Vol. 20 No.

2 22 January 1998
pages 24-27 | 5728 words
larger | smaller
Wy any!"ng# Wy !"s#
$ere% &ar'"!
Wy does !e (n")erse e*"s!# +ere are !wo ,ues!"ons ere. -"rs!. wy "s !ere a (n")erse a! all#
/! m"g! a)e 0een !rue !a! no!"ng e)er e*"s!ed1 no l")"ng 0e"ngs. no s!ars. no a!oms. no! e)en
spa2e or !"me. Wen we !"n% a0ou! !"s poss"0"l"!y. "! 2an seem as!on"s"ng !a! any!"ng e*"s!s.
3e2ond. wy does this (n")erse e*"s!# +"ngs m"g! a)e 0een. "n 2oun!less ways. d"''eren!. 3o
wy "s !e (n")erse as "! "s#
+ese ,ues!"ons. some 0el"e)e. may a)e 2ausal answers. 3uppose '"rs! !a! !e (n")erse as
always e*"s!ed. 3ome 0el"e)e !a!. "' all e)en!s were 2aused 0y earl"er e)en!s. e)ery!"ng would
0e e*pla"ned. +a!. owe)er. "s no! so. 4)en an "n'"n"!e ser"es o' e)en!s 2anno! e*pla"n "!sel'. We
2ould as% wy !"s ser"es o22urred. ra!er !an some o!er ser"es. or no ser"es. 5' !e suppor!ers
o' !e 3!eady 3!a!e +eory. some wel2omed wa! !ey !oo% !o 0e !"s !eory6s a!e"s!"2
"mpl"2a!"ons. +ey assumed !a!. "' !e (n")erse ad no 0eg"nn"ng. !ere would 0e no!"ng 'or a
7rea!or !o e*pla"n. 8u! !ere would s!"ll 0e an e!ernal (n")erse !o e*pla"n.
3uppose ne*! !a! !e (n")erse "s no! e!ernal. s"n2e no!"ng pre2eded !e 8"g 8ang. +a! '"rs!
e)en!. some pys"2"s!s sugges!. may a)e o0eyed !e laws o' ,uan!um me2an"2s. 0y 0e"ng a
random 'lu2!ua!"on "n a )a2uum. +"s would 2ausally e*pla"n. !ey say. ow !e (n")erse 2ame
"n!o e*"s!en2e ou! o' no!"ng. 8u! wa! pys"2"s!s 2all a )a2uum "sn6! really no!"ng. We 2an as%
wy "! e*"s!s. and as !e po!en!"al"!"es "! does. /n 9aw%"ng6s prase. :Wa! 0rea!es '"re "n!o !e
e,ua!"ons#6
3"m"lar remar%s apply !o all sugges!"ons o' !ese %"nds. +ere 2ould no! 0e a 2ausal e*plana!"on
o' wy !e (n")erse e*"s!s. wy !ere are any laws o' na!ure. or wy !ese laws are as !ey are.
Nor would "! ma%e a d"''eren2e "' !ere "s a ;od. wo 2aused !e res! o' !e (n")erse !o e*"s!.
+ere 2ould no! 0e a 2ausal e*plana!"on o' wy ;od e*"s!s.
<any people a)e assumed !a!. s"n2e !ese ,ues!"ons 2anno! a)e 2ausal answers. !ey 2anno!
a)e any answers. 3ome !ere'ore d"sm"ss !ese ,ues!"ons. !"n%"ng !em no! wor!
2ons"der"ng. 5!ers 2on2lude !a! !ey do no! ma%e sense. +ey assume !a!. as W"!!gens!e"n
wro!e. :dou0! 2an e*"s! only were !ere "s a ,ues!"on= and a ,ues!"on only were !ere "s an
answer.6
+ese assump!"ons are all. / 0el"e)e. m"s!a%en. 4)en "' !ese ,ues!"ons 2ould no! a)e answers.
!ey would s!"ll ma%e sense. and !ey would s!"ll 0e wor! 2ons"der"ng. / am rem"nded ere o'
!e aes!e!"2 2a!egory o' !e su0l"me. as appl"ed !o !e "ges! moun!a"ns. rag"ng o2eans. !e
n"g! s%y. !e "n!er"ors o' some 2a!edrals. and o!er !"ngs !a! are superuman. awesome.
l"m"!less. No ,ues!"on "s more su0l"me !an wy !ere "s a (n")erse1 wy !ere "s any!"ng
ra!er !an no!"ng. Nor sould we assume !a! answers !o !"s ,ues!"on mus! 0e 2ausal. >nd.
e)en "' real"!y 2anno! 0e 'ully e*pla"ned. we may s!"ll ma%e progress. s"n2e wa! "s "ne*pl"2a0le
may 0e2ome less 0a''l"ng !an "! now seems.
5ne apparen! 'a2! a0ou! real"!y as re2en!ly 0een mu2 d"s2ussed. <any pys"2"s!s 0el"e)e !a!.
'or l"'e !o 0e poss"0le. )ar"ous 'ea!ures o' !e (n")erse mus! 0e almos! pre2"sely as !ey are. >s
one e*ample. we 2an !a%e !e "n"!"al 2ond"!"ons "n !e 8"g 8ang. /' !ese 2ond"!"ons ad 0een
more !an )ery sl"g!ly d"''eren!. !ese pys"2"s!s 2la"m. !e (n")erse would no! a)e ad !e
2omple*"!y !a! allows l")"ng 0e"ngs !o e*"s!. Wy were !ese 2ond"!"ons so pre2"sely r"g!#?@A
3ome say1 :/' !ey ad no! 0een r"g!. we 2ouldn6! e)en as% !"s ,ues!"on.6 8u! !a! "s no answer.
/! 2ould 0e 0a''l"ng ow we sur)")ed some 2ras e)en !oug. "' we adn6!. we 2ould no! 0e
0a''led.
5!ers say1 :+ere ad !o 0e some "n"!"al 2ond"!"ons. and !e 2ond"!"ons !a! ma%e l"'e poss"0le
were as l"%ely as any o!ers. 3o !ere "s no!"ng !o 0e e*pla"ned.6 +o see wa! "s wrong w"! !"s
reply. we mus! d"s!"ngu"s !wo %"nds o' 2ase. 3uppose '"rs! !a!. wen some rad"o !eles2ope "s
a"med a! mos! po"n!s "n spa2e. "! re2ords a random se,uen2e o' "n2om"ng wa)es. +ere m"g! 0e
no!"ng ere !a! needed !o 0e e*pla"ned. 3uppose ne*! !a!. wen !e !eles2ope "s a"med "n one
d"re2!"on. "! re2ords a se,uen2e o' wa)es wose pulses ma!2 !e num0er B. "n 0"nary no!a!"on.
!o !e '"rs! !en !ousand d"g"!s. +a! par!"2ular num0er "s. "n one sense. Cus! as l"%ely as any
o!er. 8u! !ere would 0e some!"ng ere !a! needed !o 0e e*pla"ned. +oug ea2 long
num0er "s un",ue. only a )ery 'ew are. l"%e B. ma!ema!"2ally spe2"al. Wa! would need !o 0e
e*pla"ned "s wy !"s se,uen2e o' wa)es e*a2!ly ma!2ed su2 a spe2"al num0er. +oug !"s
ma!2"ng m"g! 0e a 2o"n2"den2e. w"2 ad 0een randomly produ2ed. !a! would 0e mos!
unl"%ely. We 2ould 0e almos! 2er!a"n !a! !ese wa)es ad 0een produ2ed 0y some %"nd o'
"n!ell"gen2e.
5n !e )"ew !a! we are now 2ons"der"ng. s"n2e any se,uen2e o' wa)es "s as l"%ely as any o!er.
!ere would 0e no!"ng !o 0e e*pla"ned. /' we a22ep!ed !"s )"ew. "n!ell"gen! 0e"ngs elsewere "n
spa2e would no! 0e a0le !o 2ommun"2a!e w"! us. s"n2e we would "gnore !e"r messages. Nor
2ould ;od re)eal "msel'. 3uppose !a!. w"! an op!"2al !eles2ope. we saw a d"s!an! pa!!ern o'
s!ars w"2 spelled ou! "n 9e0rew s2r"p! !e '"rs! 2ap!er o' ;enes"s. >22ord"ng !o !"s )"ew. !"s
pa!!ern o' s!ars would no! need !o 0e e*pla"ned. +a! "s 2learly 'alse.
9ere "s ano!er analogy. 3uppose '"rs! !a!. o' a !ousand people 'a2"ng dea!. only one 2an 0e
res2ued. /' !ere "s a lo!!ery !o p"2% !"s one sur)")or. and / w"n. / would 0e )ery lu2%y. 8u! !ere
m"g! 0e no!"ng ere !a! needed !o 0e e*pla"ned. 3omeone ad !o w"n. and wy no! me#
7ons"der ne*! ano!er lo!!ery. (nless my gaoler p"2%s !e longes! o' a !ousand s!raws. / sall 0e
so!. /' my gaoler p"2%s !a! s!raw. !ere would 0e some!"ng !o 0e e*pla"ned. /! would no! 0e
enoug !o say. :+"s resul! was as l"%ely as any o!er.6 /n !e '"rs! lo!!ery. no!"ng spe2"al
appened1 wa!e)er !e resul!. someone6s l"'e would 0e sa)ed. /n !"s se2ond lo!!ery. !e resul!
was spe2"al. s"n2e. o' !e !ousand poss"0le resul!s. only one would sa)e a l"'e. Wy was !"s
spe2"al resul! also wa! appened# +oug !"s m"g! 0e a 2o"n2"den2e. !e 2an2e o' !a! "s
only one "n a !ousand. / 2ould 0e almos! 2er!a"n !a!. l"%e $os!oe)s%y6s mo2% e*e2u!"on. !"s
lo!!ery was r"gged.
+e 8"g 8ang. "! seems. was l"%e !"s se2ond lo!!ery. -or l"'e !o 0e poss"0le. !e "n"!"al 2ond"!"ons
ad !o 0e sele2!ed w"! grea! a22ura2y. +"s appearance of fine-tuning. as some 2all "!. also
needs !o 0e e*pla"ned.
/! may 0e o0Ce2!ed !a!. "n regard"ng 2ond"!"ons as spe2"al "' !ey allow 'or l"'e. we unCus!"'"a0ly
assume our own "mpor!an2e. 8u! l"'e "s spe2"al. "' only 0e2ause o' "!s 2omple*"!y. >n
ear!worm6s 0ra"n "s more 2ompl"2a!ed !an a l"'eless gala*y. Nor "s "! only l"'e !a! re,u"res !"s
'"ne-!un"ng. /' !e 8"g 8ang6s "n"!"al 2ond"!"ons ad no! 0een almos! pre2"sely as !ey were. !e
(n")erse would a)e e"!er almos! "ns!an!ly re2ollapsed. or e*panded so 'as!. and w"! par!"2les
so !"nly spread. !a! no! e)en s!ars or ea)y elemen!s 2ould a)e 'ormed. +a! "s enoug !o
ma%e !ese 2ond"!"ons )ery spe2"al.
/! may ne*! 0e o0Ce2!ed !a! !ese 2ond"!"ons 2anno! 0e 2la"med !o 0e "mpro0a0le. s"n2e su2 a
2la"m re,u"res a s!a!"s!"2al 0as"s. and !ere "s only one (n")erse. /' we were 2ons"der"ng all
2on2e")a0le (n")erses. "! would "ndeed 0e "mplaus"0le !o ma%e Cudgmen!s o' s!a!"s!"2al
pro0a0"l"!y. 8u! our ,ues!"on "s mu2 narrower. We are as%"ng wa! would a)e appened "'.
w"! !e same laws o' na!ure. !e "n"!"al 2ond"!"ons ad 0een d"''eren!. +a! pro)"des !e 0as"s
'or a s!a!"s!"2al Cudgmen!. +ere "s a range o' )alues !a! !ese 2ond"!"ons m"g! a)e ad. and
pys"2"s!s 2an wor% ou! "n wa! propor!"on o' !"s range !e resul!"ng (n")erse 2ould a)e
2on!a"ned s!ars. ea)y elemen!s and l"'e.
+"s propor!"on. "! "s 2la"med. "s e*!remely small. 5' !e range o' poss"0le "n"!"al 2ond"!"ons.
'ewer !an one "n a 0"ll"on 0"ll"on would a)e produ2ed a (n")erse w"! !e 2omple*"!y !a!
allows 'or l"'e. /' !"s 2la"m "s !rue. as / sall ere assume. !ere "s some!"ng !a! 2r"es ou! !o 0e
e*pla"ned. Wy was one o' !"s !"ny se! also !e one !a! a2!ually o0!a"ned#
5n one )"ew. !"s was a mere 2o"n2"den2e. +a! "s 2on2e")a0le. s"n2e 2o"n2"den2es appen. 8u!
!"s )"ew "s ard !o 0el"e)e. s"n2e. "' "! were !rue. !e 2an2e o' !"s 2o"n2"den2e o22urr"ng would
0e 0elow one "n a 0"ll"on 0"ll"on.
