!"#$ &'$()"#* +,"#* !"#$-.' /#$ !0,- 1'234/.

(









Bi. Tom Ackei

Aishiya Boseyni Chime



Sustainable Eneigy Solution lab, Nechanical Engineeiing Bepaitment
Noithein Aiizona 0niveisity, Flagstaff, AZ 86uu1
}uly, 2u11



















2

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The economic loss oi gain in winu powei investment is paitly uepenuent on how well the
eneigy piouuction is estimateu befoie the installation of the winu tuibine. The most
poweiful tool useu foi this analysis is winu moueling softwaie. In the Sustainable Eneigy
Solution lab (SES) at Noithein Aiizona 0niveisity (NA0), WinuPio anu WAsP winu
moueling softwaie have been available since 2uu6. These tools have been useu to mouel
the winu flow ovei simple oi complex teiiain, cieate winu statistics in teims of iepoits,
geneiate winu maps, anu pieuict the output of iesiuential oi commeicial winu tuibines.
@67 <ABC?:8DC1
In spiing 2uu9, Aiizona Public Seivice (APS) funueu SES to auuiess aspects of small,
uistiibuteu winu eneigy that of aie inteiest to APS in Flagstaff, AZ. Following objectives
have been iuentifieu foi Task S (Noueling of winu eneigy potential foi uistiibuteu, small
winu tuibine installations):
Cieate a winu flow mouel using WinuPio anu WAsP
Pieuict the eneigy output of a small winu tuibine anu compaie to the actual eneigy
piouuction
Compaie winu speeu pieuictions to met towei uata
Cieate winu iesouice maps of Boney Paik at 1u anu Su meteis
E67 1<F:!0;C
WinuPR0 is a winu moueling softwaie cieateu by ENB useu to uesign anu plan single winu
tuibines anu winu faims. This softwaie consists of seveial mouules which means only
neeueu mouules aie chosen anu paiu foi. At SES, eight uiffeient mouules aie available
which enables WinuPR0 to cieate winu statistics, peifoim simple oi complex eneigy
calculations, anu geneiate iesouice maps. WAsP is among these mouules anu is puichaseu
sepaiately fiom RIS!.
WinuPR0 is useu as the base to impoit all uata into the piogiam anu WAsP is the solvei
anu is in chaige of winu oi eneigy simulation anu geneiation of iesouice maps. WAsP uses
the lineai atmospheiic mouel to extiapolate winu climate uata within a iegion by
consiueiing oiogiaphy anu ioughness. This mouel uses lineai components of Naviei-Stokes
equations to solve foi winu speeu at uiffeient locations.
G67 -;<?C=>;C
G65 <H(.H"(4
In oiuei to cieate winu anu eneigy mouels of an aiea using WinuPio anu WAsP, the
cooiuinates, winu uata, anu maps aie impoiteu to WinuPio. WAsP uses these sets of uata to
S

geneiate winu statistics. Along with the powei cuive, WAsP is able to cieate outputs.
Summaiy of a pioceuuie is shown in Figuie 1.


F"*+.( 5I !"#$ J'$()"#* K.'L($+.( +,"#* !"#$-.' /#$ !0,-
G6@ :<-< J/K /#$ 4"#$ =/3/
When this pioject was peifoimeu, theie weie
no met toweis installeu on Boney Paik aiea
wheie the winu mouel was about to uevelop.
(Bowevei, on u62S2u1u, a met towei was
installeu at Nova Kinetics on highway 89).
Theiefoie, one to foui yeais of winu uata was
impoiteu fiom 7 uiffeient met toweis aiounu
Flagstaff with anemometeis installeu at
uiffeient heights such as:
u1SuAnueison Canyon at 1u, Su m
uSu6 uiay Nountain at 1u, Su m
u7u2 uiay Nountain at 1u, Su, Su m
7982 uiay Nountain at 48, S9 m
7984 uiay Nountain at 48, S9 m
uSuS Nesa Butte at 1u, Su, Su m
SS21 Babbit at 1u, Su, Su m
Figuie 2 iepiesents the T0P0 map of Flagstaff
anu suiiounuing along with met toweis useu
F"*+.( @I :<-< J/K '2 F)/*,3/22 /#$ ,+..'+#$"#*
4

