Korea Advanced Institute of

Science and Technology

OSE551 Reliability and Risk Analysis for Offshore Plants
Daejun CHANG (djchang@kaist.edu)
Division of Ocean Systems Engineering
Fire and Explosion
- Explosion Risk Analysis
-1-
Ocean Systems Engineering
Prof. Daejun CHANG
Fundamentals Fundamentals
-2-
Ocean Systems Engineering
Prof. Daejun CHANG
Fire (Explosion) Triangle Fire (Explosion) Triangle
Fuel
Ignition
source
Air
(oxygen)
Fire/Explosion
Sparks, flames, static electricity, heat
Since air always exists for open-air explosion,
we focus on the coexistence of the fuel and ignition source.
-3-
Ocean Systems Engineering
Prof. Daejun CHANG
Concept of Explosion Risk Assessment Concept of Explosion Risk Assessment
Risk = Consequence x Frequency
Consequence = overpressure
Frequency f = f
cloud
x f
ign
f
cloud
: Frequency that the cloud exists at the point.
f
ign
: Frequency that the ignition source exists at the point.
-4-
Ocean Systems Engineering
Prof. Daejun CHANG
Some real Some real--world issues world issues
The cloud size is changing with time.
Leak Dispersion Cloud formation Dilution by air
ESD (process isolation) and EDP (blowdown) changes the leak
rate.
The ignition frequency is changing with time.
Ignition frequency depends on the number of equipment,
electrical instrument, hot work etc.
Upon detection of the gas, the ESD system stops the electrical
supply to the system (electric isolation).
In consequence, the explosion risk changes with time.
-5-
Ocean Systems Engineering
Prof. Daejun CHANG
Time Dependence Time Dependence
-6-
Ocean Systems Engineering
Prof. Daejun CHANG
Leak rate with time Leak rate with time
Time, s
Leak rate, kg/s
On set of leak
Gas detection &
Process isolation
Emergency depressurization
(blowdown)
-7-
Ocean Systems Engineering
Prof. Daejun CHANG
Gas volume with time Gas volume with time
Time, s
Leak rate, kg/s
Gas volume, m
3
On set of leak
Gas detection &
Process isolation
Emergency depressurization
(blowdown)
Dilution by ventilation
-8-
Ocean Systems Engineering
Prof. Daejun CHANG
Ignition density with time Ignition density with time
Time, s
Leak rate, kg/s
Gas volume, m
3
Ignition density
On set of leak
Gas detection &
Process isolation
Emergency depressurization
(blowdown)
Dilution by ventilation
-9-
Ocean Systems Engineering
Prof. Daejun CHANG
Explosion frequency with time Explosion frequency with time
Time, s
Explosion frequency
Gas volume, m
3
Ignition density
Small because of low ignition density
Small because of low cloud size
-10-
Ocean Systems Engineering
Prof. Daejun CHANG
Cloud Size Estimation Cloud Size Estimation
-11-
Ocean Systems Engineering
Prof. Daejun CHANG
Cloud size estimation Cloud size estimation
Do we have to estimate the cloud size for all leak rates?
8 representative leak rates by NORSOK Standard Z-013:
0.75, 1.5, 3, 6, 12, 24, 48, 96 kg/s
Do we have to simulate all the leak rates?
Usually, some of them are simulated and the others
interpolated
Simulated: 0.75, 1.5, 3, 6, 12, 24, 48, 96 kg/s
Interpolated: 0.75, 1.5, 3, 6, 12, 24, 48, 96 kg/s
What situation do we have to simulate?
All the scenarios including ESD and EDP?
Numerous simulation cases
Frozen cloud assumption!
-12-
Ocean Systems Engineering
Prof. Daejun CHANG
Frozen cloud assumption Frozen cloud assumption
Time, s
Leak rate, kg/s
Gas volume, m