5!ers say1 :+e 8"g 8ang was '"ne-!uned. /n 2rea!"ng !e (n")erse. ;od 2ose !o ma%e l"'e
poss"0le.6 >!e"s!s may reCe2! !"s answer. !"n%"ng "! "mpro0a0le !a! ;od e*"s!s. 8u! !"s
pro0a0"l"!y 2anno! 0e as low as one "n a 0"ll"on 0"ll"on. 3o e)en a!e"s!s sould adm"! !a!. o'
!ese !wo answers !o our ,ues!"on. !e one !a! "n)o%es ;od "s more l"%ely !o 0e !rue.
+"s reason"ng re)")es one o' !e !rad"!"onal argumen!s 'or 0el"e' "n ;od. /n "!s s!ronges! 'orm.
!"s argumen! appealed !o !e many 'ea!ures o' an"mals. su2 as eyes or w"ngs. !a! loo% as "'
!ey a)e 0een des"gned. &aley6s appeal !o su2 'ea!ures mu2 "mpressed $arw"n wen e was
young. $arw"n la!er underm"ned !"s 'orm o' !e argumen!. s"n2e e)olu!"on 2an e*pla"n !"s
appearan2e o' des"gn. 8u! e)olu!"on 2anno! e*pla"n !e appearan2e o' '"ne-!un"ng "n !e 8"g
8ang.
+"s argumen!6s appeal !o pro0a0"l"!"es 2an 0e 2allenged "n a d"''eren! way. /n 2la"m"ng "! !o 0e
mos! "mpro0a0le !a! !"s '"ne-!un"ng was a 2o"n2"den2e. !e argumen! assumes !a!. o' !e
poss"0le "n"!"al 2ond"!"ons "n !e 8"g 8ang. ea2 was e,ually l"%ely !o o0!a"n. +a! assump!"on
may 0e m"s!a%en. +e 2ond"!"ons !a! allow 'or 2omple*"!y and l"'e may a)e 0een. 2ompared
w"! all !e o!ers. mu2 more l"%ely !o o0!a"n. &eraps !ey were e)en 2er!a"n !o o0!a"n.
+o answer !"s o0Ce2!"on. we mus! 0roaden !"s argumen!6s 2on2lus"on. /' !ese l"'e-allow"ng
2ond"!"ons were e"!er )ery l"%ely or 2er!a"n !o o0!a"n. !en D as !e argumen! 2la"ms D "! would
0e no 2o"n2"den2e !a! !e (n")erse allows 'or 2omple*"!y and l"'e. 8u! !"s '"ne-!un"ng m"g!
a)e 0een !e wor%. no! o' some e*"s!"ng 0e"ng. 0u! o' some "mpersonal 'or2e. or 'undamen!al
law. +a! "s wa! some !e"s!s 0el"e)e ;od !o 0e.
> s!ronger 2allenge !o !"s argumen! 2omes 'rom a d"''eren! way o' e*pla"n"ng !e appearan2e
o' '"ne-!un"ng. 7ons"der '"rs! a s"m"lar ,ues!"on. -or l"'e !o 0e poss"0le on 4ar!. many o' 4ar!6s
'ea!ures a)e !o 0e 2lose !o 0e"ng as !ey are. +e 4ar!6s a)"ng su2 'ea!ures. "! m"g! 0e
2la"med. "s unl"%ely !o 0e a 2o"n2"den2e. and sould !ere'ore 0e regarded as ;od6s wor%. 8u!
su2 an argumen! would 0e wea%. +e (n")erse. we 2an reasona0ly 0el"e)e. 2on!a"ns many
plane!s. w"! )ary"ng 2ond"!"ons. We sould e*pe2! !a!. on a 'ew o' !ese plane!s. 2ond"!"ons
would 0e Cus! r"g! 'or l"'e. Nor "s "! surpr"s"ng !a! we l")e on one o' !ese 'ew.
+"ngs are d"''eren!. we may assume. w"! !e appearan2e o' '"ne-!un"ng "n !e 8"g 8ang. W"le
!ere are l"%ely !o 0e many o!er plane!s. !ere "s only one (n")erse. 8u! !"s d"''eren2e may 0e
less !an "! seems. 3ome pys"2"s!s sugges! !a! !e o0ser)a0le (n")erse "s only one ou! o' many
d"''eren! worlds. w"2 are all e,ually par!s o' real"!y. >22ord"ng !o one su2 )"ew. !e o!er
worlds are rela!ed !o ours "n a way !a! sol)es some o' !e mys!er"es o' ,uan!um pys"2s. 5n !e
d"''eren! and s"mpler )"ew !a! "s rele)an! ere. !e o!er worlds a)e !e same 'undamen!al
laws o' na!ure as our world. and !ey are produ2ed 0y 8"g 8angs !a! are 0roadly s"m"lar. e*2ep!
"n a)"ng d"''eren! "n"!"al 2ond"!"ons.
5n !"s Many Worlds Hypothesis. !ere "s no need 'or '"ne-!un"ng. /' !ere were enoug 8"g
8angs. we sould e*pe2! !a!. "n a 'ew o' !em. 2ond"!"ons would 0e Cus! r"g! !o allow 'or
2omple*"!y and l"'e= and "! would 0e no surpr"se !a! our 8"g 8ang was one o' !ese 'ew. +o
"llus!ra!e !"s po"n!. we 2an re)"se my se2ond lo!!ery. 3uppose my gaoler p"2%s a s!raw. no! on2e
0u! many !"mes. +a! would e*pla"n "s manag"ng. on2e. !o p"2% !e longes! s!raw. w"!ou! !a!6s
0e"ng an e*!reme 2o"n2"den2e. or !"s lo!!ery6s 0e"ng r"gged.
5n mos! )ers"ons o' !e <any Worlds 9ypo!es"s. !ese many worlds are no!. e*2ep! !roug
!e"r or"g"ns. 2ausally rela!ed. 3ome o0Ce2! !a!. s"n2e our world 2ould no! 0e 2ausally a''e2!ed 0y
su2 o!er worlds. we 2an a)e no e)"den2e 'or !e"r e*"s!en2e. and 2an !ere'ore a)e no reason
!o 0el"e)e "n !em. 8u! we do a)e su2 a reason. s"n2e !e"r e*"s!en2e would e*pla"n an
o!erw"se puEEl"ng 'ea!ure o' our world1 !e appearan2e o' '"ne-!un"ng.
5' !ese !wo ways !o e*pla"n !"s appearan2e. w"2 "s 0e!!er# 7ompared w"! 0el"e' "n ;od. !e
<any Worlds 9ypo!es"s "s more 2au!"ous. s"n2e "!s 2la"m "s merely !a! !ere "s more o' !e
%"nd o' real"!y !a! we 2an o0ser)e around us. 8u! ;od6s e*"s!en2e as 0een 2la"med !o 0e
"n!r"ns"2ally more pro0a0le. >22ord"ng !o mos! !e"s!s. ;od "s a 0e"ng wo "s omn"po!en!.
omn"s2"en! and wolly good. +e un2aused e*"s!en2e o' su2 a 0e"ng as 0een 2la"med !o 0e
s"mpler. and less ar0"!rary. !an !e un2aused e*"s!en2e o' many "gly 2ompl"2a!ed worlds. >nd
s"mpler ypo!eses. many s2"en!"s!s assume. are more l"%ely !o 0e !rue.
/' su2 a ;od e*"s!s. owe)er. o!er 'ea!ures o' our world 0e2ome ard !o e*pla"n. /! may no! 0e
surpr"s"ng !a! ;od 2ose !o ma%e l"'e poss"0le. 8u! !e laws o' na!ure 2ould a)e 0een d"''eren!.
so !ere are many poss"0le worlds !a! would a)e 2on!a"ned l"'e. /! "s ard !o unders!and wy.
ou! o' all !ese poss"0"l"!"es. ;od 2ose !o 2rea!e our world. Wa! "s mos! 0a''l"ng "s !e pro0lem
o' e)"l. +ere appears !o 0e su''er"ng w"2 any good person. %now"ng !e !ru!. would a)e
pre)en!ed "' e 2ould. /' !ere "s su2 su''er"ng. !ere 2anno! 0e a ;od wo "s omn"po!en!.
omn"s2"en! and wolly good.
+o !"s pro0lem. !e"s!s a)e proposed se)eral solu!"ons. 3ome sugges! !a! ;od "s no!
omn"po!en!. or no! wolly good. 5!ers sugges! !a! undeser)ed su''er"ng "s no!. as "! seems.
0ad. or !a! ;od 2ould no! pre)en! su2 su''er"ng w"!ou! ma%"ng !e (n")erse. as a wole. less
good.
We mus! "gnore !ese sugges!"ons ere. s"n2e we a)e larger ,ues!"ons !o 2ons"der. / 0egan 0y
as%"ng wy !"ngs are as !ey are. 8e'ore re!urn"ng !o !a! ,ues!"on. we sould as% how !"ngs
are. +ere "s mu2 a0ou! our world !a! we a)e no! d"s2o)ered. >nd. Cus! as !ere may 0e o!er
worlds !a! are l"%e ours. !ere may 0e worlds !a! are )ery d"''eren!.
/! w"ll elp !o d"s!"ngu"s !wo %"nds o' poss"0"l"!y. Cosmic poss"0"l"!"es 2o)er e)ery!"ng !a! e)er
e*"s!s. and are !e d"''eren! ways !a! !e wole o' real"!y m"g! 0e. 5nly one su2 poss"0"l"!y
2an 0e a2!ual. or !e one !a! o0!a"ns. Local poss"0"l"!"es are !e d"''eren! ways !a! some par! o'
real"!y. or lo2al world. m"g! 0e. /' some lo2al world e*"s!s. !a! lea)es "! open we!er o!er
worlds e*"s!.
5ne 2osm"2 poss"0"l"!y "s. rougly. !a! e)ery poss"0le lo2al world e*"s!s. +"s we 2an 2all !e All
Worlds Hypothesis. >no!er poss"0"l"!y. w"2 m"g! a)e o0!a"ned. "s !a! no!"ng e)er e*"s!s.
+"s we 2an 2all !e Null Possibility. /n ea2 o' !e rema"n"ng poss"0"l"!"es. !e num0er o' worlds
!a! e*"s! "s 0e!ween none and all. +ere are 2oun!less o' !ese poss"0"l"!"es. s"n2e !ere are
2oun!less 2om0"na!"ons o' par!"2ular poss"0le lo2al worlds.
5' !ese d"''eren! 2osm"2 poss"0"l"!"es. one mus! o0!a"n. and only one 2an o0!a"n. 3o we a)e !wo
,ues!"ons1 w"2 o0!a"ns. and wy# +ese ,ues!"ons are 2onne2!ed. /' some poss"0"l"!y would 0e
eas"er !o e*pla"n. we a)e more reason !o 0el"e)e !a! !"s poss"0"l"!y o0!a"ns. +"s "s ow. ra!er
!an 0el"e)"ng "n only one 8"g 8ang. we a)e more reason !o 0el"e)e "n many. We!er we
0el"e)e "n one or many. we a)e !e ,ues!"on wy any 8"g 8ang as o22urred. +oug !"s
,ues!"on "s ard. !e o22urren2e o' many 8"g 8angs "s no! more puEEl"ng !an !e o22urren2e o'
only one. <os! %"nds o' !"ng. or e)en!. a)e many "ns!an2es. We also a)e !e ,ues!"on wy. "n
!e 8"g 8ang !a! produ2ed our world. !e "n"!"al 2ond"!"ons allowed 'or 2omple*"!y and l"'e. /'
!ere as 0een only one 8"g 8ang. !"s 'a2! "s also ard !o e*pla"n. s"n2e "! "s mos! unl"%ely !a!
!ese 2ond"!"ons merely appened !o 0e r"g!. /'. "ns!ead. !ere a)e 0een many 8"g 8angs. !"s
'a2! "s easy !o e*pla"n. s"n2e "! "s l"%e !e 'a2! !a!. among 2oun!less plane!s. !ere are some
wose 2ond"!"ons allow 'or l"'e. 3"n2e 0el"e' "n many 8"g 8angs lea)es less !a! "s une*pla"ned. "!
"s !e 0e!!er )"ew.
/' some 2osm"2 poss"0"l"!"es would 0e less puEEl"ng !an o!ers. 0e2ause !e"r o0!a"n"ng would
lea)e less !o 0e e*pla"ned. "s !ere some poss"0"l"!y wose o0!a"n"ng would 0e "n no way
puEEl"ng#
7ons"der '"rs! !e Null &oss"0"l"!y. "n w"2 no!"ng e)er e*"s!s. +o "mag"ne !"s poss"0"l"!y. "!
may elp !o suppose '"rs!. !a! all !a! e)er e*"s!ed was a s"ngle a!om. We !en "mag"ne !a! e)en
!"s a!om ne)er e*"s!ed.
3ome a)e 2la"med !a!. "' !ere ad ne)er 0een any!"ng. !ere wouldn6! a)e 0een any!"ng !o
0e e*pla"ned. 8u! !a! "s no! so. Wen we "mag"ne ow !"ngs would a)e 0een "' no!"ng ad
e)er e*"s!ed. wa! we sould "mag"ne away are su2 !"ngs as l")"ng 0e"ngs. s!ars and a!oms.
