan)er passed$
B8t "(i dan)er ne'er passes$ 36e asteroids, )ra'itationall7 68rnin), are slo(l7 alterin)
t6eir orbits? (it6o8t (arnin), ne( omets ome areenin) to(ard 8s &rom t6e transpl8tonian
darkness$ 36ere (ill al(a7s be a need to deal (it6 t6em in a (a7 t6at does not endan)er 8s$ B7
posin) t(o di&&erent lasses o& perilGone nat8ral, t6e ot6er 68man-madeGt6e small near-Eart6
(orlds pro'ide a ne( and potent moti'ation to reate e&&eti'e transnational instit8tions and to
8ni&7 t6e 68man speies$ ItAs 6ard to see an7 satis&ator7 alternati'e$
In o8r 8s8al Hitter7, t(o-steps-&or(ard-one-step-bak mode, *e are mo'in) to(ard
8ni&iation an7(a7$ 36ere are po(er&8l in&l8enes deri'in) &rom transportation and
omm8niations te6nolo)ies, t6e interdependent (orld eonom7, and t6e )lobal en'ironmental
risis$ 36e impat 6aIard merel7 6astens t6e pae$
E'ent8all7, a8tio8sl7, sr8p8lo8sl7 are&8l to attempt not6in) (it6 asteroids t6at o8ld
inad'ertentl7 a8se a atastrop6e on Eart6, I ima)ine (e (ill be)in to learn 6o( to 6an)e t6e
orbits o& little nonmetalli (orlds, smaller t6an 100 meters aross$ *e be)in (it6 smaller
eCplosions and slo(l7 (ork o8r (a7 8p$ *e )ain eCperiene in 6an)in) t6e orbits o& 'ario8s
asteroids and omets o& di&&erent ompositions and stren)t6s$ *e tr7 to determine (6i6 ones
an be p8s6ed aro8nd and (6i6 annot$ B7 t6e t(ent7-seond ent8r7, per6aps, (e mo'e small
(orlds aro8nd t6e Solar S7stem, 8sin) =see neCt 6apter< not n8lear eCplosions b8t n8lear
&8sion en)ines or t6eir eK8i'alents$ *e insert small asteroids made o& preio8s and ind8strial
metals into Eart6 orbit$ /rad8all7 de'elop a de&ensi'e te6nolo)7 to de&let a lar)e asteroid or
omet t6at mi)6t in t6e &oreseeable &8t8re 6it t6e Eart6, (6ile, (it6 meti8lo8s are, (e b8ild
la7ers o& sa&e)8ards a)ainst mis8se$
Sine t6e dan)er o& mis8sin) de&letion te6nolo)7 seems so m86 )reater t6an t6e dan)er
o& an imminent impat, (e an a&&ord to (ait, take prea8tions, reb8ild politial instit8tionsG&or
deades ertainl7, probabl7 ent8ries$ I& (e pla7 o8r ards ri)6t and are not 8nl8k7, (e an pae
(6at (e do 8p t6ere b7 (6at pro)ress (eAre makin) do(n 6ere$ 36e t(o are in an7 ase deepl7
onneted$
36e asteroid 6aIard &ores o8r 6and$ E'ent8all7, (e m8st establis6 a &ormidable 68man
presene t6ro8)6o8t t6e inner Solar S7stem$ 2n an iss8e o& t6is importane I do not t6ink (e
(ill be ontent (it6 p8rel7 roboti means o& miti)ation$ 3o do so sa&el7 (e m8st make 6an)es
in o8r politial and international s7stems$ *6ile m86 abo8t o8r &8t8re is lo8d7, t6is onl8sion
seems a little more rob8st, and independent o& t6e 'a)aries o& 68man instit8tions$
156
In t6e lon) term, e'en i& (e (ere not t6e desendants o& pro&essional (anderers, e'en i& (e
(ere not inspired b7 eCplorator7 passions, some o& 8s (o8ld still 6a'e to lea'e t6e Eart6G
simpl7 to ens8re t6e s8r'i'al o& all o& 8s$ ,nd one (eAre o8t t6ere, (eAll need bases,
in&rastr8t8res$ It (o8ld not be 'er7 lon) be&ore some o& 8s (ere li'in) in arti&iial 6abitats and
on ot6er (orlds$ 36is is t6e &irst o& t(o m8ssin) ar)8ments, omitted in o8r dis8ssion o& missions
to 5ars, &or a permanent 68man presene in spae$
OTHER PLANETARY SYSTEMS m8st &ae t6eir o(n impat 6aIardsGbea8se small primordial
(orlds, o& (6i6 asteroids and omets are remnants, are t6e st8&& o8t o& (6i6 planets &orm t6ere
as (ell$ ,&ter t6e planets are made, man7 o& t6ese planetesimals are le&t o'er$ 36e a'era)e time
bet(een i'iliIation-t6reatenin) impats on Eart6 is per6aps "00,000 7ears, t(ent7 times t6e a)e
o& o8r i'iliIation$ #er7 di&&erent (aitin) times ma7 pertain to eCtraterrestrial i'iliIations, i&
t6e7 eCist, dependin) on s86 &ators as t6e p67sial and 6emial 6arateristis o& t6e planet
and its biosp6ere, t6e biolo)ial and soial nat8re o& t6e i'iliIation, and o& o8rse t6e ollision
rate itsel&$ 0lanets (it6 6i)6er atmosp6eri press8res (ill be proteted a)ainst some(6at lar)er
1mpators, alt6o8)6 t6e press8re annot be m86 )reater be&ore )reen6o8se (armin) and ot6er
onseK8enes make li&e improbable$ I& t6e )ra'it7 is m86 less t6an on Eart6, impators (ill
make less ener)eti ollisions and t6e 6aIard (ill be red8edGalt6o8)6 it annot be red8ed
'er7 m86 be&ore t6e atmosp6ere esapes to spae$
36e impat rate in ot6er planetar7 s7stems is 8nertain$ 28r s7stem ontains t(o maHor
pop8lations o& small bodies t6at &eed potential impators into Eart6-rossin) orbits$ Bot6 t6e
eCistene o& t6e so8re pop8lations and t6e me6anisms t6at maintain t6e ollision rate depend
on 6o( (orlds are distrib8ted$ %or eCample, o8r 2ort +lo8d seems to 6a'e been pop8lated b7
)ra'itational eHetions o& i7 (orldlets &rom t6e 'iinit7 o& 1ran8s and Nept8ne$ I& t6ere are no
planets t6at pla7 t6e role o& 1ran8s and Nept8ne in s7stems ot6er(ise like o8r o(n, t6eir 2ort
+lo8ds ma7 be m86 more t6inl7 pop8lated$ Stars in open and )lob8lar stellar l8sters, stars in
do8ble or m8ltiple s7stems, stars loser to t6e enter o& t6e /alaC7, stars eCperienin) more
&reK8ent eno8nters (it6 /iant 5ole8lar +lo8ds in interstellar spae, ma7 all eCperiene 6i)6er
impat &l8Ces at t6eir terrestrial planets$ 36e ometar7 &l8C mi)6t be 68ndreds or t6o8sands o&
times more at t6e Eart6 6ad t6e planet >8piter ne'er &ormedGaordin) to a al8lation b7
/eor)e *et6erill o& t6e +arne)ie Instit8tion o& *as6in)ton$ In s7stems (it6o8t >8piter-like
planets, t6e )ra'itational s6ield a)ainst omets is do(n, and i'iliIation-t6reatenin) impats
m86 more &reK8ent$
3o a ertain eCtent, inreased &l8Ces o& interplanetar7 obHets mi)6t inrease t6e rate o&
e'ol8tion, as t6e mammals t6at &lo8ris6ed and di'ersi&ied a&ter t6e +retaeo8s-3ertiar7 ollision
(iped o8t t6e dinosa8rs$ B8t t6ere m8st be a point o& diminis6in) ret8rns: +learl7, some &l8C is
too 6i)6 &or t6e ontin8ane o& an7 i'iliIation$
2ne onseK8ene o& t6is train o& ar)8ment is t6at, e'en i& i'iliIations ommonl7 arise on
planets t6ro8)6o8t t6e /alaC7, &e( o& t6em (ill be bot6 lon)-li'ed and non-te6nolo)ial$ Sine
6aIards &rom asteroids and omets m8st appl7 to in6abited planets all o'er t6e /alaC7, i& t6ere are
s86, intelli)ent bein)s e'er7(6ere (ill 6a'e to 8ni&7 t6eir 6ome (orlds politiall7, lea'e t6eir
157
planets, and mo'e small nearb7 (orlds aro8nd$ 36eir e'ent8al 6oie, as o8rs, is spae&li)6t or
eCtintion$
+ 4 , 0 3 E - 19
-E5,EIN/
34E 0.,NE3S

*6o o8ld den7 t6at man o8ld some6o( also make t6e 6ea'ens,
o8ld 6e onl7 obtain t6e instr8ments and t6e 6ea'enl7 materialD
G5,-SI.I2 %I+IN2, B34E S21. 2% 5,NB =+,$ 1474<
In t6e midst o& t6e Seond *orld *ar, a 7o8n) ,merian (riter named >ak *illiamson
en'isioned a pop8lated Solar S7stem$ In t6e t(ent7-seond ent8r7, 6e ima)ined, #en8s (o8ld
be settled b7 +6ina,
1
>apan, and Indonesia? 5ars b7 /erman7? and t6e moons o& >8piter b7
-8ssia$ 36ose (6o spoke En)lis6, t6e lan)8a)e in (6i6 *illiamson (as (ritin), (ere
on&ined to t6e asteroids-and o& o8rse t6e Eart6$
36e stor7, p8blis6ed in A"oun)ing S7ien7e 2i7"ion in >8l7 194", (as alled B+ollision
2rbitB and (ritten 8nder t6e pse8don7m *ill Ste(art$ Its plot 6in)ed on t6e imminent ollision
o& an 8nin6abited asteroid (it6 a oloniIed one, and t6e sear6 &or a means o& alterin) t6e
traHetories o& small (orlds$ ,lt6o8)6 no one on Eart6 (as endan)ered, t6is ma7 6a'e been t6e
&irst appearane, apart &rom ne(spaper omi strips, o& asteroid ollisions as a t6reat to 68mans$
(#ome" impatin) t6e Eart6 6ad been a staple peril$<
36e en'ironments o& 5ars and #en8s (ere poorl7 8nderstood in t6e earl7 1940s? it (as
onei'able t6at 68mans o8ld li'e t6ere (it6o8t elaborate li&e-s8pport s7stems$ B8t t6e
asteroids (ere anot6er matter$ It (as (ell kno(n, e'en t6en, t6at asteroids (ere small, dr7,
airless (orlds$ I& t6e7 (ere to be in6abited, espeiall7 b7 lar)e n8mbers o& people, t6ese little
(orlds (o8ld some6o( 6a'e to be &iCed$
1
In t6e real (orld, +6inese spae o&&iials are proposin) to send a t(o-person astrona8t aps8le into orbit b7 t6e t8rn o& t6e ent8r7$
It (o8ld be propelled b7 a modi&ied &ong Mar7( 2E roket and be la8n6ed &rom t6e /obi !esert$ I& t6e +6inese eonom7 eC6ibits
e'en moderate ontin8in) )ro(t6Gm86 less t6e eCponential )ro(t6 t6at marked it in t6e earl7 to mid-1990sG+6ina ma7 be one o&
t6e (orldAs leadin) spae po(ers b7 t6e middle o& t6e t(ent7-&irst ent8r7$ 2r earlier$
15;
In B+ollision 2rbit,B *illiamson portra7s a )ro8p o& Bspatial en)ineers,B able to render s86
barren o8tposts lement$ +oinin) a (ord, *illiamson alled t6e proess o& metamorp6osis into
an Eart6-like (orld Bterra&ormin)$B 4e kne( t6at t6e lo( )ra'it7 on an asteroid means t6at an7
atmosp6ere )enerated or transported t6ere (o8ld K8ikl7 esape to spae$ So 6is ke7
terra&ormin) te6nolo)7 (as Bpara)ra'it7,B an arti&iial )ra'it7 t6at (o8ld 6old a dense
atmosp6ere$
,s nearl7 as (e an tell toda7, para)ra'it7 is a p67sial impossibilit7$ B8t (e an ima)ine
domed, transparent 6abitats on t6e s8r&aes o& asteroids, as s8))ested b7 Eonstantin 3siolko'sk7,
or omm8nities establis6ed in t6e ini)e o& asteroids, as o8tlined in t6e 19"0s b7 t6e Britis6
sientist >$ !$ Bernal$ Bea8se asteroids are small and t6eir )ra'ities lo(, e'en massi'e
s8bs8r&ae onstr8tion mi)6t be omparati'el7 eas7$ I& a t8nnel (ere d8) lean t6ro8)6, 7o8
o8ld H8mp in at one end and emer)e some 45 min8tes later at t6e ot6er, osillatin) 8p and do(n
alon) t6e toll diameter o& t6is (orld inde&initel7$ Inside t6e ri)6t kind o& asteroid, a arbonaeo8s
one, 7o8 an &ind materials &or man8&at8rin) stone, metal, and plasti onstr8tion and plenti&8l
(aterGall 7o8 mi)6t need to b8ild a s8bs8r&ae losed eolo)ial s7stem, an 8nder)ro8nd
)arden$ Implementation (o8ld reK8ire a si)ni&iant step be7ond (6at (e 6a'e toda7, b8tG
8nlike Bpara)ra'it7BGnot6in) in s86 a s6eme seems impossible$ ,ll t6e elements an be &o8nd
in ontemporar7 te6nolo)7$ I& t6ere (ere s8&&iient reason, a &air n8mber o& 8s o8ld be li'in)
on =or in asteroids b7 t6e t(ent7-seond ent8r7$
36e7 (o8ld o& o8rse need a so8re o& po(er, not H8st to s8stain t6emsel'es, b8t, as Bernal
s8))ested, to mo'e t6eir asteroidal 6omes aro8nd$ =It does not seem so bi) a step &rom eCplosi'e
alteration o& asteroid orbits to a more )entle means o& prop8lsion a ent8r7 or t(o later$< I& an
oC7)en atmosp6ere (ere )enerated &rom 6emiall7 bo8nd (ater, t6en or)anis o8ld be b8rned
to )enerate po(er, H8st as &ossil &8els are b8rned on t6e Eart6 toda7$ Solar po(er o8ld be
onsidered, alt6o8)6 &or t6e main-belt asteroids t6e intensit7 o& s8nli)6t is onl7 abo8t 10 perent
(6at it is on Eart6$ Still, (e o8ld ima)ine 'ast &ields o& solar panels o'erin) t6e s8r&aes o&
in6abited asteroids and on'ertin) s8nli)6t into eletriit7$ 06oto'oltai te6nolo)7 is ro8tinel7
8sed in Eart6-orbitin) spaera&t, and is in inreasin) 8se on t6e s8r&ae o& t6e Eart6 toda7$ B8t
(6ile t6at mi)6t be eno8)6 to (arm and li)6t t6e 6omes o& t6ese desendants, it does not seem
adeK8ate to 6an)e asteroid orbits$
%or t6at, *illiamson proposed 8sin) anti-matter$ ,ntimatter is H8st like ordinar7 matter,
(it6 one si)ni&iant di&&erene$ +onsider 67dro)en: ,n ordinar7 67dro)en atom onsists o& a
positi'el7 6ar)ed proton on t6e inside and a ne)ati'el7 6ar)ed eletron on t6e o8tside$ ,n
atom o& anti-67dro)en onsists o& a ne)ati'el7 6ar)ed proton on t6e inside and a positi'el7
6ar)ed eletron =also alled a positron< on t6e o8tside$ 36e protons, (6ate'er t6e si)n o& t6eir
6ar)es, 6a'e t6e same mass? and t6e eletrons, (6ate'er t6e si)n o& "(eir 6ar)es, 6a'e t6e
same mass$ 0artiles (it6 opposite 6ar)es attrat$ , 67dro)en atom and an anti-67dro)en atom
are bot6 stable, bea8se in bot6 ases t6e positi'e and ne)ati'e eletrial 6ar)es preisel7
balane$
,nti-matter is not some 67pot6etial onstr8t &rom t6e per&er'id m8sin)s o& siene
&ition (riters or t6eoretial p67siists$ ,nti-matter eCists$ 067siists make it in n8lear
159
aelerators? it an be &o8nd in 6i)6-ener)7 osmi ra7s$ So (67 donAt (e 6ear more abo8t itD
*67 6as no one 6eld 8p a l8mp o& antimatter &or o8r inspetionD Bea8se matter and anti-
matter, (6en bro8)6t into ontat, 'iolentl7 anni6ilate ea6 ot6er, disappearin) in an intense
b8rst o& )amma ra7s$ *e annot tell (6et6er somet6in) is made o& matter or anti-matter H8st b7
lookin) at it$ 36e spetrosopi properties o&, &or eCample, 67dro)en and anti-67dro)en are
idential$
,lbert EinsteinAs ans(er to t6e K8estion o& (67 (e see onl7 matter and not anti-matter (as,
B5atter (onBGb7 (6i6 6e meant t6at in o8r setor o& t6e 1ni'erse at least, a&ter almost all
t6e matter and anti-matter interated and anni6ilated ea6 ot6er lon) a)o, t6ere (as some o&
(6at (e all ordinar7 matter le&t o'er$
1
,s &ar as (e an tell toda7, &rom )amma ra7 astronom7
and ot6er means, t6e 1ni'erse is made almost entirel7 o& matter$ 36e reason &or t6is en)a)es
t6e deepest osmolo)ial iss8es, (6i6 need not detain 8s 6ere$ B8t i& t6ere (as onl7 a one-
partile-in-a-billion di&&erene in t6e preponderane o& matter o'er anti-matter at t6e be)innin),
e'en t6is (o8ld be eno8)6 to eCplain t6e 1ni'erse (e see toda7$
*illiamson ima)ined t6at 68mans in t6e t(ent7-seond ent8r7 (o8ld mo'e asteroids
aro8nd b7 t6e ontrolled m8t8al anni6ilation o& matter and anti-matter$ ,ll t6e res8ltin) )amma
ra7s, i& ollimated, (o8ld make a potent roket eC6a8st$ 36e anti-matter (o8ld be a'ailable in
t6e main asteroid belt =bet(een t6e orbits o& 5ars and >8piter<, bea8se t6is (as 6is eCplanation
&or t6e exi"en7e o& t6e asteroid belt$ In t6e remote past, 6e proposed, an intr8der anti-matter
(orldlet arri'ed in t6e Solar S7stem &rom t6e dept6s o& spae, impated, and anni6ilated (6at
(as t6en an Eart6like planet, &i&t6 &rom t6e S8n$ 36e &ra)ments o& t6is mi)6t7 ollision are t6e
asteroids, and some o& t6em are still made o& anti-matter$ 4arness an anti-asteroidG*illiamson
reo)niIed t6at t6is mi)6t be trik7Gand 7o8 an mo'e (orlds aro8nd at (ill$
,t t6e time, *illiamsonAs ideas (ere &8t8risti, b8t &ar &rom &oolis6$ Some o& B+ollision
2rbitB an be onsidered 'isionar7$ 3oda7, 6o(e'er, (e 6a'e )ood reason to belie'e t6at t6ere
are no si)ni&iant amo8nts o& anti-matter in t6e Solar S7stem, and t6at t6e asteroid belt, &ar &rom
bein) a &ra)mented terrestrial planet, is an enormo8s arra7 o& small bodies pre'ented =b7 t6e
)ra'itational tides o& >8piter< &rom &ormin) an Eart6like (orld$
4o(e'er, (e do )enerate ='er7< small amo8nts o& antimatter in n8lear aelerators toda7,
and (e (ill probabl7 be able to man8&at8re m86 lar)er amo8nts b7 t6e t(ent7-seond
ent8r7$ Bea8se it is so e&&iientGon'ertin) all o& t6e matter into ener)7, E X 5+
"
, (it6 100
perent e&&iien7Gper6aps anti-matter en)ines (ill be a pratial te6nolo)7 b7 t6en,
'indiatin) *illiamson %ailin) t6at, (6at ener)7 so8res an (e realistiall7 eCpet to be
a'ailable, to reon&i)8re asteroids, to li)6t t6em (arm t6em, and mo'e t6em aro8ndD
36e S8n s6ines b7 Hammin) protons to)et6er and t8rnin) t6em into 6eli8m n8lei$ Ener)7
is released in t6e proess, alt6o8)6 (it6 less t6an 1 perent t6e e&&iien7 o& t6e anni6ilation o&
matter and anti-matter$ B8t e'en proton-proton reations are &ar be7ond an7t6in) (e an
realistiall7 ima)ine &or o8rsel'es in t6e near &8t8re$ 36e reK8ired temperat8res are m86 too
1
I& it 6ad been t6e ot6er (a7, t6en (e and e'er7t6in) else in t6is part o& t6e 1ni'erse (o8ld be made o& anti-matter$ *e (o8ld, o&
o8rse, all it matterGand t6e idea o& (orlds and li&e made o& t6at ot6er kind o& material$ t6e st8&& (it6 t6e eletrial 6ar)es
re'ersed, (eAd onsider (ildl7 spe8lati'e$
160
6i)6$ Instead< o& Hammin) protons to)et6er, t6o8)6, (e mi)6t 8se 6ea'ier kinds o& 67dro)en$
*e alread7 do so in t6ermon8lear (eapons$ !e8teri8m is a proton bo8nd b7 n8lear &ores to
a ne8tron? triti8m is a proton bo8nd b7 n8lear &ores to t(o ne8trons$ It seems likel7 t6at in
anot6er ent8r7 (e (ill 6a'e pratial po(er s6emes t6at in'ol'e t6e ontrolled &8sion o&
de8teri8m and triti8m, and o& de8teri8m and 6eli8m$ !e8teri8m and triti8m are present as
minor onstit8ents in (ater =on Eart6 and ot6er (orlds<$ 36e kind o& 6eli8m needed &or &8sion,
34e =t(o protons and a ne8tron make 8p its n8le8s<, 6as been implanted o'er billions o& 7ears
b7 t6e solar (ind in t6e s8r&aes o& t6e asteroids$ 36ese proesses are not nearl7 as e&&iient as
t6e proton-proton reations in t6e S8n, b8t t6e7 o8ld pro'ide eno8)6 po(er to r8n a small it7
&or a 7ear &rom a lode o& ie onl7 a &e( meters in siIe$
%8sion reators seem to be omin) alon) too slo(l7 to pla7 a maHor role in sol'in), or e'en
si)ni&iantl7 miti)atin), )lobal (armin)$ B8t b7 t6e t(ent7-seond ent8r7, t6e7 o8)6t to be
(idel7 a'ailable$ *it6 &8sion roket en)ines, it (ill be possible to more asteroids and omets
aro8nd t6e inner Solar S7stem takin) a main-belt asteroid, &or eCample, and insertin) it into
orbit aro8nd t6e Eart6$ , (orld 10 kilometers aross o8ld be transported &rom Sat8rn, sa7, to
5ars t6ro8)6 n8lear b8rnin) o& t6e 67dro)en in an i7 omet a kilometer aross$ =,)ain, IAm
ass8min) a time o& m86 )reater politial stabilit7 and sa&et7$<
PUT ASIDE FOR THE MOMENT an7 K8alms 7o8 mi)6t 6a'e abo8t t6e et6is o& rearran)in)
(orlds, or o8r abilit7 to do so (it6o8t atastrop6i onseK8enes$ !i))in) o8t t6e insides o&
(orldlets, reon&i)8rin) t6em &or 68man 6abitation, and mo'in) t6em &rom one plae in t6e
Solar S7stem to anot6er seems to be (it6in o8r )rasp in anot6er ent8r7 or t(o$ 0er6aps b7
t6en (e (ill 6a'e adeK8ate international sa&e)8ards as (ell$ B8t (6at abo8t trans&ormin) t6e
s8r&ae en'ironments not o& asteroids or omets, b8t o& planetsD +o8ld (e li'e on 5arsD
I& (e (anted to set 8p 6o8sekeepin) on 5ars, itAs eas7 to see t6at, in priniple at least, (e
o8ld do it: 36ereAs ab8ndant s8nli)6t$ 36ereAs plenti&8l (ater in t6e roks and in 8nder)ro8nd
and polar ie$ 36e atmosp6ere is mostl7 arbon dioCide$ It seems likel7 t6at in sel&-ontained
6abitats-per6aps domed enlos8resG(e o8ld )ro( rops, man8&at8re oC7)en &rom (ater,
re7le (astes$
,t &irst (eAd be dependent on ommodities res8pplied &rom Eart6, b8t in time (eAd
man8&at8re more and more o& t6em o8rsel'es$ *eAd beome inreasin)l7 sel&-s8&&iient$ 36e
domed enlos8res, e'en i& made o& ordinar7 )lass, (o8ld let in t6e 'isible s8nli)6t and sreen
o8t t6e S8nAs 8ltra'iolet ra7s$ *it6 oC7)en masks and proteti'e )armentsGb8t not6in) as
b8lk7 and 8mbersome as a spaes8itG(e o8ld lea'e t6ese enlos8res to )o eCplorin), or to
b8ild anot6er domed 'illa)e and &arms$
It seems 'er7 e'oati'e o& t6e ,merian pioneerin) eCperiene, b8t (it6 at least one maHor
di&&erene: In t6e earl7 sta)es, lar)e s8bsidies are essential$ 36e te6nolo)7 reK8ired is too
eCpensi'e &or some poor &amil7, like m7 )randparents a ent8r7 a)o, to pa7 t6eir o(n passa)e
to 5ars$ 36e earl7 5artian pioneers (ill be sent b7 )o'ernments and (ill 6a'e 6i)6l7
speialiIed skills$ B8t in a )eneration or t(o, (6en 6ildren and )rand6ildren are born t6ereG
161
and espeiall7 (6en sel&-s8&&iien7 is (it6in rea6Gt6at (ill be)in to 6an)e$ :o8n)sters
born on 5ars (ill be )i'en speialiIed trainin) in t6e te6nolo)7 essential &or s8r'i'al in t6is
ne( en'ironment$ 36e settlers (ill beome less 6eroi and less eCeptional$ 36e &8ll ran)e o&
68man stren)t6s and de&iienies (ill be)in to assert t6emsel'es$ /rad8all7, preisel7 bea8se
o& t6e di&&i8lt7 o& )ettin) &rom Eart6 to 5ars, a 8niK8e 5artian 8lt8re (ill be)in to emer)eG
distint aspirations and &ears tied to t6e en'ironment t6e7 li'e in, distint te6nolo)ies, distint
soial problems, distint sol8tionsGand, as 6as o8rred in e'er7 similar ir8mstane
t6ro8)6o8t 68man 6istor7, a )rad8al sense o& 8lt8ral and politial estran)ement &rom t6e
mot6er (orld$
/reat s6ips (ill arri'e arr7in) essential te6nolo)7 &rom Eart6, ne( &amilies o& settlers,
sare reso8res$ It is 6ard to kno(, on t6e basis o& o8r limited kno(led)e o& 5ars, (6et6er t6e7
(ill )o 6ome empt7Gor (6et6er t6e7 (ill arr7 (it6 t6em somet6in) &o8nd onl7 on 5ars,
somet6in) onsidered 'er7 'al8able on Eart6$ Initiall7 m86 o& t6e sienti&i in'esti)ation o&
samples o& t6e 5artian s8r&ae (ill be done on Eart6$ B8t in time t6e sienti&i st8d7 o& 5ars
=and its moons 06obos and !eimos< (ill be done &rom 5ars$
E'ent8all7Gas 6as 6appened (it6 'irt8all7 e'er7 ot6er &orm o& 68man transportationG
interplanetar7 tra'el (ill beome aessible to people o& ordinar7 means: to sientists p8rs8in)
t6eir o(n resear6 proHets, to settlers &ed 8p (it6 Eart6, e'en to 'ent8resome to8rists$ ,nd o&
o8rse t6ere (ill be eCplorers$
I& t6e time e'er ame (6en it (as possible to make t6e 5artian en'ironment m86 more
Eart6-likeGso proteti'e )arments, oC7)en masks, and domed &armlands and ities o8ld be
dispensed (it6Gt6e attration and aessibilit7 o& 5ars (o8ld be inreased man7-&old$ 36e
same, o& o8rse, (o8ld be tr8e &or an7 ot6er (orld (6i6 o8ld be en)ineered so t6at 68mans
o8ld li'e t6ere (it6o8t elaborate ontri'anes to keep t6e planetar7 en'ironment o8t$ *e (o8ld
&eel m86 more om&ortable in o8r adopted 6ome i& an intat dome or spaes8it (erenAt all t6at
stood bet(een 8s and deat6$ =B8t per6aps I eCa))erate t6e dan)ers$ 0eople (6o li'e in t6e
Net6erlands seem at least as (ell adH8sted and are&ree as ot6er in6abitants o& Nort6ern E8rope?
