Georgetown Debate Seminar 2011

Ozone Depletion DA RBDD Lab

1NCOZONE DA !"#$ S#RA#OSA#S C%&
#'e ozone i( re)o*ering now+ b,t )an (till be -amage-
SN 11 (Science News, Ozone hole on the mend
http://www.sciencenews.org/view/generic/id/742!/title/Ozone"hole"on"the"mend //#onnie$
Scientists m%& h%ve spotted Antar)ti)a.( ozone 'ole on t'e roa- to re)o*er/ + %t le%st % dec%de sooner th%n
the& tho'ght he%ling wo'ld (e notice%(le. )n *++, %n intern%tion%l %greement c%lled the ,ontre%l -rotocol (eg%n ph%sing
o't chemic%ls th%t h%ve gn%wed %w%& %t .%rth/s protective ozone l%&er . ,ost rese%rchers tho'ght it wo'ld t%0e
'ntil %t le%st 2!21 to detect the hole/s slow recover&, ('t re(ear)'er( in A,(tralia now )laim to 'a*e (een ozone
ti)0ing ,pwar- (in)e t'e late 11 10( 2 2he 0e& is to %cco'nt 3or l%rge &e%r4to4&e%r 3l'ct'%tions th%t h%ve o(sc'red %
gr%d'%l incre%se in the long4term evol'tion o3 ozone, s%&s %tmospheric scientist ,'rr& S%l(& o3 ,%c5'%rie 6niversit& in S&dne&.
7is te%m p'(lished its 3indings online ,%& 8 in 9eoph&sic%l :ese%rch ;etters. <irst spotted in *+=, the >nt%rctic ozone hole
w%s 5'ic0l& lin0ed to chemic%ls c%lled chloro3l'oroc%r(ons, emitted m%inl& in the Northern 7emisphere
('t concentr%ted over the So'th -ole (& %tmospheric circ'l%tion p%tterns. ?hlorine %toms 3rom these ?<?s re%ct
with ozone molec'les, se%son%ll& destro&ing the l%&er th%t shields .%rth 3rom c%ncer4c%'sing %nd crop4d%m%ging 'ltr%violet
r%di%tion. Scientists h%d predicted th%t ozone loss wo'ld (ottom o't %nd st%rt recovering (& now. 2he& @'st didn/t thin0 the& wo'ld
(e %(le detect th%t ch%nge &et, since ozone levels v%r& dr%m%tic%ll& 3rom &e%r to &e%r (ec%'se o3 compleA %tmospheric processes,
sometimes (& %lmost %s m'ch %s the m%gnit'de o3 the ozone hole itsel3. 2o (etter 'nderst%nd these &e%r4to4&e%r ozone
3l'ct'%tions, S%l(&/s te%m loo0ed %t d&n%mic%l in3l'ences s'ch %s w%ves th%t ripple thro'gh the pl%net/s %tmosphere m'ch li0e the
oce%n/s swells. 2he rese%rchers 3o'nd th%t winter d&n%mic%l 3%ctors closel& tr%c0ed how m'ch ozone w%s depleted the 3ollowing
spring. )n essence, these processes control how m'ch chlorine (re%0s %w%& 3rom ?<?s e%ch winter, which determines how m'ch
ozone will l%ter dis%ppe%r. Bnowing wh%t c%'sed these &e%r4to4&e%r ch%nges, the scientists co'ld then s'(tr%ct them o't,
'nm%s0ing the long4term sign%l o3 ozone. >3ter pl'mmeting since the %n%l&sis (eg%n in *+7+, th%t sign%l leveled
o33 %nd (eg%n creeping 'p %3ter *++8, S%l(& s%&s. 6sing di33erent %n%l&tic%l techni5'es, ot'er ()ienti(t( 'a*e
reporte- (eeing a (low-own in t'e rate o3 ozone -e)line, ('t not %n %ct'%l recover&. Not %ll eAperts %re
convinced (& the new wor0. 2he lin0 (etween &e%r4to4&e%r d&n%mics %nd ozone levels seems strong now ('t co'ld ch%nge on
3'rther %n%l&sis, s%&s #%rr&n C%'gh, %n %tmospheric scientist %t Dohns 7op0ins 6niversit&. ) eApect >nt%rctic ozone to (e slowl&
recovering, he s%&s, ('t wo'ld h%ve tho'ght th%t we need sever%l more &e%rs o3 d%t% to st%tistic%ll& show this. >tmospheric
chemist -%'l Eo'ng o3 the N%tion%l Oce%nic %nd >tmospheric >dministr%tion .%rth S&stem :ese%rch ;%(or%tor& in Fo'lder, ?olo.,
%grees. 4/ re(pon(e i( (lig'tl/ )a,tio,(+ 5 he s%&s. )t/s % (old cl%im. S%l(& s%&s he/s con3ident the ozone
'ptic0 represents % re%l trendG it h%s gone on %lmost %s long %s the decline o(served d'ring the *+!s
%nd *++! s. 7e now w%nts to develop % w%& to (etter predict 3't're ozone levels. Chether or not the ozone hole h%s
(een spotted recovering, its long4term prognosis c%lls 3or m%n& more dec%des o3 sic0 le%ve G it is not
eApected to he%l 3'll& (e3ore 2!7!. 2he northern pole is %lso h%ving its own ozone iss'esG this spring, ozone thinned over
the >rctic more th%n scientists h%ve ever seen (SN: 4/+/**, p. *2$.
Ea)' la,n)' 'arm( t'e ozone la/er 6 StratoSat( are t'e alternati*e2
Selb/ 711
#%rin H )ntern%ll& 5'oting #r. 7elen ?%lodicott %nd 2he 62N. :e%der H #%rin is the >I- S%les J
,%r0eting, B%ns%s ?it& So'thern :%ilw%& H ?o%l %nd -etrole'm ?o0e F'siness 6nit. ,r. Sel(& holds %
m%ster o3 ('siness %dministr%tion %nd % (%chelor o3 science in ('siness m%n%gement 3rom .mpori%
St%te 6niversit&. 7e w%s recentl& n%med (& .mpori% St%te 6niversit& F'siness School %s %n O'tst%nding
>l'mni H <lo%t to Sp%ce H ,%& *7
th
http://d%rinsel(&.*hw&.com/3lo%ttosp%ce.html
>n old 2'r0ish prover( s%&s th%t, no m%tter how 3%r down the wrong ro%d &o' h%ve gone, &o' c%n %lw%&s t'rn
(%c0. Cith the 3%te o3 the environment %t st%0e, the entire roc0etr& %nd @et progr%m m'st (e repl%ced (& %
m'ch more (enign w%& o3 getting the s%me @o( %ccomplished. F& 'tilizing the l%ws o3 ('o&%nc& to o'r
%dv%nt%ge, even concepts s'ch %s K3'elless 3lightK co'ld h%ppen. N>S> sp%ce sh'ttle destro&s the ozone l%&er. 6tne
:e%der, D'l& *++*. #espite %ll the cover%ge given to the growing hole in the ozone l%&er, little or no %ttention h%s (een p%id
to #r. 7elen ?%ldicottKs cl%im th%t the sp%ce sh'ttle is one o3 the ozone l%&erKs (iggest destro&ers. >ccording
to ?%ldicott, 2=! tons o3 h&drochloric %cid %re rele%sed into the %ir ever& time % sp%ce sh'ttle is l%'nched. With each launch,
one 5'%rter o3 * percent o3 the ozone is destro&ed. So 3%r, cl%ims ?%ldicott, the sp%ce sh'ttle h%s destro&ed *!L o3 the
ozone. (D'l& *++*$ )n %ddition, two Soviet roc0et scientists h%ve w%rned th%t the solid43'el roc0et (oosters 'sed on the sh'ttle
rele%se *7 tons o3 ozone4destro&ing chlorine molec'les into the %tmosphere with ever& l%'nch, %s well %s seven tons o3 nitrogen
(%nother ozone depleter$, 17 tons c%r(on dioAide (% m%@or contri('tor to the greenho'se e33ect$, %nd *77 tons o3 %l'min'm oAide
(lin0ed to >lzheimerKs dise%se$. Other solid43'el roc0ets, s'ch %s the 6.S. #elt% roc0et, the 6.S. 2it%n, %nd the <rench >ri%ne I, %lso
contri('te to ozone destr'ction. )tKs K3riendl& 3%scismK with the Kple%se43orceK %ll the w%& to the (%n0 with these milit%ristic
technologies. So, how co'ld we re%ll& get to the edge o3 sp%ce, %nd not %t the eApense o3 ,other .%rthM >
1
8881NC
Georgetown Debate Seminar 2011
Ozone Depletion DA RBDD Lab
comp%n& c%lled >erost%r %lre%d& prod'ces str%tospheric (%lloons th%t eAp%nd li0e p'mp0ins when %scending. 2his ple%ting
techni5'e o3 the (%lloon %llows it to re%ch 'nhe%rd4o3 %ltit'des 2he& %re c%p%(le o3 c%rr&ing % siA tho's%nd
po'nd p%&lo%d to *1!,!!! 3eet (24.8 miles$ %(ove se% level. >t th%t %ltit'de, the (%lloons %re %(ove ++.=L o3 the %tmosphere
%nd the scienti3ic instr'ments h%ve %n 'no(str'cted view o3 sp%ce. 2hen, %t the edge o3 sp%ce, % t&pe o3 ion sp%ce drive
prop'lsion co'ld (e 'sed to tr%vel o't 3'rther. )m%gine how m'ch lighter, less c'm(ersome %nd less eApensive
the entire sp%ce progr%m (ecomes when this roc0etr& st'33 gets the %Ae (wh%t in the world %re the& spewing
%n&w%&M$. Str%tospheric (%llooncr%3t co'ld repl%ce most o3 the re5'irements 3or roc0et l%'nches. )t %ppe%rs
th%t technolog& is st%rting to he%l technolog&Ks woes. No longer do we need to 'se 3orce to get o't there %t the
eApense o3 the environment. Now we c%n get invited o't to the edge o3 sp%ce, %nd %t % 3r%ction o3 the
cost o3 roc0etr&.
E9tin)tion
Smit' an- Daniel 11 (2&rrel C. Smith, Dr., -h.#. 2:C Sp%ce J .lectronics 9ro'p %nd Dohn :.
.dw%rds #%niel -ilson .nvironment%l ,%n%gement Fr%nch S'mm%r& o3 the )mp%ct o3 ;%'nch Iehicle
.Ah%'st %nd #eor(iting Sp%ce %nd ,eteorite #e(ris on Str%tospheric Ozone http://www.dtic.mil/cgi4
(in/9et2:#ocM;oc%tionN62JdocN9et2:#oc.pd3J>#N>#>4*41!8 //#onnie$

2he ozone l%&er is )riti)al to li3e on Eart' be)a,(e it ab(orb( biologi)all/ -amaging (olar ,ltra*iolet
ra-iation. 2he %mo'nt o3 sol%r 6I r%di%tion received %t %n& p%rtic'l%r loc%tion on the .%rth/s s'r3%ce
depends 'pon the position o3 the S'n %(ove the horizon, the %mo'nt o3 ozone in the %tmosphere, %nd loc%l
clo'diness %nd poll'tion. Scientists %gree th%t, in the %(sence o3 ch%nges in clo'ds or poll'tion, decre%ses in %tmospheric
ozone le%d to incre%ses in gro'nd4level 6I r%di%tion (,%rtin O*++P, C,O O*++P$. -rior to the l%te *+!s, instr'ments
with the necess%r& %cc'r%c& %nd st%(ilit& 3or me%s'rement o3 sm%ll long4term trends in gro'nd4level 6I4F were not %v%il%(le.