+ere would s!"ll a)e 0een )ar"ous !ru!s. su2 as !e !ru! !a! !ere were no s!ars or a!oms.
or !a! 9 "s d")"s"0le 0y F. We 2an as% wy !ese !"ngs would a)e 0een !rue. >nd su2
,ues!"ons may a)e answers. +us we 2an e*pla"n wy. e)en "' no!"ng ad e)er e*"s!ed. 9 would
s!"ll a)e 0een d")"s"0le 0y F. +ere "s no 2on2e")a0le al!erna!")e. >nd we 2an e*pla"n wy !ere
would a)e 0een no su2 !"ngs as "mma!er"al ma!!er. or sper"2al 2u0es. 3u2 !"ngs are
log"2ally "mposs"0le. 8u! wy would nothing a)e e*"s!ed# Wy would !ere a)e 0een no s!ars
or a!oms. no p"losopers or 0lue0ell woods#
We sould no! 2la"m !a!. "' no!"ng ad e)er e*"s!ed. !ere would a)e 0een no!"ng !o 0e
e*pla"ned. 8u! we 2an 2la"m some!"ng less. 5' all !e glo0al poss"0"l"!"es. !e Null &oss"0"l"!y
would a)e needed !e leas! e*plana!"on. >s Ge"0n"E po"n!ed ou!. "! "s mu2 !e s"mples!. and
!e leas! ar0"!rary. >nd "! "s !e eas"es! !o unders!and. /! 2an seem mys!er"ous. 'or e*ample. ow
!"ngs 2ould e*"s! w"!ou! !e"r e*"s!en2e a)"ng some 2ause. 0u! !ere 2anno! 0e a 2ausal
e*plana!"on o' wy !e wole (n")erse. or ;od. e*"s!s. +e Null &oss"0"l"!y ra"ses no su2
pro0lem. /' no!"ng ad e)er e*"s!ed. !a! s!a!e o' a''a"rs would no! a)e needed !o 0e 2aused.
Heal"!y. owe)er. does no! !a%e "!s leas! puEEl"ng 'orm. /n some way or o!er. a (n")erse as
managed !o e*"s!. +a! "s wa! 2an !a%e one6s 0rea! away. >s W"!!gens!e"n wro!e. :no! ow !e
world "s. "s !e mys!"2al. 0u! that "! "s.6 5r. "n !e words o' a !"n%er as unmys!"2al as Ja2% 3mar!1
:+a! any!"ng sould e*"s! a! all does seem !o me a ma!!er 'or !e deepes! awe.6
7ons"der ne*! !e >ll Worlds 9ypo!es"s. "n w"2 e)ery poss"0le lo2al world e*"s!s. (nl"%e !e
Null &oss"0"l"!y. !"s may 0e ow !"ngs are. >nd "! may 0e !e ne*! leas! puEEl"ng poss"0"l"!y.
+"s ypo!es"s "s no! !e same as D !oug "! "n2ludes D !e <any Worlds 9ypo!es"s. 5n !a!
more 2au!"ous )"ew. many o!er worlds a)e !e same elemen!s as our world. and !e same
'undamen!al laws. and d"''er only "n su2 'ea!ures as !e"r 2ons!an!s and "n"!"al 2ond"!"ons. +e
>ll Worlds 9ypo!es"s 2o)ers e)ery 2on2e")a0le %"nd o' world. and mos! o' !ese o!er worlds
would a)e )ery d"''eren! elemen!s and laws.
/' all !ese worlds e*"s!. we 2an as% wy !ey do. 8u!. 2ompared w"! mos! o!er 2osm"2
poss"0"l"!"es. !e >ll Worlds 9ypo!es"s may lea)e less !a! "s une*pla"ned. -or e*ample.
wa!e)er !e num0er o' poss"0le worlds !a! e*"s!. we a)e !e ,ues!"on. :Wy !a! num0er#6
+"s ,ues!"on would a)e 0een leas! puEEl"ng "' !e num0er !a! e*"s!ed were none. and !e ne*!
leas! ar0"!rary poss"0"l"!y seems !o 0e !a! all !ese worlds e*"s!. W"! e)ery o!er 2osm"2
poss"0"l"!y. we a)e a 'ur!er ,ues!"on. /' ours "s !e only world. we 2an as%1 :5u! o' all !e
poss"0le worlds. wy "s !"s !e one !a! e*"s!s#6 5n any )ers"on o' !e <any Worlds 9ypo!es"s.
we a)e a s"m"lar ,ues!"on1 :Wy do Cus! !ese worlds e*"s!. w"! !ese elemen!s and laws#6 8u!.
"' all !ese worlds e*"s!. !ere "s no su2 'ur!er ,ues!"on.
/! may 0e o0Ce2!ed !a!. e)en "' all poss"0le lo2al worlds e*"s!. !a! does no! e*pla"n wy our
world "s as "! "s. 8u! !a! "s a m"s!a%e. /' all !ese worlds e*"s!. ea2 world "s as "! "s "n !e way "n
w"2 ea2 num0er "s as "! "s. We 2anno! sens"0ly as% wy 9 "s 9. Nor sould we as% wy our
world "s !e one "! "s1 wy "! "s this world. +a! would 0e l"%e as%"ng. :Wy are we wo we are#6.
or :Wy "s "! now !e !"me !a! "! "s#6 +ose are no! good ,ues!"ons.
+oug !e >ll Worlds 9ypo!es"s a)o"ds 2er!a"n ,ues!"ons. "! "s no! as s"mple. or un-ar0"!rary.
as !e Null &oss"0"l"!y. +ere may 0e no sarp d"s!"n2!"on 0e!ween worlds !a! are and are no!
poss"0le. /! "s un2lear wa! 2oun!s as a %"nd o' world. >nd. "' !ere are "n'"n"!ely many %"nds.
!ere "s a 2o"2e 0e!ween d"''eren! %"nds o' "n'"n"!y.
W"2e)er 2osm"2 poss"0"l"!y o0!a"ns. we 2an as% wy "! o0!a"ns. >ll !a! / a)e 2la"med so 'ar "s
!a!. w"! some poss"0"l"!"es. !"s ,ues!"on would 0e less puEEl"ng. Ge! us now as%1 2ould !"s
,ues!"on a)e an answer# <"g! !ere 0e a !eory !a! lea)es no!"ng une*pla"ned#
/! "s some!"mes 2la"med !a! ;od. or !e (n")erse. ma%e !emsel)es e*"s!. 8u! !"s 2anno! 0e
!rue. s"n2e !ese en!"!"es 2anno! do any!"ng unless !ey e*"s!.
5n a more "n!ell"g"0le )"ew. "! "s log"2ally ne2essary !a! ;od. or !e (n")erse. e*"s!. s"n2e !e
2la"m !a! !ey m"g! no! a)e e*"s!ed leads !o a 2on!rad"2!"on. 5n su2 a )"ew. !oug "! may
seem 2on2e")a0le !a! !ere m"g! ne)er a)e 0een any!"ng. !a! "s no! really log"2ally poss"0le.
3ome people e)en 2la"m !a! !ere may 0e only one 2oeren! 2osm"2 poss"0"l"!y. +us 4"ns!e"n
sugges!ed !a!. "' ;od 2rea!ed our world. e m"g! a)e ad no 2o"2e a0ou! w"2 world !o
2rea!e. /' su2 a )"ew were !rue. e)ery!"ng m"g! 0e e*pla"ned. Heal"!y m"g! 0e !e way "! "s
0e2ause !ere was no 2on2e")a0le al!erna!")e. 8u!. 'or reasons !a! a)e 0een o'!en g")en. we
2an reCe2! su2 )"ews.
7ons"der ne*! a ,u"!e d"''eren! )"ew. >22ord"ng !o &la!o. &lo!"nus and o!ers. !e (n")erse e*"s!s
0e2ause "!s e*"s!en2e "s good. 4)en "' we are 2on'"den! !a! we sould reCe2! !"s )"ew. "! "s wor!
as%"ng we!er "! ma%es sense. /' "! does. !a! may sugges! o!er poss"0"l"!"es.
+"s Axiarchic iew 2an !a%e a !e"s!"2 'orm. /! 2an 2la"m !a! ;od e*"s!s 0e2ause "s e*"s!en2e
"s good. and !a! !e res! o' !e (n")erse e*"s!s 0e2ause ;od 2aused "! !o e*"s!. 8u! "n !a!
e*plana!"on ;od. ,ua 7rea!or. "s redundan!. /' ;od 2an e*"s! 0e2ause "s e*"s!en2e "s good. so
2an !e wole (n")erse. +"s may 0e wy some !e"s!s reCe2! !e >*"ar2"2 V"ew. and "ns"s! !a!
;od6s e*"s!en2e "s a 0ru!e 'a2!. w"! no e*plana!"on.
/n "!s s"mples! 'orm. !"s )"ew ma%es !ree 2la"ms1 :I1J /! would 0e 0es! "' real"!y were a 2er!a"n
way. I2J Heal"!y "s !a! way. IFJ I1J e*pla"ns I2J.6 I1J "s an ord"nary e)alua!")e 2la"m. l"%e !e
2la"m !a! "! would 0e 0e!!er "' !ere was less su''er"ng. +e >*"ar2"2 V"ew assumes. / 0el"e)e
r"g!ly. !a! su2 2la"ms 2an 0e "n a s!rong sense !rue. I2J "s an ord"nary emp"r"2al or s2"en!"'"2
2la"m. !oug o' a sweep"ng %"nd. Wa! "s d"s!"n2!")e "n !"s )"ew "s 2la"m IFJ. a22ord"ng !o w"2
I1J e*pla"ns I2J.
7an we unders!and !"s !"rd 2la"m# +o 'o2us on !"s ,ues!"on. we sould 0r"e'ly "gnore !e
world6s e)"ls. and suspend our o!er dou0!s a0ou! 2la"ms I1J and I2J. We sould suppose !a!. as
Ge"0n"E 2la"med. !e 0es! poss"0le (n")erse e*"s!s. Would "! !en ma%e sense !o 2la"m !a! !"s
(n")erse e*"s!s because "! "s !e 0es!#
+a! use o' :0e2ause6. >*"ar2"s!s sould adm"!. 2anno! 0e eas"ly e*pla"ned. 8u! e)en ord"nary
2ausa!"on "s mys!er"ous. >! !e mos! 'undamen!al le)el. we a)e no "dea wy some e)en!s 2ause
o!ers= and "! "s ard !o e*pla"n wa! 2ausa!"on "s. +ere are. moreo)er. non-2ausal senses o'
:0e2ause6 and :wy6. as "n !e 2la"m !a! ;od e*"s!s 0e2ause "s e*"s!en2e "s log"2ally ne2essary.
We 2an unders!and !a! 2la"m. e)en "' we !"n% "! 'alse. +e >*"ar2"2 V"ew "s arder !o
unders!and. 8u! !a! "s no! surpr"s"ng. /' !ere "s some e*plana!"on o' !e wole o' real"!y. we
sould no! e*pe2! !"s e*plana!"on !o '"! nea!ly "n!o some 'am"l"ar 2a!egory. +"s e*!ra-ord"nary
,ues!"on may a)e an e*!ra-ord"nary answer. We sould reCe2! sugges!ed answers w"2 ma%e
no sense= 0u! we sould also !ry !o see wa! m"g! ma%e sense.
>*"ar2y m"g! 0e e*pressed as 'ollows. We are now suppos"ng !a!. o' all !e 2oun!less ways
!a! !e wole o' real"!y m"g! 0e. one "s 0o! !e )ery 0es!. and "s !e way !a! real"!y "s. 5n !e
>*"ar2"2 V"ew. that is no coincidence. +"s 2la"m. / 0el"e)e. ma%es sense. >nd. "' "! were no
2o"n2"den2e !a! !e 0es! way 'or real"!y !o 0e "s also !e way !a! real"!y "s. !a! m"g! suppor!
!e 'ur!er 2la"m !a! !"s was wy real"!y was !"s way.
+"s )"ew as one ad)an!age o)er !e more 'am"l"ar !e"s!"2 )"ew. >n appeal !o ;od 2anno!
e*pla"n wy !e (n")erse e*"s!s. s"n2e ;od would "msel' 0e par! o' !e (n")erse. or one o' !e
!"ngs !a! e*"s!. 3ome !e"s!s argue !a!. s"n2e no!"ng 2an e*"s! w"!ou! a 2ause. ;od. wo "s
!e -"rs! 7ause. mus! e*"s!. >s 32openauer o0Ce2!ed. !"s argumen!6s prem"se "s no! l"%e some
2a0dr")er wom !e"s!s are 'ree !o d"sm"ss on2e !ey a)e rea2ed !e"r des!"na!"on. +e
>*"ar2"2 V"ew appeals. no! !o an e*"s!"ng en!"!y. 0u! !o an e*plana!ory law. 3"n2e su2 a law
would no! "!sel' 0e par! o' !e (n")erse. "! m"g! e*pla"n wy !e (n")erse e*"s!s. and "s as good
as "! 2ould 0e. /' su2 a law go)erned real"!y. we 2ould s!"ll as% wy "! d"d. or wy !e >*"ar2"2
V"ew was !rue. 8u!. "n d"s2o)er"ng !"s law. we would a)e made some progress.
/! "s ard. owe)er. !o 0el"e)e !e >*"ar2"2 V"ew. /'. as "! seems. !ere "s mu2 po"n!less
su''er"ng. our world 2anno! 0e par! o' !e 0es! poss"0le (n")erse.