'et t6eir dikes are all t6at stand bet(een t6em and t6e sea$
-eo)niIin) t6e spe8lati'e nat8re o& t6e K8estion and t6e limitations in o8r kno(led)e, is
it ne'ert6eless possible to en'ision terra&ormin) t6e planetsD
*e need look no &8rt6er t6an o8r o(n (orld to see t6at 68mans are no( able to alter
planetar7 en'ironments in a pro&o8nd (a7$ !epletion o& t6e oIone la7er, )lobal (armin) &rom
an inreased )reen6o8se e&&et, and )lobal oolin) &rom n8lear (ar are all (a7s in (6i6
present te6nolo)7 an si)ni&iantl7 alter t6e en'ironment o& o8r (orldGand in ea6 ase as an
inad'ertent onseK8ene o& doin) somet6in) else$ I& (e 6ad in"en)e) to alter o8r planetar7
en'ironment, (e (o8ld be &8ll7 able to )enerate still )reater 6an)e$ ,s o8r te6nolo)7 beomes
more po(er&8l, (e (ill be able to (ork still more pro&o8nd 6an)es$
B8t H8st as =in parallel parkin)< itAs easier to )et o8t o& a parkin) plae t6an into one, itAs
easier to destro7 a planetar7 en'ironment t6an to mo'e it into a narro(l7 presribed ran)e o&
temperat8res, press8res, ompositions, and so on$ *e alread7 kno( o& a m8ltit8de o& desolate
and 8nin6abitable (orlds, andG(it6 'er7 narro( mar)insGonl7 one )reen and lement one$
16"
36is is a maHor onl8sion &rom earl7 in t6e era o& spaera&t eCploration o& t6e Solar S7stem$ In
alterin) t6e Eart6, or an7 (orld (it6 an atmosp6ere, (e m8st be 'er7 are&8l abo8t positi'e
&eedbaks, (6ere (e n8d)e an en'ironment a little bit and it takes o& on its o(nGa little oolin)
leadin) to r8na(a7 )laiation, as ma7 6a'e 6appened on 5ars, or a little (armin) to a r8na(a7
)reen6o8se e&&et, as 6appened on #en8s$ It is not at all lear t6at o8r kno(led)e is s8&&iient to
t6is p8rpose$
,s &ar as I kno(, t6e &irst s8))estion in t6e sienti&i literat8re abo8t terra&ormin) t6e
planets (as made in a 1961 artile I (rote abo8t #en8s$ I (as prett7 s8re t6en t6at #en8s 6ad a
s8r&ae temperat8re (ell abo'e t6e normal boilin) point o& (ater, prod8ed b7 a arbon
dioCideN(ater 'apor )reen6o8se e&&et$ I ima)ined seedin) its 6i)6 lo8ds (it6 )enetiall7
en)ineered miroor)anisms t6at (o8ld take +2
"
, N
"
, and 4
"
2 o8t o& t6e atmosp6ere and
on'ert t6em into or)ani mole8les$ 36e more +2
"
remo'ed, t6e smaller t6e )reen6o8se e&&et
and t6e ooler t6e s8r&ae$ 36e mirobes (o8ld be arried do(n t6ro8)6 t6e atmosp6ere to(ard
t6e )ro8nd, (6ere t6e7 (o8ld be &ried, so (ater 'apor (o8ld be ret8rned to t6e atmosp6ere? b8t
t6e arbon &rom t6e +2" (o8ld be on'erted irre'ersibl7 b7 t6e 6i)6 temperat8res into )rap6ite
or some ot6er in'olatile &orm o& arbon$ E'ent8all7, t6e temperat8res (o8ld &all belo( t6e
boilin) point and t6e s8r&ae o& #en8s (o8ld beome 6abitable, dotted (it6 pools and lakes o&
(arm (ater$
36e idea (as soon taken 8p b7 a n8mber o& siene &ition a8t6ors in t6e ontin8in) dane
bet(een siene and siene &itionGin (6i6 t6e siene stim8lates t6e &ition, and t6e &ition
stim8lates a ne( )eneration o& sientists, a proess bene&itin) bot6 )enres$ B8t as t6e neCt step
in t6e dane, it is no( lear t6at seedin) #en8s (it6 speial p6otos7nt6eti miroor)anisms (ill
not (ork$ Sine 1961 (eA'e diso'ered t6at t6e lo8ds o& #en8s are a onentrated sol8tion o&
s8l&8ri aid, (6i6 makes t6e )eneti en)ineerin) rat6er more 6allen)in)$ B8t t6at in itsel& is
not a &atal &la($ =36ere are miroor)anisms t6at li'e o8t t6eir li'es in onentrated sol8tions o&
s8l&8ri aid$< 4ereAs t6e &atal &la(: In 1961 I t6o8)6t t6e atmosp6eri press8re at t6e s8r&ae o&
#en8s N[-as a &e( Bbars,B a &e( times t6e s8r&ae press8re on Eart6$ *e no( kno( it to be 90
bars, so t6at i& t6e s6eme (orked, t6e res8lt (o8ld be a s8r&ae b8ried in 68ndreds o& meters o&
&ine )rap6ite, and an atmosp6ere made o& 65 bars o& almost p8re mole8lar oC7)en$ *6et6er (e
(o8ld &irst implode 8nder t6e atmosp6eri press8re or spontaneo8sl7 b8rst into &lames in all t6at
oC7)en is an open K8estion$ 4o(e'er, lon) be&ore so m86 oC7)en o8ld b8ild 8p, t6e )rap6ite
(o8ld spontaneo8sl7 b8rn bak into +2
"
, s6ort-ir8itin) t6e proess$ ,t best, s86 a s6eme
an arr7 t6e terra&ormin) o& #en8s onl7 part(a7$
.etAs ass8me t6at b7 t6e earl7 t(ent7-seond ent8r7 (e 6a'e omparati'el7 ineCpensi'e
6ea'7-li&t 'e6iles, so (e an arr7 lar)e pa7loads to ot6er (orlds? ab8ndant and po(er&8l
&8sion reators? and (ell-de'eloped )eneti en)ineerin)$ ,ll t6ree ass8mptions are likel7, )i'en
8rrent trends$ +o8ld (e terra&orm t6e planetsD
1
>ames 0ollak o& N,S,As ,mes -esear6
1
*illiamson, 0ro&essor Emerit8s o& En)lis6 at Eastern Ne( 5eCio 1ni'ersit7 at a)e ;5 (rote to me t6at 6e (as BamaIed to see
6o( &ar at8al siene 6as omeB sine 6e &irst s8))ested terra&ormin) ot6er (orlds$ *e are a8m8latin) t6e te6nolo)7 t6at (ill
one da7 permit terra&ormin), b8t at present all A#-a 6a'e are s8))estions b7 and lar)e less )ro8nd breakin) t6an *illiamsonAs
ori)inal ideas$
163
+enter and I s8r'e7ed t6is problem$ 4ereAs a s8mmar7 o& (6at (e &o8nd:
#EN1S: +learl7 t6e problem (it6 #en8s is its massi'e )reen6o8se e&&et$ I& (e o8ld
red8e t6e )reen6o8se e&&et almost to Iero, t6e limate mi)6t be balm7$ B8t a 90-bar +2
"
atmosp6ere is oppressi'el7 t6ik$ 2'er e'er7 posta)e stamp-siIed sK8are in6 o& s8r&ae, t6e air
(ei)6s as m86 as siC pro&essional &ootball pla7ers, piled one on top o& anot6er$ 5akin) all t6at
)o a(a7 (ill take some doin)$
Ima)ine bombardin) #en8s (it6 asteroids and omets$ Ea6 impat (o8ld blo( a(a7
some o& t6e atmosp6ere$ 3o blo( a(a7 almost all o& it, t6o8)6, (o8ld reK8ire 8sin) 8p more bi)
asteroids and omets t6an t6ere areGat least in t6e planetar7 part o& t6e Solar S7stem$ E'en i&
t6at man7 potential impators eCisted, e'en i& (e o8ld make t6em all ollide (it6 #en8s =t6is is
t6e o'erkill approa6 to t6e impat 6aIard problem<, t6ink (6at (e (o8ld 6a'e lost$ *6o
kno(s (6at (onders, (6at pratial kno(led)e t6e7 ontainD *e (o8ld also obliterate m86 o&
#en8sA )or)eo8s s8r&ae )eolo)7G(6i6 (eA'e H8st be)8n to 8nderstand, and (6i6 ma7 tea6
8s m86 abo8t t6e Eart6$ 36is is an eCample o& br8te&ore terra&ormin)$ I s8))est (e (ant to
steer entirel7 lear o& s86 met6ods, e'en i& someda7 (eAll be able to a&&ord t6em =(6i6 I 'er7
m86 do8bt<$ *e (ant somet6in) more ele)ant, more s8btle, more respet&8l o& t6e
en'ironments o& ot6er (orlds$ , mirobial approa6 6as some o& t6ose 'irt8es, b8t does not do
t6e trik, as (eA'e H8st seen$
*e an ima)ine p8l'eriIin) a dark asteroid and spreadin) t6e po(der t6ro8)6 t6e 8pper
atmosp6ere o& #en8s, or arr7in) s86 d8st 8p &rom t6e s8r&ae$ 36is (o8ld be t6e p67sial
eK8i'alent o& n8lear (inter or t6e +retaeo8s-3ertiar7 post-impat limate$ I& t6e s8nli)6t
rea6in) t6e )ro8nd is s8&&iientl7 atten8ated, t6e s8r&ae temperat8re m8st &all$ B8t b7 its 'er7
nat8re, t6is option pl8n)es #en8s into deep )loom, (it6 da7time li)6t le'els per6aps onl7 as
bri)6t as on a moonlit ni)6t on Eart6$ 36e oppressi'e, r8s6in) 90-bar atmosp6ere (o8ld remain
8nto86ed$ Sine t6e emplaed d8st (o8ld sediment o8t e'er7 &e( 7ears, t6e la7er (o8ld 6a'e
to be replenis6ed in t6e same period o& time$ 0er6aps s86 an approa6 (o8ld be aeptable &or
s6ort eCplorator7 missions, b8t t6e en'ironment )enerated seems 'er7 stark &or a sel&-s8stainin)
68man omm8nit7 on #en8s$
*e o8ld 8se a )iant arti&iial s8ns6ade in orbit aro8nd #en8s to ool t6e s8r&ae? b8t it
(o8ld be enormo8sl7 eCpensi'e, as (ell as 6a'in) man7 o& t6e de&iienies o& t6e d8st la7er$
4o(e'er, i& t6e temperat8res o8ld be lo(ered s8&&iientl7, t6e +2" in t6e atmosp6ere (o8ld
rain o8t$ 36ere (o8ld be a transitional time o& +2
"
oeans on #en8s$ I& t6ose oeans o8ld be
o'ered o'er to pre'ent re-e'aporationG&or eCample, (it6 (ater oeans made b7 meltin) a
lar)e, i7 moon transported &rom t6e o8ter Solar S7stemGt6en t6e +2
"
mi)6t onei'abl7 be
seK8estered a(a7, and #en8s on'erted into a (ater =or lo(-&iII seltIer< planet$ *a7s 6a'e also
been s8))ested to on'ert t6e +2" into arbonate rok$
368s all proposals &or terra&ormin) #en8s are still br8te-&ore, inele)ant, and abs8rdl7
eCpensi'e$ 36e desired planetar7 metamorp6osis ma7 be be7ond o8r rea6 &or a 'er7 lon) time,
164
e'en i& (e t6o8)6t it (as desirable and responsible$ 36e ,sian oloniIation o& #en8s t6at >ak
*illiamson ima)ined ma7 6a'e to be redireted some(6ere else$
5,-S: %or 5ars (e 6a'e H8st t6e opposite problem$ 36ereAs not enoug( )reen6o8se e&&et$
36e planet is a &roIen desert$ B8t t6e &at t6at 5ars seems to 6a'e 6ad ab8ndant ri'ers, lakes,
and per6aps e'en oeans 4 billion 7ears a)oGat a time (6en t6e S8n (as less bri)6t t6an it is
toda7Gmakes 7o8 (onder i& t6ereAs sol'e nat8ral instabilit7 in t6e 5artian limate, somet6in)
on 6air tri))er t6at one released (o8ld all b7 itsel& ret8rn t6e planet to its anient lement state$
=.etAs note &rom t6e start t6at doin) so (o8ld destro7 5artian land&orms t6at 6old ke7 data on
t6e pastGespeiall7 t6e laminated polar terrain$<
,s (e kno( 'er7 (ell &rom Eart6 and #en8s, arbon dioCide is a )reen6o8se )as$ 36ere are
arbonate minerals &o8nd on 5ars, and dr7 ie in one o& t6e polar aps$ 36e7 o8ld be on'erted
into +2
"
)as$ B8t to make eno8)6 o& a )reen6o8se e&&et to )enerate om&ortable temperat8res
on 5ars (o8ld reK8ire t6e entire s8r&ae o& t6e planet to be plo(ed 8p and proessed to a dept6
o& kilometers$ ,part &rom t6e da8ntin) obstales in pratial en)ineerin) t6at t6is representsG
&8sion po(er or no &8sion po(erGand t6e inon'eniene to (6ate'er sel&-ontained, losed
eolo)ial s7stems 68mans 6ad alread7 establis6ed on t6e planet it (o8ld also onstit8te t6e
irresponsible destr8tion o& a 8niK8e sienti&i reso8re and database, t6e 5artian s8r&ae$
*6at abo8t ot6er )reen6o8se )asesD ,lternati'el7, (e mi)6t take 6loro&l8oroarbons
=+%+s or 4+%+s< to 5ars a&ter man8&at8rin) t6em on Eart6$ 36ese are arti&iial s8bstanes
t6at, so &ar as (e kno(, are &o8nd no(6ere else in t6e Solar S7stem$ *e an ertainl7 ima)ine
man8&at8rin) eno8)6 +%+s on Eart6 to (arm 5ars, bea8se b7 a77i)en" in a &e( deades (it6
present te6nolo)7 on Eart6 (eA'e mana)ed to s7nt6esiIe eno8)6 to ontrib8te to )lobal
(armin) on o8r planet$ 3ransportation to 5ars (o8ld be eCpensi'e, t6o8)6: E'en 8sin) Sa"urn
V- or Energi$a-lass boosters9 it (o8ld reK8ire at least a la8n6 a da7 &or a ent8r7$ B8t per6aps
t6e7 o8ld be man8&at8red &rom &l8orine-ontainin) minerals on 5ars$
36ere is, in addition, a serio8s dra(bak: 2n 5ars as on Eart6, ab8ndant +%+s (o8ld
pre'ent &ormation o& an oIone la7er$ +%+s mi)6t brin) 5artian temperat8res into a lement
ran)e, b8t )8arantee t6at t6e solar 8ltra'iolet 6aIard (o8ld remain eCtremel7 serio8s$ 0er6aps
t6e solar 8ltra'iolet li)6t o8ld be absorbed b7 an atmosp6eri la7er o& p8l'eriIed asteroidal or
s8r&ae debris inHeted in are&8ll7 titrated amo8nts abo'e t6e +%+s$ B8t no( (eAre in t6e
tro8blin) ir8mstane o& 6a'in) to deal (it6 propa)atin) side e&&ets, ea6 o& (6i6 reK8ires its
o(n lar)e-sale te6nolo)ial sol8tion$
, t6ird possible )reen6o8se )as &or (armin) 5ars is ammonia =N4
3
<$ 2nl7 a little ammonia
(o8ld be eno8)6 to (arm t6e 5artian s8r&ae to abo'e t6e &reeIin) point o& (ater$ In priniple,
t6is mi)6t be done b7 speiall7 en)ineered miroor)anisms t6at (o8ld on'ert 5artian
atmosp6eri N
"
to N4
3
as some mirobes do on Eart6, b8t do it 8nder 5artian onditions$ 2r t6e
same on'ersion mi)6t be done in speial &atories$ ,lternati'el7, t6e nitro)en reK8ired o8ld be
arried to 5ars &rom else(6ere in t6e Solar S7stem$ =N
"
is t6e prinipal onstit8ent in t6e
165
atmosp6eres o& bot6 Eart6 and 3itan$< 1ltra'iolet li)6t (o8ld on'ert ammonia bak into N
"
in
abo8t 30 7ears, so t6ere (o8ld 6a'e to be a ontin8o8s res8ppl7 o& N4
3
$
, H8diio8s ombination o& +2
"
, +%+, and N4
3
)reen6o8se e&&ets on 5ars looks as i& it
mi)6t be able to brin) s8r&ae temperat8res lose eno8)6 to t6e &reeIin) point o& (ater &or t6e
seond p6ase o& 5artian terra&ormin) to be)inGtemperat8res risin) d8e to t6e press8re o&
s8bstantial (ater 'apor in t6e air, (idespread prod8tion o& 2
"
b7 )enetiall7 en)ineered plants,
and &ine-t8nin) t6e s8r&ae en'ironment$ 5irobes and lar)er plants and animals o8ld be
establis6ed on 5ars be&ore t6e o'erall en'ironment (as s8itable &or 8nproteted 68man settlers$
3erra&ormin) 5ars is plainl7 m86 easier t6an terra&ormin) #en8s$ B8t it is still 'er7
eCpensi'e b7 present standards, and en'ironmentall7 destr8ti'e$ I& t6ere (ere s8&&iient
H8sti&iation, t6o8)6, per6aps t6e terra&ormin) o& 5ars o8ld be 8nder (a7 b7 t6e t(ent7-seond
ent8r7$
34E 522NS 2% >10I3E- ,N! S,31-N: 3erra&ormin) t6e satellites o& t6e >o'ian
planets presents 'ar7in) de)rees o& di&&i8lt7$ 0er6aps t6e easiest to ontemplate is 3itan$ It
alread7 6as an atmosp6ere, made mainl7 o& N
"
like t6e Eart6As, and is m86 loser to terrestrial
atmosp6eri press8res t6an eit6er #en8s or 5ars$ 5oreo'er, important )reen6o8se )ases, s86
as N43 and 4"0, are almost ertainl7 &roIen o8t on its s8r&ae$ 5an8&at8re o& initial )reen6o8se
)ases t6at do not &reeIe o8t at present 3itan temperat8res pl8s diret (armin) o& t6e s8r&ae b7
n8lear &8sion o8ld, it seems, be t6e ke7 earl7 steps to one da7 terra&orm 3itan$
IF THERE WERE A COMPELLING REASON &or terra&ormin) ot6er (orlds, t6is )reatest o&
en)ineerin) proHets mi)6t be &easible on t6e timesale (eA'e been desribin)Gertainl7 &or
asteroids, possibl7 &or 5ars, 3itan, and ot6er moons o& t6e o8ter planets, and probabl7 not &or
#en8s$ 0ollak and I reo)niIed t6at t6ere are t6ose (6o &eel a po(er&8l attration to t6e idea o&
renderin) ot6er (orlds in t6e Solar S7stem s8itable &or 68man 6abitationGin establis6in)
obser'atories, eCplorator7 bases, omm8nities, and 6omesteads t6ere$ Bea8se o& its pioneerin)
6istor7, t6is ma7 be a parti8larl7 nat8ral and attrati'e idea in t6e 1nited States$
In an7 ase, massi'e alteration o& t6e en'ironments o& ot6er (orlds an be done
ompetentl7 and responsibl7 onl7 (6en (e 6a'e a m86 better 8nderstandin) o& t6ose (orlds
t6an is a'ailable toda7$ ,d'oates o& terra&ormin) m8st &irst beome ad'oates o& t6e lon)-term
and t6oro8)6 sienti&i eCploration o& ot6er (orlds$
0er6aps (6en (e reall7 8nderstand t6e di&&i8lties o& terra&ormin), t6e osts or t6e
en'ironmental penalties (ill pro'e too steep, and (e (ill lo(er o8r si)6ts to domed or
s8bs8r&ae ities or ot6er loal, losed eolo)ial s7stems, )reatl7 impro'ed 'ersions o&
Biosp6ere II, on ot6er (orlds$ 0er6aps (e (ill abandon t6e dream o& on'ertin) t6e s8r&aes o&
ot6er (orlds to somet6in) approa6in) t6e Eart6As$ 2r per6aps t6ere are m86 more ele)ant,
ost-e&&eti'e, and en'ironmentall7 responsible (a7s o& terra&ormin) t6at (e 6a'e not 7et
ima)ined$
166
B8t i& (e are serio8sl7 to p8rs8e t6e matter, ertain K8estions o8)6t to be asked: /i'en
t6at an7 terra&ormin) s6eme entails a balane o& bene&its a)ainst osts, 6o( ertain m8st (e be
t6at ke7 sienti&i in&ormation (ill not t6ereb7 be destro7ed be&ore proeedin)D 4o( m86
8nderstandin) o& t6e (orld in K8estion do (e need be&ore planetar7 en)ineerin) an be relied
8pon to prod8e t6e desired end stateD +an (e )8arantee a lon)-term 68man ommitment to
maintain and replenis6 an en)ineered (orld, (6en 68man politial instit8tions are so s6ort
li'edD I& a (orld is e'en onei'abl7 in6abitedGper6aps onl7 b7 miroor)anismsGdo 68mans