3
On set of leak
Leak rate
The cloud size is just dependent on the leak rate at the moment.
That implies the cloud size is independent of its history.
Is it justifiable?
Cloud size
-13-
Ocean Systems Engineering
Prof. Daejun CHANG
Effect of Wind and Leak Direction Effect of Wind and Leak Direction
-14-
Ocean Systems Engineering
Prof. Daejun CHANG
Combined effects of leak direction and wind Combined effects of leak direction and wind
The leak has direction as well as rate.
Leak to the inside vs. Leak to the outside
The former is the more destructive.
Wind has both magnitude (speed) and direction
High wind speed
- High dilution rate
- Wider dispersion
Wind direction
- The effect of the wind direction depends on the leak position.
-15-
Ocean Systems Engineering
Prof. Daejun CHANG
An approach to the combined effects An approach to the combined effects
As the leak rate, we cannot simulate all the cases depending on
Leak rate
Leak direction
Leak position
Wind direction
Wind speed
-16-
Ocean Systems Engineering
Prof. Daejun CHANG
An approach to the combined effects An approach to the combined effects
Approaches
There are N
leak,pos
leak positions.
For each position, there are N
leak,dir
leak directions.
For each leak direction, there are N
leak,rate
reference leak rates.
For each rate, there are N
wind,dir
wind directions.
For each wind direction, there are N
wind,spd
wind speed.
For example: Total simulation cases
= N
leak,pos
x N
leak,dir
x N
leak,rate
x N
wind,dir
x N
wind,spd
= 4 2 8 3 5 = 960
= 4 2 4 3 2 = 192
if interpolation is used based on the frozen cloud assumption
-17-
Ocean Systems Engineering
Prof. Daejun CHANG
An approach to the combined effects An approach to the combined effects
Simulation and interpolation
Leak position: Deck 1 (D)
Leak direction: North (N)
Wind Direction: North-South (NS)
Frequency 0.071 0.0064 0.005 0.0036 0.0022 0.0008 0.0003 0.0001
Probability
Leak Rate
Wind Speed
0.75 1.5 3 6 12 24 48 96
0.03 1.5 DNNS11 DNNS12 DNNS13 DNNS14 DNNS15 DNNS16 DNNS17 DNNS18
0.09 4 DNNS21 DNNS22 DNNS23 DNNS24 DNNS25 DNNS26 DNNS27 DNNS28
0.05 6 DNNS31 DNNS32 DNNS33 DNNS34 DNNS35 DNNS36 DNNS37 DNNS38
0.02 8 DNNS41 DNNS42 DNNS43 DNNS44 DNNS45 DNNS46 DNNS47 DNNS48
0.01 12 DNNS51 DNNS52 DNNS53 DNNS54 DNNS55 DNNS56 DNNS57 DNNS58
-18-
Ocean Systems Engineering
Prof. Daejun CHANG
An approach to the combined effects An approach to the combined effects
Simulation and interpolation
Leak position: Deck 1 (D)
Leak direction: North (N)
Wind Direction: North-South (NS)
Frequency 0.071 0.0064 0.005 0.0036 0.0022 0.0008 0.0003 0.0001
Probability
Leak Rate
Wind Speed
0.75 1.5 3 6 12 24 48 96
0.03 1.5 DNNS11 DNNS12 DNNS13 DNNS14 DNNS15 DNNS16 DNNS17 DNNS18
0.09 4 DNNS21 DNNS22 DNNS23 DNNS24 DNNS25 DNNS26 DNNS27 DNNS28
0.05 6 DNNS31 DNNS32 DNNS33 DNNS34 DNNS35 DNNS36 DNNS37 DNNS38
0.02 8 DNNS41 DNNS42 DNNS43 DNNS44 DNNS45 DNNS46 DNNS47 DNNS48
0.01 12 DNNS51 DNNS52 DNNS53 DNNS54 DNNS55 DNNS56 DNNS57 DNNS58
S: Simulated cases
S S S S
S S S S
-19-
Ocean Systems Engineering
Prof. Daejun CHANG
Explosion Simulation Explosion Simulation
-20-
Ocean Systems Engineering
Prof. Daejun CHANG
Is the cloud fixed at the position for which the dispersion analysis is
done?
The cloud can be moved by the wind.
It can also travel on its own momentum.
If the leak position is changed, the cloud position will change.