3ome >*"ar2"s!s 2la"m !a!. "' we reCe2! !e"r )"ew. we mus! regard our world6s e*"s!en2e as a
0ru!e 'a2!. s"n2e no o!er e*plana!"on 2ould ma%e sense. 8u! !a!. / 0el"e)e. "s no! so. /' we
a0s!ra2! 'rom !e op!"m"sm o' !e >*"ar2"2 V"ew. "!s 2la"ms are !ese1 :5' !e 2oun!less 2osm"2
poss"0"l"!"es. one 0o! as a )ery spe2"al 'ea!ure. and "s !e poss"0"l"!y !a! o0!a"ns. +a! "s no
2o"n2"den2e. +"s poss"0"l"!y o0!a"ns 0e2ause "! as !"s 'ea!ure.6 5!er )"ews 2an ma%e su2
2la"ms. +"s spe2"al 'ea!ure need no! 0e !a! o' 0e"ng 0es!. +us. on !e >ll Worlds 9ypo!es"s.
real"!y "s ma*"mal. or as 'ull as "! 2ould 0e. 3"m"larly. "' no!"ng ad e)er e*"s!ed. real"!y would
a)e 0een m"n"mal. or as emp!y as "! 2ould 0e. /' !e poss"0"l"!y !a! o0!a"ned were e"!er
ma*"mal or m"n"mal. !a! 'a2!. we m"g! 2la"m. would 0e mos! unl"%ely !o 0e a 2o"n2"den2e. >nd
!a! m"g! suppor! !e 'ur!er 2la"m !a! !"s poss"0"l"!y6s a)"ng !"s 'ea!ure would 0e wy "!
o0!a"ned.
Ge! us now loo% more 2losely a! !a! las! s!ep. Wen "! "s no 2o"n2"den2e !a! !wo !"ngs are 0o!
!rue. !ere "s some!"ng !a! e*pla"ns wy. g")en !e !ru! o' one. !e o!er "s also !rue. +e
!ru! o' e"!er m"g! ma%e !e o!er !rue. 5r 0o! m"g! 0e e*pla"ned 0y some !"rd !ru!. as
wen !wo 'a2!s are !e Co"n! e''e2!s o' a 2ommon 2ause.
3uppose ne*! !a!. o' !e 2osm"2 poss"0"l"!"es. one "s 0o! )ery spe2"al and "s !e one !a!
o0!a"ns. /' !a! "s no 2o"n2"den2e. wa! m"g! e*pla"n wy !ese !"ngs are 0o! !rue# 5n !e
reason"ng !a! we are now 2ons"der"ng. !e '"rs! !ru! e*pla"ns !e se2ond. s"n2e !"s poss"0"l"!y
o0!a"ns 0e2ause "! as !"s spe2"al 'ea!ure. ;")en !e %"nd o' !ru!s !ese are. su2 an
e*plana!"on 2ould no! go !e o!er way. +"s poss"0"l"!y 2ould no! a)e !"s 'ea!ure 0e2ause "!
o0!a"ns. /' some poss"0"l"!y as some 'ea!ure. "! 2ould no! 'a"l !o a)e !"s 'ea!ure. so "! would
a)e !"s 'ea!ure we!er or no! "! o0!a"ns. +e >ll Worlds 9ypo!es"s. 'or e*ample. 2ould no!
'a"l !o des2r"0e !e 'ulles! way 'or real"!y !o 0e.
W"le "! "s ne2essary !a! our "mag"ned poss"0"l"!y as "!s spe2"al 'ea!ure. "! "s no! ne2essary !a!
!"s poss"0"l"!y o0!a"ns. +"s d"''eren2e. / 0el"e)e. Cus!"'"es !e reason"ng !a! we are now
2ons"der"ng. 3"n2e !"s poss"0"l"!y mus! a)e !"s 'ea!ure. 0u! m"g! no! a)e o0!a"ned. "! 2anno!
a)e !"s 'ea!ure 0e2ause "! o0!a"ns. nor 2ould some !"rd !ru! e*pla"n wy "! 0o! as !"s
'ea!ure and o0!a"ns. 3o. "' !ese 'a2!s are no 2o"n2"den2e. !"s poss"0"l"!y mus! o0!a"n because "!
as !"s 'ea!ure.
Wen some poss"0"l"!y o0!a"ns 0e2ause "! as some 'ea!ure. "!s a)"ng !"s 'ea!ure may 0e wy
some agen!. or pro2ess o' na!ural sele2!"on. made "! o0!a"n. +ese we 2an 2all !e intentional and
e!olutionary ways "n w"2 some 'ea!ure o' some poss"0"l"!y may e*pla"n wy "! o0!a"ns.
5ur world. !e"s!s 2la"m. 2an 0e e*pla"ned "n !e '"rs! o' !ese ways. /' real"!y were as good as "!
2ould 0e. "! would "ndeed ma%e sense !o 2la"m !a! !"s was par!ly ;od6s wor%. 8u!. s"n2e ;od6s
own e*"s!en2e 2ould no! 0e ;od6s wor%. !ere 2ould 0e no "n!en!"onal e*plana!"on o' wy !e
wole o' real"!y was as good as "! 2ould 0e. 3o we 2ould reasona0ly 2on2lude !a! !"s way6s 0e"ng
!e 0es! e*pla"ned d"re2!ly wy real"!y was !"s way. 4)en "' ;od e*"s!s. !e "n!en!"onal
e*plana!"on 2ould no! 2ompe!e w"! !e d"''eren! and 0older e*plana!"on o''ered 0y !e
>*"ar2"2 V"ew.
He!urn now !o o!er e*plana!"ons o' !"s %"nd. 7ons"der '"rs! !e Null &oss"0"l"!y. +"s. we %now.
does no! o0!a"n= 0u!. s"n2e we are as%"ng wa! ma%es sense. !a! does no! ma!!er. /' !ere ad
ne)er 0een any!"ng. would !a! a)e ad !o 0e a 0ru!e 'a2!. w"2 ad no e*plana!"on# +e
answer. / sugges!. "s No. /! m"g! a)e 0een no 2o"n2"den2e !a!. o' all !e 2oun!less 2osm"2
poss"0"l"!"es. wa! o0!a"ned was !e s"mples!. and leas! ar0"!rary. and !e only poss"0"l"!y "n
w"2 no!"ng e)er e*"s!s. >nd. "' !ese 'a2!s ad 0een no 2o"n2"den2e. !"s poss"0"l"!y would
a)e o0!a"ned 0e2ause D or par!ly 0e2ause D "! ad one or more o' !ese spe2"al 'ea!ures. +"s
e*plana!"on. moreo)er. 2ould no! a)e !a%en an "n!en!"onal or e)olu!"onary 'orm. /' no!"ng ad
e)er e*"s!ed. !ere 2ould no! a)e 0een some agen!. or pro2ess o' sele2!"on. wo or w"2 made
!"s poss"0"l"!y o0!a"n. /!s 0e"ng !e s"mples! or leas! ar0"!rary poss"0"l"!y would a)e 0een.
d"re2!ly. wy "! o0!a"ned.
7ons"der ne*! !e >ll Worlds 9ypo!es"s. w"2 may o0!a"n. /' real"!y "s as 'ull as "! 2ould 0e. "s
!a! a 2o"n2"den2e# $oes "! merely appen !o 0e !rue !a!. o' all !e 2osm"2 poss"0"l"!"es. !e one
!a! o0!a"ns "s a! !"s e*!reme# >s 0e'ore. !a! "s 2on2e")a0le. 0u! !"s 2o"n2"den2e would 0e !oo
grea! !o 0e 2red"0le. We 2an reasona0ly assume !a!. "' !"s poss"0"l"!y o0!a"ns. !a! "s 0e2ause "!
"s ma*"mal. or a! !"s e*!reme. 5n !"s Maximalist iew. "! "s a 'undamen!al !ru! !a! 0e"ng
poss"0le. and par! o' !e 'ulles! way !a! real"!y 2ould 0e. "s su''"2"en! 'or 0e"ng a2!ual. +a! "s !e
"ges! law go)ern"ng real"!y. >s 0e'ore. "' su2 a law go)erned real"!y. we 2ould s!"ll as% wy "!
d"d. 8u!. "n d"s2o)er"ng !"s law. we would a)e made some progress.
9ere "s ano!er spe2"al 'ea!ure. &eraps real"!y "s !e way "! "s 0e2ause "!s 'undamen!al laws are.
on some 2r"!er"on. as ma!ema!"2ally 0eau!"'ul as !ey 2ould 0e. +a! "s wa! some pys"2"s!s are
"n2l"ned !o 0el"e)e.
>s !ese remar%s sugges!. !ere "s no 2lear 0oundary ere 0e!ween p"losopy and s2"en2e. /'
!ere "s su2 a "ges! law go)ern"ng real"!y. !"s law "s o' !e same %"nd as !ose !a! pys"2"s!s
are !ry"ng !o d"s2o)er. Wen we appeal !o na!ural laws !o e*pla"n some 'ea!ures o' real"!y. su2
as !e rela!"ons 0e!ween l"g!. gra)"!y. spa2e and !"me. we are no! g")"ng 2ausal e*plana!"ons.
s"n2e we are no! 2la"m"ng !a! one par! o' real"!y 2aused ano!er par! !o 0e some way. Wa! su2
laws e*pla"n. or par!ly e*pla"n. are !e deeper 'a2!s a0ou! real"!y !a! 2ausal e*plana!"ons !a%e
'or gran!ed. /n !e se2ond al' o' !"s essay. / sall as% ow deep su2 e*plana!"ons 2ould go.
?@A / am ere merely summar"s"ng. and o)ers"mpl"'y"ng. wa! o!ers a)e 2la"med. 3ee. 'or
e*ample. Jon Gesl"e. "ni!erses I1989J.
Vol. 20 No. 2 22 January 1998 K $ere% &ar'"! K Wy any!"ng# Wy !"s#
pages 24-27 | 5728 words
7on!a2! us 'or r"g!s and "ssues "n,u"r"es.
Ge!!ers
Vol. 20 No. 4 19 -e0ruary 1998
Wy does a l"!erary magaE"ne e*"s! a! all# /! m"g! a)e 0een !e 2ase !a! no magaE"ne e*"s!ed1
no 2o)er. no l"s! o' 2on!r"0u!ors. no 2on!en!s. We a)e !o go on and as% wy we a)e !e
magaE"ne we do a)e. 7ons"der !e Null &oss"0"l"!y. +ere 2ould a)e 0een a Cournal w"!
no!"ng "n "!. 7ons"der ne*! !e >ll Worlds 9ypo!es"s. "n w"2 our per"od"2al would 2on!a"n
e)ery poss"0le %"nd o' ar!"2le. 3omewere "n 0e!ween "s !e pu0l"2a!"on we 0uy. &eraps !e
8ru!e -a2! V"ew appl"es and we a)e !o pu! up w"! wa! we ge! 0e!ween !e 2o)ers and no! as%
,ues!"ons. 5n !e o!er and. !ere may 0e a 3ele2!or or a se! o' par!"al 3ele2!ors w"2
de!erm"nes wa! %"nd o' magaE"ne we e*per"en2e. / am !ry"ng !o ge! round. o' 2ourse. !o as%"ng
!e :3ele2!ors6 wa! was go"ng on wen !ey de2"ded !o pu0l"s $ere% &ar'"!6s !wo-par! ar!"2le on
!e mean"ng o' !e un")erse IL#$. 22 JanuaryJ# +e world we l")e "n "s un'a"r enoug. w"! !e
L#$ appear"ng only 'or!n"g!ly. and !a! !err"0le gap a'!er 7r"s!mas. !e deepes! a0yss "n !e
year. +o surrender !wo and a al' pages "n ea2 o' !wo "ssues !o !"s me!"2ulous 0u! ra!er
pon!"'"2al p"losop"2al analys"s "s enoug !o ma%e us 2ry ou! :Wy#6 !o !e ea)ens.
Leonard Pepper
5*'ord
Wy does a l"!erary magaE"ne e*"s! a! all# /! m"g! a)e 0een !e 2ase !a! no magaE"ne e*"s!ed1
no 2o)er. no l"s! o' 2on!r"0u!ors. no 2on!en!s. We a)e !o go on and as% wy we a)e !e
magaE"ne we do a)e. 7ons"der !e Null &oss"0"l"!y. +ere 2ould a)e 0een a Cournal w"!
no!"ng "n "!. 7ons"der ne*! !e >ll Worlds 9ypo!es"s. "n w"2 our per"od"2al would 2on!a"n
e)ery poss"0le %"nd o' ar!"2le. 3omewere "n 0e!ween "s !e pu0l"2a!"on we 0uy. &eraps !e
8ru!e -a2! V"ew appl"es and we a)e !o pu! up w"! wa! we ge! 0e!ween !e 2o)ers and no! as%
,ues!"ons. 5n !e o!er and. !ere may 0e a 3ele2!or or a se! o' par!"al 3ele2!ors w"2
de!erm"nes wa! %"nd o' magaE"ne we e*per"en2e. / am !ry"ng !o ge! round. o' 2ourse. !o as%"ng
!e :3ele2!ors6 wa! was go"ng on wen !ey de2"ded !o pu0l"s $ere% &ar'"!6s !wo-par! ar!"2le on
!e mean"ng o' !e un")erse IL#$. 22 JanuaryJ# +e world we l")e "n "s un'a"r enoug. w"! !e
L#$ appear"ng only 'or!n"g!ly. and !a! !err"0le gap a'!er 7r"s!mas. !e deepes! a0yss "n !e
year. +o surrender !wo and a al' pages "n ea2 o' !wo "ssues !o !"s me!"2ulous 0u! ra!er
pon!"'"2al p"losop"2al analys"s "s enoug !o ma%e us 2ry ou! :Wy#6 !o !e ea)ens.