6a'e a ri)6t to alter itD *6at is o8r responsibilit7 to preser'e t6e (orlds o& t6e Solar S7stem in
t6eir present (ilderness states &or &8t8re )enerations-(6o ma7 ontemplate 8ses t6at toda7 (e
are too i)norant to &oreseeD 36ese K8estions ma7 per6aps be enaps8lated into a &inal K8estion:
+an (e, (6o 6a'e made s86 a mess o& "(i (orld, be tr8sted (it6 ot6ersD
It is H8st onei'able t6at some o& t6e te6niK8es t6at mi)6t e'ent8all7 terra&orm ot6er
(orlds mi)6t be applied to ameliorate t6e dama)e (e 6a'e done to t6is one$ +onsiderin) t6e
relati'e 8r)enies, a 8se&8l indiation o& (6en t6e 68man speies is read7 to onsider
terra&ormin) serio8sl7 is (6en (e 6a'e p8t o8r o(n (orld ri)6t$ *e an onsider it a test o& t6e
dept6 o& o8r 8nderstandin) and o8r ommitment$ 36e &irst step in en)ineerin) t6e Solar S7stem
is to )8arantee t6e 6abitabilit7 o& t6e Eart6$
36en (eAll be read7 to spread o8t to asteroids, omets, 5ars, t6e moons o& t6e o8ter Solar
S7stem, and be7ond$ >ak *illiamson As predition t6at t6is (ill be)in to ome abo8t b7 t6e
t(ent7-seond ent8r7 ma7 not be &ar o&& t6e mark$
THE NOTION OF OUR DESCENDANTS li'in) and (orkin) on ot6er (orlds, and e'en mo'in)
some o& t6em aro8nd &or t6eir on'eniene, seems t6e most eCtra'a)ant siene &ition$ Be
realisti, a 'oie inside m7 6ead o8nsels$ B8t t6is is realisti$ *eAre on t6e 8sp o& t6e
te6nolo)7, near t6e midpoint bet(een impossible and ro8tine$ ItAs eas7 to be on&lited abo8t it$
I& (e donAt do somet6in) a(&8l to o8rsel'es in t6e interim, in anot6er ent8r7 terra&ormin) ma7
seem no more impossible t6an a 68man-tended spae station does toda7$
I t6ink t6e eCperiene o& li'in) on ot6er (orlds is bo8nd to 6an)e 8s$ 28r desendants,
born and raised else(6ere, (ill nat8rall7 be)in to o(e primar7 lo7alt7 to t6e (orlds o& t6eir
birt6, (6ate'er a&&etion t6e7 retain &or t6e Eart6$ 36eir p67sial needs, t6eir met6ods o&
s8ppl7in) t6ose needs, t6eir te6nolo)ies, and t6eir soial str8t8res (ill all 6a'e to be di&&erent$
, blade o& )rass is a ommonplae on Eart6? it (o8ld be a mirale on 5ars$ 28r
desendants on 5ars (ill kno( t6e 'al8e o& a pat6 o& )reen$ ,nd i& a blade o& )rass is
prieless, (6at is t6e 'al8e o& a 68man bein)D 36e ,merian re'ol8tionar7 3om 0aine, in
desribin) 6is ontemporaries, 6ad t6o8)6ts alon) t6ese lines:
36e (ants (6i6 neessaril7 aompan7 t6e 8lti'ation o& a (ilderness prod8ed amon)
t6em a state o& soiet7 (6i6 o8ntries lon) 6arassed b7 t6e K8arrels and intri)8es o&
)o'ernments 6ad ne)leted to 6eris6$ In s86 a sit8ation man beomes (6at 6e o8)6t to
be$ 4e sees 6is speies $ $ $ as kindred$
167
4a'in) seen at &irst 6and a proession o& barren and desolate (orlds, it (ill be nat8ral &or
o8r spae&arin) desendants to 6eris6 li&e$ 4a'in) learned somet6in) &rom t6e ten8re o& o8r
speies on Eart6, t6e7 ma7 (is6 to appl7 t6ose lessons to ot6er (orldsGto spare )enerations to
ome t6e a'oidable s8&&erin) t6at t6eir anestors (ere obli)ed to end8re, and to dra( 8pon o8r
eCperiene and o8r mistakes as (e be)in o8r open-ended e'ol8tion into spae$
C H A P T E R 2 0
!,-ENESS

%ar a(a7, 6idden &rom t6e e7es o& da7li)6t, t6ere are (at6ers in t6e skies$

E1-I0I!ES, /1E >A##1AE C#A3 F06 >3#3)
16;
As 6ildren, (e &ear t6e dark$ ,n7t6in) mi)6t be o8t$ 6ere$ 36e 8nkno(n tro8bles 8s$
Ironiall7, it is o8r &ate to li'e in t6e dark$ 36is 8neCpeted &indin) o& siene is onl7 abo8t t6ree
ent8ries old$ 4ead o8t &rom t6e Eart6 in an7 diretion 7o8 6oose, andGa&ter an initial &las6 o&
bl8e and a lon)er (ait (6ile t6e S8n &adesG7o8 are s8rro8nded b7 blakness, p8nt8ated onl7
6ere and t6ere b7 t6e &aint and distant stars$
E'en a&ter (e are )ro(n, t6e darkness retains its po(er to &ri)6ten 8s$ ,nd so t6ere are
t6ose (6o sa7 (e s6o8ld not inK8ire too losel7 into (6o else mi)6t be li'in) in t6at darkness$
Better not to kno(, t6e7 sa7$
36ere are 400 billion stars in t6e 5ilk7 *a7 /alaC7$ 2& t6is immense m8ltit8de, o8ld it be
t6at o8r 68mdr8m S8n is t6e onl7 one (it6 an in6abited planetD 5a7be$ 5a7be t6e ori)in o& li&e
or intelli)ene is eCeedin)l7 improbable$ 2r ma7be i'iliIations arise all t6e time, b8t (ipe
t6emsel'es o8t as soon as t6e7 are able$
2r, 6ere and t6ere, peppered aross spae, orbitin) ot6er s8ns, ma7be t6ere are (orlds
somet6in) like o8r o(n, on (6i6 ot6er bein)s )aIe 8p and (onder as (e do abo8t (6o else
li'es in t6e dark$ +o8ld t6e 5ilk7 *a7 be ripplin) (it6 li&e and intelli)eneG(orlds allin) o8t
to (orldsG(6ile (e on Eart6 are ali'e at t6e ritial moment (6en (e &irst deide to listenD
28r speies 6as diso'ered a (a7 to omm8niate t6ro8)6 t6e dark, to transend immense
distanes$ No means o& omm8niation is &aster or 6eaper or rea6es o8t &art6er$ ItAs alled
radio$
,&ter billions o& 7ears o& biolo)ial e'ol8tionGon t6eir planet and o8rsGan alien
i'iliIation annot be in te6nolo)ial lokstep (it6 8s$ 36ere 6a'e been 68mans &or more t6an
t(ent7 t6o8sand ent8ries, b8t (eA'e 6ad radio onl7 &or abo8t one ent8r7$ I& alien i'iliIations
are be6ind 8s, t6e7Are likel7 to be too &ar be6ind to 6a'e radio$ ,nd i& t6e7Are a6ead o& 8s, t6e7Are
likel7 to be &ar a6ead o& 8s$ 36ink o& t6e te6nial ad'anes on o8r (orld o'er H8st t6e last &e(
ent8ries$ *6at is &or 8s te6nolo)iall7 di&&i8lt or impossible, (6at mi)6t seem to 8s like
ma)i, mi)6t &or t6em be tri'iall7 eas7$ 36e7 mi)6t 8se ot6er, 'er7 ad'aned means to
omm8niate (it6 t6eir peers, b8t t6e7 (o8ld kno( abo8t radio as an approa6 to ne(l7
emer)in) i'iliIations$ E'en (it6 no more t6an o8r le'el o& te6nolo)7 at t6e transmittin) and
reei'in) ends, (e o8ld omm8niate toda7 aross m86 o& t6e /alaC7$ 36e7 s6o8ld be able to
do m86 better$
I& t6e7 eCist$
B8t o8r &ear o& t6e dark rebels$ 36e idea o& alien bein)s tro8bles 8s$ *e onH8re 8p
obHetions:
H!"6 "oo expeni4e3H B8t, in its &8llest modern te6nolo)ial eCpression, it osts less t6an
one attak 6eliopter a 7ear$
169
H:e6ll ne4er un)er"an) <(a" "(e$6re a$ing3H B8t, bea8se t6e messa)e -is transmitted b7
radio, (e and t6e7 m8st 6a'e radio p67sis, radio astronom7, and radio te6nolo)7 in ommon$
36e la(s o& Nat8re are t6e same e'er7(6ere? so siene itsel& pro'ides a means and lan)8a)e o&
omm8niation e'en bet(een 'er7 di&&erent kinds o& bein)sGpro'ided t6e7 bot6 6a'e siene$
%i)8rin) o8t t6e messa)e, i& (eAre &ort8nate eno8)6 to reei'e one, ma7 be m86 easier t6an
aK8irin) it$
H!" <oul) ;e )emorali+ing "o learn "(a" our 7ien7e i primi"i4e3H B8t b7 t6e standards o&
t6e neCt &e( ent8ries, at least some o& o8r present siene (ill be onsidered primiti'e,
eCtraterrestrials or no eCtraterrestrials$ =So (ill some o& o8r present politis, et6is, eonomis,
and reli)ion$< 3o )o be7ond present siene is one o&$ t6e 6ie& )oals o& siene$ Serio8s st8dents
are not ommonl7 pl8n)ed into &its o& despair on t8rnin) t6e pa)es o& a teCtbook and diso'erin)
t6at some &8rt6er topi is kno(n to t6e a8t6or b8t not 7et to t6e st8dent$ 1s8all7 t6e st8dents
str8))le a little, aK8ire t6e ne( kno(led)e, and, &ollo(in) an anient 68man tradition, ontin8e
to t8rn t6e pa)es$
HAll "(roug( (i"or$ a)4an7e) 7i4ili+a"ion (a4e ruine) 7i4ili+a"ion Au" lig("l$ more
;a7k<ar)3H +ertainl7$ B8t male'olent aliens, s6o8ld t6e7 eCist, (ill not diso'er o8r eCistene
&rom t6e &at t6at (e listen$ 36e sear6 pro)rams onl7 reei'e? t6e7 do not send$
1
THE DEBATE IS, &or t6e moment, moot$ *e are no(, on an 8npreedented sale, listenin) &or
radio si)nals &rom possible ot6er i'iliIations in t6e dept6s o& spae$ ,li'e toda7 is t6e &irst
)eneration o& sientists to interro)ate t6e darkness$ +onei'abl7 it mi)6t also be t6e last
)eneration be&ore ontat is madeGand t6is t6e last moment be&ore (e diso'er t6at someone in
t6e darkness is allin) o8t to 8s$
36is K8est is alled t6e Sear6 &or ECtraterrestrial Intelli)ene =SE3I<$ .et me desribe 6o(
&ar (eA'e ome$
36e &irst SE3I pro)ram (as arried o8t b7 %rank !rake at t6e National -adio ,stronom7
2bser'ator7 in /reenbank, *est #ir)inia, in 1960$ 4e listened to t(o nearb7 S8n-like stars &or
t(o (eeks at one parti8lar &reK8en7$ =BNearb7B is a relati'e term: 36e nearest (as 1" li)6t-
7earsG70 trillion milesGa(a7$<
,lmost at t6e moment !rake pointed t6e radio telesope and t8rned t6e s7stem on, 6e piked
8p a 'er7 stron) si)nal$ *as it a messa)e &rom alien bein)sD 36en it (ent a(a7$ I& t6e si)nal
disappears, 7o8 anAt sr8tiniIe it$ :o8 anAt see i&, bea8se o& t6e Eart6As rotation, it mo'es (it6
t6e sk7$ I& itAs not repeatable, 7o8A'e learned almost not6in) &rom itGit mi)6t be terrestrial radio
inter&erene, or a &ail8re o& 7o8r ampli&ier or detetor $ $ $ or an alien si)nal$ 1nrepeatable data,
no matter 6o( ill8strio8s t6e sientist reportin) t6em, are not (ort6 m86$
*eeks later, t6e si)nal (as deteted a)ain$ It t8rned o8t to be a militar7 airra&t
1
S8rprisin)l7 man7 people, inl8din) Ne( :ork 3imes editorialists, are onerned t6at one eCtraterrestrials kno( (6ere (e are,
t6e7 (ill ome 6ere and eat 8s$ 08t aside t6e pro&o8nd biolo)ial di&&erenes t6at m8st eCist bet(een t6e 67pot6etial aliens and
o8rsel'es? ima)ine t6at (e onstit8te an interstellar )astronomi delia7$ *67 transport lar)e n8mbers o& 8s to alien resta8rantsD
36e &rei)6ta)e is enormo8s$ *o8ldnAt it be better H8st to steal a &e( 68mans, seK8ene o8r amino aids or (6ate'er else is t6e
so8re o& o8r deletabilit7, and t6en H8st s7nt6esiIe t6e idential &ood prod8t &rom srat6D
170
broadastin) on an 8na8t6oriIed &reK8en7$ !rake reported ne)ati'e res8lts$ B8t in siene a
ne)ati'e res8lt is not at all t6e same t6in) as a &ail8re$ 4is )reat a6ie'ement (as to s6o( t6at
modern te6nolo)7 is &8ll7 able to listen &or si)nals &rom 67pot6etial i'iliIations on t6e planets
o& ot6er stars$
Sine t6en t6ereA'e been a n8mber o& attempts, o&ten on time borro(ed &rom ot6er radio
telesope obser'in) pro)rams, and almost ne'er &or lon)er t6an a &e( mont6s$ 36ereA'e been
some more &alse alarms, at 26io State, in ,reibo, 08erto -io, in %rane, -8ssia, and else(6ere,
b8t not6in) t6at o8ld pass m8ster (it6 t6e (orld sienti&i omm8nit7$
5ean(6ile, t6e te6nolo)7 &or detetion 6as been )ettin) 6eaper? t6e sensiti'it7 keeps
impro'in)? t6e sienti&i respetabilit7 o& SE3I 6as ontin8ed to )ro(? and e'en N,S, and
+on)ress 6a'e beome a little less a&raid to s8pport it$ !i'erse, omplementar7 sear6 strate)ies
are possible and neessar7$ It (as lear 7ears a)o t6at i& t6e trend ontin8ed, t6e te6nolo)7 &or a
ompre6ensi'e SE3I e&&ort (o8ld e'ent8all7 &all (it6in t6e rea6 e'en o& pri'ate or)aniIations
=or (ealt67 indi'id8als<? and sooner or later, t6e )o'ernment (o8ld be (illin) to s8pport a maHor
pro)ram$ ,&ter 30 7ears o& (ork, &or some o& 8s itAs been later rat6er t6an sooner$ B8t at last t6e
time 6as ome$
THE PLANETARY SOCIETY-a nonpro&it members6ip or)aniIation t6at Br8e 58rra7, t6en t6e
!iretor o& >0., and I &o8nded in 19;0Gis de'oted to planetar7 eCploration and t6e sear6 &or
eCtraterrestrial li&e$ 0a8l 4oro(itI, a p67siist at 4ar'ard 1ni'ersit7, 6ad made a n8mber o&
important inno'ations &or SE3I and (as ea)er to tr7 t6em o8t$ I& (e o8ld &ind t6e mone7 to )et
6im started, (e t6o8)6t (e o8ld ontin8e to s8pport t6e pro)ram b7 donations &rom o8r
members$
In 19;3 ,nn !r87an and I s8))ested to t6e &ilmmaker Ste'en Spielber) t6at t6is (as an
ideal proHet &or 6im to s8pport$ Breakin) (it6 4oll7(ood tradition, 6e 6ad in t(o (ildl7
s8ess&8l mo'ies on'e7ed t6e idea t6at eCtraterrestrial bein)s mi)6t not be 6ostile and
dan)ero8s$ Spielber) a)reed$ *it6 6is initial s8pport t6ro8)6 36e 0lanetar7 Soiet7, 0roHet
5E3, be)an$
5E3, is an aron7m &or B5e)a6annel ECtra3errestrial ,ssa7$B 36e sin)le &reK8en7 o&
!rakeAs &irst s7stem )re( to ;$4 million$ B8t ea6 6annel, ea6 Bstation,B (e t8ne to 6as an
eCeptionall7 narro( &reK8en7 ran)e$ 36ere are no kno(n proesses o8t amon) t6e stars and
)alaCies t6at an )enerate s86 s6arp radio Blines$B I& (e pik 8p an7t6in) &allin) into so narro(
a 6annel, it m8st, (e t6ink, be a token o& intelli)ene and te6nolo)7$
*6atAs more, t6e Eart6 t8rnsG(6i6 means t6at an7 distant radio so8re (ill 6a'e a
siIable apparent motion, like t6e risin) and settin) o& t6e stars$ >8st as t6e stead7 tone o& a arAs
6orn dips as it dri'es b7, so an7 a8t6enti eCtraterrestrial radio so8re (ill eC6ibit a stead7 dri&t
in &reK8en7 d8e to t6e Eart6As rotation$ In ontrast, an7 so8re o& radio inter&erene at t6e
Eart6As s8r&ae (ill be rotatin) at t6e same speed as t6e 5E3, reei'er$ 5E3,As listenin)
&reK8enies are ontin8o8sl7 6an)ed to ompensate &or t6e Eart6As rotation, so t6at an7 narro(-
band Si)nals &rom t6e sk7 (ill al(a7s appear in a sin)le 6annel$ B8t an7 radio inter&erene
do(n 6ere on Eart6 (ill )i'e itsel& a(a7 b7 rain) t6ro8)6 adHaent 6annels$
171
36e 5E3, radio telesope at 4ar'ard, 5assa68setts, is "6 meters =;4 &eet< in diameter$
Ea6 da7, as t6e Eart6 rotates t6e telesope beneat6 t6e sk7, a s(at6 o& stars narro(er t6an t6e
&8ll moon is s(ept o8t and eCamined$ NeCt da7, itAs an adHaent s(at6$ 2'er a 7ear, all o& t6e
nort6ern sk7 and part o& t6e so8t6ern is obser'ed$ ,n idential s7stem, also sponsored b7 36e
0lanetar7 Soiet7, is in operation H8st o8tside B8enos ,ires, ,r)entina, to eCamine t6e so8t6ern
sk7$ So to)et6er t6e t(o 5E3, s7stems 6a'e been eCplorin) t6e entire sk7$
36e radio telesope, )ra'itationall7 )l8ed to t6e spinnin) Eart6, looks at an7 )i'en star &or
abo8t t(o min8tes$ 36en itAs on to t6e neCt$ ;$4 million 6annels so8nds like a lot, b8t
remember, ea6 6annel is 'er7 narro($ ,ll o& t6em to)et6er onstit8te onl7 a &e( parts in
100,000 o& t6e a'ailable radio spetr8m$ So (e 6a'e to park o8r ;$4 million 6annels
some(6ere in t6e radio spetr8m &or ea6 7ear o& obser'ation, near some &reK8en7 t6at an
alien i'iliIation, kno(in) not6in) abo8t 8s, mi)6t ne'ert6eless onl8de (eAre listenin) to$
47dro)en is b7 &ar t6e most ab8ndant kind o& atom in t6e 1ni'erse$ ItAs distrib8ted in lo8ds
and as di&&8se )as t6ro8)6o8t interstellar spae$ *6en it aK8ires ener)7, it releases some o& it b7
)i'in) o&& radio (a'es at a preise &reK8en7 o& 14"0$40575176; me)a6ertI$ =2ne 6ertI means
t6e rest and tro8)6 o& a (a'e arri'in) at 7o8r detetion instr8ment ea6 seond$ So 14"0
me)a6ertI means 1$4"0 ;illion (a'es enterin) 7o8r detetor e'er7 seond$ Sine t6e (a'elen)t6
o& li)6t is H8st t6e speed o& li)6t di'ided b7 t6e &reK8en7 o& t6e (a'e, 14"0 me)a6ertI
orresponds to a (a'elen)t6 o& "1 entimeters$< -adio astronomers an7(6ere in t6e /alaC7 (ill
be st8d7in) t6e 1ni'erse at 14"0 me)a6ertI and an antiipate t6at ot6er radio astronomers, no
matter 6o( di&&erent t6e7 ma7 look, (ill do t6e same$
ItAs as i& someone told 7o8 t6at t6ereAs onl7 one station on 7o8r 6ome radio setAs &reK8en7
band, b8t t6at no one kno(s its &reK8en7$ 26 7es, one ot6er t6in): :o8r setAs &reK8en7 dial, kit6
its t6in marker 7o8 adH8st b7 t8rnin) a knob, 6appens to rea6 &rom t6e Eart6 to t6e 5oon$ 3o
sear6 s7stematiall7 t6ro8)6 t6is 'ast radio spetr8m, patientl7 t8rnin) t6e knob, is )oin) to be
'er7 time-ons8min)$ :o8r problem is to set t6e dial orretl7 &rom t6e be)innin), to 6oose t6e
ri)6t &reK8en7$ I& 7o8 an orretl7 )8ess (6at &reK8enies t6at eCtraterrestrials are