2here3ore, the d%t% 3rom 'r(%n loc%tions with older, less4speci%lized instr'ments provide m'ch less reli%(le
in3orm%tion, especi%ll& since sim'lt%neo's me%s'rements o3 ch%nges in clo'diness or loc%l poll'tion %re
not %v%il%(le. Chen high45'%lit& me%s'rements were m%de in other %re%s 3%r 3rom m%@or cities %nd their %ssoci%ted %ir poll'tion,
-e)rea(e( in ozone 'a*e reg,larl/ been a))ompanie- b/ in)rea(e( in :;<B C,O O*++P$. 2here3ore, this
incre%se in 'ltr%violet r%di%tion received %t the .%rthKs s'r3%ce wo'ld li0el& incre%se the incidence o3 s0in
c%ncer %nd mel%nom%, %s well %s possi(l& imp%iring the h'm%n imm'ne s&stem (Berr et %l., O*++1P$. #%m%ge
to terrestri%l %nd %5'%tic ecos&stems %lso m%& occ'r (,%rtin O*++P, C,O O*++P$.
2
Georgetown Debate Seminar 2011
Ozone Depletion DA RBDD Lab
1NCOZONE DA !"#$O:# S#RA#OSA#S C%&
#'e ozone i( re)o*ering now+ b,t )an (till be -amage-
SN 11 (Science News, Ozone hole on the mend
http://www.sciencenews.org/view/generic/id/742!/title/Ozone"hole"on"the"mend //#onnie$
Scientists m%& h%ve spotted Antar)ti)a.( ozone 'ole on t'e roa- to re)o*er/+ %t le%st % dec%de sooner th%n
the& tho'ght he%ling wo'ld (e notice%(le. )n *++, %n intern%tion%l %greement c%lled the ,ontre%l -rotocol (eg%n ph%sing
o't chemic%ls th%t h%ve gn%wed %w%& %t .%rth/s protective ozone l%&er. ,ost rese%rchers tho'ght it wo'ld t%0e
'ntil %t le%st 2!21 to detect the hole/s slow recover&, ('t re(ear)'er( in A,(tralia now )laim to 'a*e (een ozone
ti)0ing ,pwar- (in)e t'e late 1110(2 2he 0e& is to %cco'nt 3or l%rge &e%r4to4&e%r 3l'ct'%tions th%t h%ve o(sc'red %
gr%d'%l incre%se in the long4term evol'tion o3 ozone, s%&s %tmospheric scientist ,'rr& S%l(& o3 ,%c5'%rie 6niversit& in S&dne&.
7is te%m p'(lished its 3indings online ,%& 8 in 9eoph&sic%l :ese%rch ;etters. <irst spotted in *+=, the >nt%rctic ozone hole
w%s 5'ic0l& lin0ed to chemic%ls c%lled chloro3l'oroc%r(ons, emitted m%inl& in the Northern 7emisphere
('t concentr%ted over the So'th -ole (& %tmospheric circ'l%tion p%tterns. ?hlorine %toms 3rom these ?<?s re%ct
with ozone molec'les, se%son%ll& destro&ing the l%&er th%t shields .%rth 3rom c%ncer4c%'sing %nd crop4d%m%ging 'ltr%violet
r%di%tion. Scientists h%d predicted th%t ozone loss wo'ld (ottom o't %nd st%rt recovering (& now. 2he& @'st didn/t thin0 the& wo'ld
(e %(le detect th%t ch%nge &et, since ozone levels v%r& dr%m%tic%ll& 3rom &e%r to &e%r (ec%'se o3 compleA %tmospheric processes,
sometimes (& %lmost %s m'ch %s the m%gnit'de o3 the ozone hole itsel3. 2o (etter 'nderst%nd these &e%r4to4&e%r ozone
3l'ct'%tions, S%l(&/s te%m loo0ed %t d&n%mic%l in3l'ences s'ch %s w%ves th%t ripple thro'gh the pl%net/s %tmosphere m'ch li0e the
oce%n/s swells. 2he rese%rchers 3o'nd th%t winter d&n%mic%l 3%ctors closel& tr%c0ed how m'ch ozone w%s depleted the 3ollowing
spring. )n essence, these processes control how m'ch chlorine (re%0s %w%& 3rom ?<?s e%ch winter, which determines how m'ch
ozone will l%ter dis%ppe%r. Bnowing wh%t c%'sed these &e%r4to4&e%r ch%nges, the scientists co'ld then s'(tr%ct them o't,
'nm%s0ing the long4term sign%l o3 ozone. >3ter pl'mmeting since the %n%l&sis (eg%n in *+7+, th%t sign%l leveled
o33 %nd (eg%n creeping 'p %3ter *++8, S%l(& s%&s. 6sing di33erent %n%l&tic%l techni5'es, ot'er ()ienti(t( 'a*e
reporte- (eeing a (low-own in t'e rate o3 ozone -e)line, ('t not %n %ct'%l recover&. Not %ll eAperts %re
convinced (& the new wor0. 2he lin0 (etween &e%r4to4&e%r d&n%mics %nd ozone levels seems strong now ('t co'ld ch%nge on
3'rther %n%l&sis, s%&s #%rr&n C%'gh, %n %tmospheric scientist %t Dohns 7op0ins 6niversit&. ) eApect >nt%rctic ozone to (e slowl&
recovering, he s%&s, ('t wo'ld h%ve tho'ght th%t we need sever%l more &e%rs o3 d%t% to st%tistic%ll& show this. >tmospheric
chemist -%'l Eo'ng o3 the N%tion%l Oce%nic %nd >tmospheric >dministr%tion .%rth S&stem :ese%rch ;%(or%tor& in Fo'lder, ?olo.,
%grees. 4/ re(pon(e i( (lig'tl/ )a,tio,(+5 he s%&s. )t/s % (old cl%im. S%l(& s%&s he/s con3ident the ozone
'ptic0 represents % re%l trendG it h%s gone on %lmost %s long %s the decline o(served d'ring the *+!s
%nd *++!s. 7e now w%nts to develop % w%& to (etter predict 3't're ozone levels. Chether or not the ozone hole h%s
(een spotted recovering, its long4term prognosis c%lls 3or m%n& more dec%des o3 sic0 le%veG it is not
eApected to he%l 3'll& (e3ore 2!7!. 2he northern pole is %lso h%ving its own ozone iss'esG this spring, ozone thinned over
the >rctic more th%n scientists h%ve ever seen (SN: 4/+/**, p. *2$.
E*er/ (atellite la,n)' 'a( a-*er(e impa)t( on t'e ozonet'e impa)t i( total
-e(tr,)tion
GL 11 (9reen ;e3t, :oc0ets destro&ing ozone l%&er, s%& scientists
http://www.greenle3t.org.%'/node/*47 //#onnie$
2wo Soviet roc0et scientists h%ve w%rned th%t the solid 3'el roc0et (oosters 'sed on the 6S sp%ce sh'ttle rele%se *7
tons o3 ozone4destro&ing chlorine molec'les into the atmo(p'ere wit' e*er/ la,n)'. I%ler& F'rd%0ov, co4
designer o3 the :'ssi%n Q.nergi&%Q roc0et engine, pointed o't th%t e%ch sh'ttle l%'nch prod'ces seven tons o3 nitrogen (%nother
ozone depleter$, 17 tons o3 c%r(on dioAide (% m%@or contri('tor to the greenho'se e33ect$ %nd *77 tons o3 %l'mini'm
oAide (lin0ed to >lzheimerKs dise%se$ (e3ore re%ching %n %ltit'de o3 1* miles. F'rd%0ov %lso notes th%t the histor& o3 ozone
depletion )orrelate( )lo(el/ wit' the incre%se o3 chlorine disch%rged (& solid 3'el roc0ets since *+*.
Soviet roc0ets emplo& % 3'el com(in%tion th%t is 2!!! times less d%m%ging th%n the sh'ttleKs ('t which still destro&s *=!! tons o3
ozone per l%'nch. >ccording to F'rd%0ov %nd his colle%g'e, I&%chesl%v <ilin, % single sh'ttle l%'nch c%n destro& %s
m'ch %s *! million tons o3 ozone. #'i( mean( t'at =00 total (',ttle 3lig't( will )ompletel/ -e(tro/
t'e Eart'>( prote)ti*e ozone ('iel-2 All ot'er (oli- 3,el ro)0et( al(o )ontrib,te to ozone
-e(tr,)tion2 Ne%r the top o3 the list %re the 6S #elt% roc0et (which destro&s million tons per l%'nch$, the 6S 2it%n, %nd the
<rench >ri%ne I. )n %n %rticle p'(lished origin%ll& in So'th, F'rd%0ov w%rned th%t, %t present r%tes o3 incre%se, roc0ets will soon (e
po'ring *!!,!!! tons o3 chlorine %nd nitrogen into the %tmosphere %nn'%ll&.

E9tin)tion
Smit' an- Daniel 11 (2&rrel C. Smith, Dr., -h.#. 2:C Sp%ce J .lectronics 9ro'p %nd Dohn :.
.dw%rds #%niel -ilson .nvironment%l ,%n%gement Fr%nch S'mm%r& o3 the )mp%ct o3 ;%'nch Iehicle
.Ah%'st %nd #eor(iting Sp%ce %nd ,eteorite #e(ris on Str%tospheric Ozone http://www.dtic.mil/cgi4
(in/9et2:#ocM;oc%tionN62JdocN9et2:#oc.pd3J>#N>#>4*41!8 //#onnie$
=
Georgetown Debate Seminar 2011
Ozone Depletion DA RBDD Lab

2he ozone l%&er is )riti)al to li3e on Eart' be)a,(e it ab(orb( biologi)all/ -amaging (olar ,ltra*iolet
ra-iation. 2he %mo'nt o3 sol%r 6I r%di%tion received %t %n& p%rtic'l%r loc%tion on the .%rth/s s'r3%ce
depends 'pon the position o3 the S'n %(ove the horizon, the %mo'nt o3 ozone in the %tmosphere, %nd loc%l
clo'diness %nd poll'tion. Scientists %gree th%t, in the %(sence o3 ch%nges in clo'ds or poll'tion, decre%ses in %tmospheric
ozone le%d to incre%ses in gro'nd4level 6I r%di%tion (,%rtin O*++P, C,O O*++P$. -rior to the l%te *+!s, instr'ments
with the necess%r& %cc'r%c& %nd st%(ilit& 3or me%s'rement o3 sm%ll long4term trends in gro'nd4level 6I4F were not %v%il%(le.