The cloud position is possible at any allowable place of the
installation.
Position of gas cloud
Small cloud (low category): 5 - 9 positions
Large cloud (high category): 2 - 3 positions
Position of gas cloud Position of gas cloud
-21-
Ocean Systems Engineering
Prof. Daejun CHANG
Position of gas cloud Position of gas cloud
Small cloud
Large cloud
-22-
Ocean Systems Engineering
Prof. Daejun CHANG
It is known that the overpressure varies with the ignition position within
the cloud.
Ignition point within the gas cloud
Small cloud (low category): center
Large cloud (high category): 2 - 3 positions
Ignition position within the cloud Ignition position within the cloud
-23-
Ocean Systems Engineering
Prof. Daejun CHANG
Continuous and Discrete Ignition Continuous and Discrete Ignition
-24-
Ocean Systems Engineering
Prof. Daejun CHANG
Ignition density Ignition density
Without ignition, there is no explosion.
Ignition density determines the explosion frequency.
Time, s
Explosion frequency
Gas volume, m
3
Ignition density
-25-
Ocean Systems Engineering
Prof. Daejun CHANG
Naturally there are two types of ignition sources.
Continuous: the ignition source is constantly active.
Discrete: the activity of the ignition source is intermittent.
The source can be
either of the two (continuous or discrete)
Both of the two (continuous and discrete at the same time)
TDIIM
Time-Dependent Internal Ignition Model
Developed by a JIP program led by DNV
Continuous and discrete ignition Continuous and discrete ignition
-26-
Ocean Systems Engineering
Prof. Daejun CHANG
TDIIM (Time TDIIM (Time--Dependent Internal Ignition Model) Dependent Internal Ignition Model)
Continuous ignition
Conditional probability that the gas cloud explodes if it touches the
continuous ignition source.
Discrete ignition
Probability that the gas cloud explodes which contains the discrete
ignition source
-27-
Ocean Systems Engineering
Prof. Daejun CHANG
Discrete ignition Discrete ignition
Discrete ignition
Probability that the gas cloud explodes which contains the discrete
ignition source
The ignition source is active and inactive intermittently.
The explosion probability is proportional to the contact time between
the cloud and the ignition source.
The cloud ultimately explodes if left in contact with the source.
f
dis
= Pr
dis,total
x V
cloud
/V
deck
x Dt
f
dis
: discrete ignition frequency
Pr
dis,total
: sum of all the discrete ignition sources
V
cloud
: cloud volume
V
deck
: deck or space volume
Dt: residence time of the cloud
-28-
Ocean Systems Engineering
Prof. Daejun CHANG
Discrete ignition Discrete ignition
Discrete ignition
Probability that the gas cloud explodes which contains the discrete
ignition source
The ignition source is active and inactive intermittently.
The explosion probability is proportional to the contact time between
the cloud and the ignition source.
The cloud ultimately explodes if left in contact with the source.
f
dis
= Pr
dis,total
x V
cloud
/V
deck
x Dt
f
dis
: discrete ignition frequency
Pr
dis,total
: sum of all the discrete ignition sources
V
cloud
: cloud volume
V
deck
: deck or space volume
Dt: residence time of the cloud
-29-
Ocean Systems Engineering
Prof. Daejun CHANG
Time, s
Explosion frequency
Gas volume, m
3
Ignition density
Category 4 (3,100 m
3
)
t
1
t
2
t
3