foi this ieseaich. The 4-uigit numbeis aie useu to uistinguish met toweis. Winu speeu anu
uiiection aie measuieu eveiy seconu with the aveiage anu stanuaiu ueviation iecoiueu
eveiy ten minutes anu saveu on uata chips. Bata fiom the chips is then expoiteu as text
files anu impoiteu to WinuPio.
G6E M("*N3 ?'#3'+. O"#(,
Elevation uata is uefineu in WinuPR0 in teims of height contoui lines. These lines aie
geneiateu by impoiting Bigital Elevation Nouel (BEN) files of uiffeient counties of Aiizona
to ulobal Nappei softwaie anu expoiting them as a shape file (.shp) which is ieauable by
WinuPR0. 0nce this file is impoiteu to WinuPio, this softwaie peifoims TIN tiiangle
calculations anu uisplays them on the scieen. Figuie S shows the BEN file, contoui lines,
anu the TIN tiiangles of the aiea.







G6G ;'+*N#(,,
Winu piofile is uepenuent on the ioughness of the
suiface. Tuibulence incieases when theie is a change in
ioughness. This changes the height of the inteinal
bounuaiy layei is uemonstiateu in Figuie 4. Theiefoie,
ioughness is classifieu in uiffeient categoiies anu is
given a ceitain length. WinuPio enables the usei to
cieate uiffeient aieas anu it associates uiffeient colois
to appiopiiate ioughness lengths as shown in Table 1.
Each ioughness length is
!
!"
!! of the actual length of
elements. Figuie S piesents the ioughness map of
Flagstaff.



F"*+.( GI8#2)+(#L( '2 .'+*N#(,, '# P'+#$/.Q )/Q(.
F"*+.( RI ;'+*N#(,, J/K '2 F)/*,3/22
F"*+.( EI =C& 2")( /#$ N("*N3 L'#3'+. )"#(, '2 F)/*,3/22 /#$ ,+..'+#$"#*
S








G6R !"#$ 13/3",3"L,
0nce winu uata fiom all met toweis aie impoiteu to WinuPio, winu statistics aie cieateu
foi each site anu aie saveu as ".wws" files anu can be useu in winu anu eneigy calculations.
In oiuei to cieate winu statistics foi a site with unknown winu uata, WAsP uses the known
winu statistics anu extiapolate that uata baseu on the height anu ioughness changes fiom
the known to unknown sites. The closei the known winu uata site is to the unknown site,
WAsP assigns highei weight to that site foi winu statistics pieuiction compaieu to othei
sites.
Foi example, uiay Nountain u7u2 winu statistics aie useu to geneiate winu statistics foi
Schaif sites. Figuie 6 piesents the Weibull uistiibution of uiay Nountain u7u2 in blue anu
Schaif's in gieen. Foi this pioject, all seven met towei uata was useu to geneiate winu
statistics foi Schaif site.








G6S -'4(. L+.H(
Powei cuive of SkystieamS.7 was cieateu in WinuPio by inputting the winu speeu anu
expecteu powei output. This cuive is uisplayeu in Figuie 8.
:/P)( 5I ;'+*N#(,, )(#*3N /#$ L')'. /,,'L"/3($ 4"3N (/LN /.(/
3QK( "# !"#$-.'
F"*+.( SI !("P+)) $",3."P+3"'# '2 T./Q &'+#3/"# 7U7@ /#$ 1LN/.2 ,"3(,
F
i
e
q
u
e
n
c
y

(
%
)