2here3ore, the d%t% 3rom 'r(%n loc%tions with older, less4speci%lized instr'ments provide m'ch less reli%(le
in3orm%tion, especi%ll& since sim'lt%neo's me%s'rements o3 ch%nges in clo'diness or loc%l poll'tion %re
not %v%il%(le. Chen high45'%lit& me%s'rements were m%de in other %re%s 3%r 3rom m%@or cities %nd their %ssoci%ted %ir poll'tion,
-e)rea(e( in ozone 'a*e reg,larl/ been a))ompanie- b/ in)rea(e( in :;<B C,O O*++P$. 2here3ore, this
incre%se in 'ltr%violet r%di%tion received %t the .%rthKs s'r3%ce wo'ld li0el& incre%se the incidence o3 s0in
c%ncer %nd mel%nom%, %s well %s possi(l& imp%iring the h'm%n imm'ne s&stem (Berr et %l., O*++1P$. #%m%ge
to terrestri%l %nd %5'%tic ecos&stems %lso m%& occ'r (,%rtin O*++P, C,O O*++P$.
?
Georgetown Debate Seminar 2011
Ozone Depletion DA RBDD Lab
"4%AC# CALC:L:S
De(tr,)tion o3 t'e ozone ma0e( e9tin)tion ine*itablewe will all be e9po(e- to
'arm3,l ra-ioa)ti*e ra/(2
"t al(o -e*a(tate( terre(trial bio<-+ e9tin)tion
#%vid N. Diner, ,%@or in the D'dge >dvoc%te 9ener%lKs ?orps o3 the 6nited St%tes >rm&, 111? (2he
>rm& >nd 2he .nd%ngered Species >ct: ChoKs .nd%ngering ChomM, Military Law Review (*41 ,il. ;.
:ev. *8*$, Cinter, >v%il%(le Online to S'(scri(ing )nstit'tions vi% ;eAis4NeAis$
4. Fiologic%l #iversit&. H 2he m%in premise o3 species preserv%tion is th%t diversit& is (etter th%n simplicit&. 77
>s the c'rrent m%ss eAtinction h%s progressed, the worldKs (iologic%l diversit& gener%ll& h%s decre%sed. 2his trend occ'rs within
ecos&stems (& red'cing the n'm(er o3 species, %nd within species (& red'cing the n'm(er o3 individ'%ls. Foth trends c%rr& serio's
3't're implic%tions. 7 OR*71P Fiologic%ll& diverse ecos&stems %re ch%r%cterized (& % l%rge n'm(er o3
speci%list species, 3illing n%rrow ecologic%l niches. 2hese ecos&stems inherentl& %re more st%(le th%n
less diverse s&stems. Q2he more compleA the ecos&stem, the more s'ccess3'll& it c%n resist % stress. . . .
OlPi0e % net, in which e%ch 0not is connected to others (& sever%l str%nds, s'ch % 3%(ric c%n resist coll%pse
(etter th%n % simple, 'n(r%nched circle o3 thre%ds 44 which i3 c't %n&where (re%0s down %s % whole.Q 7+
F& c%'sing widespre%d eAtinctions, h'm%ns h%ve %rti3ici%ll& simpli3ied m%n& ecos&stems. >s (iologic
simplicit& incre%ses, so does the ris0 o3 ecos&stem 3%il're. 2he spre%ding S%h%r% #esert in >3ric%, %nd the
d'st(owl conditions o3 the *+1!s in the 6nited St%tes %re rel%tivel& mild eA%mples o3 wh%t might (e
eApected i3 this trend contin'es. 2heoretic%ll&, e%ch new %nim%l or pl%nt eAtinction, with %ll its diml&
perceived %nd intertwined %33ects, co'ld c%'se tot%l ecos&stem coll%pse %nd h'm%n eAtinction. .%ch new
eAtinction incre%ses the ris0 o3 dis%ster. ;i0e % mech%nic removing, one (& one, the rivets 3rom %n
%ircr%3tKs wings, ! m%n0ind m%& (e edging closer to the %(&ss.
An-+ it -e(tro/( t'e o)ean(+ t'at.( Smit'+ e9tin)tion
:o(in B'ndis Craig, >ssoci%te -ro3essor o3 ;%w %t the )ndi%n% 6niversit& School o3 ;%w, 200= (2%0ing
Steps 2ow%rd ,%rine Cilderness -rotectionM <ishing %nd ?or%l :ee3 ,%rine :eserves in <lorid% %nd
7%w%ii, McGeorge Law Review (14 ,c9eorge ;. :ev. *==$, Cinter, >v%il%(le Online vi% S'(scri(ing
)nstit'tions vi% ;eAis4NeAis$
Fiodiversit& %nd ecos&stem 3'nction %rg'ments 3or conserving m%rine ecos&stems %lso eAist, @'st %s the& do 3or terrestri%l
ecos&stems, ('t these %rg'ments h%ve th's 3%r r%rel& (een r%ised in politic%l de(%tes. <or eA%mple, (esides signi3ic%nt to'rism
v%l'es 4 the most economic%ll& v%l'%(le ecos&stem service cor%l ree3s provide, worldwide 4 cor%l ree3s protect %g%inst storms %nd
d%mpen other environment%l 3l'ct'%tions, services worth more th%n ten times the ree3sK v%l'e 3or 3ood prod'ction. n=8 C%ste
tre%tment is %nother signi3ic%nt, non4eAtr%ctive ecos&stem 3'nction th%t int%ct cor%l ree3 ecos&stems provide. n=7 ,ore gener%ll&,
Qoce%n ecos&stems pl%& % m%@or role in the glo(%l geochemic%l c&cling o3 %ll the elements th%t represent
the (%sic ('ilding (loc0s o3 living org%nisms, c%r(on, nitrogen, oA&gen, phosphor's, %nd s'l3'r, %s well %s other less
%('nd%nt ('t necess%r& elements.Q n= )n % ver& re%l %nd direct sense, there3ore, h'm%n degr%d%tion o3 m%rine
ecos&stems imp%irs the pl%netKs %(ilit& to s'pport li3e. ,%int%ining (iodiversit& is o3ten critic%l to
m%int%ining the 3'nctions o3 m%rine ecos&stems. ?'rrent evidence shows th%t, in gener%l, %n ecos&stemKs
%(ilit& to 0eep 3'nctioning in the 3%ce o3 dist'r(%nce is strongl& dependent on its (iodiversit&, Qindic%ting
th%t more diverse ecos&stems %re more st%(le.Q n=+ ?or%l ree3 ecos&stems %re p%rtic'l%rl& dependent on their
(iodiversit&. OR28=P ,ost ecologists %gree th%t the compleAit& o3 inter%ctions %nd degree o3 interrel%tedness %mong component
species is higher on cor%l ree3s th%n in %n& other m%rine environment. 2his implies th%t the ecos&stem 3'nctioning th%t prod'ces the
most highl& v%l'ed components is %lso compleA %nd th%t m%n& otherwise insigni3ic%nt species h%ve strong e33ects on s'st%ining the
rest o3 the ree3 s&stem. n8! 2h's, m%int%ining %nd restoring the (iodiversit& o3 m%rine ecos&stems is critic%l to
m%int%ining %nd restoring the ecos&stem services th%t the& provide. Non4'se (iodiversit& v%l'es 3or m%rine
ecos&stems h%ve (een c%lc'l%ted in the w%0e o3 m%rine dis%sters, li0e the .AAon I%ldez oil spill in >l%s0%. n8* Simil%r c%lc'l%tions
co'ld derive preserv%tion v%l'es 3or m%rine wilderness. 7owever, economic v%l'e, or economic v%l'e e5'iv%lents, sho'ld not (e
Qthe sole or even prim%r& @'sti3ic%tion 3or conserv%tion o3 oce%n ecos&stems. .thic%l %rg'ments %lso h%ve consider%(le 3orce %nd
merit.Q n82 >t the 3ore3ront o3 s'ch %rg'ments sho'ld (e % recognition o3 how little we 0now %(o't the se% 4 %nd %(o't the %ct'%l
e33ect o3 h'm%n %ctivities on m%rine ecos&stems. 2he 6nited St%tes h%s tr%dition%ll& 3%iled to protect m%rine ecos&stems (ec%'se it
w%s di33ic'lt to detect %nthropogenic h%rm to the oce%ns, ('t we now 0now th%t s'ch h%rm is occ'rring 4 even tho'gh we %re not
completel& s're %(o't c%'s%tion or %(o't how to 3iA ever& pro(lem. .cos&stems li0e the NC7) cor%l ree3 ecos&stem sho'ld inspire
l%wm%0ers %nd polic&m%0ers to %dmit th%t most o3 the time we re%ll& do not 0now wh%t we %re doing to the se% %nd hence sho'ld
(e preserving m%rine wilderness whenever we c%n 4 especi%ll& when the 6nited St%tes h%s within its territor& rel%tivel& pristine
m%rine ecos&stems th%t m%& (e 'ni5'e in the world. Ce m%& not 0now m'ch %(o't the se%, ('t we do 0now this m'ch: i3 we 0ill
@
888"4%AC#
Georgetown Debate Seminar 2011
Ozone Depletion DA RBDD Lab
the oce%n we 0ill o'rselves, %nd we will t%0e most o3 the (iosphere with 's. 2he Fl%c0 Se% is %lmost de%d, n81
its once4compleA %nd prod'ctive ecos&stem %lmost entirel& repl%ced (& % monoc'lt're o3 com( @ellies, Qst%rving o't 3ish %nd
dolphins, empt&ing 3ishermenKs nets, %nd converting the we( o3 li3e into (r%inless, wr%ith4li0e (lo(s o3 @ell&.Q n84 ,ore import%ntl&,
the Fl%c0 Se% is not necess%ril& 'ni5'e.
A-opt t'e pre)a,tionar/ prin)ipal or we ri(0 e9tin)tion
4i0'ailo* ? (>.>. ,i0h%ilov E'.9. Sh%3er )nstit'te o3 ?osmoph&sic%l :ese%rch %nd >eronom&, 1*
;enin >ve., 877+* E%0'ts0, :'ssi% Ozone ;%&er %nd the <orm%tion o3 the Ozone 7ole
http://%rAiv.org/3tp/ph&sics/p%pers/!4!*/!4!**1=.pd3 //#onnie$
)3 we now t%0e no prec%'tions, the 3ollowing sit'%tion c%n occ'r. >3ter % time, eAtr%terrestri%l people will
%rrive on o'r li3ele(( Eart' %nd see % pl%c%rd QNo roc0etsSQ One o3 the new4comers will s%& the %nother
Q.videntl&, the& re%lized the d%nger st%rting 3rom the roc0ets, ('t here @'st one o3 the ozone holes
covered them.
A
Georgetown Debate Seminar 2011
Ozone Depletion DA RBDD Lab
L"NEAR "4%AC# 4OD:LE
Ea)' la,n)' )a,(e( a B,anti3iable in)rea(e in (0in )an)er -eat'(2
Cal-i)ott 7?