Leonard Pepper
5*'ord
-ollow"ng 2on!emporary 2osmology. $ere% &ar'"! wr"!es o' !e seer s!a!"s!"2al unl"%el"ness o'
our e*"s!en2e IL#$. 22 JanuaryJ1 :5' !e range o' "n"!"al 2ond"!"ons. 'ewer !an one "n a 0"ll"on
0"ll"on would a)e produ2ed a (n")erse w"! !e 2omple*"!y !a! allows 'or l"'e. /' !"s 2la"m "s
!rue. as / sall ere assume. !ere "s some!"ng !a! 2r"es ou! !o 0e e*pla"ned. Wy was one o'
!"s !"ny se! also !e one !a! a2!ually o0!a"ned#6 &ar'"! seems !o !"n% !a! !e pro0a0"l"!y !a!
;od e*"s!s "s grea!er !an one "n a 0"ll"on 0"ll"on. so !a! !e e*"s!en2e o' ;od "s more l"%ely !o 0e
!rue !an !e a22"den!al e*"s!en2e o' a l"'e-suppor!"ng un")erse. 8u! "s s!"pula!"on !a! e6s
assuming !a! !e 2la"ms o' 2urren! 2osmology are !rue g")es !e game away. -or e)en "' you
!"n% !a! !e odds !a! ;od e*"s!s are grea!er !an one "n a 0"ll"on 0"ll"on. "!6s d"EEy"ngly more
pro0a0le !a! 2osmology as "! wrong. I>'!er all. s"m"lar sor!s o' error are no! unpre2eden!ed "n
!e "s!ory o' pys"2s.J /n 'a2!. &ar'"!6s argumen! oug! !o em0arrass 2osmolog"s!s. no! a!e"s!s.
+o paraprase &ar'"!1 2osmolog"s!s may reCe2! !"s answer. !"n%"ng "! "mpro0a0le !a! !e"r
!eory "s wrong. 8u! !"s pro0a0"l"!y 2anno! 0e as low as one "n a 0"ll"on 0"ll"on. 3o e)en
2osmolog"s!s sould adm"! !a!. o' !ese !wo answers !o our ,ues!"on. !e one !a! "n)o%es
s2"en!"'"2 error "s more l"%ely !o 0e !rue.
William Flesch
8rande"s (n")ers"!y
Wal!am. <assa2use!!s
Wy any!"ng# Wy !"s#
$ere% &ar'"! 2on2ludes "s essay on !e (n")erse

/n !e '"rs! al' o' !"s essay. / sugges!ed ow real"!y6s deepes! 'ea!ures m"g! 0e par!ly
e*pla"ned. 5' !e 2oun!less 2osm"2 poss"0"l"!"es. or ways !a! real"!y m"g! 0e. a 'ew a)e )ery
spe2"al 'ea!ures. /' su2 a poss"0"l"!y o0!a"ned. !a! m"g! 0e no 2o"n2"den2e. Heal"!y m"g! 0e
!"s way 0e2ause !"s way ad !"s 'ea!ure. +us. "' no!"ng ad e)er e*"s!ed. !a! m"g! a)e
0een !rue 0e2ause "! was !e s"mples! way 'or real"!y !o 0e. >nd "' real"!y "s ma*"mal. 0e2ause all
poss"0le lo2al worlds e*"s!. !"s may 0e !rue 0e2ause "! "s !e 'ulles! way 'or real"!y !o 0e. +e
"ges! law may 0e !a! 0e"ng poss"0le. and par! o' !e 'ulles! way real"!y m"g! 0e. "s su''"2"en!
'or 0e"ng a2!ual.
/' some 2osm"2 poss"0"l"!y o0!a"ns 0e2ause "! as some spe2"al 'ea!ure. we 2an 2all !"s 'ea!ure
!e %elector. /' !ere "s more !an one su2 'ea!ure. !ey are all par!"al 3ele2!ors. Jus! as !ere
are )ar"ous 2osm"2 poss"0"l"!"es. !ere are )ar"ous e*plana!ory poss"0"l"!"es. -or ea2 o' !ese
spe2"al 'ea!ures. !ere "s !e e*plana!ory poss"0"l"!y !a! !"s 'ea!ure "s !e 3ele2!or. or "s one o'
!e 3ele2!ors. Heal"!y would !en 0e !e way "! "s 0e2ause. or par!ly 0e2ause. !"s way ad !"s
'ea!ure.
+ere "s one o!er e*plana!ory poss"0"l"!y1 !a! !ere "s no 3ele2!or. /' !a! "s !rue. "! "s random
!a! real"!y "s as "! "s. 4)en!s may 0e "n one sense random. e)en !oug !ey are 2ausally
"ne)"!a0le. +a! "s ow "! "s random we!er a me!eor"!e s!r"%es !e land or !e sea. 4)en!s are
random "n a s!ronger sense "' !ey a)e no 2ause. +a! "s wa! mos! pys"2"s!s 0el"e)e a0ou!
some 'ea!ures o' e)en!s "n)ol)"ng su0-a!om"2 par!"2les. /' "! "s random wa! real"!y "s l"%e. !e
(n")erse no! only as no 2ause. /! as no e*plana!"on o' any %"nd. +"s 2la"m we 2an 2all !e
$rute &act iew.
-ew 'ea!ures 2an 0e plaus"0ly regarded as poss"0le 3ele2!ors. +oug plaus"0"l"!y "s a ma!!er o'
degree. !ere "s a na!ural !resold !o w"2 we 2an appeal. /' we suppose !a! real"!y as some
spe2"al 'ea!ure. we 2an as% w"2 o' !wo 0el"e's would 0e more 2red"0le1 !a! real"!y merely
appens !o a)e !"s 'ea!ure. or !a! real"!y "s !e way "! "s 0e2ause !"s way as !"s 'ea!ure. /'
!e se2ond would 0e more 2red"0le. !"s 'ea!ure 2an 0e 2alled a credible %elector. He!urn. 'or
e*ample. !o !e ,ues!"on o' ow many poss"0le lo2al worlds e*"s!. 5' !e d"''eren! answers !o
!"s ,ues!"on. all and none g")e us. / a)e 2la"med. 2red"0le 3ele2!ors. /' e"!er all or no worlds
e*"s!ed. !a! would 0e unl"%ely !o 0e a 2o"n2"den2e. 8u! suppose !a! 58 worlds e*"s!ed. +"s
num0er as some spe2"al 'ea!ures. su2 as 0e"ng !e smalles! num0er !a! "s !e sum o' se)en
d"''eren! pr"mes. /! may 0e Cus! 2on2e")a0le !a! !"s would 0e wy 58 worlds e*"s!ed= 0u! "!
would 0e more reasona0le !o 0el"e)e !a! !e num0er !a! e*"s!ed merely appened !o 0e 58.
+ere are. / a)e 2la"med. some 2red"0le 3ele2!ors. Heal"!y m"g! 0e some way 0e2ause !a! way
"s !e 0es!. or !e s"mples!. or !e leas! ar0"!rary. or 0e2ause "!s o0!a"n"ng ma%es real"!y as 'ull
and )ar"ed as "! 2ould 0e. or 0e2ause "!s 'undamen!al laws are. "n some way. as elegan! as !ey
2ould 0e. &resuma0ly !ere are o!er su2 'ea!ures. w"2 / a)e o)erloo%ed.
/n 2la"m"ng !a! !ere are 2red"0le 3ele2!ors. / am assum"ng !a! some 2osm"2 and e*plana!ory
poss"0"l"!"es are more pro0a0le !an o!ers. +a! assump!"on may 0e ,ues!"oned. Judgmen!s o'
pro0a0"l"!y. "! may aga"n 0e 2la"med. mus! 0e grounded on 'a2!s a0ou! our world. so su2
Cudgmen!s 2anno! 0e appl"ed e"!er !o ow !e wole o' real"!y m"g! 0e. or !o ow real"!y m"g!
0e e*pla"ned.
+"s o0Ce2!"on "s. / 0el"e)e. unsound. Wen we 2oose 0e!ween s2"en!"'"2 !eor"es. our
Cudgmen!s o' !e"r pro0a0"l"!y 2anno! res! only on pred"2!"ons 0ased on es!a0l"sed 'a2!s and
laws. We need su2 Cudgmen!s "n !ry"ng !o de2"de wa! !ese 'a2!s and laws are. >nd we 2an
Cus!"'"a0ly ma%e su2 Cudgmen!s wen 2ons"der"ng d"''eren! ways "n w"2 !e wole o' real"!y
may 0e. or m"g! a)e 0een. 7ompare !wo su2 2osm"2 poss"0"l"!"es. /n !e '"rs!. !ere "s a
l"'eless (n")erse 2ons"s!"ng only o' some sper"2al "ron s!ars. wose rela!")e mo!"on "s as "!
would 0e "n our world. /n !e se2ond. !"ngs are !e same. e*2ep! !a! !e s!ars mo)e !oge!er "n
!e pa!!erns o' a m"nue!. and !ey are saped l"%e e"!er Lueen V"2!or"a or 7ary ;ran!. We
would 0e r"g! !o 2la"m !a!. o' !ese !wo poss"0"l"!"es. !e '"rs! "s more l"%ely !o o0!a"n.
/n ma%"ng !a! 2la"m. we would no! mean !a! "! "s more l"%ely !a! !e '"rs! poss"0"l"!y o0!a"ns.
3"n2e !"s poss"0"l"!y "s !e e*"s!en2e o' a l"'eless (n")erse. we %now !a! "! does no! o0!a"n. We
would 0e 2la"m"ng !a! !"s poss"0"l"!y "s "n!r"ns"2ally more l"%ely. or !a!. !o pu! "! rougly. "!
ad a grea!er 2an2e o' 0e"ng ow real"!y "s. /' some poss"0"l"!y "s more l"%ely !o o0!a"n. !a! w"ll
o'!en ma%e "! more l"%ely !a! "! o0!a"ns= 0u! !oug one %"nd o' l"%el"ood suppor!s !e o!er.
!ey are ,u"!e d"''eren!.
>no!er o0Ce2!"on may aga"n seem rele)an! ere. 5' !e 2oun!less 2osm"2 poss"0"l"!"es. a 'ew
a)e spe2"al 'ea!ures. w"2 / a)e 2alled 2red"0le 3ele2!ors. /' su2 a poss"0"l"!y o0!a"ns. we
a)e a 2o"2e o' !wo 2on2lus"ons. 4"!er real"!y. 0y an e*!reme 2o"n2"den2e. merely appens !o
a)e !"s 'ea!ure. or D more plaus"0ly D !"s 'ea!ure "s one o' !e 3ele2!ors. /! may 0e o0Ce2!ed
!a!. wen / !al% o' an e*!reme 2o"n2"den2e. / mus! 0e assum"ng !a! !ese 2osm"2 poss"0"l"!"es
are all e,ually l"%ely !o o0!a"n. 8u! / a)e now reCe2!ed !a! assump!"on. >nd. "' !ese
poss"0"l"!"es are no! e,ually l"%ely. my reason"ng may seem !o 0e underm"ned.
>s 0e'ore. !a! "s no! so. 3uppose !a!. o' !e 2osm"2 poss"0"l"!"es. !ose !a! a)e !ese spe2"al
'ea!ures are mu2 more l"%ely !o o0!a"n. >s !"s o0Ce2!"on r"g!ly 2la"ms. "! would no! !en 0e
amaE"ng "' su2 a poss"0"l"!y merely appened !o o0!a"n. 8u! !a! does no! underm"ne my
reason"ng. s"n2e "! "s ano!er way o' s!a!"ng my 2on2lus"on. /! "s ano!er way o' say"ng !a! !ese
'ea!ures are 3ele2!ors.
+ese remar%s do sow. owe)er. !a! we sould d"s!"ngu"s !wo ways "n w"2 some 'ea!ure
may 0e a 3ele2!or. Probabilistic %electors ma%e some 2osm"2 poss"0"l"!y more l"%ely !o o0!a"n.
0u! lea)e "! open we!er "! does o0!a"n. 5n any plaus"0le )"ew. !ere are some 3ele2!ors o' !"s
%"nd. s"n2e some ways 'or real"!y !o 0e are "n!r"ns"2ally more l"%ely !an o!ers. +us. o' our !wo
"mag"ned (n")erses. !e one 2ons"s!"ng o' sper"2al s!ars "s "n!r"ns"2ally more l"%ely !an !e one
w"! s!ars !a! are saped l"%e Lueen V"2!or"a or 7ary ;ran!. 8es"des &ro0a0"l"s!"2 3ele2!ors.