t
4
Discrete ignition Discrete ignition
Ignition probability = Pr
dis,total
x V
cloud
/V
deck
x Dt
Pr
dis,total
: Sum of all the discrete ignition sources = (pump + compr + ) * 1600m2
V
cloud
: cloud volume = 3,100 m3
V
deck
: deck or space volume = 12,500 m3
Dt: residence time of the cloud = t
2
- t
1
+ t
4
- t
3
-30-
Ocean Systems Engineering
Prof. Daejun CHANG
Continuous ignition Continuous ignition
Continuous ignition
Conditional probability that the gas cloud explodes if it touches the
continuous ignition source.
As soon as the cloud touches the source, it will explode.
Continuous ignition is possible only on the boundary.
f
con
= Pr
con,total
x Q
cloud
/V
deck
f
con
: continuous ignition frequency
Pr
dis,total
: sum of all the continuous ignition sources
Q
cloud
: cloud volume growth rate (m3/s)
V
deck
: deck or space volume
-31-
Ocean Systems Engineering
Prof. Daejun CHANG
Time, s
Explosion frequency
Gas volume, m
3
Ignition density
Category 4 (3,100 m
3
)
t
1
t
2
t
3
t
4
Continuous ignition Continuous ignition
f
con
= Pr
con,total
x Q
cloud
/V
deck
f
con
: continuous ignition frequency = (pump + compr + ) * 1600m2
Pr
dis,total
: sum of all the continuous ignition sources
Q
cloud
: cloud volume growth rate (m3/s) [V(t
2
) V(t
1
)]/(t
2
-t
1
)
V
deck
: deck or space volume
Q
cloud
-32-
Ocean Systems Engineering
Prof. Daejun CHANG
Frequency Combination Frequency Combination
-33-
Ocean Systems Engineering
Prof. Daejun CHANG
Frequency combination for Category 1 Frequency combination for Category 1
Position ID Probability Position ID Probability Type ID Probability
C 0.5 D 3.41106E-06 2.13192E-07
C 1.48149E-05 2.06506E-06
D 3.41106E-06
C 0.5 D 3.41106E-06 2.13192E-07
C 1.48149E-05 2.06506E-06
D 3.41106E-06
C 0.5 D 3.41106E-06 2.13192E-07
C 1.48149E-05 2.06506E-06
D 3.41106E-06
C 0.5 D 3.41106E-06 2.13192E-07
C 1.48149E-05 2.06506E-06
D 3.41106E-06
C 0.5 D 3.41106E-06 2.13192E-07
C 1.48149E-05 2.06506E-06
D 3.41106E-06
C 0.5 D 3.41106E-06 2.13192E-07
C 1.48149E-05 2.06506E-06
D 3.41106E-06
C 0.5 D 3.41106E-06 2.13192E-07
C 1.48149E-05 2.06506E-06
D 3.41106E-06
C 0.5 D 3.41106E-06 2.13192E-07
C 1.48149E-05 2.06506E-06
D 3.41106E-06
C 0.5 D 0 0
C 0 0
D 0
Overpressure,
barg
Ignition Position
(C:Center, E: Edge)
Ignition Type
(D:Discrete, C:Continuous)
E
Cloud Position
Cloud
Class
No of Cloud
Positions
Integrated
Probability
E
E
E
E
E
E
E
8
E
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.13
0.5
0.13 1
2
3
4
5
6
7
0.13
0.13
0.13
0.13
0.13
0.13
1 8
9
0.13
-34-
Ocean Systems Engineering
Prof. Daejun CHANG
Frequency combination for Category 5 Frequency combination for Category 5
-35-
Ocean Systems Engineering
Prof. Daejun CHANG
Exceedance Curve Exceedance Curve
-36-
Ocean Systems Engineering
Prof. Daejun CHANG
Overpressure detection Overpressure detection
The overpressure is function of time and position.
Consequently, one exceedance curve is about one detection position.
An average can be taken over several detection positions.
-37-
Ocean Systems Engineering
Prof. Daejun CHANG
Exceedance curve Exceedance curve
Cumulative frequency
The frequency of the higher over pressure is negligible compared to the
lower frequency.
1.0E-10
1.0E-09
1.0E-08
1.0E-07
1.0E-06
1.0E-05
1.0E-04
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Drag load, bar
C
u
m
u
l
a
t
i
v
e