#r. 7elen ,%r& ?%ldicott is %n >'str%li%n ph&sici%n, %'thor, %nd %nti4n'cle%r %dvoc%te who h%s 3o'nded
sever%l %ssoci%tions. She h%s (een %w%rded 2! honor%r& doctor%l degrees %nd w%s nomin%ted 3or the
No(el -e%ce -rize (& No(el ;%'re%te ;in's -%'ling. 2he Smithsoni%n )nstit'tion h%s n%med ?%ldicott %s
one o3 the most in3l'enti%l women o3 the 2!th cent'r& H 3rom her (oo0 H 2he new n'cle%r d%nger: 9eorge
C. F'shKs milit%r&4ind'stri%l compleA H p%ge *41

Solid 3'el 'sed in 6.S. roc0ets %nd in the sp%ce sh'ttle rele%ses chlorine %toms into the str%tosphere. 2he sp%ce
sh'ttle, 3or eA%mple, rele%ses 24! tons o3 concentr%ted h&drochloric %cid (7?)$ %t e%ch l%'nch. ?hlorine, which splits o33 3rom the
7?) molec'le, is the s'(st%nce th%t com(ines with %nd destro&s ozone molec'les. Scientists in *++ predicted th%t i3 N>S>
contin'ed to l%'nch solid43'el roc0ets (oosters %t % r%te o3 ten per &e%r, this wo'ld ind'ce % *! percent
depletion in the ozone l%&er (& 2!!=. Eet the n'm(er o3 civili%n %nd milit%r& l%'nches h%ve incre%sed %l%rmingl& since th%t
prediction w%s m%de. (<or e%ch * percent decre%se in str%tospheric ozone there will (e % 4 to 8 percent
incre%se in s0in c%ncer. Ce %re eAperiencing these e33ects in >'str%li%, where we see % proli3er%tion o3 s0in4c%ncer clinics
within o'r cities, %nd where the hole in the ozone l%&er o3 the so'thern hemisphere w%s l%rger in the &e%r 2!!! th%n ever (e3ore$.
Ea)' time i( in-epen-entl/ ba-t'e impa)t i( linear ozone -e(tr,)tion
Siegel 10 (;enn&, is the chie3 rese%rcher 3or the N%tion%l toAics ?%mp%ign <'nd/s ,ilit%r& 2oAics
-ro@ect. No <ree ;%'nch pg 24, 3rom mother @ones m%g%zine, %ccessed (& me%ns o3 google (oo0s,
#onnie$
-'nct'ring the ozone: An/ time NASA or the %ir 3orce s'ccess3'll& l%'nches % solid roc0et, tens o3
tho's%nds o3 po'nds o3 chlorine, in the 3orm o3 h&drogen chloride, %re delivered directl& to the
str%tosphere, w'ere t'e/ 'elp ('re- t'e ozone la/er2 Ea)' (',ttle l%'nch directl& delivers *=!,!!!
po'nds o3 chlorine to the 'pper %tmosphere. Chile the protectors right3'll& 3oc's on limiting emissions o3
?<?4**1 (& electronic %nd other 3%ctories, consider this: ever& two sh'ttle l%'nches deliver to the
str%tosphere 3%r more ozone4depleting chemic%ls th%n % &e%rs worth o3 ?<?4**1 3rom ?%li3orni%/s worst
3%ctor& o33ender.
C
Georgetown Debate Seminar 2011
Ozone Depletion DA RBDD Lab
!AR4"NG "4%AC# 4OD:LE
Ozone -e(tr,)tion )a,(e( global warming
4i0'ailo* ? (>.>. ,i0h%ilov E'.9. Sh%3er )nstit'te o3 ?osmoph&sic%l :ese%rch %nd >eronom&, 1*
;enin >ve., 877+* E%0'ts0, :'ssi% Ozone ;%&er %nd the <orm%tion o3 the Ozone 7ole
http://%rAiv.org/3tp/ph&sics/p%pers/!4!*/!4!**1=.pd3 //#onnie$
>s it w%s reported in newsp%pers sever%l &e%rs %go, one 3ine d%& %(ove the so'thern region o3 ?hile, ne%r -'nt%4>ren%s the ozone
hole is %ppe%red. >s % res'lt o3 the 'ltr%violet %ction, the h'ndreds o3 cows %nd sheep/s (ec%me (linded,
people c%'ght ('rns. >lso, the decre%se o3 the tot%l thic0ness o3 the ozone l%&er will )a,(e t'e
noti)eable warming o3 )limate, be)a,(e ozone ta0e( an a)ti*e part in t'e )reation o3 a 3rame e33e)t.
2here(&, the signi3ic%nt ch%nges o3 we%ther in some regions o3 the .%rth, 3loods, % higher o3 the oce%n
w%ter level %nd other ver& serio's conse5'ences wo'ld (e eApected. >s % res'lt o3 people %ctivities, more %nd
more poll'tion s'(st%nces penetr%te into the %tmosphere. > p%rt o3 these s'(st%nces is h%rm3'l 3or ozone, promoting its destr'ction.
>mong these %re the compo'nds o3 nitrogen, h&drogen %nd chlorine. Nitrogen penetr%tes into the %tmosphere in the sh%pe o3
nitrogeno's oAides, when nitrogeno's 3ertilizers %re 'sed %nd %t %n e@ection o3 spent g%ses in 3lights o3 high4%ltit'de %irpl%nes. 2he
enterprises emitting meth%ne into the %tmosphere %nd %lso the 3lights o3 the high%ltit'de %irpl%nes %nd roc0ets %re the m%@or
contri('tes o3 h&drogen compo'nds. ?hlorine penetr%tes into the %tmosphere %s % res'lt o3 the 'se o3 chlorine/s org%nic
components, 3irst o3 %ll 3reon, in the home %nd ind'stri%ll&.
D
Georgetown Debate Seminar 2011
Ozone Depletion DA RBDD Lab
OZONE RECO;ER"NG
Ozone $ole tren-ing in t'e rig't -ire)tion now2
!itze 711
>leA%ndr% Citze is % senior news %nd 3e%t'res editor %t N%t're m%g%zine in C%shington, #.?. She
covered the ph&sic%l sciences 3or 2he #%ll%s ,orning News H Science News, D'ne 4th, 2!**G Iol.*7+
T*2 (p. *=$ H http://www.sciencenews.org/view/generic/id/742!/title/Ozone"hole"on"the"mend
Scientists m%& h%ve spotted >nt%rctic%/s ozone hole on the ro%d to recover&, %t le%st % dec%de sooner th%n the&
tho'ght he%ling wo'ld (e notice%(le. )n *++, %n intern%tion%l %greement c%lled the ,ontre%l -rotocol (eg%n ph%sing o't
chemic%ls th%t h%ve gn%wed %w%& %t .%rth/s protective ozone l%&er. ,ost rese%rchers tho'ght it wo'ld t%0e 'ntil %t
le%st 2!21 to detect the hole/s slow recover&, ('t rese%rchers in >'str%li% now cl%im to h%ve seen ozone tic0ing
'pw%rd since the l%te *++!s.
Ozone la/er will re)o*er 3,ll/ b/ 20?D:; an- CEC re-,)tion
Eirt' 10 ONi%ll, +/2*/*!, 6B d%il& m%il, Ozone l%&er Kis no longer dis%ppe%ring %nd will ret'rn to 3'll
strength (& 2!4K, s%&s 6N report, http://www.sott.net/%rticles/show/2*=4**4Ozone4l%&er4is4no4longer4
dis%ppe%ring4%nd4will4ret'rn4to43'll4strength4(&42!44s%&s46N4report
#'e ozone la/er i( no longer -i(appearing an- )o,l- be ba)0 to 3,ll (trengt' b/ t'e mi--le o3 t'i(
)ent,r/+ :N ()ienti(t( 'a*e )on3irme-. #'e p'a(ing o,t o3 nearl/ 100 (,b(tan)e( on)e ,(e- in
pro-,)t( li0e re3rigerator( an- aero(ol( 'a( (toppe- t'e ozone la/er being -eplete- 3,rt'er+
alt'o,g' it i( not /et in)rea(ing+ a))or-ing to a new :nite- Nation( report relea(e- la(t wee0.