Winu speeu (ms)
uiay Nountain u7u2
Schaif's site
6









0nce the winu statistics foi all sites weie geneiateu anu powei cuive was impoiteu, WAsP
solvei geneiateu winu anu eneigy calculations at Schaif site . Foi this case, it is assumeu
that the aii uensity is about !!!"
!"
!
!
at the elevation of !"#" ! anu aveiage annual
tempeiatuie of !" ! .
R67 ;C1>O:1
R65 0##+/) C#(.*Q -.'$+L3"'#
0ne of the most impoitant outputs of WAsP calculations is the annual eneigy piouuction of
a winu tuibine. It was founu that selection of sites anu the height of met towei have
significant iesult on the annual eneigy piouuction. Theiefoie, the following thiee cases
weie consiueieu.
Net towei uata '#)Q /3 57 J(3(.
Net towei uata ovei 1u metei
Net towei uata at all heights
Eneigy calculation was peifoimeu foi each height oi met towei of these cases anu the
iesults aie piesenteu in the following chaits. The ieu bai iepiesents the actual eneigy
piouuction of Schaif site anu blue bais aie the pieuictions. In some cases, seveial met
toweis weie gioupeu anu useu foi eneigy pieuictions. These met toweis aie ciicleu in blue
on T0P0 maps next to the chaits.
Net towei uata '#)Q /3 57 J(3(.
Winu speeu (ms)
P
o
w
e
i

(
K
W
)

F"*+.( UI @6G V! 1WQ,3.(/J E6U K'4(. L+.H(
7



The actual eneigy piouuction of Schaif's Skystieam was 2.79 NWh in 2uu9-2u1u. Figuie 8
piesents the compaiison of actual anu pieuicteu eneigy piouuction using only 1u metei
winu uata. Inuiviuual met towei uata at 1u metei uiu not pieuict the annual eneigy
piouuction accuiately. In fact, winu uata fiom uiay Nountain uSu6 oveiestimateu the
annual eneigy piouuction significantly. Bowevei, the last case useu all 1u metei uata
available at 1u meteis anu was the best pieuiction. Eiioi calculateu foi this pieuiction is
u.S%. The laigest anu lowest pieuictions weie excluueu anu oveiall aveiage eiioi of these
pieuictions was about 2S%.
Net towei uata 'H(. 57 J(3(.




Figuie 9 inuicates that the highei the winu uata is collecteu compaieu to the uesiieu hub
height, the moie the eiioi is geneiateu foi pieuicting the eneigy output of a winu tuibine.

0 2 4 6
0130, 0506, 0702, 0503,
5521, 7982, 0503
0506, 0702, 7984
Anderson Canyon 0130
Mesa Butte 0503
Gray Mountain 0506
Gray Mountain 0702
Babbit 5521
Scharf's Skystream Actual
Annual Energy Production (MWh)
Comparison of Actual and Predicted Annual Energy
Production of Scharf's Wind Turbine
Average Error = 23%
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3
Over 48 m Wind Data from 0702, 7982,
7984, 0503, 5521
30 m Wind Data from 0130, 0506, 0702,
0503, 5521
Scharf's Skystream Actual Annual
Energy Production
Annual Energy Production (MWh)
Comparison of Actual and Predicted Annual Energy
Production of Scharf's Wind Turbine
F"*+.( XI ?'JK/.",'# '2 /L3+/) /#$ K.($"L3($ (#(.*Q K.'$+L3"'# +,"#* <9OY 57 &C:C; !89= =0:0
F"*+.( ZI ?'JK/.",'# '2 /L3+/) /#$ K.($"L3($ (#(.*Q K.'$+L3"'# +,"#* <9OY <DC; 57 &C:C; !89= =0:0
8

Net towei uata at /)) N("*N3,


Figuie 1u shows that winu uata fiom all heights of inuiviuual met toweis pooily estimateu
the eneigy piouuction of a winu tuibine. Bowevei, one of the gioupeu winu uata
(uSu6,u7u2,7984) estimateu the eneigy piouuction with the peicent eiioi of S.2%. 0nce
the highest anu lowest pieuictions weie excluueu, the oveiall aveiage eiioi in eneigy
pieuiction foi this case was S1%.
R6@ !"#$ 1K(($ -.($"L3"'#
In }une 2u1u, a met towei was installeu on highway 89 as
pait of Task S of APS pioject. This towei was eiecteu on
Nova Kinetics owneu by }im Coining. Two anemometeis
weie installeu at Su metei anu one at 2u metei. WinuPio
softwaie was useu to impoit this winu uata anu cieate
winu statistics. The aveiage winu speeu foi Nova Kinetics
is about 4.4 ms at Su meteis.
All sets of winu uata at Su meteis weie useu to pieuict
winu speeu at Nova kinetics in oiuei to be compaieu to
the actual winu speeu. These sites aie ciicleu in blue in
Figuie 11. This pieuiction estimateu the winu speeu of 4.6
ms which only has an eiioi of 4.S%.