broadastin) to 8s onGt6e Bma)iB &reK8eniesGt6en 7o8 an sa'e 7o8rsel& m86 time and
tro8ble$ 36ese are t6e sorts o& reasons t6at (e &irst listened, as !rake did, at &reK8enies near
14"0 me)a6ertI, t6e 67dro)en Bma)iB &reK8en7$
4oro(itI and I 6a'e p8blis6ed detailed res8lts &rom &i'e 7ears o& &8ll-time sear6in) (it6
0roHet 5E3, and t(o 7ears o& &ollo(-8p$ *e anAt report t6at (e &o8nd a si)nal &rom alien
bein)s$ B8t (e did &ind somet6in) p8IIlin), somet6in) t6at &or me in K8iet moments, e'er7 no(
and t6en, raises )oose b8mps:
2& o8rse, t6ereAs a bak)ro8nd le'el o& radio noise &rom Eart6Gradio and tele'ision
stations, airra&t, portable telep6ones, nearb7 and more distant spaera&t$ ,lso, as (it6 all radio
reei'ers, t6e lon)er 7o8 (ait, t6e more likel7 it is t6at t6ereAll be some random &l8t8ation in t6e
eletronis so stron) t6at it )enerates a sp8rio8s si)nal$ So (e i)nore an7t6in) t6at isnAt m86
lo8der t6an t6e bak)ro8nd$
,n7 stron) narro(-band si)nal t6at remains in a sin)le 6annel (e take 'er7 serio8sl7$ ,s it
lo)s in t6e data, 5E3, a8tomatiall7 tells t6e 68man operators to pa7 attention to ertain si)nals$
17"
2'er &i'e 7ears (e made some 60 trillion obser'ations at 'ario8s &reK8enies, (6ile eCaminin)
t6e entire aessible sk7$ , &e( doIen si)nals s8r'i'e t6e 8llin)$ 36ese are s8bHeted to &8rt6er
sr8tin7, and almost all o& t6em are reHeted-&or eCample, bea8se an error 6as been &o8nd b7
&a8lt-detetion miroproessors t6at eCamine t6e si)nal-detetion miroproessors$
*6atAs le&tGt6e stron)est andidate si)nals a&ter t6ree s8r'e7s o& t6e sk7Gare 11 Be'ents$B
36e7 satis&7 all b8t one o& o8r riteria &or a )en8ine alien si)nal$ B8t t6e one &ailed riterion is
s8premel7 important: #eri&iabilit7$ *eA'e ne'er been able to &ind an7 o& t6em a)ain$ *e look
bak at t6at part o& t6e sk7 t6ree min8tes later and t6ereAs not6in) t6ere$ *e look a)ain t6e
&ollo(in) da7: not6in)$ ECamine it a 7ear later, or se'en 7ears later, and still t6ereAs not6in)$
It seems 8nlikel7 t6at e'er7 si)nal (e )et &rom alien i'iliIations (o8ld t8rn itsel& o&& a
o8ple o& min8tes a&ter (e be)in listenin), and ne'er repeat$ =4o( (o8ld t6e7 kno( (eAre
pa7in) attentionD< B8t, H8st possibl7, t6is is t6e e&&et o& t(inklin)$ Stars t(inkle bea8se parels
o& t8rb8lent air are mo'in) aross t6e line o& si)6t bet(een t6e star and 8s$ Sometimes t6ese air
parels at as a lens and a8se t6e li)6t ra7s &rom a )i'en star to on'er)e a little, makin) it
momentaril7 bri)6ter$ Similarl7, astronomial radio so8res ma7 also t(inkleGo(in) to lo8ds
o& eletriall7 6ar)ed =or BioniIedB< )as in t6e )reat near-'a88m bet(een t6e stars$ *e obser'e
t6is ro8tinel7 (it6 p8lsars$
Ima)ine a radio si)nal t6atAs a little belo( t6e stren)t6 t6at (e o8ld ot6er(ise detet on
Eart6$ 2asionall7 t6e si)nal (ill b7 6ane be temporaril7 &o8sed, ampli&ied, and bro8)6t
(it6in t6e detetabilit7 ran)e o& o8r radio telesopes$ 36e interestin) t6in) is t6at t6e li&etimes o&
s86 bri)6tenin), predited &rom t6e p67sis o& t6e interstellar )as, are a &e( min8tesGand t6e
6ane o& reaK8irin) t6e si)nal is small$ *e s6o8ld reall7 be pointin) steadil7 at t6ese
oordinates in t6e sk7, (at6in) t6em &or mont6s$
!espite t6e &at t6at none o& t6ese si)nals repeats, t6ereAs an additional &at abo8t t6em t6at,
e'er7 time I t6ink abo8t it, sends a 6ill do(n m7 spine: ; o& t6e 11 best andidate si)nals lie in
or near t6e plane o& t6e 5ilk7 *a7 /alaC7$ 36e &i'e stron)est are in t6e onstellations
+assiopeia, 5onoeros, 47dra, and t(o in Sa)ittari8sGin t6e approCimate diretion o& t6e
enter o& t6e /alaC7$ 36e 5ilk7 *a7 is a &lat, (6eel-like olletion o& )as and d8st and stars$ Its
&latness is (67 (e see it as a band o& di&&8se li)6t aross t6e ni)6t sk7$ 36atAs (6ere almost all
t6e stars in o8r )alaC7 are$ I& o8r andidate si)nals reall7 (ere radio inter&erene &rom Eart6 or
some 8ndeteted )lit6 in t6e detetion eletronis, (e s6o8ldnAt see t6em pre&erentiall7 (6en
(eAre pointin) at t6e 5ilk7 *a7$
B8t ma7be (e 6ad an espeiall7 8nl8k7 and misleadin) r8n o& statistis$ 36e probabilit7
t6at t6is orrelation (it6 t6e )alati plane is d8e merel7 to 6ane is less t6an 6al& a perent$
Ima)ine a (all-siIe map o& t6e sk7, ran)in) &rom t6e Nort6 Star at t6e top to t6e &ainter stars
to(ard (6i6 t6e Eart6As so8t6 pole points at t6e bottom$ Snakin) aross t6is (all map are t6e
irre)8lar bo8ndaries o& t6e 5ilk7 *a7$ No( s8ppose t6at 7o8 (ere blind&olded and asked to
t6ro( &i'e darts at random at t6e map =(it6 m86 o& t6e so8t6ern sk7, inaessible &rom
5assa68setts, delared o&& limits<$ :o8Ad 6a'e to t6ro( t6e set o& &i'e darts more t6an "00 times
be&ore, b7 aident, 7o8 )ot t6em to &all as losel7 (it6in t6e preints o& t6e 5ilk7 *a7 as t6e
173
&i'e stron)est 5E3, si)nals did$ *it6o8t repeatable si)nals, t6o8)6, t6ereAs no (a7 (e an
onl8de t6at (eA'e at8all7 &o8nd eCtraterrestrial intelli)ene$
2r ma7be t6e e'ents (eA'e &o8nd are a8sed b7 some ne( kind o& astrop67sial
p6enomenon, somet6in) t6at nobod7 6as t6o8)6t o& 7et, b7 (6i6 not i'iliIations, b8t stars or
)as lo8ds =or somet6in)< t6at do lie in t6e plane o& t6e 5ilk7 *a7 emit stron) si)nals in
ba&&lin)l7 narro( &reK8en7 bands$
.etAs permit o8rsel'es, t6o8)6, a moment o& eCtra'a)ant spe8lation$ .etAs ima)ine t6at all
o8r s8r'i'in) e'ents are in &at d8e to radio beaons o& ot6er i'iliIations$ 36en (e an estimate
G&rom 6o( little time (eA'e spent (at6in) ea6 piee o& sk7G6o( man7 s86 transmitters
t6ere are in t6e entire 5ilk7 *a7$ 36e ans(er is somet6in) approa6in) a million$ I& randoml7
stre(n t6ro8)6 spae, t6e nearest o& t6em (o8ld be a &e( 68ndred li)6t 7ears a(a7, too &ar &or
t6em to 6a'e piked 8p o8r o(n 3# or radar si)nals 7et$ 36e7 (o8ld not kno( &or anot6er &e(
ent8ries t6at a te6nial i'iliIation 6as emer)ed on Eart6$ 36e /alaC7 (o8ld be p8lsin) (it6
li&e and intelli)ene, b8tG8nless t6e7Are b8sil7 eCplorin) 68)e n8mbers o& obs8re star s7stems
G(6oll7 obli'io8s o& (6at 6as been 6appenin) do(n 6ere latel7$ , &e( ent8ries &rom no(,
a&ter t6e7 do 6ear &rom 8s, t6in)s mi)6t )et 'er7 interestin)$ %ort8natel7, (eAd 6a'e man7
)enerations to prepare$
I&, on t6e ot6er 6and, none o& o8r andidate si)nals is an a8t6enti alien radio beaon, t6en
(eAre &ored to t6e onl8sion t6at 'er7 &e( i'iliIations are broadastin), ma7be none, at least
at o8r ma)i &reK8enies and stron)l7 eno8)6 &or 8s to 6ear:
+onsider a i'iliIation like o8r o(n, b8t (6i6 dediated all its a'ailable po(er =abo8t 10
trillion (atts< to broadastin) a beaon si)nal at one o& o8r ma)i &reK8enies and to all
diretions in spae$ 36e 5E3, res8lts (o8ld t6en impl7 t6at t6ere are no s86 i'iliIations o8t
to "5 li)6t-7earsGa 'ol8me t6at enompasses per6aps a doIen S8n-like stars$ 36is is not a 'er7
strin)ent limit$ I&, in ontrast, t6at i'iliIation (ere broadastin) diretl7 at o8r position in
spae, 8sin) an antenna no more ad'aned t6an t6e ,reibo 2bser'ator7, t6en i& 5E3, 6as
&o8nd not6in), it &ollo(s t6at t6ere are no s86 i'iliIations an7(6ere in t6e 5ilk7 *a7 /alaC7
Go8t o& 400 billion stars, not one$ B8t e'en ass8min) t6e7 (o8ld (ant to, 6o( (o8ld t6e7
kno( to transmit in o8r diretionD
No( onsider, at t6e opposite te6nolo)ial eCtreme, a 'er7 ad'aned i'iliIation
omnidiretionall7 and eCtra'a)antl7 broadastin) at a po(er le'el 10 trillion times )reater =10"6
(atts, t6e entire ener)7 o8tp8t o& a star like t6e S8n<$ 36en, i& t6e 5E3, res8lts are ne)ati'e, (e
an onl8de not onl7 t6at t6ere are no s86 i'iliIations in t6e 5ilk7 *a7, b8t none o8t to 70
million li)6t-7earsGnone in 531, t6e nearest )alaC7 like o8r o(n, none in 533, or t6e %ornaC
s7stem, or 5;1, or t6e *6irlpool Neb8la, or +enta8r8s ,, or t6e #ir)o l8ster o& )alaCies, or t6e
nearest Se7&ert )alaCies? none amon) an7 o& t6e 68ndred trillion stars in t6o8sands o& nearb7
)alaCies$ Stake t6ro8)6 its 6eart or not, t6e )eoentri oneit stirs a)ain$
2& o8rse, it mi)6t be a token not o& intelli)ene b8t o& st8pidit7 to po8r so m86 ener)7
into interstellar =and inter)alati< omm8niation$ 0er6aps t6e7 6a'e )ood reasons not to 6ail
all omers$ 2r per6aps t6e7 donAt are abo8t i'iliIations as bak(ard as (e are$ B8t stillGnot
one i'iliIation in a 68ndred trillion stars broadastin) (it6 s86 po(er on s86 a &reK8en7D I&
174
t6e 5E3, res8lts are ne)ati'e, (e 6a'e set an instr8ti'e limitGb8t (6et6er on t6e ab8ndane
o& 'er7 ad'aned i'iliIations or t6eir omm8niations strate)7 (e 6a'e no (a7 o& kno(in)$
E'en i& 5E3, 6as &o8nd not6in), a broad middle ran)e remains openGo& ab8ndant
i'iliIations, more ad'aned t6an (e and broadastin) omnidiretionall7 at ma)i &reK8enies$
*e (o8ld not 6a'e 6eard &rom t6em 7et$
ON OCTOBER !, **!a8spiio8sl7 or ot6er(ise t6e 500t6 anni'ersar7 o& t6e Bdiso'er7B o&
,meria b7 +6ristop6er +ol8mb8sGN,S, t8rned on i" ne( SE3I pro)ram$ ,t a radio
telesope in t6e 5oHa'e !esert, a sear6 (as initiated intended to o'er t6e entire sk7
s7stematiall7Glike 5E3,, makin) no )8esses abo8t (6i6 stars are more likel7, b8t )reatl7
eCpandin) t6e &reK8en7 o'era)e$ ,t t6e ,reibo 2bser'ator7, an e'en more sensiti'e N,S,
st8d7 be)an t6at onentrated on promisin) nearb7 star s7stems$ *6en &8ll7 operational, t6e
N,S, sear6es (o8ld 6a'e been able to detet m86 &ainter si)nals t6an 5E3,, and look &or
kinds o& si)nals t6at 5E3, o8ld not$
36e 5E3, eCperiene re'eals a t6iket o& bak)ro8nd stati and radio inter&erene$
T8ik reobser'ation and on&irmation o& t6e si)nalGspeiall7 at ot6er, independent radio
telesopesGis t6e ke7 to bein) s8re$ 4oro(itI and I )a'e N,S, sientists t6e oordinates o&
o8r &leetin) and eni)mati e'ents$ 0er6aps t6e7 (o8ld be able to on&irm and lari&7 o8r
res8lts$ 36e N,S, pro)ram (as also de'elopin) ne( te6nolo)7, stim8latin) ideas, and
eCitin) s6ool6ildren$ In t6e e7es o& man7 it (as (ell (ort6 t6e Y10 million a 7ear bein)
spent on it$ B8t almost eCatl7 a 7ear a&ter a8t6oriIin) it, +on)ress p8lled t6e pl8) on N,S,As
SE3I pro)ram$ It ost too m86, t6e7 said$ 36e post-+old *ar 1$S$ de&ense b8d)et is some
30,000 times lar)er$
36e 6ie& ar)8ment o& t6e prinipal opponent o& t6e N,S, SE3I pro)ramGSenator
-i6ard Br7an o& Ne'adaG(as t6is Q&rom t6e #ongreional -e7or) &or September "", 1993R:
So &ar, t6e N,S, SE3I 0ro)ram 6as &o8nd not6in)$ In &at, all t6e deades o& SE3I
resear6 6a'e &o8nd no on&irmable si)ns o& eCtraterrestrial li&e$
E'en (it6 t6e 8rrent N,S, 'ersion o& SE3I, I do not t6ink man7 o& its sientists
(o8ld be (illin) to )8arantee t6at (e are likel7 to see an7 tan)ible res8lts in t6e
Q&oreseeableR &8t8re $ $ $
Sienti&i resear6 rarel7, i& e'er, o&&ers )8arantees o& s8essGand I 8nderstand t6at
Gand t6e &8ll bene&its o& s86 resear6 are o&ten 8nkno(n 8ntil 'er7 late in t6e proess$
,nd I aept t6at, as (ell$
In t6e ase o& SE3I, 6o(e'er, t6e 6anes o& s8ess are so remote, and t6e likel7
bene&its o& t6e pro)ram are so limited, t6at t6ere is little H8sti&iation &or 1" million
taCpa7er dollars to be eCpended &or t6is pro)ram$
B8t 6o(, be&ore (e 6a'e &o8nd eCtraterrestrial intelli)ene, an (e B)8aranteeB t6at (e (ill
&ind itD 4o(, on t6e ot6er 6and, an (e kno( t6at t6e 6anes o& s8ess are BremoteBD ,nd i&
175
(e &ind eCtraterrestrial intelli)ene, are t6e bene&its reall7 likel7 to be Bso limitedBD ,s in all
)reat eCplorator7 'ent8res, (e do not kno( (6at (e (ill &ind and (e donAt kno( t6e probabilit7
o& &indin) it$ I& (e did, (e (o8ld not 6a'e to look$
SE3I is one o& t6ose sear6 pro)rams irritatin) to t6ose (6o (ant (ell-de&ined ostNbene&it
ratios$ *6et6er E3I an be &o8nd? 6o( lon) it (o8ld take to &ind it? and (6at it (o8ld ost to do
so are all 8nkno(n$ 36e bene&its mi)6t be enormo8s, b8t (e anAt reall7 be s8re o& t6at eit6er$ It
(o8ld o& o8rse be &oolis6 to spend a maHor &ration o& t6e national treas8re on s86 'ent8res,
b8t I (onder i& i'iliIations annot be alibrated b7 (6et6er t6e7 pa7 ome attention to tr7in) to
sol'e t6e )reat problems$
!espite t6ese setbaks, a dediated band o& sientists and en)ineers, entered at t6e SE3I
Instit8te in 0alo ,lto, +ali&ornia, 6as deided to )o a6ead, )o'ernment or no )o'ernment$ N,S,
6as )i'en t6em permission to 8se t6e eK8ipment alread7 paid &or? aptains o& t6e eletronis
ind8str7 6a'e donated a &e( million dollars? at least one appropriate radio telesope is a'ailable?
and t6e initial sta)es o& t6is )randest o& all SE3I pro)rams is on trak$ I& it an demonstrate t6at
a 8se&8l sk7 s8r'e7 is possible (it6o8t bein) s(amped b7 bak)ro8nd noiseGand espeiall7 i&,
as is 'er7 likel7 &rom t6e 5E3, eCperiene, t6ere are 8neCplained andidate si)nals-per6aps
+on)ress (ill 6an)e its mind one more and &8nd t6e proHet$
5ean(6ile, 0a8l 4oro(itI 6as ome 8p (it6 a ne( pro)ramGdi&&erent &rom 5E3,,
di&&erent &rom (6at N,S, (as doin)Galled BE3,$ BE3, stands &or BBillion-6annel
ECtra3errestrial ,ssa7$B It ombines narro(-band sensiti'it7, (ide &reK8en7 o'era)e, and a
le'er (a7 to 'eri&7 si)nals as t6e7Are deteted$ I& 36e 0lanetar7 Soiet7 an &ind t6e additional
s8pport, t6is s7stemGm86 6eaper t6an t6e &ormer N,S, pro)ramGs6o8ld be on t6e air soon$
WOULD I LIKE TO BELIEVE t6at (it6 5E3, (eA'e deteted transmissions &rom ot6er
i'iliIations o8t t6ere in t6e dark, sprinkled t6ro8)6 t6e 'ast 5ilk7 *a7 /alaC7D :o8 bet$ ,&ter
deades o& (onderin) and st8d7in) t6is problem, o& o8rse I (o8ld$ 3o me, s86 a diso'er7
(o8ld be t6rillin)$ It (o8ld 6an)e e'er7t6in)$ *e (o8ld be 6earin) &rom ot6er bein)s,
independentl7 e'ol'ed o'er billions o& 7ears, 'ie(in) t6e 1ni'erse per6aps 'er7 di&&erentl7,
probabl7 m86 smarter, ertainl7 not 68man$ 4o( m86 do t6e7 kno( t6at (e donAtD
%or me, no si)nals, no one allin) o8t to 8s is a depressin) prospet$ B+omplete silene,B
said >ean->aK8es -o8ssea8 in a di&&erent onteCt, Bind8es melan6ol7? it is an ima)e o& deat6$B
B8t IAm (it6 4enr7 !a'id 36orea8: B*67 s6o8ld I &eel lonel7D Is not o8r planet in t6e 5ilk7
*a7DB
36e realiIation t6at s86 bein)s eCist and t6at, as t6e e'ol8tionar7 proess reK8ires, t6e7
m8st be 'er7 di&&erent &rom 8s, (o8ld 6a'e a strikin) impliation: *6ate'er di&&erenes di'ide
8s do(n 6ere on Eart6 are tri'ial ompared to t6e di&&erenes bet(een an7 o& 8s and an7 o& t6em$
5a7be itAs a lon) s6ot, b8t t6e diso'er7 o& eCtraterrestrial intelli)ene mi)6t pla7 a role in
8ni&7in) o8r sK8abblin) and di'ided planet$ It (o8ld be t6e last o& t6e /reat !emotions, a rite o&
passa)e &or o8r speies and a trans&ormin) e'ent in t6e anient K8est to diso'er o8r plae in t6e
1ni'erse$
176
In o8r &asination (it6 SE3I, (e mi)6t be tempted, e'en (it6o8t )ood e'idene, to
s88mb to belie& b8t t6is (o8ld be sel&-ind8l)ent and &oolis6$ *e m8st s8rrender o8r
skeptiism onl7 in t6e &ae o& rok-solid e'idene$ Siene demands a tolerane &or ambi)8it7$
*6ere (e are i)norant, (e (it66old belie&$ *6ate'er anno7ane t6e 8nertaint7 en)enders
ser'es a 6i)6er p8rpose: It dri'es 8s to a8m8late better data$ 36is attit8de is t6e di&&erene
bet(een siene and so m86 else$ Siene o&&ers little in t6e (a7 o& 6eap t6rills$ 36e standards
o& e'idene are strit$ B8t (6en &ollo(ed t6e7 allo( 8s to see &ar, ill8minatin) e'en a )reat
darkness$
177
+ 4 , 0 3 E - "1
TO THE SKY!