?omment: 2his w%s the 3orer'nner to m%n4m%de glo(%l w%rming. 2he& tried to convince 's th%t the ozone l%&er w%s dis%ppe%ring
(ec%'se o3 peopleKs 3ridges. Now th%t the ozone l%&er h%s replenished itsel3, the& c%n tell 's th%t their me%s'res to control o'r
choices were s'ccess3'l %nd th's pl%& the s%me g%me with Kglo(%l w%rmingK %0% m%n4m%de clim%te ch%nge. #emperat,re(
are pl,mmeting in time 3or t'em to )ongrat,late t'em(el*e( on (,))e((3,ll/ Fre-,)ing )arbon
emi((ion(2F 2his sel34st&led Qs'ccessQ will sp'r them on to incre%se the dr%coni%n me%s'res 'ntil millions, i3 not (illions more,
%re st%rving %nd 3reezing to de%th. 2he models 'sed to prod'ce these res'lts %re entirel& sel34re3erencingG ver& little empiric%l
me%s'rements t%0en 3rom the re%l world %re %ct'%ll& 'sed in the prod'ction o3 these reports, which %re thinl& disg'ised polic&
doc'ments m%s5'er%ding %s scienti3ic discover&. >nd it cl%imed th%t intern%tion%l e33orts to protect the ozone l%&er h%s %verted
millions o3 c%ses o3 s0in c%ncer worldwide2 #'e ozone la/er o,t(i-e t'e polar region( i( proGe)te- to re)o*er
to pre<11D0 le*el( b/ 20?D+ alt'o,g' t'e ann,al (pringtime ozone 'ole o*er t'e Antar)ti) i( not
e9pe)te- to re)o*er ,ntil 20C=2 Ozone in t'e (trato(p'ere i( important be)a,(e it ab(orb( (ome o3
t'e S,n>( -angero,( ,ltra*iolet ra-iation2 2he report, p'(lished @ointl& (& 6N.- %nd the 6N Corld ,eteorologic%l
Org%niz%tion (!4O& i( t'e 3ir(t )ompre'en(i*e ,p-ate in 3o'r &e%rs on t'e ;ienna Con*ention 3or t'e
%rote)tion o3 t'e Ozone La/er an- t'e 4ontreal %roto)ol p'a(ing o,t )'emi)al( w'i)' a))elerate
bot' ozone la/er -amage an- )limate )'ange2 K)t (the -rotocol$ h%s protected the str%tospheric ozone l%&er 3rom
m'ch higher levels o3 depletion (& ph%sing o't prod'ction %nd cons'mption o3 ozone depleting s'(st%nces,K s%id the report. 2he
report w%s written %nd reviewed (& 1!! scientists %nd l%'nched on the 6N )ntern%tion%l #%& 3or the -reserv%tion o3 the Ozone
;%&er. Gi*en t'at man/ (,b(tan)e( t'at -eplete t'e ozone la/er are al(o potent green'o,(e ga(e(+
t'e 4ontreal %roto)ol >pro*i-e- (,b(tantial )o<bene3it( b/ re-,)ing )limate )'ange+> it a--e-2 "n
2010+ re-,)tion( o3 ozone<-epleting (,b(tan)e( a( a re(,lt o3 t'e %roto)ol+ were 3i*e time( larger
t'an t'o(e targete- b/ t'e H/oto %roto)ol+ t'e green'o,(e emi((ion( re-,)tion treat/. KCitho't the
,ontre%l -rotocol %nd its %ssoci%ted Iienn% ?onvention %tmospheric levels o3 ozone4depleting s'(st%nces co'ld h%ve incre%sed
ten3old (& 2!=!,K ,r Steiner s%id. K2his in t'rn co'ld h%ve led to 'p to 2! million more c%ses o3 s0in c%ncer %nd *1! million more
c%ses o3 e&e c%t%r%cts, not to spe%0 o3 d%m%ge to h'm%n imm'ne s&stems, wildli3e %nd %gric'lt're.K
Ozone la/er impro*ing< nation( wor0ing toget'er to (a*e it2
Step'en 11 O#%vid, 8/28/**, 9ro'nd :eport, Ozone l%&er recover&,
http://www.gro'ndreport.com/7e%lth"%nd"Science/Ozone4;%&er4:ecover&/2+1+!+P
>w%& 3rom the theor& th%t depleted p%rts o3 the Ozone ;%&er will (e n%t'r%ll& rep%ired in the middle o3 the 2*st cent'r&, % developing
rese%rch wor0 on Ozone 7ole :ecover& presents %n %rti3ici%l sol'tion (e3ore the d%tem%r0. #'e ozone la/er i( a (pa)e o3
ga( 3o,n- in a la/er o3 t'e Eart' atmo(p'ere, the str%tosphere, *+440m %(ove se% level. -hotochemic%l re%ctions
involving ozone g%s %t the ozone l%&er helps to protect pl%net .%rth 3rom d%ngero's 6ltr%violet r%di%tions. Some g%s molec'les
rele%sed in s'(st%nces 'sed (& h'm%ns once %t the ozone la/er rea)t wit' ozone mole),le( 3orming
1
888:N"I:ENESS
Georgetown Debate Seminar 2011
Ozone Depletion DA RBDD Lab
)ompo,n-( t'at )annot prote)t again(t 'arm3,l :ltra*iolet ra-iation(+ m%0ing the %mo'nts o3 'se3'l ozone
molec'les red'ced. #'i( lea- to w'at wa( ob(er*e- man/ /ear( ba)0 a( -epletion in part o3 t'e ozone
la/er 3on-l/ )alle- t'e ozone 'ole2 Sin)e t'i( t'reatene- man an- t'e en*ironment+ nation( agree-
to re-,)e t'e ,(e o3 (,b(tan)e( 'a*ing ga( mole),le( t'at are t'reat to t'e ozone la/erJ t'i(
ma-e ozone la/er prote)tion important till -ate2 Eor 3a)tor( an- )on-ition( o3 t'e ozone la/er+
()ienti(t( 'a*e po(ite- nat,ral re)o*er/ o3 lo(t ozone mole),le( an- 3a-e o,t o3 'arm3,l ga(e( in
,(e an- at t'at le*el to abo,t @0/ear( time2 #'i( 'a( t,rne- t'e 3o),( to prote)tion 3rom 'ere t'an
re)o*er/ 3rom t'ere2
4ontreal %roto)ol wa( (,))e((3,l< Ozone la/er i( reb,il-ing it(el32
"n-ia E9pre(( 11 ONews ch%nnel in )ndi%, =/*7/**, )., Ozone hole over >nt%rctic% on the ro%d to
recover& http://www.indi%neApress.com/news/ozone4hole4over4%nt%rctic%4on4the4ro%d4to4
recover&/7+*+8/P
Re(ear)'er( in A,(tralia 'a*e )laime- t'at t'e 'ole in t'e ozone la/er o*er Antar)ti)a i( on t'e
roa- to re)o*er/+ 22 /ear( a3ter t'e 4ontreal %roto)ol to (%n chloro3l'oroc%r(ons (?<?s$ %nd rel%ted ozone4
destro&ing chemic%ls )ame into 3or)e. #'e team i( t'e 3ir(t to -ete)t a re)o*er/ in ba(eline a*erage
(pringtime ozone le*el( in t'e region. F" t'in0 t'i( i( t'e 3ir(t )on*in)ing ob(er*ationall/<-eri*e-
e*i-en)e o3 t'e ozone rebo,n-+F t'e Nat,re B,ote- A-rian 4)Donal-, %n %tmospheric scientist %t the
6niversit& o3 ?%nter('r& in ?hristch'rch, New Ue%l%nd, a( (a/ing. F"t>( t'e 3ir(t w'ere t'e (tati(ti)al (igni3i)an)e
i( 'ig' eno,g'+ an- /o, )an (ee t'e pattern well eno,g'+ t'at /o, 3eel )om3ortable in belie*ing it+F
%dded ,c#on%ld. 2he res'lts o3 ,'rr& S%l(&, %n environment%l scientist %t ,%c5'%rie 6niversit& in S&dne&, >'str%li%, reve%led %
3%st decline in ozone levels 'ntil the l%te *++!s, then % slow re(o'nd th%t closel& m%tches wh%t theoretic%l c%lc'l%tions h%d
predicted, s%id #%vid B%rol&, % clim%te scientist %t the 6niversit& o3 ,el(o'rne, >'str%li%. Q"t i( t'e (ort o3 re(,lt t'at wa(
e9pe)te-+ b,t i( t'e 3ir(t to pro*i-e -ete)tion o3 an in)rea(e in Antar)ti) ozone le*el(,Q he s%id. S%l(&Ks
d%t% reve%l th%t %ver%ge springtime >nt%rctic ozone levels h%ve %lre%d& recovered (& *= percent since the l%te *++!s. 7owever,
pro@ecting 3orw%rd, n%t'r%l we%ther4rel%ted 3l'ct'%tions me%n th%t even %s l%te %s 2!=, ozone will still drop (elow *+! levels 3or %t
le%st one &e%r in ever& *!.
Ozone -epletion i( t'e t'ing o3 t'e pa(t< -ra(ti)all/ impro*ing now2
GGZ 11 O>;.V+ <O6N#.: >N# -:),>:E ?ON2:)F62O: 2O 9O 9:..N U)N., 8/*+/** +
K#.-;.2)ON O< 27. OUON. ;>E.: OI.: >N2>:?2)?> )S > 27)N9 O< 27. ->S2
722-://CCC.9O9:..NU)N..?O,/#.-;.2)ON4OUON.4;>E.:4>N2>:?2)?>/P
Depletion o3 t'e ozone la/er abo*e Antar)ti)a ma/ now be in re*er(al2 Re(ear)'er( in A,(tralia
belie*e t'e/ 'a*e -ete)te- a ('rin0ing o3 t'e ozone 'ole a 3,ll -e)a-e be3ore t'e/ e9pe)te- to.
2h%n0s to the ,ontre%l -rotocol in *++, an international -e)i(ion to ),rb pro-,)tion o3 ozone -epleting
)'emi)al(+ t'e ozone la/er now appear( to be re)o*ering2 6nder the ,ontre%l -rotocol, t'e ,(e o3
)'loro3l,oro)arbon( CEC(&+ a on)e pop,lar re3rigerant an- maGor )ontrib,tor to t'e -epletion o3
t'e ozone la/er+ wa( )ompletel/ banne-2 Chile this does seem to (e good news, not %ll scientists %re convinced (&
the d%t%. )n %ddition, the >rctic recentl& eAperienced % thinning o3 the ozone l%&er. 2he ozone l%&er is import%nt (ec%'se it helps to
minimize 6IF r%di%tion, s'n('rns %nd s0in c%ncer. Re)entl/+ it wa( -i()o*ere- t'at w'ale( were getting
e9treme (,nb,rn( -,e to ozone la/er -epletion2 #'e ozone la/er i( not e9pe)te- to 3,ll/ re)o*er
,ntil t'e /ear 20C02 $owe*er+ t'e progre(( ma-e in a--re((ing t'i( problem pro*e( t'at
international )ooperation in ta)0ling a global en*ironmental i((,e )an /iel- *er/ po(iti*e re(,lt(2
10
Georgetown Debate Seminar 2011
Ozone Depletion DA RBDD Lab
S%ACE LA:NC$ :N"I:ENESS
La,n)'e( are ,niB,e 6 -e)lining now+ man/ 3ail+ an- t'e A33 i( a m,)' 'ig'er
per)entage o3 o*erall la,n)'e( t'an /o,.- t'in0
#'ai %re(( Report( H >pril , 2!11 H leAis
>ltho'gh the worldwide n'm(er o3 l%'nches declined 3or the 3irst time since 2!!8 (down 3rom 7 in 2!!+ to 74
in 2!*!$, the n'm(er o3 p%&lo%ds incre%sed ('p 3rom *** to **$, the report s%id. :'ssi% led with 1* l%'nches, 3ollowed (&
the 6.S. %nd ?hin%, tied %t *= l%'nches e%ch, m%r0ing the 3irst time ?hin%Ks l%'nch r%te m%tched the 6nited St%tesK. #espite
the growth in the n'm(er o3 n%tions with sp%ce interests, no new n%tions entered the l%'nch ('siness, %ltho'gh So'th
Bore% cond'cted % second 'ns'ccess3'l or(it%l l%'nch %ttempt.
Global (pa)e la,n)'e( are not t'at 'ig' 6 C@ la,n)'e( per /ear an- man/ -o not
rea)' t'e (trato(p'ere2
Elori-a Spa)e Report 710
()ntern%ll& 5'oting Sp%ce -olic& Online H http://sp%cereport.(logspot.com/2!*!/!*/@%n'%r&4*42!*!.html$
2here were 7= sp%ce l%'nches in 2!!+, cond'cted (& *! co'ntries (incl'ding .'rope/>ri%nesp%ce$. :'ssi% led the
p%c0 with 12 l%'nches (%ll s'ccess3'l$, with the 6.S. l%'nching 2= roc0ets (one o3 them 3%iled$. .'rope l%'nched seven
(%ll s'ccess3'l$, %nd ?hin% l%'nched siA (%ll s'ccess3'l$. D%p%n, )ndi%, )r%n, North Bore%, So'th Bore%, %nd )sr%el were %lso %mong
those who l%'nched (or %ttempted to l%'nch$ roc0ets into or(it.
11
Georgetown Debate Seminar 2011
Ozone Depletion DA RBDD Lab
NOR4AL 4EANS L"NH SA#ELL"#ES AEES&
Normal mean( 3or (atellite la,n)'e( to ,(e a m,)' larger la,n)' *e'i)le2
Brown 711
(9%r& H st%33 %t #iscover&/s 7ow St'33 Cor0sW%s in #iscover& m%g%zine, #iscover& ?h%nnelW 7ow
St'33 Cor0s H http://science.howst'33wor0s.com/s%tellite2.htm$
>ll s%tellites tod%& get into or(it (& riding on % roc0et or (& riding in the c%rgo (%& o3 the Sp%ce Sh'ttle. Sever%l
co'ntries %nd ('sinesses h%ve roc0et l%'nch c%p%(ilities, %nd s%tellites %s l%rge %s sever%l tons m%0e it s%3el& into
or(it on % reg'l%r (%sis.