!ere may also 0e one or more 'ffecti!e %electors. /' some poss"0"l"!y as a 2er!a"n 'ea!ure. !"s
'a2! may ma%e !"s poss"0"l"!y. no! merely "n!r"ns"2ally more l"%ely. 0u! !e one !a! o0!a"ns.
+us. "' s"mpl"2"!y ad 0een !e 4''e2!")e 3ele2!or. !a! would a)e made "! !rue !a! no!"ng
e)er e*"s!ed. >nd. "' ma*"mal"!y "s !e 4''e2!")e 3ele2!or. as "! may 0e. !a! "s wa! ma%es real"!y
as 'ull as "! 2ould 0e. Wen / !al% o' 3ele2!ors. !ese are !e %"nd / mean.
+ere are. !en. )ar"ous 2osm"2 and e*plana!ory poss"0"l"!"es. /n !ry"ng !o de2"de w"2 o' !ese
o0!a"n. we 2an "n par! appeal !o 'a2!s a0ou! our world. +us. 'rom !e mere 'a2! !a! our world
e*"s!s. we 2an dedu2e !a! !e Null &oss"0"l"!y does no! o0!a"n. >nd. s"n2e our world seems !o
2on!a"n po"n!less e)"ls. we a)e reason !o reCe2! !e >*"ar2"2 V"ew.
7ons"der ne*! !e 8ru!e -a2! V"ew. on w"2 real"!y merely appens !o 0e as "! "s. No 'a2!s a0ou!
our world 2ould re'u!e !"s )"ew. 8u! some 'a2!s would ma%e "! less l"%ely !a! !"s )"ew "s !rue. /'
real"!y "s randomly sele2!ed. wa! we sould e*pe2! !o e*"s! are many )ar"ed worlds. none o'
w"2 ad 'ea!ures !a!. "n !e range o' poss"0"l"!"es. were a! one e*!reme. +a! "s wa! we
sould e*pe2! 0e2ause. "n mu2 !e larges! se! o' 2osm"2 poss"0"l"!"es. !a! would 0e wa! e*"s!s.
/' our world as )ery spe2"al 'ea!ures. !a! would 2oun! aga"ns! !e 8ru!e -a2! V"ew.
He!urn now !o !e ,ues!"on we!er ;od e*"s!s. 7ompared w"! !e un2aused e*"s!en2e o' one
or many 2ompl"2a!ed worlds. !e ypo!es"s !a! ;od e*"s!s as 0een 2la"med !o 0e s"mpler. and
less ar0"!rary. and !us more l"%ely !o 0e !rue. 8u! !"s ypo!es"s "s no! s"mpler !an !e 8ru!e
-a2! V"ew. >nd. "' "! "s random w"2 2osm"2 poss"0"l"!y o0!a"ns. we sould no! e*pe2! !e one
!a! o0!a"ns !o 0e as s"mple. and unar0"!rary. as ;od6s e*"s!en2e "s 2la"med !o 0e. Ha!er. as /
a)e Cus! sa"d. we sould e*pe2! !ere !o 0e many worlds. none w"! )ery spe2"al 'ea!ures. 5urs
may 0e !e %"nd o' world !a!. on !e 8ru!e -a2! V"ew. we sould e*pe2! !o o0ser)e.
3"m"lar remar%s apply !o !e >ll Worlds 9ypo!es"s. -ew 'a2!s a0ou! our world 2ould re'u!e !"s
)"ew= 0u!. "' all poss"0le lo2al worlds e*"s!. !e l"%ely 2ara2!er o' our world "s mu2 !e same as
on !e 8ru!e -a2! V"ew. +a! 2la"m may seem surpr"s"ng. g")en !e d"''eren2e 0e!ween !ese !wo
)"ews. 5ne )"ew "s a0ou! which 2osm"2 poss"0"l"!y o0!a"ns. !e o!er "s a0ou! why !e one !a!
o0!a"ns o0!a"ns. >nd !ese )"ews 2on'l"2!. s"n2e. "' we %new e"!er !o 0e !rue. we would a)e
s!rong reason no! !o 0el"e)e !e o!er. /' all poss"0le worlds e*"s!. !a! "s mos! unl"%ely !o 0e a
0ru!e 'a2!. 8u!. "n !e"r d"''eren! ways. !ese )"ews are 0o! non-selecti!e. 5n ne"!er )"ew do
2er!a"n worlds e*"s! 0e2ause !ey a)e 2er!a"n spe2"al 'ea!ures. 3o. "' e"!er )"ew "s !rue. we
sould no! e*pe2! our world !o a)e su2 'ea!ures.
+o !a! las! 2la"m. !ere "s one e*2ep!"on. +"s "s !e 'ea!ure w"! w"2 we 0egan1 !a! our
world allows 'or l"'e. +oug !"s 'ea!ure "s. "n some ways. spe2"al. "! "s one !a! we 2anno! elp
o0ser)"ng. +a! res!r"2!s wa! we 2an "n'er 'rom !e 'a2! !a! our world as !"s 'ea!ure. Ha!er
!an 2la"m"ng !a! 0e"ng l"'e-allow"ng "s one o' !e 3ele2!ors. we 2an appeal !o some )ers"on o'
!e <any Worlds 9ypo!es"s. /' !ere are many worlds. we would e*pe2! a 'ew worlds !o 0e l"'e-
allow"ng. and our world "s 0ound !o 0e one o' !ese 'ew.
7ons"der ne*! o!er %"nds o' spe2"al 'ea!ure. ones !a! we are no! 0ound !o o0ser)e. 3uppose we
d"s2o)er !a! our world as su2 a 'ea!ure. and we as% we!er !a! "s no 2o"n2"den2e. /! may
aga"n 0e sa"d !a!. "' !ere are many worlds. we would e*pe2! a 'ew worlds !o a)e !"s spe2"al
'ea!ure. 8u! !a! would no! e*pla"n wy !a! "s !rue o' our world. We 2ould no! 2la"m D as w"!
!e 'ea!ure o' 0e"ng l"'e-allow"ng D !a! our world "s 0ound !o a)e !"s 'ea!ure. 3o !e appeal !o
many worlds 2ould no! e*pla"n away !e 2o"n2"den2e. 3uppose. 'or e*ample. !a! our world were
)ery good. or were wolly law-go)erned. or ad )ery s"mple na!ural laws. +ose 'a2!s would
2oun! aga"ns! 0o! o' !e unsele2!")e )"ews1 0o! !e >ll Worlds 9ypo!es"s and !e 8ru!e -a2!
V"ew. /! "s !rue !a!. "' all worlds e*"s! or !ere are )ery many randomly sele2!ed worlds. we
sould e*pe2! a 'ew worlds !o 0e )ery good. or wolly law-go)erned. or !o a)e )ery s"mple laws.
8u! !a! would no! e*pla"n wy our world ad !ose 'ea!ures. 3o we would a)e some reason !o
0el"e)e !a! our world "s !e way "! "s 0e2ause !"s way as !ose 'ea!ures.
$oes our world a)e su2 'ea!ures. ones !a! 2oun! aga"ns! !e unsele2!")e )"ews# 5ur world6s
moral 2ara2!er seems no! !o 2oun! aga"ns! !ese )"ews. s"n2e "! seems !e m"*!ure o' good and
0ad !a!. on !e unsele2!")e )"ews. we sould e*pe2!. 8u! our world may a)e !e o!er !wo
'ea!ures1 0e"ng wolly law-go)erned. and a)"ng )ery s"mple laws. Ne"!er 'ea!ure seems !o 0e
re,u"red "n order 'or l"'e !o 0e poss"0le. >nd. among poss"0le l"'e-2on!a"n"ng worlds. a 'ar grea!er
range would no! a)e !ese 'ea!ures. +us. 'or ea2 law-go)erned world. !ere are 2oun!less
)ar"an!s !a! would 'a"l "n d"''eren! ways !o 0e wolly law-go)erned. >nd. 2ompared w"! s"mple
laws. !ere "s a 'ar grea!er range o' 2ompl"2a!ed laws. 3o. on 0o! !e unsele2!")e )"ews. we
sould no! e*pe2! our world !o a)e !ese 'ea!ures. /' "! as !em. as pys"2"s!s m"g! d"s2o)er.
!a! would g")e us reasons !o reCe2! 0o! !e >ll Worlds 9ypo!es"s and !e 8ru!e -a2! V"ew. We
would a)e some reason !o 0el"e)e !a! !ere are a! leas! !wo par!"al 3ele2!ors1 0e"ng law-
go)erned and a)"ng s"mple laws.
+ere may 0e o!er 'ea!ures o' our world 'rom w"2 we 2an !ry !o "n'er wa! real"!y "s l"%e. and
wy. 8u! o0ser)a!"on 2an !a%e us only par! o' !e way. /' we 2an ge! 'ur!er. !a! w"ll a)e !o 0e
0y pure reason"ng.
5' !ose wo a22ep! !e 8ru!e -a2! V"ew. many assume !a! "! mus! 0e !rue. >22ord"ng !o !ese
people. !oug real"!y merely appens !o 0e some way. that "! merely appens !o 0e some way
does no! merely appen !o 0e !rue. +ere 2ould no! 0e an e*plana!"on o' wy real"!y "s !e way "!
"s. s"n2e !ere 2ould no! 0e a 2ausal e*plana!"on. and no o!er e*plana!"on would ma%e sense.
+"s assump!"on. / a)e argued. "s m"s!a%en. Heal"!y m"g! 0e !e way "! "s 0e2ause !"s way "s
!e 'ulles!. or !e mos! )ar"ed. or o0eys !e s"mples! or mos! elegan! laws. or as some o!er
spe2"al 'ea!ure. 3"n2e !e 8ru!e -a2! V"ew "s no! !e only e*plana!ory poss"0"l"!y. we sould no!
assume !a! "! mus! 0e !rue.
Wen suppor!ers o' !"s )"ew re2ogn"se !ese o!er poss"0"l"!"es. !ey may sw"!2 !o !e o!er
e*!reme. 2la"m"ng !a! !e"r )"ew6s !ru! "s ano!er 0ru!e 'a2!. /' !a! were so. no! only would
!ere 0e no e*plana!"on o' real"!y6s 0e"ng as "! "s. !ere would also 0e no e*plana!"on o' !ere
0e"ng no su2 e*plana!"on. >s 0e'ore. !oug !"s m"g! 0e !rue. we sould no! assume !a! "!
mus! 0e !rue. /' some e*plana!ory poss"0"l"!y merely appens !o o0!a"n. !e one !a! o0!a"ns may
no! 0e !e 8ru!e -a2! V"ew. /' "! "s randomly sele2!ed whether real"!y "s randomly sele2!ed. and
!ere are o!er poss"0"l"!"es. random sele2!"on may no! 0e sele2!ed.
+ere "s. moreo)er. ano!er way "n w"2 some e*plana!ory poss"0"l"!y may o0!a"n. Ha!er !an
merely appen"ng !o o0!a"n. !"s poss"0"l"!y may a)e some 'ea!ure. or se! o' 'ea!ures. w"2
e*pla"ns wy "! o0!a"ns. 3u2 a 'ea!ure would 0e a 3ele2!or a! a "ger le)el. s"n2e "! would apply
no! !o 'a2!ual 0u! !o e*plana!ory poss"0"l"!"es. /! would de!erm"ne. no! !a! real"!y 0e a 2er!a"n
way. 0u! !a! "! 0e de!erm"ned "n a 2er!a"n way ow real"!y "s !o 0e.
/' !e 8ru!e -a2! V"ew "s !rue. "! may a)e 0een sele2!ed "n !"s way. 5' !e e*plana!ory
poss"0"l"!"es. !"s )"ew seems !o des2r"0e !e s"mples!. s"n2e "!s 2la"m "s only !a! real"!y as no
e*plana!"on. +"s poss"0"l"!y6s 0e"ng !e s"mples! m"g! ma%e "! !e one !a! o0!a"ns. 3"mpl"2"!y
may 0e !e "ger 3ele2!or. de!erm"n"ng !a! !ere "s no 3ele2!or 0e!ween !e ways !a! real"!y
m"g! 0e.
5n2e aga"n. owe)er. !oug !"s may 0e !rue. we 2anno! assume "!s !ru!. +ere may 0e some
o!er "ger 3ele2!or. 3ome e*plana!ory poss"0"l"!y may o0!a"n. 'or e*ample. 0e2ause "! "s !e
leas! ar0"!rary. or "s !e one !a! e*pla"ns mos!. +e 8ru!e -a2! V"ew as ne"!er o' !ose
'ea!ures. 5r !ere may 0e no "ger 3ele2!or. s"n2e some e*plana!ory poss"0"l"!y may merely
appen !o o0!a"n.
+ese al!erna!")es are !e d"''eren! poss"0"l"!"es a! ye! ano!er. "ger e*plana!ory le)el. 3o we
a)e !e same !wo ,ues!"ons1 w"2 o0!a"ns. and wy#
We may now 0e2ome d"s2ouraged. 4)ery answer. "! may seem. ra"ses a 'ur!er ,ues!"on. 8u! !a!
may no! 0e so. +ere may 0e some answer !a! "s a ne2essary !ru!. W"! !a! ne2ess"!y. our
sear2 would end.