36e stairs o& t6e sk7 are let do(n &or 6im t6at 6e ma7 asend t6ereon to
6ea'en$ 2 )ods, p8t 7o8r arms 8nder t6e kin): raise 6im, li&t 6im to t6e sk7$
3o t6e sk7F 3o t6e sk7F

G4:5N %2- , !E,! 04,-,24 =E/:03, +,$ "600 B$+$<
W6en m7 )randparents (ere 6ildren, t6e eletri li)6t, t6e a8tomobile, t6e airplane, and t6e
radio (ere St8pe&7in) te6nolo)ial ad'anes, t6e (onders o& t6e a)e$ :o8 mi)6t 6ear (ild
stories abo8t t6em, b8t 7o8 o8ld not &ind a sin)le eCemplar in t6at little 'illa)e in ,8stria-
48n)ar7, near t6e banks o& t6e ri'er B8)$ B8t in t6at same time, aro8nd t6e t8rn o& t6e last
ent8r7, t6ere (ere t(o men (6o &oresa( ot6er, &ar more ambitio8s, in'entionsGEonstantin
3siolko'sk7, t6e t6eoretiian, a nearl7 dea& s6ooltea6er in t6e obs8re -8ssian to(n o&
Eal8)a, and -obert /oddard, t6e en)ineer, a pro&essor at an eK8all7 obs8re ,merian olle)e
in 5assa68setts$ 36e7 dreamt o& 8sin) rokets to Ho8rne7 to t6e planets and t6e stars$ Step b7
step, t6e7 (orked o8t t6e &8ndamental p67sis and man7 o& t6e details$ /rad8all7, t6eir
ma6ines took s6ape$ 1ltimatel7, t6eir dream pro'ed in&etio8s$
In t6eir time, t6e 'er7 idea (as onsidered disrep8table, or e'en a s7mptom o& some obs8re
deran)ement$ /oddard &o8nd t6at merel7 mentionin) a 'o7a)e to ot6er (orlds s8bHeted 6im to
17;
ridi8le, and 6e dared not p8blis6 or e'en dis8ss in p8bli 6is lon)-term 'ision o& &li)6ts to t6e
stars$ ,s teena)ers, bot6 6ad epip6anal 'isions o& spae&li)6t t6at ne'er le&t t6em$ BI still 6a'e
dreams in (6i6 I &l7 8p to t6e stars in m7 ma6ine,B 3siolko'sk7 (rote in middle a)e$ BIt is
di&&i8lt to (ork all on 7o8r o(n &or man7 7ears, in ad'erse onditions (it6o8t a )leam o& 6ope,
(it6o8t an7 6elp$B 5an7 o& 6is ontemporaries t6o8)6t 6e (as tr8l7 mad$ 36ose (6o kne(
p67sis better t6an 3siolko'sk7 and /oddardGinl8din) /(e 0e< ,ork /ime in a dismissi'e
editorial not retrated 8ntil t6e e'e o& Apollo 11Ginsisted t6at rokets o8ld not (ork in a
'a88m, t6at t6e 5oon and t6e planets (ere &ore'er be7ond 68man rea6$
, )eneration later, inspired b7 3siolko'sk7 and /oddard, *ern6er 'on Bra8n (as
onstr8tin) t6e &irst roket apable o& rea6in) t6e ed)e o& spae, t6e #-"$ B8t in one o& t6ose
ironies (it6 (6i6 t6e t(entiet6 ent8r7 is replete, 'on Bra8n (as b8ildin) it &or t6e NaIisGas
an instr8ment o& indisriminate sla8)6ter o& i'ilians, as a B'en)eane (eaponB &or 4itler, t6e
roket &atories sta&&ed (it6 sla'e labor, 8ntold 68man s8&&erin) eCated in t6e onstr8tion o&
e'er7 booster, and 'on Bra8n 6imsel& made an o&&ier in t6e SS$ 4e (as aimin) at t6e 5oon, 6e
Hoked 8nsel&onsio8sl7, b8t 6it .ondon instead$
,not6er )eneration later, b8ildin) on t6e (ork o& 3siolko'sk7 and /oddard, eCtendin) 'on
Bra8nAs te6nolo)ial )eni8s, (e (ere 8p t6ere in spae, silentl7 ir8mna'i)atin) t6e Eart6,
treadin) t6e anient and desolate l8nar s8r&ae$ 28r ma6inesGinreasin)l7 ompetent and
a8tonomo8sG(ere spreadin) t6ro8)6 t6e Solar S7stem, diso'erin) ne( (orlds, eCaminin)
t6em losel7, sear6in) &or li&e, omparin) t6em (it6 Eart6$
36is is one reason t6at in t6e lon) astronomial perspeti'e t6ere is somet6in) tr8l7 epo6al
abo8t Bno(BG(6i6 (e an de&ine as t6e &e( ent8ries entered on t6e 7ear 7o8Are readin) t6is
book$ ,nd t6ereAs a seond reason: 36is is t6e &irst moment in t6e 6istor7 o& o8r planet (6en an7
speies, b7 its o(n 'ol8ntar7 ations, 6as beome a dan)er to itsel&Gas (ell as to 'ast n8mbers
o& ot6ers$ .et me reo8nt t6e (a7s:
Z *eA'e been b8rnin) &ossil &8els &or 68ndreds o& t6o8sands o& 7ears$ B7 t6e 1960s, t6ere
(ere so man7 o& 8s b8rnin) (ood, oal, oil, and nat8ral )as on so lar)e a sale, t6at
sientists be)an to (orr7 abo8t t6e inreasin) )reen6o8se e&&et? t6e dan)ers o& )lobal
(armin) be)an slo(l7 slippin) into p8bli onsio8sness$
Z +%+s (ere in'ented in t6e 19"0s and 1930s? in 1974 t6e7 (ere diso'ered to attak t6e
proteti'e oIone la7er$ %i&teen 7ears later a (orld(ide ban on t6eir prod8tion (as )oin)
into e&&et$
Z N8lear (eapons (ere in'ented in 1945$ It took 8ntil 19;3 be&ore t6e )lobal
onseK8enes o& t6ermon8lear (ar (ere 8nderstood$ B7 199", lar)e n8mbers o&
(ar6eads (ere bein) dismantled$
Z 36e &irst asteroid (as diso'ered in 1;01$ 5ore or less serio8s proposals to mo'e t6em
aro8nd (ere &loated be)innin) in t6e 19;0s$ -eo)nition o& t6e potential dan)ers o&
asteroid de&letion te6nolo)7 &ollo(ed s6ortl7 a&ter$
Z Biolo)ial (ar&are 6as been (it6 8s &or ent8ries, b8t its deadl7 matin) (it6 mole8lar
biolo)7 6as o8rred onl7 latel7$
179
Z *e 68mans 6a'e alread7 preipitated eCtintions o& speies on a sale 8npreedented
sine t6e end o& t6e +retaeo8s 0eriod$ B8t onl7 in t6e last deade 6as t6e ma)nit8de o&
t6ese eCtintions beome lear, and t6e possibilit7 raised t6at in o8r i)norane o& t6e
interrelations o& li&e on Eart6 (e ma7 be endan)erin) o8r o(n &8t8re$
.ook at t6e dates on t6is list and onsider t6e ran)e o& ne( te6nolo)ies 8rrentl7 8nder
de'elopment$ Is it not likel7 t6at ot6er dan)ers o& o8r o(n makin) are 7et to be diso'ered,
some per6aps e'en more serio8sD
In t6e littered &ield o& disredited sel&-on)rat8lator7 6a8'inisms, t6ere is onl7 one t6at
seems to 6old 8p, one sense in (6i6 (e are speial: !8e to o8r o(n ations or inations, and
t6e mis8se o& o8r te6nolo)7, (e li'e at an eCtraordinar7 moment, &or t6e Eart6 at leastGt6e
&irst time t6at a speies 6as beome able to (ipe itsel& o8t$ B8t t6is is also, (e ma7 note, t6e &irst
time t6at a speies 6as beome able to Ho8rne7 to t6e planets and t6e stars$ 36e t(o times,
bro8)6t abo8t b7 t6e same te6nolo)7, oinideGa &e( ent8ries in t6e 6istor7 o& a 4$5-billion-
7ear-old planet$ I& 7o8 (ere some6o( dropped do(n on t6e Eart6 randoml7 at an7 moment in
t6e past =or &8t8re<, t6e 6ane o& arri'in) at t6is ritial moment (o8ld be less t6an 1 in 10
million$ 28r le'era)e on t6e &8t8re is 6i)6 H8st no($
It mi)6t be a &amiliar pro)ression, transpirin) on man7 (orldsGa planet, ne(l7
&ormed, plaidl7 re'ol'es aro8nd its star? li&e slo(l7 &orms? a kaleidosopi proession o&
reat8res e'ol'es? intelli)ene emer)es (6i6, at least 8p to a point, on&ers enormo8s s8r'i'al
'al8e? and t6en te6nolo)7 is in'ented$ It da(ns on t6em t6at t6ere are s86 t6in)s as la(s o&
Nat8re, t6at t6ese la(s an be re'ealed b7 eCperiment, and t6at kno(led)e o& t6ese la(s an be
made bot6 to sa'e and to take li'es, bot6 on 8npreedented sales$ Siene, t6e7 reo)niIe,
)rants immense po(ers$ In a &las6, t6e7 reate (orld-alterin) ontri'anes$ Some planetar7
i'iliIations see t6eir (a7 t6ro8)6, plae limits on (6at ma7 and (6at m8st not be done, and
sa&el7 pass t6ro8)6 t6e time o& perils$ 2t6ers are not so l8k7 or so pr8dent, peris6$
Sine, in t6e lon) r8n, e'er7 planetar7 soiet7 (ill be endan)ered b7 impats &rom spae,
e'er7 s8r'i'in) i'iliIation is obli)ed to beome spae&arin)G-not bea8se o& eCplorator7 or
romanti Ieal, b8t &or t6e most pratial reason ima)inable: sta7in) ali'e$ ,nd one 7o8Are o8t
t6ere in spae &or ent8ries and millennia, mo'in) little (orlds aro8nd and en)ineerin) planets,
7o8r speies 6as been pried loose &rom its radle$ I& t6e7 eCist, man7 ot6er i'iliIations (ill
e'ent8all7 'ent8re &ar &rom 6ome$
1
1
5i)6t a planetar7 i'iliIation (6i6 6as s8r'i'ed its adolesene (is6 to eno8ra)e ot6ers str8))lin) (it6 "(eir emer)in)
te6nolo)iesD 0er6aps t6e7 (o8ld make speial e&&orts to broadast ne(s o& t6eir eCistene, t6e tri8mp6ant anno8nement t6at itAs
possible to a'oid sel&-anni6ilation$ 2r (o8ld t6e7 at &irst be 'er7 a8tio8sD 4a'in) a'oided atastrop6es o& t6eir o(n makin),
per6aps t6e7 (o8ld &ear )i'in) a(a7 kno(led)e o& t6eir eCistene, lest some ot6er, 8nkno(n, a))randiIin) i'iliIation o8t t6ere in
t6e dark is lookin) &or &e;enraum or sla'erin) to p8t do(n t6e potential ompetition$ 36at mi)6t be a reason &or 8s to eCplore
nei)6borin) star s7stems, b8t disreetl7$
5a7be t6e7 (o8ld be silent &or anot6er reason: bea8se broadastin) t6e eCistene o& an ad'aned i'iliIation mi)6t eno8ra)e
emer)in) i'iliIations to do less t6an t6eir best e&&orts to sa&e)8ard t6eir &8t8reG 6opin) instead t6at someone (ill ome o8t o& t6e
dark and sa'e t6em &rom t6emsel'es$
1;0
A MEANS HAS BEEN OFFERED o& estimatin) 6o( preario8s o8r ir8mstanes areG
remarkabl7, (it6o8t in an7 (a7 addressin) t6e nat8re o& t6e 6aIards$ >$ -i6ard /ott III is an
astrop67siist at 0rineton 1ni'ersit7$ 4e asks 8s to adopt a )eneraliIed +opernian priniple,
somet6in) IA'e desribed else(6ere as t6e 0riniple o& 5ediorit7$ +6anes are t6at (e do not
li'e in a tr8l7 eCtraordinar7 time$ 4ardl7 an7one e'er did$ 36e probabilit7 is 6i)6 t6at (eAre
born, li'e o8t o8r da7s, and die some(6ere in t6e broad middle ran)e o& t6e li&etime o& o8r
speies =or i'iliIation, or nation<$ ,lmost ertainl7, /ott sa7s, (e do not li'e in &irst or last
times$ So i& 7o8r speies is 'er7 7o8n), it &ollo(s t6at itAs 8nlikel7 to last lon)Gbea8se i& it
<ere to last lon), 7o8 =and t6e rest o& 8s ali'e toda7< <oul) be eCtraordinar7 in li'in),
proportionall7 speakin), so near t6e be)innin)$
*6at t6en is t6e proHeted lon)e'it7 o& o8r speiesD /ott onl8des, at t6e 97$5 perent
on&idene le'el, t6at t6ere (ill be 68mans &or no more t6an ; million 7ears$ 36atAs 6is 8pper
limit, abo8t t6e same as t6e a'era)e li&etime o& man7 mammalian speies$ In t6at ase, o8r
te6nolo)7 neit6er 6arms nor 6elps$ B8t /ottAs lo(er limit, (it6 t6e same laimed reliabilit7, is
onl7 1" 7ears$ 4e (ill not )i'e 7o8 40-to-1 odds t6at 68mans (ill still be aro8nd b7 t6e time
babies no( ali'e beome teena)ers$ In e'er7da7 li&e (e tr7 'er7 6ard not to take risks so lar)e,
not to board airplanes, sa7, (it6 1 6ane in 40 o& ras6in)$ *e (ill a)ree to s8r)er7 in (6i6 95
perent o& patients s8r'i'e onl7 i& o8r disease 6as a )reater t6an 5 perent 6ane o& killin) 8s$
5ere 40-to-1 odds on o8r speies s8r'i'in) anot6er 1" 7ears *o8ld be, i& 'alid, a a8se &or
s8preme onern$ I& /ott is ri)6t, not onl7 ma7 (e ne'er be o8t amon) t6e stars? t6ereAs a &air
6ane (e ma7 not be aro8nd lon) eno8)6 e'en to make t6e &irst &oot&all on anot6er planet$
3o me, t6is ar)8ment 6as a stran)e, 'aporis6 K8alit7$ Eno(in) not6in) abo8t o8r speies
eCept 6o( old it is, (e make n8merial estimates, laimed to be 6i)6l7 reliable, abo8t its &8t8re
prospets$ 4o(D *e )o (it6 t6e (inners$ 36ose (6o 6a'e been aro8nd are likel7 to sta7 aro8nd$
Ne(omers tend to disappear$ 36e onl7 ass8mption is t6e K8ite pla8sible one t6at t6ere is
not6in) speial abo8t t6e moment at (6i6 (e inK8ire into t6e matter$ So (67 is t6e ar)8ment
8nsatis&7in)D Is it H8st t6at (e are appalled b7 its impliationsD
Somet6in) like t6e 0riniple o& 5ediorit7 m8st 6a'e 'er7 broad appliabilit7$ B8t (e are
not so i)norant as to ima)ine t6at e'er7t6in) is mediore$ 36ere is somet6in) speial abo8t o8r
timeGnot H8st t6e temporal 6a8'inism t6at t6ose (6o reside in an7 epo6 do8btless &eel, b8t
somet6in), as o8tlined abo'e, learl7 8niK8e and stritl7 rele'ant to o8r speiesA &8t8re 6anes:
36is is t6e &irst time t6at =a< o8r eCponentiatin) te6nolo)7 6as rea6ed t6e preipie o& sel&-
destr8tion, b8t also t6e &irst time t6at =b< (e an postpone or a'oid destr8tion b7 )oin)
some(6ere else, some(6ere o&& t6e Eart6$
36ese t(o l8sters o& apabilities, =a< and =b<, make o8r time eCtraordinar7 in diretl7
ontraditor7 (a7sG(6i6 bot6 =a< stren)t6en and =b< (eaken /ottAs ar)8ment$ I donAt kno(
6o( to predit (6et6er t6e ne( destr8ti'e te6nolo)ies (ill 6asten, more t6an t6e ne(
spae&li)6t te6nolo)ies (ill dela7, 68man eCtintion$ B8t sine ne'er be&ore 6a'e (e ontri'ed
t6e means o& anni6ilatin) o8rsel'es, and ne'er be&ore 6a'e ( e de'eloped t6e te6nolo)7 &or
settlin) ot6er (orlds, I t6ink a ompellin) ase an be made t6at o8r time is eCtraordinar7
preisel7 in t6e onteCt o& /ottAs ar)8ment$ I& t6is is tr8e, it si)ni&iantl7 inreases t6e mar)in o&
1;1
error in s86 estimates o& &8t8re lon)e'it7$ 36e (orst is (orse, and t6e best better: 28r s6ort-
term prospets are e'en bleaker andGi& (e an s8r'i'e t6e s6ort-termGo8r lon)-term 6anes
e'en bri)6ter t6an /ott al8lates$
B8t t6e &ormer is no more a8se &or despair t6an t6e latter is &or omplaen7$ Not6in)
&ores 8s to be passi'e obser'ers, l8kin) in disma7 as o8r destin7 ineCorabl7 (orks itsel& o8t$
I& (e annot K8ite seiIe &ate b7 t6e nek, per6aps (e an misdiret it, or molli&7 it, or esape it$
2& o8rse (e m8st keep o8r planet 6abitableGnot on a leis8rel7 timesale o& ent8ries or
millennia, b8t 8r)entl7, on a timesale o& deades or e'en 7ears$ 36is (ill in'ol'e 6an)es in
)o'ernment, in ind8str7, in et6is, in eonomis, and in reli)ion$ *eA'e ne'er done s86 a t6in)
be&ore, ertainl7 not on a )lobal sale$ It ma7 be too di&&i8lt &or 8s$ !an)ero8s te6nolo)ies ma7
be too (idespread$ +orr8ption ma7 be too per'asi'e$ 3oo man7 leaders ma7 be &o8sed on t6e
s6ort term rat6er t6an t6e lon)$ 36ere ma7 be too man7 K8arrelin) et6ni )ro8ps, nation-states,
and ideolo)ies &or t6e ri)6t kind o& )lobal 6an)e to be instit8ted$ *e ma7 be too &oolis6 to
perei'e e'en (6at t6e real dan)ers are, or t6at m86 o& (6at (e 6ear abo8t t6em is determined
b7 t6ose (it6 a 'ested interest in minimiIin) &8ndamental 6an)e$
4o(e'er, (e 68mans also 6a'e a 6istor7 o& makin) lon)-lastin) soial 6an)e t6at nearl7
e'er7one t6o8)6t impossible$ Sine o8r earliest da7s, (eA'e (orked not H8st &or o8r o(n
ad'anta)e b8t &or o8r 6ildren and o8r )rand6ildren$ 57 )randparents and parents did so &or
me$ *e 6a'e o&ten, despite o8r di'ersit7, despite endemi 6atreds, p8lled to)et6er to &ae a
ommon enem7$ *e seem, t6ese da7s, m86 more (illin) to reo)niIe t6e dan)ers be&ore 8s
t6an (e (ere e'en a deade a)o$ 36e ne(l7 reo)niIed dan)ers t6reaten all o& 8s eK8all7$ No
one an sa7 6o( it (ill t8rn o8t do(n 6ere$
THE MOON WAS WHERE t6e tree o& immortalit7 )re( in anient +6inese m7t6$ 36e tree o&
lon)e'it7 i& not o& immortalit7, it seems, indeed )ro(s on ot6er (orlds$ I& (e (ere 8p t6ere
amon) t6e planets, i& t6ere (ere sel&-s8&&iient 68man omm8nities oil man7 (orlds, o8r speies
(o8ld be ins8lated &rom atastrop6e$ 36e depletion o& t6e 8ltra'iolet-absorbin) s6ield on one
(orld (o8ld, i& an7t6in), be a (arnin) to take speial are o& t6e s6ield on anot6er$ ,
atal7smi impat on one (orld (o8ld likel7 lea'e all t6e ot6ers 8nto86ed$ 36e more o& 8s
be7ond t6e Eart6, t6e )reater t6e di'ersit7 o& (orlds (e in6abit, t6e more 'aried t6e planetar7
en)ineerin), t6e )reater t6e ran)e o& soietal standards and 'al8esGt6en t6e sa&er t6e 68man
speies (ill be$
I& 7o8 )ro( 8p li'in) 8nder)ro8nd in a (orld (it6 a 68ndredt6 o& an Eart6 )ra'it7 and
blak skies t6ro8)6 t6e portals, 7o8 6a'e a 'er7 di&&erent set o& pereptions, interests, preH8dies,
and predispositions t6an someone (6o li'es on t6e s8r&ae o& t6e 6ome planet$ .ike(ise i& 7o8
li'e on t6e s8r&ae o& 5ars in t6e t6roes o& terra&ormin), or #en8s, or 3itan$ 36is strate)7G
breakin) 8p into man7 smaller sel&-propa)atin) )ro8ps, ea6 (it6 some(6at di&&erent stren)t6s
and onerns, b8t all marked b7 loal prideG6as been (idel7 emplo7ed in t6e e'ol8tion o& li&e
on Eart6, and b7 o8r o(n anestors in parti8lar$ It ma7, in &at, be ke7 to 8nderstandin) (67 (e
1;"
68mans are t6e (a7 (e are$
1
36is is t6e seond o& t6e missin) H8sti&iations &or a permanent
68man presene in spae: to impro'e o8r 6anes o& s8r'i'in), not H8st t6e atastrop6es (e an
&oresee, b8t also t6e ones (e annot$ /ott also ar)8es t6at establis6in) 68man omm8nities on
ot6er (orlds ma7 o&&er 8s o8r best 6ane o& beatin) t6e odds$
3o take o8t t6is ins8rane poli7 is not 'er7 eCpensi'e, not on t6e sale on (6i6 (e do
t6in)s on Eart6$ It (o8ld not e'en reK8ire do8blin) t6e spae b8d)ets o& t6e present spae&arin)
nations =(6i6, in all ases, are onl7 a small &ration o& t6e militar7 b8d)ets and man7 ot6er
'ol8ntar7 eCpendit8res t6at mi)6t be onsidered mar)inal or e'en &ri'olo8s<$ *e o8ld soon be
settin) 68mans do(n on near-Eart6 asteroids and establis6in) bases on 5ars$ *e kno( 6o( to
do it, e'en (it6 present te6nolo)7, in less t6an a 68man li&etime$ ,nd t6e te6nolo)ies (ill
K8ikl7 impro'e$ *e (ill )et better at )oin) into spae$
, serio8s e&&ort to send 68mans to ot6er (orlds is relati'el7 so ineCpensi'e on a per annum
basis t6at it annot serio8sl7 ompete (it6 8r)ent soial a)endas on Eart6$ I& (e take t6is pat6,
streams o& ima)es &rom ot6er (orlds (ill be po8rin) do(n on Eart6 at t6e speed o& li)6t$ #irt8al
realit7 (ill make t6e ad'ent8re aessible to millions o& sta7-on-Eart6s$ #iario8s partiipation
(ill be m86 more real t6an at an7 earlier a)e o& eCploration and diso'er7$ ,nd t6e more
8lt8res and people it inspires and eCites, t6e more likel7 it (ill 6appen$
B8t b7 (6at ri)6t, (e mi)6t ask o8rsel'es, do (e in6abit, alter, and onK8er ot6er (orldsD
I& an7one else (ere li'in) in t6e Solar S7stem, t6is (o8ld be an important K8estion$ I&, t6o8)6,
t6ereAs no one else in t6is s7stem b8t 8s, donAt (e 6a'e a ri)6t to settle itD
2& o8rse, o8r eCploration and 6omesteadin) s6o8ld be enli)6tened b7 a respet &or
planetar7 en'ironments and t6e sienti&i kno(led)e t6e7 6old$ 36is is simple pr8dene$ 2&
o8rse, eCploration and settlement o8)6t to be done eK8itabl7 and transnationall7, b7
representati'es o& t6e entire 68man speies$ 28r past olonial 6istor7 is not eno8ra)in) in t6ese
re)ards? b8t t6is time (e are not moti'ated b7 )old or spies or sla'es or a Ieal to on'ert t6e
6eat6en to t6e 2ne 3r8e %ait6, as (ere t6e E8ropean eCplorers o& t6e &i&teent6 and siCteent6
ent8ries$ Indeed, t6is is one o& t6e 6ie& reasons (eAre eCperienin) s86 intermittent pro)ress,
so man7 &its and starts in t6e manned spae pro)rams o& all nations$