12
888L"NHS
Georgetown Debate Seminar 2011
Ozone Depletion DA RBDD Lab
R:SS"AN LA:NC$ES L"NH
R,((ian la,n)'e( not -i33erent 6 t'e/.re al(o poll,ting
2he 4o()ow #ime( H,%rch 24, 11 ++
:'ssi% %nd other co'ntries th%t send roc0ets into sp%ce sho'ld protect the environment (& %dopting intern%tion%l
reg'l%tions limiting the n'm(er o3 l%'nches, % 3ormer presidenti%l science %dviser s%id 2'esd%&. >leAei E%(lo0ov, he%d
o3 the ?enter 3or .nvironment%l -olic&, s%id th%t poll'tion 3rom roc0et 3'el w%s % m%@or c%'se o3 d%m%ge
to the e%rthKs ozone l%&er, %nd th%t l%'nches %lso thre%tened the he%lth o3 people living 'nder roc0et 3light p%ths.
R,((ia ,nli0el/ to (wit)' to green 3,el( t'at -o not -eplete ozone
R,((ia L C"S 4ilitar/ !ee0l/ HOcto(er *7, 2!!D H leAis
.Aperts 3rom the ,ontre%l -rotocol on s'(st%nces th%t #eplete the Ozone ;%&er held % wor0ing meeting with
speci%lists 3rom the :'ssi%n Sp%ce >genc& (Roscosmos) %nd :'ssi%n sp%ce comp%nies in ,oscow, :oscosmos s%id in % press
st%tement posted on the %genc&Ks we(site. 2he eApertsK visit w%s preceded (& % decision m%de in 2!! %t the *+th meeting o3 the
,ontre%l -rotocol, which gr%nted :'ssi% 5'ot%s 3or prod'ction %nd cons'mption in the roc0et sp%ce ind'str& o3 ?<?**1
(chloro3l'oroh&droc%r(on$ in the %mo'nt o3 *4! metric tonnes in 2!! %nd *1! metric tonnes in 2!!+. )ntern%tion%l eAperts were
provided with m%teri%ls re5'ired 3or compl&ing with this decision, the st%tement s%id. >leA%nder ?h'l0ov o3 :oscosmos s%id
th%t, Qthe 'se o3 ?<?**1 in the :'ssi%n roc0et %nd sp%ce prod'ction technolog& ens're its high reli%(ilit&
proved (& h'ndreds %nd tho's%nds o3 s'ccess3'l l%'nches %nd tests.Q >n& ch%nge in the technolog& re5'ires % length&
process o3 %pprov%l th%t new technologies will not red'ce the reli%(ilit& %nd s%3et& o3 :'ssi%n sp%ce
roc0ets %nd will not %33ect intern%tion%l progr%ms, incl'ding piloted l%'nches to the )ntern%tion%l Sp%ce St%tion, s'pplies o3
:'ssi%n engines 3or 6.S. >tl%s4= cl%ss c%rrier roc0ets, %nd the l%'nch o3 % (ro%d r%nge o3 sp%cecr%3t (& :'ssi%n c%rrier roc0ets 3or
m%n& co'ntries, the :oscosmos o33ici%l s%id. 2hese progr%ms cover % long4term period %nd do not involve %
switch to new technologies %ltern%tive to the 'se o3 ?<?**1, which is 5'ite %n import%nt %spect, the
:oscosmos o33ici%l s%id. Q2his incl'des cost iss'es, cooper%tion (etween coll%(or%tors, %nd intern%tion%l o(lig%tions,Q he s%id.
1=
Georgetown Debate Seminar 2011
Ozone Depletion DA RBDD Lab
S%S L"NH
S-S does ins%ne ozone d%m%ge
Ro(( et al 1 (,%rtin :oss 2he >erosp%ce ?orpor%tion, ;os >ngeles , #%rin 2oohe& 6niversit& o3
?olor%do , ,%n3red -einem%nn 2he >erosp%ce ?orpor%tion, ;os >ngeles J -%tric0 :oss .m(r&4:iddle
>eron%'tic%l 6niversit& ;imits on the Sp%ce ;%'nch ,%r0et :el%ted to Str%tospheric Ozone #epletion
http://www.t%nd3online.com/doi/pd3/*!.*!!/*477782!+!27887 //#onnie$
9lo(%l 3leet l%'nch r%tes s'33icientl& l%rge to eAceed the !.2L threshold 3or an/ propellant t/pe mi9 are
not li0el/ wit'o,t re*ol,tionar/ )'ange( in t'e (pa)e in-,(tr/2 Ce c%nnot 0now when or how s'ch ch%nges
might come %(o't tho'gh serio's pl%nning %nd disc'ssions %re ongoing.18 I%rio's propos%ls 3or ver& l%rge sp%ce in3r%str'ct're
pro@ects, sp%ce to'rism, or :;Is with ver& high l%'nch r%tes h%ve (een serio'sl& proposed %nd signi3ic%nt reso'rces h%ve (een
invested. >ll o3 these propos%ls wo'ld res'lt in l%rge l%'nch vehicles with ver& high l%'nch r%tes (i.e., d%il&$ %nd so it is o3 interest to
ev%l'%te them (%sed on their imp%ct on the ozone l%&er. One o3ten disc'ssed concept is the 'se o3 Sol%r -ower S%tellite (S-S$
s&stems 3or electricit& prod'ction. > recent st'd&17 indic%tes th%t the re5'ired %nn'%l l%'nch dem%nd 3or %n
economic%ll& vi%(le S-S s&stem wo'ld (e %(o't 2= 0t per &e%r, over m%n& &e%rs, perh%ps inde3initel&.
<ig're 4 shows th%t this S-S l%'nch s&stem wo'ld (e constr%ined to 'se li5'id propell%nt s&stems in order to
ens're th%t #O1 rem%ins (elow the !.2L thresholdG %n S-S l%'nch s&stem co'ld not m%0e signi3ic%nt
'se o3 S:,s in the str%tosphere. Since we %re %(le to de3ine ;:. ozone loss in onl& %pproAim%te term,
we c%nnot r'le o't th%t even %n %ll li5'id propell%nt 3leet %t S-S l%'nch r%tes might res'lt in (igni3i)ant
global total ozone lo((+ -epen-ing on t'e a)t,al e33e)t o3 a (pe)i3i) LRE t/pe2 2he %m(ig'it& o3 S-S
l%'nch ill'str%tes the need 3or %n improved 'nderst%nding o3 roc0et emissions o3 %ll t&pes. Cith the c'rrent 0nowledge g%ps, we
c%nnot predict with %n& con3idence which (indeed, %n&$ l%rge l%'nch or sp%ce s&stems %re pl%'si(le with respect to ozone depletion.
1?
Georgetown Debate Seminar 2011
Ozone Depletion DA RBDD Lab
S$:##LES L"NH
S',ttle( rip 'ole(t'at )a,(e( e9tin)tion
#'oma( A (Cilli%m, is %n %w%rd4winning ?%n%di%n @o'rn%list speci%lizing in he%lth %nd environment
Scientist S%&s ?hemtr%ils, Sh'ttle ;%'nches .nd%ngering .%rth
http://www.chemtr%ils+**.com/docs/Sp%ceL2!Sh'ttleL2!;%'nch4OzoneL2!;%&er.htm //#onnie$
>3ter % &e%r or two, <inle& s%id, millions o3 tons o3 %l'min'm oAide in chemtr%ils %nd solid43'el roc0et eAh%'sts
3%lls downw%rd to 3orm % new (o'nd%r& l%&er (etween the troposphere %nd the str%tosphere %(ove.
>ccording to <inle&, these %l'min'm oAide deposits %re %llowing the troposphere where we live, %nd where
we%ther is 3ormed, to p'sh higher into % we%0ened str%tosphere. Storm clo'ds %re ch%r%cteristic%ll& 3l%t on their
%nvil tops (ec%'se the& %re hitting the (ottom o3 str%tosphere. >s the str%tosphere we%0ens, storm tops (ro%den %nd
rise. >s convection 'pdr%3ts drill 'pw%rds 3rom *1 to*4 to *= 0ilometers, more moist're is s'c0ed higher, where, <inle& eApl%ined,
incredi(l& low temper%t'res holds h%il 'p there (ecome (%se(%ll4size 0iller st'33X@'st li0e the monster h%il th%t
h%mmered >rizon%, stripping p%int o33 c%rs %nd c%'sing 3l%sh 3loods, in l%te D'l& 2!!8. #'ring the p%st three
dec%des, rese%rchers h%ve me%s'red % cooling o3 the str%tosphere %nd % w%rming o3 the lower troposphere. 2hese ch%nges co'ld
%33ect the height o3 the tropop%'se, the (o'nd%r& (etween the troposphere %nd the str%tosphere. S'ch % ch%nge co'ld, in t'rn,
%33ect the height o3 convection c'rrents within the troposphere, s'ch %s those %ssoci%ted with
th'nderstorms, %nd )o,l- po((ibl/ a33e)t t'e inten(it/ o3 t'o(e (torm(. )t might %lso %lter the positions
o3 the pl%netKs @et stre%ms %nd th's the movement o3 we%ther s&stems. Owww.msc4smc.ec.gc.c%P 2he 'pw%rds4
eAp%nding troposphere is especi%ll& inv%sive o3 the str%tosphere in the hot tropics, <inle& %dded, w'ere
t/p'oon( an- ',rri)ane( 3orm25 Comparing t'e )'emtrail an- (',ttle <('re--e- ozone la/er to Ka
tire being ero-e- to )ore+5 Einle/ warne- t'at an atmo(p'eri) K blowo,t 5 )o,l- be 3atal to li3e on
Eart' 2
1@
Georgetown Debate Seminar 2011
Ozone Depletion DA RBDD Lab
LA:NC$ ;E$"CLES L"NH
Sen-ing G,n0 into (pa)e li0e /o,r a33 relea(e( ton( o3 )'emi)al(t'e/ linger an-
re(,lt in )atal/ti) ozone -e(tr,)tion
Smit' an- Daniel 11 (2&rrel C. Smith, Dr., -h.#. 2:C Sp%ce J .lectronics 9ro'p %nd Dohn :.
.dw%rds #%niel -ilson .nvironment%l ,%n%gement Fr%nch S'mm%r& o3 the )mp%ct o3 ;%'nch Iehicle
.Ah%'st %nd #eor(iting Sp%ce %nd ,eteorite #e(ris on Str%tospheric Ozone http://www.dtic.mil/cgi4
(in/9et2:#ocM;oc%tionN62JdocN9et2:#oc.pd3J>#N>#>4*41!8 //#onnie$
:oc0et l%'nches c%n %33ect the %tmosphere (oth in %n immedi%te, episodic m%nner, %nd in % long4term,
c'm'l%tive m%nner. 2he str%tosphere is %33ected immedi%tel& %3ter l%'nch %long the 3light tr%@ector& o3 the
l%'nch vehicle ( ;I$ 3or %(o't 8! to *2! seconds, the time re5'ired 3or the ;I to p%ss thro'gh the
str%tosphere. <ormed either directl& or indirectl& 3rom roc0et eAh%'st, r%dic%ls + (,)' a( Cl+ ClO+ $+ O$+
$O2+ NO+ an- NO2+ )an )a,(e t'e )atal/ti) -e(tr,)tion o3 (trato(p'eri) ozone. Other eAh%'st
compo'nds th%t pres'm%(l& co'ld le%d to ozone destr'ction either (& direct re%ction with ozone or (&
providing % s'r3%ce 3or heterogeneo's processes incl'de >l2O1 %nd ice (7%nning4;ee et %l., O*++8P$.