3ome !ru! "s log"2ally ne2essary wen "!s den"al leads !o a 2on!rad"2!"on. /! 2anno! 0e "n !"s
sense ne2essary e"!er !a! real"!y "s a 0ru!e 'a2!. or !a! !ere "s some 3ele2!or. 8o! !ese
2la"ms 2an 0e den"ed w"!ou! 2on!rad"2!"on.
+ere are also non-log"2al ne2ess"!"es. +e mos! 'am"l"ar. 2ausal ne2ess"!y. 2anno! g")e us !e
!ru! we need. /! 2ould no! 0e 2ausally ne2essary !a! real"!y "s. or "sn6!. a 0ru!e 'a2!. 7ausal
ne2ess"!"es 2ome lower down. 3"m"lar remar%s apply !o !e ne2ess"!"es "n)ol)ed "n !e essen!"al
proper!"es o' par!"2ular !"ngs. or na!ural %"nds. 7ons"der ne*! !e me!apys"2al ne2ess"!y !a!
some wr"!ers 2la"m 'or ;od6s e*"s!en2e. +a! 2la"m means. !ey say. !a! ;od6s e*"s!en2e does
no! depend on any!"ng else. and !a! no!"ng else 2ould 2ause ;od !o 2ease !o e*"s!. 8u! !ese
2la"ms do no! "mply !a! ;od mus! e*"s!. and !a! ma%es su2 ne2ess"!y !oo wea% !o end our
,ues!"ons.
+ere are. owe)er. some %"nds o' ne2ess"!y !a! would 0e s!rong enoug. 7ons"der !e !ru!s
!a! undeser)ed su''er"ng "s 0ad. and !a!. "' we 0el"e)e !e prem"ses o' a sound argumen!. we
oug! ra!"onally !o 0el"e)e !"s argumen!6s 2on2lus"on. +ese !ru!s are no! log"2ally ne2essary.
s"n2e !e"r den"als would no! lead !o 2on!rad"2!"ons. 8u! !ey 2ould no! a)e 'a"led !o 0e !rue.
(ndeser)ed su''er"ng does no! merely appen !o 0e 0ad.
Wen Jon Gesl"e de'ends !e >*"ar2"2 V"ew. e appeals !o !"s %"nd o' non-log"2al ne2ess"!y.
No! only does )alue rule real"!y. Gesl"e sugges!s. "! 2ould no! a)e 'a"led !o rule. 8u! !"s
sugges!"on "s ard !o 0el"e)e. W"le "! "s "n2on2e")a0le !a! undeser)ed su''er"ng m"g! a)e
'a"led !o 0e "n "!sel' 0ad. "! seems 2learly 2on2e")a0le !a! )alue m"g! a)e 'a"led !o rule. "' only
0e2ause "! seems so 2lear !a! )alue does not rule.
He!urn now !o !e 8ru!e -a2! V"ew. w"2 "s more l"%ely !o 0e !rue. /' !"s )"ew "s !rue. 2ould "!s
!ru! 0e non-log"2ally ne2essary# /s "! "n2on2e")a0le !a! !ere m"g! 0e some 3ele2!or. or
"ges! law. ma%"ng real"!y 0e some way# +e answer. / a)e 2la"med. "s No. 4)en "' real"!y "s a
0ru!e 'a2!. "! m"g! no! a)e 0een. +us. "' no!"ng ad e)er e*"s!ed. !a! m"g! a)e 0een no
2o"n2"den2e. Heal"!y m"g! a)e 0een !a! way 0e2ause. o' !e 2osm"2 poss"0"l"!"es. "! "s !e
s"mples! and leas! ar0"!rary. >nd. as / a)e also 2la"med. Cus! as "! "s no! ne2essary !a! !e 8ru!e
-a2! V"ew "s !rue. "! "s no! ne2essary !a! !"s )"ew6s !ru! 0e ano!er 0ru!e 'a2!. +"s )"ew m"g!
0e !rue 0e2ause "! "s !e s"mples! o' !e e*plana!ory poss"0"l"!"es.
We a)e no! ye! 'ound !e ne2ess"!y we need. Heal"!y may appen !o 0e as "! "s. or !ere may 0e
some 3ele2!or. W"2e)er o' !ese "s !rue. "! may appen !o 0e !rue. or !ere may 0e some "ger
3ele2!or. +ese are !e d"''eren! poss"0"l"!"es a! !e ne*! e*plana!ory le)el. so we are 0a2% w"!
our !wo ,ues!"ons1 w"2 o0!a"ns. and wy#
7ould !ese ,ues!"ons 2on!"nue 'or e)er# <"g! !ere 0e. a! e)ery le)el. ano!er "ger 3ele2!or#
7ons"der ano!er )ers"on o' !e >*"ar2"2 V"ew. Heal"!y m"g! 0e as good as "! 2ould 0e. and !a!
m"g! 0e !rue 0e2ause "!s 0e"ng !rue "s 0es!. and !a! "n !urn m"g! 0e !rue 0e2ause "!s 0e"ng !rue
"s 0es!. and so on 'or e)er. /n !"s way. "! may seem. e)ery!"ng m"g! 0e e*pla"ned. 8u! !a! "s
no! so. G"%e an "n'"n"!e ser"es o' e)en!s. su2 a ser"es o' e*plana!ory !ru!s 2ould no! e*pla"n
"!sel'. 4)en "' ea2 !ru! were made !rue 0y !e ne*!. we 2ould s!"ll as% wy !e wole ser"es was
!rue. ra!er !an some o!er ser"es. or no ser"es.
+e po"n! 2an 0e made more s"mply. +oug !ere m"g! 0e some "ges! 3ele2!or. !"s m"g!
no! 0e goodness 0u! some o!er 'ea!ure. su2 as non-ar0"!rar"ness. Wa! 2ould sele2! 0e!ween
!ese poss"0"l"!"es# <"g! goodness 0e !e "ges! 3ele2!or 0e2ause !a! "s 0es!. or non-
ar0"!rar"ness 0e !"s 3ele2!or 0e2ause !a! "s !e leas! ar0"!rary poss"0"l"!y# Ne"!er sugges!"on. /
0el"e)e. ma%es sense. Jus! as ;od 2ould no! ma%e "msel' e*"s!. no 3ele2!or 2ould ma%e "!sel' !e
one !a!. a! !e "ges! le)el. rules. No 3ele2!or 2ould se!!le we!er "! rules. s"n2e "! 2anno!
se!!le any!"ng unless "! does rule.
/' !ere "s some "ges! 3ele2!or. !"s 2anno!. / a)e 2la"med. 0e a ne2essary !ru!. Nor 2ould
!"s 3ele2!or ma%e "!sel' !e "ges!. >nd. s"n2e !"s 3ele2!or would 0e !e "ges!. no!"ng else
2ould ma%e !a! !rue. 3o we may a)e 'ound !e ne2ess"!y we need. /' !ere "s some "ges!
3ele2!or. !a!. / sugges!. mus! merely appen !o 0e !rue.
3uppor!ers o' !e 8ru!e -a2! V"ew may now 'eel )"nd"2a!ed. 9a)e we no!. "n !e end. a22ep!ed
!e"r )"ew#
We a)e no!. >22ord"ng !o !e 8ru!e -a2! V"ew. real"!y merely appens !o 0e as "! "s. +a!. / a)e
argued. may no! 0e !rue. s"n2e !ere may 0e some 3ele2!or w"2 e*pla"ns. or par!ly e*pla"ns.
real"!y6s 0e"ng as "! "s. +ere may also 0e some "ger 3ele2!or w"2 e*pla"ns !ere 0e"ng !"s
3ele2!or. <y sugges!"on "s only !a!. a! !e end o' any su2 e*plana!ory 2a"n. some "ges!
3ele2!or mus! merely appen !o 0e !e one !a! rules. +a! "s a d"''eren! )"ew.
+"s d"''eren2e may seem small. No 3ele2!or 2ould explain real"!y. we may 0el"e)e. "' "! merely
appened !o rule. 8u! !"s !oug!. !oug na!ural. "s a m"s!a%e. /' some e*plana!"on appeals !o
a 0ru!e 'a2!. "! does no! e*pla"n !a! 'a2!= 0u! "! may e*pla"n o!ers.
3uppose. 'or e*ample. !a! real"!y "s as 'ull as "! 2ould 0e. 5n !e 8ru!e -a2! V"ew. !"s 'a2! would
a)e no e*plana!"on. 5n !e <a*"mal"s! V"ew. real"!y would 0e !"s way 0e2ause !e "ges! law
"s !a! wa! "s poss"0le "s a2!ual. /' real"!y were as 'ull as "! 2ould 0e. !"s <a*"mal"s! V"ew would
0e 0e!!er !an !e 8ru!e -a2! V"ew. s"n2e "! would e*pla"n real"!y6s 0e"ng !"s way. >nd !"s )"ew
would pro)"de !a! e*plana!"on e)en "' "! merely appened !o 0e !rue. /! ma%es a d"''eren2e
were !e 0ru!e 'a2! 2omes.
&ar! o' !e d"''eren2e ere "s !a!. w"le !ere are 2oun!less 2osm"2 poss"0"l"!"es. !ere are 'ew
plaus"0le e*plana!ory poss"0"l"!"es. /' real"!y "s as 'ull as "! 2ould 0e. !a!6s 0e"ng a 0ru!e 'a2!
would 0e )ery puEEl"ng. 3"n2e !ere are 2oun!less 2osm"2 poss"0"l"!"es. "! would 0e amaE"ng "' !e
one !a! o0!a"ned merely appened !o 0e a! !e ma*"mal e*!reme. 5n !e <a*"mal"s! V"ew. !"s
'a2! would 0e no 2o"n2"den2e. >nd. s"n2e !ere are 'ew e*plana!ory poss"0"l"!"es. "! would no! 0e
amaE"ng "' !e <a*"mal"s! "ges! law merely appened !o 0e !e one !a! rules.
We sould no! 2la"m !a!. "' some e*plana!"on res!s on a 0ru!e 'a2!. "! "s no! an e*plana!"on.
<os! s2"en!"'"2 e*plana!"ons !a%e !"s 'orm. +e mos! !a! m"g! 0e !rue "s !a! su2 an
e*plana!"on "s. "n a way. merely a 0e!!er des2r"p!"on.
/' !a! were !rue. !ere would 0e a d"''eren! de'en2e o' !e %"nd o' reason"ng !a! we a)e 0een
2ons"der"ng. 4)en !o d"s2o)er how !"ngs are. we need e*plana!"ons. >nd we may need
e*plana!"ons on !e grandes! s2ale. 5ur world may seem !o a)e some 'ea!ure !a! would 0e
unl"%ely !o 0e a 2o"n2"den2e. We may reasona0ly suspe2! !a! !"s 'ea!ure "s !e 3ele2!or. or one
o' !e 3ele2!ors. +a! ypo!es"s m"g! lead us !o 2on'"rm !a!. as "! seemed. our world does
a)e !"s 'ea!ure. >nd !a! m"g! g")e us reason !o 2on2lude e"!er !a! ours "s !e only world. or
!a! !ere are o!er worlds. w"! !e same or rela!ed 'ea!ures. We m"g! !us rea2 !ru!s a0ou!
!e wole (n")erse.
4)en "' all e*plana!"ons mu!! end w"! a 0ru!e 'a2!. we sould go on !ry"ng !o e*pla"n wy !e
(n")erse e*"s!s. and "s as "! "s. +e 0ru!e 'a2! may no! en!er a! !e lowes! le)el. /' real"!y "s !e
way "! "s 0e2ause !"s way as some 'ea!ure. !o %now what real"!y "! l"%e we mus! as% why.
We may ne)er 0e a0le !o answer !ese ,ues!"ons. e"!er 0e2ause our world "! only a small par! o'
real"!y. or 0e2ause. !oug our world "s !e wole o' real"!y. we 2ould ne)er %now !a! !o 0e !rue.
or 0e2ause o' our own l"m"!a!"ons. 8u!. a! / a)e !r"ed !o sow. we may 2ome !o see more 2learly
wa! !e poss"0le answers are. 3ome o' !e 'og !a! srouds !ese ,ues!"ons may !en
d"sappear.
/! 2an seem as!on"s"ng. 'or e*ample. ow real"!y 2ould 0e made !o 0e as "! "s. /' ;od made !e
res! o' real"!y 0e as "! "s. wa! 2ould a)e made ;od e*"s!# >nd. "' ;od does no! e*"s!. wa! else
2ould a)e made real"!y 0e as "! "s# Wen we !"n% a0ou! !ese ,ues!"ons. e)en !e 8ru!e -a2!
V"ew may seem un"n!ell"g"0le. /! may seem 0a''l"ng ow real"!y 2ould 0e e)en randomly sele2!ed.
Wa! %"nd o' process 2ould sele2! we!er. 'or e*ample. !"me ad no 0eg"nn"ng. or we!er
any!"ng e)er e*"s!s# Wen. and ow. 2ould any sele2!"on 0e made#
+"s "s no! a real pro0lem. 5' all !e poss"0le ways !a! real"!y m"g! 0e. !ere mus! 0e one !a!