!espite all t6e pro'inialisms I omplained abo8t earl7 in t6is book, 6ere I &ind m7sel& an
8napolo)eti 68man 6a8'inist$ I& t6ere (ere ot6er li&e in t6is solar s7stem, it (o8ld be in
imminent dan)er bea8se t6e 68mans are omin)$ In s86 a ase, I mi)6t e'en be pers8aded t6at
sa&e)8ardin) o8r speies b7 settlin) ertain ot6er (orlds is o&&set, in part at least, b7 t6e dan)er
(e (o8ld pose to e'er7bod7 else$ B8t as nearl7 as (e an tell, so &ar at least, t6ere is no ot6er
li&e in t6is s7stem, not one mirobe$ 36ereAs onl7 Eart6li&e$
In t6at ase, on be6al& o& Eart6li&e, I 8r)e t6at, (it6 &8ll kno(led)e o& o8r limitations, (e
'astl7 inrease o8r kno(led)e o& t6e Solar S7stem and t6en be)in to settle ot6er (orlds$
36ese are t6e missin) pratial ar)8ments: sa&e)8ardin) At6e Eart6 &rom ot6er(ise ine'itable
atastrop6i impats and 6ed)in) o8r bets on t6e man7 ot6er t6reats, kno(n and 8nkno(n, to t6e
en'ironment t6at s8stains 8s$ *it6o8t t6ese ar)8ments, a ompellin) ase &or sendin) 68mans to
1
+&$ S(a)o< o5 2orgo""en An7e"or= A Sear7( 5or :(o :e Are, b7 +arl Sa)an and ,nn !r87an =Ne( :ork: -andom 4o8se, 199"<$
1;3
5ars and else(6ere mi)6t be lakin)$ B8t (it6 t6emGand t6e b8ttressin) ar)8ments in'ol'in)
siene, ed8ation, perspeti'e, and 6opeGI t6ink a stron) ase an be made$ I& o8r lon)-term
s8r'i'al is at stake, (e 6a'e a basi responsibilit7 to o8r speies 'ent8re to ot6er (orlds$
Sailors on a bealmed sea, (e sense t6e stirrin) o& a breeIe$
C H A P T E R 22
3I032EIN/
34-21/4 34E
5I.E: *,:
I s(ear b7 t6e s6elters o& t6e stars =a mi)6t7 oat6, i& 7o8 b8t kne( it< $ $ $
G34E T1-A,N, S1-, 56 =734 +EN31-:<
2& o8rse, it is stran)e to in6abit t6e eart6 no lon)er,
1;4
3o )i'e 8p 8stoms one barel7 6ad time to learn $ $ $

G-,INE- 5,-I, -I.EE, B34E %I-S3 E.E/:B =19"3<
T6e prospet o& salin) 6ea'en, o& asendin) to t6e sk7, o& alterin) ot6er (orlds to s8it o8r
p8rposesGno matter 6o( (ell intentioned (e ma7 beGsets t6e (arnin) &la)s &l7in): *e
remember t6e 68man inlination to(ard o'er(eenin) pride? (e reall o8r &allibilit7 and
misH8d)ments (6en presented (it6 po(er&8l ne( te6nolo)ies$ *e reollet t6e stor7 o& t6e
3o(er o& Babel, a b8ildin) B(6ose top ma7 rea6 8nto 6ea'en,B and /odAs &ear $s6o8t o8r
speies, t6at no( Bnot6in) (ill be restrained &rom t6em (6i6 t6e7 6a'e ima)ined to do$B
*e ome 8pon 0salm 15, (6i6 stakes a di'ine laim to ot6er (orlds: BQ3R6e 6ea'ens are
t6e .ordAs, b8t t6e Eart6 lat6 6e )i'en to t6e 6ildren o& men$B 2r 0latoAs retellin) o& t6e /reek
analo)8e o& BabelGt6e tale o& 2t7s and Ep6ialtes$ 36e7 (ere mortals (6o Bdared to sale
6ea'en$B 36e )ods (ere &aed (it6 a 6oie$ S6o8ld t6e7 kill t6e 8pstart 68mans Band anni6ilate
Qt6eirR rae (it6 t68nderboltsBD 2n t6e one Band, Bt6is (o8ld be t6e end o& t6e sari&ies and
(ors6ip (6i6 mien o&&eredB t6e )ods and (6i6 )ods ra'ed$ BB8t, on t6e ot6er 6and, t6e )ods
o8ld not s8&&er Qs86R insolene to be 8nrestrained$AA
I&, in t6e lon) term, t6o8)6, (e 6a'e no alternati'e, i& o8r 6oie reall7 is man7 (orlds or
none, (e are in need o& ot6er sorts o& m7t6s o& eno8ra)ement$ 36e7 eCist$ 5an7 reli)ions, &rom
4ind8ism to /nosti +6ristianit7 to 5ormon dotrine, tea6 t6atGas impio8s as it ma7 so8ndG
it is t6e )oal o& 68mans to ;e7ome )ods$ 2r onsider a stor7 in t6e >e(is6 3alm8d le&t o8t o& t6e
Book o& /enesis$ =It is in do8bt&8l aord (it6 t6e ao8nt o& t6e apple, t6e 3ree o& Eno(led)e,
t6e %all, and t6e eCp8lsion &rom Eden$< In t6e /arden, /od tells E'e and ,dam t6at 4e 6as
intentionall7 le&t t6e 1ni'erse 8n&inis6ed$ It is t6e responsibilit7 o& 68mans, o'er o8ntless
)enerations, to partiipate (it6 /od in a B)lorio8sB eCperimentGB ompletin) t6e +reation$B
36e b8rden o& s86 a responsibilit7 is 6ea'7, espeiall7 on so (eak and imper&et a speies
as o8rs, one (it6 so 8n6app7 a 6istor7$ Not6in) remotel7 like BompletionB an be attempted
(it6o8t 'astl7 more kno(led)e t6an (e 6a'e toda7$ B8t per6aps, i& o8r 'er7 eCistene is at stake,
(e (ill &ind o8rsel'es ,ble to rise to t6is s8preme 6allen)e$
ALTHOUGH HE DID NOT K8ite 8se an7 o& t6e ar)8ments o& t6e preedin) 6apter, it (as -obert
/oddardAs int8ition t6at Bt6e na'i)ation o& interplanetar7 spae m8st be e&&eted to ens8re t6e
ontin8ane o& t6e rae$B Eonstantin 3siolko'sk7 made a similar H8d)ment:
36ere are o8ntless planets, like man7 island Eart6s $ $ $ 5an o8pies one o& t6em$ B8t
(67 o8ld 6e not a'ail 6imsel& o& ot6ers, and o& t6e mi)6t o& n8mberless s8nsD $ $ $ *6en
1;5
t6e S8n 6as eC6a8sted its ener)7, it (o8ld be lo)ial to lea'e it and look &or anot6er, ne(l7
kindled, star still in its prime$
36is mi)6t be done earlier, 6e s8))ested, lon) be&ore t6e S8n dies, Bb7 ad'ent8ro8s so8ls
seekin) &res6 (orlds to onK8er$B
B8t as I ret6ink t6is (6ole ar)8ment, IAm tro8bled$ Is it too m86 B8k -o)ersD !oes it
demand an abs8rd on&idene in &8t8re te6nolo)7D !oes it i)nore m7 o(n admonitions abo8t
68man &allibilit7D S8rel7 in t6e s6ort term itAs biased a)ainst te6nolo)iall7 less-de'eloped
nations$ ,re t6ere no pratial alternati'es t6at a'oid t6ese pit&allsD
,ll o8r sel&-in&lited en'ironmental problems, all o8r (eapons o& mass destr8tion are
prod8ts o& siene and te6nolo)7$ So, 7o8 mi)6t sa7, letAs H8st bak o&& &rom siene and
te6nolo)7$ .etAs admit t6at t6ese tools are simpl7 too 6ot to 6andle$ .etAs reate a simpler
soiet7, in (6i6 no matter 6o( areless or s6ort-si)6ted (e are, (eAre inapable o& alterin) t6e
en'ironment on a )lobal or e'en on a re)ional sale$ .etAs t6rottle bak to a minimal,
a)ri8lt8rall7 intensi'e te6nolo)7, (it6 strin)ent ontrols on ne( kno(led)e$ ,n a8t6oritarian
t6eora7 is a tried-and-tr8e (a7 to en&ore t6e ontrols$
S86 a (orld 8lt8re is 8nstable, t6o8)6, in t6e lon) r8n i& not t6e s6ortGbea8se o& t6e
speed o& te6nolo)ial ad'ane$ 48man propensities &or sel&-betterment, en'7, and ompetition
(ill al(a7s be t6robbin) s8bs8r&ae? opport8nities &or s6ort-term, loal ad'anta)e (ill sooner or
later be seiIed$ 1nless t6ere are se'ere onstraints on t6o8)6t and ation, in a &las6 (eAll be bak
to (6ere (e are toda7$ So ontrolled a soiet7 m8st )rant )reat po(ers to t6e elite t6at does t6e
ontrollin), in'itin) &la)rant ab8se and e'ent8al rebellion$ ItAs 'er7 6ardGone (eA'e seen t6e
ri6es, on'enienes, and li&esa'in) mediines t6at te6nolo)7 o&&ersGto sK8el6 68man
in'enti'eness and aK8isiti'eness$ ,nd (6ile s86 a de'ol8tion o& t6e )lobal i'iliIation, (ere it
possible, mi)6t onei'abl7 address t6e problem o& sel&-in&lited te6nolo)ial atastrop6e, it
(o8ld also lea'e 8s de&enseless a)ainst e'ent8al asteroidal and ometar7 impats$
2r 7o8 mi)6t ima)ine t6rottlin) bak m86 &8rt6er, bak to 68nter-)at6erer soiet7, (6ere
(e li'e o&& t6e nat8ral prod8ts o& t6e land and abandon e'en a)ri8lt8re$ >a'elin, di))in) stik,
bo(, arro(, and &ire (o8ld t6en be te6nolo)7 eno8)6$ B8t t6e Eart6 o8ld s8pport at t6e 'er7
most a &e( tens o& millions o& 68nter-)at6erers$ 4o( o8ld (e )et do(n to s86 lo( pop8lation
le'els (it6o8t insti)atin) t6e 'er7 atastrop6es (e are tr7in) to a'oidD Besides, (e 6ardl7 kno(
6o( to li'e t6e 68nter-)at6erer li&e an7more: *eA'e &or)otten t6eir 8lt8res, t6eir skills, t6eir
tool-kits$ *eA'e killed o&& almost all o& t6em, and (eA'e destro7ed m86 o& t6e en'ironment t6at
s8stained t6em$ ECept &or a tin7 remnant o& 8s, (e mi)6t not be able, e'en i& (e )a'e it 6i)6
priorit7, to )o bak$ ,nd a)ain, e'en i& (e o8ld ret8rn, (e (o8ld be 6elpless be&ore t6e impat
atastrop6e t6at ineCorabl7 (ill ome$
36e alternati'es seem (orse t6an r8el: 36e7 are ine&&eti'e$ 5an7 o& t6e dan)ers (e &ae
indeed arise &rom siene and te6nolo)7Gb8t, more &8ndamentall7, bea8se (e lea'e beome
po(er&8l (it6o8t beomin) ommens8ratel7 (ise$ 36e (orld-alterin) po(ers t6at te6nolo)7
6as deli'ered into o8r 6ands no( reK8ire a de)ree o& onsideration and &oresi)6t t6at 6as ne'er
be&ore been asked o& 8s$
1;6
Siene 8ts t(o (a7s, o& o8rse? its prod8ts an be 8sed &or bot6 )ood and e'il$ B8t
t6ereAs no t8rnin) bak &rom siene$ 36e earl7 (arnin)s abo8t te6nolo)ial dan)ers also ome
&rom siene$ 36e sol8tions ma7 (ell reK8ire more o& 8s t6an H8st a te6nolo)ial &iC$ 5an7 (ill
6a'e to beome sienti&iall7 literate$ *e ma7 6a'e to 6an)e instit8tions and be6a'ior$ B8t o8r
problems, (6ate'er t6eir ori)in, annot be sol'ed apart &rom siene$ 36e te6nolo)ies t6at
t6reaten 8s and t6e ir8m'ention o& t6ose t6reats bot6 iss8e &rom t6e same &ont$ 36e7 are rain)
nek and nek$
In ontrast, (it6 68man soieties on se'eral (orlds, o8r prospets (o8ld be &ar more
&a'orable$ 28r port&olio (o8ld be di'ersi&ied$ 28r e))s (o8ld be, almost literall7, in man7
baskets$ Ea6 soiet7 (o8ld tend to be pro8d o& t6e 'irt8es o& its (orld, its planetar7
en)ineerin), its soial on'entions, its 6ereditar7 predispositions$ Neessaril7, 8lt8ral
di&&erenes (o8ld be 6eris6ed and eCa))erated$ 36is di'ersit7 (o8ld ser'e as a tool o& s8r'i'al$
*6en t6e o&& Eart6 settlements are better able to &end &or t6emsel'es, t6e7 (ill 6a'e e'er7
reason to eno8ra)e te6nolo)ial ad'ane, openness o& spirit, and ad'ent8reGe'en i& t6ose le&t
on Eart6 are obli)ed to priIe a8tion, &ear ne( kno(led)e, and instit8te !raonian soial
ontrols$ ,&ter t6e &irst &e( sel&-s8stainin) omm8nities are establis6ed on ot6er (orlds, t6e
Eart6lin)s mi)6t also be able to relaC t6eir strit8res and li)6ten 8p$ 36e 68mans in spae (o8ld
pro'ide t6ose on Eart6 (it6 real protetion a)ainst rare b8t atastrop6i ollisions b7 asteroids
or omets on ro)8e traHetories$ 2& o8rse, &or t6is 'er7 reason, 68mans in spae (o8ld 6old t6e
8pper 6and in an7 serio8s disp8te (it6 t6ose on Eart6$
36e prospets o& s86 a time ontrast pro'oati'el7 (it6 &oreasts t6at t6e pro)ress o&
siene and te6nolo)7 is no( near some as7mptoti limit? t6at art, literat8re, and m8si are
ne'er to approa6, m86 less eCeed, t6e 6ei)6ts o8r speies 6as, on oasion, alread7 to86ed?
and t6at politial li&e on Eart6 is abo8t to settle into some rok-stable liberal demorati (orld
)o'ernment, identi&ied, a&ter 4e)el, as Bt6e end o& 6istor7$B S86 an eCpansion into spae also
ontrasts (it6 a di&&erent b8t like(ise disernible trend in reent timesGto(ard a8t6oritarianism,
ensors6ip, et6ni 6atred, and a deep s8spiion o& 8riosit7 and learnin)$ Instead, I t6ink t6at,
a&ter some deb8))in), t6e settlement o& t6e Solar S7stem presa)es an open-ended era o& daIIlin)
ad'anes in siene and te6nolo)7? 8lt8ral &lo(erin)? and (ide-ran)in) eCperiments, 8p t6ere
in t6e sk7, in )o'ernment and soial or)aniIation$ In more t6an one respet, eCplorin) t6e Solar
S7stem and 6omesteadin) ot6er (orlds onstit8tes t6e be)innin), m86 more t6an t6e end, o&
6istor7$
IT'S IMPOSSIBLE, &or 8s 68mans at least, to look into o8r &8t8re, ertainl7 not ent8ries a6ead$
No one 6as e'er done so (it6 an7 onsisten7 and detail$ I ertainl7 do not ima)ine t6at I an$ I
6a'e, (it6 some trepidation, )one as &ar as I 6a'e to t6is point in t6e book, bea8se (e are H8st
reo)niIin) t6e tr8l7 8npreedented 6allen)es bro8)6t on b7 o8r te6nolo)7$ 36ese 6allen)es
6a'e, I t6ink, oasional strai)6t&or(ard impliations, some o& (6i6 IA'e tried brie&l7 to la7 o8t$
36ere are also less strai)6t&or(ard, m86 lon)er-term impliations abo8t (6i6 IAm e'en less
on&ident$ Ne'ert6eless, IAd like to present t6em too &or 7o8r onsideration:
1;7
E'en (6en o8r desendants are establis6ed on near-Eart6 asteroids and 5ars and t6e moons
o& t6e o8ter Solar S7stem and t6e E8iper +omet Belt, it still (onAt be entirel7 sa&e$ In t6e lon)
r8n, t6e S8n ma7 )enerate st8pendo8s 9-ra7 and 8ltra'iolet o8tb8rsts? t6e Solar S7stem (ill
enter one o& t6e 'ast interstellar lo8ds l8rkin) nearb7 and t6e planets (ill darken and ool? a
s6o(er o& deadl7 omets (ill ome roarin) o8t o& t6e 2ort +lo8d t6reatenin) i'iliIations on
man7 adHaent (orlds? (e (ill reo)niIe t6at a nearb7 star is abo8t to beome a s8perno'a$ In
t6e reall7 lon) r8n, t6e S8nGon its (a7 to beomin) a red )iant starG(ill )et bi))er and
bri)6ter, t6e Eart6 (ill be)in to lose its air and (ater to spae, t6e soil (ill 6ar, t6e oeans (ill
e'aporate and boil, t6e roks (ill 'aporiIe, and o8r planet ma7 e'en be s(allo(ed 8p into t6e
interior o& t6e S8n$
%ar &rom bein) made &or 8s, e'ent8all7 t6e Solar S7stem (ill beome too dan)ero8s &or 8s$
In t6e lon) r8n, p8ttin) all o8r e))s in a sin)le stellar basket, no matter 6o( reliable t6e Solar
S7stem 6as been latel7, ma7 be too risk7$ In t6e lon) r8n, as 3siolko'sk7 and /oddard lon) a)o
reo)niIed, (e need to lea'e t6e Solar S7stem$
I& t6atAs tr8e &or 8s, 7o8 mi)6t 'er7 (ell ask, (67 isnAt it tr8e &or ot6ersD ,nd i& it i tr8e
&or ot6ers, (67 arenAt t6e7 6ereD 36ere are man7 possible ans(ers, inl8din) t6e ontention t6at
t6e7 (a4e ome 6ereGalt6o8)6 t6e e'idene &or t6at is piti&8ll7 slim$ 2r t6ere ma7 be no one
else o8t t6ere, bea8se t6e7 destro7 t6emsel'es, (it6 almost no eCeptions, be&ore t6e7 a6ie'e
interstellar &li)6t? or bea8se in a )alaC7 o& 400 billion s8ns o8rs is t6e &irst te6nial i'iliIation$
, more likel7 eCplanation, I t6ink, iss8es &rom t6e simple &at t6at spae is 'ast and t6e
stars are &ar apart$ E'en i& t6ere (ere i'iliIations m86 older and more ad'aned t6an (eG
eCpandin) o8t &rom t6eir 6ome (orlds, re(orkin) ne( (orlds, and t6en ontin8in) on(ard to
ot6er starsGt6e7 (o8ld be 8nlikel7, aordin) to al8lations per&ormed b7 *illiam I$ Ne(man
o& 1+., and me, to be 6ere$ :et$ ,nd bea8se t6e speed o& li)6t is &inite, t6e 3# and radar ne(s
t6at a te6nial i'iliIation 6as arisen on some planet o& t6e S8n 6as not rea6ed t6em$ :et$
S6o8ld optimisti estimates pre'ail and one in e'er7 million stars s6elters a nearb7
te6nolo)ial i'iliIation, and i& as (ell t6e7Are randoml7 stre(n t6ro8)6 t6e 5ilk7 *a7G(ere
t6ese pro'isos to 6oldGt6en t6e nearest one, (e reall, (o8ld be a &e( 68ndred li)6t-7ears
distant: at t6e losest, ma7be 100 li)6t7ears, more likel7 a t6o8sand li)6t-7ears-and, o& o8rse,
per6aps no(6ere, no matter 6o( &ar$ S8ppose t6e nearest i'iliIation on a planet o& anot6er star
is, sa7, "00 li)6t-7ears a(a7$ 36en, some 150 7ears &rom no( t6e7All be)in to reei'e o8r &eeble
post-*orld *ar II tele'ision and radar emission$ *6at (ill t6e7 make o& itD *it6 ea6 passin)
7ear t6e si)nal (ill )et lo8der, more interestin), per6aps more alarmin)$ E'ent8all7, t6e7 ma7
respond: b7 ret8rnin) a radio messa)e, or b7 'isitin)$ In eit6er ase, t6e response (ill likel7 be
limited b7 t6e &inite 'al8e o& t6e speed o& li)6t$ *it6 t6ese (ildl7 8nertain n8mbers, t6e ans(er
to o8r 8nintentional mid-ent8r7 all into t6e dept6s o& spae (ill not arri'e 8ntil aro8nd t6e
7ear "350$ I& t6e7Are &art6er a(a7, o& o8rse, it (ill take lon)er? and i& m86 &art6er a(a7, m86
lon)er$ 36e interestin) possibilit7 arises t6at o8r &irst reeipt o& a messa)e &rom an alien
i'iliIation, a messa)e intended &or 8s =not H8st an all-points b8lletin<, (ill o8r in a time (6en
(e are (ell sit8ated on man7 (orlds in o8r solar s7stem and preparin) to mo'e on$
1;;
*it6 or (it6o8t s86 a messa)e, t6o8)6, (e (ill 6a'e reason to ontin8e o8t(ard, seekin)
ot6er solar s7stems$ 2rGe'en sa&er in t6is 8npreditable and 'iolent setor o& t6e /alaC7Gto
seK8ester some o& 8s in sel&-s8&&iient 6abitations in interstellar spae, &ar &rom t6e dan)ers
onstit8ted b7 t6e stars$ S86 a &8t8re (o8ld, I t6ink, nat8rall7 e'ol'e, b7 slo( inrements, e'en
(it6o8t an7 )rand )oal o& interstellar tra'el:
%or sa&et7, some omm8nities ma7 (is6 to se'er t6eir ties (it6 t6e rest o& 68manit7G
8nin&l8ened b7 ot6er soieties, ot6er et6ial odes, ot6er te6nolo)ial imperati'es$ In a time
(6en omets and asteroids are bein) ro8tinel7 repositioned, (e (ill be able to pop8late a small
(orld and t6en 8t it loose$ In s8essi'e )enerations, as t6is (orld sped o8t(ard, t6e Eart6
(o8ld &ade &rom bri)6t star to pale dot to in'isibilit7? t6e S8n (o8ld appear dimmer, 8ntil it (as
no more t6an a 'a)8el7 7ello( point o& li)6t, lost amon) t6o8sands o& ot6ers$ 36e tra'elers
(o8ld approa6 interstellar ni)6t$ Some s86 omm8nities ma7 be ontent (it6 oasional
radio and laser tra&&i (it6 t6e old 6ome (orlds$ 2t6ers, on&ident o& t6e s8periorit7 o& t6eir
o(n s8r'i'al 6anes and (ar7 o& ontamination, ma7 tr7 to disappear$ 0er6aps all ontat (it6
t6em (ill 8ltimatel7 be lost, t6eir 'er7 eCistene &or)otten$
E'en t6e reso8res o& a siIable asteroid or omet are &inite, t6o8)6, and e'ent8all7 more
reso8res m8st be so8)6t else(6ereGespeiall7 (ater, needed &or drink, &or a breat6able
oC7)en atmosp6ere, and &or 67dro)en to po(er &8sion reators$ So in t6e lon) r8n t6ese
omm8nities m8st mi)rate &rom (orld to (orld, (it6 no lastin) lo7alt7 to an7$ *e mi)6t all it
Bpioneerin),B or B6omesteadin)$B , less s7mpat6eti obser'er mi)6t desribe it as s8kin) dr7
t6e reso8res o& little (orld a&ter little (orld$ B8t t6ere are a trillion little (orlds in t6e 2ort
+omet +lo8d$
.i'in) in small n8mbers on a modest stepmot6er (orld &ar &rom t6e S8n, (e (ill kno( t6at
e'er7 srap o& &ood and e'er7 drop o& (ater is dependent on t6e smoot6 operation o& a
&arsi)6ted te6nolo)7? b8t t6ese onditions are not radiall7 8nlike t6ose to (6i6 (e are
alread7 a8stomed$ !i))in) reso8res o8t o& t6e )ro8nd and stalkin) passin) reso8res seem
oddl7 &amiliar, like a &or)otten memor7 o& 6ild6ood: It is, (it6 a &e( si)ni&iant 6an)es, t6e
strate)7 o& o8r 68nter-)at6erer anestors$ %or 99$9 perent o& t6e ten8re o& 68mans on Eart6, (e
li'ed s86 a li&e$ >8d)in) &rom some o& t6e last s8r'i'in) 68nter-)at6erers H8st be&ore t6e7 (ere
en)8l&ed b7 t6e present )lobal i'iliIation, (e ma7 6a'e been relati'el7 6app7$ ItAs t6e kind o&