Chile no eAperiment%l evidence eAists %nd no wor0 to d%te h%s (een per3ormed, ;ohn et %l., O*+++P 'a(
(,gge(te- t'at (oot ma/ )ontrib,te to )atal/ti) ozone -e(tr,)tion in ro)0et pl,me(. 2he emissions
3rom some t&pes o3 l%'nch vehicles signi3ic%ntl& pert'r( the %tmosphere %long the l%'nch tr%@ector& %t %
r%nge o3 % 0ilometer or less 3rom the roc0et p%ss%ge. Ozone is tempor%ril& red'ced, %n %erosol pl'me
m%& (e prod'ced, %nd com('stion prod'cts s'ch %s NOA, chlorin%ted compo'nds, %nd re%ctive r%dic%ls
c%n tempor%ril& ch%nge the norm%l chemistr& %long the vehicle p%th.
1A
Georgetown Debate Seminar 2011
Ozone Depletion DA RBDD Lab
ROCHE# E:EL L"NH
S0wo sp%ce eAplor%tion le%ves the ozone tod%&Xincre%ses (& me%ns o3 sp%ce
eAplor%tion deplete.
Ro(( et al 1 (,%rtin :oss 2he >erosp%ce ?orpor%tion, ;os >ngeles , #%rin 2oohe& 6niversit& o3
?olor%do , ,%n3red -einem%nn 2he >erosp%ce ?orpor%tion, ;os >ngeles J -%tric0 :oss .m(r&4:iddle
>eron%'tic%l 6niversit& ;imits on the Sp%ce ;%'nch ,%r0et :el%ted to Str%tospheric Ozone #epletion
http://www.t%nd3online.com/doi/pd3/*!.*!!/*477782!+!27887 //#onnie$
?om('stion emi((ion( 3rom ro)0et la,n)'e( )'ange t'e )ompo(ition o3 t'e atmo(p'ere2 2he ch%nges
c%n (e divided into tr%nsient ch%nges ne%r the l%'nch site th%t %33ect %ir 5'%lit& in the lowermost
troposphere %nd long4term glo(%l ch%nges in the composition o3 the str%tosphere. )n this p%per, we %re
concerned with the long4term imp%ct o3 roc0et emissions on the glo(%l ozone l%&er. Ozone depletion h%s (een % critic%l
concern o3 n%tions %cross the glo(e 3or m%n& dec%des, %nd l%rge4sc%le ind'stri%l processes th%t %lter str%tospheric
composition %re %ssessed with respect to the %mo'nt o3 ozone depletion the& wo'ld c%'se. Chen %n %ssessment s'ggests
'n%ccept%(l& l%rge ozone loss 3or % p%rtic'l%r process, reg'l%tor& %ctions to limit or modi3& th%t process
might (e en%cted to protect the ozone l%&er.* )n this p%per, we consider roc0et com('stion emissions in the conteAt o3
ozone l%&er protection over the neAt sever%l dec%des. O'r c%lc'l%tions %re not % 3orm%l %ssessment, ('t %re % prelimin%r&
ev%l'%tion to identi3& the m%in %re%s o3 concern 3or the sp%ce ind'str&. 2hese concerns incl'de ris0s %ssoci%ted with overl&
conserv%tive reg'l%tion %nd % s'ggestion 3or new rese%rch in order to red'ce the li0elihood o3 s'ch reg'l%tion. Ci)erone an-
Ste-man2 3ir(t )on(i-ere- ro)0et emi((ion( a( a (o,r)e o3 ozone -epletion. S'(se5'ent st'dies
h%ve shown consistentl& th%t %t c'rrent l%'nch r%tes, ozone depletion 3rom roc0et eAh%'st is insigni3ic%nt
comp%red to other so'rces o3 ozone loss.1 )3 l%'nch r%tes %nd ozone depletion 3rom other so'rces rem%in
%t c'rrent levels, this %ssessment will not ch%nge. #'e potential e9i(t( t'at t'e -eman- 3or la,n)'
(er*i)e( )o,l- in)rea(e (igni3i)antl/ in t'e 3,t,re.4 ;%rge (3%ctors o3 ten or more$ incre%ses in l%'nch
dem%nd co'ld come %(o't 3or % v%riet& o3 re%sons, incl'ding n%tion%l decisions reg%rding sec'rit&, en'an)e-
(pa)e e9ploration, m%r0et 3orces %ssoci%ted with signi3ic%nt red'ctions in l%'nch costs, or the emergence o3 new
m%r0ets s'ch %s sp%ce to'rism, m%n'3%ct'ring, or sol%r power. >n%l&sts gener%ll& a((,me t'at i3 t'e )o(t
o3 a))e(( to orbit i( re-,)e- (,33i)ientl/+ t'en large+ new mar0et( will emerge 3or (pa)e in-,(tr/
an- t'e la,n)' mar0et. 2his development wo,l- be )on(i-ere- re*ol,tionar/, %nd it is not cle%r when or i3, this
might occ'r. Nevertheless, i3 (pa)e tran(port 3ollow( t'e 77normal.. -e*elopment pat' o3 tran(portation
te)'nolog/ enter( a perio- o3 )ontin,al e9pan(ion, it wo'ld (e necess%r& to reconsider the environment%l
conse5'ences o3 l%rge roc0ets, l%'nched o3ten. )n this p%per, we consider the implic%tion o3 s'ch signi3ic%nt incre%se in dem%nd 3or
or(it%l l%'nches on the glo(%l ozone l%&er.
Ro)0et( relea(e )'lorine ga(t'at 0ill( t'e ozone
National Geograp'i) 1 (:oc0et ;%'nches #%m%ge Ozone ;%&er, St'd& S%&s
http://news.n%tion%lgeogr%phic.com/news/2!!+/!4/!+!4*44roc0ets4ozone.html //#onnie$
F't when solid43'el roc0ets l%'nch, t'e/ relea(e )'lorine ga( -ire)tl/ into t'e (trato(p'ere, w'ere t'e
)'lorine rea)t( wit' o9/gen to 3orm ozone<-e(tro/ing )'lorine o9i-e(. )ncre%sed intern%tion%l sp%ce
l%'nches %nd the potenti%l commerci%l sp%ce tr%vel (oom co'ld me%n th%t roc0ets will soon emerge %s
the worst o33enders in terms o3 ozone depletion, %ccording to the st'd&, p'(lished in the ,%rch iss'e o3 the @o'rn%l
>stropolitics. )3 the sp%ce to'rism ind'str& %lone 3ollows m%r0et pro@ections, roc0et l%'nches %re Qgoing to r'n 'p %g%inst ,ontre%l
-rotocol,Q s%id st'd& co4%'thor #%rin 2oohe& o3 the 6niversit& o3 ?olor%do %t Fo'lder. 2he ,ontre%l -rotocol on S'(st%nces th%t
#eplete the Ozone ;%&er, %n intern%tion%l tre%t&, prescri(es me%s'res intended to h%sten the recover& o3 .%rthKs depleted ozone
l%&er.
Empiri)( pro*ero)0et( )a,(e immen(e -amage
4i0'ailo* ? (>.>. ,i0h%ilov E'.9. Sh%3er )nstit'te o3 ?osmoph&sic%l :ese%rch %nd >eronom&, 1*
;enin >ve., 877+* E%0'ts0, :'ssi% Ozone ;%&er %nd the <orm%tion o3 the Ozone 7ole
http://%rAiv.org/3tp/ph&sics/p%pers/!4!*/!4!**1=.pd3 //#onnie$
)n m& opinion, the ro)0et( are t'e maGor rea(on t'at -angero,( 3or ozone (,b(tan)e( penetrate into
t'e (trato(p'ere, %nd % so'rce o3 the ozone l%&er depletion . > shoc0 w%ve st%rting 3rom % roc0et or
3%lling 3inished o33 st%ge c%n 3orm % pec'li%r corridor (etween the troposphere %nd str%tosphere. <or
eA%mple, when the >meric%n roc0et Q>tl%s Q w%s l%'nched , % Qhole Q (the electron 3l'A w%s %s sm%ll %s one order o3
m%gnit'de in % circle o3 di%meter o3 sever%l h'ndreds o3 0ilometers$ wa( regi(tere- in t'e region o3 iono(p'ere E<
1C
Georgetown Debate Seminar 2011
Ozone Depletion DA RBDD Lab
la/er 2 >long th%t corridor the d%ngero's 3or ozone s'(st%nces m%& directl& penetr%te into the
str%tosphere omitting % process o3 ret'rn (%c0 on the gro'nd together with the precipit%tion on their w%&
to e5'%tor. > perchlor%te, which is % so'rce o3 chlorine %nd % p%rt o3 solid 3'el, penetr%tes into the str%tosphere directl& 3rom
roc0ets. !ater o3 great B,antit/ an- ot'er '/-rogen o9i-e( are al(o eGe)te- 3rom t'e ro)0et(.
6n3ort'n%tel&, ) not 0now eA%ctl& wh%t other d%ngero's 3or ozone s'(st%nces %re e@ected 3rom roc0ets. Note
the roc0et is 's'%ll& o3 the o(li5'e tr%@ector&, which eAtending in the %tmosphere sever%l tho's%nds o3
0ilometers %t %ltit'des o3 *!!42!! 0m, e@ects the g%s spr%&s %(ove the str%tosphere.