"s !e way real"!y a2!ually "s. 3"n2e "! "s log"2ally ne2essary !a! real"!y 0e some way or o!er. "! "s
ne2essary !a! one way 0e p"2%ed !o 0e !e way real"!y "s. Gog"2 ensures !a!. w"!ou! any %"nd o'
pro2ess. a sele2!"on "s made. +ere "s no need 'or "dden ma2"nery.
3uppose ne*! !a!. as many people assume. !e 8ru!e -a2! V"ew mus! 0e !rue. /' our world as
no )ery spe2"al 'ea!ures. !ere would !en 0e no!"ng !a! was deeply puEEl"ng. /' "! were
ne2essary !a! some glo0al poss"0"l"!y 0e randomly sele2!ed. w"le !ere would 0e no
e*plana!"on o' wy !e sele2!"on wen! as "! d"d. !ere would 0e no mys!ery "n real"!y6s 0e"ng as "!
"s. Heal"!y6s 'ea!ures would 0e "ne*pl"2a0le. 0u! only "n !e way "n w"2 "! "s "ne*pl"2a0le ow
some par!"2le randomly mo)es. /' a par!"2le 2an merely appen !o mo)e as "! does. real"!y 2ould
merely appen !o 0e as "! "s. Handomness may e)en 0e less puEEl"ng a! !e le)el o' !e wole
(n")erse. s"n2e we %now !a! 'a2!s a! !"s le)el 2ould no! a)e 0een 2aused.
+e 8ru!e -a2! V"ew. / a)e argued. "s no! ne2essary. and may no! 0e !rue. +ere may 0e one or
more 3ele2!ors 0e!ween !e ways !a! real"!y m"g! 0e. and one or more 3ele2!ors 0e!ween su2
3ele2!ors. 8u!. as / a)e also 2la"med. "! may 0e a ne2essary !ru! !a! "! 0e a 0ru!e 'a2! we!er
!ere are su2 3ele2!ors. and. "' so. w"2 !e "ges! 3ele2!or "s.
/' !a! "s a ne2essary !ru!. s"m"lar remar%s apply. 5n !ese assump!"ons. !ere would aga"n 0e
no!"ng !a! was deeply puEEl"ng. /' "! "s ne2essary !a!. o' !ese e*plana!ory poss"0"l"!"es. one
merely appens !o o0!a"n. !ere would 0e no e*plana!"on o' wy !e one !a! o0!a"ns o0!a"ns.
8u!. as 0e'ore. !a! would 0e no more mys!er"ous !an !e random mo)emen! o' some par!"2le.
+e e*"s!en2e o' !e (n")erse 2an seem. "n ano!er way. as!on"s"ng. 4)en "' "! "s no! 0a''l"ng
!a! real"!y was made !o 0e some way. s"n2e !ere "s no 2on2e")a0le al!erna!")e. "! 2an seem
0a''l"ng !a! !e sele2!"on wen! as "! d"d. Wy "s !ere a (n")erse a! all# Wy doesn6! real"!y !a%e
"!s s"mples! and leas! ar0"!rary 'orm1 !a! "n w"2 no!"ng e)er e*"s!s#
/' we '"nd !"s as!on"s"ng. we are assum"ng !a! !ese 'ea!ures sould 0e !e 3ele2!ors1 !a!
real"!y sould 0e as s"mple and unar0"!rary as "! 2ould 0e. +a! assump!"on as. / 0el"e)e. grea!
plaus"0"l"!y. 8u!. Cus! as !e s"mples! 2osm"2 poss"0"l"!y "s !a! no!"ng e)er e*"s!s. !e s"mples!
e*plana!ory poss"0"l"!y "s !a! !ere "s no 3ele2!or. 3o we sould no! e*pe2! s"mpl"2"!y a! 0o! !e
'a2!ual and e*plana!ory le)els. /' !ere "s no 3ele2!or. we sould no! e*pe2! !a! !ere would also
0e no (n")erse. +a! would 0e an e*!reme 2o"n2"den2e.?@A

?@A 5' se)eral d"s2uss"ons o' !ese ,ues!"ons. / owe mos! !o Jon Gesl"e6s alue and 'xistence
I1979J. and !o Ho0er! NoE"2%6s Philosophical 'xplanations I1981J= !en !o H"2ard 3w"n0urne6s
(he 'xistence of )od I1979J. Jon <a2%"e6s (he Miracle of (heism I1982J. &e!er (nger6s ar!"2le
"n Mid-West %tudies in Philosophy. Volume 9 I1989J. and some unpu0l"sed wor% 0y 3!epen
;ro)er.
Vol. 20 No. F 5 -e0ruary 1998 K $ere% &ar'"! K Wy any!"ng# Wy !"s#
pages 22-25 | 4849 words
7on!a2! us 'or r"g!s and "ssues "n,u"r"es.
Ge!!ers
Vol. 20 No. 4 19 -e0ruary 1998
Wy does a l"!erary magaE"ne e*"s! a! all# /! m"g! a)e 0een !e 2ase !a! no magaE"ne e*"s!ed1
no 2o)er. no l"s! o' 2on!r"0u!ors. no 2on!en!s. We a)e !o go on and as% wy we a)e !e
magaE"ne we do a)e. 7ons"der !e Null &oss"0"l"!y. +ere 2ould a)e 0een a Cournal w"!
no!"ng "n "!. 7ons"der ne*! !e >ll Worlds 9ypo!es"s. "n w"2 our per"od"2al would 2on!a"n
e)ery poss"0le %"nd o' ar!"2le. 3omewere "n 0e!ween "s !e pu0l"2a!"on we 0uy. &eraps !e
8ru!e -a2! V"ew appl"es and we a)e !o pu! up w"! wa! we ge! 0e!ween !e 2o)ers and no! as%
,ues!"ons. 5n !e o!er and. !ere may 0e a 3ele2!or or a se! o' par!"al 3ele2!ors w"2
de!erm"nes wa! %"nd o' magaE"ne we e*per"en2e. / am !ry"ng !o ge! round. o' 2ourse. !o as%"ng
!e :3ele2!ors6 wa! was go"ng on wen !ey de2"ded !o pu0l"s $ere% &ar'"!6s !wo-par! ar!"2le on
!e mean"ng o' !e un")erse IL#$. 22 JanuaryJ# +e world we l")e "n "s un'a"r enoug. w"! !e
L#$ appear"ng only 'or!n"g!ly. and !a! !err"0le gap a'!er 7r"s!mas. !e deepes! a0yss "n !e
year. +o surrender !wo and a al' pages "n ea2 o' !wo "ssues !o !"s me!"2ulous 0u! ra!er
pon!"'"2al p"losop"2al analys"s "s enoug !o ma%e us 2ry ou! :Wy#6 !o !e ea)ens.
Leonard Pepper
5*'ord
Wy does a l"!erary magaE"ne e*"s! a! all# /! m"g! a)e 0een !e 2ase !a! no magaE"ne e*"s!ed1
no 2o)er. no l"s! o' 2on!r"0u!ors. no 2on!en!s. We a)e !o go on and as% wy we a)e !e
magaE"ne we do a)e. 7ons"der !e Null &oss"0"l"!y. +ere 2ould a)e 0een a Cournal w"!
no!"ng "n "!. 7ons"der ne*! !e >ll Worlds 9ypo!es"s. "n w"2 our per"od"2al would 2on!a"n
e)ery poss"0le %"nd o' ar!"2le. 3omewere "n 0e!ween "s !e pu0l"2a!"on we 0uy. &eraps !e
8ru!e -a2! V"ew appl"es and we a)e !o pu! up w"! wa! we ge! 0e!ween !e 2o)ers and no! as%
,ues!"ons. 5n !e o!er and. !ere may 0e a 3ele2!or or a se! o' par!"al 3ele2!ors w"2
de!erm"nes wa! %"nd o' magaE"ne we e*per"en2e. / am !ry"ng !o ge! round. o' 2ourse. !o as%"ng
!e :3ele2!ors6 wa! was go"ng on wen !ey de2"ded !o pu0l"s $ere% &ar'"!6s !wo-par! ar!"2le on
!e mean"ng o' !e un")erse IL#$. 22 JanuaryJ# +e world we l")e "n "s un'a"r enoug. w"! !e
L#$ appear"ng only 'or!n"g!ly. and !a! !err"0le gap a'!er 7r"s!mas. !e deepes! a0yss "n !e
year. +o surrender !wo and a al' pages "n ea2 o' !wo "ssues !o !"s me!"2ulous 0u! ra!er
pon!"'"2al p"losop"2al analys"s "s enoug !o ma%e us 2ry ou! :Wy#6 !o !e ea)ens.
Leonard Pepper
5*'ord
Vol. 20 No. 8 1M >pr"l 1998
$ere% &ar'"!6s !our de 'or2e IL#$. 5 -e0ruaryJ ra"ses 0as"2 p"losop"2al pro0lems a0ou! !e role
!a! e*plana!"ons 2an leg"!"ma!ely play. &ar'"! assumes !a! !e no!"on o' an e*plana!"on "s
su''"2"en!ly 2lear and un"'orm. !a! p"losop"2al analys"s w"ll sow wen an e*plana!"on "s
needed and ow !o e)alua!e d"''eren! 2and"da!es. and !a! !e 2r"!er"a apply a2ross !e 0oard1
'rom e)eryday 'a2!s !o s2"en!"'"2 2onCe2!ures o' )ary"ng general"!y. +"s owe)er "s dou0!'ul.
:4*plana!"on6 "s an um0rella !erm 2o)er"ng an assor!men! o' loosely rela!ed no!"ons
Ie*plana!"ons "n pys"2s. ma!ema!"2al e*plana!"ons. elu2"da!"ons. 2lar"'"2a!"ons. wa! a)e
youJ. +ere "s a danger o' p"losop"2al "llus"on "n !rea!"ng !em as spe2"es o' one gener"2
2on2ep!.
Ge! me su0s!an!"a!e !"s 0y a par!"2ular o0Ce2!"on !o &ar'"!6s argumen!s. &ar'"! d"s!"ngu"ses
!ose e*!remely unl"%ely e)en!s !a! do no! re,u"re e*plana!"on 'rom !ose !a! do. 9"s
e*ample1 a !ousand people. / among !em. 'a2e dea!. 5nly one person 2an 0e res2ued and !a!
person w"ll 0e 2osen 0y lo!!ery. /' / w"n Iw"! odds 1 "n 1000J and my l"'e "s sa)ed. !e 'a2!
re,u"res no e*plana!"on. :3omeone ad !o w"n. and wy no! me#6 /n !e se2ond s2enar"o / am
sen!en2ed !o dea!. 0u! !e sen!en2e w"ll 0e rem"!!ed "' !e gaoler draws !e longes! s!raw ou! o'
a !ousand. +e longes! s!raw "s drawn and my l"'e "s sa)ed. +"s. &ar'"! argues. "s some!"ng
spe2"al !a! re,u"res an e*plana!"on. >ppeal"ng !o 2o"n2"den2e won6! do. We w"ll 0e r"g! !o
2on2lude !a! "! "s mu2 more l"%ely !a! !e draw was r"gged. 3ounds 2on)"n2"ng. 8u! "s "!# >nd
ow 'ar 2an !"s l"ne o' !oug! 0e pused#
/mag"ne a !"rd s2enar"o. >s "n !e '"rs!. !ere are a !ousand doomed people. one o' wom.
2osen 0y lo!!ery. w"ll sur)")e. /' / appen !o w"n. no e*plana!"on "s re,u"red. 8u! le! !e lo!!ery
0e "mplemen!ed as 'ollows. ;o"ng o)er !e alpa0e!"2al l"s! o' !e !ousand people. an o''"2"al
draws. aga"ns! ea2 name. a s!raw 'rom an "n"!"al 0undle o' a !ousand s!raws. +e w"nner "s !e
person aga"ns! wose name !e long s!raw I1 "n 1000J "s drawn. 5n2e !"s appens. !e draws
are d"s2on!"nued. / am !e '"rs! on !e l"s! and !e '"rs! !ry su22eeds. 4*a2!ly as "n !e se2ond
s2enar"o. / am sa)ed 0y a s"ngle draw o' !e longes! s!raw ou! o' a !ousand. w"! no o!er draws
!a%"ng pla2e. +e "n!en!"on. !o 0e sure. was !o 2arry on "n !e e)en! o' 'a"lure. Wy sould !"s
"n!en!"on ma!!er# 3ay / ad los!. and !e lo!!ery 2on!"nued. >ga"n. wy sould !"s
2oun!er'a2!ual reason"ng ma%e a d"''eren2e# 7oun!er'a2!uals are usually "n)o%ed "n 2ausal
e*plana!"ons1 :9ad Jon no! slammed on !e 0ra%es. !e 2ar would no! a)e swer)ed.6 sow"ng
!a! !e slamm"ng was !e 2ause o' !e swer)"ng. 8u! "n our 2ase 2ausal"!y wor%s "n !e o!er
d"re2!"on1 'rom my w"nn"ng !o !e !erm"na!"on o' !e lo!!ery. /! does no! e*pla"n my w"nn"ng.
>nd "! "s no! 2lear wy "! sould o0)"a!e !e need 'or e*plana!"on. >nd "' !ere "s no need ere.
wy sould !ere 0e one "n &ar'"!6s se2ond s2enar"o#
Haim Gaifman
7olum0"a (n")ers"!y. New Nor%