li&e t6at &or)ed 8s$ So a&ter a brie&, onl7 partiall7 s8ess&8l sedentar7 eCperiment, (e ma7
beome (anderers a)ain-more te6nolo)ial t6an last time, b8t e'en t6en o8r te6nolo)7, stone
tools and &ire, (as o8r onl7 6ed)e a)ainst eCtintion$
I& sa&et7 lies in isolation and remoteness, t6en some o& o8r desendants (ill e'ent8all7
emi)rate to t6e o8ter omets o& t6e 2ort +lo8d$ *it6 a trillion ometar7 n8lei, ea6 separated
&rom t6e neCt b7 abo8t as m86 as 5ars is &rom Eart6, t6ere (ill be a )reat deal to do o8t t6ere$
1
1
E'en i& (e are not in an7 parti8lar 68rr7, (e ma7 be able b7 t6en to make small (orlds mo'e &aster t6an (e an make spaera&t
mo'e toda7$ I& so, o8r desendants (ill e'ent8all7 o'ertake t6e t(o Vo$ager spaera&tGla8n6ed in t6e remote t(entiet6 ent8r7G
be&ore t6e7 lea'e t6e 2ort +lo8d, be&ore t6e7 make &or interstellar spae$ 0er6aps t6e7 (ill retrie'e t6ese derelit s6ips o& lon) a)o$
2r per6aps t6e7 (ill permit t6em to sail on$
1;9
36e o8ter ed)e o& t6e S8nAs 2ort +lo8d is per6aps 6al&(a7 to t6e nearest star$ Not e'er7
ot6er star 6as an 2ort +lo8d, b8t man7 probabl7 do$ ,s t6e S8n passes nearb7 stars, o8r 2ort
+lo8d (ill eno8nter, and partiall7 pass t6ro8)6, ot6er omet lo8ds, like t(o s(arms o& )nats
interpenetratin) b8t not ollidin)$ 3o o8p7 a omet o& anot6er star (ill t6en be not m86 more
di&&i8lt t6an to o8p7 one o& o8r o(n$ %rom t6e &rontiers o& some ot6er solar s7stem t6e
6ildren o& t6e bl8e dot ma7 peer lon)in)l7 at t6e mo'in) points o& li)6t denotin) s8bstantial
=and (ell-lit< planets$ Some omm8nitiesG&eelin) t6e anient 68man lo'e &or oeans and
s8nli)6t stirrin) (it6in t6emGma7 be)in t6e lon) Ho8rne7 do(n to t6e bri)6t, (arm, and
lement planets o& a ne( s8n$
2t6er omm8nities ma7 onsider t6is last strate)7 a (eakness$ 0lanets are assoiated (it6
nat8ral atastrop6es$ 0lanets ma7 6a'e pre-eCistin) li&e and intelli)ene$ 0lanets are eas7 &or
ot6er bein)s to &ind$ Better to remain in t6e darkness$ Better to spread o8rsel'es amon) man7
Bsmall and obs8re (orlds$ Better to sta7 6idden$
ONCE WE CAN SEND o8r ma6ines and o8rsel'es &ar &rom 6ome, &ar &rom t6e planetsGone (e
reall7 enter t6e t6eater o& t6e 1ni'erseG(e are bo8nd to ome 8pon p6enomena 8nlike an7t6in)
(eA'e e'er eno8ntered$ 4ere are t6ree possible eCamples:
%irst: Startin) some 550 astronomial 8nits =,1< o8tGabo8t ten times &art6er &rom t6e S8n
t6an >8piter, and t6ere&ore m86 more aessible t6an t6e 2ort +lo8dGt6ereAs somet6in)
eCtraordinar7$ >8st as an ordinar7 lens &o8ses &ar-o&& ima)es, so does )ra'it7$ =/ra'itational
lensin) b7 distant stars and )alaCies is no( bein) deteted$< %i'e 68ndred &i&t7 ,1 &rom t6e S8n
Gonl7 a 7ear a(a7 i& (e o8ld tra'el at 1 perent t6e speed o& li)6tGis (6ere t6e &o8s be)ins
=alt6o8)6 (6en e&&ets o& t6e solar orona, t6e 6alo o& ioniIed )as s8rro8ndin) t6e S8n, are taken
into ao8nt, t6e &o8s ma7 be onsiderabl7 &art6er o8t<$ 36ere, distant radio si)nals are
enormo8sl7 en6aned, ampli&7in) (6ispers$ 36e ma)ni&iation o& distant ima)es (o8ld allo( 8s
=(it6 a modest radio telesope< to resol'e a ontinent at t6e distane o& t6e nearest star and t6e
inner Solar S7stem at t6e distane o& t6e nearest spiral )alaC7$ I& 7o8 are &ree to roam an
ima)inar7 sp6erial s6ell at t6e appropriate &oal distane and entered on t6e S8n, 7o8 are &ree
to eCplore t6e 1ni'erse in st8pendo8s ma)ni&iation, to peer at it (it6 8npreedented larit7, to
ea'esdrop on t6e radio si)nals o& distant i'iliIations, i& an7, and to )limpse t6e earliest e'ents in
t6e 6istor7 o& t6e 1ni'erse$ ,lternati'el7, t6e lens o8ld be 8sed t6e ot6er (a7, to ampli&7 a 'er7
modest si)nal o& o8rs so it o8ld be 6eard o'er immense distanes$ 36ere are reasons t6at dra(
8s to 68ndreds and t6o8sands o& ,1$ 2t6er i'iliIations (ill 6a'e t6eir o(n re)ions o&
)ra'itational &o8sin), dependin) on t6e mass and radi8s o& t6eir star, some a little loser, some a
little &art6er a(a7 t6an o8rs$ /ra'itational lensin) ma7 ser'e as a ommon ind8ement &or
i'iliIations to eCplore t6e re)ions H8st be7ond t6e planetar7 parts o& t6eir solar s7stems$
Seond: Spend a moment t6inkin) abo8t bro(n d(ar&s, 67pot6etial 'er7 lo( temperat8re
stars, onsiderabl7 more massi'e t6an >8piter, b8t onsiderabl7 less massi'e t6an t6e S8n$
Nobod7 kno(s i& bro(n d(ar&s eCist$ Some eCperts, 8sin) nearer stars as )ra'itational lenses to
detet t6e presene o& more distant ones, laim to 6a'e &o8nd e'idene o& bro(n d(ar&s$ %rom
190
t6e tin7 &ration o& t6e (6ole sk7 t6at 6as so &ar been obser'ed b7 t6is te6niK8e, an enormo8s
n8mber o& bro(n d(ar&s is in&erred$ 2t6ers disa)ree$ In t6e 1950s, it (as s8))ested b7 t6e
astronomer 4arlo( S6aple7 o& 4ar'ard t6at bro(n d(ar&sG6e alled t6em B.illip8tian starsBG
(ere in6abited$ 4e pit8red t6eir s8r&aes as (arm as a >8ne da7 in +ambrid)e, (it6 lots o& area$
36e7 (o8ld be stars t6at 68mans o8ld s8r'i'e on and eCplore$
36ird: 36e p67siists B$ >$ +arr and Step6en 4a(kin) o& +ambrid)e 1ni'ersit7 6a'e s6o(n
t6at &l8t8ations in t6e densit7 o& matter in t6e earliest sta)es o& t6e 1ni'erse o8ld 6a'e
)enerated a (ide 'ariet7 o& small blak 6oles$ 0rimordial blak 6olesGi& t6e7 eCistGm8st dea7
b7 emittin) radiation to spae, a onseK8ene o& t6e la(s o& K8ant8m me6anis$ 36e less
massi'e t6e blak 6ole, t6e &aster it dissipates$ ,n7 primordial blak 6ole in t6e &inal sta)es o&
dea7 toda7 (o8ld 6a'e to (ei)6 abo8t as m86 as a mo8ntain$ ,ll t6e smaller ones are )one$
Sine t6e ab8ndaneGto sa7 not6in) o& t6e eCisteneGo& primordial blak 6oles depends on
(6at 6appened in t6e earliest moments a&ter t6e Bi) Ban), no one an be s8re t6at t6ere are an7
to be &o8nd? (e ertainl7 anAt be s8re t6at an7 lie nearb7$ Not 'er7 restriti'e 8pper limits on
t6eir ab8ndane 6a'e been set b7 t6e &ail8re so &ar to &ind s6ort )amma ra7 p8lses, a omponent
o& t6e 4a(kin) radiation$
In a separate st8d7, /$ E$ Bro(n o& +alte6 and t6e pioneerin) n8lear p67siist 4ans Bet6e
o& +ornell s8))est t6at abo8t a billion non-primordial blak 6oles are stre(n t6ro8)6 t6e /alaC7,
)enerated in t6e e'ol8tion o& stars$ I& so, t6e nearest ma7 be onl7 10 or "0 li)6t7ears a(a7$
I& t6ere are blak 6oles (it6in rea6G(6et6er t6e7Are as massi'e as mo8ntains or as starsG
(e (ill 6a'e amaIin) p67sis to st8d7 &irst6and, as (ell as a &ormidable ne( so8re o& ener)7$
B7 no means do I laim t6at bro(n d(ar&s or primordial blak 6oles are likel7 (it6in a &e(
li)6t-7ears, or an7(6ere$ B8t as (e enter interstellar spae, it is ine'itable t6at (e (ill st8mble
8pon (6ole ne( ate)ories o& (onders and deli)6ts, some (it6 trans&ormin) pratial
appliations$
I do not kno( (6ere m7 train o& ar)8ment ends$ ,s more time passes, attrati'e ne(
deniIens o& t6e osmi Ioo (ill dra( 8s &art6er o8t(ard, and inreasin)l7 improbable and
deadl7 atastrop6es m8st ome to pass$ 36e probabilities are 8m8lati'e$ B8t, as time )oes on,
te6nolo)ial speies (ill also ar8e )reater and )reater po(ers, &ar s8rpassin) an7 (e an
ima)ine toda7$ 0er6aps, i& (e are 'er7 skill&8l =l8k7, I t6ink, (onAt be eno8)6<, (e (ill
8ltimatel7 spread &ar &rom 6ome, sailin) t6ro8)6 t6e starr7 ar6ipela)os o& t6e 'ast 5ilk7 *a7
/alaC7$ I& (e ome 8pon an7one elseGor, more likel7, i& t6e7 ome 8pon 8sG(e (ill
6armonio8sl7 interat$ Sine ot6er spae&arin) i'iliIations are likel7 to be m86 more ad'aned
t6an (e, K8arrelsome 68mans in interstellar spae are 8nlikel7 to last lon)$
E'ent8all7, o8r &8t8re ma7 be as #oltaire, o& all people, ima)ined:
Sometimes b7 t6e 6elp o& a s8nbeam, and sometimes b7 t6e on'eniene o& a omet,
Qt6e7R )lided &rom sp6ere to sp6ere, as a bird 6ops &rom bo8)6 to bo8)6$ In a 'er7 little
time Qt6e7R posted t6ro8)6 t6e 5ilk7 *a7 $ $ $
191
*e are, e'en no(, diso'erin) 'ast n8mbers o& )as and d8st disks aro8nd 7o8n) starsGt6e
'er7 str8t8res o8t o& (6i6, in o8r solar s7stem &o8r and a 6al& billion 7ears a)o, t6e Eart6 and
t6e ot6er planets &ormed$ *eAre be)innin) to 8nderstand 6o( &ine d8st )rains slo(l7 )ro( into
(orlds? 6o( bi) Eart6like planets arete and t6en K8ikl7 apt8re 67dro)en and 6eli8m to
beome t6e 6idden ores o& )as )iants? and 6o( small terrestrial planets remain omparati'el7
bare o& atmosp6ere$ *e are reonstr8tin) t6e 6istories o& (orldsG6o( mainl7 ies and or)anis
olleted to)et6er in t6e 6ill7 o8tskirts o& t6e earl7 Solar S7stem, and mainl7 rok and metal in
t6e inner re)ions (armed b7 t6e 7o8n) S8n$ *e 6a'e be)8n to reo)niIe t6e dominant role o&
earl7 ollisions in knokin) (orlds o'er, )o8)in) 68)e raters and basins in t6eir s8r&aes and
interiors, spinnin) t6em 8p, makin) and obliteratin) moons, reatin) rin)s, arr7in), it ma7 be,
(6ole oeans do(n &rom t6e skies, and t6en depositin) a 'eneer o& or)ani matter as t6e neat
&inis6in) to86 in t6e reation o& (orlds$ *e are be)innin) to appl7 t6is kno(led)e to ot6er
s7stems$
In t6e neCt &e( deades (e 6a'e a real 6ane o& eCaminin) t6e la7o8t and somet6in) o& t6e
omposition o& man7 ot6er mat8re planetar7 s7stems aro8nd nearb7 stars$ *e (ill be)in to kno(
(6i6 aspets o& o8r s7stem are t6e r8le and (6i6 t6e eCeption$ *6at is more ommonG
planets like >8piter, planets like Nept8ne, or planets like Eart6D 2r do all ot6er s7stems 6a'e
>8piters and Nept8nes and Eart6sD *6at ot6er ate)ories o& (orlds are t6ere, 8rrentl7 8nkno(n
to 8sD ,re all solar s7stems embedded in a 'ast sp6erial lo8d o& ometsD 5ost stars in t6e sk7
are not solitar7 s8ns like o8r o(n, b8t do8ble or m8ltiple s7stems in (6i6 t6e stars are in m8t8al
orbit$ ,re t6ere planets in s86 s7stemsD I& so, (6at are t6e7 likeD I&, as (e no( t6ink, planetar7
s7stems are a ro8tine onseK8ene o& t6e ori)in o& s8ns, 6a'e t6e7 &ollo(ed 'er7 di&&erent
e'ol8tionar7 pat6s else(6ereD *6at do elderl7 planetar7 s7stems, billions o& 7ears more e'ol'ed
t6an o8rs, look likeD In t6e neCt &e( ent8ries o8r kno(led)e o& ot6er s7stems (ill beome
inreasin)l7 ompre6ensi'e$ *e (ill be)in to kno( (6i6 to 'isit, (6i6 to seed, and (6i6 to
settle$
Ima)ine (e o8ld aelerate ontin8o8sl7 at 1 )G(6at (eAre om&ortable (it6 on )ood old
"erra 5irmaGto t6e midpoint o& o8r 'o7a)e, and deelerate ontin8o8sl7 at 1 ) 8ntil (e arri'e at
o8r destination$ It (o8ld t6en take a da7 to )et to 5ars, a (eek and a 6al& to 0l8to, a 7ear to t6e
2ort +lo8d, and a &e( 7ears to t6e nearest stars$
E'en a modest eCtrapolation o& o8r reent ad'anes in transportation s8))ests t6at in onl7 a
&e( ent8ries (e (ill be able to tra'el lose to t6e speed o& li)6t$ 0er6aps t6is is 6opelessl7
optimisti$ 0er6aps it (ill reall7 take millennia or more$ B8t 8nless (e destro7 o8rsel'es &irst
(e (ill be in'entin) ne( te6nolo)ies as stran)e to 8s as Vo$ager mi)6t be to o8r 68nter-
)at6erer anestors$ E'en toda7 (e an t6ink o& (a7sGl8ms7, r8ino8sl7 eCpensi'e, ine&&iient
to be s8reGo& onstr8tin) a stars6ip t6at approa6es li)6t speed$ In time, t6e desi)ns (ill
beome more ele)ant, more a&&ordable, more e&&iient$ 36e da7 (ill ome (6en (e o'erome
t6e neessit7 o& H8mpin) &rom omet to omet$ *e (ill be)in to soar t6ro8)6 t6e li)6t-7ears
and, as St$ ,8)8stine said o& t6e )ods o& t6e anient /reeks and -omans, oloniIe t6e sk7$
S86 desendants ma7 be tens or 68ndreds o& )enerations remo'ed &rom an7one (6o e'er
li'ed on t6e s8r&ae o& a planet$ 36eir 8lt8res (ill be di&&erent, t6eir te6nolo)ies &ar ad'aned,
19"
t6eir lan)8a)es 6an)ed, t6eir assoiation (it6 ma6ine intelli)ene m86 more intimate,
per6aps t6eir 'er7 appearane markedl7 altered &rom t6at o& t6eir nearl7 m7t6ial anestors (6o
&irst tentati'el7 set &ort6 in t6e late t(entiet6 ent8r7 into t6e sea o& spae$ B8t t6e7 (ill be
68man, at least in lar)e part? t6e7 (ill be pratitioners o& 6i)6 te6nolo)7? t6e7 (ill 6a'e
6istorial reords$ !espite ,8)8stineAs H8d)ment on .otAs (i&e, t6at Bno one (6o is bein) sa'ed
s6o8ld lon) &or (6at 6e is lea'in),B t6e7 (ill not (6oll7 &or)et t6e Eart6$
B8t (eAre not nearl7 read7, 7o8 ma7 be t6inkin)$ ,s #oltaire p8t it in 6is Memnon9 Bo8r
little terraK8eo8s )lobe is t6e mad6o8se o& t6ose 68ndred t6o8sand millions
1
o& (orlds$B *e,
(6o annot e'en p8t o8r o(n planetar7 6ome in order, ri'en (it6 ri'alries and 6atreds,
despoilin) o8r en'ironment, m8rderin) one anot6er t6ro8)6 irritation and inattention as (ell as
on deadl7 p8rpose, and moreo'er a speies t6at 8ntil onl7 reentl7 (as on'ined t6at t6e
1ni'erse (as made &or its sole bene&itGare (e to 'ent8re o8t into spae, mo'e (orlds,
reen)ineer planets, spread to nei)6borin) star s7stemsD
I do not ima)ine t6at it is preisel7 <e9 (it6 o8r present 8stoms and soial on'entions,
(6o (ill be o8t t6ere$ I& (e ontin8e to a8m8late onl7 po(er and not (isdom, (e (ill s8rel7
destro7 o8rsel'es$ 28r 'er7 eCistene in t6at distant time reK8ires t6at (e (ill 6a'e 6an)ed o8r
instit8tions and o8rsel'es$ 4o( an I dare to )8ess abo8t 68mans in t6e &ar &8t8reD It is, I t6ink,
onl7 a matter o& nat8ral seletion$ I& (e beome e'en sli)6tl7 more 'iolent, s6ortsi)6ted,
i)norant, and sel&is6 t6an (e are no(, almost ertainl7 (e (ill 6a'e no &8t8re$
I& 7o8Are 7o8n), itAs H8st possible t6at (e (ill be takin) o8r &irst steps on near-Eart6
asteroids and 5ars d8rin) 7o8r li&etime$ 3o spread o8t to t6e moons o& t6e >o'ian planets and t6e
E8iper +omet Belt (ill take man7 )enerations more$ 36e 2ort +lo8d (ill reK8ire m86 lon)er
still$ B7 t6e time (eAre read7 to settle e'en t6e nearest ot6er planetar7 s7stems, (e (ill 6a'e
6an)ed$ 36e simple passa)e o& so man7 )enerations (ill 6a'e 6an)ed 8s$ 36e di&&erent
ir8mstanes (e (ill be li'in) 8nder (ill 6a'e 6an)ed 8s$ 0rost6eses and )eneti en)ineerin)
(ill 6a'e 6an)ed 8s$ Neessit7 (ill 6a'e 6an)ed 8s$ *eAre an adaptable speies$
It (ill not be (e (6o rea6 ,lp6a +enta8ri and t6e ot6er nearb7 stars$ It (ill be a speies
'er7 like 8s, b8t (it6 more o& o8r stren)t6s and &e(er o& o8r (eaknesses, a speies ret8rned to
ir8mstanes more like t6ose &or (6i6 it (as ori)inall7 e'ol'ed, more on&ident, &arseein),
apable, and pr8dentGt6e sorts o& bein)s (e (o8ld (ant to represent 8s in a 1ni'erse t6at, &or
all (e kno(, is &illed (it6 speies m86 older, m86 more po(er&8l, and 'er7 di&&erent$
36e 'ast distanes t6at separate t6e stars are pro'idential$ Bein)s and (orlds are
K8arantined &rom one anot6er$ 36e K8arantine is li&ted onl7 &or t6ose (it6 s8&&iient sel&-
kno(led)e and H8d)ment to 6a'e sa&el7 tra'eled &rom star to star$
ON IMMENSE TIMESCALES, in 68ndreds o& millions to billions o& 7ears, t6e enters o& )alaCies
eCplode$ *e see, sattered aross deep spae, )alaCies (it6 Bati'e n8lei,B K8asars, )alaCies
distorted b7 ollisions, t6eir spiral arms disr8pted, star s7stems blasted (it6 radiation or )obbled
1
, 'al8e t6at niel7 approCimates modern estimates o& t6e n8mber o& planets orbitin) stars in t6e 5ilk7 *a7 /alaC7$
193
8p b7 blak 6olesGand (e )at6er t6at on s86 timesales e'en interstellar spae, e'en )alaCies
ma7 not be sa&e$
36ere is a 6alo o& dark matter s8rro8ndin) t6e 5ilk7 *a7, eCtendin) per6aps 6al&(a7 to
t6e distane o& t6e neCt spiral )alaC7 =531 in t6e onstellation ,ndromeda, (6i6 also ontains
68ndreds o& billions o& stars<$ *e do not kno( (6at t6is dark matter is, or 6o( it is arran)edG
b8t some
1
o& it ma7 be in (orlds 8ntet6ered to indi'id8al stars$ I& so, o8r desendants o& t6e
remote &8t8re (ill 6a'e an opport8nit7, o'er 8nima)inable inter'als o& time, to beome
establis6ed in inter)alati spae, and to tiptoe to ot6er )alaCies$
B8t on t6e timesale &or pop8latin) o8r )alaC7, i& not lon) be&ore, (e m8st ask: 4o(
imm8table is t6is lon)in) &or sa&et7 t6at dri'es 8s o8t(ardD *ill (e one da7 &eel ontent (it6
t6e time o8r speies 6as 6ad and o8r s8esses, and (illin)l7 eCit t6e osmi sta)eD 5illions o&
7ears &rom no(Gprobabl7 m86 soonerG(e (ill 6a'e made o8rsel'es into somet6in) else$
E'en i& (e do not6in) intentionall7, t6e nat8ral proess o& m8tation and seletion (ill 6a'e
(orked o8r eCtintion or e'ol'ed 8s into some ot6er speies on H8st s86 a timesale =i& (e ma7
H8d)e b7 ot6er mammals<$ 2'er t6e t7pial li&etime o& a mammalian speies, e'en i& (e (ere
able to tra'el lose to t6e speed o& li)6t and (ere dediated to not6in) else, (e o8ld not, I
t6ink, eCplore e'en a representati'e &ration o& t6e 5ilk7 *a7 /alaC7$ 36ereAs H8st too m86 o&
it$ ,nd be7ond are a 68ndred billion )alaCies more$ *ill o8r present moti'ations remain
8n6an)ed o'er )eolo)ial, m86 less osmolo)ial, timesalesG(6en (e o8rsel'es 6a'e been
trans&i)8redD In s86 remote epo6s, (e ma7 diso'er o8tlets &or o8r ambitions &ar )rander and
more (ort67 t6an merel7 pop8latin) an 8nlimited n8mber o& (orlds$
0er6aps, some sientists 6a'e ima)ined, (e (ill one da7 reate ne( &orms o& li&e, link
minds, oloniIe stars, reon&i)8re )alaCies, or pre'ent, in a nearb7 'ol8me o& spae, t6e
eCpansion o& t6e 1ni'erse$ In a 1993 artile in t6e Ho8rnal 0u7lear P($i79 t6e p67siist ,ndrei
.indeGonei'abl7, in a pla7&8l moodGs8))ests t6at laborator7 eCperiments =it (o8ld 6a'e to
be K8ite a laborator7< to reate separate, losed-o&&, eCpandin) 8ni'erses mi)6t 8ltimatel7 be
possible$ B4o(e'er,B 6e (rites to me, BI m7sel& do not kno( (6et6er Qt6is s8))estionR is simpl7
a Hoke or somet6in) else$B In s86 a list o& proHets &or t6e &ar &8t8re, (e (ill 6a'e no di&&i8lt7
in reo)niIin) a ontin8in) 68man ambition to arro)ate po(ers one onsidered )odlikeGor, in
t6at ot6er more eno8ra)in) metap6or, to omplete t6e +reation$
FOR MANY PAGES NOW, (e 6a'e le&t t6e realm o& pla8sible onHet8re &or t6e 6ead7 intoCiation
o& nearl7 8nonstrained spe8lation$ It is time to ret8rn to o8r o(n a)e$
57 )rand&at6er, born be&ore radio (a'es (ere e'en a laborator7 8riosit7, almost li'ed to