f
r
e
q
u
e
n
c
y
,

/
y
r
Level 11.8m
Level 13.4m
Level 19.4m
Level 22.3m
Level 28.6m
-38-
Ocean Systems Engineering
Prof. Daejun CHANG
Miscellaneous Miscellaneous
-39-
Ocean Systems Engineering
Prof. Daejun CHANG
Some points not explained Some points not explained
Ventilation study
To simulate air change rate of the installation
The initial condition of the dispersion study is the results of the
ventilation study.
Cloud volume
Only the volume with concentration higher than the LEL is effective
for the explosion.
Windrose data
The probability distribution of the wind direction and speed.
FLACS supports these tasks.
-40-
Ocean Systems Engineering
Prof. Daejun CHANG
Review Review
-41-
Ocean Systems Engineering
Prof. Daejun CHANG
Explosion
The most catastrophic accident
Inherent to ocean plants handling flammable gas within congested space
Goal
To design structure against the explosion with a given frequency
(once in 10,000 years (10
-4
/yr) or once in 100,000 years (10
-5
/yr))
Task
To estimate the explosion load with the threshold frequency
If the explosion load exceeds the structure strength,
change the design for
- Structural strength
- Safety systems configuration and reliability
- Spatial congestion (or equipment arrangement)
- . . .
Explosion Risk Analysis An Example
None of the design changes is easy to implement. None of the design changes is easy to implement.
Precise detection in the early stage is the key. Precise detection in the early stage is the key.
-42-
Ocean Systems Engineering
Prof. Daejun CHANG
Continuous ignition
Ignition sources are exist.
Inherent to ocean plants handling flammable gas within congested space
Goal
To design structure against the explosion with a given frequency
(once in 10,000 years (10
-4
/yr) or once in 100,000 years (10
-5
/yr))
Task
To estimate the explosion load with the threshold frequency
If the explosion load exceeds the structure strength,
change the design for
- Structural strength
- Safety systems configuration and reliability
- Spatial congestion (or equipment arrangement)
- . . .
Continuous Ignition and Discrete Ignition
-43-
Ocean Systems Engineering
Prof. Daejun CHANG
Leak Gas Cloud Explosion
Factors affecting dispersion Factors affecting dispersion
-- Leak rate & direction Leak rate & direction
-- Wind speed & direction Wind speed & direction
-- Spatial congestion Spatial congestion
Factors affecting explosion Factors affecting explosion
-- Cloud position within the facility Cloud position within the facility
-- Ignition density Ignition density
-- Ignition position within the cloud Ignition position within the cloud
-- Spatial congestion Spatial congestion
Affecting safety systems Affecting safety systems
-- Gas detection system Gas detection system
-- Emergency shutdown system (ESD) Emergency shutdown system (ESD)
-- Power shutoff system isolating ignition sources Power shutoff system isolating ignition sources
How many conceivable cases?
Explosion Risk Analysis - Mechanism
Dispersion
Explosion
-44-
Ocean Systems Engineering
Prof. Daejun CHANG
1. Consequence Analysis
- 3D geometry model construction
- CFD simulation for ventilation, dispersion, and explosion
2. Explosion Frequency Estimation
3. Risk Presentation: Explosion overpressure vs. Probability
4. ALARP Demonstration
-45-
Ocean Systems Engineering
Prof. Daejun CHANG
Main deck
Mezzanine deck
1. Consequence Analysis 3D Model
Open volume = 87.6 %
Open volume = 89.5 %
-46-
Ocean Systems Engineering
Prof. Daejun CHANG
Ventilation
One wind velocity (4m/s) and 12 directions
Dispersion
Wind direction (3) Wind Speed (5) Leak Rate (8) Leak Position
(4) Leak Direction (2) = 960 Scenarios
112 scenarios are simulated and the rest are interpolated.
Explosion
Cloud Size (7) Cloud Position (3~9) Ignition Point (2~4)
= 128 scenarios are simulated
1. Consequence Analysis CFD Simulation
-47-
Ocean Systems Engineering
Prof. Daejun CHANG
OFON Wind rose
0
5
10
15
20
25
0
30
60
90
120
150
180
210
240
270
300
330
1.5
4
6
8
9
10
14
Ventilation Simulation
-48-
Ocean Systems Engineering
Prof. Daejun CHANG
Ventilation Study Results
The volume fraction of air change rate greater than 12 per hour is 99 %.
Well ventilated
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
0 100 200 300 400 500
Air changes per hour
C
u
m
u
l
a
t
i
v
e