0 2 4 6
Gray Mountain 0506
Anderson Canyon 0130
Mesa Butte 0503
Gray Mountain 0702
Babbit 5521
Gray Mountain 7982
Gray Mountain 7984
5521, 7982, 0503
0506, 0702, 7984
Scharf's Skystream Actual Annual
Annual Energy Production (MWh)
Comparison of Actual and Predicted Annual Energy
Production of Scharf's Wind Turbine
Average Error = 31 %
9'H/ V"#(3"L,
F"*+.( 57I ?'JK/.",'# '2 /L3+/) /#$ K.($"L3($ (#(.*Q K.'$+L3"'# +,"#* 0OO MC8TM:1
F"*+.( 55I :<-< J/K '2 F)/*,3/22 /#$ 3N(
)'L/3"'# '2 9'H/ V"#(3"L,
9

R6E !"#$ &/K,
Winu maps aie cieateu in WinuPio buy iunning seiies of automatic WAsP calculations foi a
giiu. Figuie 12 shows the winu iesouice map of Flagstaff anu suiiounuing. This map shows
winu speeu at 12 meteis (hub height of SkystieamS.7) in teims of uiffeient colois. All winu
uata sets at 1u meteis weie useu to cieate this map with the iesolution of 1uu metei.

F"*+.( 5@I !"#$ .(,'+.L( J/K '2 F)/*,3/22 /3 5@ J(3(., 4"3N 577 J(3(. .(,')+3"'#
1u

Figuie 1S piesents the winu map of Flagstaff at Su meteis. All winu uata at Su metei was
useu to geneiate this map with the iesolution of 1uu metei.

S67 ?<9?O>18<91
A winu mouel of Flagstaff anu suiiounuing was cieateu using WinuPio anu WAsP softwaie.
This mouel was then useu to pieuict eneigy piouuction of a Skystieam S.7 at Boney Paik
aiea using uiffeient sets of winu uata aiounu Flagstaff. These pieuictions weie then
compaieu to the actual eneigy piouuction of this winu tuibine. Compaiison of actual anu
11

pieuicteu eneigy piouuction ievealeu the following about WinuPio anu WAsP winu
moueling softwaie:
WAsP calculation is most accuiate when the heights of winu uata sets useu foi the
calculation aie close to the hub height of the winu tuibine.
0nce the height of the winu uata useu foi the pieuiction incieaseu highei than the
winu tuibine's hub height, eneigy pieuictions containeu moie eiioi. This may be
uue to pooi winu sheai calculation of WAsP softwaie.
Baseu on these iesults, all winu uata at Su metei was useu to pieuict the aveiage winu
speeu at Nova Kinetics. This pieuiction was then compaieu to the actual aveiage winu
speeu measuieu at Su meteis at Nova Kinetics. Seveial winu maps weie geneiateu using
the closest winu uata to the pioffeieu hub height anu weie piesenteu in Figuie BLAB anu
BLAB.
S67 ;CFC;9C?C1
(1) Nilsson, Kail. "Estimation of winu eneigy piouuction in ielation to oiogiaphic
complexity." (2u1u): 1-84. Web.
(2) Nielsen, Pei, }ens villausen, Stefan Chun, anu }on Kobbeiup. WinuPio. Fiist. 1. Aalboig,
Benmaik: ENB Inteinational AS, 2uu6. 14u-2u4. Piint.
(S) Twiuell, }ohn, anu Tony Weii. Renewable Eneigy Resouices. Seconu. 1. Abinguon, 0xon:
Tayloi anu Fiancis, 2uu6. 26S-S2S. Piint.
(4) Coibett, }.F., S. 0tt, anu L. Lanubeig. "The new WAsP flow mouel: a fast, lineaiizeu Nixeu
Spectial-Integiation mouel applicable to complex teiiain." Riso National Laboiatoiy,
Technical 0niveisity of Benmaik, Roskilue, Benmaik, n.u. Web. 1S Api 2u11