see t6e &irst arti&iial satellite beepin) do(n at 8s &rom spae$ 36ere are people (6o (ere born
be&ore t6ere (as s86 a t6in) as an airplane, and (6o in old a)e sa( &o8r s6ips la8n6ed to t6e
stars$ %or all o8r &ailin)s, despite o8r limitations and &allibilities, (e 68mans are apable o&
)reatness$ 36is is tr8e o& o8r siene and some areas o& o8r te6nolo)7, o& o8r art, m8si,
1
5ost o& it ma7 be in Bnonbar7oniB matter, not made o& o8r &amiliar protons and ne8trons, and not anti-matter eit6er$ 2'er 90
perent o& t6e mass o& t6e 1ni'erse seems to be in t6is dark, K8intessential, deepl7 m7sterio8s st8&& (6oll7 8nkno(n on Eart6$
0er6aps (e (ill one da7 not onl7 8nderstand it, b8t also &ind a 8se &or it$
194
literat8re, altr8ism, and ompassion, and e'en, on rare oasion, o& o8r statera&t$ *6at ne(
(onders 8ndreamt o& in o8r time (ill (e 6a'e (ro8)6t in anot6er )enerationD ,nd anot6erD
4o( &ar (ill o8r nomadi speies 6a'e (andered b7 t6e end o& t6e neCt ent8r7D ,nd t6e neCt
millenni8mD
3(o billion 7ears a)o o8r anestors (ere mirobes? a 6al&billion 7ears a)o, &is6? a 68ndred
million 7ears a)o, somet6in) like mie? ten million 7ears a)o, arboreal apes? and a million 7ears
a)o, proto-68mans p8IIlin) o8t t6e tamin) o& &ire$ 28r e'ol8tionar7 linea)e is marked b7
master7 o& 6an)e$ In o8r time, t6e pae is K8ikenin)$
*6en (e &irst 'ent8re to a near-Eart6 asteroid, (e (ill 6a'e entered a 6abitat t6at ma7
en)a)e o8r speies &ore'er$ 36e &irst 'o7a)e o& men and (omen to 5ars is t6e ke7 step in
trans&ormin) 8s into a m8ltiplanet speies$ 36ese e'ents are as momento8s as t6e oloniIation o&
t6e land b7 o8r amp6ibian anestors and t6e desent &rom t6e trees b7 o8r primate anestors$
%is6 (it6 r8dimentar7 l8n)s and &ins sli)6tl7 adapted &or (alkin) m8st 6a'e died in )reat
n8mbers be&ore establis6in) a permanent &oot6old on t6e land$ ,s t6e &orests slo(l7 reeded,
o8r 8pri)6t apelike &orebears o&ten s8rried bak into t6e trees, &leein) t6e predators t6at stalked
t6e sa'anna6s$ 36e transitions (ere pain&8l, took millions o& 7ears, and (ere impereptible to
t6ose in'ol'ed$ In o8r ase t6e transition o8pies onl7 a &e( )enerations, and (it6 onl7 a
6and&8l o& li'es lost$ 36e pae is so s(i&t t6at (e are still barel7 able to )rasp (6at is 6appenin)$
2ne t6e &irst 6ildren are born o&& Eart6? one (e 6a'e bases and 6omesteads on
asteroids, omets, moons, and planets? one (eAre li'in) o&& t6e land and brin)in) 8p ne(
)enerations on ot6er (orlds, somet6in) (ill 6a'e 6an)ed &ore'er in 68man 6istor7$ B8t
in6abitin) ot6er (orlds does not impl7 abandonin) t6is one, an7 more t6an t6e e'ol8tion o&
amp6ibians meant t6e end o& &is6$ %or a 'er7 lon) time onl7 a small &ration o& 8s (ill be o8t
t6ere$
BIn modern *estern soiet7,B (rites t6e s6olar +6arles .ind6olm,
t6e erosion o& tradition and t6e ollapse o& aepted reli)io8s belie& lea'es 8s (it6o8t a
"elo Qan end to (6i6 (e stri'eR, a santi&ied notion o& 68manit7As potential$ Bere&t o& a
sared proHet, (e 6a'e onl7 a dem7sti&ied ima)e o& a &rail and &allible 68manit7 no lon)er
apable o& beomin) )od-like$
I belie'e it is 6ealt67Gindeed, essentialGto keep o8r &railt7 and &allibilit7 &irml7 in mind$ I
(orr7 abo8t people (6o aspire to be B)od-like$B B8t as &or a lon)-term )oal and a sared proHet,
t6ere is one be&ore 8s$ 2n it t6e 'er7 s8r'i'al o& o8r speies depends$ I& (e 6a'e been loked and
bolted into a prison o& t6e sel&, 6ere is an esape 6at6Gsomet6in) (ort67, somet6in) 'astl7
lar)er t6an o8rsel'es, a r8ial at on be6al& o& 68manit7$ 0eoplin) ot6er (orlds 8ni&ies nations
and et6ni )ro8ps, binds t6e )enerations, and reK8ires 8s to be bot6 smart and (ise$ It liberates
o8r nat8re and, in part, ret8rns 8s to o8r be)innin)s$ E'en no(, t6is ne( "elo i (it6in o8r )rasp$
36e pioneerin) ps76olo)ist *illiam >ames alled reli)ion a B&eelin) o& bein) at 6ome in
t6e 1ni'erse$B 28r tenden7 6as been, as I desribed in t6e earl7 6apters o& t6is book, to
pretend t6at t6e 1ni'erse is 6o( (e (is6 o8r 6ome (o8ld be, rat6er t6an to re'ise o8r notion o&
195
(6atAs 6ome7 so it embraes t6e 1ni'erse$ I&, in onsiderin) >amesA de&inition, (e mean t6e real
1ni'erse, t6en (e 6a'e no tr8e reli)ion 7et$ 36at is &or anot6er time, (6en t6e stin) o& t6e /reat
!emotions is (ell be6ind 8s, (6en (e are alimatiIed to ot6er (orlds and t6e7 to 8s, (6en (e
are spreadin) o8t(ard to t6e stars$
36e +osmos eCtends, &or all pratial p8rposes, &ore'er$ ,&ter a brie& sedentar7 6iat8s, (e
are res8min) o8r anient nomadi (a7 o& li&e$ 28r remote desendants, sa&el7 arra7ed on man7
(orlds t6ro8)6 t6e Solar S7stem and be7ond, (ill be 8ni&ied b7 t6eir ommon 6erita)e, b7 t6eir
re)ard &or t6eir 6ome planet, and b7 t6e kno(led)e t6at, (6ate'er ot6er li&e ma7 be, t6e onl7
68mans in all t6e 1ni'erse ome &rom Eart6$
36e7 (ill )aIe 8p and strain to &ind t6e bl8e dot in t6eir skies$ 36e7 (ill lo'e it no less &or
its obs8rit7 and &ra)ilit7$ 36e7 (ill mar'el at 6o( '8lnerable t6e repositor7 o& all o8r potential
one (as, 6o( perilo8s o8r in&an7, 6o( 68mble o8r be)innin)s, 6o( man7 ri'ers (e 6ad to
ross be&ore (e &o8nd o8r (a7$

196
,B213 34E ,1342-
+,-. S,/,N (as t6e !a'id !8nan 0ro&essor o& ,stronom7 and Spae Sienes and !iretor o& t6e
.aborator7 &or 0lanetar7 St8dies at +ornell 1ni'ersit7$ 4e pla7ed a leadin) role in t6e ,merian spae
pro)ram sine its ineption$ 4e (as a ons8ltant and ad'isor to N,S, sine t6e 1950s, brie&ed t6e ,pollo
astrona8ts be&ore t6eir &li)6ts to t6e 5oon, and (as an eCperimenter on t6e Mariner9 Viking9 Vo$ager9 and
%alileo eCpeditions to t6e planets$ 4e 6elped sol'e t6e m7steries o& t6e 6i)6 temperat8re o& #en8s =ans(er:
massi'e )reen6o8se e&&et<, t6e seasonal 6an)es on 5ars =ans(er: (indblo(n d8st<, and t6e reddis6 6aIe
o& 3itan =ans(er: ompleC or)ani mole8les<$
%or 6is (ork, !r$ Sa)an reei'ed t6e N,S, medals &or ECeptional Sienti&i ,6ie'ement and
=t(ie< &or !istin)8is6ed 08bli Ser'ie, as (ell as t6e N,S, ,pollo ,6ie'ement ,(ard$ ,steroid "709
Sa)an is named a&ter 6im$ 4e (as also a(arded t6e >o6n %$ Eenned7 ,strona8tis ,(ard o& t6e ,merian
,strona8tial Soiet7, t6e ECplorers +l8b 75t6 ,nni'ersar7 ,(ard, t6e Eonstantin 3siolko'sk7 5edal o&
t6e So'iet +osmona8ts %ederation, and t6e 5as8rsk7 ,(ard o& t6e ,merian ,stronomial Soiet7 =B&or
6is eCtraordinar7 ontrib8tions to t6e de'elopment o& planetar7 siene $$$$ ,s a sientist trained in bot6
astronom7 and biolo)7, !r$ Sa)an 6as made seminal ontrib8tions to t6e st8d7 o& planetar7 atmosp6eres,
planetar7 s8r&aes, t6e 6istor7 o& t6e Eart6, and eCobiolo)7$ 5an7 o& t6e most prod8ti'e planetar7
sientists (orkin) toda7 are 6is present and &ormer st8dents and assoiatesB<$
,+EN2*.E!/5EN3S
5ost o& t6e material in t6is book is ne($ , n8mber o& 6apters 6a'e e'ol'ed &rom artiles &irst p8blis6ed in
Para)e ma)aIine, a s8pplement to t6e S8nda7 editions o& ,merian ne(spapers (6i6, (it6 an estimated
;0 million readers, ma7 be t6e most (idel7 read ma)aIine in t6e (orld$ I am )reatl7 indebted to *alter
,nderson, t6e editor-in-6ie&, and !a'id +8rrier, t6e eCe8ti'e editor, &or t6eir eno8ra)ement and editorial
(isdom? and to t6e readers o& Para)e9 (6ose letters 6a'e 6elped me 8nderstand (6ere I 6a'e been lear,
and (6ere obs8re, and 6o( m7 ar)8ments are reei'ed$ 0ortions o& ot6er 6apters 6a'e emer)ed &rom
artiles p8blis6ed in !ue in S7ien7e an) /e7(nolog$9 .i7o4er9 /(e Plane"ar$ -epor"9 S7ien"i5i7
Ameri7an9 and Popular Me7(ani73
,spets o& t6is book 6a'e been dis8ssed (it6 a lar)e n8mber o& &riends and ollea)8es, (6ose
omments 6a'e )reatl7 impro'ed it$ ,lt6o8)6 t6ere are too man7 to list b7 name, I (o8ld like to eCpress
m7 real )ratit8de to all o& t6em$ I (ant espeiall7, t6o8)6, to t6ank Norman ,8)8stine, -o)er Bonnet,
%reeman !7son, .o8is %riedman, E'erett /ibson, !aniel /oldin, >$ -i6ard /ott III, ,ndrei .inde, >on
.omber), !a'id 5orrison, -oald Sa)dee', Ste'en Soter, Eip 36rone, and %rederik 38rner &or t6eir
omments on all or part o& t6e man8sript? Set6 Ea8&mann, 0eter 36omas, and >os68a /rinspoon &or t6eir
6elp (it6 tables and )rap6s? and a brilliant arra7 o& astronomial artists, akno(led)ed at ea6 ill8stration,
(6o 6a'e permitted me to s6o(ase some o& t6eir (ork$ 36ro8)6 t6e )enerosit7 o& Eat67 4o7t, ,l
5E(en, and .arr7 Soderblom, IA'e been able to displa7 some o& t6e eCeptional p6otomosias, airbr8s6
maps, and ot6er red8tions o& N,S, ima)es aomplis6ed at t6e Bran6 o& ,stro)eolo)7, 1$S$ /eolo)ial
S8r'e7$
I am indebted to ,ndrea Barnett, .a8rel 0arker, >enni&er Bland, .oren 5oone7, Earenn /obre6t,
!ebora6 0earlstein, and t6e late Eleanor :ork &or t6eir able te6nial assistane? and to 4arr7 E'ans, *alter
197
*eintI, ,nn /odo&&, Eat67 -osenbloom, ,nd7 +arpenter, 5art6a S6(artI, and ,lan 5a-obert on t6e
prod8tion end$ Bet6 3ondrea8 is responsible &or m86 o& t6e desi)n ele)ane on t6ese pa)es$
2n matters o& spae poli7, I 6a'e bene&ited &rom dis8ssions (it6 ot6er members o& t6e board o&
diretors o& 36e 0lanetar7 Soiet7, espeiall7 Br8e 58rra7, .o8is %riedman, Norman ,8)8stine, >oe
-7an, and t6e late 36omas 2$ 0aine$ !e'oted to t6e eCploration o& t6e Solar S7stem, t6e sear6 &or
eCtraterrestrial li&e, and international missions b7 68mans to ot6er (orlds, it is t6e or)aniIation t6at most
nearl7 embodies t6e perspeti'e o& t6e present book$
36ose readers interested in more in&ormation on t6is nonpro&it or)aniIation, t6e lar)est spae-interest )ro8p
on Eart6, ma7 ontat:
34E 0.,NE3,-: S2+IE3:
65 N$ +atalina ,'en8e
0asadena, +, 91106
3el$: 1-;00-9 *2-.!S
,s is tr8e o& e'er7 book IA'e (ritten sine 1977, I am more )rate&8l t6an I an sa7 to ,nn !r87an &or
sear6in) ritiism and &8ndamental ontrib8tions bot6 on ontent and st7le$ In t6e 'astness o& spae and
t6e immensit7 o& time, it is still m7 Ho7 to s6are a planet and an epo6 (it6 ,nnie$
19;
-E%E-EN+ES
(a 5e< 7i"a"ion an) ugge"ion 5or 5ur"(er rea)ing)
PLANETARY EXPLORATION IN GENERAL:
>$ Eell7 Beatt7 and ,ndre( +6aiken, editors, /(e 0e< Solar S$"em9 t6ird edition =+ambrid)e: +ambrid)e
1ni'ersit7 0ress, 1990<$
Eri +6aisson and Ste'e 55illan, A"ronom$ /o)a$ =En)le(ood +li&&s, N>: 0rentie 4all, 1993<$
Est6er +$ /oddard, editor, /(e Paper o5 -o;er" 13 %o))ar) =Ne( :ork: 5/ra(-4ill, 1970< =t6ree
'ol8mes<$
-onald /reele7, Plane"ar$ &an)7ape9 seond edition =Ne( :ork: +6apman and 4all, 1994<$
*illiam >$ Ea8&mann III, 8ni4ere9 &o8rt6 edition =Ne( :ork: *$ 4$ %reeman, 1993<$
4arr7 :$ 5S(een, >r$, S"ar)u" "o Plane" =Ne( :ork: St$ 5artinAs, 1994<$
-on 5iller and *illiam E$ 4artmann, /(e %ran) /our= A /ra4eler6 %ui)e "o "(e Solar S$"em9 re'ised edition
=Ne( :ork: *orkman, 1993<$
!a'id 5orrison, Exploring Plane"ar$ :orl) =Ne( :ork: Sienti&i ,merian Books, 1993<$
Br8e +$ 58rra7, Aourne$ "o "(e Plane" =Ne( :ork: *$*$ Norton, 19;9<$
>a7 5$ 0asa6o&&, A"ronom$= 2rom Ear"( "o "(e 8ni4ere =Ne( :ork: Sa8nders, 1993<$
+arl Sa)an, #omo =Ne( :ork: -andom 4o8se, 19;0<$
Eonstantin 3siolko'sk7, /(e #all o5 "(e #omo =5oso(: %orei)n .an)8a)es 08blis6in) 4o8se, 1960< =En)lis6
translation<$
CHAPTER +, THE GREAT DEMOTIONS
>o6n !$ Barron and %rank >$ 3ipler, /(e An"(ropi7 #omologi7al Prin7iple =Ne( :ork: 2C&ord 1ni'ersit7 0ress,
19;6<$
,$ .inde, Par"i7le P($i7 an) !n5la"ionar$ #omolog$ =4ar(ood ,adem7 08blis6ers, 1991<$
B$ Ste(art, BSiene or ,nimismD,B #rea"ion CE4olu"ion9 'ol$ 1", no$ 1 =199"<, pp$ 1;-19$
Ste'en *einber), .ream o5 a 2inal /(eor$ =Ne( :ork: #inta)e Books, 1994<$
CHAPTER ,, A UNIVERSE NOT MADE FOR US
Brian ,pple7ard, 8n)er"an)ing "(e Preen"= S7ien7e an) "(e Soul o5 Mo)ern Man =.ondon: 0iadorN0an Books
.td$, 199"<$ 0assa)es K8oted appear, in order, on t6e &ollo(in) pa)es: "3", "7, 3", 19, 19, "7, 9, Ci', 137,
11"-113, "06, 10, "39, ;, ;$
>$ B$ B8r7, 1i"or$ o5 "(e Papa7$ in "(e 19"( #en"ur$ =Ne( :ork: S6oken, 1964<$ 4ere, as in man7 ot6er
so8res, t6e 1;64 S$lla;u is transribed into its Bpositi'eB &orm =e$)$, B!i'ine re'elation is per&etB< rat6er
t6an as part o& a list o& ondemned errors =B!i'ine re'elation is imper&etB<$
CHAPTER $, IS THERE INTELLIGENT LIFE ON EARTH(
+arl Sa)an, *$ -$ 36ompson, -obert +arlsson, !onald /8rnett, and +6arles 4ord, B, Sear6 &or .i&e on Eart6
&rom t6e %alileo Spaera&t,B 0a"ure9 4ol3 365 =1993<, pp$ 715-7"1$
CHAPTER -, AMONG THE MOONS OF SATURN
199
>onat6an .8nine, B!oes 3itan 4a'e 2eansD,B Ameri7an S7ien"i"9 4ol3 ;" =1994<, pp$ 134-144$
+arl Sa)an, *$ -eid 36ompson, and Bis68n N$ E6are, B3itan: , .aborator7 &or 0rebiolo)ial 2r)ani
+6emistr7,B A77oun" o5 #(emi7al -eear7(9 'ol$ "5 =199"<, pp$ ";6-"9"$
>$ *illiam S6op&, MaAor E4en" in "(e 1i"or$ o5 &i5e =Boston: >ones and Bartlett, 199"<$
CHAPTER #, THE FIRST NEW PLANET
Bernard +o6en, B/$ !$ +assini and t6e N8mber o& t6e 0lanets,B in 0a"ure9 Experimen" an) "(e S7ien7e9
3re'or .e'ere and *$ -$ S6ea, editors =!ordre6t: El8(er, 1990<$
CHAPTER *, AN AMERICAN SHIP AT THE FRONTIERS OF THE SOLAR
SYSTEM
Murmur o5 Ear"(9 +!--25 o& t6e Vo$ager interstellar reord, (it6 introd8tion b7 +arl Sa)an and
,nn !r87an =.os ,n)eles: *arner Ne( 5edia, 199"<, *N5 140""$
,leCander *olsIIan, B+on&irmation o& Eart6-5ass 0lanets 2rbitin) t6e 5illiseond 08lsar 0S-
B1"57S1",B Siene, 'ol$ "64 =1994<, pp$ 53;-54"$
CHAPTER !, THE GROUND MELTS
0eter +attermole, Venu= /(e %eologi7al Sur4e$ =Baltimore: >o6ns 4opkins 1ni'ersit7 0ress, 1994<$
0eter %ranis, Vol7anoe= A Plane"ar$ Perpe7"i4e =2C&ord: 2C&ord 1ni'ersit7 0ress, 1993<$
CHAPTER +, THE GIFT OF APOLLO
,ndre( +6aikin, A Man on "(e Moon =Ne( :ork: #ikin), 1994<$
5i6ael +ollins, &i5"o55 =Ne( :ork: /ro'e 0ress, 19;;<$
!aniel !e8dne7, B%or)in) 5issiles into Spaes6ips,B *orld Poli7$ Gournal9 4ol3 ", no$ " =Sprin) 19;5<,
pp$ "71-303$
4arr7 48rt, 2or All Mankin) =Ne( :ork: ,tlanti 5ont6l7 0ress, 19;;<$
-i6ard S$ .e(is, /(e Vo$age o5 Apollo= /(e Explora"ion o5 t6e Moon =Ne( :ork: T8adran)le, 1974<$
*alter ,$ 5!o8)all, /(e 1ea4en an) "(e Ear"(= A Poli"i7al 1i"or$ o5 "(e Spa7e Age =Ne( :ork:
Basi Books, 19;5<$
,lan S6ep6erd, !eke Sla7ton et al$, Moon(o" =,tlanta: 47perion, 1994<$
!on E$ *il6elms, 3o a -o7k$ Moon= A %eologi"6 1i"or$ or &unar Explora"ion =38son: 1ni'ersit7 o&
,riIona 0ress, 1993<$
CHAPTER ,, EXPLORING OTHER WORLDS AND PROTECTING THIS ONE
Ee'in *$ Eelle7, editor, /(e 1ome Plane" =-eadin), 5,: ,ddison*esle7, 19;;<$
+arl Sa)an and -i6ard 38ro, A Pa"( :(ere 0o Man /(oug("= 0u7lear :in"er an) "(e En) o5 "(e
Arm
-a7e =Ne( :ork: -andom 4o8se, 1990<$
-i6ard 38ro, Ear"( 8n)er Siege= Air Pollu"ion an) %lo;al #(ange =Ne( :ork: 2C&ord 1ni'ersit7
0ress, in press<$
CHAPTER $, THE GATES OF THE WONDER WORLD OPEN
#itor -$ Baker, /(e #(annel o5 Mar =,8stin: 1ni'ersit7 o& 3eCas 0ress, 19;"<$
5i6ael 4$ +arr, /(e Sur5a7e o5 Mar =Ne( 4a'en: :ale 1ni'ersit7 0ress, 19;1<$
4$ 4$ Eie&&er, B$ 5$ >akosk7, +$ *$ Sn7der, and 5$ S$ 5att6e(s, editors, Mar =38son: 1ni'ersit7 o& ,riIona
0ress, 199"<$
>o6n Noble *il&ord, Mar >e7kon= /(e M$"erie9 "(e #(allenge9 "(e Expe7"a"ion o5 Our 0ex" %rea"
A)4en"ure in Spa7e =Ne( :ork: Enop&, 1990<$
CHAPTER #, THE MARSH OF CAMARINA
+lark -$ +6apman and !a'id 5orrison, BImpats on t6e Eart6 b7 ,steroids and +omets: ,ssessin) t6e 4aIard,B
0a"ure9 4ol3 367 =1994<, pp$ 3340$
"00
,$ *$ 4arris, /$ +ana'an, +$ Sa)an, and S$ >$ 2stro, B36e !e&letion !ilemma: 1se 's$ 5is8se o&
3e6nolo)ies
&or ,'oidin) Interplanetar7 +ollision 4aIards,B in 1a+ar) .ue "o A"eroi) an) #ome"9 3$ /e6rels,
editor =38son: 1ni'ersit7 o& ,riIona 0ress, 1994<$
>o6n S$ .e(is and -8t6 ,$ .e(is, Spa7e -eour7e= >reaking "(e >on) o5 Ear"( =Ne( :ork: +ol8mbia
1ni'ersit7 0ress, 19;7<$
+$ Sa)an and S$ >$ 2stro, B.on)--an)e +onseK8enes o& Interplanetar7 +ollision 4aIards,B !ue in
S7ien7e an)
/e7(nolog$ =S8mmer 1994<, pp$ 67-7"$
CHAPTER *, REMAKING THE PLANETS
>$ !$ Bernal, /(e :orl)9 "(e 2le(9 an) "(e .e4il =Bloomin)ton, IN: Indiana 1ni'ersit7 0ress, 1969? &irst edition,
19"9<$
>ames B$ 0ollak and +arl Sa)an, B0lanetar7 En)ineerin),B in >$ .e(is and 5$ 5att6e(s, editors, 0ear-Ear"(
-eour7e =38son: 1ni'ersit7 o& ,riIona 0ress, 199"<$
CHAPTER !%, DARKNESS
%rank !rake and !a'a Sobel, ! An$one Ou" /(ereE =Ne( :ork: !elaorte, 199"<$
0a8l 4oro(itI and +arl Sa)an, B0roHet 5E3,: , %i'e-:ear ,ll-Sk7 Narro(band -adio Sear6 &or
ECtraterrestrial Intelli)ene,B A"rop($i7al Gournal9 'ol$ 415 =199"<, pp$ "1;-"35$
36omas -$ 5!ono8)6, /(e Sear7( 5or Ex"ra"erre"rial !n"elligen7e =Ne( :ork: >o6n *ile7 and Sons,
19;7<$
+arl Sa)an, #on"a7"= A 0o4el =Ne( :ork: Simon and S68ster, 19;5< $
CHAPTER !, TO THE SKY.
>$ -i6ard /ott III, BImpliations o& t6e +opernian 0riniple &or 28r %8t8re 0rospets,B 0a"ure9 4ol3 "63 =1993<,
pp$ 315-319$
CHAPTER !!, TIPTOEING THROUGH THE MILKY WAY
I$ ,$ +ra(&ord, BInterstellar 3ra'el: , -e'ie( &or ,stronomers,B Iuar"erl$ Gournal o5 "(e -o$al A"ronomi7al
So7ie"$9 4ol3 '1 =1990<, p$ 377$
I$ ,$ +ra(&ord, BSpae, *orld /o'ernment, and V36e End o& 4istor7,A HGournal o5 "(e >ri"i( !n"erplane"ar$
So7ie"$9 'ol$ 46 =1993<, pp$ 415-4"0$
%reeman >$ !7son, /(e :orl)9 "(e 2le(9 an) "(e .e4il =.ondon: Birkbek +olle)e, 197"<$
Ben -$ %inne7 and Eri 5$ >ones, editors, !n"er"ellar Migra"ion an) "(e 1uman Experien7e =Berkele7:
1ni'ersit7 o& +ali&ornia 0ress, 19;5<$
%ranis %8k87ama, /(e En) o5 1i"or$ an) "(e &a" Man =Ne( :ork: 36e %ree 0ress, 199"<$
+6arles .ind6olm, #(arima =2C&ord: Blak(ell, 1990<$ 36e omment on t6e need &or a "elo i in t6is
book$
E8)ene %$ 5allo'e and /re)or7 .$ 5atlo&&, /(e S"ar5lig(" 1an);ook =Ne( :ork: >o6n *ile7 and Sons, 19;9<$
+arl Sa)an and ,nn !r87an, #ome" =Ne( :ork: -andom 4o8se, 19;5<$
"01