f
r
e
q
u
e
n
c
y
,

/
y
r
0
78
155
0
30
60
90
120
150
180
210
240
270
300
330
-49-
Ocean Systems Engineering
Prof. Daejun CHANG
Leak Points for Dispersion Simulation
Seg11 (TEG
contactor inlet
cooler)
Seg7 (MP compressor
suction cooler)
Mezzanine deck
Seg9 (HP compressor
suction scrubber)
Seg1 (HP fuel gas
scrubber)
Main deck
-50-
Ocean Systems Engineering
Prof. Daejun CHANG
Example: Dispersion from a Leak
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000
Time, sec.
E
q
u
i
v
a
l
e
n
t

S
t
o
i
c
h
i
o
m
e
t
r
i
c

C
l
o
u
d
,

m
3
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
L
e
a
k

R
a
t
e
,

k
g
/
s
Cloud volume
Leak rate
ESD
Blowdown
Leak at Segment 1 in Main Deck at 24 kg/s
Wind from the south
-51-
Ocean Systems Engineering
Prof. Daejun CHANG
Explosion scenario with
cloud category 1 (800m
3
)
Explosion scenario with
cloud category 7
(11,350m
3
)
Gas Cloud and Ignition Position for Explosion Simulation
-52-
Ocean Systems Engineering
Prof. Daejun CHANG
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2
Time, sec.
O
v
e
r
p
r
e
s
s
u
r
e
,

b
a
r
g
Main deck floor
Mezzanine deck floor
Blast wall
Example: Explosion of a Cloud
-53-
Ocean Systems Engineering
Prof. Daejun CHANG
Discrete
Gas Age Maintenance Manning Technology Module Adjust Total
Pump 2.10E-07 0.90 0.85 1.00 0.60 25 0.46 2.41E-06
Electrical eq. * 2.70E-08 0.90 0.90 1.00 0.60 5089.5 0.49 6.68E-05
Other equipment * 2.10E-09 0.90 0.90 1.00 0.60 5089.5 0.49 5.19E-06
Other ** 1.70E-08 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 2544.8 1.00 4.33E-05
Personnel * 4.00E-08 1.00 0.95 0.60 1.00 5089.5 0.57 1.16E-04
* per m2 exposed to gas SUM 2.34E-04
** per m2 exposed to gas - Only one deck level
Continuous
Gas Age Maintenance Manning Technology Module Adjust Total
Hot work (# hours per 365*24h) 0.00E+00 - - - - - - 0.00E+00
Pump 9.60E-05 0.90 0.85 1.00 0.60 25 0.46 1.10E-03
Electrical equipment * 2.60E-06 0.90 0.90 1.00 0.60 5089.5 0.49 6.43E-03
Other equipment * 2.60E-06 0.90 0.90 1.00 0.60 5089.5 0.49 6.43E-03
Other ** 1.30E-06 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 2544.8 1.00 3.31E-03
Personnel * 3.00E-06 1.00 0.95 0.60 1.00 5089.5 0.57 8.70E-03
* per m2 exposed to gas SUM 2.60E-02
** per m2 exposed to gas - Only one deck level
2. Explosion Frequency Estimation
Ignition intensities Function of state and number of ignition sources
-54-
Ocean Systems Engineering
Prof. Daejun CHANG
1.0E-10
1.0E-09
1.0E-08
1.0E-07
1.0E-06
1.0E-05
1.0E-04
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Drag load, bar
C
u
m
u
l
a
t
i
v
e

f
r
e
q
u
e
n
c
y
,

/
y
r
Level 11.8m
Level 13.4m
Level 19.4m
Level 22.3m
Level 28.6m
3. Risk Presentation
-55-
Ocean Systems Engineering
Prof. Daejun CHANG
Conclusions Conclusions
-56-
Ocean Systems Engineering
Prof. Daejun CHANG
Conclusions
A lot of assumptions and interpolations
Still persuasive
Rooms for improvements
Difficult to verify
Only the assumption are observable.
But, the detailed process is hidden.
Quality control is important.
Compared to fire risk analysis
Explosion risk analysis is more systematic and quantitative
Need to apply a similar approach to fire risk analysis