An-+ t'i( )a,(e( e9tin)tion b/ 0illing plan0ton
#'oma( A (Cilli%m, is %n %w%rd4winning ?%n%di%n @o'rn%list speci%lizing in he%lth %nd environment
Scientist S%&s ?hemtr%ils, Sh'ttle ;%'nches .nd%ngering .%rth
http://www.chemtr%ils+**.com/docs/Sp%ceL2!Sh'ttleL2!;%'nch4OzoneL2!;%&er.htm //#onnie$
NO %LANH#ON M NO %EO%LE On(o%rd % pl%nt th%t is mostl& se%w%ter, t'e mi)ro()opi) plant( t'at
,n-erpin all li3e in t'e o)ean( %re (eing st%rved %s glo(%l w%rming h%lts the vit%l 'p welling o3 n'trients
3rom the deep se%. Now, in)rea(e- (olar ra-iation (treaming t'ro,g' t'e 'ole( le3t ro)0et la,n)'e(
%nd %irline 3lights %re %lso 3r&ing the oce%nic pl%n0ton th%t provide most o3 o'r sp%ceship/s oA&gen, w'ile
()r,bbing ',ge amo,nt( o3 )arbon o,t o3 t'e atmo(p'ere2 KRe-,)ing t'e worl->( pop,lation( o3
p'/toplan0ton wo,l- (igni3i)antl/ impa)t t'e worl->( )arbon )/)le, w%rns the 9'%rdi%n, (& le%ving more
c%r(on in the %ir. O)ndependent D%n *+/!8G 9'%rdi%n >pr 27/!=P )n Novem(er 2!!=, st%rv%tion 3rom l%c0 o3 pl%n0ton led,
in t'rn, to c%t%strophic coll%pse in se% %nd (ird li3e %long >meric%Ks Northwest -%ci3ic se%(o%rd %nd in the
North Se%. O)ndependent Nov *1/!=P
1D
Georgetown Debate Seminar 2011
Ozone Depletion DA RBDD Lab
#$EN SANO KDA4AGE "S 4"N"4AL5
#'eir e* i( a (nap('ot+ e*en i3 t'e/ -on.t now in)rea(ing ,(e o3 ro)0et 3,el
t'reaten( t'e ozone
Ro(( an- Zittel C (,%rtin, is % .nvironment%l S&stems #irector%te, le%ds rese%rch on the
str%tospheric imp%ct o3 >ir <orce l%'nch vehicles. 7e holds % -h.#. 3rom the 6niversit& o3 ?%li3orni% %t ;os
>ngeles in .%rth %nd pl%net%r& sciences %nd h%s (een with >erosp%ce since *++. -%'l, is in the
-hotonics 2echnolog& #ep%rtment, s'pports #,S- in the %re%s o3 meteorologic%l lid%r %nd microw%ve
remote sensing %nd h%s cond'cted rese%rch in molec'l%r, %tomic, semicond'ctor, %nd s'r3%ce
spectroscopies. 7e holds % -h.#. in chemic%l ph&sics 3rom the 6niversit& o3 ?hic%go %nd h%s (een with
>erosp%ce since *+74 :oc0ets %nd the Ozone ;%&er
http://www.%ero.org/p'(lic%tions/crosslin0/s'mmer2!!!/!*.html //#onnie$
:)SO represents ('t one component o3 ongoing >erosp%ce %ctivities to provide the >ir <orce with c'tting4edge rese%rch %nd
technic%l g'id%nce on % wide r%nge o3 environment%l iss'esX3rom solvent chemistr& to toAic gro'nd clo'ds %nd ozone depletion.
<or its p%rt, the :)SO te%m %llows S,? to cl%im world4cl%ss scienti3ic eApertise with reg%rd to the in3l'ence
th%t roc0et emissions h%ve on .%rthKs ozone l%&er. 2he %dv%nces coming o't o3 :)SO %re m%0ing the >ir
<orce %nd the entire sp%ce4l%'nch comm'nit& con3ident th%t ozone loss 3rom (oth individ'%l %nd
collective l%'nches does not constit'te % signi3ic%nt environment%l h%z%rd. :)SO h%s proved th%t % low4
cost progr%m o3 ongoing pl'me4w%0e intercepts 'sing %ppropri%te instr'ment%tion c%n help resolve the
scienti3ic pro(lems s'rro'nding the iss'e. :)SO h%s %lso shown how @oining 3orces with other %gencies %nd ind'str&
incre%ses the scienti3ic ret'rn on investment 3or %ll interested p%rties. 2he d%t% %nd concl'sions 3rom the :)SO progr%m
rein3orce % pres'mption th%t roc0et emissions do not serio'sl& thre%ten the ozone l%&er %t the present
time. $owe*er, a( t'e (pa)e tr%nsport%tion in-,(tr/ grow(, %s new l%'nch s&stems %re introd'ced, an- a( t'e
ozone la/er re)o*er( 3rom pa(t -amage )a,(e- b/ now<banne- (,b(tan)e(+ the e33ect o3 roc0et
emissions on str%tospheric ozone is li0el& to (ecome % more visi(le iss'e. 2he sp%ce tr%nsport%tion
comm'nit& sho'ld contin'e to s'pport scienti3ic rese%rch e33orts to 3'll& 'nderst%nd the imp%ct o3 roc0et4
prop'lsion s&stems on the composition o3 .%rthKs n%t'r%l 'm(rell%, the ozone l%&er.
11
Georgetown Debate Seminar 2011
Ozone Depletion DA RBDD Lab
#$EN SANO KCECS O:#!E"G$ #$E L"NH5
#'at.( all abo,t to )'ange+ t'e lin0 o,tweig'(
Smit' an- Daniel 11 (2&rrel C. Smith, Dr., -h.#. 2:C Sp%ce J .lectronics 9ro'p %nd Dohn :.
.dw%rds #%niel -ilson .nvironment%l ,%n%gement Fr%nch S'mm%r& o3 the )mp%ct o3 ;%'nch Iehicle
.Ah%'st %nd #eor(iting Sp%ce %nd ,eteorite #e(ris on Str%tospheric Ozone http://www.dtic.mil/cgi4
(in/9et2:#ocM;oc%tionN62JdocN9et2:#oc.pd3J>#N>#>4*41!8 //#onnie$
)n %ddition, while chloro3l'oroc%r(on (?<?$ emissions %re responsi(le 3or the l%rgest 3r%ction o3 glo(%l O#?, ?<?
's%ge will (e c'rt%iled sh%rpl& in the ne%r 3't're %nd the e33e)t o3 %ORS 3rom la,n)' *e'i)le( i(
e9pe)te- to in)rea(e. ?<? rele%se h%s (een estim%ted to %dd 1!! 0ilotons o3 %ctive chlorine to the
str%tosphere %nn'%ll& (-r%ther et %l., O*++!P$. N%t'r%l so'rces o3 str%tospheric chlorine %re ten to one h'ndred
times sm%ller (:owl%nd O*++1P, ,%n0in et %l., O*+1P, ,%rtin O*++4P$.
4o(t re)ent (t,-ie( pro*e
:ni*er(e #o-a/ 1 (Cill :oc0et ;%'nches #eplete the OzoneM
http://www.'niversetod%&.com/24*2/will4roc0et4l%'nches4deplete4the4ozone/ //#onnie$
> new st'd& predicts th%t .%rth/s str%tospheric ozone l%&er will s'33er signi3ic%nt d%m%ge 3rom 3't're
'nreg'l%ted ro)0et la,n)'e(. 2he st'd& provides % m%r0et %n%l&sis 3or estim%ting 3't're ozone l%&er
depletion (%sed on the eApected growth o3 the sp%ce ind'str& %nd 0nown imp%cts o3 roc0et l%'nches. 2he
incre%se in l%'nches co'ld c%'se ozone depletion th%t event'%ll& )o,l- e9)ee- ozone lo((e( 3rom
CEC( (chloro3l'oroc%r(ons$ which were (%nned in the *+!Ys. >s the roc0et l%'nch m%r0et grows, so will ozone4destro&ing roc0et
emissions, s%id -ro3essor #%rin 2oohe& o3 ?64Fo'lder/s %tmospheric %nd oce%nic sciences dep%rtment, % mem(er o3 the
st'd&. )3 le3t 'nreg'l%ted, roc0et l%'nches (& the &e%r 2!=! co'ld res'lt in more ozone destr'ction th%n
w%s ever re%lized (& ?<?s. 2he st'd& s%&s more re(ear)' ('o,l- be -one on 'ow -i33erent ro)0et(
a33e)t t'e ozone be3ore impo(ing (tri)ter reg,lation( on )'emi)al( ,(e- in ro)0et 3,el(2 ?'rrent
glo(%l roc0et l%'nches deplete the ozone l%&er (& no more th%n % 3ew h'ndredths o3 * percent %nn'%ll&, s%id 2oohe&. F't a( t'e
(pa)e in-,(tr/ grow( an- ot'er ozone<-epleting )'emi)al( -e)line in t'e Eart'.( (trato(p'ere+
t'e i((,e o3 ozone -epletion 3rom ro)0et la,n)'e( i( e9pe)te- to mo*e to t'e 3ore3ront2
>nd, 5'%li3ied consens's goes neg%tive
Ro(( et al 1 (,%rtin :oss 2he >erosp%ce ?orpor%tion, ;os >ngeles , #%rin 2oohe& 6niversit& o3
?olor%do , ,%n3red -einem%nn 2he >erosp%ce ?orpor%tion, ;os >ngeles J -%tric0 :oss .m(r&4:iddle
>eron%'tic%l 6niversit& ;imits on the Sp%ce ;%'nch ,%r0et :el%ted to Str%tospheric Ozone #epletion
http://www.t%nd3online.com/doi/pd3/*!.*!!/*477782!+!27887 //#onnie$
2he recover& o3 the ozone l%&er,*1 while % 3%vor%(le development, i( moti*ation to be )on)erne- abo,t
ozone -epletion )a,(e- b/ ro)0et emi((ion( o*er t'e ne9t (e*eral -e)a-e(2 2he event'%l elimin%tion o3
the m%@or so'rces o3 ozone loss (th%t is, O#Ss$ r%ises the 5'estion: Cill so'rces o3 ozone loss c'rrentl& considered
sm%ll, s'ch %s roc0et emissions, event'%ll& (e scr'tinized more closel& (& the str%tospheric protection
comm'nit&M*4 2his wo'ld p%rtic'l%rl& %ppl& to roc0et emissions i3 dem%nd 3or l%'nch services incre%ses in coming dec%des, @'st
%s other so'rces o3 ozone loss decre%se d'e to the s'ccess o3 the ,ontre%l -rotocol. )n %ddition, revisions
in o'r 'nderst%nding o3 emissions, str%tospheric processes, or the introd'ction o3 new propell%nts on %
l%rge sc%le (h&(rid roc0ets, 3or eA%mple$ m%& c%'se ch%nges in the estim%ted ozone loss 3or % given
l%'nch r%te.
20
Georgetown Debate Seminar 2011
Ozone Depletion DA RBDD Lab
#$EN SANO KE4"SS"ONS S#AN "N #$E S#RA#OS%$ERE5
#'at (till trigger( o,r impa)t
Smit' an- Daniel 11 (2&rrel C. Smith, Dr., -h.#. 2:C Sp%ce J .lectronics 9ro'p %nd Dohn :.
.dw%rds #%niel -ilson .nvironment%l ,%n%gement Fr%nch S'mm%r& o3 the )mp%ct o3 ;%'nch Iehicle
.Ah%'st %nd #eor(iting Sp%ce %nd ,eteorite #e(ris on Str%tospheric Ozone http://www.dtic.mil/cgi4
(in/9et2:#ocM;oc%tionN62JdocN9et2:#oc.pd3J>#N>#>4*41!8 //#onnie$
2he str%tosphere eAch%nges m%ss with the troposphere (ene%th it %t % rel%tivel& low r%te. Cith no r%ino't or other remov%l
mech%nisms, the roc0et com('stion prod'cts c%n ('ild 'p in the str%tosphere over time i3 there is %
s'33icient l%'nch r%te. Chen deposited into the str%tosphere, ide%ll& sized p%rtic'l%te (!.*= to !.4 microns
in size$ s'ch %s %l'min% %erosols c%n persist 3or months %nd circle the glo(e. Aero(ol( t'at e9i(t in t'e
(trato(p'ere )an a((i(t in )atal/zing t'e -e(tr,)tion o3 ozone2
21